THE DAILY BRIEFING
|
NFC NORTH
|
|
CHICAGO
Apparently, the Bears would let your team take DE ROBERT QUINN off their hands. He had 18.5 sacks last season, just one so far in 2022. Bryan DeArdo of CBSSports.com:
After electing not to part with him this offseason, the Bears are shopping Pro Bowl pass rusher Robert Quinn ahead of the NFL’s trade deadline, according to Sportsline NFL Insider Jason La Canfora. The Bears have until Nov. 1 at 4 p.m. to execute a trade.
Quinn, 32, is in the middle of his third season in Chicago after inking a five-year, $70 million contract with the team back in 2020. He was selected to his third Pro Bowl in 2021 after tallying a career-high 18.5 sacks. Quinn has not produced at the same level this season, however, as he has just one sack through the season’s first six games.
The 14th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, Quinn spent his first seven seasons with the Rams, where he was named to two Pro Bowls and was an All-Pro in 2013. Quinn, who is just one of six active players with more than 100 career sacks, spent one season apiece in Miami and Dallas before signing his long-term deal with the Bears.
The Bears shouldn’t be having issues finding teams that are interested in acquiring Quinn. One of those teams could be the 5-1 Giants, who are currently tied for 19th in the NFL in sacks.
|
|
GREEN BAY
Ted Nguyen of The Athletic on whether or not QB AARON RODGERS was correct in calling for offensive simplification:
The Packers’ offense is struggling. After scoring 10 points at home in a loss to the Jets, quarterback Aaron Rodgers suggested that the offense needs to be simplified. When he was asked to clarify if he was talking about the scheme or game plans, Rodgers said he was referring to “all of it.”
“I don’t want to get too specific, and I’m not attacking anything. I just think that based on how we’ve played the last two weeks, I think it’s going to be in our best interest to simplify things for everybody … for the line, for the backs, for the receivers,” Rodgers said. “Especially with Cobby’s (Randall Cobb’s) injury, to simplify some things, and then maybe that’ll help us get back on track.”
Matt LaFleur’s scheme helped Rodgers win back-to-back MVP awards in 2020 and 2021, but this isn’t the first time that Rodgers has expressed frustration with it. As recently as this past offseason, Rodgers was candid about what he thought were flaws in the system on the “Pardon My Take” podcast. Rodgers seemed to take the diplomatic route by backtracking on “The Pat McAfee Show” on Tuesday, saying he meant players needed to simplify some things in their heads to execute better, but it’s worth going back to his offseason comments because they might be more revealing about some of the changes that he wants to see. We’ll go to the numbers and film to see if they back those proposals.
On “Pardon My Take,” Rodgers talked about how he grew up running and loving the West Coast offense, a timing-based scheme oriented around short passes. He mentioned marveling at how Peyton Manning operated with no motion.
“Just because he wanted to look at it and use his cadence variation to get movement and then be able to go with tempo as well,” Rodgers said of Manning playing without pre-snap motion. “When you have so much motion, it’s hard to get tempo going. It’s because you always got to make sure you’re set and you got a motion … maybe a double motion, maybe this thing, maybe this adjustment off of it. … I’m not telling you guys anything I wouldn’t tell (LaFleur). I got after him today because every freaking play there’s goddamn motion. I’m like, can we run one play without a motion and pass so we can get some tempo going? Because I like to switch the tempo.”
The heavy use of pre-snap motion is a staple of the Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay system from which LaFleur’s scheme is derived. It forces defenses to make quick adjustments on the fly and can get defenders’ eyes to look in the wrong direction. In 2019, ESPN’s Brian Burke found that pass plays with a player in motion at the snap earned 0.08 expected points added per play more than those without, which was a marked advantage. On designed run plays, the advantage was even greater (0.11).
However, like any trend, as defenses grow accustomed to seeing motion, it becomes easier to defend.
This season, the Packers’ offense has actually been worse on plays with motion, according to TruMedia. On run plays without motion, they rank fourth in EPA per play. On run plays with motion, they rank 24th. On dropbacks with motion, they rank 24th in EPA per play. On dropbacks without motion, they rank 21st. While I still believe using motion offers an advantage, it seems that Rodgers could be on to something.
The advantage for the quarterback in using less motion is that he has a clearer picture of the defense before the snap. With motion, the front and secondary can change depending on the adjustment they make to the motion. That means that the quarterback also has to process the change quickly and then make his reads accordingly. With less motion, quarterbacks have more time and freedom before the snap to change the play and change the tempo. Play calls have to be simpler when you want to run a no-huddle offense.
Rodgers is one of the best at diagnosing and adjusting before the snap, so it seems like it would be natural to let him use tempo more often. But according to TruMedia, since LaFleur became Green Bay’s head coach in 2019, the Packers rank 30th in no-huddle snaps (123). Coaches from the Shanahan/McVay tree hardly use tempo or go no-huddle.
Tempo is a tool that can potentially help this offense, but can the Packers’ young receivers handle communication in a no-huddle system? Maybe when the Packers have Sammy Watkins, who returned to practice this week, they could use tempo with their 12 personnel grouping (one running back, two tight ends) featuring Allen Lazard, Marcedes Lewis and Robert Tonyan.
“It’s a little frustrating when you grew up in the West Coast offense and your mindset is all about protection … and adjustments and different things,” Rodgers said on “Pardon My Take.” “When you’re playing in an offense that doesn’t have a lot of those things and maybe could use it at times, and also when it kind of (messes) up the protection schemes and lanes and identification sometimes, it just makes it … a little extra strenuous sometimes on the quarterback.”
Despite Rodgers’ complaints about the protection scheme, it’s difficult to argue with the results. Before this season, three of his top five seasons with the lowest pressure rates in his career occurred under LaFleur, including his best season in terms of pressure rate, which was last season. This season, the Packers’ offensive line has been drastically worse, but the issues seem to be about execution and communication rather than scheme.
“It really doesn’t matter what we do schematically,” LaFleur said when asked about Rodgers’ postgame comments. “If we don’t block better, it’s hard to do anything. And I think that was the No. 1 issue yesterday.”
Other issues with this offense are the lack of receiving talent and Rodgers missing passes he normally makes. The Packers are heavily feeling the losses of Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Adams is one of the best receivers in the NFL, and Valdes-Scantling provided a deep threat that this offense is sorely lacking. Lazard is a useful receiver who can block and get open underneath, but he shouldn’t be a No. 1 option. Rookie Romeo Doubs has flashed some potential, but he’s not a good route runner yet and struggles with drops.
This group of pass catchers is struggling to separate, and when they did get open against the Jets, Rodgers missed them. He was inaccurate on six passes, including some opportunities deep. Some of those misses might have been the result of Rodgers’ right thumb injury, but the margin for error is so small for this offense that Rodgers has to be his usual surgical self.
The Packers have the talent along the offensive line to improve, and maybe some shuffling and more time together will solve some of their issues. There may be an opportunity to add a talented pass catcher via trade or free agency, such as Odell Beckham Jr., but it’ll take time for any new acquisition to learn the offense. Schematically, Rodgers might have a point about using less motion because of the diminishing returns and the benefit of adding a tempo package for him, but again, playing up-tempo will be challenging for the Packers’ young receivers.
This group doesn’t look like it has the pieces to match the explosive units that LeFleur has had in the past, but there should be enough there for a much more efficient unit.
|
|
NFC EAST
|
|
WASHINGTON
The Commanders didn’t have enough money in their charitable foundation’s bank account to pay a 50/50 winner his prize. Isabel Gonzalez of CBSSports.com:
The concept of 50/50 raffle allows the winner to cash in half of the money raised, unless the check bounces. A Washington Commanders season-ticket holder recently experienced that downside, as he won the Commanders’ Charitable Foundation 50/50 raffle on Sept. 11 only for the team’s check to bounce when he tried to cash it later.
The story first became public during The Team 980’s “Russell & Medhurst” show Wednesday morning. A caller who identified himself as “Mike from Pennsylvania” told the story of his friend who won the raffle during the Commanders’ season opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The friend, Drew Shipley, waited more than a month for his prize. Shipley went on the show later that day and expressed his disappointment.
WUSA9, a TV station in Washington D.C. affiliated with CBS, talked to Shipley in more detail on Wednesday evening. Shipley, a season ticket holder, tweeted at the team twice to find out what was going on when he didn’t hear back from them after winning the raffle. He eventually received a FedEx Envelope with a check for $14,822 — half of the $29,645 pool — on Oct. 13. Days after attempting to deposit the check in his credit union, the fan was told the check had bounced and he was left with a $15 bad check fee.
After that story came out, a Commanders spokesperson confirmed go to WUSA9 that the check did not clear.
“We reached out directly to the fan as soon as we learned about it and have wired the money directly to his account, and apologized for the inconvenience,” the spokesperson wrote in an email to the TV station. “It was a bank error, and we are following up with the bank to learn why it happened and ensure it doesn’t happen again.”
Shipley described the whole situation as “quite maddening” and unprofessional.
– – –
Good news – EDGE CHASE YOUNG is getting close to a return. Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:
Commanders defensive end Chase Young‘s absence from the field could be coming to an end.
Young has been rehabbing the torn ACL that ended his 2021 season and word earlier this week was that he was set to meet with Dr. James Andrews in the coming days in hopes of being cleared to return to practice. John Keim of ESPN.com reports that the appointment is set for Sunday.
If Young gets the green light, he can begin practicing with the team next Wednesday and would have a three-week window to be activated. That could happen in time for Week Eight’s game against the Colts, but he’ll have to get on the field before such decisions can be made.
Young was the second overall pick of the 2020 draft. He has 70 tackles, nine sacks, six forced fumbles, and three fumble recoveries in 24 career games.
|
|
NFC SOUTH
|
|
TAMPA BAY
The DB has seen a lot of QBs sitting on the bench, blankly staring straight ahead during critical moments in a game, not up front on the line cheering on the defense – including QB TOM BRADY – and wondered about the lack of involvement and animation (we remember Jay Cutler on the exercise bike).
Now a QB is shown getting animated – and the media consensus seems to be Brady had not right to try to get things straightened out. We had Mike Florio opining that Brady, because of his Friday night absence, would be viewed by his OL as not having standing to critique them. But C ROBERT HAINSEY has no problem with the fiery Brady. Nick O’Malley of MassLive.com:
On Wednesday, one of the linemen who was on the receiving end of the expletive-filled verbal explosion said that he was all for his quarterback showing that sort of fire.
“I love that from him. I know we all love that from him,” second-year center Robert Hainsey told The Athletic’s Greg Auman. “It might look weird on TV, but that’s football. That’s what you want from great teammates and great leaders, and he’s the best there is.”
Cameras caught Brady yelling on the sidelines at his offensive line while the team’s offense fizzled against the Steelers. Tampa Bay would fail to score a touchdown until the fourth quarter, ending in a 20-18 loss that dropped them to 3-3 on the year.
Hainsey reportedly said that he wants his 45-year-old quarterback stepping up and demanding more from them.
“I want nothing else from a quarterback than that, than a guy willing to tell us what we need to do to step up,” Hainsey said, per Auman. “If he was just sitting there and not trying to get us going, he wouldn’t be who he is today.”
|
|
NFC WEST
|
|
SAN FRANCISCO
Kyle Shanahan has been taking a non-joyous trip down Memory Lane this week. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
The 49ers and Chiefs last met in a fairly significant game. They’ll get together again on Sunday at Levi’s Stadium.
“That we lost,” Shanahan said.
The 49ers lost after blowing a 10-point lead with less than seven minutes to go. Shanahan has had to re-live the trauma this week, as he prepares to face the Chiefs again.
“I hadn’t watched it for a while until these last two days, but yeah, I don’t like watching it, but this week it wasn’t about that,” Shanahan said. “I had to watch it for schematic reasons and what our history is together.”
Shanahan still has fond memories of the 2019 49ers.
“I love thinking of our team that year,” he said. “I felt like that year we had the best team in football, but we ended up being the second best because we didn’t get it done in the end.”
This time around, they’ll face an even more experienced version of quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
“[He’s] been in a lot more situations, more experience,” Shanahan said of Mahomes. “He was unbelievable then and he is unbelievable now.”
This time, the 49ers won’t have to worry about receiver Tyreek Hill. But Shanahan is still worried about the Kansas City offense.
“They’re missing the fastest guy on the planet, to me, but they have a lot of players all over and the quarterback spreads it around and they’re still just as effective,” Shanahan said.
Indeed they are. And both teams lost on Sunday, raising the stakes for a rematch that will break the 7-7 tie in the all-time series. Unless they tie.
|
|
LOS ANGELES RAMS
Stan Kroenke has agreed to pay $571 million of his own cash to pay off the City of St. Louis. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
He won’t pay the full $790 million, but he’ll be paying most of it.
Seth Wickersham of ESPN.com reports that NFL owners are expected to approve a resolution that will compel Rams owner Stan Kroenke to pay the $571 million in unallocated settlement proceeds to St. Louis, resolving the litigation arising from the relocation of Kroenke’s team.
The league already has collected $219 million from all NFL franchises. Kroenke wanted his partners to share the full amount of the settlement. His position was bolstered by sloppy wording of the relevant paperwork, along with a belief that the efforts of the Chargers and Raiders to push a competing stadium project gave St. Louis the blueprint for suing the Rams and the league.
The headline to the ESPN.com item is a little confusing. It reads “NFL to OK Stan Kroenke $571M payment to St. Louis.” As if Kroenke wants to do it. He doesn’t. His partners are making him do it. It’s not a happy resolution for Kroenke.
For some owners, it’s also not a good outcome. They believe Kroenke should foot the entire bill.
Ultimately, they’re all responsible. They all disregarded the NFL’s relocation policy in order to justify taking a team away from St. Louis and dropping it in L.A. They’re all guilty of allowing Kroenke to get what he wanted, at the expense of St. Louis.
Would some or many or most of the owners who voted to approve the move have declined absent a clear commitment by Kroenke to foot the bill if/when things go sideways? Yes. Still, they voted to approve a move that they arguably shouldn’t have approved. They allowed a team to escape its home market not because the home market was bad, but because Kroenke saw another market that he thought was better.
So while Kroenke perhaps should be financially responsible for the most or all of the settlement, every owner who voted to approve the relocation of the Rams is responsible for the outcome.
|
|
AFC WEST
|
|
KANSAS CITY
QB PATRICK MAHOMES says a 2nd Super Bowl win would mean more to him than his first. Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:
The Chiefs and 49ers have since played a preseason game. But Sunday will mark the first game of consequence since they met in Miami back in Feb. 2020.
So, naturally, Mahomes was asked about beating the 49ers in that Super Bowl and the mentality of trying to win one every year.
“I mean I’ve always wanted to try to compete for Super Bowls,” Mahomes said in his Wednesday press conference. “And then when you win one, you want to get back because you know how that felt. And now, I’ve known how it feels to lose too, so I obviously want to get back.
“But even looking back on that game and that team [they’re still a great football team that — a lot of that team is still there, and they’ve stayed together, and they’ve gotten better and better. So, I understand it’s going to be a challenge because I’ve played against them before and know how many great players they have on that defense.”
Mahomes was in his third season when the Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV, but just his second as a starter. He’d had immediate success in the league, winning the MVP in 2018 and then becoming a Super Bowl MVP a season later.
Now after losing a Super Bowl in 2020 and the AFC Championship Game in 2021, Mahomes said he’d think a little differently about accomplishing the ultimate goal.
“Yeah, I think I would appreciate it more now than I did back when I was young. That and winning the MVP early in my career. I think I just kind of thought that’s just what you did — you went out there and played football for coach [Andy] Reid and you win the MVP, and you win Super Bowls,” Mahomes said with a laugh.
“But now I see what the grind and being in there every single day and not succeeding and not winning the Super Bowl. I think if I had the chance to go out there and win another one, I think I’ll appreciate it even more.”
|
|
AFC NORTH
|
|
BALTIMORE
Two key Ravens did not practice on Wednesday:
@AdamSchefter
Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson was limited at practice today due to a hip injury and TE Mark Andrews did not practice due to a knee injury.
– – –
Does WR DeSEAN JACKSON still have “it”? He’s a Raven now. Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:
Veteran wide receiver DeSean Jackson is back in the NFL after signing to the Ravens practice squad this week and he’s spent the last couple of days getting to know his new team.
The hope is that Jackson will be able to provide the offense with another threat once he’s up to speed, so one relationship of particular importance will be with quarterback Lamar Jackson. The wideout said that their first conversations have left him with “a great feeling of how [Lamar Jackson] looks at it” and he added that he sees similarities to one of his teammates with the Eagles.
“I’ve been keeping my eye on Lamar for a little while now,” Jackson said, via the team’s website. “I see a lot of characteristics similar to Michael Vick. He beat some of his records so obviously he’s the new era of Michael Vick. Being able to play with Michael Vick, being able to come and play with Lamar, it’s a blessing for me. I’m very excited about that.”
|
|
PITTSBURGH
Concussed on Sunday, QB KENNY PICKETT was good to go and out at practice on Wednesday. Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:
Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett is in the concussion protocol, but it appears he’s already making good progress through it.
Pickett was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice, according to the team’s injury report. That’s a good sign for his potential availability for Week Seven, as the Steelers take on the Dolphins for Sunday Night Football.
“He looked good,” receiver Diontae Johnson said of Pickett’s Wednesday practice, via the team website. “He didn’t seem like nothing was wrong with him. He seemed locked in, ready to go for this week. Just normal Kenny out there bringing the same energy he brings every day. He looked good today. It didn’t seem like nothing was throwing him off, like he was fine throwing the ball.”
Head coach Mike Tomlin said on Tuesday that Pickett will start as long as he’s cleared.
The quarterback played 58 percent of the offensive snaps in the win over Tampa Bay before he was ruled out. He completed 11-of-18 passes for 67 yards with a touchdown.
The team also had positive news on safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee), who was a limited participant after missing Sunday’s game. Tight end Pat Freiermuth (concussion) was also a full participant.
Cornerback Cam Sutton (hamstring), cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring), linebacker Myles Jack (ankle), offensive lineman Mason Cole (foot/ankle), offensive lineman James Daniel (ankle), and defensive lineman Chris Wormley (ankle) were all limited
Receiver Steven Sims (hamstring) and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi (knee) did not practice. And cornerback Levi Wallace (concussion) was full.
If Pickett can practice on Wednesday, why was QB TEDDY BRIDGEWATER compelled to sit out until Friday last week? That’s the question from David Funones of the Ft. Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel:
@DavidFurones_
Can someone explain to me how Kenny Pickett was able to participate fully in practice on Wednesday while in concussion protocol from Sunday but Teddy Bridgewater, without a concussion and due to an alleged stumble, had to be limited until Friday last week?
|
|
AFC EAST
|
|
MIAMI
QB TUA TAGOVAILOA spoke to the media on Wednesday. Marcel Louis-Jacques ofESPN.com:
Speaking Wednesday for the first time since sustaining a concussion on Sept. 29, Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa said he remembers most of that night but lost consciousness after a hit that sent him to a hospital.
He was concussed in Miami’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4 when he hit his head on the ground while trying to extend a play, and was briefly hospitalized before being discharged and returning to Florida with the team after the game.
Tagovailoa said he doesn’t remember what happened immediately after hitting his head on the ground and losing consciousness but does remember being driven to the University of Cincinnati Medical Center via ambulance, as well as his trip back to Miami with his teammates early the next morning.
“I wouldn’t say it was scary for me at the time because there was a point where I was unconscious, so I couldn’t really tell what was going on,” he said. “When I did come to and kind of realized what was going on and what was happening, I didn’t think of anything long term or short term. I was just wondering what happened.”
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said Monday that it’s in the quarterback’s competitive nature to try to extend plays — but he spoke with Tagovailoa about recognizing when it’s time to concede and throw the ball away.
Tagovailoa said that although it’s always been his mindset to make something happen when he’s on the field, he will have to learn when to accept that a play is dead.
“Throwing the ball away hasn’t been something that I’ve done in the past really well,” he said. “Because I’m trying to make plays, and so just learning from that — if it’s not there, it’s OK to throw it away. It’s the longevity of me just being able to be the quarterback for this team and not try to make something out of nothing.
“Plays will come to us, and that’s kind of what our mantra for our offense is.”
Tagovailoa said the support he has received since the concussion stands out most to him about the events of the past few weeks.
Beyond the messages and tweets from fellow players around the league, Tagovailoa said his neighbors brought over baked goods, candies and notes and artwork from their kids — all of which, he said, made him and his family feel the support from his community.
What made his nearly two weeks away from football difficult, however, was having to stand by idly as the Dolphins skidded to a three-game losing streak in his absence. Tagovailoa was present throughout the facility while in concussion protocol and sought to help however he could. But it was frustrating not being able to help out on the field.
“There’s things you can do in the locker room to keep the guys encouraged, to keep the guys going motivated,” he said. “But it sucks. As a competitor, I want to be out there with the guys. I want to be able to go out there and help our guys win games. And that’s a terrible feeling that I could only watch from the sidelines.”
Tagovailoa cleared concussion protocol Saturday, although he was not active for the Dolphins’ game against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 6. He is preparing as the team’s starter this week for Sunday night’s game against the Pittsburgh Steelers and is no longer listed on the Dolphins’ injury report.
The NFL’s leader in QBR at the time of his injury in Week 4, Tagovailoa said the process of his return to the field was “pretty stressful,” including his interviews with the NFL and NFLPA as part of their joint investigation into how his situation was handled.
The Dolphins have seen a sharp decline in their offensive efficiency without Tagovailoa on the field. Through the first three weeks of the season, they ranked first and second in the league in points per drive and offensive expected points added, respectively. In the time since, they’ve fallen to 28th in offensive EPA and 29th in points per drive.
It’s a similar situation as Tagovailoa faced last season, when he returned from a rib injury to a team on a four-game losing streak. He said that experience taught him not to press upon his return and that he is not solely responsible for the Dolphins’ success.
“I just gotta be myself — I’m not the savior of this team,” he said. “I don’t just come in and we start winning games. It’s a team deal. The defense gets us stops, the offense goes and puts points on the board and the defense can help put points on the board as well as special teams. So for me, I just look at it as coming into this week and just be myself. Don’t try to force anything. Don’t try to make plays that aren’t there — just give our playmakers the ball and let them go to work.”
|
|
THIS AND THAT
|
|
MVP WATCH
Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com gives us her assessment of the MVP race with approximately 1/3 of the season gone.
Six weeks into the 2022 NFL season, the league’s Most Valuable Player race is starting to come together, highlighted by a host of quarterbacks emerging as candidates. The leader of the AFC’s only one-loss team owns the best Vegas odds and the most first-place votes from our panel, while the QB of the NFL’s only remaining undefeated team has skyrocketed through the first third of the season. Those jockeying for the frontrunner spot have 12 more weeks to make their case.
We asked a group of analysts — Stephania Bell, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Courtney Cronin, Jeremy Fowler, Dan Graziano, Matt Miller, Sal Paolantonio, Jason Reid, Mike Tannenbaum, Seth Walder and Field Yates — to vote on the top players in the MVP race right now. Then we used those 12 sets of rankings to give our top five candidates, using Heisman Trophy-esque scaling for each ranking to determine how the field stacks up.
We’ll also look at a few names who have seen their MVP stock either spike or plummet in the early going, and ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder also weighed in on an under-the-radar MVP-caliber player. Here’s a look at where things stand after six weeks.
1. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
2022 stats: 1,980 passing yards, 17 TDs, 4 INTs, 75.4 QBR (257 rushing yards, 2 TDs)
Current odds: +125
Early season returns reveal an undisputed truth: Allen is the best quarterback in the NFL, an honor he began wrestling away from top AFC rival Patrick Mahomes in last year’s playoffs. Allen entered the season with the best odds to win the MVP and strengthened his case against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6 by outdueling Mahomes in a 24-20 thriller, which he capped off by leading a 76-yard, come-from-behind scoring drive with a little more than a minute remaining.
That was the second game-winning drive he has led the Bills on this month (the other was in a 23-20 win over the Baltimore Ravens) and his first fourth-quarter comeback since Sept. 27, 2020. Allen is now the first starting quarterback to beat Mahomes twice at Arrowhead Stadium. He leads the league in passing (both in yards and yards per game), and his 753 passing yards over the past two games are the most in a two-game span in Bills franchise history.
2. Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
2022 stats: 1,514 passing yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs, 59.6 QBR (293 rushing yards, 6 TDs)
Current odds: +450
Hurts’ ascension — where he has seen vast improvement in areas such as completion percentage (66.8%, ranked ninth), passer rating (98.4, fifth), average release time (2.76) and yards per attempt (8.2, second) — has Philadelphia off to its first 6-0 start since 2004. The 24-year-old QB has won nine games in a row dating to 2021, tied for the longest win streak by an Eagles starting quarterback in 22 years, and he is the fifth player in league history to pass for 1,500 yards and rush for 250 through his team’s first six games.
The Eagles boast the most offensive balance of any team in the NFC (394.5 yards per game, ranked third; 26.8 points per game, fourth) with a steady run game and explosive passing attack. Hurts has played a big role in what the Eagles are doing on the ground, with 11 more carries on designed runs (38) than any other quarterback and 16 of those coming in the red zone, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. He’s also completing a career-high plus-2.7% of his passes over expectation, the third highest in the NFL.
3. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
2022 stats: 1,736 passing yards, 17 TDs, 4 INTs, 74.2 QBR (113 rushing yards)
Current odds: +500
A lot was made about how the Chiefs offense would function without wide receiver Tyreek Hill. His absence has forced Mahomes to spread the ball around and become a more efficient, patient passer. And through six games, Mahomes and Allen are tied for first with 17 touchdown passes. Mahomes continues to be incredibly effective when under pressure, ranking first in touchdowns per pass attempt and third in first downs per pass attempt, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
But the pressure he faced late in Week 6 determined the outcome for the Chiefs. Against the Bills, Mahomes accounted for 92% of Kansas City’s offense when he threw for 338 yards, two touchdown passes, two interceptions and completed 63% of his passes. While Allen led Buffalo on a touchdown drive to take the lead late, Mahomes responded by throwing an interception while under duress, his third pick on a game-winning drive attempt dating to last year’s AFC Championship game.
4. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
2022 stats: 1,277 passing yards, 13 TDs, 6 INTs, 64.1 QBR (451 rushing yards, 2 TDs)
Current odds: +850
Jackson’s MVP candidacy is on hold — for now — after a hot start. He ranks third in touchdown passes and leads all players in yards per rush (8.1) and yards before contact per rush (6.3), becoming the first player to be in the top five in both categories through the first six weeks of the season since the NFL-AFL merger, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
Jackson is at his strongest early in games, with 12 of his 13 touchdown passes coming in the first three quarters. On the flip side, four of his six interceptions have occurred in the fourth quarter. His QBR in the first three quarters is better than fellow MVP candidate Hurts, but his QBR in the fourth quarter is worse than Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields.
5. Micah Parsons, LB, Dallas Cowboys
2022 stats: 6 sacks, 26 tackles, 1 forced fumble, 2 passes defended
Current odds: +12500
A quarterback or running back has won the MVP every year since 1987, but Parsons deserves consideration after a strong start to the season, as he is tied for first in total pressures (31) and second in sacks. Aside from a 26-17 loss to the Eagles where Parsons was largely contained, Dallas has won games this season due to a dominant defense. The Cowboys went 4-1 during a stretch where quarterback Dak Prescott was injured thanks in large part to the defense, which leads the league in sacks (24) and is third in points allowed (98).
Just missed
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (+2500)
Herbert set a record for the most passes thrown (57) without a touchdown in the Chargers’ 19-16 OT win over the Denver Broncos on Monday, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. He’s still in the MVP conversation thanks to where he ranks in passing yards (fourth), touchdowns (sixth), interception percentage (fifth), passing first downs (eighth) and QBR (eighth), but he’ll have to go on a run over the next 11 games to be in contention with the frontrunners.
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants (+10000)
For the first time in the Super Bowl era, the Giants have posted four upset wins in their first six games of a season in large part due to the identity they’ve established with Barkley, who looks like the best running back in the league. He leads the NFL with 771 yards from scrimmage, and his four touchdowns this season are two more than he had in the combined 15 games he played in 2020-21. At minimum, he’s a frontrunner for the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings (+4000)
Cousins broke the Vikings’ franchise record for consecutive completions when he started 17-of-17 in a Week 5 win over the Bears and followed that up by throwing for two touchdown passes in a win over the Miami Dolphins. Coming off his third Pro Bowl season, the 34-year-old has yet to throw for 300 yards in a game, but his efficient play has the Vikings off to a 5-1 start.
Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks (not listed)
Smith leads the NFL in completion percentage over expectation (plus-9.6%), according to NFL Next Gen Stats, and leads the NFL in completion percentage (73.4%) through six weeks. He has thrown for 1,502 yards and nine touchdown passes, which rank ninth and eighth, respectively, among qualified starting quarterbacks. The Seahawks would be nowhere close to a .500 record without Smith, which is why the franchise should consider him as an option at QB beyond this season.
Also received top-10 votes: Bengals QB Joe Burrow, Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, Bills OLB Von Miller, Rams WR Cooper Kupp, Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, Bills WR Stefon Diggs, Browns RB Nick Chubb, Eagles CB James Bradberry, Rams DT Aaron Donald, Rams QB Matthew Stafford, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, Falcons QB Marcus Mariota, 49ers DE Nick Bosa, Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers
Stock up
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Burrow bounced back after the Bengals got off to an 0-2 start, and he has completed more than 62% of his passes in each of his first six games. In a come-from-behind win over the New Orleans Saints, the Bengals’ QB completed 28 of 37 passes for 300 yards and three touchdown passes and didn’t turn the ball over. With Atlanta, Cleveland and Carolina coming up, Burrow could work his way into the MVP mix.
Stock down
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Rodgers is struggling to compensate for a diminished supporting cast. He had a total QBR of 17.0 in a loss to the New York Jets, which was his second worst of the season (10.8 vs. Minnesota in Week 1). Last year’s MVP has six turnovers through six games after turning the ball over four times all of last season. He has lost three fumbles this season after losing two in the previous two seasons combined.
Walder’s under-the-radar MVP candidate
James Bradberry, CB, Philadelphia Eagles
Bradberry is worthy of a top-10 MVP vote, in my view. His nearest defender numbers from NFL Next Gen Stats are outrageous. Among outside corners with 125 coverage snaps, Bradberry ranks:
Second in yards per coverage snap (0.5)
First in targeted expected points added by a wide margin (minus-25.8)
Second in completion percentage over expectation (minus-20%)
First in receptions allowed over expectation (minus-8.0)
To put the second number in context, the Bengals have recorded plus-28.7 EPA on Joe Burrow dropbacks this season (I’m mixing between NGS and ESPN EPA models here — not ideal, but you get the point). To record a level of production as a corner that’s in the same ballpark as a higher-end QB is incredibly valuable. Yes, a bunch of that was generated on a deflection that he turned into a pick-six off Jared Goff, but it was hardly a one-off; Bradberry has been superb the whole year.
|
|
RIP ANTONIO DENNARD
A “former NFL player” has been shot dead.
Antonio Dennard, a former NFL player who played for the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants, was killed in a shooting outside of a bar in Pennsylvania on Oct. 16, authorities have confirmed. He was just 32 years old.
In a statement obtained by E! News on Oct. 18, Muhlenberg Township Police Department said that authorities were notified that a gunshot victim, identified as Dennard, arrived at a hospital in Reading after being wounded in an incident outside of a bar. He was pronounced dead at the hospital shortly thereafter.
Dennard, a Chicago native, played football at Langston University in Oklahoma before signing as a free agent by the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2012. He also had a stint as a cornerback with the New York Giants before joining the practice squad of the Green Bay Packers in 2014. Following his time in the NFL, he played for the Arizona Rattlers in the Indoor Football League from 2015 to 2017.
Exactly what Dennard was doing in the Reading, Pennsylvania area is unclear. In fact, a lot is unclear. It does not appear he ever actually played a regular season game with any NFL team. His high school remains a mystery. And there are few details as to how the police investigation is going.
|
|
CONTENDERS AND PRETENDERS
Jordan Dajani of CBSSports.com has a list of Super Bowl contenders and pretenders. And last year’s Super Bowl teams are not on the contenders list. Neither are the 5-1 Giants:
We are now one-third of the way through the 2022 NFL regular season, and it’s about time we try to separate the wheat from the chaff in this league. We have one remaining undefeated team in the Philadelphia Eagles, three 5-1 teams, four 4-2 teams and then a bevy of three-win teams.
Which NFL teams are for real, and which ones aren’t? Let’s take a look at the top teams in the league record-wise, and make an educated guess on whether they possess the wherewithal to make a Super Bowl run. We will take some liberty with the 12 three-win teams when it comes to the ones we discuss and the ones we don’t. Without further ado, here are six contenders and six pretenders.
Contenders
Buffalo Bills (5-1, 1st in AFC East)
How far will Buffalo go this season?
CONFERENCE WINNER ODDS +140
PROBABILITY 41.7%
The Bills do have a loss on their record, but they are the most complete NFL team and still the odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl LVII. Buffalo is coming off of a 24-20 victory over the Chiefs in Kansas City, in which Josh Allen threw three touchdowns, Devin Singletary rushed for 85 yards and Stefon Diggs caught 10 passes for 148 yards and a score. The defense also picked off Patrick Mahomes twice. Truly, it felt like a revenge game for last season’s playoff loss.
Buffalo statistically has the No. 2 overall defense and the No. 1 offense. They are second in points scored and first in points allowed. An obvious contender that is locked in on their championship mission.
Philadelphia Eagles (6-0, 1st in NFC East)
How far will Philadelphia go this season?
CONFERENCE WINNER ODDS +220
PROBABILITY 31.3%
Many expected the Eagles to be much improved after the moves they made this offseason, but I don’t know how many expected them to be the last remaining undefeated team in the NFL. What’s wild is that they could go a few more weeks without a loss. The Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, Washington Commanders and Indianapolis Colts are Philly’s next four games.
Jalen Hurts has scored 12 total touchdowns in six games and is en route to a career year, the same goes for Miles Sanders, who is averaging a career-high 80.8 rushing yards per game and then the Eagles do somewhat have two No. 1 wide receivers between A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith — just like Brown predicted. I also don’t think we are talking enough about this defense, as they statistically rank fourth in the NFL. We saw how this secondary rattled Cooper Rush last week, as the additions of James Bradberry and C.J. Gardner-Johnson have already paid dividends. Philly is the top team in the NFC.
Kansas City Chiefs (4-2, 1st in AFC West)
How far will Kansas City go this season?
CONFERENCE WINNER ODDS +360
PROBABILITY 21.7%
Anytime you have Patrick Mahomes under center, you’re going to be a contender. He’s tied with Allen for the NFL lead with 17 passing touchdowns, and has eight passing touchdowns when pressured this season — which is twice as many as anyone else. It is a bit worrisome that Mahomes has a 54.9 passer rating in the fourth quarter this season, which ranks second-worst in the NFL. Both of the Chiefs’ losses have come when they’ve had the lead in the fourth quarter.
Something I’m waiting on with the Chiefs is for this wide receiving corps to find its rhythm. We saw a little bit of that against the Bills on Sunday, as JuJu Smith-Schuster went for 113 yards and one touchdown, but I want to see Marquez Valdes-Scantling do more. The Chiefs’ pass defense ranks sixth-worst in the league, but K.C. does have the fourth-best run defense.
Dallas Cowboys (4-2, 3rd in NFC East)
How far will Dallas go this season?
CONFERENCE WINNER ODDS +900
PROBABILITY 10%
It’s impressive that the Cowboys are sitting at 4-2 with Cooper Rush starting the last five games. Credit to the backup signal-caller, but this team’s identity has been on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas has what is statistically the No. 8 unit in the league, but I’m sure everyone views this defense much higher than that. Micah Parsons may win NFL Defensive Player of the Year, and it’s a legitimate joy to watch this front four attack the quarterback. Dorance Armstrong has been fun to watch as well.
The Cowboys have the potential to be one of the best teams in the league if Dak Prescott can provide a bit of an offensive spark. Dallas should be more effective passing the ball down the field, which will take some weight off of the defense’s shoulders.
San Francisco 49ers (3-3, 1st in NFC West)
How far will San Francisco go this season?
CONFERENCE WINNER ODDS +700
PROBABILITY 12.5%
The 49ers are coming off of a 28-14 road loss to the Atlanta Falcons in which the defense did not look like the strong unit we have become accustomed to watching. They were without star pass-rusher Nick Bosa along with several other starters last week. Since drafting Bosa, San Francisco has allowed 4.4 more points per game when he doesn’t play.
We have to remember that the 49ers wanted to move on from Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason for a reason, and I wonder if the key to victory against this team is just getting out to an early lead — much like the Falcons did. Score points early, limit San Francisco’s rushing attack, and maybe you’re golden. Still, this 49ers team could win the NFC West, and we’ve all seen the late-season runs they are capable of. I wouldn’t try to sell the 49ers as pretenders at this point.
Minnesota Vikings (5-1, 1st in NFC North)
How far will Minnesota go this season?
CONFERENCE WINNER ODDS +650
PROBABILITY 13.3%
The Vikings may not be my top pick to win the Super Bowl this year, but now that they are 5-1 while the rival Green Bay Packers are losing to the New York Jets at home, it’s probably time that we as a collective admit that the Vikings may be the top team in the NFC North. Kirk Cousins has been solid under Kevin O’Connell, Dalvin Cook is one of the best backs in the league and Justin Jefferson is quite literally one of the top players in the NFL, as he averages 109 receiving yards per game. This offense has potential despite their middle-of-the-road statistical ranking, and PFF also says they have the fourth-best run blocking line.
The defense is going to have to be better, however, as they currently rank as the seventh-worst unit in the NFL. Still, they allow just 19.7 points per game — which ranks just outside the top 10.
Pretenders
Los Angeles Chargers (4-2, 2nd in AFC West)
How far will Los Angeles (LAC) go this season?
CONFERENCE WINNER ODDS +850
PROBABILITY 10.5%
The Chargers are 4-2, but this season has been a grind thus far. They’ve been crushed by injuries, and have just slipped by a couple of teams they probably should have blown out, such as the Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns. The L.A. defense allows an average of 25.3 points per game, which ranks seventh-worst in the NFL, while the Chargers offense ranks No. 7 in the league. Austin Ekeler is a star, but the Chargers have the worst run-blocking offensive line according to PFF. While I like Justin Herbert, he can’t do much with this lack of protection. That was evident on Monday night vs. the Broncos. It was just the second game of his career in which he didn’t throw a touchdown!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3, 1st in NFC South)
How far will Tampa Bay go this season?
CONFERENCE WINNER ODDS +450
PROBABILITY 18.2%
If you weren’t worried about the Buccaneers at the beginning of the year, you should be worried now. They are coming off of a 20-18 loss to the Steelers — a game in which they were favored by nearly double digits. The Buccaneers are averaging 20.2 points per game this season, the fewest points per game in Tom Brady’s first six starts of a season in his career. Tampa Bay averaged an NFL-best 30.4 points per game in Brady’s first two seasons. This is just the fourth time Brady has started 3-3 or worse — and the first time in a decade. The Buccaneers have a top 10 defense, but I don’t view this team as the kind of contender they were in years past.
New York Giants (5-1, 2nd in NFC East)
How far will New York (NYG) go this season?
CONFERENCE WINNER ODDS +2500
PROBABILITY 3.8%
I don’t want to be categorized as a “Giants hater” for placing New York in the pretenders category, because they deserve so much credit for this hot start. But with major issues at wide receiver and the struggle to put up points, I don’t view the Giants as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Brian Daboll does have this franchise on the right track, however.
Just look at what happened on Sunday vs. the Baltimore Ravens. The Giants looked like the inferior team for the majority of the matchup, and didn’t even cross 100 yards of total offense until the third quarter. Still, the defense forced two clutch turnovers in the fourth quarter, and the offense capitalized on their opportunities. The Giants have won an NFL-high three games when trailing by double-digits this season, which is tied for their most in a season in franchise history.
This squad has guts, and Saquon Barkley has been a huge part of their success. He leads the NFL in touches (140) and scrimmage yards (771), and also has three game-winning plays in the fourth quarter this season: a two-point conversion in Week 1, and then rushing touchdowns in Weeks 5 and 6.
New defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has brought a breath of fresh air to this unit, which has the highest blitz rate in the league. This is a solid football team, but they are probably the third-best club in their own division.
New York Jets (4-2, 2nd in AFC East)
How far will New York (NYJ) go this season?
CONFERENCE WINNER ODDS +4000
PROBABILITY 2.4%
The Jets are quickly becoming one of my favorite teams, as they win by running the ball and playing defense. They’ve outscored their last two opponents 67-27 — and haven’t thrown a single touchdown pass!
New York is on a three-game winning streak, and a big reason why is rookie running back Breece Hall. The favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year has recorded 396 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns in the last three contests, and became the first Jets rookie to record 120-plus scrimmage yards in consecutive games since Al Toon in 1987. Quinnen Williams is another player we aren’t talking about enough. The former first-round pick recorded six pressures, two sacks, two tackles for loss, a forced fumble and a blocked field goal last week against the Packers. He’s rocking on the defensive line, while rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner is dominating in the secondary.
This Jets team is only building confidence, but what happens when they get punched in the mouth first? This offense is not eager to pass the ball with Zach Wilson, so can they score enough points to keep up with a legitimate contender? I’m not buying that just yet. The Packers victory was their most impressive win to date, but Green Bay is all kinds of discombobulated right now.
Baltimore Ravens (3-3, 1st in AFC North)
How far will Baltimore go this season?
CONFERENCE WINNER ODDS +900
PROBABILITY 10%
The Ravens have an MVP candidate in Lamar Jackson and an offense that can keep up with anybody on the scoreboard. But that’s not the issue when it comes to them being pretenders. The Ravens statistically have the eighth-worst defense in the NFL — and I don’t even think that accurately describes it. Entering last week, the Ravens statistically had the worst passing defense in the league, but got some help from Daniel Jones, who only passed for 173 yards. I get that this is an offensive-driven league, but you can’t win without defense!
The Ravens are now 3-3, and what blows my mind is that Baltimore has led by double digits in all three of its losses. Some Atlanta Falcons vibes over here.
Tennessee Titans (3-2, 1st in AFC South)
How far will Tennessee go this season?
CONFERENCE WINNER ODDS +2800
PROBABILITY 3.4%
If we learned anything about the Titans last year, it’s that you can never count them out. They fought their way to the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a record-setting amount of different players and without star running back Derrick Henry, but couldn’t win a playoff game.
The Titans have reeled off three straight wins after starting the year with two embarrassing losses, and just had their bye week to reset. It’s hard to view the Titans as a Super Bowl contender with the fifth-worst passing offense in the league and the worst passing defense, but I do have them winning the AFC South.
The Giants at least make the Pretenders list. Not so lucky are the two teams that went to the Super Bowl last year – each of them an okay 3-3.
The Jets make the list, but not the Dolphins who are 3-3 after losing their QB for much of three games. No respect for the Patriots, Titans, Colts or Packers, to name just a few.
|
|
