The Daily Briefing Thursday, October 27, 2022

Kurt Warner has seen enough from QBs TOM BRADY and AARON RODGERS.  Isabel Gonzalez of CBSSports.com:

Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner suggested that maybe it’s time for Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers to hang up the cleats. In a recent interview with People, Warner said both NFL stars look like they are running out of energy.

“I think both of those guys look like they’re exhausted,” Warner said. “It’s OK to go, ‘You know what? It’s not how it used to be. I may not be who I used to be, or, it’s just too hard overall to get everybody up to the standard. Maybe it is time to walk away.'”

Warner played in the NFL for 12 seasons before announcing his retirement at the age of 38 in January 2010. He said being a professional football player is not easy, but the key to enjoying the experience is finding balance and not letting high expectations on the field take away from other important things in life.

“Another reason why those last couple years I was doing more and more and more [was] because I felt like there was more expected of me or there was more I needed to do for us to be successful,” Warner said. “It started to take more and more away from my family and my time, and again, me physically to be able to give them the time and effort that I wanted, because my mind was always on other things. So all of that really just kinda played into why I made that decision, but it’s hard.”

Brady technically retired already, but he only stepped away for 40 days this past offseason before announcing his return. The Buccaneers quarterback celebrated his 45th birthday in August. His team has had some disappointing performances this season and currently holds a 3-4 record, which is Brady’s first losing record through seven games since 2002, when he played his first full season as an NFL starter with the New England Patriots. The latest setback for Tampa Bay was an ugly 21-3 loss to the Carolina Panthers on Oct. 23. However, Brady said he would not leave mid-season no matter how bad things get.

Meanwhile, Rodgers will be 39 years old in December and is also part of a 3-4 team. This is the first time in his 18 NFL seasons that he experienced a losing record in the first seven games. Multiple mistakes forced his team to swallow a 23-21 loss to the Washington Commanders last Sunday. Per the NFL, Rodgers and Brady’s combined 1.5 passing touchdowns per game so far this season is their worst through Week 7 since 2008, when Rodgers became Green Bay’s starter.

Warner said he used to dwell on headlines but eventually learned that life is much better when you stop caring about what other people think. He also said that retirement doesn’t have to feel like the end of the world.

“It’s not being defeated,” Warner said. “That’s not saying you can’t do it anymore. I just think sometimes that stuff outweighs the joy of the game, which is what it looks like is happening for those two guys and I feel for them.”

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

The 3-4 Bears have a changed offensive identity with QB JUSTIN FIELDS being asked to run more.  Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com:

Devin McCourty had seen this before. The way the Chicago Bears utilized quarterback Justin Fields in a 33-14 win over the Patriots on Sunday night reminded the veteran safety of another QB who had run all over New England’s defense a month prior.

“I think with the extended time, they added some plays that I think we saw in the Baltimore game with Lamar Jackson,” McCourty said, referring to the 10 days between the Bears’ last two games.

Fields said Wednesday the Bears implemented several of Baltimore’s run plays into their game plan against New England, notably the ones drawn up for the former MVP quarterback. Jackson ranks second with 39 designed runs for 390 yards and two TDs.

“He’s just quicker and faster than everybody else,” Fields said. “I’m just hoping to be quick like that one day.”

Using their second-year quarterback in a manner similar to Jackson was the catalyst for Chicago’s highest scoring game with Fields at quarterback. Of Fields’ 14 rushes (a single-game career high) for 82 yards, 10 came on designed runs and yielded 5.6 yards per rush. Fields totaled 13 designed rushes for 28 yards in Weeks 1-6 combined.

Bill Belichick said the Patriots were aware of Fields’ skill set as a runner beyond his ability to scramble and improvise when plays break down. How capable New England’s defense was to stop it proved to be a different story.

“We gave him third-and-long, and it seems like he would just find a running lane and pick it up with his feet or make a throw,” linebacker Matthew Judon said. “I think we kind of had no answers for him.”

The Bears came away from their mini-bye week with a formidable plan for how to incorporate Fields’ most underutilized asset: his legs. Fields was on the move frequently, whether on called runs or plays outside of the pocket. Fields went 6-for-7 for 104 yards throwing on the run, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

“I think it’s very hard to defend,” Bears coach Matt Eberflus said. “I’ve tried to defend those guys over the years, and it’s very difficult.

“We just have to do it the right way – and we’ve got to be creative with how we do it.”

Chicago offensive coordinator Luke Getsy called six of Fields’ 10 designed rushes at New England on first downs, which the quarterback turned into 36 yards, two first downs and a 3-yard touchdown, his second rushing TD this season. Ten days in between games allowed Getsy to look at what Chicago’s offense does well – running on early downs – and add his quarterback to the mix. Chicago leads the NFL with 6.1 yards per carry on first downs.

The Bears own the NFL’s best rushing offense at 181 yards per game. Since 1988, two of Chicago’s three best single-game rushing performances have come this season: 281 vs. Houston in Week 3 and 243 on Sunday.

– – –

LB ROQUAN SMITH was doing a media availability when news of DE ROBERT QUINN’s trade came out.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Bears’ decision to trade veteran defensive end Robert Quinn to the Eagles is not going to sit well in the locker room in Chicago.

Bears linebacker Roquan Smith was in the middle of his regular appearance with the local media when news of the trade was first reported, and Smith broke down in tears at the news.

“It sucks,” Smith said. “I’m going to take a second, if you don’t mind. I have a great deal of respect for that guy. Damn. Crazy.”

With that, Smith cut his media appearance short.

Smith himself requested a trade during the offseason before agreeing to play out the final year of his rookie contract with the Bears. Now it’s fair to wonder whether Smith will be the next one traded.

From the standpoint of Smith and his teammates, it’s easy to see why they’re not going to be happy about Quinn’s departure: They just earned the best win of the season on Monday night against the Patriots, and they’re currently only half a game out of the final NFC wild card spot. The players are playing hard, and they want to fight for a playoff berth.

But Bears General Manager Ryan Poles is clearly thinking more about the future than the present, and so Quinn is on the way out. If the Bears get the right offer, Smith could be on the way out, too.

With Quinn gone, the Bears 2023 expected cap room goes from ample to crazy.  Luis Medina at Forbes.com:

The Bears Draft Pick Situation Improves Slightly

As things stand, these are the picks the Bears currently own going into the 2023 NFL Draft (pick positioning projection via Tankathon based on current standings):

Round 1 — 14th

Round 2 — 45th

Round 3 — 76th

Round 4 — 107th

Round 4 — 128th (from the Eagles, via the Quinn trade)

Round 5 — 138th

Round 7 — 207th

The Bears currently do *NOT* have a sixth-round pick in the upcoming draft. Their sixth-round selection belongs to the Dolphins because of the deal that brought Jakeem Grant Sr. to Chicago. Grant was a Pro Bowl returner whom we’ll fondly remember for making splash plays on a team that didn’t give us much to root for in 2021. But remembering that the Bears don’t have a sixth-round pick because lame-duck then-GM Ryan Pace was willing to risk it all in order to improve slightly on the margins gnaws at me a little. Let’s call it water under the bridge and move on.

If you believe trading Quinn for a fourth-round pick isn’t the best return, I understand where you’re coming from. But it really isn’t an awful one. Even if the Eagles go on to win the Super Bowl, getting the 32nd pick in the fourth round for a 32-year-old player who Pro Football Focus currently grades as the fourth-worst edge defender among the 112 qualifiers for the leaderboard isn’t too shabby. And I’ll never thumb my nose at adding valuable draft capital. Especially after seeing how GM Ryan Poles seemingly created Day 3 draft picks out of thin air.

Trading Quinn wasn’t just about moving a 32-year-old veteran off a team that isn’t contending and onto one that has Super Bowl aspirations. Instead, the Quinn deal was more about using a current player as a trade chip who could net a return that would help build the next great Bears team. No one wants to see popular and productive players go, but trading Quinn checks some boxes for the Bears. So let’s keep that in mind as we’re letting it all sink in.

Creating More Cap Space

The cap gymnastics that come about from the Quinn deal are fun to navigate, so let’s do it together.

First of all, kudos to the Bears for chipping in the maximum amount of cash to ensure the best possible return. That is absolutely what they should be doing right now, so it’s good to see they got that part right (consider the unsavory alternative of accepting a 5th round pick just to save $6.48M).

Second of all, Brad does tremendous work in breaking down the financial stuff and deal valuation on the football side of things. So when he tweets that a fourth-round pick is a “great return” then I believe him. Full stop.

As for the elephant in the room — a.k.a. the Bears’ cap space for 2023 — it continues to grow as a result of the Quinn trade.

Using the cap calculator at OverTheCap.com (what a resource this is for us!), we estimate that the Bears are going from $115,976,523 in available cap space in 2023 to roughly $125,000,000. In other words, that deal creates nearly $10M in additional cap space, which is nearly double the next team. Hot diggity dog! That’s a whole lotta wiggle room under the cap. And when you consider the Bears’ needs that are on the horizon, every dollar counts.

GREEN BAY

This from Scott Kacsmar:

@ScottKacsmar

Aaron Rodgers (+11 at Buffalo) is a double-digit underdog for the first time in his NFL career this week.

Previous high was +8.5 in both games against the 2014 Seahawks in Seattle.

– – –

QB AARON RODGERS says you have a problem if you are taken aback at the way he’s been criticizing his teammates.  This from Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com who plays reporter until a shot in the final paragraph:

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers met with reports on Wednesday. To little surprise, the dominant subject of conversation came from his public criticism of unnamed teammates for making extensive mental mistakes in games, at a rate of 20 percent. Rodgers, to little surprise, had no regrets for his remarks.

“People in this society have a hard time hearing truth sometimes,” Rodgers said at one point during a 15-minute press conference at his locker.

Rodgers was asked whether it counts as good leadership to take his concerns public, when he could have done it privately.

“I did do it privately,” Rodgers said. “I’m not saying anything [publicly] that I’m not saying to those guys. So, maybe that’s talking about a conversation that’s behind closed doors in public, but the level of accountability is the standard here. Again, I don’t think it should be a problem to any of those guys to hear criticism. We all hear criticism in our own ways, and we’ve all got to be OK with it and take it in and process it. And if it doesn’t fit, then it doesn’t fit. But if it fits, we’ve got to wear it and improve on those certain things.

“I’m not going to be a robot up here. I don’t understand why people have a problem with things that are truthful. You know, I’m calling things the way I see it. If people don’t think I need to air that stuff out, that’s their opinion. But I’m doing what I think is in the best interests of our guys, and I’ve tried a lot of different things from a leadership standpoint this year. And I was relating my personal feelings on the situation. I didn’t call anybody out by name.

“I think we all need to be on the details. And that includes me. If I need to have, you know, one-on-one extra conversations with those guys during the week, then I’m gonna do that. And we have done that to an extent. But, you know, I’m not just putting one or two guys on blast. I’m alerting everybody that this hasn’t been good enough, and we’ve all got to do a little better job. You know, if one of those guys has a problem with it, I’m right here. I’d love to have a conversation. I enjoy those conversations. You know? I enjoy any type of conflict like that, because I know the resolution on the other side’s gonna make us a better unit, better friendship, better cohesion on the field. But nobody’s come to me and said, ‘I’ve got a problem with what you said.’ I think everybody knows, Matt [LaFleur] includes, that everything’s got to take a little uptick, get a little better.”

Rodgers at one point was asked whether he had specific players in mind when he said some should get benched for making constant mental mistakes.

“Not necessarily,” Rodgers said. “I think it’s just, you know, we’ve got to get our best eleven on the field. . . . We can’t have the same double-digit, fifteen-plus mental errors and expect to move the ball efficiently.”

Generally speaking, Rodgers believes his teammates should have thick skin.

“We all should be able to handle criticism,” Rodgers said. “That’s the nature of our job. Everything we do is scrutinized, from myself on down to the young players. And getting used to dealing with that in a positive way is important, whether it’s coming from one of you people, or from me or from [coach] Matt LaFleur. We need to be able to be coachable, all of us.”

So what will it take to eliminate the mistakes?

“Time,” Rodgers said. “You know, we have a schedule. We’re creatures of habit. But when we leave this place, we’ve got to be making sure we’re doing the right thing when we’re home. Some of that’s watching film. Some of that’s studying the plan. Some of that’s studying ourselves. But we’ve got to make sure we’re ready to go every single day we step in the building.”

And there’s the apparent root of the concern. Rodgers thinks guys aren’t going above and beyond the bare minimum in order to make themselves better. It’s an ironic remark, given that Rodgers has done the bare minimum during the past two offseasons. Maybe if he’d attended offseason workouts and/or gathered his teammates for throwing sessions in the down time, they wouldn’t be making mental mistakes now.

NFC EAST

PHILADELPHIA

QB JALEN HURTS, who wore an Astros hat to a 2020 press conference, is back-tracking on his allegiance to his childhood team.  Glenn Erby of EaglesWire:

Jalen Hurts may be an MVP candidate and quarterback for the Eagles, but he’s also a hometown kid from the Eastside of Houston, and this week he has a dilemma.

The Texas native is the quarterback in Philadelphia, and his hometown Astros will face the Phillies in the World Series on Friday night in Houston for game one.

Asked about his allegiance for this epic matchup, the Eagles quarterback kept it politically correct in assessing where his heart lies.

“I’m Houston born and raised. I love my city. That’s my hometown. But my home now is Philly. And I love this city too.  That’s how I deal with it.”

Hurts previously caught flak for wearing an Astros hat to a press conference during his rookie season in 2020 after taking over then-quarterback Carson Wentz.

He’s a Philly guy now through and through, but he’s really in a win-win situation from a fan’s point of view.

– – –

The Eagles have acquired DE ROBERT QUINN, hoping they get the 2021 version and not the one on display this year.  Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com:

The Chicago Bears traded veteran pass-rusher Robert Quinn to the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for a fourth-round draft pick.

Both teams announced the terms of the trade Wednesday afternoon, pending Quinn passing a physical.

Quinn had been with the Bears since April 2020 when he signed a five-year, $70 million deal as a free agent. A league source confirmed with ESPN that the Bears are absorbing the bulk of Quinn’s 2022 salary.

“Obviously, part of the tough thing with this job and the position are the tough decisions you have to make,” Bears general manager Ryan Poles said. “I almost feel like there’s the emotional side, the human part of it that you know you’re affecting not only a man but his family. You’re kind of shaking that all up, and I don’t take that lightly at all and I’m sensitive to that. You also know that you’re tweaking the fibers of your locker room, and that’s a big deal, too.

“And on the business side, it just made too much sense for what we’re trying to do. It’s going to allow us to continue to build a highly competitive roster.”

This is the third time Quinn has been traded over his 12-year NFL career and the second time to a team in the NFC East. Quinn was sent from the Rams to the Miami Dolphins in 2018 and then to the Dallas Cowboys one year later.

Quinn was the subject of trade rumors throughout the offseason after Chicago hired a new front office and coaching staff that parted ways with more than 20 players from the Bears’ previous regime. That included trading fellow pass-rusher Khalil Mack to the Los Angeles Chargers in March in exchange for a 2022 second-round pick and 2023 sixth-round selection.

Quinn, a three-time Pro Bowl defensive end, broke the Bears’ single-season sack record with 18.5 in 2021. Though his statistics have leveled off this season, he is regarded as one of the top pass-rushers in the NFL. In seven games this season, he has one sack, three quarterback hits, two tackles for loss and eight total tackles.

– – –

On the Eagles’ side, they haven’t been lacking in pass-rush production — they’ve posted 17 sacks and 39 quarterback hits in six games — but they wanted to add depth at a key position, especially after losing defensive end Derek Barnett for the season with an ACL tear in the opener against the Detroit Lions.

Quinn joins a group that includes Josh Sweat, Brandon Graham and Tarron Jackson, who have combined for 5.5 sacks on the year.

“I think it’s another great player on this team. He has a history of being a great defensive end and edge rusher, and I think he’ll help us out in a number of ways,” said Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. “Adds a lot of depth, and I’m excited to meet him [Thursday] when he comes.”

Quinn reported to training camp on time after skipping out on the Bears’ entire offseason program, including mandatory minicamp in June. He said then that he never expected to go anywhere while also noting the uncertainty of a decision that is not up to him.

“I’ve been traded twice,” Quinn said in July. “You get tired of moving. I thought I did a good job last year, but I guess I’ll just continue to try to reprove myself. … I expect to be here, but I guess if not, well, that’s out of my control. I’m just going to take it day by day and have fun here with the guys and just let life take its course.”

There are rumors that the Eagles are still shopping – and even with the acquisition of Quinn they have plenty of draft capital, as pointed out by Adam Schefter:

@AdamSchefter

Even after trading for Robert Quinn today, C.J. Gardner-Johnson last summer, and A.J. Brown and Jordan Davis on draft day, the Eagles still are scheduled to have six picks in the 2023 draft, including two in the first round – theirs and the Saints’.

@AdamSchefter

And then, the Eagles also currently have double 2s in 2024 – theirs and the Saints’.

Doug Farrar on why Quinn’s sacks may be down:

@NFL_DougFarrar

Robert Quinn has faced 58 double-teams this season. Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons are each in the 40s.

Imagine what that does for everybody else on the Eagles’ front.

– – –

ProFootballFocus.com has the early projection on perfection:

Perfect Eagles

The estimated odds that the Philadelphia Eagles continue their undefeated regular season are 2.5%. There is a 0.5% chance they go 20-0 to win the Super Bowl.

Football Outsiders has the chances of the Eagles going 17-0 at 3.4%.

NFC SOUTH

NEW ORLEANS

There is indeed WAR in football, and ProFootballFocus.com says the Saints have lost the most of it to injury:

The New Orleans Saints have the most WAR lost to injury this season, as it feels like they have an entirely different team out there each week. To highlight this, receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry and CB Marshon Lattimore (who each have WAR values above 0.045) have all missed time.

The team that has lost the least WAR to injury per PFF is Houston.  It’s not clear if that’s because they don’t have many injuries, or they don’t have much WAR to lose in the first place.

AFC WEST

DENVER

The Broncos will owe QB RUSSELL WILSON a lot of money.  GM George Paton still says, publicly, that it will be money well spent.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The first seven games of the Broncos season has led to criticism of several decisions that General Manager George Paton was part of during the offseason and he spent time on Thursday discussing some of them.

Paton led the search process that resulted in hiring head coach Nathaniel Hackett and he said on Thursday that he supports the head coach “100 percent” despite many gaffes during the team’s 2-5 start. The Hackett hiring was followed by the moves to trade for and extend the contract of quarterback Russell Wilson.

While most agreed in the offseason that the move was an upgrade at quarterback, Wilson has not played well and Paton was asked about the call to add five years and $245 million to Wilson’s pact before seeing the quarterback take any regular season snaps in the Denver offense.

“We wanted to get ahead of the contract cycle,” Paton said, via Mike Klis of KUSA. “We had seen how Russ was in the offseason and training camp and we felt really good about Russ. We feel really good about Russ. We wanted to get ahead of it. We didn’t want a lot of distraction during the season. We feel really good about it. I feel good about that deal. I feel like it will hold up. I feel good about Russ.”

Paton’s future in Denver is tied to Hackett and Wilson, so there’s not much for him to do other than back up the decisions while showing faith that they’ll be proven correct at some point down the road. New owners took over control of the team after those decisions were made, however, and their faith in calls made before they got there will ultimately decide the futures of Paton, Hackett and others in Denver.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

WR BRANDIN COOKS is an asset that some playoff hopeful teams might like to have. Bryan D’Ardo of CBSSports.com:

Brandin Cooks appears destined to match Eric Dickerson’s record as the most-traded player in NFL history. The veteran receiver and current Houston Texan is once again at the center of trade rumors with the Nov. 1 trade deadline looming. The Chiefs, Packers, and Rams have inquired about a possible trade involving Cooks, according to Aaron Wilson of KPRC2.

The well-traveled Cooks has already been traded three times. The 29-year-old was traded from New Orleans to New England in 2017. He spent a year with the Patriots (helping New England advance to Super Bowl LII) before playing against them in Super Bowl LIII after being traded to Los Angeles in 2018. Cooks spent two years with the Rams before he was dealt to the Texans ahead of the 2020 season.

Cooks has proven to be a productive player in each of his NFL stops. The 5-foot-10 wideout had two 1,000-yard campaigns in three seasons with the Saints. He topped the 1,000-yard mark during his lone season with the Patriots and had consecutive 1,000-yard seasons during his first two years with the Texans. He’s been less productive this season, however, with just 28 receptions for 281 yards and a score in six games.

The Packers and Rams reported interest in Cooks shouldn’t come as a surprise, as both teams are in serious need of help at receiver. Green Bay has dealt with injuries at the position as well as the offseason departure of Davante Adams. The Rams have not found an adequate No. 2 receiver to complement Cooper Kupp, as tight end Tyler Higbee is currently the team’s leading receiver.

Kansas City being interested in Cooks is somewhat of a surprise given that Andy Reid’s team is currently first in the NFL in scoring and touchdown passes and second in passing yards. Patrick Mahomes has continued to play at an MVP level despite the offseason trade of Tyreek Hill to Miami. Travis Kelce continues to be Mahomes’ primary target, while first-year Chief JuJu Smith-Schuster has emerged as the Chiefs’ top receiver in terms of receptions and receiving yards. Mecole Hardman and Clyde Edwards-Helaire have also contributed to the passing game with three touchdown catches apiece.

A Day 2 draft pick will likely be the asking price for Cooks, who will likely be traded for a fourth time prior to the trade deadline. As noted above, Cooks would join Dickerson as the only players to be traded four times. A Hall of Fame running back who still owns the NFL’s single season rushing record, Dickerson won three rushing titles with the Rams and a fourth one after being traded to the Colts midway through the 1987 season.

Why would the Buccaneers – who are getting little from offseason acquisitions JULIO JONES and RUSSELL GAGE – not be on that list? (so then we looked at the stats and Gage has 29 catches – but not very productive ones).

INDIANAPOLIS

QB MATT RYAN is reeling from his benching, but tries to say the right thing.  Stephen Holder of ESPN.com:

Matt Ryan came to work Monday morning planning to rehab his sore right shoulder and turn his attention to the Washington Commanders.

But the Indianapolis Colts quarterback was instead hit with the stunning news that he had lost his starting job to 2021 sixth-round pick Sam Ehlinger.

“As a player, you just always anticipate, you’re getting ready, you’re going to go,” Ryan said Wednesday in his first comments since the Colts’ decision. “And so that’s where your mindset’s at. There is a little bit surprise and shock at the beginning, but it’s a decision they had to make and, as a player, as a teammate, you have to move forward and you’ve got to help out where you can.”

Ryan has missed just three starts in his 15-year career and has never been a backup, even in his rookie season with the Atlanta Falcons. But after committing 12 turnovers in his first seven games in Indianapolis, he now finds himself sitting behind a 24-year-old who has never thrown a pass in a regular-season game — a position Ryan will hold even after he returns from his separated shoulder, according to coach Frank Reich.

“It’s not something I’ve dealt with,” Ryan said of being a backup. “But I’ve been around a long time and seen that it happens.

“So I’ve always preached that you’ve got to accept and embrace the role that they decide for you and try and be the best in that role that you can be. And that’s what I’ll do.”

Reich, asked why the Colts are making such a dramatic move in spite of their 3-3-1 record and second-place standing in the AFC South, rejected the idea that Indianapolis is giving up on the season.

“I can tell you this for sure: Nobody is waving the white flag,” Reich said. “It’s not in my DNA. It’s not in our players’ DNA. I would never do that in a million years. I just couldn’t do that.”

As for the team’s reaction to the quarterback decision, center Ryan Kelly suggested the response was mixed.

“Everybody’s got their own opinions about it,” Kelly said. “I’m not going to get into mine, but certainly, I think everybody’s a little bit surprised. So it is what it is.”

Also, this from Holder:

Why start Ehlinger over Foles?

There are a couple of possible reasons.

First, the Colts have been intrigued by Ehlinger since his arrival but have yet to learn about him in the context of the regular season. Ryan’s injury created an opportunity for the Colts to see more of him as the team tries to plot its future at the position. Ehlinger’s history at Texas suggests he’s a gamer. He made 43 starts for the Longhorns and has the fourth-most quarterback wins in school history.

Meanwhile, Foles presents a similar problem to Ryan. Both are pocket passers who lack mobility, and that has intensified the challenge of playing behind the Colts’ porous offensive line. Switching to Ehlinger is hardly a sure thing, but it does give the Colts some potential to help their struggling line.

TENNESSEE

Mina Kimes on the Titans ability to finish:

@minakimes

One of the craziest stats to me…red zone efficiency generally varies year to year, but over the last 4 years, here’s where the Titans have ranked:

2022: 1st (80%!)

2021: 5th (63.9%)

2020: 2nd (75%)

2019: 1st (75.6%)

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

TE DAWSON KNOX is one person not anxious to leave the State of New York per Alaina Getzenberg of ESPN.com:

@agetzenberg

Dawson Knox said today that he would have signed a 10-year extension with the Bills.

“This community, the fan base and then everyone inside this building too, I wouldn’t trade it for anything.”

Knox agreed to a 4-year (not 10-year) extension in September for $53.6 million ($31 million guaranteed).

MIAMI

A tweet from Orlando Alzugaray Jr:

@BigOShow

Only two QB’s in the #NFL are undefeated in games they started and finished.

#TUA 4-0

#JalenHurts 6-0

Ahhhh, not true Big O.

QB ZACH WILSON of the Jets is 4-0, just like Tua.

NEW ENGLAND

Whispers inside Patriots HQ say QB MAC JONES will be Sunday’s starter.  ESPN.com:

New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones took approximately 90% of the first-team reps at practice Wednesday and will start Sunday against the New York Jets, a source told ESPN’s Field Yates.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick pulled Jones after three series in Monday’s blowout loss to Chicago, inserting rookie Bailey Zappe in his place for the rest of the game.

Belichick, who insisted Jones wasn’t benched and would have returned to the game in the second half if the score had been closer, hasn’t said this week who would be starting for the Patriots.

“I plan to start every game that I’ve ever played in, Whether that was in pee-wee football or third string at Alabama,” Jones said when told about ESPN’s report that he’d be starting against the Jets.

“I always try to prepare as a starter. Like I always say, if it’s one snap or 70 I’ll be ready to go and that’s all you can do. You can’t really control anything else. I work really hard and put myself in position to do that and, yes, I think I deserve that.”

Belichick said the team intended to play both Jones and Zappe in Monday’s game against the Bears — and informed both players of the plan leading into the game. He said Jones’ recovery from a left high ankle sprain — he was playing for the first time since Sept. 25 — was “a factor” in the decision.

Jones is not listed on the Patriots’ injury report this week.

NEW YORK JETS

Mina Kimes brings this to our attention:

@minakimes

Today I learned that some Jets fans refer to Mike LaFleur as “MiLF.”

His quarterback is Zach Wilson.

Just gonna leave that there and walk away.

– – –

ProFootballFocus on how costly Sunday’s win in Denver was:

The New York Jets lost arguably their two best players on offense in RB Breece Hall (0.05 WAR) and G Alijah Vera Tucker (0.077 WAR) for the rest of the season.

A versatile player capable of playing every position on the offensive line, Vera Tucker had generated more WAR than Hall. The Jets just traded for running back James Robinson, so look to see if they bring in an offensive lineman to fill in for another injury on the line.

THIS AND THAT

BROADCAST NEWS

Bill Shea of The Athletic with an update on Amazon’s Thursday Night Football ratings:

Amazon is six weeks into its multi-billion-dollar deal to stream the NFL’s “Thursday Night Football” games, and viewership has fallen by several million people.

There’s no panic from either the ecommerce giant or the NFL because, as both have stated, their deal is long-term and not focused on week-to-week numbers with a still-emerging technology that audiences are still adopting.

The audience decline is both in the Nielsen-measured viewership — it’s Nielsen data that Amazon uses to sell TNF airtime to advertisers — and in Amazon’s internal first-party viewership data.

The inaugural Amazon Prime Video TNF game this season was Week 2’s Chiefs-Chargers thriller that averaged 13 million per Nielsen and 15.2 million per Amazon’s data. Fast-forward to last week’s Cardinals-Saints shootout and the numbers are 7.8 million (Nielsen) and 8.9 million (Amazon + Nielsen).

That’s a 40 percent rate of decline for Nielsen numbers and 41.4 percent for Amazon numbers. It should be noted that the Cardinals-Saints game streamed against the rare “sports equinox” of all five major leagues playing on the same day (along with several other sports properties).

Still, the games have declined in viewership every week in Amazon’s own metrics, and in four of the weeks following the TNF season opener, per the Nielsen data.

Amazon Prime Video TNF viewership      Nielsen            Amazon                Local TV

Sept. 15    Chiefs 27, Chargers 24           13 million        15.3 million           1.16 million

Sept. 22    Browns 29, Steelers 17          11.03 million    13.6 million          1.18 million

Sept. 29    Bengals 27, Dolphins 15        11.7 million      13.4 million             531,000

Oct. 6        Colts 12, Broncos 9                9.7 million        11 million             684,000

Oct. 13      Commanders 12, Bears 7      8.8 million        10.5 million           1.26 million

Oct. 20       Cardinals 42, Saints 34          7.8 million       8.9 million             n/a

(Note: All data provided by Amazon; the linear local TV numbers are broken out from the overall totals.)

How much of the overall audience fall-off stems from casual viewer curiosity waning — and losing fans frustrated over technical issues such as picture and sound quality — versus regulars turning off a couple of underwhelming games isn’t clear.

A bad, sloppy game is deadly in any sport for viewership, and for TNF the Colts-Broncos game on Oct. 6 and the Commanders-Bears game on Oct. 13 were the football version of the “Not great, Bob!” meme.

What is known is that it’s an 11-year contract that has Amazon paying the NFL a reported $1.2 billion a season for the right to stream the Thursday games (they also air on local over-the-air TV in each week’s participating team’s home markets; more below on that).

Both the NFL and Amazon view the deal as a long-term play, which makes sense, and don’t place much stock in the vagaries of weekly audience data. Instead, both have said producing a high-quality broadcast/stream and viewing experience is most important in terms of their internal success metrics and goals. Viewers have taken to social media to praise or damn Amazon for their viewing experience.

We would expect that Baltimore at Tampa Bay tonight would reverse the decline.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS PLAYOFF ODDS

For the first time this year, we take a look at Football Outsiders and their playoff odds based on the secret sauce of DVOA.

First, division races and Wild Card chances.  We boldface the seven teams with the best total playoff chances:

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

And then the chances to advance:

So the 5-1 Vikings, with a 2-game division lead, have a 0.2% better chance of winning the SB than the 3-4 Buccaneers?