AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
The NFL announces recent Covid-19 results:
The National Football League and NFL Players Association today announced the COVID-19 monitoring testing results for September 20-October 3.
During this period, players and Tier 1 and 2 personnel were tested daily. Tier 3 individuals were tested weekly. Individuals who test positive for COVID-19 follow the joint NFL-NFLPA Treatment Protocol. They are immediately isolated and not permitted access to club facilities or have direct contact with players or personnel. Club medical staff are in regular communication with individuals who test positive to monitor symptoms.
For any club experiencing an outbreak or anyone who had exposure to a club with an active outbreak, supplemental intensive protocols are mandatory for clubs to implement at their facilities. NFL chief medical officer Dr. Allen Sills, in consultation with medical experts, will determine when a club must follow the Post Exposure COVID Procedures, as well as when they are relieved of these additional steps.
Monitoring Testing results for September 20 – September 26:
36,666 tests were administered to a total of 7,778 players and team personnel.
14,223 tests were administered to 2,470 players; 22,443 tests were administered to 5,308 personnel.
There were two confirmed positive tests among players and four new confirmed positives among other personnel.
Monitoring Testing results for September 27 – October 3:
37,002 tests were administered to a total of 7,981 players and team personnel.
14,254 tests were administered to 2,480 players; 22,748 tests were administered to 5,501 personnel.
There were 11 confirmed positive tests among players and 15 new confirmed positives among other personnel.
Total test results for the entire Monitoring Testing period to-date, Aug 1 – Oct 3:
During Monitoring Testing from Aug 1 – Oct 3, 31 players and 53 other personnel were confirmed positive cases.
More than 370,000 tests were administered to players and personnel during the Aug 1 – Oct 3 period.
It would appear that from the 84 confirmed positive cases there has not been a single hospitalization or known “serious” case.
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NFC SOUTH
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TAMPA BAY
Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com labels the 3-1 Buccaneers as mere pretenders according to her sophisticated analysis:
PRETENDERS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC South · 3-1
Before you start cursing my name and disparaging my model, allow me to explain a bit. First, remaining-schedule win probabilities are factored in to help determine most likely playoff seeding. Then the predictors simulate the postseason, which factors in all potential matchups/opponents. As of now, I do not have the Buccaneers favored to win the division, with the Saints holding a narrow advantage in the percentages of 48.3 to 46.4. We’ll all get a better sense of the Bucs’ postseason potential when they play the Packers (Week 6), Rams (Week 11) and Chiefs (Week 12), not to mention the rematch vs. the Saints (Week 9). In this Thursday’s matchup with the Bears, one of the questions raised in my data will likely start to become clearer, and that is whether or not the offense can stop giving the ball away. Tampa has six turnovers, tied for ninth-most. Tom Brady’s adjustment to this offense, with its unique architecture and these specific surrounding castmates, was always going to occur on a learning curve. However, ball security has typically been a big strength for Brady, so we’ll soon see if the Bucs are getting over that curve or if mounting injuries will prolong it. The other concerning flag is on defense. Let’s be clear: Over the first four games, this defense has been extremely stout, ranking fourth in total D, third in sacks and second in takeaways. Still, there are some indicators that stopping the pass could be an issues against playoff-caliber teams. On third down, the Bucs are allowing a 122.1 passer rating (fourth-highest). Also, Next Gen Stats shows that Todd Bowles’ unit has blitzed on the second highest percentage of dropbacks (42.0) since 2019. The results have largely been positive, but rookie Justin Herbert shredded the Tampa’s blitzing last week (6-for-8, 122 yards, two TDs). Could this continue to be a problem going forward?
Her article labels teams as STRONG CONTENDERS, CONTENDERS and PRETENDERS. Not sure how a team with a 46% chance, no make that 46.4%, is not at least a “contender.”
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Jenna Laine of ESPN.com on “Tommy” – the QB of the Bucs. Some interesting quotes from QB coach Clyde Christiansen in the edited version of her piece below:
With 11:10 to go in the fourth quarter Sunday and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers trailing the Los Angeles Chargers by three, Bucs quarterback Tom Brady found rookie fourth-string running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the flat for a 9-yard touchdown to regain the lead and help seal the Bucs’ 17-point comeback, the fifth largest of Brady’s career.
“I love you, Sneak!” Brady said, calling Vaughn by his nickname.
Prior to Sunday, the Bucs had lost 42 consecutive games when trailing by 17 or more points. Also prior to Sunday, Vaughn had played zero offensive snaps after missing a large chunk of training camp due to COVID-19 and being inactive for two games. But the Bucs were down two running backs — Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy — due to injuries, so Brady went to Vaughn, who leaped into his QB’s arms to celebrate.
“Like Tom Brady is somebody I watched growing up. He’s 43, I’m 23 — he’s got 20 years on me,” Vaughn said. “Having him throw me my first touchdown — it just gets no better than that. Not a lot of people can say that.
“I feel like I gained a little bit of his trust catching that ball when it meant the most.”
– – –
“He still is the GOAT to us. He still is Tom Brady. Not in that starstruck kind of way, but more so his leadership and his presence,” tight end Cameron Brate said. “We respect it so much for everything he’s been able to accomplish in his career and the way he does lead the team right now, that he is still kind of up on that pedestal.
“But as far as him being some superstar, that’s like, ‘Oh, shoot, that’s Tom Brady’ — that kind of wears off after a while. It went pretty quick during training camp, when we’d see each other [or], ya know, he’s yelling at us and stuff like that.”
– – –
You can see the Bucs have become Brady’s team in many other ways.
In practice, you’ll hear Brady telling wide receiver Scotty Miller to pump his arms more and Justin Watson he’s too stiff in his routes and needs to be more fluid with his upper body. In the film room, he’s helping defensive backs like Sean Murphy-Bunting understand how to better disguise their coverages. It’s a mix of constructive feedback and positivity that trickles into meeting rooms, where he tells receivers to shave a step or two off their routes or to bend them.
“If we ran a bad route or it was incomplete, [he said], ‘Hey, don’t worry about it. We’ll get the next one.’ Then, [he’s] really encouraging when you had a good catch or you ran a good route — stuff like that,” Brate said. “But there’s been times, too, where he’s kind of gotten on guys as well if it’s not up to the standard we’re hoping for. I think he does a good job balancing the two.”
– – –
And then there’s his intensity on game day, which his new teammates have seen for four Sundays now.
“When game day comes, you finally get to see that next level of competitiveness out of Tom,” said tight end O.J. Howard, referring to the gamut of emotions and outbursts Brady and those around him experience. There’s cursing and shouting (the FCC once received three complaints on a single Sunday because of Brady’s use of the F-word) when things go wrong, and jubilation when things go right.
They love it all.
“That’s just his competitive nature,” Brate said. “I think that’s kind of what sets him apart.”
Quarterbacks coach Clyde Christensen, who was with the Indianapolis Colts from 2002 to 2015 and tutored Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, recalled being so intimidated by Brady’s game-day demeanor he was afraid to introduce himself.
“I always tease him that we played him so many times, I’d stand on that sideline and he’d do his little lap when he was loosening up and I’d always go, ‘I think I’m gonna say hello and just meet him this year, which is kind of common [among quarterbacks and quarterback coaches] and he always looked so angry, that I’d never say anything,” Christensen said. “So I never met him until he came here to Tampa.”
You could argue, in some ways, Brady’s not much different from 68-year-old coach Bruce Arians, who is known for shouting on the sideline to the point that his face turns red and spit goes flying.
“I’ve seen Tom have these bursts of energy — both of them love these bursts of energy where they have to get it out. I love it, though. I love everything about it because it’s who they are,” offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich said. “… That’s the great thing about having a guy like Tom — he brings that every day. … I think it helps our football team, especially our young guys seeing a guy like that who’s 43 years old [and] still comes out every day with that type of energy.”
Some say Brady provides a jolt that’s missing in games with no fans, and it’s felt on the other side of the ball too.
“Having great passion and energy is a key part and is something that’s gonna be very important with kind of how COVID has made it to where we don’t have fans in the stadiums,” defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh said. “I think it’s great. I think it’s a form of accountability as well, and I welcome it.”
“The guy’s an elite leader. The guy motivates people, he’s into it, he’s been really really good. It’s what we need,” Christensen said. “He’s done a great job with it. You watched it from the other side and you just knew, that to beat him, you were gonna have to kill him. That he was gonna will the thing into being. That’s what those great ones do.”
‘We caught 50 back shoulders’
The Bucs have seen vulnerability and accountability from their leader too, particularly with no offseason or preseason games. He threw two interceptions in the Bucs’ season opener at the New Orleans Saints — one of which came on a pass intended for Pro Bowl wide receiver Mike Evans.
On the next Friday, Evans stood in the corner of the end zone and caught pass after pass from Brady. The two missed about 10 days together because of a hamstring injury Evans suffered late in camp.
“We caught 50 back shoulders,” said Evans, who two days later caught that same back-shoulder pass for a 3-yard touchdown against Carolina Panthers cornerback Donte Jackson in a 31-17 win.
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Tommy, Gronky and dad jokes
Coupled with that killer instinct is a loyal teammate and friend. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, who was in so much pain after their last Super Bowl together that he couldn’t walk, jumped at the chance to come out of retirement and rejoin Brady.
The two even have an internet show on the Buccaneers’ website and YouTube Channel called “Tommy and Gronky,” where you can see Brady’s sense of humor shine through. It features the two sitting in beach chairs and sunglasses, flanked by palm trees, flamingo lawn ornaments and a small kiddie pool.
In one episode, Gronkowski asks Brady, “What’s it like being a daddy?”
Brady responds, “It’s kind of like being around you and my teammates all day.”
The two then proceed to rattle off dad jokes, including one Brady said he made up that was inspired by his daughter, Vivi, who loves ponies.
“Why couldn’t the pony sing?” Brady asks.
After a few moments, Gronkowski responds, “Ooh! Ooh! Because he was a little hoarse!” before they both sink into a fit of laughter.
Christi Bedan, the Bucs’ vice president of digital and media, saw the pair’s chemistry and approached them about doing the show, which has helped boost the Bucs’ YouTube viewership to the top of the NFL for the month of August.
“They were actually really receptive right out of the gate,” said Bedan, adding that some topics are her department’s ideas and some are the players’. “We wanted to approach them separately, not together, and it was, ‘Yeah, I’m on board. Is Rob on board?'”
“That laughter that you saw the first episode, they were laughing the whole time, like walking to the locker room afterwards,” Bedan said. “That was such a genuine reaction and they’ve had a blast.”
The playfulness is a stark contrast from what Christensen thought Brady was all about.
“All those years in Indy, you just kind of — I thought that everything that came out of New England was dark. I painted a mental picture of Darth Vader and his crew up there,” Christensen said in an interview on the Buccaneers Radio Network. “And you then meet him and he’s about as nice a guy as you could possibly meet. So I had to change some paradigms and shift some things and un-brainwash all my grandkids and kids.”
Christensen still teases Brady about looking so angry. Brady gets a kick out of it, and gives it right back to him, joking during the Bucs’ first scrimmage that they must have used piped-in crowd noise at the old RCA Dome where the Colts used to play.
“It’s been really delightful and really a pleasure,” Christensen said of getting to know Brady. “A fine human, not just a football player, but a fine human being and a good man, a good father, a good husband, a good son. I admire a lot about him — a great worker.”
Brady is apparently about to become a Tampa Bay area homeowner. TMZ.com:
Tom Brady has his sights set on a Tampa Bay-area mansion — a $7.5 million waterfront estate in a private community, TMZ Sports has learned.
We’re told Brady is in the final stages of a deal and it’s expected to close later this week. He’ll become the proud new owner of a 5-bedroom modern crib in a gated community in Clearwater, Florida that was custom built in 2015.
Remember, Brady and his family had moved into Derek Jeter’s mansion in the Tampa area back in April after TB12 signed with the Bucs.
But, since Jeter is selling the place for $29 mil — and Brady can afford his own spot — the QB went house hunting and has apparently decided to pull the trigger.
The new home — listed by real estate agent Sophia Vasilaros — is 8,548 square feet with 5 full baths and 3 half baths (8 toilets in all!) and it’s right on the water with its own private dock.
Inside, the home has a private gym, theater room, billiard room, media center … oh, and it also has an elevator!
And, if Tom’s looking to expand, there’s an empty lot next door that’s also for sale.
Again, we’re told it’s not a done deal at this point but it’s expected to wrap up real soon.
It’s good to be rich.
The DB is not so sure that Brady’s new mansion is in a “gated community.”
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AFC WEST
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KANSAS CITY
QB PATRICK MAHOMES went face to unmasked face with Covid-carrying Patriots CB STEPHON GILMORE – and now everyone in Chiefs Nation is holding their breath like they wish Mahomes had. Adam Teicher of ESPN.com:
Patrick Mahomes called it “a little bit of a mental lapse” that he got close to Stephon Gilmore after Monday night’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots. Gilmore later tested positive for COVID-19.
“I was just trying to show respect to a great football player who I hope is getting better very quickly,” Mahomes said Wednesday. “I’ll just try to keep away from that and try not to do it again.”
Gilmore said in a tweet Wednesday that he is currently asymptomatic.
“I’ve followed every protocol, yet it happened to me,” he said. “Please be sure to take this seriously.”
The Chiefs last week had a practice squad quarterback, Jordan Ta’amu, test positive for COVID-19. Mahomes said he was able to stay at least 6 feet away from Ta’amu in meetings, which he said Ta’amu sometimes attended virtually.
Mahomes still slept in a bedroom apart from his pregnant fiancée, Brittany Matthews, for the first couple of nights — until results of his own tests came back negative.
“I’ve just tried to do my part to kind of keep myself away from her and social distance whenever stuff like this arises,” he said. “It’s something I think about every day. You have to think about that with her being pregnant, kind of that high-risk category. I just try to do my best, especially after finding out Jordan was positive.”
Since the start of training camp, the Chiefs have had some players occasionally attend meetings virtually, as Mahomes said Ta’amu sometimes did. They have eliminated the cafeteria at their practice and training facility, turning the space into a meeting room for their offensive linemen. They use their indoor practice field as a space for team meetings.
“After meetings, it looks like an Indy crew coming through … changing the tires, putting tables away and chairs away and everything else,” coach Andy Reid said.
The positive tests for Gilmore and Ta’amu appear to have the attention of wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who said he was wearing face protection in addition to a face mask in an effort to avoid contracting the virus.
“I’ve got the Coach Reid visor going today,” he said.
The Chiefs are scheduled to play the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. The Raiders recently had a player, defensive tackle Maurice Hurst, test positive for COVID-19, a league source told ESPN’s Dianna Russini.
“We take it day by day, and we try to do the best we possibly can at keeping ourselves as clean as we can and at the same time learn every day,” Reid said. “We’re all wearing masks. We’ve been doing that. … We try to keep our nose and our mouth covered as best we possibly can and then try to be as safe as we can off the field.
“Every day is a new experience that you’ve kind of got to work through, and that’s what we’re doing.”
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AFC NORTH
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BALTIMORE
QB LAMAR JACKSON has a knee injury that might be worth keeping an eye on. Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com:
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury, but a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter that it is not considered serious.
Jackson, the reigning NFL MVP, was held out for “precautionary reasons” heading into Sunday’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals, the source added.
This is only the third practice that Jackson has missed during the regular season in his three-year NFL career. It’s the first time this has happened since he was absent from a Week 10 practice last November with an illness.
Jackson was removed from Sunday’s 31-17 win in Washington with 4:24 remaining in the game. It was assumed Jackson was pulled because Baltimore was leading by 21 points at the time.
Since taking over as the Ravens’ starter midway through the 2018 season, Jackson has been hit 340 times, which is 112 more than any other quarterback. But he has been durable and has yet to miss a start during his 26-game run.
Jackson didn’t mention an injury when he spoke to reporters on a teleconference about 90 minutes before the start of Wednesday’s practice.
With Jackson sidelined, Robert Griffin III took the reps with the first-team offense.
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CLEVELAND
Ted Nguyen of The Athletic on the Browns’ secret weapon – new offensive line coach Bill Callahan:
Damien Woody was a Pro Bowl offensive lineman who took a unique path in his 12 seasons in the NFL. He began his career as a center and worked his way out to guard and then finally to tackle. He was the Benjamin Button of offensive linemen but instead of reverse aging, he reversed position movement. Usually, as linemen get older and slower, they might get kicked inside but Woody made his way outside as he got older. Also, he felt like he played the best football of his career in his last three seasons in the league playing right tackle. For that, he thanked his offensive line coach with the Jets: Bill Callahan.
“(Callahan) worked with me with so many tools to help me play the position of tackle at a higher level,” Woody said. “I think I probably played my best football at tackle. I started my career at center then I went to guard. My last three years, I played tackle and he just had me humming — that doesn’t happen in pro football.”
These days, Callahan is working on a much bigger project. He’s attempting to rebuild the entire Cleveland Browns offensive line that stuggled last season. And so far, so good. In 2019, the Browns ranked 31st in ESPN’s run block win rate. This season, they rank second. Surprisingly, they ranked sixth in pass block win rate in 2019, but made the jump to third this season.
The interior line, which was likely largely responsible for its high pass blocking win rate in 2019, remained intact. Right guard Wyatt Teller, center JC Tretter, and left guard Joel Bitonio were always good but they’ve taken their games to another level this season under the tutelage of Callahan. Teller is Pro Football Focus’ highest-rated guard through four games since 2006.
“We are still working on a lot of things with (Teller), but we are really proud of his progress so far,” said Callahan before facing the Washington Football Team in Week 3. “He has not come close to where he can be. We have some great hopes for him to improve even more so.”
The tackle position is where the Browns had trouble last season. Adding right tackle Jack Conklin as a free agent solidified that side of the line, while drafting tackle Jedrick Wills 10th overall is already paying dividends.
“You talk about a system fit, you could not get a more perfect tackle in free agency than Jack,” Callahan said on a Zoom conference in May. “He fits the model for the wide zone game and his pass protection sets, how he short sets and he jumps at the line of scrimmage, which is a tough skill to acquire. Then of course in third down and later downs, you can watch him set vertically and you can see his variance of sets. He has the toolbox and he has the skill set to do quite well.”
Though Wills played right tackle in college, he made the transition to the left side look easy — he’s one of the highest performing rookies in the league. There was little doubt that Conklin would play well but Wills’ play is a pleasant surprise, considering he had to switch sides with a shortened offseason without any preseason games. During the offseason, when they couldn’t meet, Callahan would send Wills drills to do and Wills would record himself and send it back to Callahan for coaching points. It wasn’t ideal but it worked. Wills’ rapid development is a true credit to the job that Callahan is doing.
I asked Woody what makes Callahan one of the best in the business and he listed four reasons:
1. Attention to detail
“He’s so detail-orientated. Feet and hands— he just reps them every day,” Woody said. “He is relentless about it: Your steps and making sure you’re not taking false steps and not crossing over. He reps those things religiously.”
A lot of coaches are detail-orientated or they wouldn’t be coaches but Callahan takes it to another level and it’s apparent when you hear him talk about technique or scheme. The complexity in which he could break down every detail involved in offensive line play is impressive. He coaches everything from hand placement, how your head is tilted, the arch of your back, even which toe you are supposed to push off of.
2. Problem solver
“He’s a problem solver. Whatever questions you have — he has an answer for,” Woody said. “He knows how to solve problems in pass protection, run game. He knows how to solve problems.”
As a coach, it is your job to have answers for your players. The more actionable solutions you can provide, the greater value you have to the team. Callahan has more than 40 years of coaching experience to draw from. He’s seen and has answers for nearly any problem his offensive line could have.
3. Great run game designer
“He is a great designer of the run game,” Woody said. “When I was with the Jets, we ran every scheme known to man. We ran so many different schemes that teams just didn’t know what we were going to do week to week.”
When head coach Kevin Stefanski took the Browns job, everyone knew that they would run outside zone. It’s a hard scheme to learn and often it takes a season for an offense to really learn it. Part of the reason why learning it is difficult is that it requires trust and chemistry that’s hard to build without experience together. The Browns interior already had a season together under its belts and Conklin and Wills have been seamless fits.
4. Ability to build trust
“Ultimately, he just really trusts his players,” said Woody. “We would have our Friday meetings and he would ask us: ‘Guys, what do you guys want to run?’ At the end of the week, we’re going to run whatever you’re comfortable running. He would ask us individually by name. He would take those runs and tell the offensive coordinator and that’s what we ran.”
Trust is paramount for the offensive line. They’re constantly helping each other and if one lineman is expecting help and doesn’t get it, the play could end in disaster and embarrassment. By showing his players that he trusts them, Callahan is building a culture of trust and though it may seem sappy, it does translate on the field when you know your coach trusts you to make the right decisions and you can trust your teammates to do their jobs.
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In Week 1, the line performed decently against the Ravens even though the box score might not reflect it. In Weeks 2 and 3, they played well against the Bengals and Washington Football Team, who have two of the more talented defensive lines despite their losing records. In Week 4, they annihilated the Cowboys defensive front, rushing for 307 yards. While Mayfield is learning a new system, the Browns running game and ability to protect him are putting him in a position where he doesn’t have to do too much. In the first quarter of the season, the Browns look like a much-improved team and the revamped offensive line under Callahan’s guidance is the engine driving their early success.
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AFC SOUTH
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HOUSTON
Apparently, the plan is that Jack Easterby will compliantly serve as interim GM until owner Cal McNair hires a GM not named Jack Easterby. Then that GM will be glad to have Easterby as the vice president of football operations as said GM hires a new coach. Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:
The Texans fired General Manager and coach Bill O’Brien on Monday. They immediately named Romeo Crennel as interim head coach.
Jack Easterby, the executive vice president of football operations, will serve as interim General Manager until the position is filled after the season, John McClain of the Houston Chronicle reports.
The G.M. will get to hire his own head coach, Texans owner Cal McNair told McClain.
“We’ll search for a General Manager first, find the right guy, and then we’ll hire the coach,” McNair said. “Jack’s agreed to be the interim General Manager while we conduct our search. Once we find the right G.M., Jack will return to his position as executive vice president of football operations.”
McNair will hire a search firm to get the search “started,” but he will head the Texans’ search committee.
In the 2019 offseason, the Texans interviewed two African-Americans, Ray Farmer and Martin Mayhew, for their General Manager vacancy. They then tried to hire Nick Caserio for the job. After Caserio couldn’t get out of his Patriots’ contract, the Texans hired no one for the job.
O’Brien eventually got it.
The Fritz Pollard Alliance expressed concern at the time about the Texans’ Rooney Rule compliance.
“We’re going to do this the right way,” McNair told McClain on Wednesday. “We’ll start the interview process after the season and follow the league’s protocols.”
The Texans will cast a wide net, assuring they get “as many good candidates as possible for both positions,” McNair said.
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TENNESSEE
So when the Titans facilty was closed last week by NFL mandate, some of the team’s players went to a private school and had a workout.
There are rumblings that such an act, plus unnamed other violations, are going to bring the full wrath of NFL Medical Justice down on Tennessee. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com finds himself, in this instance, all in on letting the Titans have it.
The Titans already faced a potentially significant punishment for alleged protocol breaches that fueled an outbreak of COVID-19. Given the news that the team apparently gathered to practice last week after expressly being told not to do so, the Titans could be facing a consequence the likes of which the NFL has never seen.
There’s buzz in league circles of possible “historic” punishment for the Titans given the various violations.
“Especially if Troy [Vincent] was the one that told them not to practice,” one league source opined.
Questions also linger regarding what the Titans knew, when they knew it, and when they shared it with the league office or the Vikings, Tennessee’s Week Three opponent.
Some in league circles already think the league is inclined to punish teams for outbreaks, reasoning that the league’s protocols will prevent problems if followed and that, if problems happen, protocols must not have been followed. Throw in the apparently deliberate effort to defy instructions by the league to stand down during an outbreak in order to prevent it from exacerbating, and the NFL could soon make past punishment imposed on the Patriots seem like parking tickets.
Darin Gantt, also of ProFootballTalk.com, with more on what might have gone down:
The NFL and NFLPA are looking into allegations that the Titans had an unsanctioned off-campus workout last week when their facility was closed because of a COVID-19 outbreak.
And now, they have pictures to look at.
According to Paul Kuharsky of PaulKuharsky.com, a group of Titans players worked out together at Montgomery Bell Academy on Sept. 30 despite the league saying not to, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill was among the group.
Guard Rodger Saffold suggested some degree of gathering, when he retweeted’s Kuharsky’s story and added: “Guys just don’t work out for fun this is for their lively hood, their family, their opportunity. Say what you want but I’m standing up for my team always.”
Students at the private school saw a group of adult football players going through workouts, and there are photos from a distance that makes it hard to indentify any particular players that way. But a source told Kuharsky he saw Tannehill there.
When the quarterback spoke to reporters by videoconference that day, he said it was important to stay ready, not knowing what was ahead of them.
“You can’t sit around on the couch for a week and be on a Zoom meeting and expect to go be at a physical peak on a Sunday, or whenever the game is going to be,” Tannehill said on Sept. 30. “It’s going to look a little bit different for everybody, what they’re able to do, where they’re able to work out, in a garage, in a gym somewhere, I’m not even sure.
“Every man on this team is charged with prepping themselves, getting their bodies right, making sure that we’re running, we’re conditioned, and ready to go whenever the game comes around. . . . I’m just going to make sure that I’m getting throws in and ready to go and throw the ball well when the game comes around.”
If the league is able to substantiate the workouts, the Titans would likely face significant punishment.
The Titans have 10 players and nine staff members diagnosed with COVID_19.
Doug Farrar of USA TODAY demands that the NFL shut down the Titans season now, damn the consequences:
When longtime Titans reporter Paul Kuharsky reported that multiple Titans players engaged in a private workout last week in violation of NFL protocol while the team’s COVID numbers were increasing, that should have made the blood of everybody in the NFL run cold. If you think about the worst scandals in NFL history — whether it’s BountyGate, or the Michael Vick dogfighting scandal, or the Paul Horning gambling scandal, or SpyGate — outside of BountyGate, there is no similar violation of NFL protocol that has the potential to threaten more people in and around the league. And when you add the contagion factor, and the fact that anyone in close contact with a player can catch the virus, it could be argued that this is the most disturbing and actionable offense in NFL history.
Worse than Gregg Williams telling his defensive players, “Kill the head, and the body will die?” Worse than the Patriots upsetting competitive balance with their various trickerations? Worse than the specter of gambling on a sport? Worse than the unspeakable acts against animals Vick supported?
When you break it down, yes. And when you then factor in the defiance of the players involved…
…and the fact that the NFL is trying to balance on a tripwire with the coronavirus right now — never mind the rampant and severe health concerns — it becomes obvious that a severe message must be sent.
With all due respect, the loss of draft picks or cap space in future years does nothing to deter teams from going outside COVID protocols now. Even if the Titans were forced to forfeit games this season, there’s a likely scenario in which they’d be able to reach the postseason.
So, what’s the appropriate punishment that deters these actions without negatively affecting other teams that are staying within the rules?
Shut the Titans down for the rest of the season. As in, the Tennessee Titans’ 2020 season is over at 3-0. No more games, no playoffs, no meetings, no practices, nothing. Your season is over, guys, and you asked for it. Given the rampant positive tests, there’s no indication as to how or when the Titans would be able to play again anyway.
Of course, jettisoning one team out of a 32-team league in-season would create a logistical nightmare from a scheduling standpoint, but aren’t we there already? Didn’t the Steelers already have to move their Week 4 game with the Titans to Week 7? Didn’t the Ravens already have to move their Week 7 game with the Steelers to Week 8? Aren’t the Bills already in limbo right now, hoping against hope that this Titans team can string together enough negative tests to get back on the field? The Titans are scheduled to play the Texans on October 18. Anybody reading this think that game isn’t already on ice? What about any other opponent the Titans have on their schedule? How badly do you think it’s going to screw up the Steelers’ season if they have postpone the Titans game again?
No, the Titans have created this monster, and they should be the ones to pay for it with the end of their season. The NFL did just fine with 31 member clubs from 1999 (when the new Browns were created) through 2001 (before the Texans started up in 2002), and the NFL can do it again. Anything less than a death penalty for the Titans at this point is a toothless, futile, and potential dangerous exercise.
Question – would the players still get paid?
That comes up in this from Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
Earlier this week, the Commissioner informed teams that outbreaks caused by team failure to follow COVID-19 protocols could result in a game being forfeited. With the Titans, who apparently have committed multiple protocol breaches, potentially forced to miss a second straight game, a forfeit could be an option.
Judy Battista of NFL Media reports that, as of Wednesday afternoon, a forfeit hadn’t been discussed. Now that the Titans have yet another player who has generated a positive COVID-19 result only three days before kickoff, that could change.
A forfeit would raise plenty of questions. Would CBS be entitled to a partial refund, since it didn’t get to televise one of the games that it has paid to broadcast? More importantly, would the Bills and/or the Titans players be paid?
Some have suggested that the players already have agreed to not be paid for games not played. The language of the August 3 letter agreement, however, mentions only games that are “cancelled or suspended” and that aren’t played later in the year. The NFL Players Association could, and should, argue that the players have not agreed to surrender game checks in the event of a forfeit.
Indeed, the official rulebook contemplates the possibility of a forfeit, providing in Rule 11, Section 1, Article 1 that the final score of a forfeited game will be 2-0. In a normal year, no one ever would suggest that players shouldn’t be paid for a forfeited game. So why would they not be paid for a forfeit in 2020, especially when the agreement allowing the league to withhold pay for games “cancelled or suspended” does not expressly include forfeits, which necessarily are different from a cancellation or suspension, because a forfeited game goes into the standings with a winner and a loser?
The possibility that the Bills and Titans will owe game checks to players becomes a very good a reason to not declare a forfeit. And if it comes to that, the financial punishment imposed on the Titans should include making their own payroll for the week, along with Buffalo’s.
Absent a forfeit, the league has a mess on its hands. Since the Titans had an unscheduled bye in Week Four, there’s no open week for Tennessee to play the game later in the year. Moving the game to Monday isn’t an option, since the Bills play the Chiefs next Thursday night.
We don’t see why the Bills players should not be paid. They and their organization did nothing wrong. You probably could make a case for stiffing the Titans.
– – –
The drip-drip-drip of positive tests continued on Thursday. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
Another day, another player on the Tennessee Titans testing positive for COVID-19.
Today one more Titans player has tested positive, according to multiple reports, and another test that was previously returned as inconclusive from the day before is also now listed as positive.
The Titans’ facility remains closed, as it has all of this week and all of last week.
Although the Titans have a game scheduled on Sunday against the Bills, there are serious questions about whether that game can be played at all. Moving it to Monday night, as the NFL did with Patriots-Chiefs last week, wouldn’t work because the Bills play a Thursday night game just three days later.
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AFC EAST
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BUFFALO
Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com labels the 4-0 Bills as one of three STRONG CONTENDERS.
Buffalo Bills
AFC East · 4-0
Josh Allen’s immense improvement (+12.1 completion percentage and +37.4 passer rating from 2019) in Brian Daboll’s architecture, Buffalo’s continuity and high-level results from the O-line, along with the addition of Stefon Diggs, have resulted in the third-year quarterback boasting a sparkling touchdown-to-interception ratio (12:1) and the second-highest yards-per-attempt rate (9.0) in the NFL. This offense also ranks third in big plays (passes of 20-plus yards + runs of 10-plus yards), another metric of success that, if the trend holds, will be a big factor for the Bills beyond the regular season.
The Packers and Chiefs are the other two STRONG CONTENDERS.
The Seahawks, Titans and Steelers are CONTENDERS.
The Buccaneers and Eagles are PRETENDERS.
The Ravens, Rams, Patriots and Saints are among the teams that presumably rank lower? Really?
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NEW ENGLAND
As for the Patriots, Jane McManus wonders about the wisdom of putting those who interacted with CAM NEWTON on a separate plane:
@janesports
Basically the Patriots took a group of players who should have been quarantining, put them in a plane, and then exposed them to each other for a prolonged time and other personnel for shorter times. Good job, NFL.
We assume, perhaps erroneously, that the 14 friends of Cam were spread out around the large plane.
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THIS AND THAT
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4TH DOWN
Teams are going for it more on 4th down in 2020 – and making it more often. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
NFL scoring is at an all-time high this season, and that’s in part thanks to teams going for it on fourth down more often this year, and converting more often as well.
So far this season, NFL offenses have stayed on the field for 154 fourth downs, and converted 85 of them, or 55 percent. That puts teams on pace to go for it 626 times, and convert 345 of them. Last season, NFL offenses stayed on the field for 609 first downs and converted 276 of them, or 45 percent.
The numbers are particularly stark on fourth-and-1: As noted by Michael Lopez of the league’s Data & Analytics department, as recently as 2017, NFL teams went for it on fourth-and-1 less than half of the time. Now NFL teams are going for it 69 percent of the time on fourth-and-1, and they’re converting 77 percent of those attempts.
More teams going for it, and succeeding, on fourth down means more offenses ultimately scoring touchdowns. The increase in scoring can at least in part be attributed to NFL coaches getting smarter about trusting their offenses on fourth down.
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1st QUARTER AWARDS
Bill Barnwell hands out his awards for the 1st quarter of the season. An edited version below:
The important thing to keep in mind here is that I’m voting solely based on what has happened over the first month of the season; I’m not voting on who I think will win at the end of the season.
I’ll be handing out six of the traditional awards, including Coach of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookie and Player of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, and league MVP. I’ll also throw in a lightning round where I pick players for some awards that should exist but haven’t yet made it to the ballot. Let’s start with the rookies, where one side of the ballot is stacked:
Offensive Rookie of the Year
When I started thinking about this award, I was overwhelmed by candidates. My pick after two weeks might have been New York Jets left tackle Mekhi Becton, but he has played just under 34% of the snaps over the past two weeks while dealing with a shoulder injury. Fellow linemen Tristan Wirfs (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Jedrick Wills Jr. (Cleveland Browns) and Mike Onwenu (New England Patriots) also deserve attention, with the latter spending time at left guard, right guard and right tackle already for New England. These awards, unfortunately, almost never reward linemen.
For the skill-position guys, moderate usage kept several notables from hitting this list. Washington back Antonio Gibson leads the league in rushing DVOA, but he has just 44 carries so far. Laviska Shenault Jr. looks like a really intriguing weapon for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but the Colorado product is averaging a little over six touches per game and hasn’t been as explosive on those touches as other receivers. On the other hand, Jonathan Taylor has taken over as the primary back in Indianapolis after Marlon Mack’s injury, but he’s averaging 3.8 yards per carry and is 31st in success rate.
In the end, I had six candidates for three spots. I realize that this hasn’t been the easiest September for Oklahoma fans, but let me throw another slight onto the pile …
3. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
I have to put Jefferson ahead of fellow rookie wideout CeeDee Lamb, although both have been great to start their careers. Lamb deserves a commendation as one of the few Cowboys who haven’t fumbled so far, and while Dallas has had plenty of mouths to feed in its passing game, Lamb has averaged 10.7 yards per target. His catch and run late in the fourth quarter against the Falcons set up his team’s lone win.
All of that would make Lamb a lock for this list if Jefferson wasn’t averaging 17.4 yards per target. He has racked up only 16 receptions in four games, but he has caught 80% of his passes despite seeing those throws travel an average of 13.5 yards in the air.
Four games is a small sample, and you don’t want to get too carried away, but Jefferson is off to a special start.
2. James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Yes, Robinson comes in slightly ahead of Chiefs star Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has to settle for an honorable mention nod this time around. My first instinct was that Robinson would be the one coming up just short, but after taking a closer look, I have to go with the undrafted free agent.
Why? Robinson has been more efficient by virtually every rate metric I can find, including yards per carry, rushing DVOA, rushing success rate, yards per reception, yards per target, yards per touch and receiving DVOA, where he’s No. 1 in the league through four weeks.
1. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
It’s hard to play quarterback in the NFL. It’s especially hard when your offensive line ranks 25th in pass block win rate through four games. Most teams would respond to their offensive line issues and the presence of a 23-year-old rookie quarterback by keeping things simple and trying to take as much of the load off him as possible.
The Bengals had Burrow throw 61 times in Week 2, the second-most pass attempts we’ve seen from a quarterback in league history. He has thrown 46 passes out of empty sets, 13 more than anybody else in the league. The No. 1 overall pick has generally done a good job of protecting the football and has been something close to a league-average quarterback under difficult circumstances while putting the Bengals in position to win at Philadelphia before claiming his first win on Sunday against the Jags. The rookie receivers and running backs have been spectacular, but being an effective quarterback is more valuable than being a star anywhere else.
What about Justin Herbert? The Chargers’ first-rounder has unquestionably been impressive, and he’s within a couple of plays of starting his career 2-1, but missing that Week 1 game behind Tyrod Taylor hurts his chances. Missing one game out of 16 when we evaluate awards at the end of the season is no big deal. Missing one out of four when that one game represents a quarter of the season, as it does here, is another story. If Herbert continues to post a 73.6 Total QBR, he’s going to be in the discussion.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Perhaps owing to how dismally defenses have played over the first month of the season, there aren’t as many viable candidates for Defensive Rookie of the Year through the first month. Rookies have combined for 15 sacks through four games, down from 25.5 in 2019 and 33 in 2018. In part, that’s simply because they’re not playing many snaps; rookie defenders have combined for just 1,477 snaps through the first month after averaging 2,730 over the prior two seasons.
For now, though, two of my three picks come in the defensive backfield:
3. Patrick Queen, LB, Baltimore Ravens
It almost seems unfair. The Ravens needed an inside linebacker to replace C.J. Mosley, who left in free agency in 2019, and while they got by last season, having Queen fall into their laps at No. 28 in April’s draft was almost too good to be true. Queen hasn’t been Mosley through four games, but he has been impressive for a rookie.
2. Jaylon Johnson, CB, Chicago Bears
Finding a rookie cornerback who is good enough to stay on the field from Week 1 without being shredded is rare. Landing on a rookie corner who can actually hold his own and even excel from the jump is even rarer, and the Bears have to be delighted with what they’ve seen from Johnson.
1. Antoine Winfield Jr., S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What’s even more uncommon, though, is a rookie who excels in multiple positions from the start. Winfield is listed as a free safety, but lined up some at free safety, strong safety and slot corner. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles loves to blitz his defensive backs and send speed into the backfield, and Winfield — who ran 4.45 40-yard dash at the NFL combine — is flying all over the field. He has two sacks, three quarterback hits and a tackle for loss, and he forced a fumble that set up a Bucs touchdown against the Panthers.
Coach of the Year
This nod usually tends to reward new coaches who turn around franchises that were struggling the prior year, but last year John Harbaugh (Ravens) topped Kyle Shanahan (49ers) and Matt LaFleur (Packers) for the AP award. As a result, we have a mix of candidates in here after the first quarter of the season, with Pete Carroll (Seahawks) as the last man out:
3. Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns
It would be one thing to say that the Browns were a laughingstock last season; realistically, they were a laughingstock as recently as Week 1, when they lost 38-6 to the Ravens. The same old Browns have proceeded to … win three straight, leaving them at 3-1 for the first time since 2001.
Cleveland has a league-leading 118 points over that time frame, and while it’s fair to note that it went up against the Bengals, Washington and Cowboys across that three-game run, it’s not as if its recent track record gives the franchise a high bar to clear. Installing the run-first, play-action-heavy offense we saw from the Vikings a year ago, Stefanski has quarterback Baker Mayfield playing smart, efficient football. Frankly, that might be more important than the win-loss record for Browns fans.
2. Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills
It’s always difficult to separate a great coach from great players, great scouting and great drafting. I don’t want to disrespect Buffalo’s players or the work of general manager Brandon Beane, but when I look at what the Bills have done over the past few years, the reason I lean on McDermott as arguably the most important part of their turnaround is one question: How many players come to Buffalo and get better?
So many free agents have come to this organization and looked better than they did elsewhere, starting with safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde in 2017 and running all the way through to this past week, when cornerback Josh Norman made his Bills debut and immediately forced a fumble to help give his team a win in Las Vegas.
McDermott deserves recognition both for what he has done during his tenure in Buffalo and what he has done specifically in 2020.
The only reason McDermott isn’t No. 1 is because the defense, which is considered his specialty, hasn’t been the focal point of the team. Success is more closely aligned with specialty for the guy atop the rankings after four weeks …
1. Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
You could argue that the AP snubbed LaFleur last season, when he took a Packers team that had gone 6-9-1 under Mike McCarthy and Joe Philbin to 13-3. There were some reasons to think that record was generous, but despite some idiots thinking the Packers would decline in 2020, they have been an absolute juggernaut.
I’ll get to more of their numbers on offense when I write about Aaron Rodgers later, but Green Bay leads the league in offensive DVOA and points per drive despite spending most of the season without a healthy Davante Adams. The Packers have scored 30 points in each of their first four games for the first time in franchise history; the last time they did it even three times was 2011, when Rodgers & Co. went 15-1. That team outscored its opponents by 51 points over the first month of the season. So has this one. No snub this time, at least through four weeks.
Comeback Player of the Year
As many people have suggested, this would be quarterback Alex Smith’s award if he steps onto the field to take a snap in 2020. With Washington benching Dwayne Haskins for Kyle Allen on Wednesday, Smith is one step closer to returning. Until then, there’s no shortage of viable options, with Kelechi Osemele (Chiefs) and Jerick McKinnon (49ers) narrowly missing out on the top three:
3. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Roethlisberger’s return has almost been too quiet and taken for granted. After all, this is a 38-year-old quarterback known for his ability to take punishment who was coming off an elbow surgery we don’t typically see quarterbacks undergo. There was no guarantee that the Steelers were going to get a playable quarterback this season, let alone the old Roethlisberger.
After three games, though, the future Hall of Famer looks a lot like the guy we saw in 2018.
2. Aldon Smith, DE, Dallas Cowboys
Best defender on the Cowboys is not a huge compliment in 2020, but Smith’s return after years away from the NFL is extraordinary. You might remember the Missouri product racking up 33.5 sacks over his first two NFL seasons, the most of any player in league history through their first two campaigns. What you might not remember is that those seasons came all the way back in 2011 and 2012, when the first-rounder teamed with Justin Smith for the Jim Harbaugh-era 49ers. Smith had not played a pro game since 2015 before returning to the Cowboys this season.
While Dallas has been a disaster on defense, Smith has been a bright spot.
1. Cam Newton, QB, New England Patriots
Acknowledging that Newton missed the loss to the Chiefs after testing positive for the coronavirus, is there anyone who even comes close to the Patriots quarterback? He has been a revelation in his three starts, completing more than 68% of his passes and averaging 7.8 yards per attempt while simultaneously adding just under 50 rushing yards per game. The latter mark would be a career high for Newton, who hasn’t looked this good since 2015.
Defensive Player of the Year
Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore won this award last season, but it takes a widespread consensus and a dominant season for a defensive back to win, given that the seven prior winners were front-seven defenders.
Outside of maybe Carlton Davis (Bucs) and Marlon Humphrey (Ravens), we haven’t really seen that sort of lockdown play from any cornerback so far. As a result, my three candidates here all play up front.
3. Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams
I’m never going to take a healthy Donald out of the top three for this award, because while I understand that it’ll be tough for the Rams star to win after taking home consecutive nods in 2017 and 2018, he’s still the first defensive player I would take if I were building a football team.
2. T.J. Watt, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Packers fans will want Za’Darius Smith here, and given that he’s tied for the league lead with five sacks, I can’t blame them for saying their star edge rusher belongs. I have Watt just ahead of his Packers counterpart, though, because of everything beyond sacks.
1. Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns
This really isn’t new. Over the course of his career, Garrett has had only three settings: injured, suspended or dominant. He’s neither of the first two right now, so he ranks among the best pass-rushers in football.
Offensive Player of the Year
Every year, I have to get into why this award needs to change. The MVP of the league is almost always an offensive player, so it makes no sense that someone could be the best player in football and simultaneously not the best offensive player in football. It would be like a pitcher winning MVP and not taking home the Cy Young Award. I love having an award for people who aren’t MVP candidates, but since quarterbacks almost always win that award, we should just specify that the Offensive Player of the Year goes to a non-quarterback.
Voters agree with me … sometimes. In 2017 and 2019, a pair of non-quarterbacks took home the trophy in Todd Gurley (Rams) and Michael Thomas (Saints), respectively. In between them was Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and I can’t get too mad at giving the 2018 version of Mahomes any and every award you can find. To keep this piece more interesting, though, I’m going to stick with non-quarterbacks for this honor.
The only issue is that we don’t really have an obvious receiving candidate to include in the top three. Atop the receiving yardage leaderboard, we have five stars within 16 yards of one another in Diggs, DK Metcalf (Seahawks), Amari Cooper (Cowboys), DeAndre Hopkins (Cardinals) and Terry McLaurin (Washington). It’s tough to pick between any of them, which kept all five of them out of my fake ballot. With three running backs clearly ahead of the pack, though, it was easy to identify who I wanted to be in the top three. Placing them was slightly more difficult.
3. Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
This three-back list includes the guy who has been the most productive runner and the one who has been the most productive receiver. Jones is neither, although he might be the best balance of both. He broke out as a touchdown factory last season, and while he seemed likely to regress after taking 19 of his 285 touches to the house, he has six scores on 80 touches so far this season.
The tough part in evaluating Jones is considering his usage rate. The Packers don’t like overworking him and have used him on only 56% of their snaps this season. The other backs on this list are on the field closer to 70% of the time. Should we give him credit for being so effective with fewer opportunities (theoretically opening up more opportunities for Aaron Rodgers to fling the football around) or just take his performance at face value?
The only real knock I can have on Jones over the first month of the season is that he has been less consistent than the competition. The free agent-to-be had a mammoth game against the dismal Lions defense in Week 2, racking up 236 yards from scrimmage while scoring three touchdowns. In his other three games, while he has still been productive, he has averaged 91 yards from scrimmage and a lone score. By that tiniest of margins, I have to leave Jones at No. 3.
2. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Cook, on the other hand, has had two huge games. After racking up 113 rushing yards and three scores across 26 combined carries between Weeks 1 and 2, the newly extended Vikings standout carried the ball 22 times for 181 yards and a score in the Week 3 loss to the Titans. Cook then followed up with 130 yards and two scores in Minnesota’s first win of the season, the 31-23 win over the Texans that ended Bill O’Brien’s run in Houston.
The 25-year-old comfortably leads the league in rushing yardage (424, 50 yards ahead of the second-placed Jones), rushing touchdowns (six, two more than any other player) and DYAR (124, 26 ahead of second-placed Melvin Gordon). He ranks highly in terms of rate stats such as yards per carry, DVOA and success rate. You can’t really poke a hole in what Cook has done as a rusher.
1. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
Forget Offensive Player of the Year; for stretches this season, Kamara has been almost the entirety of the Saints’ offense. Quarterback Drew Brees looked good in Week 3 and better in Week 4 against that awful Lions defense, but the one thing the legendary quarterback has been able to do each and every week is make his star running back a focal point of the attack. Kamara has shouldered a heavier portion of the workload with Michael Thomas out and delivered.
A few years ago, reports suggested Le’Veon Bell wanted to negotiate a transcendent contract because he regarded himself as both a No. 1 running back and No. 2 wideout. Bell was a legit top back at the time, but the idea that he was a No. 2 wideout was not validated by his actual performance.
Kamara, on the other hand, has really been a No. 1 running back and a borderline No. 1 wideout through four weeks. He ranks 11th in the league with 321 receiving yards, and his 30-321-3 line is virtually identical to those of wideouts such as Keenan Allen (Chargers) and Tyler Boyd (Bengals). Kamara hasn’t been a dominant rusher in the way that Cook and Jones have been through four games, but he has been better than league average in terms of DVOA and success rate while racking up 236 rushing yards.
The Saints star leads the league in yards from scrimmage and touchdowns. The only back in the league averaging more yards per touch is San Francisco’s Raheem Mostert. Kamara hasn’t fumbled. He has been the most productive non-quarterback in football so far.
The made-up awards
Coordinator of the Year: Brian Daboll, OC, Buffalo Bills. As surprising as Josh Allen’s turnaround has been, Daboll’s emergence as one of the league’s best offensive coordinators might be even more surprising. His offenses a decade ago with the Browns, Dolphins and Chiefs were nothing memorable, but his current scheme is a quintessential modern offense, with heavy doses of motion and play-action. Both he and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier should be in line for head-coaching consideration after the season.
Post-Prime Breakout of the Year: Tyson Alualu, DT, Pittsburgh Steelers. There’s no reason Alualu should be one of the NFL’s best players at age 33, five years removed from his last season as a starter with the Jaguars, but he has been dominant on the interior for the Steelers during their 3-0 start.
Under-the-Radar Breakout of the Year: Chase Winovich, DE, New England Patriots. A more traditional breakout belongs to Winovich, who was considered a steal from the moment the Michigan product fell to the Patriots in the third round of the 2019 draft. Moved into a starting role after the Patriots were ripped apart by free-agent losses and opt-outs in their front seven, Winovich has 2.5 sacks and six knockdowns in the first four games of the season. Winovich is winning on 29.5% of his pass-rush attempts this season, the fifth-best rate in in the league.
Most Underrated Player: Vita Vea, DT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I’ll do another all-underrated team later this season, and I hope that Vea isn’t on it because he has gotten the recognition he deserves. Watching Vea on tape is a joy because you’re going to see him absolutely lay waste to an opposing lineman and look like he’s a man among boys at least once per game. Vea is never going to post huge numbers, and he’s only one part of one of the best defensive lines in football, but he holds his own alongside some very expensive and talented defenders.
Most Valuable Player
Here come the quarterbacks. I’ll make the picks at the end for this one, but let’s narrow down the pool. I see five plausible candidates. One of them is the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott, who has set passing records through four games, but he has been sloppy at times and is playing on a 1-3 team. There’s no way I can realistically consider him when the other four quarterbacks are on teams that are a combined 16-0.
There are only four 4-0 teams, of course, so the four quarterbacks in consideration here are Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. If we combined those guys and their first month of the season into one 16-game quarterback campaign, they would be completing just under 71% of their passes, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and throwing for 4,959 yards with 52 touchdowns against three picks.
While he’s the most talented player in the league, Mahomes has been the fourth-most productive quarterback in this pack so far.
3. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
I’m not sure what’s crazier: the idea that Allen would be third in the MVP race after four games, or that Bills fans might realistically be able to get angry at his being only third in the MVP race after four games.
2. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
First off: We’re watching something absolutely incredible. Last season, Rodgers’ era-adjusted passer rating index stat from Pro Football Reference was 105. It’s 140 so far this season. That’s a 35-point leap, which doesn’t really happen. If you look for players who made a 35-plus-point leap in that index stat at age 35 or older, you get only guys who succeeded or failed in a small sample, like Boomer Esiason and Randall Cunningham. You have go back to someone like Earl Morrall in 1972 to find a quarterback who made a leap comparable to Rodgers’ improvement, and even he changed teams. Rodgers is on the same team with roughly the same supporting cast and has turned back into the guy who terrified opposing teams on Sundays after two or three solid seasons.
There’s a strong case to put Rodgers first. He has been incredible over the first four games and has done it without having Davante Adams for most of it. If you consider the absences of Devin Funchess, who opted out of the season, and the injured Allen Lazard, Rodgers threw for 327 yards and four touchdowns against the Falcons on Monday night without his top three receivers. Instead, he just casually threw three touchdown passes to Robert Tonyan, an undrafted tight end with 14 career catches before the season began.
The toughest part in evaluating his start is considering that context. His receivers have dropped 5.8% of his passes, including two would-be touchdowns in Week 1. Somehow, these three quarterbacks all have higher-than-normal drop rates: Wilson is at 5.1%, while Allen is at 4.1%. The league average is 3.2% through four games. Rodgers, somehow, was at 7.5% before the Falcons game. Do you give him more credit for those drops because he made catchable passes, or do you ignore it and just evaluate his final performance?
The fairest way to go about it is just to evaluate what we’ve seen without weighing drops heavily, especially given that each of the candidates has dealt with drops at a higher-than-normal rate this season. Rodgers versus Wilson then comes down to a matter of preference. Wilson’s numbers have been better, but Rodgers has played with inferior receivers. Wilson needed to be dominant for the Seahawks to beat the Patriots and Cowboys, but Rodgers has been good enough early in games to put opposing teams away before the fourth quarter. More than anything, I think it comes down to a matter of preference …
1. Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
… and I prefer Wilson. Is there some sentimentality in there? Sure. Rodgers has already won two MVP awards, and while the story about Wilson never getting an MVP vote ignores how MVP voting works, it’s fair to say that Wilson hasn’t gotten the recognition he deserves. As good as Rodgers has been — and he has been impeccable — nothing is more exciting or feels more likely to result in a completion right now than Wilson throwing the ball downfield.
I didn’t think Wilson could top what we saw from him during 2018-19, but he just finished one of the best four-game stretches we’ve ever seen from a quarterback. He has been so good that even coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer have been convinced that they need to let Russ cook.
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