THE DAILY BRIEFING
| NFC NORTH |
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CHICAGO
T ALEX LEATHERWOOD’s move to Bustville has been delayed, perhaps permanently, as the Bears get him with a waivers claim. Sam Robinson of ProFootballRumors.com:
After a woeful Raiders tenure, Alex Leatherwood will have a second chance via the NFL’s waiver system. The Bears put in a claim for the former first-round pick, Field Yates of ESPN.com tweets.
The Raiders bailed on Leatherwood after one season, marking a shocking freefall for last year’s No. 17 overall pick. The Bears, however, have also run into extensive O-line uncertainty. The rebuilding team will take a chance on the former Alabama prospect. Leatherwood’s signing bonus is the Raiders’ responsibility, leaving considerable dead money on Las Vegas’ cap sheet. But the Bears are now responsible for $5.9MM in Leatherwood salary.
Chicago, which changed up its roster considerably as it transitioned to a new GM-HC pairing this offseason, made five more waiver claims Wednesday. Defensive tackle Armon Watts, defensive back Josh Blackwell, defensive end Kingsley Jonathan, linebacker Sterling Weatherford and tight end Trevon Wesco will be en route to the Windy City as well, Yates tweets. The Bears’ six waiver claims are a league-high total this year.
This marks quite a haul for Chicago, which added former starters from Las Vegas and Minnesota. Watts started nine games for the Vikings last season, replacing the injured Michael Pierce, but the team changed defensive schemes this offseason and made a trade for former Texans second-round defensive tackle Ross Blacklock on Tuesday. That led Watts off the roster. But he will be back in a 4-3 scheme under Matt Eberflus, whose team cleared some D-tackle space by releasing Mario Edwards on Tuesday.
Viewed as a reach in last year’s first round, Leatherwood did not justify his draft slot when deployed at right tackle or right guard for the Raiders last season. The staff that drafted Leatherwood quickly moved him off right tackle, but Pro Football Focus rated him as one of the league’s worst guards. Despite the Raiders facing a few questions on their offensive line and losing Brandon Parker for the season, their new regime cut bait after trying Leatherwood at tackle again in training camp.
The Bears are expected to start fifth-round rookie Braxton Jones at left tackle, and they have 2021 fifth-rounder Larry Borom on the right side. Riley Reiff, who signed with the team shortly before camp, is also in the tackle picture. The team moved 2021 second-rounder Teven Jenkins from tackle to guard late this offseason, and while Jenkins appeared in trade rumors, he is on the roster and may well start the season at the new position. Leatherwood, his early-career struggles notwithstanding, may now also be a factor at that spot.
The experts proclaimed Leatherwood to be a reach by the Raiders before The Commish had finished speaking his name last year.
But this is his college resume:
As a senior, Leatherwood starting all 13 of Alabama’s games as the Crimson Tide won the 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship. He was named first team All-SEC and was the co-winner of the Jacobs Blocking Trophy along with Alabama center Landon Dickerson. Leatherwood was a unanimous first team All-America selection and was awarded the Outland Trophy as the nation’s best interior lineman.
Did he block no one at Alabama and just win the awards on Crimson Tide hype?
If he deserved those college awards, is the SEC, the top collegiate league, so different from the NFL somehow that those talents don’t translate?
We found this at USA TODAY from when he was drafted:
Leatherwood ranked 45th on The Athletic’s Consensus Big Board, where he was listed as the second-ranked guard. PFF listed him as the 40th-best player in this draft overall and OT8. His biggest con in the PFF Draft Guide — adjusting in space — could ultimately lead to him being better suited inside.
Las Vegas addressing its offensive line after parting ways with Rodney Hudson, Gabe Jackson and Trent Brown this offseason isn’t a bad decision. Leatherwood, a prospect who could have slipped to the second round, just doesn’t profile as the best option to fill that need at this stage of the draft. The Raiders will look for Leatherwood’s length and strength to prove the doubters wrong.”
If you just ignore the pre-draft rankings, there is a lot to like about Leatherwood. He started 41 games at Alabama in the SEC, playing left tackle and right guard. He played at the Senior Bowl and showed well during the team drills and the game.
On top of the experience, he has incredibly long arms (34″) and tested like an elite athlete at his Pro Day, running a sub-5.00-second 40-yard dash at 312 pounds. Leatherwood could stand to improve his technique, but he has now paired with one of the league’s best offensive line coaches in Tom Cable.
While this might seem like a draft-day reach, don’t be surprised if Mayock and Gruden are right on this one. Leatherwood is a fine prospect with position flexibility and the college career many players dream of having.
Time will tell if the Raiders got this one right or wrong.
– – –
LB ROQUAN SMITH says he is committed to the 2022 Bears, despite his prior demand for a trade. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
Bears linebacker Roquan Smith sat out practices and requested a trade during training camp, but now he says he’s all-in on the Bears’ 2022 season.
Smith, who is heading into the final year of his rookie contract, said he’s not giving any thought to his contract and will wait until he hits free agency after the season to worry about it.
Asked if there’s any chance he and General Manager Ryan Poles might get together and talk about a contract extension, Smith answered, “No. No. I’m not focused on that right now. It’s already in the back of my mind. It just came to the front when you mentioned it.”
Smith said that while he wanted a new contract or a trade during the offseason, that’s all in the past.
“I’m not focused on that, if I’m being completely honest,” Smith said. “My focus is on making this year the best year I can and then go from there. I don’t want to look forward too much to the future or anything like that. I’m just focused on now, having the best year I can with my teammates and playing the game I love. That’s what means the most to me.”
In talking to reporters, Smith came across as sincerely excited about the season, and not the least bit upset with the Bears failing to trade him or extend his contract. He’s focused on winning in 2022. |
| NFC EAST |
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WASHINGTON
Long-term optimism, short term caution would seem to sum up the Commanders’ position on shooting victim RB BRIAN ROBINSON. He’s on the NFI list per Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com:
Rookie running back Brian Robinson Jr made the Commanders’ initial 53-man roster this week, just days after he was shot during an attempted robbery. The team announced Thursday it has placed the third-round draft pick on the reserve/non-football injury list as he recovers from surgery for multiple gunshot wounds. Robinson will miss at least the first four games of the 2022 season while on the list, but can be activated at any point afterward if he’s ready to take the field.
Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:
Football was the last thing on anyone’s mind when Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. was shot twice in the right leg Sunday. But he was released from the hospital after surgery Monday and now is on the mend, prompting a question about when he might return.
The Commanders have no timeline.
“He is tremendously blessed and fortunate to be where he is,” General Manager Martin Mayhew said Wednesday, via Stephen Whyno of The Associated Press. “Initially when you hear something like that, you worry about the guy living, and then you worry about his health long term, and then you worry about his ability to play football. And so for him to come through that situation the way that he did is a tremendous blessing.”
Robinson, 23, was on crutches at the team facility Tuesday and Wednesday.
He was expected to start at running back for the Commanders this season. Now, Antonio Gibson returns to his starting role. J.D. McKissic also is on the roster, along with Jonathan Williams.
Robinson escaped a life-threatening or a career-ending injury, with the bullets avoiding damage to ligaments or joints in his knee. But the Commanders will consider Robinson’s mental well-being as well as physical availability before returning him to the lineup, coach Ron Rivera said.
“We know he’s got a bright future, and the future doesn’t have to be immediately now,” Rivera said. “Until he’s ready to roll, we have no intention of putting him out there.” |
| NFC WEST |
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SAN FRANCISCO
RB TREY SERMON was a hot prospect 12 months ago. Now, he is on the waiver wire. Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:
The 49ers kept five running backs on their initial 53-player roster Tuesday. They reduced it to four Wednesday.
The team cut Trey Sermon, a third-round choice in 2021, to make room for the addition of offensive lineman Blake Hance. The 49ers claimed Hence off waivers from the Browns earlier in the day.
Sermon’s departure leaves Elijah Mitchell, Jeff Wilson Jr., Tyrion Davis-Price and Jordan Mason in the running backs room.
The 49ers traded two selections to move up and select Sermon last year, but he took a backseat to Mitchell, a sixth-round choice who had 1,100 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns. Sermon appeared in only nine games as a rookie with two starts, totaling 167 rushing yards and a touchdown on 41 carries.
General Manager John Lynch said last week that “Sermon has been one of our best players” during training camp.
It seems likely that someone claims Sermon off waivers.
The 49ers also announced they signed tight end Tyler Kroft and defensive lineman Jordan Willis to one-year deals. They placed linebacker Curtis Robinson and defensive back Jimmie Ward on injured reserve. Robinson and Ward will have to miss at least four games before returning to the active roster.
Ward injured his hamstring Aug. 15, and Robinson was diagnosed with a high-ankle sprain in the third preseason game last Thursday. |
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SEATTLE
QB RUSSELL WILSON has an extension. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
Russell Wilson won’t leave Denver any time soon.
The Broncos and Wilson have agreed to a five-year contract extension, according to multiple reports. That’s on top of the two years he had remaining on his current deal, so he’s now under contract to the Broncos for seven more seasons.
The deal is worth $245 million, of which $165 million is guaranteed. That puts his total pay for the next seven seasons at $296 million.
There was never any doubt that the Broncos were committed to Wilson for the long-term when they traded three players, two first-round picks and two second-round picks to Seattle to acquire him. But now Wilson has put pen to paper and made his commitment official as well.
The 33-year-old Wilson has said he’d like to play into his 40s, so it’s possible this won’t be the last contract he signs. But there’s an excellent chance that he will play the rest of his career for the Broncos.
It’s a lot of money, but Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com is looking at the guarantees.
A wise man once said, repeatedly on ESPN, “Once is an accident, twice is a trend.” The new Russell Wilson contract suggests that the fully-guaranteed contract given to Brown quarterback Deshaun Watson was the accident, and the absence of full guarantees for veteran quarterback deals will continue to be the trend.
If anyone else was going to be getting a fully-guaranteed deal, it was Wilson. He had the leverage; the Broncos gave up a huge haul of picks to get him. He has the credentials. He went to two Super Bowls, and he’s a nine-time Pro Bowler. He has the agent, a one-client-only representative who had always driven a very hard bargain. He has a team with unlimited resources, fronted by new Wal-Mart-money owners who can write a check of any size for placement of the future payments in escrow.
But it didn’t happen. The Broncos wouldn’t do it, possibly to ensure that they don’t piss off their new partners less than a month after buying the team. And Wilson, for whatever reason, didn’t push for it. He wasn’t willing, in the end, to pass on the
While the devils of these deals always lurks in the details, it’s out of character for Wilson to commit for so long. Usually, he does a four-year extension with one year left. Now, he’s done a five-year extension with two remaining seasons.
It’s $296 million over seven years, an average of $42.2 million per year from signing. The structure will be critical to understanding this one. Will he get back to the table sooner, or will he be stuck with a contract that could become obsolete, sooner or later between now and 2028 as the cap keeps skyrocket and the market keeps climbing?
We’ll get the full details, and we’ll break them all down. Until then, here’s the takeaway, from a source with extensive knowledge of the contracts negotiated by NFL teams: “I don’t see another fully guaranteed quarterback contract any time soon.”
The DB wouldn’t have thought that Wilson threw the longest passes in the NFL last year, but the official stats say he did:
Avg Pass Length 2021
Russell Wilson 9.89 (1)
Justin Fields 9.80 (2)
Lamar Jackson 9.28 (3)
Jalen Hurts 8.99 (4)
Baker Mayfield 8.75 (5)
Matthew Stafford 8.48 (6) |
| AFC WEST |
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LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
The Chargers have taken on RB SONY MICHEL. Jordan Dajani of CBSSports.com:
The Los Angeles Chargers are signing another former member of the Los Angeles Rams, as the team announced Wednesday that it has signed running back Sony Michel after a visit to L.A. Michel was released by the Miami Dolphins ahead of this week’s 53-man roster deadline.
Michel was a relatively surprising cut, as he has legitimate starting experience and signed with the Dolphins back in May. First-year head coach Mike McDaniel made his money scheming for successful rushing offenses, but he has a crowded running back room in Miami that includes the likes of Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert and Myles Gaskin.
Last season for the Rams, Michel rushed for 845 yards and four touchdowns in 17 games played with seven starts. In the Super Bowl LVI victory, he rushed two times for 2 yards. Originally a first-round pick of the New England Patriots back in 2018, Michel recorded at least 981 yards from scrimmage in each of his first two NFL seasons. Just 27 years old, Michel has rushed 743 times for 3,137 yards and 18 touchdowns in 55 regular-season games played.
L.A.’s running back room is of course led by Austin Ekeler, but the No. 2 spot is rather open. The Chargers kept three running backs on their 53-man roster behind Ekeler with Joshua Kelley, Larry Rountree III and the rookie Isaiah Spiller. One could be gone with this most recent transaction.
Michel has been on four teams now in the last year and a week. He was traded by the Patriots to the Rams on August 25, 2021, then signed with Miami in May. |
| AFC NORTH |
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BALTIMORE
T RONNIE STALEY has a re-structured contract. Kevin Oestreicher of USA TODAY:
The Baltimore Ravens have made plenty of roster moves over the past few weeks. From trimming their roster to 53 players to adding veterans the team is trying to get better in every way they can and leaving no stone unturned.
On Tuesday, it was reported by Field Yates of ESPN that Baltimore restructured the contract of star offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley. The move frees $6.34875 million, increasing the Ravens’ cap space from around $8.9 million to around $15.3 million
Stanley signed a five-year, $98.75 million extension with Baltimore in the middle of the 2020 season, but suffered a horrific ankle injury just four days later. He’s played in just one game since the injury, and is looking to return to the field at some point after being removed from the PUP list late last week. |
| AFC EAST |
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BUFFALO
An update on CB TRE’DAVIOUS WHITE from Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
The Bills took all the time they had before making a decision about whether to activate cornerback Tre’Davious White from the physically unable to perform list before cutting their roster to 53 players on Tuesday, but they ultimately chose not to take him off the list.
That decision means that White will miss at least the first four games of the season as he continues to make his way back from last season’s torn ACL. On Thursday, Bills General Manager Brandon Beane wouldn’t say if White will be back for the fifth game, but that they are “closing in on a timeline internally” for the cornerback to return to the field and that they expect him to play a “considerable” number of games this season. |
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THIS AND THAT |
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THE AFC 1 to 16
Mike Sando of The Athletic has a secret panel of NFL Insiders – and he asked them to rank the AFC for top to bottom.
AFC teams claimed eight of the top 12 quarterbacks in my 2022 QB Tiers survey of 50 NFL coaches and executives this summer. The AFC is clearly the tougher of the two NFL conferences, but there is great potential for volatility through most of the ranks, based on a range of variables.
For the second September in a row, I’ve enlisted five NFL front-office veterans to provide 1-16 rankings for the teams in each conference heading into the season. We’ll unveil the AFC results below, followed by NFC results Friday. Both pieces include explanations and insights from the execs, who disagreed rather sharply on several teams, including the Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts and Las Vegas Raiders.
Teams are ordered first by average vote and then by median vote, from the Buffalo Bills at the top to the Houston Texans at the bottom. The five execs’ ballots are revealed in the table, followed by commentary and analysis.
1. Buffalo Bills
Votes: 3-1-2-1-1 | Avg: 1.6 | Median: 1
The Bills will have to recover from their excruciating playoff defeat to the Chiefs last season. The execs think they are well-positioned to do so despite losing offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to a head coaching job.
“I’m clear on them (being the top team in the AFC) because, take the quarterback out of it, they have done an excellent job building up their depth,” one of the execs said. “Across the board, I don’t think there are many holes in that roster. Running back by committee might have been a weakness for them last season, but adding James Cook to what they got going allows them to be more creative in the run game now.”
2. Kansas City Chiefs
Votes: 1-5-1-2-2 | Avg: 2.2 | Median: 2
The Chiefs have Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, so no one is going to be surprised if they win the AFC or even the Super Bowl. But there are some question marks.
The voter ranking Kansas City only fifth in the AFC raised concerns about the Chiefs’ offensive tackles and pointed to Tyreek Hill’s departure and the overall strength of the AFC West as reasons he dropped the Chiefs so low. This voter thought the AFC West winner could be whichever team filled an across-the-division need at right tackle. He noted that every team but the Chiefs added a high-profile veteran pass-rusher this offseason, from Chandler Jones in Las Vegas to Khalil Mack in Los Angeles to Randy Gregory in Denver.
“Their secondary is paper thin,” another voter said of the Chiefs.
I asked this voter to finish a sentence beginning with, “The Chiefs win the Super Bowl if …”
“They win the Super Bowl if they win the attrition battle,” this voter said. “They could be relying on a rookie to play heavy snaps at corner in a division with really good passing games.”
3. Baltimore Ravens
Votes: 10-11-3-4-3 | Avg: 6.2 | Median: 4
Look at that canyon between the highest (third) and lowest (11th) votes for the Ravens. There’s a feeling among some that Baltimore has peaked and could be losing ground in a difficult conference, without a means for expanding an offense that opponents increasingly have figured out. Baltimore’s median vote was much better than its average vote.
“They’ll win their division,” one of the voters predicted. “I don’t know where Joe Burrow is (health-wise). Deshaun Watson will miss the first 11 games, and I don’t know where he’s at overall after the layoff. I don’t know where the quarterback in Pittsburgh is. So I’m saying Baltimore may be the best team in that division with an easier schedule. Are the Ravens the third-best team in the conference? They are in better position than some of those AFC West teams even if they are not as good.”
If the Ravens cannot manufacture an elite rushing attack because of their line and/or running back situation, then what?
“They have no skill players at all other than Mark Andrews,” the voter who ranked the Ravens 11th in the AFC said. “Who is Lamar (Jackson) going to throw to? All right, you are going to be a running team. That’s great, except your line is not that good. That said, the 11th-best team in the AFC would probably be the fifth or sixth team in the NFC.”
4. Los Angeles Chargers
Votes: 2-2-6-6-5 | Avg: 4.2 | Median: 5
Two voters had the Chargers second in the conference. Two others had them sixth.
“Don’t know if I trust Denver or the Chargers yet,” one voter said while reflecting on the AFC West. “Both teams have unproven head coaches. I think the head coach matters a lot.”
The potential is there for a Chargers breakthrough, but there are no guarantees Los Angeles will make the necessary strides on defense and special teams.
“They have to go through murderer’s row in their own division,” another voter said. “I give credence to the team that has been there before, Kansas City. The Chargers have not gotten out of their own way yet. They have struggled with durability. They have not yet been ravaged by injuries in this preseason, but to me, I have to see them do it.”
The execs projecting the Chargers second pointed to Justin Herbert and the offense.
“They have very good skill players and they’ve got a pretty good line and they’ve got Herbert,” one of these execs said. “Their offense is going to be good. Whether they fix the defense, that comes down to whether they are healthy. And I did not really include that into the equation. If you factor in typical Charger health, yeah, you could bump them down a bit. But when I think of the biggest threat to the Chiefs, I think of the Chargers first.”
5. Indianapolis Colts
Votes: 4-9-5-12-4 | Avg: 6.8 | Median: 5
The potential for volatility shines through with the Colts as well. The voter ranking Indy only ninth in the AFC worried about the Colts’ once-formidable offensive line, especially at left tackle.
“Everyone says Matt Ryan is going to bounce back like it’s no problem, and I think Matt Ryan has a little deer-in-the-headlight complex at this stage,” this voter said. “Matt Ryan is good when he has a really good receiving tight end, and I don’t think they do. Who is the receiver they have that is going to get open right away?”
One of the voters ranking Indy fourth expressed no such concern, noting also that life in the AFC South should be good for the Colts.
“Matt Ryan is going to do so much better job (enabling) run-after-catch situations for his receivers,” this voter said. “Some of the flaws in Carson Wentz’s game last year, a lot of it was placement. Matt Ryan does not have to be a superstar for them to be a productive team. He throws such a catchable ball, an easy ball, so that a lot of those run-after-catch opportunities that were missing last year will be there. They have big receivers with length. You just have to put it in the radius.”
6. Cincinnati Bengals
Votes: 6-3-4-8-9 | Avg: 6.0 | Median: 6
Five different execs went into last season projecting Cincy as one of the bottom few teams in the AFC. The Bengals proved them wrong, even if the concerns heading into the season were valid. This time, a different set of execs upgraded the Bengals’ chances without pushing them into the AFC’s elite. For the second summer in a row, health concerns swirling around Burrow have clouded the picture. Last year’s ACL rehab has yielded to a much less common appendectomy rehab this time.
“The O-line is better, but I don’t think it’s good,” an exec said. “They put a Band-Aid on it. Burrow has the appendix. When is he taking contact? That is a painful injury with a guy who has a bad offensive line, so I think it’s OK to hedge a little bit.”
7. Denver Broncos
Votes: 7-4-7-7-6 | Avg: 6.2 | Median: 7
Russell Wilson undoubtedly upgrades the Broncos at quarterback, but two of the five voters questioned whether he could deliver on expectations.
“I don’t think there is much spread between the Broncos and Raiders,” one of the voters said, suggesting Wilson might not be as good as he was at his best in Seattle two or three seasons ago.
Subtracting Vic Fangio as the defensive play caller was another concern, as Fangio is recognized as one of the very best teachers of defense in the league.
“I watched a lot of Seattle last year, and I don’t think Russ is a player you ride,” the voter who ranked Denver sixth in the AFC said. “Unless he can find lightning in a bottle and they can ride off that and drink the Russ Kool-Aid and over-perform, he is not going to put the team on his back. I see him as a complementary player, knowing he will give you games and plays where he outperforms that. I do really like Javonte Williams. I just don’t know how much of that will be (featured) more than catering to what Russ wants to do.”
8. Las Vegas Raiders
Votes: 11-7-10-3-7 | Avg: 7.6 | Median: 7
The voter who ranked the Raiders third in the AFC is a general manager who expects new coach Josh McDaniels to maximize talent at the skill positions.
“They’ve got Davante Adams, Darren Waller and they got pass-rush with Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby,” this GM said. “I’m kind of bullish on them.”
Concerns regarding the Raiders’ offensive line and defensive secondary offset some of the optimism for others. There was also some concern the Raiders might not weather adversity as well as they did last season if McDaniels taps into his New England taskmaster roots.
“They can’t afford too many missteps based on how they are built and in the division they have to play,” a voter who ranked the Raiders seventh said. “What does it look like if they go on a three-game skid? On the positive, they have an ability to be one of the best pass offenses in the league, the type of team where you say, ‘We gotta hold them under 30.’ “
9. Tennessee Titans
Votes: 8-13-8-5-11 | Avg: 9.0 | Median: 8
The Titans finished last season as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. One voter ranked them as low as 13th in the conference this season. If Tennessee exceeds expectations, it won’t be the first time.
“Their coaching is so good,” the voter who ranked Tennessee 13th said. “But I don’t think Derrick Henry will be the same coming off that foot (injury), and who do they throw to? I think (Ryan) Tannehill will be Tannehill. I think he had a good little three-year run.”
Tennessee is perennially a team criticized for various offseason missteps, only to persevere anyway.
“I think decisions over the past few years have caught up to them, where they don’t have sufficient depth,” the voter who ranked the Titans 11th said. “Their receiving corps and corner group looks pedestrian. Treylon Burks has to replace A.J. Brown. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has to be a high-volume snap guy, as does Kyle Phillips. Tannehill doesn’t have the outlets he needs in the passing game.”
10. Miami Dolphins
Votes: 14-8-13-10-8 | Avg: 10.6 | Median: 10
One voter called the Dolphins his boom-or-bust team. All agreed Tua Tagovailoa was in a much better position to succeed. They weren’t sure he would.
“Do I bet on Tua? If I was going to gamble, I might push them up,” an exec who placed the Dolphins eighth said. “But the offensive line, dangit, no. Those weapons are impressive with Hill and (Jaylen) Waddle. If they can run the ball like the 49ers do with that committee and the offensive line is in sync, yeah, they are a team that can rise and go to the playoffs. Their defense is very good.”
Another voter thought it was plausible for Tagovailoa to become a better decision maker, and for new coach Mike McDaniel to scheme explosive plays. If the Bears once got a 70 Total QBR season from Mitch Trubisky, could the Dolphins scheme something similar from Tagovailoa?
“Well, Mitch Trubisky was able to run the ball a lot, which helped, and that is not really Tua’s thing,” the exec who placed the Dolphins 14th said. “As you saw in their preseason game against the Eagles, they put Tua out there, his first ball, Tyreek was wide open for a touchdown and he underthrew him.”
Hill was able to adjust on the ball to catch it for a 51-yard gain. The Dolphins will settle for a few more of those, but it’s clear many execs aren’t yet changing negative evals on Tagovailoa, even if they think he’ll be more successful.
11. New England Patriots
Votes: 5-6-11-11-13 | Avg: 9.6 | Median: 11
Execs were all over the landscape on the Patriots as well.
“I probably believe in Mac Jones a lot more than most — I am probably too high on them,” the voter who ranked the Patriots fifth said. “I basically look at them as a team that could sneak into the playoffs, anywhere from 7-10 wins. People are getting all caught up in the offense looking bad this summer. Bill Belichick is a really good coach. I’m less concerned about that.”
Belichick himself tried to downplay the concerns by suggesting preseason is overrated.
“The O-line is average, but if their running game can get off to a hot start and stay hot, they have a chance,” another exec said. “If the running game is lukewarm, there could be issues where you put a lot on the quarterback’s plate.”
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
Votes: 13-10-12-11-10 | Avg: 11.2 | Median: 11
The Steelers famously have never suffered a losing season under coach Mike Tomlin. Is this the year?
“If they win, it just tells you that their system is a darn good system,” one voter said.
Watson’s suspension in Cleveland could provide at least some opening in the AFC North.
“I’m not going to bet against Tomlin,” another exec said. “Some guys have an X-factor. He is one of them. ‘Mike T’ has the ability, even when the roster is lackluster, to find a way to be productive. What does Cleveland look like for the first 11 weeks? The Steelers don’t have to do anything way above their abilities. I think a winning season is more realistic than going to the playoffs.”
13. Cleveland Browns
Votes: 12-14-9-9-12 | Avg: 11.2 | Median: 12
The Browns play without Watson for their first 11 games. That was a dealbreaker for the voters.
“I think it may be too late,” an exec said of Watson’s return date. “They have a young roster, too. I’m not sure Deshaun wills their culture to say, ‘OK, Superman is back.’ If they were in another division, I would feel different. That division is so tough physically that if you fall behind it can snowball on you.”
14. Jacksonville Jaguars
Votes: 9-12-15-15-14 | Avg: 13.0 | Median: 14
All expect the Jaguars to be better, but not as much as I might have anticipated.
“Who is the second-year quarterback who ascends?” one exec asked. “Does Trevor Lawrence make a Joe Burrow-type jump?”
That is not the general expectation.
“Jacksonville could surprise in that division,” another exec said. “I don’t see it translating in the AFC as a whole, but if you told me Jacksonville finished third in that division or even second, I would not say that is unrealistic.”
15. New York Jets
Votes: 15-15-14-14-15 | Avg: 14.6 | Median: 15
What would constitute a successful season for the Jets?
“I think Jets have a successful season if they get good return on investment on their draft picks and free-agent additions,” an exec said. “I love what they have done this offseason, but they don’t have the luxury of easing guys in. They need to get production right now, and that is difficult.”
16. Houston Texans
Votes: 16-16-16-16-16 | Avg: 16.0 | Median: 16
Voters disagreed over so many teams. The Texans were not one of them.
“I think Atlanta and Houston are very clearly the two worst teams in the league, and it’s not even close,” one exec said.
Another thought Houston had made some questionable roster moves for a team with so much room for improvement.
“They sign a bunch of special-teamer depth guys,” this voter said. “They have signed a million depth linebackers that don’t have defensive value. To me, it’s like New England is when they have seven safeties and the last three don’t do anything on defense. They treat special teams as its own entity, but that is a luxury Houston can’t really afford. I just don’t think it’s a talented roster.”
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WORST TO FIRST
Eight teams finished worst in a division in 2021. History says one or more will go all the way to the top. John Breech ranks the candidates – and we can’t say we remembered that the Ravens were dead last in the AFC North. They seem the most likely to do so in 2022 by a mile.
One thing that makes the NFL so entertaining every year is the fact that it’s one of the most unpredictable sports on the planet, and nothing proves that more than the league’s uncanny ability to produce at least one team every season that goes from worst-to-first.
Last year, that team was the Cincinnati Bengals. After finishing with an ugly record of 4-11-1 in 2020, the Bengals bounced back and made the Super Bowl in 2021, which should give some hope to every team that finished at the bottom of their division last season.
Over the past five years, there have been a total of six teams that have followed up a last place finish in one season with a division-winning run the following season, and for those of you who aren’t good at math, that’s an average of more than one team per year. That average has actually held pretty firm over the years: Since the NFL realigned its divisions in 2002, there have been 27 teams that have gone from worst to first, which is an average of 1.35 teams per year over that 20-season span.
Basically, NFL history says that at least one team is going to go from worst-to-first this year, and because we love ranking things here, we’re going to rank the eight last place finishers from 2021 to find out who could be this year’s Bengals.
8. Seattle Seahawks
2021 record: 7-10
Odds to win NFC West: +2500
The Seahawks play in a division where every team got better during the offseason except for them, which isn’t ideal when you were already the worst team in the division. The Seahawks traded away their best offensive player (Russell Wilson), they got rid of their best defensive player (Bobby Wagner) and they play in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL (Not only did the NFC West produce three playoff teams last season, but it also produced both teams in the NFC title game).
Basically, if you’re looking for a long shot last place team to make a division winning bet on this offseason, here’s some advice: Don’t pick Seattle.
Fun fact: The Seahawks are one of only two teams on this list that have never gone worst-to-first and based on where I have them in the rankings, I obviously don’t see that changing this year.
7. New York Jets
2021 record: 4-13
Odds to win AFC East: +2200
The Jets currently have the NFL’s longest drought without a playoff appearance and although that streak will eventually end at some point, it doesn’t feel like it’s going to happen this year. The Jets have several problems going into the regular season. For one, they don’t even know who their starting QB is going to be in Week 1 (Zach Wilson is dealing with an injury). Not to mention, they’ve already lost a starting offensive lineman to injury (Mekhi Bechton) and they have a receiver who doesn’t even want to play for the team anymore (Denzel Mims). Some teams can overcome obstacles like that, but not the Jets.
After finishing in last place in five of the past six seasons, it’s easy to imagine the Jets getting out of the cellar this year, but first place feels like a long shot, which is probably why their odds are set at 22-to-1. If it’s any consolation though, the Jets did win the unofficial preseason division title in the AFC East by going 3-0. Go Jets!
Fun fact: Over the past 10 years, the Jets have finished in last a total of six times, however, they have failed to go worst-to-first even a single time that span, so I wouldn’t bet on it happening this year. Not only have they not gone worst-to-first over the past decade, but they’ve never done it in franchise history.
The DB could see the Jets getting to 2nd – but the Bills (if JOSH ALLEN’s healthy) would seem to cap their aspirations there.
6. New York Giants
2021 record: 4-13
Odds to win NFC East: +800
This almost feels like a throw away year in New York and that’s mostly because the Giants new regime is going to have to spend the season cleaning up the mess of the old regime. If the Giants are going to succeed in 2022, they’re going to need Brian Daboll to work a miracle with Daniel Jones. Over the past 10 years, every team in the NFC has won the division at least once… except for the Giants, and 2022 doesn’t feel like the season where that streak is going to end.
Daboll might get this team to seven or eight wins, but it’s hard to imagine him winning the division title with this roster. If that happens, the Giants should sign him to a lifetime contract on the spot.
Fun fact: The good news for the Giants? They’ve gone worst-to-first twice in franchise history (1997, 2005), so maybe they can make it happen again this year.
5. Detroit Lions
2021 record: 3-13-1
Odds to win NFC North: +900
After watching the Lions for one straight month on “Hard Knocks,” I can’t decide if they’re actually going to be good or if I just got sucked into thinking they might be good due to watching “Hard Knocks.” One thing about the Lions is that they showed last season that they can play competitive football. Over the final six weeks of the season, they went 3-3 and those three wins came over the Packers, Vikings and Cardinals.
The players are clearly buying into Dan Campbell’s philosophy and when your coach’s philosophy is biting kneecaps, that almost automatically gives you a chance for a surprising season. Dan Campbell is also a guy who likes to win at everything he does and if that attitude brushes off on his team, they might end up shocking a few people this year.
Fun fact: The Lions only have one worst-to-first turnaround in franchise history, and fans in Detroit might actually remember when it happened. After finishing in last place in 1992, the Lions won the NFC Central with a 10-6 record in 1993, which is notable, because that also happens to be the last time Detroit won a division title.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
2021 record: 3-14
Odds to win AFC South +650
The Jaguars finished with the worst record in the NFL last year, so it might seem a little crazy to be talking about them as a potential division winner, but it’s something that could absolutely happen if Trevor Lawrence has a big season. Lawrence definitely struggled in 2021, but it feels like 80% of the problem was Urban Meyer and the Jags fixed that part of the problem by firing Meyer last December.
New coach Doug Pederson is the perfect guy to take over. Not only is he a former Super Bowl winner, but he’s also proven that he knows how to work with young quarterbacks (I mean, the man won his Super Bowl with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles starting games for him).
Another reason to like the Jaguars is because they’re in a winnable division. Although the Colts look tough, there’s no guarantee that the Matt Ryan experiment will work out. On the Titans’ end, they traded away A.J. Brown and it won’t be surprising if Tennessee takes a step back. And when you throw in the fact that the Texans are the Texans, it becomes at least plausible to see the Jags winning the division.
Fun fact: Of all the teams on this list, the Jaguars are the ones that have most recently gone worst-to-first. The Jags won the AFC South in 2017, just one year after finishing in last place with a 3-13 record.
3. Carolina Panthers
2021 record: 5-12
Odds to win NFC South: +1100
It might seem crazy to have the Panthers ranked so high on this list, but when you break things down, it actually kind of makes sense. For one, the Panthers have arguably improved more than any other team in the NFC South this offseason. Not only did they upgrade at QB with Baker Mayfield, but they also added three key starters on the offensive line with Bradley Bozeman (center), Austin Corbett (right guard) and Ikem Ekwonu (left tackle). Not to mention, they’ll also be getting back a healthy Christian McCaffrey, who might actually be able to put up some big numbers this year since Carolina’s line won’t be horrible.
Oh, and let’s not forget the fact that 50% of the division got worse this offseason. The regular season starts next week and the Buccaneers have suffered so many injuries on the offensive line that they still have no idea who’s going to start. They also lost Rob Gronkowski to retirement, Chris Godwin is coming off an ACL injury, Mike Evans has been battling injuries in training camp and their QB decided to skip half of August to take a vacation. On the Falcons’ end, they seem hopeless without Matt Ryan. As for the Saints, the Panthers went 1-1 against them last season and there’s no reason to think they can’t at least do that again.
Basically, the Panthers have everything you’re looking for in a potential dark horse. Also, Baker Mayfield seems like he’s going to be on some sort of revenge tour and I don’t like betting against people on revenge tours.
Fun fact: The Panthers have only existed since 1995, but they’ve already pulled off TWO worst-to-first runs in franchise history. After finishing in last place during their expansion season in 1995, the Panthers roared back with a first place finish during a 1996 season where they made it all the way to the NFC title game. The Panthers also made the Super Bowl in 2003, one year after a 2002 season where they finished in last place.
2. Denver Broncos
2021 record: 7-10
Odds to win AFC West: +275
One big reason the Broncos were so bad last year was because their offense couldn’t score. In games where they surrendered 17 or more points, the Broncos went 0-9, which basically means that every opponent knew that if they could turn the game into a shootout, they were going to win. The Broncos also went 1-5 in one-score games because their offense simply wasn’t clutch enough to pull out late-game victories.
How do you solve both of those problems? By trading for Russell Wilson. The addition of Wilson makes the Broncos an immediate contender in the AFC West and although it’s the toughest division in football, there’s no reason to think they can’t win it this year. Wilson has a long track record of success — he made the playoffs in eight of 10 seasons as Seattle’s starting QB — and he’s shown no signs of slowing down.
If you’re still doubting Denver, I have four words for you: Broncos country, let’s ride.
Fun fact: Believe it or not, the Broncos have gone worst-to-first more often than any other team on this list. Their division titles in 1991, 1996 and 2011 all came after seasons where they finished in last place.
1. Baltimore Ravens
2021 record: 8-9
Odds to win AFC North: +140
In what might be an NFL first: The Ravens are actually FAVORED to win the AFC North one year after their last place finish. That reason alone made it easy to put the Ravens at the top of this list.
The thing about Baltimore is that their 8-9 record in 2021 was arguably impressive when you consider how many players they lost to injury. I could try and list them all here, but I don’t think there’s enough bandwidth on the entire internet to go through every name. Not only did they lose Lamar Jackson for five games, but they also lost key starters like cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, along with running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards.
Now that everyone’s healthy, the oddsmakers like Baltimore’s chances of making the playoffs and I have to say, I agree with them
Fortunately for the Ravens, the only big injury they’ve suffered so far this year is to their mascot, who had to be carted off the field during Baltimore’s preseason finale.
Fun fact: The Ravens have gone worst-to-first exactly once in franchise history. The lone occasion came in 2006 when they won the AFC North one year after a disastrous 2005 season where they went 6-10.
Super Bowl fun fact: Of the 27 teams that have gone worst-to-first since 2002, only four have made them have made the Super Bowl, so although it’s possible, it’s definitely not likely. |
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WIN PROJECTIONS 1 TO 32
The Athletic is full of goodies today. Austin Mock has a computer and a formula and he played a bunch of NFL seasons to get 32 win projections. Then the Athletic correspondent for each team weighs in. We will put in our two cents, if we feel it is warranted, in red.
First, Austin Mock ran his NFL betting model using various metrics to create projections for each team. He uses these projections for each game of the season to get a projected spread and then converts it into a projected winning percentage. By deploying a simulator that he built, he used these projections simulate each game in the NFL season and see how many games every team will win. The simulator repeated this process 100,000 times to find an expected win total for each team.
Next, our NFL writers considered and then reacted to the number for each team. Here are the numbers and reactions:
Buffalo Bills – Win total: 11.6
The Bills are in one of the most lopsided divisions in the NFL this year, getting six games against the AFC East. They’ll take on the AFC North, which has two teams in a transitional year and an NFC North division with two teams that could pick in the top 10 come April. With all of the Bills’ talent, despite some challenging opponents early, the Bills should be able to get to the 12-win plateau by season’s end. — Joe Buscaglia
Green Bay Packers – Win total: 11.4
The Packers have won 13 games in each of the past three regular seasons, but there will be a regression at some point, right? Right?! Maybe a small one, but nothing significant. The wide receiver corps is diminished but the Packers should still field a stalwart offensive line, running game and defense. They also have the back-to-back MVP at quarterback and a favorable 2022 schedule. I’ll go 12 wins for the Packers, so take the over. — Matt Schneidman
If you thought the Packers were going to win 12 games – and the line was 11.5, if that enough of a perceived spread to “take the over”? Besides what the Packers can control, the key would seem to be have the other three teams in the division improved (the Vikings and Bears are under new management, the Lions had a productive draft).
Dallas Cowboys – Win total: 10.6
The Cowboys have averaged nine wins per season the past five years, but they haven’t had consecutive seasons with double-digit wins since 1996. Combine that with Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith’s recent hamstring injury and taking the under seems like the best bet here. Barring a notable trade to improve the roster, nine or 10 wins seems more likely than 11 or even 12, their total from last year. — Jon Machota
Kansas City Chiefs – Win total: 10.6
The Chiefs have won 12 games every season with quarterback Patrick Mahomes as the starter. Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid have earned the benefit of the doubt, even with this understandable projection. The rest of the AFC West has improved, and the Chiefs’ streak of divisional crowns will end at some point. But the Chiefs are capable of another 12-5 season if Mahomes is excellent, the offense remains efficient even without Tyreek Hill, and the defense creates timely turnovers. — Nate Taylor
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Win total: 10.5
It won’t be hard for the Bucs to get to 11 wins as long as Tom Brady stays healthy. The start of their schedule is daunting, but they still get the Falcons and Panthers twice, not to mention the Seahawks and plenty of other winnable games. They’re likely to have fewer injuries than they had last year, when they went 13-4, so for them to drop by three wins would represent a significant drop-off. Losing center Ryan Jensen to a knee injury creates concern on the offensive line, but not enough to keep them from 11 wins. — Greg Auman
This isn’t the first Buccaneers projection we’ve seen that seems a tad low. We agree with much of what Auman wrote above.
Los Angeles Rams – Win total: 10.1
This seems pretty conservative, considering the state of largely the rest of the NFC as compared to last season (the Rams won 12 regular-season games). Their schedule is brutal, but the roster is also arguably better than it was in 2021. If Matthew Stafford’s elbow doesn’t become an issue down the stretch, I might hit the over here. — Jourdan Rodrigue
The DB would think that the Rams will win more games than the Cowboys.
Indianapolis Colts – Win total: 10
This feels like a fair number, considering the AFC West teams the Colts will face this fall. The benefit they have — in theory at least — is three or four wins against the AFC South bottom-dwellers in Houston and Jacksonville. My sense is we’ll get a good feel for whether the Colts might be able to creep into the double digits (11 wins? Even 12?) four weeks in, after they’ve opened with Houston and Jacksonville then face two tough tests against Kansas City and Tennessee. — Zak Keefer
Baltimore Ravens – Win total: 9.9
That seems about right, just because there’s so much uncertainty about who the Ravens will even have available early in the season. So many of their key players who sustained major season-ending injuries last year are either just getting back to the field or won’t be back for weeks or months. They could be vulnerable early. However, they are well-coached and still have a motivated Lamar Jackson and a relatively deep and talented roster. — Jeff Zrebiec
Los Angeles Chargers – Win total: 9.8
I think the Chargers will finish above this number. I had them at 11 wins in my schedule breakdown, and I am sticking with that. The offense is going to be elite. And with the defensive pieces added this offseason, I think they will be dramatically improved in that phase — certainly better than their 26th finish in DVOA in 2021. The AFC West is going to be a bloodbath, but I have the Chargers emerging as victors when all is said and done. — Daniel Popper
San Francisco 49ers – Win total: 9.7
This is a fair number, but because a team must win a whole number of games, we’ll go with the over for the 49ers. Some offensive inconsistency amidst growing pains for quarterback Trey Lance and a new-look offensive line seems inevitable, but the 49ers have a ton of skill-position talent and possibly their most complete defensive arsenal of the Kyle Shanahan era. Ten wins is the baseline for the 49ers if Lance is at least competent. — David Lombardi
Minnesota Vikings – Win total: 9.7
This matches many of the casino odds put forth by Vegas and is not too far from my estimate of 10 wins. It is difficult to model new coaching changes, but there should be some marginal improvement in the Vikings offense and some mixed results in the efficiency of the defense — one that always had better advanced stats than the point totals would have suggested. Though I do expect to see a better team, uncertainty regarding a new coaching staff should be factored in. I’d say this number is basically spot on. — Arif Hasan
Cincinnati Bengals – Win total: 9.5
It’s a reasonable number on the surface, but when you consider the majority of the team’s best players are still approaching their prime and the front office addressed the biggest weakness by signing three starting offensive linemen in free agency, it’s hard to justify picking this team to win fewer games than last year. Yes, the Bengals are playing a first-place schedule and the AFC as a whole got a lot better, but the offense is on the cusp of being elite and the defense returns 10 starters. Bet against Joe Burrow at your own peril. — Jay Morrison
What Jay Morrison wrote.
Denver Broncos – Win total: 9.4
I predicted the Broncos to win 11 games following the release of the team’s schedule. Russell Wilson at quarterback means a high floor. In 10 seasons with the Seahawks, Wilson won fewer than 10 games only twice — and one of those was a nine-win season in 2017. The Broncos may be even better defensively than they were under Vic Fangio in 2021, owing to key additions on that side of the ball in Randy Gregory and D.J. Jones. I can see a 10-7 finish for the Broncos, but outside of an injury to Wilson, I have a hard time seeing them falling under the 9.4 number represented here. — Nick Kosmider
New Orleans Saints – Win total: 9.4
That’s a fair number. Oddsmakers originally placed the over-under at 8.5 wins, and I looked at that total as too low. I figure the Saints can be a 10-win team and make the playoffs as a wild-card team. New Orleans’ defense should be the strength, so it will come down to offensive pieces like quarterback Jameis Winston and wide receiver Michael Thomas producing. — Larry Holder
Philadelphia Eagles – Win total: 9
At this point, nine wins would be something of a disappointment for an Eagles team with higher expectations. With A.J. Brown dropped on top of an offense that was 11th in offensive DVOA last season and a defense that has improved personnel-wise at all three levels, this is a team with eyes on making a deep run in the playoffs. Double-digit wins and an NFC East championship are what they think should be in store with a weak schedule in a bad division after making it through the summer healthy. — Bo Wulf
We are not buying that the Cowboys, who if anything lost personnel from 2021, are going to win more games than the Eagles who seem to have had a fine offseason.
Miami Dolphins – Win total: 8.9
The Dolphins have had a winning record and missed the playoffs each of the past two seasons. How painful would a third such season be? It’s easy to get Miami to a 9-8 record — just consider one midseason stretch when they get, in order, the Vikings, Steelers, Lions, Bears, Browns (without Deshaun Watson) and Texans. They could go 5-1 just in that stretch, and they still get the Jets twice. We’ll take the over but might not have if it were a half-win higher. — Greg Auman
Arizona Cardinals – Win total: 8.7
With DeAndre Hopkins for a full season, the over here is a no-brainer. Alas, he’ll miss the first six contests for violating the league’s PED policy. Even so, this still looks like a playoff team. Motivated Kyler Murray has weapons, including close friend “Hollywood” Brown. No doubt, the defense needs to come around, and the schedule is tough, but the embarrassment from last season’s playoff exit still lingers. The Cardinals have something to prove. Expect a strong second half and 10 wins. — Doug Haller
New England Patriots – Win total: 8.6
Even if I haven’t been super impressed by the Pats’ newly run offense throughout training camp, I’m taking the over on this one. It’s hard to bet against Bill Belichick putting together a winning season — he’s had one losing season since 2000, and I’m not figuring on another this year. I think the Patriots defense will surprise people in a good way, and I think Mac Jones will take a jump in Year 2 even if the offensive line and receivers haven’t been great in the preseason. — Chad Graff
We have a sneaking suspicion this number is high – just as the Raiders number (below) is low. It’s not so much that they lost Josh Daniels, but how they replaced him.
Tennessee Titans – Win total: 8.6
This is a pretty easy call on the over, which of course will require Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill to be healthy backfield partners all season. If they are, despite a void left by A.J. Brown and questions at right tackle and left guard, this is a 10-win team. Tight end is upgraded with Austin Hooper, and variety is better at receiver (though Brown’s game-breaking ability will be missed). The thing many are missing on the Titans is the potential for their defense to be outstanding, especially with the corner group improving. — Joe Rexrode
Has any number one seed, carrying over the same coach and QB, ever received less respect? With a schedule that has four games with the Jaguars and Texans? Plus the Giants? So if they are 4-1 there, you’re saying they go 4-8 or 5-7 the rest of the way to get 8 or 9 wins?
Las Vegas Raiders – Win total: 8.3
It’s not impossible that the Raiders finish with a losing record, obviously, but I’m pretty confident they’ll be a winning team. They’re playing in the best division in the NFL, so the skepticism is warranted, but I view them more along the lines of a 10-win team that will be vying for a wild-card playoff spot. Despite having a questionable offensive line, they should have a top-10 offense following the addition of Davante Adams, and the defense should be good enough to get them over the postseason hump. — Tashan Reed
Cleveland Browns – Win total: 8.2
This is a fair number, and it’s just off the 8.5 most sportsbooks posted for the Browns in the wake of Deshaun Watson’s suspension. In leaning toward the under, I’m guessing the Browns will post an 8-9 record for the second consecutive season. The defense and run game will be strong, but the state of the pass game without Watson and the possibility of multiple transition periods at the game’s quarterback position tell me the Browns will end up under .500 on a rugged schedule. There will be chances for the Browns to stack a few wins and build some momentum early, but unless the defense becomes a turnover-causing machine, I don’t see enough offensive pop to overcome the adversity and uncertainty. — Zac Jackson
Washington Commanders – Win total: 8.2
Washington won seven games last season despite losing its Week 1 starting QB in the first half of the opening game and the defense cratering. The addition of Carson Wentz raises the offense’s ceiling this season, and the coaching staff believes continuity will boost the defense despite edge rusher Chase Young missing at least four games. Is that enough to top 8.2 wins? Um, maybe? This number sounds fair, though RB Brian Robinson suffering two non-life-threatening gunshot wounds adds yet another variable. — Ben Standig
Carolina Panthers – Win total: 7.5
With a motivated Baker Mayfield operating behind an improved offensive line, the Panthers should be better than they were in head coach Matt Rhule’s first two seasons, finishing each with only five wins. The key will be the health of Christian McCaffrey, who remains a matchup problem for safeties and linebackers and is the only Panthers’ weapon to truly worry opposing defenses. If McCaffrey plays 15 games, the Panthers should be slightly over the 7.5. If he’s out for a significant stretch again, it’ll be the under. — Joseph Person
Pittsburgh Steelers – Win total: 7.1
You may have not known this, but head coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record (sarcasm), so 7.1 wins would end that streak. It can be much worse with a tough division and schedule to deal with as they break in a new quarterback behind an awful offensive line. However, the defense is legit, and if they can win eight games with Duck Hodges as the quarterback in 2019, they can win that many with Mitch Trubisky/Kenny Pickett. So I’d go a tad over 7.1 — Mark Kaboly
What Kaboly wrote.
Detroit Lions – Win total: 6.9
The Lions’ schedule is favorable, the offense should be better, and there’s a little more to work with defensively than last year. However, the depth isn’t where it needs to be to overcome significant injuries and there are plenty of questions that need to be answered with this secondary. A 7-10 season is certainly within reach if a few things go right, but 6-11 is probably the safer bet. I’d go under — but not by much. — Colton Pouncy
New York Giants – Win total: 6.6
This seems like the right total to set for the Giants, as I’ve seen overly optimistic sportsbooks place the number at 7 or 7.5. The schedule is undeniably favorable, and there’s reason to believe the coaching staff — at least offensively — will be a major upgrade. But the Giants have won six or fewer games in each of the past five seasons. I’m skeptical that streak gets snapped in the first year of a rebuild with a very thin roster. — Dan Duggan
Jacksonville Jaguars – Win total: 6.2
Jacksonville will take a step forward in head coach Doug Pederson’s first season, especially on offense, but I don’t know that the Jaguars win more than six games. That’s doubling last year’s total, and they have only seven games that are truly at home, and they have to play the AFC West. That lines up to five or six wins, and we’ll take the under here. If they don’t win the opener at Washington, they could open 0-4 really easily. — Greg Auman
Seattle Seahawks – Win total: 6
Six wins feels spot-on, honestly. Head coach Pete Carroll’s brand of football — which is essentially playing not to lose — will keep his team competitive in most games unless there’s a clear gap in talent between the Seahawks and their opponent, which is perhaps going to be relevant against the Bucs and teams atop the NFC West and AFC West. But the Seahawks will still have problems finishing games, regardless. However, they should beat the other bottom dwellers on their schedule. — Michael-Shawn Dugar
Chicago Bears – Win total: 5.9
This is probably fair considering the litany of questions facing the 2022 Bears. Though it’s worth noting that the teams ranked 32nd, 31st, 28th, 26th and 25th are all on their schedule, those teams might all be looking at the Bears as a “win.” If quarterback Justin Fields takes off and head coach Matt Eberflus’ defense becomes a takeaway machine, they’ll go over. But the personnel alone makes this number seem right. — Kevin Fishbain
Justin Fields might be really good and make this low, but we’re not sure of that.
Atlanta Falcons – Win total: 5.8
This feels about right for Atlanta, which looks to be better in several areas, but notably not quarterback. The Falcons traded franchise quarterback Matt Ryan following their failed pursuit of Deshaun Watson. He is being replaced by Marcus Mariota, and maybe at some point this season Desmond Ridder. Both have looked OK-to-good in the preseason, but Ryan is a 15-year veteran and former MVP, so it’s hard not to project some regression. — Josh Kendall
Houston Texans – Win total: 4.8
Winning just four games three seasons in a row is tough to do, but the Texans might complete such a streak in Lovie Smith’s first season as head coach — if not fare a little worse. Houston has swapped out some mediocre veterans for new ones, but the team’s most exciting additions are rookies, who often aren’t impactful. Though the Texans are better positioned for the long term than they were a year ago, a slight step back in 2022 seems plausible. — Aaron Reiss
New York Jets – Win total: 4.7
It’s surprising to me that the Jets have the lowest win projection in the NFL — though if you don’t believe in quarterback Zach Wilson (or Joe Flacco) it’s hard to argue with that. Still, even in the worst-case scenario, it would be surprising if the Jets only won four games. Everybody would get fired and this organization would be starting from scratch all over again. This roster is significantly more talented around Wilson (offensive line, weapons, defense) that they should win at least five games and probably more. — Zack Rosenblatt
We don’t think the Jets will be the worst team in football. As with the Eagles, Lions and some other teams, a lot of projections seem to be underestimating the infusion of talent from a strong draft. In fact, we don’t think they will have a top 5 first round pick next year. |
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