Darren Rovell has lived a very cautious life in the last six months and been something of a Negative Nelly.  But this:

@darrenrovell

The NFL made the bet that Covid-19 would be somewhat stabilized by the time the season started.

They won that bet.

The NFL has also made a bet that the substantial majority of its fans will not stop viewing, even with player protests fully supported and enhanced by the league.  We shall see.

We do note that the idea that NFL players will be boycotting Week 1 games in a show of solidarity with their NBA and MLB fellows seems to have died down.

– – –

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com has an exercise where he constructs a “”path to the Super Bowl” for all 32 teams.  He starts with Jacksonville:

32. Jacksonville Jaguars

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: Less than 0.1%

Chance to make the playoffs: 4.3%

Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +25000

Gardner Minshew, Super Bowl champion? This list has to start somewhere, and while the Jaguars certainly seem like they’re rebuilding after trading away defensive end Yannick Ngakoue and safety Ronnie Harrison last week, it’s not impossible to construct a path in which they make it to the postseason. Just look at the AFC South. The Texans are expected to decline. The Titans have little under center behind oft-injured quarterback Ryan Tannehill. The Colts have a 38-year-old quarterback in Philip Rivers who looked like he might be toast last season. If Rivers’ time is up and Tannehill gets hurt, this division is suddenly wide open.

There’s enough of a core here for the Jaguars to at least be competitive if things break right. The offensive line is solid, especially if Cam Robinson gets back on track. Jacksonville’s wide receivers aren’t impressive on paper, but they’re young, and there’s always a chance DJ Chark morphs into a superstar or rookie second-round pick Laviska Shenault is good from Day 1. The front seven has talent with Josh Allen, Myles Jack and Joe Schobert, and the defense adds a pair of first-rounders to the fold in edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson and cornerback CJ Henderson.

It’s tough to imagine the Jaguars being great, but if they can get to average and their division stinks, that might be enough. In 2011, the Giants made it to the postseason with a 9-7 record despite being outscored by six points. Once they got into the playoffs, though, they stopped turning the ball over, got hot and ran the table, even though they were underdogs in three of the four contests.

Not sure we’re buying it.  You can see his thoughts for every team here.  We will put a few of the more interesting ones in the team slot below.

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

Bill Barnwell and the Lions path to the Super Bowl:

26. Detroit Lions

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 0.1%

Chance to make the playoffs: 16.9%

Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +6000

With Detroit a trendy pick to win the NFC North, I’m already on record as suggesting the Lions will improve in 2020. Back in January, I laid out the similarities between the Lions and last year’s 49ers, a team that I projected as likely to improve before the season.

To make a deep playoff run, the Lions need to turn around a defense that has ranked 21st and 23rd in its first two seasons under coach Matt Patricia, and even that was with now-traded cornerback Darius Slay. Detroit could have as many as six new starters on defense, and while I’m skeptical that Patricia’s plan of stocking up on Patriots players Bill Belichick didn’t want to keep is a great idea, those guys could still be an upgrade on what the Lions rolled out a year ago.

If the defense can just improve to adequate, some better luck in the fourth quarter and the return of Matthew Stafford could push the Lions into the nine- to 10-win range, which could be enough to win the NFC North.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com says the defense is the key to the Cowboys’ Super Bowl hopes:

5. Dallas Cowboys

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 4.8%

Chance to make the playoffs: 71.0%

Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +1300

The Cowboys are probably looking to ride a path like that of the 2016 Falcons to glory. Advanced metrics already thought their offense was on that sort of level, with Dak Prescott & Co. ranking second in DVOA and fourth in FPI last season. Dallas needs center Joe Looney to step in as an able replacement for the retired Travis Frederick and for new coach Mike McCarthy to let incumbent offensive coordinator Kellen Moore do his thing. McCarthy is saying the right things now, but a lot can change once things kick off.

The defense probably just has to get to league average for the Cowboys to make a significant playoff push, although losing defensive tackle Gerald McCoy to a season-ending injury didn’t help their chances. They cut veteran safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, and they don’t appear to be interested in Earl Thomas, although that might be subject to change. Dallas posted the league’s third-worst interception rate last year at 1.2%; if that number rises above league average, the combination of a dominant offense and a bunch of short fields could net it the top seed in the NFC.

PHILADELPHIA

T JASON PETERS gets his raise.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

Jason Peters re-signed in Philadelphia to play guard. After the season-ending injury to Andre Dillard, the 17-year pro will slide back to left tackle.

Peters will also get a pay bump to compensate for that upgrade in position.

NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported Thursday that the Eagles reworked Peters’ contract, which is now worth up to $8 million, according to agent Vince Taylor.

The deal includes a $2 million signing bonus and $4 million guaranteed.

When the Eagles re-signed Peters back in July after Brandon Brooks went down with injury, the plan was for the 38-year-old to play guard for the first time in his career. At the time, he signed a one-year deal worth up to $6 million, with $3 million guaranteed.

WASHINGTON

Bill Barnwell on the WFT and the Super Bowl:

30. Washington Football Team

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: Less than 0.1%

Chance to make the playoffs: 6.0%

Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +15000

Great teams typically dominate the line of scrimmage, and while I have concerns about the offensive line, Washington could have one of the league’s best defensive lines. Washington has five first-rounders along its front seven, including four defensive linemen in Montez Sweat, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and rookie No. 2 overall pick Chase Young. (Its best lineman might be All-Underrated Team member Matt Ioannidis.) Jack Del Rio’s track record as a defensive coordinator is very good; it would hardly be a surprise if this were one of the league’s biggest risers on defense.

Projecting an effective offense is tougher, although Washington does have young contributors with the potential to make transformative leaps in quarterback Dwayne Haskins, wide receiver Terry McLaurin and running back Antonio Gibson. The Cowboys and Eagles, expected to compete for the NFC East title, are already dealing with serious injury issues. It might not seem like Washington is remotely close to a playoff berth after a 3-13 season in 2019, but its most recent two division titles have come after seasons in which it went 4-12 and 5-11. The 49ers added the second overall pick to a deep defensive line last season and rode Nick Bosa & Co. all the way to the Super Bowl; could Washington follow in their footsteps?

NFC SOUTH

TAMPA BAY

Will WR MIKE EVANS be on the field for QB TOM BRADY’s Buccaneers coming out party?  Jenna Laine of ESPN.com:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pro Bowl wide receiver Mike Evans has a hamstring injury that could jeopardize his availability to play against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.

Coach Bruce Arians described Evans’ status as day-to-day. Evans missed the final three games of the 2019 season with a hamstring injury.

“We’ll take it all the way to the wire with him,” Arians said of Evans. “He’s got 1,000 reps already for this game, the whole camp. So it’ll just be a game-time decision. If he doesn’t go Friday, we’ll take it all the way to the ballgame. If he can’t play, other guys will step in and step up.”

If Evans can’t play, Justin Watson and Scotty Miller will likely split the workload.

Evans, the Buccaneers’ top wideout, missed practice Tuesday and Wednesday. It does not appear as if he missed any time during training camp with the injury.

In 2019, Evans became just the second wide receiver in NFL history, joining Randy Moss, to record 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first six seasons. Since 2014, Evans has single-handedly accounted for nearly 30% of the Buccaneers’ receiving yards (7,260) and receiving touchdowns (48).

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

An NFL game might not be played as scheduled this weekend, but not due to Covid-19.

Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com:

The ominous skies hovering over Levi’s Stadium haven’t yet forced the San Francisco 49ers to change their plans, but it’s something they and the NFL will have to keep tabs on as they head toward Sunday’s opener against the Arizona Cardinals.

With more wildfires burning all over California combined with a recent heat wave, Bay Area residents woke up to eerie orange skies and falling ash on Wednesday. It created a strange atmosphere for the Niners and coach Kyle Shanahan as they conducted a walk-through and a practice outside the SAP training facility.

“We just got back in from walk-through and it’s orange out here, too,” Shanahan said. “I feel like I’m in ‘The Book of Eli’ — it’s like an apocalyptic state out there.”

Despite the dark pall over their practice fields, the air quality, at least for now, has not surged into dangerous territory. According to Shanahan, the team’s measurement on the air quality index was a healthy 69 during the team’s walk-through Wednesday. That number remained in the 60s during practice.

That’s notable because the NFL will not allow teams to play or practice outside should that number surge to 200 or above on Sunday. To this point, the wildfires that have been burning for the past three weeks have not caused the Niners to cancel practice because of air quality.

On Aug. 21, the team did alter its practice schedule by about an hour because of concerns that winds would shift and the air quality would reach the threshold to force the Niners to cancel or move practice. The team also excused two players from practice early as a safeguard against the effects of the climbing air quality index number.

At that time, the air quality hovered between 150 and 155, and it has reached as high as the 160s at various points over the past few weeks.

“Surprisingly, the air quality doesn’t seem as bad as it looks,” Shanahan said. “A few weeks ago when we had it or last week, it got up, it got past 150 here for us. But today when we were just out there 15 minutes ago, that air quality was at 69, I think, which isn’t close to what it’s been. It definitely looked different out there.”

While many of the fires from that time are close to full containment, new fires have sparked in recent days. According to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, wildfires have burned over 2.5 million acres in the state this year, with eight deaths and more than 3,700 structures destroyed as of Wednesday morning.

Although none of the fires are in the immediate proximity of Levi’s Stadium, high winds have blown smoke and ash over all parts of the Bay Area, including the 49ers’ facility. Strange as it was, the Niners were able to practice Wednesday without problems.

“It’s dark out there,” quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo said. “It’s not clouds. I mean, just with the smoke and everything, we just did a walk-through a little while ago and there’s the ash falling all over the place. It’s different, but [I] send best wishes to all the families out there that are dealing with it. It’s tough times, and stay safe.”

On the field, the 49ers were without wide receivers Deebo Samuel (foot) and Brandon Aiyuk (hamstring) and cornerback Jason Verrett (hamstring) for Wednesday’s practice. Center Ben Garland, who has been dealing with an ankle injury, practiced on a limited basis.

We’re presuming the first option would be to flip the site of the game and play it in Arizona, with the Week 16 rematch played in Santa Clara.

Speaking of Covid-19, or not speaking of it:

Four days before the regular-season opener against the Arizona Cardinals, the San Francisco 49ers welcomed linebacker Fred Warner back after a stint on the reserve/COVID-19 list.

The Niners announced Wednesday morning that they activated Warner from the list after placing him on it on Aug. 31. The team had expected Warner back this week, leaving the 53rd spot on the roster open for him when the 49ers made their cuts to the initial team on Saturday.

Still, coach Kyle Shanahan was relieved to get Warner back from the COVID-19 list and into practice, where he participated without restriction.

“Fred is back, he’s good to go,” Shanahan said. “I can’t talk about it too much of his week away but Fred has been as reliable of a player as we’ve had. It’s great to get him back today. We were obviously pretty nervous about that. But he’s good to go and we’re very grateful he’s gonna be here.”

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

After building a case for 31 other teams, the Chiefs get this at the top of the heap from Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com:

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: 21.1%

Chance to make the playoffs: 94.0%

Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +400

Forget Patrick Mahomes for a second. If you were going to craft the profile of a team likely to make a Super Bowl run in a season affected by COVID-19, you’d build the Chiefs. You would want a team with a legendary coach and continuity along its coaching staff. The Chiefs return Andy Reid and their entire coaching staff. You would want to also return a veteran roster, and the only players who played more than half of the offensive or defensive snaps who aren’t back for Kansas City in 2020 are guards Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and Cam Erving. The Chiefs are in a relatively easy division and face the league’s 13th-easiest schedule.

Of course, you get all of that and the league’s best quarterback. The Chiefs can actually improve on their offense from 2019, both by getting a full season out of Mahomes and by improving in the red zone. They might even have upgraded at a position of (relative) weakness by replacing the likes of Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy with first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire, giving them a receiving back they haven’t had since cutting Kareem Hunt.

The simplest way I can put it is this: Everyone else has to exceed expectations to win the Super Bowl. All the Chiefs have to do is live up to expectations and be the Chiefs.

AFC NORTH

CINCINNATI

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com on the Bengals path to the Super Bowl:

31. Cincinnati Bengals

Chance to win Super Bowl LV: Less than 0.1%

Chance to make the playoffs: 7.4%

Caesars’ Super Bowl odds: +10000

The easiest way to grossly outplay projections is to get better quarterback play than the market expects. The Bengals have a quarterback with a massive ceiling in Joe Burrow, who just ran off arguably the best season in college football history at LSU. Burrow’s final college season translates to an NFL passer rating of 143.7, and while that’s not in the cards, what if he is a top-10 quarterback as a rookie? Cincinnati was below replacement level at positions such as left tackle and linebacker a year ago; merely improving those positions to adequate would be significant upgrades.

I’m optimistic about the Bengals’ chances of improving in 2020, but it’s going to be tough for them to emerge out of the AFC North. Even if the Ravens take a step backward after a 14-2 season, they should still be in the thick of the playoff hunt. The Browns expect to improve after replacing coach Freddie Kitchens, and the Steelers could rank among the best teams in football if Ben Roethlisberger is back to his old self after elbow surgery. We’ve seen moribund franchises rescued and immediately pushed back into the playoffs by the right quarterback pick — think the Colts with Andrew Luck in 2012 — but the Bengals probably would need the division to go their way to have a plausible path to the Super Bowl.

CLEVELAND

It’s put up or shut up time for QB BAKER MAYFIELD.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

Baker Mayfield didn’t see improvement in his second season in Cleveland. In fact, on some levels, the quarterback regressed from a promising rookie season.

Entering a pivotal Year 3, Mayfield knows he must make big strides in 2020.

“Out to prove [I’m] much better than what I’ve shown in the two years prior,” Mayfield said Wednesday, via the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

Last year, Mayfield threw 22 TDs and 21 INTs while completing just 59.4 percent of 534 pass attempts for 3,827 yards. The Browns QB never got in sync with Odell Beckham Jr. and made far too many head-scratching decisions. There were more ‘what the heck was he thinking’ plays from Mayfield last year than explosive connections.

After setting the rookie TD record in 2018 with 27, Mayfield ranked 31st among 32 qualified QBs in completion percentage, 31st in INTs, 31st in passer rating (78.8) and dead last in TD-INT ratio in 2019. Mayfield has thrown 35 interceptions since 2018 (second-most in NFL) — only Jameis Winston (44) has thrown more in that span.

In 2019, perhaps the offseason hype got to Mayfield. In 2020, the quarterback isn’t seeking to build a booklet of excuses in case things go awry, not even the fact that he’s moving to his third offense in three seasons.

“It could be an excuse if you use it, but that’s not what I’m doing here,” he said. “Singular focus on this year and what we can do, and that’s the ultimate goal so move forward.”

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

WR BRANDIN COOKS is now a Texan, and he may not play tonight.  But Darin Gantt of ProFootballTalk.com has an optimistic report:

The Texans listed wide receiver Brandin Cooks as questionable for tonight’s opener against the Chiefs with a quad injury, which by definition makes it a 50-50 proposition that he plays.

That number might be creeping in a certain direction.

According to Tom Pelissero of NFL Network, Cooks has “improved in the past 24 hours,” creating optimism that he’ll be able to play tonight.

Cooks may work out before the game to be sure of his status, but if he’s well enough to play, that would be a huge boost.

The Texans brought him in this offseason after they shipped DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals, so the expectations are high. If he can’t play, the Texans will rely on Kenny Stills, Will Fuller, and Randall Cobb to try to keep pace with the Chiefs.

JACKSONVILLE

The Jaguars have, in effect, traded RB LEONARD FOURNETTE for RB DARE OGUNBOWALE.   Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com:

The Jaguars signed running back Dare Ogunbowale on Thursday as they try to overcome several injuries ahead of Sunday’s opener.

Devine Ozigbo was placed on injured reserve Thursday because of a left hamstring injury, and Ryquell Armstead is on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Coach Doug Marrone said that Armstead could be out for a while. Ozigbo is eligible to return by Week 4.

Ogunbowale has played in 20 career games and has 11 rushes for 17 yards and two touchdowns and 35 receptions for 286 yards. He originally signed with Houston as an undrafted free agent in 2017 and has also spent time with Washington (2017) and Tampa Bay (2017, 2018-20).

The Bucs cut him last week and later signed Leonard Fournette — who was surprisingly waived by the Jaguars on Aug. 31.

Jacksonville is going with undrafted rookie James Robinson as the starter.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

Something to note from Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

On one hand, he fully participated in practice. On the other hand, he’s on the injury report.

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was listed on the first Dolphins injury report of the year as fully participating in practice despite a hip injury.

Presumably, it’s the same hip injury that he suffered last season at Alabama. (It would be quite the coincidence if it were a different hip injury.) Though he’s not expected to play on Sunday against the Patriots on Sunday, it’s telling that the supposedly healthy Tagovailoa is still dealing with the aftereffects of the 2019 injury.

– – –

The Dolphins are re-enforced in 2020 by three ex-Patriots including LB KYLE VAN NOY.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Kyle Van Noy left the Patriots for the Dolphins as a free agent this offseason, but he won’t have to worry about hearing any boos in his return to Gillette Stadium.

There won’t be any fans on hand for Sunday’s game between Miami and New England, which may make it easier to hear what players are saying to one another on the field. Van Noy thinks that will be “a cool experience” for people watching the game on TV because he thinks there will be plenty of jawing between him and former teammates.

“Yeah, going against them, they’re familiar with me. I’m familiar with them. I’m excited for this task,” Van Noy said, via MassLive.com. “They’ve been talking trash the four years I’ve been there, so I’m excited to see if we both can back it up.”

Linebacker Elandon Roberts and center Ted Karras also jumped from New England to Miami, so there should be plenty of pleasantries exchanged as the AFC East teams try to get an early leg up on the divisional race.

THIS AND THAT

PREDICTIONS

NFL.com headlines these nine predictions as “juicy.”  Kansas City repeating would not be juicy.  Let’s find out.

Here we go, Schein Nine style:

1) CeeDee Lamb will have more receiving yards than Amari Cooper

Dallas acquired Cooper from the Raiders via trade midway through the 2018 campaign. In the 27 games since (including the postseason), he’s piled up 145 catches for 2,085 yards and 15 touchdowns, leading the Cowboys in receiving yards in each of the past two seasons. Not too shabby. But suddenly, there’s a new alpha wideout in town.

I love CeeDee Lamb. I’ll never forget the Oklahoma product’s appearance on my SiriusXM Radio show, “Schein On Sports,” just hours before the 2020 NFL Draft. In a great conversation, Lamb stressed how much he lives for the big moment and thrives when all eyes are on him. Then, that night, he became a Dallas Cowboy. Perfect!

Lamb is a special talent. I think he has better hands than Cooper. He’s more dynamic than Michael Gallup, who just posted a 1,000-yard season of his own. In the coming months, Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy are going to fall head over heels in love with Lamb, who definitely has the chops (pun intended) to wear the Cowboys’ fabled No. 88 jersey. Dallas will field the NFL’s top offense and represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, thanks in no small part to this gifted rookie.

2) Joe Burrow will break Baker Mayfield’s rookie record of 27 touchdown passes

Back in 1998, Peyton Manning threw 26 touchdown passes, setting a rookie record that was eventually equaled by Russell Wilson in 2012. Two seasons ago, Mayfield topped them both with 27 TD tosses. Now it’s time for another Heisman Trophy-winning No. 1 overall pick to raise the bar once again.

It’s going to be so much fun watching Burrow, who was selected as one of Cincinnati’s team captains on Wednesday. He’s can’t-miss, especially with a deep receiving corps that includes A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, rookie second-rounder Tee Higgins, John Ross and Auden Tate. And with freshly PAID running back Joe Mixon providing Cincy with offensive balance, I think Burrow is going to thrive right off the bat.

People forget Zac Taylor was hired by the Bengals as an offensive wunderkind. Last season was a mess, but hardly the first-year coach’s fault. Now, he has a quarterback. And 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams provides much-needed O-line help after missing all of last year due to injury.

Burrow has the skills and swagger, with a whole bunch of talented playmakers at his disposal. Thirty touchdown passes seems reasonable.

3) The Jaguars will become the third 0-16 team in NFL history

Yes, the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns are about to have some company.

It’s not hard to see what’s going on here: The Jaguars are breaking it down to build it back up. Over the past 11 months, Jacksonville has parted ways with Jalen Ramsey, Calais Campbell, Marcell Dareus, A.J. Bouye, Nick Foles, Yannick Ngakoue and, most recently, Leonard Fournette. This leaves a team short on quality experience and long on untested starters. On cutdown day, according to the PhillyVoice, the average age of players on the Jags’ 53-man roster was 24.9. That’s the lowest number since … those winless Browns of 2017. This organization is turning over the roster. And given all of the front-office strife in recent years — Tom Coughlin’s return to Jacksonville didn’t exactly go as planned, eh? — I hope Doug Marrone gets to stay around to see it through. He is a heckuva coach. But with the group he has in 2020, it’s impossible to be bullish on the Jaguars. Like, ever. Tell me where you’re finding a win in this schedule:

Week 1: vs. Indianapolis Colts

Week 2: at Tennessee Titans

Week 3: vs. Miami Dolphins

Week 4: at Cincinnati Bengals

Week 5: at Houston Texans

Week 6: vs. Detroit Lions

Week 7: Bye

Week 8: at Los Angeles Chargers

Week 9: vs. Houston Texans

Week 10: at Green Bay Packers

Week 11: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 12: vs. Cleveland Browns

Week 13: at Minnesota Vikings

Week 14: vs. Tennessee Titans

Week 15: at Baltimore Ravens

Week 16: vs. Chicago Bears

Week 17: at Indianapolis Colts

Home against Miami in Week 3? The Dolphins are one year ahead in the rebuilding process — and they have much more talent on defense, especially in the secondary. The following week in Cincinnati? Go back up to No. 2 on this Schein Nine — I believe in the Burrow Bengals.

It’s gonna be a long season in Duval.

4) Kyler Murray will be a legitimate MVP candidate

After taking home Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2019, Murray is going to put up monster numbers in his sophomore campaign. I’m not completely calling my shot here by predicting that Murray will follow in Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson’s shoes to become the third straight second-year signal-caller to take home MVP honors, but the electric Cardinal is going to make his way into the conversation.

Not only does Murray have Kliff Kingsbury’s offense down cold now, but he also has one of the best receivers in the game. DeAndre Hopkins is an absolute stud. I still cannot believe how Arizona stole him from Houston. Nuk, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk comprise a dreamy Big Three at receiver for Murray.

Oh, and the Cardinals have been my sleeper team all offseason. They are making the playoffs, and Murray is going to be the major reason why.

5) Derek Carr will be a legitimate MVP candidate

Talking to Carr earlier this week on SiriusXM Radio was great. The three-time Pro Bowler can’t wait to just go out and play football — and you better believe he’s driven to prove all of his critics wrong.

Honestly, Carr didn’t get enough credit for his 2019 performance. After Antonio Brown did his best to torpedo the Raiders’ offense, Carr went out and completed over 70 percent of his passes for a career-high 4,054 yards, recording a 100.8 passer rating in the process. He’s very comfortable in Jon Gruden’s offense — and now has a significantly improved collection of weapons to work with. First-round burner Henry Ruggs III gives this attack some much-needed sizzle, while big-bodied third-rounder Bryan Edwards generated buzz throughout training camp for his advanced route-running ability.

Carr and second-year back Josh Jacobs will guide the Raiders to the playoffs this season.

6) The Patriots will post their first losing record since 2000

New England has logged double-digit wins in 17 consecutive regular seasons — and 18 of the past 19. The lone exception was a 9-7 campaign in 2002. The last time the Patriots finished with a losing record? You have to go all the way back to Bill Belichick’s first year on the job, when New England went 5-11 in 2000.

Welp, it’s time for the Patriots to see what it’s like to live life below .500 once again. If everything breaks right, New England goes 7-9. And it could be worse.

Cam Newton isn’t Tom Brady. (RED-hot take, I know.) And the Patriots still have a pedestrian O-line, lack of experience at tight end and a shaky group of running backs and receivers. And then there’s the defense, which was leveled by offseason attrition via free agency (Jamie Collins, Kyle Van Noy, Danny Shelton and Duron Harmon) and COVID-19 opt-outs (Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung).

The rest of the AFC — and the rest of the AFC East — look better on paper this season. Buffalo will win the division. Miami will finish second. The only reason why the Patriots could reach seven wins is because Belichick is the best coach in sports history.

7) The Rams will finish last in the NFC West

Look, I don’t hate the Rams. I still love Sean McVay. I believe in Jared Goff. And at this point, the Defensive Player of the Year award should be named after Aaron Donald.

I just like the Niners, Cardinals and Seahawks more. This division’s an absolute buzzsaw. I could see the Rams going 8-8 or 9-7 and finishing last. Heck, I wouldn’t rule out all four NFC West teams making the expanded playoff field.

But on my official scorecard, I have San Francisco, Arizona and Seattle hitting the postseason, with L.A. missing out. There are just too many questions and changes with this roster.

8) Jonathan Taylor will be the best rookie running back

The competition will be fierce. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is rightly everyone’s darling and a perfect fit in the high-powered Chiefs attack. D’Andre Swift is a stud and will dazzle for Detroit. J.K. Dobbins was put on Earth to run the rock for the Ravens. And Bills bruiser Zack Moss has been receiving sleeper Offensive Rookie of the Year buzz.

But Taylor is special, having recorded obscene rushing totals in his three years as a Wisconsin Badger: 1,977, 2,194 and 2,003 yards. Then he went out to the NFL Scouting Combine and ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at 226 pounds. Combining Taylor’s blend of power, speed and smarts with the best offensive line in the game today? Watch out! That’s why this guy’s my pick for Offensive ROY.

9) The Browns and Buccaneers will end the NFL’s two longest postseason droughts

Cleveland and Tampa Bay are the only teams that haven’t made the playoffs in double-digit years. The Browns have been postseason-free for a whopping 17 seasons, while the Bucs’ drought sits at 12 years. But both dry spells are about to end!

Finally, Cleveland has a professional coach to maximize Baker Mayfield and the gobs of surrounding talent. Finally, Cleveland has a competent and ego-free GM who significantly improved the Browns along the offensive line and at tight end. I have this team nabbing the AFC’s top wild-card slot.

Meanwhile, in Tampa … Tom Brady is Tom Brady. He’s the G.O.A.T. and still great. I cannot wait to see what he does with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and all those tight ends. That said, it’s the underrated front seven on defense that makes these Bucs complete. I have them winning the NFC South and being major contenders to make this season’s Super Bowl in … Tampa Bay.

We like most of these as plausible but juicy.  Carr as an MVP candidate seems a stretch, but otherwise we like the way he thinks.  Especially since CeeDee Lamb is on our Fantasy team.

– – –

Speaking of the Super Bowl, NFL.com has 33 “experts” on staff, and 16 (including Schein) think the Chiefs repeat:

Which team will win Super Bowl LV?

1 – Kansas City Chiefs  (16 votes)

Judy Battista: Chiefs over Saints. No surprise that two teams with great continuity make a run this season. It’s also no surprise that the Chiefs become the first back-to-back champion since the Patriots in 2004 — and the similarities may not end here.

Jeremy Bergman: Chiefs over Cowboys. The Cowboys return to Super Bowl Sunday in their first year of the Mike McCarthy era and for the first time in a quarter-century. But once there, America’s Team runs into American football’s next dynasty, and falls to its Dallas predecessors, led by Patrick Mahomes and Super Bowl MVP Clyde Edwards-Helaire, by three scores.

Gil Brandt: Chiefs over Vikings. The offensive-minded Andy Reid faces off against the defensive-minded Mike Zimmer. The Vikings win time of possession, but bet the under with the Chiefs taking a low-scoring game.

Nate Burleson: Chiefs over Buccaneers. The Bucs become the first team in history to host the Super Bowl, but that’s where the history-making stops for Tom Brady this time around. It’s Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes who head back home with new hardware.

Gennaro Filice: Chiefs over Cowboys. The ‘Boys hit Super Bowl Sunday for the first time since Windows 95 was on the cutting edge, but Dallas doesn’t have an answer for the modern world’s most prolific operating system, the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes Chiefs.

Marcas Grant: Chiefs over Saints. It’s a quarterback duel made in fantasy football heaven. Mahomes leads Kansas City to the rare double, sending Drew Brees sadly off into the sunset.

DeAngelo Hall: Chiefs over Buccaneers. Tom Brady gives Patrick Mahomes a run for his money late in the game, but it’s ultimately the young gunslinger who outshines the veteran with a game-winning touchdown drive. Mahomes gets his second ring. Four more to go to match the G.O.A.T.

Maurice Jones-Drew: Chiefs over Buccaneers. The Chiefs ride their Patrick Mahomes-led offense to back-to-back titles, but it’s the rookie, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who scores the game-winning touchdown.

Steve Mariucci: Chiefs over Saints. Patrick Mahomes out-passes Drew Brees and SMASHES all of Kurt Warner’s Super Bowl records! (Sorry, Kurt.)

Kevin Patra: Chiefs over Saints. The two deepest teams with little turnover during a COVID-influenced season find their way to the Super Bowl. The Saints finally get over the NFC hump only to find more heartbreak as Patrick Mahomes leads a late fourth-quarter drive to swipe Drew Brees’ second Lombardi.

Scott Pioli: Chiefs over Saints. The Saints will be in a season-long battle to win the division, but their team continuity will carry them in 2020. They will be strong in January, but unable to beat the best team in football in February.

Adam Rank: Chiefs over Buccaneers. I don’t have the Chiefs taking the AFC West, which should be a surprise. Not because the Chiefs will stumble, but the talent of the AFC West is so good. Still, they end up going on a roll in the playoffs and capture back-to-back titles. And now Andy Reid is getting close to entering the conversation for best coach in NFL history.

Adam Schein: Chiefs over Cowboys. It’s Patty Mahomes’ world and we are just living in it. It’s the Chiefs’ time to Schein once again this year. Mahomes and Reid will not be denied.

Peter Schrager: Chiefs Over Buccaneers. In Super Bowl LV, it’s Patrick Mahomes (the best of his generation) over Tom Brady (the best of his generation). In Tampa Bay, no less.

Nick Shook: Chiefs over Saints. New Orleans finally realizes its potential for the first time since XLIV, but can’t outgun Patrick Mahomes in his second straight heroic performance on the game’s biggest stage.

Kurt Warner: Chiefs over 49ers. I still think these are the two most complete rosters in football. This time, though, it’s a higher-scoring affair, with Patrick Mahomes leading the Chiefs on a late touchdown drive for the win in a close game.

2 – Baltimore Ravens Six votes

Brian Baldinger: Ravens over Saints. The Ravens win Super Bowl LV in the same stadium where they won their first title versus the New York Giants many moons ago. I think Baltimore got better this offseason with key acquisitions of Calais Campbell, Derek Wolfe and Patrick Queen. The Ravens have the best kicking game in the NFL and a style of offense that is difficult to defend with the reigning MVP at the QB position. Lamar Jackson continues to improve his passing, especially his deep-ball throws to guys like Hollywood Brown, who is fully healthy. Baltimore has it all.

Ali Bhanpuri: Ravens over Seahawks. After sprinting past Mahomes’ merciless Chiefs in the AFC title game, Lamar fulfills the modern-day three-year plan the Kansas City QB perfected:

Jeffri Chadiha: Ravens over Saints. The Saints finally break through after three straight years of playoff frustration. However, they run into a loaded Ravens team hell-bent on making up for a missed opportunity at a championship in 2019.

Chase Goodbread: Ravens over Saints. Lamar Jackson further cements his place among the NFL’s most dynamic quarterbacks with a masterful performance, and rookie LB Patrick Queen provides a big boost to the Baltimore defense in his first year. Ravens win it, 27-20.

Marc Ross: Ravens over Saints. After two years of playoff frustrations, Lamar Jackson leads the Ravens to victory and is named Super Bowl MVP. A last-second Justin Tucker field goal sends the devastated Saints home on the final play for the fourth year in a row.

Marc Sessler: Ravens over Cowboys. After edging the Chiefs in a double-overtime AFC Championship Game thriller, the Ravens topple Dallas in a romp that triggers a distant sculptor to get busy on John Harbaugh’s HOF bust.

3 New Orleans Saints    Four votes

Brooke Cersosimo: Saints over Ravens. The Saints finally get back to the Super Bowl and capitalize on the opportunity while they still have Drew Brees under center. And unlike Peyton Manning in his final game, Brees leads his offense with four TDs, including the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter. Brees is named Super Bowl MVP and rides off into the sunset with a Lombardi — while Tom Brady hears the cheers from down the street.

Cynthia Frelund: Saints over Chiefs. This season, I believe experience and continuity, at every level (player and coach), will be the keys to postseason berths. The Saints and Chiefs fit the bill in 2020, with Sean besting Andy in this matchup. This should be epic.

Shaun O’Hara: Saints over Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes and K.C. jump out to a big lead early on, but Drew Brees gets one last shot with 52 seconds left in game. Michael Thomas catches the game-winning TD and Brees retires on top. #WhoDat

Dan Parr: Saints over Chiefs. New Orleans keeps Kansas City from becoming the first back-to-back champ in nearly 20 years and sends Drew Brees out with his second Lombardi.

T-4 Pittsburgh Steelers  Two votes

Dan Hanzus: Steelers over Saints. Led by a resurgent Big Ben and a dominant defense, the Steelers bring the Lombardi Trophy home and send Drew Brees into retirement with an L.

Jim Trotter: Steelers over Cowboys. Pittsburgh was forced to mature quickly last season without Ben Roethlisberger — and did. That growth will be magnified with him back in the lineup.

T-4 San Francisco 49ers    Two votes

Joe Thomas: 49ers over Ravens. Kyle Shannahan gets over the Super Bowl hump with help from the Niners’ defense. Robert Saleh’s unit plays flawless football in not allowing the Ravens to score a single touchdown.

Lance Zierlein: 49ers over Ravens. The swarming 49ers defense continues its dominant ways against Lamar Jackson, while Kyle Shanahan exorcises his Super Bowl demons.

T-6   Dallas Cowboys   One vote

Tom Blair: Cowboys over Bills. Nineties nostalgia, baby! Buffalo’s wild postseason ride results in the franchise’s first trip to the Big Game in 27 years. And it ends as anyone born before 1988 will tell you it must: with a third consecutive Super Bowl loss to Dallas.

T-6  Green Bay Packers    One vote

James Jones: Packers over Chiefs. A decade after Aaron Rodgers won his first ring, he strings together a near-perfect Super Bowl performance to out-duel Patrick Mahomes. The Lombardi Trophy returns home to Titletown.

T-6   Indianapolis Colts    One vote

Gregg Rosenthal: Colts over Saints. Eleven seasons after one of the most underrated Super Bowls of all time, the Colts get revenge when Rock Ya-Sin makes like Tracy Porter with a late pick-six against Drew Brees.

T-6   Las Vegas Raiders       One vote

David Carr: Raiders over Cowboys. Down six on the final drive, Derek Carr (channeling Kobe Bryant) marches the Raiders down the field to the 8-yard line with 24 seconds left on the clock. Little bro throws a laser for a touchdown to Darren Waller on a post route. Everything that’s been built up over the years is behind that throw and the Power of God launches this ball straight into Waller’s grip. The Cowboys get one final chance, but it ends when Maxx Crosby hits Dak Prescott as he throws the ball, and Damon Arnette seals the game with a pick-six. RAAAAIDDDDERRRRRSSSSS!

T-6  Tampa Bay Buccaneers      One vote

Rhett Lewis: Buccaneers over Ravens. Tom Brady becomes the second quarterback in NFL history — joining Peyton Manning — to win a Super Bowl with two different franchises.

If you are counting by conference:

AFC -Chiefs 20 to reach SB, Ravens 8, Steelers 2, Bills 1, Colts 1, Raiders 1.

NFC – Saints 16, Cowboys 7, Buccaneers 6, Vikings 1, Packers 1, 49ers 1, Seahawks 1

Just one for last year’s NFC kingpin, the 49ers?

Among the teams that literally no one believes in are the Rams, Eagles AND PATRIOTS!

– – –

Even more – from ProFootballTalk.com where Mike Florio does go for a Kraft-Glazer Bowl:

We’ve waited as long as we could, although we’d like to wait even longer.

This year, unlike any other, will be a crapshoot of prognostication. Who’s good? Who isn’t? Who knows?

The PFT writers have made their picks for the playoffs teams and the playoff tree. Regardless of who wins the Super Bowl, the mere fact that there will be a Super Bowl will be a win for everyone.

The picks appear below. As you’ll see, half of the staff believes the Chiefs will repeat.

Josh Alper

AFC 1. Chiefs; 2. Ravens; 3. Titans; 4. Patriots; 5. Steelers; 6. Bills; 7. Colts.

Wild card: Ravens over Colts, Titans over Bills; Steelers over Patriots.

Divisional round: Chiefs over Steelers, Ravens over Titans.

Conference championship: Chiefs over Ravens.

NFC

1. Seahawks; 2. Cowboys; 3. Saints; 4. Packers; 5. Buccaneers; 6. 49ers; 7. Cardinals.

Wild card: Cowboys over Cardinals; 49ers over Saints; Buccaneers over Packers.

Divisional round: Seahawks over 49ers; Buccaneers over Cowboys.

Conference championship: Seahawks over Buccaneers.

Super Bowl: Chiefs over Seahawks.

Curtis Crabtree

AFC  1. Chiefs; 2. Ravens; 3. Bills; 4. Titans; 5. Steelers; 6. Raiders; 7. Browns.

Wild card: Ravens over Browns. Bills over Raiders. Steelers over Titans.

Divisional round: Chiefs over Steelers. Ravens over Bills.

Conference championship: Chiefs over Ravens.

NFC  1. Saints; 2. Cowboys; 3. Seahawks; 4. Lions; 5. Buccaneers; 6. 49ers; 7. Cardinals.

Wild card: Cowboys over Cardinals. Seahawks over 49ers. Buccaneers over Lions.

Divisional round: Buccaneers over Saints. Cowboys over Seahawks.

Conference championship: Cowboys over Buccaneers.

Super Bowl: Chiefs over Cowboys.

Mike Florio

AFC   1. Chiefs; 2. Patriots; 3. Ravens; 4. Titans; 5. Steelers; 6. Chargers; 7. Colts.

Wild card: Patriots over Colts. Ravens over Chargers. Steelers over Titans.

Divisional round: Chiefs over Steelers. Patriots over Ravens.

Conference championship: Patriots over Chiefs.

NFC   1. Cowboys; 2. Buccaneers; 3. Seahawks; 4. Vikings; 5. Saints; 6. Falcons; 7. 49ers.

Wild card: Buccaneers over 49ers. Seahawks over Falcons. Vikings over Saints.

Divisional round: Vikings over Cowboys. Buccaneers over Seahawks.

Conference championship: Buccaneers over Vikings.

Super Bowl: Buccaneers over Patriots.

Darin Gantt

AFC   1. Chiefs; 2. Ravens; 3. Colts; 4. Patriots; 5. Bills; 6. Titans; 7. Texans.

Wild card: Ravens over Texans; Colts over Titans; Patriots over Bills.

Divisional round: Chiefs over Patriots; Colts over Ravens.

Conference championship: Chiefs over Colts.

NFC

1. Saints; 2. Seahawks; 3. Cowboys; 4. Packers; 5. 49ers; 6. Buccaneers; 7. Vikings.

Wild card: Seahawks over Vikings; Buccaneers over Cowboys; Packers over 49ers.

Divisional round: Buccaneers over Saints; Packers over Seahawks.

Conference championship: Packers over Buccaneers.

Super Bowl: Chiefs over Packers.

Michael David Smith

AFC  1. Chiefs; 2. Ravens; 3. Patriots; 4. Colts; 5. Steelers; 6. Titans; 7. Browns.

Wild card: Ravens over Browns, Patriots over Titans, Steelers over Colts.

Divisional round: Chiefs over Steelers, Ravens over Patriots.

Conference championship: Ravens over Chiefs.

NFC

1. Saints; 2. Seahawks; 3. Cowboys; 4. Vikings; 5. Buccaneers; 6. Eagles; 7. 49ers.

Wild card: Seahawks over 49ers, Cowboys over Eagles, Buccaneers over Vikings.

Divisional round: Saints over Buccaneers, Seahawks over Cowboys.

Conference championship: Saints over Seahawks.

Super Bowl: Saints over Ravens.

Charean Williams

AFC  1. Ravens; 2. Chiefs; 3. Bills; 4. Titans; 5. Steelers; 6. Texans; 7. Colts.

Wild card: Chiefs over Colts, Bills over Texans, Steelers over Titans.

Divisional round: Ravens over Steelers, Chiefs over Bills.

Conference championship: Ravens over Chiefs.

NFC   1. Saints; 2. Seahawks; 3. Cowboys; 4. Vikings; 5. Buccaneers; 6. 49ers; 7. Lions.

Wild card: Seahawks over Lions, 49ers over Cowboys, Buccaneers over Vikings.

Divisional round: Saints over 49ers, Buccaneers over Seahawks.

Conference championship: Buccaneers over Saints.

Super Bowl: Ravens over Buccaneers.

EVEN MORE PREDICTIONS

From The Athletic:

We polled our staff on that and much more, from each division winner to the first coach fired to whether the Super Bowl would be played in front of fans. Their variety of predictions, including a few very bold ones, are below. Remember, playoff expansion means that there will be three wild-card teams in each conference this year.

Who will win the AFC East?

Buffalo Bills  26     New England Patriots  19    Miami Dolphins   1

Who will win the AFC North?

Baltimore Ravens  41    Pittsburgh Steelers   5

Who will win the AFC South?

Indianapolis Colts  33    Houston Texans   9    Tennessee Titans   4

Who will win the AFC West?

Kansas City Chiefs  46

Who will win the NFC East?

Dallas Cowboys  41   Philadelphia Eagles  5

Who will win the NFC North?

Minnesota Vikings   23   Green Bay Packers  20    Detroit Lions  3

Who will win the NFC South?

New Orleans Saints  36   Tampa Bay Buccaneers   9   Atlanta Falcons   1

Who will win the NFC West?

Seattle Seahawks  22    San Francisco 49ers  20   Los Angeles Rams  2   Arizona Cardinals  2

Who will the AFC wild cards be?

Pittsburgh Steelers   34      Tennessee Titans   20   Buffalo Bills  16   Houston Texans  13

New England Patriots  12  Las Vegas Raiders  11  Cleveland Browns  10  Indianapolis Colts  6

Los Angeles Chargers 6   Baltimore Ravens  5  Denver Broncos  3   Cincinnati Bengals  1

Miami Dolphins  1

DB – So no votes for the Jaguars to make the playoffs.  And the Jets.

Who will the NFC wild cards be?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  27    Seattle Seahawks  19   San Francisco 49ers  18   Philadelphia  Eagles  14   Green Bay Packers  11  New Orleans Saints  11  Minnesota Vikings  11

Los Angeles Rams 9  Arizona Cardinals  7  Chicago Bears  5  Detroit Lions  4  Dallas Cowboys

1  Atlanta Falcons  1

DB – So no votes for Washington or the Giants.

Who will be the AFC Champions?

Kansas City Chiefs  32  Baltimore Ravens  12  Pittsburgh Steelers  2

Again, that’s 85 “experts) between NFL.com, The Athletic and PFT – and only Mike Florio thinks the Patriots can make the Super Bowl.

Who will be the NFC Champions?

New Orleans Saints  18   Seattle Seahawks   10   Dallas Cowboys  7  San Francisco 49ers  5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  4  Detroit Lions  1  Minnesota Vikings  1

Who will win the Super Bowl?

Kansas City Chiefs  23   Baltimore Ravens   9   New Orleans Saints  6   San Francisco 49ers  3

Seattle Seahawks  3   Dallas Cowboys  1   Pittsburgh Steelers  1

Another way to interpret this: Kansas City Chiefs: 23, any of the six other talented NFL teams in this table: 23.

Which team will be a pleasant surprise?

Cleveland Browns  6    Las Vegas Raiders  6  Cincinnati Bengals  6   Arizona Cardinals  6

Detroit Lions  4   Indianapolis Colts  3   Miami Dolphins  3    New England Patriots  3   Buffalo Bills  2   Tampa Bay Buccaneers  2   Chicago Bears  1  Denver Broncos  1  Los Angeles Chargers  1  Pittsburgh Steelers  1   Carolina Panthers  1!

Who’ll be the biggest disappointment?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  10  Green Bay Packers  7   Philadelphia Eagles  5  Houston Texans

4  Chicago Bears  3  Cleveland Browns  2  Dallas Cowboys  2  Los Angeles Rams  2

New England Patriots  2  San Francisco 49ers  2  Tennessee Titans  2  Atlanta Fal  ons  1

Indianapolis Colts  1  Las Vegas Raiders  1  Minnesota Vikings  1  New York Jets

1

Who will win NFL MVP?

Patrick Mahomes  34   Dak Prescott  6  Russell Wilson 3  Lamar Jackson  2  Drew Brees  1

Will the Super Bowl have fans at it?

Yes, at reduced capacity                                    36

No, they will play in front of an empty stadium     7

Yes, at full capacity                                              2

There will not be a Super Bowl                            1

DB THOUGHTS

In Adam Schein style –

TEAMS WE LIKE MORE THAN MOST

Miami, Atlanta, Detroit, Arizona

TEAMS WE DON’T LIKE AS MUCH AS MANY

Buffalo, Green Bay, Rams, Philadelphia

So that means Cardinals win more than Rams.

So that means Dolphins win more than Bills.

OLD QBs WHO CAN STILL PLAY

Tom Brady, Drew Brees

OLD QB WHO HAS HIT THE WALL

Philip Rivers

IF KANSAS CITY DOESN’T WIN THE SUPER BOWL, WE LIKE

San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Baltimore

IF JACKSONVILLE DOESN’T HAVE FIRST PICK, WE LIKE

Jets, Chargers, Panthers, WFT