The Daily Briefing Thursday, September 15, 2022

AROUND THE NFL

@JaimeEisner

1st NFL HC fired odds (@betonline_ag)

Mike McCarthy (+350)

Matt Rhule (+375)

Kliff Kingsbury (+500)

Frank Reich (+900)

Mike Vrabel (+900)

Robert Saleh (10/1)

Arthur Smith (14/1)

Dan Campbell (14/1)

Ron Rivera (16/1)

Pete Carroll (16/1)

Kevin Stefanski (25/1)

Kyle Shanahan (28/1)

Check that.  Mike Vrabel tied for fourth?  And not that we’d fire Lovie Smith – but where is Lovie?

GREEN BAY

WR ALLEN LAZARD practiced on Wednesday.  Ari Meirov of MySportsUpdate.com:

@MySportsUpdate

#Packers HC Matt LaFleur told reporters that WR Allen Lazard (ankle) will return to practice today.

Lazard missed all of practice last week and did not play Sunday. Packers play this week on Sunday Night vs. the Bears.

MINNESOTA

Alec Lewis in The Athletic on what sets WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON apart.

The perfect description of Justin Jefferson’s route running is tucked inside one specific video on the internet.

The video, released by the NFL Network in August, begins with several Jefferson receptions then transitions to comments from opposing defenders.

About 50 seconds in, the camera focuses on Saints safety Tyrann Mathieu, who sits in silence, shakes his head in awe and unleashes a line that would pass for poetry in the NFL.

“I mean, he’s just so slippery, man,” Mathieu says of Jefferson. “Like, his route running, I would describe it as silk.”

Mathieu, in the video, pinches his thumb and index finger together as if he’s gripping a handkerchief, raises his fingers above his head and waves them gently back and forth.

“If you just hold silk in the wind and watch it just blow,” Mathieu said, smiling, “he’s like that. Every time I see him run a route, the defender is so far away from him. Like he’s an illusion.”

After Jefferson’s nine-catch, 184-yard shredding of their defense Sunday, the Packers secondary would have to agree. Jefferson is special. In how he drifts through coverage. In how he cuts in the middle of routes. And in how, once the ball is caught, he slices through space to eat up further yardage.

The 23-year-old Jefferson is able to do things with his body that most other receivers simply cannot. These abilities also reside in many of the best wide receivers in NFL history — a group of pass catchers that, as numbers like his 94.1 yards per game (the most of any receiver in NFL history who has played 34 games) bear out, Jefferson is tracking toward joining.

The roots of these abilities lie partially in genetics. Jefferson is the son of John, a former college basketball player, and brothers of Jordan and Rickey, who also played football at LSU.

Yet there’s another important factor, a commonality Jefferson has with some of the NFL’s most technically savvy receivers: He has worked for years with Jerry Sullivan.

Say Sullivan’s name to Larry Fitzgerald, Isaac Bruce, Anquan Boldin, Herman Moore and others, and they’ll nod their heads convincingly about the now-78-year-old who coached wide receivers in the NFL for three decades. One high-level Division I head coach called Sullivan “the GOAT” of wide receiver coaching. Another called him “Sensei.”

“Everywhere he’s gone, he’s made guys better,” Fitzgerald said of Sullivan years ago. “Every single place he’s at, whatever he has ingredients-wise, he’s like a great chef. He doesn’t know what ingredients he has, but the gourmet meal is coming out. … He’s the best chef in the business.”

Sullivan, to stick with Fitzgerald’s metaphor, has been cooking with Jefferson for years. The resulting flavors are of the quality that defensive coordinators will not be able to ignore.

The first day Justin Jefferson showed up to practice at LSU in 2017, he wore No. 32.

Most of the Tigers coaches knew him as the brother of Jordan and Rickey, a two-star recruit from St. Rose, La., who had just qualified. Sullivan, whom then-head coach Ed Orgeron had added as a consultant, did not know Jefferson at all. But he marveled at the way the receiver moved.

Once practice ended, Sullivan stopped Jefferson and offered him a quick message. Jefferson had no clue who Sullivan was, nor whom Sullivan had coached. He nodded at Sullivan’s words and later that night told his father about the conversation.

“How’d practice go?” John asked Justin.

“All right,” Justin said.

They chatted for a few minutes.

“Anything else?” John asked.

“Yeah,” Justin said. “After practice, this old guy with gray hair came up to me and said, ‘You know, if you work at it, you’ve got a chance to be a really good player.’”

The old guy with gray hair was legitimately impressed. He alerted one of Orgeron’s assistants. He also told wide receivers coach Mickey Joseph.

“He said, ‘Mickey, he’s going to be a dude,’” Joseph remembered. “You’re talking about a veteran NFL wide receiver coach who had seen them all. When he said that, I knew right then and there I better get this kid on the field as quick as I can.”

– – –

“He’s the best technical coach I’ve ever been around,” said Fleck, now the head coach at the University of Minnesota. “There’s no stone ever unturned. He’s constantly looking to make the wasted movement in a wide receiver extinct. That’s what I loved about him. I learned how to evaluate wide receivers and coach wide receivers based on how he coached me. … He’s one of my biggest mentors.

“Every movement that wastes time creates a lack of space,” Fleck continued. “And that can be in a separation skill after the ball, before the ball, releases, vertical parts of your route, breakpoints, all connected. So, he teaches that way — where it basically cuts your body in half. There’s an upper-body teaching and a lower-body teaching. You’ve got to get them to work together.”

Larry Fitzgerald, as the legend goes, heard about Sullivan through Boldin. In 2011, when the NFL owners locked the players out, Fitzgerald cold-called Sullivan, who at the time was taking a break from coaching, and asked if he would fly to Arizona, live with him and train him.

“I said, ‘When do you want me to come?’” Sullivan remembers. “He said, ‘Can you come tomorrow?’ My wife was at the store. I wrote her a note. Packed my shit. And he had a reservation for me on the plane.”

Sullivan said he spent half of March that year with Fitzgerald. All of April. All of May. Half of June. And in July, Fitzgerald invited him to his home in the Twin Cities to continue working together.

By that point, Fitzgerald was a five-time Pro Bowler and a first-team All-Pro with 613 career receptions, 8,204 receiving yards and 65 touchdowns. That fall, he made 80 catches for 1,411 yards and eight touchdowns for the Cardinals. His average of 17.6 yards per catch that season was by far the highest of his 17-year career.

“The way he teaches is different,” Fitzgerald said. “Nobody I’ve been around has taught it the way he has. The footwork at the top of the break. It’s different than other people. Other people will tell you, ‘Run fast and stop.’ They don’t get into the nitty-gritty. The angle of your foot when it hits the ground on a curl route. It shouldn’t be straight. You have to turn your toe in 90 degrees to get out of that break. Those key nuances are the differences between a guy breaking the ball up on a curl route, and you making that catch. Those intricate details are what separates you. And Jerry was big on those details.

“I’ll tell you what,” Fitzgerald continued, “Jerry is hard on you. He’s going to hold you to (a high) standard. If you’re not mentally prepared to be coached hard, it’s not for the faint of heart. But if you can take what he’s teaching you and apply it, he’s going to make you a s— ton of money.”

– – –

The next spring, Orgeron hired Sullivan full time as LSU’s passing game coordinator, charged primarily with aiding the development of Jefferson and freshmen Ja’Marr Chase and Terrace Marshall.

Jefferson started in the season opener against highly ranked Miami and caught five of quarterback Joe Burrow’s 11 completions on the day. The Tigers won 33-17. Jefferson worked as an outside receiver most of the season, racking up 54 catches for 875 yards (16.2 yards per reception) and six touchdowns.

Sullivan continued to laud Jefferson’s route-running skills, including his ability to “nod.”

“A slight change of direction without losing speed,” Sullivan said. “Not everybody can do it. You’ve got to have flexibility to do it.”

Jefferson’s attention to detail further validated Sullivan’s initial impression. He evaluated Jefferson daily and noticed how he carried himself in meeting rooms with his fellow receivers. Jefferson’s ceiling continued to rise. Sullivan told him, “The better you get, the better you have to be.” Jefferson absorbed that thought.

“He’s a mentally tough kid,” Sullivan said. “The kind of guy you can’t beat down. He won’t do it. And I loved that about him. I loved his spirit.”

After the 2018 season, Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury hired Sullivan and brought him back to the NFL. From a distance, Sullivan saw LSU move Jefferson to the slot, where he caught 111 passes for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2019.

Still, some NFL evaluators questioned Jefferson’s potential to be a No. 1 receiver. Bob McGinn’s reporting from 2020 supports that notion. Sullivan said NFL executives and scouts contacted him with questions, and his response was succinct: “This guy right here is a ballplayer.”

Sullivan also gushed about Jefferson’s ability to receivers on the Cardinals.

“We watched Justin when Justin won the national championship, and Jerry is like, ‘Larry, I’m telling you. This guy is special,’” Fitzgerald recalled. “As soon as he hit the ground that rookie year with the Vikings, he came out guns blazing. I was like, ‘Man, Jerry. You never lie.’ And he was so proud.”

“You’ve got to know him and how he’s put together mentally,” Sullivan said of Jefferson’s success.

– – –

“I just want him to know that I care about how well he does,” Sullivan said. “And I want to see him be a Hall of Fame guy. He’s got that kind of ability. And he loves ball. He loooooooves ball. He’s the kinda guy where if you said, ‘Hey, we’re going to play a pickup game at midnight,’ he’d be ready to go.”

– – –

Like Fleck, Fitzgerald could identify Sullivan-isms in Jefferson’s releases against press coverage and how he runs out- and in-breaking routes.

“We worked hours and hours on those things,” Fitzgerald said. “He’s perfected it way quicker than I was able to.”

How so?

“He’s like Elastic Man,” Sullivan said. “He sticks his foot one way and goes another. He has great change of direction. Just a very gifted guy.”

Kirk Cousins has Justin Jefferson, Aaron Rodgers has no one as Vikings stake their claim

After Sunday’s 23-7 win, Sullivan texted Jefferson.

To congratulate him, for one.

But also to remind him of the guiding principle that will define this season and many more.

“The better you get, the better you have to be.”

DALLAS

It’s not the normal Texas swagger when Owner and Chief Medical Spokesperson Jerry Jones compares his team to David, and not Goliath.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

Dallas Cowboys fans are already in the dumps after a Week 1 loss, which included a thumb injury to Dak Prescott that will force the quarterback to the sideline for at least the next several weeks.

Adding to Dallas’s depression was that the Cowboys didn’t look good before Prescott got hurt, with the offense unable to generate anything against the Buccaneers.

Owner Jerry Jones isn’t so quick to declare the season a failure. He was asked Tuesday on the Shan and RJ show on 105.3 The Fan about his message to fans who say the season is already over.

“One of the things that has stood me about football, and I’m comparing to the things that we all do every day away from the football is that it can be looking very dark, dark for you and then it can reverse on you in an instant,” Jones said, via the Dallas Morning News. “It can go positive in an instant after you’ve got — we’ve got a lot of football. We’ve got a lot of really top football players. And we got an outstanding group that’s coaching them up in my view. … You can think negatively and everybody does and that’s normal. But, boy, we got a lot of positive things we can do. I have seen it just hopeless and walk out there and David slay the giant. I’ve seen it done.”

The Cowboys playing the role of David in this Goliath comparison is a new one for the club dubbed “America’s Team.”

Jones, who noted the team wouldn’t put Prescott on injured reserve, giving him a chance to come back inside of four weeks despite undergoing surgery, believes that if the Cowboys can hold down the fort until the starting QB returns, the season can be salvaged.

“At the same time, we buy us a little time here, catch it up a little bit and get Dak back out there,” Jones said. “He’s very capable of coming past this injury and having a great season, a great season — I emphasize that. And that’s not selling. That’s just if he didn’t have it, if we didn’t have it, it would be different. But we do, and, so, let’s hold what we’ve got, get this plane kind of landed. Right now, let’s patch up the holes and let’s come back at it.”

The issue for the Cowboys is that there were a lot of holes to patch before Prescott went down — from the receiving corps to the offensive line. Now they’re playing with a backup at the most important position in sports, with a matchup against the reigning AFC champions on tap Sunday.

Jones’ early season optimism in the face of potential disaster puts added pressure on Mike McCarthy to stack W’s sans his starting quarterback; otherwise, the blame will fall directly on the head coach.

– – –

Differing opinions on the Cowboys from Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com:

Which team should be most worried after Week 1?

Graziano: The Cowboys. Easy answer. Did any of the other teams lose their starting quarterback for the next six to eight weeks? Being without Dak Prescott (right thumb) for a significant chunk of time will cost the Cowboys, for sure, but even more alarming was how horrible they looked on offense against Tampa Bay before Dak got hurt. The line is a mess, CeeDee Lamb did not impress in his debut as the nominal No. 1 wide receiver, and there isn’t much else behind him. And not to pile on a guy who got hurt, but Prescott played a terrible game Sunday night as well. All of the concerns about the Cowboys’ offense that followed them into the season were on display, and it’s obviously not going to get any easier to fix the problem with QB1 on the shelf.

Fowler: I mean, it’s far from ideal, Dan, but I’m still sort of bullish on Dallas (can’t believe I’m saying that out loud). The Cowboys have drafted well and have a good roster, good defense. WR Michael Gallup’s return will help space the field. And Prescott could be back earlier than expected, per team owner Jerry Jones.

WASHINGTON

Less than two weeks after being shot in the knee and buttocks by DC criminals, RB BRIAN ROBINSON is back on the practice field.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Commanders running back Brian Robinson has taken another step toward returning to the playing field after being shot late last month.

Reporters at the team’s facility sent word that Robinson is working on a side field during the team’s practice session. Those reports said that Robinson showed no obvious signs of discomfort while he was doing agility work and riding on a stationary bike.

Robinson was shot in the knee and glute during an attempt to rob him in August, but he avoided any catastrophic injuries and was out of the hospital a couple of days later. Word from the team has been that they believe Robinson has a chance to play this season and a report last weekend indicated that a Week Five return — the earliest possible date Robinson can be activated from the non-football injury list — was a realistic possibility.

The Commanders took Robinson in the third round of this year’s draft and he appeared to be on track to play a big role in the offense before getting shot. It looks like he’ll still get an opportunity to play some role for the team this year and that would be one of the feel-good stories of the year in the NFL.

ATLANTA

Coach Arthur Smith offers a generally positive review of the performance of QB MARCUS MARIOTA in his first start as a Falcon.  Myles Simmons of ESPN.com:

Quarterback Marcus Mariota started his first game since 2019 in Week One and had middling results.

The Falcons lost their season opener to the Saints 27-26, with New Orleans putting together a furious fourth-quarter comeback to win with Wil Lutz‘s 51-yard field goal with 19 seconds left. Mariota was 20-of-33 passing for 215 yards and rushed 12 times for 72 yards with a touchdown. But he had a critical lost fumble inside the 10-yard line late in the third quarter on a possession where Atlanta could have gone up 30-10 with a TD.

But in evaluating Mariota’s performance on Wednesday, head coach Arthur Smith seemed to find there were elements to build on.

“I guess as you look at it, you try to move forward but to answer your question, there were a lot of positives,” Smith said in his press conference. “You don’t want to sit there and make excuses and that’s why I’m careful because you don’t want to sound like you’re patting yourself because we don’t know what the end result was but there were. I thought we were pretty effective moving the football and I thought he made some really good decisions for us. So, it was good to see.

“I think he started one game within the last two and a half years, give or take, he was dialed in and ready to go. Made some big-time throws when we needed them and certainly made some plays with his legs and there are a lot of things we ask him to do at the line of scrimmage.”

Mariota and the Atlanta offense will face another significant challenge this week, heading on the road to take on defensive tackle Aaron Donald and the Rams. We’ll see if Mariota can continue to give off those positive vibes in his second start.

SAN FRANCISCO

There is no doubt in the mind of former QB guru Mike Martz that QB TREY LANCE does not have what it takes.  We found this at NinersNation.com:

“I’ve never seen anything about this kid that was encouraging at all. He really has to plant himself to make a good throw. He’s not a quick decision guy. [Everything] about him being a mobile guy and making plays with his feet, he looked like a fullback stumbling around trying to run the ball to me. He’s not Lamar. I don’t know what he is. He’s not particularly good guy running with the football.

Based on what I saw today he missed two guys completely by themselves. I know it was in the rain but quarterbacks do that, you make those throws. I know this, he can only go up, he can only get better, because you can’t get any worse that what he did [Sunday]. I’ve never liked him, I still don’t like him, I’d like to know what he does so well. Because he’s not a great passer, doesn’t have great skills, takes him a long time to set himself and throw the football, misses easy throws and he’s not a particularly good runner. Other than that he’s a hell of a player.”

– – –

The Seahawks have won 17 of the last 20 meetings with the 49ers.

The three 49ers wins were by a total of 10 points, with a high of 5.

The last time the 49ers beat the Seahawks by 10+ points was in September, 2011.

The 49ers only scored 10 points in their opener.

Yet San Francisco opened as a 10-point favorite over Seattle.  By today, it’s down to 8.5 points, which still seems high.

SEATTLE

And, as quickly as it began, the highly-compensated season of S JAMAL ADAMS is over.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Seahawks safety Jamal Adams‘ season is over after one game.

Adams will have season-ending surgery to repair his torn quad tendon, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network.

During Monday night’s game over the Broncos, Adams went down awkwardly while pressuring Russell Wilson, then limped to the sideline and was carted to the locker room. It was apparent immediately that he had suffered a significant injury.

It’s the latest setback for Adams, who arrived in Seattle in a massive trade that included two first-round draft picks, and who signed a big contract extension with the Seahawks.

Adams’ first two seasons in Seattle were disappointing, and now his third season with the Seahawks is over just as it was getting started.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Good story here on WR DeANDRE CARTER.  With WR KEENAN ALLEN ailing, the Chargers are counting on Carter – who is playing for his late brother.  Bridget Condon of NFL.com:

When Keenan Allen left the Los Angeles Chargers’ season opener with a hamstring injury in the second quarter, quarterback Justin Herbert lost the most productive passing-game partner of his career, with the pair having collaborated on 206 completions since 2020.

In Allen’s absence, a player stepped up who was decidedly less established — but driven to fulfill a promise.

A 29-year-old journeyman, DeAndre Carter was averaging just over 11 receiving yards per game entering 2022. In Sunday’s 24-19 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, Carter logged three catches for 64 yards, including a 23-yard scoring grab that gave Los Angeles a 17-3 lead at the half. He paced the team in yards per catch (21.3) and was second only to Allen in total receiving yards.

“It definitely feels good being able to contribute to the team, contribute to a win,” Carter said on Tuesday. “Being able to produce and make plays and stuff like that is good. I feel like I’m coming through on my promise to him and making my family proud.”

The him Carter is referring to is his younger brother, Kaylan, who died in 2013 after going into cardiac arrest during a weight training session with his football team in high school.

Kaylan had hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (a disease associated with an enlarged heart), and he spent two months in a coma at the hospital before he died.

“It’s difficult,” Carter said. “Hardest thing I’ve ever been through in my life. It’s difficult. We were real close. I felt like I lost my best friend, and I didn’t know where to go next. I threw myself into football and school, trying to keep my mind off of it.”

During the time Kaylan was in a coma, DeAndre Carter was in fall camp as a junior at Sacramento State. He went to visit his younger brother in the hospital, knowing it might be the last time he ever saw him.

“I made him a promise that I was going to make it in this league for the both of us,” Carter said, “It was both of our dreams. I told him I was going to do everything that he wanted to that he never got the opportunity to do. That’s what got me up every day after being cut so many times. Being out of the league for a whole year (in 2016), that’s what got me up in the morning and kept me going.”

Less than two months later, he was cut.

“You kind of just have to stay with it, trust the process,” Carter said. “Trust God, trust the process. Your opportunity is going to come, and when it comes, make the most of it, take advantage of it. It’s tough, mentally, not getting the opportunity, but everything happens when it’s supposed to.”

That opportunity is presenting itself once again for Carter this season with the Chargers. The team signed him to a one-year deal back in April, mainly so that he could serve as a returner, head coach Brandon Staley said Tuesday. However, Staley said, the team quickly saw he could bring a lot more to the table than that.

“He’s a coach’s dream,” Staley said. “That is kind of how DeAndre is. He is such a hard worker. He’s so unselfish. He does so many different things from a role standpoint. I think he works extremely hard no matter what he’s doing throughout the day, whether it’s in a meeting, in a lift, out at the walk-through, out at practice.”

BALTIMORE

Repectfully, QB LAMAR JACKSON stifles media questions about his suspended contract negotiations.  Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com:

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is officially finished talking about his contract situation, declining to answer three questions Wednesday that were related to his stalled negotiations with the team.

“Respectfully, I’m done talking about it,” Jackson said. “I told you guys before, I was going to be done with it Week 1. Week 1 is over with. We’re done talking about it. I’m focused on the Dolphins now.”

On Sunday, sources told ESPN’s Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter that Jackson turned down the Ravens’ five-year extension offer worth over $250 million with $133 million guaranteed at signing. Sources added that team officials balked at Jackson’s desire to have a fully guaranteed deal, similar to the one given to Deshaun Watson, which led to the Ravens announcing Friday that talks had been suspended until the end of the season.

After the Ravens’ 24-9 win over the Jets on Sunday, Jackson told ESPN’s Dianna Russini that he turned down an offer that included guaranteed money between $160 million and $180 million. Now, Jackson will play under his fifth-year option, which will pay him $23.016 million this season.

On Wednesday, Jackson shut down all questions about contract negotiations with the Ravens.

Asked why the guaranteed money was so important to him, Jackson smiled and said, “Like I said. I’m done talking about that, respectfully. Dolphin time, man.”

Jackson came to the media session with a bag of popcorn, saying he would pass it out for good questions. It became clear early that, from the line of questioning, Jackson wasn’t going to hand out much of his snack.

In other news, Ravens No. 1 running back J.K. Dobbins was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice, which means he’s trending toward playing in his first game of the season. Dobbins, who was limited all last week, missed all of last season after significantly injuring his left knee.

“He’s looking pretty good to me,” Jackson said of Dobbins.

There also is a sense that Jackson didn’t like his fiscal business being leaked to ESPN once he started seeking advice from the NFLPA:

The Ravens and quarterback Lamar Jackson had done a very effective job of keeping extremely quiet any and all details about the offer(s) made by Baltimore to their franchise quarterback. That ended on Sunday, with Chris Mortensen of ESPN disclosing plenty of details about the contract.

The report has the union’s fingerprints all over it, in part because Mortensen specifically identified in one of his tweets “union sources.” In other words, someone from the union was talking. Per a source with knowledge of Jackson’s mindset regarding the negotiations, he will be “pissed” that something was said by someone with the NFL Players Association.

Other evidence that the reporting came from the union includes the omissions from the details of the deal. There was no mention of the cash flow in year one or year two. If the Ravens were leaking the information, that likely would have been included. Because it is likely very significant in magnitude. And because it balances out the insistence on a fully-guaranteed deal.

Also, the notion that the rejected is worth up to $290 million, as reported by Mortensen, was simply wrong — as evidenced by ESPN pushing a new story that ditches the $290 million number and replaces it with $250 million.

Hensley on the path forward:

Once the season is over, Baltimore’s challenge shifts back to getting Jackson signed long-term. But in the meantime, questions abound.

Will Jackson get the franchise tag next year?

This is where the Ravens and Jackson are headed unless they can find a compromise, although the two sides have been working on that for the last 20 months without an agreement.

March 7 is the deadline for teams to use the franchise tag. If the sides can’t reach a deal by then, the Ravens would have to use the tag on a quarterback for the first time in the franchise’s 27-year history to keep Jackson from becoming an unrestricted free agent. Jackson would make $45 million in 2023 if he plays under the exclusive franchise tag.

This is rare territory for franchise quarterbacks. In the previous 10 offseasons, only two have been given the tag: Kirk Cousins (2016 and 2017), who was with Washington at the time, and Dallas’ Dak Prescott (2020 and 2021), according to ESPN Stats & Information. Prescott eventually signed a long-term extension with the Cowboys while Cousins hit free agency and signed a landmark deal with the Minnesota Vikings.

History suggests Baltimore has time to avoid placing the tag on Jackson. A decade ago, quarterback Joe Flacco declined the Ravens’ offer on a contract extension entering his fifth year, just like Jackson. After Flacco led the Ravens to a Super Bowl win, the team signed him to a record-setting deal 25 days later (and three days before the tag deadline).

If the Ravens are unable to reach an agreement with Jackson by March, they know they have contractual control over Jackson for the next two seasons with the tag.

How much of a risk is Jackson taking?

The only time Jackson missed any games due to injury was at the end of last season, when he was sidelined the last four games with a bruised right ankle after dropping back and throwing a pass against the Browns. The Ravens ended up missing the playoffs. ‘’

Jackson acknowledged that it was “a pretty big risk” last season, as well, and that anything can happen. “God forbid the wrong thing happens,” he said.

But in 2020, Prescott suffered a significant ankle injury while playing under the franchise tag and missed the final 11 games of the season. And the Cowboys still gave him a four-year, $160 million contract the next offseason.

The biggest concern is Jackson’s style of play, which includes breaking long runs and eluding pass-rushers. Robert Griffin III, who also was a dual-threat quarterback, was never the same after he injured his right knee at the end of his rookie season in 2012.

Jackson has been durable during his first four seasons, despite taking an NFL-high 737 hits. The only time Jackson missed any games because of injury was at the end of last season, when he was sidelined the last four games with a bruised right ankle after dropping back and throwing a pass.

The monetary gamble is this: Five quarterbacks have signed for at least $150 million in guaranteed money since Jackson was eligible for an extension. Jackson is guaranteed $23.016 million this season under his fifth-year option.

But waiting has been a profitable strategy so far for Jackson. Since he became eligible for an extension last year, five quarterbacks have signed deals that have exceeded $150 million in guaranteed money, and the top average per year for quarterbacks has jumped from $45 million (Patrick Mahomes) to $50.3 million (Aaron Rodgers).

ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter reported Sunday that Jackson turned down a five-year extension offer worth over $250 million with $133 million guaranteed at signing, according to sources. The extension years in the Ravens’ proposal would have paid Jackson a higher average salary than the deals signed this summer by Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson and Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray and also included more money guaranteed at signing, according to sources.

But sources told ESPN that the Ravens balked at Jackson’s wish for a deal that was fully guaranteed at signing, similar to Deshaun Watson’s with the Browns.

How much of a risk are the Ravens taking?

The only gamble by not signing Jackson before the season is the top quarterback value escalating even more.

Watson, who was facing 22 lawsuits at the time that alleged sexual assault and inappropriate conduct during massage sessions, received $230 million guaranteed from the Browns in March.

The last two franchise quarterbacks to sign contract extensions since Watson — Murray and Wilson — both landed significantly less guaranteed money, which adds to Baltimore’s argument that Watson’s deal is an outlier. Murray received $189.5 million guaranteed, and Wilson got $165 million.

By not reaching a long-term deal with Jackson now, the Ravens are essentially betting that Joe Burrow and the Chargers’ Justin Herbert won’t reset the quarterback market. Both 2020 first-round picks are eligible for extensions after this season.

The Bengals and Chargers are known for being historically conservative spenders. But the Bengals have signed their last two franchise quarterbacks to extensions (Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton), and the Chargers ranked fifth in cash spending this year. It wouldn’t be surprising if Burrow and/or Herbert signed long-term deals by this time next year. The big question is whether either will surpass Watson in guaranteed money.

What are the chances of the Ravens trading Jackson next offseason?

The Ravens would only consider dealing Jackson if they felt there was zero chance of finalizing a long-term deal. It’s difficult to think Baltimore would let Jackson go the Cousins route — playing two seasons under the tag before letting him hit free agency in 2025 — and be content with getting a third-round compensatory pick in return.

This offseason, the Broncos traded two first-round picks and two second-rounders to the Seahawks to acquire 33-year-old Russell Wilson. Imagine what the Ravens could get for Jackson, who doesn’t turn 26 until Jan. 7.

The Ravens have one of the NFL’s top backups in Tyler Huntley, who nearly led Baltimore to upsets over the eventual Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams and the Green Bay Packers last season. Huntley, 24, is a restricted free agent next offseason, so the Ravens have to make a decision on him, as well.

But trading Jackson would be an unprecedented move. There have been nine trades involving NFL MVP quarterbacks — from Roman Gabriel in 1969 to Matt Ryan this year — and none of the QBs were dealt when they were under the age of 30.

Throughout the negotiations, Ravens officials and Jackson have expressed a belief a deal will get done.

But Friday’s news means that optimism is on hold for now.

PITTSBURGH

And now it looks like EDGE T.J. WATT is headed for IR.  Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said earlier this week that the team would make a decision on putting linebacker T.J. Watt on injured reserve at the appropriate time and it appears that time will be in the near future.

Field Yates of ESPN reports that the Steelers are expected to place Watt on injured reserve before facing the Patriots this Sunday. Yates adds that they will also be signing linebacker David Anenih off of the Titans practice squad.

Watt is not having surgery to repair his torn pec and is expected to be able to return in about six weeks after rehabbing the injury. Going on injured reserve would leave him ineligible to play in the next four games.

Anenih signed with the Titans after going undrafted out of Houston this year. He had seven tackles, three sacks and two forced fumbles in three preseason appearances.

HOUSTON

Coach Lovie Smith has no regrets about settling for a tie with the Colts.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

Lovie Smith didn’t lose his first game as head coach of the Texans, but he didn’t win it either.

The Texans faced a fourth-and-three at the Indianapolis 49 with 26 seconds left in overtime. Smith opted to punt, settling for the 20-20 tie, rather than attempting to get a first down and into position for a potential game-winning field goal.

 “There’s a lot of football left to go in the season. It’s kind of as simple as that,” Smith said of his decision, via the Houston Chronicle. “I felt like a tie was better than a potential loss. Defensively, we weren’t really stopping them an awful lot at the end.”

Smith said he briefly considered going for it, but the Texans lost 2 yards on third-and-one at the Indianapolis 47 on the previous play. CBS analyst Tiki Barber questioned the third-down play call.

Smith received criticism postgame from fans and media for not playing to win with his fourth-down decision.

“At the time, it’s not like we were playing our best defense,” Smith said. “We were drained. We were gassed a little bit.”

The Texans hadn’t scored since 7:16 remained in the third quarter when they took a 20-3 lead. They allowed Matt Ryan to lead the Colts to 17 points in the fourth quarter, tying the game with 1:54 left in regulation.

With the Jaguars and Titans losing, the Texans and Colts sit atop the AFC South standings after Week 1.

We can understand punting on 4^th-and-long deep in your own territory.  But on 4^th-and-3 from midfield?

JACKSONVILLE

After a decent showing in defeat in DC, the Jaguars are 4-point home underdogs to the tied Colts in their home opener.  This, despite the fact Indy can’t win in Duval as Zac Kiefer of The Athletic documents:

It is among the most befuddling regularities in a league that thrives on unpredictability.

Consider the venues the Colts have won at in recent seasons: in Kansas City in 2019, a few months before the Chiefs captured Super Bowl LIV; in a rainstorm in San Francisco last October against a 49ers team that would come a few plays shy of a berth in Super Bowl LVI; in Buffalo a month later, a 41-15 throttling of the playoff-bound Bills; and if you go all the way back to 2016, the Colts won at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, beating Aaron Rodgers and the Packers 31-26.

The one venue they haven’t won at, not in eight long years, is Jacksonville.

TIAA Bank Field is an easy win for most NFL franchises, but a house of horrors for the Indianapolis Colts.

“You can believe in curses or whatever, but it is weird,” said center Ryan Kelly, the longest-tenured Colt. “I guess it’s like an anomaly.”

“I just don’t know,” added defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. “It’s just hard to put your finger on it.”

Indianapolis has dropped seven straight road games to the Jaguars, six in Jacksonville and one in London (which technically counted as a Jaguars home game). Consider: The Jags have just seven home wins since 2019; three have come over the Colts. They are an NFL-worst 33-81 since 2015, the year the streak started, but 8-8 versus the Colts. Over that stretch, the Jags have just two wins against the Texans and three over Tennessee.

Again, they have eight over the Colts.

Colts at Jaguars, since 2015

2015      Jaguars 51, Colts 16                    Bortles

2016      Jaguars 30, Colts 27* in London  Bortles

2017      Jaguars 30, Colts 10                    Bortles

2018      Jaguars 6, Colts 0                       Kessler

2019      Jaguars 38, Colts 20                   Minshew

2020       Jaguars 27, Colts 20                 Minsehew

2021        Jaguars 26, Colts 11                 Lawrence

The Jags dropped a franchise record 51 points on the Colts in that 2015 game, and twice more have scored season-highs in victories over Indianapolis (38 in 2019, 26 in 2021). They opened the 2020 season with a win over Indy, 27-20, then proceeded to drop their final 15 games.

“Over the years, they’ve just had our number,” offered running back Nyheim Hines, a victim of four losses in Jacksonville.

Going all the way back to 2003 — a total of 306 regular-season games — the Colts have been shut out only twice. Both came against the Jaguars.

Dating back to 2015, the Jaguars have averaged 19.6 points per game against 31 NFL teams and 26.1 when facing the Colts. They’ve allowed just 18.3 to the Colts but 24.6 to everyone else.

Those margins are staggering in a league where games are often decided by three or four points.

What gives?

“If you’re a team in the NFL, I don’t care who you are, there’s gonna be a team you don’t match up well with for whatever reason,” Hines said. “For whatever reason, they’ve just had our number on offense and defense.

“To get to new levels, you gotta face — and beat — some new devils.”

But we should point out that the new Colts QB MATT RYAN is 4-0 in his career against Jacksonville.

MIAMI

QB TUA TAGOVIALOA takes some flack despite a Week 1 win and decent numbers:

Tua Tagovailoa stayed undefeated against Bill Belichick and the Patriots on Sunday, leading the Dolphins to a 20-7 victory over their rivals in Week 1. But some prominent names around the NFL remain unconvinced the young quarterback is the future in Miami. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tagovailoa’s predecessor, indicated to the “Pardon My Take” podcast this week that Tua’s physical limitations will make it hard for him to emerge as “elite.” Former Saints coach Sean Payton took it a step further, telling “The Herd with Colin Cowherd” that he foresees the Dolphins benching Tagovailoa later this year.

“I get how dicey every opinion around Tua is,” said Fitzpatrick, who spent 2019-2020 on the Dolphins. “But if you’re a top-10 quarterback, you have to have at least one trait that is absolutely special — something you can do that nobody else can do. … With Tua, it’s the not the arm strength. It’s not the ability to run. It’s not the ability to scramble or get out of trouble. So what is it? … Anticipation and accuracy. Those are the things he has to be elite at. And I think that he is very, very good at it.

“The problem is,” Fitzpatrick continued, “sometimes you have to create … and he’s not gonna be able to scramble around, escape the pocket and make the big plays down the field. So he has to take what he has that’s elite — his accuracy — and hopefully, as he gets better, his decision-making, and he has to be the best in the NFL at it, because he’s limited in some of those other ways.”

Payton was even blunter while skimming over the Dolphins’ QB situation. Months after he was contacted by Miami as a potential head coaching candidate (for which the Dolphins were punished, as Payton was still under contract with the Saints), the former Super Bowl champion told Cowherd that he expects up to eight teams to make a QB change during the 2022 season, the Dolphins included.

“I think at some point we’ll see (another QB starting) in Miami,” he said, before alluding to Tagovailoa’s backup. “And they played well with Tua (in Week 1), but Teddy Bridgewater, who I’ve had before, he’s an outstanding player.”

Tagovailoa went 23 of 33 for 270 yards and one touchdown in the Dolphins’ Week 1 win over New England. He’ll get his next chance to prove doubters wrong when Miami visits the Ravens (1-0) this Sunday.

We would note that the Dolphins are 8-1 in Tua’s last 9 starts.  The Dolphins have scored 20+ points in all 8 wins.

His passer rating is a pretty good 94.3 rating with 69.3% completion pct, 10 TDs, 5 INTs.

Not sure why he would be benched.

THIS AND THAT

DON’T DROPS

Matthew Berry of ESPN.com has three names to hang on to despite Week 1 Fantasy quietude:

There are some players I can’t talk you off the ledge on (like Allen Robinson, sorry), but here are three players who we’ve been asked about a bunch that you should absolutely be patient with: 

Devonta Smith

Smith bageled in Week 1, but all of the underlying peripherals are bullish. He played 96% of the snaps and 98% of the pass plays. A.J. Brown simply hogged all the targets in this one (45% target share), but that will balance out in the coming weeks.

The Eagles look like they’ll be one of the most explosive offenses in the league, and their pass rate over expectation points to a more aerial-friendly approach than they had at the end of last year.

Kyle Pitts

Pitts disappointed in the box score, but there are lots of reasons for optimism. He still had seven targets, as well as 64 unrealized air yards (a metric we look at to see which players receiving opportunities are due for regression).

On top of that, the Falcons actually had a lead most of this game and therefore only tallied 33 pass attempts. The Pitts breakout thesis has not changed. Big games are coming.

Travis Etienne

James Robinson was the talk of the town Sunday (and rightfully so!), but I’ve seen way too many people hitting the panic button about Etienne. For starters, Trevor Lawrence missed him on a wide-open TD pass early in the game, which would have painted his day in a much different light.

He also played 75% of the long-down and distance snaps, 100% of the two-minute offense, and 100% of the short yardage work. Oh, and he averaged 11.75 per carry. Robinson isn’t going away, but Etienne’s role (and ability to create big plays) remains strong.

And this from Dan Graziano of ESPN.com:

What’s your fantasy football call of the week?

Graziano: Derek Carr and the Raiders’ passing game bounces back. Carr was 20th (through Sunday) in fantasy QB scoring in Week 1 as (other than Davante Adams) the Raiders’ aerial attack didn’t look as if it has hit its stride yet. But I watched the Cardinals try in vain to stop Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Sunday, and while Carr is no Mahomes, I don’t see how Arizona puts up much resistance against a Raiders team looking to get on track. If you waited until late in your draft and got Carr as your starting QB, or if you play in a two-QB league and were counting on him, don’t despair just yet. A big year is still in store for Carr and his pass-catchers.