The Daily Briefing Thursday, September 16, 2021

DETROIT

RB De’ANDRE SWIFT has been seeing more reps even as rumors about a police involvement swirl on-line.  John Maakaron of SI.com:

Detroit Lions second-year running back D’Andre Swift spoke to the media for the first time, following an internet rumor that surfaced online earlier this week.

‘I’m not here to address any internet rumors,” Swift said.

When asked point blank if he was being investigated by the police in Philadelphia, Swift replied, “No, sir. Not to my knowledge, no.”

Earlier this week, an image circulated all over social media that suggested the ex-Georgia Bulldogs running back was involved in a police matter in Philadelphia.

“We cannot comment on the contents as they pertain to ongoing criminal investigations; however, the PPD has opened an internal investigation into the validity of the image,” Philadelphia police said in a released statement. “If the image is found to be authentic, the department will work to identify the person or persons responsible for its release and will seek appropriate action.”

We tracked things back to this tweet from Dave Kluge of “Football Guys”:

@DaveKluge

I just called the Philly PD and spoke with an officer in the Commissioner’s Office.

There was an anonymous tip that came in via Tipline over 2 months ago that implicated D’Andre Swift in a murder. The officer said that Swift is not being investigated at this time.

@DaveKluge

I introduced myself as a journalist and said that was trying to confirm or deny the rumors. The officer I spoke with laughed and said that D’Andre Swift or any other NFL players was not being investigated for murder.

DALLAS

DL DeMARCUS LAWRENCE has a broken foot.  Todd Archer of ESPN.com:

Dallas Cowboys defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence suffered a broken foot in Wednesday’s practice that will force him to miss six to eight weeks, according to sources.

It is a giant blow to a defense that did not generate a sack in Week 1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and could also be without its second-best pass rusher, Randy Gregory, on Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Lawrence was listed as a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice but immediately had an MRI, which revealed the break. Lawrence did not practice for most of training camp because of offseason back surgery, but he recorded six tackles, two quarterback pressures and forced a fumble against the Buccaneers. He has 45.5 sacks for his career and is a two-time Pro Bowl pick.

Lawrence tweeted on Wednesday that he “will be back & ready.”

As for Gregory, coach Mike McCarthy did not sound hopeful before practice about him passing COVID-19 protocols in time to play against the Chargers.

“If you look at the history, it’s been 10 days pretty much everybody we’ve dealt with in the COVID protocol,” he said. “We’ll just see how it goes.”

With Lawrence out and if Gregory cannot play, then the Cowboys would potentially turn to Dorance Armstrong and Tarell Basham as their starters at defensive end with Bradlee Anae and Chauncey Golston as backups. They have combined for 10 sacks in their careers, or only 3.5 sacks more than what Lawrence recorded a year ago. Basham has 7.5 sacks in 59 games.

Golston, a third-round pick in this year’s draft, missed all of training camp with a hamstring injury and was inactive for the season opener.

Perhaps the start of Wednesday’s practice was a bad omen for the Cowboys’ defensive line. Assistant defensive line coach Leon Lett was carted off the field with an apparent right knee injury that will require surgery.

Since the 31-29 loss to the Buccaneers, the Cowboys have lost four starters: Wide receiver Michael Gallup was placed on injured reserve with a calf strain, right tackle La’el Collins was suspended five games for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy, Gregory was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list and now Lawrence is out with the broken foot.

WFAA-TV first reported the news about Lawrence having a broken foot.

G ZACK MARTIN will return to the lineup after missing the game at Tampa Bay after running afoul of the NFL’s COVID protocols.

NEW YORK GIANTS

RB SAQUON BARKLEY has the short rest prompted by tonight’s game in his head.  Jordan Ranaan of ESPN.com:

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley is officially listed as questionable for Thursday night against the Washington Football Team as he attempts to play for the second time in five days while returning from a major knee injury.

The expectation, barring a setback, remains that Barkley will play, a source told ESPN. Barkley and coach Joe Judge have said throughout the week that they believe he’ll be ready.

Tight end Evan Engram (calf) will not be available for the Giants (0-1) against Washington. Starting left guard Shane Lemieux (knee) and outside linebacker Cam Brown (hamstring) have also been ruled out.

Barkley admitted Tuesday that playing two games four days apart while coming back from a torn ACL in his right knee was not ideal. He tore the knee ligament in Week 2 of last season, had surgery in October and started the summer on the physically unable to perform list. He didn’t face his first contact until just a ew weeks ago and was feeling natural soreness after being tackled for the first time in almost a year on Sunday.

Asked when he would know whether his body would be ready for the challenge of playing on such short rest, he conceded the unknown.

“Thursday. When I’m out there,” Barkley said.

Barkley had 10 carries for 26 yards and one catch for 1 yard in his return during a 27-13 loss to the Denver Broncos on Sunday. He played 28 snaps — 48% of the Giants’ offensive plays — and was mostly a nonfactor without the ability to get into open space.

Barkley is expected to have a similar workload Thursday night, perhaps handling slightly more than 50% of the offensive snaps while sharing time with Devontae Booker. A range of 12-17 touches is likely, although there remains a great element of the unknown.

Neither Barkley nor Judge was aware of any players who tore their knee and faced a similar challenge of two games so close to one another immediately upon their return.

“Yeah, that’s a great question. I don’t think the schedule is ideal for coming back off a major knee injury to have two games back-to-back, but that’s what it is,” Barkley said. “That’s what’s in front of me, and that’s the challenge I have to face.

“To the question of my workload and how much can I handle, it’s easier for me to stay up here and say, ‘I don’t know, just listen to the coaches.’ When you’re in the game and your adrenaline’s going and you start getting a rhythm and you start feeling yourself again, that can go from less reps or more reps. I don’t know, to be honest. I’m not in that decision. I don’t make that decision. I’m just playing my role by showing up on Thursday and, the plays that I do get, try to help my team to the best of my capability.”

Whatever is going on, Albert Breer of SI.com shares a reader’s concern about Barkley’s consistency:

Is Saquon’s inability to read leverage and attack the lane fixable? Year 4, and it’s still a problem. On days where the run blocking is fine, he makes them look awful by getting tackled for losses by dancing for HRs. Wayne Gallman shouldn’t look like an improvement down to down.

Preston, this is something that’s been on my radar for a long time—and it’s actually something I noticed after Saquon Barkley’s last game against my alma mater in 2017. The then Penn State junior had a 97-yard touchdown on the game’s opening kickoff. But the rest of the day? He had 44 yards on 21 carries and 23 yards on four catches.

So I looked a little deeper at it and saw a pattern. By the time that season was over, Barkley had been held to fewer than 80 yards in seven of his final 11 games and had just 88 rushing yards the week before that stretch started. In 2016, Barkley posted just five 100-yard games and was held to 85 yards or fewer seven times. Which means in his final two college seasons, he had more games of 85 yards or fewer (14) than he had of 100 yards or more (10). Add in his freshman year, and he had 20 of the former and 15 of the latter as a collegian.

Want some context? Jonathan Taylor rushed for 100 yards in 22 of 27 games his last two years at Wisconsin, and 32 of 41 games in his three years in Madison. Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 100 yards in 17 of his final 18 games at Ohio State, and 26 of his final 30. So those two guys, out of the same conference, were far more consistent coming into the NFL.

And sure enough, this trend carried right over into the pros. Barkley’s played 32 NFL games and has rushed for fewer than 50 yards on more occasions (13) than he has rushed for more than 100 yards (11). Moreover, in seven of his 11 100-yard games, he’s had a run of 50 yards or more, which only adds to the idea that he’s a football Adam Dunn (.237 career average with 462 home runs).

Now, it’s fair to say that with any running back, there are more factors than just how he’s running—there’s blocking, how a defense is playing him and how offensive coaches approach the game. I also couldn’t tell you whether vision is an issue with Barkley. What I would say, though, is week-to-week consistency of production for Barkley followed him to the NFL, the same it has for Elliott (a two-time NFL rushing champion) and, early on, Taylor.

If I were the Giants, I’d be really careful about giving Barkley his next contract, and I didn’t feel that way about Elliott or Todd Gurley when they signed, mostly because their teams’ offensive identities were centered on the tailbacks. Four years in, you can’t say that about the Giants. We’ll see whether that changes.

WASHINGTON

Like the Bears, the WFT has had a long hunt (in this case approaching 30 years) looking for a QB.  John Keim of ESPN.com ranks the pretenders and contenders (significantly edited for space, you can see the whole thing  here):

:

On Sunday, Ryan Fitzpatrick became the Washington Football Team’s 31st starting quarterback since Mark Rypien left the lineup in Week 2 of the 1993 season.

Fitzpatrick left the 20-16 loss against the Los Angeles Chargers with a hip injury after attempting six passes and was placed on injured reserve with a chance to return later this season. Backup Taylor Heinicke was named the starter for Thursday’s game against the visiting New York Giants (8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network), a situation that is emblematic of the franchise’s quest for a long-term answer at the position.

It’s a 29-year search that has featured bad timing, worse luck and questionable decisions.

Rypien, who led the team to victory in Super Bowl XXVI after the 1991 season, started 26 games over the next two years but never rekindled his winning magic. Washington has since used first-round draft picks on five quarterbacks (Heath Shuler, Patrick Ramsey, Jason Campbell, Robert Griffin III and Dwayne Haskins), acquired three who started in Super Bowls for other teams (Jeff Hostetler, Donovan McNabb and Rex Grossman), and watched two others (Brad Johnson and Rich Gannon) do so after leaving the team. It also had a transformative quarterback (Griffin) who starred as a rookie, got hurt and was gone from the franchise three years later.

As Washington closes on the 30th anniversary of its last Super Bowl win, ESPN set out to rank the 30 quarterbacks who started for the franchise between Rypien and Fitzpatrick, to provide context about the search for a leader that has touched four decades.

As a reporter who has covered 28 of the 30 players on this list — and after interviewing nearly two dozen people, including former Washington coaches and teammates — arriving at an irrefutable ranking for me was challenging. Several of these quarterbacks barely touched the field with Washington, while others faced obstacles such as coaching staffs that didn’t want them, schemes that didn’t fit their talents or injuries.

We enlisted the help of ESPN Analytics to apply a sense of order. That ranking (explained below) isn’t perfect, but it does highlight the volatility of Washington’s quest.

No quarterback since Rypien has made more than 60 starts for this franchise. Only two — Kirk Cousins and Jason Campbell — topped 50 starts, and 12 made five or fewer. Heck, receiver Terry McLaurin has played 30 games in Washington and caught passes from seven quarterbacks.

During Washington’s search, its NFC East rivals have enjoyed long stretches of stability at the position. The Dallas Cowboys have had three quarterbacks (Troy Aikman, Tony Romo and Dak Prescott) start at least 70 games; Eli Manning started 234 for the New York Giants; and from 2000 to 2012 the Philadelphia Eagles had Donovan McNabb (10 seasons) and Michael Vick (three seasons) combine for 172 starts over that span.

The turnover has hurt the quality of QB play for Washington, which has had two postseason wins since Rypien’s last full season in 1992. Nobody knew the frustration better than right tackle Jon Jansen, who played with 10 starting quarterbacks from 1999 to 2008.

“[When there’s] constant change at quarterback,” Jansen said, “you don’t ever get a chance to develop a rhythm and develop the relationship you need on the field.”

Here is our analytics-based ranking, presented in order from the back of the pack at No. 30 to the best at No. 1. Included are thoughts from ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. on the five QBs who were first-round draft picks by Washington.

Note: ESPN Analytics ranked the QBs according to a combination of regular-season passing efficiency (yards per attempt), weighted 75%, and total passing yards, weighted 25%. Players with few appearances (fewer than 1,000 passing yards) were ranked below those with more significant appearances and sorted solely by total passing yards. To account for the changing nature of the NFL’s passing game, yardage and efficiency were adjusted according to the years in which they occurred.

* Games and record totals include playoff appearances with Washington.

30. Mark Sanchez (2018)

Games: 2 | Record: 0-1 | TDs: 0 | INTs: 3 | Pass yards: 138

29. Taylor Heinicke (2020-present)*

Games: 3 | Record: 0-1 | TDs: 2 | INTs: 0 | Pass yards: 259

28. Cary Conklin (1990-93)

Games: 5 | Record: 0-2 | TDs: 5 | INTs: 3 | Pass yards: 512

27. Josh Johnson (2018)

Games: 4 | Record: 1-2 | TDs: 3 | INTs: 4 | Pass yards: 590

26. Kyle Allen (2020-present)

Games: 4 | Record: 1-3 | TDs: 4 | INTs: 1 | Pass yards: 610

25. Rich Gannon (1993)

Games: 8 | Record: 1-3 | TDs: 3 | INTs: 7 | Pass yards: 704

Gannon wasn’t healthy in Washington.

“I told him ‘I could sit flat-footed and throw the ball farther than you,'” said former running back Brian Mitchell, who played quarterback in college. “When he played here, he did not have the same arm he did when he was in Oakland. It was nowhere close.”

Here’s why: Gannon needed shoulder surgery and missed all of 1994

24. Danny Wuerffel (2002)

Games: 7 | Record: 2-2 | TDs: 3 | INTs: 6 | Pass yards: 719

The beginning of the end for coach Steve Spurrier in Washington occurred when the front office, against his strong wishes, cut Wuerffel before the 2003 season. Spurrier was shown statistics the night before cuts to convince him it was the right move. Wuerffel never played again.

Keim’s take: He just didn’t have the arm to play in the NFL.

23. John Beck (2011)

Games: 4 | Record: 0-3 | TDs: 2 | INTs: 4 | Pass yards: 858

Said former Washington tight end Chris Cooley: “What I remember is he called everyone and said, ‘This is John Beck, your starting quarterback.’ We all called each other and said, ‘Is he the starting QB or just saying that?’ I didn’t hate the confidence.”

But it didn’t translate to games. His last two starts were disasters: He was sacked 10 times in a shutout loss against the Buffalo Bills because he wouldn’t throw the ball.

“He panicked,” Cooley said.

The next week he dumped the ball off to running back Roy Helu 14 times and averaged 5.4 yards per pass attempt. In those games, Beck posted Total QBRs of 11.3 and 25.8, respectively.

“He thought he was going to be the guy,” former receiver Santana Moss said. “He sucked ass; I won’t lie to you. I broke my hand and didn’t play the [final two] games with him. Nothing better could have happened to me, because I didn’t have to play with this guy. … You talk all this stuff in the offseason and lay this egg.”

Beck never played again but has transformed himself into a quarterback teacher, training players for the NFL.

Keim’s take: I would have ranked him No. 30 based on the eye test and also with input from a number of ex-players.

22. Jeff Hostetler (1997)

Games: 6 | Record: 2-1 | TDs: 5 | INTs: 10 | Pass yards: 899

21. Shane Matthews (2002)

Games: 8 | Record: 3-4 | TDs: 11 | INTs: 6 | Pass yards: 1,251

20. Tim Hasselbeck (2003-04)

Games: 7 | Record: 1-4 | TDs: 5 | INTs: 7 | Pass yards: 1,012

19. Dwayne Haskins (2019-20)

Games: 16 | Record: 3-10 | TDs: 12 | INTs: 14 | Pass yards: 2,804

Washington had him rated as a third-round draft pick in 2019, but multiple sources said higher-ups made them give Haskins a first-round grade and the team drafted him No. 15 overall. It was a bad marriage: Washington’s staff needed to win, but Haskins needed time to mature.

His game didn’t improve and his maturity level was an issue for two coaching staffs and the front office. He missed one victory formation snap because he was taking a picture with a fan; he didn’t study the way the coaches wanted; he was fined multiple times in 2020 for violating COVID-19 protocols, stripped of his captaincy and eventually cut.

Keim’s take: I would have slotted him at No. 25, but some of that ranking stems from the disappointing way he approached being an NFL quarterback.

Kiper’s take on Haskins (2019 first-round draft pick, No. 15 overall): He’s a pocket guy, big strong-armed guy. It made sense: local guy sliding down. He fell in their lap. It’s like Mac Jones falling in New England’s lap or Aaron Rodgers falling into Green Bay’s lap. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

I don’t think you can look back and say it was a horrible pick. In hindsight, yeah, but not when it was made. There were always questions with Dwayne: Are you going to be the first one in the building, the last one out? How much does he love the game? Does he study the game? What kind of leader is he? How do his teammates feel about him?

18. Alex Smith (2018-20)

Games: 18 | Record: 11-5 | TDs: 16 | INTs: 13 | Pass yards: 3,762

The key stat: During his time in Washington the team was 6-27 when he didn’t start. Washington was 6-3 when he suffered his broken fibula and tibia in 2018, then lost 18 of the next 22 games.

Keim’s take: I would have ranked him in the top five. He and Mark Brunell were similar, so this is way too low for Smith.

17. Heath Shuler (1994-96)

Games: 19 | Record: 4-9 | TDs: 13 | INTs: 19 | Pass yards: 2,403

Washington selected him No. 3 overall in 1994 instead of Trent Dilfer (No. 6 overall) because of his mobility, even though it had Dilfer rated higher. Shuler’s new teammates were not impressed.

Said Mitchell: “We played a game in Kansas City [in 1995] and we called a waggle pass. He called it the wrong way and it got f—ed up in the backfield. I was asked by a coach why I didn’t help him out and I said, ‘If you want to pay me quarterback money, I’ll call plays and play quarterback.'”

After the 1996 season, the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints called about a trade. The Packers were coached by Mike Holmgren, and Washington’s front office told Shuler it would be a better fit; he could learn and rebuild his game. Shuler wanted to play immediately and chose the Saints and coach Mike Ditka. He started nine games, suffered a serious foot injury and never played again.

Keim’s take: I would have ranked him No. 15, but this ranking by ESPN Analytics probably better reflects his performance. However, he should never be ahead of Smith.

Kiper’s take on Shuler (1994 first-round draft pick, No. 3 overall): Second-guessing the Heath pick? You can’t do it now. I got it wrong. I had no problem with Washington taking him at that point. If I was the Colts [at No. 5], I would have taken Trent Dilfer. Trent turned out to be a lot better than Heath, but I don’t think you can question that pick.

16. Case Keenum (2019)

Games: 10 | Record: 1-7 | TDs: 11 | INTs: 5 | Pass yards: 1,707

15. Tony Banks (2001)

Games: 15 | Record: 8-6 | TDs: 10 | INTs: 10 | Pass yards: 2,386

Keim’s take: Like Allen, he was better than several players ranked above him here, which is why I would have ranked him ninth.

14. Jeff George (2000-01)

Games: 8 | Record: 1-6 | TDs: 7 | INTs: 9 | Pass yards: 1,557

Washington signed George despite a stellar 1999 season by Brad Johnson. George’s name had come up the previous offseason, but one source said it was a unanimous “no.” The only change in 2000 was the new owner, Dan Snyder; George was signed. In 2000, coach Norv Turner resisted pressure to play George until Johnson was hurt.

13. Rex Grossman (2010-12)

Games: 17 | Record: 6-10 | TDs: 23 | INTs: 24 | Pass yards: 4,035

After being benched in 2011, Grossman tried to limit risky throws. But he said he told himself, in essence, this is just who I am, so the “gutsy” throws returned.

“I really enjoyed Rex, but he could keep both teams in the game,” Mike Shanahan said. “He could win a game; he also could lose a game.”

Keim’s take: Anywhere from No. 10 to No. 13 is good for Grossman.

12. Mark Brunell (2004-06)*

Games: 37 | Record: 16-19 | TDs: 38 | INTs: 20 | Pass yards: 6,033

Washington traded a third-round pick for the 33-year-old Brunell in coach Joe Gibbs’ first season back. Brunell wasn’t flashy, but in 2005 he helped lead the team to a playoff berth — and its last postseason win. A highlight: two touchdown passes in the final four minutes to Moss in a 14-13 Monday night win in Dallas.

“I liked Mark Brunell,” Moss said. “He had that veteran sense; he knew how to win.”

Keim’s take: No. I would have ranked him at least No. 6, and I could be persuaded into putting him one or two spots higher. Strong leader, overcame an inefficient scheme.

11. John Friesz (1994)

Games: 16 | Record: 1-3 | TDs: 10 | INTs: 9 | Pass yards: 1,266

He served as the bridge QB to Shuler and Frerotte. It took four games to cross that bridge, and Friesz never started again in Washington, though he did play six more NFL seasons.

Keim’s take: No. 11 is a little high for Friesz, but only by perhaps three spots. He liked to push it down the field and averaged 7.0 yards per pass attempt.

10. Trent Green (1995-98)

Games: 16 | Record: 6-8 | TDs: 23 | INTs: 11 | Pass yards: 3,441

Green, cut in the CFL in 1994, finally got his chance in 1998 and won six of his last nine starts. But he was a free agent and, because Washington’s franchise was for sale, the trustees would not let the team give signing bonuses.

Finally, on the eve of free agency, Washington received permission to make an offer. Too late; Green had already agreed to a deal with St. Louis.

Keim’s take: I would have moved him five spots higher and would be OK with him anywhere in the top eight, but he shouldn’t be behind the five quarterbacks immediately ahead of him on this list. Never.

9. Todd Collins (2006-09)*

Games: 9 | Record: 3-1 | TDs: 5 | INTs: 0 | Pass yards: 1,032

Keim’s take: I would have pushed him a few spots lower, but you can’t understate the impact he had during that late stretch run.

8. Patrick Ramsey (2002-05)

Games: 33 | Record: 10-14 | TDs: 34 | INTs: 29 | Pass yards: 5,649

Keim’s take: He should not be in the top 10, but somewhere around No. 12 makes more sense.

Kiper’s take on Ramsey (2002 first-round draft pick, No. 32 overall): His biggest issue was he didn’t have mobility. He was like a 4.99, 5.0-flat guy [in the 40-yard dash]. He was a decent athlete, but that puts a lot of pressure on the [offensive] line. … Tough, smart kid, and in the right system I thought he could flourish.”

7. Colt McCoy (2014-19)

Games: 12 | Record: 1-6 | TDs: 8 | INTs: 7 | Pass yards: 1,679

Keim’s take: McCoy is a smart player but was hurt too often and didn’t win when he played, so No. 7 is way too high. He belongs somewhere in the middle at best, and others would argue lower.

6. Donovan McNabb (2010)

Games: 13 | Record: 5-8 | TDs: 14 | INTs: 15 | Pass yards: 3,377

The coaches wanted Marc Bulger but ended up with McNabb after an Easter Sunday trade in 2010. It did not work out.

Keim’s take: I would have ranked him No. 11, but I get it: McNabb averaged 7.2 yards per attempt, which was better than Brunell (6.3) and Smith (6.5) in Washington.

5. Jason Campbell (2005-09)

Games: 52 | Record: 20-32 | TDs: 55 | INTs: 38 | Pass yards: 10,860

He was drafted No. 25 overall in the 2005, one pick after Aaron Rodgers, to throw deep balls on play-action passes under Gibbs. They liked Campbell more than Rodgers, but a year later Gibbs hired Saunders, who did not run the same system. In Washington, Campbell played for two head coaches and three offensive coordinators after having four offensive coordinators at Auburn.

Keim’s take: Too high; he’s more in the No. 8-9 range. Others were more effective — namely Brunell and Smith — but few were hurt more than Campbell by the constant changing of coaches and coordinators.

4. Gus Frerotte (1994-98)

Games: 52 | Record: 19-26-1 | TDs: 48 | INTs: 44 | Pass yards: 9,769

Keim’s take: I would have slotted him seventh, but spots No. 4 to No. 7 were difficult to rank because each offered something of value. Others on the list had more impact on winning games.

3. Robert Griffin III (2012-15)*

Games: 38 | Record: 14-22 | TDs: 40 | INTs: 23 | Pass yards: 8,097

Keim’s take: It is hard to top the impact of his rookie season, which is why I would have slotted him in this same spot. Based on his next three years, he would be far lower on the list.

Kiper’s take on Griffin (2012 first-round draft pick, No. 2 overall): Some people liked RG3 better than [No. 1 overall pick in 2012] Andrew Luck. [Longtime NFL coach] Tony Dungy went on record as liking RG3 better. I gave Luck a 9.8 grade; I gave RG3 a 9.4 grade. Nobody could argue with [Washington] taking RG3 in that draft. Early on, he looked like he was going to be phenomenal. … That injury was a big thing. As a rookie he looked like he was going to be better than Luck.

2. Brad Johnson (1999-2000)*

Games: 30 | Record: 18-11 | TDs: 35 | INTs: 28 | Pass yards: 6,510

After Washington couldn’t re-sign Green, it traded for Johnson, who threw for 4,005 yards and 24 touchdowns and was the NFL’s fifth-ranked passer on the NFL’s second-ranked offense in 1999. Washington won the NFC East, but Snyder signed George in the offseason.

That was the beginning of the end for Johnson, who after multiple meetings with Snyder knew his days were numbered. Schottenheimer asked him to stay because Johnson was a good fit, but the damage was done. Johnson went to the Buccaneers, leading them to victory in Super Bowl XXXVII after the 2002 season.

“[Washington] was one place I would have wanted to stay,” said Johnson, who played for four teams, including two stints with the Minnesota Vikings. “I always told my wife and my close friends that I wish it would have worked out in Washington.”

Said Mitchell: “I would say Dan [Snyder] regrets that move, letting Brad leave, more than anything in the world. Brad was a real quarterback. He wasn’t sexy, but he was intellectual.”

Keim’s take: He would be tops on my list. The biggest issue was that he played only two years and was hurt for one of them.

1. Kirk Cousins (2012-17)*

Games: 64 | Record: 26-31-1 | TDs: 99 | INTs: 55 | Pass yards: 16,206

Coaches always liked Cousins’ ability and knowledge, and in 2015 it became obvious he should start. That season he threw for 4,166 yards, 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

“[Before] if something bad happened he’d hang his head, but once he started having confidence that’s when he flourished,” Gruden said.

But to keep Cousins, Washington needed to use the franchise tag in consecutive years. Once the team applied the first one, Cousins’ side knew he would never sign a long-term deal because his price would be too high. The sides never came close to a deal.

Keim’s take: I understand why the analytics put him this high, but I would rank him second. If you had to win one game and were choosing between Cousins and Brad Johnson, I would take the latter.

ATLANTA

QB MATT RYAN’s dismal record against QB TOM BRADY, at least in terms of wins and losses, is not eating at his soul – he says. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has played six games in his career against teams quarterbacked by Tom Brady. And Ryan’s Falcons are 0-6 in those games.

The losses include the Falcons getting swept by the Buccaneers last year, and four Falcons losses to the Patriots. Most famously, Ryan’s Falcons blew a 28-3 lead and ended up losing 34-28 in Super Bowl LI.

But as Ryan prepares to face Brady’s Buccaneers on Sunday, he says it’s not about him and Brady and that the past remains in the past.

“Of course we want to win. It’s not going to make up for that,” Ryan said, via ESPN. “You know, it’s one of those things. It’s part of your past, it’s part of what happened. But it’s got no bearing on this week.”

Ryan said he knows a team with Tom Brady will always be a formidable opponent, but his focus is on the Buccaneers’ defense.

“Regardless of how games shake out, he’s mentally tough and does a great job of staying in the present and operating at a high level,” Ryan said. “So you know you have to be at the same level on your side. But it’s about their defense. The defense they are playing with creates a lot of issues for us and we’ve got to find ways to attack it.”

The Buccaneers are 12.5-point favorites on Sunday, meaning the Falcons are highly likely to drop to 0-7 in Ryan’s starts against Brady’s teams.

In those six games, Ryan has thrown 10 TD passes with 1 INT (and a big fumble lost in the Super Bowl).  The last 3 times he has gone up against Brady, his teams have scored 28, 27 and 27 points and failed to win.

KANSAS CITY

Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com notes a disturbing trend for Chiefs fans who like to wager on their favorite team:

We think of the Kansas City Chiefs as a juggernaut, and they are. Just not to bettors since the middle of last season.

Since Nov. 1 of last year, the Chiefs have covered the spread once in 12 games. Their 1-10-1 record against the spread has cost bettors a lot of money.

Week 1 continued the trend of the Chiefs winning but not by much. The Cleveland Browns went out to a 14-0 lead. The Chiefs rallied to win, 33-29, but failed to cover the 5.5-point spread. It has been strange: The Chiefs have been great, going 17-2 in Mahomes’ last 19 starts, but almost never winning by more than a touchdown.

Whatever the reason for the Chiefs’ ATS slump, it has become more difficult to bet one of the NFL’s best teams. They are 3.5-point favorites vs. the Baltimore Ravens at BetMGM in the marquee Week 2 game.

The Ravens have some issues. They allowed almost 500 yards against the Las Vegas Raiders last week and allowed Las Vegas to put together multiple key drives late with the game on the line. The Ravens’ injuries are substantial. They also have a short week after an overtime loss on Monday night.

As long as the spread remains over a field goal, the Ravens are the pick. Baltimore has been a great team for years, Lamar Jackson mostly played well in the opener (two fumbles were bad but that hasn’t been a big issue for him through his career) and they’ll be back at home with their backs against the wall. Having talked through the game with Scott Pianowski on our weekly look at the NFL lines, I agree with him that the line isn’t giving enough respect to the Ravens. Or maybe too much to this Chiefs team that rarely covers a spread anymore.

LAS VEGAS

After one play for QB MARCUS MARIOTA on Monday, the Raiders went from having a quality backup to having QB NATHAN PETERMAN as next up.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Raiders had hoped to incorporate backup quarterback Marcus Mariota regularly in their offense this season. That lasted all of one play.

Mariota played one snap on Monday night and ran for 31 yards, but he aggravated a quadriceps injury and now will miss multiple weeks, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network.

The Raiders failed to provide an in-game injury update on Mariota, as NFL teams are supposed to do. They could be fined by the league for that.

While Mariota is out, Nathan Peterman will be promoted to the No. 2 quarterback, and Derek Carr will be expected to take all the snaps.

BALTIMORE

The Ravens hope RB DAVONTA FREEMAN can capture the form that made him a star with the Falcons a few years ago.  Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com:

The Baltimore Ravens have promoted running back Devonta Freeman to the active roster Thursday after he spent one week on the team’s practice squad, the team announced.

Freeman, 29, joins Ty’Son Williams and Latavius Murray in Baltimore’s revamped running backs group. The Ravens signed Freeman to the practice squad Friday, one day after Gus Edwards suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice.

A two-time Pro Bowl player, Freeman was cut by the New Orleans Saints on Aug. 31 after spending a month with the team. Last season, Freeman gained 172 yards rushing and scored one touchdown in five games with the New York Giants.

The Ravens now have two backs, Latavius Murray and Freeman, who were cut by the Saints in favor of Tony Jones, Jr. and Dwayne Washington as backups to RB ALVIN KAMARA.

HOUSTON

When thinking of QB TYROD TAYLOR, we remembered Buffalo and the Chargers.  Nick Shook of ESPN.com reminds us that going to Cleveland is also a return:

Tyrod Taylor arrived in Cleveland in 2018 as the Browns’ bridge quarterback. He returns as one with a chance for a little sweet revenge, even if he won’t quite admit it.

Taylor is returning to Cleveland for the first time since his 2019 departure this weekend, and he’ll again take the field at FirstEnergy Stadium as a starting quarterback. This time, it’s as a member of the Houston Texans, who scored a surprising blowout Week 1 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game in which Taylor shined. Taylor completed 21 of 33 passes for 291 yards, two touchdowns and a passer rating of 112.1 — his best rating in a start since the 2017 season.

The conversation this week was, of course, about his time in Cleveland, back when they were the same old Browns. He’s also not the only Texan who has spent time with the Browns in recent seasons, making the return trip to Cleveland with teammates Terrance Mitchell, Christian Kirksey and Lyndhurst, Ohio, native Pharaoh Brown.

“I mean, any time you get a chance to play against your former team, it’s definitely an opportunity for you to showcase how you’ve progressed as a player,” Taylor said. “Obviously, those guys spent more time in Cleveland than I did. I was there for a year and started for three games, got hurt in the third one. Everybody’s story is different.”

“Am I excited to go back? Yes, I am. But it’s not about me, it’s about our team here and us working hard throughout this week and us executing on Sunday. It’s never about me or my feelings when it comes going to play against previous teams. Yes, that is part of it, but I’m not going to make a big deal about it. It’s about me executing at a high level this weekend as well as everyone else in the locker room.”

At the time of Taylor’s arrival in Cleveland, the bridge he was supposed to create seemed to be a bridge to nowhere for the Browns, who were coming off an 0-16 season and still appeared to be many miles from legitimate playoff contention. Taylor had become a bit of a journeyman signal-caller, though, and this was a chance to earn a job for a year or two while playing in front of first-overall pick Baker Mayfield. It was also a chance to audition for another starting job elsewhere in the future, as everyone knew it was only a matter of time before Mayfield took over.

The entirety of Taylor’s time in Cleveland lasted just three games. A concussion suffered on Thursday Night Football prompted Hue Jackson to insert Mayfield into the game, and the rest is history. Mayfield led the Browns to a comeback win over Sam Darnold and the Jets, Cleveland’s first triumph in over a year, and the city fell in love with No. 6.

The lasting memory of Taylor in Cleveland is a tie, a loss, an early primetime exit and an intense internet debate about the proper pronunciation of his first name.

“I mean, obviously, it didn’t end the way that I wanted it to end,” Taylor said of his lone season in Cleveland. “But I think I grew as a person during that year, dealing with adversity, also becoming more of a vocal leader than I had before up until that time. Their team that we had in Cleveland in ’18 was fairly young, so you had to find different ways to lead. Of course, at the time, I want to say I was 28, I think I was like the third oldest on the team. Guys looked at me as the oldest guy, or one of the older players. More vocal at times. It’s tough to remember or it’s tough to take away from that year, but more important, I think it was more on the personal side than it was actually football.”

The DB admits to rooting for Taylor and TEDDY BRIDGEWATER, two guys who have persevered through multiple teams, but now may be ready to seize the moment.

THIS AND THAT

FATHER TIME ON THE MARCH

Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com sees the inevitable beginning to happen to three veteran QBs not named Brady:

It’s been said before, time and time again, that football is a young man’s game. And for every Tom Brady, one could list hundreds of prominent quarterbacks whose play steadily waned, if not outright fell apart, as they approached age 40.

Father Time. Sickle. Undefeated. (Except for TB 12.)

We’ve seen it in recent years with numerous quarterbacks who entered the league in the early-to-mid 2000s: Eli Manning slip sliding away, and the Giants getting it right the first time when they benched him; Peyton Manning going from setting records to losing his job to Brock Osweiler; Drew Brees no longer pushing the ball downfield; Philip Rivers opting to coach high school ball rather than see how tepid a market formed for his services; and Joe Flacco enduring injury-after-injury and holding on as a backup.

And though we are just one week into this, the longest season in NFL history, there are no shortage of troubling signs for the nearly 40-year-old set. Alas, it was not pretty for Aaron Rodgers (37), Ben Roethlisberger (39) and Matt Ryan (36), and one cannot help but wonder how things will play out with 16 games yet to play. More than ample time to reverse the trend — though for Big Ben and Ryan, the downward spiral began well before Sunday — and even Rodgers, coming off an MVP season, gave off troubling signs and triggered no shortage of chatter in front offices around the league about how this Last Dance season might play out for him in Green Bay and what his future holds.

Aaron Rodgers

GB • QB • 12

Rodgers’ brutal outing against the Saints came with the fewest cautionary pretext on the field — he nearly lifted the Packers to the Super Bowl a few months ago — although there were suitcases of baggage in terms of off-field drama, infighting and PR warfare. Rodgers spoke candidly about all of this (too candidly for the Packers likings) and how close he came to retiring and how conflicted he was about playing for this outfit again and the litany of grievances he held/holds against the organization.

You don’t just wash all of that away during six weeks of training camp. You can’t just turn that dial off and immediately heal the scar he is carrying and the grudge he is holding for the way the Jordan Love draft selection was made and the fallout from it. That doesn’t just go away. And based off his performance Sunday, during which he seemed at times confused, dismayed, frustrated, aggravated and disengaged, you can forgive NFL scouts and executives who watched it live or on tape from jumping to some conclusions. Given the backdrop of the Summer of Scorn (sounds like a WWE pay-per-view) between him and Packers brass, and given how deliberate he can be, and given how ugly this offense looked at the end of the Mike McCarthy era, and how suspect the unit was for the three quarters-plus-one series he played before making way for Love while behind 38-3, is anyone surprised that people are talking?

“His head did not look like it was in the game to me,” said one exec who watched the game closely. “I’m not sure he was up for it, or into it once it started going poorly.”

Another said: “That was not the guy we saw last year. He looked old. Looked a little brittle. You have to be concerned.”

Another called me on Monday, asking what others were saying about the situation and offering the following: “Didn’t look like he wanted to be there. Do you think they trade him if this keeps up for another couple of weeks?”

One game and all … but it really was that bad. The looks shot at the sidelines. The gesticulating with his hands. The body language on the bench. The game film itself and the boxscore itself (15-for-28 passing for 133 yards, two picks and no scores) all told a sordid tale coming on the heels of his offseason-long feud. Hosting the lowly Detroit Lions in primetime, with extra rest on a Monday night, should be just the homecoming game this group badly needs; and it better be. Rodgers attributed one interception to a shot to the groin and opined about the team’s lack of energy on his buddy Pat McAfee’s show the other day; one can’t help but wonder what else he will utter should this perennial playoff team slump into October.

Matt Ryan

ATL • QB • 2

Ryan looked equally stupefied by the Eagles on Sunday. His lack of mobility and the inability to build the kind of elite offensive line he needs continue to be problems, and rookie head coach Arthur Smith seemed overwhelmed at times (not constructing a red zone package around massive rookie tight end Kyle Pitts?). Being an offense-in-transition does Ryan no favors at this stage of his career.

Ryan’s days of being able to carry a team seem long ago, this roster is in tatters, and the decision not to move on from the aging quarterback while picking so high in draft loaded with QB talent threatens to haunt this franchise for years. We know they aren’t all that effective running the ball, and we know Ryan is vulnerable to sacks and that ball has best come out very quickly behind this line. Mustering two field goals and 164 passing yards in a home opener on a staggering 4.7(!) yards per attempt will naturally beg questions, especially given the Falcons’ recent history of uninspired and uncreative starts to the season.

Waking up in November ain’t going to cut it this year, new coach or not. Sure, they have some dynamic pass catchers, but will they be able to get the ball to them as needed and enough to offset the continued liability of this defense? Not promising.

Ben Roethlisberger

PIT • QB • 7

Roethlisberger became the poster boy for the aging QB set last year, as he and the Steelers rode into November as the league’s last undefeated team. Then the offense completely fell apart and they stumbled into the playoffs and got trounced by the Browns at home in the wild card round. Living in a shotgun empty set and throwing three-yard medicine balls to JuJu Smith-Schuster is no way to go through the winter. Against the Bills, many problems persisted.

Huge win for Pittsburgh at Buffalo, but this was all about the Steelers defense and special teams. A blocked punt was the biggest play in the game, and at halftime the team’s drive chart read: punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, end of half. They amassed 53 net yards in the first half against a Bills defense still with much to prove and scored one offensive touchdown in the game (on a drive that started at midfield). They lost the time of possession battle by more than five minutes, the run game remains a major work in progress and the offensive line offers more questions than answers right now.

For all of that chatter of a rebirth, the scope of the passing game remained quite constricted (5.9 yards per attempt), and their longest play of the day (at a mere 25 yards) was a run by receiver Chase Claypool. A learning curve of some degree was expected, with new coordinator Matt Canada (QB coach in 2020) at the helm, and, sure, they were on the road, but I can assure you there are skeptics abound as to how markedly better things will go from a year ago.

“The guy I saw on Sunday (Roethlisberger) was the guy I saw in January,” said one exec who reviewed the game.

Time, indeed, keeps ticking on, and turning back the clock is anything but easy in this sport, especially at this position despite whatever Brady continues to accomplish. This is far more the norm, and even Rodgers may fall prey.

4^th DOWN

A punt on 4^th down is less automatic than it used to be.  Henry Bushnell at YahooSports.com looks at decisions, both bold and dubious, from Week 1:

The Analytics Hero of the NFL’s opening week very easily could have been a goat. Late in the third quarter on an afternoon full of hope in Cincinnati, the Bengals faced a fourth-and-1 from their 30-yard line, leading 21-7. And Zac Taylor, their 38-year-old head coach, faced a decision that 10 years ago would have been a no-brainer. Any rational coach would have punted. No sensible fan or pundit would have questioned him.

But Taylor coaches in the 2021 NFL, a league that is, slowly but surely, being remodeled by nerds. So he didn’t punt. He went for it. The decision, on top of being “gutsy” and “ballsy,” as his players said, was mathematically sound. This time it backfired, but it mirrored similar decisions that led the Bengals to victory. And it was emblematic of a changing league.

NFL teams went for fourth-down conversions 51 times this past weekend, the highest single-week total in modern league history, up from 37 in Week 1 last year, 26 in 2019 and 22 in 2018. That year, in Week 1, teams went for it on fourth down eight times prior to the fourth quarter. Just three years later, that number ballooned to 33.

And while circumstantial factors could explain some of the uptick, advanced statistical models show a significant trend. EdjSports, a data analytics company that works with NFL teams, studies fourth-down decision making and the effect that each choice has on a team’s win probability. It analyzed every relevant and non-obvious fourth-down decision from Week 1 this year and last. It found that, cumulatively, suboptimal decisions on last season’s opening weekend cost teams a cumulative 170 percentage points of win probability.

This past weekend, that cumulative cost was 104 percentage points — almost equal to the win probability gained from fourth-down aggressiveness.

In situations where another model viewed the go-or-kick decision as a “toss-up,” offenses stayed on the field 30% of the time, up from 14% last year.

Analytics have long suggested that NFL coaches, a notoriously risk-averse species, should take more risks on fourth down. Gradually, as PhDs infiltrated football departments, coaches began to listen. The opening week of the 2021 season presented the clearest evidence yet that the nerds’ recommendations are taking hold — and, in some cases, helping win games.

Reward outweighs the risk

Fourth-down aggressiveness doesn’t always snatch headlines. When it does, the headlines often highlight decisive plays or failure. But the best examples are usually buried deeper in games, and they were plentiful this past weekend. Sean Payton’s Saints, for example, went on fourth down twice on the same first-half drive. Math supported both choices. Jameis Winston converted twice, the second time for a touchdown that accelerated New Orleans’ beatdown of Green Bay.

In New York, meanwhile, Vic Fangio’s Broncos converted on fourth-and-7 in the first quarter, drove for a chip-shot field goal, and never looked back.

In Vegas and Kansas City, the Ravens and Browns both jumped out to early leads thanks to analytically savvy decisions. Kevin Stefanski’s Browns passed up field goals on each of their first two drives, converted on fourth-and-3 and fourth-and-1, turned six points into 15, and very nearly upset the Chiefs.

The optimal decision, of course, does not always produce optimal results, and Bengals fans very nearly re-learned that the hard way. Taylor’s choice to go on fourth down from his own 30 increased the Bengals’ win probability by nearly 2 percentage points, according to EdjSports. Their subsequent turnover on downs, obviously, did not. Less than a minute later, the Vikings scored and halved the lead. Eventually, they sent the game to overtime.

Taylor didn’t regret his choice. “I don’t take back any decisions,” he later said. This was the correct one, just like his earlier decision to go on fourth-and-1 in field-goal range. Joe Burrow got that first down, and three plays later, Joe Mixon scored a touchdown.

So Taylor wasn’t fazed when, in overtime, his offense faced yet another fourth-and-1 in their own territory. Mathematical models said it was a “DEFINITE GO.” The Bengals indeed went, and because they did, they won.

The moral of the story is not that aggressiveness guarantees success. Several teams — the Panthers, Jets, Bills, Colts, Bears, Ravens and Raiders — made sound fourth-down decisions and came up short. The statistically supported lesson, instead, is that sound processes yield positive results more often than not. And coaches, finally, seem to be taking that to heart.

The worst coaching decision of Week 1

They still, however, have a long way to go. From Week 1 alone, EdjSports unearthed 75 fourth-down decisions that it characterized as “suboptimal.” Many of the 75, in reality, were toss-ups; the difference between kicking and going for it was, in some cases, fractions of a percentage point in win probability. Major errors were far more scarce than in Week 1 of last year, and perhaps more scarce than ever before.

Still, the cumulative cost of those 75 decisions was significant. And the vast majority of the mistakes were conservative ones.

Perhaps the most notable was one that very few seasoned football watchers questioned. On Thursday night, Dak Prescott expertly engineered a late-fourth-quarter drive, and set up Greg Zuerlein for what many assumed would be a game-winning field goal. But on fourth-and-6 from the Tampa Bay 30, with 1:29 remaining, down two points, EdjSports’ model and betting markets alike recommended that the Cowboys keep their offense on the field. Their reasoning, in short, was the likelihood of what ultimately played out.

EdjSports founder Frank Frigo explained in more detail. Even after Zuerlein drilled a 48-yarder — which, of course, was no sure thing — the Cowboys were still more likely to lose the game than win it. Tom Brady with the ball, a timeout, a one-point deficit and 1:24 on the clock was still the betting favorite. By going for it, the Cowboys could have taken the game out of Brady’s hands. A conversion could have made Zuerlein’s field-goal attempt easier and decisive.

EdjSports’ model calculated all of this in real time. Retrospectively, it dubbed head coach Mike McCarthy’s choice to kick the worst coaching decision of Week 1.

There were other maddening ones, too. The Panthers punted from the Jets’ 33-yard line. The Falcons kicked on fourth-and-goal from the 3, and, 55 minutes later, realized it was one of their best and only shots at a touchdown. They finished the game with six points in a blowout loss to the Eagles.

Perhaps the most dangerous decision was Bears head coach Matt Nagy opting to punt on fourth-and-2 with his team in Rams territory. Because it reeked of recency bias, or an inversion of the “gambler’s fallacy.”

The Bears had tried, correctly, to convert two fourth downs in the first quarter of their season opener. They’d failed, and Nagy seemingly let those failures cloud his consideration of the third situation, which models indicated was a clear “go.” That cognitive bias is the only thing that could halt this rising tide of aggressiveness across the NFL.

Coaches have, for decades, made detrimental decisions on fourth down because they were afraid to fail. Whereas successful fourth-down conversions are often attributed to the players who executed them, failures are pinned on coaches and weigh them down.

The worry, then, is that coaches could regress as the season wears on, and that’s why experts will wait, patiently, for the sample size to grow before dubbing 2021 a fourth-down breakthrough. But past seasons suggest that aggressiveness will not wane as the season progresses. And the mathematicians behind the trend certainly won’t recommend fewer risks. They’ll recommend more.