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RANKING THE 0-2 TEAMS
A shortened version of a Bill Barnwell deep dive. The whole thing is here
The idea of an NFL game being must-win in Week 3 seems silly, but that’s only true for 21 of the league’s 32 teams. The other 11 teams started 0-2, which leaves them in an incredibly vulnerable position heading into the third week of the campaign. You never want to suggest that a team’s season can be over after three games, but recent history tells us that the idea isn’t far off.
Since the league changed to its eight-division, 32-team format in 2002, 80 teams have started 0-3. Under the 12-team playoff system that was in place until last season, just one of those 80 teams made it to the playoffs. We’ll talk about them a little later. If we go back through those past 18 seasons and identify the 0-3 teams that would have made it to the playoffs under the current 14-team format, we can add one other team — the 2013 Steelers — to that list. (Actually, under the current rules, the Pittsburgh teams that missed the playoffs in 2012, 2013, 2018 and 2019 all would have made it to the playoffs, giving Mike Tomlin a run of 10 consecutive postseason berths.)
Two out of 80 implies that teams that go 0-3 have a 2.5% chance of making it to the playoffs. Teams that start 0-2 over that time frame would have made it to a 14-team playoff 13.4% of the time, so hope is not yet lost for these teams. With one more loss over the next five days, though, their chances of competing into January will all but run out.
Let’s run through the 11 teams that have started 0-2 and take a closer look into what has happened over the first two weeks of the season, using the playoff projections from the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). My list won’t match FPI’s chances exactly, but I’ll rank them from the team least likely to make a run from 0-2 into the postseason to the team most likely to overcome its slow start.
If there’s a reason to think their performance is likely to improve in the months to come, I’ll mention it. The list starts with a team whose coach has promised to take things to an unprecedented new level after a dismal opening:
11. New York Jets
Preseason playoff chances: 22.3%
Current playoff chances: 3.4%
I’d like to find some bright spots for the Jets in their 0-2 start. Let’s see …
They are the kings of garbage time. The Jets have been outscored 58-16 across the first 58 minutes of their two games, but when they get into the final two minutes, coach Adam Gase puts things into hyperdrive. They have scored two touchdowns in the final two minutes against the Bills and 49ers, so if they can ever keep the first 58 minutes of the game close, Sam Darnold & Co. should be able to close out the rest.
No, that’s not it. What about the advanced metrics? DVOA thinks the Jets are the 11th-best defense in the league through two weeks, but this is the rare case in which even my favorite statistic is fooled. DVOA adjusts per team, but it doesn’t know that the Jets spent 25% of their season going up against 49ers backup quarterback Nick Mullens. They were great against Mullens, who posted a passer rating of 51.7, but they allowed Josh Allen and Jimmy Garoppolo to shred coordinator Gregg Williams’ group through the air. DVOA doesn’t know Allen whiffed on two open receivers in the end zone for scores, a fact that matters more after two games than it does after 16.
Becton’s emergence as a building block is great news for Darnold, who has seen injuries decimate what was already one of the league’s least-imposing group of playmakers. Darnold has faced two tough defenses, but he has shown little signs of improvement.
That’s a mistake young quarterbacks typically get out of their system early in their careers; it led to a pick against the Bills in Week 1 and will be a mistake more often than it is a spectacular success. Darnold is still young, of course, but it feels like he’ll need to stay young for six or seven years for the Jets to surround him with more players like Becton.
10. Denver Broncos
Preseason playoff chances: 32.6%
Current playoff chances: 9.4%
The Broncos bear little resemblance to the team we were expecting to see coming into the season. Three of their four highest-paid players aren’t on the active roster, with right tackle Ja’Wuan James opting out and both pass-rusher Von Miller and cornerback A.J. Bouye on injured reserve. They lost starting quarterback Drew Lock and star wide receiver Courtland Sutton to injuries in Week 2, with Lock out for several weeks and Sutton done for the season.
I would love to tell you that the bad news is done. It’s not. The Broncos still have the league’s third-toughest schedule over the remainder of the season.
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As an aside, is it wild that I like general manager John Elway’s decision to sign Blake Bortles this week? Bortles became a punch line by the end of his time in Jacksonville, and I was never a big supporter. But there’s a difference between a quarterback who doesn’t deserve the sort of hype he had in Jacksonville and a quarterback who doesn’t deserve a job. Bortles isn’t one of the 20 best quarterbacks in football, but he is one of the top 60.
9. Miami Dolphins
Preseason playoff chances: 13.6%
Current playoff chances: 3.4%
The Dolphins have emerged from their year of tanking and an offseason spending spree to find themselves … at 0-2 for the second consecutive season. Brian Flores’ team unquestionably looks better than it did after two games a year ago, but the idea that it was going to build off its late-season victory over the Patriots and immediately emerge as a playoff contender seems unfounded.
To be fair, several of the most important players for the Dolphins haven’t been on the field. Cornerback Byron Jones missed most of Week 2 with a groin injury. First-round pick Tua Tagovailoa has been active for the first two games of the season without making it onto the field. Wide receiver DeVante Parker, arguably the team’s best player a year ago, has played about two-thirds of the offensive snaps while battling a hamstring injury.
Really, though, the biggest problem for this team is the same issue it had a year ago: It just gets beat up at the line of scrimmage.
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My expectations for the Dolphins heading into the year were to finish somewhere around 5-11 again, and that’s fine. They’re a work in progress and still realistically in need of top-level talent on both sides of the ball. The most important thing for Flores’ team is finding the right moment to insert Tagovailoa into the lineup and keeping the quarterback of the future healthy when he gets there. A schedule that seemed stocked with devastating pass-rushers early in the season doesn’t seem quite as scary now that Nick Bosa and Von Miller are out for the year; but the Dolphins still have to face Joey Bosa, Aaron Donald and Chandler Jones before their Week 11 bye.
8. Cincinnati Bengals
Preseason playoff chances: 8.8%
Current playoff chances: 2.1%
The lowest playoff chances in the league after two weeks belong to the Bengals, who have lost two of the more winnable games on their schedule in matchups with the Chargers and Browns. They lost those two by a combined 8 points, but it took a touchdown inside the final minute against Cleveland to make the final score look closer.
The organization would happily trade its slight hint of a playoff berth in 2020 for some proof that Joe Burrow is the quarterback it was hoping for when it drafted the LSU product with the No. 1 pick in April. Burrow has flashed some promise through these first two games, but he also has fumbled three times.
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The Bengals are without free-agent addition Trae Waynes, and star defensive tackle Geno Atkins missed the first two games with a shoulder injury. Burrow will get better as the season goes along. There are reasons to be excited about what’s coming for this team. I just don’t think that’s going to lead to a playoff berth in 2020.
7. Detroit Lions
Preseason playoff chances: 21.2%
Current playoff chances: 4.3%
One of my teams most likely to improve on their record heading into 2020, the Lions have been wildly disappointing. After taking a closer look and seeing how awful they were in the fourth quarter of 2019, I found that similar teams historically improved dramatically the following season. The Lions promptly blew a 23-6 fourth-quarter lead against the Bears in Week 1 and nearly came back, only for rookie running back D’Andre Swift to drop a potential game-winning touchdown pass. They even went up 14-3 against the Packers in Week 2 before being outscored 39-7 the rest of the way — and even that came while Aaron Rodgers’ receivers struggled with drops.
Two games in is too early to give up on any prediction, but this team is a mess. Injuries have already ripped them apart. Wide receiver Kenny Golladay and free-agent addition Halapoulivaati Vaitai haven’t played yet. Third overall pick Jeff Okudah was out in Week 1, and while he returned to be torched by Rodgers on Sunday, the team’s other top two cornerbacks, Desmond Trufant and Justin Coleman, were out injured. Coach Matt Patricia has still continued to play man coverage 81.9% of the time, per ESPN’s coverage analysis, the highest rate of any team in football through two weeks.
The secondary is being overwhelmed, in part, because nobody is winning up front.
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The Lions are a drop away from starting 1-1, so they’re in better position than some of the other teams on this list. They should get better when they’re healthier. With the Cardinals and Saints coming up before their Week 5 bye, though, the Lions are at serious risk of starting their season 0-4. Detroit hasn’t fired a coach in midseason since they let Steve Mariucci go in 2005, but Patricia’s team needs to show signs of life — soon.
6. Carolina Panthers
Preseason playoff chances: 7.3%
Current playoff chances: 2.9%
Matt Rhule’s first season in a new place typically doesn’t go well. In 2013, he took over at Temple and went 2-10. Four years later, in his debut campaign at Baylor, his Bears went 1-11. Of course, he was inheriting difficult situations in both places, and his record after those first seasons is why the Panthers wanted to hire him as their coach, given that the former Giants assistant went a combined 44-22 in his five other seasons as a college head coach.
It might have been fair to expect Rhule’s Panthers, then, to also struggle in their first season. He has rebuilt the roster; 13 of the 24 players who have suited up for at least 50% of the offensive or defensive snaps were not on the roster a year ago, including three starting offensive linemen and five of the six players in the secondary. The team’s highest-paid player, defensive tackle Kawann Short, missed Week 2 with a foot injury. Christian McCaffrey is now out for an indefinite amount of time with a high ankle sprain. Carolina plays in a division in which the starting quarterbacks are 43, 41 and 35 years old.
If anything, it seems like a bit of a pleasant surprise that the Panthers have been able to keep things competitive in their first two games
5. New York Giants
Preseason playoff chances: 10.6%
Current playoff chances: 4.1%
The big story surrounding the Giants this week is the injury suffered by Saquon Barkley, which I wrote about on Monday. The move to sign Devonta Freeman to a one-year, $3 million deal seems unimaginative for a team that is committed to Barkley as its long-term back and could sorely use help at other positions, but that’s par for the course for these Giants.
Second-year quarterback Daniel Jones has actually played pretty well over the first two weeks given the problems along the offensive line and the strength of the defenses his team has faced. QBR disagrees, putting Jones right behind Sam Darnold in 28th place. The good news for Giants fans hoping for growth from Jones is that he has a brutal four-game stretch of pass rushes to start the season, but the 49ers, whom they face in Week 3, don’t seem quite as devastating as they did before last week’s rash of injuries. After a Week 4 tilt against the Rams, things get much easier for Jones. His numbers should rise accordingly.
As has been standard for general manager Dave Gettleman’s Giants teams, they continue to be dominated in the passing game at the line of scrimmage.
4. Minnesota Vikings
Preseason playoff chances: 51.3%
Current playoff chances: 16.8%
Several of the teams on this list probably knew, in their heart of hearts, that they were likely to end up starting 0-2. The Vikings did not. For the first time in the Mike Zimmer era, though, they’re 0-2, and they are underdogs at home on Sunday against the Titans. The only good news is that they’re fourth in rush offense DVOA through two weeks, although they haven’t been competitive enough in their first two games to turn that effectiveness into anything meaningful.
Kirk Cousins, who once threw interceptions at a historic rate, has four through two games after throwing six in 16 games a year ago. I’m not as concerned as that number suggests — one was a third-and-10 arm punt and another was a Hail Mary attempt — but his other numbers are down across the board, in many places by a dramatic margin. He has attempted eight play-action passes across two games after averaging nearly nine per game a year ago.- – –
More distressingly, the rebuild on defense has been a mess through two weeks. Each of Minnesota’s top four cornerbacks — Cameron Dantzler, Jeff Gladney, Holton Hill and Mike Hughes — has allowed a passer rating of 130.8 or higher in coverage.
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And without defensive end Danielle Hunter, Yannick Ngakoue and the rest of the defense have just two sacks and four knockdowns through two games. The Vikings’ defense got by in 2019 by forcing 31 takeaways, the league’s fourth-highest mark. Through two weeks, they have all of one turnover.
The Vikings have alternated double-digit win campaigns with seasons at or around .500 for the entirety of Zimmer’s tenure; it seems like they’re heading toward that destiny again in 2020.
3. Atlanta Falcons
Preseason playoff chances: 32.4%
Current playoff chances: 12.4%
What is there to say in a time like this? You saw what happened on Sunday against the Cowboys. I’m not going to give you a bunch of stats about how unlikely that loss was. Falcons fans don’t need that in their lives. Dallas fumbled away the ball three times (nearly four) in the first half, came up short on two fake punts, failed on their two-point conversion try down 15 — and still won. Let’s leave Week 2 at that.
The thing I find concerning about the Falcons, though, is that their offseason additions don’t look to have changed much of anything and/or aren’t living up to expectations. Running back Todd Gurley is averaging 3.3 yards per carry and has two catches for one yard. Pass-rusher Dante Fowler Jr. has one lone sack and knockdown. First-round pick A.J. Terrell has allowed a passer rating of 148.6 in coverage through two games. Darqueze Dennard was shook into orbit on the CeeDee Lamb catch that set up the game-winning field go. … OK, I promised we weren’t going to talk about that game again. My bad.
I’m concerned that the Falcons thought they had fixed their defense and instead got fooled by a half-season split.
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The good news for the Falcons is that the NFC South has gotten off to a slow start. No team is 2-0. Saints quarterback Drew Brees is disavowing any knowledge or appreciation of air yards. Bucs coach Bruce Arians is using the addition of two Hall of Fame players to strengthen his midweek straight-talk news conferences. Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey is out indefinitely. The South is still there for the taking, even after an 0-2 start.
Atlanta has a pair of 2-0 teams coming up in the Bears and Packers, but Chicago’s two games have come down to a drop in the end zone and a failed conversion on fourth down. After that, the Falcons have five straight games against 0-2 teams in the Vikings, Lions, Broncos and a pair against the Panthers before their Week 10 bye. As disgusted as they must be to sit here at 0-2, the Falcons have the sort of schedule that could allow them to turn it around quickly.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Preseason playoff chances: 63.5%
Current playoff chances: 10.1%
Of all the teams on this list, the Eagles might be the one whose fans thought they were least likely to begin the year 0-2. When the schedule was released and every fan went through it, marking off wins and losses for the upcoming season, you know there isn’t an Eagles fan on the planet who suggested that they would lose to Washington in Week 1. The matchup with the Rams in Week 2 was tougher, but Philadelphia was at home against a team traveling to the East Coast for an early Sunday kickoff, and the Eagles beat L.A. in 2017 and 2018.
Instead, the Eagles have been a disaster.
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The offense is dysfunctional, just in a different way. The injuries to the line cost the Eagles in their Week 1 loss to Washington, and while Lane Johnson returned in Week 2, they lost guard Isaac Seumalo just before halftime. It doesn’t seem like Wentz or Pederson trusted the line to hold up against Aaron Donald and the rest of the Rams’ defensive line for any deep shots, which reduces the value of the speed the Eagles added this offseason.
Wentz hasn’t made great decisions with the ball. He took the blame for a critical interception against the Rams, when the offense drove to the edge of the red zone trailing 21-16. On first-and-10, Wentz tried to squeeze a pass into a deep window in the end zone for JJ Arcega-Whiteside, only for corner Darious Williams to have time to catch up and make a leaping interception. The catch by Williams was spectacular. But it’s the sort of decision NFL quarterbacks can’t make on first-and-10 so close to the end zone in the third quarter.
Even when Wentz has made the right decisions, he is struggling. His completion percentage above expectation (CPOE) is minus-8.8%, the second-worst mark in football through two weeks behind Washington’s Dwayne Haskins.
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While he was the NFL’s luckiest quarterback last season when it came to dropped interceptions, Washington and Los Angeles haven’t been as generous. Wentz leads the league with four picks through two weeks, a concerning amount for a quarterback who had posted exactly seven interceptions in each of the past three seasons. I don’t think he is going to throw 32 picks by the end of the season, but veteran quarterbacks don’t make this throw, even in garbage time.
The idea that Wentz is just one player or one stretch away from his 2017 form has been faulty for years now.
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Roseman is creative and aggressive, and the Eagles do have approximately $19 million in cap room to work with, although they would probably like to roll that money over to next season’s cap. Bradham was cut by the Saints, and Jenkins hasn’t looked great in New Orleans to start the season; but Philadelphia didn’t do enough to replace its departed veterans, and the Rams ripped the Eagles to shreds in the process. I suspect the Eagles will have a better time against the Bengals in Week 3, but with road games against the 49ers and Steelers and a home tilt against the Ravens to follow, Philly is going to need to pull an upset — and avoid one on Sunday — to keep from starting 1-5.
1. Houston Texans
Preseason playoff chances: 35.7%
Current playoff chances: 15.2%
The story of why the Texans are 0-2 starts — and maybe ends — with their schedule. Deshaun Watson & Co. were booked to begin the year with about as brutal of a one-two punch as you can get, starting with the Super Bowl-winning Chiefs and the Ravens — the best team from the 2019 regular season. A win or two would have been great, but the Texans didn’t need to win either of these games to make it to the playoffs. They’ve faced the toughest schedule in football through two weeks and, per FPI, have the league’s third-easiest slate the rest of the way.
And while the Texans lost the two games by a combined 31 points, I can see the logic in their game plans on defense. Against the Chiefs, coordinator Anthony Weaver’s defense played to take away the big play and dared rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire to beat them in his first career game. He did. Against the Ravens in Week 2, the Texans tried to get the ball out of Lamar Jackson’s hands, and they slowed down the reigning MVP, who had 204 yards passing and ran 16 times for just 54 yards. Baltimore’s three running backs, unfortunately for Houston, ran the ball 21 times for 176 yards.
My concern with the Texans losing has to do with how coach and general manager Bill O’Brien has built this team over the past few years. Houston has repeatedly traded draft picks to acquire prime talent, with the DeAndre Hopkins trade as the lone counterbalance.
Watson is 25 and will hopefully be the Texans’ quarterback for many years to come, but he was on a rookie deal when O’Brien started shipping off picks in 2019 and will still have a cap hit below $16 million in each of the next two seasons. It’s not until 2022, when Watson’s cap hold rises to $40.4 million, that the star quarterback’s deal becomes prohibitively expensive. Houston seems to be building a roster that peaks around Watson over this 2019-21 window.
There’s nothing inherently wrong with that, but to get to the Super Bowl, O’Brien’s team has to get out of the AFC. To get out of the AFC, it is probably going to have to beat the Ravens, the Chiefs or both in the postseason. And while it’s true that a team can lose to a rival in the regular season and then beat them in the postseason, as the Chiefs did with the Texans a year ago, the Texans just played their two most significant rivals with a healthy roster and didn’t look to be on the level of either. O’Brien didn’t need to go all-in to win the AFC South and lose in the first two rounds of the playoffs, so his team needs to find a way to do something more against the best teams in football when it gets its chance.
The bad news for the Texans is that they have to travel to Pittsburgh on Sunday to face the Steelers, who are off to a 2-0 start and look every bit as fearsome on defense as they did a year ago. An 0-2 start is surmountable, but 0-3 is tougher. Do you remember that 0-3 playoff team I mentioned in the introduction? The good news for O’Brien, I suppose, is that the team I was referring to was the 2018 Texans. That Houston team started 0-3 and went 11-2 the rest of the way. I’m not sure these Texans have that in them, but across these 11 organizations, they have the best shot of sneaking back into the playoff picture.
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