The Daily Briefing Thursday, September 24, 2026

AROUND THE NFL

An interesting point from Todd Furman: @ToddFuhrmanThe friendly reminder the NFL is a week to week league The 4 teams that lost by 20+ points Week 1 all won & covered Week 2 CLE lost by 24 to JAX;  Beat TB by 4CAR lost by 22 to the CHI;  Beat ATL by 31DEN lost by 21 to KC; beat JAX by 7LAR lost by 20 to SF; beat NYG by 22

NFC NORTH

GREEN BAYWill they turn it around tonight? @QBgamiHowever bad you think the #Packers have been thru Week 2, it’s been worse: – O-line (ranked 32 of 32)– Rush YDs (32 of 32)– 3D Conv% (32 of 32)– Cmp% (32 of 32)– Penalties (most in NFL)– Drops (most in NFL)– RT1 out for year– WR3 possibly out for year– RB1 on exempt list

NFC EAST

NEW YORK GIANTSThis: @ShaunMorashThe NFL is a cool kids party It feels like Giants fans were finally invited again, got black out drunk 30 minutes in, and got kicked out. Now we are back trading Pokémon cards At Applebees with Jets and Browns fans.– – -QB JAXSON DART could be back for “the playoffs” after his knee surgery.  Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com: – New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart will undergo surgery on his left knee and sit out the rest of the regular season, coach John Harbaugh said Wednesday. Harbaugh did not rule out the possibility that Dart could return if the Giants were to make the playoffs. “I think I said it. I said it. Regular season,” Harbaugh said of how long Dart would be out. “Other than that, how do you know? It depends on the recovery. You can’t pinpoint it.” The postseason begins in a little less than four months. It seems optimistic to expect Dart to return at any point this season. Dart’s ACL is intact, but the second-year star has damage to his meniscus and MCL that requires surgery, sources told NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport and ESPN’s Adam Schefter. He also has damage to his PCL, sources told Schefter. The Giants expect Dart, who suffered the injury to his left knee early in Monday’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams, to make a full recovery and be ready for the 2027 season, sources told Rapoport. Harbaugh declined to specify a date for Dart’s surgery, but a source told ESPN that it was expected to happen relatively soon. Dart was at the Giants’ facility Wednesday, attending meetings and hanging around the locker room. “I think he’s determined. He’s bummed. It’s hard,” Harbaugh said. “The season is not over, but it is for him. We kind of talked about that [in the team meeting], too. That was part of it. That was part of the deal. With injuries, there is a certain mourning that takes place. Had the same thing for Calvin [Austin]. Same thing over the years because you realize how hard it is for a player really. But it’s tough on the team. It’s tough on all of us.” The Giants are doing their best to support Dart. “Me and Jaxson have talked,” said veteran quarterback Jameis Winston, who will start in place of Dart beginning Sunday against the Tennessee Titans. “It’s pretty fresh, so I’m going to keep on lifting him up. He’s a warrior. He’s in good spirits. He’s, again, focusing on what he would love, and that’s healing. And all of us are going to just wrap our arms around him and lift him up. There’s not much that you can say in this moment, but it’s actions of what we do and how we support him in this time.” The Giants are also expected to be without standout outside linebacker Brian Burns against the Titans, a source told Schefter. Burns is likely to miss time because of a low ankle sprain suffered against the Rams, though the injury will not require surgery.

WASHINGTONKurt Warner says a dislocated left elbow doesn’t have to sideline a quarterback – he knows from personal experience.   Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com: Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner says Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels could play through the left elbow injury he suffered on Sunday. Warner, who now appears on ESPN, described suffering the same injury in 2007 and not missing a game. “I suffered the exact same injury back in ’07, and I played the next week,” Warner said. “I braced it up, obviously a couple shots along the way, I had to hand the football off with my right hand in both directions, but this to me is something, because it’s the left arm, if he wants to play through that, and get back out there and help his team, I believe he can. It’s not going to be one of those things that affects the throwing part of things. Does it affect his movement, does it affect his running or some of the things they want to do by design? Maybe, but I do believe this is something he can come back from. Because it’s the left arm, I don’t think it’s something we worry about long term and go, ‘Should we extend this guy, because he’s had this type of injury twice?’ I believe it’s something he can play through.” Warner said that as a player, his mentality would be to do everything he can to help his team win. “I can brace it up and go,” Warner said. “I don’t care about all that stuff. Let me go out there and play, I want to be out there with my guys as opposed to thinking about this a year or two down the road.” Warner suffered his left elbow injury in Week 6 of 2007 when he was sacked by Panthers defensive end Julius Peppers. Warner missed the rest of that game, and when the injury was initially diagnosed he was expected to miss more time, but instead he played in Week 7, wearing a large brace on his left elbow, and started every game for the Cardinals the rest of the season. Warner played well down the stretch and was named the starter in 2008 after starting 2007 as the backup to Matt Leinart, and in 2008 Warner led the Cardinals to the Super Bowl. What’s unknown is whether Warner is correct to call his injury “the exact same injury” that Daniels had. Daniels’ left elbow injury may be more severe, and it may not be feasible for him to play, even with a heavy brace on his left elbow. Warner displayed incredible toughness, but that doesn’t necessarily make it the right decision for Daniels. There is an explanation for the video that seemed to show Daniels being abandoned by his teammates at the time of his injury.  Mike Silver of The Athletic: As for the Commanders, the perceived issue isn’t whether Daniels cares — it’s how much his teammates care about their quarterback, who suffered a dislocated left elbow for the second time in 11 months. Seeing him seemingly abandoned on the field during Sunday’s defeat to the Dallas Cowboys provoked blowback from people such as CBS analyst Kyle Long, a former NFL offensive lineman. On Wednesday, Commanders coach Dan Quinn insisted that Daniels’ teammates wanted to stay and support him but were ushered off the field by officials and told that the tight halftime window would not be extended. Bad luck? Perhaps. Bad look? Definitely. Can you imagine, say, Mahomes’ teammates listening to officials and walking away from the three-time Super Bowl winner in a similar context? My gut says, “Child please.” That said, we’ll find out in due time if there’s any resentment toward Daniels in the Commanders’ locker room. In the meantime, optics be damned, we should give his teammates the benefit of the doubt.

NFC SOUTH

TAMPA BAYHall of Famer Rondé Barber speaks as to what ails the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are 0-2, capped by a 23-19 loss to the Browns in the Tampa Bay home opener. And the sluggish start is having an impact. Via JoeBucsFan.com, Hall of Famer Ronde Barber said this week that the vibe in the building is not ideal. “Look, the mood is not great,” Barber said on his WFLA show. ”There’s too many mistakes. There’s a lack of urgency, if you will, in my mind when I look at them going onto the field. There’s got to be a little bit of a sense of a defining characteristic of your team through Week 2. I don’t know what that is. It’s mistakes. It’s busts. It’s lack of execution.” Barber believes the Bucs simply weren’t ready for the games that count. “Week 2 can’t be the fifth preseason game,” Barber said. “At some point you have to start hitting your stride. And it doesn’t feel like they’re in their stride right now on either side of the ball.” “I feel like for much of the secondary, especially the coverage unit, they’re so focused on what they’re trying to do that they don’t know how to do it now.” Barber also singled out former Lions linebacker Alex Anzalone, who signed with the Bucs as a free agent. “There’s some dynamic going on, whether it’s not understanding what his role is in the defense, not understanding angles, maybe not having enough tackles in the preseason, I don’t know what it is,” Barber said. ”Something is hamstringing this defense in critical moments.” It puts even more pressure on the Buccaneers for Week 3, the second of three straight home games. The official attendance last week was 61,391 — nearly 8,000 below capacity. (Often, the actual attendance is lower than the reported number.) By the time the game was over, the fans who stuck it out through the lengthy weather delay weren’t happy. Those who show up for the next game will be even saltier if the Bucs slip to 0-3. That makes it a dangerous game for the Vikings, who have overachieved to get to 2-0. This is exactly the kind of game in which the team that has done better than expected can step into a pothole against a team that has done worse than expected.

NFC WEST

ARIZONAWR MARVIN HARRISON, Jr. defends his “process” despite it producing few results.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com: Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has only caught one pass through two games this season. But he doesn’t think he needs to change anything. Asked if he’s losing confidence, Harrison said he knows he’s preparing the right way, and that’s all that matters. “Does your confidence come from results or does your confidence come from your process?” Harrison said, via ESPN. “And I think for me it comes from my process. So, my process isn’t going to change whether I get zero catches or 10 catches. I’m going to still do the same thing week in and week out, Monday through Saturday to prepare myself for games. So, I think that’s where I have a lot of my confidence comes from. And obviously you want to have more of an impact in the game, but I think confidence really has to come from preparation more than anything.” Harrison said no one player is ever solely responsible for his own production. “It’s definitely a combination of a lot of things,” Harrison said. “For my route tree getting down the field, you need a lot of things to go right. You need the right coverage, you need protection to hold up, you need me to run a great route, you need obviously Jacoby to make the right pass and make the right read. So, I feel like it’s never one person’s fault for anybody’s success or lack thereof, really. So, I think it’s always a combination of a bunch of things and whether that’s a lack of success or success in general.” Harrison’s comments may be true, and yet there’s no denying that he has been a disappointment as the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. His rookie year was only OK, he declined in his second season, and through two games in Year 3 he has gone into a steeper decline. Harrison’s process may not change, but something has to change.

SAN FRANCISCOQB BROCK PURDY says he (and other QBs who are taller) don’t actually “see” the receiver on a lot of plays: @JoshChambersBrock Purdy says NFL quarterbacks can’t actually see where they’re throwing nearly 40% of the time, and explains why processing information is more important than having a strong arm “My quarterback coach, Brian Griese, the last couple years, he and I talked about that. He played 11 years, his dad’s Bob Griese. But we got talking about how really it’s 60/40. You can see about 60% of the time, and the other 40% you really can’t. I mean, it doesn’t matter how big you are.” “He goes, that’s why it’s so important when it comes down to knowing coverages, knowing scheme, where our players are supposed to be, how many steps they’re breaking, and where the ball should be over a certain backer. All those things, man, it matters.” “And that’s why guys, you know, if you go to a combine and all those things, you’re just throwing on air, and yeah, you look all good with a strong arm and fast, jumping, all that stuff. But when it comes down to 11-on-11 and you got guys that are a foot taller and you can’t see, it comes down to the processing.” “Like before the play, I know that this safety is probably going to rotate down. It’s going to be one high, and I got one hitch, no more than that, to rip it where Deebo’s supposed to be, like just inside the hash. And there’s a backer that’s also got a 40-inch vert that I got to put it over. That’s what’s crazy, all those things when you’re fitting it in over the backer and underneath the deep safety.”– – -Jordan Dajani of CBSSports.com on how the 49ers were hot on the trail of RB CAM SKATTEBO:’ NFL draft stories are the greatest. Remember when a homeless man told Cleveland Browns owner Jimmy Haslam to draft Johnny Manziel? Or when the Minnesota Vikings missed their No. 7 overall pick in 2003? Just this past draft, we watched wide receiver Makai Lemon speak with Pittsburgh Steelers executives on the phone, only for him to be stolen away by the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 20 overall. The “almost drafted” stories are fantastic. What would the NFL look like if the New Orleans Saints got Patrick Mahomes at No. 11 back in 2017? Or if the New York Giants selected Josh Allen at No. 2 overall in 2018? This week, we discovered a pretty interesting “almost drafted” story centered around running back Cam Skattebo.  When Tennessee Titans head coach Robert Saleh, who faces Skattebo this week, was asked what he thought about New York’s young star running back, he said he really liked the player. In fact, when he was the defensive coordinator of the San Francisco 49ers, the franchise was aiming to draft him in the fourth round before the Giants stole him away. “He’s cool, man, I like him,” Saleh said with a laugh. “He’s like the old-school 2010 Madden hit stick, lower your shoulder, run people over. Plays his ass off, lots of energy. I know going into the draft … we were actually about to draft him in San Francisco. Kyle [Shanahan] loved him, and he ended up getting taken right before we were picking, and I think we ended up with CJ West, who’s a pretty damn good player too. But he’s a spark plug.” Skattebo went just eight picks before the 49ers allegedly tried to grab him. I guess general manager John Lynch should have traded up. Or the 49ers could have selected him five picks earlier at No. 100 overall, where they picked Western Kentucky cornerback Upton Stout.

SEATTLEA media dustup involving coaches Mike Macdonald and Sean Payton.  Kole Musgrove of Seahawks Wire: Right now the biggest story of the week regarding the Seattle Seahawks is about their head coach Mike Macdonald and some recent comments he made. During a sit down with Graham Bensinger, Macdonald shared a story about how Broncos head coach Sean Payton accused him of cheating prior to their 2024 season opener against Denver. Seattle claimed victory in part due to the team scouting plays that Broncos fans unwittingly provided them by sharing recordings from training camp. What has made this already juicy story into a bigger deal is the fact Macdonald and the Seahawks did not expect this information to be shared for public consumption according to NBC Sports. Macdonald was under the impression this was a seemingly private conversation between him and Bensinger, even if he didn’t explicitly state it was “off the record.” The Seahawks are not thrilled by this, and according to NBC’s Florio, it could get “ugly” between them and Bensinger. Macdonald spoke with the media on Wednesday afternoon and he directly addressed the controversy. He said he apologized to Sean Payton about his comments, and took responsibility for his own words no matter the circumstances. Macdonald acknowledged it was a “lesson learned” and it “stings” for him falling short in the moment. Macdonald did praise Sean Payton, both as a coach and how he handled reacting to this story. Payton also says things are good now: Broncos head coach Sean Payton got his chance to address Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald’s comments about a 2024 disagreement between the teams at his Wednesday press conference. Macdonald said earlier in the day that he called Payton to apologize after comments he intended to be off the record about Payton getting upset about the Seahawks’ use of fan videos from training camp to prepare for a 2024 game went public. Payton said he and Macdonald are good and said he called Seahawks General Manager John Schneider “shooting before I started looking” because he didn’t know how the Seahawks had obtained the videos. The videos were posted on social media and Payton said that the incident wound up in a positive way because it allowed the Broncos to address videotaping of their practices. “Talking with them, it allowed us to figure out how to handle our training camp relative to videos,” Payton said. “I don’t think anything was intentional by fans. We did some research online of what was available and that’s kind of how we changed our policy.” Payton called the entire episode “eye-opening” in terms of how information from open practices can circulate and both sides will likely be sticking to official game tape to prepare for their Week 6 game.

THIS AND THAT

RANKING THE 0-2 TEAMSKevin Patra of NFL.com studies which 0-2 teams might have a chance. It’s never good to start your season 0-2. It’s not a death knell either.  A year ago, three of the 10 teams that started the season 0-2 made their way to the postseason: the Chicago Bears, Houston Texans and Carolina Panthers. It marked the second straight season three clubs started 0-2 and made the playoffs. Thank you, expanded playoff, 17 games and pervasive parity.  Since 1990, only 38 of 288 0-2 clubs (12.8%) made the postseason, 21 won a division title (7%) and three took home a Lombardi Trophy (1%) — 1993 Dallas Cowboys after Emmitt Smith ended his holdout; 2001 New England Patriots (Tom Brady made his first career start in Week 3); 2007 New York Giants, who won their next six games and became the first NFC wild-card team to win a Super Bowl. The Texans find themselves on this list for the second straight season, needing to dig themselves out of an early-season hole that provides little room for further missteps. Given their experience and tough opening slate, DeMeco Ryans’ squad leads my yearly ranking of 0-2 teams I still believe in. 1 Houston TexansReason for optimism: Defense remains top tierFacing two superstars in Josh Allen and Joe Burrow in the first two weeks comes with consequences. The Texans D got beat up by Allen in the opener, yet were a Kamari Lassiter botched INT from this being a very different conversation. In Week 2, Ja’Marr Chase and Burrow had to make ridiculous plays to get the Bengals on the board. Great offense beats great defense. I still believe DeMeco Ryans’ D is elite. Will Anderson Jr. generated five pressures (four quick pressures) on 31 pass rushes in Week 2 against the Bengals (16.1% pressure rate). Despite the losses, Houston still ranks No. 1 in success rate allowed (34.2%), per Next Gen Stats. Danielle Hunter has been a tad slow out of the blocks, and the secondary isn’t playing up to its skill level yet — the addition of Reed Blankenship has been particularly fruitless thus far. However, the talent remains, particularly as the secondary gels, for Houston to take its place among premier defenses in 2026. Not facing aliens at quarterback will help, too. Additionally, C.J. Stroud has looked solid through two games, despite continued blocking issues, a still-struggling rushing attack, and missing his top two receiver targets. Few QBs can succeed with their top targets on the shelf and no run-game help. Stroud lost two fumbles in Week 1, but he hasn’t thrown a pick and doesn’t have the same rushed, deer-in-headlights play we saw to end the Texans’ playoff run last campaign. There are strides to make, but Stroud isn’t my worry. Nico Collins will return from his hamstring injury. If Tank Dell can provide a boost eventually, the passing attack will be in a much better spot around Halloween than it was the first two weeks. Houston’s big concern is whether the O-line can finally gel in its 20th rebuild. 2 Tampa Bay BuccaneersReason for optimism: The little things are correctableBaker Mayfield and the Bucs have gotten in their own way through two games. In Week 1, Mayfield played fumble-the-pigskin, turning it over three times against Cincinnati, which led to 21 Bengals points. In Week 2, he threw an INT versus Cleveland that led to another FG. Baker has been a tick off the mark to start the year, and his offensive linemen have made far too many mistakes given their pedigree. Bad penalties, missed blocks, passes just off the mark, flubbed balls by receivers, running backs missing the hole. The Bucs have looked like an offense that needed more preseason reps. It’s a similar story for Todd Bowles’ defense, which has been a hair shy on many plays to open the season. Missed tackles leading to explosive plays, a pass rush that was just a half-step late, or a coverage that rotated just a pulse slow are all issues that have plagued the Tampa D. Sunday’s home loss to Cleveland was bad, particularly given they held a 10-point second-half lead. Yet, watching the games, it’s more frustrating than depressing. The mistakes are correctable. Playing in the NFC South, where no team is likely to run away with the division, also provides a bit of reprieve for a 0-2 squad. They need Mayfield to start playing like a $55 million quarterback, though. 3 Indianapolis ColtsReason for optimism: Jonathan Taylor can still gallopThe Indy defense has been ripped to shreds through two weeks, ranking 32nd in points allowed, 32nd in yards allowed, 32nd in yards per play, 32nd in passing yards, 32nd in yards per pass play allowed, 31st in rush yards allowed, 31st in yards per carry and 30th in first downs given up. Facing Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes will have that effect, but it’s been worse than simply taking on two MVP QBs. The defensive front hasn’t generated pressure, and the linebackers have been picked on. The D needs to improve if the offense is going to have a chance to pull out games. The good news for the Colts is that Daniel Jones looks fine coming off his Achilles injury. I was skeptical of the praise during offseason work, but it’s stood the test. Jones has been able to move the ball, and he doesn’t look restricted from the injury. Despite Alec Pierce’s heel injury, which is expected to sideline the receiver several weeks, the Colts moved the ball against K.C. on Sunday. Jonathan Taylor continues to churn, ranking in the top five in rushing yards and tied for the most rushing TDs through two weeks (4). The lack of a big-time passing attack with Pierce on the shelf is a concern. How far can quick strikes to Josh Downs take them? We’ll see if Darius Slayton’s reunion with Jones can help provide a field-stretching weapon. In the meantime, the Colts should saddle up Taylor plenty. Despite a heavy workload in recent years, he remains spry and has proven he can be a one-cut weapon who keeps Indy in games. Also working to Indy’s benefit: The AFC South has no clear champion, with three 0-2 clubs and one 1-1 team in Jacksonville. Shane Steichen’s squad needs to put it together at the right time, but this division will be contested until the end. 4  Los Angeles ChargersReason for optimism: It can’t get worseLosing to a couple of 2025 three-win squads at home (Cardinals, Raiders) is about as bad of a start to a season as a team can have. Unfortunately, it looked worse than on paper. Disjointed doesn’t begin to describe how Jim Harbaugh’s team has played. Perhaps curtailing the offseason work in an effort to stay healthier wasn’t the right plan. New coordinator Mike McDaniel’s offense has been a mess. Justin Herbert looks about as comfortable as a kitten in a hot tub. The offensive line remains a sore spot. L.A. has generated a -0.25 EPA per play, 29th in the NFL, with a league-low -0.48 EPA per called run, per Next Gen Stats. The -0.07 EPA per dropback is only marginally better. Turnovers have been a killer, and Herbert’s inability to find a flow at all in the new offense is very concerning. The defense has been better than the offense, but has lacked pop. They’ve given up too many big plays and have forced just a single turnover thus far. Sitting in the cellar of the hotly contested AFC West, with a gauntlet of a schedule ahead, is a bad, bad sign for Harbaugh’s squad. The silver lining: They have too much talent to be doormats all season. The defense can be more stifling — though what seems to be a downgrade in coordinator thus far is concerning after Jesse Minter left for Baltimore. Offensive tackle Joe Alt won’t play as poorly as he did Sunday. Herbert can only get more comfortable. Negating the turnovers and negative plays is step one. Then, maybe they can baby-step their way out of the basement. 5 Tennessee TitansReason for optimism: Cam Ward can take steps forwardOutside of Jeffery Simmons continuing to prove he’s one of the best all-around defenders — 13 QB pressures, tied for third most among all defenders, and most among DTs, per NGS — Robert Saleh’s defense has been a disappointment thus far. There isn’t consistent pressure off the edge, and the run defense has been average. Tennessee ranks 24th in EPA per play allowed. That’s not what we expected from a Saleh-led group. The offense has taken infantile steps under Brian Daboll, but the pass attack still has a ways to go. Cam Ward’s inconsistency as a passer -– with too many missed layups — must improve. Tennessee ranks 25th in EPA per dropback (-0.11). The rushing attack has been more buoyant, ranking eighth in the NFL in EPA per called run, with Ward punching in two TDs in Week 2. Despite the struggles, Ward continues to show flashes, with an ability to drop an explosive play. He kept them in the game against a good Eagles defense. We need more. I’m not ready to cash out on last year’s No. 1 overall pick yet. He needs to improve his accuracy and game management, but it’s too early in his work with the new staff to give up hope. Like the other two division rivals on this list, it’s anyone’s game in the AFC South. Why not Tennessee making the turnaround? 6  Washington CommandersReason for optimism: Jayden Daniels flashed playmaking before latest injuryBefore exiting Week 2 with an elbow injury on the final play of the first half of Sunday’s loss to Dallas, Jayden Daniels scrambled for 69 yards on six runs, his third-highest total in a game and a career high in a half, per NFL Research. Daniels was responsible for three explosive rushes and five first downs; both are the second-highest single-game totals of his career, per NGS. The QB got the Commanders back in the game against the Eagles and was matching wits with Dak Prescott until the injury. We still don’t know how long he’ll be out, but if he can return before the season completely collapses, they’ll have a shot. The Commanders offense ranks 11th in EPA per play, per NGS. Marcus Mariota is a fine backup, but he won’t cover all of Washington’s issues. The blocking has been porous, and the run game mostly mediocre. Terry McLaurin has yet to get involved much in the offense. The defense, despite big spending on that side of the ball this offsason, remains a Swiss-cheese unit, ranking 27th in EPA/play, and continues to get burned by the pass. The secondary remains a mess. They’re one of the worst coverage units in the league. The Commanders not only need Daniels back, but they also need him to be Superman to get back into the race. 7 Atlanta FalconsReason for optimism: Maybe Michael Penix Jr. can flashIt’s been a rough watch in Atlanta for two weeks. Rough is probably putting it too nicely. The Falcons, with Cooper Rush and Jack Strand under center, rank 32nd in EPA per dropback at -0.75 — No. 31 is Pittsburgh at -0.52. Atlanta ranks 32nd in EPA per play, scoring-drive rate and touchdown-drive rate, per Next Gen Stats. It’s been Bijan Robinson, who leads the team in both rushing and receiving, and nothing else. The Dirty Birds were fun to watch. These are the Ugly Birds. The ridiculously bad offense has overshadowed a not-too-shabby defense run by Jeff Ulbrich. Despite missing its top two pass rushers — James Pearce Jr. to suspension and Jalon Walker to injury — the Falcons rank tied for 10th in EPA per play with the L.A. Rams and have allowed the fourth-lowest success rate per play. ATL has also generated 34 QB pressures in two weeks, tied for fifth-most. Things get a little harder for this crew with A.J. Terrell landing on IR this week. The Falcons can’t turn anything around unless the QB play improves. It’s not Cooper Rush’s fault he was thrust into action he had no business in. He was QB3 for a reason. Tua Tagovailoa has been a non-factor, despite the current administration seeking him out this offseason. From bad preseason play to an oblique injury that knocked him out the last two weeks, I don’t consider him a legit option at this stage. It all comes down to Michael Penix Jr. If the 2024 first-rounder can bounce back to the sliver of promise he showed late in his rookie season, the Falcons have a shot in a winnable NFC South. If he continues to struggle as he did before last year’s knee injury, Atlanta will be looking to use another high draft pick on a QB in the offseason. Ideally, Penix opens up a restricted offense and gets Drake London and Kyle Pitts involved. However, we don’t have any legit information on how Penix will fit in Kevin Stefanski’s scheme, so it’s a hope-and-a-prayer at this stage. 8 Miami DolphinsReason for optimism: Young players growingWelp, we knew it would be a rebuilding year in South Beach. And so it is. While it was slightly disappointing that Jeff Hafley’s squad didn’t put up a better fight against Vegas in Week 1, this past Sunday’s blowout in San Francisco felt expected. So will be the others that likely come in the weeks ahead. Ryan Fitzpatrick was right; this feels like a squad capable of 0-17. Of course, with eleventy-billion dollars in dead money, it was somewhat expected. The most disappointing aspect is that the offense hasn’t shown much pop. Malik Willis’ impressive play from Green Bay hasn’t yet found its way to Miami. His accuracy has waned and, somewhat surprisingly, the Fins haven’t utilized him as a runner much — eight attempts for 45 yards. With all the focus on De’Von Achane, the RB has struggled to break loose, earning a 29.0% rush success rate, a 1.87 yards-after-contact average and a long of 17. The jitterbug hasn’t been able to shake loose yet. The defense has been a struggle bus as well, authoring a league-low 16 QB pressures and five quick pressures, with zero sacks — the only team in the league without one through two weeks. The secondary has been picked on too. Miami ranks 32nd in EPA per dropback allowed. This season was always going to be about Miami’s youngsters. From that end, there have been some flashes. Guard Kadyn Proctor has been solid next to Patrick Paul. Caleb Douglas had an excellent Week 1 and showed the ability to create separation. I want to see more from Chris Bell at receiver. The player I’m really intrigued by: linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. I know he’s missed a few plays, but the second-round rookie has a nose for the football, is always in the frame and can bring a thump. He might not grade out well from your analytics department, but Rodriguez is fun to watch and already leads the Dolphins with 11 run stops. In a league where LBs are becoming more and more vital to a D’s success or failure, I will be monitoring the rookies closely for the rest of the way. Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com pondered the same question.  We will slice most of his lengthy thoughts but we bet he starts and ends in the same place: 1. Houston TexansChances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 41.8% (16th highest)A win against the Colts on Sunday in what amounts to a de facto playoff game would calm concerns in Houston. And after what happened in 2025, there isn’t the same sort of panic after an 0-2 start that there would typically be for a team with championship aspirations. Given those expectations, though, starting the season by losing to a pair of teams that the Texans would expect to see again in the postseason picture is a disappointing start. And if the Texans do fall to the Colts next week, their margin for error would grow perilously thin. 2. Tampa Bay BuccaneersChances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 16.6% (24th)You could make a reasonable case that the Buccaneers have played as well as any of the other teams on this list. You could also point out that they lost to the Browns at home one week after Cleveland looked like it didn’t belong on an NFL field against Jacksonville. Both takes seem fair. But the Bucs are alive in the NFC South because nobody is ever really eliminated from contention in that division 3. Indianapolis ColtsChances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 25.9% (20th)The Colts will look back on last week’s loss to the Chiefs as a missed opportunity.  The two big bets general manager Chris Ballard made this offseason aren’t off to great starts. Receiver Alec Pierce signed a four-year, $114 million deal to return in free agency, had five catches through two games and aggravated the calf injury he was dealing with during the offseason. He’s out indefinitely, and while the Colts signed Darius Slayton to take Pierce’s spot in the lineup, Indy will be down its primary field stretcher moving forward. The more concerning problem might be the play of Daniel Jones, who looks more like the guy who was run out of town in New York than the one who revitalized his career with Indianapolis last season. – The good news for the Colts is that the AFC South has a combined one win through eight games, so their 0-2 start hasn’t pushed them too far out of contention. Things also get easier from here on out. Indy has played the toughest schedule so far per ESPN’s FPI, but it gets the sixth-easiest slate moving forward. After this week’s game against the Texans, though, four of the next five games are on the road, including a trip to London to play the Commanders  4. Los Angeles ChargersChances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 7.2% (26th) -Disaster. There’s no other way to characterize what we’ve seen from the Chargers. They look disjointed, careless, poorly coached and sloppy on both sides of the ball.  And, well, more adversity is about to arrive. As you might have heard, the Chargers are about to face one of the more brutal stretches any NFL team has dealt with in recent memory. Over the next seven weeks, the Chargers will go up against the Bills, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans and Ravens. That group includes the FPI’s second-, third-, fourth-, fifth- and sixth-best teams in terms of Super Bowl odds. The model has the Chargers as very slight favorites at home against the Broncos and as underdogs in the other six contests.– – –I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a better version of the Chargers in the weeks to come, if only because there’s too much talent and too many experienced people in the room to not find some sense of competency. But it’s unlikely we’ll see that version of the Chargers — let alone something resembling the version people had in their heads during the offseason — on a weekly basis. With the Chiefs looking like their old selves, the Raiders starting 2-0 and the Broncos righting the ship with a win over the Jaguars, the Chargers are already in a ton of trouble in the AFC. And have you heard about their schedule? 5. Atlanta FalconsChances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 1.5% (29th)No head coach in recent memory has cycled through quarterbacks quite like Kevin Stefanski. During the 2023 season, his Browns became the first team since at least 2002 (and likely much longer) to start five different QBs in a single season. They also made the playoffs, which seems like it shouldn’t be possible. The Browns started four different quarterbacks in 2024 and three in 2025. The Falcons, Stefanski’s new team, will already be on their third quarterback of the season when Michael Penix Jr. returns to the lineup and starts against the Packers on Thursday night. Cooper Rush was unexpectedly pushed into the starting lineup after Tua Tagovailoa suffered an oblique injury just before the start of the season. And while Rush was reportedly dealing with back spasms of his own, he was unplayable. He threw four picks on 39 dropbacks, took sacks more than 11% of the time and failed to average even 6 yards per pass attempt. His 5.2 Total QBR was 24 points below that of any other starter through two weeks. Rush was benched midway through the second half against the Panthers for undrafted rookie Jack Strand, who then threw a pick-six on his first NFL pass. Strand averaged 0.1 adjusted net yards per pass dropback, although his 12.3 Total QBR was more than double Rush’s production. Strand isn’t likely to start a game for the Falcons this season, but we could see more of him in garbage time if the Falcons have to cycle through more quarterbacks. The vibes through two weeks aren’t great. – – –As I said with the Buccaneers, no team is out of it in the NFC South after two games. As bad as they’ve looked, the Falcons are still one game out of a tie for first place in the division. Last year, the Panthers started 0-2 and still won the division over a Bucs team that opened the season 3-0 and hit its midseason bye at 6-2. There’s still some reason to be hopeful about the Falcons, although that could quickly fade if injuries sink the roster in the weeks to come. 6. Washington CommandersChances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 7.4% (25th)With the Seahawks traveling to face the Commanders in Washington’s home opener this week, Daniels sidelined indefinitely and a stretch against the 49ers, Eagles and Rams on the way before we hit mid-November, the Commanders might transition from a team that hopes to contend to one looking toward 2027 if things don’t turn around quickly. 7. Tennessee TitansChances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 4.4% (28th)This was going to be the year of developing Cam Ward. The Titans hired Brian Daboll, who did great work with Josh Allen and turned around Daniel Jones’ career, as their offensive coordinator. They loaded up with new offensive starters in free agency and used their first-round pick on wide receiver Carnell Tate. They might have paid too much to sign marginal former Giants Wan’Dale Robinson, Daniel Bellinger and Austin Schlottmann, but if Ward looked like an NFL-caliber starter in his second season, all would be forgiven.– – –As it has been for the past few years, success for the Titans is about something more than being competitive. Can this front office accurately identify which players are going to be part of the core moving forward? Can the coaching staff put those players in position to succeed? Can ownership resist the urge to fire the coach or general manager over a 12-month span? A win over the Eagles would have been a feather in the Titans’ cap, but after losing two games at home to start the season, four of their six games before the bye are on the road. That doesn’t bode well for Tennessee’s chances of sticking in the AFC South race. 8. Miami DolphinsChances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 0.1% (32nd)The Dolphins have generally been as advertised: bad. This roster combines a handful of players who were part of a disappointing 2025 Dolphins team with a 2026 draft class, new quarterback Malik Willis and dozens of journeyman free agents who signed one-year deals this offseason.– – –And of course, that’s the crux of the tanking problem. The Dolphins want to evaluate their young players, but can you really evaluate the secondary when the pass rush is hopeless? Can you get a good read on Willis when he’s throwing to rookies, Malik Washington, Ryan Willis and Greg Dulcich? I can’t fault the Dolphins for playing the young guys and rebuilding their roster, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be a fun or productive time. So everything is the same between Patra and Barnwell except Patra has the Titans ahead of the Falcons and Commanders.