STATE OF FANS

Mike Florio has been leading the charge that all teams should ban fans until authority in the most timid jurisdiction is finally convinced that it is safe.  The Commish pushes back.

During a Tuesday conference call with reporters, Commissioner Roger Goodell said that he and the Competition Committee have agreed that there’s no competitive advantage if some teams have fans in the stands and others don’t, due to the varying rules of the pandemic. During a Wednesday appearance on CNBC, Goodell doubled down — and he expanded greatly the scope of the entities who believe there’s no competitive edge.

“I would probably take issue with the fact that it’s a huge competitive advantage,” Goodell said in response to a question that acknowledged in its framing the obvious existence of a dramatic edge for teams with fans. “As you know, our stadium sizes are different across the league. The attendance is different on a normal season. We do not see and our clubs do not see a competitive advantage at all whether fans are in one stadium or another.”

Some of the clubs see a competitive advantage, however. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer has said so. Bills coach Sean McDermott has as well. Raiders owner Mark Davis likewise has said that if one team can have no fans, no teams should have fans.

Although the public discourse in America now routinely feature assertions that simply aren’t objectively credible, in most cases there’s a tactical reason for making that claim, a base to which the statements cater. Here, who’s the base? Where’s the percentage of fans insisting no matter what that there’s no competitive advantage?

Maybe the base in this case consists of one — Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, the only owner who has claimed that there’s no competitive advantage . . . as he prepares to host up to 50-percent capacity in his cavernous stadium for Cowboys home games.

Regardless, few will co-sign the concept that there’s no competitive advantage to teams that have fans present and those that don’t. And for good reason; of course there’s a competitive advantage.

Home teams only won 51.7% of regular season games in 2019.

A homefield advantage, if it were to exist, would be created by some combination of two things – the effects of fans largely rooting for the home team plus the stress of travel on the visiting team (time out of preparation and rest, strange surroundings).

The latter part of the equation will still exist in 2020, perhaps at an even greater rate due to extensive safety protocols in the travel and housing.

Unmentioned, of course, by Florio is the NFL’s need for revenue to pay the players lavish salaries next year and to remain engaged with its fan base which would be enhanced by in-stadium fans.

STATE OF PROTEST

Everyone involved in the NFL will be voting (presumably in person based on this news).  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

49ers CEO Jed York indicated earlier this year that he would make Election Day a day off for his team so that everyone would be free to vote.

The 49ers won’t be alone in closing up shop on November 3. The NFL and NFLPA issued a joint statement on Thursday to announce that all league, union and team facilities will be closed on Election Day “to ensure that every member of the NFL family has an opportunity to exercise the precious right to vote.”

Recent weeks have seen NFL teams move to have their stadiums serve as polling places or fill other functions related to the election. Teams have also spoken about making sure everyone in the organization knows how to register to vote. Thursday’s statement mentions both of those initiatives as well as noting that the league and union will “identify safe and appropriate ways in which members of the NFL family can assist in election efforts.”

In addition to the election news, the NFL and NFLPA announced that a one-hour special on NBC next Wednesday will focus on “a platform for our players and allies to discuss the work that we are doing together to advance social justice and equality.” They also said teams will facilitate meetings with elected officials and law enforcement leaders to discuss ways to improve  relations between law enforcement and the communities they serve.

STATE OF ROSTER

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com on the expanded practice squads and other changes:

We’re two days away from the frenzy of moves that will trim all rosters from a maximum of 80 down to 53. (We’ll have you covered every step of the way, by the way.) This year, there’s a new dynamic that needs to be factored into the process.

Of the 16-person practice squad, up to six of the spots may go to players with unlimited NFL experience. Thus, a veteran (who doesn’t have to go through waivers) can be offered a spot on the practice squad, at whatever amount the team wants to pay him.

It’s one of the very real factors that teams will take into account when reducing the roster to 53. Do they believe that a veteran player who won’t be a starter would take less to join the practice squad, in lieu of moving to a new city as the regular season starts? If so, that veteran’s salary as a member of the 53-man roster may become something lower than that if/when the veteran is released and then re-signed to the practice squad.

Keep an eye on this possibility as the cuts happen. Some of those older players who get released may end up going nowhere, given those six spots that can be used for veterans who will be in position to be bumped up to the 53-man roster in the event of injuries or COVID-19 outbreaks.

NFC NORTH

GREEN BAY

This:

@MichaelDavSmith

I wonder what percentage of NFL fans know that Aaron Rodgers’ completion percentage and yards per attempt were both below the league average last year. He still throws an absurdly low number of interceptions but otherwise his stats are pedestrian.

MINNESOTA

Perhaps in a sign of changing times, QB KIRK COUSINS is battling back from cancellation after revealing himself to be a Covid-19 skeptic.  Greg Couch with the view from the expanding Outkick.com:

Kirk Cousins is not endangering anyone. He’s not showing disrespect to anyone who has died of Covid-19. He’s not making a political statement. Just calm down and listen:

If anything, he is showing loyalty, respect and grace.

“If I die, I die,’’ he said on Kyle Brandt’s “10 Questions’’ podcast on Spotify, when asked about how afraid he is of the virus.

That set off a storm on Wednesday. And it was so easy — as it took just 15 characters in anyone’s tweet to show Cousins’ whole statement — to express outrage and vilify him. Cousins had to come back Wednesday, on a day when the Vikings quarterback was not planning to talk with the media and the team didn’t practice, to clarify what he meant.

But the truth is Cousins had barely even been talking about the virus. He was talking about his team.

What you actually saw was the mentality of a tough-guy, a football guy speaking from the viewpoint of someone who grew up in the football culture.

So I called a coach known for his old-school approach, Mark Mangino, to ask how he interpreted Cousins’ words.

“I think he’s trying to display leadership to his locker room,’’ said Mangino, the former Kansas coach. “As a coach, I appreciate that. I respect his toughness. He was just trying to show that `I’m all in. I’m here to win.’ “

Mangino transformed Kansas into an Orange Bowl champ, won several national coach of the year awards and then lost his job two years later because the school deemed his methods were too tough. Old-school coaches analogize football to war, and we now live in a country that’s opposed to the military mindset used to build competitors.

Mangino said Cousins was displaying the team mentality, which is now an issue for every football player at every level.

“If I die, I die. He’s saying he’s willing to make the supreme sacrifice for playing the sport of football,’’ Mangino said. “I’m not telling you he made the right quote there. But when you look at the symbolism to coaches and the fan base, it’s that he’s all in. He probably could have said it a better way.

“No matter how much you love playing the game, those guys, probably from the time they were 8, 9 years old, they played football every fall of their life. So they want to play. But I don’t believe every single NFL player, college player or high school player does not have it in the back of their mind that we are in a serious time in our country and our world with this pandemic.’’

Football players have been taught to think this way, to look past physical risks. To play football is to take a chance with your body and your health. And you have to put that out of your head in the same way an Indy driver has to clear his head of the possibility of a crash.

Football players know the risks, have seen the injuries. They play through the risks of CTE. If they get hurt, they get hurt.

Mangino said he respects any player who opts out this year. He also respects players who choose to play.

This is how overzealous critics work. They are taking one piece of something Cousins said and fitting it neatly into their philosophy. They are not bothering to put it in the context of the football culture that Cousins is from, or even to listen to what he was actually trying to say in his interview.

Cousins said that wearing a mask is “really about being respectful to other people. It really has nothing to do with my own personal thoughts.’’

What he was saying in the interview — which apparently took place in July even though it wasn’t released until Wednesday — was that he follows the protocols for other people. He respects their views.

He’s being thoughtful. For some people it’s not enough to act a certain way. You have to think that way, too. So the Vikings dragged Cousins out Wednesday to explain.

“What I wanted to say then, what I would echo again now, is that while the virus does not give me a great amount of personal fear,’’ Cousins said, “there’s still great reason for me to engage in wearing a mask and social distancing and washing my hands as frequently as I can and following protocols that have been set in place, obviously, to be respectful and considerate to other people.’’

He’s there for other people. He’s there for his team and the fans. And he’s ready to go.

This from Michael David Smith, usually in favor of compelled timidity:

@MichaelDavSmith

I listened to Kirk Cousins’ “If I die, I die” comments and didn’t interpret them the way most are. I believe Cousins was expressing his religious view that death isn’t to be feared because life is eternal. I think he’d say the same about any illness and wasn’t downplaying covid.

Not everyone is convinced though that Cousins deserves respect.  Nancy Armour of USA TODAY commands not just obedience in action, but total obedience to “epidemioligists” in thought and word:

Kirk Cousins believes what he believes.

And therein lies the problem.

The Minnesota Vikings quarterback moved up his scheduled Zoom call with reporters by a day to try and explain just what he meant when he said he wasn’t much concerned by COVID-19 because “If I die, I die. I kind of have peace about that.” But as it turns out, Cousins meant what he said. He just wishes he’d said it differently.

“Admittedly, I did not use the best wording. I certainly could have articulated it better,” he said. “(But) the heart behind it is no different then as it is today.”

As an NFL quarterback, Cousins’ words have an impact. In his home, in the Vikings’ facilities and in a country that prizes the NFL above any other sport. The last thing that’s needed, with 185,000 dead and misinformation already being spread at the highest levels, is for Cousins to give any license to the idea that the virus shouldn’t be viewed with the utmost seriousness.

One of the most distressing things about America right now is that we no longer have a shared set of facts. When a pandemic has killed almost half as many Americans as in all of World War II, cratered our economy and forced us to stay away from friends and loved ones for their own protection, it should not be up for debate that the virus is bad and that caution should be exercised.

When epidemiologists and virologists say the best thing we can do until there is a vaccine or proven treatment is wear masks and social distance, it shouldn’t become a cultural football. When data shows that young, healthy people are not immune and even those without symptoms could be left with long-term damage to their hearts and brains, it shouldn’t even be a question that health and safety need to be the priority.

When asked if he could understand why his comments, first aired on Kyle Brandt’s “10 Questions” podcast, were seen by many as damaging, Cousins said he was expressing his personal feelings. He also said he’s adhering to the NFL’s safety protocols for social distancing, frequent hand washing and wearing face coverings – so much so that when he left his locker to go to a meeting recently and didn’t have his mask, he immediately realized something was missing.

 “That’s what it’s all about, right? I want to be very respectful and considerate of everyone else,” Cousins said.

But how can he be, when he’s so steadfast in sowing the seeds of doubt?

NFC EAST

DALLAS

Will NFL players ostracize teammates who buck the trend, whatever it proves to be, as far as kneeling or standing for Our National Anthem next week?  Not QB DAK PRESCOTT according to Todd Archer of ESPN.com:

If the Dallas Cowboys players make any kind of gesture during the national anthem regarding social injustice, Dak Prescott believes it should be an individual choice, and coach Mike McCarthy supports his quarterback.

“That’s what this country is about, the freedom to do that, the freedom to express yourself,” Prescott said Wednesday. “We heard Mr. Jones [Cowboys owner Jerry Jones] talk about grace and sharing grace and having grace with players in what they want to do. If I had it my way, that’s exactly what we’d do is express ourselves individually but love and support one another collectively.”

On Thursday, McCarthy said, “I think it’s what’s best for all of us. I think the individuality of expressing yourself is part of that decision. I saw Dak’s comments this morning and I think he expressed it very well. I thought he hit the nail right on the head, and that’s the way we’ll move forward.”

How the Cowboys handle the anthem prior to the Sept. 13 opener against the Los Angeles Rams will be viewed with more scrutiny than how other teams handle it because Jones has said in the past that players must stand or not play.

Jones has not said what he expects from his players before the anthem this year. In his opening news conference of training camp, Jones said he would have “grace,” which suggested he would be more open to players gesturing.

Speaking last week on 105.3 The Fan, however, he said he hoped to reach a compromise similar to one in 2017.

Then, Jones worked out a compromise with the players in taking a knee before the anthem and standing arm in arm during the anthem. No player has tested Jones’ policy since, although former defensive lineman David Irving would raise a fist at the end of the anthem. Robert Quinn and Michael Bennett protested while with other teams before coming to the Cowboys, but both stood for the anthem last year, although Bennett paced in the bench area.

Jones was not part of a team meeting last week that dealt with the shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin, and continued calls for social justice, but executive vice president Stephen Jones was.

“The takeaways from the team meeting, just that ownership supports us. They support the team,” Ezekiel Elliott said. “We’re going to support each other. Our steps forward from this point on, just making sure we get out in the community. We want to focus on working with the youth going back in our Dallas community and working with the youth.”

Asked Thursday if the team would have a meeting with Jerry Jones, McCarthy said, “I would say that those conversations are ongoing. There have been conversations, and frankly what comes out of those conversations is probably more to the people that are in them. It’s not frankly something I’m specifically going to talk on. This has been an ongoing conversation since we got together there back in April and May.”

Prescott pledged $1 million for police reform after the death of George Floyd in May. He has taken part in discussions with local police departments over the past year and is in the process of starting programs through his foundation.

“We need the trust. Trust is both ways. It’s just such a sensitive time we’re in. It’s very unfortunate,” Prescott said. “But I think the best thing we can all do is educate ourselves right now. Just because we’re popular doesn’t mean that we’re politicians. So I think we all need to be better at that — at educating ourselves and figuring out exactly what it is we can do and the particular role we can play within our communities and then further that.”

NEW YORK GIANTS

Gun-toting CB DeANDRE BAKER still appears on the Giants roster, but GM Dave Gettleman sees an expiration date approaching.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Deandre Baker is still a Giant, but there’s little chance of him playing for the team again. He’s on the commissioner’s exempt list and is facing armed robbery charges in Florida, and General Manager Dave Gettleman hinted that the team is just waiting for the right time to cut ties.

Asked why the Giants haven’t cut Baker already, Gettleman referred to “timing.”

“That’s fair. That’s a fair question,” Gettleman said, via the New York Daily News. “All I can say to that is in life there’s timing that’s involved. In life there’s timing. And that’s how I’ll respond to that, OK?”

Gettleman may have been saying the Giants are making sure they have all their ducks in a row to be able to void the guarantees in Baker’s contract. Baker has played just one year of the four-year, $10.5 million guaranteed contract he signed with the Giants as the 30th overall pick in last year’s NFL draft, and the Giants will surely make the case that Baker’s actions have violated his contract and allow the team to void his guarantees.

NFC SOUTH

CAROLINA

As the Buccaneers meekly acquiesce to Tampa’s mayor (see below), Panthers owner David Tepper pushes back at timid North Carolina authorities including the Democrat governor.

Panthers owner David Tepper expressed frustration with government officials over not allowing fans in the stadium for the team’s Sept. 13 home opener against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Tepper said he’ll continue to have conversations with government officials, including North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, about allowing the team to bring in a limited number of fans into Bank of America Stadium for future home games this season.

As of now, North Carolina is operating at Phase 2.5 of its COVID-19 recovery plan, which still prohibits mass gatherings or more than 50 people.

“We started developing a plan in March based on science and we spent a lot of time on it,” Tepper said during a conference call Wednesday of the team’s preparation to host fans at games.

“We have infectious disease experts in the plan, computer simulations, the whole bit, trying to be as safe as we can be. We do think we can do this. We don’t think we can do this as a whole stadium obviously, but we think we can do limited fans in the stadium very safely based on pure science.”

Tepper said more than half of the team’s permanent seat license holders have expressed a willingness to attend games this season despite the ongoing pandemic.

Tepper is concerned that Carolina’s division rivals in Atlanta, Tampa and New Orleans will have fans in their stadiums at some point this season, while the Panthers might not, thus creating a “competitive disadvantage.”

As of now, the Buccaneers and Falcons will not have fans at their first two home games. The Saints will have no fans at their first home game. But Tepper is worried Georgia and Louisiana state officials will allow NFL fans to attend games before North Carolina officials do.

NEW ORLEANS

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com on the Saints dilemma with RB ALVIN KAMARA who they have used judiciously so far:

More than a decade ago, teams began to see the value in using multiple running backs — especially when it comes to the value of the contracts given to those running backs. By shifting away from the workhorse model, teams avoid being backed into a financial corner by a highly-productive player with whom the fans have fallen in love.

Case in point: Shaun Alexander. The Seahawks had no choice but to give the 2005 NFL MVP a then-record eight-year, $62 million with $15 million paid out in the first year. After the first year, the Seahawks regretted it. After the second year, Alexander was gone.

Even as some teams (like the Saints starting in 2006, with Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush) pivoted away from putting all running back eggs in one basket, others have had — and have had to pay — true workhorse tailbacks. More recently, teams that give out big contracts to running backs (Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson) end up regretting them, quickly.

But that’s the price that is paid for allowing a player to become a touchdown-scoring, fantasy-football-fueling, jersey-selling machine. The Saints are now faced with paying that price to a running back who isn’t a workhorse.

Last year, for example, Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey had 403 touches. Kamara had 252.

So what happens if/when the Saints pay Kamara? Will they use him as a workhorse in an effort to justify the investment?

Before that question becomes relevant, the Saints and Kamara need to work out a long-term deal. There’s a belief that they’ll get there by Monday. If they don’t, things could get interesting. If they do, whether and to what extent Kamara will be used more like the Panthers use Christian McCaffrey will be even more interesting.

TAMPA BAY

Those hoping to see QB TOM BRADY in the red and pewter with their own eyes have been denied that opportunity, at least into October.  WTVT-TV:

While Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars fans will have a chance to see their team play in-person during the season opener, the same won’t be said for Tampa Bay fans eager to see Tom Brady.

The Buccaneers announced Wednesday no fans will be allowed at Raymond James Stadium for at least their first two home games, citing health concerns due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Ultimately, public health is our top priority,” Bucs COO Brian Ford wrote in a letter to season ticket holders. “Based on our conversations with local officials, we have determined that it is not yet the right time to welcome fans back to Raymond James Stadium.”

The key phrase there is “based on our conversations with local officials” who are believed to be Tampa Mayor Jane Castor (D).

In a radio interview, Castor would not admit to being the culprit, but did offer that a positive testing rate of 6.1% locally did not meet her standard of under 5%.

– – –

Buccaneers fans will also not have the opportunity to lay eyes on RB LEONARD FOURNETTE as Tampa Bay has signed the ex-Jaguar.  Grant Gordon of NFL.com:

And the stars continue to descend upon Tampa Bay.

Leonard Fournette won’t be traveling far to join his next NFL squad, as the recently released Jaguar is the newest much-ballyhooed Buccaneer.

Fournette, who was waived by Jacksonville on Monday, and Tampa Bay have agreed on a deal, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport and NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported Wednesday evening. The signing is for one year with a max value of $3.5 million and a $2 million base salary plus incentives based on rushing yards and playing time, Rapoport reported.

In addition, with no off-sets from his Jaguars contract, Fournette can “double dip” if he wins his grievance against Jacksonville and add $4.2 million to the equation, Rapoport added.

The 25-year-old Fournette had at least two other potential suitors, per Rapoport, but staying inside the Sunshine State and looking to shine with a contender after leaving behind a rebuilding franchise appears to have been a no-brainer.

Led by the signing of six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback Tom Brady, stars aplenty have arrived in Tampa Bay since the Buccaneers’ offseason kicked off. Joining the existing talent of receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and defensive linemen Shaq Barrett, Ndamukong Suh and Jason Pierre-Paul have been unretired tight end Rob Gronkowski, running back LeSean McCoy and first-round offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs.

And now Fournette.

Bucs coach Bruce Arians previously stated that Ronald Jones would be the team’s top running back, but the addition of a two-time 1,000-yard rusher to a franchise that hasn’t had a 1,000-yard runner since Doug Martin in 2015 definitely adds a wrinkle to those plans.

Long seen as an avenue in which the Bucs needed to improve, the running back situation in Tampa goes from a question mark to a seemingly crowded room that includes Fournette, Jones, McCoy and rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn. One potential problem could be that Fournette dons No. 27 — just like Jones. But that’s for another day. Wednesday was all about what could be with Brady’s bunch welcoming another bona fide talent.

Fournette’s coming off a career-best 1,152-yard showing in 2019 with the Jags and offers a battering ram to offset Brady’s aerial attack. Though his 76 receptions last year lean toward a different narrative, Fournette isn’t renowned for his ball-catching ability, but there is now versatility in the RB room that doesn’t make it necessary.

The 2017 NFL Draft’s No. 4 overall pick goes from one Florida squad to another and one sixth-round quarterback (Gardner Minshew) to another (Brady), but those are about the only trivial similarities to be had.

Two days prior, Fournette was the latest high-profile and homegrown Jaguars standout to be jettisoned from Jacksonville — a franchise looking to a future beyond 2020.

Now, he’s the latest talent to join a star-studded Buccaneers franchise looking to a future that’s all about winning right now.

The Buccaneers have long sought a 1,000-yard rusher and they found him on Wednesday. Fournette shortly sought a new home and he found it, with much fanfare and promise for what may come.

Is 2015 a long time?  Maybe.  That was when Doug Martin rushed for 1,402 yards.  Martin also topped 1,000 in 2012.

There are analytics that don’t support the notion that Fournette is a significant upgrade (which is what the DB has seen with his less-scientific eye test).  A tweet from Michael David Smith has a stat:

@MichaelDavSmith

Last year Leonard Fournette had zero DYAR, the Football Outsiders stat that measures how much yardage a running back gains compared to a replacement player. Meaning Fournette had exactly the same production you’d expect from whatever RB the Jaguars could’ve grabbed off waivers.

If you give him 270 carries, he probably will just barely get to 1,000 yards.

– – –

The 2^nd PK drafted by Jason Licht seems to be having about the same shelf life as the first as the team brings in veteran PK RYAN SUCCOP.  Jeff Kerr of CBSSports.com:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have reshuffled their kicking competition with less than two weeks remaining before they open up the regular season against the New Orleans Saints. On Tuesday, the club announced that it has signed veteran kicker Ryan Succop and released Elliott Fry. Succop takes Fry’s place on the roster and will now directly compete with second-year incumbent kicker Matt Gay for the job in 2020.

Succop signed a minimum one-year deal with Tampa Bay, according to Tom Pelissero of the NFL Network, that will pay him just $150,000 in guarantees so there isn’t much financial risk here. The 33-year-old will have to make quick work proving that he’s a better option than Gay, however, as there are just four days remaining before Saturday’s roster cuts.

The veteran has 11 seasons in the NFL under his belt and has netted 82.2% of his field goals throughout his career. Injuries derailed his 2019 campaign but he was able to hit 86.7% of his field goals and 90.3% of his extra points during his last full season in the league in 2018. After coming off of IR in late October last year, Succop appeared in six games before landing back on IR in December. Over that stretch, he hit one of his six field-goal tries and was 24-of-25 on extra points.

“I’m looking for consistency on the gimmes,” head coach Bruce Arians said on Sunday when he was asked about what he’s looking for in a kicker. “We can’t miss extra points. We can’t give away easy points. Kicks inside the 30-yard line should be automatic. If you can make a 56 yarder, that’s great. But, when we drive the ball down to the 10[-yard line] and miss a field goal, there’s nothing that tears a team more apart on offense than, ‘Hey, we just took the ball down the field and we didn’t get any points.’ So, the ‘gimmes’ – who’s the most consistent? If you can do that and still kick 56, 57[-yard field goals], now you’re All-Pro.”

Arians added on Monday that it’s mildly unsettling that the Buccaneers do not have a stable kicker with the regular season approaching, but said: “Whoever we line up out there, we’re going to have confidence in.”

As for Gay, he converted 77.1% of his field goals during his rookie year after Tampa Bay selected him in the fifth round of the 2019 NFL Draft out of Utah. Gay also hit 89.6% of his extra-point attempt.

This tweet from Bill Barnwell:

Ryan Succop will be Tampa’s ninth kicker since the start of 2015.

The league has hit 83.9% of their field goals over that timeframe.

Not a single one of Tampa’s eight kickers have topped that mark. Combined, they’ve hit 73.7% of their kicks.

Patrick Murray                        2017                19-23   82.6%

Connor Barth              2015                23-28   82.1%

Matt Gay                     2019                27-35   77.1%

Cairo Santos               2018                  9-12   75.0%

Chandler Catanzaro    2018                11-15   73.3%

Roberto Aguayo          2016                22-31   71.0%

Nick Folk                     2017                  6-11   54.5%

Kyle Brindza                2015                  6-12   50.0%

No one for multiple seasons.

AFC NORTH

CLEVELAND

EDGE MYLES GARRETT has returned to practice.  Darin Gantt of ProFootballTalk.com:

Browns defensive end Myles Garrett‘s wrist injury  must not be that big of a deal, as he’s bypassed any protective measures.

According to Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Garrett discarded the hard plastic brace athletic trainers fitted him with after one individual rep Tuesday, and came to practice without the brace Wednesday.

Head coach Kevin Stefanski said Garrett was “no worse for the wear.”

Garrett sat out Sunday’s scrimmage because of the problem, and the team described him as “truly day-to-day.”

He also missed some time early in camp with a hamstring injury, but appears to be on track to be fine for the opener against the Ravens.

AFC SOUTH

TENNESSEE

Does PK STEPHEN GOSTKOWSKI have anything left in the tank?  The Titans hope so.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

Tennessee Titans coach Mike Vrabel is adding a former teammate to his roster.

The team announced Thursday it agreed to terms with kicker Stephen Gostkowski.

In a corresponding move, the Titans waived kicker Greg Joseph. Tennessee also has undrafted rookie Tucker McCann on the roster.

Gostkowski lives in Nashville and recently worked out for the Titans.

The 36-year-old kicker spent the past 14 years with the New England Patriots, the first three of those with Vrabel on the squad. During his time in Foxborough, Gostkowski earned three Super Bowl wins, four Pro Bowls and two first-team All-Pro honors.

Gostkowski’s legendary run in New England ended last year during an injury-riddled season that saw him play in just four games — hitting 7-of-8 field goals and 11-of-15 extra points — before going on IR in October. He was officially released in March.

Gostkowski sits fifth all-time with an 87.4 percent field goal conversion rate, including some big pressure-packed postseason kicks. The last few years, however, the aging veteran has become a wee bit wobbly, in part due to injury.

The Titans had a rotating situation at kicker last year before signing Joseph, who made all 18 of his extra-point attempts (including playoffs) and one postseason field goal.

Tennessee hopes importing a veteran in Gostkowski will provide the coaching staff more confidence in the kicker spot this season.

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND

Even the Patriots can make disastrous trades.  Mike Reiss of ESPN.com:

The New England Patriots have informed veteran wide receiver Mohamed Sanu of their intention to release him, a source confirmed to ESPN.

NFL Network first reported the news.

The Patriots acquired Sanu last October from the Atlanta Falcons for a second-round pick, a significant investment that resulted in Sanu playing only nine games for the team.

Still, the move doesn’t come as a surprise due to a combination of finances and overall fit in the Patriots’ receiving corps.

Sanu was due to earn $6.5 million this season, which is a high figure based on his projected role as a No. 4 option who doesn’t contribute on special teams.

Furthermore, because the Patriots are locked in with Julian Edelman and 2019 first-round pick N’Keal Harry as two of their top receivers — giving them one of the slower top tandems in the NFL — their ideal third receiver would be someone with speed.

That isn’t Sanu’s specialty, as he’s more of a crafty inside receiver who plays with a physical edge. Free-agent signing Damiere Byrd, a former track star in high school who also competed at South Carolina, is a top candidate to fill that role.

In 2019, Sanu got off to a fast start in New England, catching 10 passes for 81 yards and a touchdown in his second game, before he sprained his ankle returning a punt in his next game. That seemed to slow him down the rest of the season, and he underwent offseason surgery.

As for the second-round pick that the Patriots traded for Sanu, the Falcons turned around and traded it to the Baltimore Ravens in a deal that landed them tight end Hayden Hurst.

THIS AND THAT

THE BIG TEN

We’ll try to keep this short, as you may or may not be tired of this subject, but on Wednesday a judge in Lancaster County, Nebraska was unsatisfied with the two “sworn statements” produced by the Big Ten to satisfy the Cornhusker parents in their quest for discovery.  The Big Ten, as you may remember, had its attorneys claim that sunlight on their secret process would produce “incredible” harm if ever to be revealed to the public.

The plaintiffs got expedited discovery on some of their request, but Judge Susan Strong so far is allowing the Big Ten to keep the names of their “medical experts” a secret, as well as who advocated what studies in formulating the shutdown command.

That said, Clay Travis is hearing that, contra to the August 18 statement by Commissioner Kevin Warren, there will be a re-visiting of the shutdown order in a Friday conference call.

Several websites that cover Big Ten programs are reporting that the conference’s chancellors and presidents are slated to have a re-vote this week to potentially reverse the decision and play football this Fall:

1) Dave Biddle of Bucknuts, the 247 site for Ohio State (subscription required and recommended), first reported that the Big Ten’s presidents and chancellors have “tentatively” agreed to revote on either Friday or Saturday.

2) Kevin Noon of Buckeye Grove, the Rivals site for Ohio State (subscription required and recommended), confirmed the Bucknuts report, adding: “There is no guarantee as to how this vote will go but it is thought that a vote to resume the season would mean a mid-October start, potentially October 10th.”

3) Sean Callahan of HuskerOnline, the Rivals site for Nebraska (subscription required and recommended), added the following: “A behind the scenes vote count is being taken, and if there is enough support to bring it to a vote, it will happen. If they know they won’t get the 9 votes from the Presidents/Chancellors on Friday there won’t be a revote. So if a vote does happen this week, it means they already know they have the support to overturn this. Stay tuned. If that happens, camp could open as soon as Saturday. It sounds like there are a few teams that just don’t want to play. So you could have three or four teams sit it out and not play if the vote gets overturned.”

Look, this is all convoluted. And yes, obviously these three reporters are immersed in two of the three programs (Iowa being the third) who want football season the most in the conference. They would need to flip six presidents or chancellors from Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, Rutgers, and Illinois.

My two cents is this: The Big Ten should have a season with the teams that want to play, and allow the teams that do not want to play to opt out. This is similar to the idea that players who are risk averse or just feel that it is in their best personal interests to opt out should be able to do so without judgment.

So maybe a true Big Ten again!

One potential problem – would a timid school that did not compete still expect its full share from the Big Ten TV deals earned by the other schools?

FANTASY NEWS YOU CAN USE

From Matthew Berry of ESPN.com:

10 items of preseason buzz I’m buying

1. That Jets RB Le’Veon Bell looks like he’s lost a step and is headed for more of a timeshare/reduced workload than folks believe, and that Jets TE Chris Herndon is going to be a target monster for QB Sam Darnold and should be moving up draft boards. Herndon is one of my favorite late-round tight ends this year.

2. That Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins wants a new contract and that his continued absence from Arizona camp isn’t about “keeping him fresh” for the regular season but more about contract concerns and Hopkins wanting a new deal, which is no secret. He’s insanely talented, we all know that, but considering his WR2(!) ADP, that’s a concern, since he hasn’t had a ton of time to get on the same page with Kyler Murray.

3. That Buccaneers WR Scotty Miller has carved out a nice role for himself and will be another fantasy-relevant piece behind the big names in a loaded Bucs offense.

4. That rookie RB J.K. Dobbins will have a role in the Ravens’ backfield, even if Mark Ingram is healthy. And if anything happens to Ingram, Dobbins would be a league winner.

5. That second-year Colts WR Parris Campbell is healthy and looking like the star he was at Ohio State. That he will be a post-hype sleeper for a very good Colts offense.

6. That the Jaguars will have a pass-happy and fantasy-friendly offense this year. And that, behind WR DJ Chark, two camp standouts will have much more fantasy-relevant roles than their current ADP suggests: WR Laviska Shenault and TE Tyler Eifert.

7. That if you are taking a flier on Washington’s backfield, that flier should be on RB Antonio Gibson.

8. That based on health and camp reports, Giants WR Sterling Shepard is being vastly undervalued.

9. That those in deep leagues need to know the name of Cardinals TE Dan Arnold, who has continued his great chemistry from the end of last year with QB Kyler Murray in practice. And that RB Chase Edmonds needs to be one of the first “backup” running backs off the board in drafts.

10. That Darrel Williams is the Chiefs RB you want if you are looking for insurance behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire. A reminder that in the three games with 10-plus touches last year, Williams averaged 15.6 fantasy points per game.

My 10 favorite upside running backs to draft going in the 12th round or later on ESPN.com (in order they are being drafted)

1. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: RB 35, 111.4 overall)

2. Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams (ADP RB 37, 118.7 overall)

3. Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills (ADP RB 39, 124.9 overall)

4. Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings (ADP RB 43, 141 overall)

5. Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys (ADP RB 44, 149.4 overall)

6. Antonio Gibson, Washington (ADP RB 45, 150.8 overall)

7. Boston Scott, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP RB 51, 164.1 overall)

8. Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals (ADP RB 54, 166.9 overall)

9. Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs (undrafted)

10. Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers (undrafted)

My 10 “Chicken” players

All talented players, all ranked appropriately, but just when I’ve been drafting, something about them gives me pause, and when it comes to the point where they should be picked in PPR, I tend to go with a different but similarly ranked player.

1. Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb. The argument for Chubb is he’s a very talented back and Cleveland should be a much better offense this year with an improved offensive line. I mean, under Kevin Stefanski last year, Dalvin Cook led the NFL in goal-to-go carries. The concern is … he was just RB23 on a PPG basis once Kareem Hunt showed up last year and that was with Hunt averaging just 5.4 carries a game. I’m pretty sure Stefanski isn’t going to show up and say “You know what this offense needs? LESS Kareem Hunt.” Add in some positive regression for Odell Beckham Jr. in the touchdown department and I’m a little nervous in full PPR leagues.

2. Arizona Cardinals RB Kenyan Drake. Three previous coaching staffs — Alabama when he was in college and two different regimes in Miami — refused to make him a feature back for some reason.

3. Detroit Lions RB D’Andre Swift. Talented player who is likely to be in a committee for a team that was bottom 12 in the NFL last year in rush percentage, red zone rush percentage, RB target share and yards per rush before first contact.

4. Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers.

5. Buffalo Bills RB Devin Singletary. Singletary played in every game from Week 7 through 16 last season and was given just 31.6% of the Buffalo goal-to-go carries. Worried that QB Josh Allen and RB Zack Moss take much of the scoring away on a team that isn’t likely to have an explosive offense. Also worried that Moss is #goodatfootball.

6. New Orleans Saints WR Emmanuel Sanders. A very good real life player and a nice signing for New Orleans. But last season Saints WRs not named Michael Thomas combined for just 56 receptions.

7. Denver Broncos WR Courtland Sutton.. Are we sure QB Drew Lock is going to be good? Are we sure Sutton will get enough targets with TE Noah Fant, RB Melvin Gordon and WR Jerry Jeudy there? Are we sure he’s better than WR A.J. Brown, WR Calvin Ridley, WR Tyler Lockett and the Rams guys (WRs Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp)? Because that’s where you’ll have to draft him this year.

8. Miami Dolphins WR DeVante Parker. Every year the fantasy industry has been wrong on him. His first four years we all loved him as a sleeper and he was merely asleep. Last year no one liked him and he exploded.

9. New York Giants TE Evan Engram. Love the player, hate the health concerns.

10. New Orleans Saints TE Jared Cook. He makes me nervous every year.

List 5: 10 “what if” scenarios to consider

Conventional fantasy football “wisdom” assumes certain things will happen. But what if it doesn’t go the way everyone thinks? What if …

1. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll actually “#LetsRussCook?”

2. Chargers QB Tyrod Taylor keeps the starting job all season?

3. Vikings RB Dalvin Cook does actually hold out all year?

4. Titans RB Derrick Henry gets involved in the passing game in a real way?

5. Rams coach Sean McVay bails on the running back by committee and makes either Cam Akers or Darrell Henderson THE GUY?

6. 49ers WR Deebo Samuel isn’t THAT hurt?

7. Texans WR Will Fuller stays healthy all year?

8. Bengals WR A.J. Green is, you know, A.J. GREEN?

9. Rams TE Tyler Higbee really is the guy he was from Week 13 on who was the eighth-best player in all of fantasy football, scoring 107.2 points (Saints WR Michael Thomas scored 111.3 in that stretch)?

10. Ravens TE Mark Andrews, who got 98 targets in 15 games last year, also gets departed TE Hayden Hurst’s 39 targets from last year to have 137 targets, comparable to the 134 targets Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce got last year?

10 bold predictions for the 2020 fantasy season

Bold obviously means unlikely to happen but within the realm of possibility. The idea here is not to nail them but rather to give you some thoughts on players I feel strongly about this year.

1. Dak Prescott finishes as the No. 1 QB in fantasy.

My thinking: The second-best QB last year in total points and the QB with the most rushing touchdowns since he came into the NFL, he’s playing for a new deal in a fantasy-friendly offense, and he has three big-play wide receivers in Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb.

2. Buccaneers QB Tom Brady has the best statistical year of his career, which means doing better than in 2007 when he threw for 4,806 yards and 50 touchdowns.

My thinking: With arguably a better supporting cast than even 2007, a fantasy-friendly, offensive-minded coach, and defensive rules that make it much harder to defend the pass, Brady is set up for success. Determined to prove everyone wrong, he wants a massive season and will stay in to throw even in blowouts, and when they are in close he will check out of run plays for cheap touchdowns as well.

3. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, currently going as QB 16, finishes the year as a top five fantasy QB.

My thinking: Last time we saw him, in 2018, he was. The third-best QB in fantasy two years ago, this will be a pass-heavy offense with a lot of talented pass-catchers and a fully healthy Big Ben.

4. Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew, currently being drafted as QB 24 (and he’s being drafted in only 10% of ESPN leagues), finishes the year as a top 12 fantasy QB.

My thinking: Bad team that will need to throw a ton, Minshew is more mobile than he gets credit for. So he’ll add value with his legs and a pass-first, fantasy-friendly system. Jay Gruden (the Jaguars’ new offensive coordinator) has been an OC or head coach for eight full seasons. He has had a top 13 fantasy QB in five of them, with the other three being Andy Dalton’s rookie year and the two years in Washington he had to use at least three different QBs.

5. Chargers RB Austin Ekeler, currently being drafted as RB13, in the third round, finishes the year as a top three fantasy RB.

My thinking: The second-best RB in fantasy for the four weeks Melvin Gordon was holding out last year, Ekeler returns to his heavy-usage ways all season long. The obvious receiving touchdown regression is made up for with Ekeler getting a large share of Gordon’s rushing scores (nine total TDs in 12 games last year) and an increase in volume.

6. Lions WR Marvin Jones Jr. (ADP: WR36, 98.3 overall) outscores fellow Lions WR Kenny Golladay (ADP: WR8, 29.4 overall).

My thinking: The last six games with Stafford (Weeks 3-9):

Golladay: 16.5 PPG, 7.2 targets per game (53.5% catch rate), 9 red zone targets

Jones: 18.8 PPG, 8 targets per game (68.8% catch rate), 10 red zone targets

7. Vikings WR Adam Thielen, currently being drafted in the fourth round, finishes as the No. 1 WR in fantasy.

My thinking: If he can just stay healthy. Over the past three years, when Stefon Diggs was off the field, Thielen was targeted on 25% of his routes. For his career, when seeing at least nine targets, he averages 22.8 fantasy points per game. Last year, Michael Thomas was WR1 averaging 23.4.

8. Cowboys WR Michael Gallup (ADP: WR32, 87.6 overall) outscores fellow Cowboys WR Amari Cooper (ADP: WR10, 32.6 overall).

My thinking: He almost did it last year on a per-game basis.

Cooper per game in 2019: 4.9 catches, 7.4 targets, 74.3 yards, 0.5 TDs, 15.4 FP

Gallup per game in 2019: 4.7 catches, 8.1 targets, 79.1 yards, 0.43 TDs, 15.2 FP

Now in his third year in the NFL, Gallup takes another huge step forward.

9. Marquise Brown, currently going as WR30 in the ninth round on ESPN, finishes the year as a top 10 WR.

My thinking: The No. 1 WR in one of the best offenses in the NFL, in his six games with five-plus targets last year he averaged 15.5 points per game. I expect him to get more targets this year. I expect him to improve in his second year in the NFL. And last year, WR 10 averaged 15.93 PPG.

10. Mike Gesicki, currently going as TE15, finishes the year as a top five TE.

My thinking: The eighth-best TE in fantasy on a a PPG basis from Week 9 on last year, Gesicki enters his second year in the league as a talented player on what probably will be a pass-heavy team that has already seen two pass-catchers opt out for the season and has another (Preston Williams) coming back from a major surgery. I expect him to take a big leap forward this year.