Scott Thompson of FoxNews.com on increased security in the largest city in the Americas.

Security has ramped up ahead of the NFL’s first-ever game in Brazil after players from the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers voiced concerns about safety in São Paulo, according to ESPN.

The two NFC foes will battle in Week 1 at Arena Corinthians in São Paulo, marking the first NFL game played in South America.

While the NFL continues its global reach, players like Eagles star receiver A.J. Brown have noted a lot of “don’t do’s” have been passed down to those heading there.

“We had a meeting with a whole bunch of ‘don’t do’s,’” Brown told reporters, via ESPN. “So, I’m just trying to go down there, win a football game and come back home.”

His Eagles teammate, top cornerback Darius Slay Jr., echoed Brown’s comments on his “Big Play Slay” podcast, adding that players are being told to stay put and not walk the streets.

“Week 1, I’m looking forward to it, I can’t wait. But man, I do not want to go to Brazil. You want to know why? I’m here to tell you why,” Slay explained. “They already told us not to leave the hotel. They told us we can’t do too much going on because the crime rate is crazy.”

Slay even questioned why the NFL would want a game in Brazil in the first place, considering the safety concerns.

“I’m like, ‘NFL, why y’all wanna send us somewhere where the crime rate is this high and we out the country?’ You know, the first thing people are thinking is like some terror could possibly happen,” he said. “I told my family do not come down there because I’m not going to be nowhere to be found. I’m going to be in the hotel chilling, minding my business, playing my game after a long 9½-hour flight.”

Slay later apologized for his comments, saying he was sorry if he offended anyone via social media.

But Slay’s concerns are legitimate because he isn’t the only one voicing them. And the São Paulo state government has reacted accordingly.

“To guarantee the safety of the players, the military police will reinforce the number of personnel upon arrival of the delegations at the Guarulhos Airport and escort the teams to their hotels, training sites and the stadium,” it said in a statement, via ESPN.

This isn’t the first time the NFL has had games in locations where safety concerns were brought up, including a stop in Mexico, where games have been played since 2005.

Sao Paulo has nearly 4 million more people than New York.

LARGEST CITIES IN THE AMERICAS

1          São Paulo                   Brazil                          12,141,890

2          Lima                           Peru                              9,674,755

3          Mexico City                Mexico                           9,209,944

4          New York                   United States                8,398,748

5          Bogotá                       Colombia                       8,064,000

It’s a little closer proportionally if you go Metro Areas:

LARGEST METROPOLITAN AREAS IN THE AMERICAS

1          São Paulo       Brazil              22,001,281

2          Mexico City     Mexico           21,804,515

3          New York        United States 19,498,249

4          Buenos Aires  Argentina        13,985,794

5          Rio de Janeiro Brazil              13,191,031

The Commish says Brazil is just the beginning for the NFL’s International forays:  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Last year NFL owners approved playing up to eight international games a year, but the league isn’t stopping there.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said in an interview with Pat McAfee that the league expects to continue opening new international markets and putting more games in the countries where the NFL is growing its fan base.

“We want the world to know we’re coming, that we’re bringing football,” Goodell said. “Our clubs have agreed to play up to eight regular-season games. We have expectations that will go well beyond that. We think we’ll be seven next year, we’re already going to Spain next year, we’ll be back in Mexico I hope by next year, so we’re really excited where the future is for us on an international basis.”

The NFL will play its first game in Brazil on Friday night, and bringing a game to at least one new country a year seems to be the plan, along with multiple games every year in the United Kingdom. Goodell says the league sees no sign of international interest slowing down.

“Every time we’ve done this,” Goodell said, “they want more.”

Counting the Jaguars “home” game in London, the NFL may stage nine international games in 2025.

Madrid, Spain will certainly get one.

Australia and Ireland are also being bandied about.

– – –

CBSSports.com has the starting Super Bowl odds from 1 (KC) to 32 (NE):

2024 Super Bowl odds

Kansas City Chiefs                  +575

San Francisco 49ers               +625

Baltimore Ravens                    +900

Detroit Lions                          +1000

Philadelphia Eagles               +1300

Cincinnati Bengals                 +1300

Houston Texans                     +1300

New York Jets                        +1700

Buffalo Bills                            +1700

Green Bay Packers               +1700

Dallas Cowboys                     +1800

Miami Dolphins                      +2500

Los Angeles Rams                 +2500

Atlanta Falcons                      +2800

Los Angeles Chargers            +3500

Chicago Bears                        +3500

Cleveland Browns                 +4000

Pittsburgh Steelers                 +4500

Jacksonville Jaguars              +4500

Las Vegas Raiders                 +6000

Indianapolis Colts                   +6000

Seattle Seahawks                  +8000

Minnesota Vikings                  +8000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers         +9000

New Orleans Saints             +10000

Arizona Cardinals                 +12500

Washington Commanders   +15000

Tennessee Titans                 +15000

Denver Broncos                    +15000

New York Giants                   +20000

Carolina Panthers                  +20000

New England Patriots           +27500

The world turned upside down with the Lions at #4 and the Patriots at #32.

Who do you like in the 1500 to 3000 range?   Dallas?  The Rams?

What about the longer odds?  The Buccaneers, an Elite Eight team a year ago, are behind the Raiders and Sam Darnold Vikings?

DALLAS

Charles McDonald of YahooSports.com thinks the Cowboys are, amazingly, being overlooked as the 2024 season dawns:

Dallas might be OK, at least for this season

Once again, the Cowboys have been the story of the offseason. They dragged their feet on an extension for superstar wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, but eventually rewarded him with the market rate contract extension that he was looking for. With the contracts for Dak Prescott and Micah Parsons apparently coming after the season, the Cowboys’ roster is set for 2024. Now that the dust has settled and the financial hysterics can be calmed for the regular season, the Cowboys can set their focus on getting back to the playoffs (and actually winning a game this time).

Let’s be real: this is still a damn good roster that’s capable of at least winning the NFC East.

Prescott, Lamb and Parsons are an elite trio for the Cowboys to build around. Those three alone would make them a tough out in just about every game. Two of the truly elite players at their position in Lamb and Parsons, while Prescott just finished a season that had him second in MVP votes. Outside of them, this team has just enough depth to win a whole lot of games, especially with the encouraging performance from their rookie offensive linemen during the preseason.

If left tackle Tyler Guyton and center Cooper Beebe can come out the gate and be just average, this team should have one of the best offenses in the league again. Third-year pro Tyler Smith and future Hall of Famer Zack Martin are already entrenched as two of the best guards in the league. Anything they can get from their rookie offensive linemen is just gravy. They’ll need this group to be strong with a shaky running back room behind them, but quarterback, offensive line and Lamb will give the Cowboys a formidable offense on their own.

The defense is an interesting dilemma. Coordinator Mike Zimmer is in town to replace Dan Quinn after he was hired to run the Commanders, which might be an upgrade. Zimmer has been known as one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL this century, but he’s been out of the league for a couple years following his firing as head coach of the Vikings. If he still has the juice as a play-caller, Dallas’ defense could actually be a bit better than a year ago.

Getting Trevon Diggs back would be a great boost to a defense that already had a strong cornerback break out last season in DaRon Bland, though Bland is out 6-8 weeks due to injury to start this one.

At least for 2024, everything should be fine in Dallas. Where it gets shaky is beyond that. Lamb is locked in for the foreseeable future, but Prescott is slated to become an unrestricted free agent with a “no tag” clause, meaning there’s nothing the Cowboys can do to prevent him from hitting free agency. That’s about to be a bag and half, but that’s a problem for a later date. For now, the Cowboys’ plan of being a competitive team in 2024 looks like a reasonable feat.

WASHINGTON

Rael Enteen is now a suspended Commanders VP after he gets caught on a hidden camera by O’Keefe Media Group.  John Keim of ESPN.com:

The Washington Commanders have suspended an employee who made comments about the team’s players being anti-gay, accused Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones of being racist and anti-gay and called NFL commissioner Roger Goodell a “$50 million puppet.”

The team said it has suspended its vice president of content, Rael Enteen, who has been with the organization for four years, for comments he made to an undercover reporter for the O’Keefe Media Group.

According to a social media video from the media group, Enteen had met the reporter on the dating app Hinge and met with her twice at local restaurants. According to James Keefe, the CEO of the O’Keefe Media Group, the interviews took place at a restaurant in Washington, D.C., in June.

“The language used in the video runs counter to our values at the Commanders organization,” a team spokesperson said in a statement. “We have suspended the employee pending an investigation and will reserve further comment at this time.”

He told the undercover reporter that, “over 50% of our roster is white religious, and God says, ‘F— the gays.’ Their interpretation. I don’t buy any of that. Another big chunk is low-income African Americans that comes from a community that is inherently very homophobic.”

On the video, Enteen also said some players are “dumb as hell” and said some who were smart don’t stay that way after getting hit in the head too many times. He also said those who “get their heads knocked around a few times” are more susceptible to conspiracy theories.

Enteen also said, “I don’t think the commissioner of the NFL hates gay people, hates black people. Jerry Jones, who really runs the NFL, I think he hates gay people, black people.”

Enteen, who was with the New York Jets for two years before coming to Washington, called the league’s social justice initiatives “performative.”

“It’s not done out of the goodness of their heart,” he said. “It’s done because George Floyd changed the game … It’s to make as much money as possible. The NFL cares about the bottom line, like any corporation, above all else.”

Enteen said because the league makes so much money, “they can faux prioritize DEI for the sake of good publicity.”

Enteen told the undercover reporter that “most of the fans are high-school-educated alcoholics” and called them “mouth breathers.”

Enteen also told the reporter, whose name was not revealed and who can only be heard on the video, that his job is to sell hope. Three years ago, there were videos of pipes leaking. Fans said it smelled like sewage, but Enteen said he tweeted out that it was just water.

“That,” he said, “is state-run media.”

We have to wonder what would make the O’Keefe people target Enteen in the first place?

SAN FRANCISCO

With the case provoking outrage, the attorney of the teen who shot WR RICKY PEARSALL while trying to steal his watch says he is sorry and filled with “genuine remorse.”

The teen’s attorney, Deputy Public Defender Bob Dunlap, told reporters after the hearing that he is very sorry about what happened.

“He’s genuinely very sorry that this did happen, as is his family, and I can say on their behalf, as well as on my own behalf, our thoughts go out to the Pearsall family and Mr. Pearsall himself. So there is genuine, genuine remorse in that regard,” Dunlap said. “He is a young boy.”

A probation officer recommended the teen stay in custody and be transferred to his home county of San Joaquin, where he has another matter pending. But Superior Court Judge Roger C. Chan said the teen will stay in San Francisco custody.

Family members of both the teen and Pearsall were in the room Wednesday, Chan said.

LAS VEGAS

WR DAVANTE ADAMS once again has to push back against a report that he’s unhappy in Vegas, this from former NFL receiver DeSean Jackson.  Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com:

Las Vegas Raiders receiver Davante Adams took exception to former NFL wideout DeSean Jackson’s recent claims that Adams was not “happy” in Las Vegas.

“At the end of the day, the facts are the facts and that is not a fact,” Adams said Wednesday as the Raiders prepared for their season opener at the Los Angeles Chargers.

“I’ve probably spoken to DeSean Jackson maybe three or four times in my life, and I never had a conversation with him [about this], ever. And I put that on my kids. I’ve never spoken to him about anything.”

Adams said the only person with whom he shares feelings is his wife.

“And she ain’t out there leaking anything, and dropping stuff like that in the media,” he said.

“If it ain’t from the horse’s mouth, it’s probably bulls—.”

Jackson, who played for the Raiders briefly in 2021, appeared on the “The Herd with Colin Cowherd” on Aug. 27 and was asked about Adams, whose appearance on the Netflix series “Receiver” often showed a frustrated player.

Combine that with Adams missing time in OTAs and training camp, and not playing in the exhibition season — he returned home to be with his wife for the birth of their son — and Jackson offered his opinion.

“I mean, you’ve got Gardner Minshew, that’s actually been named the starting quarterback this year,” Jackson said. “This year is going to be tough. They don’t have the quarterback that they want. I know they wanted to get a quarterback in that draft, and they couldn’t get their guy. So, obviously, they kind of defaulted to who they have.

“This one’s tough because me and Davante, we’ve talked and man, I hate to do it, I don’t want to be the guy that’s like, ‘Oh, DJax said this and said that.’ But at the end of the day, he is unhappy. I mean, you go from Aaron Rodgers, then you come to the Las Vegas Raiders and now not only Jimmy G [Garoppolo], you had your boy [Derek] Carr. It didn’t really work out … from the Fresno State days, right? You think they would come back and work everything out and it just quite didn’t work out. So now, I just don’t think he’s really that happy there.”

Adams said he nearly put out a video of himself denying Jackson’s claims but did not want to give the situation any “attention” before being asked about it Wednesday.

“But in terms of me being upset or not being happy in this organization, it’s just a bunch of BS that’s just meant to throw everybody off and get clickbait,” Adams said. “Everybody wants to see what Davante Adams got to say, and, you know, he’s pissed off in Vegas. If I was pissed off, I mean, I wouldn’t be here right now.

“I don’t think that y’all standing in front of me [are] getting the vibe that I want to leave this place. And if you do, then you’re just feeding into the bulls— that they’re feeding you all out there. And that’s not reality.”

– – –

As you calculate where the 2024 Raiders might end up, remember they have added DT CHRISTIAN WILKINS to go with DE MAXX CROSBY.  Coach Antonio Pierce has not forgotten.  Grant Gordon of NFL.com:

A tattooed madman whose motor never ceases, defensive end Maxx Crosby is a talent of the elite and distinct variety.

Most fortunately for Las Vegas Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce, he believes he has more than one Maxx Crosby on his roster.

Las Vegas’ biggest free-agent get, Christian Wilkins, is the defensive tackle version of Mad Maxx, according to their coach.

“It’s Maxx Crosby inside,” Pierce said Wednesday when asked what he sees in Wilkins. “Maxx shows up at 6 a.m., Christian’s here at 6. Maxx leaves at 5, he’s here at 5. You watch them practice, it’s a thing of beauty when you have two of your best players work as hard as anyone on the team. But more importantly, he’s a perfectionist.”

As Pierce begins the newest Silver and Black epoch with his first season as the team’s full-time head coach, he’s looking to set a standard and clearly believes his dynamic D-line duo will be standard-bearers.

After Pierce took over for Josh McDaniels at the midpoint of the 2023 season, the Raiders’ calling card became their defense. Only the eventual Super Bowl-champion Kansas City Chiefs scored more than 23 points against the Raiders during Pierce’s nine games as the interim head coach.

Crosby led the way, the three-time Pro Bowler playing through injury and emerging as one of the top 10 players in the league in the eyes of his NFL brethren.

Bolstering the Raiders defense and providing Crosby with another daunting presence to aid him on the defensive line was paramount this offseason. Enter Wilkins, a 2019 first-round pick of the Miami Dolphins coming off a career-high nine-sack season.

The 28-year-old Wilkins landed a massive four-year, $110 million deal because of his talent and production, but Pierce lauds his intangibles.

“He wants to be the best; he’s striving to be the best,” Pierce said. “No different than a lot of our players on the team, but what I love about him is the teammate. He’s a great teammate. He’s a good person. You see him bring over a lot of these young defensive tackles, work with them on the side. Not selfish at all; he wants to win.”

Pierce very much wants to win, too, and he believes a Crosby-Wilkins combination up front will be pivotal in making that happen.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

QB JUSTIN HERBERT says his foot injury is in the past.  Kris Rhim of ESPN.com:

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who was in a walking boot for two weeks of training camp with a plantar fascia injury to his right foot, said Wednesday that his foot is back to 100 percent.

Herbert said he isn’t wearing any special kind of cleat or sole to support his foot and that there wasn’t a play or moment that sparked the injury.

“It was just one of those things that I went in; it was getting a little sore, and I talked to [the training staff] about it,” Herbert said. “I think over the past couple weeks of being out, I did my best to pick up as much as I could in meetings, be out there in walk-throughs and do everything I could to not miss a rep. It’s definitely tough.”

Herbert said managing the injury throughout the season is “not really on my mind right now.” Instead, he is hopeful that the work he has done with the Chargers’ athletic trainers will ensure that the injury won’t linger.

“As long as we’re out in front of it, I think we’ll be all right,” Herbert said.

The Chargers have a vastly different offense from last season, with new starters at wide receiver, tight end and running back. The team’s receiving corps, specifically, is the most inexperienced of the team, with just one player who has 1,000 yards in a season — DJ Chark Jr. when he was with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2019. Chark could miss Sunday’s season opener against the visiting Las Vegas Raiders, as he hasn’t practiced yet this week with a hip injury.

“That’s kind of the tough part about missing that time is you’re not getting those reps with those guys, and they’re all new,” Herbert said. “But when you miss that, you’ve got to find ways to — whether it’s watching the film and talking with them or whether it’s going out after practice and throwing a couple reps.”

The Chargers will rely on wideouts Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey if Chark cannot go. When Herbert returned to practice, Johnston had one of his best weeks of camp, catching multiple passes each day.

“He’s a playmaker,” Herbert said of Johnston. “He’s one of those guys you have to find ways to get him the ball, and when you do, special things happen. And so a large, large part of our offense is just find ways to get him the ball

CINCINNATI

More mysterious optimism about WR Ja’MARR CHASE and his murky practice availability.  Ben Baby of ESPSPN.com:

The reference was subtle — but notable.

Even though Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase hit the practice field on Wednesday as the team prepared for Sunday’s season opener against the New England Patriots (1 p.m. ET, CBS), quarterback Joe Burrow said it wasn’t the most extensive throwing session he’s had with his longtime friend since the end of last season.

What was?

A few workdays during the offseason, Burrow said. And when asked at his locker if that meant some private throwing sessions with Chase, Burrow turned around and flashed a grin.

“You take it how you want it,” he added with a laugh.

While just about everything surrounding Chase remains uncertain heading into Week 1, one thing isn’t: the belief that should Chase decide he’s available for the season opener, he will be physically ready to go.

Between the work in the offseason and the prep that Chase has had in spite of the lack of practices, he wouldn’t miss a step if he played, according to his coaches and teammates.

“He looks fast and strong like he always does,” Burrow said on Wednesday. “I know he’s been doing what he needs to do to stay ready if he needs to be ready.

“I’m confident that if he does go out there on Sunday then he’ll be the Ja’Marr we all know.”

Officially, he was limited in practice with a rest designation, but the more accurate explanation is Chase made a positive step after missing all of training camp amid a contract dispute.

But while he wasn’t practicing, Cincinnati has felt good about the prep work behind the scenes. In addition to participating in walkthroughs, Chase has earned praise for what he’s done away from the field as he gets ready for the season.

BUFFALO

WR SHELTON DIGGS is gone, but QB JOSH ALLEN is relishing incoming WR KEON COLEMAN.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman is currently listed as a second-stringer on the Bills’ depth chart, but the second-round pick is expected to have a significant role in the team’s offense this season.

The departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis have opened the door for others to build a connection with quarterback Josh Allen and Allen told Adam Schein of Mad Dog Sports Radio that Coleman’s bid to do that is centered on a different set of skills than the Bills have employed in recent seasons.

“He’s going to be an exciting player for us,” Allen said. “He’s got a different skill set than maybe what I’m used to. I don’t know if I’ve had the type of skill set that he brings to the table as an option before. His ability to go jump and catch back shoulder balls, be strong at the point of the catch. He takes blocking in the run game with a lot of pride.”

Allen acknowledged that “it’s not gonna be perfect right away” because the rookie will have to adjust to life at the professional level, but he and the Bills will roll the dice on the upside they believe Coleman brings to their offense.

THIS AND THAT

LONGER QB PRODUCTIVITY?

Troy Aikman wishes he played today, where the amount of QBs is muted by rules changes.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

When Troy Aikman retired as quarterback of the Cowboys after the 2000 season, he was shell of his former self, with persistent back injuries that had him looking like an old man on the field. He was 34 years old.

Aikman says that with today’s rules protecting quarterbacks, he never would have suffered those back injuries and would have played much longer, and he named protecting the quarterback as the biggest change to the game from the days when he was playing.

“I would probably say the protection on the quarterback,” Aikman told Kevin Clark on This Is Football. “I played 12 years. I would’ve played much longer, and I think that the norm going forward is going to be, we’re going to see quarterbacks playing up until they’re 40 years old and beyond. I think if anyone retires before they’re 40 it’s gonna be a little bit surprising.”

Aikman said today’s quarterbacks wouldn’t believe some of the hits he and his contemporaries had to endure.

“Quarterbacks just aren’t taking the punishment we took when I played,” Aikman said. “Any time a quarterback does get hit they’re immediately looking for a flag. I should put together a highlight reel of the worst hits that I took, and you would think these players would probably be banned from the NFL, and there wasn’t even a penalty on the play. It’s changed a lot, for sure.

AFC EXPECTATIONS FROM NFL INSIDERS

Mike Sando of The Athletic has a gaggle of NFL execs on speed dial – and they provide him a 1 to 16 ranking of each conference, first the AFC

With the 2024 NFL regular season finally near, I’ve checked in with five team executives for a snapshot of their expectations for all 32 teams.

The execs, whose backgrounds range from personnel evaluation to contracts/salary cap and analytics/strategy, ranked every team in each conference on condition of anonymity for competitive reasons. They also offered explanations, some of which are included below.

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Votes: 1-1-2-1-1 | Avg: 1.2 | Median: 1

The two-spot gap in average vote between the top-ranked Chiefs (1.2) and second-ranked Ravens (3.2) is the largest gap between any of the top seven teams.

“I wanted to regress K.C. because losing L’Jarius Sneed is a factor, but they got so much better at receiver speed-wise with (Xavier) Worthy and Hollywood (Marquise Brown),” one exec said. “Whatever they regress defensively, they will make up for offensively.”

The average votes for each team suggest execs see Kansas City alone at the top, followed by the Ravens, Bengals and Texans in one group, followed by the Bills, Jets and Dolphins in the next group. There’s then a relatively big drop to the Jaguars.

Only the gap between the No. 10 Cleveland Browns (9.8) and No. 11 Denver Broncos (12.4) is larger than the gap between the Chiefs and Ravens within the AFC.

2. Baltimore Ravens

Votes: 2-2-7-3-2 | Avg.: 3.2 | Median: 2

The outlier vote on Baltimore (seventh in the AFC) reflected concerns that the Ravens would miss defensive coaches Mike Macdonald (new head coach for Seattle) and Anthony Weaver (new defensive coordinator for Miami).

“They are going to be interesting,” this voter said. “Lamar (Jackson) wasn’t there for the (voluntary) offseason work. He missed the start of camp. Not to say that is critical, but what is his mindset, and what is he going to look like? It’s hard to say coaching matters and they are well-coached, and then say the fifth coach on defense is just as good as the guys who left.”

The Ravens have hired and developed coaches arguably better than any team in the league.

“I expect some decline on defense without Macdonald, but I do think the offense should take a leap with (Mark) Andrews back healthy, with Derrick Henry there and with Lamar in his second year of the (Todd) Monken system,” another exec said.

3. Cincinnati Bengals

Votes: 6-6-1-2-3 | Avg.: 3.6 | Median: 3

How much you’re willing to bet on Joe Burrow being healthy informs how high you’re willing to rank the Bengals.

“Someone has to give Kansas City a run for their money,” the voter ranking Cincy first said. “I don’t think it’s Buffalo because of the lack of offensive firepower and skill. I don’t think it’s Miami because I don’t believe in the quarterback. So, who is it? I have Houston rising up to No. 3, and I have Cincinnati rising to 1. The Jets are the enigma.”

This voter thought the Bengals would re-sign Ja’Marr Chase and become an “offensive juggernaut” with Burrow back to health. But he also called the Bengals a “house of cards” that could collapse, same as they did last year.

“The whole team rides with Burrow,” this voter said.

The voters ranking Cincinnati sixth cited offensive coordinator Brian Callahan’s departure, Burrow’s durability, the running back situation and questionable return on investment for the offensive line as top concerns.

“Then again, the key pieces are all there: Lou Anarumo, Zac Taylor, Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Trey Hendrickson,” one of them said. “That is a nice, comforting security blanket.”

4. Houston Texans

Votes: 5-3-3-4-4 | Avg.: 3.8 | Median: 4

There was less statistical variance among votes for the Texans than for any team but Kansas City in the AFC. No one bet on Houston unseating the Chiefs, but no one projected a big fall, either.

“I was ready to doubt them,” one exec said, “but when you really go through their roster, they are stacked.”

Outsized expectations could be one concern. Handling success could be another. Introducing Stefon Diggs into the equation carries some risk, although one voter predicted Stroud would not back down from confronting and “putting in his place” any receiver complaining about targets.

“Too many weapons on offense, the tackles are really good, Joe Mixon is a great addition at running back, and the pieces they have up front on defense, like Danielle Hunter, make this a good team (beyond Stroud),” this voter said.

5. Buffalo Bills

Votes: 4-4-4-8-6 | Avg.: 5.2 | Median: 4

The Bills rank this high for one reason.

“It’s hard to count them out just because of Josh Allen,” the exec ranking Buffalo sixth in the conference said.

It’s similarly difficult to rank Buffalo much higher because the team is in transition around Allen. There is less established weaponry, a first-time defensive play caller, an aging Von Miller (35) and a void without injured defensive leader Matt Milano.

“The weaponry is interesting without Diggs, but I almost sense relief,” a voter ranking Buffalo fourth in the AFC said. “It is a little like the Matthew Stafford ascension when he lost Calvin Johnson. It was like, ‘Hey, I can throw it to Kenny Golladay, and I can throw to Marvin Jones.’”

6. New York Jets

Votes: 3-7-6-9-5 | Avg.: 6 | Median: 6

The voter ranking the Jets sixth hit the midpoint between high and low votes.

“A flick of the finger could have put them at No. 1 or No. 6,” this voter said. “They have the most boom or bust next to Cincy. ”

Forty-year-old Aaron Rodgers holding up on artificial turf for 17 games, behind a line anchored by 33-year-old left tackle Tyron Smith, is not the safest bet.

The voter ranking the Jets third pointed to an improved offensive line, a solid ground game and an established defense. Another voter said Rodgers looked exceptional in joint practices.

“The main question mark is, did they do enough up front, on the offensive line?” the voter ranking the Jets seventh said. “And then, just so much pressure on them overall, on (offensive coordinator) Nathaniel Hackett. How do they do under that pressure cooker of New York with some really good teams in that division?”

7. Miami Dolphins

Votes: 7-5-5-7-7 | Avg.: 6.2 | Median: 7

Voters have the Dolphins one spot higher entering 2024 than entering 2023, appropriate for a team they see hovering, but not advancing.

“It is hard to forget how potent that offense is, especially before the weather gets bad,” one of the voters highest on Miami said. “Defensively, getting Jalen Ramsey back, getting Jaelan Phillips back, getting Bradley Chubb back — I think they will be right there.”

The general feeling on the Dolphins: They did not get better, but they did get healthier.

“They lost Christian Wilkins, lost Connor Williams and did not really replace them,” another voter said. “I am expecting downward from last year.”

8. Jacksonville Jaguars

Votes: 8-10-9-5-9 | Avg.: 8.2 | Median: 9

The Jaguars are on an island between the Dolphins and Chargers, with ample space above and below, measured by average votes.

“That is a good roster,” the voter highest on the Jaguars said. “If the quarterback can play up to par, that is a team that went into Kansas City and played them pretty tough two years ago. I think Doug Pederson is a good play caller.”

Pederson has refused to say whether he’ll be calling plays. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s health is the bigger variable after he battled several different injuries last season.

9. Los Angeles Chargers

Votes: 10-9-8-10-10 | Avg.: 9.4 | Median: 10

Jim Harbaugh’s arrival as coach did not stop the Chargers from dropping three spots from where voters had them slotted entering last season.

“I like other rosters (for lower-ranked teams) better, but the quarterback will give them a chance in every game,” one of the voters ranking the Chargers 10th said. “They don’t have a great receiving corps. The Gus Edwards/J.K. Dobbins rushing attack is probably a high-floor, low-ceiling deal.”

Justin Herbert was the only reason the Chargers avoided being ranked among the bottom three teams in the conference, one voter said.

“Outside of Herbert, they don’t have anyone on offense,” this voter said.

10. Cleveland Browns

Votes: 11-11-10-6-11 | Avg.: 9.8 | Median: 11

Execs are not betting on Deshaun Watson recapturing elite form.

“There could be regression now that they lost Joe Flacco,” one said half-jokingly.

With Watson limited and/or unavailable, the 2023 Browns became the fourth team since 2000 to win 11-plus games while ranking 28th or lower in offensive EPA, per TruMedia. The other three teams were the 2016 Giants (3-13 the following year), the 2010 Bears (8-8 in 2011) and the 2005 Super Bowl Bears (13-3 in 2006).

“That is not sustainable year over year, to win in the formula that they won,” one of the voters slotting Cleveland 11th said. “Kevin Stefanski won Coach of the Year because he was able to withstand something that was untenable.”

And if Watson stabilizes the position?

“If there is a team that no one thinks is worth a s— that does well, it will be Cleveland, or it could be Indy,” another voter said.

11. Denver Broncos

Votes: 12-15-11-11-13 | Avg.: 12.4 | Median: 12

Coach Sean Payton’s affinity for rookie quarterback Bo Nix intrigued some execs, but not enough to bet on Denver making a push in the conference. One exec listed the Broncos, Raiders and Chargers as lower-ranked AFC teams with a chance to surprise.

“Bo Nix is a really good fit for Payton,” this exec said. “My criticism of Nix was that he did not consistently push the ball down the field, but he is not going to be asked to do that. He has a ceiling, but I do think he probably acclimates to the pro game a little quicker.”

12. Pittsburgh Steelers

Votes: 13-12-12-16-12 | Avg.: 13 | Median: 12

The Steelers have never finished lower than the eighth seed in the AFC since Mike Tomlin became coach in 2007. They’ve been higher than seventh just once over the past six seasons.

“What are you believing in there?” one exec asked. “You have to believe in Tomlin. The quarterback play and offensive line play was atrocious in preseason.”

By all accounts, the Steelers upgraded at offensive coordinator with Arthur Smith. They have a veteran quarterback in Russell Wilson and a backup with potential upside in Justin Fields.

“Arthur Smith wants to run the football, which is good with both of those quarterbacks, but he also wants to attack the middle of the field in the passing game and operate on time,” another exec said. “Neither of those quarterbacks do that, and Pittsburgh can’t protect.”

This exec expected the Steelers’ defense, specifically their pass rush, to be an equalizer.

13. Indianapolis Colts

Votes: 14-8-15-14-8 | Avg.: 11.8 | Median: 14

The seven-spot gap between the highest and lowest votes for the Colts was the largest for any team in the AFC.

“By putting the Colts at 15, I am saying I do not think Anthony Richardson is a legitimate quarterback in the NFL, but if he does have success, they will be one of the top four or five teams in the AFC,” one exec said.

Another debated whether Indy should be higher than Tennessee.

“Indy’s corner situation is concerning, and their linebackers are just OK,” this voter said. “They will be fine up front.”

14. Tennessee Titans

Votes: 9-13-14-15-15 | Avg.: 13.2 | Median: 14

The voter highest on the Titans thinks Tennessee will be looking for a new quarterback in 2025, but he thought the Bill Callahan-coached offensive line and upgraded weaponry would let Will Levis be functional.

“I don’t think the quarterback is good enough, but they have offensive skill players in terms of three receivers, two really explosive running backs, and I think their offensive line is in the top half of the league,” this exec said. “Defensively, they are going to be a tough and physical unit. T’Vondre Sweat is big. Jeffery Simmons is big. The two outside backers are solid. They got Quandre Diggs, a solid player, and L’Jarius Sneed, who is good.”

15. Las Vegas Raiders

Votes: 15-14-13-12-14 | Avg.: 13.6 | Median: 14

The Raiders went 5-5 last season with Aidan O’Connell putting up numbers similar to the ones new quarterback Gardner Minshew produced while going 7-6 with Indy. The value Minshew added as a scrambler differentiated the two.

Are voters underselling the Raiders’ defense and special teams?

“The head coach (Antonio Pierce, with nine games of experience) will be interesting from a decision-making standpoint, and if they don’t have success right away, how does he manage that?” one exec said.

16. New England Patriots

Votes: 16-16-16-13-16 | Avg.: 15.4 | Median: 16

Houston shocked the league after the 2023 version of this poll had the Texans last in the AFC. Voters struggled to find a path for the Patriots to do anything similar.

“I tried,” one voter said. “There is not a lot to get fired up about. Ja’Lynn Polk is a very good rookie receiver, but I don’t see him having a Puka Nacua-type impact.”

And on to the NFC:

The San Francisco 49ers are comfortably in the top spot, though not without concerns. There’s very little separating the bottom six teams, so ranking 15th isn’t much worse than ranking 12th.

1. San Francisco 49ers

Votes: 1-1-1-3-1 | Avg.: 1.4 | Median: 1

The gap in average vote between the 49ers and the next team (Green Bay) is the largest separating any of the top nine teams (only the gap between No. 10 Tampa Bay and No. 11 Arizona was larger in the NFC).

“Who is stopping that offense? Are you kidding me?” one exec said.

The single exec ranking the 49ers lower than No. 1 in the conference cited a cumulative effect of San Francisco coming close to winning Super Bowls without breaking through. He saw some erosion of talent and wondered whether key players on offense would stay healthy again.

“There has been a lot of turmoil, and I don’t think they are as deep as they have been in the past,” this exec said. “Two of your most important players (Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk) have not practiced. At some point — and this may not be the year, because they are not yet paying the quarterback — it’s going to get more challenging.”

2. Green Bay Packers

Votes: 6-5-2-2-2 | Avg.: 3.4 | Median: 2

The Green Bay optimism flowed freely. What is there to worry about?

“I’m worried about the defense,” the exec ranking the Packers sixth said. “They weren’t very good defensively last year. Their new coordinator has never done it in the NFL. They are switching to a 4-3 from a 3-4. I don’t really know what to buy there to think how good they will be.”

The voter ranking Green Bay fifth said the Packers got hot late last season, but it wasn’t clear whether that would carry over, especially with such a young team.

“They did really well at the end when they were playing with house money, nothing to lose,” this exec said. “Jordan Love is good. Is he elite? He is really talented.”

One of the execs ranking Green Bay second in the NFC thought the Packers’ roster featured talent that would be better known in larger markets. He thought Dontayvion Wicks, a 2023 fifth-round pick, would soon become a top-15 receiver in the league.

“I’m a little hesitant because the quarterback needs to do it again,” another exec ranking Green Bay second in the NFC said, “but they are going to run the football, and they invest heavily in their defense. I think it’s a good recipe.”

3. Detroit Lions

Votes: 2-2-9-1-5 | Avg.: 3.8 | Median: 2

Wait, there’s an eight-spot gap between the highest and lowest votes for the Lions?

The exec slotting Detroit first in the NFC loves the way the Lions have built a four-down offense with an “in-your-face” ground game behind a strong line.

“There is a physical element to it,” this exec said. “They marry their pass game to their run game really well, and that is really hard to defend. I think they’ve added enough pieces to the back end of their defense to at least be league-average. If you are that and you are still scoring points, then you are going to be a difficult team to deal with.”

The exec predicting a fall for the Lions thought the league would catch up to Detroit this season. He thought no team’s offense had been studied as closely over the past two seasons as the Lions’, and that defenses would be better prepared.

“They treat third down like second down, and that was something that became very public as they went deeper,” this exec said. “Teams are going to pick up on that, and they play a tougher schedule, and there’s more (pressure) on them and we’ll see what it looks like.”

4. Los Angeles Rams

Votes: 4-4-3-4-8 | Avg.: 4.6 | Median: 4

The lone exec projecting a top-half conference finish for the Rams entering last season returned to the panel this year and was lower than any other exec on Los Angeles.

“They lost a Hall of Fame player in Aaron Donald and replaced him with a second-round pick,” this exec said. “I just don’t see it. They lost Raheem Morris also.”

The other execs were betting on more than Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. They liked what they perceived as a shift in McVay’s mindset.

“The quarterback is playing at a really high level, and McVay has reinvented himself in terms of the sleep, the staff, the mentality, and acknowledging that one of his weaknesses was the game-management piece, which he addressed by bringing in someone (John Streicher) to help,” one exec said. “Those are the margins, right?”

5. Philadelphia Eagles

Votes: 5-3-10-6-3 | Avg.: 5.4 | Median: 5

Execs were all over the place on the Eagles, with every projection — third, fifth, sixth and 10th — seeming plausible.

“There is too much noise there,” the exec projecting Philly 10th said.

The Eagles upgraded their coaching staff on paper. How will the newly configured pieces fit?

One exec noted that new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio brings a strong personality to a staff led by a head coach (Nick Sirianni) whose seat warmed last year.

Another said a motion-heavy offense under new coordinator Kellen Moore might not fit seamlessly with acclaimed incumbent line coach Jeff Stoutland, who might prefer simpler looks for blockers to execute cleanly.

“The new system also could put more on (quarterback) Jalen Hurts,” this exec said. “Without (retired center) Jason Kelce being that bridge, that is pretty interesting to me as to how all those pieces come together.”

It all looks good — on paper.

“I have a lot of respect for Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio,” one of the execs projecting Philly third said. “That offense was broken. To get someone with a good track record with his Dallas offenses, to add Jahan Dotson and Saquon Barkley to DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown and (Dallas) Goedert, they might have the best weaponry in football.”

6. Dallas Cowboys

Votes: 3-6-8-8-4 | Avg.: 5.8 | Median: 6

The exec ranking Philly third and Dallas fourth said he didn’t think there was much separating the two. Both teams have coaches facing potential make-or-break seasons, with the Cowboys’ Mike McCarthy — and quarterback Dak Prescott — in contract years.

“They thrive in the chaos,” an exec said of the Cowboys. “Looking at sheer talent, this is a pretty good group. The injury to (DaRon) Bland is significant, but they will be able to rush the passer. They will be able to score points. They’ll be tough.”

One of the execs ranking Dallas eighth in the conference thought the McCarthy/Prescott contract storylines could be problematic.

“Dallas is nothing more than a huge hot seat — everyone, all the pressure,” this exec said. “If Dak goes down (with an injury), there is not going to be very much incentive for him to rush back with no security. I’d get myself ready for my next team, next year.”

7.. Chicago Bears

Votes: 7-7-5-9-6 | Avg.: 6.8 | Median: 7

The Bears are one of the most intriguing teams in the NFC with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams joining a team that ranked fifth in defensive EPA per play over the final 13 weeks of last season.

“Super talented quarterback,” one exec said. “The time-to-throw will be interesting. I do expect guys to get open quickly with Keenan Allen’s route running and what (Rome) Odunze brings. Everyone has been talking about their offense, but their defense could be better.”

Multiple execs brought up Williams’ tendency to hold onto the ball in search of big plays. They thought Chicago’s offense could lack consistency as a result.

“I struggle with his play style because it’s so off-schedule, and I don’t think they are going to be very good up front,” one exec said. “If they can’t run the ball and he can’t operate on time and they have a lot of early down negatives, it becomes pure dropback on third down. But there are going to be some absolute moments of beauty off-schedule.”

8. Atlanta Falcons

Votes: 8-9-4-5-11 | Avg.: 7.4 | Median: 8

The gap of seven spots between high and low votes for the Falcons shows an absence of consensus.

“People are not giving them enough credit for the quarterback upgrade,” the exec ranking the Falcons fourth in the NFC said. “Their starting quarterback last year (Desmond Ridder) just got cut. The other one (Taylor Heinicke) got traded. Their starting quarterback now (Kirk Cousins) has been to the playoffs — consistently.”

Cousins is also coming off a torn Achilles tendon at age 36. His backup, rookie first-round pick Michael Penix, could still provide a significant upgrade from 2023.

“I do think Atlanta is by far the best team in the division,” an exec slotting the Falcons eighth said. “It’s the best roster. I’m really intrigued to see what Raheem Morris can bring.”

The biggest Falcons skeptic on the panel thought Cousins would be vulnerable behind Atlanta’s offensive line. He also questioned the team’s pass rush despite efforts to upgrade it.

9. Seattle Seahawks

Votes: 9-8-7-7-9 | Avg.: 8 | Median: 8

Execs expect defensive improvement under new coach Mike Macdonald, but they took a wait-and-see approach overall for a team whose offensive coordinator (Ryan Grubb) and special teams coordinator (Jay Harbaugh) have a combined three years of NFL experience, all by Harbaugh more than a decade ago.

“I think those guys are really good coaches,” one exec said. “It is just an unprecedented deal for guys to have no NFL experience ever. Macdonald had some, but (offensive line coach Scott) Huff and Grubb had zero. We are talking a run-game coordinator and an offensive coordinator that have never coached in this game.”

This exec thought Seattle had sufficient skill on offense but could remain vulnerable on its line with right tackle Abe Lucas still out.

Another exec expected the Seahawks to buck convention.

“I think they will do some things Week 1 that will be very different from what the NFL has seen,” this exec said. “They come from that analytics-heavy, Baltimore/Michigan mindset. They will take pride in the smarter-than-everyone-else-type stuff. Right out of the gate, they are going to be doing things where the narrative could be, ‘Whoa, how about this, college making its way to the NFL.’”

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Votes: 10-10-11-11-7 | Avg.: 9.8 | Median: 10

The line between winning the NFC South and finishing deep in the conference standings has been thin.

“They are homegrown, they are young,” an exec placing Tampa Bay 10th said. “They will be a little like the Rams last year, with a bunch of young guys who don’t know any better. Last year, they were 4-7 and wound up winning the division. The same thing could happen again this year.”

The combination of Baker Mayfield and first-time offensive coordinator Dave Canales worked last season. Can Mayfield and another first-time NFL play caller, Liam Coen, produce?

“Really hard to keep going and keep building when you change your offensive staff,” another exec said.

Coen comes to Tampa after bouncing between Kentucky and the Rams.

“They still have two really good receivers, they have a good runner — there are some things I like about them,” an exec said. “They have lost their edge a little bit defensively.”

11. Arizona Cardinals

Votes: 14-14-12-10-10 | Avg.: 12 | Median: 12

The exec ranking Arizona highest thought the Cardinals’ offense could be much improved.

“I like their offense a lot,” this exec said. “They are going to put Kyler Murray under center and really take advantage of what he brings with the boot, QB movement and keeper game. That is how you succeed with Kyler. They are not going to be fun to play.”

All execs agreed that Arizona’s roster still needs considerable work.

“I think San Francisco is 1 (in the NFC) and the Rams are 3, which means I have to think Arizona and Seattle are going to lose a lot, because where are those teams (49ers and Rams) getting their wins?” one said.

12. New Orleans Saints

Votes: 12-12-13-13-12 | Avg.: 12.4 | Median: 12

One year ago, execs had the Saints sixth in this poll. The team finished 9-8, tied for the sixth-best record in the conference, after winning four of its final five.

Opinions on New Orleans have taken a hit since then, although one exec pointed to the Saints as more likely than every team but Washington to outpace expectations among bottom-five teams in this exercise.

“It could happen if Derek Carr takes a big leap or has a lot of success in Klint Kubiak’s offense, or if he gets hurt and Spencer Rattler has an unbelievable rookie year,” this exec said.

The Saints ranked fourth in combined EPA on defense and special teams last season. They are banking on Kubiak’s play-action system lifting an offense with big question marks on the line and at receiver.

“Best-case scenario, with the scheme and the youth, you just keep playing and guys get better, and — like Green Bay did last year — they become a strength,” an exec said.

13. Minnesota Vikings

Votes: 11-13-16-12-13 | Avg.: 13.6 | Median: 14

The voter placing Minnesota 16th has long been a Sam Darnold skeptic.

“I thought they would have overachieved with J.J. (McCarthy),” a different exec said. “I still think they hover around .500 with Darnold. He has a year under his belt with Kyle Shanahan. It’s a similar system. They got weapons on the outside. Maybe under .500, but I do think they are going to be better than people anticipate.”

The idea that one year with Shanahan might precipitate a career reversal for Darnold was tough for some to buy.

“If you want to bank on that, you can do some cryptocurrency and some small-cap international,” one exec said. “Green Bay is paying Jordan Love after 18 starts, Chicago is jettisoning Justin Fields after (38) and we’re still wondering on this guy (Darnold) after (56) starts with two teams?”

14. Washington Commanders

Votes: 13-16-6-14-14 | Avg.: 12.6 | Median: 14

The single No. 6 vote for Washington reflected one exec’s long shot pick for a potential worst-to-first team. Other execs agreed that Washington could surprise.

“I would probably go with the Commanders (as a potential surprise team) because of the quarterback, the defensive head coach and the ability to generate pressure,” the exec slotting Washington 13th said. “They have a solid group up front on defense. They got Jeremy Chinn. They have some players defensively who can create negatives and get after the passer. The quarterback has a chance to make people better.”

All execs questioned whether Washington had enough talent on offense around rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.

“I just think they reek of average across the board, of a team looking to rebuild,” one exec said. “Lots of respect for DQ (Dan Quinn), but that could be the least talented roster in the NFC, outside the South.”

Commanders are not likely to contend in 2024, but they finally have a foundation in place

15. New York Giants

Votes: 16-11-14-15-16 | Avg.: 14.4 | Median: 15

Any path for the Giants to surprise probably includes a breakout season from rookie receiver Malik Nabers.

“If Nabers or (Marvin) Harrison were Rookie of the Year, that means they had a bigger year than the quarterbacks — a historic year that would uplift their teams,” one exec said.

The Giants appear optimistic, having unretired Hall of Famer Ray Flaherty’s No. 1 jersey so the rookie can wear that number.

“Their best chance with Daniel Jones is to do what they did a couple years ago: Go heavy play-action, simple boots with simple reads, and scheme those guys to be open,” an exec who considers Jones to be a low Tier 3 quarterback said. “There is definitely a ceiling there. Unless they know something we all don’t, they are kind of existing.”

16. Carolina Panthers

Votes: 15-15-15-16-15 | Avg.: 15.2 | Median: 15

Carolina was projected 10th entering last year and wound up with the NFL’s worst record.

“They still have a lot of work to do roster-wise, especially from a depth standpoint,” one exec said. “Their willingness to cut (K’Lavon) Chaisson suggests they’ve communicated to the owner that this is going take some time.”

Pouring resources into the interior offensive line seemed designed to spare quarterback Bryce Young from the avalanche that overwhelmed him as a rookie.

“I felt like Bryce Young started to play better toward the end of last year,” another exec said. “They think Dave Canales will get the most out of him. They will take their lumps this year and try to go young, and continue moving on from declining vets at the end of the year.”