It starts tonight in Kansas City.  Let’s enjoy the ride to SB58.

Some “predictions”:

We can’t say we’re rooting for it – but we see the Eagles hoisting Lombardi in Vegas.  They will beat the Bengals.

Teams that will exceed general expectations per the DB – Steelers, Texans, Seahawks, Falcons

Teams we like to fulfill higher expectations – Dolphins, Jets, Lions

Teams that will not fulfill expectations – Bills, Cowboys, Saints, Patriots

Team that will live up to low expectations – Cardinals (50% shot at 1-16 or worse)

Other thoughts – could the Patriots win 5 or fewer games in what will become Bill Belichick’s last season?

Broncos and Rams – two teams with a coach who won a Super Bowl coaching a QB who won a Super Bowl (for another coach).  Could they surprise?  We think Denver has a better chance.

How high can the Jaguars go?  10 games in the two South divisions should be an 8-win base.  Look for a high seed, but they don’t sustain in playoffs against a strong Wild Card like the Dolphins, Ravens or Steelers.

MVP – Jalen Hurts

Thoughts from Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com:

Who’s your pick for an under-the-radar team that will make the playoffs?

Graziano: I got the Atlanta Falcons. I think the Saints are the favorites to win the NFC South, but (a) that’s no guarantee, and (b) the division’s team schedules look soft enough on paper that it’s possible it sends more than one team to the playoffs. It’s about time for the high-end draft picks the Falcons have been making on offense to click. And while a lot of this depends on quarterback Desmond Ridder being as good as Atlanta seems to believe he is, there is a fair bit of offensive talent on that roster around him. If nothing else, the Falcons should be fun to watch.

Fowler: Good call, Dan. Coach Arthur Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot aggressively improved the roster through free agency and the trade market, and the NFC South is open to just about anybody.

I’ll take the Washington Commanders. Washington returns the core of a top-three defense that features an elite line. The offense is loaded at wide receiver. Sam Howell should have everything he needs to flourish in his second year. Despite the uncertainty around his game, the early returns in Washington have been good. He has looked the part. And Eric Bieniemy will spark the offense with a tough-minded identity.

Graziano: I like that pick, because I’m always looking for kooky things to happen in the NFC East. Something unexpected always does, and this would surely qualify. I agree about the talent the Commanders have on the offensive side, and while they have some concerns on the line, who doesn’t? It’s a big year for Bieniemy and coach Ron Rivera, and maybe the team rises to the occasion.

NFC NORTH

MINNESOTA

An extension for S JOSH METALLUS.  Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com:

The Minnesota Vikings and safety Josh Metellus have reached a two-year extension worth up to $13 million that includes $6 million guaranteed, a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Thursday.

The Vikings announced they had signed Metellus through the 2025 season but did not disclose terms.

Metellus was entering the final season of his rookie contract after being drafted by the Vikings in the sixth round in 2020.

He has long been one of the Vikings’ top special teams players and was named its captain for the 2023 season. But Metellus also has been tapped for a more robust role on defense this season by new defensive coordinator Brian Flores.

During training camp practices, Metellus appeared extensively in three-safety sets Flores favors. Based on matchups, he could be on the field for the first defensive snap in the Vikings’ season opener Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Metellus has played in 48 career games, making three starts in 2022 while recording his first interception. In the past three seasons, Metellus has been on the field for 929 special teams snaps, third-most on the Vikings over that period.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

Where things stand on an extension for QB DAK PRESCOTT per Charles McDonald ofYahooSports.com:

When is the Dak Prescott extension coming?

There are a multitude of Dak questions that have to be answered heading into this season, including whether the deep speed of wideout Brandin Cooks and the play-calling of head coach Mike McCarthy can help unlock Prescott in the playoffs and eliminate last season’s interception issues. But the thundercloud overhead remains his contract and whether Dallas can get an extension in place to smooth out next season’s massive $59.5 million salary-cap number.

I’ve heard that neither side is sweating the extension right now, but that they’re also not wrenching on it at the negotiating table, either. That leads me to believe there is an either/or scenario in play here for Cowboys ownership. Either Cowboys ownership already has a good idea of what the financial numbers will be in the extension and believe it can get done quickly — or it’s inclined to wait and see how the season starts for Prescott with McCarthy calling plays and Cooks stretching defenses. I’m inclined to believe it’s the latter.

Whatever the rationale is, the clock is ticking as we roll toward next offseason.

Dak says he doesn’t miss OC Kellen Moore.  Todd Archer of ESPN.com:

As he comes off a year in which he tied for the NFL lead in interceptions, despite missing five games, and saw the departures of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and best friend Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is more than ready for 2023 to begin Sunday against the New York Giants.

“Our plan’s in right now; just went out there and practiced it. Obviously, we’ll cross our T’s and dot our I’s and iron out the rest of it over these next couple of days, but my comfort level is at an all-time high,” Prescott said after Thursday’s practice.

Prescott has had to learn an altered offense with the changes that new playcaller Mike McCarthy has implemented to what the quarterback has called the “Texas Coast” offense, a blend of the head coach’s West Coast philosophies and what the Cowboys have done for years.

“Definitely ready to start the season, no doubt,” McCarthy said. “I think as a human being, he is extremely focused on each day to day. I think his discipline and approach to life, let alone professional football, is top notch. So I know this, he has definitely taken advantage of every opportunity to learn, obviously evaluate, and then the implementation of the things that are new, I’m really, really impressed with his offseason work preparing for this opportunity. Yeah, definitely I would say he’s ready to go.”

Prescott had 15 interceptions in the regular season a year ago and had two more in the playoffs, leading to a high level of scrutiny from outside the organization if not inside. Prescott has missed 17 games over the past three seasons because of injuries but has not missed a snap in the offseason program or training camp, although he did not see any preseason action.

“If I’ve ever given credit to people’s opinions, I wouldn’t have made it this far in my life, in this league,” Prescott said. “Everybody has an opinion. For me, it’s about focusing on what I can do with this team, the guys and the men we have, and I can’t control everyone’s narrative, what they try to make something out to be … It’s about turning the page and writing a new sentence. The pen is in our hands and we’re ready to do that.”

Prescott has won 10 straight games against the Giants after losing both times to the Cowboys’ division rivals as a rookie in 2016. He has 23 touchdown passes and seven interceptions with 3,147 yards on 261-of-407 passing against the Giants.

Prescott’s winning streak against New York is the second-longest active streak. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have beaten the Denver Broncos 11 straight. Since the 1970 merger, there have been 14 regular-season win streaks of 10 games or more by a starting quarterback.

With a win Sunday, Prescott would tie Roger Staubach with the longest win streak against the Giants since at least 1950, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.

“It’s a good team,” Prescott said of the Giants. “Going to give them respect and just do what I’ve done every year, every time playing these guys, prepare my ass off going into this game and just be ready for whatever they have. But they do have my respect. It’s always fun playing New York, and definitely playing them up at their place.”

– – –

And LB MICAH PARSONS likes to see the going rate being about $2 million per sack.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The 49ers made Nick Bosa the highest-paid defensive player in the league on Wednesday and the deal caught the eye of a player who will be in line for a new deal of his own after this season.

Cowboys star Micah Parsons finished second behind Bosa in defensive player of the year voting after the 2022 season and his production over his first two NFL seasons has him on track for a massive contract extension at some point in the near future. After news of Bosa’s extension broke on Wednesday, Parsons offered some laudatory comments about the 49ers defensive end and said that he sees Bosa setting a standard for him to pursue outside the financial realm.

“Super happy for Nick Bosa, man,” Parsons said, via Clarence Hill of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. “He really showed why he was the best player in the league last year. It gives you something to chase, man. And not in terms of his contract, but in terms of how great he was. If you study his mindset and how patient he was and let the game come to him. He knows that I’m coming for him. He even said, ‘I won this year, and I know you’ll be coming for it next year.’ “And I said, ‘You’re damn right.’ It’s going to be a good chase.”

Parsons added that he’s thinking about bringing the Cowboys a Super Bowl rather than his next contract, but everything is intertwined for Parsons this year. If he repeats his individual success and helps the Cowboys to greater team success, his impending contract extension and the pressure on the Cowboys to get it done is only going to get bigger.

NFC SOUTH

CAROLINA

Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com look at the rookie QBs:

Which rookie QB will have the best 2023 season?

Fowler: Bryce Young. He probably has the best supporting cast among himself, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson. The word out of Carolina is his in-game acumen is as good as the Panthers could have hoped. Richardson has the highest ceiling, and Stroud might be the best pure thrower of the football, but based on the situation and ability to win right now, Young gets the nod for me.

Graziano: I agree. Young should play well right away, and he looks the part. I know we’re getting a little happy on the NFC South so far here, but I wouldn’t be totally stunned if Carolina were a sneaky playoff contender this season. I am, however, fascinated to see what kind of year Richardson has with the Colts. They think he’s further along in his development than a lot of the pre-draft prognostication suggested, and while there are sure to be some ugly moments with a player this inexperienced, there are also going to be plays, drives and games where he looks like a guy who has more raw talent at the position than anyone we’ve ever seen.

Fowler: Yeah, Dan, the Colts are low-key pumped about Richardson. They like how he has worked behind the scenes, and coach Shane Steichen believes Richardson’s versatility only expands the playbook. But the Colts are bracing for growing pains, and not just at quarterback. This feels like a transitional year in Indy.

NEW ORLEANS

QB JAKE HAENER, who does not look like he enhances his appearance, is baffled to find himself on the receiving end of a 6-game NFL suspension.

Haener will be eligible to return to the Saints following the team’s Week 6 game against the Houston Texans.

Haener released the following statement:

“I recently learned that I tested positive for a substance banned by the NFL earlier this summer,” Haener’s statement read. “I still do not know how the substance got into my body, as none of my supplements or prescribed medications contain the banned ingredient.

“I would never knowingly cheat the game that I love, however I must take full responsibility for the failed test. I apologize to the Saints organization, my friends and my family for any distraction this suspension may cause. I am disappointed to be away from the team for the coming weeks, but I will learn and grow from this experience.”

Interesting that Haener says his illicit substance was only a recent add to the NFL’s long list of banned substances.

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

What’s going on at QB in Arizona?  Dan Graziano:

My understanding of what’s going on with the Arizona QB situation, though it has been tough to get information on this: First, the expectation as of now is that the Cardinals go with Joshua Dobbs as the starter on Sunday. Dobbs just got there via a trade, but he worked with Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing last year in Cleveland and is a literal rocket scientist, so they aren’t worried about him struggling to pick up the offense.

Second, rookie Clayton Tune is not a nonfactor in all of this. He’s a player the Cardinals might want to take a look at while Kyler Murray remains out recovering from his knee injury. It’s not clear whether Tune would have a chance to start a game or two should Dobbs struggle or whether the Cards have specific packages with him in mind, but he could certainly play at some point.

Third, they definitely plan to play Murray when he’s ready. Whether he’s a real option for them in 2024 and beyond, or whether they have to get him on the field so other potentially interested teams can get a look at him, the Cardinals are not planning to sit Murray out the whole year.

And fourth, whoever’s playing QB in the meantime is probably going to do a lot of handing off.

SAN FRANCISCO

And so EDGE NICK BOSA is the NFL’s highest-paid defensive player.  Nick Wagoner ofESPN.com:

The news that the San Francisco 49ers have been waiting to hear for 43 days traveled quick Wednesday afternoon, most notably through the joyous screams echoing throughout the locker room from linebacker Fred Warner: Defensive end Nick Bosa is back.

The Niners and Bosa have agreed to a five-year, $170 million extension that will make him the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history, a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Wednesday.

The extension includes $122.5 million guaranteed, the source told ESPN.

Coach Kyle Shanahan, who was surprised when informed of the deal moments before his scheduled media availability, walked into the room with a big smile and confirmed that the league’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year is on his way back to the Bay Area to end his holdout, sign his deal and re-join the team before Sunday’s season opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

“Once we kind of went through the weekend, I just kind of got in my mind that we weren’t playing with him,” Shanahan said. “If I would have gone back and forth, that would have been miserable, so I just decided we weren’t. I think our team was ready to not [have him] and that was our mindset, and it was a hell of a bonus just getting told that coming in here. So we’re obviously real excited about it.”

Among defensive players, the $34 million annual payout surpasses the $31.7 million average belonging to Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald and the $122.5 million in guarantees easily surpasses the $102 million mark set by Bosa’s brother, Joey, with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2020.

Beyond the financials, the deal’s timing also means there’s a realistic chance Bosa will be in his traditional red No. 97 jersey on Sunday in Pittsburgh. While Shanahan said he needs to talk to Bosa and see where he is health-wise, one thing the Niners have never questioned is whether Bosa, who has been training at his home in Fort Lauderdale, would stay in shape during his holdout.

Which is why Shanahan indicated Bosa will be ready to go for Sunday, even joking that Bosa would play “as many snaps” as the game would allow.

“There is (some) question because we haven’t seen him, but I think you guys know how I’m talking,” Shanahan said. “He’d have to have a beer belly and be out of shape or something and that’s not in Nick Bosa’s DNA.”

Nick Bosa, 49ers           DE        $34.0M

Aaron Donald, Rams     DT        $31.7M

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins      WR       $30.0M

T.J. Watt, Steelers         LB        $28.2M

If Bosa does play, he’d be following a blueprint put forth by Steelers pass rusher T.J. Watt in 2021. That year, Watt was a “hold-in,” who reported to training camp but did not participate in team periods in practice as he worked toward a new deal.

Watt agreed to a four-year, $112 million extension four days before the season opener against the Buffalo Bills and went on to post 2 sacks, 1 tackle for loss and 5 quarterback hits in a victory.

Given Bosa’s track record, his teammates wouldn’t be surprised if he is able to pick up where he left off in 2022, when he posted a league-leading 18.5 sacks, 51 tackles, 2 forced fumbles and 58 quarterback pressures (third in the NFL). That performance earned Bosa his first All-Pro nod and third Pro Bowl berth, setting the stage for Wednesday’s record-setting contract.

“I think Bosa’s much more than just a little kick (for the team),” left tackle Trent Williams said. “He’s a kick-it-out-of-the-back-of-the-end-zone type of kick. Having him back, we’re all elated. Couldn’t be happier.”

That the Niners and Bosa eventually struck a deal is no surprise. That it took more than six weeks after the team opened training camp was.

San Francisco has made a habit of re-signing some of its big-name players either just before camp or soon after it opens. It followed a similar blueprint with tight end George Kittle in 2020, linebacker Fred Warner in 2021 and receiver Deebo Samuel in 2022.

However, Bosa’s deal, the largest of that group, proved more complicated.

Shanahan and general manager John Lynch never expressed any doubt that a deal would get done and were adamant that trading Bosa was never an option. That certainty, at least for Shanahan and a handful of players, began to change a bit when the deal wasn’t done before Wednesday.

For his part, Bosa, who generally prefers to do his offseason work with brother Joey in Fort Lauderdale, showed up at the team’s June minicamp and reiterated his belief that his payday would come as long as he remained patient.

“I think I’ll get what I deserve,” Bosa said June 6.

As it turned out, what Bosa deserved was a contract that matches his status as the game’s top defender. How much longer that will be the case remains to be seen.

Dallas Cowboys pass rusher Micah Parsons will be eligible for an extension for the first time after this season and, after finishing as runner-up to Bosa for DPOY last year, will likely push for something in the same ballpark or beyond Bosa’s new deal.

“Super happy for Nick Bosa,” Parsons said Wednesday. “He really showed why he was the best player in the league last year. It gives you something to chase. And not in terms of his contract but in terms of how great he was. … He knows that I’m coming for him. He even said, ‘I won this year and I know you’ll be coming for it next year.'”

The Niners practiced Wednesday without Bosa as they eagerly anticipate his arrival back in the Bay Area. From there, Bosa will be worked into practice the next couple of days before the team departs for Pittsburgh on Friday.

And for the first time in months, the Niners, who have been to three NFC Championship games in the past four years, feel whole again as they attempt to break through and win the franchise’s elusive sixth Lombardi Trophy.

“You should have seen me screaming earlier,” Warner said. “I’m sure everybody knows how he makes everybody’s life easier, not just me. Being one of the most dominant defensive players in the league, the run and pass game, just the most complete player on the edge clears a lot of things up.”

TE GEORGE KITTLE and T TRENT WILLIAMS pitched in to help get Bosa signed.

The 49ers needed cap space after agreeing to terms with Nick Bosa on a five-year extension worth $170 million.

To that end, the team restructured the contracts of tight end George Kittle and offensive tackle Trent Williams. The moves cleared $23.224 million.

Spotrac.com reports the 49ers converted about $10.6 million of Kittle’s base salary in 2023 into a signing bonus. They added a new void year in 2026. That creates about $8.5 million in additional cap space this season.

The Niners converted about $18.2 million of Williams’ base salary this season into a signing bonus. Williams gets a new void year in 2027. That creates about $14.6 million in cap space this season.

Teams were required to become cap-compliant by Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET. The top-51 rule was lifted, forcing teams to get under the $224.8 million cap limit for 2023, and the 49ers’ moves were two of several around the league.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

This sounds worrisome for WR COOPER KUPP.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Rams receiver Cooper Kupp has a hamstring problem. On Wednesday. coach Sean McVay suggested the root cause could be a nerve issue.

“I would just say this, it’s trying to just figure out what’s going on with him,” McVay said when asked about the reason for Kupp’s recent visit to a specialist in Minnesota. “Again, I’m kind of speaking out of turn. I just know that we’re trying to open up every avenue in regards to figuring out what’s going on, why is he feeling some of the sensations and things like that in his hamstring. Is it soft tissue? Is there something nerve-wise? And I would be speaking out of turn.

“I think we’re really trying to be able to figure that out. He felt like he gained a lot of information, was able to do a couple day’s worth of treatment that was beneficial, but it wasn’t anything that’s like, OK, he’s going to be back right now. And we had a feeling that there could be a couple weeks that we need to just be able to take it a day at a time and then hopefully we’ll start to see some positive results as it relates to how he’s feeling, what that means for his rehab program and as far as like a timetable, it could be anywhere between if we decide to put him on IR or it could be a couple weeks. But as soon as I have that information, I’ll let you guys know. And I know he wants to be out there badly, and we want him to be out there but we don’t want to rush it either.”

It sounds fairly significant, based on McVay’s comments. Especially in light of McVay’s reputation for downplaying injuries.

If, as it relates to what he said on Wednesday, McVay is downplaying the situation with Kupp, the truth potentially could be worse than anyone realizes.

– – –

Is QB MATTHEW STAFFORD on the same page as his teammates?  Madison Williams of SI.com:

The recent storyline surrounding Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is how he interacts with the younger players on the roster.

The rumor originated from his wife, Kelly, as she explained on her podcast that at 35 years old, Stafford has had difficulty connecting with the young players on the roster, especially after practice.

Stafford knew he was going to address these comments from the get-go during his Wednesday session with media, and he even joked that he was going to show up with a newspaper under his arm wearing spectacles to play into the storyline.

However, he quickly turned down any rumor, stating that he hasn’t had any issue connecting with his new team members.

“No, it’s been great, I love coming to work, I love working with these guys,” Stafford said. “I do [feel connected with the guys].

“I’m not too worried about it, nobody in that locker room is too worried about it, I promise you that,” Stafford continued. “We’ve completely moved on.”

Stafford is the oldest player on the Rams’ active roster as he enters his 15th year in the league. There’s only four other players who are at least 30 years old on the team.

Regardless of the age gap Stafford has with most of the roster, he doesn’t see it as the issue his wife originally painted it out to be.

Kelly has since apologized for her comments saying it was “probably the worst thing I’ve done when it comes to [Matthew].”

We’re not sure that what Stafford described is “trouble.”  Just a lot of roster turnover and a family-oriented QB with younger guys who do other things off the field.

Kelly Stafford expressed regret after revealing on her podcast that her husband, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, struggles to connect with his younger teammates this season.

Kelly spoke about her husband’s relationship with his teammates on an episode of The Morning After with Kelly Stafford, telling listeners that 35-year-old Matthew feels like he “can’t connect” with the rookies on the team.

She shared, “He said it’s so different and so hard to get to know these guys. He had a book printed out. He had the equipment guy get a book printed of all their faces, and all their names, ’cause he’s like, ‘I need to know their names.'”

And this, sounds relatively harmless.  We all know people cling to their phones:

Kelly’s initial comments about her husband’s relationship with his teammates also gave insight into what’s changed for the Rams’ star quarterback. She said “in the old days” of Matthew’s football career, players would be “interacting” and “doing something together” in the locker room. “They’d at least be talking,” she said.

“But now they get out of practice and meetings during training camp, and they go straight to their phones. No one looks up from their phones. Matthew’s like, ‘I don’t know … am I the dad? Do I take their phones? What do I do here?’ He’s like, ‘I want them to see me not as a coach.'”

She added, “But I think nowadays, it’s really hard to develop that because all these young kids, they don’t care. Or it’s not that they don’t care, but they’re so used to going straight to their phones instead of having some fun with some guys in the locker room. It’s different. It’s kind of sad.”

SEATTLE

Albert Breer, in response to a reader’s question, explains why he thinks Seattle will exceed expectations:

Team you’re higher on than consensus for the foreseeable future?

Mitch, for me, it’s been Seattle the whole offseason. There are three big reasons why.

1) Last year’s rookies. Tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, corners Riq Woolen and Coby Bryant, tailback Kenneth Walker III and defensive end Boye Mafe all had significant roles, with Cross, Woolen and Lucas being starters from Day 1. The group accounted for 4,838 snaps played, which was 22.9% of all snaps for the team, a staggering total for a team that was in the playoffs—not rebuilding. All are important and ascending pieces to the puzzle.

2) This year’s rookies. Would you believe Seattle thinks the 2023 class is just as good? Both Devon Witherspoon and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (before he got nicked up) have come as advertised and are expect to start, Derick Hall is in the defensive end rotation, and both Zach Charbonnet and Kenny McIntosh (who also is a little banged up) should add to what Walker’s bringing out of the backfield. That’s four guys who’ll play, with Day 3 picks Mike Morris and Olu Oluwatimi showing potential, too.

3) I’m buying on Geno Smith. I don’t think last year was a fluke. Neither do the Seahawks, and their willingness to tie this year’s team’s success to him is evidence of it. To me, it’s pretty simple. He was seen as a raw prospect coming out in 2013, with traits and a lot of production in an Air Raid offense in college. He had to play early. Predictably, he stumbled. The people who drafted him were fired. The new guys got rid of him. And he developed as a backup for five years. And now, we’re seeing that the idea he could play wasn’t so far-fetched after all. Especially because, as it turns out, he’s the right kind of guy and worker (which is no small part of this).

Look, I’m not saying this is 2012 all over again. But if the formula then was to pair a couple of off-the-charts draft classes with a quarterback found in a nontraditional way, after taking extra swings (Matt Flynn then, Drew Lock now) at the position, well, then the Seahawks are blazing a familiar trail here. Which I think will put them in the playoffs again.

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

We saw this after we picked Detroit to win tonight.  The AP:

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have been fast starters to the NFL season.

The defending-champion Chiefs head into their opener Thursday night at home against Detroit having won eight straight regular-season openers, which is tied for the fifth longest streak of the Super Bowl era.

Kansas City last lost in Week 1 back in 2014 with Alex Smith at quarterback when they fell 26-10 to Tennessee in a game played before Mahomes had even made his college debut at Texas Tech.

They won the next three openers with Smith at QB and then all five since Mahomes became the starter, scoring at least 33 points in the last seven Week 1 games.

Chiefs begin NFL title defense against Lions on Thursday night at Arrowhead Stadium

They have a long way to go to catch the longest streak ever as the Cowboys won 17 straight openers between 1965-81. The last team to win more than eight straight was the New England Patriots, who won 10 in a row from 2004-13.

Mahomes has been particularly sharp to start the season, throwing at least three TD passes in all five season-opening starts in his career for the longest streak ever. The only QBs to have more than five career Week 1 games with at least three TD passes are Tom Brady (nine), Dan Marino (seven) and Drew Brees (six).

In fact, only nine teams other than the Chiefs have had five Week 1 games with at least three TD passes in the last 20 seasons. The Bengals have the longest drought of that kind with none since Boomer Esiason did it in 1988.

Mahomes has 18 TD passes, 0 INTs and a 133.9 passer rating in his 5 openers.

– – –

What about TE TRAVIS KELCE tonight?  Dan Graziano:

As of Wednesday afternoon, according to sources, the Chiefs hadn’t totally given up on the possibility of tight end Travis Kelce playing in Thursday’s opener. Kelce injured his knee during Tuesday’s practice and is officially listed as questionable, but Chiefs coaches were working Wednesday on parallel game plans — one with Kelce in it, and one without.

Noah Gray would be the proverbial “next man up” at tight end, but he’s not going to be expected to perform at Kelce’s level. If Kelce can’t go, or if he’s limited, look for the Chiefs to rely on second-year wideout Skyy Moore a fair bit. The coaches have been impressed with how much better he has picked up the offense after spending a year in it. They have big plans for Kadarius Toney, too, but after missing basically all of training camp with a torn meniscus, he might need some time on task to get his routes and timing down with quarterback Patrick Mahomes before the Chiefs can really unleash all they have planned for him.

LAS VEGAS

What’s going on with DE CHANDLER JONES?  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels said on Wednesday that the team and defensive end Chandler Jones were dealing with “a personal situation and a private matter” when asked about Jones slamming the team on social media earlier this week, but Jones opted to go public again later in the day.

In posts to his Instagram account that have since been deleted, Jones showed the badge of a member of Las Vegas’ Crisis Response Team that he said the Raiders sent to his home. He said Dr. Heather Thanepohn, who is the clinical program manager of the CRT, told him he needed to come with them because he was “in danger.”

Jones also shared screenshots he said are texts from August with McDaniels that suggest the issues between Jones and the team have been going on for some time. Jones said he won’t post anything else if the Raiders let him play in Sunday’s game against the Broncos and asked why no one has asked the team why they have sent him away from the team.

The Raiders still list Jones as a starter on their depth chart, but it’s clear that there’s a lot unknown about what’s going on between Jones and the team. There may also be reason for concern about Jones’ well-being and making sure he’s healthy is the most significant issue for all involved to deal with at the moment.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano of ESPN.com on the current status of QB C.J. STROUD:

How will Stroud do in the first month for Houston, Dan? He definitely looked more comfortable in the final preseason game.

Graziano: One of the things Houston will be watching (and has been watching) with Stroud is how he handles himself when the pocket gets messy around him. Quarterbacks who come from high-end programs like Ohio State don’t tend to confront those situations as much in college and can sometimes get rattled when they suddenly find themselves in a league where the pocket gets messy all the time.

.

The Texans are happy with the way Stroud has picked up the offense, but it’s about getting him into real game conditions and seeing how much he still has — or doesn’t have — to learn about the speed, pace and intensity of NFL defenses. Add in the fact that Houston enters the season with some health issues on the offensive line — a line on which the Texans spent major resources this offseason to give Stroud the best possible chance of immediate success — and that first month could be a bit of a struggle.

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND

The New York Post with word that Coach Bill Belichick is a free agent.  Oli Coleman’s story has Patriots “execs” “worried”:

It seems that Bill Belichick has chick trouble.

Page Six hears that the legendary Patriots coach has split with longtime love Linda Holliday.

But the boss’s love woes are causing stormy seas around his usually peaceful Nantucket existence — and they’re even making team execs nervy.

Six-time Super Bowl champ Belichick has been with Holiday since 2007, but we hear that they’ve been involved in a drawn-out, back-and-forth breakup for nearly a year.

(In fact, we’re told Holliday has even been staying at his home lately, despite the split).

Complicating matters is that southern gal Holliday has got to be very fond of his New England haven Nantucket during their romance, and isn’t keen to leave the tight-knit island community just because she’s no longer with Belichick.

We’re told she wants to stick around.

Meanwhile, it’s also a delicate situation for business reasons — not only does Holliday head his Bill Belichick Foundation but she also has something of a history of, er, oversharing on social media.

In 2021, she made headlines (and, we’re told, headaches, behind the scenes) for criticizing Tom Brady during his time at his new team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, adding fuel to speculation that beef between Belichick and Brady had driven the most successful QB in history away from the Pats.

After the Bucs won a championship game, a fan wrote on Instagram, “Too bad Bill let Tom go!” and Holliday shot back, “And you have all the answers evidently? Tom didn’t score last night…not once! Defense won that game. Were you even watching?”

Now we’re told the team bigs are nervously wondering what Holliday might choose to muse about online next, now they’ve split.

Reps for Belichick and the Patriots didn’t respond to our requests for comment.

Holliday didn’t get back to us either.

THIS AND THAT

HOT SEAT

Jeff Kerr of CBSSports.com has his list of 8 coaches who start the year on the proverbial Hot Seat:

With the 2023 season set to begin, these are the coaches who are on the proverbial hot seat this year. These coaches either have to win or need a deep playoff run in order to keep their jobs. These rankings are based on job security, followed by past performance, then what they need to accomplish in order to move down (or off) the list.

1. Ron Rivera (Washington Commanders)

Career record with Washington (3 seasons): 22-27-1 (.450 win percentage)

Playoff appearances: 1

Entering his fourth season in Washington, this is a year Rivera has to perform. Rivera has never had a winning record in Washington (won the NFC East in 2020 with a losing record), as the Commanders have missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons. The Commanders have undergone two name changes, eight starting quarterbacks, and an ownership change since Rivera arrived — and Washington still hasn’t won more than eight games under Rivera.

After another quarterback disaster last season that led to an 8-8-1 record, Rivera hired Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator and handed the starting quarterback job to Sam Howell. The Commanders have never ranked higher than 24th in points per game and 20th in yards per game under Rivera, which is why Bieniemy was brought in to freshen up the play-calling and design.

The Commanders have the talent to win in the NFC East and advance to the playoffs, but they haven’t been able to get over that hurdle with Rivera. Another losing season and Rivera is certainly out with the change in ownership (new owner Josh Harris didn’t hire Rivera). Bieniemy could be lurking over Rivera’s shoulder too if the offense improves, but the team does not.

Washington hasn’t had a winning season since 2016 and hasn’t won a playoff game since 2005. The first one buys Rivera more time, while the second likely ensures his job security. Easier said than done.

2. Dennis Allen (New Orleans Saints)

Career record with New Orleans (1 season): 7-10 (.412 win percentage)

Playoff appearances: 0

Heading into his second season with the Saints, it’s still amazing Allen got a second job as an NFL head coach. Allen’s first venture as a head coach was disastrous, finishing 8-28 in lasting just 36 games with the Raiders before his dismissal in 2014. He still hasn’t finished with a winning season as a head coach, with his best mark being 7-10 last season (his first with the Saints).

The Saints took a step back in Allen’s first year as Sean Payton’s successor, finishing with a losing record for the first time since 2016 and having an offense finish outside the top 20 in scoring for the first time since 2005 (the year before Payton arrived).

Not having a quarterback hurt New Orleans, but the Saints rectified that problem by landing Derek Carr this offseason. New Orleans has the top quarterback in a division that lost Tom Brady to retirement and had a champion with a losing record. The division is there for the taking in 2023, especially with every team in the division (not named the Saints) going through a transition phase in their franchise.

The Saints should benefit from having one of the easier schedules in the NFL (New Orleans plays the NFC North and AFC South in 2023). The quarterback matchups on the schedule significantly favor the Saints too, more of an opportunity to rack up wins and set themselves up to become a Super Bowl contender in the NFC.

If the Saints don’t make the playoffs, Allen won’t be back in New Orleans. There’s too much talent on the Saints for them to significantly underachieve in 2023.

3. Brandon Staley (Los Angeles Chargers)

Career record with Los Angeles (2 seasons): 19-15 (.559 win percentage)

Playoff appearances: 1

Judging on the surface, the seat should be hot for Staley. The Chargers finished with consecutive winning seasons for the first time since 2017-18. Los Angeles made the playoffs for the first since since 2018 and finished with just its second double-digit win season since 2009.

So why is Staley’s job in potential jeopardy? The Chargers have a franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert (who they just signed to an extension) and haven’t won a playoff game with him yet in his three seasons with the team. Staley is partially responsible with his clock management, over-aggressiveness, and in-game decisions that have cost his team wins.

In the 27-point playoff collapse to Jacksonville, Los Angeles actually had a dropback percentage of 75% after building the 27-0 lead — higher than Jacksonville at 70%. That’s on Staley, who infamously had a collapse in Week 18 of the 2021 season (that cost the Chargers a playoff spot) despite Herbert being perfect on fourth down in the fourth quarter.

The Chargers not only have to get to the playoffs, but they have to win a playoff game in order for Staley to keep his job. There’s immense pressure on Staley to win this year.

4. Todd Bowles (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Career record with Tampa Bay (1 season): 8-9 (.471 win percentage)

Playoff appearances: 1

Bowles had the keys to the car handed to him in Tampa Bay, a franchise coming off a Super Bowl championship and a divisional playoff round exit in the two seasons prior. He also had Tom Brady coming back with an offense ranked second and third in points per game in that same stretch. The Buccaneers were 21-13 in the two seasons prior to Bowles’ promotion.

Tampa Bay’s offense fell from second to 25th in points per game, as Brady arguably had the worst season of his career. The defense fell from fifth in points per game allowed to 13th, while falling from sixth to 20th in giveaway/takeaway ratio. The Buccaneers did win the NFC South, albeit with a losing record and -45 point differential (then fell 31-14 in the wild card round).

The drop off from Bruce Arians to Bowles was significant, as the Buccaneers ended up firing longtime offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and hiring Dave Canales. Brady retired and Baker Mayfield was brought in for a last opportunity to start in the NFL. The Buccaneers are likely in the initial stages of a rebuild, but the NFC South is up for grabs and Tampa Bay has enough talent to win the division for a third consecutive year.

If the Buccaneers decide to speed up a soon-to-be rebuild after this season, the performance on the field will be the determining factor. Another losing season will speed up the process, and Bowles will be out. The Buccaneers have a reason to dismiss Bowles if this season is a failure, considering Bowles is just 34-50 as a head coach (.405 win percentage) with four losing years \in his his five full seasons.

The pressure is on Bowles to win a division that’s certainly winnable.

5. Mike McCarthy (Dallas Cowboys)

Career record with Dallas (3 seasons): 30-20 (.600 win percentage)

Playoff appearances: 2

Perhaps McCarthy should be higher on this list considering the franchise that employs him. The Cowboys haven’t reached the conference championship game since the 1995 season, but McCarthy has led Dallas to consecutive 12-win seasons for the first time since the 1994-1995 seasons. He has won 60% of his games since arriving in Dallas, but the Cowboys are just 1-2 in playoff games under McCarthy.

This year’s version of the Cowboys is more talented than a team that arguably should have beaten the San Francisco 49ers last season, making ending that conference championship game drought a priority.

McCarthy put even more pressure on himself this offseason by firing Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator and making himself the play-caller, putting himself in charge of revitalizing Dak Prescott, who is coming off his most turnover-prone season of his career. Aaron Rodgers became an MVP candidate again the following year after the Green Bay Packers fired McCarthy and hired Matt LaFleur, so McCarthy will have to prove a lot of doubters wrong if he wants to fix Prescott’s mistakes from last year.

The Cowboys should win games and make the playoffs, but it’s how far Dallas goes in the postseason that will determine McCarthy’s fate — in addition to Prescott improving from a rough 2022 season. Dallas should be a Super Bowl contender with this roster, so a deep playoff run by McCarthy is paramount.

6. Josh McDaniels (Las Vegas Raiders)

Career record with Las Vegas (1 season): 6-11 (.353 win percentage)

Playoff appearances: 0

McDaniels falls into the Allen dilemma. How did he manage to land a second head coaching job, especially after turning down the Indianapolis Colts head coaching job after initially accepting it? The first year in Las Vegas was a disaster, as the Raiders finished with a losing record (a year after making the playoffs) and were one of the most disappointing teams in the league.

Derek Carr was told to go home prior to the year ending, ending a decade-long reign as the Raiders quarterback. McDaniels brought in Jimmy Garoppolo and Jakobi Meyers to help out an offense that already has Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams. Both players were with McDaniels in new England, so his stamp has been placed in Vegas.

Are the Raiders even going to be competitive in a loaded AFC? The offense should be good, but is the defense any better than the 28th-ranked unit that finished last year? Vegas should score points and be excited to watch, yet the defense could be McDaniels’ downfall. Then there’s the whole relationships with players issue that resides with McDaniels, along with his 17-28 record as a head coach (.373 win percentage).

A winning season should be enough to keep McDaniels around for a third season, as the Raiders don’t want to pay his buyout if he struggles again. If the Raiders are 6-11 again (or worse), owner Mark Davis won’t have a choice.

7. Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland Browns)

Career record with Cleveland (3 seasons): 26-24 (.520 win percentage)

Playoff appearances: 1

Stefanski bought himself time with the Browns after leading the franchise to their first playoff victory since 1994 in 2020, yet that time is screeching to a halt. The Browns have a $230 million investment in Deshaun Watson who’s entering his first full season in Cleveland (Watson was suspended the first 11 games last season), along with a talented roster that’s built to win in 2023.

Cleveland has decreased its win total in every season under Stefanski, dropping to a 7-10 season in 2022. The Browns are just 15-19 over the last two seasons despite having a strong roster. Stefanski has gotten a pass for getting Cleveland a playoff victory, but he also hasn’t had his quarterback for the full season until this year (Watson’s suspension and legal issues pretty much made last season a wash).

Not only does Watson have to play well, but the Browns should contend for the AFC North title. Stefanski doesn’t have to do much to retain his job, as long as the Browns have a winning record and qualify for the postseason. Remember, this is Cleveland (the franchise has just three winning seasons since returning in 1999).

Another seven-or-eight win season may force Cleveland to make a change. There’s pressure on Stefanski to return to the glory of his first season. Watson returning to form should get the Browns there.

8. Robert Saleh (New York Jets)

Career record with New York (2 seasons): 11-23 (.324win percentage)

Playoff appearances: 0

Of course there’s pressure on Saleh to win, which comes with the territory when the franchise trades for Aaron Rodgers. The Jets are probably a playoff team last season if the quarterback play wasn’t so bad, which is why the franchise took the gamble and added Rodgers.

The Jets have built a team with a collection of young talent led by a future Hall of Fame quarterback. A winning season isn’t going to cut it with Saleh, as the Jets have to at least make the postseason (have an NFL-long playoff drought of 12 years). Considering the talent on the Jets roster, they should at least accomplish that feat.

Whether Saleh can actually coach will be discovered this season. He has the quarterback, skill-position players, and defense to make a deep playoff run. Would the Jets actually move on from Saleh if they win 10-plus games and a playoff game in 2023? Saleh would leave his fate to chance with those results, but that’s not enough justification for termination of employment.

The only way the pressure falls on Saleh is if the Jets get off to a slow start with their tough schedule at the beginning of the year. After a few games, Saleh’s “hot seat” can be reevaluated.

PREDICTIONS

Jared Dubin of CBSSports.com collects some predictions from his colleagues (we did skip some of the picks to get right to the Super Bowl:

The 2023 NFL season is finally here. We’re now mere months away from crowning a champion in Super Bowl LVIII, which will be played on Feb. 11, 2023, at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada. Of course, we have to play 272 regular season games and 13 more playoff contests between now and then, starting with the Kansas City Chiefs defending their title against the Detroit Lions on Thursday night.

How will things shake out during the regular season? We’re glad you asked. We gathered our panel of experts (senior NFL writers Pete Prisco and Will Brinson, and NFL writers Ryan Wilson, John Breech, Jared Dubin, and Tyler Sullivan) to predict the order of finish for every division, the wild card teams, and which team will both win and lose the Super Bowl.

Here are a few notes before we get to the predictions:

There was less agreement among our panelists this year than ever before, and it’s not even close.

We did not have a single unanimous division winner, and in three of the league’s eight divisions, our voters picked three different teams to finish in first. That means 19 of the 32 teams received at least one vote to win their division.

Just six teams were unanimously picked to make the playoffs, while 24 teams (75% of the league) got at least one vote for a playoff spot. Only eight didn’t receive a single vote. (13 teams didn’t receive a single playoff vote last year.)

Teams with only one voter picking them to make the playoffs: Dolphins, Titans, Broncos, Giants, Commanders, Panthers.

The one place there was unanimous agreement: the Rams finishing third in the NFC West and the Cardinals finishing last. All six voters had them finishing in the exact same order. Also, everyone had the Texans and Colts finishing either third or fourth in the AFC South, with an even 3-3 split for both teams.

None of the six panelists picked the same Super Bowl matchup or the same Super Bowl winner. We have one vote for six different teams to win it all, and at least one for nine different teams making a trip to Vegas for the championship game.

The only teams that multiple voters picked to reach the Super Bowl: Eagles (2) and 49ers (3). Everyone had a different representative from the AFC.

Super Bowl Picks

  Pete Prisco    Will Brinson    Ryan Wilson    John Breech    Jared Dubin    Tyler Sullivan

W – 49ers              Bills             Chargers            Bengals          Chiefs            Eagles

L – Jaguars           49ers          Eagles                Cowboys         49ers             Ravens