The Daily Briefing Thursday, September 8, 2022

By admin | September 14, 2022

THE DAILY BRIEFING

AROUND THE NFL

NFC SOUTH

CAROLINA

QB BAKER MAYFIELD has provided media members with good copy at other points in his career, but with the Week 1 revenge game in Cleveland looming, his quotes have been bland and boring. Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

Baker Mayfield‘s football life has been filled with revenge games.

He returned to Texas Tech in 2016 after transferring from Oklahoma and outdueled Patrick Mahomes in a 66-59 win. A year after Ohio State won in Norman, Mayfield planted an OU flag at midfield in Columbus after a win in 2017.

In 2018, Mayfield stared down the Bengals sideline after former Browns coach Hue Jackson joined the Cincinnati staff.

“When Baker is out there, swinging (his arms), with his chest out . . . that’s what we want to see — him talking his talk, and walking his walk,” Panthers receiver Rashard Higgins, who spent four years with Mayfield in Cleveland, said, via Steve Reed of the Associated Press. “When he’s jacked up, he plays good. So I want to see it from him.”

Mayfield is jacked up all right.

He has denied telling an NFL Media reporter that he was going to “f— up” the Browns in the season opener. But his camp did begin selling T-shirts with Mayfield in a cowboy hat with the words “off the leash,” showing him breaking free of a chain on a dog collar.

Mayfield said the T-shirts had “subliminal messages” but added that he didn’t design them.

The fifth-year quarterback admits he is looking forward to “smack talking” with former teammates, but he didn’t give them any bulletin board material Wednesday.

“I’m grateful for my time in Cleveland,” Mayfield said. “I started my career there and it ended abruptly and unexpectedly, but we’re here now and everything happens for a reason. I’m rolling with the punches.”

There is no doubt in anyone’s mind that Mayfield wants to take it out on the Browns on Sunday, but it’s anyone’s guess as to what happens if he does.

TAMPA BAY

Coach Todd Bowles says the Buccaneers will not be targeting their tight ends as much with Rob Gronkowski in retirement. The RedZone.org:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles said the team’s tight end production will be made up through running backs and receivers according to the Pewter Report.

Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard are gone and, while the Bucs selected two tight ends in this year’s draft, the coaching staff doesn’t seem inclined to trust the rookies with major responsibilities this early in the season. That leaves veterans Cameron Brate and Kyle Rudolph but neither are exciting options. As the incumbent, Brate should be in line to start with Rudolph mixing in for reps. But Gronk missed five games last year and still posted more yards than Brate or Rudolph has in a single season since 2016. You can see why Bowles is looking for production elsewhere on the roster.

Julio Jones should be a major beneficiary of the team’s focus on its receivers. Jones struggled through injuries in 2021 but finished seventh in yards per game in 2020. If he still has that juice, Jones could thrive with Tom Brady.

NFC WEST

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Jordan Rodrigue of The Athletic on what the Rams did after EDGE VON MILLER spurned them for the Bills.

On a Wednesday morning in mid-March, the Rams realized they couldn’t be the same as before.

That day, a group that included general manager Les Snead, head coach Sean McVay, defensive coordinator Raheem Morris and the pro personnel tandem of John McKay and Matt Waugh, clustered together in one of the small offices at the team’s Thousand Oaks, Calif., facilities.

They were just a few weeks removed from winning Super Bowl LVI, and the glow of their 2021 season hadn’t quite left the building.

The cries of “run it back!” from the men in that office, echoed by dozens of players and coaches during their boozy, confetti-freckled championship parade, were still ringing in their ears that Wednesday when Von Miller told them he wasn’t coming back.

A future Hall of Fame pass rusher whose historic postseason helped the Rams win their first title in Los Angeles, Miller had wanted to test free agency that spring for the first time in his 11-year career. But he told the team shortly after the parade that he’d be back, so long as the Rams got the money right on a previously-discussed contract extension.

Miller’s return would mean keeping the Super Bowl band together, “running it back” with the same group. Executives already knew McVay would be around for the attempt at a repeat despite rumors he was considering stepping away for a massive broadcast deal. They laid out frameworks for extensions for quarterback Matthew Stafford and top receiver Cooper Kupp, as well as a restructure and raise for Donald.

But then, the call came in. The Buffalo Bills, who had come excruciatingly close to playing the Rams in the Super Bowl that season, had offered Miller something L.A. would not. Miller was heading to another contender.

Snead quietly pushed back his chair and left the room. He needed to take a walk.

When he returned, everything would change.

In November 2021, receiver Robert Woods tore his ACL in practice the day after the Rams signed Odell Beckham Jr., a prolific receiver still reeling from his controversial exit from Cleveland. Instead of gradually working Beckham Jr. into the offense, he had to contribute immediately. But the Rams couldn’t simply put him in Woods’ own unique role — running jet sweeps, blocking and executing the catch-and-run shorter passes and midfield crossers off of play-action that were once a signature of the McVay offense.

The Rams weren’t playing that way so much anymore anyway. With Stafford, McVay moved away from play-action and toward more dropback passing concepts, shotgun and empty formations with every eligible pass-catcher aligned along the line of scrimmage pre-snap.

It was a slow, at times frustrating process to overhaul their offense minus Woods amid the unforgiving sprint of a season that started to feel like quicksand. The Rams had started 7-1 but went winless in November. It was only when the coaching staff decided to swap out their traditional run game with a power-run plan, utilizing extra offensive linemen as “tight ends” in jumbo-blocking formations for steady downhill back Sony Michel, that the team began to re-discover its heartbeat.

“Heck, OBJ didn’t even know the playbook,” Snead told The Athletic. “As Big Whit (left tackle Andrew Whitworth) would say, ‘When in doubt, when taking on water, let’s just run at ’em. Let’s play bully ball.’”

– – –

“I mean, what Odell did last year was unbelievable,” said Kupp, who went on to win the ultra-rare receiving triple crown in 2021. “I just can’t imagine learning the offense the way he did in the middle of having to play the game. It was an incredible thing. … You get to the place where it’s like, ‘Hey, we need to figure out what that’s gonna look like,’ he provided something that was pretty special.”

The Rams had traded for Miller days before signing Beckham, believing the pass rusher to be the final piece needed for a roster that seemed to have a deep postseason run in its destiny — and elite quarterbacks in its path.

Miller arrived in Los Angeles with a minor ankle injury but got healthy through the Rams’ bleak November. In December and January, he started to come alive as the Rams regained their own footing. He began sitting beside Donald on the team plane after road games and plotting new rush patterns with defensive line coach Eric Henderson.

– – —

If the Bills weren’t already painfully aware of their missing piece, Miller and the Rams made it all too clear.

“We obviously know how close we were the last two years. AFC Championship, and then this year 13 seconds away from going back to the AFC Championship,” Beane said this spring. “That’s not our goal. Originally, our goal was to win the division, get to the playoffs and get a chance. We’ve done that. Now we gotta find how we get to that next step. …

“The quarterback is the premium position. We have that. The next thing is to get someone who can get the other quarterback down.”

Multiple league sources believe the Bills were initially targeting veteran pass-rusher Chandler Jones as free agency began in March — not necessarily out of a preference (the Bills had inquired about trading for Miller ahead of the 2021 season), but because everybody, including the Rams, believed Miller was returning to Los Angeles. But as the “legal tampering” period opened and the March 16 official start to free agency loomed, Jones emerged as a match for the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Bills became aware of a key contractual detail missing from the Rams’ still-unsigned offer to Miller: A third year of guaranteed money. The Rams wouldn’t — and couldn’t — do that. They had never offered a third guaranteed year to a player, and they couldn’t set a precedent for Miller instead of homegrown stars Donald and/or Kupp, both of whom had deals looming later that spring.

Miller called McVay and told him he was accepting the Bills’ six-year, $120 million offer with a little over $51 million guaranteed over three years. Some in the room sat for a moment, stunned by Miller’s change of heart. Snead wasn’t the only one who needed to take a walk.

The Rams were forced to pivot, but they weren’t going to target another pass rusher if they couldn’t get one they felt was worth a high-capital investment. A key element of their team-building model is only investing on that level at certain positions — quarterback, pass rusher, cornerback and receiver — and only in players they believe have “elite” traits as quantified by their in-house analysis.

“What we can’t do is mope that we don’t have Von,” said Snead, adding, “We’re not replacing Von.”

The group immediately turned on some film of free-agent cornerbacks but weren’t inspired. Then, McVay flipped through a few texts on his phone. On and off that spring, he, Stafford and Kupp had talked about free-agent receiver Allen Robinson, marveling at what they felt others couldn’t see: that Robinson, for all of his reputation as a high-point, contested catch receiver, was incredibly versatile. That he could separate in between the hashes, not just up in the air. That, along with all of that, Stafford always loved having a big-bodied receiver with a huge catch radius to reel in what McVay admiringly calls, “f— it throws”.

“You can line (Robinson) up anywhere,” said Kupp. “He can do all of the other stuff, just like Odell was doing. Play some stuff underneath, be able to be singled up on the back side and win one-on-ones — I mean, A-Rob is a guy who can do all of it.”

McVay was nervous about his receiving corps. Beckham, playing on a one-year deal, tore his ACL in the Super Bowl en route to what may have been an MVP performance. The Rams wanted (and still want) to bring Beckham back but knew he couldn’t contribute until November or December. No. 3 receiver Van Jefferson had just undergone the first of two knee procedures. Woods was still recovering from his torn ACL and so was considered by staff as an “unknown” for 2022.

The energy in the room started buzzing as the group turned on film cut-ups of Robinson. Still, the Rams were cautious. They knew they couldn’t offer him more than the framework they had set aside for Kupp. They also figured he had a couple of suitors already. Would he consider them?

Late that Wednesday night, the Rams called Robinson. He was deep in talks with the Eagles, two sources told The Athletic, but the Rams asked him to postpone his final decision long enough to get on a video call with McVay and Stafford. The coach and quarterback showed Robinson clips of Beckham that they had hustled to put together for the occasion showing how the passing offense eventually evolved around him and Kupp.

“Didn’t know if he was going to be here or not,” Stafford said. “But tried to put some stuff out there to show a role that could come to fruition.”

A 2014 second-round pick who spent the first eight years of his career split between the Jaguars and Bears — two teams with woefully inadequate quarterback play — Robinson had taken a cautious and researched approach to free agency. Along with his agent, Brandon Parker, he even attended the 2022 scouting combine in late February to talk to interested teams in person.

When the Rams called, Robinson didn’t need to be sold — a Detroit native, he had long admired Stafford from afar. But he let McVay and Stafford say their piece. After watching the clips with them, Robinson decided that throwing himself into something he hadn’t expected gave him a feeling he’d been waiting for, for almost a decade.

“I think for (some) guys, that ‘unknown’ causes sleepless nights,” he said. “At the end of the day, you just believe in yourself, you bet on yourself, you trust in yourself and you believe that what happens next is best. You never know what’s on the other side.”

Only a couple of hours after their initial call, Robinson told the Rams he was in. The sides agreed to a three-year, $46 million deal with $30 million guaranteed mere hours after Miller’s fateful call to McVay. The sudden change in strategy — not from pass rusher to pass rusher, but from elite defensive player to elite offensive player, was striking.

“We love Von, but it didn’t work out,” said McVay. “And so now, you say, ‘How do we pivot in the right direction?’ And it doesn’t exclusively have to be from that position. I think that’s where the flexible approach from our personnel staff, our coaches (is) to say, ‘OK, what does that look like?’”

Shortly after Robinson signed, Woods was traded to Tennessee. The Rams, by then emotionally removed from the idea of “running it back”, leaned further into their new direction. They signed another future Hall of Famer, inside linebacker Bobby Wagner, in late March, rolling some of their savings from not signing Miller into Wagner’s multiyear deal.

“Then, it was like, ‘OK, this is going to be a different team,’” COO Kevin Demoff told The Athletic.

– – –

The lore inside the Rams locker room is that Robinson and Wagner respectfully declined open invitations to attend the team’s ring ceremony in July.

The two attended every single day of voluntary spring workouts. Wagner sat with different players in stretching lines before the start of practices. Robinson dove into the playbook with restless, obsessive energy. Personnel staff marveled at the intensity with which he studied.

But they told teammates they wanted to build something new together. The past was not theirs to live in.

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

QB PATRICK MAHOMES indicates it will be boom or bust in 2022 if you have a Chiefs player, other than Mahomes or PK HARRISON BUTKER, on your Fantasy team. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes had a message for fantasy football players on Wednesday and it’s one that he likely won’t mind if opposing defensive coordinators pay it some attention as well.

The Chiefs passing game revolved around Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce the last few years, but Hill is now in Miami and that’s led to questions about what the offense will look like this season. Internal answers have stressed the depth of options available on offense and Mahomes continued banging that drum.

He said Kelce will likely continue to have a lot of catches, but that starring roles will otherwise rotate among players like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Mecole Hardman, Isaiah Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and others.

“The biggest thing is there’s going to be a different player every single game that has the big game,” Mahomes said, via Adam Teicher of ESPN.com. “It’s not going to be just necessarily Tyreek and Travis every single week, where it’s like one or the other having a big game or both. Every single week, it’s going to be someone different. So I’m sorry to all you fantasy football guys. It’s going to come from everywhere, so you’re going to have to kind of choose the right guy every week.”

That’s not great for fantasy football and it’s not great for defenses who will have to cast a wide net as they try to keep Mahomes from picking them apart this season.

LAS VEGAS

TE DARREN WALLER seems close to a big money extension. Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:

Like the Ravens and quarterback Lamar Jackson, the Raiders and tight end Darren Waller are playing beat the clock for a new deal before the regular-season opener. Unlike the Ravens and Jackson, the Raiders and Waller could get a deal done.

Per a league source with knowledge of the situation, talks between the Raiders and Waller are progressing. The goal remains to get a deal done by Sunday, when the Raiders open the season against the Chargers in L.A.

Waller has made it clear he’ll be playing, with or without a new deal. He has $6.75 million in base salary and per-game roster bonuses under his current contract for 2022. He has the same compensation package in 2023.

Some have questioned whether the Raiders would conclude a deal with Waller following a recent change in agents. The argument would be that the team wants to avoid the perception that firing their current agent and hiring a new one is the key to getting a new deal.

That doesn’t seem to be affecting the current situation. Momentum is building toward getting the new contract that he deserves — especially in light of the fact that the new regime realizes what a weapon he can, and possibly will, be in the Josh McDaniels offense.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

The Chargers will be without newcomer CB JC Jackson this week. Coral Smith ofNFL.com:

J.C. Jackson’s status for the Chargers’ Week 1 matchup versus the Las Vegas Raiders was already dubious after he underwent surgery on his ankle only a couple of weeks ago.

It looks like the tight turnaround is not going to work out for the Pro Bowl cornerback, as NFL Network’s Taylor Bisciotti reported Wednesday that Jackson is not expected to play on Sunday. Jackson did not participate in practice, per the team’s official injury report.

Jackson had not played a preseason snap before the surprising news that he had undergone surgery on his ankle on Aug. 23. The Chargers had not disclosed an injury before that point, and head coach Brandon Staley later said that the procedure was not done to address a specific injury, just to address some discomfort. Staley said at the time that the timetable for return was two to four weeks, and if Jackson healed quickly, the hope was that he could be ready to go for Week 1. But based on Jackson’s lack of participation in practice, it appears that optimism will not come to fruition.

The 26-year-old came to Los Angeles this offseason after signing a five-year, $82.5 million contract that drew him away from New England, where he spent his first four seasons. In that time, Jackson was a force to be reckoned with in the secondary, hauling in 25 interceptions, an NFL record over a player’s first four years.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

A meeting of the minds on a contract extension between QB LAMAR JACKSON and the Ravens seems unlikely this year. This from Sam Robinson of ProFootballRumors.com:

Lamar Jackson has moved his deadline for a 2022 extension agreement up to Friday. The former MVP confirmed this today but added talks have not broken off. This is an artificial deadline, and Jackson added the talks “probably” will end Friday. The sides negotiated into last season, but the agent-less QB is against such a path this year.

Baltimore’s star quarterback has been connected to seeking a fully guaranteed deal, a la Deshaun Watson, while the Ravens are against such a structure. The Ravens are believed to have offered a deal north of Kyler Murray‘s $46.1MM-per-year pact, but Jackson remains unsigned. Two days ahead of this deadline, pessimism defines these talks.

Barring an 11th-hour shift, Jackson is expected to play the 2022 season on his $23MM fifth-year option, Mark Maske of the Washington Post notes. Previously, it was thought Jackson was giving the Ravens until their Sunday opener. But considering this deadline is designed to separate Jackson negotiations from his preparation for the 17-game season, it makes sense the three-time Pro Bowler would want to head into the weekend with this matter — extension or not — behind him.

A 2021 Baltimore offer matched the Bills’ $43MM-AAV Josh Allen extension. Jackson passed. While the Ravens have upped their offer this year and may well have increased it again this week, it is worth wondering where the team’s cutoff point resides.

Russell Wilson‘s five-year, $245MM Broncos extension includes $124MM fully guaranteed. Denver’s deal locks the nine-time Pro Bowler in through at least 2025, due to a March 2024 guarantee trigger. Jackson, 25, being eight years younger than the former Super Bowl winner would give him an excellent case to bridge the gulf between Wilson’s guarantee figure and Watson’s $230MM total. As the Broncos and Cardinals’ offseason deals have shown, teams are determined to make the Browns’ Watson contract an outlier. Whereas Kirk Cousins received his fully guaranteed Vikings deal (three years, $84MM) in free agency, as the Jets lurked, four teams were vying for Watson via trade. The Browns only offered their shocking proposal after being eliminated earlier in the process.

With the Year 5 option and two franchise tags as leverage, the Ravens will not offer a $230MM guarantee. It will be interesting to learn what Baltimore has proposed, guarantee-wise. Those tag possibilities also can work in Jackson’s favor. Even the first of them, should the Ravens give Jackson the exclusive tag, would move toward the $45MM range. That would be an unprecedented cap-clogging figure for the team to navigate ahead of the 2023 free agency period. No deal coming together by Friday would put this saga on track toward tag No. 1 come March.

CLEVELAND

With QB DESHAUN WATSON not available until December, WR AMARI COOPER is still confident the Browns will get it done on offense. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Browns had high hopes for their offense when they traded for quarterback Deshaun Watson this offseason, but Watson won’t be leading the team in Sunday’s game against the Panthers.

It will be the first game of his 11-game suspension instead, which means Jacoby Brissett will be the signal caller. Brissett’s move to the first team has led many people to lower their expectations for the Browns heading into the season, but wide receiver Amari Cooper thinks those people are being too rash.

“Hopefully it’s going to be fireworks,” Cooper said, via 92.3 The Fan. “We definitely have the talent on this side of the ball to be everything we want to be. I would just say ‘wait and see.’ Why not? It’s right around the corner.”

If all goes well for the Browns, their defense will be stout enough to compensate for any drop in their offensive production with Brissett at quarterback and they’ll still be in the playoff hunt once Watson is allowed to return to action. Sunday will be the first chance to see how realistic that scenario might be.

PITTSBURGH

Pittsburgh’s initial depth chart this week showed QB MASON RUDOLPH as number two behind Captain QB MITCHELL TRUBISKY. But Mike Tomlin says that document was incorrect. Tim Benz of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:

I can empathize with Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin. In my line of work, I’ve certainly flubbed occasional cut-and-paste commands in documents, too.

A misidentified name. A stat line in the wrong place of the column. A quote in a story gets moved and doubled up.

Hey, it happens.

But if 711 people “like” the story on Twitter and 118 people retweet it and the same cut-and-paste error remains online, I would hope that someone would catch it and change it before roughly 20 hours go by.

That didn’t occur with the Steelers tweet on Monday announcing their official season-opening depth chart.

The initial release had Mason Rudolph as the top backup to starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky instead of rookie Kenny Pickett. That was despite Pickett taking much of the second-team action down the stretch of training camp and through the preseason. So there was significant questioning and confusion from media and fans surrounding the announcement throughout Monday afternoon and into Tuesday morning.

It wasn’t until 11:15 a.m. Tuesday when the Steelers adjusted the quarterback depth chart typo to illustrate Pickett as Trubisky’s top backup.

“It was a clerical error. That’s how the depth chart was listed at the start of training camp,” Tomlin said Tuesday. “So the cut-and-paste component was the cut-and-paste component. I know you were hoping for a little bit more colorful explanation, but it is what it is. That’s what happened.”

During his media Q&A, Tomlin insisted quarterbacks were told Monday that Trubisky was the starter, followed by Pickett and then Rudolph as the No. 3.

“We talked (Monday). They understood where we were, so I would imagine they viewed (the clerical error) as such,” Tomlin said.

Regardless of how the Steelers quarterbacks received the news, it makes more sense, in the end, to have Pickett be second in line after Trubisky.

I admit it, when I first saw Rudolph announced as the No. 2 QB, I rationalized it. I talked myself into thinking it made sense. Theoretically, early in the season, as Pickett is still getting used to NFL prep weeks as a rookie, maybe it’s wiser to have Rudolph at the ready as an in-game reliever out of the bullpen if Trubisky gets hurt. Rudolph has performed that role in the NFL. Pickett hasn’t.

– – –

So, with two road games against division rivals over the first three weeks, it may not have been the dumbest idea ever to avoid putting Pickett in a similar situation.

I get that argument. But at least what the Steelers have done now is streamline things. They’ve minimized some of the QB clutter they’ve created for themselves by having Trubisky, Pickett and Rudolph all still on the depth chart to start the season.

Trubisky is the starter. Pickett is the backup. And Rudolph is in “break glass in case of emergency” territory. That’s as opposed to Pickett being the long relief guy and Rudolph the spot starter or mop-up pitcher that some were assuming he’d be when the depth chart was first released.

Given how the offensive line has performed and how often Trubisky and Pickett have had to make plays on the run in the preseason and in training camp, both quarterbacks may have to absorb a lot of hits this season. So don’t be surprised if that QB depth chart changes multiple times throughout the year based on injury or performance.

So the Steelers better double-check the “cut-and-paste components” diligently before hitting send from here on out.

AFC SOUTH

JACKSONVILLE

The Jaguars are confident in the health of RB JAMES ROBINSON. Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:

Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said earlier this week that running back James Robinson will be in the lineup for Week One against the Commanders and Wednesday brought word that he will be operating without a net.

Robinson said that he’s felt “ready since the last couple of weeks of training camp” and that he “wouldn’t be out there” if he felt like there were any limitations on what he can do on the field. Pederson agreed that the team is not going into the game with any limits on what Robinson will be able to do.

“We have to get into the football game,” Pederson said, via the team’s website. “I’ve been in situations like this where you want to go in and control the pace of play with a guy like James, but if he’s feeling good and there hasn’t been any setbacks or anything, then you just go. You just roll with it.”

The Jaguars also have Travis Etienne in the backfield, so it’s unlikely that Robinson is going to be carrying too big a workload but any further hints about the exact look of the offense will have to wait for Sunday.

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com says that history has not been kind to the preseason Super Bowl favorites. Bills take note.

The Buffalo Bills are the easy Super Bowl favorite in the betting market. They have been building, are coming off a heartbreaking playoff loss, and have a tremendous roster. The Bills are +600 to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM.

That might not be the best news for the Bills, based on history.

The preseason Super Bowl favorite has actually won the Super Bowl at an alarmingly low rate this century. Keep that in mind before you load up on the Bills at those 6-to-1 odds.

Not many preseason Super Bowl favorites have won

Here’s the year-by-year preseason Super Bowl favorite and how they fared since the 2000 season, using SportsOddsHistory.com‘s archive:

2021: Chiefs +450 (lost AFC championship game)

2020: Chiefs +450 (lost Super Bowl)

2019: Patriots +400 (lost wild card round)

2018: Patriots +600 (WON SUPER BOWL)

2017: Patriots +275 (lost Super Bowl)

2016: Patriots +600 (WON SUPER BOWL)

2015: Seahawks +450 (lost divisional round)

2014: Seahawks +450 (lost Super Bowl)

2013: Broncos +600 (lost Super Bowl)

2012: Packers/Patriots +600 (lost divisional round/lost AFC championship)

2011: Patriots +500 (lost Super Bowl)

2010: Colts +800 (lost wild card round)

2009: Patriots +450 (lost wild card round)

2008: Patriots +350 (missed playoffs)

2007: Patriots +250 (lost Super Bowl)

2006: Colts +600 (WON SUPER BOWL)

2005: Colts/Patriots/Eagles +500 (lost divisional round/lost divisional round/missed playoffs)

2004: Eagles +500 (lost Super Bowl)

2003: Buccaneers +800 (missed playoffs)

2002: Rams +350 (missed playoffs)

2001: Rams +400 (lost Super Bowl)

2000: Rams +300 (lost wild card round)

That’s three winners in 22 seasons. Not too great.

However, the preseason Super Bowl favorite is usually a pretty good team. After a strange stretch from 2002-05 in which three preseason favorites or co-favorites missed the playoffs, only the 2008 Patriots didn’t make the playoffs. That was the year Tom Brady tore his ACL in Week 1, and the Patriots still went 11-5 and missed the playoffs due to tiebreakers.

In the 22-season sample size we’re using (there are 25 teams due to co-favorites in two different seasons), three preseason favorites made the Super Bowl and eight more made the Super Bowl and lost that game. That 3-8 record in Super Bowls for the preseason favorite is an oddity. Two others lost in the conference championship. That’s 13 of 25 teams (52 percent) that made the final four. Since 2008, all 13 preseason Super Bowl favorites or co-favorites have made the playoffs.

Of course, bettors don’t cash championship future tickets for their team coming close to winning it all. And there haven’t been too many tickets cashed on those preseason favorites over the past couple decades.

Will the Bills get a title?

It’s incredibly hard to win a Super Bowl. This isn’t college football, where the same few teams play in the playoffs every season and nobody else is a factor. The Bills might be favored, but plenty of NFL teams have a realistic expectation of making the Super Bowl this season.

In the playoffs, all it takes is one bad play to wreck a promising season. We saw many playoff games last season decided by a big play or two. The NFL is a competitive league. Every game is a challenge, especially when you’re down to the top 14 teams in the playoffs.

The Bills are favored to win a championship, and rightfully so. They have the best roster and a fairly easy path to a division title, and perhaps a No. 1 seed. But the history of preseason Super Bowl favorites tells us that it’s still pretty unlikely to happen.

Three preseason Super Bowl favorites (Patriots twice) have won the Super Bowl that year. Three have missed the playoffs completely.

This is the first time the Bills have been the preseason favorite in Schwab’s time frame. They are the 10^th different franchise to have that honor.

NEW YORK JETS

Look out, Joe Flacco. T DUANE BROWN may not be able to play Sunday against the Ravens. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

When the Jets lost offensive tackle Mekhi Becton for the season, they were thrilled to have veteran Duane Brown available. But now it’s looking like Brown may not be available for Sunday’s opener against the Ravens.

Brown is missing his second consecutive practice with a shoulder injury, and that injury is being evaluated today.

THIS AND THAT

QB INDEX

Each week during the season NFL.com ranks the starting QBs 1 to 32 with Marc Sessler taking over that assignment this year. Let’s see where he has them starting out the year. Is it Rodgers to Flacco? Allen to Gio Smith? Note, we have edited the comments for space, so you may think something is missing.

1 – Tom Brady

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Year 23

Awake in the dead of night, I computed that I’ve lived in 14 apartments/homes since Tom Brady was chosen in the sixth round of the 2000 NFL Draft. How many of us have seen our own children grow up during his unprecedented waltz through the wilds of pro football? At 45, Brady is coming off an ageism-busting campaign that saw him whip a league-high 719 passes and top everyone else on this list with 5,316 yards and 43 touchdowns. Then he walked off into the sunset, before returning at sunrise to accept the challenge of a 23rd season.

2 – Aaron Rodgers

Green Bay Packers · Year 18

His on-field technical greatness is post-debate. Rodgers is the closest offering we have to under-center perfection: precision lobs of the highest order mixed with pre-snap wonderment. His quartet of MVP nods reflect those gifts. The last time we saw him, though, frustration beamed outward against a Niners defense that stymied Green Bay’s quick-strike air attack and held the Packers to 10 points inside an ice-cold Lambeau Field in the NFC playoffs. It was Aa-Rod who later described himself as “numb” and openly pondered his playing future. A $150.8 million contract extension ended the drama, but Rodgers now approaches Sunday’s opener in Minnesota with his favorite wideout, Davante Adams, nestled in Las Vegas. One of the season’s richer mysteries is whether the pieced-together combination of Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins and rookies Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson can cover the loss of a dominant star pass-catcher who accounted for a 238/2,927/29 line over the past two seasons.

3 – Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills · Year 5

A star-crossed overtime coin toss robbed fans of seeing Allen match Patrick Mahomes in Buffalo’s psychologically gnarly postseason loss to the Chiefs. One simply assumes Buffalo’s do-everything signal-caller would have waltzed his squad down the field to cap a pair of thundering playoff performances that saw Allen unfurl nine touchdowns to zero picks. His season included a few rough days on the job, but Allen’s premier moments somehow outshined his star-is-born 2020 campaign. Employing his 6-foot-5, 237-pound frame to blast the enemy with his legs — when not scattering them with his titanic arm — Allen vibes primeval danger for a Bills team seen as the class of the AFC.

4 – Justin Herbert

Los Angeles Chargers · Year 3

Scary thought for the AFC West: We haven’t witnessed half of what Herbert can do. His second season would have told a different story had the defense not given up 34 points to Kansas City in a Week 15 overtime loss, 41 to the Texans (!) the following Sunday and 35 to Las Vegas in another killer fifth-frame defeat that ripped the Bolts from playoff contention. No passer has piled up more yards (9,350) over his first two campaigns or thrown more touchdowns (69).

5 – Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs · Year 6

Ranking aside, there’s plenty of evidence to label Mahomes as the greatest quarterback around. He’s coming off an eye-of-the-beholder campaign that lured pundits and bar patrons alike into weekly debate over what was going on with Kansas City’s otherwise godlike quarterback. The offense went sluggish for stretches, lacking the electric juice of days gone by. Still, Mahomes threw for 37 scores (fourth-most in the league) and put up a stout 17:3 TD-to-INT ratio from Week 10 on. He dazzled in playoff wins over the Steelers and Bills, but the attack’s own demons rose up in a mistake-prone crumble job against the Bengals in the AFC title game. With Tyreek Hill out of the building, Mahomes and the Chiefs enter a new phase under Andy Reid. I can’t drum up a coach/quarterback duo I trust more to figure it out.

6 – Joe Burrow

Cincinnati Bengals · Year 3

Burrow shook off his concerning rookie-year knee injury to craft one of football’s juiciest Cinderella stories. Showing off improved arm strength, the Bengals’ frontman survived a league-high 51 sacks by attacking downfield with the AFC’s top trio of pass-catchers in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd…Stats don’t tell the full story, though, with Burrow blooming into a swaggy, on-field cowboy who never blinked during a four-game Super Bowl run in which he absorbed another 19 takedowns. An improved front five and one of the AFC’s gaudiest collections of weapons has Burrow stationed as one of the game’s most watchable young arms.

7 – Lamar Jackson

Baltimore Ravens · Year 5

Jackson remains a central villain in the nightmares of defensive play-callers league-wide. He roamed as an MVP candidate a month into last season before riding the waves of erratic play and eventually bowing out for the year with an ankle injury….Lamar enters September as a bounce-back figure who can still do more with his physical gifts than 98.5 percent of the earth’s population. Pay the man!

8 – Matthew Stafford

Los Angeles Rams · Year 14

You have to live with the highs and lows. It worked for the Rams, as Stafford turned electric in January to guide Los Angeles to hallowed ground. …When he burned bright, Stafford channeled his “dark place” and permanently altered the narrative around his career. After a decade-plus in the wilds of Detroit, the Rams star is now a pitch man with acting chops. A weight has been lifted, as long as the elbow holds up.

9 – Dak Prescott

Dallas Cowboys · Year 7

A healthy Dak is a top-10 passer with a chance to soar higher. Playing behind a messy offensive line won’t help. Neither will a depleted group of receivers. If you still believe in the Cowboys, though, it has everything to do with A) their defense and B) magic spun by Prescott.

10 – Kyler Murray

Arizona Cardinals · Year 4

The Cardinals are a strange brew, but Kyler owns a sky-high ceiling if his body cooperates.

11 – Russell Wilson

Denver Broncos · Year 11

I struggle placing Wilson this low. He was sabotaged by last year’s thumb injury… I believe in the bounce-back, in Denver’s weapons and in the concept of a much-needed new landscape for one of the NFL’s most driven performers. The Broncos believe, too, handing the 33-year-old Wilson a monster extension that ties him to Denver for the next seven years. Should we have patience with Russ, dipped into a new offense with new teammates — in a bloodthirsty AFC West — under a first-time head coach in Nathaniel Hackett? Or has Denver paid richly for this quarterback’s decline era? It’s one of the season’s more engrossing TBDs.

12 – Derek Carr

Las Vegas Raiders · Year 9

Wherever you rank Carr, Raiders fans will be triggered. Coming off a season in which he blended high-octane play with unique leadership, Carr has all but shaken off the concept that he’s eternally stuck in the middle class. His arrow points up with the hiring of offensive-minded Josh McDaniels and the arrival of BFF Davante Adams.

13 – Kirk Cousins

Minnesota Vikings · Year 11

Our dear friend Chris Wesseling was the inventor of The Dalton Scale, which posited that Andy Dalton, during his Bengals run, represented the “prime meridian” of quarterbacks. The idea was that Dalton lacked the gifts to make his team markedly better, even if he couldn’t make it worse. His results were based on the roster around him…. The hope for Vikings fans is that first-time coach Kevin O’Connell — a polar opposite to reported Cousins antagonist Mike Zimmer — will push the right buttons.

14 – Ryan Tannehill

Tennessee Titans · Year 11

Carr wasn’t the only signal-caller dumped into soul-searching mode after falling to the Bengals. Tannehill told reporters his three-interception meltdown in the Divisional Round left him in a “dark place,” saying: “It’s a scar that I’ll carry with me throughout the rest of my life.” Tennessee then used a third-round pick on the utterly watchable Malik Willis. Still, I’ve long viewed Tannehill as an ideal fit for this Titans team. He operates as one of the game’s white-knuckle passers, winning over teammates with his choice to stand in the pocket and take brutal punishment as he unfurls the deep ball. His mobility is an asset, too, but he’s in a tough spot this season inside an A.J. Brown-free attack anchored by a troubled offensive line.

15 – Jalen Hurts

Philadelphia Eagles · Year 3

In his first season as head coach, Nick Sirianni employed creative flexibility to flip his offense into a run-heavy juggernaut following a 2-5 start. The shift made the most of Hurts on the ground, morphing the second-year starter into football’s leading rusher (784 yards) from under center. What Hurts can do with his legs has Fantasy Heads salivating over his floor, but he also grew as a passer.

16 – Matt Ryan

Indianapolis Colts · Year 15

Ryan’s MVP season with the Falcons was more than half a decade ago. He’ll never sniff those heights again, but he’s exactly what the doctor ordered in Indy. At 37, Ryan has been praised all offseason for the steady leadership he’s brought to the job, with coach Frank Reich saying: “You don’t have to dig too deep to find that out.”

17 – Mac Jones

New England Patriots · Year 2

Easily the most impressive rookie passer from a year ago, Mac enjoyed a hot start that tailed off down the stretch. Coached up by Josh McDaniels, the former Alabama star leaned on his strengths — his accuracy and field awareness — to offset a lack of top-tier arm power. In a vacuum, I want to ticket him for a step forward. I’m in wait-and-see mode after a summer flush with heavy critique over New England’s transition on offense

18 – Jameis Winston

New Orleans Saints · Year 8

Sean Payton’s retirement came at the wrong time for Winston. …. Will the Saints let Winston cook up his lovable brand of madness with wideout Michael Thomas back in the fold alongside rookie Chris Olave and the reliable Jarvis Landry? Can Winston stay healthy enough — and banish mistakes of old — to stave off The Glowing Red Ginger Man?

19 – Tua Tagovailoa

Miami Dolphins · Year 3

I expect new coach Mike McDaniel to milk the best out of his quarterback in a yards-after-the-catch attack that will allow Tua to whip his share of downfield strikes behind a line that’s improved with the additions of Terron Armstead and Connor Williams.

20 – Carson Wentz

Washington Commanders · Year 7

If you learned a year ago that Wentz would throw 27 touchdowns to just seven interceptions for Indianapolis, you’d imagine the Colts would approve. All team brass recalled was the ending, though, a two-game hard melt that saw Wentz struggle in a loss to the Raiders before handing the season away in a psyche-slashing 26-11 loss to the Jaguars in Week 18. It feels excessive to pile on what’s become such an easy target, but Wentz created many of his own on-field issues with the Eagles and Colts. That Washington sought him so desperately this past March is one of the NFL’s more puzzling offseason chapters.

21 – Jared Goff

Detroit Lions · Year 7

I’m not pairing Wentz and Goff together for giggles. I suspect Goff has a chance to rise toward the middle of the pack if his camp and preseason work are indications of tomorrow. He sits inside an offense that plays to his strengths.

22 – Baker Mayfield

Carolina Panthers · Year 5

I worry about Mayfield behind Carolina’s wait-and-see offensive line. In Cleveland, Baker did plenty of good for a long-suffering Browns club, but his on-stage performance was all over the map when the pocket crumbled.

23 – Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville Jaguars · Year 2

Real talk: This is a projection. Lawrence was in a terrible situation as a rookie inside a locker room actively burning to the ground under the watch of an asleep-at-the-wheel Urban Meyer. It’s tough to undersell the steady hand Doug Pederson will bring to last year’s first overall pick. Lawrence was hot and cold in the preseason — a few too many off-target lobs — but also boasted the expected arm strength and athleticism Jaguars fans are hoping to see on Sundays.

24 – Trey Lance

San Francisco 49ers · Year 2

Projection No. 2: I don’t know. You don’t know. I don’t think Kyle Shanahan knows. I’d prefer to have the promise of Lance on my team over a handful of the dudes above — and everyone below. On a win-now roster, though, it’s clear Shanahan sleeps better at night with safety blanket Jimmy Garoppolo in reach. Lance’s August laser beams stirred the imagination, but he also struggled with accuracy in spurts behind shaky line play.

25 – Justin Fields

Chicago Bears · Year 2

Concerns around Fields begin with an O-line that appears a tick below competent. The Bears did little to surround their second-year quarterback with the brand of weaponry gifted to the Joe Burrows and Josh Allens of the world.

26 – Daniel Jones

New York Giants · Year 4

Remember when Jones operated behind a reliable offensive line with a full complement of weapons and someone other than Jason Garrett calling plays? Me neither.

27 – Geno Smith

Seattle Seahawks · Year 10

Smith didn’t have to put up much of a fight to win Seattle’s starting job. Drew Lock missed the second preseason game after testing positive for COVID-19 and fell to pieces upon his return to the field. That’s not to take away from Smith’s summer play, though, as he proved more comfortable in the offense.

28 – Joe Flacco

New York Jets · Year 15

Constant as the sun: Jets fans being yanked through the ringer come September. They deserve joy. To feel that tingle in the loins as a green-clad passer rips through a Belichick defense for 422 yards and five touchdowns. That figure won’t be Zach Wilson — out until at least Week 4, per coach Robert Saleh — as the second-year starter heals from August knee surgery. You can’t help but wonder if the Jets simply feel more comfortable with Flacco.

29 – Marcus Mariota

Atlanta Falcons · Year 8

Mariota is Atlanta’s starter, but it certainly appears coach Arthur Smith wants to see rookie Desmond Ridder at some stage.

30 – Mitchell Trubisky

Pittsburgh Steelers · Year 6

Trubisky has looked the part for Pittsburgh leading up to Week 1. He toiled behind a Steelers offensive line that somehow looked more lost than last year’s. Mitch made the most of it, tossing crisp passes and dragging the offense out of dark corners with his legs. He’s your Week 1 starter and a team captain. I don’t think he’ll be a longtime featured member of this column, though, after rookie hometown sensation Kenny Pickett torched the field all August.

31 – Davis Mills

Houston Texans · Year 2

He’s arguably being disrespected on this list. Mills grew in esteem on a rough roster while Mariota and Trubisky held clipboards and chewed sunflower seeds last season. He outshone Lawrence and Lance. He’s a work in progress, but Mills proved to NFL watchers he could sling it with power while looking the part. Inside the building, Houston’s front office thought enough of his development to ignore quarterbacks in the draft and abstain from chasing Jimmy Garoppolo.

32 – Jacoby Brissett

Cleveland Browns · Year 7

It says something that Cleveland chose to ride out Deshaun Watson’s 11-game ban with Brissett over making a push to acquire Jimmy Garoppolo. I don’t love Brissett’s chances inside a Browns offense that is paper thin at wideout, but he brings the experience of 37 NFL starts. Cleveland’s ground game can do the heavy lifting if Jacoby can hit the brakes on his 12 career fumbles. Guide this club to 6-5 by Watson’s return, and Brissett has done his job.

DB thoughts – Kyler Murray is too high at #11. Davis Mills is too low at #31.

EXPECTATIONS FOR SB LONG SHOTS

Josh Edwards at CBSSports.com looks at reasonable 2022 expectations for those at the bottom of the current odds:

The NFL regular season is upon us, but the outlook for each team is not equal.

Positives are achievable for those teams even if they fall short of the ultimate goal.

CBSSports.com explores the best-case scenario for teams with +10000 or worse odds, according to Caesars Sportsbook. Six of the teams in last year’s version found themselves back on this year’s list. Only the Raiders, Bengals and Eagles graduated.

Giants (+10000)

New York has already made the decision to decline Daniel Jones’ fifth-year option, making him a free agent after the season. With first-year head coach Brian Daboll, the Giants would benefit by getting some clarity on Jones’ future within the organization. Has poor coaching and instability contributed to his struggles? And will Daboll be able to elevate his play to a new level? If not, the franchise can move on next offseason with a clear conscience.

Otherwise, the hope is that the draft selections of Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux and Alabama offensive tackle Evan Neal prove to be building blocks in the trenches for many years. New York, as a team, should be closer to picking in the teens than No. 1 overall.

Panthers (+12500)

There are questions regarding whether or not the objectives of ownership align with the goals of head coach Matt Rhule. The addition of veteran quarterback Baker Mayfield provides the franchise with better play this season, but it is likely that it reaches the same conclusion Cleveland came to this offseason; it needs an upgrade to reach the ultimate goal of winning the Super Bowl. In the meantime, will Mayfield do too much for the Panthers to be in a position to draft one of the top quarterback prospects next April?

The best-case scenario for Carolina is that the defensive collection of cornerback Jaycee Horn, defensive tackle Derrick Brown, safety/linebacker Jeremy Chinn, edge rusher Brian Burns and others take the next step while Mayfield is able to offer offensive stability.

Lions (+12500)

The players in the Motor City seem to be buying into what head coach Dan Campbell is preaching. It is really difficult to hold a team’s attention when on-field results do not match expectations, but Campbell has done just that heading into Year 2. Jared Goff has been fine for the Lions, but he has not played to a level warranting a $30+ million salary cap hit each of the next two seasons. In an ideal world, Detroit would show some growth as a team while being in a position to take a quarterback early next April. The selection of a top quarterback prospect would allow them to reset the salary cap clock while potentially raising the ceiling at the position.

Jaguars (+12500)

Anything would be an improvement over what happened in Duval County a year ago. The hire of head coach Doug Pederson was a step in the right direction because he will provide stability to the organization. Trevor Lawrence playing at a level that validates the use of the No. 1 overall selection is the best outcome, though. He has a skillset capable of maximizing the talent around him and yet it was stifled in 2021. If the head coach and quarterback are on the same page, then the organization will be in a much healthier position moving forward.

The icing on the cake would be No. 1 overall selection Travon Walker establishing himself as a viable threat opposite Josh Allen.

Bears (+15000)

Some head coaches are able to create structure and accountability despite an insufficient amount of talent on the roster. The situation in Chicago is not what it is always going to be, and that hope is what motivates the Bears right now. Head coach Matt Eberflus has commanded the team’s respect to this point. If they are able to ride the waves, then a sunset awaits on the other side. The hope would be that Justin Fields rides that wave with them. The upcoming season should provide some clarity on the Ohio State product. Chicago may be in a position to pick early, and the Giants no longer hold its first-round pick.

In addition to information gathering on Fields, the Bears would ideally find a few building blocks along that offensive line while all of the resources devoted to the secondary — cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon and safety Jaquan Brisker — gel together.

Jets (+15000)

The Jets’ 2022 NFL Draft class was almost unanimously praised. They added four players in the top 40: cornerback Sauce Gardner, wide receiver Garrett Wilson, edge rusher Jermaine Johnson II and running back Breece Hall. Despite the excitement of introducing those players to the NFL, the upcoming season will be defined by the progress shown by second-year quarterback Zach Wilson. If questions about Wilson’s future linger, then it could cost the team multiple years of the anticipated rookie class’ contracts at a reasonable rate. New York needs to take that next step and win six-plus games.

Seahawks (+20000)

Best-case scenario for Seattle entails the team finishing the season with one of the worst records in the NFL and being in a position to take one of the top quarterback prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft. The lack of interest in upgrading the quarterback position this offseason leads me to believe that has been the plan since trading Russell Wilson to Denver. The selection of a quarterback and another top prospect via Denver could expedite a rebuild under the direction of head coach Pete Carroll. In the meantime, getting strong play from offensive tackles Abraham Lucas and Charles Cross, as well as cornerbacks Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant, would be a delicious appetizer.

Falcons (+25000)

Veteran quarterback Marcus Mariota is well-traveled, and there is little more for teams to see of the former No. 2 overall selection. Third-round selection Desmond Ridder is almost certain to get some playing time this season. However, it is unlikely that he is capable of doing enough in such a small sample size to dissuade the team from taking a quarterback early in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Off the field, a resolution in Calvin Ridley’s case would allow the team and player to move forward and leave the past behind. Tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receiver Drake London could develop into one of the more feared pass-catching duos in the NFC South.

Texans (+30000)

Houston owns a second first-round selection in the 2023 NFL Draft from the Browns as part of the Deshaun Watson trade. Best-case scenario for the Texans includes Cleveland struggling this season and returning a top-10 overall selection to the Lone Star State. If the franchise is in a position to draft top 3 next April, it is going to take a quarterback regardless of what Davis Mills is able to accomplish this season.

As an organization, it is in such an odd position after employing four head coaches, including interim Romeo Crennel, over the past three years. David Culley was fired after one season, and it felt as though the team was destined to hire Brian Flores. When that did not come to fruition, the coaching search became very messy and unpredictable. Firing Lovie Smith after one season would be a bad look, but it is difficult to envision him being a mainstay in Houston.

If a visitor from the future told you that one of these teams did what the Bengals did last year – made the Super Bowl, who would you pick?

The Jets with their big rookie class transforming them – but the Bills?

Like the Jets, the Bears and Jaguars have 2^nd-year QBs who could make a Burrow-like jump. But the rest of their teams?

The Lions with their newfound enthusiasm and a midseason injection from WR JAMESON WILLIAMS – but the Packers?

The Panthers with QB BAKER MAYFIELD going crazy around a good nucleus – but the Bucs and Saints?

We must admit, we are not really seeing it for any of these 9 teams. But that visitor from the future assures us it happens.

The Daily Briefing Thursday, September 8, 2022

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