The Daily Briefing Thursday, September 9, 2021

GREEN BAY

With the opener three days away, QB AARON RODGERS seems to be in a good place as what is likely to be his final season with the Packers dawns.  Bill Huber of SI.com:

It wasn’t a guarantee about six weeks ago, but Aaron Rodgers on Sunday will be the Green Bay Packers’ starting quarterback for the 14th consecutive season-opening game.

“I think the first start in 2008 [against Chicago] was a little different than this one, and then I think the ’19 opener [against Chicago] was probably a little different, too, with a new system,” Rodgers, looking ahead to a Week 1 showdown against the New Orleans Saints, said on Wednesday. “Those ones felt a little bit different nerves-wise. The 2011 one after winning the Super Bowl was probably the most fun and special, playing the Saints, got off to a really fast start and held on for a win there. Yeah, we’ve done pretty good.”

Indeed, a 10-3 record in season-opening games – often against elite teams like they’ll face in Jacksonville on Sunday – is pretty good. This team, however, has designs on being more than pretty good.

It wants to be the best.

First, there’s the past. Green Bay is coming off back-to-back losses in the NFC Championship Game, including last year’s bitter loss at home to Tampa Bay. It came up empty both times.

Second, there’s the future. In 12 months, will Rodgers be here to start a 15th consecutive opener?

So, Rodgers is focused squarely on the present. As he continues his decade-long hunt for that second Super Bowl championship, time is of the essence to not let another opportunity slip through his one-ring fingers.

From that standpoint, with Rodgers’ uncertain future and the Packers staring at enormous salary-cap challenges for next offseason, there’s a different reality surrounding the start of this season. This could be the end of the line for the corps of this team. That might seem like an enormous amount of pressure, but Rodgers doesn’t see it that way.

“It definitely does” feel different, Rodgers said. “There is a lot of unknowns. So, the right perspective is needed, I think, from all of us. But I think we don’t feel pressure. I’m speaking personally and I can’t speak for everybody. But the feel that I get with the energy in the locker room is not pressure. It’s focus. I think it’s the right perspective and the right type of focus. We know we have a talented team, we know what the expectations are.”

Rodgers isn’t the only superstar grappling with an uncertain future. All-Pro receiver Davante Adams is entering his final season under contract. As the league’s best receiver, he’s in line for a huge payday. It won’t be coming before Sunday, Adams said unequivocally, and it might not happen at all given the Packers are almost $50 million over next year’s cap.

Rodgers and Adams aren’t just two of the best players on the team but they’re also part of the heart and soul of a team that reached conference championship games in 2014, 2016, 2019 and 2020 but lost them all. Adams said there’s “no excuse but to go take care of business” this season. Having scaled the mountain to reach the summit among today’s receivers, a Super Bowl is what Adams craves more than anything.

Adams likes the “vibe” he feels from his teammates.

“This is probably the hungriest team that I’ve ever been around, honestly, just because we have been so close a number of times now,” Adams said. “So, I feel like everybody in the back of their mind, they know how reachable it is and realistic we are to getting to that final step. We just haven’t really had the opportunity to showcase what we can do in the real dance. Just being so close a few times, it opens up everybody’s eyes. It’s like, ‘All right, we’re going to go deep into the playoffs.’ We’ve got a team that we won 13 games back-to-back years, that’s really tough to do. It’s hard to win one game in this league.

“So, just realizing when you get that close so many times, I think it’s kind of a little bit of a wake-up call to people just how good we actually are. It’s a real determined and definitely a different type of focus, and I feel like the young guys understand what’s been going on before they got here.”

There’s a certain amount of irony in the fact Rodgers could leave Green Bay after this season because of his frustration with the way general manager Brian Gutekunst has gone about his business, but the Packers are well over next year’s cap because of Gutekunst’s aggressive approach in keeping a championship-caliber roster together.

Regardless of whether Rodgers is back as the starter in 2022, and regardless of whether the Packers win a championship or fall frustratingly short yet again, massive change seems inevitable.

The reality is this is it. Gutekunst mortgaged the future to keep this group mostly together for one more run. Chances are the likes of Rodgers, Adams and beloved veteran tight end Marcedes Lewis won’t get another shot together.

“We’re going to enjoy this year for all that it has to offer, and each other,” Rodgers said, “and I think that’s the right perspective to have when you get in this situation.”

CAROLINA

Robert Mays of The Athletic on how the Panthers came to have QB SAM DARNOLD and what they are doing about fixing him:

The Panthers’ idea to pursue Sam Darnold happened in an unconventional way. In the lead up to free agency, Rhule and his defensive staff were studying a defensive player who’d played against the Jets last season. As they tried to focus on the defender in question, Rhule’s assistants kept getting sidetracked by the splash plays that Darnold repeatedly made. “‘[They] just kept on remarking, ‘Man, he makes a ton of wild plays,’” Rhule said. “And so, we went back and I studied a bunch of games. You just saw he made plays when there was an opportunity for them to be made.”

It was no secret that Carolina wanted a new quarterback this spring. The Panthers reportedly offered a package to the Lions for Mathew Stafford that included the eighth overall pick. After Detroit shipped Stafford to the Rams for a pair of first-round picks and a deal for Texans’ quarterback Deshaun Watson never materialized, Carolina was running out of options.

Like Wentz, Darnold’s 2020 tape was often hard to watch. He threw 11 interceptions and just nine touchdowns in 12 starts. Darnold completed 59.6 percent of his passes, bringing his career average to a lowly 59.8 percent. During his three years as the Jets’ starter, the only quarterbacks with at least 500 dropbacks who produced a lower EPA/dropback other than Darnold were Blake Bortles, Dwayne Haskins, and Josh Rosen.

Turning around a quarterback with that level of production over such an extended period would essentially be unprecedented in the modern NFL, but the Panthers’ staff believed that Darnold — who was only 23 years old during the 2020 season — still had room to grow. As Rhule points out, Peyton Manning was only 22 and had started 45 college games when he was drafted first overall in 1998. “Now, guys are coming out at the age of 20 and 21,” Rhule said. “And so, I just think you look at a guy at 23 years old and say to yourself, ‘Hey, has he had an opportunity yet to master his craft? Or is he just learning?’”

After Rhule approached general manager Scott Fitterer about chasing Darnold, the front office and coaching staff dove headfirst into their evaluation, studying Darnold as though he was a rookie QB prospect rather than a multi-year starter. They prioritized traits over polish, flash over the finished product. In their estimation, the physical tools that had made Darnold a top-3 pick in 2018 were still apparent. “Guys got a cannon, a quick release, all those things,” Rhule said. “It was just a matter of, ‘Hey, can we discipline his process and discipline his decision-making?’”

With the skill set no longer in question, Rhule moved his attention to whether Darnold had the right makeup to potentially make good on his immense talent. The reviews that Rhule got from coaches who’d worked with Darnold were exemplary across the board, and he also had his own experience to draw from. In early 2019, Rhule interviewed to be the next head coach of the Jets. As part of the process, he met with Darnold and left impressed by a 21-year-old quarterback who’d just finished his rookie season. “His focus and his mindset was so team, team, team,” Rhule said. “That stuck out to me. I had that one interaction with him and it was just like, ‘Hey, this guy has got his head on straight.’”

When the Panthers decided that it was worth inquiring about Darnold, they fortunately had a direct line to Jets’ general manager Joe Douglas. Carolina’s vice president of player personnel Pat Stewart had been a part of the Eagles’ front office with Douglas in 2018 and was able to get the ball rolling on the discussions. Fitterer got involved shortly after, and about a month before the draft, the deal was done.

Owners of the eighth overall pick, Fitterer and the Panthers figured a quarterback might be available to them in the first round. But in their minds, dealing lesser picks for Darnold allowed Carolina to land a young quarterback and chase an elite cornerback prospect in the top 10. The Panthers eventually landed on South Carolina’s Jaycee Horn, whose aggressive approach to the position aligned with what Carolina wants out of its corners. Misguided or not, the Panthers saw the Darnold-Horn combo as a way to potentially have their cake and eat it too.

Rhule says that after Darnold arrived in the building, the focus was less on tweaking his mechanics and more on rewiring his mindset for the position. In his time with the Jets, Darnold developed a nasty habit of trying to make the heroic play when the situation around him started to deteriorate. Carolina’s bet on Darnold is a bet on how the Panthers’ collection of receiving talent and Joe Brady’s offense can lessen the load on the quarterback’s shoulders.

Last season, Darnold ranked 34th among 40 qualified quarterbacks in Expected Completion Percentage, a Next Gen Stats metric used to determine the difficulty of a quarterback’s throws based on separation, air yards, and other factors. The Jets’ struggles to get receivers open continued with backup quarterback Joe Flacco, who ranked 39th by the same metric. Compare that to former Panthers starter Teddy Bridgewater, who ranked ninth in the same category. Darnold also took a league-leading 22 sacks against man coverage in 2020, an indication that the Jets’ receivers had issues creating separation when challenged by opposing corners.

Few pass-catching groups around the league are more different than last year’s Jets and this year’s Panthers. Robby Anderson, the Jets’ best weapon during Darnold’s time with the franchise, is just one of several capable options on Carolina’s offense.

The recently extended Anderson and former first-round pick D.J. Moore both tallied more than 1,000 receiving yards last year, and the Panthers spent even more resources at the position by drafting LSU standout Terrace Marshall with the 59th overall pick. The Panthers also happen to feature one of the league’s most dangerous pass-catching backs in Christian McCaffrey. In terms of pure receiving talent, Darnold has made one of the biggest upgrades imaginable.

“Let Christian, let those guys carry the brunt of it,” Rhule said of their message to Darnold. “And you just go out there and do your thing. When you watch the great quarterbacks, they do that. They trust their players to make plays.”

The Panthers are banking heavily on their excellent group of receivers to make things easier for Darnold, but much like the situation in Indianapolis, their trade for a distressed-asset quarterback is a vote of confidence in their play caller. Carolina’s brass has extreme faith in offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s ability to articulate the team’s system to Darnold and clearly lay out what the Panthers are trying to accomplish on a given play.

By distilling the vision to Darnold, the hope is that he can play faster and alleviate some of the hero-ball issues that plagued him with the Jets. Carolina’s offensive line is still very much a work in progress without an established left tackle and unproven talent in other spots along the line, but the idea is that Brady’s preference for giving his five eligible receivers will allow Darnold to protect himself in the same way that Joe Burrow could at LSU. Last season, about 76 percent of Teddy Bridgewater’s attempts came with just 5 blockers – one of the highest rates in the NFL. “I think the biggest thing is just playing within the system, don’t try to do too much, don’t try to win the game yourself,” Rhule said. “Just go out there and just play, play by play, just do what we ask you to do, and things will eventually take care of themselves.”

NEW ORLEANS

Few players in the NFL in recent years have been a productive in advancing the football through the air as QB JAMEIS WINSTON.  But no QB has thrown anywhere near as many interceptions.  Can he do the former, but not the latter, with the Saints?  Mike Triplett of ESPN.com:

Jameis Winston said he feels “blessed and grateful” to be making his first start in two years for the New Orleans Saints this week. And he said he and his teammates will be playing for the people of New Orleans and the Gulf South region in the wake of Hurricane Ida.

“First of all, I’ve got something on my heart,” Winston said when he opened his first news conference since being chosen as New Orleans’ starter. “I want to say thank you to all the first responders in New Orleans and all the people on the ground right now and all the grassroots organizations [working] to help our city be resilient. … We’re with you. We’re gonna represent you.”

Winston followed by asking anyone from the Gulf South region or Florida to try to make it to Sunday’s “home” game against the Green Bay Packers, which has been relocated to Jacksonville while New Orleans is still recovering from the hurricane.

“We need all our Saints fans out there,” Winston said.

Winston, 27, will be making his first start with the Saints after he joined the team last year to back up Drew Brees and try to revive his career. The former Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall draft pick went 28-42 as a starter during his first five seasons with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before they decided to move on from him after his rookie contract expired and replaced him with Tom Brady.

Winston beat Taysom Hill for New Orleans’ starting gig this summer following Brees’ retirement. Winston sealed the deal with a stellar performance in the Saints’ second preseason game, completing 9 of 10 passes for 123 yards and two deep touchdowns to receiver Marquez Callaway.

“It felt great [to be named the starter],” Winston said. “It’s just fun, it’s a blessing to have the opportunity to lead the pack. I’m just grateful for it. It’s been more than a year removed for me having an opportunity, and I’m not taking anything for granted. And I’m just blessed and grateful.

“And I’m grateful to my teammates for pushing me, I’m grateful to Taysom for pushing me.”

Winston has focused on improving his decision-making, among other things, after he infamously became the first player in NFL history to throw at least 30 touchdown passes and 30 interceptions in the same season in 2019 — while also leading the NFL with 5,109 passing yards.

Asked what the next step is for him now, he said, “Just consistent preparation, that’s the biggest thing.”

“We’re preparing for the Green Bay Packers,” Winston said. “We’ve got a lot of stuff going on, but we’ve got to be consistent in our day-to-day preparation. We cannot lose focus and go out there ready to play and give our best efforts.”

The Saints have been training in the Dallas area since evacuating New Orleans on Aug. 28 because of Ida, first using the Cowboys’ facilities, then using TCU’s facilities throughout this week.

“I think it’s more difficult for the people that’s actually going through a lot right now. We were blessed by this organization to relocate us to Dallas,” said Winston, whose Dream Forever Foundation delivered supplies this week to first responders, including food, water, generators, gas and roofing materials. “We’ve gotta represent them, we’re feeding off them. They’re persevering and they’re being resilient right now, and we have to do the same. There’s a lot of people that are in way more difficult situations than we are.

The Saints are hopeful that they will only play one neutral site home game.  Tyler Sullivan of CBSSports.com:

On Wednesday, New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell said that the Saints should be able to play at home on October 3 when they face the New York Giants. That’s the Saints’ second home game of the season, so if all goes according to plan they’d only be away from Caesars Superdome for one week. In Weeks 2 and 3, New Orleans is on the road facing the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots, respectively.

According to reports, the Superdome did not sustain any structural damage during Hurricane Ida, but the city of New Orleans completely lost power, which naturally makes an attempt at playing an NFL game there next to impossible.

As for where they’ll be playing this Sunday against Green Bay, TIAA Bank Field was down the list quite a bit on the Saints’ list to find a temporary home. Closer venues — like Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta and NRG Stadium in Houston — have NFL games occurring that day. While the Dallas Cowboys will begin their season on Thursday in Tampa, AT&T Stadium was unavailable due to a previously scheduled concert, making Jacksonville the eventual choice for Sunday’s opener.

SEATTLE

Michael Shawn Dugar in The Athletic on QB RUSSELL WILSON, Coach Pete Carroll and urgency around the Seahawks:

The Seahawks enter every season with championship aspirations. Any team quarterbacked by Russell Wilson and coached by Pete Carroll is going to operate this way.

But this season feels different. More urgent, really. It feels as if the Seahawks aren’t just expecting to win a championship — it feels like there will be drastic consequences if they don’t win it all, or at least make it to the big game.

Wilson rarely does local media appearances outside of routine news conferences unless he has something to say. It was telling that the quarterback on Aug. 25 decided to do an interview with KIRO-AM’s Stacy Rost and Jake Heaps, who is Wilson’s friend and offseason coach.

Wilson in that interview said he feels the first half of the 2020 season represents who he is and what he’s capable of.

“That’s just the reality, that’s just the truth,” he said.

It’s not a stretch to assume that Wilson feels the second half of the season is not indicative of who he is as a quarterback or what he’s capable of. Wilson and Carroll can agree on that much. Wilson in the first half of the season was as excellent as a quarterback can be in this league. In the second half of the season, his production resembled that of a below-average passer. How that regression happened was the million-dollar question for the Seahawks after the season. Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer couldn’t agree on a solution, and their differing opinions led to Schottenheimer’s firing. Wilson disagreed with Carroll’s decision to fire Schottenheimer but could he ultimately agree with Carroll on how to retool the offense?

This conundrum is what made Wilson’s offseason frustrations so fascinating — because it indicated the answer was no. Wilson’s camp tossed the quarterback’s career sack totals out publicly as a jab at the pass protection he has been given throughout his career. Wilson said he’d like more input in personnel decisions. And his camp broached potential trade destinations with the Seahawks.

In March, I wrote that calling Wilson to smooth things over should be atop Seattle’s offseason to-do list. It’s unclear who initiated the conversation, but it came to fruition. Wilson in July told Dan Patrick that he and Carroll became “even closer” this offseason, improving what he believes was “a great bond” thanks in part to a chat they had after the drama went public.

“We got to have a great heart to heart,” Wilson told Patrick. “He’s got goals, I’ve got goals. We want to do great things. To actually really dive into those and really talk about those missions, those goals, it was fun. Me and Coach Carroll’s relationship is stronger than ever.”

After visiting the Seahawks during his tour of training camps across the league, NBC’s Peter King wrote that Wilson and Carroll in that heart to heart tried “to iron out their issues” in the offseason. Both Carroll and Wilson told King, “It was a great discussion.” But even King expressed skepticism that everything had been patched up.

Carroll addressed the discussion for the first time during a news conference on Sept. 1.

“We were just dealing with what was going on in the media and how we were going to move forward together,” Carroll said. “We just revisited all of the foundation and the background and the vision for the future and all of those things we would often touch base on, but this was — we regrouped, that’s basically what happened.

“There’s so much commonality to how we think and how we approach stuff,” the coach continued. “It was really a process of revisiting that and remembering who we were and what we’re all about and that’s really what took place. It was a long talk. I’m glad that he saw it was really valuable to both of us moving forward.”

– – –

As he demonstrated this offseason, falling short makes Wilson angry. Being frustrated in private is one thing but Wilson’s willingness to broach trade destinations and publicly reveal his preferred destinations indicates he’s reaching a new level of discontent.

Carroll and Wilson have both described the chatter about Wilson’s future with the Seahawks as “overblown” and the coach has consistently framed the fact everything went public as the biggest issue. Carroll could be doing this because he has nothing to gain by publicly addressing Wilson’s concerns with the media, but the reality is any unresolved issue the quarterback has by the end of the season could potentially result in the end of the most successful QB-head coach pairing this franchise has ever seen.

The key to avoiding this divorce is obvious: win. The NFC West. The conference. And then a Super Bowl. Wilson may have a preferred method of winning, but he ultimately just wants to be handed the Lombardi Trophy at the season’s end. If the Seahawks come up short, on offense in particular, then another drama-filled offseason may be on the horizon.

The tools are there for the offense to succeed. Wilson is one of the most talented players in the NFL and despite the theatrics in the spring, he spent most of the offseason preparing as hard as he ever has for the upcoming season. In addition to the workouts and chemistry-building sessions with teammates he hosts at his home in San Diego, Wilson re-connected with his college coach, Dana Bible, and enlisted the help of trainer Tim Grover, known primarily for his work with Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant.

Why did Wilson call Grover? “I have a mission to win and win often,” he said. Wilson will not reveal many details regarding the specifics of his work with Grover aside from simulating “chaotic situations,” to prepare for the high-stress environments Wilson is often in as a quarterback. Couple that with Wilson’s work with mental conditioning coach Trevor Moawad, who has taught Wilson the art of neutral thinking, and it’s a safe bet that Seattle’s franchise passer is as focused as he’s ever been.

His cupboard is once again filled with weapons. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett form one of the best receiving tandems in the league. Second-round pick Dee Eskridge should be a fun toy to toss into the mix as the season progresses. Gerald Everett is a talented pass-catching tight end, as is fourth-year tight end Will Dissly. Chris Carson is the best running back Wilson has had since Marshawn Lynch’s retirement.

Up front, Seattle returns three starters: left tackle Duane Brown, left guard Damien Lewis (he played right guard last year) and right tackle Brandon Shell. This is a reliable trio. Adding veteran Gabe Jackson into the fold should be an upgrade over the recently retired Mike Iupati. The question mark is center — Kyle Fuller took the job from Ethan Pocic, who was injured during training camp. Fuller’s only start in 2020 came against the Rams in Week 10; he allowed six pressures and zero sacks in 51 pass blocking snaps, according to TruMedia. It’s unclear how Fuller will perform, though if the unit is improved in 2021, it should feature the best pass protection Wilson has ever had. The defensive side of the ball plays a role in this equation as well, though the offense feels like more of a factor.

And in that regard, this is potentially a make-or-break season for the Wilson and Carroll era for the same reason Carroll had to part with Schottenheimer: philosophical differences.

If the Seahawks fail playing a brand of football Wilson feels is skewed toward Carroll’s preferences, then Wilson could consider their differences irreconcilable. Wilson wants to pick up the pace offensively, have command of the offense, avoid slow starts and score points as often as possible.

“The thing for us is executing all of the details, being aggressive. And that means every opportunity — whether it’s the run or pass game — having that aggressive mentality, every time we touch the ball, we’re scoring,” Wilson said in camp. “That sense, that tempo, and that aggression going after the defense is really key.”

Carroll likes a “balanced” offense, one that runs a bit more than it passes in neutral situations but excels in both facets of the game. He believes in establishing the run and imposing one’s will physically. He wants to be explosive in the passing game, largely through play action. Carroll’s way of doing business has produced championships at multiple levels of competition. Even as the league as a whole adopts a pass-heavy approach, Carroll has an argument to emphasize the importance of a run game that is married to the passing game. Many football minds across the league would agree with this approach.

The crux of Seattle’s dilemma: whether Carroll’s style of play fits the type of player Wilson has become. Wilson feels he’s more superstar than game manager. More Mahomes than Garoppolo. If he views himself this way, why continue to operate in an offense that doesn’t treat him accordingly, especially if he’s not reaching the mountain top? Seattle can define a successful season by making sure Wilson doesn’t have to grapple with that question when the year is over.

There are limitations to Wilson’s leverage if he wants to pair any future discontent with action. It’ll take an ugly, ugly chain of events to get him in another uniform this time next year if things don’t shake out how they should when the season kicks off this weekend. But for now, the logistics aren’t as important as the fact the end of an era is far more fathomable than it’s been in recent years. And that’s what makes this Seahawks season so significant.

Two additional remarks stood out in Wilson’s radio interview. The first, Wilson declaring that one of his biggest pet peeves is wasting time. The second, Wilson revealing a character trait that separates him from everyone else.

“A lot of people have other hobbies,” Wilson said. “People have hobbies like video games or whatever it may be. I have a few hobbies. Number one is winning.”

CINCINNATI

WR JA’MARR CHASE is having issues with the NFL football.  Michael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com:

Bengals rookie wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase has an interesting excuse for the dropped passes that have plagued him in the preseason: He says he’s still adjusting to the change from the NFL football to the NCAA football.

The NFL and NCAA do not use the exact same specifications for their footballs, meaning the balls used in college football can be slightly smaller. The balls used in college football also have white stripes on either end, while NFL footballs have no stripes. Chase says that matters.

 “The ball is different because it is bigger,” Chase said, via Bengals.com. “It doesn’t have the white stripes on the side so you can’t see the ball coming from the tip point so you actually have to look for the strings on the ball at the top, which is hard to see because whole ball is brown and you have the six strings that are white. But for the most part, just have to get used to it and find out what I am comfortable with catching.”

Of course, every single rookie has to make the exact same adjustment, and we haven’t heard any other rookies blame the footballs for dropped passes. Chase also said sitting out the 2020 season has him rusty, but he acknowledges that it’s on him to make the necessary adjustments.

“I don’t want to blame it on me sitting on my butt the whole year, but it probably had something to do with it, of course,” Chase said. “There’s a bigger ball adjustment, so I don’t want to make excuses but I’ve just got to be a pro and make the catch.”

If Chase plays as well as the Bengals expect him to, his preseason drops will soon be forgotten. But if the drops continue into the regular season, no one is going to accept the slight difference in the footballs as an excuse.

CLEVELAND

Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com sees QB BAKER MAYFIELD content to wait for a postseason pay day:

Josh Allen became the first quarterback in the 2018 draft class to receive a long-term extension. Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield remain wanting.

Mayfield’s representation and the Browns still have had no substantive talks, Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports. Cabot adds that both sides are “cool” with waiting.

It gives the Browns more time to see Mayfield’s development, though they risk paying the quarterback a lot more than they would have with a deal now. That’s what happened to the Cowboys with Dak Prescott, and executive vice president Stephen Jones called not getting a deal done sooner the team’s biggest front office mistake.

Mayfield, like Prescott, should have confidence in what he can do and, by betting on himself, could come out ahead.

“If all goes as planned and the offense is as explosive as expected, Mayfield will negotiate from a position of greater strength — likely during the season — and increase his chances of topping $40 million a year, which is the going rate for top QB extensions these days,” Cabot writes.

Mayfield is under contract in 2022 for his option tender of $18.858 million.

The former No. 1 overall choice doesn’t have a Pro Bowl yet, like Allen and Jackson have. Allen led his team to the AFC Championship Game last season, and Jackson has an NFL MVP award. But Mayfield will receive a contract like Allen, whose deal averages $43 million annually, and Jackson and has big plans for this season and for his career.

– – –

EDGE JADEVEON CLOWNEY is ill, but it appears not to be COVID.  Dan Labbe of the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

The Browns were without defensive end Jadeveon Clowney when they took the field for practice on Wednesday. Clowney will be listed on the team’s injury report with an illness.

Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski said Clowney tested negative for COVID-19 and said he hoped Clowney would be back on Thursday.

The Browns signed Clowney to a one-year deal this offseason that could be worth up to $10 million, pairing him with Myles Garrett in hopes of bolstering their pass rush as they face a number of dynamic, mobile quarterbacks, starting with Patrick Mahomes this week.

Guard Michael Dunn also missed practice as he has been dealing with a back injury. Dunn spent the portion of practice open to the media working on the side with trainers.

PITTSBURGH

As the standoff continues, QB BEN ROETHLISBERGER urges the Steelers to cave to the demands of EDGE T.J. WATT.  Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com:

Ben Roethlisberger sent a clear message to the Pittsburgh Steelers’ brass Wednesday morning: Pay T.J. Watt, and pay him now.

“I think T.J. should get whatever the heck he wants,” the quarterback said. “He’s arguably the best football player in the game right now, not just on defense, just in general.

“One of the reasons I took less money was for guys like him to get paid, and he needs to get paid. He deserves every penny that he wants and asks for. T.J. Watt is that guy that should get whatever he wants.”

Roethlisberger, 39, willingly reduced his salary by $5 million when he signed a new contract in March that freed up about $15 million in cap space for the 2021 season.

Watt, who led the league with 15 sacks in 2020 to give him 49.5 sacks over his first four years, was the runner-up for NFL Defensive Player of the Year in each of the past two seasons. After attending every training camp practice but participating only in individual drills, Watt practiced with the team in full Wednesday for the first time this season.

Roethlisberger has been through four contract extensions and three restructures since he was drafted in 2004. The Steelers have traditionally guaranteed only signing bonuses in new deals, essentially guaranteeing only the first year. After that, though, the organization typically restructures deals to give players more guaranteed money and security that way, rather than incurring the costs up front.

Watt, who is in line to become the NFL’s highest-paid defensive player, is likely seeking to buck the trend with more up-front guarantees.

“The problem is, when you negotiate a new contract, it’s two-sided,” Roethlisberger said. “When the bosses and higher-ups are in charge, there’s only so much you can do.

“So we all feel bad for T.J. Everyone knows how bad he wants to be out there. He was here every single day and he didn’t need to be, working, busting his butt. He should get taken care of.”

With rain falling, Watt came out with the defense Wednesday as soon as the Steelers broke into the team period — something he hasn’t done since reporting to camp more than a month ago. He fist-bumped some of his defensive teammates and did other ritual greetings with others.

As coach Mike Tomlin predicted Tuesday, Watt was finally back.

“I mean, that’s classic T.J. He plays the game with a lot of energy, a lot of passion if he’s out on the field,” Tomlin said. “He’s going to be doing that for as long as he plays.”

Tomlin said he’s proceeding under the assumption that the lack of practice time won’t affect Watt’s availability for Sunday’s season opener in Buffalo.

“I thought he looked good. He was engaged,” Tomlin said. “He’s been a full participant in walk-throughs and things of that nature. He’s a smart guy. He can learn from watching others and it’s evident in watching him work today.”

INDIANAPOLIS

If you are so inclined, it looks like you can play QB CARSON WENTZ in your Fantasy League this week.  A tweet from Ian Rapoport:

@RapSheet

#Colts QB Carson Wentz will be a full participant today in practice, coach Frank Reich told reporters. He’ll be on the field in Week 1. An impressive recovery.

BUFFALO

WR STEFON DIGGS admits he wasn’t very classy in his final days in Buffalo. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs is heading into his second year in Buffalo after five years in Minnesota, and in talking about his journey this week, he admitted that things turned bad at the end of his tenure with the Vikings.

Diggs acknowledged that it was fair to call him a bad teammate late in his time in Minnesota, before the Vikings traded him to the Bills in March of 2020.

 “Coming from my old team — I hate talking about old stuff — but up to me wanting to leave and go to another place, I was a good teammate,” Diggs said. “It wasn’t until I wanted to do something else is when I became a bad teammate. So as far as when things are going good, it’s all good until it’s not good. So for me, even then, I always tried to play with a chip on my shoulder and lead my team the best way I know how. Coming here I had a fresh start. It was fair for people to make their assumptions or their assessments from the outside looking in. That’s fair. I just look at it as, when I get there I’ll show them who I am and we’ll go from there. As far as my new chapter with my new team, things are going pretty good.”

Diggs seems happier in Buffalo in part because Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense can utilize his talents better than Kirk Cousins and the Vikings’ offense could. Diggs had career highs in catches (127) and yards (1,535) last season, leading the league in both categories. If he can keep that up, everyone in Buffalo will consider Diggs a very good teammate.

NEW ENGLAND

Bill Belichick is still singing the praises of QB CAM NEWTON as Newton prepares to “get things off his chest.”  Matt Vautour of MassLive.com:

Since being cut by the New England Patriots last week, Cam Newton hasn’t signed anywhere, but he says he’s not done playing and after a week of silence, he’ll be talking soon.

In an Instagram post, promoting his YouTube show “Funky Fridays” he said:

“On this week’s ‘Funky Friday, I have a lot of things to get off my chest. This is not a retirement speech. I have a lot of football still in me.”

Other than missing one game with COVID-19, Newton was the Patriots’ starter all of the 2020 season and started each of New England’s three preseason games. He was an unexpected cut last week when the Patriots named Mac Jones a starter and chose not to keep Newton as a backup when teams brought their rosters down to 53 players Wednesday leaving the former NFL MVP unemployed.

Newton was forced to be away from the team for five days and missed three days of practice late in training camp because of a misunderstanding regarding NFL’s COVID-19 testing policies for unvaccinated players. Newton’s forced five-day hiatus caused speculation over whether his vaccination status contributed to him being cut. Bill Belichick has publicly denied that it played a role on three separate occasions.

Whether Newton’s reasons for not being vaccinated are among the things he “has to get off his chest” on “Funky Friday” remains to be seen.

Newton and Belichick raved about each other during Newton’s stint in New England. Belichick praised him again Tuesday on WEEI.

“I have nothing but positive thoughts and feelings for Cam. He came in here, he worked hard. He gave us everything we had,” Belichick said, via WEEI. “Right now, our future is going to be Mac (Jones) at quarterback, and that is where we’re going to go.”

THIS AND THAT

PREDICTIONS FROM ADAM SCHEIN

Adam Schein of NFL.com drops some predictions:

It’s Week 1! Finally!!!

After another fascinating offseason of ruminations, relocations and rookie hype, it’s go time. Well, almost go time. But before Thursday night’s season-opening game between the Super Bowl champion Buccaneers and the Cowboys, it’s time for some last-minute predictions.

I performed the same exercise one year ago at this time, and I feel like I acquitted myself pretty well:

The Patriots will post their first losing record since 2000 — CHECK!

Jonathan Taylor will be the best rookie running back — CHECK!

The Browns and Buccaneers will end the NFL’s two longest postseason droughts — CHECK-PLUS!

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But I still had some misses. Always room to get better — and bolder!

So, without further ado, here are my last-minute predictions for the 2021 NFL season, Schein Nine style:

1) Josh Allen wins MVP and Super Bowl LVI

This cat has it. Year 3 was great, but Year 4’s going to be special. In Buffalo, it will become known as The Season, with Allen accomplishing two things the great Jim Kelly never managed to do: take home MVP honors and win a Super Bowl.

Allen has taken tremendous strides over his first three NFL seasons, truly breaking through last year, when he finished second in MVP voting. It’s so clear that the guy is singularly focused on getting better every day at practice. And his leadership poured through when we spoke last month on my SiriusXM Radio show, “Schein On Sports.” Bills GM Brandon Beane rightly gave his QB a $258 million extension early in camp, because there is no longer any doubt or debate: Allen’s the real deal. The arm and the athleticism were always there, but how about last year’s accuracy, when he completed 69.2 percent(!) of his passes? He’s a quarterbacking mix of Nolan Ryan, Shohei Ohtani and Greg Maddux. Anyone who still questions Allen is just being stubborn.

Beane has also provided his signal-caller with a beautifully talented and diverse set of receivers. Allen’s rapport with Stefon Diggs is remarkable. And the fact that offensive guru Brian Daboll is still running Buffalo’s offense — instead of serving as another team’s head coach — is unreal and huge for Allen. The Bills’ defense surprisingly took a step back last season, but I fully expect Sean McDermott to get that unit back on track in 2021, especially with some fresh pass-rushing juice in rookies Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham. Not to mention, it sounds like DE A.J. Epenesa is poised for a Year 2 breakout.

This is going to be a season they remember in Buffalo for a long, long time.

2) Aaron Rodgers nabs OPOY and NFC No. 1 seed

Despite all of the offseason drama, it seems to me that Rodgers is in a great place mentally entering the 2021 campaign. At least that’s the sense I got when I spoke to him on SiriusXM a few weeks back. With this potentially being Rodgers’ last dance in Green Bay, there’s a vibe of stopping and smelling the roses. Have you seen the man’s Instagram account lately? It’s flooded with big smiles and fun with teammates. I expect this joy to translate into gleeful domination.

After three straight seasons with fewer than 30 touchdown passes, Rodgers was back with a vengeance in 2020, putting up an absurd 48-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio en route to his third MVP trophy. In my mind, it was the best season of his legendary career. And it won’t surprise me if this year is even better. Rodgers’ receiving corps is improved, with bestie Randall Cobb back in the fold. The run game is strong, with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon forming an imposing 1-2 punch. The defense is solid. The division is weak — 6-0 against North foes is the official prediction here. Rodgers will guide the Packers to a minimum of 13 wins.

3) Derrick Henry hits 2K (again), carrying Titans to AFC South crown (again)

While I make my living debating in the court of public opinion, I am not quite sure how anyone could argue Henry isn’t the top running back in the NFL today. There’s a fight for second-best. Henry is a brilliant, freight train, bully of a back who has led the NFL in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in each of the past two seasons. Last year, he earned Offensive Player of the Year honors with 2,027 yards and 17 scores. How does 2,100 and 20 sound for 2021? Hyperbole? Or spot on? No one in NFL history boasts two 2,000-yard seasons, much less in back-to-back years. But no one in NFL history has played a 17-game regular season — until now! Henry is in prime position to run wild once again, especially now that Julio Jones has joined A.J. Brown out wide.

And while Tennessee still has some question marks on defense, the Titans have the luxury of playing in the NFL’s worst division in 2021. So, yes, I’m riding with “King Henry” in the AFC South.

4) Washington Football Team = Most disappointing football team

Look, I love Ron Rivera’s defense. The Chase Young-led front is nightmare fuel to quarterbacks across the league. And don’t sleep on the stout secondary.

But I think the Washington Football Team has serious problems in an area that kind of matters: the quarterback room. Ryan Fitzpatrick is on his ninth NFL team. There’s a reason why the quarterback bounces around so often. Sure, it’s more fun to talk about Fitzmagic, to note his Harvard pedigree and to thoroughly enjoy his amazing, chest-hair-infused press conferences. Honestly, Fitz is an extremely likable player. But everyone seems to conveniently forget about the Fitztragic part, when he starts throwing picks like they’re going out of style. What happens when that guy rears his ugly head? Where does Washington go then? Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen hardly inspire confidence to me.

Everybody’s all keyed up about Washington heading into the 2021 season. To me, this group has 8-9 written all over it. And this year, a losing record’s not gonna get you a playoff berth, Football Team.

5) End of an error for Giants

From one NFC East turnover concern to another. Daniel Jones’ knack for giving the ball to the other team is soul-crushing. Thirty-nine turnovers in two seasons? That’s atrocious. So is the play of New York’s offensive line, which sits dead last in Pro Football Focus’ preseason OL rankings. In back-to-back years, Giants GM Dave Gettleman spent top-10 picks on a quarterback (Jones) and a quarterback protector (Andrew Thomas). At this point, does either look NFL-caliber?

I like Giants head coach Joe Judge. A lot. But there are just too many negatives across this roster, chiefly at the game’s most important position. This feels like the end of the Daniel Jones error.

6) All five first-round quarterbacks dazzle, with Mac Jones nabbing OROY

Normally there’s a dud in the group. Nope. Not in this quintet. I can’t wait to watch all of these youngsters in the regular season. It won’t just be solid — it’ll be borderline spectacular.

Trevor Lawrence is going to keep the Jaguars in games they have no business being in. This is one of the most skilled quarterbacks to enter the NFL in recent memory, which is why he was a no-brainer No. 1 overall pick. Meanwhile, No. 2 pick Zach Wilson has a high football IQ and gobs of wow talent. He’ll have his ups and downs on a Jets team that’s still forming its new identity under Robert Saleh, but the rookie will learn and improve over the course of the season. While I would start Trey Lance Day 1, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan can do whatever he wants because he’s that great of an offensive guru. Lance oozes talent and is blessed to have such a loaded team and savvy coaching staff around him. Meanwhile, it’s sinful that Matt Nagy is starting Andy Dalton over Justin Fields. But whenever Nagy comes to his senses and makes No. 1 the QB1, Fields will electrify Bears fans with his arm, athleticism and leadership. Lastly, Mac Jones must feel like he’s in football heaven. I immediately loved the pick when New England made it, and figured he’d beat out Cam Newton in a fair competition. Jones did just that — and now he’ll take advantage of having the best coach in NFL history guiding him with a restocked cupboard. Jones will win Offensive Rookie of the Year and lead the Patriots back to the playoffs.

7) Javonte Williams is top rookie back (no offense, Najee!)

Denver is going to be a tough out every week. I really like the talent on the Broncos’ roster, with their elite defensive backs, stud pass rushers and electric, young pass catchers. OK, so Teddy Bridgewater won the quarterback job mainly because he isn’t Drew Lock. It was the right call, the only call. But inherently, Denver will need to run the football in order to win. Sure, veteran Melvin Gordon is there and still solid, but Williams is going to be the straw that stirs the drink in this backfield. A steal of a draft pick in Round 2, Williams is a fantastic blend of everything you want in a back. The guy was a tackle-breaking machine at North Carolina. Not to mention, he ranked as PFF’s No. 1 inside zone/power runner in college football last fall, so Denver’s offense will fit him like a glove.

I still love Najee Harris, but Williams is set up for a stellar rookie season. Bridgewater recently compared Williams to his old Saints teammate, Alvin Kamara. Good enough for me.

8) Derek Carr enjoys best season yet

I recently had Carr on The Adam Schein Podcast for an in-depth conversation, and the Raiders quarterback was fantastic. I asked him about how he’s viewed in the court of public opinion, where I think he is significantly undervalued. Carr hears it, knows it, but solely cares about winning football games. The Raiders haven’t done enough of that lately, but don’t blame the quarterback. He’s been fantastic over the past two seasons, compiling a 48:17 TD-to-INT ratio and a 101.1 passer rating. There have been issues around Carr — like defense and coaching last season — but Las Vegas is just fine under center.

In our conversation, Carr expressed how much he digs this group of receivers, the addition of RB Kenyan Drake and obviously the genius of Darren Waller. This is going to be the most dominant year of Carr’s NFL tenure. I say he hits career-highs with 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns.

9) Texans become first 0-17 team

Last year in this space, I predicted the Jaguars would go 0-16. They proceeded to immediately prove me wrong in Week 1 with a stunning win over the Colts … and then lost their last 15 games. So I felt somewhat validated.

Obviously, the Deshaun Watson situation casts a pall over everything in Houston. Pretty hard to believe this franchise had a 24-0 lead over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in a playoff game just 20 months ago. What a disaster ever since. At the moment, the Texans look dreadful, rudderless and talent-deprived. That’s a gnarly stew. The David Culley hire was head-scratching to me, but given the state of the franchise this offseason, it’s safe to assume the pickings were pretty slim. If Culley can make something out of this team, though, he deserves serious Coach of the Year consideration. I mean, look at the roster. Where are the playmakers on offense? Sure, Brandin Cooks is a nice piece, but I don’t exactly envision him winning games as a one-man wrecking crew. On defense, the Texans have … Zach Cunningham? Yeah, he’ll rack up plenty of tackles on this lackluster unit. Shoot, Houston just traded away its best cover man in Bradley Roby.

I think the Jaguars sweep the Texans. So with that as a backdrop, find a win. I dare you.

COACHING HOT SEATS

Patrik Walker of CBSSports.com has 10 coaches who he thinks are coaching for their jobs.  His top choice hasn’t coached a game for his team yet:

Chilled … but not ice-cold

10. Kliff Kingsbury

You can argue Kingsbury shouldn’t be on any list of hot seat candidates, and you’d be justified in doing so. After all, he’s proven he can win games as a first-time NFL head coach — something Urban Meyer is trying to achieve in Jacksonville — and the continued development of quarterback Kyler Murray is another feather in his cap. That said, it feels more and more like the success of the Cardinals offense boils down to Murray making eye-popping plays after the initial call breaks down, be it due to lack of protection up front or simply a not-great play call.

Additionally, it can’t be ignored that Kingsbury doesn’t have a winning season in three tries, with his best being an 8-8 finish to the 2020 season that saw the Cardinals miss the playoffs — losses to teams like the Detroit Lions, Carolina Panthers, Washington Football Team and the injury-ravaged San Francisco 49ers helping to torpedo their postseason hopes. If the Cardinals don’t take the division in 2021 or, at a minimum, make it to the playoffs, you’ll look back and understand why Kingsbury is on this list, even if just barely at the moment.

9. Brian Flores

You have to love Flores if you’re in the Dolphins’ locker room and front office, and they do, because he went came to Miami and got things turned around (or so it seems). It was a rough 5-11 start to his coaching career in South Florida, but he bounced back in Year 2 with a 10-6 finish despite unsettled play at the quarterback position. With Ryan Fitzpatrick now gone, it’s the Tua Tagovailoa show, and this is where the rubber begins to truly meet the road for Flores. For if Tagovailoa doesn’t begin showing more consistent positive signs of being a franchise QB, it’s Flores who’ll feel the brunt of the organization’s disappointment. That is unless they actually do stun the NFL and decide to trade with the Houston Texans for Deshaun Watson — having zero guarantees he’ll be allowed to take the field anytime soon.

Kudos to Flores and the Dolphins for working things out with All-Pro cornerback Xavien Howard — something that could only help the outcome of the 2021 season — but it’s what Tagovailoa does or doesn’t do that’ll have the biggest impact on Flores’ future. After all, Tagovailoa was his draft pick, and any regression in the coming season (for the QB and/or team as a whole) will create uncomfortable conversations in the Dolphins’ front office.

8. Mike Zimmer

Even more beloved in his city is Zimmer, and he’s also the longest-tenured coach on this list. But for as great as the latter part of that sentence is, it also comes with a fairly reasonable question: where’s the hardware? Zimmer is a great coach and an even better human being, but he’s been with the Minnesota Vikings for seven seasons going into 2021 — the team has made it as far as the conference championship (2017) — but they’ve since missed the playoffs in two of their last three seasons and finished 2020 with a disappointing record of 7-9. What Zimmer is able to do going forward will be interesting and mostly tied to his defense — once regularly in the top 10 but one that finished fourth-worst in the league in points allowed last season.

For a defensive-minded coach like Zimmer, that simply will not do, nor will the front office deem it acceptable. Nobody is carving his name into an NFL tombstone just yet, and Zimmer can easily moonwalk off of this list this coming season, but to pretend he’s 100% safe in Minnesota isn’t realistic.

Heating up

7. Zac Taylor

You likely won’t hear much about Taylor entering this season on the hot seat, mostly because the team’s ownership has proven it will stick with a coach for years and years before finally waking up to what’s going on. Taylor is hoping to avoid a long run in Cincinnati that’s fueled primarily by being “the familiar evil.” Instead, he wants it driven by winning games, and a lot of them. He better get to work then, because things won’t get any easier in the brutally tough AFC North. Former first-overall pick Joe Burrow is back from a devastating season-ending knee injury suffered in 2020, and the club used their first pick in this year’s draft on Ja’Marr Chase, but the latter is off to a curious start by way of dropped passes in August. Kudos to Taylor and the Bengals for making moves to strengthen their offensive line in free agency, because it’ll go a long way in (maybe) helping Cinci string together some wins.

With Taylor entering Year 3, the turnaround the Bengals expected to happen after parting ways with Marvin Lewis simply hasn’t yet. The club is 6-25-1 in its first two years under Taylor, finishing last in the division on both occasions and relying on a defense that’s been near the bottom in points allowed. It’s a pivotal year for Taylor, or at least it should be — if team ownership is truly paying attention.

6. Mike McCarthy

The Cowboys would have you believe McCarthy’s rear end isn’t heating up, and they’re right, at least at the moment in which this article is being written. Make no mistake about it, though: if the Cowboys flounder again in 2021, McCarthy better show up to work wearing ice packs in his jeans. The truth of the matter is this: owner Jerry Jones and Co. are all forgiving McCarthy for the disappointing 6-10 season because COVID-19 derailed the offseason and injuries to star players, including two-time Pro Bowl quarterback Dak Prescott, ravaged the roster. Well, Prescott is now 100% healthy, as is starting tight end Blake Jarwin and offensive linemen Tyron Smith and Zack Martin (La’el Collins is dealing with stingers but is expected to play in Week 1). Add in another year of development from wideout CeeDee Lamb, and the offense is set to do a ton of damage.

The bigger concern is the defense — one that was franchise-worst in several categories in 2020 thanks to the now-fired defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. But while Dan Quinn looks like he’ll hit the ground running in 2021, the decision to choose Nolan in the first place is a massive black eye to McCarthy’s decision-making, and one that won’t go away just by throwing a bag of peas on it. There are no excuses for McCarthy this coming season, and he’ll see the aforementioned forgiveness vanish if he doesn’t deliver at least a playoff win.

5. Matt Rhule

There’s a theme developing here, and it’s just how important a franchise QB is to the tenure of his head coach. Rhule walked into Charlotte with a lot of excitement surrounding him, but the shine is rapidly wearing off. He’ll enter Year 2 coming off of a 5-11 finish that, at one point, included a five-game losing streak as the Panthers tried to figure out if Teddy Bridgewater was truly the answer at QB1 — only to discover he wasn’t. Without much time to waste in establishing himself as an NFL head coach, Rhule moved on from Bridgewater after only one year, then traded with the New York Jets to land Sam Darnold. The move puts pressure on Darnold to succeed, but more so on Rhule, because if Darnold plays poorly, it’ll be Rhule looked at as someone unable to coach up quarterbacks at the NFL level, and two former-first round picks at that.

The Panthers need to see improvement on both their defensive and offensive fronts. If not, they’ll continue to be pushed aside by Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who swept them last season, in a competitive NFC South that now features tight end Kyle Pitts and former Panthers running back Mike Davis in Atlanta. Ultimately, it’s on Rhule to get everything to come together this season, or he’ll likely get called to the principal’s office in the offseason — especially if the reason for failure puts Carolina back in the market for a QB1 for a third straight year.

4. Joe Judge

Arguably even less safe in the NFC East is Judge, and the organization isn’t afraid to let you know it. Owner John Mara noted this offseason that “everyone is on the hot seat” in New York — from Judge to general manager Dave Gettleman to himself. Including himself was cute and all from a PR standpoint, but we all know owners don’t fire themselves; they fire everyone else. And considering the wild and whacky training camp the Giants had, one that included a rash of swift and unexpected retirements and at least one practice brawl, Judge isn’t exactly off to a magnificent start in his second year as an NFL head coach. Like some others on this list, his fate is also tied to what happens at quarterback, because the Giants passed on taking one atop the 2021 NFL Draft due to their belief in Daniel Jones. If Jones doesn’t start knocking socks off (and if the Giants can’t protect him long enough to allow it), will it be the fault of Gettleman or Judge?

If it falls on Gettleman, you can believe he’ll champion his own cause at the expense of Judge (ask Ben McAdoo), because it’s always business and never personal. Gettleman could argue he had a terrific free agency and gave Judge the pieces, and Mara might see his point. However you slice it, if the Giants don’t make noise in the division (and more), Judge better be ready for a tense conversation with an “impatient” Mara.

3. Matt Nagy

You won’t find many who’ll keep a straight face when calling Nagy a bad coach. It’s because that’s a joke of a statement, all things considered. But it often takes more than love to keep a marriage going, and things are getting a bit thin in the Windy City air. To be fair, however, Nagy did not draft Mitchell Trubisky, nor did he make a trade for Nick Foles. As such, you could argue he’s simply playing the cards dealt to him, but that only goes so far in any potential argument to keep his job. Fact is, Bears fans are and have been restless for some time now, still reeling from the one-point playoff loss to the Eagles and a wildly disappointing effort in last season’s wild card loss to the New Orleans Saints.

While Nagy has led the Bears to two playoff berths in his four-year tenure, both ended unceremoniously and in the first round, so simply making the playoffs in 2021 probably won’t do much to keep him in Chicago. It’s time they rattled off a playoff run of some sort, and if Nagy chooses to stick to Andy Dalton any longer than necessary (spoiler: It’s not necessary at all) and stands firm on not unleashing Justin Fields just yet, it might end up being the nail in his coffin.

Scalding hot

2. Vic Fangio

Much like the Giants, albeit to a much greater degree, the Broncos are unsettled at QB but passed on drafting one in the first round — instead selecting cornerback Patrick Surtain II. It’s unclear how much input Fangio had in that decision, but with the team having now traded for and named Teddy Bridgewater their starter, it means Drew Lock isn’t the answer and the Broncos are hoping Bridgewater is. The problem is Bridgewater isn’t the future of the franchise, but hey, Fangio just needs him to be one in 2021, so the brass can see he deserves to stick around. With Von Miller now back from a season-ending injury, and with the addition of Surtain and striking a long-term deal with safety Justin Simmons, there are no excuses for the defense not to be one of the best in the NFL.

If they aren’t, and combined with potentially questionable QB play — which then harkens back to their decision to take a CB (Surtain is phenomenal, but … Justin Fields) — all of the blame will fall right into Fangio’s lap. Additionally, if the Broncos do sell the team, you’re looking at new ownership with zero loyalty to an incumbent head coach who’s 12-20 in his first two seasons and potentially even a new GM, who won’t want to tie his career to a capsizing boat.

1. David Culley

If you’re Culley, you’re excited about finally be given the opportunity to lead an NFL team as its head coach. Contrarily, he also knows what he walked into, and that’s a pressure-packed situation led by sexual abuse allegations against Deshaun Watson, which has Watson presumably not seeing the field for the Texans until further notice. And considering Watson wants to be traded anyway — thanks to beef with the front office for hiring Nick Caserio and then Culley after Watson beat the drum for Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy — it’s on Culley to now turn Tyrod Taylor into a definitive QB1 and to improve the defense without future first-ballot Hall of Fame pass rusher J.J. Watt. It really is a crapshow in South Texas, and it would be two handfuls for a seasoned head coach, making it exponentially more difficult for a first-timer to step in, mop up and win a lot of games in short order.

In several months from now, there will be a new round of coaching candidates for NFL teams to consider, and Bieniemy will again be one of them. If Culley disappoints (and by disappoint, I mean if he can’t pick up a derailing freight train and put it back on the tracks), you better believe Caserio isn’t going to allow fingers to be pointed at the front office.

It’s an unstable organization on the whole, so ditching a first-time coach in 2022 who maybe shouldn’t have gotten the job over the other available candidates just feels right up the Texans’ alley.