The Daily Briefing Tuesdasy, August 19, 2025

AROUND THE NFL

After two preseason weeks, the DB counts 10 teams that have kept their starting QBs in bubble wrap (that included the Rams who have not had QB MATTHEW STAFFORD available due to his back injuries, but probably wouldn’t have played if healthy). The QBs, besides Stafford, who have not completed a pass in preseason (and presumably not played) are: AARON RODGERS, SteelersJOSH ALLEN, BillsLAMAR JACKSON, RavensDAK PRESCOTT, CowboysJALEN HURTS, EaglesJAYDEN DANIELS, CommandersBAKER MAYFIELD, BuccaneersJARED GOFF, LionsMICHAEL PENIX, Falcons PATRICK MAHOMES started the first preseason game, the Chiefs took over at the Arizona 13 after a fumble, and Mahomes played 3 snaps with a 1-yard TD on his only official pass (another had pass interference called). We are the most surprised by Penix being on that list after just 3 NFL games and 105 passes in his career.  And backup KIRK COUSINS has yet to play a snap either. Sean McVay has done the same thing with the Rams.  He hasn’t played Stafford’s primary backup JIMMY GAROPPOLO either. There are three teams that have QB battles going on, although JOE FLACCO (named the starter Monday) hasn’t played either. Of those who have played, five presumed starters have done enough to throw for 100+ yards. RUSSELL WILSON, GiantsJOE BURROW, BengalsTREVOR LAWRENCE, JaguarsCALEB WILLIAMS, BearsCAM WARD, Titans KYLER MURRAY is just shy at 96 pass yards. Not that we would tell anyone how to run their railroad, but we also note that Kevin O’Connell of the Vikings had QB J.J. McCARTHY (effectively a rookie starter) play the first drive of the first game.  There were 12 offensive plays on a FG drive, 7 passes by McCarthy (completing 4 for 30 yards) – and he hasn’t been seen since.

NFC EAST

WASHINGTONThe Commanders played the Bengals without RB BRIAN ROBINSON Jr. who is said to be on the trade block.  John Keim of ESPN.com fills us in on how they did: The run game will survive without Brian Robinson Jr. It’s not as if Robinson has been an NFL standout, but he has been Washington’s starting back the past three seasons. His Commanders’ future is in serious doubt in part because of the depth and versatility displayed in the first two series’ Monday night. Early in the game, Washington’s first run game looked excellent, hurting the Bengals in a variety of ways. Deebo Samuel gained 19 yards on a jet sweep; Chris Rodriguez Jr. squeezed through the middle for a 40-yard run; Jayden Daniels scored on a 14-yard run and Jacory Croskey-Merritt dashed for a 27-yard score. The line was excellent — rookie right tackle Josh Conerly Jr. and tight end John Bates, among others, threw key blocks. The pass game will remain a question mark until they get Terry McLaurin back on the field, but the run game was sharp. It’s a start. — John Keim We are told that JACORY CROSKEY-MERRITT is a name we need to know, except Jacory Croskey-Merritt is not the name he prefers.  Jordan Dajani of CBSSports.com: The Washington Commanders have an intriguing young running back by the name of Jacory Croskey-Merritt, but he would rather go by “Bill Croskey-Merritt.” Why? It’s a nickname he picked up in his youth for having a short haircut, which reminded people of “Little Bill,” the star of the animated television series created by Bill Cosby. ESPN’s Adam Schefter said that when Croskey-Merritt is mentioned on television broadcasts, he wants to be called “Bill.”  “I got the nickname Bill from having a bald head when I was little,” Croskey-Merritt explained last year during his time at Arizona. “I used to have a low haircut, so people joked on me and said I looked like the character Little Bill. So it just stuck with me.” The seventh-round pick out of Arizona via New Mexico and Alabama State played in just one game this past season due to eligibility issues, but rushed 13 times for 106 yards and one touchdown in that one outing for the Wildcats. In 2023 for New Mexico, Croskey-Merritt rushed for 1,190 yards and a whopping 17 touchdowns in 12 games played.  Croskey-Merritt is a name that has received plenty of attention in the last week in fantasy football circles. In fact, some hypothesize that his emergence behind the scenes has led to Brian Robinson Jr. being expendable.  The Commanders still have Austin Ekeler, Jeremy McNichols, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Kazmeir Allen and Demetric Felton in their running back room, but Croskey-Merritt is someone to watch. We should clear up that Bill’s eligibility issues at Arizona had nothing to do with academics or bad behavior.  This from On3.com: The eligibility concerns stem from his freshman year at Alabama State and if he redshirted. The school said he only played in four games before switching numbers with another back. ESPN stats show he played in eight games.

NFC WEST

LOS ANGELES RAMSQB MATTHEW STAFFORD is practicing!  Saad Yousuf of The Athletic: Matthew Stafford’s long-awaited return to practice for the Los Angeles Rams finally came to fruition, as the team shared a video on X showing the 17-year veteran quarterback taking the field Monday morning. Stafford walked out with his customary red No. 9 jersey over his shoulder pads. “It was good to be able to have Matthew out there,” Rams coach Sean McVay said. “He did a good job today. I thought he looked good, but I don’t really have any updates … we’re going to keep it a day, and really, a week at a time, but it’s great to be able to see him out there today and we’ll see how this afternoon goes, and tomorrow.” McVay was asked directly about his confidence that Stafford would be ready to go in Week 1, which is just under three weeks away. McVay didn’t commit to that, reiterating that Stafford did a “good job today.” As he’s done before, McVay called it a “fluid situation” that demands flexibility. McVay had previously said Stafford’s ramp-up period upon returning to practice would begin with individual drills. However, Stafford was able to do more than that on Monday, taking part in individual drills and taking reps during the team’s 11-on-11 sessions. Stafford was expected to make his return to practice one week ago, but the Rams chose to take a cautious approach with their 37-year-old quarterback, who has been dealing with an aggravated disk that caused back soreness for the last several weeks. He worked out on Aug. 9 before the Rams’ first preseason game. Although the workout went well, Stafford didn’t “feel great” a couple of days later, which ended up holding him out of practice the rest of the week. The Rams host the Houston Texans in their season opener on Sept. 7.

AFC NORTH

CINCINNATIAs far as it goes with EDGE TREY HENDRICKSON and the Bengals, it’s all about the guarantees per Adam Schefter as interpreted by Mike Florio: There’s good news and bad news as it relates to the Bengals’ lingering contract impasse with defensive end Trey Hendrickson. ESPN’s Adam Schefter said during the Monday night Cincinnati-Washington pregame show that the Bengals and Hendrickson have an agreement as to the duration of the deal and the annual average. However, when it comes to guaranteed money, the two sides are “nowhere close.” And that’s a huge factor. Guarantees are all that matters. NFL contracts are one-way deals, with the teams able to insist on compliance by the player while also free to tear up the deal at any time. The Bengals went through this last year with receiver Ja’Marr Chase. The APY would have made him the highest-paid receiver. The structure, however, was horrible, we were told at the time. For a player on the wrong side of 30, there’s a temptation to retain year-to-year flexibility. Hendrickson surely wants at least two years of full guarantees at signing. Or maybe more. The report is that the two sides are “nowhere close.” Meanwhile, Week 1 is coming. If Hendrickson is going to be ready to go, he needs to start practicing soon. Which means that the Bengals either need to find a way to bridge the gap, or they need to do more than listen to the trade offers they’re reportedly receiving. Yesterday, we had a list of three teams rumored to be interested in Hendrickson – the Texans, Panthers and Colts.  Nick Shook of NFL.com has broader canvas of potential destinations (and Indianapolis and Houston don’t appear): With this in mind, a trade might only make sense for a current title contender looking to beef up at edge rusher. Hendrickson’s 35 sacks tallied over the last two seasons justify an expensive trade for immediate return. But who might feel the need to swing a deal with only two weeks left before the start of the season? Here are seven potential trade destinations for the league’s reigning sack king: Detroit LionsWhen I wrote about this matter in March, Detroit immediately came to mind as a great destination for Hendrickson. He’d have the chance to line up opposite Aidan Hutchinson and hunt quarterbacks for a team that will be a favorite to win the NFC. Five months later, I like the idea even more. Defensive tackle Alim McNeill is still on the road back from an ACL injury, Levi Onwuzurike is done for the season due to his own ACL tear, and while those are both interior players, beefing up anywhere along the front four would behoove Detroit in its first season under new defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard. Las Vegas RaidersWith Pete Carroll in charge and Geno Smith running the show at quarterback, Las Vegas has quickly shifted toward immediate relevance. I’m very excited to watch its offense operate in 2025, but I’m just as concerned about the defense after the unit lost multiple contributors in the offseason and appears worse entering the new campaign, especially in the secondary. Yes, I know the Raiders have already allocated a total of $48.1 million to their top two edge rushers (Maxx Crosby and Malcolm Koonce) but they still have $34 million in effective cap space for 2025, so why not explore a dream pairing of Crosby and Hendrickson? Combining the two edge-rushing forces would theoretically reduce the responsibility carried by their secondary and strengthen the unit overall, which could bring much-needed balance — and thus, competitiveness — to the entire team. So I ask you this, Raiders GM John Spytek: Koonce and a first-rounder for Hendrickson? Why not? Philadelphia EaglesGeneral manager Howie Roseman already swung a deal (for receiver John Metchie) in the last 48 hours and clearly isn’t afraid of working out a trade he believes might benefit his team. The Eagles also lost some beef in the offseason, watching Milton Williams and Josh Sweat leave for lucrative deals elsewhere. The Bryce Huff experiment didn’t work last season and 2025 is setting up as a season-long test of some of their younger rushers. It might not be the worst idea to add some proven insurance — and reliable production — in Hendrickson to a defense that was essential to Philly’s run to a Super Bowl triumph last season. Buffalo BillsHave you watched Hard Knocks yet? Have you felt the pressure that is weighing on Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott to finally get over the Kansas City-sized hump and reach the Super Bowl? Buffalo is undoubtedly feeling it, and while the flier it took on Joey Bosa suggests it’s attacking this season as aggressively as possible, swinging a deal for Hendrickson would turn that dial to 11. Buffalo also doesn’t have cap space to work with but we know two truths: First, Beane could structure an extension for Hendrickson to make it fit, and secondly, the cap is somewhat of a myth. For a team that is clearly all in on 2025, a deal for Hendrickson makes plenty of sense. Send Bosa — not a young player, but a player who would soften the blow of losing Hendrickson — and a first-rounder to Cincinnati for Hendrickson and push the throttle to its limit in 2025. New England PatriotsThe Patriots spent a ton of money in 2025 and seem to be fairly confident in what they’ve assembled at edge rusher entering their first season under HC Mike Vrabel. Still, I can’t help but feel as if Hendrickson is exactly the type of player Vrabel would want on his defense. New England has plenty of remaining cap space to fill with an extension for Hendrickson and would undoubtedly benefit from his addition. Plus, it seems as if the Patriots are very eager to move on from safety Kyle Dugger, a player they could easily toss into a trade that also includes a first- or second-round pick, selections New England exec Eliot Wolf told reporters on Monday the Patriots wouldn’t mind parting with for the right addition. Atlanta FalconsOn its face, this pairing seems absurd. Atlanta just spent two first-round picks on edge rushers in April; why would it give up a young player and an asset for a 30-year-old at the same position? Well, I can provide a simple explanation: production. It’s nice to invest in young players but such picks are more aspirational than dependable, and the current regime doesn’t have quite enough leash to subsist solely on dreams, not after its expensive gamble on Kirk Cousins flopped last year. The Falcons need a proven veteran to chase quarterbacks; it’s why they traded for Matt Judon last season. Cap space is an issue and would require creative accounting to fit an extension for Hendrickson into their books, but when leadership duos start to feel the heat, future spending matters less (right, Bill O’Brien?). And in an NFC South that includes Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young, Atlanta needs a hunter. The capital required to pry Hendrickson from Cincinnati might present another hurdle, given the fact the Falcons traded their 2026 first-rounder to draft James Pearce Jr.. But where there’s a will, there’s a trade. Carolina PanthersCarolina traded away Brian Burns a year ago, lost defensive tackle Derrick Brown to a season-ending injury after one game and paid the price for it, finishing dead last in yards allowed per game, QB pressure percentage (25.5) and 29th in sacks per pass attempt in 2024. Brown returns in 2025, and while I love D.J. Wonnum, Carolina simply needs more punch along its defensive front. I’m not quite sure who the Bengals would want the Panthers to send them, but the first-round pick that would be required sure projects to be valuable, given most don’t expect the Panthers to be a playoff contender in 2025.

CLEVELANDThe Browns announce, as expected, that QB JOE FLACCO will open the season as the starter.  Zac Jackson of The Athletic explains that part of Flacco’s ascension is the curious fact that it was the 40-year-old who was the only one of four QBs who was consistently healthy throughout camp: The Cleveland Browns have named Joe Flacco their starting quarterback. Flacco, 40, won the job almost by default, being the only one of the four quarterbacks vying for the spot not to be at least limited by injury in training camp. However, the Browns signed Flacco in April because of his NFL experience and success with them in 2023. Now he’ll be asked to guide a team in transition through a daunting early-season schedule. Flacco became more comfortable over the last two weeks as he began to take almost all of the reps with the No. 1 offense. Though he didn’t play in either of the first two preseason games, he led the Browns in joint practice sessions with the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles. “I’m not trying to look into (the reps count) too much,” Flacco said this month. “I can say that when you get a little bit more (action), you can start to feel like yourself. You get in the groove and you calm down a little bit. It’s just human nature. Like, when you’re getting two reps, three reps (at a time), you can be like, ‘Oh, this has to be perfect.’ And when you feel that way, you’re not going to be as good. “So, to be able to relax a little bit, let it loose and get a little bit more, it just feels right, you know what I mean? So I’m not going to look (too far) into what it means, but it definitely feels good to be out there.” Kenny Pickett hasn’t been a full practice participant since July 26 because of a hamstring injury. The Browns probably always preferred going with Flacco or Pickett early this season over their two rookie quarterbacks, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. With Pickett and Sanders (oblique strain) trying to return from injury, the rest of the depth chart remains unsettled. But Flacco will be pegged as the starter, and he’ll play in Saturday’s preseason finale against the Los Angeles Rams. Then, the Browns will turn their full focus toward the regular season and their Sept. 7 opener versus the Cincinnati Bengals. In 2023, Flacco went from being at home waiting for a call to the Browns’ practice squad in November. He then led Cleveland to four straight victories to clinch a playoff berth. During that stretch, he became the first quarterback in franchise history to post four consecutive 300-yard passing games. The Browns did not offer Flacco a contract for 2024 because of their commitment to Deshaun Watson. But with Watson now recovering from a second torn Achilles tendon and the team acknowledging that its massive investment in him was a failure, the 2025 Browns are turning the page — but at least temporarily going back to Flacco. Only six quarterbacks over 40 have started double-digit games in a season: Warren Moon, Vinny Testaverde, Brett Favre, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. “Joe is the same guy he was then (in 2023),” Browns coach Kevin Stefanski said last week. “He’s the same guy every single day. I think that’s one of the things you admire about Joe is how he approaches his business. He’s done a really nice job in camp. He’s also done a really nice job just providing leadership to the quarterback room, to the offense and to the football team.” The Browns have another problem contract situation with a player they chose who has legal problems. Mike Florio: Yes, Browns running back Quinshon Judkins could still be suspended, even though he won’t face criminal charges arising from recent allegations of domestic violence. Adam Schefter of ESPN.com reports that the Browns and the 36th overall pick in the 2025 draft have yet to reach an agreement. They possibly won’t until the NFL has concluded its internal investigation. This implies that an investigation will happen, which is normal practice even when criminal charges aren’t pursued. The league uses a lower standard of proof. If the alleged victim cooperates with the NFL’s investigation, the league could decide that Judkins violated the Personal Conduct Policy and impose a suspension. The other complicating factor is that Judkins is in line for a fully-guaranteed contract, given that the players taken before and after him received fully-guaranteed deals. The Browns may want to include separate protections in the four-year contract, in light of the post-draft incident. Judkins’s only leverage at this point is to sit out the season and re-enter the draft. If he doesn’t sign a contract until next year, would any suspension be served based on games missed this year? That’s another natural question arising from this unusual situation.

AFC SOUTH

INDIANAPOLISAnd the winner is – QB DANIEL JONES.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: Colts head coach Shane Steichen has made his choice about the team’s starting quarterback and it isn’t one he plans to revisit on a weekly basis. Daniel Jones will start against the Dolphins at home in Week 1 and Steichen said at a Tuesday press conference that he plans to give Jones a long run with the first team. “He’s our starting quarterback for the season,” Steichen said, via Max Lewis of Fox 59. “I don’t want to have a quick leash on that. I feel confident in his abilities.” Steichen said Jones and Anthony Richardson both competed “really hard,” but that “consistency” was the biggest thing he was looking for and that Jones “did a great job” on that front. He added that Richardson has “made strides” in those areas, but still needs to develop. While Steichen said that Richardson is “one play away,” he will have to do that development off the field unless Jones is injured or fails to meet the head coach’s expectations on the field. That’s not a great spot for a first-round pick to find himself entering his third NFL season, but it’s the one he’ll have to navigate in order to have another chance in the starting lineup.

TENNESSEEQB CAM WARD scuffled with trash-talking DL JUSTIN SIMMONS during a sweltering practice on Monday.  Turron Davenport of ESPN.com: – Tempers flared during a 96-degree day at Tennessee Titans training camp as quarterback Cam Ward and defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons got into a scuffle Monday. Ward threw a touchdown pass to Calvin Ridley toward the end of practice and went to celebrate. The rookie quarterback stopped and gave Simmons a shove before doing his trademark “Zombieland” celebration in front of him. Simmons reacted with a two-hand push to Ward’s facemask, and the offensive line ran to Ward’s defense. “Absolutely not,” left tackle Dan Moore Jr. said of allowing anyone to touch the quarterback. “That goes without saying.” Simmons and Ward were separated, but that was after Simmons’ helmet was pushed off during the scuffle. Ward returned for the next play while Simmons came off the field. Practice was over two plays later. Titans coach Brian Callahan had the team run after practice. “You get that same attitude, confidence, that same edge every day out of those two guys,” cornerback Jarvis Brownlee Jr. said. “That’s what you expect. But when it does happen with the quarterback, you got to break it up as soon as possible. But brothers fight.” Ridley’s touchdown and the ensuing confrontation between Ward and Simmons occurred on the next play after running back Julius Chestnut reached the end zone on a short run. Chestnut bounced outside off a block by right tackle JC Latham that took Simmons out of the play. Latham talked trash to Simmons all the way to the huddle after that score. Simmons has been engaged in an ongoing trash-talking session with the entire offense, but mostly Latham and Ward. Neither Ward nor Simmons spoke to the media after the practice session.

AFC EAST

MIAMIEDGE MATTHEW JUDON, on the street as of yesterday despite 72 career sacks, will be a Dolphin.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: Edge rusher Matthew Judon’s visit with the Dolphins on Monday went well enough for him to stick around a while. According to multiple reports, Judon will sign a one-year deal with the team. The deal is reportedly worth up to $6 million. Judon had 5.5 sacks for the Falcons last season and 72 sacks for his career. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel said on Monday morning that his production was the reason for the visit and not an injury to any of the team’s other edge rushers. “We are visiting for the sake of seeing if there is a situation that both parties would be able to come into an agreement of, ‘Hey, this is a situation that fits,’” McDaniel said, via Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. “Visiting for visiting purposes. We will see what it leads to.” The Dolphins have not announced Judon’s signing at this point. They did announce the signing of offensive lineman Mason Brooks and they placed offensive lineman Yodny Cajuste on injured reserve. Judon, now 33, had some turmoil at the end of his time in New England as he was shipped to Atlanta in August.  Albert Breer had this to say: During Thursday’s episode of Boston Sports Tonight, Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer reported that Judon had been rubbing some people in the Patriots organization the wrong way, and that his temperament behind closed doors made them more inclined to trade him as Judon’s contract dispute continued. “Judon was not as well-liked by the coaches and front office people as you might have thought,” Breer told co-hosts Michael Felger and Michael Holley, as seen in the video player above. “That was really part of it at the end, was that they were just sick of him. “They felt like there was the public-facing Judon, and then there was Judon behind the scenes. The Judon behind the scenes had sort of become a little bit of an operator, and his act had worn thin with people inside the building. And it’s something that was an issue in Baltimore, too, quite honestly.” The Falcons let him walk after an underwhelming 5.5-sack performance last year.

THIS AND THAT

BILL BARNWELL’S 5 TEAMS THAT WILL DECLINEWe’re thinking the Vikings will be on this list.  Maybe the Commanders.  (We will do some editing, hopefully not disrupting the flow): Each year, I also break down the teams that are most likely to decline. This column has had a virtually identical success rate; after last year, it’s 30 for 38. It went 3-2 last year, correctly pegging the Ravens (who dropped from 13-4 to 12-5), Giants (6-11 to 3-14) and Browns (11-6 to 3-14) as teams that would lose more games. The two that defied my predictions will stick in my mind for a while. The Steelers defied the odds again, maintaining their 10-7 record. They’re responsible for two of those eight times in which a team didn’t decline, and the Steelers came within one win of doing it a third time in 2022. Spoiler: They’re not on my list below. The other team did a little more than maintain its record from the previous season. The Eagles did not decline from their 11-6 mark in 2023. They went 14-3, then followed that by blitzing through the NFC playoffs and blowing out the Chiefs in Super Bowl LX. When I ranked the top 25 teams of the past 25 years earlier this offseason, I put the 2024 Eagles at No. 4. After their early-season bye, they were comfortably the league’s best team. So, what did I miss? A massive improvement in their underlying level of play, driven by better players and coaching. This column uses 2024 data and underlying metrics to estimate each team’s true level of performance. Though every team makes offseason changes, history tells us the information from the previous season helps predict what will happen in the year to come. The Eagles’ changes turned out to be more impactful than almost any in recent memory. It’s rare for a team to land a player in free agency who becomes a first-team All-Pro. General manager Howie Roseman signed two — running back Saquon Barkley and linebacker Zack Baun. After cornerback was a major problem in 2023, Roseman used his first two picks in the draft on Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. I wrote last year that rookie cornerbacks often struggle in their debut seasons, which is true, but often doesn’t mean always. Mitchell and DeJean were stars, with the Eagles morphing from one of the league’s worst defenses by EPA per play during their 2-2 start to the league’s best once DeJean entered the lineup in the slot. The Eagles also made strong upgrades at coordinator, as Vic Fangio and Kellen Moore were excellent. Throw in some of the league’s second-healthiest season by adjusted games lost, a 7-2 record in one-score games and the fifth-easiest schedule, and it was a special campaign. Should I have seen that coming? Maybe.  Kansas City ChiefsRecord in 2024: 15-2Point differential in 2024: plus-592024 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 10-0Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: Sixth toughest in NFLTwo years after the Vikings became the first team in league history to go 9-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer, the Chiefs took things a step further. Andy Reid’s team was an unprecedented 10-0 in one-score games last season. And as always, while there are situations in which a late score can make a game look closer than it actually was, the Chiefs really were getting opponents to slip on banana peels and knock themselves out at the most opportune times. Let’s relive just how narrow so many of Kansas City’s victories were: (we will pass on this list) A pair of seven-point victories over the Chargers and Raiders weren’t quite as close. Maybe it’s unfair to include the Panthers game when Carolina never had the ball with a chance to tie the game or take the lead. There’s no guarantee the Buccaneers or Ravens would have converted their two-pointers, or that the Raiders or Broncos would have hit their field goals to win their respective games. Maybe it’s not fair to treat these games as some collective combination of Chiefs magic and spectacular luck. And yet, at the same time, you really have to blindly believe to treat this as proof of a dominant team turning on the gas when it most needed it. Was it Mahomes and the offense coming up with key plays at the exact right time? Some weeks, yes. Against the Ravens, Falcons, Bucs, Panthers and Raiders, though, the Chiefs had a chance to chew up the clock and seal victories with first downs but couldn’t sustain their drives, handing the ball back to the opposing team. Most of those drives were three-and-outs. Was it Steve Spagnuolo’s opportunistic defense closing the door with a well-timed blitz or big play, as Kansas City did against the Bills in the AFC title game? Again, only sometimes. The Chiefs blew late leads on defense against the Bucs and Panthers and came within an inch of doing so against the Ravens. The Falcons drove twice into the red zone and were let down by a missed call in the end zone that would have given them first-and-goal on the 1-yard line. The Broncos converted three third downs to get into field goal range before the Chenal block. Las Vegas quarterback Aidan O’Connell converted five straight passes to get into field goal range before the bungled exchange. That isn’t the résumé of a great defense shutting down teams when the game’s on the line, even if the results ended up looking good for Kansas City. Do the Chiefs have a psychic hold late in games on the rest of the league? Depends on when you look. They went 8-0 in one-score games in 2021 and 10-0 in those same contests last season. In Mahomes’ other seasons as the starter, they went 25-17 in those one-score contests with him on the field, including a 3-4 mark in 2023. That total — 43-17 — is a spectacular record in one-score games, but even treating Mahomes as an outlier relative to the rest of the league (and I’m willing to believe that possibility), 10-0 is impossibly unsustainable. The Chiefs had the point differential of a 10.2-win team, owing in part to a 38-0 loss to the Broncos in Week 18 when Mahomes and virtually every other star took most (or all) of the game off. Remove that game and the Chiefs went 15-1 with a 10.7-win point differential. Every other 14-plus win team since 1989 had a point differential of 100 points or more, with their average point differential coming in at 190 points per 17 games. Kansas City had a point differential of plus-59. The 2024 Chiefs finished the season with the largest gap between their actual record and Pythagorean expected record of any team since 1989, coming in just ahead of the 2022 Vikings. The 30 teams with the largest gap between those two figures over that time span declined by an average of 3.2 wins per 17 games. They went from outperforming their Pythagorean expectation by 3.2 wins to just 0.1 wins per team the following season. In other words, for the vast majority of these teams, they weren’t able to defy what history tells us about point differential for more than one season. Could the Chiefs be the exception? Of course. Mahomes is the best quarterback of his generation. There’s significant talent on both sides of the ball, and the brain trust of Reid and Spagnuolo are back. The Chiefs spent all of last season dealing with a turnstile at left tackle, a problem they believe they’ve solved after signing Jaylon Moore and drafting Josh Simmons in Round 1. They didn’t have wideout Rashee Rice for most of the season after a knee injury in September, and Isiah Pacheco’s fractured fibula neutered the run game. They converted just under 54% of their red zone trips into touchdowns, the worst rate they have posted in a single season during the Mahomes era. As we saw with the Eagles last season, one way to defy what the numbers suggest is to massively improve your underlying level of play. Even if the Chiefs improve on a play-by-play basis, there’s a huge gap between the team they were a year ago and what their record suggested. The left side of their line is a huge question mark between tackle and guard, where Kingsley Suamataia might settle after flaming out at tackle. They lost an underrated veteran in safety Justin Reid, who was one of the league’s best tacklers during his time in Kansas City. Rice is likely to miss time with a potential suspension, and tight end Travis Kelce took a major step backward in his age-35 season. Opposing kickers hit a league-low 81.8% of their kicks against Kansas City in 2024, including misses and blocks at the most inopportune times. Can the Chiefs really count on that again? Of course, all of this isn’t to suggest the Chiefs will be anything short of a Super Bowl contender. They were on this very list before the 2021 season, when they fell from 14-2 to 12-5. That team came within a few yards of making it back to the Super Bowl. Twelve wins and another deep playoff run seem like a reasonable expectation for this team, too. Minnesota VikingsRecord in 2024: 14-3Point differential in 2024: plus-1002024 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 8-1Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: Fourth toughest in NFL After mentioning the 2022 Vikings in the Chiefs’ conversation, perhaps it’s only fitting that Minnesota returns as the next team on this list. The 2022 Vikings were one of the more obvious candidates I’ve ever seen for decline, as they went 13-4 while being outscored by three points. That team finished 28th in DVOA, suggesting they were, on a snap-by-snap basis, one of the league’s worst teams. They were immediately bounced from the playoffs at home by a Giants team that ranked 23rd by the same metric. The 2024 Vikings were different. For one, they were much better. They went 14-3 with the league’s seventh-best DVOA. They played the ninth-toughest schedule. The 2022 Vikings were passengers on defense, with coordinator Ed Donatell fielding one of the most confusingly passive units in recent memory. The 2024 Vikings were the league’s most entertaining and perhaps its most aggressive defense, throwing everything from Cover-0 blitzes to drop-eight coverages from the same pre-snap looks and confounding opposing quarterbacks in the process. The Vikings went 8-1 in one-score games last season. If they had done that after the 2022 season, Kevin O’Connell would be lauded as the game management wizard of his generation. Instead, they went 4-8 in one-score games between those two seasons, and while things might have been different if Kirk Cousins had stayed healthy, four of those losses came in the first five weeks, when Cousins was on the field. O’Connell is still an excellent coach, but he’s probably not going to win 88% of his close games again. Let’s talk about that defense. Can the Vikings keep their level of play up? While acknowledging they have a great front seven and an excellent coordinator, I’d be a little nervous. They led the league in turnovers (33) and were second in turnover rate (16.6% of opposing drives), trailing only the Bills. Defense is more difficult to sustain than offense, and successful defenses built around high turnover margins are even tougher to maintain from year to year. – – –Are there reasons to think the Vikings will simply field better defensive talent? I’m not sure. They were the league’s fifth-healthiest defense a year ago by adjusted games lost, per the new FTN Football Almanac, and they fielded the league’s oldest defense on a snap-weighted age basis. In fact, with the league’s fifth-oldest offense, they were the league’s oldest team on a play-by-play basis. That isn’t inherently disqualifying, but it’s a reality of where they were with their roster construction. The Vikings were able to get very good play from three veteran cornerbacks in Byron Murphy, Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin. Gilmore and Griffin are gone, so they will be younger at the position, but the players replacing the three veterans haven’t been great elsewhere. Isaiah Rodgers was buried on the depth chart in Philadelphia, while Jeff Okudah and Tavierre Thomas have bounced around the league with limited results. Minnesota is better-equipped to handle the departure of starting safety Cam Bynum, who left as part of the various free agent exchanges the Colts and Vikings made this offseason, but it’s fair to say the expectations for the secondary have to be below what Vikings fans saw last season. They’ll try to make up for it on the front end, where they … got older by importing two new defensive tackles on the wrong side of 30. Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave were both stars earlier in their career, but they combined to play just 11 games last season because of injuries. Allen and Hargrave are big swings, and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has generally done excellent work in free agency, so there are reasons to be optimistic the Vikings’ front will be even more devastating than it was in 2024. Adofo-Mensah upgraded the interior of the offensive line, too, bringing in Ryan Kelly and Will Fries from Indianapolis before using his first-round pick on guard Donovan Jackson. The interior line has been a weakness seemingly since the Steve Hutchinson days, so I can’t take any issue with the idea of upgrading those spots. In practice, they should be better than the Ed Ingrams and Garrett Bradburys of the world, but Fries is coming off a broken leg, while Kelly is 32 and hasn’t been the same player he was during his peak seasons. The Vikings also get back left tackle Christian Darrisaw after he suffered a season-ending torn ACL and MCL in midseason last year. The most notable player returning from injury is quarterback J.J. McCarthy. He’ll take over for Sam Darnold, who ranked 14th in Total QBR last season. While Darnold averaged nearly 8.0 yards per attempt in a resurgent performance, he threw 12 interceptions, fumbled eight times and took sacks on more than 8% of his dropbacks. The Vikings were tied for the fourth-most drives in the league, which inflated some of his cumulative stats, both good and bad. One way for the Vikings and McCarthy to overcome any sort of turnover-induced dip on defense would be to simply protect the ball more reliably. They ranked 18th in turnover rate on a drive-by-drive basis, and they scored just two touchdowns across the 45 drives in which Darnold took at least one sack. They seem set to move toward more of a rotation at running back after Aaron Jones fumbled five times last season. If McCarthy protects the football and takes drive-destroying sacks less often, Minnesota could improve by avoiding negative plays more often. The Vikings are a pretty unique team. The age of their roster and the moves they have made suggest they’re trying to win right now, but they have what essentially amounts to a rookie quarterback leading the way. And while we normally associate debuting quarterbacks with subpar teams and young rosters, McCarthy is taking over a 14-win team, something I’m not sure has ever happened in the modern era. I’m not expecting a dropoff below .500 like the one we saw in 2023, but a record more in line with their 11.1-win point differential from 2024 would make sense. Washington CommandersRecord in 2024: 12-5Point differential in 2024: plus-942024 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 8-2Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: Seventh toughest in NFL The Commanders join the Chiefs as teams that succeeded after being on last year’s most likely to improve list but are tabbed most likely to decline this season. Washington made one of the biggest single-season leaps in recent league history, improving from four wins in 2023 to 12 last season. Then, the Commanders beat the Bucs and Lions in the playoffs before running out of steam in the NFC title game against the Eagles. Though I was optimistic about the Commanders last season, I thought they would win around eight games and didn’t expect them to make a deep playoff run. Last season, they fixed their biggest problem from the previous season, creating turnovers. The Commanders jumped from a minus-14 turnover margin in 2023 to plus-one last season, though that mostly occurred by dramatically cutting their turnovers on offense. I hesitated comparing last year’s Commanders with the 2023 Texans, but that turned out to be a great comp in many ways. The Texans accelerated their rebuild by surrounding a talented young quarterback who cut down on the team’s giveaways with a defensive-minded coach and one of the league’s older rosters. In 2024, though they still won the AFC South, they stagnated a bit; the offseason improvements didn’t click, there weren’t many young players (other than Will Anderson Jr. and the secondary) who became impact contributors, and they relied too much on their young quarterback to bail them out. Houston was still good, but it didn’t take the next step many expected. We might see the same productions from the Commanders, who fielded the league’s seventh-oldest team last season on a snap-weighted age basis, despite quarterback Jayden Daniels and cornerback Mike Sainristil being wildly impressive in their debut seasons.  Peters has also made aggressive trades to add veterans, and though there’s understandable logic behind those moves, they came at a cost to the Commanders. The deal for cornerback Marshon Lattimore didn’t deliver much last season. Offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil was brought in from the Texans, and Peters made a move with his former team to acquire wideout Deebo Samuel from the 49ers. Washington had just three top-200 picks in April’s draft as a result, and it will again field one of the league’s oldest teams. That means there aren’t a ton of young players on this roster who might improve in 2025. The Commanders need those players because they might not have the same fortune they had in 2024. They were the league’s fifth-healthiest team by adjusted games lost, ranking among the six healthiest offenses and defenses. That doesn’t include Sam Cosmi, who was Washington’s best lineman for most of 2024 before he suffered a torn ACL in the postseason. It’s unclear whether he’ll be healthy enough to start the season on the active roster. The Commanders went 8-2 in one-score games and enjoyed more incredible moments than some teams have in a decade. That record doesn’t even include the 86-yard touchdown pass Daniels threw to Terry McLaurin with 21 seconds left against the Cowboys in a game the Commanders eventually lost by eight points. (I don’t treat eight-point margins as one-score games because teams can’t win the game on a single drive and to allow for comparisons between now and the pre-2-point conversion era. If you prefer to consider eight points as a one-score game, the Commanders went 8-4 in those contests.) Is Daniels devastating when defenses give him an opportunity to win the game in the fourth quarter or overtime? Absolutely. Was he lucky to get so many opportunities after drops by the other team and missed field goal attempts at inopportune times? Of course. And when teams scored late and made their 2-point conversions to take the lead — as the Bears did with 27 seconds left in Washington — there was even more magic waiting from the rookie sensation. It’s tough to see Daniels getting that many opportunities again, even if he’s up to the task of succeeding when he does. (We omit the long list) There’s one more thing that is incredibly important to the 2024 Commanders and is unlikely to recur: what they did on fourth down. Coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury should be lauded for leaning into the strength of their team and staying aggressive on fourth down, but the results were almost unprecedented. When they needed a fourth-down conversion, Daniels came through more often than anybody could expect. During the regular season, the Commanders went 20-of-23 on fourth downs, good for an 87% conversion clip. That was 14 percentage points better than any other team last season. ESPN has fourth-down data going back to 2000, and no team has gone for it on fourth down more than 10 times in a season and converted more often than Washington did in 2024. The Commanders scored 115 points on drives after converting at least one fourth down, the most by any team over that span. Given how conservative teams were on fourth down before attitudes changed about analytics over the past decade, I would strongly suspect no team has scored more points from its fourth-down approach in NFL history than the 2024 Commanders. Daniels & Co. will give opposing defenses pause on fourth downs, but asking them to convert at historically high rates is too much. That was a special season, and assuming Daniels stays healthy, the Commanders should be in the mix for a playoff berth again. But it will be something closer to a consolidation year than the next step toward greatness in the DMV. Indianapolis ColtsRecord in 2024: 8-9Point differential in 2024: minus-502024 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 7-4Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: 13th easiest in NFL Admit it: If you aren’t a fan of the franchise, did you know the Colts won eight games last season? With conversations about them dominated by the Anthony Richardson discussion, it feels like they were one of the league’s worst teams. In reality, they weren’t great, but they were within one game of a winning record. They had the point differential of a 7.3-win team, which means they outperformed their underlying performance by just under one victory; that’s not usually a team I would target here. And yet, if you look at those eight wins more closely, it’s hard to feel like the Colts were on the same level with, say, the Cardinals or Falcons. The Colts beat the Steelers, but their other six wins came against teams with a combined record of 32-87. Six of their eight wins came over teams that finished with one of the 10 worst records, including a sweep over the Titans and victories over the Patriots and Jaguars. If they had swept the Jags or beaten the Giants late in the season, they could have ridden multiple wins over the league’s worst teams to a winning record. One of the privileges of playing in the AFC South is facing relatively easy opponents annually. By my schedule metric, which considers point differential by opponents in games not involving the Colts, Indy faced the league’s fourth-easiest schedule. That’s up to only 13th this season, per FPI, but if the Jags or Titans take a step forward, the Colts might have to face a league-average slate. It’s not just which teams they played, but when the Colts played them and who was the opposing quarterback. Though they were dealing with their own quarterback situation each week, they avoided the opposing team’s preferred signal-caller more often than just about any other team– – –Four of the Colts’ eight wins came against backup quarterbacks, including their only two victories of the season against competitive teams. There’s no way to ensure they will face something short of their opposing team’s preferred option 35% of the time next season, and they weren’t very good against preferred starting quarterbacks. The Colts might respond that their quarterback play will be better. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to see a path forward with Richardson. After adjusting for era, he had the worst completion percentage for any quarterback with 200 attempts or more in a season in NFL history, topping Akili Smith, Tim Tebow and Ryan Leaf. Richardson’s average pass traveled farther than any other passer last season, which helps explain some of the completion issues, but we don’t see quarterbacks miss as many receivers as he did. Richardson led the league in yards per completion (14.4), which explains why his yards per dropback were 19th, ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix. Richardson threw interceptions on 4.5% of his dropbacks, though, and even when factoring in his impact as a scrambler and on designed runs, Total QBR ranked him 27th in the league. The quarterback just ahead of him in 26th? That was Daniel Jones. Though Jones might offer safer hands and a better interception rate, that comes with a lack of upside. He ranked 34th in yards per dropback last season, topping only Caleb Williams and Deshaun Watson. Jones’ 6.1 yards per attempt ranked 35th. And though Richardson’s athleticism allows him to avoid sacks, Jones has an 8.5% sack rate across six pro seasons. Sacks are better than interceptions, but they’re still drive-killers. The other problem with this duo: Neither has a great track record for health. – – –It feels like the Colts will be cycling between quarterbacks this season because of injuries or subpar play. They’re down two starters on the offensive line after Ryan Kelly and Will Fries signed with the Vikings, with Tanor Bortolini and Matt Goncalves likely earning promotions. The Colts can exceed expectations in two ways. One is getting better-than-expected play at quarterback. It’s possible they get the 2022 version of Jones, or that Richardson takes an enormous leap forward. But are either of those scenarios very likely? (Note: The Colts named Jones the starter on Tuesday morning.) The other is improving their defense, where they led the league in missed tackles by a considerable margin last season. General manager Chris Ballard made some good offseason moves to address a long-suffering secondary, signing Charvarius Ward and adding Cam Bynum. Both have been above-average tacklers. Moving on from safety Julian Blackmon and linebacker E.J. Speed could be addition by subtraction, in terms of missed tackles.  Swapping out Gus Bradley for creative former Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo should also be a positive, although the veteran coordinator couldn’t coax much out of the Cincinnati defense after a run to the Super Bowl in 2021. With more starting quarterbacks on the way and questions about what the Colts can offer under center, there are too many scenarios where they struggle to make it back to eight wins. Detroit LionsRecord in 2024: 15-2Point differential in 2024: plus-2222024 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 7-2Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: Second toughest in NFL Unlike their 15-win counterparts in the AFC, the Lions have a much stronger case to be considered something close to a dominant team, at least based on how they played in the regular season. They beat teams by an average of more than 13 points per contest and had one of the 10 best point differentials per game since 1989. Six of the nine teams that finished with better point differentials than the 2024 Lions made it to the Super Bowl. The Lions went 7-2 in one-score games, but again, they weren’t as reliant on narrow victories as the Chiefs. Detroit needed a late field goal to avoid a loss to the Vikings and kicked some more as time expired to break ties against the Texans and Packers, but they also had a handful of one-score games that looked close only because of late touchdowns in garbage time by the opposing offense. And though the Lions were eliminated at home in a 45-31 loss to the Commanders in the divisional round, Detroit fans have a legitimate, significant excuse: Some of them were being called out of the stands to play cornerback against Jayden Daniels. The Lions were down virtually all of their significant pass rushers and multiple starting defensive backs by game’s end. Coordinator Aaron Glenn kept the defense afloat without Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill by repeatedly turning the blitz meter higher and higher, but the Lions finally broke against a very good offense. They couldn’t survive turning the ball over five times with a defense in tatters. Every year, something I hear from fans is that there’s some element of their team that can’t be worse than it was a year ago. Usually, that isn’t true. One of the few exceptions I’m considering is the health of the Detroit defense. Glenn’s unit ranked last in adjusted games lost. It was the sixth-most-injured defense of the past 25 seasons. The Lions will be healthier on defense this season, which could lead to them being better than last season. The missing piece of information, as the FTN Football Almanac notes, is what happened on the other side of the ball. While everyone rightly noticed the Lions’ defense was an injured wreck, the Lions’ offense was spectacularly healthy. Detroit had the league’s second-healthiest offense in 2024. Depending on who you consider to be starters, its top 11 players missed just 10 games last season: Three from left tackle Taylor Decker, three more by running back David Montgomery, and one each from guard Graham Glasgow, center Frank Ragnow, tight end Sam LaPorta and guard Kevin Zeitler. The Lions finished 25th in combined AGL; they should be healthier this season, but more injuries on offense likely will offset some of the improvements on defense. They’re already down defensive lineman Levi Onwuzurike and cornerback Ennis Rakestraw, both of whom are out for the season. The other reason for concern about the offense looms in the middle of the line. While the Lions have great tackles in Decker and superstar Penei Sewell, the interior of their line is suddenly an obvious place for opposing teams to attack. They lost Jonah Jackson last year and replaced him with a solid veteran in Zeitler, who left for Tennessee in the offseason. Ragnow, a four-time Pro Bowler, unexpectedly retired at 29. Now, the Lions are moving around players. They used a second-round pick on Tate Ratledge and intended to move him to center, but several days into camp, they shifted him back to guard and pushed Glasgow to center. The new starter at left guard will be Christian Mahogany, a 2024 sixth-round pick who looked promising in two spot starts last season, but that was alongside Ragnow, one of the league’s best centers. Coach Dan Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes deserve some benefit of the doubt based on their success, but it’s fair to be nervous that a line with two inexperienced starters and three players in new spots will take some time to jell, if not struggle notably. That’s a real concern because keeping Jared Goff unbothered and free to operate within the pocket has been essential. Every quarterback gets worse under pressure, but Goff has bigger splits than any other passer. Over the past three seasons, he leads all quarterbacks in Total QBR (78.2) when opposing defenses don’t get home with pressure. When they do, his 17.6 QBR is 28th. If the Lions can’t handle interior pressure, teams will give Goff fits. Keep in mind that the Bears (Grady Jarrett) and Vikings (Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen) added veteran defensive tackles with pass-rush bite this offseason. There’s also uncertainty about whether the Lions will have as many answers from their coaching staff after losing Glenn and Ben Johnson to head coaching gigs elsewhere. Campbell brought back John Morton from Denver as his offensive coordinator and promoted linebackers coach Kelvin Sheppard as the defensive coordinator. It’s admirable to see a coach promote from within, and Johnson wasn’t a household name before he emerged as the league’s hottest coordinator over the past two years, but the bar here on both sides of the ball is extremely high..The vast majority of coordinators don’t do a good enough job to earn head coaching opportunities elsewhere, especially if they haven’t been a head coach before. The 2023 Eagles are an example of a team that lost both of its coordinators, promoted from within on one side of the ball (Brian Johnson), added someone it respected on the other (Vic Fangio disciple Sean Desai) and fired both before the start of the next season. I’m not saying that’s about to happen in Detroit, but it’s only realistic to believe the Lions will struggle to get the same caliber of game planning and adjustments that Johnson and Glenn delivered weekly from a pair of relatively inexperienced coordinators. Also, Detroit’s schedule will be tough, but that’s nothing new for the Lions; they faced the league’s sixth-toughest slate a year ago, so moving up to its second-toughest schedule shouldn’t be overwhelming. Eleven of their 17 games come against teams that made it to the playoffs in 2024, and while that can be an outdated measure of which teams could be tough by the time we get through 2025, nine of their games are against teams FPI projects to be playoff teams in 2025, a list that doesn’t include the Vikings and Steelers. FPI is arguably more pessimistic about the Lions than I expect most people would believe. Though the model gives them the fifth-highest playoff odds, it believes Detroit has a 35% chance of missing the playoffs, likely because of the stiff competition in the division. I’d be shocked if the Lions became this year’s 49ers and missed the postseason, but I’d expect Detroit to settle back in the 12-win range after last season’s two-loss campaign.