The Daily Briefing Tuesday, April 18, 2023

THE DAILY BRIEFING

NFC EAST

PHILADELPHIA

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com admires the way the Eagles just went out and spent $250 million plus.

With three years in, the window for a new deal open, and his one year left on the rookie contract, the Eagles took care of their young franchise quarterback.

 

They didn’t delay. They didn’t make excuses. They didn’t play games. They recognized the value of the player, they realized that he’ll only get better the more he plays, and they made the commitment necessary to keep him around, well into the future.

 

For his part, Hurts knew when to do a deal — and how to do a deal. With the help of agent Nicole Lynn, Hurts accepted the richest deal in league history, in terms of new-money average.

 

We’ll get the full details and do a full breakdown. We’ll try to make sense of what it means for other quarterbacks, from those who are due to get new deals (Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert) to those who are overdue (Lamar Jackson).

 

One assessment of the Hurts deal will be whether Lamar Jackson should want the Hurts deal as written, or whether he should want something else. Shorter term, more dollars, more guarantees, etc.

 

Regardless, Hurts got a great deal. The Eagles did a smart deal. It’s a win-win, and it binds one of the best quarterbacks in the league to his current team for up to six more years, and possibly longer than that. With no drama, no awkwardness, no animosity.

We would say that if we ran a team we would find it a lot easier to bet on Hurts and his continued professionalism and productivity than we would Lamar Jackson.

NFC SOUTH
 

CAROLINA

Have the Panthers told QB BRYCE YOUNG not to waste his time?

@TomPelissero

Alabama QB Bryce Young has canceled his remaining pre-draft visits, per sources — another sign to back up belief within the league that the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner will be the #Panthers’ pick at No. 1 overall.

 

Young also visited the #Texans, who draft No. 2.

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

WR DeANDRE HOPKINS wants a new team, but he’s not looking for a new contract. Christian Gonzalez of NFL.com:

It’s been a busy offseason week for the Arizona Cardinals.

 

Arizona Cardinals safety Budda Baker isn’t the only player whose future in the desert is unclear. On Sunday, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins took to Twitter to say any issues he may have are not related to his contract.

 

“Hopkins doesn’t want a raise,” the three-time All-Pro receiver tweeted with “Nuk.” at the end of the post. According to Over the Cap, Hopkins is set to make $19.45 million in 2023 and $14.915 in 2024 as part of an extension he signed in Sept. 2020.

 

The tweet comes at a time when Hopkins has been part of trade speculation since the offseason started.

 

Last week, Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon spoke with the media when the team began its offseason strength and conditioning program. Hopkins notably was not present.

 

“We’ll see. I’ve been in communication with D-Hop,” Gannon told reporters on April 11. “I want to do what’s best for him and us, at the same time. When he’s ready to come, he’ll come and improve his game, too.”

– – –

Former Cardinals exec Terry McDonough, locked in a war of words with owner Michael Bidwill and his PR team, reveals his goal is nothing short of having Bidwill stripped of his team.

Former Cardinals executive Terry McDonough isn’t afraid to fight owner Michael Bidwill. And McDonough isn’t backing down in response to the aggressive defense the team has presented on its own behalf.

 

McDonough sent some pointed comments via text message to Doug Franz, host of the Doug Franz Unplugged Podcast.

 

“Bidwill’s days of owning the Cardinals will soon be coming to an end, and he has NOBODY to blame but himself and his horrific behavior towards so many people,” McDonough said, via Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic. “And that is ON the record.”

 

McDonough’s text message chides Bidwill for attempting to “destroy” the “character” of McDonough, in order to conceal “how truly heinous [his] behavior has been towards pregnant [women], multiple minorities etc.”

 

“I am not going anywhere,” McDonough said. “He brought all of this on himself. His biggest mistake is this — he never thought he was going to be held accountable for his cruel and uncivilized behavior towards many people. His time of owning [an] NFL team is going to come to a quick and abrupt end.”

 

It’s a bold move by McDonough. And it’s possible if not likely that he’ll be instructed to stop talking by whoever Commissioner Roger Goodell appoints to handle the arbitration case McDonough has filed.

 

Already, portions of McDonough’s claims have been corroborated by former Cardinals COO Ron Minegar, in comments last week to PFT. It remains to be seen whether other current or former employees will speak out, and whether the NFL will investigate any aspect of the situation, including McDonough’s claim that Bidwill instructed McDonough and former head coach Steve Wilks to communicate with former G.M. Steve Keim during Keim’s five-week suspension for extreme DUI.

 

For Bidwill, the best outcome would be for the situation to not grow legs, to not attract attention. The more it does, the more likely the league office will send Mary Jo White to start looking for something that she might possibly find.

As the DB understands this – McDonough feels he has a personal grievance towards Bidwill and the Cardinals, looking for money because of his unjust termination.  He links that termination towards his allegedly heroic exposure of the burner phone scheme to contact suspended GM Steve Keim and his support of Steve Wilks who was fired after a 3-13 season.

But now, he is also portraying himself as a general hero to all the generations of aggrieved, but silent, Cardinals employees.

Bidwill has had two Black head coaches, a Black GM and numerous other prominent Black executives and drafted a problematic Black QB first overall – but McDonough is trying to portray him as an unfit owner because one of his many tirades at employees was against a person of color.

And this he feels will lead the NFL to a Snyder-like and Richardson-like forced sale.

AFC WEST
 

DENVER

QB RUSSELL WILSON had a dangerous round of golf. Lou Flavius of ProFootballRumors.com:

Russell Wilson is heading into what could be the most important season of his career following his underwhelming first campaign for the Denver Broncos in 2022. And the quarterback is enjoying some time off ahead of what should be a very interesting season, with Sean Payton now in charge of the team.

 

Things could have gone horribly wrong for him as reports claim he narrowly escaped a serious injury, having gotten involved in a recent golf cart accident.

 

According to Mat Smith, host of 104.3 The Fan, the QB flipped the cart into a bunker at the Arrowhead Golf Couse in Littleton, Colorado on Saturday. Thankfully, no one was hurt.

 

It appears Wilson did not see the bunker while looking for his ball and drove straight into it.

 

Such an incident could have totally ruined what he totally hopes will be his comeback season in 2023 and could have also put Denver in a serious bind, given what they had to give up to get Payton as their head coach.

 

It’s also pretty ironic that the accident took place on a golf course with the same name as the Broncos’ biggest divisional rivals, the Kansas City Chiefs.

 

Fortunately for everyone, the signal-caller did not cart himself to a freak injury and should be ready to go under his new coach next term.

KANSAS CITY

QB PATRICK MAHOMES is still on the mend.  Adam Teicher of ESPN.com:

Patrick Mahomes is throwing to Kansas City Chiefs receivers and running backs near his offseason home in Texas but said he’s still rehabbing the high ankle sprain he dealt with throughout the playoffs.

 

“It’s been more about just kind of managing it, getting the mobility back as best as I possibly can,” Mahomes said Monday as the Chiefs began their offseason program. “I wouldn’t say I’m 100%. … It’s just when you go through a grind of a week of training and you’re trying to push it and go through the rehab process, but at the same time you want to make sure you’re still building, you might be a little sore on the weekends. But I think we’ve done a great job of pushing it to the right limit to where now I’m throwing.

 

“There will still be a little bit of limitations going the next few weeks, but I’m going to be happy with where I’m at and we’ll keep pushing it and getting me to the right spot before the beginning of the season.”

 

Mahomes was injured during the Chiefs’ divisional round playoff win over the Jacksonville Jaguars and played at something less than full strength during the rest of that game, the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl LVII. He still played well enough in the conference championship game and the Super Bowl win over the Philadelphia Eagles to throw for a combined 508 yards and five touchdowns.

 

Mahomes was limited in the offseason two years ago after having toe surgery for an injury that plagued him in the Chiefs’ Super Bowl LV loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The team started the next season in 2021 at 3-4, by far its worst beginning to a season since Mahomes became the starting quarterback. Mahomes said he felt limited physically to begin that season because of the surgery.

 

No surgery was necessary for the high ankle sprain, and he said this injury wouldn’t be a similar problem lingering into the season.

 

“The foot, with having the surgery and having that cast on it, it just really cut my mobility down a lot and so I had to really work through that even into the season that next year,” Mahomes said.

 

“With the ankle, I’ve felt like we’ve improved, especially these last few weeks, a ton as far as the swelling. That went down finally. I don’t have that soreness just as much as I was having it after a few days of work. With the improvements that we’re making these last few weeks, I have a great feeling that by the time we get to training camp, it wouldn’t even be any question at all. We’ll continue to work through it. By OTAs [starting in May], I don’t think there’ll be any limitations on reps or anything like that, especially if I’m not running around a ton. But at the same time, we’ll continue the rehab process and making sure by the time we get to training camp, I can just roll out there and feel perfectly fine.”

AFC SOUTH
 

HOUSTON

Does GM Nick Cesario really not want to exercise the 2nd overall pick?  Shanna McCarriston of CBSSports.com:

Houston Texans general manager Nick Caserio is adamant that he will remain with the team, despite rumors that he will be leaving after the 2023 NFL Draft. Caserio addressed the rumors during a press conference Monday.

 

“Quite frankly, I’m almost embarrassed I have to,” Caserio said of discussing the idea that he could leave. “I feel sort of like Leonardo DiCaprio in ‘[The] Wolf of Wall Street.’ I’m not leaving. There’s never really been any substantive discussions of the sort.”

 

Caserio discussed other details about the upcoming draft, saying teams have called him looking to trade up to the No. 2 pick.

 

“Are we open for business? We’re open to listening,” Caserio said.

 

The Carolina Panthers have the No. 1 overall pick, trading up from No. 9 in a deal with the Bears. Carolina is expected to draft a quarterback, likely Bryce Young (Alabama) or C.J. Stroud (Ohio State). Anthony Richardson (Florida) and Will Levis (Kentucky) are the other quarterbacks expected to be taken early in the draft.

 

If the Texans feel they can get the player they want later in the draft and can get value from their No. 2 pick, they may bite. If they are sold on Young or Stroud, they will need to remain at No. 2 in order to take whoever the Panthers do not get.

 

INDIANAPOLIS

Will the Colts take QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON at #4? That is the consensus of the “experts” polled by Scott Horner of the Indy Star:

Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay tweeted the team’s options for the 2023 NFL Draft over the weekend. Here’s the summary: “All options on the table.”

 

So with that totally cleared up, the guessing about who they will pick at No. 4 (or maybe No. 3) on April 27 is centered on Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson, though those hunches aren’t unanimous.

 

Justin Melo, the Draft Network: Anthony Richardson

(Notable: Will Levis has already been selected and C.J. Stroud remains available)

The board falls Indianapolis’ way in this NFL mock draft scenario. New Colts head coach Shane Steichen helped Jalen Hurts develop into a dual-threat phenom in Philadelphia. Steichen can achieve something similar with Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis. Richardson is the most athletic quarterback to enter the league since Lamar Jackson.

 

Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz, USA Today: Richardson

Owner Jim Irsay summed up the current moment in the draft process with a seemingly meaningless tweet Sunday, leaving fans to decipher any intention behind how he decided to order the photos of the top four quarterbacks in the draft. Richardson earns this spot not due to Irsay placing him first among those photos, but instead for the remarkable potential he would bring to a franchise burned out on short-term solutions. If this pairing does materialize, it would be a boon to both Richardson and coach Shane Steichen, whose track record suggests he’d do a fine job of making use of the 6-4, 244-pounder’s dazzling deep passing and singular mobility.

 

Ryan Wilson, CBS Sports: Richardson

Richardson was pretty impressive at his pro day; he’s built like a defensive end runs like a power back and can throw the football 80 yards and make it look easy. His athleticism and arm strength leave a lasting impression when you see him in person, as does the effortlessness with which he plays. But what he has in God-given ability, he lacks in experience, so his best landing spot at the next level will be to a team with a veteran quarterback who can man the reins for another year or two until he’s ready to take the next step. And if managed properly, that next step could truly be special.

 

Charles Davis, NFL.com: Will Levis

If this pairing comes to fruition, don’t be surprised if Levis takes the first snap in Week 1, despite Indy’s signing of Gardner Minshew in free agency.

 

Walter Football: Will Anderson

The Colts need to find a permanent solution at quarterback, rather than play musical chairs at the position. In a previous scenario, the Colts were trading up with the Bears to leapfrog the divisional rival Texans to obtain the quarterback they want in this class. Now, they have to hope that the team that moves up to No. 3 doesn’t take the signal-caller they like. Perhaps they’ll make the move themselves, or trade for Lamar Jackson.

 

Danny Kelly, The Ringer: Richardson

(Notable: Colts trade up one spot to No. 3; they give Arizona the Nos. 4, 79, 106 picks this year and a 2024 third-round pick)

 

The Colts decide to go get their man, trading up one spot with the Cardinals to ensure no other QB-needy teams jump them. Richardson is raw, with just 13 starts on his résumé, but he boasts truly rare physical skills as both a passer and runner. New head coach Shane Steichen could implement a Jalen Hurts–style plan around his new quarterback, bringing a read-option and run-centric scheme that highlights Richardson’s skill set while giving him the opportunity to hone his abilities as a passer.

 

Seth Trachtman, Yardbarker: Richardson

There isn’t an athlete in the draft with more upside that Richardson, but turning him into an NFL quarterback will take coaching and patience. Richardson is a risky prospect, but has all the physical tools despite lacking college production. Richardson will need time after completing only 54% of his passes last season, but the upside for the Colts could be worth it.

 

Rhett Lewis, NFL.com: Richardson

Arguably the biggest wild card of the draft, Richardson also possesses the highest upside. The Colts must come away with a QB of the future, and if they’re deciding between Richardson and Kentucky’s Will Levis, who have similar floors as prospects, then why not take the player with the highest upside.

 

THIS AND THAT

 

2023 DRAFT

Brad Spielberger of ProFootballFocus.com likes or dislikes some rumors that he has heard floating around:

“One of the top four quarterbacks could slide out of the top 10”

Verdict: Buying

 

When all is said and done, we wouldn’t be surprised if either Florida’s Anthony Richardson or Kentucky’s Will Levis goes off the board later than expected. Levis could be the true name to watch here due to Richardson’s off-the-charts athleticism.

 

Levis has a few things working strongly in his favor in the eyes of clubs: extensive experience in pro-style offenses, rushing ability for the occasional designed run with scrambling upside, a rocket arm and toughness playing through multiple injuries this past season.

 

While the injuries provide important context, Levis nonetheless ranked 101st in the FBS with 54.4% of his passes deemed accurate in 2022. In his penultimate season in 2021, he was better at 57.6%, but that still ranked just 55th. Throw on his tape and you’ll see the occasional airmail.

 

To a degree, we may have started treating top wide receiver prospects like we do top quarterback prospects. That is, with elite college talent at the position flying off the board early in the past few drafts, we’ve come to expect it every year. However, the top of this class is not held in very high regard across the league, and we wouldn’t be shocked if no wide receivers are selected through the first dozen or so picks, with perhaps only one or two in the top 20.

 

“Hendon Hooker will go in the first round”

Verdict: Selling

 

With each passing day there seems to be another credible draft analyst who expects Hooker to be a first-round pick, but we struggle to see it happening. A 25-year-old prospect coming off a torn ACL is tough to believe on its own, but the teams commonly linked to Hooker also don’t make a ton of sense.

 

The Minnesota Vikings undoubtedly need a quarterback of the future with Kirk Cousins entering the final year of his contract, but they don’t pick until No. 86 overall after No. 23 in the first round, which would mean they potentially add zero 2023 contributors with a Hooker selection.

 

Another popular narrative is that a team may trade up into the bottom of the first round for Hooker. While this is entirely feasible, besides the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 30 overall, the teams holding the final six selections have not historically been interested in trading down. All trends can be broken, but they are worth noting in this context nonetheless.

 

Hooker’s 43.7 passing grade when pressured ranked 61st among FBS quarterbacks in 2022, and while the stat can be unstable, he also earned a 48.6 mark in 2021, with his 65 sacks taken over the last two seasons tied for the sixth most in the FBS. Hooker’s 64 sacks taken on 196 pressured dropbacks over the span equates to a 33% sack rate when pressured, the second-worst mark in the country over the past two seasons.

 

“There will be a major run on cornerbacks in the first round”

Verdict: Buying

 

As of today, we’d expect a minimum of five cornerbacks to be selected in the first round, with a guess on the order as follows: Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez, Illinois’ Devon Witherspoon, Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr. and a toss-up between Mississippi State’s Emmanuel Forbes and Maryland’s Deonte Banks.

 

Alabama’s Brian Branch is viewed as a slot defender who may ultimately become classified as a safety at the next level, but he’s currently listed as a cornerback on NFL.com, which is notable for the many sportsbooks that determine the outcome of position-based draft prop bets based on that information.

 

A few more players who could sneak into the first round are South Carolina’s Cam Smith, Michigan’s D.J. Turner and Miami’s Tyrique Stevenson, though this isn’t a prediction that will happen.

 

“Georgia Tech edge defender Keion White will go in the first round”

Verdict: Selling

 

The NFL released a list of 17 players who accepted invitations to Kansas City for the first night of the draft, and White was a notable inclusion among the top talents. Shortly after the list was released, folks ran rampant with the presumption that White must be a first-round pick if he got an invite to sit in the green room.

 

In 2022, three players who went on to be third-round selections were in the draft green room, as was Chicago Bears cornerback Kyler Gordon, who eventually came off the board at No. 39 overall in the second round. We expect White to ultimately be selected in Gordon’s range, if not a bit later.

 

White is described by evaluators as having intriguing traits and athletic tools at his disposal, with a raw skill set that could improve with NFL coaching. This is always a good way for a player to go earlier than his college production may indicate, but it’s less meaningful for a 24-year-old with effectively one season at edge defender under his belt. On true pass sets in 2022, White’s 17.6% pressure rate ranked 72nd among FBS edge defenders with at least 50 such snaps. There could certainly be some untapped potential, but how much for one of the oldest players in the class?

 

“Offensive tackles may not come off the board as early as usual”

Verdict: Buying

 

There are a handful of intriguing prospects at offensive tackle, but all of the big names carry enough concerns that many around the league do not expect them to go as early as the position often warrants. Blue-chip tackle prospects don’t make it out of the top 10 or 15 often, but this year they could slide as defensive linemen and cornerbacks come off early.

 

Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski is viewed as a guard by many teams on account of his shorter arms, yet he’s still considered most likely to be the first offensive lineman taken around the league. It’s very possible he’s the only offensive lineman to go in the top 10.

– – –

Jordan Dajani of CBSSports.com identifies the teams most likely to move around next Thursday:

 

The 2023 NFL Draft is less than two weeks away, and there are plenty of questions to ponder before April 27. One revolves the draft order, as it is sure to change.

 

We already saw the Carolina Panthers make an aggressive move up the draft board from No. 9 overall to No. 1 overall. What other teams could trade up or down in the first round to target players? Many first-round picks have to do with acquiring quarterbacks, and it’s expected we see at least one quarterback-related trade this year. This class features a couple of polarizing signal-callers, so expect fireworks come draft night.

 

Below, we will break down five NFL teams that are most likely to trade up in the first round, and five teams most likely to trade down.

 

Teams most likely to trade up

 

Indianapolis Colts (No. 4 overall)

The Colts are expected to draft their quarterback of the future at No. 4 overall. Unfortunately, they won’t have their pick of the litter. The Panthers and Houston Texans are expected to select quarterbacks to start the draft, and then the Arizona Cardinals at No. 3 are a prime candidate to trade down (more on that later). Are the Colts really just going to take that fourth quarterback — whoever it is — because they need one? That doesn’t sound like a great game plan.

 

Many recent mock drafts have the Colts moving up to No. 3 overall to choose between Anthony Richardson and Will Levis — which may be better than being forced to take the one quarterback the first three teams pass on. It won’t be cheap, but Indy is a team to watch to move up.

 

Las Vegas Raiders (No. 7 overall)

In my first-round mock draft, it’s the Raiders I have moving up to No. 3 overall. Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t receive big-time money to join Josh McDaniels in Vegas, and he’s not exactly a spring chicken. Coach McDaniels likely doesn’t have a long leash, so jumping up to secure the potential stud who could star in Sin City for years to come is something that could happen. It’s probably not a possibility the entire fan base is in love with, but it’s a possibility nonetheless.

 

Tennessee Titans (No. 11 overall)

The Titans have already reportedly explored trading up to No. 3 overall. Not only does this move make sense with Ryan Tannehill having just one more year remaining on his contract, but new Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort spent the past three seasons as the Titans’ director of player personnel. There’s some familiarity between these two organizations. New Titans GM Ran Carthon played his college football at the University of Florida. Maybe he’s intrigued by Richardson.

 

Minnesota Vikings (No. 23 overall)

The Vikings are another team that could make the aggressive move up to No. 3 overall, but they are also a candidate to just trade up in the first round. Period. Kirk Cousins is likely entering his final season with Minnesota, and the Vikings could be in the market for one of the top quarterbacks in the draft. Kevin O’Connell is an offensive-minded head coach, and he’s not going to risk wasting Justin Jefferson’s prime being patient looking for his next franchise quarterback. If Minnesota’s front office likes someone in this class, the Vikings could be aggressive.

 

Additionally, the Vikings at No. 23 overall are also a candidate to make a smaller trade up the draft board. If someone like Levis begins to fall into the teens, or they want to secure Hendon Hooker, the Vikings could make a trade up.

 

Buffalo Bills (No. 27 overall)

It was a disappointing end to the 2022 season for Buffalo. Despite being the preseason Super Bowl favorite, the Bills couldn’t get to the AFC Championship game. The Bills are still one of the best teams in the league, but they need another offensive weapon. ESPN reported last week Buffalo has interest in moving up. Matt Miller believes it could be for an interior offensive lineman or offensive skill player. On a related note, it would be sweet to see Bijan Robinson in this offense.

 

Teams most likely to trade down

 

Arizona Cardinals (No. 3 overall)

At No. 3 overall and not in need of a quarterback, the Cardinals are expected to sell their first-round selection for a pretty penny. It’s not a guarantee, though. Nothing is when it comes to the draft.

 

Houston Texans (No. 2 & No. 12 overall)

There are rumors the Texans may not be sold on a quarterback at No. 2 overall, and some mocks even have them trading out of that first pick. While I view that possibility as unlikely, the Texans do hold the No. 12 overall pick as well. Teams with multiple first-round selections are more likely to trade in my opinion. That’s especially true for the Texas at No. 12, where another team could move up for a quarterback that has fallen outside of the top 10.

 

Seattle Seahawks (No. 5 overall & No. 20 overall)

Here’s another team with multiple first-round picks. At No. 20, John Schneider will have some options, but I’m also keeping an eye at No. 5 overall. Sure, the top four quarterbacks could be off the board at this point, but what if they aren’t? One QB-needy team could be aggressive and contact Seattle. With 10 total picks, I think the Seahawks could be candidates to trade up or down later this month. 

 

Philadelphia Eagles (No. 10 & No. 30 overall)

Howie Roseman is one of the best general managers in the NFL, and he averages a whopping four trades per year either during the draft or in the days immediately prior. With two first-rounders but just six overall picks, the Eagles are very much live to trade down in my opinion.

 

Detroit Lions (No. 6 & No. 18 overall)

Believe it or not, the Lions are the favorites to win the NFC North in 2023, but they need to upgrade on defense. General manager Brad Holmes has done a solid job adding pieces in free agency, but he’s not done yet. I expect Detroit will take a pass rusher or defensive lineman at No. 6 overall, but things could get interesting once we work our way down into the teens.

 

– – –

Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com says the new betting odds reflect the rumors that the Texans are disenchanted with QB C.J.

STROUD:

The conventional wisdom for most of the last three months has been that the Panthers would probably take Alabama quarterback Bryce Young with the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft, and the Texans would take Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud No. 2. That’s no longer the case.

 

Young looks almost certain to go to the Panthers, but there are growing doubts that the Texans will take Stroud.

 

In fact, the betting odds now see Stroud as a long shot to be the No. 2 overall pick. The odds at FanDuel currently list Alabama pass rusher Will Anderson as the favorite to go No. 2, at +190. Kentucky quarterback Will Levis is next at +270. Stroud is tied with Texas Tech pass rusher Tyree Wilson at +340.

 

That’s a dramatic shift, and it indicates that people in the know think the Texans just aren’t very high on Stroud, and that no other team is high enough on Stroud that they’ll bowl the Texans over with a trade offer to move up to No. 2.

 

With Young now a near-lock to go No. 1, the real intrigue in the draft is at No. 2, and no one seems to know for sure what the Texans are thinking.

 

ALTERNATE MOCK DRAFT – MEL KIPER, JR & TODD McSHAY

In a little over a week, on Thursday, April 27, 31 players will have new teams in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft. The following night, 71 more names will be called in the second and third rounds. NFL draft analysts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay took a closer look at Days 1 and 2 of the draft with projections for all 102 of those picks.

 

They took turns making selections, alternating from Mel’s pick for the Panthers at No. 1 through Todd’s prediction for the Niners’ compensatory slot at No. 102. Mel has the odd numbers; Todd has the evens.

 

An important note for this mock, though: They based picks on a combination of what they think each team will do and what they would do if they were playing general manager for all 32 teams. They used their personal rankings to guide them. No trades allowed here, either. Eight teams make at least four picks, and all 32 franchises have at least one selection — though the Broncos, Browns and 49ers all have to wait until Round 3.

 

Let’s get going, starting with Kiper’s tough quarterback decision atop the board. And be sure to check out our “SportsCenter” Mock Draft Special on Tuesday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2) that dives deeper into this mock draft.

 

ROUND 1

 

1. Carolina Panthers (from CHI)

Kiper’s pick: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

I’m doing this mock draft to fill needs — within reason. My No. 1 overall prospect? Defensive tackle Jalen Carter. The Panthers have to get a quarterback, though, and they can get their choice of them at No. 1. Young has superstar potential.

 

2. Houston Texans

McShay’s pick: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

I really wouldn’t be surprised if Houston jumps at the chance to draft a dominant defender like Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr., but I’m making the pick here, and there’s no way I’m passing up one of the top two quarterbacks in the class with that glaring need. Stroud is extremely accurate and would give the Texans’ offense a franchise passer to build around.

 

3. Arizona Cardinals

Kiper’s pick: Will Anderson Jr., DE, Alabama

The Cardinals are extremely thin along the defensive line. Anderson could become one of the faces of their franchise. He could have been the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft.

 

4. Indianapolis Colts

McShay’s pick: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

Indy has to solve the problem under center. Richardson might not be ready to play right away, but the sky is the limit on his potential. With a huge arm and great mobility, he’d be a dynamic player running new coach Shane Steichen’s offense.

 

5. Seattle Seahawks (from DEN)

Kiper’s pick: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

If Carter falls to Seattle here, general manager John Schneider might rush the pick to the podium. Carter is a perfect fit in the middle of Seattle’s defense. He will eat up blockers and make everyone around him better.

 

6. Detroit Lions (from LAR)

McShay’s pick: Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

I was hoping Jalen Carter would fall here, but Wilson is a really good fit with the Lions, who had well-documented defensive issues last season. Pair him with Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston, and that edge rush could cause problems for opponents.

 

7. Las Vegas Raiders

Kiper’s pick: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

I thought hard about Kentucky quarterback Will Levis, but the reality is the Raiders believe they have the roster to compete in the AFC West this season. That’s why they signed Jimmy Garoppolo. If they want a defender to help them in 2023, it’s Witherspoon, who could immediately become their top guy.

 

8. Atlanta Falcons

McShay’s pick: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

How about popping in Gonzalez — who has great speed, size and ball skills — opposite A.J. Terrell? The Falcons gave up 7.3 yards per pass attempt last season (23rd in the NFL), but this duo could smother opposing receivers.

 

9. Chicago Bears (from CAR)

Kiper’s pick: Peter Skoronski, OT/G, Northwestern

I’ve gone back and forth on which offensive lineman the Bears will take here, but Skoronski is the best on my board (No. 8 overall), even though I like him a little more as a guard. Chicago needs a right tackle, which is why I projected Darnell Wright here in my two-round mock. I’d be confident in Skoronski’s ability to learn the position.

 

10. Philadelphia Eagles (from NO)

McShay’s pick: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

Look, I know he won’t go this high, and we can spend hours talking about running back value in Round 1. But Robinson is my No. 2 overall prospect and makes sense in this Eagles offense. He is a complete back who could dominate alongside newly extended quarterback Jalen Hurts in the backfield.

 

11. Tennessee Titans

Kiper’s pick: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Thanks for not taking my guy, Todd, and leaving him here for me. The Titans could get one of the steals of the draft. Levis is a little bit of a gunslinger, but he hasn’t come close to his ceiling. He is my second-ranked passer in this class. With the right infrastructure around him, he is going to thrive. Tennessee has playmakers to help him. Now it needs an offensive lineman (or two) on Day 2.

 

12. Houston Texans (from CLE)

McShay’s pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

I landed both of the Texans’ picks in Round 1, and I’m keeping the pairing of C.J. Stroud and Jaxon Smith-Njigba together after they piled up 1,606 receiving yards and nine TDs in 2021 at Ohio State (before a hamstring injury limited Smith-Njigba last year). The wideout is a super smooth route runner and could be a star in the NFL.

 

13. New York Jets

Kiper’s pick: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

As we await the outcome of the Aaron Rodgers tug of war with the Packers, the Jets have to find a new starter at right tackle. Jones started every game at left tackle for the national champs last season, but he has the versatility to move to the right side.

 

14. New England Patriots

McShay’s pick: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

Man, I thought about tight end Dalton Kincaid here. Patriots coach Bill Belichick loves two-TE sets, and Kincaid would be great with Hunter Henry. But quarterback Mac Jones also needs protection after struggles under pressure last season, and Johnson has the size, power and awareness to hold down left tackle. (Johnson also is versatile enough to play elsewhere along the line while Trent Brown is still under contract.)

 

15. Green Bay Packers

Kiper’s pick: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

There are some good edge rushers still on the board, but I wouldn’t pass up Kincaid if I were running Green Bay’s draft. He is the best pass-catching tight end in this draft, a true seam stretcher with soft hands.

 

16. Washington Commanders

McShay’s pick: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

I know Washington just signed Andrew Wylie, but Wright is an excellent run-blocker who could be a long-term solution at right tackle. And if the Commanders want, they could bump him inside as a rookie. Wright plays with power and quickness to open running lanes and stall pass-rush attempts.

 

17. Pittsburgh Steelers

Kiper’s pick: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

What a landing spot for one of my favorite prospects in this class. Flowers can play inside or outside, and he can make defenders miss after the catch. The Steelers can fill their need at cornerback in Round 2.

 

18. Detroit Lions

McShay’s pick: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh

OK, I like this. We’re building one heck of a defensive line in Detroit after landing Tyree Wilson earlier. Sure, Kancey is undersized (6-foot-1, 281 pounds), but he is explosive and can make an impact as both a run-stuffer and an interior pass-rusher.

 

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kiper’s pick: Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa

I’m not quite as high on Van Ness — he is outside my top 25 overall — as you, Todd, but NFL teams reach for edge rushers, and we haven’t had one in a while. I wouldn’t be surprised if Van Ness landed in the top 12. In Tampa Bay, he’d play end in the Bucs’ 3-4 defense.

 

20. Seattle Seahawks

McShay’s pick: Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia

It’s a slight slide for Smith, but Seattle won’t be complaining. He showed off his explosion at the combine, and you see it on tape too, with his great takeoff speed and change-of-direction ability. The Seahawks have to focus on building up that defensive line, so even after you got them Jalen Carter at No. 5, I’m getting them a disruptive edge rusher here.

 

21. Los Angeles Chargers

Kiper’s pick: Jordan Addison, WR, Southern California

Addison would mesh well with the skill sets of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in L.A., likely playing mostly in the slot. He is the best route runner of the wideouts in this class.

 

22. Baltimore Ravens

McShay’s pick: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State

The Ravens are looking for a playmaking corner to line up opposite Marlon Humphrey, so I think the guy who picked off 14 passes in college — including six pick-sixes — makes a lot of sense. Sure, Forbes is only 166 pounds, but his instincts, speed and arm length make him tough to beat. Mel, I know you’re also a big fan of his game.

 

23. Minnesota Vikings

Kiper’s pick: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

Corner is a clear weakness for Minnesota, which brought in Byron Murphy Jr. in free agency to replace veteran Patrick Peterson. The long-armed Porter could see early action outside. He didn’t have much production in college — one interception — but that should change at the next level.

 

24. Jacksonville Jaguars

McShay’s pick: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

Yes, the Jags just franchise-tagged Evan Engram, but this pick still makes sense to me for a team that could go “best available” at No. 24. Mayer will not only give quarterback Trevor Lawrence a big target to hit on third down and in the red zone, but he also is one of the best blocking tight ends in the class. And with Engram only under contract for the 2023 season, Mayer’s role could expand in the future.

 

25. New York Giants

Kiper’s pick: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

With the top three receivers off the board in this scenario, the Giants shouldn’t reach — which is what Todd is about to do for Dallas. New York should target a corner instead. Banks has the size, speed and instincts to be a No. 1 corner.

 

26. Dallas Cowboys

McShay’s pick: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

Yeah, you said it, Mel. This feels a little early for Johnston, but I played myself here a little bit by taking Michael Mayer — who would have been a perfect fit in Dallas — off the board two picks ago. Regardless, there’s no denying that the Cowboys need pass-catchers, and Johnston could be the true No. 2 behind CeeDee Lamb. Johnston has a big catch radius and can make plays downfield.

 

27. Buffalo Bills

Kiper’s pick: Trenton Simpson, ILB, Clemson

I’m breaking my rules a little bit, because I don’t have a first-round grade on Simpson. The Bills just don’t have many starting spots open, but they need a replacement inside for Tremaine Edmunds, who signed with the Bears. Simpson could fill that need; he has the coverage traits to play on third downs.

 

28. Cincinnati Bengals

McShay’s pick: Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State

I’m guessing this will be a bit of a surprise, but I love this dude’s tape. And I just moved Brents up to No. 27 overall on my board. He is tall and long, and he can smother receivers in press coverage. The Bengals really need some help in that area.

 

29. New Orleans Saints (from SF/MIA/DEN)

Kiper’s pick: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson

The Saints are a hard team to predict. Could they go tight end here? What about a young edge defender or safety? Ultimately, after they cleaned out their defensive tackle position this offseason, Bresee makes too much sense. He has some pass-rush upside too.

 

30. Philadelphia Eagles

McShay’s pick: Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson

How about the other really good defensive lineman from Clemson? The Eagles’ D-line was excellent last season, recording 70 sacks. But the unit is aging and could have depth issues. Murphy has the burst to get home on the QB and fits what the Eagles like to do in Round 1: build up the trenches.

 

31. Kansas City Chiefs

Kiper’s pick: Will McDonald IV, OLB, Iowa State

Here’s another team that can afford to take the best prospect available. The Chiefs selected defensive end George Karlaftis in Round 1 last year, and you can think of McDonald as complement to Karlaftis’ skill set. McDonald is a speed rusher who will wreck offensive tackles in pass situations.

 

ROUND 2

 

32. Pittsburgh Steelers (from CHI)

McShay’s pick: Brian Branch, S/CB, Alabama

DJ Turner (Michigan) would also be a good get for the cornerback room here, but I really love Branch’s versatility. Pittsburgh could line him up over the slot as a rookie, before dropping him to safety down the road.

 

33. Houston Texans

Kiper’s pick: Keion White, OLB, Georgia Tech

Todd, you went all offense for Houston in Round 1, so I have to take a defender here. White has the size and traits to make an impact as a rookie. Coach DeMeco Ryans would love working with him.

 

34. Arizona Cardinals

McShay’s pick: DJ Turner, CB, Michigan

I just mentioned Turner at the top of Round 2, and Arizona could keep building its defense back up with an ultra-fast cornerback here. The Cards only managed 11 interceptions last season and lost Byron Murphy Jr. to free agency.

 

35. Indianapolis Colts

Kiper’s pick: O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida

If we’re giving the Colts a quarterback in Round 1, we should help that passer here. Torrence can clear running lanes. He and Quenton Nelson would form one of the league’s most tenacious guard tandems.

 

36. Los Angeles Rams

McShay’s pick: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, DE, Kansas State

The Rams didn’t have a first-round pick, so their draft begins here with a speed rusher off the edge. Los Angeles has needs all over the place, but the lack of support for Aaron Donald in the front seven is pretty concerning. Anudike-Uzomah should provide immediate help.

 

37. Seattle Seahawks (from DEN)

Kiper’s pick: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee

This is where I’d feel comfortable taking Hooker if I were running a draft room. Seattle was able to fill defensive holes with its top two picks, and now it can try for its quarterback of the future. Geno Smith’s contract shouldn’t prohibit the Seahawks from taking Hooker if they like him.

 

38. Las Vegas Raiders

McShay’s pick: Steve Avila, C/G, TCU

Mel took care of the cornerback need in the first round, so I’m moving on to the offensive line in the second. The Raiders invested in Jimmy Garoppolo and franchise-tagged running back Josh Jacobs, so why not give them both some help on the interior line. Avila could end up being a really good run-blocker in the pros.

 

39. Carolina Panthers

Kiper’s pick: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee

When the Panthers traded away wide receiver DJ Moore to move up to the No. 1 pick, I was worried for the quarterback they were going to draft. Their pass-catcher depth chart was barren. Now, after signing veteran Adam Thielen in free agency and taking a speedy wideout in this projection, Bryce Young would have a much better chance as a rookie.

 

40. New Orleans Saints

McShay’s pick: Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State

Derek Carr loved targeting Darren Waller in Las Vegas, so I’m excited about landing Carr another tight end with great physical traits in New Orleans. Musgrave is a bit of a projection since he missed 10 games last season and didn’t have a ton of college production, but he has speed and a wide catch radius.

 

41. Tennessee Titans

Kiper’s pick: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia

I gave the Saints a defensive tackle in Round 1 when I thought hard about a tight end. Now, let’s snag that tight end. Washington is a mismatch in the pass game and a really solid blocker in the run game. He could thrive in the NFL with more targets.

 

42. New York Jets (from CLE)

McShay’s pick: Joe Tippmann, C, Wisconsin

Shoring up the offensive line is key for the Jets, especially if they land Aaron Rodgers. Mel brought in Broderick Jones in the first round to give them an offensive tackle, but the interior needs work too. Tippmann is my top-ranked center, and his mobility stands out on tape.

 

43. New York Jets

Kiper’s pick: Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT, Northwestern

Well, Todd stole my pick, but I guess it doesn’t matter since they’re both going to the Jets. Adebawore lit up at the combine, showing off his impressive physical traits. He has positional flexibility, even if he is likely never going to be a 10-sack-per-season player.

 

44. Atlanta Falcons

McShay’s pick: Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss

If Atlanta is going to give Desmond Ridder a real shot to be its answer under center, then it better get him another pass-catcher to complement Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Mingo is physical and can line up all over the offense. I’ve heard a lot of buzz around his name over the past month or so.

 

45. Green Bay Packers

Kiper’s pick: BJ Ojulari, OLB, LSU

The Packers are thinner than you think on the edge. Ojulari, my fourth-ranked outside linebacker, had more than 80 QB pressures over the past two seasons.

 

46. New England Patriots

McShay’s pick: Tyrique Stevenson, CB, Miami-FL

The Patriots re-signed Jonathan Jones, and their pass defense was pretty strong last season, but the cornerback room needs depth. Adding speed and physicality outside makes sense on Day 2.

 

47. Washington Commanders

Kiper’s pick: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia

Ringo is a boom-or-bust defender, and some scouts believe he’ll eventually move to safety. He is worth a flier in Round 2 because of his traits, though. If he puts his tools together, the Commanders could get a steal.

 

48. Detroit Lions

McShay’s pick: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama

I’m not sure Gibbs falls this far, but the Lions would love this scenario. They signed David Montgomery and already have D’Andre Swift, but Gibbs brings a different element to the offense than the former, and the latter hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Gibbs is nearly impossible to tackle in the open field and could put up big numbers as an after-the-catch playmaker for Jared Goff in the pass game.

 

49. Pittsburgh Steelers

Kiper’s pick: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

We’re doing a nice job tag-teaming Pittsburgh’s top needs, Todd, but one remains. I actually had this pairing at No. 32 overall in my two-round mock draft. Harrison could immediately challenge Dan Moore Jr. for the starting left tackle spot.

 

50. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

McShay’s pick: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State

At 6-foot-8 and 374 pounds, Jones is massive and could be the answer opposite Tristan Wirfs on an offensive line that needs support. The Bucs cut Donovan Smith and no longer have Tom Brady getting the ball out quickly. If Tampa Bay doesn’t go tackle in Round 1, it will likely take the best one on the board here in Round 2.

 

51. Miami Dolphins

Kiper’s pick: Brenton Strange, TE, Penn State

I struggled a little bit with this one, Miami’s first pick of the draft. Could it go with a running back or will it fill that need on the veteran market? I like Strange’s upside as a pass-catcher, and he is more rounded than Mike Gesicki, who left for New England in free agency.

 

52. Seattle Seahawks

McShay’s pick: Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State

Reed is one of my favorite prospects in the class. He is so good after the catch and can line up inside or outside. He would be the perfect complement to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in an offense that loves receivers who can generate separation.

 

53. Chicago Bears (from BAL)

Kiper’s pick: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan

The Bears really have to shore up the trenches in front of quarterback Justin Fields. Smith is one of the strongest players in this class. He won’t offer much as an interior pass-rusher, but he will plug holes in the run game.

 

54. Los Angeles Chargers

McShay’s pick: Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin

The Chargers allowed 5.4 yards per rush last season, by far the worst in the NFL. Benton has the power to stuff runs at the line of scrimmage and the quickness to make plays behind it.

 

55. Detroit Lions (from MIN)

Kiper’s pick: Drew Sanders, ILB, Arkansas

We’ve given Detroit two defensive linemen and a running back so far, but I still spot a void at linebacker. I want to see Sanders compete for a starting spot on the inside. At 6-foot-4, he could be used as a great blitzer too. He just makes plays.

 

56. Jacksonville Jaguars

McShay’s pick: Riley Moss, CB, Iowa

I know you have Moss as a safety at the next level, Mel, but I think he could start out at cornerback with Jacksonville. He is so instinctive and has the size (6-foot-1, 193 pounds) to compete with bigger receivers. Moss also picked off 11 passes in college, so he’d be a good addition for a Jags defense on the upswing.

 

57. New York Giants

Kiper’s pick: John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota

Todd and I probably overuse “plug and play,” but that’s exactly what Schmitz offers for the Giants. They need a starting center, and he can be that. He is a complete lineman.

 

58. Dallas Cowboys

McShay’s pick: Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa

A tight end this good, this late? It makes me feel better about the Cowboys missing out at the position in Round 1. LaPorta could give Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense an immediate answer to losing Dalton Schultz in free agency.

 

59. Buffalo Bills

Kiper’s pick: Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina

This is another fit I had in my two-round mock draft. Downs could fill a role as Buffalo’s slot receiver. He is extremely quick.

 

60. Cincinnati Bengals

McShay’s pick: Matthew Bergeron, OT/G, Syracuse

The Bengals signed Orlando Brown Jr. to end their pass-protection woes once and for all. But if Jonah Williams gets traded, the issues could pop right back up. Bergeron has the quicks and strength to provide depth at offensive tackle; but he also could play guard despite seeing just five snaps there in college.

 

61. Chicago Bears (from SF/CAR)

Kiper’s pick: Derick Hall, DE, Auburn

The Bears are devoid of pass-rushers; they haven’t added many guys this offseason who can get after the quarterback. Hall had 16 sacks over the past two seasons. He is a better fit for a team that runs a 3-4 defense, but he could be a situational rusher as a rookie while he puts on more weight to hold up against the run.

 

62. Philadelphia Eagles

McShay’s pick: Zacch Pickens, DT, South Carolina

More trench warfare for the Eagles! Fletcher Cox is 32 years old and on a one-year deal, so bringing in an explosive, powerful and versatile defensive lineman to stack next to Jordan Davis in the future is a good use of this late pick in Round 2.

 

63. Kansas City Chiefs

Kiper’s pick: Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma

I just love the idea of Mims in Kansas City. He can catch deep passes from Patrick Mahomes, and he is a stellar improviser on broken plays. If he cuts down on concentration drops, he’ll outplay his draft position.

 

ROUND 3 (* denotes a compensatory selection)

 

64. Chicago Bears

McShay’s pick: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina

I like what you did with the first three Chicago picks, Mel. You hit their top three positions of need, so I guess I’ll pivot to their fourth: cornerback. Smith is a reliable cover guy with great instincts and plenty of versatility.

 

65. Houston Texans

Kiper’s pick: Jack Campbell, ILB, Iowa

Off-ball linebackers have less value in today’s NFL as teams throw the ball much more than they run it, but Campbell is a really good player. He showed off his physical tools and change-of-direction skills at the combine. Houston needs impact players in this draft.

 

66. Arizona Cardinals

McShay’s pick: Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee

Whether or not DeAndre Hopkins gets traded, the Cardinals could use additional receiver help. And Tillman is a big pass-catcher with strong hands, downfield ability and really good body control. Injuries held him back a bit last season, but Tillman would be a good get in the third round.

 

67. Denver Broncos (from IND)

Kiper’s pick: Byron Young, OLB, Tennessee

At 6-foot-2 and 250 pounds, Young is undersized, but he has a nose for pressuring quarterbacks. This is Denver’s first pick in this draft, and it should focus on the front seven with one of these selections.

 

68. Denver Broncos

McShay’s pick: Tyjae Spears, RB, Tulane

Denver can stay right there at the podium to announce its new third-down back. Spears makes defenders miss, has breakaway speed and can make an impact in the pass game.

 

69. Los Angeles Rams

Kiper’s pick: Jartavius Martin, S, Illinois

The Rams have completely redone their secondary this offseason, but they still have a ways to go. This is not the best safety class, but Martin is my third-ranked player at the position. He played a bunch of corner snaps last season, but I see him as more of a center fielder in the NFL.

 

70. Las Vegas Raiders

McShay’s pick: Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State

The Raiders traded away Darren Waller, and new quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo ranked second in the NFL in yards per attempt on passes to tight ends last season (9.5). Kraft would be a red zone favorite for Garoppolo in Las Vegas.

 

71. New Orleans Saints

Kiper’s pick: A.T. Perry, WR, Wake Forest

Chris Olave caught 72 passes as a rookie last season, but no other Saints receiver had more than Rashid Shaheed’s 28 catches. Yes, Michael Thomas should be back healthy, but New Orleans could use another outside threat. The 6-foot-3 Perry had 26 touchdowns over the past two seasons.

 

72. Tennessee Titans

McShay’s pick: Cody Mauch, OT/G, North Dakota State

Building up the rest of the offense won’t mean much if we ignore the O-line, which allowed 49 sacks last season (tied for fifth most). With short arms for an NFL tackle, Mauch might be a better fit at guard, but there’s no doubting his explosion and ability to lock on in pass protection. Ryan Tannehill (and/or Will Levis) would be happy with this pick.

 

73. Houston Texans (from CLE)

Kiper’s pick: Jaquelin Roy, DT, LSU

This is the last of Houston’s five picks in the first three rounds, and we’ve gotten it a quarterback, wide receiver, edge rusher and inside linebacker so far. Why not more help along the spine of the defense? Roy is a nose tackle who can push the pile.

 

74. Cleveland Browns (from NYJ)

McShay’s pick: Gervon Dexter, DT, Florida

Welcome to the NFL draft, Cleveland. I’m wasting no time once the Browns are finally on the clock in addressing the roster’s biggest hole. It’s a thin defensive tackle class, but Dexter gives them depth up the middle and some interior pass-rushing upside thanks to his speed.

 

75. Atlanta Falcons

Kiper’s pick: Yasir Abdullah, OLB, Louisville

If we’re not giving the Falcons an edge rusher in the first two rounds — after they finished 31st in the league with 21 sacks last season — we have to get them one here. The undersized Abdullah is intriguing. He is only 6-foot-1, but he had 19.5 sacks and 35.5 total tackles for loss over the past two seasons. He is a good player.

 

76. New England Patriots (from CAR)

McShay’s pick: Rashee Rice, WR, SMU

Rice dominates over the middle of the field, and I could see him building a nice connection with quarterback Mac Jones as a reliable target. Even after New England signed JuJu Smith-Schuster, it wouldn’t feel right exiting Day 2 of the draft without giving the Pats a wide receiver.

 

77. Los Angeles Rams (from NE/MIA)

Kiper’s pick: Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA

Check out the Rams’ running back depth chart. Does that fire you up? Charbonnet might not break off many 50-yard runs in the NFL, but he can break tackles. He also has some potential as a pass-catcher. And he can stay local in this scenario.

 

78. Green Bay Packers

McShay’s pick: Michael Wilson, WR, Stanford

The Packers love a good Day 2 wideout, and Wilson’s ability to get separation on corners and elude them after the catch would be huge for Jordan Love as this offense transitions post Aaron Rodgers (again, assuming a trade happens).

 

79. Indianapolis Colts (from WSH)

Kiper’s pick: Darius Rush, CB, South Carolina

Rush, who ran a blazing 4.36-second 40-yard dash at the combine, gave up a few too many long catches last season, but he has tremendous traits. The Colts traded away Stephon Gilmore in March, opening up snaps at corner.

 

80. Pittsburgh Steelers

McShay’s pick: Daiyan Henley, ILB, Washington State

After Devin Bush didn’t work out in Pittsburgh, the Steelers signed Cole Holcomb in March. But the linebacker depth isn’t great, and Henley has the burst to make plays.

 

81. Detroit Lions

Kiper’s pick: Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Michigan

Schoonmaker might be a little underrated in this deep tight end class. He is solid but not spectacular. With T.J. Hockenson gone, Detroit doesn’t have much in its tight end room. And now we’ve filled all of the Lions’ needs, haven’t we, Todd?

 

82. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

McShay’s pick: Sydney Brown, S, Illinois

I loved the Bucs’ Antoine Winfield Jr. pick on Day 2 in 2020, and I’m looking at a similar player here late on Day 2 three years thereafter to line up next to him. With really good instincts and quicks, Brown is a ball magnet who can make plays against the run and the pass.

 

83. Seattle Seahawks

Kiper’s pick: Garrett Williams, CB, Syracuse

Williams tore an ACL in October, so he hasn’t been able to work out for NFL teams. I love what he showed before his injury, though. He isn’t very big — 5-foot-10 — but this would be an upside play for the Seahawks, who are only looking for rotational corners.

 

84. Miami Dolphins

McShay’s pick: Isaiah Foskey, DE, Notre Dame

It’s a little surprising that Foskey slid this far, as he plays with really good explosion off the edge. And with only four selections, Miami has to nail every one of its picks, and this is good value at this point in Round 3.

 

85. Los Angeles Chargers

Kiper’s pick: Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M

My comp for Achane? Darren Sproles. That’s because Achane has a ton of value as a returner and in the pass game. He needs to hit his ceiling to be as productive as Sproles, of course, but he is my third-ranked back in this class. We know Austin Ekeler has requested a trade, which creates some uncertainty for the Chargers. This would be great insurance.

 

86. Baltimore Ravens

McShay’s pick: Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati

The Ravens haven’t picked since the first round, and Mel went cornerback there. I guess it’s on me to get the Ravens a wideout now. The position is thinning out a little bit, but Scott can be dangerous downfield with his elite second gear.

 

87. Minnesota Vikings

Kiper’s pick: Colby Wooden, DT, Auburn

Wooden is an interesting 3-technique prospect. He had six sacks last season, four of which came when he was lined up as a tackle. NFL teams covet interior players who can contribute on third downs. He is worth a dart throw near the end of Round 3.

 

88. Jacksonville Jaguars

McShay’s pick: Zach Harrison, DE, Ohio State

Harrison didn’t have a ton of sack production in college (12 sacks over four years), but he has a quick first step and can set the edge against the run. And his versatility would be welcome on the Jags’ defensive front.

 

89. New York Giants

Kiper’s pick: Nathaniel Dell, WR, Houston

Dell had 199 catches over the past two seasons, and he was used inside and outside. In fact, 61 of those catches came when “Tank” was aligned wide right, while 60 receptions came when he was in the slot on the left side of the field. That’s versatility. At 5-foot-8, he isn’t big, but he has some ability after the catch. The Giants could add him to their stockpile of pass-catchers.

 

90. Dallas Cowboys

McShay’s pick: Kendre Miller, RB, TCU

Dallas moved on from Ezekiel Elliott, so it is a prime candidate to add a running back on Day 2 to pair with Tony Pollard in the backfield. And Miller has some impressive agility; his tape is filled with elusive jump cuts.

 

91. Buffalo Bills

Kiper’s pick: Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M

I’m surprised Johnson is still on the board. What are we doing, Todd? This is a great pick for Buffalo. Johnson played a ton of nickel corner for the Aggies, and he piled up tackles for them. For the Bills, this is a pick to get some help for their aging safeties.

 

92. Cincinnati Bengals

McShay’s pick: Ji’Ayir Brown, S, Penn State

Cincinnati plugged the Jessie Bates III hole at safety with Nick Scott in free agency, but there are still some question marks at the position on the Bengals’ depth chart. Watch a few minutes of Brown’s tape and you’ll be wowed by his instincts and recognition skills. I think he could move around the defense and contribute as a rookie.

 

93. Carolina Panthers (from SF)

Kiper’s pick: Andre Carter II, DE, Navy

Carter has some stiffness, but he looked like a first-rounder in 2021, when he had 15.5 sacks. Last season? He struggled with more attention from blockers, finishing with three sacks. With a 6-foot-6 frame, he is worth a flier as an edge rusher in Round 3. NFL coaching will really help him blossom.

 

94. Philadelphia Eagles

McShay’s pick: Blake Freeland, OT, BYU

I ended up with all four picks for Philly here, and I’m capping them off with a quick-footed zone blocker who could provide depth for the Eagles’ line and potentially open up some running lanes for new back Bijan Robinson.

 

95. Kansas City Chiefs

Kiper’s pick: Tyler Steen, OT, Alabama

The 6-foot-6 Steen started 45 games for the Crimson Tide, playing both left and right tackle. The Chiefs are relying on some youth along the O-line, and Steen could be the swing tackle as a rookie.

 

96. Arizona Cardinals*

McShay’s pick: Roschon Johnson, RB, Texas

Arizona ranked 20th in yards per rush (4.3) and 27th in runs of 10-plus yards (42) last season. I know, I know. This roster has a lot of issues, but Johnson could put up big numbers for the Cards and give quarterback Kyler Murray more help.

 

97. Washington Commanders*

Kiper’s pick: Zack Kuntz, TE, Old Dominion

At 6-foot-7 and 253 pounds, Kuntz ran a 4.55-second 40-yard dash at the combine, one of the best times from any tight end there. He has a ways to go to become a complete player, though. In Washington, he could sit behind Logan Thomas and use 2023 as a redshirt year.

 

98. Cleveland Browns*

McShay’s pick: Henry To’oTo’o, ILB, Alabama

I like To’oTo’o’s speed at the second level, and I think his range would boost a run defense that got knocked for 4.7 yards per carry last season, eighth worst in the NFL.

 

99. San Francisco 49ers*

Kiper’s pick: Joey Fisher, OT/G, Shepherd

OK, last two picks for me, and they’re both for the 49ers, who have yet to draft a player. Let’s start with Fisher, who was invited to the Senior Bowl but couldn’t practice due to a broken hand. He had an impressive pro day, though, and I think he is likely going to play guard in the NFL. He isn’t ready to compete in 2023, but he has a ton of upside.

 

100. Las Vegas Raiders (from KC/NYG)*

McShay’s pick: Tavius Robinson, OLB, Ole Miss

Chandler Jones is 33 years old, and he didn’t live up to expectations in his first season in Las Vegas, so getting more explosive pass-rushers with versatility wouldn’t be a bad call for the Raiders.

 

101. San Francisco 49ers*

Kiper’s pick: YaYa Diaby, DE, Louisville

I just wrote about Diaby on Monday; he is my 10th-ranked defensive end. He broke out with 9.5 sacks last season. At 6-foot-3 and 263 pounds, he is a little undersized, but he has tools with which to work.

 

102. San Francisco 49ers*

McShay’s pick: Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson

The Niners went from 0 to 60 mph quickly, huh? After sitting out the first 98 picks, they’ve had three selections in a four-pick span. I considered Southern California defensive lineman Tuli Tuipulotu here to close out our three-round mock draft, but San Francisco’s cornerback depth is lacking, and Hodges-Tomlinson has good instincts and ball skills despite a smaller frame.