The Daily Briefing Tuesday, April 25, 2023

THE DAILY BRIEFING

NFC NORTH
 

GREEN BAY

And so the Aaron Rodgers Era in Green Bay is over.  Sam Robinson of Pro Football Rumors lays out the trade package:

After several weeks of negotiations, the Jets and Packers agreed to a deal Monday. Aaron Rodgers is heading to the Big Apple for a picks package that includes first-rounders changing hands, ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter reports (on Twitter).

 

Fifteen years after it took only a conditional third-rounder for the Jets to land Brett Favre, the latest future Hall of Fame Packers QB fetched the NFC North franchise a much bigger haul. Here are the trade terms:

 

Packers receive:

2023 first-round pick (No. 13 overall)

2023 second-round pick (No. 42)

2023 sixth-rounder (No. 207)

2024 conditional second-round pick, which can become a first if Rodgers plays 65% of the Jets’ offensive plays this season

 

Jets receive:

Rodgers

2023 first-round pick (No. 15)

2023 fifth-round pick (No. 170)

 

As part of this trade agreement, NFL.com’s Tom Pelissero reports (via Twitter) Rodgers is expected to sign a revised contract to help the Packers’ cap. As it stands now, a trade would tag the Pack with $40.3MM in dead money. The adjusted contract is expected to keep the trade from becoming official for a bit, and Brian Gutekunst said (via The Athletic’s Matt Schneidman) the deal is not yet final and that he has not yet spoken with Rodgers. But with the terms agreed to, this weeks-long process is near the goal line. The sixth-year Packers GM said the expectation is this will be official before the draft, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets.

 

As it stands now, the Jets will owe Rodgers a $58.3MM bonus this year. It is not known how a restructure would affect the Jets’ cap, but as of now, Rodgers would be set to count barely $15MM on the AFC East team’s 2023 payroll.

 

This represents an interesting trade package for the Packers, as the deal does not contain any protection for the Jets if Rodgers retires after this season. At the very least, Green Bay will receive two additional second-rounders for Rodgers. The Canton-bound QB has played at least 65% of the Packers’ offensive snaps in all but two of his 15 seasons as a starter (excepting 2013 and 2017). That points to the Packers receiving the Jets’ 2024 first-rounder. Although Gutekunst said recently it would not require a first-round pick for the Packers to unload Rodgers, it looks more likely than not this deal will lead to a future first coming back to the Pack.

NFC SOUTH
 

CAROLINA

Has QB WILL LEVIS moved ahead of QB BRYCE WILSON at the top of Carolina’s draft board?  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

The sports books either know more than the rest of us. Or they don’t know jack squat.

 

While quarterback Bryce Young remains the clear favorite to be the first overall pick in the 2023 draft, the odds are moving toward quarterback Will Levis.

 

Already the favorite to be the No. 2 overall pick of the Texans, Levis now sees an increasing chance of the Panthers unexpectedly pivoting to him.

 

At FanDuel, Levis went from 50-1 to 5-1; Young is at -1200. DraftKings has Levis at 7-1, while Young remains at -1600. PointsBet had Levis go from 50-1 to 20-1 to 10-1. BetMGM took down its draft odds.

 

The movement apparently traces to a reddit post that claims Levis is telling friends and family that the Panthers have told him he’ll be the top pick. And so the line movement could be a reaction to a get-rich-quick, crypto-bro response to the news, which would have people putting heavy action on Levis.

 

Whatever happens, it’s an example of the value of inside information, and the potential harm that can be done by misinformation.

 

The good news for the NFL is that the situation adds a little drama to the one pick that most regarded as settled. It still might be, but things are unsettled just enough to make it important to be settled in when the draft gets rolling.

– – –

Surgery for EDGE BRIAN BURNS. Anthony Rizzuti of USA TODAY:

Gifts weren’t the only things wrapped for Brian Burns on his 25th birthday.

 

As announced by the Carolina Panthers on Monday night, the newly-turned 25-year-old pass rusher underwent ankle surgery last Wednesday. Burns is expected to recover in time to participate in training camp with, per the team, “no limitations for the upcoming season.”

 

Burns closed out his second straight Pro Bowl campaign having missed the Panthers’ season finale against the New Orleans Saints with what was designated as an ankle sprain. After continuing to experience soreness in his foot during the team’s recent offseason workout program, Burns went for tests—which revealed a small fracture.

 

Before the foot kept him sidelined, Burns pieced together the most productive year of his pro career. 2022 saw him notch bests in sacks (12.5), combined tackles (63), tackles for a loss (17) and quarterback hits (22).

 

The former 16th overall pick, who is under the fifth-year option for 2023, is in line for a long-term extension with the organization. General manager Scott Fitterer told reporters last month that Burns’ potential deal will be a priority following the 2023 NFL draft—which, of course, is taking place this weekend.

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

We missed it when it happened last week, but in case you did also – the Chiefs have signed veteran QB BLAINE GABBERT to back up QB PATRICK MAHOMES.  Seems like a sensible signing as Gabbert is well used to the role and good people who hopefully could play a bit if pressed into action.

LAS VEGAS

Are the Raiders looking for a cornerback at number 7?  Adam LaRose of Pro Football Rumors:

The Raiders have been mentioned in much of the speculation leading up to this week’s draft. Vegas has frequently been connected to selecting a quarterback with their top pick (seventh overall), but the team’s priorities could be headed in a different direction.

 

The team’s short-term future under center is set with Jimmy Garoppolo in place as a free agent addition. The 31-year-old is only due guaranteed money in 2023 and ’24, however, so it would come as little surprise if the Raiders added his successor in this year’s draft. The No. 7 pick could provide them with the opportunity to land one of the class’ top passers, and general manager Dave Ziegler recently confirmed that Garoppolo’s presence won’t preclude them from spending a premium pick at the position.

 

However, the Raiders are expected to focus on adding a cornerback in the first round, per ESPN’s Todd McShay. This group of prospects offers a number of options at the position, but two are widely considered to be in a tier of their own. Illinois alum Devon Witherspoon and Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez are both likely to be in the top-10 mix, putting them squarely in the Raiders’ range. Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated names the former as a player who has frequently been mentioned as a top candidate should the Raiders elect for a safe pick aimed at boosting their defense.

 

Vegas struggled against the pass in 2022 and recorded only six interceptions, meaning at least one impact addition in the draft (to supplement the relatively minor ones they have made so far in free agency) would come as no surprise. Ben Volin of the Boston Globe also lists CB as the position to watch for at No. 7, while NBC Sports’ Peter King has the Raiders taking Witherspoon in his mock draft.

 

While few around the league would be surprised if Vegas opted for Witherspoon or Gonzalez, they should have a few other high-end defensive options to choose from. One of those could be Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter, who is reportedly atop the Raiders’ draft board after an rocky pre-draft process. Carter is considered a top-10 lock, but he could find himself on the board at the seventh pick especially if a run on quarterbacks take place. That could leave a number of offensive linemen available as well, a position of need for Vegas heading into the draft. The likeliest outcome for their top pick, however, appears to be one which would give them a notable addition in the secondary.

AFC SOUTH
 

TENNESSEE

They say that RB DERRICK HENRY could be yours if you want him.  But the Titans report no offers so far.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Despite some talk this offseason that the Titans might trade running back Derrick Henry, the team says there have been no such discussions.

 

Titans General Manager Ran Carthon said today that the Titans have not received a single trade call from any other team about Henry.

 

Henry is a 29-year-old running back due $10.5 million this season, so it’s not surprising that teams aren’t clamoring to trade for him. Henry has accomplished a lot in his NFL career, but NFL teams recognize that the value of running backs is at an all-time low.

 

This is the final year of Henry’s contract, so it may be his final year in Tennessee, but from all indications the Titans expect him to play out his contract.

AFC EAST
 

NEW YORK JETS

Was acquiring aging QB AARON RODGERS the right move for the Jets in the short term, knowing it is not good in the long term?  Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com:

After months of speculation, Aaron Rodgers has been traded to the New York Jets.

 

It has been nearly three years since Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst used a first-round pick on Jordan Love, a move that seemed to hint at the end of the Hall of Famer’s tenure in Green Bay. Rodgers responded by winning back-to-back MVP awards and signing an extension with the team. Now, after a disappointing season for both Rodgers and the Packers, the two sides have split.

 

It’s easy to understand why the Packers were ready to move on. Love has sat on the bench for most of his first three seasons and has a fifth-year option decision coming due this spring. Rodgers is owed a $58.3 million bonus before the 2023 season and a whopping $108.7 million over the next two years. After he came out of his darkness retreat and announced he wanted to play for the Jets in 2023, the writing was on the wall regarding his relationship with Green Bay.

 

In a situation in which both the Jets and Packers were locked into a deal with no alternatives, it was going to be difficult to negotiate compensation, which is why it took until the days before the draft to get a deal done. The Packers are sending Rodgers and Picks 15 and 170 in this year’s draft to the Jets. In return, the Jets are shipping off Picks 13, 42 and 207 in this draft and a second-rounder in 2024 that could become a first-rounder if Rodgers plays at least 65% of the snaps this season.

 

Tying the jump to a first-rounder on that 2024 pick to roughly playing 12 games as opposed to a more substantial total or some sort of production or win-based measure is a victory for Gutekunst. When I wrote my mock draft of trades column, I included a compensatory selection that rose a round if Rodgers won a playoff game with New York. Making it into a 12th game is a much likelier proposition.

 

It’s difficult to estimate the value of that compensatory pick, given that it’s tied to both the Jets’ performance and the chances of Rodgers playing 65% of the offensive snaps, but let’s try. I would guess Rodgers has a 75% chance of making it to that snap total, and the Jets win about 10 games next season. In that scenario, they would owe Green Bay something like the 22nd pick in a typical draft. Teams typically discount future picks by about a round, so you might instead choose to value this as something more like a 2023 second-rounder. There’s no right answer.

 

If we treat that conditional pick as the 22nd selection with no discount, this would amount to a significant return for the Packers. The Jets would be sending 2,418 points of draft value on the Jimmy Johnson chart to the Packers and getting 1,073 points in return. The difference is 1,345 points, which amounts to pick No. 9 in a typical draft.

 

Is that too much to pay for a 39-year-old quarterback making more than all but one other player in NFL history? The Jets fans who watched Zach Wilson last season might have been willing to take up a collection to help ownership pay for Rodgers. This is a huge swing from New York and general manager Joe Douglas, albeit one in which they hold on to this year’s first-round pick. Emotionally, it’s a move every single Jets fan would have made at the end of last season, and one they’ll be happy with if Rodgers leads the Jets to their first playoff run since 2010.

 

Thinking more soberly about the deal, there are a few arguments to consider. On paper, upgrading from Wilson to Rodgers is an easy consideration. On the field, though, are the Jets likely to realize the sort of return they’re hoping for in making this deal? Let’s take a closer look at three key conversations surrounding the trade.

 

Argument No. 1: The Jets are now a championship contender

If the Jets get the defense we saw for most of 2022, this one probably is true. From Week 3 on, they were dominant. They allowed 1.46 points per possession and a 43.8 QBR, both of which led the league. They ranked second in yards per play and fourth in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed. Plus, Robert Saleh’s defense did all this despite inheriting the fourth-worst average starting field position from the offense and special teams.

 

If you combine that sort of defense with even a competent offense, it usually produces plenty of victories. One way to put that into context is to try to isolate how the Jets performed on offense and what it did to contribute to their victories. ESPN has a stat called win probability added (WPA), which measures how much an offense, defense and/or special teams contributed to its team’s chances of winning.

 

The Jets posted a positive WPA — meaning the offense helped more than it hurt — eight times last season. They went 7-1 in those games, with the lone loss coming against the Lions. If the offense merely showed up, the defense did enough to win. When Wilson & Co. posted subzero win probabilities on offense and detracted from the Jets’ chances of winning, however, they went 0-9.

 

Just 25% of the league’s performances on offense last season resulted in a negative WPA. The Jets had those disaster games more than twice as often. If that seems bad, well, it is: The only teams whose offenses dragged them down more often were the Colts’ (11 times) and the Texans’ (10), both of which seemed to be angling for a high draft pick and a shot at a young quarterback. The Jets were actively trying to win with a young quarterback whom they used the 2021 No. 2 overall pick to acquire!

 

The only time since 2007 in which New York had more than nine of these subzero games was 2020, the year that led the franchise to draft Wilson. If it had just been passable on offense in a couple of more games last season, it likely would have been a playoff team.

 

The Jets haven’t had a starting quarterback post back-to-back above-average seasons by the era-adjusted stats at Pro Football Reference since Ken O’Brien did it in 1990 and 1991, more than 30 years ago. They’ve had just six above-average seasons from their quarterbacks over that timeframe and just one since 2004, when Josh McCown snuck over the bar in 2017.

 

Rodgers offers a significant ceiling for the Jets, but he also raises the floor dramatically. The Packers were above that zero WPA mark in 192 of his 223 regular-season starts, or 86.1% of the time. Once Matt LaFleur arrived in 2019, Rodgers and the Packers were above that mark 58 times in 65 starts (89%). We’ll get to the ceiling, but if Rodgers can keep up his play and Saleh sparks the same output from the defense, this will be a 2023 playoff team on the strength of the quarterback competency upgrade alone.

 

Will the Jets’ defense be as good as it was in 2022?

The Jets wouldn’t make this move unless they thought they were serious contenders in the AFC, so this question is worth discussing. We’ve seen teams recently pull off moves for veterans Davante Adams (Raiders) and Khalil Mack (Bears) when they think they’re close to contending, only for those deals to come up short because the rosters around those flashy acquisitions weren’t as good as they seemed.

 

I’ll start with the positives: There are reasons to think the Jets might be even better on the defensive side of the ball. They struggled to force turnovers during Saleh’s first two seasons at the helm, which is subject to a significant amount of randomness. They ranked 31st in takeaways in 2021 and 29th last season.

 

The offense was a problem during New York’s second-half collapse, but the other issue during that 1-7 finish was the total absence of takeaways. After forcing 14 takeaways through their first nine games, the Jets mustered only two across their final eight. Over the entire season, they forced 19 fumbles on defense but recovered only four. Forcing fumbles is a skill, but what happens once the ball hits the turf is random. They should recover more of those fumbles in 2023 and force more takeaways as a result.

 

The Jets also return the vast majority of their key contributors. Outside of Lamarcus Joyner, the top 10 players on their 2022 defense by snap count are all set to return. Gang Green was a league-average defense in terms of age last season, but many of their best players are either on their rookie deals or just beyond. It wouldn’t be a surprise if cornerback Sauce Gardner and defensive end Jermaine Johnson improved in Year 2.

 

On the other hand, while those players are returning, there’s no guarantee the Jets will have them around quite as often. Per Football Outsiders’ adjusted games lost statistic, New York had the league’s healthiest defense, one year after being the fourth-most-injured D. Teamwide health isn’t predictable or sustainable, so the most realistic expectation for the Jets would be to project an average amount of health. Obviously, trading for Rodgers comes at the expense of adding more depth on that side of the ball.

 

The Jets might also be subject to what Bill James called the Plexiglass Principle, in which teams that make major strides in one way or another often give back some of those improvements the following season. Buoyed in part by its health, New York jumped all the way from 32nd to fifth in defensive DVOA. Teams that make those kinds of leaps typically drop back the following season.

 

One recent example is the Commanders, who jumped from 27th to third in defensive DVOA in 2020 before falling back to 27th the following season. Just as Jets fans would point to their exciting young core on defense, Washington fans could have pointed to a defensive line that included stars Chase Young, Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen. The Commanders still declined, in part because Young tore an ACL.

 

If that seems too abstract, one other factor to consider is much more traditional. The Jets benefited from plenty of exposure to second- and third-string quarterbacks a year ago. During their 7-4 start, they played five games against quarterbacks who weren’t their team’s preferred starter when everybody was healthy and available. They won all five, beating Jacoby Brissett, Mitch Trubisky, Teddy Bridgewater (who was injured after one attempt and replaced by Skylar Thompson), Brett Rypien and Trevor Siemian.

 

Guess what happened during that six-game losing streak to end the season? The Jets stopped seeing backup quarterbacks. The only backup they faced over the final stretch was in Week 18, when Thompson threw for 152 yards on 31 attempts in an 11-6 Dolphins victory that shouldn’t be watched by anybody under any circumstances. They finished 5-1 against backup quarterbacks and an underwhelming 2-9 against starters. Every team typically faces a backup or two as the year goes along, but I wouldn’t count on New York getting six games against second- and third-stringers again.

 

If the defense isn’t as good as it was in 2022 for any of those reasons, the Jets could still make major strides next season. It will just require more from the offense. We have a good idea of what Rodgers could bring, which is something this fan base isn’t used to.

 

Argument No. 2: Trading for Rodgers heals a psychic pain

Every team can have a lean year or two, but what about a half-century? In 1972, 29-year-old Joe Namath led the league in passing yards and touchdowns as part of the NFL’s second-best scoring offense. If you were a young person who became a Jets fan over the prior decade, you had been treated to a championship, one of the greatest upsets in the history of professional sports and stellar play from your quarterback. You probably felt like you had made the right choice, right?

 

Four of The Associated Press’ 75 voters chose Namath as their MVP in 1972, placing Namath third that season. Since then, not a single Jets player has garnered a single AP MVP vote. I’m not talking about winning an award; no Jets player has received a single vote from any AP voter in any race over the past 50 years.

 

Jets players are 0-for-several thousand. Every other NFL franchise besides the Jaguars has had an NFL player receive at least one MVP vote since 1972, and the Jags only came into existence in 1995. Unlike the Jaguars, the Jets play in the biggest media market in America, one in which the Giants have had five different players take home at least one vote over that time frame.

 

Gang Green has enjoyed a few superstars over that period, but they’ve almost all been either defensive players (Darrelle Revis, Mark Gastineau, Mo Lewis) or offensive linemen (Joe Fields, Dan Alexander, Nick Mangold). Running back Curtis Martin is one of the few exceptions, but even the future Hall of Famer wasn’t able to muster a single MVP vote. With two Offensive Player of the Year votes in 2004, Martin garnered exactly half of the OPOY votes the Jets received over the past half-century, with Ken O’Brien taking home one of 75 votes in 1986 and Vinny Testaverde adding one in 1998.

 

All of this is to say that if you became a Jets fan after Namath’s peak, there have not been many moments in your life where you woke up, thought about your team and felt like you had a quarterback who could win the MVP award. Maybe you felt that way about Testaverde in 1999, but he tore his left Achilles in Week 1. Chad Pennington didn’t even make it to the opener after his lofty 2002 season before suffering a wrist injury and subsequently tearing his rotator cuff, altering his career in the process.

 

If there has ever been a moment in which Jets fans could wake up and feel like they had a true MVP candidate, it was in 2008. Their quarterback that year was the 39-year-old they had just acquired from the Packers, Brett Favre, who had finished second in the MVP race the prior season, albeit with one vote to Tom Brady’s 49. Favre had won three MVP awards a decade before arriving in New York, but he had received votes in six different seasons.

 

Favre got off to a hot start with the Jets, only for a torn biceps in his throwing arm that led to a 1-4 collapse at the end of his lone season in New York. He would retire and unretire again and then move onto the Vikings, where he claimed MVP votes for the seventh time before declining and retiring for good (I think).

 

Now, in acquiring another 39-year-old quarterback from the Packers, Jets fans have another quarterback who could viably win MVP. Rodgers has four awards on his mantel, including back-to-back victories in 2020 and 2021. The Jets simply have not had a quarterback with a recent résumé as impressive as Rodgers since Namath, who played his last game for the team during the Ford administration.

 

From this lens, trading for Rodgers is about something more than the 2023 Jets. It’s about giving hope to a fan base that has been forced to watch mostly disastrous quarterback play since the disco era. General manager Joe Douglas & Co. haven’t been part of this organization for the vast majority of that run, but by trading for Rodgers, New York suddenly has its best shot in 50 years of having a quarterback compete with anybody else in football at his position. How many first-round picks is that worth? What would the Jets pay for a sure thing?

 

Undoubtedly a lot, but there’s another question also worth asking:

 

What if Rodgers is more like the guy from 2022 than the MVP winner of 2020 and 2021?

As good as Rodgers was during those back-to-back MVP campaigns, last season wasn’t just a fall back to the rest of the league’s top quarterbacks. It was a drop to league average. He ranked 26th in Total QBR, finishing just ahead of Russell Wilson, whose disastrous debut season in Denver was enough to cost coach Nathaniel Hackett his job. The now-Jets offensive coordinator was with Rodgers in 2020 and 2021, when he led the league in QBR.

 

Rodgers’ numbers mostly declined across the board, but the most notable change came in the one element of the game in which he has been truly historic over the past few years. After throwing just 15 interceptions across his prior four seasons of football, Rodgers threw 12 picks in 2022. He fumbled eight times after averaging just over four fumbles per year between 2018 and 2021. Those numbers aren’t in themselves a problem, but nobody has been better at protecting the ball in recent years than Rodgers. If that skill went away and it’s not coming back, he is a less appealing option.

 

Interception rates can fluctuate from year to year for even the best quarterbacks, but Rodgers’ ability to keep interception rates low was remarkable. Some of what we saw in 2022 was more in the vein of bad luck. He had two passes tipped at the line before being picked, while a third was tipped high into the air (after Rodgers escaped a free rusher up the A-gap) by Darius Slay, with the ball eventually landing in Josiah Scott’s hands. In a lucky season, maybe those passes fall harmlessly to the ground incomplete. In an unlucky season, well, stuff like that happens.

 

Rodgers didn’t seem to get much help from his receivers, who dropped passes at the second-highest rate of any group. It often felt like he was on different pages from his playmakers, and while you might expect that to be a problem with the rookies, Allen Lazard seemed to either run the wrong route, make the wrong adjustment or stop running altogether on a number of Rodgers’ interceptions a year ago.

 

The Packers left too much meat on the bone offensively last season. Between 2020 and 2021, when Rodgers would find a receiver with at least three yards of separation, the results were deadly for opposing defenses. He threw 33 touchdown passes without an interception, averaged 9.0 yards per attempt and posted a passer rating of 125.0. So many of those throws were a product of Davante Adams breaking down opposing coverage, but Rodgers took advantage of those moments to create chunk plays.

 

Without Adams last season, while Rodgers had about as many throws to open receivers per game as he’d had over the prior two seasons, the efficiency of those throws dissipated. He averaged just 7.1 yards per attempt on throws to open wideouts when the league averaged 8.5. He threw six touchdown passes against three picks on these passes and posted a passer rating of 99, more than 10 points below the league average. Some of those missing big plays were drops, but others were poorly thrown passes, like the would-be touchdown to David Bakhtiari against the Lions where Rodgers underthrew a leak concept to his open left tackle.

 

Rodgers should have better receivers in New York. Lazard joined the team in free agency, but he won’t be miscast as the team’s primary wideout again. Garrett Wilson was more impressive as a rookie than either Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs despite playing with an underwhelming cast of quarterbacks. Corey Davis has been a free-agent bust since signing a big deal in 2021; he’s two years removed from a big season with the Titans but likely will be in an offense closer to the one he excelled with in Nashville. The Jets have a pair of useful tight ends and promising running back Breece Hall. There’s a lot to like on paper.

 

At the same time, there’s going to be an adjustment period between Rodgers and his young receivers, something Kalyn Kahler documented for The Athletic last season. Davis might be cut to create cap space. Braxton Berrios, who had been effective in the slot as the team’s fourth option, was released and signed by the Dolphins. Adams didn’t break out as a superstar until his fifth season with Rodgers. It would be a lot to ask of Wilson to turn into the new Adams.

 

Injuries are also a concern. Hall is coming off a torn ACL, while emerging star guard Alijah Vera-Tucker is recovering from a torn triceps. Both had their seasons ended prematurely. Mekhi Becton, who looked like a franchise left tackle as a rookie in 2020, has played one game in two seasons because of ankle and knee issues and fell out of favor with the current regime. George Fant, who impressed in Becton’s absence in 2021, wasn’t as effective last season and is a free agent. If all the pieces fall into place, as they did for Tom Brady when he joined the Bucs, this could work out wonderfully. As we saw with Favre’s arrival in New York, things don’t always go as smoothly.

 

Rodgers will get to work with a familiar face at offensive coordinator in Hackett, but it’s fair to wonder what this offense will look like and whether Hackett’s capable of being the lead person in gameplanning on a week-to-week basis. His offense in Denver never found solutions for Wilson and didn’t get better as the year went along. His offenses in Buffalo and Jacksonville under the auspices of Doug Marrone were middling to awful. Hackett enjoyed plenty of success in Green Bay, but he wasn’t the lead playcaller or designer — that role fell to coach Matt LaFleur. Rodgers’ legacy is secure, but if Hackett can’t make it work with his old pal, it’s tough to see him getting another gig as a coordinator.

 

Argument No. 3: Both sides had no other options

No team wants to make a franchise-altering trade because it’s the only one left at the table, but it’s fair to suggest the Jets and Packers had to make this trade because neither side had a realistic alternative.

 

For the Jets, it was clear they needed some escape route from the Zach Wilson era, which had grown to be untenable before the end of his second season. Things typically don’t go this poorly; the last top-three pick at quarterback whose situation grew this dire so quickly was probably Cincinnati’s Akili Smith, who lost his starting job to Jon Kitna after Year 2. Even Smith got to spend two more seasons on the Bengals, although he started two games after his second season and didn’t take another regular-season snap after being released in 2003.

 

Who were the alternatives? The Jets were set to have the No. 13 overall pick and likely weren’t in position to land a quarterback without a significant move up the draft board. Even then, the same organization that just struck out on top-three picks Wilson and Sam Darnold might understandably have had cold feet about entrusting its playoff chances to another rookie passer. I don’t think that was a viable solution.

 

What about the veterans? Daniel Jones and Geno Smith re-signed with their respective franchises. Tom Brady retired. Jimmy Garoppolo made sense, especially when fellow former 49ers employee Mike LaFleur was still offensive coordinator, but the Jets parted ways with LaFleur after the season. Garoppolo, who had an established relationship with Josh McDaniels in New England, might always have been going to the Raiders from the moment they moved on from Derek Carr.

 

Carr visited the Jets, who reportedly told the longtime Raiders starter that he could become a first-ballot Hall of Famer in New York. Whether it was because he preferred New Orleans or because the Jets were dragging their feet on Rodgers, Carr chose to pass up his trip to Canton to join the Saints.

 

Bridge options such as Jacoby Brissett, Baker Mayfield, Marcus Mariota, and Andy Dalton signed elsewhere in the early days of free agency. Teddy Bridgewater is still a free agent, as is plummeting former No. 2 overall pick Carson Wentz, but neither would be the sort of upgrade the Jets could count on as a 17-game starter in 2023, let alone as their quarterback of the future.

 

The trade market wasn’t deep, either. The 49ers don’t seem desperate to trade Trey Lance. The Titans don’t seem like they’re about to trade Ryan Tannehill, even as they rebuild (unless they draft a quarterback). Matthew Stafford could plausibly have been on the market as the Rams rebuild, but it’s tough to believe the Jets would be willing to guarantee him $68.5 million over the next two seasons given Stafford’s recent injury history. It also would have been exceedingly tough for the Rams to eat $48 million in dead money on their 2023 cap.

 

So, that leaves Rodgers and Lamar Jackson. It’s true Jackson is younger, which makes a better case for trading to get his rights. Given the modest gap between what the Jets paid for Rodgers and what they would need to give to the Ravens as compensation for an offer sheet, it’s fair to wonder whether the Jets might have been better off sending a little more to land a player who can be their quarterback for the next decade.

 

The big difference, of course, was probably availability: The Packers were eager to trade Rodgers, while the Ravens still have the right to match any offer for Jackson. There’s no guarantee the Jets would have landed Jackson, even if they had been willing to send two first-round picks to Baltimore. Attempting to sign Jackson before settling for Rodgers might have bruised the Packers legend’s ego before he ever stepped foot in New York.

 

For the Packers, meanwhile, getting Rodgers off the books was clearly an offseason project. Team president Mark Murphy talked about Rodgers’ Packers career as something from the past. Green Bay has been waiting to hear about Rodgers’ decision so it could solve it cap issues, which aren’t aided in the short term by a Rodgers trade: The Packers will owe more than $40 million in dead money on their 2023 cap, up from $31.6 million if Rodgers had stayed and continued playing for the team.

 

If Rodgers wasn’t going to the Jets, though, where was he heading? His destination needed to be a team that had the potential to win now with a major upgrade at quarterback and both the cap space and cash to deal for a quarterback who will make nearly $109 million over the next two years. NFL teams print money in the big picture, but there are teams that simply don’t have that sort of cash on hand to trade for a quarterback, let alone the cap space needed.

 

What did that market look like? The Dolphins moved forward with Tua Tagovailoa. The Giants kept Jones, and the Seahawks retained Smith. The Titans decided to rebuild. The Raiders signed Jimmy Garoppolo. The Panthers traded for the No. 1 overall pick. The 49ers weren’t a fit for cap reasons.

 

There were really only two teams that made sense for Rodgers. One was the Commanders, whose defense ranked third in points per possession allowed from Week 3 on. In many ways, they were a less inspiring or realistic option. They play in the NFC, and the Packers preferred to deal Rodgers outside the conference.

 

Team owners Dan and Tanya Snyder are near a deal to sell the Commanders, a situation in which organizations typically don’t take on huge expenses in order to avoid saddling the new owner with a significant debt. The Snyders are about to make billions of dollars, but they probably don’t want to pay a $58.3 million bonus for a quarterback who will be playing for someone else’s franchise in a few months.

 

The other option was the Jets, and that’s where Rodgers ended up.

 

What’s next for the other Packers and Jets quarterbacks?

Let’s finish by discussing the two young quarterbacks impacted by this trade. For Jordan Love, a path is clear to a starting role in Green Bay. The only other quarterback on the roster is Danny Etling, so Love won’t have much competition in camp. The Packers will now pick up Love’s fifth-year option for 2024, so he should have at least two years to prove himself after throwing just 83 passes over the past two seasons.

 

Love is an unknown quantity. He has made one career start, a game against the Chiefs in 2021 where the 24-year-old filled in for Rodgers after the veteran contracted COVID-19. Love went 19-of-34 for 190 yards in a game in which the Packers scored seven points. His numbers were better in mop-up duty in 2022, but most of that came from a 63-yard touchdown pass to Christian Watson where the young wideout generated 53 yards after catch.

 

All we really know is the Packers continue to see him as their quarterback of the future. Of course, Rodgers was once in the same boat, as he took over for Favre after just 59 pass attempts across his first three seasons. He was impressive enough in his debut season as the starter in 2008 to sign a contract extension during Green Bay’s Week 8 bye. The Packers will now hope for a similarly spectacular start from Rodgers’ replacement.

 

By moving up two spots in the first round and adding a second-round pick, the Packers jump ahead of the Patriots, who are likely to consider a left tackle with their selection. Current blindside protector David Bakhtiari has two years left on his deal and has missed 27 games over the past two seasons with injuries. This is a deep class for tight ends, and while No. 13 is probably too early for one, the Packers can use their additional second-rounder to either take a tight end or move up to grab their preferred option at the end of the first round.

 

As for the Jets, this likely draws an end to the Zach Wilson era. Gang Green needs a backup for Rodgers — Tim Boyle and Chris Streveler are the other quarterbacks on the depth chart — but while the organization’s decision-makers have talked about Wilson as a future starter, it would be a surprise if the 23-year-old was more than a fill-in for Rodgers this season. The Jets will have to decide on his fifth-year option after the season, a deal they will surely decline barring one of the most stunning turnarounds in NFL history.

 

There will be interest in Wilson as a reclamation project, but not much. He is owed $9.3 million guaranteed over the next two years, which is more than teams typically want to pay for a quarterback who is essentially starting over. Wilson’s penchant for the spectacular in college (and in spare moments as a pro) hints at untapped upside, but the Jets were unable to unlock any semblance of consistency from the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 draft.

 

If the Jets are willing to eat a few million dollars, they could recoup a late-round pick for Wilson from another team. The Chiefs come to mind as a team that might be willing to see if it can turn around Wilson’s career under the right circumstances as a backup to Patrick Mahomes, although not at that $9.3 million price tag. It might be easier to do a deal after 2023, when there will be only one year left on Wilson’s deal.

 

Even by Jets standards, the decision to draft Wilson looks like a disaster. They passed up Justin Fields and Mac Jones, passers who have shown much more as a pro, to take Wilson. Stars at other positions — Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and Pat Surtain — also came off the board in the top 10. The Jets surely could have made the same trade the Dolphins made with the 49ers and dealt away their pick for three first-rounders. All of that is a sunk cost now.

 

Now, the Rodgers era begins in New York. The Jets have gone more than a decade without a playoff win and a half-century without an MVP vote, but the bar has to be higher when they trade what amounts to a top-10 pick for a 39-year-old quarterback. Anything short of a Super Bowl appearance would be a disappointment over the next two seasons.

 

THIS AND THAT

 

C.J. STROUD

In the wake of QB C.J. STROUD’s horrible S2 score, Bruce Feldman of The Athletic talks to a bunch of confused evaluators:

Has Stroud’s stock really taken a hit?

“I’ll be honest, I had Stroud ahead of (Bryce) Young,” said one veteran NFL QB coach whose team isn’t in the market to take a quarterback high in this draft. “But then I dug into some other things and put Young ahead of him.”

 

The coach said Stroud checked all the boxes he likes to see from a first-round QB: “He’s got mobility and size; (he) can make all the throws and he throws with timing (and) anticipation.” All of those things shined in his film.

 

The coach dismissed some of the skepticism of people who ding Stroud because the program he’s come out of at Ohio State, despite all of its success, hasn’t produced a top-level NFL quarterback in generations. Perhaps Justin Fields will become that, but it’s much too soon to tell.

 

“I think people have some concerns over what those guys from that school have done the past few years,” he explained. “But I don’t think you can do that to the player. I don’t think that’s fair.”

 

Stroud’s stock, though — at least as reflected in media circles — has taken a hit as word has surfaced over his reportedly low score in the S2 Cognition Test. S2 researchers last year studied the scores of 117 quarterbacks who had taken the test through the 2022 draft and charted the data. According to the company, the S2 Eval for quarterbacks examines nine different cognitive skills: Perception Speed, Search Efficiency, Tracking Capacity, Visual Learning, Instinctive Learning, Decision Complexity, Distraction Control, Impulse Control, and Improvisation.

 

That veteran coach said he’s become a believer in the S2, but added that, in his view, there are four categories that really matter, and the overall score doesn’t mean anything.

 

“To me, that’s what flipped me (to put Young ahead of Stroud). When I saw that S2, it was brutal,” he told The Athletic. “That’s scary. Now listen, if we were in that position, I’d get him to re-take that test. Sometimes that happens. Guy gets a false read on a test, but I do believe in S2 and … well, if I believe in it and you’ve got plenty of evidence from looking at the scores and the players that you’ve coached, you can’t discount it or deny it.”

 

A second NFL QB coach, a younger one whose team also isn’t likely to take a QB high this year, acknowledged that he’s “been staring at that (Stroud S2) for a while. But I wouldn’t say there’s a direct correlation because if there was everybody would be picking off that.”

 

Is this just the latest round of ‘NFL Draft Dinging’?

QB coach 2 said he was really impressed with Stroud from meeting with him and dismissed the blowback that suddenly has come Stroud’s way.

 

“It’s every f—— year,” he said. “Heck, it was (Will) Levis a month ago, and now it’s Stroud. I don’t care. I had a great interview with him. On the board and talking to him, he did a great job. He was aware of the stigma about past Ohio State quarterbacks. I was like, ‘Dude, you just threw 41 touchdowns. You’re good. You don’t have to sell me. I just want to get to know you as a dude.’

 

“The only reservation that I would have that would keep me up is C.J.’s receiving corps (at Ohio State) that’s gonna be the best he ever has for the rest of his life. Garrett Wilson, (Chris) Olave, (Marvin) Harrison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. You’re lucky to have one guy like that. Best case two. He had four or five like that! Yeah, his game tape is NFL concepts and big boy throws but well, s—, I would have conviction too ripping this ball if Marvin Harrison Jr. is out there. This could be the best version of him as well. I think if Aidan O’Connell from Purdue was at Ohio State, I think he would’ve thrown for 40 touchdowns, to be honest.”

 

A third NFL quarterback coach, another younger one and whose team could be in the market to take a QB in the first round, echoed something similar. “I feel like every year now they pick one guy to drag through the mud at the end, and now it’s C.J. Where it this coming from? … When you meet him, he’s very nice, very humble. A lot of stuff analytically that has come out is not good, but I think we’re still early in this S2 stuff. Is there really enough data? The total score is not important. A good overall score doesn’t mean they scored high in what’s important.”

 

QB coach 3 cited two QBs drafted in the top five in the last decade that have had some success but disappointing careers to this point plagued largely by poor decision-making and lots of turnovers that “scored terribly.” Joe Burrow did great on S2 and is a franchise quarterback. Mac Jones did very well also, but the jury’s still out on his NFL prospects. Teddy Bridgewater is another one who scored really well on S2, the coach said. “He’s not physically great, but (the cognition test) probably shows why he’s a great backup.”

 

QB coach 3 is perplexed by Stroud’s S2 results. “I know when I watch him that (low S2 score) doesn’t make sense. I was shocked when I heard he bombed it. Did he not try? He didn’t throw many picks. He didn’t have a lot of really bad split-second decisions. I just didn’t see it. He’s great going through his progressions.”

 

Asked if he thinks a lot of people high up in the NFL put a lot of stock in S2, the third QB coach said. “Houston not taking C.J. (at No. 2) would be interesting. Are they really putting that much stock in S2 or, do they care that Dave Mulugheta is his agent because that’s Deshaun (Watson)’s agent, and they despise his agent?

 

“I know this: C.J.’s film is really good. I just wish I saw what I saw against Georgia at least one more time, in terms of his play extension. But it’s not his fault that they’re better than everybody and he wasn’t forced to do that. I know he’s capable of it. It’s in there.”

 

 

BRYCE YOUNG

Pete Thamel of ESPN.com looks at QB BRYCE YOUNG through the eyes of college coaches who tried to stop him (among others):

Arkansas defensive coordinator Barry Odom came out of the locker room in Tuscaloosa in November 2021 to get a peek at Bryce Young, Alabama’s undersized wunderkind quarterback, in pregame warmups.

 

Young’s stirring sophomore season put him atop the Heisman Trophy race and defied football conventions, and Odom couldn’t help wanting to catch a field-level glimpse of the sport’s breakout star. Alabama listed Young at 6-foot, 194 pounds, but everyone knew those numbers meant he was essentially stepping on a phone book and his weight was artificially padded by a few slabs of Tuscaloosa’s famous Dreamland ribs.

 

In the chill of the early afternoon, Odom quickly understood the scope of his challenge. As so often happened in a decorated high school and college career, Young’s arm talent overshadowed his modest size.

 

“He’s got this quick release and the ball explodes off his hand,” said Odom, who is now UNLV’s head coach. “He’s making every throw across the field in warmups. I knew at that point it was probably going to be a long night.”

 

Young majored in delivering opponents long nights in his two seasons as a starter at Alabama, where he went 23-4. That afternoon against Odom’s defense, he delivered five touchdown passes and no interceptions on his way to winning the Heisman.

 

In 2022, he threw for 32 touchdowns and just five interceptions while playing with a drastically inferior receiving corps. In just two seasons as a starter, he’s the second-leading passer in Alabama history (8,356 yards).

 

As the NFL draft kicks off Thursday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC/ESPN app), that caliber of consistent production has made Young the prohibitive favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick. At 5-foot-10, he’d be just the third quarterback in the common draft era shorter than 6 feet to be picked in the first round, joining Kyler Murray and Johnny Manziel.

 

Searching NFL combine data back to 1999, Young would also be the lightest quarterback taken in the first round. Young weighed in at 204 at the combine, and the list of quarterbacks weighing less includes a flurry of forgettable names like Aaron Brooks (203), Trace McSorley (202) and Seneca Wallace (196).

 

That’s the compelling conundrum ultimately facing the Carolina Panthers at No. 1 — can they use a treasured piece of draft real estate on a player whose size makes him an exception? Young looms as an anomaly even among the smaller quarterbacks, as he’s a pure pocket passer. Just 12% of his passes in college came outside of the pocket, per ESPN Stats & Information.

 

“If you pick him, you are saying that he’s the outlier in the history of the league,” said a veteran NFL executive. “Kyler Murray was that size, but a little sturdier built and ran low 4.4s. [Young is] an awesome player and awesome kid, but you are saying that the guy is the one outlier in the history of the league.”

 

The NFL draft industry through the years has been built on paradigms — height, weight, speed. Those archetypes have existed for decades, serving as guidelines and guardrails for franchises looking to avoid mistakes.

 

The case for Young has been made through a trail of flummoxed defensive coordinators and admiring head coaches who watched him thrive across the sideline. And it leaves one of the most fascinating draft questions of the past generation: Can Bryce Young be the exception?

 

When Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea game-planned for Young in September, he didn’t once consider his size in the equation of how to attempt to stop him.

 

“It’s the skill set that offsets the size,” Lea said. “When you’re out there on the field with him, you don’t look at him and say, ‘He’s small.’ He plays bigger than that. It’s a compliment to his competitive mindset and stature on the field.

 

“Size matters if you can take throw lanes away. His skills give him the ability to extend plays and step up and find windows to make throws.”

 

Young’s 79 touchdowns in two seasons at Alabama rank as the most in the SEC over a two-year period. He missed just one game — against Texas A&M in 2022 with a shoulder injury — and flashed the physical and mental skills that have the NFL intrigued and left a trail of hapless defenders in his wake.

 

In speaking with a half-dozen coaches last week who faced Young, the two traits that came up the most were his innate feel in the pocket and his ability to diagnose defenses and dissect them accordingly.

 

The play that perhaps defined his elite instincts came in a comeback win at Texas in September, when Young pulled off a Houdini act that resonated as one of the most impressive of the season. Texas defensive back Ryan Watts streaked into the Alabama backfield unblocked and Young ducked so low at the last possible second to avoid Watts that his facemask nearly scraped the ground.

 

He then scrambled 20 yards to the 17-yard-line to set up the a game-winning 33-yard field goal three plays later.

 

“It’s like tag, he’s the fastest thing out there and no one can touch him,” said former Auburn coach Bryan Harsin. “He can make guys miss and move out of the way. That play against Texas was something you see in a movie, like ‘The Matrix,’ then he’s running for it.

 

“His pocket awareness is maybe one of the best I’ve seen in college. He’ll stand back there. He’ll know nothing is open, he buys some time and someone is going to get open for him.”

 

Harsin coached Kellen Moore at Boise State — 6-foot and 197 at the NFL combine in 2012 — for four seasons as the quarterback coach and offensive coordinator for the Broncos. Moore finished his career at Boise 50-3 as a starter and remains the winningest quarterback in college football history.

 

Through that historic run, Harsin said he and former Boise coach Chris Petersen realized the proliferation of the shotgun in college football — and more recently in the NFL with 63% of regular-season snaps in the gun in 2022 — has become an equalizer for shorter quarterbacks. That’s why Harsin said he’d have laughed off any notion by a defensive coach at Auburn that they could exploit Young’s size.

 

Harsin coached against Young only once during his two-year Auburn tenure, but he’s long been a card-carrying member of his admiration society. Harsin took his son, Davis, to the 2019 high school clash between Young’s Mater Dei team and D.J. Uiagalelei’s St. John Bosco club.

 

Harsin wanted to give his son, now a three-star quarterback recruit, a glimpse of big-time prep football. He couldn’t have imagined that two years later, Young would lead one of his trademark comebacks against Auburn with a 97-yard game-tying drive, enabling Alabama to win in four overtimes.

 

The next day, when watching the film and removing the emotion, Harsin could only admire what Young pulled off.

 

“When you pull back, from a pure quarterback standpoint, it was impressive,” Harsin said. “I’m watching it the next day saying, ‘That dude is a Heisman Trophy winner.'”

 

Young’s final collegiate Houdini act didn’t come with a late drive. He decided to play in the Allstate Sugar Bowl against Kansas State, defying the opt-out trend for top prospects not in the CFP, and fileted Kansas State for five touchdowns and 321 yards.

 

Wildcats coach Chris Klieman still doesn’t know how star Wildcats corner Julius Brents, a potential first-round pick himself this week, didn’t intercept a ball that Young deftly dropped 32 yards to Ja’Corey Brooks on the back pylon of the end zone.

 

“Just as far as the football acumen and the accuracy, I didn’t think there was a better quarterback this year,” Klieman said. “That was the best kid we played, by far. How he read defenses, putting the ball in windows and spots.

 

“He was totally in control of everything.”

 

Young now enters a phase of his career he can’t control. The variables of success for a quarterback transitioning to the NFL start in the front office, filter down to the coaching staff and are rooted in the system. There’s also franchise patience pitted against fan pressure and the inevitability of enduring a few years with an inferior roster.

 

What’s certain is that a franchise will need to mold its roster and system to accommodate Young. Scouts and NFL personnel insist that begins with scheme and extends to putting together logical roster pieces.

 

Drafting Young comes with an acknowledgement that he won’t grow, but his height is less of an issue than his slender frame. There have been comparisons to Russell Wilson, who also weighed 204 pounds at the combine. But Young is simply not as thickly built as Wilson — he will likely play at around 205 pounds in the NFL, while Wilson is listed at 215 in Denver.

 

“I’ve been this size, respectfully, my whole life,” Young said. “I know who I am. I know what I can do. For me, [the concerns are] fair. Everyone can speculate and ask when the questions are necessary. I’m going to continue to control what I can control.”

 

One NFL executive told ESPN that whoever drafts Young will need to “build a Great Wall” in front of him. That includes thick interior linemen but not necessarily tall ones. And they’d be flanked by bigger tackles.

 

“You need to keep the pocket firm and clear,” the executive said. “You don’t want 6-foot-5 guys across the board. That’d be hard for him.”

 

Bill O’Brien, the former Alabama offensive coordinator who was hired to the same position by the New England Patriots this offseason, was a relentless advocate of Young’s to scouts. The Crimson Tide are one of the most open programs in the country for scouts, and multiple scouts told ESPN O’Brien recommended Young with vigor.

 

“The size doesn’t matter when you process the game quickly,” one scout said. “The notion of him getting balls batted down, that will only happen if he’s holding the ball and not making quick decisions.”

 

The case for Young thriving in the NFL comes from Drew Brees, who is two inches taller at 6-foot and weighed nine more pounds at the combine (213).

 

A scout said Young will likely have to operate almost exclusively from the shotgun, which is in line with how NFL offenses have evolved.

 

“He’s really Drew Brees,” the scout said. “The size doesn’t matter. He’s a pocket passer with movement skills. You’re not playing under center, you have to change your offense, as it’s going to be harder for him to get back in 3-step, 5-step and 7-step drops and still see over defenses.”

 

One of the most intriguing parts of this draft is there’s no consensus on the top quarterback. Some scouts are enamored with Anthony Richardson’s traits, others with C.J. Stroud’s production and some love the physical tools of Will Levis.

 

One veteran scout summed up his Young skepticism by pointing out he may have relied too much on his improvisational ability: “His style is very much a playground dropback that accentuates his instincts. It’s hard to see him translating to a system that relies on quick game. I don’t think he’s elite at anticipating with timing early in the play. He’s more adept running around and then making a play with his arm talent.”

 

It’s expected the Panthers are going to make a big bet on Young’s size not mattering. There’s a trail of college coaches who became believers after seeing Young’s magic up close. Will he break NFL paradigms and convert more skeptics?

 

“Over the years I’ve defended a lot of first-round quarterbacks,” Lea said. “Bryce definitely stands out as a player who is elite among those first-rounders. He’ll be scrutinized left and right, but what I witnessed on the field was an ability to dominate the game and play to his strengths, and that maybe limits the weaknesses.”

 

2023 DRAFT

Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com tells us what the NFL’s GMs should do, but won’t because they don’t know as much as Pete Prisco:

When Josh Allen came out of Wyoming, he was brutalized by the Twitter draft cult, who viewed him as a wildly inaccurate quarterback who couldn’t become a quality NFL starter.  That hate carried over to his early days with the Buffalo Bills, with many hoping to validate their pre-draft analysis.

 

They were wrong. Allen is now a star quarterback.

 

I bring the Allen story up because it’s relevant today as the same scenario is playing out for Kentucky quarterback Will Levis. He has taken a beating in the pre-draft process in terms of the draft cult. But the reality is NFL people like Levis a lot more than they’ve led on.

 

So do I.

 

Levis is my top-ranked quarterback in this class. Alabama’s Bryce Young is the best right now, but I just couldn’t draft a quarterback that small first overall. So for this what-they-should-do mock, I have the Carolina Panthers taking Levis first overall.

 

Go ahead, kill me like you’ve blistered Levis and back in the day blistered Allen, who I loved.

 

In 2021, when watching the star-studded Georgia defense on tape, I saw Levis have an impressive game against them while getting beat up. He kept getting up, hit after hit, and made some impressive throws.

 

He also had Kentucky in the top 10 that year. Think about that. Kentucky?

 

Fast forward to last season. Levis didn’t play as well as expected. There were reasons. He had a terrible new offense with a coordinator who was fired after one year. He had a bad line, no receivers and he played hurt the entire season, taking pain injections for a variety of injuries that probably should have kept him on the sidelines.

 

So the projected jump in his play didn’t happen. But a closer look at the reasons why show how understandable it was that it happened. Levis didn’t have a chance.

 

That isn’t to say he doesn’t have flaws. He does. He sometimes locks on too long to his receivers and needs to speed up the processing. But I still think a lot of that has to do with the offensive scheme from last season as well as the many shots he took while playing injured.

 

When Allen came out of Wyoming, his completion percentage was the crux of the hate. He had a 56.2 career completion percentage, which is bad. But the tape showed many passes being dropped because of his powerful arm and some bad throws because of mechanics that needed fixing, which he did in the NFL.

 

Levis had troubles because of other issues, but his mechanics weren’t great all the time either. They will be fixed. He will be fixed.

 

That’s why I think he should be the top pick. He won’t be. Young will be, and that’s fine if you are OK with a tiny quarterback. I am not. That’s why Levis would be the first pick in my what-they-should-do mock.

 

I was right on Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, but wrong on Christian Ponder, Christian Hackenberg and some others. So do with this what you want. But I would take Will Levis first overall.

 

For more draft content, check out our latest prospect rankings and mock drafts, as well as our new weekly podcast, “With the First Pick,” featuring former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. (Check out the latest episode below.)

 

1 – CAROLINA (from Chicago)

Will Levis QB                                               KENTUCKY • SR • 6’4″ / 229 LBS

Yes, I would take him first. His situation was terrible at Kentucky last year. But the disdain for his game has gone over the top and Carolina would be getting a future star if they took him.

 

2 – HOUSTON

Bryce Young QB                                        ALABAMA • JR • 5’10” / 204 LBS

Bryce Young is the best passer in this class, an accurate quarterback who has a great feel for the game. But I wouldn’t draft him first overall because of his size. He’s so little that there is some talk he weighed under 180 at times at Alabama.

 

3 – ARIZONA

Jalen Carter DL                                         GEORGIA • JR • 6’3″ / 314 LBS

Carter is the best defensive player in this class, and I don’t think it’s close. He can do for a defense what Chris Jones does for the Chiefs. Yes, the off-field issues are a concern, but that doesn’t mean a guy can’t change when he gets in with professional football players.

 

4 – INDIANAPOLIS

C.J. Stroud QB                                         OHIO STATE • JR • 6’3″ / 214 LBS

They are said to be high on Levis, but he goes first here. I think they would pass on Anthony Richardson to take Stroud, a prototypical pocket passer, who can be ready to play right away, which is something general manager Chris Ballard might need to save his job. They can’t wait for Richardson.

 

5 – SEATTLE (from Denver)

Anthony Richardson QB                             FLORIDA • SOPH • 6’4″ / 244 LBS

Seattle can wait for Richardson to sit and learn since they have Geno Smith. Richardson might have the most upside of any quarterback in this draft. But he has a lot of flaws that need to be fixed. That takes time. Seattle could give that to him.

 

6 – DETROIT (from LA Rams)

Christian Gonzalez CB                                 OREGON • SOPH • 6’1″ / 197 LBS

The tall corner from Oregon is the best cover player in this draft. The Lions signed two free agent corners, but Emmanuel Mosley is coming off a torn ACL. Gonzalez could start right away, and this pick means they wouldn’t be gun shy when it comes to corners after Jeff Okudah didn’t work out.

 

7 – LAS VEGAS

Devon Witherspoon CB                              ILLINOIS • JR • 6’0″ / 181 LBS

He is a feisty corner who throws his body around. But he isn’t big, which some scouts are concerned about because of the way he plays. The Raiders need a cover player, so they pass on an offensive lineman to take Witherspoon here.

 

8 – ATLANTA

Tyree Wilson EDGE                                      TEXAS TECH • SR • 6’6″ / 271 LBS

I think he’s the edge player with the most upside. He does have foot injury it’s that is concerning, but if he’s checked out medically, he will be force as an NFL player. He is a traits pick that I think will pay off in a big way.

 

9 – CHICAGO (from Carolina)

Will Anderson Jr. EDGE                              ALABAMA • JR • 6’4″ / 253 LBS

The Bears need to improve their pass rush and Anderson would do that. In this mock he falls some because I just don’t see the twitchy explosive play that you get from guys like Von Miller. He will be a good edge player, but not a perennial 15-sack guy.

 

10 – PHILADELPHIA (from New Orleans)

Nolan Smith EDGE                                      GEORGIA • SR • 6’2″ / 238 LBS

The Eagles might consider a back here like Bijan Robinson, but I would never take a back this high. So they opt for a pass rusher to supplement what they have. Veteran Brandon Graham is on a one-year deal and he’s older, so this would be a replacement pick for when he’s gone. Smith needs to add weight, but he could be a situational guy for a year.

 

11 – TENNESSEE

Peter Skoronski OT                                     NORTHWESTERN • JR • 6’4″ / 313 LBS

They lost right guard Nate Davis in free agency and they had terrible line issues last year. Skoronski could also play either tackle spots, but I think he will be an All-Pro guard.

 

12 – HOUSTON (from Cleveland)

Jordan Addison WR                                     USC • JR • 5’11” / 173 LBS

After taking Bryce Young earlier in this draft, the Texans can take a receiver to help him in the passing game. Addison is the best receiver in this class. He’s thin like DeVonta Smith, but he can make plays with his smooth route running.

 

13 – GREEN BAY (from NY Jets)

Michael Mayer TE                                        NOTRE DAME • JR • 6’5″ / 249 LBS

The Packers moved up to No. 13 in the Aaron Rodgers trade. Jordan Love will be the starter for the first time this season and that will put a lot of pressure on him in the passing game. The best thing for a young quarterback is to have a security blanket in a good pass-catching tight end. Mayer would give that to Love. They could also consider a defensive edge player here.

 

14 –  NEW ENGLAND

Broderick Jones OT                                     GEORGIA • SOPH • 6’5″ / 311 LBS

Jones might have the most upside of all the tackles in this class. He is a smooth tackle who can move in space and excels getting to the second level. He could step in and solve the left tackle spot for the Patriots, a position of need. I think he could also play guard down the road.

 

15 – NY JETS (from Green Bay)

Paris Johnson Jr. OT                                       OHIO STATE • JR • 6’6″ / 313 LBS

The Jets now have Aaron Rodgers, so why not add another talented offensive lineman to help protect him? They had a ton of injuries on their line last year, but Johnson can step in and play left tackle or even guard.

 

16 – WASHINGTON

Emmanuel Forbes CB                                MISSISSIPPI STATE • JR • 6’1″ / 166 LBS

Forbes is a thin corner, but he held up in the SEC and made a lot of plays. He will add weight to his frame, so I don’t think that will be an issue. He is a smooth cover player, and Washington could use help on the corner.

 

17 – PITTSBURGH

Bryan Bresee DL                                         CLEMSON • SOPH • 6’6″ / 298 LBS

They have some age creeping in on their defensive line and we know how much that unit is a part of their success on defense. Bresee has a ton of talent, even if injury and other issues didn’t let him show it all the time.

 

18 – DETROIT

Dalton Kincaid TE                                       UTAH • SR • 6’4″ / 246 LBS

I would consider a defensive tackle here, but I think they can get that in the second round. Kincaid will give them a player who can cause matchup problems for a defense. They traded T.J. Hockenson to the Vikings last year, so why not add another tight end to replace him? They have some young guys they like, but Kincaid would be a threat in their offense.

 

19 – TAMPA BAY

Darnell Wright OT                                       TENNESSEE • SR • 6’5″ / 333 LBS

There is talk of moving right tackle Tristan Wirfs to the left side, which would make Wright a plug-and-play as a rookie at right tackle, his natural spot. He is a nasty, tough player.

 

20 – SEATTLE

Lukas Van Ness EDGE                              IOWA • SOPH • 6’5″ / 272 LBS

The Seahawks opted for a quarterback with their first pick in this round, so now they come back and get a defensive lineman who can help amp up their pass rush. They were solid rushing the passer last season, but in their glory days they were dominant up front. Van Ness can really help that group. They could also consider an interior defender here.

 

21 – LA CHARGERS

Mazi Smith DL                                             MICHIGAN • SR • 6’3″ / 323 LBS            

Why is it that the Chargers, no matter who they sign or draft, can’t stop the run? It’s killed this team in recent years. So taking Smith can help alleviate that issue. He is a power player who will hold up in a big way against the run.

 

22 – BALTIMORE

Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR                            OHIO STATE • JR • 6’1″ / 196 LBS

I know they signed Odell Beckham Jr., but he is coming off his second torn ACL and he’s turning 31. So it makes sense in the new offense to add a a receiver. Smith-Njigba is viewed as mostly a slot receiver, but I think he can do so much more.

 

23 – MINNESOTA

Zay Flowers WR                                     BOSTON COLLEGE • SR • 5’9″ / 182 LBS

Adam Thielen is gone, which means more double teams than ever for Justin Jefferson if they don’t get him help. That’s why taking a player like Flowers makes sense. He is a talented receiver who would step in and give the Vikings a nice trio with Jefferson and K.J. Osborn.

 

24 – JACKSONVILLE

O’Cyrus Torrence IOL                               FLORIDA • JR • 6’5″ / 330 LBS

The Jaguars need an upgrade at left guard and Torrence would give them one of the biggest lines in the league. He could also move to right tackle in 2024 if they don’t bring back left tackle Cam Robinson (contract) and moved right tackle Walker Little to the left side.

 

25 –  NY GIANTS

Jakorian Bennett CB                                  MARYLAND • SR • 5’11” / 188 LBS

I love his game. He is fast and can play inside or outside. I liked him more than teammate Deonte Banks. We know the Giants need a corner, so it makes sense.

 

26 – DALLAS

Calijah Kancey DL                                       PITTSBURGH • JR • 6’1″ / 281 LBS

He isn’t a big player inside, but he can rush the passer. If the Cowboys can get pass rush inside to go with their outside rushers, that unit will be that much better on third down. Kancey has an explosive first step.

 

27 – BUFFALO

Jack Campbell LB                                       IOWA • SR • 6’5″ / 249 LBS

With Tremaine Edmonds gone to the Bears in free agency, they can take a linebacker who can run and cover and hit. Campbell is a first-round talent. He is all over the field. For the Bills, he would team with Matt Milano to give them a nice 1-2 punch.

 

28 – CINCINNATI

Joey Porter Jr. CB                                          PENN STATE • JR • 6’3″ / 193 LBS

The Bengals have a good, young corner in Cam Taylor-Britt, but Chidobe Awuzie is coming off a torn ACL and Eli Apple is an unsigned free agent. They could take Porter, who has good size and excels in man coverage. The Bengals could take a front-seven player, but Porter makes sense here.

 

29 – NEW ORLEANS (from San Francisco)

Myles Murphy EDGE                                         CLEMSON • JR • 6’5″ / 268 LBS

They lost Marcus Davenport in free agency and Cam Jordan is getting up in years. They need to upgrade their pass rush and Murphy has the tools to do that. They would also consider a power player inside here, but can get that in the second round.

 

30 – PHILADELPHIA

Bijan Robinson RB                                              TEXAS • JR • 5’11” / 215 LBS

With this deep, talented team, it’s OK to pick a back this low in the first round. Robinson will go higher than this in the real draft, but it makes sense here for Philly, even if I don’t like picking backs in the first round. This kid has a ton of talent and would be a playmaker in their offense.

 

31 – KANSAS CITY

Nathaniel Dell WR                                            HOUSTON • JR • 5’8″ / 165 LBS

Yes, I love this kid. He’s small, but he can fly. The Chiefs can add his speed and his great route running ability to their offense and make Patrick Mahomes a happy man.