The Daily Briefing Tuesday, April 26, 2022

NFC EAST

DALLAS

Jerry Jones with some hints of unusual Dallas draft strategy.  Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:

One of the talking points about this year’s draft has been that there isn’t a great deal of high-end talent available and the Cowboys appear to subscribe to that theory.

Executive vice president Stephen Jones said at a Tuesday press conference that the first two rounds are “a little more thin” than in other years and that the team has 14-16 players with first-round grades. Jones said the strength of the draft is the depth available in the middle rounds and that feeling has led to speculation that more teams will want to trade down than up later this week.

That same thought process would make getting one of those top players all the more valuable, so one could read Cowboys owner Jerry Jones’ answer to a question about draft strategy as a sign that the team might try to move up from No. 24 on Thursday night.

“We should be thinking out of the box. We should be contrarians,” Jones said, via Michael Gehlken of the Dallas Morning News.

Any trade would require the Cowboys to find a partner willing to give up their spot. If the conventional wisdom about this draft is correct, that might not be a problem.

WASHINGTON

We have to admit forgetting that someone named DARON PAYNE was a first round draft pick.  Seems like Washington’s football team will be forgetting about him as well.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Commanders General Manager Martin Mayhew said on Monday that the team has opened up discussions about a contract extension with wide receiver Terry McLaurin, but they are reportedly taking a different approach with defensive tackle Daron Payne.

Ben Standig of TheAthletic.com reports that the Commanders are not expected to offer Payne an extension. Payne is in the final year of his rookie deal after Washington exercised their fifth-year option on the 2018 first-rounder’s contract.

That runs counter to head coach Ron Rivera’s February comments about having “a tremendous amount of interest in making sure” Payne is with the team moving forward. Rivera said that before the team traded for quarterback Carson Wentz and that acquisition may be part of the reason why things are headed another way with Payne. Wentz has no guaranteed money left after this year, but has cap hits north of $26 million for the next two seasons should he remain on hand.

McLaurin’s contract likely plays a role in the team’s thinking and Washington has already signed defensive tackle Jonathan Allen to a long-term deal. A decision on defensive end Montez Sweat‘s fifth-year option is coming and defensive end Chase Young will be up for an extension after next season, so there will have to be choices about how much of the cap to commit to one position group.

NFC SOUTH

CAROLINA

GM Scott Fitterer signals a QB will be his pick at #6.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

It’s no secret that the Panthers are in the market for a quarterback and General Manager Scott Fitterer didn’t attempt to say otherwise at a pre-draft press conference on Tuesday.

Fitterer told reporters that he informed Sam Darnold that the team plans to add a quarterback this week because they “want to stabilize” the position. That stabilization could come in the draft or in a trade for a veteran like Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo.

With two days to go before the first round gets underway, Fitterer wasn’t showing his cards when it came to that path. Any move for a veteran is unlikely to happen before the first round and Fitterer did his best to keep people thinking about the Panthers taking a quarterback  at No. 6.

“I would feel comfortable with one of them, or actually a couple of them, at six,” Fitterer said, via Steve Reed of the Associated Press.

Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis have been seen as the likeliest quarterbacks to come off the board first, but the Panthers also spent time with Matt Corral, Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, and Bailey Zappe during the pre-draft process.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

The 2019 receiver class was sensational – and now they are up for new deals.  Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com has a long look at the top eight.

Here’s how he broke down WR DEEBO SAMUEL:

5. Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Pick in 2019 draft: No. 36

Samuel’s request for a trade led me to think about this wide receiver class and take the closer look that you’re seeing in this article. By multiple accounts, it seems the 49ers were interested in giving Samuel a market-value deal for a breakout wide receiver, but he wasn’t impressed, and he wants to leave the organization. If they do trade him, the team that acquires the 26-year-old would be giving up significant draft capital and paying him something in the ballpark of $25 million per season.

I’m not sure that’s a great idea. We know how devastating Samuel can be at his best, and he was a true difference-maker for the 49ers in 2021, but we can’t count on him to be that sort of player on a new deal. He left absolutely no meat on the bone last season, and it isn’t reasonable to expect him to be as efficient with big plays.

Start with his work as a receiver. Samuel is a devastating player with the ball in his hands, but he just finished a season with three different catches of 75 yards or more. Nobody else in the NFL had more than one, and the last time a single player had three such catches in a single season was Lee Evans in 2006. (Samuel didn’t have one in 2019 or 2020.) Samuel’s efficiency pops because of those ridiculously deep plays, but think about how many great downfield receivers we’ve seen over the past 15 years who haven’t pulled that off once, let alone more than once.

Those big plays drove astronomical marks of yards per route run (3.1) and yards per target (11.8). Viewing his production in terms of success rate and measuring what percentage of his targets generated positive expected points for the 49ers, Samuel comes in at 48.7%. Of the 34 wideouts who had 100 or more targets last season, he ranked 27th. That’s actually down from his 2019-20 mark, when he turned 55.6% of his targets into successful plays — but when he also wasn’t looking like real-life Tecmo Bo Jackson.

Samuel didn’t attract an otherworldly target volume (26.3% of routes), so those big plays were what really drove much of his value as a receiver. Over the second half, he transitioned into more of that hybrid role, where he was again efficient in a difficult-to-sustain way. He scored eight touchdowns on just 59 rush attempts. Seven of those came from outside the 5-yard line. He led all rushers with those seven scores outside the 5-yard line, even though Jonathan Taylor (302 carries), Najee Harris (296) and Joe Mixon (277) had dramatically more attempts.

Samuel scored once every 8.3 attempts outside of the 5-yard line; the only guys who have been even close to that mark over the past 20 years are quarterbacks and scatbacks such as Darren Sproles and Leon Washington. They’ve managed to pull it off once in a career, but it hasn’t been remotely sustainable. Samuel can still be a valuable runner without scoring touchdowns — look at his conversion that set up the game-winning field goal against the Packers in the playoffs — but there’s a big difference between running for first downs and scoring a touchdown once every eight carries.

There also have been suggestions Samuel might not want to stay in that hybrid role after leaving San Francisco, which would further diminish his profile. He can certainly be a No. 1 wideout without carrying between the tackles, but he actually produced more DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) as a runner than he did as a receiver a year ago. The Samuel we saw in the first half of 2021 could be a legit top wide receiver, but that guy also had gains of 76, 79 and 83 yards on his résumé by Halloween.

There are other concerning elements buried below the 2021 highlights. Samuel fumbled four times on just 136 touches. He dropped 10 passes, and while one-year drop numbers don’t mean much to me, he dropped eight passes on 124 targets between 2019 and 2020. He also has struggled to stay healthy, missing 11 games and all but one snap of a 12th across three years. He has a history of hamstring injuries going back to college and a Jones fracture of his foot in his past. It would be tough to expect him to play 17 games every year.

On top of all that, the team that acquires Samuel will have to count on its own ability to maximize his skillset. He would be leaving an offense run by Kyle Shanahan, who is in a small circle of candidates as the best playcaller in football. Shanahan has a long track record of putting his weapons in unique positions to succeed. What are the chances that, say, the Lions could do the same thing at the same level if they traded for Samuel?

All of this isn’t to say that Samuel is a fraud or that he shouldn’t have any trade value. He is super talented. He plays bigger than his 6-foot frame. He’s brave going over the middle and explosive after the catch. Even if he won’t have a handful of 75-yarders in his bag each year, he is capable of being a No. 1 receiver if he gets thrown the ball more often or plays with a better quarterback.

Of course, when a team trades a high draft pick and gives out a top-of-the-market extension, it isn’t trading for “capable of being a No. 1 receiver.” The 49ers are going to expect teams to pay for the 2021 version of Samuel, and he is going to expect his new organization to pay him like he’ll be that guy. Both are well within their right to do so. I just don’t love the chances of him looking like that player multiple times on his new deal.

Even if he takes a step backward in 2022, Samuel might still be a better option than the other players on this list. (He finished with 550 more yards from scrimmage than anybody else in the class of 2019.) The injury history and the uncertainty about whether he’ll be in the hybrid role moving forward cause me to drop him here.

Prediction on what will happen with Samuel: Franchise-tagged by the 49ers after 2022 season.

Here are Barnwell’s bottom lines for the other 7:

After seeing Davante Adams (Raiders) and Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) get traded before Samuel made his own request, I started wondering about Samuel’s classmates from the 2019 draft. One of the best wideout classes in recent memory is about to hit free agency, as the only first-rounders in the group who would qualify for a fifth-year option are Marquise Brown and N’Keal Harry. Some of the league’s best young wideouts — including Samuel, A.J. Brown (Titans) and Terry McLaurin (Commanders) — are eligible for extensions this offseason.

And like Samuel, it’s unclear whether those wide receivers will stick around.

– – –

With that in mind, I sorted through the eight most prominent wide receivers from the 2019 class and broke down who I’d want to invest in over the next several seasons, ranking them from 1 to 8. My picks were based on how I think each player would perform if he were surrounded with average teammates in an average offense as opposed to how he might perform based in his current offense, given that we have no idea where anybody is going to end up in the modern NFL.

1. A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans

Pick in 2019 draft: No. 51

Prediction on what will happen with Brown: Signs a four-year, $96 million extension with the Titans.

2. Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders

Pick in 2019 draft: No. 76

Prediction on what will happen with McLaurin: Signs a four-year, $100 million extension with the Commanders.

3. DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

Pick in 2019 draft: No. 64

Prediction on what will happen with Metcalf: Traded to another team before the 2022 season begins.

4. Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick in 2019 draft: No. 66

Prediction on what will happen with Johnson: Signs a four-year, $98 million extension with the Steelers.

5. Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Pick in 2019 draft: No. 36

Prediction on what will happen with Samuel: Franchise-tagged by the 49ers after 2022 season.

6. Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens

Pick in 2019 draft: No. 25

Prediction on what will happen with Brown: Leaves the Ravens in free agency after the 2023 season.

7. Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders

Pick in 2019 draft: No. 149

Prediction on what will happen with Renfrow: Signs a three-year, $57 million extension with the Raiders.

8. Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs

Pick in 2019 draft: No. 56

Prediction on what will happen with Hardman: Leaves the Chiefs in free agency after the 2022 season.

AFC WEST

LAS VEGAS

Are the Raiders really thinking about trading TE DARRREN WALLER to the Packers?  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

As an offseason of fireworks continues, logic suggests another big trade could go down in the days before the 2022 NFL Draft.

Last offseason, it was the first day of the draft when reports of Aaron Rodgers’ discontent began to swirl and didn’t dissipate for months.

So expect a flurry of reports and rumors as we inch closer to Commissioner Roger Goodell officially announcing that the Jacksonville Jaguars are on the clock.

Some reports will have legs. Others will be swiftly swatted down.

At the dawn of draft week, we already have one report being laughed at by a prominent quarterback.

Aaron Nagler, longtime Green Bay Packers scribe and co-founder of Cheesehead TV, reported that the Packers are targeting Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller in a trade, and sides have engaged in talks.

Nagler’s reports come after Jeff Howe of The Athletic reported in early April that the Packers and Raiders discussed an unnamed player as a possible addition to the Davante Adams trade. But sides realized rules don’t allow another player to be involved in a trade for a franchise-tagged player. It turns out that Waller was the player discussed.

As these rumors tend to do in modern society, the report reached Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, who laughed off the possibility of the Raiders trading Waller this offseason.

@derekcarrqb

Lol no chance.

The Raiders loaded up this spring with the additions of Adams and Chandler Jones, among others, in order to compete in a rugged AFC West. Trading Waller would take some bite out of what could be an explosive Vegas offense.

On the flip side, Waller has two years left on his contract with no guaranteed money. His $7.575 million per year average is 16th among tight ends. There aren’t 15 better TEs. Waller, who signed his current contract in 2019 while he was in the midst of his breakout campaign, deserves a new deal. If the Raiders don’t intend to sign him to a massive extension in the next two years, trading him earlier would offer the highest compensation package.

However, if Carr has his way, he’ll have Waller among his weaponry for the 2022 season.

AFC NORTH

CINCINNATI

WR TEE HIGGINS is taking care of his shoulder.  Ben Baby of ESPN.com:

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins is expected to miss offseason workouts while he recovers from shoulder surgery, coach Zac Taylor said Monday.

Higgins had the procedure following the team’s trip to the Super Bowl and was sporting a protective brace on his left shoulder during an appearance at the Cincinnati Reds’ home opener. Taylor said he expects Higgins to be out for a couple of months.

“Made a decision to get it fixed,” Taylor said. “[I] don’t expect him to be part of the offseason.”

Higgins missed the third and fourth games of the regular season because of a shoulder issue. He returned to play in every remaining game for the AFC champions, aside from the regular-season finale in which Cincinnati rested nearly all of its starters.

AFC SOUTH

TENNESSEE

RB DERRICK HENRY is a part owner of Nashville’s new soccer team.  Turron Davenport of ESPN.com:

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry joined the Nashville SC ownership group on Tuesday.

Principal owner John Ingram made the announcement via the team website.

Henry joins Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Houston Texans running back Mark Ingram and Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson as the only NFL players to double as minority owners of a soccer club.

“As a kid growing up in Florida, I imagined being a professional sports owner and the opportunity to do that with a Major League Soccer club is truly a dream come true,” Henry said via the team website.

“My investment in Nashville SC is way more than financial, it’s truly an investment in the city of Nashville. The chance to be part of a club like Nashville SC, especially after seeing what they are accomplishing in the community, was an opportunity I did not want to miss.”

Nashville began play as an MLS club in 2020, initially at Nissan Stadium, home of the Titans.

Nashville recently completed construction of Geodis Park which is the largest soccer-specific stadium in the country. The stadium will host a match for the first time when Nashville faces the Philadelphia Union on May 1.

THIS AND THAT

4 TRADES

Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com offers four trades for draft day:

It’s finally NFL draft week! And as Thursday night’s opening round nears, trade rumblings seem unusually quiet. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t efficiencies to be had and trades to be made. As such, I’ve put together four potential deals involving first-round picks.

The work below blends my draft prospect rankings, team needs and projected player selection range models to provide competitive analysis for each pick. This piece builds off how I approached my mock drafts, in that its goal is to optimize for wins in the 2022 NFL season; but, I’ve added in a three-season factor for the top five positions according to positional value (quarterback, pass rusher, left tackle, corner and wide receiver) to make it reflect a closer-to-reality result.

The goal for the trades I’ve identified is to net both NFL teams a higher projected win total in 2022, while taking into account which positions/prospects other franchises are likely to target/draft.

Without further ado, let’s get to it!

Green Bay Packers – New York Giants

GREEN BAY RECEIVES:

Round 1, 2022: No. 7 overall

NEW YORK RECEIVES:

Round 1, 2022: No. 22 overall

Round 2, 2022: No. 59

Round 2, 2023

Should the Jets trade for a wide receiver prior to the draft (or during … ahem, Deebo Samuel), or select a non-wideout (or player who is not atop the Packers’ board) at No. 4 overall, then the seventh pick stands to become a prime target for several suitors. In fact, it could shape the entire draft — especially considering the number of teams with multiple first-rounders this year. I am well aware that Green Bay has not historically drafted receivers in the first round, but context is always key. The Packers have the league’s reigning MVP (two years running) at quarterback and play in the NFC, which now has fewer top-tier QBs, reinforcing the urgency and proximity to win now.

The Packers had the tremendous fortune of landing Davante Adams in the second round in 2014, but they can’t rely on catching that kind of break again. The strategy that creates the highest probability for success is to act on the reality of supply and demand in this situation, which means leapfrogging the Falcons (who also need a receiver) at No. 8 to get the wideout of their choice. Green Bay lands its guy and still has two selections (Nos. 28, 53) in the range my models identify as the most likely to yield high-value, above-average players in this draft (Nos. 21-72).

As for the Giants, this trade gives them four selections in that aforementioned sweet-spot range. With so much depth in the 2022 class, there are a whole bunch of prospects who in other years would be rated between Nos. 20-32. So there’s a lot more projected value this year in the late-first-round-to-early-third-round (first eight picks) range relative to previous drafts. In this trade scenario, the Giants, who have a number of needs, still select at fifth overall and then four times in the desired range — plus, they get a second-round pick in 2023 as the cherry on top.

Kansas City Chiefs – Seattle Seahawks

KANSAS CITY RECEIVES:

Round 2, 2022: No. 40 overall

Round 3, 2022: No. 72

Round 6, 2023

SEATTLE RECEIVES:

Round 1, 2022: No. 30 overall

Round 3, 2022: No. 94

The Chiefs and Seahawks both have back-to-back picks early in this year’s draft (Chiefs at Nos. 29, 30; Seahawks at Nos. 40, 41), which presents an interesting opportunity for interpreting the Jimmy Johnson draft-pick trade-value chart. Kansas City, with its first-rounder (and the fifth-year option it comes with), has more leverage and could command a higher price than what I have proposed above, especially in the heat of the moment on Thursday.

Seattle’s motivation to move back into Round 1 is driven primarily by the desire to jump ahead of Detroit, which holds the 32nd and 34th overall picks. That said, it’s always nice, from a team standpoint, to have that extra year on a rookie contract — especially at the most valuable and expensive position. The ‘Hawks obtain the opportunity to take a quarterback here, offering a return far greater than the third-round pick they’re surrendering, even despite all of their needs.

After this trade, Kansas City holds five selections in the top 72, with all of them in that sweet spot my model identifies. They could use all five or bundle some of them together to target specific players at areas of need (WR or CB).

Dallas Cowboys – Houston Texans

DALLAS RECEIVES:

Round 1, 2022: No. 13 overall

HOUSTON RECEIVES:

Round 1, 2022: No. 24 overall

Round 2, 2022: No. 56

If Kyle Hamilton slides past the Commanders at No. 11 overall, the Cowboys should dial up Texans general manager Nick Caserio and make a deal. Pairing Hamilton with defensive coordinator Dan Quinn creates the greatest win-share increase for both the Cowboys and the player in 2022, which doesn’t often happen outside of the top 10 picks. For the safety position, think of a very good rookie win-share number as 0.58 wins; Hamilton to the Cowboys creates an increase of 0.74 wins. While giving up a second-rounder isn’t ideal, if they want Hamilton, the Cowboys’ alternative is sweating it out and hoping he lasts even longer on the board.

The Texans and their depleted roster need more prime selections. After making this deal, they hold five picks in the top 68 (Nos. 3, 24, 37, 56, 68) and get themselves out of No. 13, which is a lower probability ROI spot.

New York Jets – San Francisco 49ers

NEW YORK RECEIVES:

WR Deebo Samuel

SAN FRANCISCO RECEIVES:

WR Elijah Moore

Round 1, 2022: No. 10 overall

Round 2, 2022: No. 35

OK, I’ll bite on the Deebo drama. The math supports the reunion of Samuel with his former coaching staff in New York as being the optimal situation for Zach Wilson to succeed in the passing game this season. Known entities that possess Samuel’s talent level have improved their QBs’ passing production; further, younger QBs have been helped considerably when surrounded by players with elite ability (e.g., Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs; Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins; Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase).

Despite the package they give up for Samuel in this scenario, the Jets still have a first- (No. 4), second- (No. 38) and high third-rounder (No. 69) this year. They also have the salary-cap potential to work out a new contract that matches Samuel’s value.

Samuel isn’t the only 49er in line for a new deal, as Nick Bosa could get a long-term contract this offseason, too. In this trade scenario, the 49ers think they have a better chance of finding their new top receiver in the 2022 draft than they do their new top edge rusher.

2022 DRAFT

Tom Pelissaro of NFL.com has seven names that aren’t in most Mock Drafts – but could come off the board in the top 32:

Here are seven names you haven’t seen often in Round 1 mock drafts this year, but hearing them called on Thursday night wouldn’t shock NFL executives, scouts and coaches.

Lewis Cine

Georgia · S · Junior

Several names surface in conversations with teams about the second safety off the board behind Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton. But no one comes up more often than Cine, who is 6-foot-2 1/4, 199 pounds — and, as one GM put it, “can absolutely f—ing run.” Cine blazed the 40-yard dash in 4.37 seconds at the NFL Scouting Combine, with a 36 1/2-inch vertical leap and an 11-foot-1 broad jump. He was highly productive for the Bulldogs, racking up 73 tackles and nine pass breakups on the way to third-team All-America honors and winning defensive MVP of the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. Teams say his personality isn’t what you’d expect from such a physical player, but it’s not seen as a problem, especially given how hard he plays. So, while some prefer Michigan’s Dax Hill, Baylor’s Jalen Pitre or Penn State’s Jaquan Brisker, Cine has a lot of fans and his draft slot figures to reflect that.

Logan Hall

Houston · DT · Senior

No name comes up more often from GMs as a potential Round 1 surprise than Hall’s, with many pointing out that his former teammate, Payton Turner, was one of last year’s biggest surprises at No. 28 overall to New Orleans. Hall’s unique measurables (6-6 1/8, 283 pounds), athleticism (4.88 40, 4.44 20-yard shuttle, 7.25 three-cone) and pass-rush ability (6.5 sacks last season) give him intriguing versatility. He could be a five-technique defensive end in a 3-4 scheme or reduce down to a three-technique defensive tackle in a 4-3. Scouts say Hall plays too high at times. But there’s a lot to work with.

Travis Jones

Connecticut · DT · Senior

Jones plays a position that’s tough to fill (one-technique), led the Huskies last season in sacks (4.5) and pressures (25) and has helped himself through the pre-draft process — including posting a 4.92 40 and 7.33 three-cone at 6-4 3/8, 325 pounds. He has pass-rush and lateral run-play ability. He brings a strong work ethic and solid character. He boosted his stock against top competition at the Reese’s Senior Bowl. Round 1 would be rich for many executives. But in a year where there just aren’t many clean defensive linemen to consider in the first couple rounds, Jones could go higher than anybody expects.

David Ojabo

Michigan · Edge · Sophomore (RS)

It’s still too soon for doctors to say with certainty how Ojabo is recovering from the torn Achilles he suffered at the Wolverines’ pro day on March 18. He’ll be drafted lower than he would’ve been if healthy. But if everything stays on track, Ojabo could make his NFL debut sometime in 2022 — perhaps as soon as October. So why couldn’t he still go Round 1? Ojabo was a surefire first-rounder before the injury, coming off a breakout season in which he posted 11 sacks and set a single-season school record with five forced fumbles on the way to second-team All-America honors. Plus, there’s a lot of upside with Ojabo, who was born in Nigeria, moved to Scotland in 2007 and didn’t start playing football until his junior year of high school. It’s worth noting that eight teams have multiple first-round picks, potentially softening the blow of taking a player who won’t be ready Week 1.

George Pickens

Georgia · WR · Junior

If teams were drafting strictly off the tape, Pickens would be a good bet to go in Round 1, despite having just five catches in four games last season after returning from a torn right ACL suffered in spring practice. In 22 games over his first two years on campus, Pickens had 85 catches for 1,240 yards and 14 touchdowns, flashing the size (6-3 1/4, 195 pounds), speed (4.47 40) and ability of a true “X” receiver who can win one-on-one. There are concerns about Pickens’ maturity and his willingness to follow the program. (Among other things, he was suspended for the first half of a game against Georgia Tech for violating team rules in 2019 and got into a fight in the second half of that game, sidelining him for the first half of the SEC Championship Game.) But it only takes one team to overlook all that and bet on Pickens’ talent, which has drawn some comparisons to former Bulldogs star A.J. Green.

Nicholas Petit-Frere

Ohio State · OT · Junior (RS)

Petit-Frere has NFL size (6-5 1/8, 316 pounds with 33 5/8-inch arms), was widely projected as a first-round pick going into last season and earned second-team All-America honors in 2021, allowing just two sacks on 435 pass pro snaps. He had some rocky moments against a string of talented pass rushers down the stretch, including on a big stage against Aidan Hutchinson, David Ojabo and Michigan. Petit-Frere was dealing with a lot last fall, including the death of his grandmother days before an October game against Nebraska; she played a big role in his life, as did his grandfather, who passed away during the combine. Five teams hosted Petit-Frere on visits and nearly every team spent extra time with him virtually. Perhaps the first round would be a reach on a player most teams project to go in the second or third. But tackles get pushed up every year — four could come off the board in the top 10 of this draft — and Petit-Frere is plenty talented to be considered.

Quay Walker

Georgia · LB · Senior

At this point, it’ll be a surprise if Walker isn’t a first-round pick; multiple GMs say they won’t be shocked if he’s the first linebacker off the board ahead of Utah’s Devin Lloyd, perhaps even in the top 20. Walker is a freaky athlete who ran a 4.52 40 (fourth among linebackers) at 6-3 3/4, 241 pounds. He posted career highs last season with 25 QB pressures and 67 tackles, including a team-high eight in the national championship win over Alabama. Walker’s not regarded as the most instinctive player, but he can do a little of everything — cover, man the box, set the edge, play downhill — and a robust slate of visits and interviews with teams has drawn generally positive reviews. There’s just too much value and upside for Walker to stay on the board for too long.

– – –

Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com is the first to admit that this Mock Draft won’t match up with what happens on Thursday – because NFL GMs aren’t as smart as he is.

That’s why I do my annual “who-they-should-take” mock draft. It’s my chance to play GM. Rather than trying to figure out who teams will take, I plug in guys I think they should take.

Usually, it differs from the mocks and the actual draft. This one is no different.

If you are looking for Liberty quarterback Malik Willis in this mock, you won’t find him. I just don’t think he’s a first-round talent. He’s my fourth-ranked quarterback. And, no, I don’t think he’s a running back. He just played like one a lot at Liberty, sometimes out of necessity. I do have two passers in the first round in Pittsburgh’s Ryan Pickett and Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder.

Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton is another player I don’t love as much as most — including many in the NFL. So he’s down the line for me. He also doesn’t play a value position. Plus, I think he will struggle some in the deep middle.

So go ahead, get it out. I know the rips are coming. Oh, well. There will be hits and misses.

Just like the teams. Only mine won’t cost me my job, just more Twitter cult nastiness.

1  JACKSONVILLE

Evan Neal OL     ALABAMA • JR • 6’7″ / 337 LBS

The entire offseason has been about Trevor Lawrence. That should continue. Even with Cam Robinson on a franchise tag, you can never have enough offensive linemen. Plus right tackle Jawaan Taylor has struggled the past two seasons.

2  DETROIT

Aidan Hutchinson EDGE     MICHIGAN • SR • 6’7″ / 260 LBS

They land a local kid who can help a pass rush in major need of help. Hutchinson may never been a 16-sack type of player, but he can consistently be a 10-sack guy.

3  HOUSTON

Kayvon Thibodeaux EDGE     OREGON • SOPH • 6’4″ / 254 LBS

They need edge help and Thibodeaux could end up being the best edge player in this class. He has the most explosive edge ability, which matters. As long as he stays focused, this will be a steal.

4  NY JETS

Ikem Ekwonu OL     NC STATE • SOPH • 6’4″ / 310 LBS

There are only so many big people who can excel along the offensive line. Ekwonu is one of them. They pass on a corner and pass rush help here to take him.

5  NY GIANTS
Charles Cross OL     MISSISSIPPI STATE • SOPH • 6’5″ / 307 LBS

They are rumored to love him, and again taking big people who can play is never a bad thing. The question is who plays right tackle with Andrew Thomas in as the left tackle.

6  CAROLINA

Kenny Pickett QB     PITTSBURGH • SR • 6’3″ / 217 LBS

Until you solve the position, you have to keep at it. I think Pickett is the best of this class, which is why the Panthers need to take him. He is NFL ready and has the swagger you want in a quarterback.

7  NY GIANTS (from Chicago)

Travon Walker DL     GEORGIA • JR • 6’5″ / 272 LBS

He isn’t a pure edge player, but he can do so many things. He has the athletic ability to become a quality defensive lineman. He does need to be more sudden with his pass rush to become an elite defender.

8  ATLANTA

Ahmad Gardner CB     CINCINNATI • JR • 6’3″ / 190 LBS

I have them passing on a quarterback. They could pair Gardner with A.J. Terrell to give them a nice corner duo. Gardner is a pure cover player who has been held down some by injuries.

9  SEATTLE (from Denver)

Derek Stingley Jr. CB       LSU • JR • 6’0″ / 195 LBS

They haven’t used a first-round pick on a corner since 2006, but Stingley is too talented to pass up. I would pass on a quarterback here to take one in the second round or acquire Baker Mayfield.

10  NY JETS (from Seattle)

Garrett Wilson WR      OHIO STATE • JR • 6’0″ / 183 LBS

They need to get help for Zach Wilson and the passing game. There is talk this is the pick they would give up for Deebo Samuel. So why not stay here and take a cheaper receiver who will be a big-time player?

11  WASHINGTON

Drake London WR      USC • JR • 6’4″ / 219 LBS

They need to get a big-bodied receiver who can help Carson Wentz. London would be that guy. He would give them a nice group of pass-catchers.

12  MINNESOTA

Jordan Davis DL      GEORGIA • SR • 6’6″ / 341 LBS

They have two good players inside in Dalvin Tomlinson and Harrison Phillips, but Davis can be a force. He’s great against the run, but he can also push the pocket inside.

13  HOUSTON (from Cleveland)

Jermaine Johnson II EDGE     FLORIDA STATE • SR • 6’5″ / 254 LBS

Lovie Smith made his name with the ability to rush the passer with four guys. The Texans need help with their edge rush, and Johnson would provide that.

14  BALTIMORE

Tyler Linderbaum OL      IOWA • JR • 6’2″ / 296 LBS

They have a hole in the middle of their line that needs to be fixed. Linderbaum has been called by some the best center in a long time to enter the draft. The Ravens would draft and play him right away, much like the Chiefs did with Creed Humphrey last year.

15 PHILADELPHIA (from Miami)

Jameson Williams WR     ALABAMA • JR • 6’2″ / 179 LBS

They have young receivers on the roster, so they can take this chance. They can wait until he’s recovered from his torn ACL to get him onto the field. He will be a star.

16  NEW ORLEANS (from Philadelphia)

Chris Olave WR     OHIO STATE • SR • 6’0″ / 187 LBS

PROJECTED TEAM

New Orleans     

PROSPECT RNK

29th     

POSITION RNK

5th

They need to get more speed outside, and Olave would provide that. He can fly. With Michael Thomas, they would have a nice combo in the speed of Olave with the physical style of Thomas.

17  LA CHARGERS

Tyler Smith OL     TULSA • SOPH • 6’4″ / 324 LBS

He is a nasty player who would start at right tackle for the Chargers. That would give them a nice young pair in Rashawn Slater and Smith. He played left tackle for Tulsa last season, but he can move to the right side.

18  PHILADELPHIA (from New Orleans)

Jalen Pitre S     BAYLOR • SR • 5’11” / 198 LBS

They need a playmaking safety on the back end, so they opt for Pitre, who I think will be the best safety in this class. He can do so many things for a defense. Think Honey Badger 2.0.

19  NEW ORLEANS (from Philadelphia)

Trevor Penning OL      NORTHERN IOWA • JR • 6’7″ / 321 LBS

After taking a receiver, they add a tackle who can step in and start for the departed Terron Armstead. They could also consider a corner or quarterback in this spot.

20  PITTSBURGH

Desmond Ridder QB     CINCINNATI • SR • 6’3″ / 211 LBS

They need a quarterback who they can develop for the long run. I like Ridder more than Malik Willis, so this would be a good pick for the Steelers. They like their quarterbacks bigger, too, which is why I think Ridder would make more sense.

21  NEW ENGLAND

Devin Lloyd LB     UTAH • JR • 6’3″ / 237 LBS

Their linebacker situation is a mess. And this is a versatile player who can rush and play linebacker. He would bring speed to a defense that needs it.

22  GREEN BAY (from Las Vegas)

Kyle Hamilton S     NOTRE DAME • JR • 6’4″ / 220 LBS

This might seem like a strange pick, but contracts are in play for their two safeties in the next year or so and Adrian Amos is closing in on 30. Hamilton is a big, long player who can help in the dime as well playing near the line of scrimmage.

23 ARIZONA

George Karlaftis EDGE     PURDUE • JR • 6’4″ / 266 LBS

With the loss of Chandler Jones in free agency, they need to get another edge rusher. Karlaftis is a physical player who can develop into a 10-12 sack type of player.

24  DALLAS

Kenyon Green OL     TEXAS A&M • JR • 6’4″ / 323 LBS

He can play inside and outside and it’s time for Dallas to address an offensive line that isn’t what it used to be. They could also look at pass rusher or receiver here.

25  BUFFALO

Kyler Gordon CB     WASHINGTON • SOPH • 6’0″ / 194 LBS

They have one position of major concern and that is corner. They need a player who can play opposite Tre’Davious White, who, by the way, is coming off a torn Achilles’ tendon. I like Gordon more than I do his college teammate, Trent McDuffie.

26   TENNESSEE

Zion Johnson OL     BOSTON COLLEGE • SR • 6’3″ / 312 LBS

They have issues at guard in a big way and he can also move over to center when Ben Jones is done. Jones is 32 and just signed a two-year deal. Scouts rave about Johnson’s toughness.

27  TAMPA BAY

Devonte Wyatt DL      GEORGIA • SR • 6’3″ / 307 LBS

There are some character concerns for Wyatt, but he is a force inside and they need help next to Vita Vea. Wyatt would give them a nice power player on the inside who can push the pocket.

28  GREEN BAY

Treylon Burks WR     ARKANSAS • JR • 6’2″ / 225 LBS

He’s a bigger-bodied receiver, which they need. I am concerned about his speed, especially if he gets heavier, but he will be a nice target for Aaron Rodgers.

29 KANSAS CITY (from Miami)

Kaiir Elam CB     FLORIDA • JR • 6’2″ / 191 LBS

They have a hole at corner after losing Charvarius Ward, and Elam can fill it. He is a long corner who can excel in man coverage. In their division, corners are a premium with all the good quarterbacks.

30  KANSAS CITY 

David Ojabo EDGE      MICHIGAN • JR • 6’4″ / 250 LBS

They pass on a receiver here to take a player who would have gone in the top 15 if not for his tearing an Achilles’ tendon at his pro day. The Chiefs are about the postseason, and waiting for him to be ready is fine for them.

31  CINCINNATI

Trent McDuffie CB     WASHINGTON • SOPH • 5’11” / 193 LBS

They brought back Eli Apple on a one-year deal, but they need to get a long-term solution to go with Chidobe Awuzie and Mike Hilton. They could add another offensive lineman here, but McDuffie is the pick.

32  DETROIT (from LA Rams)

Daxton Hill S     MICHIGAN • JR • 6’0″ / 191 LBS

The Lions would be taking two Wolverines in this scenario who would really be upgrading their defense. Hill is a rangy safety who can run. They need that. They could go quarterback here, but I think they can pass until pick No. 34.