Colin Kaepernick spent six seasons in the NFL. Since he last played, the NFL has played seven seasons without him.

Kaepernick still wants back in.

“We’re still training, still pushing,” Kaepernick recently told Sky Sports when asked if he still wants to play in the NFL. “So hopefully. We’ve just got to get one of these team owners to open up.”

What would it mean for him to play pro football again?

“I mean, it’s something I’ve trained my whole life for,” Kaepernick said. “So to be able to step back on the field would be a major moment, a major accomplishment for me. Also, I think it’s something that I could bring a lot to a team and help them win a championship.”

I firmly believe the NFL colluded against him in 2017, with a business decision that catered to the 30 percent of the fan base that hates him and ignoring the 30 percent of the fan base that loves him. (The league ultimately settled his collusion grievance.) I also firmly believe that it’s over for Kaepernick, and that it has been.

He’ll be 37 in November. He hasn’t played since January 1, 2017. At this point, it’s just not happening.

The mere fact that his biggest champion in coaching circles — former 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh — is back in the NFL but Kaepernick’s name hasn’t even been whispered as a possibility confirms it. Back in 2017, Harbaugh said on PFT Live that he believes a team can win championships, with an “s”, with Kaepernick. Since then, Harbaugh arranged an open workout for Kaepernick at a Michigan spring game.

In 2024, it’s too late. It’s done. The NFL successfully colluded against him long enough to make it moot.

Regardless, it’s now moot. He comes off as delusional by thinking at this point that there’s even a chance.

On that point, Kaepernick expressed interest in playing flag football in the next Olympics. When he’ll be 41.

“Hopefully we’ll be out there,” Kaepernick said. “We’re gonna work on some things, see if we can make it in there. But would love to be out there.”

The notion that he’d even have a chance to make the U.S. Olympic flag football team really is “out there.” Even more out there than the idea that he’ll return to the NFL at this point.

To summarize, the NFL mistreated him. They colluded against him. They blackballed.

Regardless, they’ve long since run out the clock. Even with Harbaugh back in the NFL, it would be a major shock if Kaepernick came back at this point.

We are reminded of this from 2017, that would seem to show that Kaepernick’s sour attitude, or at least that of a girlfriend, played a role in the “collusion.”  Betsy Reed in The Guardian:

The latest reason for Colin Kaepernick’s absence from the NFL is apparently not down to his throwing accuracy, his wage demands or his protest against injustice in the United States. Instead, Ray Lewis claims a “racist” tweet sent by his girlfriend Nessa Diab stopped the Baltimore Ravens from signing the quarterback.

Kaepernick attracted huge amount of publicity last season when he refused to stand for the national anthem – which many say has led to his failure to find a new team. The Ravens were said to have been close to signing Kaepernick, but Lewis, the team’s most famous former player, said Diab’s tweet ended that conversation.

“We were going to close the deal to sign him,” Lewis told Showtime’s Inside the NFL on Tuesday night. “[Ravens owner] Steve Bisciotti said: ‘I want to hear Colin Kaepernick speak to let me know that he wants to play football.’ And it never happened because that picture comes up the next day.”

The tweet, from 2 August, compared Lewis and Biscotti to Samuel L Jackson and Leonardo DiCaprio’s characters in Django Unchained. In the film, Jackson plays a loyal slave to DiCaprio’s racist plantation owner. Diab’s tweet was addressed to Lewis and has not been deleted. It was retweeted more than 4,000 times.

Diab, a radio and TV host, is said to have influenced Kaepernick’s stance on social issues. ESPN’s Dianna Russini said John Harbaugh, the Ravens head coach, and general manager Ozzy Newsome were keen on recruiting Kaepernick as a backup to their starting quarterback Joe Flacco, but Bisciotti has blocked the move.

Lewis said: “[Diab] goes out and put out this racist gesture and doesn’t know we are in the back office about to try to get this guy signed. Steve Bisciotti has said it himself: ‘How can you crucify Ray Lewis when Ray Lewis is the one calling for Colin Kaepernick?’”

One NFL team has just signed a player with nearly as long an absence from the NFL as Kaepernick (see WASHINGTON).

NEW YORK GIANTS

A sigh of relief amongst the Giants faithful – WR MALIK NABERS was not seriously injured.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

Giants head coach Brian Daboll shared some positive news on the injury front in his Tuesday morning press conference.

Via multiple reporters on the scene, Daboll said receiver Malik Nabers went through full testing for his ankle injury and is “good.” While the Giants will keep Nabers out of practice on Tuesday, he should be OK going forward, as Daboll said it’s not a long-term injury.

Nabers suffered the ankle injury during Sunday’s practice.

Daboll also noted that quarterback Drew Lock could be available for this week’s preseason game as the signal-caller is doing a lot better. He suffered a hip contusion and strained oblique.

The Giants will head to Houston this week to play the Texans on Saturday afternoon.

WASHINGTON

WR MARTAVIS BRYANT has a chance to show his wares.  John Keim of ESPN.com:

The Washington Commanders signed receiver Martavis Bryant, who last played in the NFL six years ago and embarked on a long journey through football’s minor leagues to return.

The 6-foot-4 Bryant, who was suspended indefinitely for drug use in 2018 and was reinstated in November 2023, offers the Commanders one aspect they lack in their receiving corps: size.

Washington has one other receiver taller than 6-2 in camp: Brycen Tremayne, a 6-4 wideout who is fighting for one of the last spots at the position.

Washington released kicker Ramiz Ahmed to make room for Bryant. Coach Dan Quinn was with Bryant in Dallas last year when Bryant was on the Cowboys’ practice squad from Nov. 6 until Jan. 4, when he was released.

“He’s in really good shape and he’s really hungry to prove it,” Quinn said. “He’s been ready for a while, so it’s good to have him here.”

Bryant caught 126 passes, 17 for touchdowns, during three seasons with Pittsburgh from 2014 to ’18; he did not play in 2016 after being suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

After returning to the Steelers in 2017, Bryant signed with the Raiders the following season and was suspended indefinitely by the NFL in December 2018. He was later signed by two Canadian Football League teams, though he never played in a game. He also spent time in the Indoor Football League, the Fan Controlled Football league as well as the XFL.

Dallas signed him last season to the practice squad after he was reinstated. Quinn was the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator.

“Martavis has a really cool skill set. He’s got size and length and the ability to use him in the red zone,” Quinn said. “He looks like a linebacker playing wide out from a size standpoint.”

Quinn said Bryant’s size was a factor in Washington’s decision to sign him. He also said coaching against him in practice helped make the decision. Washington also worked out Bryant in the spring after Dallas released him.

“Seeing the skills, seeing how we compete against him, oftentimes in practice we put him into a certain spot to simulate the size of a receiver, the speed of a receiver,” Quinn said. “He’s got a real size, like the catch radius, throw it over here, he has got length to throw it away from somebody … knowing, hey, this is incomplete, or my guy’s getting it.”

SAN FRANCISCO

Even with a 90-man roster, the 49ers don’t have enough players for joint practices with the Saints.  Matt Barrows of The Athletic:

The San Francisco 49ers’ joint practices with the New Orleans Saints later this week? They’re not happening. The 49ers decided to scuttle the planned trip to Irvine, Calif., on Thursday and Friday because their roster is so banged up.

Coach Kyle Shanahan said Saturday night that 23 players missed the most recent practice on Thursday. Meanwhile, the team had at least one injury coming out of Saturday’s preseason game with the Tennessee Titans. Cornerback Ambry Thomas broke his arm in the second quarter.

Others who are currently dealing with injuries include RB Christian McCaffrey (calf), LB Fred Warner (foot), WR Ricky Pearsall (hamstring), WR Jacob Cowing (hamstring), CB Isaac Yiadom (ankle), RB Elijah Mitchell (hamstring), P Mitch Wishnowsky (knee), CB Darrell Luter Jr., RB Patrick Taylor Jr., LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, RB Isaac Guerendo, OL Jon Feliciano, OL Spencer Burford, DL Sam Okuayinonu, and DL Jordan Elliott.

Meanwhile, receiver Brandon Aiyuk and tackle Trent Williams are not taking part in training camp due to contract disputes.

Cancelling the joint practice is a big deal for Shanahan. He’s said for years that the practices — which had been conducted in Denver, Minnesota, Los Angeles and Las Vegas in recent years — are more important than preseason games.

The 49ers host the Saints on Sunday at Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers plan to practice Monday, although it will be later in the day than their usual 10:25 a.m. start time.

Noah Strackbein of SI.com with this update on the WR BRANDON AIYUK situation.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are pushing to land a deal with the San Francisco 49ers to acquire All-Pro wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. At this point, the 49ers are trying to get a deal done themselves, but if not, the Steelers are the last man standing. And more details have been revealed about their latest offer.

According to NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo, the Steelers and the 49ers would get a deal done “in a matter of seconds” if San Francisco caved and decided to move on. Currently, the main objective for the 49ers is to ink Aiyuk to a new contract, but no solid ground has been made on that front.

So, if Aiyuk doesn’t end up in San Francisco this season, he’ll seemingly become a Steeler. That means Pittsburgh gave up trade compensation to the 49ers, but it also means they’re going to sign Aiyuk to a long-term deal themselves.

There have been plenty of guesses about what the Steelers would offer Aiyuk, but now, according to Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer, that number is out. While the guesstimate was around $30 million per season, the real number is a bit lower, sitting at $28 million per year.

“The Patriots offered a deal in excess of $30 million per year. New England also has a rookie head coach, rookie quarterback, and sits on the other side of the country from where Aiyuk grew up, went to college, and has played as a pro. The Steelers’ offer was around $28 million per year that several other receivers (DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Amon-Ra St. Brown) got this offseason. They’re stable, with a Super Bowl-winning head coach, but haven’t won at the level the Niners have of late, and don’t have geographic appeal, either,” Breer wrote in his mailbag.

The Steelers have the luxury of two cheap quarterbacks this season, but next year, they’ll have decisions to make. Still, paying a wide receiver top money is a move many teams around the league make, and Pittsburgh is no exception. While it won’t be as easy as it is right now, they should be able to keep everyone under contract without any worries in 2025 as well.

This is still a wait-and-see situation, but one that is coming closer to a resolution with each day that passes. And right now, it’s just the 49ers and Steelers waiting to see who ends up with Aiyuk.

CLEVELAND

The Browns second round pick, DT MIKE HALL, Jr. has been arrested.  This after a domestic dispute in Avon, Ohio.  No further details have emerged.

TENNESSEE

QB WILL LEVIS has teamed with Hellman’s for a mayonnaise-scented fragrance.  Seriously.

The name “Will Levis” probably means different things to different people. Some envision a prospective franchise quarterback, while others eye him as a fantasy football sleeper. Then there are those who primarily view him as the NFL player who puts mayonnaise in his coffee. In 2024, he’s leaning into all of these narratives.

The starting quarterback of the Tennessee Titans is releasing a mayo-inspired fragrance with Hellmann’s: “Will Levis No. 8.” Yes, this is a real thing. After all, who can resist a scent containing notes of tart lemon, mayonnaise accord with coffee undertones, musk and vanilla?

“It’s been a very exciting process,” Levis told CBS Sports. “We started last year when we announced my life-time supply of mayonnaise contract with Hellmann’s, and now being an official spokesperson for them is really exciting. One of the ideas we had to ‘bottle up’ my love for mayonnaise and share it with the world was to create this Will Levis parfum de mayonnaise — Will Levis No. 8 — to share.

“It is what it says it is, it’s a mayonnaise-based fragrance, but we do promise that it smells great, it smells like greatness. It’s got the undertones that you’d think of in a mayonnaise: A little lemon, a little bit of coffee undertone to kind of play with how this whole thing got started.”

While Levis is now a pioneer on the olfactory front, he’s also actively forging a path to become the star quarterback the Titans desire. A lot has happened over the course of the past year. Last August, Levis was battling for the No. 2 spot on the depth chart. This August, he’s putting a conscious effort into being a leader the entire franchise can rally around.

“I think last year, stepping in, not being the guy until about midway through the season, I kinda had to play that role of being a leader however I could, mostly just through my actions and how I worked and showing the guys that I have the capabilities to be the quarterback this team needs,” said Levis. “That led to playing, which led to more confidence, so then ending the season going into the next year knowing that I was going to be the starter, started to make some things click in my brain and understand how I can lean into this leadership role and figure out on my own what kind of leader I want to be for this team.”

Levis organized group workouts this offseason to build chemistry with his playmakers on offense, including a sweet trip to Cabo. For Levis, it’s about showing his “openness” — to be there for his guys in whatever way they need.

“That starts with showing them that I’m prepared and capable and ready every time we go out there,” said Levis. “And then from there it’s creating those personal relationships and understanding the types of players they are individually, and how they are able to be led most effectively. It’s been a long process, and it’s a never-ending process as there’s gonna be new additions to this team as the year goes on and there will be new developments with the mindsets of all these players. It’s on me as the quarterback to make sure that I keep everyone together and that we all are working towards the same common goal which is the Super Bowl, and we’ve been making strides the past couple weeks just throughout training camp, and it’s been really cool to see.”

Levis understands the kind of opportunity he has in 2024. The Titans front office invested resources into their young quarterback this offseason — from hiring an offensive-minded head coach who has worked with several notable quarterbacks at different stages of their careers, to creating one of the best WR trios in the entire league. 

“It gives me a sense of confidence that they trust me, for them to invest the money in specifically my side of the ball, it’s cool to see the weapons and the capability that we have as an offense, and we’ve been able to show throughout training camp that they’ve made the right decisions in that way,” said Levis. “Continuing to prove every day how we are going to be able to use these new additions and what our identity for the offense is going to be going forward, it’s cool to see. It just makes me want to work harder for everyone in the front office knowing that they believe in me with the decisions that they’re making with the roster.”

Levis is known for his cannon of an arm, but when asked about a specific part of his game that he worked on for this upcoming season, Levis actually brought up running the ball.

“Really my health and getting my athleticism back and being able to use my legs a little bit more,” said Levis. “Not that we’re going to be a power zone read team, but I’d just like to be able to understand when it’s appropriate and feeling my pocket presence and being able to get out and make plays on the edge. I’m getting better in that way and understanding the times when it’s appropriate to do those things. Still playing within the parameters of the play, but understanding that those are the big plays that make or break games. So I want to add that to my arsenal and show that I’m capable of that.”

Offensively, the Derrick Henry days are over in Nashville. This new system is going to be about spreading the ball around to everyone. When asked about something NFL fans are going to learn about the Titans quickly in 2024, that’s what Levis pointed to.

“Our versatility,” said Levis. “I think that our identity as a team is going to be pretty different than what teams have been used to seeing when the Titans play. And that’s something we’ll figure out along the way too. We need to play games to understand what we’re good at. We have a decent idea of it after OTAs and after the first couple weeks of training camp of what we’re going to be able to do, but it’s different when it’s live and the bullets start flying. We have a lot of playmakers, a lot of guys who deserve to touch the ball and we’re going to spread it around and get everyone touches.”

Levis also boasted about the new-look Titans defense, now led by former Baltimore Ravens defensive backs coach Dennard Wilson. Apparently, he’s been throwing the offense all they can handle in practice, which is something Levis believes will help it right out of the gate.

“They’re showing us a bunch of different looks,” Levis said. “The variability that Dennard has brought with our defensive system has helped us as quarterbacks and how we’re able to see coverage and understand the different types of pressures and craziness that goes on with the different packages they have. There really isn’t a better defense, I’d say, for us to be preparing against because there’s just so much to lock in on and understand in all the different situations.

“It’s been great. It’s frustrating at times because it’s difficult, but it’s only made us better.”

Some football fans in Nashville have dubbed this offseason as the most exciting one in franchise history, but what are the realistic expectations for the Titans in 2024? The AFC South could be one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL, and Tennessee’s Over/Under win total is listed at 6.5 at sportsbooks. Only three teams have longer Super Bowl odds for the 2024 season.

What would success look like for Levis in 2024? Put simply, it’s making the right decisions as a quarterback.

“I’m not going to look at stats, I’m not going to look at record,” Levis said. “I just think I want to turn the tape on and see myself doing the right boring things on a consistent basis. I think that’s how quarterbacks play in this league for the longest time is they never get bored with doing the boring thing, and just taking a profit and understanding that, ‘Yeah, we want to get this shot, we want to get this deep ball or this play in this coverage,’ but the right decision isn’t always that. And we know that if we just continue to keep repping it and are consistent with how we’re seeing it and everyone doing their jobs — those shots will show up eventually. I think I’ve done a good job of that in camp and how I’m seeing things and checking it down. We got great backs to be able to catch the ball in space so being comfortable with checking it down to them and letting them work, seeing the value in that and understanding just how everything works together on the offensive side.

“If I can just put on the tape and know that I’m out there seeing things well and digesting everything that’s coming at me in a proper way, that will make me very confident.”

NEW YORK JETS

Disgruntled EDGE HAASAN REDDICK, who the Jets thought would play for them on the same contract he didn’t like when he was an Eagle, wants a trade.  The Jets say no deal.  Zach Rosenblatt and Diana Russini of The Athletic:

Just a few months after being dealt to the franchise, defensive end Haason Reddick has requested a trade from the New York Jets, a league source told The Athletic on Monday.

Later Monday, Jets general manager Joe Douglas said that New York will not trade Reddick.

“We have informed Haason that we will not trade him, that he is expected to be here with his teammates, and that he will continue to be fined per the CBA if he does not report,” Douglas said in a statement released by the franchise. “Since the trade discussions back in March have been clear, direct and consistent with our position.

“Our focus will remain on the guys we have here as we prepare for the regular season.”

Trust and communication issues led to this situation between the Jets and Reddick, according to team and league sources. The Jets traded for Reddick knowing he wanted a contract adjustment. New York made a below market offer before the trade but Reddick turned it down.

The Jets moved forward with the trade without a new deal in place. They said they never made a new offer on a long-term extension because they were informed by Reddick’s rep that he would play under his current contract. However, Reddick’s camp believed the Jets would do a deal and trusted this would get done by training camp.

A few weeks ago, the Jets called and said they would be willing to re-work the current deal if he showed up. From the player’s side, that’s not what they agreed to before the trade, so he didn’t show.

Now trust is broken by all.

Reddick has held out of training camp as he seeks a new contract. He didn’t attend New York’s early summer programs, including a mandatory minicamp in June. The Jets acquired Reddick, 29, from the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason and he’s set to enter the last year of his deal, which carries a $14.25 million salary in 2024.

He originally inked the three-year, $45 million deal with the Eagles in 2022. Reddick is coming off four consecutive 10-sack seasons, including 27 over the last two years while playing for Philadelphia.

This situation has officially reached disaster status. When Reddick skipped mandatory minicamp in June — and incurred $100,000 in fines — Robert Saleh said “I promise, this is not something I’m worried about.”

Saleh kept the same tone when Reddick didn’t report for the start of training camp.

“It is what it is,” Saleh said. “That’s the business part of it. We have 89 other guys that we have to prepare.”

Then days passed and Reddick still had shown no signs of reporting — and hadn’t communicated to anyone when he planned on coming. Monday marked the 21st day of Reddick’s holdout — and per the CBA, he’s incurred a mandatory fine of $50,000 per day skipped, on top of some other discretionary fines the Jets are allowed to levy against him.

Now, Reddick officially wants out — months after he made it clear he wouldn’t play for the Philadelphia Eagles without a new contract, which led to his trade to the Jets in the first place.

Currently, he ranks as the 19th-highest-paid pass rusher — but the Jets were not willing to even discuss giving him more money until he reports.

The result is a game of chicken between the Jets and Reddick: Who will give in first?

Rather than continue to play the game, Reddick decided to try and remove himself from it all together with this trade demand. It is doubtful that the Jets will grant his wish — and this does not increase the likelihood that they’ll give him a new contract either. In Reddick’s absence, however long it lasts, they’ll need Will McDonald — a 2023 first-round pick — to live up to his draft billing.

Until Reddick reports, though, this will remain a distraction.

THIS AND THAT

CHANCES TO RETURN TO PLAYOFFS

Bill Barnwell with a long ranking of how likely the 14 teams that made the playoffs last year are to pull off a repeat

1I’m going to use this column to rank the 14 playoff teams from last season by their chances of returning to the postseason. And perhaps not coincidentally, given the success rate for teams making it back in the brief 14-team era, I believe there’s a significant tier gap between the top seven teams on this list and the bottom seven. It’s too simplistic to suggest the seven most likely teams here will all make it back in and the seven least likely will miss, given how a quarterback injury or a couple of missed field goals can swing seasons, but just keep that history in mind as I run through these teams..

1  Kansas City Chiefs

Chances to make the playoffs: 87.1% (FPI’s best odds to return to postseason)

Why they’re No. 1: They’re still the Chiefs.

Some things don’t need to be complicated. Picking the reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champions as the likeliest team to advance into the 2025 postseason shouldn’t be controversial. With the league’s seventh-youngest roster a year ago and the majority of their regulars returning, it would be stunning if the Chiefs weren’t in the mix come January. They’ve won the AFC West by an average of four games over the past five years, so their division races haven’t even been close since 2018.

2. San Francisco 49ers

Chances to make the playoffs: 85.6% (FPI’s second-best odds)

Why they’re No. 2: Kyle Shanahan can’t win with just anyone at quarterback.

Brock Purdy’s ascension from seventh-round pick to superstar has led to suggestions that Shanahan is capable of taking just about anybody who isn’t Josh Johnson and building a playoff team around them at quarterback. Again, history would tell us that’s not true. The 49ers went 4-12 in 2018 when Jimmy Garoppolo tore his left ACL early in the season. Even after their trip to the Super Bowl the following season, they went 6-10 during another injury-impacted Garoppolo campaign in 2020. Heck, in 2021, he mostly stayed healthy and the 49ers needed a Trey Lance victory in Week 17 and an overtime win over the Rams in Week 18 just to make the postseason.

You could argue that the 49ers have a better roster now than they did in 2020 and 2021, and I might agree with that on paper. In reality, though, training camp isn’t off to a great start. Christian McCaffrey is already ruled out for the preseason with a calf injury, and oft-injured backup Elijah Mitchell is banged up too. First-round receiver Ricky Pearsall has been battling a shoulder injury, which is even more pressing given the uncertain status surrounding Brandon Aiyuk. Trent Williams is healthy but holding out for guaranteed money, while defensive stars Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga are returning from serious injuries that ended their 2023 seasons, including the torn Achilles the former suffered during the Super Bowl.

Given the lack of draft capital the 49ers have had to work with after the Lance and McCaffrey trades and the money they’ve spent on their core of stars around Purdy, this isn’t a team blessed with great depth. In the NFC, though, the price of playoff admission isn’t quite as high as it would be in the AFC. Barring an injury to Purdy or a cascade of injuries across its core, San Francisco should be back in the postseason for the fourth consecutive season.

3. Baltimore Ravens

Chances to make the playoffs: 78.5% (FPI’s fifth-best odds)

Why they’re No. 3: They were the best team in the 2023 regular season.

At 13-4, the Ravens had the best record of any team before the postseason began. There was little in their underlying performance to suggest 13 wins was a fluke, either; they outscored their opposition by nearly 12 points per game. That’s the 21st-best mark for any team since 1989, and those top-25 teams racked up an average of more than 14 wins per 17 games. With an MVP performance from Lamar Jackson and the league’s top-rated scoring defense, Baltimore was dominant until the AFC Championship Game.

Unlike the Chiefs and 49ers, though, the Ravens are dealing with a serious talent drain this offseason. Three of their five starting offensive linemen are no longer on the roster, while Patrick Queen, Geno Stone and Jadeveon Clowney are gone from their defense. Mike Macdonald, the coordinator who helped propel the defense forward over the past two years, is now in Seattle, replaced by a first-time coordinator in former Baltimore linebacker Zach Orr. The Ravens also play in the toughest division in football, an AFC North in which all four teams posted a winning record last season.

4. Detroit Lions

Chances to make the playoffs: 80.6% (FPI’s third-best odds)

Why they’re No. 4: One of the league’s youngest teams returns virtually everybody (and adds players where it needed help).

It’s good to be the Lions. The fifth-youngest team from 2023 returns the majority of its core talent from a 12-win season. Of the few players who played more than half of the snaps and didn’t return for 2024, the only one likely to be missed is guard Jonah Jackson, who signed with the Rams. Even he was replaced by a solid veteran in former Ravens guard Kevin Zeitler. Considering the additions Detroit made for much-needed help on the edge (Marcus Davenport) and in the secondary (Carlton Davis, Amik Robertson, first-round pick Terrion Arnold), there just isn’t much with which to quibble. This should be a very good team.

I’m a little nervous about a couple of factors, though. One is that the Lions outplayed their point differential from a year ago, going 12-5 with the scoring margin of a 10-win team. They weren’t dramatically lucky in close games, going 5-3 in one-score contests, but they lost by 32 points to the Ravens and by 15 to the Bears. That alone isn’t enough to keep them from making the postseason, but it suggests that the Lions might not have been quite as impressive as their record indicated.

In worrying about what might derail the season, I’d note that this team is still heavily dependent on its young stars staying healthy and effective. If wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown or top edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson were to go down, Detroit would be among the league’s worst teams at those respective lineup spots

5. Green Bay Packers

Chances to make the playoffs: 65.2% (FPI’s 10th-best odds)

Why they’re No. 5: The league’s youngest team has an MVP candidate at quarterback.

I’d argue that the FPI probably underestimates the Packers for a couple of reasons. One is the sheer amount of youth on this roster. The average Green Bay snap last season came from a player who was 25.7 years old, the youngest mark for any team. That’s a rare feat; going back through 2007, the only other teams with an average age under 26 to post a winning record were the 2018 Cowboys and 2023 Lions. The Packers have a lot of talent approaching or entering their peak seasons and improving in the process.

One of those players is Jordan Love, whose only real recent comparable in terms of usage happens to be Aaron Rodgers. After sitting for three seasons, Love finally got his chance to start. He was inconsistent early, but from Week 11 onward, he led the league in QBR (75.4) and expected points added per dropback (0.18) while throwing 18 touchdown passes against just one interception. Love will probably throw more than one interception every two months in 2024, but this is pretty straightforward: If the Packers get anything close to that version of Love, they’re going to be an elite team, especially if new coordinator Jeff Hafley is able to improve an often-frustrating defense.

There are variables in play. Second-half breakouts don’t always repeat the following year for young quarterbacks (see: Lawrence, Trevor). Hafley is installing a single-high scheme that might not work in a league that has shifted toward more split-safety coverages. The schedule is going to be more difficult. For all the talent the Packers have on offense, it’s unclear who their top wide receivers are and what their best offensive line combination looks like, and it might take time to figure those things out. Having too many promising receivers and linemen is a problem just about every other team would love to endure.

6. Buffalo Bills

Chances to make the playoffs: 70.2% (FPI’s eighth-best odds)

Why they’re No. 6: It’s a new era for a perennial contender.

The Bills are in the middle of a roster transition. Several stalwarts of the Josh Allen era left this offseason, including wideouts Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs, center Mitch Morse, cornerback Tre’Davious White and safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Buffalo is eating more than $61 million in dead money this season, the second most of any team. This seems like a reset year as the franchise tries to re-envision its roster around a more expensive Allen.

Reset years don’t always produce disappointing seasons, however. The Rams just made the playoffs in what looked like a reset season. The Bills themselves made the playoffs in 2017, Sean McDermott’s first year with the franchise, one in which he benched Tyrod Taylor for Nathan Peterman in midseason. McDermott is an excellent defensive coach and developer of young talent, and while the names in the back end aren’t as notable as they once were, I have faith that he will get more out of players such as Cole Bishop and Taylor Rapp than they showed in their prior stops.

The reality is that many of those big names were either less effective than they once were or too often injured to make a reliable impact. (Another player in that group, Von Miller, remains on the roster only after taking a pay cut.) I expect the Jets and Patriots to improve this season, which will hurt the Bills’ chances of dominating the AFC East, but I’d be surprised if Allen isn’t able to propel this team into the postseason for the sixth straight year.

7. Houston Texans

Chances to make the playoffs: 64.6% (FPI’s 11th-best odds)

Why they’re No. 7: Have you seen the AFC?

The Texans have a lot to be excited about. C.J. Stroud was phenomenal as a rookie last season, and the young quarterback looks like he’s a legitimate superstar. Will Anderson Jr. became the young difference-maker Houston has long sought on the edge. The organization added a star receiver to the mix this offseason in Stefon Diggs, and after the Texans won a playoff game in January, the AFC South looks like it could be theirs for the next several seasons.

Of course, you could have said much the same 12 months ago about the Jacksonville Jaguars, whose unquestioned reign atop the division lasted for about half a season. The parallels aren’t exact. The Texans have added more to the roster this offseason than the Jags did a year ago, but the moves weren’t all additive: Danielle Hunter is still an excellent pass rusher, but he’s taking over for the departed Jonathan Greenard, who had 12.5 sacks a year ago.

Unlike the Lions and Packers in our triumvirate of sexy breakout teams, the Texans were one of the league’s oldest squads, a product of general manager Nick Caserio choosing to construct his roster around lots of veterans on short-term deals during the rebuild. That move likely accelerated Houston’s improvement once it landed young difference-makers in Stroud, Anderson and Derek Stingley, but it also might limit the team’s ability to grow around that core.

For every team like the Jaguars that doesn’t build on its breakout season, there’s one like the 2023 Lions, who came through and took another leap forward. That’s obviously in the range of outcomes for the Texans. In an AFC in which just about every serious playoff contender seems to have a quarterback with MVP upside, though, there are no guarantees they will land a playoff spot if they fail to win the AFC South. And while they should be favorites to reclaim the division title, well, both the FPI and I are a little more nervous about their chances than the public seems to be.

8. Dallas Cowboys

Chances to make the playoffs: 77.8% (FPI’s sixth-best odds)

Why they’re No. 8: “lol”

That was CeeDee Lamb’s response when team owner Jerry Jones suggested he didn’t have any “urgency” to get a new deal done with his star wide receiver. Lamb and Dak Prescott are both free agents after the season, while Micah Parsons will also be eligible for a new contract. The negotiations and lack of progress have held the Cowboys hostage all offseason, in part because Jones seems more interested in winning news conferences than building the best possible football team for 2024.

The money put aside for the pending free agents caused the Cowboys to lose six players who suited up for at least half of the offensive or defensive snaps a year ago, including Tyron Smith, Stephon Gilmore and Tony Pollard. The only veterans they added to the roster were Ezekiel Elliott and Eric Kendricks, both of whom are on the downside of their (illustrious) careers. Dallas’ roster construction has always leaned top-heavy over the past two decades, but the current squad is an even more extreme example of that philosophy heading into the season.

Pessimism about the rest of the NFC East has me leaning toward the Cowboys as the favorites to win the division by default, but it’s difficult to see how this team is better than it was in 2023 because of the peak performances it saw from its stars a year ago and the talent drain behind them, which seems to cap the ceiling. And if Dallas doesn’t have Prescott, Lamb or Parsons for any stretch of time, it’s tough to see how it can get by for very long. I still think the Cowboys are a playoff team, but I’m not as optimistic as the FPI about their chances.

9. Philadelphia Eagles

Chances to make the playoffs: 79.4% (FPI’s fourth-best odds)

Why they’re No. 9: Five points.

That’s the number of points the Eagles outscored their opposition by last season, which is usually the mark of a .500 team. They were on our list of teams likely to decline last season, and while it didn’t exactly feel great when they started 10-1, the 1-6 stretch that followed confirmed that they weren’t as talented or successful as the team that went to Super Bowl LVII. A blowout loss in Tampa confirmed an offseason full of bad vibes for Philly.

It would be simplistic to say the Eagles weren’t as good as they were during that 10-1 start and not as bad as they looked during the one-win finale, but even that’s too favorable toward how they played. They went 7-1 in one-score games during that 11-game start to the season, eventually finishing 7-3 in close contests. They did that against a below-average schedule, per the FTN Football Almanac, and with the best special teams DVOA of any team.

Changes have been made, of course. Saquon Barkley and Devin White in. C.J. Gardner-Johnson is back. The Eagles loaded up on cornerbacks in the draft and replaced both of their coordinators with veterans who have been successful elsewhere in Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio. Seemingly every starter on the offense besides Jalen Hurts got a new contract this offseason. Anything that happened after Big Dom was ejected from the loss to the 49ers last season will never appear on an Eagles jumbotron again.

And yet, we know teams that win 11 games with a basically even point differential almost always decline. The coordinators didn’t exactly put up great seasons a year ago with talent in Los Angeles and Miami. Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox retired, and the offensive and defensive lines are relying more on young, unproven talent than they have over the past couple of years. White was benched in Tampa last season. Barkley struggled to stay healthy for the Giants. Gardner-Johnson is already banged up.

I still lean toward thinking the Eagles are a playoff team, given the talent throughout their roster and the potential for their young players to improve. There’s more combustibility here and both a higher ceiling and a lower floor than it might seem from their past few seasons. They can make it back to the Super Bowl but are also entirely capable of missing the postseason altogether.

10. Miami Dolphins

Chances to make the playoffs: 60.4% (FPI’s 12th-best odds)

Why they’re No. 10: December 2023 and January 2024.

Things weren’t much better down the stretch for the Dolphins, who lost three of their final five games to hand the division to the Bills. The Week 18 loss to Buffalo sent the Dolphins to Arrowhead for the divisional round, where they mustered 13 first downs in a 26-7 loss. While the team’s 2022 slide could be chalked up in part to the absence of injured quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, his struggles over the final month-plus were on display last season.

What might be more meaningful for 2024, though, is what happened to the team broadly in the final month of the season. Bradley Chubb suffered a torn ACL, and when combined with the torn Achilles endured by Jaelan Phillips in late-November, the Dolphins should be dealing with limited or absent top edge rushers at the beginning of this season. Shaq Barrett, one of the players acquired to fill in for the missing duo, retired at the start of camp.

With Tagovailoa penciled in for the massive raise he eventually agreed to in late July, the Dolphins were forced to cut back after two offseasons of heavy spending. Christian Wilkins and Robert Hunt, the two most expensive non-quarterbacks on the market, left in free agency. An offensive line that had finally coalesced after years of struggling to protect Tagovailoa will have new starters at center and right guard, while left guard Isaiah Wynn is on the physically unable to perform list and left tackle Terron Armstead has missed 11 games and left three others early over the past two seasons. The most obvious path for the Dolphins to fall apart would involve a Tagovailoa injury, and the line protecting him looks more vulnerable than it has since his early days in aqua and orange.

If the Jets and Patriots both improve as expected, the AFC East will be a slog. The FTN Football Almanac projects the Dolphins to play the league’s third-toughest schedule. Under Mike McDaniel, they have been good enough over the first three months of the season to overcome their play afterward. If the injuries and uncertainty on both sides of the line of scrimmage keep them from getting off to that hot start, they might have no choice but to find ways to win in December and January if they want to keep their playoff streak alive.

11. Los Angeles Rams

Chances to make the playoffs: 47.2% (FPI’s 14th-best odds)

Why they’re No. 11: Absences.

The most glaring absence for this L.A. team is the Hall of Fame-sized hole in its defensive line. Aaron Donald’s retirement fundamentally changes what the Rams are capable of doing on that side of the ball, piling more pressure on last season’s young breakout pass rushers in Byron Young and Kobie Turner. I like what the team did this offseason to add young players up front (Florida State linemen Jared Verse and Braden Fiske in the draft) and low-cost veterans in the secondary (safety Kam Curl and corners Tre’Davious White and Darious Williams), but there’s no replacing one of the greatest defenders in league history. The Rams will also be without defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, who left to take the head-coaching job in Atlanta.

We already knew about Donald, but suddenly, there are absences to be worried about on offense, too. The Rams are dealing with injuries to nearly half of their first-team offense, including Kyren Williams (foot), Puka Nacua (knee), Rob Havenstein (ankle), Jonah Jackson (scapula) and Alaric Jackson (ankle). That’s three starting linemen and the team’s two fine young playmakers. The hope is they’ll all be back for Week 1, but these were the guys who were supposed to be healthy around veterans Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, both of whom are on the wrong side of 30 and have had recent issues staying close to 100 percent for entire seasons.

As long as Stafford and most of the key offensive contributors are healthy, the Rams should be able to do enough to make it back into the postseason, especially in a weakened NFC West. We just saw this team fall apart in 2022, though, because it wasn’t able to keep Stafford on the field for the second half of the season. Those Rams went 2-4 down the stretch. They’ll need to have all (or at least most) hands on deck to survive for a full season.

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chances to make the playoffs: 33.6% (FPI’s 21st-best odds)

Why they’re No. 12: The margin between the top two (or three) teams in the NFC South was (and is) very thin.

In last year’s version of this column, the Buccaneers ranked last among the 14 teams I was expecting to return to the postseason. Full credit to Baker Mayfield & Co. for exceeding my expectations, but let’s also be realistic about where they were. They finished with the same record as the 9-8 Saints, who beat them handily when they had a chance to clinch the division at home in Week 17. They were two games ahead of the Falcons, who had a clear problem at quarterback and upgraded by signing Kirk Cousins and using a top-10 pick on Michael Penix Jr. The 2023 Buccaneers finished 17th in DVOA. The Saints were 15th. The Falcons were 28th, but they fell off dramatically in the final two weeks, when coach Arthur Smith was all but out the door.

I’m not sure there’s a huge gap between any of these teams heading into 2024. The biggest difference between the three might be their schedule; by virtue of winning the division last season, the Bucs have to play the Lions and 49ers, while the others in the NFC South avoid the first-place teams from the NFC North and West. And while acknowledging that this is certainly the weaker conference, I’m not sure any of these teams are strong enough to land a wild-card berth, something I feel more confident about in the case of every NFC team ahead of Tampa Bay on this list.

13. Cleveland Browns

Chances to make the playoffs: 33.5% (FPI’s 20th-best odds)

Why they’re No. 13: They’re the only team that might be saddled by its starting quarterback returning to health.

On one hand, you might say the Browns were unlucky last season. They lost both their starting offensive tackles for most of the year and were down to third-stringers by the time they lost to the Texans in the postseason. Myles Garrett was playing at a Defensive Player of the Year level before suffering a shoulder injury that slowed him down in the second half of the season. And of course, they started five different quarterbacks during the regular season, something that hasn’t been done in a non-strike season since 1984.

That team in 1984 was the Bears. Like the Browns, they made it to the postseason on the back of a dominant defense. And in 1985, well, you probably know what happened: One of the best defenses in league history propelled Jim McMahon & Co. all the way to a Super Bowl title. Given how great Cleveland was when healthy last season, there’s always a chance it fields an elite defense and uses that to make it back into the postseason.

QB Deshaun Watson or Steelers QB Russell Wilson needs to win the AFC North the most.

These Browns are locked into Deshaun Watson at quarterback, though, and Watson hasn’t been good or even close to good since his final snaps for the Texans in 2020. He wasn’t as effective as street free agent and late-career journeyman Joe Flacco in 2023, and Cleveland fans and players are smart enough to notice the difference. If Watson struggles again early this season, there will be legitimate complaints about whether the Browns are wasting a great defense with an unloved, overpaid starting quarterback.

That 1984 Bears team went 10-6 with a 10.5-win Pythagorean expectation, suggesting that further growth was ahead. The 2023 Browns were 11-6 with a 9.4-win Pythagorean expectation, buoyed by a 6-2 record in games decided by seven points or fewer. Given the likely improvement from the Bengals, Chargers and Jets, the questions about Watson’s effectiveness and the inconsistency even great defenses show from year to year, the FPI is nervous about Cleveland’s chances of returning to the postseason. So am I.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers

Chances to make the playoffs: 29.0% (FPI’s 22nd-best odds)

Why they’re No. 14: I foolishly choose not to believe in Mike Tomlin Magic.

I know, I know. Don’t make the same mistake twice. Or three times. Or however many times the numbers say to count out the Steelers. Tomlin has managed to coax at least eight wins out of his team in every single season he has coached the franchise, a streak that has survived dismal quarterback play, injuries and woefully inept offensive playcallers. You know I’m about to get to the numbers, but the numbers shouldn’t apply to Pittsburgh.

Maybe they shouldn’t, but in the past, this was the same story I heard about other teams that weren’t going to regress toward the mean. Ask the 2020-21 Packers and Titans, teams that gleefully defied the numbers. In 2022, they both fell to earth in exactly the way the data would have suggested. The 2011-13 Colts broke the rules until … they didn’t anymore.

And so, regrettably, I must report that the Steelers should not be able to keep this up. They went 10-7 while being outscored by 20 points last season. They were 9-2 in one-score games. They were the league’s ninth-oldest team, combining one of the youngest offenses with the oldest defense. They’re also about to take Russell Wilson and Justin Fields to a showdown of Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks in their prime in the AFC.

There’s no reason anybody should think this would work if it weren’t for the fact that, well, it’s the Steelers and Tomlin, and they seem to defy the odds every year. I’ll cover this more in my column on teams likely to decline, but that isn’t really the case. From 2007 to 2019, Tomlin went 61-50-1 (.549) in games decided by seven points or fewer. Over the past four seasons, with limited or replacement-level quarterback play, he’s a combined 29-10-1 (.738) in those same contests.

Can he keep doing this? Maybe. In a brutally difficult division, on the tougher side of the bracket, and with castoffs at quarterback? If anyone can, it’s Tomlin.

2024 DRAFT

Chad Reuter of NFL.com rated some rookies on their Week 1 performances.  Here are three to whom he bequeathed an “A”:

BEARS AT BILLS

Grade A – Caleb Williams

USC · QB

Chicago Bears

The No. 1 overall pick in April started Saturday afternoon’s 33-6 win over the Bills in Buffalo. Bears fans saw all his attributes during the contest, with Williams leading the team to field goals on each of his two drives. The 2022 Heisman Trophy winner stood tall in the pocket on the first series, looking at multiple targets before peppering a first-down throw to DJ Moore. Williams also showed his improv ability, stepping out of a closing pocket early in the drive to throw away a pass and later flipping a no-look screen pass while under pressure to running back D’Andre Swift, who ran for 42 yards. Bears coaches got Williams out of the pocket on the second series, with the 22-year-old throwing two shorter passes (one dropped) and two downfield hurls (one dropped). He stepped up on a third-down play to run for a first down on that drive, smartly sliding before taking a hit. So far, so good.

BUCCANEERS AT BENGALS

Grade A – Graham Barton

Duke · C

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are looking to Barton to replace veteran leader Ryan Jensen, who retired this offseason. The first-rounder looked the part at center in Saturday’s win despite not playing the position in a game since his freshman year at Duke. Barton stood strong against bullish Bengals big men, widening his stance and resetting his hands when needed. An inside twist late in the first quarter tested his agility, but he later displayed great athleticism by clearing out a blitzing linebacker from the A-gap. Barton’s quickness from his stance helped him make reach blocks and combo to second-level defenders, notably escorting an opponent into the end zone on a first-quarter touchdown run. Bucs running backs are going to make cuts off Barton’s duo and zone blocks regularly this season. He finished a couple of blocks all the way to the ground in the second quarter, showing the sort of nasty streak Bucs fans routinely saw from Jensen.

SAINTS AT CARDINALS

Grade  A

Darius Robinson

Missouri · DL

Arizona Cardinals

Robinson played just 10 snaps during the Cardinals’ loss to the Saints, but that was enough time for him to provide a glimpse into why Arizona used a first-round pick to secure his services in April. His strength and quickness appeared on the first play of the game, as he stayed with right tackle Trevor Penning down the line to stop Alvin Kamara after a 5-yard run. The former Missouri Tiger then shed veteran guard Cesar Ruiz with strong hands and a quick first step on second down. Robinson forced his way to the quarterback on third down on the second series, reaching through the left guard with his plus length to hit Derek Carr just after he threw the ball. Penning couldn’t reach the quick Robinson on a run play on the next series and then drew a holding call on the next snap after preventing Robinson from chasing the scrambling quarterback to the outside. The small sample of plays exhibited what a nice fit Robinson will be for Arizona’s defense.