Barring a reversal, it looks like there will be fans attending at least one NFL game this year.  KMBC9 in Kansas City:

The Kansas City Chiefs have finalized their plans to have fans in the stands at Arrowhead Stadium this fall.

Under the guidelines established by the NFL, and with the approval of Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas, City of Kansas City Health Director Dr. Rex Archer and City of Kansas City EMS Medical Director Dr. Erica Carney, the Chiefs have finalized plans for a reduced capacity of approximately 22% to kick off the 2020 season.

The Chiefs said included in the approved plans are important health and safety protocols that the club, in consultation with the University of Kansas Health System, has developed for fans who will attend games at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs said masks will always be required for fans attending games at Arrowhead Stadium, with the exception of when fans are actively eating or drinking.

While fans are asked to bring their own mask to use upon entering the complex, the Chiefs said they will provide a commemorative mask to all fans who attend the first three games.

The Chiefs also said tailgating will be allowed in the parking lot at Arrowhead Stadium, but guests should only use the tailgate area behind their vehicle to maintain proper physical distancing between groups. Fans are encouraged to wear masks in parking areas as well, the Chiefs said.

The plan also says guests will only be allowed to tailgate with fans who have tickets within their ticket pod, and a tailgate-free zone will be provided for fans who prefer that option.

A full breakdown of policies and protocols for the 2020 season is available at www.chiefs.com/stadium/covid. Here are some of the other changes for the 2020 season:

All staff members will be directed to wear personal protective equipment (PPE) and to exercise proper hygiene.

Guests will see new physical distancing measures in place, including in seating areas, in areas where lines tend to form, as well as in high-traffic areas.

Hand sanitization stations have been installed throughout the stadium for fan use.

The stadium will be completely cashless to minimize contact between guests and staff during payment transactions.

Traditional scan and chip options for credit and debits cards will remain in place at all points of sale.

Tap payment and other mobile wallet payment platforms such as Apple Pay, Google Pay and Samsung Pay will also be accepted.

The Club has also introduced Chiefs Pay, a payment platform within the Chiefs Mobile app, that will debut during the season. More information on Chiefs Pay is available at www.chiefs.com/chiefspay/.

With the reduced game-by-game capacity confirmed, the Chiefs said single-game tickets for the club’s first three games will go on sale to season ticket members beginning on Monday.

The Bears will not be so bold.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Bears announced Monday they will begin the 2020 season without fans in the stands at Soldier Field.

They will continue to evaluate things on a week-by-week basis and hope the COVID-19 numbers change enough during the season that they can open the gates to at least some fans at some point.

Chicago’s home opener is Sept. 20 against the Giants with its next home game on Oct. 4 against the Colts.

“The Chicago Bears, Soldier Field’s management partner, ASM Global, the Chicago Park District and public health officials have worked together to assess whether a responsible plan that follows city, state, CDC and NFL guidelines could be developed to safely accommodate a limited number of fans at Soldier Field this season,” the Bears wrote on social media. “After discussing a draft plan with city health officials, the Bears and the city of Chicago agreed the health metrics show that it is not the right time to welcome fans back to Soldier Field. The health and safety of the city’s residents and fans of the Bears will always take priority. The team and city will continue to monitor the environment and believe there can be a sound plan in place to bring fans back to Soldier Field once it is deemed safe and appropriate. Until then, Bears home games will not include in-person fans.”

The Falcons say no fans for their first two home games in September – vs. Seattle and vs. Chicago.

– – –

This bit of positivity on the player front from Mike Florio:

As the NFL moves closer to the first game of the 2020 season (it’s only 22 days away), the NFL is moving closer to no players on the COVID-19 reserve list.

Currently, the total number has dropped to 12.

It’s a great sign for the league as it relates to the handling of the situation, but the latest test of the NFL’s procedures and theories arrived on Monday, with the commencement of widespread padded practices.

The league believes that transmission is unlikely in an open-air setting, even as players breathe, bleed, spit, cough, and sweating in close quarters. If a player slips through the cracks with while shedding the virus and enters that fray what will happen? That remains to be seen.

It remains critical that everyone continue to do everything that they should to avoid catching the virus and then bringing it to the facility. One head coach expressed dismay over the weekend regarding the league’s recent effort to tout the success to date of the testing program, both as it relates to the possibility that some players may become complacent and as it relates to the notion of the good, old-fashioned jinx.

Regardless, things currently are indeed going well. The teams seem to be determined to ensure that this continues. To make it continue through the entirety of the 2020 the season will require tremendous commitment and focus. So far, the good news is that it seems to be working.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

The Cowboys lost DT GERALD McCOY on Monday.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Fears that Cowboys defensive tackle Gerald McCoy tore his ACL during Monday’s practice were unfounded, but the true nature of his injury didn’t wind up being any better for his availability this season.

Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones announced that McCoy ruptured his right quadriceps tendon. He will have surgery to repair the injury and will miss the entire 2020 season.

McCoy signed a three-year deal with the Cowboys as a free agent this offseason. He received a $3 million signing bonus and had his entire $2.5 million salary for this year guaranteed. McCoy has $1.5 million of next season’s $5 million salary guaranteed.

Dontari Poe, Trysten Hill, third-round pick Neville Gallimore and Antwaun Woods are on hand at defensive tackle. Tyrone Crawford could also see more time on the interior with McCoy out of the picture.

An interesting injury reporting conundrum arose as reporters at practice were gagged by an agreement while Ian Rapoport, tipped off elsewhere, broke the story.

@clarencehilljr

This is bs…Cowboys won’t let us tweet during practice and we saw it happen. Someone gives it up. We have to wait until practice is over

@RapSheet

#Cowboys veteran DT Gerald McCoy went down in practice with an apparent leg injury, I’m told. The severity is unclear, but something to watch for moving forward.

@TimCowlishaw

So…Cowboys reporters saw DT Gerald McCoy injured in practice today. They have some new agreement they can’t report it until after practice. Yet @RapSheet who isn’t THERE reports it. That’s messed up.

WASHINGTON

As of August 17, 2020, the Washington Football Team is the only team (in NFL history?) with a minority starting quarterback, a minority head coach and a minority president.  John Keim of ESPN.com on the hiring of former NFL running back Jason Wright at Team president:

Washington has hired Jason Wright as team president, making him the first Black team president in NFL history and only the fourth former player to ascend to that role.

More than any historic aspect, Wright said that what excites him is the convergence of his two worlds: football and business.

“It’s a huge moment to bring those two worlds together,” he told ESPN. “What other job would they come together at such a unique time for an organization at the point our team is? I’m just happy I landed in this role at that time. There are other reasons it’s historic, but that’s a byproduct of me being the right and qualified candidate at this time. All of that is just icing on the cake.”

But Wright said he understands the significance of his hiring.

“What it tries to signal is that, at least in this organization, the hindrances that tend to be in place around Black talent in other places are breaking down,” he said, “and that should send a signal more broadly to the shift in culture that Dan and Tanya Snyder, Coach Rivera and myself are now trying to make.”

Washington had been without a president since Bruce Allen was fired after the 2019 season. The team hired coach Ron Rivera and gave him full power, as owner Dan Snyder said he wanted a coach-centric approach.

Wright’s hiring won’t change that, as he won’t be involved in the football side like Allen was during his 10-year reign. Wright, 38, will focus only on the business side, including operations, finance, sales and marketing. Like Rivera, he will report directly to Snyder.

“[Rivera] is the chief executive of everything that happens on the football side, and I run the business side,” Wright said. “It’s super clear.”

Wright said he began talking with Snyder fairly recently about the job and called it a whirlwind.

“You could say there’s a lot going on, you sure you want to take this on? Yeah, absolutely,” Wright said. “Their actions] made me really confident I could come in here and effect change, that I’d have the ability and autonomy to make real change.”

He also embraces the challenge of coming to the NFL while facing the obstacles of a pandemic and at a time when “the Washington Football Team is at a unique moment, and the NFL, for better or worse, is at the center of so much important dialogue around the role of sport, the players finding their voice about the things they care about.”

Wright will be tasked with helping to change the culture in Washington. Another challenge will be to help locate an area to build a new stadium. Washington has been trying to find a spot in Virginia, Maryland or the District of Columbia for several years. The lease on the land at FedEx Field expires after the 2027 season.

“If I could custom design a leader for this important time in our history, it would be Jason,” Snyder said in a statement. “His experience as a former player, coupled with his business acumen, gives him a perspective that is unrivaled in the league. We will not rest until we are a championship caliber team, on and off the field.”

Recently, one former longtime Washington employee said the team needed to add more diverse voices but also needed to expand its net to search for talent. Too often, this person said, the organization relied on a small circle to choose high-level employees.

Wright’s hiring shows a wider net was cast. He had been a partner in the Washington office of McKinsey & Company, a global strategy and management consulting firm. Among other aspects, Wright focused on getting executive-level managers to help in environmental matters. He also co-piloted McKinsey’s anti-racism and inclusion strategy and helped create the Black Economic Forum.

In Washington, Wright will lead a franchise that has undergone severe changes in the past several months. The organization decided to retire its former name and for now will be called the Washington Football Team. There was also a damaging report in The Washington Post last month detailing sexual harassment accusations against five former employees. Wright said he liked how quickly Washington hired a law firm to investigate the situation.

In multiple stories, ESPN has detailed issues surrounding what many called a toxic atmosphere in the building. Among the solutions many employees, current and former, wanted were a strong leader in the president’s role and more diverse voices. Washington also hired Julie Donaldson to head its communications division, making her the team’s highest-ranking female executive. She will also be the first woman who is part of an NFL team’s radio broadcast.

“The facts say when you have a diverse leadership team, when you give more than one woman a voice in meaningful decisions, you get to better outcomes,” Wright said. “It’s so empowering to all of our employees and particularly those that may have had challenges in the past to actually exerting their voice and bringing their full selves is priority No. 1.”

All of these moves, he said, signal that it’s a “new day” in Washington.

“It’s a pivot from what’s been around in the past to a culture that’s being inclusive, that’s transparent, where people are able to thrive on and off the field,” Wright said, “and on the business side, irrespective of demographic or background, and actually seeing that diversity as a strength that helps us make better business decisions to [being] better on the field. Insofar as it signals a shift, it’s a very exciting thing.”

He said his football background also will help. Wright played seven years in the NFL as a running back with four teams, retiring after the 2010 season to attend business school. He entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent out of Northwestern, where he remains the No. 7 all-time leading rusher in school history.

“When I was a third-down back, I wasn’t worried about what the left tackle was doing,” he said. “I trusted him to do his job, and I do my job. I want to set that norm for us on the business side as well, where we have people that are trusted to where we really believe in the folks working alongside us. Make sure they have the tools to succeed, but then let them fly.”

Wright, at age 38, becomes the youngest current president in the NFL.

Prior to today, the highest-ranking Black on an NFL business side is believed to be Kevin Warren who served four years with the Vikings as chief operation officer.  Warren is now in the news as the face of the Big Ten’s decision to abandon football for the fall of 2020 in his first year as that conference’s commissioner.

From Diamond Bar, California, Wright earned an M.B.A. from the University of Chicago’s business school and joins the organization after working at McKinsey, a strategy and management consulting firm in Washington, D.C., an area he’s called home since 2013.

We thought it would be easy to find, but so far no luck in finding the other three players to serve as “team president” prior to Wright’s selection.

Mark Murphy, the current president of the Packers, would clearly seem to be one of the three.

John Elway is president of football operations for the Broncos, but Joe Ellis is the president and CEO – so we don’t know that he counts.

John Lynch is not president of the 49ers, as of yet.

George Halas was president of the Bears along with a bunch of other titles including the more powerful owner.  Is he one of the three?

We see that Curly Lambeau carried a president title with the Packers.

Jerry Richardson was the owner of the Panthers, but we don’t see president on his list of titles.

We would not be surprised to see that more than four former players have carried a president title at some point.

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

CB ROBERT ALFORD’s body opts out of 2020, just as it did in 2019.  Jeremy Cluff of the Arizona Republic:

Arizona Cardinals cornerback Robert Alford will miss the upcoming season with a torn pectoral, according to a report by NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport.

Alford was reportedly injured on Sunday during a workout at training camp at State Farm Stadium in Glendale.

Rapoport reported that Alford will have surgery.

Alford, 31, missed all of last season with a fractured leg.

He was expected to be the team’s starting right corner opposite Patrick Peterson.

– – –

He may never be taller, but QB KYLER MURRAY is thicker.  Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com:

When Kyler Murray returned home to Texas after his rookie season with the Arizona Cardinals, he took two weeks off to rest, recover and recuperate, then it was off to the daily grind of preparing for Year 2.

Waiting for him was his longtime trainer, Stephen Baca.

The two started working together when Murray was a sophomore at Allen High School and Baca was just beginning at Performance Course, the gym in Allen, Texas, that Murray has worked with in one way or another for the past seven years.

Together, while executing the training plan put in place by Cardinals strength and conditioning coach Buddy Morris, Murray and Baca replaced the weight Murray lost during the season, kept his legendary speed and added bulk that Baca hopes will make him more durable. Murray added somewhere between 7 and 9 pounds of muscle, Baca said. He also increased his flexibility and range of motion meant to prevent injuries.

– – –

For the first time since perhaps junior high, Murray — the No. 9 overall pick in the 2018 Major League Baseball draft and No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft — had an entire offseason to focus on just football. As long as he played baseball, especially in college, he went from football season right into baseball season. And even though he didn’t play baseball last season, he was busy with the pre-draft process, which took away from training.

This year was different. Completely different. Murray was “not trying to tear my body up” this offseason. He was all football all offseason.

Murray worked out four days a week with Baca at either 9 a.m. or 11 a.m. and threw two to three days a week with his father, Kevin Murray, a renowned quarterbacks coach in the Dallas area.

“It’s been all football all the time, whether it’s working out or throwing or studying film, and so I feel like he’s still going to take some huge strides,” Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury said.

“You think you saw a lot of that progression toward the end of the season and just speaking with him, his confidence level, his understanding of our system is night and day from where it was last year, and so we’re really fired up to get him out there and try to take that next step this season.”

All that put a little more pressure on Baca, who put into action a workout plan designed by the Cardinals’ Morris. The two were in frequent contact all offseason about the quarterback.

– – –

Baca was careful not to mess with one of Murray’s most important weapons. Maintaining Murray’s speed and quickness was both an art and a science. It was a balancing act for Baca to make Murray stronger but not to the point where it made him slower.

One way Baca did that was by using the force-velocity curve when handling Murray’s speed. To maximize speed, Murray lifted lighter weights as fast as he could.

“That’s what keeps the rate of force firing happening,” Baca said. “His fast-twitch muscle fibers, the ones that he was already born with, it keeps those sharp.”

To build his leg strength, Murray used a pit shark, a smaller, shorter machine used for belt squats around the waist instead of a traditional back-loaded bar squat. The pit shark “doesn’t load your spine” and instead allowed Murray to squat with a hip-loaded action.

By lifting lower weights quickly, Murray was able to keep his reps in the four-to-six-second range, which is about the time of an average NFL play. Then his recovery between sets was about 40 seconds — the time of an NFL play clock — so his workouts mirrored what his body would be going through on the field during a game.

But Baca’s best method for keeping Murray fast this offseason was to have him run fast. And to have him run fast a lot.

Depending on the week, Murray would run sprints totaling 100 yards, broken up into about eight sets — so four 15-yard sprints and four 10-yard sprints, for example. Murray intertwined those with what Baca called “tempo runs,” which were longer distances — 50, 60, 70, 80 yards — at 75% to 80% that were focused on working on his stride techniques. He also went through single-leg exercises, plyometrics, hopping, jumping, leaping and bounding workouts with Baca.

The ultimate goal, Baca said, is to make sure Murray will be as fast in the fourth quarter as he is in the first quarter.

– – –

Among the priorities this offseason was to get Murray’s weight up a little, but it wasn’t necessarily his intention to bulk up to the point where it’d become a topic of conversation.

He ended last season somewhere in the 196-to-198-pound range, Baca said, a product of a caloric deficit that most players deal with during a season. The goal was to send Murray back to Arizona for training camp at a weight at which he could afford to lose 10 to 15 pounds during the season and it wouldn’t be an issue.

Baca guessed Murray returned to Arizona weighing around 205 pounds but “looks really big” through functional training. He didn’t gain it the traditional ways, such as bench press or back squatting, Baca said.

“He’s obviously put on some mass, and so he’s bigger, thicker,” Kingsbury said. “I think he understood it’s a long season, you’re going to take a bit of a pounding, and he wanted to bulk up in that area.”

Murray’s teammates noticed when he showed up in Arizona looking bigger. And pass-rusher Chandler Jones understands why.

“Yeah, Kyler is definitely bulked up,” Jones said. “His arms and shoulders look a little bit bigger. He also has a tan. I also make fun of him, ‘You have a tan,’ but Kyler is definitely bulked up, and that’s gonna be good for him, especially in this league.

“There’s no quarterback that doesn’t go through games without getting sacked. That’s just the way it goes. He’s fast, but when he has a little bit more meat on his bones, he can take hits, so that’s going to be good for him.”

“I saw him, and he looked a little buffer,” said safety Budda Baker. “He’s definitely thicker. … He definitely seems faster, stronger arm.”

Murray’s teammates hype him up in the weight room because of his new bulk, wide receiver Christian Kirk said. But they’re also impressed that a quarterback is willing to put his body through that type of weight training.

“It’s good to see him because most quarterbacks aren’t willing to go in there and bench and do biceps and whatnot,” Kirk said. “But he’s all about it. He gets after it in the weight room.”

“I’ve always been a hard worker,” Murray said. “I didn’t try to go in the weight room and put on weight. I think it’s just the maturation of getting older, working out.”

AFC WEST

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

EDGE MELVIN INGRAM wants more money.  Grant Gordon of NFL.com:

Melvin Ingram has been at Los Angeles Chargers practices, but the apparently disgruntled defensive end isn’t participating in them.

Ingram is sitting out of practice due to dismay with his contract situation, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported.

The Athletic first reported the news.

An eight-year pro with three straight Pro Bowl trips, Ingram, 31, is in the final season of his current contract and due $14 million in base salary in 2020 from a four-year pact for $64 million, per Over the Cap.

Under the new collective bargaining agreement, holdouts can directly affect a player’s ability to reach unrestricted free agency as they can prohibit a player from accruing a season needed to reach free agency. In Ingram’s case, however, he has reported and has also avoided any fines, which are mandatory under the new CBA.

Ingram, the No. 18 pick in the 2013 draft, has tallied seven sacks in each of the last two seasons since matching a career-high with 10.5 in 2017. In 2019, he had 48 tackles, seven sacks, five passes defended, 12 quarterback hits and 11 tackles for loss.

This news comes following Ingram’s teammate and fellow defensive end Joey Bosa signing a massive extension.

THIS AND THAT

BROADCAST NEWS

ESPN, at last, confirms that the Monday Night Football booth will be occupied by Steve Levy, Louis Riddick and Brian Griese.

On the first Monday, September 14, Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit will come over from college to call part of the doubleheader.  The backup crew usually does the late game of this pair, but this year Fowler and Herbstreit come out in Eastern primetime.  Chris Cwik of YahooSports.com:

One of the best broadcasting crews in the business is going pro. ESPN’s Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit will make their NFL broadcasting debut during the first “Monday Night Football” game of the season, the network announced Monday.

Fowler and Herbstreit have been ESPN’s top college football broadcasting team the past couple seasons. With the college season in limbo, the pair will get at least one shot at calling an NFL game together. The team will be in the booth when the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the New York Giants on “Monday Night Football” on Sept. 14. That game is the first of a Monday night doubleheader.

ESPN’s new “Monday Night Football” team of Steve Levy, Brian Griese and Louis Riddick will call the second game — which features the Tennessee Titans against the Denver Broncos. ESPN confirmed that crew — which also includes Lisa Salters and John Parry — in a statement Monday.

Fowler, 57, said he was excited to make his NFL debut with Herbstreit. Fowler also mentioned it could be a busy weekend for him.

The “Monday Night Football” game between the Steelers and Giants will take place a day after the U.S. Open. Fowler has called games at the event in the past, and it sounds like he’ll fill that role again. It’s also possible Fowler and Herbstreit will call an ACC game Sept. 12.

THE BEST AND WORST QBs (AT SPECIFIC TASKS)

This from FootballOutsiders.com:

As young, athletic quarterbacks have started to replace the previous generation of pocket passers, it has become clear that traditional passing statistics cannot on their own explain which players do the most and least for their teams. But that realization doesn’t make quarterback evaluation any easier. Quarterback success depends in part on the success of the players on offense around them, the success of their team’s defense and special teams, and the success of the strategies their coaches’ implement. It is difficult to disentangle.

ESPN Stats & Information makes that effort a little bit easier with their expected points added metric. It works by comparing the points a team is expected to score at the start and at the end of their plays based on factors like down and distance, field position and time remaining. It does not split the credit between a quarterback and his receiver for a long touchdown or split the blame between a quarterback and his linemen for a blindside sack. But it does frame every play on the same scale, making it possible to compare a team’s success on plays that involve its quarterback to plays without him on offense — typically runs but also plays with a backup under center — and on defense and special teams. It isn’t perfect, but that approach can help identify real trends that traditional statistics overlook.

By comparing the total EPA of each quarterback’s pass and run attempts to that of his team’s running game, defense and special teams, we have identified the top 10 and bottom 10 quarterbacks in comparative value. Essentially, this is how much value quarterbacks brought in comparison to the rest of their teammates. It is not a raw measurement of “most valuable,” because that measurement would end up with Lamar Jackson No. 1 in 2019. But Jackson shared the spotlight with a good running game, a good defense and good special teams. Someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick emphatically did not.

For our rankings, we included passers who made only 10 or more starts in 2019, which excluded four teams in the Broncos, Lions, Steelers, and Washington Football Team. We’ll start with the players who brought the most comparative value compared to their teammates.

Most comparative value

1. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders

QB EPA: +70.7 (eighth)

Team EPA: -177.1 (27th)

QB comparative value: +247.9

Since Jon Gruden returned to the Raiders, Carr has heard rumors that he would be replaced as the team’s starting quarterback. Apparently, he’s tired of it. Even before his comments, Carr made that point clear with a tremendously efficient 2019 season. He finished top 10 among regular starters with both his 62.2 QBR and 18.2% passing DVOA (DVOA measures efficiency adjusted for situation and opponent, explained further here.). His 6.7-yard average depth of target (aDOT) was bottom five and does back up the scouts who lament that Carr is sometimes unwilling to push the ball to open receivers downfield. But while conservative, Carr’s approach is one that can lead to tremendous success — just look at the Saints, and Drew Brees’ even lower 6.6-yard aDOT. If the Raiders want to make changes to improve their playoff chances in future seasons, they should aim to fix their bottom-10 defense (14.8% DVOA, 31st) and special teams (minus-3.2%, 25th) before they worry about their quarterback.

2. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins

QB EPA: +25.2 (19th)

Team EPA: -213.4 (28th)

QB comparative value: +238.5

3. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

QB EPA: +103.8 (fifth)

Team EPA: -98.3 (23rd)

QB comparative value: +202.1

4. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

QB EPA: +138.9 (third)

Team EPA: -26.2 (12th)

QB comparative value: +165.1

5. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

QB EPA: +140.1 (second)

Team EPA: +2.6 (seventh)

QB comparative value: +137.6

Mahomes is unquestionably the best quarterback in football. Despite a lower volume because of the two games he missed because of a knee injury, Mahomes again finished top three at the position with his 30.0% passing DVOA and 76.3 QBR. But the Chiefs’ success with Mahomes sidelined showed just how talented their roster is.

6. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

QB EPA: +190.6 (first)

Team EPA: +57.4 (third)

QB comparative value: +133.2

Jackson seems more essential to the Ravens than even Mahomes is to the Chiefs. But if GM Eric DeCosta and head coach John Harbaugh and can tailor their roster and strategies to fit their MVP quarterback, then I suspect they could do the same for another player under center. Meanwhile, many of the team’s players who are perfect fits for Jackson’s skill set are also simply great players who would be assets to any team.

T-7. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals

QB EPA: -5.6 (25th)

Team EPA: -135.4 (26th)

QB comparative value: +129.8

On the opposite end of the spectrum from the talented Mahomes and Jackson on their talent-rich teams, Dalton did not play his best in 2019. But the Bengals’ 14-loss season was also clearly not his fault.

T-7. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

QB EPA: +56.8 (13th)

Team EPA: -72.9 (19th)

QB comparative value: +129.8

However you want to measure quarterback effectiveness, Ryan has been unable to duplicate the success of his 2016 MVP season. But the steady decline of his efficiency from 39.1% DVOA and 79.6 QBR that season to 7.0% and 57.6 last season and the team’s decline from 11 to seven wins says more about the talent around Ryan than Ryan himself.

9. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

QB EPA: +62.6 (11th)

Team EPA: -57.3 (17th)

QB comparative value: +119.9

10. Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers

QB EPA: +53.5 (14th)

Team EPA: -61.1 (18th)

QB comparative value: +114.6

Least comparative value

1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots

QB EPA: +28.2 (18th)

Team EPA: +166.8 (first)

QB comparative value: -138.6

The quality of Brady’s play has slipped in recent seasons. He might be able to blame his decade-low 60.8% completion percentage and 2.4% DVOA on a lack of receiving talent in New England last season. But his yearly decline from a 73.9% accuracy percentage in 2015 to 72.7% in 2016, 72.1% in 2017, 70.4% in 2018, and 66.9% in 2019 probably captures the skill decline one would expect of a quarterback who has entered his 40s. That said, Brady was far from a bad passer last season. His placement at the bottom of this list reflects the Patriots’ otherworldly defensive talent (minus-25.5% DVOA, first) that would make almost any quarterback seem worse by comparison. That talent distribution is what makes the Patriots’ transition to a new quarterback starter so fascinating for 2020. Unfortunately, the team’s free-agency losses of defensive starters Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins were exacerbated by the opt-out losses of Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung. They still have their elite secondary, but the 2020 Patriots’ defense could be dramatically worse than the 2019 edition.

2. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers

QB EPA: +70.5 (ninth)

Team EPA: +98.3 (second)

QB comparative value: -27.8

GM John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan have engineered a team in San Francisco that probably could succeed with any competent quarterback.

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

QB EPA: +19.2 (20th)

Team EPA: +36.2 (fourth)

QB comparative value: -17.0

Allen made major strides in his sophomore season, but even his marked improvement from a minus-35.9% to a minus-11.8% passing DVOA couldn’t pull him out of the bottom 10 quarterbacks in passing efficiency.

4. Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears

QB EPA: -14.2 (27th)

Team EPA: -3.6 (10th)

QB comparative value: -10.8

5. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles

QB EPA: +38.8 (16th)

Team EPA: -8.4 (11th)

QB comparative value: +47.2

6. Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

QB EPA: -1.2 (23rd)

Team EPA: -56.5 (16th)

QB comparative value: +55.4

7. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

QB EPA: +81.1 (sixth)

Team EPA: +22.7 (fifth)

QB comparative value: +58.4

8. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

QB EPA: +63.0 (10th)

Team EPA: -0.6 (eighth)

QB comparative value: +63.6

9. Sam Darnold, New York Jets

QB EPA: -5.2 (24th)

Team EPA: -78.3 (20th)

QB comparative value: +73.1

10. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

QB EPA: +73.8 (seventh)

Team EPA: -2.9 (ninth)

QB comparative value: +76.6

Most accurate

In 2019, Drew Brees became the second quarterback in NFL history to complete 74% of his passes in a single season, joining only … Drew Brees from 2018. In fact, Brees has five of the six highest completion percentages on record, as he has turned the short, accurate passing game into an art form in its own right.

He’s not alone, however; NFL teams are completing passes at rates higher than ever before. When Brees entered the league in 2001, teams completed just 59% of their passes. Last season, teams completed 64% of their passes, as the short, lower-risk passing game becomes more and more popular. This leaves us with a couple of problems when using raw completion percentage to compare players. An astonishing number a generation ago can seem downright pedestrian by modern standards; passers are simply expected to complete more passes nowadays than they were a generation ago. Degree of difficulty also starts muddying the waters. Was Brees’ 74% completion rate, on a steady diet of short, high-percentage plays, really better than Ryan Tannehill’s 70% completion rate on passes thrown more than three yards further downfield on average?

To help answer these questions, Football Outsiders has been using game-charting data since 2006 to create a stat called passing plus-minus, which estimates how many passes a quarterback completed compared to what an average quarterback would have completed based on each throw’s distance, the yards needed for a first down, and to which side of the field the pass was thrown.

This is turned into a rate stat: completion percentage over expected, or CPOE, that shows just how much more accurate a passer is than league average, adjusted for the situations the passer found himself in. Note that our CPOE might be different from other models found elsewhere on the internet because we’re removing passes thrown away on purpose, batted down at the line or thrown when the quarterback was hit in motion.

Here are the 10 most accurate QBs from the 2019 season by CPOE:

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

CPOE: +8.5%

Take out throwaways and tipped passes, and Brees completed 79.8% of his passes in 2019; an average quarterback would have been expected to complete just 71.3%. For most quarterbacks, that would be a career-best number, but for Brees, it’s just another year on a Hall of Fame résumé. He had a plus-6.1% CPOE for the entire 2010s; no one else topped plus-3.6%. Our database goes back to 2006, and Brees is the top performer there, too, with his plus-5.6% CPOE beating Kurt Warner’s plus-5.1% to take the top spot. It’s not just racking up completions on easy, quick routes, either; last year, Brees had a CPOE of plus-8.6% on passes traveling at least 10 yards in the air, second best in the league. Even as he enters his 40s, Brees remains the most accurate passer of the 21st century.

2. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

CPOE: +7.7%

Tannehill’s career revival in Tennessee is both a career outlier and not entirely out of the blue.

3. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

CPOE: +6.2%

4. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders

CPOE: +6.1%

5. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

CPOE: +4.9%

6. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

CPOE: +3.2%

7. Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers

CPOE: +2.9%

8. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

CPOE: +2.7%

Mahomes makes the impossible look easy. On plays with an expected completion percentage of 50.0% or less, Mahomes completed 51.7% of his passes, good for a plus-16.5% CPOE. That was second highest in the league, just behind Jimmy Garoppolo, but Mahomes had 58 such targets and Garoppolo just 35. No quarterback created more value out of low-percentage throws than Mahomes did in 2019. The flip side is that his CPOE on throws with an expected completion percentage above 50% was just plus-0.7%, 16th in the league, and he had a negative CPOE on passes that traveled between 0 and 9 yards through the air. If he can ever recalibrate his howitzer to hit the short stuff as well as he hits the deep stuff, he might just make it in the NFL.

9. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

CPOE: +2.6%

10. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

CPOE: +2.4%

Least accurate

The least accurate quarterbacks of 2019 form a motley list, filled with rookies struggling to find their footing, backups forced into action by necessity, and players who lost their starting job for 2020. Oh, and one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, too.

1. Dwayne Haskins, Washington

CPOE: -6.7%

We have two pieces of optimism for Haskins going forward. Yes, Haskins’ CPOE was worst in the league, but minus-6.7% is a pretty decent number for “worst in the league.” The last time the league’s worst CPOE was better than that was Brandon Weeden’s minus-5.7% in 2013. Haskins is last because no one was extraordinarily terrible last season. In addition, Haskins’ CPOE improved as the season went along, going from minus-10.9% in his first 100 attempts to minus-1.9% in his last 90. Haskins needs to improve dramatically in Year 2, but at least we saw progress toward the end of a tumultuous rookie season.

2. Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville Jaguars

CPOE: -4.0%

Proven: Exceptional mustaches do not bring with them tremendous accuracy. Minshew’s minus-6.4% CPOE on short passes was the worst in the league, though he did manage a plus-8.4% CPOE when asked to throw deep. For the record, Nick Foles provided the opposite skill set, with a plus-6.2% CPOE short and a minus-12.1% CPOE deep, for a total of plus-2.4% CPOE. If only the Jaguars could have used them to their respective strengths. Does anyone know how Foles would look with a false mustache?

3. Tom Brady, New England Patriots

CPOE: -3.8%

One of these things is not like the others …

While Brady’s accuracy was slightly better than that of Haskins or Minshew, he threw 130 more passes than either one, meaning he ended up dead last in passing plus-minus, the counting version of this stat. Brady was simply not on the same page as his receivers; his minus-5.1% CPOE to wideouts put him ahead of Andy Dalton. He struggled with what should be his easiest throws: On passes thrown five yards downfield or less, he had a minus-4.7% CPOE…This is not a death sentence; Brett Favre had the worst plus-minus in the league in 2006 and went on to make the Pro Bowl in his next three seasons. But Brady’s accuracy and rapport with his receivers need to improve if the Buccaneers are going to meet their high expectations for 2020.

4. Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears

CPOE: -3.7%

After popping to just above average in 2018, Trubisky matched his rookie mark in CPOE last season. Matt Nagy and the Bears coaches made things as easy as possible for Trubisky, giving him the easiest throws of his career; his expected completion percentage was 70.3%. Trubisky still could not deliver. His worst numbers came in the most crucial situations: a minus-4.5% CPOE on third down, a minus-8.2% CPOE in the fourth quarter, a minus-6.2% CPOE on deep passes, all at or near the worst marks in the league. In his career, Trubisky has been most accurate throwing to his tight ends, which might explain why the Bears added roughly one thousand of them in the offseason. It’s one last attempt to see Trubisky realize his potential.

5. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals

CPOE: -3.7%

6. Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

CPOE: -2.8%

7. Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis Colts

CPOE: -2.6%

T-8. Daniel Jones, New York Giants

CPOE: -2.4%

Jones ended up with the second-best CPOE among rookies, though there was a significant gap between him and Kyler Murray at plus-0.5%. Jones had a confidence that his arm couldn’t always match; he had a minus-5.6% CPOE on throws 10 or more yards downfield, with below-expected accuracy to every intended receiver with 10 or more targets. We appreciate the urge to gamble, but Jones was far better getting the ball out on quick drops than when he embraced his inner gunslinger.

T-8. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

CPOE: -2.4%

10. Case Keenum, Washington

CPOE: -1.5%

Most aggressive

Football Outsiders created a metric called ALEX to measure quarterbacks’ aggressiveness on third downs. (Yes, of course, Alex Smith had something to do with it.) ALEX stands for “air yards less expected,” and measures the average difference between a quarterback’s pass depth and the yards he needs to gain on third down to create a new first down. The league’s ALEX had actually been on a downward trend the past few seasons before rising to plus-1.9 in 2019, up from plus-1.1 in 2018.

The most aggressive quarterback in 2018, Patrick Mahomes, actually tumbled off the top 10 list in 2019. Some of that undoubtedly has to do with the ankle (and later knee) injuries that befell the Super Bowl MVP, but another factor is Mahomes’ average intended air yards falling from 9.2 in his MVP year to 8.6 last season. That doesn’t sound like a huge drop, but 9.2 would have put him in the top 10 in 2019; 8.6 put him in a four-way tie for 12th.

So instead, our most aggressive quarterback on third down is a man who is no stranger to the top of these leaderboards:

1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: +4.1 ALEX

Rodgers has finished in the top five in ALEX each of the past five seasons, and even in an extremely down 2019 season on the whole, he still managed to be ultra aggressive on third down. However, his efficiency was way, way down overall on those third-down throws, as he found just 5.6% DVOA on them. (DVOA measures efficiency adjusted for situation and opponent, explained further here.) He completed just 47 first downs or touchdowns on 140 total attempts that didn’t involve Davante Adams. The Packers looked at this, and then decided to do nothing about it, so tough luck, Aaron. Jordan Love will listen to your anger on the bench.

2. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins: +4.0 ALEX

3. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: +3.7 ALEX.

4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: +3.4 ALEX

5. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: +3.0 ALEX

6. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: +2.9 ALEX

7. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles: +2.7 ALEX

8. Sam Darnold, New York Jets: +2.5 ALEX

9. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: +2.5 ALEX

Traditionally not a big deep passer, Ryan actually finished with negative ALEX in his MVP season in 2016. He hadn’t had an ALEX above 2.0 since 2014 — which, not so coincidentally, was also the last time Dirk Koetter coordinated the Atlanta offense before being hired by Tampa Bay

10. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: +2.3 ALEX

Least aggressive

1. Teddy Bridgewater, New Orleans Saints: -1.4 ALEX

Bridgewater, of course, hasn’t been a qualified starter (minimum 200 passes) for a long time since his devastating preseason knee injury in 2016. But when he was a starter in 2014 and 2015, this was part of the normal game plan for him. Bridgewater carried a minus-0.7 ALEX in 2015, and a minus-0.8 ALEX in 2014, finishing ahead of only Alex Smith and Blaine Gabbert among qualified starters in both seasons. But part of last year’s number was a general predilection to throwing short on the part of the entire Saints offense; nobody had a lower average depth of target than Bridgewater last season, at 6.2. Bridgewater’s average actually increased to 6.9 intended air yards on third-down targets. The 0.9% DVOA, however, wasn’t great. The Panthers will want to make sure Joe Brady’s offense offers a lot of Christian McCaffrey underneath targets on third down in 2020.

2. Case Keenum, Washington: -1.3 ALEX

3. Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis Colts: -0.3 ALEX

4. Joe Flacco, Denver Broncos: -0.3 ALEX

5. Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh Steelers: -0.2 ALEX

6. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers: -0.1 ALEX

7. Dwayne Haskins Jr., Washington: +0.2 ALEX

8. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: +0.7 ALEX

9. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: +0.8 ALEX

10. Tom Brady, New England Patriots: +1.0 ALEX