NFC EAST

NEW YORK GIANTS

Oh my.  Could the Giants land TE Rob Gronkowski?  Michael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com:

Retired tight end Rob Gronkowski recently said that if there’s one coach who could convince him to un-retire, it would be Giants head coach Brian Daboll. But Daboll downplayed any talk that Gronkowski might actually come back and play for the Giants.

Daboll was asked about Gronkowski’s comments and said the two have been close since Daboll’s stint as the Patriots’ tight ends coach from 2013 to 2016. But Daboll also said not to read much into anything Gronkowski says about playing again.

“I’m close with Rob,” Daboll said. “I have a lot of respect, admiration. I coached him for four years. He’s a good friend. We’ve talked — I’m not saying we’ve talked about that but he’s a close friend. When you coach someone for four years and he’s a very productive player for you and really a good person — we’re from the same town. I wouldn’t read too much into that.”

The 34-year-old Gronkowski first announced his retirement in 2019, when he was just 29 years old. After sitting out the 2019 season, he un-retired in 2020 and the Patriots traded him to the Buccaneers. Gronkowski played two years in Tampa but retired again in 2022 and did not play last season.

Gronkowski had played out his contract with the Buccaneers at the time he retired, meaning that if he un-retires, he’s a free agent who can sign with any team. That team could be the Giants, but the more likely scenario is that Gronkowski played his last NFL game in the Buccaneers’ playoff loss in January of 2022.

– – –

Jeff Kerr of CBSSports.com doesn’t think that 4,000 pass yards is a realistic aspiration for QB DANIEL JONES.

Daniel Jones will throw for 4,000 yards this season

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Jones certainly has a better collection of weapons on the New York Giants this season, as evidenced in this past week’s preseason game. He finished 8 of 9 for 89 yards and a touchdown (a 4-yard pass to Daniel Bellinger), yet it was what his pass-catchers were able to do that showcased Jones will be able to be more aggressive in 2023.

Darren Waller is a massive upgrade at tight end, while Jalin Hyatt showed his the downfield threat the wide receiver group lacked last year. Parris Campbell is reliable in the slot and Isaiah Hodgins remains consistent. Darius Slayton is still a solid receiver while Jamison Crowder  and Sterling Shepard provide excellent depth. Wan’Dale Robinson is also a promising wideout from last season returning from injury.

Why can’t Jones throw for 4,000 yards? Last year was arguably his best season and Jones only averaged 200.3 passing yards per game on a career-high 6.8 yards per attempt. Unless Brian Daboll makes significant changes to his offense to favor Jones, the quarterback likely won’t be putting up those numbers.

Jones would also have to play all 17 games and average 235.3 pass yards per game to accomplish the feat, the latter he’s never done (Jones would have played all 17 games if the Giants didn’t clinch a playoff berth prior to the final week). This all comes down to how Daboll uses Saquon Barkley, but 4,000 passing yards is a stretch for Jones until his head coach proves otherwise.

Not turning the football over and winning games is more important anyway.

If he had played the 17^th game last year, Jones would have thrown for about 3,400 yards.  We don’t think 4,000 is that big a stretch.

NFC SOUTH

TAMPA BAY

And, the Bucs have named their starting quarterback.  Jenna Laine of ESPN.com:

With one preseason game to go, Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles named Baker Mayfield the starting quarterback for the 2023 season, filling the very large shoes of Tom Brady.

Mayfield, the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft who has had stints with the Browns, Rams and Panthers, beat out 2021 second-round draft pick Kyle Trask.

General manager Jason Licht, Bowles and offensive coordinator Dave Canales all acknowledged that carrying on a lengthy quarterback competition so deep into camp would mean less reps for the eventual starter, but the Bucs felt it was necessary to give Trask a true opportunity to compete after two years behind Brady and Blaine Gabbert.

Trask showed significant improvement from mandatory minicamp to training camp in his accuracy and fundamentals, his grasp of Canales’ new offense, and in his decision-making. At one point he was even outplaying Mayfield in practices.

But Mayfield’s experience, having started 69 regular-season games, including a 48-37 playoff win over the Pittsburgh Steelers when he was with the Cleveland Browns, prevailed.

Mayfield started the first preseason game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, while Trask started the second.

Mayfield appeared more in control and had better command of the offense this preseason. In the first preseason game, he completed 8 of 9 passes for 63 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions.

In two preseason games — including nearly an entire second preseason game due to third-stringer John Wolford’s injury, Trask completed 26 of 38 passes for 317 yards, a touchdown and an interception. He also fumbled against the Jets on a sack Saturday night, but it was recovered by tight end Cade Otton.

Mayfield signed with the Bucs this offseason on a one-year deal worth $4 million, with incentives that push it to $8.5 million. The hope is that he can get his career back on track while helping the cash-strapped Bucs avoid a major drop-off after Brady’s retirement.

NFC WEST

SEATTLE

Wrist surgery for rookie WR JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA – but he may not be out too long.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

One of Seattle’s key rookies suffered an injury during Saturday’s preseason game against Dallas.

First-round receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba will undergo wrist surgery in Philadelphia on Tuesday, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN. Smith-Njigba broke a bone in his wrist while making a 48-yard catch in the second quarter of the contest.

Schefter notes that there is still a chance Smith-Njigba will be ready to play in the Seahawks’ season opener against the Rams on Sept. 10. But the surgery will determine how much time the rookie receiver has to miss.

Smith-Njigba, the No. 20 overall pick in 2023, has made some impressive plays during the first two preseason games, catching six passes for 83 yards.

He’s one of two players Seattle drafted in the first round this year, the other being cornerback Devon Witherspoon at No. 5 overall.

AFC WEST

LAS VEGAS

RB JOSH JACOBS is now expected to report and play on the tender.  Vinny Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal:

Disgruntled Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs has been sitting out of camp over his inability to secure a long-term contract with the team.

Jacobs is expected to report to the team before their season opener according to Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal.  This per multiple sources.

The team will begin the season on Sunday September 10th at Denver.

He would either play on the $10.1 million franchise tag or a one-season salary like Giants gave Saquon Barkley.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

With an atmosphere as exciting as preseason gets, the Ravens saw their amazing preseason win streak come to an end at 24 on Monday night.  As Jamison Hensley ofESPN.com points out, the Commanders won on a last second field goal on a night that Baltimore sat most prominent players:

One of the most peculiar NFL records — or “stupid” if you ask the irreverent Washington Commanders — came to a close in dramatic and emotional fashion.

The Baltimore Ravens’ 24-game preseason win streak ended Monday night in a 29-28 loss to the Commanders, who erupted in celebration on the field and on the sideline.

Joey Slye’s 49-yard field goal with 9 seconds remaining handed Baltimore its first loss in the preseason since 2015, which was three years before the team drafted Lamar Jackson. The winning drive was kept alive when Ravens cornerback Corey Mayfield Jr. was called for pass interference on fourth-and-11 with 1:04 left in the game.

“The thing about something like that — I just told our guys — you’re proud of it and you appreciate it,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. “But the thing that you’re proud of is all those games are mostly like that.”

Harbaugh later added, “It’s one of these things you look at and you go, ‘Wow, how did that happen? How did something like that take place?’ It’s pretty remarkable. What are the odds?”

Last week, Washington guard Sam Cosmi mocked Baltimore’s August dominance. “It’s a stupid record,” he told NBC Sports Washington.

Cosmi, who celebrated one Commanders touchdown by performing The Griddy in the end zone, declined to talk to reporters in the locker room.

Commanders wide receiver Jahan Dotson reveled in beating the regional rival Ravens, who play 29 miles up the interstate.

“I was sitting in bed watching ESPN all day, and all you could hear about is this streak, the streak,” Dotson said. “So I feel like we just had the biggest preseason W in history. It was definitely pretty cool knowing what they had on the line that we could end that.”

Even Earvin “Magic” Johnson, who is part of the Commanders’ new ownership group, weighed in after the game, writing on X, formerly known as Twitter, “I know it’s only preseason but the Commanders victory over the Ravens to end their NFL preseason win streak was a lot of fun for Commanders fans!”

It was a mismatch throughout the game in terms of pedigree. The Ravens sat their top two quarterbacks — Jackson and Tyler Huntley — and played their second- and third-string players for the entire game. The Commanders went with their starting quarterback Sam Howell and their first-team offense for the whole first half.

Asked if it looked like the Commanders were motivated to win, Harbaugh said: “I don’t want to get into all of that. People say what they say. Obviously, it was meaningful to them. I saw them celebrating over there. More power to them. Congratulations. They won a hard-fought football game. They deserve it in the end to celebrate.”

Washington’s win came a few days after the teams had two joint practices, which included a couple of “dust-ups.”

“It’s not a real game but at the same time whatever team you’re on you want to win, especially knowing what they had on the other side with their little streak,” Howell said. “That last two-minute drive they were running Cover 0 every single play and we were trying to take shots down the field, so it was so much fun to watch and be a part of.”

Decimated by injuries in the secondary, Baltimore could not hold off Washington in the closing moments. Third-string quarterback Jake Fromm marched the Commanders 60 yards on 14 plays to set up an improbable ending.

Slye, who in the regular season is 0-for-4 on tying or go-ahead field goals in the final two minutes of regulation or overtime, hit the winning kick through the uprights.

“It’s definitely strange because it’s been talked about so much,” said Ravens kicker Justin Tucker, who is one of two players to be a part of the Ravens for the entire streak. “It’s one of those things that we understand what the preseason means, but every single time we take the field, we want to win. We want to play well. At the end of the day, it’s not necessarily going to be recorded as some dramatic loss. But what really matters is playing well in the regular season.”

When Slye converted the winning kick, he flashed an “L” with this fingers toward his sideline before jumping in the arms of a teammate. The Commanders sideline threw arms up in a raucous celebration.

“I don’t care about their team. I care about ours,” Tucker said. “I will leave it at that.”

Now, the NFL’s longest active preseason win streak belongs to the Las Vegas Raiders, who have won six in a row.

PITTSBURGH

Preseason flash RB JAYLEN WARREN will NOT be Pittsburgh’s primary back.  At least not to start the season.

Jaylen Warren, fresh off of a solid rookie season, is having a good training camp, good enough that some on the outside feel that there’s a possible position battle brewing in Pittsburgh between Warren and starting running back Najee Harris.

When asked about a possible change in the division of labor among the Steelers’ running backs, offensive coordinator Matt Canada made it clear that Harris’ status in the offense hasn’t changed, even if his workload might.

“I think that Najee’s our one. There’s no doubt about that,” Canada said. “And I mean, I think we’re protecting him to get him to that point. … I’m never going to lock ourselves into any kind of what it’s going to be or how it’s going to go. I don’t think that’s fair to anybody. But that’s certainly, we’re planning on Najee being Najee, you know, when we start the regular season.”

Harris, a 1,000-yard rusher each of his first two seasons in Pittsburgh, had just two carries for 6 yards in the Steelers’ preseason wins over Tampa Bay and Buffalo. Warren has four carries for 75 yards this preseason that includes his 62-yard touchdown run against the Bills. Canada confirmed that Harris’ reduced workload, both in games as well as in practices this summer, is part of a bigger plan.

“A lot of it is keeping him fresh for the season,” he said. “You look at what we asked Naj to do the last couple years. I mean, you guys talked about it after his (rookie season), right? How many touches he had, how many times he was on the field, the amount of plays, and all of those things. And last year, you know, we reference after the bye a lot, we ran the football quite a bit and Naj was a big, big part of it. Not that Jaylen wasn’t.

“Your body can take so much. We feel like he’s done a lot. And we’re going to continue to want to get him to the show and get him ready to go play for us. And so, it’s been a systematic plan to keep him upright and at the same time getting ready to play. And that’s a fine balance for everybody.”

AFC SOUTH

INDIANAPOLIS

RB JONATHAN TAYLOR will be allowed to seek a trade – on the Colts terms.  Can he get a McCaffrey deal in compensation from his new team?  Stephen Holder ofESPN.com:

All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor has been granted permission by the Indianapolis Colts to seek a trade, league sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Monday.

But the Colts will be seeking significant trade compensation for Taylor, according to separate sources. The team is looking for a first-round draft pick or a collection of picks that equates to one, the sources said.

While no offer had materialized as of Monday evening, teams are weighing what fair value looks like in a potential deal for Taylor, the 2021 NFL rushing champion. Additionally, interested teams will need to consider whether they’re willing to sign Taylor to the contract extension he is seeking.

The parties involved are looking to settle a three-week standoff that began when Taylor reported to training camp on July 25. Taylor, who is entering the final year of his rookie contract, has long been seeking a long-term contract extension. The Colts, meanwhile, have shown no willingness to do a deal, raising concerns on Taylor’s part that staying in Indianapolis might result in him receiving the franchise tag before he hits the open market in the spring. Owner Jim Irsay told ESPN last month that the team had made no contract offer to Taylor. That became a major source of irritation for Taylor, sources said.

Taylor, 24, complained of issues associated with his surgically repaired right ankle when he arrived for camp and failed his pre-camp physical, sources said. He was then placed on the physically unable to perform list, where he remains. Taylor has not practiced with the Colts since being placed on injured reserve in December.

In the weeks since then, the relationship between Taylor and the Colts has devolved. That includes a tweet from Irsay that prompted a reply from Taylor’s agent and an unproductive meeting between Irsay and Taylor that played out in the middle of a Colts practice. Taylor has twice left training camp in recent weeks, first to seek outside therapy on his right ankle and then last week to attend to a personal matter.

Taylor requested a trade on the day he reported to camp, a request that Irsay publicly denied on July 29. But behind the scenes, the idea of a trade was never really tabled at Colts headquarters. Taylor never rescinded his trade request, hoping the team would have a change of heart.

As a point of reference, Christian McCaffrey — another elite running back — was traded from the Carolina Panthers to San Francisco 49ers last season for second-, third- and fourth-round picks in 2023 and a fifth-round choice in 2024.

Taylor has a combined 3,841 rushing yards since entering the league three years ago in 2020. His league-high 1,811 rushing yards in 2021 set a Colts franchise record, as did his 18 rushing touchdowns that season.

South Florida media is saying that the Dolphins are primed to “explore” a trade for Taylor.  This from longtime Miami media maven Barry Jackson:

@flasportsbuzz

Per a league source, the Dolphins are expected to at least explore a trade for Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, who has been given permission to seek a trade. Not sure where this will lead, but it would make sense in that he’s only 24, 1st team All Pro & NFL rush leader in ’21

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com has two other possible takers:

Beyond the Dolphins, it’s hard to find a team that would make the move. On Tuesday’s PFT Live, we identified two possibilities. Chris Simms pegged the Chargers, and I flagged the Eagles.

Yes, the Chargers have Austin Ekeler. He could be included in the deal, however, helping the Colts replace Taylor. Unfortunately for the Colts, Ekeler is due to make more than Taylor and, like Taylor, he’s in the final year of his contract.

The Eagles make sense to monitor because they always seem to be lurking, and because they currently don’t have a clear-cut, high-end tailback. No one knew they were exploring a trade for receiver A.J. Brown until it happened. Maybe Taylor will be viewed as the guy who can help them fend off the 49ers and Christian McCaffrey, and in turn take down the eventual AFC champion.

Also, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni knows Taylor well. Sirianni was the offensive coordinator in Indianapolis during Taylor’s rookie year in Indianapolis.

It’s still more likely that no one will want to make the move at this stage of the offseason. Again, it should have happened in March.

Then again, Ekeler got permission to shop himself in March and found no takers then. While Taylor is younger and better, it might be impossible to find a team that will satisfy both the Colts and Taylor, and then reconfigure their offense to get an immediate return on their investment.

But Florio challenges a team to show some respect to Taylor:

The running back market has become depressed for a variety of reasons. Some wonder whether collusion resides at the heart of it.

The truth seems to be that teams simply don’t value the position as they once did, given the ready supply of younger, cheaper, and healthier players at the same position — and given the manner in which aging running backs with big contracts struggle to justify the investment.

But here’s Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, suddenly available in trade. The Colts, who don’t want to give him the contract he has earned, nevertheless value him sufficiently to expect a first-round pick for his contractual rights. Will a team that sees Taylor as a potential difference maker make the move?

The real question is whether a team will make the financial investment that could reinvigorate the market at the position. In an offseason that saw the best free-agent deal come in at $6.35 million per year (Miles Sanders, to Carolina), would a team — in late August — reset the market or come close to it for Taylor?

If someone will, there likely will be a price to pay on the back end. Look at the reaction to the contract the Browns gave quarterback Deshaun Watson as part of the trade that brought him to Cleveland. The Browns blew out the curve, prompting other owners to look disapprovingly at what Jimmy Haslam did.

At a time when the oligarchs have running backs collectively on the run thanks to the structure of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, what will be the blowback to an owner who would give Taylor a contract that resuscitates a comatose collection of contracts?

It’s one of the very real factors to consider as Taylor tries — at the eleventh hour of the offseason — to find a team that will give the Colts what they want, and that will give Taylor what he wants. Unless he’s willing to take something less than what he’d like to get, he quite possibly won’t get an offer he’d be willing to accept.

Because it’s quite possible that no owner will want to become a pariah for paying big money to a running back at a time when no one is.

Will Brinson of CBSSports.com is not impressed – and he says the fault lies with owner Jim Irsay:

The Indianapolis Colts appear primed to waste yet another superstar’s career, acquiescing to Jonathan Taylor’s request for a trade by allowing the running back to seek out possible trade partners interested in landing the former rushing leader. This isn’t to the level of malpractice and negligence that occurred with Andrew Luck’s career. But it still emphasizes the most concerning thing about the Colts’ current operation: owner Jim Irsay is pulling all the strings.

Irsay being in charge is nothing new and an NFL owner impressing their will upon a football roster and front office is hardly breaking news. But this is no ordinary NFL owner we’re talking about here.

Despite sporting a 55 percent career winning percentage in his Indy tenure, Frank Reich found himself fired after Week 9 of last season by Irsay, who proceeded to not only replace Reich with Jeff Saturday — an ESPN analyst with zero coaching experience above the high school level — but also brag about Reich’s head-coaching record during the presser announcing Saturday’s hire.

Again, the Taylor situation is different. But it’s pretty emblematic of a larger systematic problem for this organization right now. You can trace these issues back to the Carson Wentz “debacle” of 2021. A year after making the playoffs with Philip Rivers, the Colts dealt high draft capital to the Eagles for the former No. 2 overall pick. A Week 18 egg cost Indy another postseason berth and Irsay held it over Reich’s head in a very personal fashion. When the Colts struggled with Matt Ryan under center, he cut bait.

Since then, it’s clear Irsay’s imprint is all over every single decision this organization makes. Anthony Richardson going No. 4 overall was reasonable but it was clear Irsay gave the front office a firm edict to draft a quarterback, regardless of who was available. It was also clear Irsay said to start Richardson in Week 1 regardless of whether the rookie is ready or not.

Also quite clear? The Colts better take a hard-line stance with Taylor. Irsay recently conceded the organization hasn’t even exchanged contractual numbers. When Taylor requested a trade, Irsay provided some public comments that — quite understandably — didn’t sit very well with his star running back.

“If I die tonight and Jonathan Taylor is out of the league, no one’s gonna miss us,” Irsay said earlier this offseason, via The Athletic. “The league goes on. We know that. The National Football [League] rolls on. It doesn’t matter who comes and who goes, and it’s a privilege to be a part of it.”

An NFL owner has no business saying that about a franchise-caliber player and a former second-round pick on his rookie contract. It’s disrespectful and it only serves to alienate players on the roster. The Colts owner would be much better served spending his time playing guitar than playing fantasy football.

Irsay also pointed out how the current Collective Bargaining Agreement should prevent these contractual issues: “These days you hope you have less contractual problems because the way the CBA is and they work a lot of things through.” He’s not *wrong* per se, but he’s not really right either: the CBA shouldn’t have any impact on Taylor’s ability to request a better contract from his employer, it just prevents him from fully holding out. Welcome to the era of the Hold IN!

A lengthy diatribe on the matter from Irsay also provided accidentally blunt insight into the thought process of NFL management. Many teams are willing to chew up and spit out running backs on cheap rookie contracts before replacing them with someone else on a rookie contract. That’s fine but, again, there’s no need to disrespect Taylor repeatedly in this process.

Particularly when the Colts are trying to groom and develop a rookie quarterback under the tutelage of a first-year head coach in Shane Steichen. An elite bellcow running back would go a LONG way towards helping Richardson’s development, especially when Richardson’s ability to run would emphasize and complement Taylor’s game perfectly, while simultaneously making life easier for the offensive line in a new scheme and system.

Giving Taylor what amounts to a three-year deal (disguised in typical NFL fashion as a five-year deal) with loads of incentives and guaranteed money up front for the next two years would line him up perfectly with Richardson’s rookie contract. If you’re going to spend on a running back, do it while your quarterback is on his rookie deal. That’s not bad and might even be good business!

Making matters worse is what the Colts want in terms of compensation for Taylor. Despite spending the entire offseason telling us the running back position is devalued and Taylor could be “out of the league” and no one would care or notice and it would be insane to pay Taylor significant money on a long-term deal, Indianapolis wants a first-round pick in return.

Essentially Irsay spent the whole summer telling Taylor he’s not worth what he thinks he’s worth and now is trying to tell 31 other NFL teams Taylor’s worth way more than Irsay’s been saying he’s worth. None of it makes any sense, which is perfectly par for the course in Indianapolis these days.

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

Stephen A. Smith has a source that caused consternation among Bills Mafia.  Dan Zaksheske of http://Outkick.com, with a denial from WR STEFON DIGGS at the end.

Noted ESPN NFL Insider Stephen A. Smith decided to drop a bombshell on Monday’s edition of First Take. During a segment about the AFC East — and whether the Jets are now the team to beat — Smith claims, seemingly out of nowhere, that Stefon Diggs wants out of the Buffalo Bills organization.

“Brother wants out, by the way, I’m just telling you what I know,” Smith said about Diggs’ desires.

“I have my sources. Stefon Diggs [has] to be there but he would prefer to be gone because he’s lost a level of belief in the Buffalo Bills.

“That’s right, I said it! This is Stephen A., baby. I’m telling you what I know.”

Alrighty then. Stephen A. Smith has “sources” that say Stefon Diggs wants out of Buffalo.

This is very easy for him to say. He couches the entire commentary by saying that the team and Diggs are going to deny it. And that Diggs is going to play for the team this year.

It’s impossible to prove Stephen A. Smith wrong here. Therein lies the genius in his commentary. Sure, maybe someone told him Diggs wants out.

But it’s hard to believe that Stephen A. Smith has a ton of great NFL “sources.” This is the guy who said last year that Jalen Reagor needed to have a big year for the Philadelphia Eagles to be good.

Except, they had just traded him to Minnesota. And the Eagles did OK without him.

Later that same week, he picked the Chargers to score the most points out of any AFC West team that week. He also picked the Raiders to win. The Chargers and Raiders played against one another.

Maybe he’s right, maybe he’s wrong.

But at this point, it doesn’t even matter.

He’s Stephen A. Smith, baby.

UPDATE: Since this story was posted, Stefon Diggs took to X, formerly known as Twitter, to officially deny Smith’s claims.

@stefondiggs

100% not true. I don’t know who the source 😒 is but I thought i nip this shit in the bud already.

@stefondiggs

Rocking wit my dawgs… Bills mafia ❤️💙 through and through !!!

MIAMI

QB MIKE WHITE is concussed.  Mike Florio sees an opportunity for QB SKYLAR THOMPSON who played well last week:

The lingering durability questions surrounding Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa make it critical that the team has a competent backup quarterback.

In the offseason, the Dolphins gave $4.5 million guaranteed to veteran Mike White, making him the presumed No. 2. With White now in the concussion protocol and with second-year seventh-rounder Skylar Thompson looking pretty good against the Texans on Saturday, it’s fair to ask whether Thompson might leapfrog White.

White has the second spot on the unofficial preseason depth chart. But Thompson, who helped the Dolphins make things interesting in the playoffs against the Bills, looked good in Houston, completing 15 of 22 passes for 157 yards and three touchdowns.

The Dolphins presumably will keep all three on the 53-man roster, just as they kept three in 2022, when Teddy Bridgewater was the backup.

Tua emerged from his preseason debut unscathed, at one point showing what could be his new ability to fall to the ground in a way that protects his head from striking the turf. Last year, he suffered at least two — and more likely three — concussions when his helmet struck the turf during games.

THIS AND THAT

BILL BARNWELL’S RISERS

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com identifies four teams he thinks will surge in 2023.  We wonder if he has either Atlanta or Carolina on his list.

It’s time for one of my favorite columns of the year, when I pick NFL teams with the best chances of improving their records this season. I’m using my trusty predictive metrics from previous years and have some new concepts to introduce. I’ll hit the four teams most likely to decline in 2023 on Wednesday, so let’s focus on the positive today.

Since this column started, the results have been pretty good: 24 of the 30 teams I’ve pegged to improve have pulled off that feat the following season, with the average squad jumping by just over three wins per 17 games. (Many of the numbers are from the 16-game era, so I’ve had to prorate many metrics to account for the extra regular-season game.)

I went 4-1 in last year’s column. The Jaguars and Lions went from three-win seasons to topping .500, while the Ravens jumped by two games, even with Lamar Jackson getting injured for the second consecutive season. The Bills improved from 11 wins to 13 despite having to play a home game in Detroit and playing only 16 total games because their matchup with the Bengals was canceled after Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest on the field. The only blemish was against the Broncos, who we’ll talk about later in this piece.

For this column, I’m relying on metrics with a track record of helping predict which teams will likely improve or decline the following season. I have some say in making the decisions and picking the teams, but I’m not considering teams whose case to improve is more about what they did this offseason than their quantitative performance from 2022.

The Jets, for example, aren’t on this list. I can understand why somebody would pick them when they’ve replaced quarterback Zach Wilson with Aaron Rodgers, and I would expect them to win more games than they did in 2022. The numbers I’m using don’t have a strong case for Gang Green improving this season, however. The Jets didn’t outperform their point differential, weren’t unlucky in close games and were remarkably healthy on defense last season. If you want an example of how making a major upgrade at quarterback on paper isn’t a guarantee of success, you only have to look back at what happened with the Broncos or Browns a year ago.

Most years, I pick five teams. This year, it just happened to work out that there were four teams that stood out as obvious candidates on either side of the divide, so I decided not to force a fifth. Leaving aside the Jets, let’s run through my four favorites for 2023, starting with a team that should be more motivated to win than it was at this time last year:

Chicago Bears

Record in 2022: 3-14

Point differential in 2022: minus-137

2022 record in games decided by seven points or fewer: 1-6

Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: 9th easiest

The easiest pick on this list is a team that seemingly wasn’t trying hard to compete in 2022. The Bears started the season 2-1 with wins over the 49ers and Texans, only to lose 13 of their final 14 games. Their lone victory in that stretch was against the Patriots on Monday Night Football, when they recovered all six fumbles and forced three interceptions out of Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe. Trading away veterans Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn along the way, Chicago might as well have been tanking, right?

Let me start by poking a hole in that theory. The Bears didn’t win many football games after September — and they were lucky to claim the one they did win — but they were more competitive than you might remember. Chicago went 1-6 in games decided by seven points or fewer, and most of those losses were close:

In Week 6, the Bears trailed by five points to the Commanders and had first-and-goal from the 5-yard line with 52 seconds left in the fourth quarter. They failed to score, with their final pass coming up just short of the end zone.

Three weeks later, the Bears scored to make it 35-32 against the Dolphins with just under 12 minutes to go in the game. Matt Eberflus’ defense held the rest of the way, but the offense failed to get past midfield on two subsequent drives.

In Week 10, the Bears went up 30-24 on a touchdown with 9:11 to go in the game, only for Cairo Santos to miss the extra point. The Lions scored a touchdown and successfully converted their extra point to take the lead with 2:21 to go. Chicago failed to move into field-goal range on its final drive.

The following week, the Bears were tied up in the fourth quarter with the Falcons and had them stuck in no man’s land on a fourth-and-2. Atlanta converted, and kicker Younghoe Koo booted a 53-yarder through to give the Falcons their three-point margin of victory.

The Bears encountered more tragic defeats along the way, but the Commanders’ matchup is a perfect example of how close a game can be. Wins and losses are what matters in a given season, but if you’re projecting how a team played on a snap-by-snap basis and what it means for the following season, does it make any sense that the Bears’ loss by a half-yard to the Commanders counts for just as much as their 31-point loss to the Lions in Week 17? Of course not.

Using Chicago’s point differential of minus-137, it projected to win 5.2 games. That 2.2-win gap between what it was expected to win and what it actually nailed down was the largest (on the negative side) of any team. Since 1991, 30 other teams have underperformed that win expectation by a figure between 2 and 2.5 wins. (The vast majority of those teams were playing a 16-game schedule.) Those teams won an average of just under two more games the following season.

There are other factors that should aid the Bears’ chances of improving. They had the fifth-youngest roster in the NFL by snap-weighted age last season, and younger rosters typically improve the following season. They had the most cap space of any team and added good players on both offense (DJ Moore and Nate Davis) and defense (Tremaine Edmunds, Yannick Ngakoue and DeMarcus Walker) this offseason to supplement that young talent. Even after trading away the No. 32 overall pick for Chase Claypool at the trade deadline, Chicago had four of the top 64 picks in April’s draft.

The Bears’ schedule should also be easier. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) pegged them as facing the sixth-toughest schedule last season, while my model had them in fifth. In 2023, they instead project to face the ninth-easiest schedule, per the FPI, partly because they play four games against the NFC South.

The NFC North seems wide open in terms of strength of schedule. The Bears look a distant fourth place by record, but the margin is closer than it seems. The Vikings posted a negative point differential and finished last season 27th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), just three spots ahead of the Bears. The Packers are starting over on offense with quarterback Jordan Love.

The Lions ended the season white hot, but that was courtesy of a remarkable run of avoiding turnovers. They turned the ball over just four times during their 7-2 stretch to end the season, which is the sort of ball protection that makes it easy to win games, even if it’s tough to sustain moving forward. The 2020 Browns and 2021 Cardinals are examples of teams that seemed to be hitting new strides and then disappointed because they couldn’t protect the football.

The last time the Bears were on this list was in 2018. Remember what happened? They jumped from 5-11 to 12-4 and won their first division title in seven seasons. With a leap forward from quarterback Justin Fields, could they pull that off again in 2023? I’m not willing to go quite that far, but I would be surprised if Chicago didn’t take a significant step toward competitiveness. Anything short of seven wins would be a disappointment.

Denver Broncos

Record in 2022: 5-12

Point differential in 2022: minus-72

2022 record in games decided by seven points or fewer: 4-9

Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: 11th toughest

Picking the Bears feels good. Picking the Broncos for the third consecutive season? Not the same feeling. Denver did improve from 5-11 to 7-10 in 2021, but it fell right back to the five-win mark last season, amid lofty expectations. You don’t need me to tell you what happened with quarterback Russell Wilson, but I wrote a deep dive into Wilson’s struggles last November. It went bad in about every way possible outside of serious injury.

While Wilson’s disastrous season dominated the headlines, injuries might have played a similarly sized role in causing the 2022 Broncos to struggle. The injury woes started with Tim Patrick tearing his ACL during the summer and never seemed to subside. By Week 18, they were handing regular snaps to Quinn Bailey, Latavius Murray, Ja’Quan McMillian and Essang Bassey, players who either weren’t on the Week 1 roster or weren’t expected to play roles if things broke right.

By adjusted games lost, the Broncos were the NFL’s most injured team a year ago. This isn’t necessarily anything new — they have ranked in the bottom 10 in injuries each of the past four seasons — but the cycle of pain had not been quite as severe as it was in 2022. Just two players started all 17 games, safety Kareem Jackson and cornerback Pat Surtain II. The rest of the league averaged six 17-game starters.

Even with Wilson melting down, the injuries piling up and a coach who seemed overmatched for his job by the end of Week 1, the Broncos weren’t as bad as they seemed. They had a chance to win two games with long field goals in the final minute of action, only for Brandon McManus to come up short. They lost all three of their games that went into overtime. A drive into the red zone to seal the game against the Colts ended in a turnover, and a subsequent drive to win the game in overtime failed to get 2 yards on two plays when they had third-and-2 from the 6-yard line. The defense failed to hold fourth-quarter leads against four teams, including an 18-play drive from the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens. Denver had realistic shots in the fourth quarter to win both of its games against the Chiefs.

It’s almost too easy to paint a story in which this gets resolved with better second-half coaching and game management. Sean Payton’s Saints never had a season in which they blew five games they led at halftime, as the Broncos did a year ago. A Denver team that has gone 9-19 in games decided by seven points or fewer over the past three seasons will be excited to welcome a coach whose teams went 57-47 in those same games in New Orleans. I don’t think Payton has an innate ability to pull out the close ones, but he’s a capable, experienced coach who will be able to differentiate between the success rates of a fourth-and-5 and a 64-yard field goal at sea level.

While the Broncos lost promising defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero to the Panthers, the hope is that a defense that looked impressive before wearing down in the second half of the season can stay afloat for the entire year. Through Week 13, the Broncos’ defense ranked fourth in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play and second in points per possession allowed. Surtain & Co. had a case to be considered right alongside the 49ers, Cowboys, Jets and Patriots as one of football’s best defenses.

From Week 14 on, though, they ranked 29th in EPA per play and 31st in points per possession allowed. By then, the Broncos had traded Bradley Chubb to the Dolphins and were almost entirely without free-agent addition Randy Gregory. Fellow signing D.J. Jones went down with an injury during the final month of the season, as did Dre’Mont Jones, who inked a big deal with the Seahawks this offseason. Only five teams faced more possessions during the first 13 weeks than the Broncos; perhaps it was inevitable the load of carrying the team and injuries would wear them out.

While the Broncos didn’t have much draft capital after trading for Wilson and Payton, the organization spent a lot of money in free agency to supplement its talent. Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers joined to start along the offensive line, which also gets back Garett Bolles from a season-ending injury. Samaje Perine and Chris Manhertz were imported to help the running game. Dre’Mont Jones was replaced by Zach Allen, who is coming off a career year in Arizona under new Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph. The Broncos added Frank Clark to supplement the pass-rush depth, and maybe they can convince him that the regular season is actually the postseason and get him to produce before January.

The Broncos already are without Patrick for another season after the lanky wideout tore an Achilles in camp, but with average luck and even an above-average rate of injuries, they should be able to win another game or two this season. I suspect that won’t be a satisfying conclusion, given that they have a roster (on paper) capable of doing much more and a coach with a track record of success.

The real question of Denver’s ceiling comes down to what Payton can do with Wilson, who fell apart a year ago. When I looked into his future in my deep dive, I found other veteran quarterbacks who took similar dives and returned to relevancy, including Brett Favre, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Steve McNair. Wilson is a unique player, and it’s always possible that an undersized quarterback who relied so heavily on his legs to extend plays as a passer might not be able to thrive in his mid-30s, but he was a valuable player for the Seahawks in 2021.

Even if the Broncos don’t get the version of Wilson they imagined when they went all-in to trade for him a year ago, I still believe they’ll get something more than the quarterback who looked shell-shocked by the end of last season. If they can match that with something closer to the defense we saw from the first three months of the season, they likely will be a playoff team, even in the crucible of the AFC West.

Cleveland Browns

Record in 2022: 7-10

Point differential in 2022: minus-20

2022 record in games decided by seven points or fewer: 2-5

Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: 13th easiest

If you didn’t pay much attention to the 2022 Browns, I can’t blame you. It was a lost season, as quarterback Deshaun Watson, who was acquired in a big trade last March, was suspended for the first 11 games after he was accused by more than two dozen women of sexual misconduct during massage sessions. Cleveland started 2-5 and quickly fell out of the playoff picture in the AFC North, and I suspect even Browns fans started finding other things to do on Sundays.

The Browns were anonymous for most of the season and embarrassing after Watson was able to play. He was significantly worse than journeyman Jacoby Brissett, failing to complete even 59% of his passes and averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt. He ranked 29th in QBR after making his Browns debut, behind subpar signal-callers Tyler Huntley and Davis Mills. Only Baker Mayfield was worse among regular starters, and he had to learn the Rams’ playbook on the fly while playing behind a third-string offensive line.

Other metrics were more optimistic about the Browns than their record and season-long story would indicate. DVOA rated Cleveland as the 11th-best team, ahead of five of the league’s playoff teams. The only non-playoff team ranked higher was Detroit.

Mind you, Kevin Stefanski & Co. did this with a backup quarterback holding things down for three months. Brissett is one of the league’s top backups, but the Browns had their primary quarterback (Watson) throw just 31.5% of their pass attempts. The only teams with access to their primary quarterback less often were the 49ers (Trey Lance) and Saints (Jameis Winston, who was injured and then benched for Andy Dalton).

Teams that don’t often get to play with a primary quarterback unsurprisingly usually improve the following season. Since 2002, there have been 47 teams that had a primary quarterback take between 20% to 40% of the pass attempts in a given season. (“Primary” quarterbacks include first-round picks who take over the job quickly, as Kenny Pickett did for the Steelers last season.) The following season, with the primary QB taking an average of about 70% of the offensive snaps, those teams improved by an average of just under two wins per 17 games.

As with Russell Wilson, there’s a longer view in play here. It seems more likely we’ll see a version of Watson closer to the player who excelled between 2017 and 2020 than the one who looked lost last season. He might end up as an awkward fit in Stefanski’s preferred style of offense — and he might not have the sort of receivers a team would hope to see in a great passing attack — but he should be able to recreate what Brissett did a year ago, at the minimum.

That version of the offense was quite good. The Browns were sixth in EPA per play with Brissett in the lineup, just behind the Eagles. They went 4-7 over that stretch because of poor timing and bad luck. To the latter point, they recovered just 36.6% of the fumbles in their games, the second-worst mark in the league. Recovering fumbles is almost entirely luck; teams with a sub-40% fumble recovery rate since 2002 have recovered an average of 50.1% of those fumbles the following season, winning an average of 1.2 more games in the process.

The season quickly became irrelevant because the team couldn’t hold a series of leads. In Week 2, a Nick Chubb touchdown put the Browns up 30-17 with 1:55 to go. The Jets — the Jets! — scored on a long Corey Davis reception from blown coverage, recovered an onside kick and then drove downfield for a winning touchdown with 22 seconds to go. That’s a loss from a situation in which the Browns had a 99.9% win expectancy inside of the final two minutes.

Two weeks later, the Browns were up 20-17 on the Falcons in the fourth quarter after another Chubb touchdown, only for Atlanta to pick up 42-yard gains on consecutive drives and set up two field goal tries. Brissett & Co. made it onto Atlanta’s side of the field two drives in a row, but the offense stalled out just beyond Cade York’s field goal range.

The following week’s game against the Chargers was more of a group effort. Up 28-27 entering the fourth quarter, the Browns allowed a field goal and then trailed by two points. The offense drove inside the 10-yard line with 2:54 to go, but Brissett threw a dismal interception on third down when a field goal would have given them the lead. They then stopped the Chargers on downs, but York missed a 53-yarder with 16 seconds to go.

York, whom the Browns surprisingly drafted in the fourth round last April, wasn’t great as a rookie. He cost the Browns 7.1 points on scoring plays versus the performance of an average kicker, the fifth-worst mark in the NFL. He did win the game against Carolina in Week 1 with a 58-yarder, but he missed two kicks against the Chargers and had three kicks blocked, including a 60-yarder to tie the game late against the Ravens. All three of his blocked kicks came from players on the line of scrimmage instead of players who snuck through an open gap or around the edge. He needs to be better in his sophomore season.

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For a team that sports a great offensive line and Chubb, arguably the league’s best running back, the Browns were wildly disappointing inside the red zone. They ranked 27th in points per red zone trip on offseason last season, down from a league-average rate in 2021 and the NFL’s third-best performance during Stefanski’s debut season in 2020. Here, Watson might need to contribute both as a passer and as a runner. It seemed telling that Cleveland gave him a designed run inside the 10-yard line during its last preseason game. I also expect Cleveland to be among the teams that adopt Philadelphia’s “tush push” play for quarterback sneaks this season, which should help a team that went for it more often on fourth down than any other team.

Defense is the side of the ball the Browns need to improve to seriously contend in the AFC North. There are reasons to believe they’ll be better, although that was also the case in 2021 and 2022. They have swapped oft-criticized defensive coordinator Joe Woods for former Lions coach Jim Schwartz, who won Super Bowl LII during his time with the Eagles. Dalvin Tomlinson, signed away from the Vikings, gives the Browns a much-needed force on the interior to aid a run defense ranked 29th in EPA per play allowed over the past two seasons.

For the Browns to truly thrive, their major draft investments need to pan out. Myles Garrett (2017) is a superstar, but Denzel Ward (2018) had a down season in 2022. Martin Emerson Jr. (2022) was the best cornerback in the secondary last season, but 2021 first-round pick Greg Newsome II has been inconsistent and reportedly wanted to be traded for a stretch this offseason. Speedy linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (2021) was banged up and has to prove he’s strong enough to play the position at the pro level.

Both sides of the ball have to improve. Even a vintage season from Watson isn’t necessarily enough; remember that the 27-year-old averaged nearly 9 yards per attempt and led the NFL in passing yards in 2020 for a Texans team that went 4-12. There’s legitimate upside here, though, and the Browns have a better shot at winning 12 games than any of the other teams that missed the postseason. They could also just as easily finish last again in the AFC North.

Los Angeles Rams

Record in 2022: 5-12

Point differential in 2022: minus-77

2022 record in games decided by seven points or fewer: 2-4

Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: 14th toughest

The 2022 Rams were one of the most surprising disappointments in recent memory. According to Pro Football Reference’s data, the Rams’ five wins placed them 5.5 below their preseason over-under expectation from Caesars Sportsbook (10.5 wins). The only team to be as disappointing last season was the Broncos, who matched that 5.5-win difference. Of course, the Broncos weren’t coming off a Super Bowl title.

Teams that grossly underperform their preseason over/under typically improve the following season. There’s an adjustment between 16-game and 17-game over/unders, but if we go back through 1989, there are 40 teams that finished between five and six wins short of their total. Those teams won an average of 3.7 more games outright the following season, which would round closer to four with the 17-game schedule. The most recent example is the 2020 Eagles, who were featured in this column in 2021 and made an immediate trip back to the postseason with a nine-win campaign.

It’s easy to understand why the Rams fell short of expectations last season: Everybody got injured. Sean McVay’s team ranked second in the league in adjusted games lost behind the Broncos, but the Rams’ losses were more concentrated. Injuries decimated the depth chart at wide receiver, defensive back and particularly offensive line. Thirteen players suited up for at least 50 snaps on their offensive line.

The only other team that needed to top that mark over the past decade was, coincidentally, the 2021 Eagles, who got there partly by resting their starters in Week 18. The Rams didn’t have starters left to rest by then outside of Rob Havenstein, who looked like he was either down on his confidence or playing through an injury for most of the season. They are getting many of those injured linemen back and even used a second-round pick on guard Steve Avila, so the hope has to be that they aren’t forced to turn to free agents by the end of 2023.

So many building-block players who helped the Rams win Super Bowl LVI were on the sidelines for the second half of 2023. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp were done for the year after nine games. Aaron Donald was sidelined after 11 starts. Each of those players has age-related injury concerns, but it would be a surprise if they were again all off the field for good by December. The easiest case for L.A. is that it’s healthier and will improve as a result.

If you wanted to be even more optimistic, consider that the Rams were a little better than their record a year ago. They underperformed their point differential by 1.3 wins. A 51-14 win over the Broncos in December fueled some of that gap, but they were 2-4 in games decided by seven points or fewer. They blew a fourth-quarter lead to the Buccaneers in the game that started their spiral, then failed to hold on to a pair of fourth-quarter leads in their games against the Seahawks.

All aboard the Rams bandwagon for a trip back to the Super Bowl? It certainly doesn’t feel that way when you consider what they did this offseason. Trying to reset their cap after years of pushing for a championship, general manager Les Snead & Co. moved on from free agent additions Allen Robinson II and Bobby Wagner, cut veteran Leonard Floyd, let a handful of starters from the 2021 team leave in free agency and traded away Jalen Ramsey to the Dolphins for a third-round pick and backup tight end Hunter Long. The Rams’ biggest free-agent signing of the offseason was Ahkello Witherspoon. This roster, especially on defense, looks virtually unrecognizable.

The offense, though, has plenty of solid players. Stafford and Kupp were one of the most the most feared combinations in 2021. Cam Akers finally looked healthy at the end of 2022, when he ran off three consecutive 100-yard games to finish the season. Tyler Higbee won’t have to be used as a blocker quite as often with a healthier line. Replacing Robinson with anybody might be a plus. The Rams were sixth in EPA per play on offense in 2021; it’s not difficult to imagine them returning to the top 10 again with everybody back on board.

How good does the defense have to be for the Rams to have a real chance at posting a winning record? Getting Donald back for more action will obviously help, although he’s surrounded by virtually zero known quantities in the pass rush or the secondary. Nerds like me are excited about Cobie Durant and Michael Hoecht, but those are guys who might be borderline starters on good teams. Here, they must break through for L.A. to have real hopes of contending.

The other hope is that the Rams’ schedule will be easier, partly because they fell from first to third in the NFC West. My model pegged the Rams as facing the fourth-toughest schedule last season, while Football Outsiders had the Rams at eight. The FTN Football Almanac projects McVay’s team to face the 12th-toughest schedule this season, which isn’t exactly a breeze, but there might be a way things break easier. The Cardinals are tanking. What if the 49ers lose some offensive starters and have a lost season like the ones they endured in 2018 and 2020? What if Geno Smith can’t keep up his new level of play for a second season?

I’m not saying the Rams will reclaim the NFC West, but I wouldn’t be so quick to peg the division as a two-team race because it was a year ago. There’s a universe in which the Rams win nine games, and that’s enough to win the West. As it is, if defensive coordinator Raheem Morris can coach up a few of his young players to be contributors around Donald, the offense will recover enough for the franchise to compete for a playoff spot.

OVER AND UNDER WIN TOTALS

Larry Holder of The Athletic with the latest in the over/under win total market:

By Larry Holder

2h ago

19

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The Jets and the Giants have elevated into the top three most bet NFL teams for over/under win total categories, via BetMGM. But neither is for uplifting reasons.

The Jets rank third for most bet under teams in terms of tickets sold, while the Giants ranked third in most handle collected for under bets.

There’s also been a couple of teams receiving a bump in their over/under landmarks with the preseason dwindling down to its final week.

Here’s a look at the teams receiving the most action and the over/under win totals for every team:

Most bet Overs (tickets)

Patriots 7.5

Broncos 8.5

Steelers 8.5

Most bet Overs (handle)

Commanders 6.5

Patriots 7.5

Steelers 8.5

Most bet Unders (tickets)

Raiders 6.5

Cardinals 4.5

Jets 9.5

Most bet Unders (handle)

Raiders 6.5

Panthers 7.5

Giants 7.5

Current NFL over odds

Arizona Cardinals                  Over 4.5 (+100)

Atlanta Falcons                     Over 8.5  (-145)

Baltimore Ravens                 Over 10.5 (-105)

Buffalo Bills                          Over 10.5 (-140)

Carolina Panthers                Over 7.5 (-110)

Chicago Bears                     Over 7.5 (-130)

Cincinnati Bengals               Over 11.5 (+120)

Cleveland Browns                Over 9.5 (+110)

Dallas Cowboys                   Over 9.5 (-165)

Denver Broncos                   Over 8.5 (-105)

Detroit Lions                        Over 9.5 (-130)

Green Bay Packers            Over 7.5 (-125)

Houston Texans                 Over 6.5 (+110)

Indianapolis Colts               Over 6.5 (-120)

Jacksonville Jaguars          Over 9.5 (-150)

Kansas City Chiefs             Over 11.5 (-130)

Las Vegas Raiders             Over 6.5 (+110)

Los Angeles Chargers       Over 9.5 (-130)

Los Angeles Rams             Over 6.5 (+100)

Miami Dolphins                  Over 9.5 (-110)

Minnesota Vikings             Over 8.5 (-120)

New England Patriots        Over 7.5 (+120)

New Orleans Saints           Over 9.5 (+105)

New York Giants               Over 7.5 (-105)

New York Jets                   Over 9.5 (-125)

Philadelphia Eagles          Over 11.5 (+110)

Pittsburgh Steelers           Over 8.5 (-150)

San Francisco 49ers        Over 10.5 (-140)

Seattle Seahawks            Over 8.5 (-150)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers    Over 6.5 (+120)

Tennessee Titans             Over 7.5 (-125)   

Washington Commanders    Over 6.5 (-105)

For what it’s worth – we like the Jaguars over 9.5, the Seahawks over 8.5 and the Colts under 6.5.