| NFC EAST |
| DALLASEven as WR TERRY McLAURIN and the Commanders mend fences and the TREY HENDRICKSON saga ends in Cincinnati, Frank Schwab notes that the Cowboys and EDGE MICAH PARSONS remain deadlocked: The Dallas Cowboys start Sept. 4, the Thursday night of Week 1. And the ice isn’t thawing between Micah Parsons and Jerry Jones. The increasingly concerning situation with Parsons and the Cowboys is a good place to start the NFL panic meter, in which we look at how much some teams should be concerned with high-profile, unresolved issues now that the preseason is done: Even if Parsons signed as you’re reading this, it would be a big challenge for him to be ready for anything close to a normal workload for Week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles. You don’t miss almost all of training camp, then sign and play 60 snaps against Eagles tackle Lane Johnson a week later. If you invest $42 million per season in a player, you don’t want to put him at risk for an injury right away. It doesn’t seem like an agreement is close. Jones continues to antagonize Parsons and his agent. Parsons seemed to send his own message, showing up for the preseason finale eating nachos and then laying down on an athletic training table for a few moments. Parsons is very media savvy and he had to know those images would be seen by everyone. Something will need to happen (and fast) for Parsons to avoid missing games. It’s getting to the point where Parsons at least missing the opener, like Chiefs defensive lineman Chris Jones two years ago, seems inevitable. Panic meter: Turn it up to 11 |
| WASHINGTONThe Commanders have reached a three-year deal with WR TERRY McLAURIN, ending their lone contractual disruption. John Keim of ESPN.com breaks it down: As soon as the contract extension for Washington Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin was reported, the question began: Who won? In the reaction to determine which side — McLaurin or the Commanders — ultimately made concessions or misplayed their hand during the negotiations, the real victors from Monday’s agreement are quarterback Jayden Daniels, offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, wide receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end Zach Ertz and everyone else on the roster. Over his six NFL seasons, McLaurin had become the “heartbeat” of the offense, providing energy, emotion and passion for the unit, one former Washington assistant coach told ESPN recently, and the receiver was routinely voted a team captain. For those reasons, the coach said, the deal needed to get done. The real money on McLaurin’s new deal won’t be known until the three-year extension is filed with the league and the total guarantees and true breakdown are known. For now, the headline is that McLaurin received a nice per-year average number, and the total contract is worth “up to” $96 million over three years, according to sources. It could be discovered in the next few days that the team got the deal it wanted. So, saying which side won or lost in this situation is premature and will ultimately become irrelevant. What matters now is that Washington can enter its Sept. 7 opener against the New York Giants feeling good and with its best receiver in tow. Following its best season in decades, Washington could not afford to enter the 2025 campaign with the contract impasse hanging over them. The negotiations had already dominated headlines, beginning with McLaurin expressing his frustration in a 30-minute news conference July 15, failing to report to camp a week later, then holding out the first four days — and being fined $200,000 — before becoming a hold-in and requesting a trade, which, multiple team sources said, was not a surprise to the organization. Meanwhile, on the field, there was growing frustration among members of the offense. On Aug. 15, Kingsbury expressed his own dissatisfaction with the unit’s performance. The Commanders ranked fifth in points and seventh in yards last season, but their summer was uneven. Daniels looked like himself, as did Samuel and Ertz, but Kingsbury knew what — namely, who — was missing. “There hasn’t been a ton of contact with him,” Kingsbury said of McLaurin. “He’s been here, but he’s been working with trainers, so until he gets back on the grass, that’s when we’ll start building that back up. “Until we get some of these other pieces back, we’re not going to know exactly what we are. … That’s something we have to get to over the next three weeks.” With McLaurin on the field, the pressure on Washington’s other offensive weapons diminishes. Samuel will have more room to operate underneath, giving him the ability to run after the catch and break tackles. Ertz can be more effective when going over the middle as well. The deep ball also will come more into play. Of Daniels’ 46 passes that traveled 20 air yards or more last season, 24 went to McLaurin. Daniels posted a QBR of 88.4 (out of 100) when targeting McLaurin on these routes, with eight completions for 341 yards and three scores. McLaurin also serves as an offensive catalyst, which is one reason Washington likes getting him the ball early in games. When McLaurin caught three or more passes in the first half last season, Washington was 6-1. Over his career, Washington is 21-23-1 when McLaurin catches three or more passes in the first half. But compare that to its record overall with him: 41-58-1. That overall record — which had been 29-53-1 before last season’s turnaround — is why leaving Washington never made sense for McLaurin. He had played with 10 different starting quarterbacks before Daniels arrived. Now, he has a quarterback coming off a historic rookie season with 3,568 passing yards and 25 touchdowns along with 891 yards and six scores rushing. With stability at quarterback and a new contract in hand, McLaurin — a beloved figure by the fan base and for years the only bright spot in Washington because of his production and professionalism — can think about retiring as one of the franchise’s most popular players ever. So, while declaring a victor for this deal is still important to some, the impact will be felt into the future. Washington was always concerned about setting a precedent with this deal, knowing it has other key players up for extensions or new deals in 2026 such as Samuel, left tackle Laremy Tunsil, linebacker Frankie Luvu and, possibly, cornerback Marshon Lattimore. That’s why the details, ultimately, will matter. Other players on the team were highly interested to see McLaurin’s contract resolved, knowing they could be in a similar position soon. For now, though, Washington’s energy is back. And it happened at just the right time. |
| NFC SOUTH |
| NEW ORLEANSQB SPENCER RATTLER is the Saints starter for Week 1. Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com: The Saints quarterback competition is officially over. Head coach Kellen Moore announced in his Tuesday press conference that Spencer Rattler is the team’s starter to begin the season, with Rattler winning the battle over Tyler Shough. While Jake Haener was a part of the competition, as he was listed as one of three starters on the unofficial depth chart, he was dropped from the roster earlier on Tuesday. Moore said that Rattler and Shough made the decision hard because they were so close. “Spencer Rattler is our starting quarterback,” Moore said. “He’s done an awesome job this offseason. He’s just been consistent. He’s made some really good decisions throughout this entire process and his ability to make plays with his arm and his feet have certainly showed up. So, really, really excited about Spencer. He’s earned this opportunity. He’s going to do a tremendous job for us. Rattler, 24, started six games last year after New Orleans made min a fifth-round pick. He finished the season having completed 57 percent of his passes for 1,317 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions in seven total appearances. Moore cited Rattler’s experience as one of the factors in his winning the competition. Moore added that he doesn’t want to debate the QBs throughout the season, so the plan is to have Rattler as the starter and Shough continue to develop. A second-round pick this season, Shough will begin the season as New Orleans’ backup. “Love the development that he’s had over this entire offseason,” Moore said of Shough. “He’s done a number of things for the first time in his career, just navigating that, and I think that’s an important aspect when you’re a younger quarterback — to let the entire process play out. I thought he capped it off with just an excellent performance against Denver on the last preseason game. I thought he did a really, really good job. “And so, I’m a big believer in just the importance of developing quarterbacks, developing them the right way. There’s a process for both of these guys [to] give them the space to develop. And I think we’ve got two guys that are going to have great careers for us.” Rattler will lead the offense as the Saints open the season against the Cardinals on Sept. 7. |
| TAMPA BAYVeteran QB TEDDY BRIDGEWATER is now the #2. Jeremy Fowler: @JFowlerESPNThe #Bucs plan to release quarterback Kyle Trask, per source. He will revert to IR with a shoulder issue, then work out a settlement or release soon and look for a new team. Tampa’s long-time QB2 on the move. |
| AFC WEST |
| KANSAS CITYNo one knows who QB AARON RODGERS’ wife is. Everyone will know the wife of TE TRAVIS KELCE. People.com: Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce are engaged! The “Cruel Summer” singer and the Kansas City Chiefs tight end, both 35, announced their engagement in a joint post on Instagram alongside several photos from their floral-filled garden proposal on Tuesday, Aug. 26. “Your English teacher and your gym teacher are getting married 🧨,” Swift wrote in the caption. Kelce proposed with a ring by Kindred Lubeck of Artifex Fine Jewelry. The dazzling stone is an “Old Mine brilliant cut,” which Swift shows off in a series of photos announcing the big news. Kelce is seen on bended knee in one of the images, while in another they are embracing and in the final image, they are seated on a bench beneath a pink-and-white floral trellis. Kelce shared last month that he ‘had ome adventures this offseason’In July, Kelce shared a sweet Instagram post that offered a glimpse at special moments in their relationship. “Had some adventures this offseason, kept it 💯,” the Kansas City Chiefs tight end, 35, wrote in the caption on July 24. The post featured several photos of the pair in coordinating looks and spending the off-season together among friends. In one photo, the couple wore matching black looks, and eagle-eyed fans noticed a subtle reveal on Kelce’s phone screen in the corner of the photo, which showed him and Swift as each other’s lock screens. In another photo, Swift humorously tried on Kelce’s thick-framed black glasses for size, as he grinned while sitting next to her. The pair also sported coordinating baseball caps, with Kelce’s reading “captain” and Swift’s reading “first mate.” This from KIMA-TV: Travis Kelce’s father is opening up about his son, Travis Kelce’s love life and what truly makes him happy. Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift have been dating since September 2023, when Swift attended one of Kelce’s Kansas City Chiefs’ games. Ed Kelce, Travis’ father, has no doubt that the couple are madly in love. When Ed was asked about the source of Travis’ happiness, he said, “Taylor. There’s no question about it,” he tells PEOPLE at the premiere of “The Kingdom in Kansas City.” He was also asked about the “Lavender Haze” singer’s appearance on Travis and his brother Jason Kelce’s podcast, “New Heights,” which Swift used to announce her next album, The Life of a Showgirl. He said, “I think it was awesome. It was great to see them go back and forth. They’re two people obviously very much in love.” Travis’ mom, Donna Kelce, told the outlet, “It was authentic. It was just something I think everybody was thrilled to see, and it was a very loving podcast.” |
| LAS VEGASWR JAKOBI MYERS wants a trade. Eva Geltheim of SI.com: Raiders receiver Jakobi Meyers has reportedly requested a trade from the team after they were unable to come to terms on a contract extension, per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network. Rapoport added that the Raiders have no plans to trade Meyers. The 28-year-old is the top receiver on the Raiders, and finished second to only tight end Brock Bowers on the team in receiving last season. Meyers is coming off his first 1,000-yard campaign, after catching 87 passes for 1,027 yards and four touchdowns last season. He has recorded over 800 yards in both seasons with the Raiders, and was slated to be an important part of the new Raiders offense led by quarterback Geno Smith, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and head coach Pete Carroll. Prior to joining the Raiders, the former undrafted free agent spent the first four years of his career with the Patriots. Meyers is now seeking the opportunity to join his third NFL team. And the Raiders have signed his possible replacement. Grant Gordon of NFL.com: A decade after he was drafted by the Raiders, Amari Cooper is back with the Silver and Black. Cooper, a 2015 first-round selection of the franchise, is signing a one-year, $3.5 million deal with the Raiders, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported. The contract carries a $6 million max value with $500,000 in per-game roster bonuses and $2 million in available incentives. The news of Cooper’s signing comes just hours after Rapoport and NFL Network Insider Tom Pelissero reported receiver Jakobi Meyers requested a trade out of Las Vegas after the two sides were unable to negotiate a new contract. With training camps in full swing, Cooper has been sitting atop Gregg Rosenthal’s Top 101 free agents list as countless waves of free agency went by the wayside. The five-time Pro Bowler has finally settled on a spot and will don a different jersey for the third time in the last two years after splitting the 2024 campaign with the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills. Having turned 31 in June, Cooper returns to a vastly different Raiders team in a dramatically different role. Taken fourth overall in 2015 by an Oakland Raiders team coached by Jack Del Rio with Reggie McKenzie as the general manager, Cooper is joining the Las Vegas Raiders, with Pete Carroll as his new head coach and GM John Spytek having worked out his new deal. Back then, Cooper was a young star ready to shine. Now, he’ll be the most experienced and accomplished member of the Raiders receiving crew. Second-season tight end Brock Bowers will be viewed as quarterback Geno Smith’s top target. Beyond Meyers, the Raiders WR corps includes three rookies — second-rounder Jack Bech, fourth-rounder Dont’e Thornton Jr. and sixth-rounder Tommy Mellott — along with speedster Tre Tucker. There’s a dearth of proven talent and the hope is obvious that Cooper will remedy that in some facet. He will potentially be looked upon as a mentor and certainly as a stabilizing and experienced target for Smith. Cooper heads to Vegas with 10 seasons, 154 games and 143 starts under his belt, having played three-plus years with the Raiders to begin his career before he was traded for the first of three times. He was sent to the Dallas Cowboys in 2018 and spent another three-plus seasons with them before he was shipped to the Browns ahead of the 2022 campaign. Last season, Cleveland traded him yet again, this time to the Bills. In his career, Cooper has produced 711 receptions, 10,033 yards and 64 touchdowns. Last year was the least productive of his tenure, though. With the Browns and Bills, he combined for 44 catches for 547 yards and four TDs in 14 games. In 2023 with the Browns, he had a career-best 1,250 yards and went to the Pro Bowl. He’s not that far removed from peak production and will aim to show he’s still got juice left. |
| AFC NORTH |
| CINCINNATIIt was awkward at times, but the Bengals and EDGE TREY HENDRICKSON have reached an agreement – but not an extension. Ben Baby of ESPN.com: – Trey Hendrickson’s contract situation is resolved. The star pass rusher will get a $14 million raise from the Cincinnati Bengals for this season, boosting his 2025 salary to $30 million, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Monday. Hendrickson’s revised deal also includes a $1 million incentive that he collects if he plays 60% of the plays and the Bengals make the playoffs, sources told Schefter. Hendrickson is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent after this season. Before receiving the raise, Hendrickson had not participated in any offseason workouts, including all of training camp, while seeking a new deal with the club. He had insisted he would not play this season under the original contract at $16 million. The Bengals and Hendrickson had discussed a two-year, $79 million extension that would have placed him among the top three pass rushers in new dollars, a source told ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, equaling $95 million over three years when accounting for his original $16 million base salary for 2025. But the proposed deal included $33 million in guarantees — no guarantees beyond 2025 — and Hendrickson considered that untenable, Fowler reports. Hendrickson, 30, is coming off his best season in the NFL. He had 17.5 sacks in 2024, leading the league. Hendrickson also was named to The Associated Press All-Pro team and reached the Pro Bowl for the fourth straight season. He also had 17.5 sacks in the 2023 season. It’s the third significant deal the Bengals made this offseason in an effort to maintain their roster. In March, Cincinnati signed wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to significant extensions. Chase signed a four-year deal worth $161 million, comprising the highest average annual salary for a non-quarterback in league history at the time. Higgins signed a three-year deal worth $115 million. Hendrickson is now the fourth player on the roster, including quarterback Joe Burrow, making an average of at least $30 million annually. Hendrickson is one of six NFL edge rushers at or above that salary threshold, according to OverTheCap.com. This is the second time that Hendrickson has received a short-term cash infusion with the Bengals. In 2023, Hendrickson signed a one-year extension that featured an $8 million signing bonus. That extended the four-year deal he signed with the Bengals that was initially worth $60 million. Monday’s agreement is a compromise for both sides ahead of the upcoming year. Throughout the offseason, Hendrickson had repeatedly said he wanted a long-term deal with significant guaranteed money. Ahead of the team’s second preseason game against the Washington Commanders on Aug. 18, Hendrickson told ESPN’s Laura Rutledge that the two sides had agreed on the length and total value on a potential contract extension. The arrangement for the upcoming season significantly increases the value of Hendrickson’s contract for 2025, but he’s still scheduled to become a free agent in 2026. Hendrickson had insisted that he would not play this upcoming season on his current salary. “There are plans on not having to play on the current deal,” Hendrickson said July 30. “That’s something we have [as] a common goal to get to. That’s the plan moving forward.” At the team’s annual media luncheon in July, Bengals team president Mike Brown also indicated that he believed Hendrickson had merited a pay increase based on his performance in previous seasons. “He’s a guy that I’ve said before has earned a raise and an extension,” Brown said July 21. “I’d love to give him one. We’re trying to work one out. It’s a good problem to have.” Paul Dehner, Jr. of The Athletic says all the Bengals ever wanted was a reasonably happy Hendrickson on the field in 2025. Like any great soap opera of its time, this had to end with a twist. In this case, it feels like both sides will wake up Tuesday to find out this was all a dream. Hendrickson will take the field to practice with his team for the first time since his three sacks helped put away the Pittsburgh Steelers on Jan. 4 and still be in the same spot. He still won’t have long-term security. He’ll still need to bet on himself. He still won’t know where he will play next year. He’ll still fight the age stigma in the free-agent market. He still will be without guarantees that place him in the stratosphere of those he bested while coming in second in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Meanwhile, the Bengals still don’t have a long-term answer they can count on at one of the defense’s most important positions. They still are relying on a cast of unproven players to prop up the rest of the line around Hendrickson. And they are out an extra $14 million in exchange for Hendrickson’s happiness in 2025. So, who exactly won here? Most notably, the 2025 Bengals won. For now, that’s going to have to be good enough. Word out of the building, and Hendrickson’s camp, is that he’s happy. Yeah, $14 million without giving up a year will do that. That matters. I hope this brings him some form of contentment. Yet, in the words that one executive said to our Dianna Russini: “Took six months to lead here?” This wasn’t much ado about nothing, though. This was much ado about one thing: The Bengals’ front office had no interest in 2026 Trey Hendrickson. Period. Our league sources said the Bengals offered three years and $95 million to Hendrickson, but there were no guarantees beyond the first year. The second year of the deal would only pay him $23 million with $39 million in what amounted to funny money for 2027. Hendrickson had every right to tell the Bengals to kick rocks. Take as much as he can get and hit free agency in March. He was stuck. He’s been stuck since the day he signed that one-year extension back in 2023. He’ll have regrets about that for years, as it kept him from hitting the open market before last season. It handed all the leverage over to the Bengals here. They decided to use it to avoid being locked into Hendrickson beyond his 31st birthday this December. They were always worried about the age. They were worried about his lack of production against the run. They were worried about the future of a defense that, despite Hendrickson’s 35 sacks the last two seasons, was still one of the worst in football. They didn’t view him in the same stratosphere as Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. The contentious process landed in the only place the Bengals would let it — one more year on the books. They didn’t have to give Hendrickson the raise. It was the very least they could do, considering how lopsided these deals with him have been since he signed as a free agent in 2021 for four years and $60 million. They deserve a hat tip for that. And they did check off every one of the boxes Burrow drew on the board in January. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Trey Hendrickson and Mike Gesicki. Done, done, done and done. Many, many pundits shouted loudly into cameras, saying the Bengals would never pull off such a trick. There were too many other, smaller, unchecked boxes, but for now, the club positioned itself to make a star-laden run at the organization’s first Lombardi Trophy. They will do so with a pissed off Hendrickson screaming around the edge, trying to prove his worth to the entire NFL with every pass rush. A frightening concept even by Blackout Trey standards. We’ve seen this show before. A great Bengals player doesn’t get a contract, but still produces an elite season turbo-boosted by motivation. From Jessie Bates on the franchise tag to Tee Higgins to Jonah Williams to Ja’Marr Chase and even Hendrickson last year on his road to 17.5 sacks. Never mind, for now, what the Bengals could have done with his $30 million in free agency and a second-round pick they could have added by dealing Hendrickson in March before this one-year band-aid. That’s another column already written on another day. The Bengals not only need to win this year to justify this decision, but need their young edge rushers to finally take the pressure off the bleak future without Hendrickson. The failed Myles Murphy pick cost them this money. If they could count on him, parting with Hendrickson would have been easy. They can’t. Can Shemar Stewart change that narrative? Can a draft pick or free agent do it next year? Those will be decisions for next year’s pie..– – -There was a time that QB DESMOND RIDDER was a star with the U. of Cincinnati, but he won’t be won with Cincinnati’s NFL team. The Bengals have cut him. |
| CLEVELANDThe Raiders, with QB AIDEN O’CONNELL out, make a pitch for QB KENNY PICKETT. The Browns bite – and now one of the rookies DILLON GABRIEL or SHEDEUR SANDERS is the backup to JOE FLACCO. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: If Kenny Pickett and Sam Howell were in a competition to see who will be traded the most times, they’d both be winning. Or losing. Pickett was traded for a third time on Monday, from the Browns to the Raiders. Via Adam Schefter of ESPN.com, the Browns will receive a 2026 fifth-round pick. Pickett, a first-round pick in 2022, originally was traded by the Steelers to the Eagles. In March, the Eagles traded him to the Browns, for quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and a fifth-round pick. Howell also has been traded three times. From Washington to Seattle to Minnesota to Philly. We’ve said for months (blind squirrel alert) that Pickett looked to be the odd man out in Cleveland. He was the placeholder, before they signed fan favorite Joe Flacco and drafted Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. The Browns had been floating the idea that they’d carry four quarterbacks on the 53-man roster. That never made sense. As evidenced by the fact that, in the end, the Browns didn’t do it. Instead, they’ll proceed with Flacco, Gabriel, and Sanders. Along with the inevitability that Deshaun Watson will show up at some point this season with a clean bill of health, and a request to be put on the active roster or released. Pickett will now be the No. 2 to Geno Smith in Las Vegas, at least until Aidan O’Connell returns from a broken wrist. He’s expected to miss 6-8 weeks.– – -This take from Jim Rome: @jimromeThe Browns aren’t sabotaging Shedeur Sanders because of his last name, he’s still on the team BECAUSE of his last name. – – -We forgot WR DIOTAE JOHNSON was a “Pro Bowl receiver.” John Breech of CBSSports.com on his demise: Diontae Johnson’s NFL career might be over. The 29-year-old receiver latched on with the Browns this year hoping to revive his career, but that won’t be happening, because Cleveland has decided to release him, according to NFL Media. The Browns don’t have a lot depth at receiver, so if Johnson couldn’t crack the Browns’ roster, it’s likely going to be tough for him to crack another team’s roster. Johnson averaged 872.6 yards per year during the first five seasons of his career, which all came in Pittsburgh. That stint included a Pro Bowl season in 2021. However, he’s struggled since being traded from the Steelers to the Panthers in March 2024. He ended up playing for a total of three teams last season in the Panthers, Texans and Ravens. |
| AFC SOUTH |
| HOUSTONThe reason that RB JOE MIXON will miss at least the first four games is murky. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: Not much has been said about the injury that has kept Texans running back Joe Mixon from practicing in training camp, and that will now cause him to at least four regular-season games on the Non-Football Injury list. It’s been called a foot injury. It’s been called an ankle injury. Because it’s a non-football injury, it happened away from work. No one is saying how it happened or what the expected duration is. The injury has financial ramifications. For each game Mixon misses, he’ll lose $29,411 in per-game active roster bonuses. And since payment of the player is discretionary, his $7 million base salary (at game checks of $388,888 each) is in jeopardy. There’s also a chance that he’s in default as to his signing bonus. The proration for 2025 is $2 million. It’s unclear why the approach has been silence. It invites speculation that Mixon may not be back for a while, and that the Texans may not pay him while he’s out. |
| TENNESSEEThis from Adam Schefter: @AdamSchefterSources: Titans RB Tyjae Spears, who suffered a high ankle sprain earlier this month and was spotted in a walking boot this weekend, is being placed on injured reserve, meaning he will sidelined at least the first four games of the season. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| BROADCAST NEWSSomething to keep an eye on: @MySportsUpdateThis is not good: YouTube TV says it’s in a carriage dispute with FOX. They’ve notified customers they have until Wednesday, Aug. 27 to reach a deal — or subscribers will lose access to FOX stations right before the NFL and college football seasons kick off. This affects FOX, FS1, Big Ten Network, FOX News Channel and more. |
| AUSTIN MOCK’S AFC PROJECTIONSHere is how Austin Mock of The Athletic projects the AFC. It seems about where we would put things if we just wrote them down on a piece of paper without playing 100,000 simulations (maybe the Chargers higher, the Jaguars a bit lower): It should come as little surprise that my NFL Projection Model once again sees the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills as the three best teams in the AFC. What might surprise you, however, is that the model doesn’t see the three-time reigning AFC champion Chiefs as the conference favorites. In fact, they’re not even No. 2. Right now, the model sees the Bills as the AFC favorites, with the Ravens second and the Chiefs a close third. Of course, you should never bet against quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who have been to the AFC title game seven years in a row. Perhaps as the year goes on, they can reclaim their place atop the AFC, but for now, they’re not seen as the absolute cream of the crop. Speaking of which, while the top three have largely separated themselves from the pack, there are a few teams hovering a tier below, threatening to push themselves into true contender status. Let’s take a quick look at each division and examine the win total projections for each AFC team heading into the 2025 regular season. Wins Playoff odds SB odds 1 Bills 11.2 87.7% 11.1% 2 Ravens 11.0 85.5% 11.8% 3 Chiefs 10.9 82.9% 11.2% 4 Bengals 10.0 71.0% 5.4% 5 Broncos 9.2 53.5% 2.3% 6 Texans 8.8 53.4% 2.5% 7 Steelers 8.7 44.1% 1.8% 8 Chargers 8.5 39.6% 1.2% 9 Patriots 8.4 39.1% 0.8%10 Dolphins 8.0 31.8% 0.7%11 Jaguars 7.9 35.1% 0.8%12 Raiders 7.6 21.4% 0.4%13 Colts 7.5 28.3% 0.6%14 Titans 6.5 14.2% 0.1%15 Jets 6.2 8.3% 0.1%16 Browns 5.4 4.2% < 0.1% AFC EastThe Bills have owned this division ever since Tom Brady left the New England Patriots for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and with reigning MVP Josh Allen leading the way, there’s every reason to expect their dominance to continue. Allen and the Bills have won five consecutive division crowns, and my model gives them a 74 percent chance to make it six in a row. As long as Allen stays healthy, it’s hard to envision a world where Buffalo doesn’t win the East again. However, that doesn’t mean there’s zero hope for the rest of the division. Coach Mike Vrabel is taking the reins of a Patriots team on the rise, with my model projecting them to double their win total from 2024. Vrabel has a proven track record, and when you combine that with a full NFL offseason for up-and-coming QB Drake Maye and some major offseason investments upgrading the roster, the Patriots could turn things around quickly. Remember, the Patriots are slated to face the league’s easiest schedule, per my projections, which gives them the best shot to dethrone the Bills. As for the other teams in the East, the Miami Dolphins are trending in the wrong direction, and I don’t think the roster is good enough to compete with the Bills. Still, they edge out the New York Jets to avoid finishing at the bottom of the division. Sure, there is reason for optimism with new Jets coach Aaron Glenn, but they’re not ready to compete this early in his tenure. Sorry, Jets fans. AFC NorthTwo of the best quarterbacks in the NFL reside in the AFC North, but only one (Lamar Jackson) plays for a team (the Ravens) that knows how to build a roster, while the other (Joe Burrow) is the frontman for a franchise (the Cincinnati Bengals) that looks poised to waste another prime season of its star quarterback. The Ravens have won back-to-back division crowns and are in a great position to make it three in a row. That’s because while the Ravens and Bengals offenses will be comparably excellent, with both quarterbacks in the thick of the MVP race, that’s where the comparison ends. Baltimore should field a solid defense, while my model projects the Bengals defense to, once again, be a below-average unit that will ultimately keep them from accomplishing greatness. It could be a close fight, but my model gives the Ravens a 55 percent chance to win the North, while the Bengals sit at 32 percent. While the top two teams have starting quarterbacks with MVP abilities, the bottom two teams each have quarterbacks with a Super Bowl ring. Unfortunately, those Super Bowl victories came a decade and a half ago. The Pittsburgh Steelers will be a fringe AFC playoff team because my model believes QB Aaron Rodgers still has a little something left in the tank, while coach Mike Tomlin always finds a way to win a couple of games the Steelers shouldn’t. Then there are the Browns, who will start Joe Flacco. The biggest question in Cleveland is how long he’ll keep hold of the starting job with rookies Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel lurking. Either way, the Browns will likely be contending for a top-five pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. AFC SouthThe division should produce one of the tightest races in the NFL, with some intriguing teams but no true Super Bowl contender. Right now, my model doesn’t project any team in the South to win nine games, on average. The Houston Texans have won back-to-back division crowns with 10-win seasons, while the Jaguars won three years ago with nine wins. Part of the reason for the parity in this division is the inconsistency and uncertainty at quarterback from top to bottom. This division race will likely hinge on whether Texans QB C.J. Stroud can play more like he did as a rookie vs. his disappointing sophomore campaign, when he lined up behind the NFL’s worst offensive line, according to my model. A new offensive coordinator and some positive regression should mean Stroud improves upon last year. However, if Houston struggles again, Jacksonville seems primed to take over. QB Trevor Lawrence has also been inconsistent during his young career, but playing in new coach Liam Coen’s offense should do wonders for his efficiency. My model gives Houston a 45 percent chance to win the division, while Jacksonville lands at 26 percent. Indianapolis and Tennessee round out the bottom of the AFC South, with the Colts turning the page on the Anthony Richardson era and giving Daniel Jones the reins, while Tennessee hands the keys to first overall pick Cam Ward. My model is a bit more bullish on the Colts, but I’m not at all confident Jones can take care of the football. Don’t be surprised if these teams are “contending” for top-10 picks. AFC WestIt’s not shocking that the best division in the AFC boasts three coaches (Kansas City’s Andy Reid, Denver’s Sean Payton and the Las Vegas Raiders’ Pete Carroll) with Super Bowl rings and a fourth (the Los Angeles Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh) who has one of the highest winning percentages in NFL history. Kansas City remains the favorite to win the division, per my projections, which would be its 10th consecutive AFC West crown. That’s right, the last quarterback to win this division who wasn’t in a Chiefs uniform was Broncos-era Peyton Manning on his way to a Super Bowl title in 2015. The Chargers haven’t won the division since 2009; the Raiders’ drought goes back to 2002. The Chiefs are who they are at this point: the favorites until someone knocks them off the pedestal. Still, this division is strong, and it won’t be an easy road for them. In fact, my model only has the Chiefs winning the division 60 percent of the time. Payton’s Broncos are next up at 21 percent, as they look to build upon a wild-card berth in 2024, a stellar rookie season from quarterback Bo Nix and an elite defense. Harbaugh’s Chargers are also coming off a playoff appearance last season, but the devastating preseason injury to offensive tackle Rashawn Slater gives my model some doubt about what their ceiling can be this year. QB Justin Herbert will need to take the next step if they’re going to end their division title drought. Lastly, Carroll takes over a Raiders team that landed a big upgrade at QB (from what they had last year) in Geno Smith. The Raiders don’t have the roster to contend quite yet, but if the offensive line can put together a solid season, this offense could be fun. Smith will likely pepper star tight end Brock Bowers with targets, while rookie top-10 pick Ashton Jeanty leads the way on the ground. |
