UPWARD BOUND
Rivers McCown of ProFootballOutsiders, writing at ESPN.com, has a list of 25 young players who could break through in 2021. We keep seeing New Orleans TE ADAM TRAUTMAN on lists like this – and there he is again. Comments are edited for space:
Every year, Football Outsiders puts together a list of the NFL’s best and brightest young players. Eighty percent of draft-day discussion is about first-round picks, and 10% is about the players who should have been first-round picks but instead went in the second round, particularly if they were quarterbacks.
This list is about that last 10%. It’s a stab in the dark at players who may just come out of the woodwork and surprise you this year.
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Previous editions of the list have hyped players such as Geno Atkins, Grady Jarrett, Chris Godwin, Tyreek Hill and Jamaal Charles before they blew up. Last year’s list of players was hampered by the pandemic — which kept many young players around the league from getting a real offseason to challenge for a job — but still managed to single out Jamel Dean, Dre’Mont Jones and Chase Winovich as key contributors.
Methodology
This is the 15th anniversary of the list. We’re still relying on the same things we always do: scouting, statistics, measurables, context, ceiling, expected role and what we hear from other sources. The goal is to bring your attention to players who are still developing in their second and third seasons, even after the draftniks have forgotten them. It’s important to note that this list is not strictly about fantasy football (otherwise, there would be no offensive linemen on it) and career potential matters. It’s not just a list for the 2021 season.
Here’s our full criteria:
Drafted in the third round or later, or signed as an undrafted free agent
Entered the NFL between 2018 and 2020
Fewer than 500 career offensive or defensive snaps (except running backs, who are allowed just 300 offensive snaps)
Have not signed a contract extension (players who have bounced around the league looking for the right spot, however, still qualify for the list)
Age 26 or younger as of September 1, 2021
Here are the top 25 NFL prospects for 2021:
1. Damien Harris, RB, New England Patriots
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2019, pick 87 | 251 offensive snaps
It was extremely hard to find anybody talking down Harris, an Alabama back who showcased an advanced skill set in college and came to the Crimson Tide as the No. 1 running back recruit in the nation. Harris was made to split time with Josh Jacobs — you may remember him from places such as the first round of the 2019 draft — and still averaged 6.4 yards per carry and rolled in 23 touchdowns in his four-year career.
Harris is not likely to be a three-down, win-your-fantasy-PPR-league guy. He’s a between-the-tackles bruiser, and that’s why he lasted until the third round. He’s built to pound the rock. He did that successfully last year for the Patriots to the tune of a 9.9% DVOA, and the only reason he didn’t surpass eligibility for this list for snaps is because the Patriots had problems sustaining that kind of game plan.
We don’t think Harris is going to be a superstar, but we also can’t rule out that he’ll continue to take steps to improve.
2. Adam Trautman, TE, New Orleans Saints
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2020, pick 105 | 393 offensive snaps
After finishing fifth in FCS with 14 touchdowns for Dayton in the 2019 college season, Trautman was looked at as a huge middle-of-the-field target who was going to have to deal with questions about his ability to transition against tougher competition. Running a 6.78-second three-cone drill at the NFL combine — a 97th percentile result among tight ends — caught eyes, and the Saints traded up for him in the fourth round.
While Trautman wasn’t a superstar in his first season, he produced at a high efficiency when he was actually targeted.
With Jared Cook released in a salary cap move and Josh Hill retired, the position is wide open for Trautman this year.
3. Justin Madubuike, DL, Baltimore Ravens
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2020, pick 71 | 260 defensive snaps
One of the most successful brands on the Football Outsiders top prospects list is the undersized defensive tackle.
When most draftniks didn’t cite Madubuike for his relative lack of size,that was a tacit admission that this kind of player has been successful and shouldn’t be as overlooked as they have been in the past. Madubuike didn’t quite hit the Geno Atkins benchmarks as far as athletic ability, but had plenty of overall potential blended with 11 sacks and 23 tackles for loss over his last two years at Texas A&M.
4. Logan Wilson, LB, Cincinnati Bengals
Age: 25 | Drafted: 2020, pick 65 | 343 defensive snaps
The first pick of the third round of the draft in 2020, Wilson started seeing heavy snaps in Week 5 but was knocked out of action by a high ankle sprain over the last three weeks of the season. The combination of the slow start and the injury is the only reason he’s still eligible for the list. Wilson showcased some intriguing blitz skills and paired a solid athletic profile with a great year as a run defender for Wyoming in 2019.
Bengals middle linebacker feels like a position that has been up for grabs since Rey Maualuga retired and Vontaze Burfict finally stopped getting second chances. Letting Nick Vigil walk in free agency opened up yet another void, and Wilson and Akeem Davis-Gaither were drafted into it without much help. Of the two, Wilson has the skill set to help on run downs more, but the blitzing and coverage skills are solid selling points for Wilson as well.
5. Alex Highsmith, EDGE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2020, pick 102 | 437 defensive snaps
Pittsburgh took a bet on Highsmith’s ridiculous 2019 season at Charlotte, where he improved from three sacks as a junior to 15 as a senior. Running a 4.7-second 40-yard dash at 248 pounds at the combine, Highsmith was a bit light for the NFL, but he had the combine metrics for which we look. SackSEER, our edge rusher projection system, had Highsmith with a top-10 “explosion index” — its ranking of a player’s athleticism — in the 2020 class.
Playing behind Bud Dupree and learning for a year was the plan for Highsmith, but when Dupree tore his ACL in Week 12, Highsmith immediately became an almost-every-down player for Pittsburgh. Dupree is now a Titan, so Highsmith’s closest competition on the edge is journeyman Cassius Marsh.
6. Kevin Dotson, G, Pittsburgh Steelers
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2020, pick 135 | 360 offensive snaps
The first non-combine invitee to be drafted in 2020, Dotson nevertheless had an incredibly successful senior year at Louisiana. He was a small-school standout for a run-heavy offense, and NFL questions persisted around moving up with the competition and his ability to pass set because of a lack of experience there.
Well, it was one season — and an abbreviated one at that — but in four starts, Dotson allowed zero sacks and blew zero pass blocks. David DeCastro missed time with an ankle injury in 2020, and the Steelers didn’t have the great offensive line you remember creating lanes for Willie Parker. They were abysmal last year, and change was naturally coming.
So they are turning over the entire interior line, essentially handing Dotson a starting job at left guard without a real competition. That speaks to the level of belief they have in him.
7. Jordan Elliott, DT, Cleveland Browns
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2020, pick 88 | 307 defensive snaps
We’re weighing a lot of disruption over actual sacks in putting Elliott this high on the list. Elliott had just 5.5 college sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss, but he consistently disrupted timing and put pressure on the quarterback by showing lateral quickness and gap-shooting ability. That was the trait that got him in front of everyone’s eyes and moved him up draft boards.
The Browns gave Elliott some small roles in packages last season behind Sheldon Richardson.
Both Richardson and Larry Ogunjobi moved on this offseason, leaving Cleveland’s interior line in a state of flux
8. Matt Hennessy, C, Atlanta Falcons
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2020, pick 78 | 225 offensive snaps
Hennessy was an NFL combine darling. He was in the 69th percentile or better in basically every agility metric in the combine — three-cone drill, 20-yard shuttle, 40-yard dash — as well as the explosion measured by vertical jump and broad jump. The question with Hennessy was more about how his weight and playing strength would translate to the NFL, as he’s fairly scrawny and does not have the arm length that line coaches prefer in the trenches.
With Alex Mack off to the 49ers, the Falcons sure haven’t provided much in the way of competition for Hennessy this offseason. They spent a fourth-round pick on rookie Drew Dalman. OTA talk was promising, with tackle Jake Matthews saying that Hennessy almost communicates too much now. There’s no reason why Hennessy can’t take the job and run with it.
9. Drue Tranquill, LB, Los Angeles Chargers
Age: 26 | Drafted: 2019, pick 130 | 385 defensive snaps
Tranquill was 13th on our list last year for the exact same reason he is ninth this year: He profiles to be a modern coverage linebacker. What happened last season: Tranquill took five snaps and was immediately lost for the season with a broken ankle. He was rehabbing with an eye towards coming back in the playoffs had the Chargers reached them, but alas, they did not.
10. Tyler Biadasz, C, Dallas Cowboys
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2020, pick 146 | 427 offensive snaps
The Cowboys suffered through some unfortunate times on the offensive line last year. Zack Martin was hurt. La’el Collins was hurt. Tyron Smith was hurt. Most importantly for Biadasz, long-time center Travis Frederick was dealing with Guillain-Barre syndrome. That turnover meant that Biadasz played 99% of the snaps from Weeks 5-8 before a hamstring injury claimed him as well. Biadasz allowed a sack and demonstrated that he’s got some pass-protection adjustments to make in the NFL in those five games.
Cowboys players and coaches were raving about Biadasz at OTAs.
11. Quintez Cephus, WR, Detroit Lions
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2020, pick 166 | 365 offensive snaps
A throwback, Cephus is a true outside power receiver. He slipped in the draft partially because of a 4.73-second 40-yard dash, but he also has an outside build at 6-foot-1 and 202 pounds, and he put up 23 bench press reps at the combine. It’s very easy to understand this type of player — it’s what D.K. Metcalf would be without game-changing speed.
Detroit’s depth chart at wideout is the major reason Cephus is as high on this list as he is. Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams are the presumed 1-2 punch here. Williams was released by the Raiders, and Perriman is on his fourth team in four seasons.
12. Bryan Edwards, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Age: 22 | Drafted: 2020, pick 81 | 259 offensive snaps
A big outside receiver prospect, Edwards was available in the third round despite good speed and an obscenely large target share at South Carolina, mainly on account of drops. Drops are at an interesting point in the NFL analytics spectrum. Obviously, it’s bad when a drop happens, but for a receiver to make a drop he has to get to the ball, and Edwards made it to a ton of balls.
13. Josh Jones, OL, Arizona Cardinals
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2020, pick 72 | 55 offensive snaps
While he wasn’t considered part of the headlining group of offensive tackles in last year’s class, Jones was a very common No. 5 behind Andrew Thomas, Tristan Wirfs, Mekhi Becton and Jedrick Wills.
And then he joined the Cardinals, who feel set at left tackle with D.J. Humphries. They also had long-time starter Kelvin Beachum win the right tackle job. Jones played only as a sixth-lineman or temporary swing tackle patch last year, and both players were retained. There’s not really an easy projection for Jones to play tackle unless one of those two players gets hurt.
Jones is part of a competition with Max Garcia and Brian Winters at guard going into training camp. The optimism is still there from the Cardinals.
14. Zack Baun, LB, New Orleans Saints
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2020, pick 74 | 82 defensive snaps
He’s only 238 pounds, and SackSEER saw him as more of a linebacker than a true edge player. SackSEER gave Baun a projection of just 12.6 sacks through his fifth season, citing his injury history, lack of production outside of his redshirt senior season and subpar jumps at the combine.
Sure enough, that’s kind of unfolding with the Saints.
15. Deonte Harris, WR, New Orleans Saints
Age: 23 | Undrafted in 2019 | 235 offensive snaps
As an all-purpose weapon for the Saints, Harris has taken quite a few end-arounds for big gains. He was an All-Pro returner in 2019 and was quite good in that area in 2020 as well. As a wideout, Harris was almost exclusively used on quick outs, screens, or underneath routes to try to take advantage of how slippery he is. He proved exceptional there, racking up 13 missed tackles last season. While we don’t have a ton of reps of him getting vertical on the route tree, there was some promise there at Assumption, and he does a good job coming back for the ball and tracking it.
As we noted above with Adam Trautman, there’s not a lot of receiving production returning for the Saints this year, especially with Michael Thomas missing the beginning of the season with continuing ankle issues.
16. Julian Okwara, EDGE, Detroit Lions
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2020, pick 67 | 69 defensive snaps
Okwara led all edge rusher prospects in 2020’s draft with an explosion index of 1.4 per our SackSEER system.
Okwara’s brother, Romeo Okwara, re-upped with the Lions this offseason, and the two have a plan to be bookmark ends. “So I definitely see myself getting double-digit sacks, my brother the same thing. I think that’s something that hasn’t been done,” Okwara told reporters in May. Well, a little someone named Trey Flowers might have something to say about that, but Okwara absolutely has the raw talent to live up to double-digit sacks. Health and opportunity? That we’re not so sure about yet.
17. Ashtyn Davis, S, New York Jets
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2020, pick 68 | 402 defensive snaps
Davis is someone who shined on scouts’ boards but also had some health concerns coming out of college
A new coaching staff is in town, and that could mean big things for Davis. Robert Saleh has a pretty stellar recent history as a defensive coordinator. However, Davis didn’t show at OTAs or minicamps while recovering from the foot injury, and the team signed LaMarcus Joyner as insurance at safety. There’s still a lot of upside here, and we can weigh that against how disappointing last year was, but the history of new coaches working with the previous administration’s underused draft picks is not promising.
18. David Long, CB, Los Angeles Rams
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2019, pick 79 | 225 defensive snaps
A second returning player on the list, Long’s 2020 opportunity for playing time was swallowed whole by an impressive run from Darious Williams. Not only did Williams take the third corner job, he ran away with it, getting a huge payday in the process.
Troy Hill fled to the Browns in free agency, and the Rams didn’t make any real stabs at replacing him beyond using a fourth-rounder on Central Arkansas corner Robert Rochell. “He’s done a great job,” Sean McVay said in May.
19. Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, Cleveland Browns
Age: 22 | Drafted: 2020, pick 187 | 268 offensive snaps
Those of you who like raw talent will very much enjoy the Peoples-Jones experience. At 6-foot-2 and 212 pounds, Peoples-Jones profiles as an outside receiver.
Peoples-Jones had a fairly successful rookie season, finishing second among wideouts with 10-49 targets and a 51.9% DVOA on a 70% catch rate. He surged a bit towards the end of the season as well, finishing with 55 or more yards in three of his last four games. It’s easy to understand why the Browns would be excited about what he showed in 2020, but with Odell Beckham back, it’s also fairly hard to see a clean fit for him in the starting lineup.
20. Matt Peart, OT, New York Giants
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2020, pick 99 | 150 offensive snaps
Somewhat of an afterthought in a tackle-rich class, Peart got hit with a critique of “why is a guy this physically talented rated a two-star recruit and sent to Connecticut?” Well, because he’s from Jamaica and didn’t play football until high school.
The reason Peart is as low as he is? We can’t say from our publishing deadline if he’ll win a fair battle against Thomas and COVID opt-out Nate Solder. Both of those guys have massive incentives to play if they are retained. Solder publicly said, “who cares who starts?” after Peart was the first-string tackle at OTAs. It certainly would make sense for the Giants to see what they have, as Solder wasn’t exactly great in 2019, but there are more questions here than there are at the top of our list.
21. Devin Duvernay, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2020, pick 92 | 347 offensive snaps
What Duvernay showed at the University of Texas is the ability to be a gadget wideout around the line of scrimmage. In his first season with the Ravens, Duvernay peaked at about 80% usage as the team dealt with a horrific COVID shortage in early December.
Unfortunately for Duvernay, the Ravens reinforced wideout pretty heavily this offseason. Sammy Watkins came on as a reclamation project, and the team also drafted Rashod Bateman in the first round. It’s hard to see Duvernay growing much out of his 2020 role in 2021 because there are people in front of him.
22. Marcus Epps, S, Philadelphia Eagles
Age: 25 | Drafted: 2019, pick 191 | 474 defensive snaps
There are two kinds of prospects that tend to hit the end of this list. There are the ones who have the pedigree but haven’t done much yet, and there are the ones without the pedigree who have been showing out whenever they get on the field. Epps is in the latter camp.
Drafted by the Vikings, Epps was claimed by the Eagles on waivers and used at free safety in December of 2019. Rodney McLeod was ahead of Epps on the depth chart last year, but after a torn ACL in December, Epps grabbed a major share of the snaps yet again by getting at least 56 percent of the snaps in each of Philadelphia’s last four games. Epps picked off two passes and defensed four more. And while we wouldn’t expect this to last at his size, Epps had the best run stop rate of any Eagles secondary player last year, at 64%.
23. Amik Robertson, CB, Las Vegas Raiders
Age: 22 | Drafted: 2020, pick 148 | 35 defensive snaps
When it comes to the Raiders’ cornerback depth chart, everyone seems to play poorly, and when Jon Gruden just decides he doesn’t like you, you’re gone. “The best guys are going to play,” Gruden said at OTAs. “I don’t care if it’s Nate Hobbs or Amik Robertson. I don’t care what round they came in. We’re going to play the best four or five guys and players will decide that.” It was a not-so-veiled message, aimed like a dodgeball at Damon Arnette’s head. The former first-rounder has disappointed so far.
New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is also reportedly high on Robertson, and as we have learned in the Gruden Vegas era, the depth chart is always up for grabs with one bad impression. Robertson has the talent to stick if he gets the chance to play next to Casey Hayward and Trayvon Mullen.
24. Lucas Niang, OT, Kansas City Chiefs
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2020, pick 96 | 0 offensive snaps
Coming out of TCU, Niang was regarded as pro-ready and a “help-now” right tackle prospect by NFL.com‘s Lance Zierlein.
Certainly you remember what happened to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Niang was supposed to be part of the crew drafted to deal with a potential injury to Eric Fisher or Mitchell Schwartz. But he opted out of the season under the league’s COVID plan, something that was rare from players on rookie contracts and particularly so among players who hadn’t played an NFL snap yet.
Niang comes back this year, along with Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, to a team that has gone hog-wild on offensive line this offseason.
25. Jonathan Greenard, EDGE, Houston Texans
Age: 24 | Drafted: 2020, pick 90 | 265 defensive snaps
Greenard transferred from Louisville to Florida and led the SEC in sacks in his senior year in the swamp under former Cardinals defensive leader Todd Grantham. What Greenard lacked in explosion in college, he made up for in heady play.
What the Texans have done is created a roster so full of mediocre edge rushers that we’re really not sure who they’ll pick to play. That’s the major reason Greenard is as low as he is. He’s not a high-ceiling superstar, but Greenard could develop into a positive second- or third-banana edge player with playing time.
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