The Daily Briefing Tuesday, August 30, 2022

AROUND THE NFL

DETROIT

Nick Shook of NFL.com on some Lions cuts:

The Lions, like the rest of the NFL, are in the midst of juggling their roster to cut down to 53 players. It won’t include a former first-round pick or a Hard Knocks: Training Camp with the Detroit Lions favorite.

Jarrad Davis’ second stint with the Lions is over. The team is releasing the linebacker, along with rookie wide receiver/kick returner Kalil Pimpleton, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Monday.

Davis arrived in Detroit via the 21st-overall selection in the 2017 draft and played in 14 games as a rookie, but never quite lived up to top-choice expectations. After four seasons with the Lions, he moved to New York, where he lasted just one year with the Jets before returning to Detroit this offseason.

The reunion made sense. Still a team attempting to rise from the lower third of the NFL, Detroit could use some experienced depth, and Davis was familiar with the franchise even if he hadn’t played for coach Dan Campbell. Instead, Davis failed to latch on, playing deep into Detroit’s Week 2 preseason win over Indianapolis as part of a defense dotted with hopefuls, not guaranteed members of the final roster.

As it turns out, Davis’ spot wasn’t guaranteed, either. His release is a bit of a surprise due to his standing as a former first-round selection, but those who have kept an eye on him shouldn’t be stunned. At 27 years old, Davis is free to find employment elsewhere.

The same is true for undrafted free agent and Hard Knocks focal point Pimpleton. The former Central Michigan receiver attracted attention from NFL Films’ cameras during the preseason thanks to his juggling ability and his slightly oversized pads, but struggled to consistently produce. Though he caught three of five targets for 23 yards in the Week 2 win over Indianapolis, Pimpleton failed to haul in a well-placed pass from David Blough that would have produced a first-half touchdown in the game. A week later, he caught another three passes on five targets for 31 yards.

The Lions are also waiving wide receiver Tom Kennedy, NFL Network Insider Tom Pelissero reported.

Detroit has multiple pass-catching options — 15 different players saw targets in Week 3 — and that’s without mentioning the franchise’s newest prized toy, Alabama receiver Jameson Williams. Ultimately, it’s a numbers game, and no m

MINNESOTA

RB ALEXANDER MATTISON has shadowed RB DALVIN COOK for the last three years.  But he wants to have a chance to be a #1 and it looks like Minnesota has found other options – and Mattison could have value.  Adam Patrick of TheVikingAge.com:

The Minnesota Vikings have reportedly heard from multiple teams around the NFL about the possibility of trading running back Alexander Mattison.

Despite the fact that the Minnesota Vikings already had Alexander Mattison and Kene Nwangwu in their running back room behind Dalvin Cook, the team still went out and selected former North Carolina running back Ty Chandler in the 2022 NFL Draft earlier this year.

During the last few weeks, Chandler has been very impressive in Minnesota’s preseason matchups, and it has apparently led to other teams around the league wondering if someone like Mattison could be acquired in a trade.

The trade speculation about Mattison was started on Monday after Heavy.com’s Matt Lombardo revealed that the Vikings are “listening to offers” for the running back.

Shortly after Lombardo’s report, the Pioneer Press’ Chris Tomasson confirmed that Minnesota is “open to trading” Mattison this year. Tomasson also revealed that at least 12 teams from around the NFL have contacted the Vikings about what it would take to acquire the running back in a trade.

As for what Minnesota could be looking for in return for Mattison, KSTP’s Darren Wolfson believes that a deal could potentially happen if the Vikings received a third-round draft pick or possibly a fourth-round selection in exchange for the running back.

Mattison is coming off a 2021 campaign where he rushed for 491 yards and three touchdowns in addition to catching 32 passes for 228 yards and a score. Despite setting a new single-season career-high with four touchdowns, his yards per rush (3.7) and yards per reception (7.1) were the lowest they’ve ever been in his three years with Minnesota.

Will Mattison still be the Vikings‘ No. 2 running back when they open up the regular season against the Green Bay Packers in less than two weeks?

WASHINGTON

Coach Ron Rivera with the first tentative estimate as to how soon RB BRIAN ROBINSON might be out as he recovers from being shot by a pair of street thugs.  John Keim of ESPN.com:

The Washington Commanders haven’t ruled out running back Brian Robinson’s return this season after the rookie was shot twice in his lower body Sunday.

Robinson remained hospitalized Monday, but there’s a chance he’ll be discharged in the afternoon. Robinson posted a story on his Instagram page saying the surgery went well.

Defensive tackle Jonathan Allen said he has heard Robinson might be discharged Monday. A team official told ESPN that a Monday discharge is possible.

Washington coach Ron Rivera said the team will determine whether to place Robinson on the non-football injury list after talking to doctors later Monday. Robinson would miss at least four games if the team makes that move.

Rivera was among a contingent of team officials, including co-owners Dan and Tanya Snyder, as well as a few players, who visited Robinson on Sunday night. Robinson’s aunt and uncle, an Air Force colonel stationed in the area, also were at the hospital.

“The doctors were very positive with him and he was very positive as well,” Rivera said. “He’s very fortunate. He’s doing well. It will be a matter of time before he’s back out here. There’s no timeline, but everything was very positive.

“It’s just about the healing process, and once he’s well enough to get on the field, doctors have to clear him and we’ll go from there. Everything is positive so far.”

Robinson was shot in an armed robbery attempt. Robinson had gone into the District of Columbia to get something to eat. The incident happened shortly before 6 p.m. ET in the 1000 block of H Street Northeast.

When police arrived on the scene, they located Robinson, who was suffering from “a couple gunshot wounds to his lower extremities,” according to Dustin Sternbeck, director of communications for the Metro Police Department in Washington. Robinson was treated by paramedics at the scene and transported immediately to a local hospital. One bullet hit his glute and another struck him in a lower leg.

Sternbeck said police have identified two potential suspects and recovered a firearm a short distance from where the shooting occurred. According to the police report, the incident was described as aggravated assault.

According to the report, Robinson wrestled away a handgun from one assailant but was shot by the other, who also was using a handgun; both suspects are believed to be teenagers, but the investigation is ongoing.

Rivera met with players before they went outside for practice early Monday morning.

“I just let them know it’s a somber day and we expected it to be a tough day so just hang in there,” Rivera said. “They rallied and practiced pretty doggone good. They were able to focus. I know their hearts are heavy right now because a lot of them are thinking about Brian. But we’re very fortunate, he’s very fortunate that a lot of the news is positive.”

Rivera said he and running backs coach Randy Jordan were watching film of Robinson when he got the phone call Sunday evening. Robinson soon called him to let him know he would be OK. Robinson, a third-round draft pick in April, had emerged this summer as Washington’s likely running back on early downs. Coaches liked how hard he ran between the tackles.

But they also liked his personality and how he approached his job.

“I’ve gotten several phone calls as a head coach, but this was one of the harder ones,” Rivera said. “First of all because he’s a heck of a young man. It kind of blindsided me a little bit.”

Quarterback Carson Wentz said the news jolted the players.

“It’s sobering for sure,” Wentz said. “This is real life. Things could have been a lot worse. It takes you away from football real quick. These are real-life issues and we’re not immune to it.

“To have moments like that, that are unrelated to football, gives you a sense of reality and makes you understand a much bigger picture and that there are more important things in life.”

ATLANTA

Ted Ngyuen of The Athletic looks at the tape, and declares rookie QB DESMOND RIDDER is ready for the next step:

Compared to (Malik) Willis, Desmond Ridder is on the opposite end of the quarterback-readiness spectrum. He’s a poised, polished prospect who played in a Cincinnati offense that utilizes many dropback concepts that translate to the pro game. What I loved most about Ridder’s game at Cincinnati was his aggressive mentality. He patiently waited for routes to develop and made aggressive decisions from sound reads. In the preseason, those traits translated. He made tough downfield throws from the pocket.

One of Ridder’s most impressive traits is his recognition of what constitutes an open receiver based on defender body positioning. This allows him to find windows when other quarterbacks might check the ball down.

The Falcons seem set on starting Marcus Mariota in the season opener, but unless he is playing at a high level and the Falcons are winning, they’ll want to find out what they have in Ridder this season so they can make an informed decision on how to maneuver around next year’s draft. Ridder looks like he’s mentally ready to handle being an NFL starter.

CAROLINA

Apparently former Jaguars WR LAVISKA SHENAULT was not beloved by the new coaching staff in Jacksonville. He has been shuffled off to the Panthers prior to being cut.  Eric Edholm of NFL.com:

Wide receiver Laviska Shenault Jr. is receiving a change of scenery in his third NFL season.

The Jaguars traded Shenault to the Carolina Panthers on Monday in exchange for a 2023 seventh-round draft pick and a 2024 sixth-round selection, NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero reported.

The Panthers announced they sent undisclosed draft compensation to Jacksonville in the deal.

Shenault, 23, has posted two NFL seasons above the 600-yard threshold, but he struggled in 2021, scoring zero touchdowns after reaching the end zone five times as a rookie.

Injuries, which date back to his college days at Colorado, have held Shenault back. He suffered hamstring and shoulder injuries the past two seasons with the Jaguars and saw his role reduced by the end of last season.

Carolina had been on the hunt for offensive talent, so the trade makes sense from that standpoint. Some thought the Panthers might have interest in Jets wide out Denzel Mims — who formally requested a trade last week — because Mims played for Panthers head coach Matt Rhule in college. But Carolina went in a different direction with another young talent.

Not done dealing, the Panthers also sent offensive lineman Dennis Daley and a 2024 seventh-round draft pick to the Titans in exchange for a 2024 fifth-round selection. Daley, a 2019 sixth-round pick of the Panthers, has played tackle and guard over the past three seasons with 21 starts in 34 games played.

TAMPA BAY

QB TOM BRADY was both crude and eloquent in his postgame presser Saturday night.

On his 11-day departure:

“It’s all personal. Everyone has different situations they are dealing with. We all have really unique challenges to our life. I’m 45-years old, man. There’s a lot of s___ going on. Just have to figure out life the best you can. It is a continuous process.”

On the rumors of a deal in Vegas vs. the reality of the deal in Tampa Bay:

“I read all these different stories about all these different places I was supposed to go or could have gone. I was only going to go to one place, which was here. I think this whole organization knows that,” Brady told reporters Saturday.

“All the conversations that we’ve had over a period of time, I chose the right place for me. And I’m very proud of the effort everyone’s put in to make the relationship work. Joel [Glazer] has been amazing. Jason [Licht] is a great friend of mine. Bruce [Arians], Todd [Bowles].”

Is this where Brady was for part of his absence?  Wouldn’t he have had to testify or otherwise provide info that the rings were phony?  The AP:

A New Jersey man who posed as a former New England Patriots player in order to buy and sell Super Bowl rings that he claimed were gifts to Tom Brady’s family was sentenced Monday to three years in federal prison.

Scott V. Spina Jr., 25, of Roseland was sentenced by a judge in Southern California’s Orange County.

In 2017, Spina bought a Patriots 2016 Super Bowl championship ring from a New England player who then left the team. Prosecutors said Spina paid the player — identified only as T.J. — with at least one bad check and sold the ring for $63,000 to an Orange County broker of championship rings.

“When Spina obtained the player ring, he also received the information that allowed the former player to purchase Super Bowl rings for family and friends that are slightly smaller than the player rings,” the U.S. attorney’s office said in a statement.

Spina then called the company that made the rings, claimed to be the former player and ordered three family-and-friend rings with “Brady” engraved on them, claiming they were gifts for Brady’s baby, prosecutors said.

“The rings were at no time authorized by Tom Brady,” according to the criminal complaint.

SAN FRANCISCO

With the QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO deal, the 49ers get an improved back-up and save on the cap.  Field Yates of ESPN.com:

@FieldYates

As of this morning, the 49ers had the least cap in the NFL with just a shade under $3M.

The Jimmy G. compromise not only keeps him around as their back-up, but creates significant cap savings that will help the team with in-season finances.

His prior cap number was $26.95M.

Nick Shook of NFL.com with details on the deal:

Garoppolo’s new deal is worth $6.5 million fully guaranteed with incentives that can push it to close to $16 million, Rapoport and Garafolo added. The reworked deal also will lower Garoppolo’s 2022 salary-cap number from $26.95 million to around $8.5 million.

NFL Network Insider Tom Pelissero reported that Garoppolo’s contract also includes a no-trade clause and a no-franchise tag clause. Thus, the QB controls where he goes and will be a free agent after this season.

BALTIMORE

QB LAMAR JACKSON has provided some insight into what would constitute a deal with the Ravens that he could sign.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

As the Ravens and quarterback Lamar Jackson close in on his Week One deadline for doing a long-term deal, Jackson has peeled back the curtain, a bit, on social media.

Responding to Twitter users who made comments about his status, Jackson dropped a few hints about what he may be looking for. And he seems to be looking for a Deshaun Watson-style fully-guaranteed deal.

After one user said the Ravens should give Jackson $250 million guaranteed and another responded by saying that “they already offered that” and Jackson wants more, Jackson said this: “No they didn’t.”

Then, after another user said, “As much as I love Lamar, a fully guaranteed deal would be bad business,” Jackson replied, “You don’t love Lamar.”

Clearly, the Ravens haven’t offered $250 million fully guaranteed to Jackson. The Browns gave $230 million to Watson, and that was enough to get Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti to publicly grouse about the development.

Although Jackson didn’t come out and say it, his two tweets strongly imply that, to Bisciotti’s dismay, Jackson wants a fully-guaranteed contract.

Frankly, he should. Although contracts for franchise quarterbacks rarely are ripped up prematurely, Jackson plays the position in a more dangerous way than other quarterbacks. The physical risk for him is real. Without guarantees, he’s at risk of being released.

And while the Ravens can try to dismiss the Watson deal as an aberration, it also can be called a new high-water mark. Which is what groundbreaking contracts typically are. The people pulling the purse strings always want to disregard a market-changing contract as an accident, not a trend. Because of course they do. And the Ravens may be inclined to hold firm with Jackson because the Cardinals successfully did it with Kyler Murray.

Lamar has every right to push for a fully-guaranteed deal, if he’s willing to assume the risk of walking away from whatever the Ravens are willing to do and play for $23 million this year with no guarantees for 2023 and beyond. And if he’s willing to do that, there will be no new contract this year, or possibly ever, in Baltimore.

Eventually, that contract could come from another team. In response to a comment thatLamar, who grew up in South Florida, possibly wants to play for the Dolphins the same way a Baltimore native would want to play for the Ravens, Jackson said, “I grew up a Dallas fan but Dolphins were second no doubt.”

He could have said something like, “I’m a Raven for life.” He didn’t. And all that that possibly implies.

Warren Sharp with a nugget on Jackson’s value:

@SharpFootball

the only player in NFL history with over 80 total TDs before the age of 24

TENNESSEE

The Titans are going with the young leg of rookie P RYAN STONEHOUSE.  It’s not that P BRETT KERN is washed up, it just that Stonehouse is special.

The Tennessee Titans informed longtime punter Brett Kern that they are releasing him, the team announced on Monday.

Kern, 36, has punted for the Titans since 2009 and has been selected to three Pro Bowls (2017-19) during his 13 seasons with the franchise. He was a first-team All-Pro in 2019. He averaged 44.8 yards per punt last season.

“Brett embodies everything we look for in players for the Tennessee Titans,” general manager Jon Robinson said in a statement. “He has been at the top of his game for a long time in this league, has been an outstanding leader for us, and has been an excellent representation of the Titans in our community. I’m blessed to have worked with him, and on behalf of the entire organization, we wish him all the best moving forward.”

Kern said in a statement posted to social media that “it has been an honor and a privilege to wear the two toned blue for the past 13 years.”

Kern, who re-signed with the Titans in March, was set to earn a base salary of $2.1 million this season, and $900,000 of his contract was guaranteed. The Titans will save $300,000 on their salary cap but will carry a dead-money charge of $1.55 million.

Ryan Stonehouse, an undrafted free agent signing from Colorado State, was competing with Kern and appears to have won the team’s punting job. He is scheduled to earn a base salary of $705,000 this season.

Stonehouse, 23, averaged 50.2 yards on 13 punts this preseason with a long of 68. Kern averaged 49.6 yards on five punts and had a long of 58 but did not punt in the Titans’ final preseason game Saturday.

“I knew it was different when I first saw him punt a ball in April,” Kern said of Stonehouse after the final preseason game. “I’ve been in the league a long time and seen about three or four people hit a ball like he did. I’m beyond blessed for the years I been here and the friendships I’ve made and the brothers I’ve had for the rest of my life I’m thankful for that.”

BUFFALO

With their son cancelled by the media and legal attacks of his alleging victim and her attorney and fired by the Bills, the parents of P MATT ARAIZA launch an emotional defense.  Ben Nagle of The Daily Mail brings us up to date:

The parents of axed Buffalo Bills kicker Matt Araiza have issued a ferocious statement defending their son amid allegations he was involved in the gang rape of a 17-year-old girl last year.

The 22-year-old punter was released by the Super Bowl favorite Bills on Saturday, and his career is in tatters as he awaits more news on the civil lawsuit filed last Thursday.

Amid the backlash, Araiza’s parents have now released a statement of their own to the media, revealing death threats sent to their entire family, and reiterating that their son should be ‘innocent until proven guilty’.

As reported by KUSI-TV, the statement reads: ‘The rule of law is innocent until proven guilty. That is not our experience. There has been a war waged against our son.

‘He has been tried and convicted in the media based on information released solely from the alleged victim and her attorney, much of it through social media. People have taken his information as factual, when it is not.’

The lawsuit, filed in San Diego County Superior Court, accuses Araiza, Zavier Leonard and Nowlin ‘Pa’a’ Ewaliko of gang-raping a then-17-year-old girl at a Halloween party at a home where Araiza had been living

The message goes on to explain the ‘vitriol’ Araiza has received since the allegations were made public, and questions why the former Bills star is the ‘only one receiving this kind of treatment’, appearing to nod toward the two others also accused of gang rape.

‘He has been extorted, discriminated against, harassed and the subject of multiple and continuous threats of violence and death,’ the statement continues. ‘He has been released from his job and our entire family continues to receive horrific threats of violence and death. We have all been canceled. Every member of our family.’

The staunch defense of their son ends by speaking about ‘salacious rumors growing as fact’, before adding: ‘There are multiple witness reports to deny the claims that are made against him. The legal system is designed to find the facts and make decisions. They should be allowed to do that.’

The lawsuit, filed in San Diego County Superior Court, accuses Araiza, Zavier Leonard and Nowlin ‘Pa’a’ Ewaliko of gang raping a then-17-year-old girl at a Halloween party.

The plaintiff, now 18, is identified in the complaint as ‘Jane Doe’ because she was underage at the time.

There is a criminal investigation into the allegations, according to the Los Angeles Times, which first reported the lawsuit. No arrests have been made and San Diego Police have not publicly identified any suspects.

Araiza would not be subject to the NFL personal conduct policy over the alleged rape because it took place in 2021, before he was a league player.

The lawsuit states that the teen had been drinking with friends when they decided to go to the party on October 17 and she was ‘observably intoxicated upon arrival.’ She became separated from her friends and was approached by Araiza who offered her a drink, according to the lawsuit.

She believes the drink ‘not only contained alcohol, but other intoxicating substances,’ the complaint said.

She told Araiza, who was 21 at the time, that she was a high school senior, according to the lawsuit. She alleges he then led her to a side yard where he asked her to perform oral sex and then had sex with her before taking her to a bedroom in the home.

There were at least three other men in the room, including Leonard and Ewaliko, according to the complaint. The lawsuit states that Araiza threw the teen onto the bed and she went in and out of consciousness while she was being raped. It added, ‘but she does remember some moments from the horrific gang rape.’

After an hour-and-a-half, the teen ‘stumbled out of the room bloody and crying,’ according to the complaint. Her nose, belly button, and ear piercings had been pulled out.

She immediately told her friends about the rape and the next day reported it to police and underwent a rape exam, according to the lawsuit. Officers coached her on calling Araiza, which she did 10 days later as detectives recorded it, according to the complaint.

During the call, Araiza acknowledged having sex with her, the lawsuit states, but later, when she asked him ‘And did we have actual sex?’ he responded ‘This is Matt Araiza. I don’t remember anything that happened that night’ and hung up.

But before getting off the phone, Araiza did tell Doe to get tested for chlamydia.

So, on or about November 10, the investigating police had the complaint and the phone call, yet more than 9 months later, no criminal charges.

Who are the multiple witnesses the Araizas are referring to?

While some are saying that if the 21-year-old Araiza committed a crime by having sex with the 17-year-old – are we really saying that every NFL player who had sex after their 18^th birthday with someone younger than 18 should lose their job and be cancelled?

So the question has to be rape component – did that happen much as she and her attorney have alleged?

MIAMI

Warren Sharp, who can now be found at NFL on FOX, looks at QB TUA TAGOVIALOA:

He entered the NFL rehabilitating a catastrophic hip injury and knew he wouldn’t start entering the season. Then COVID-19 happened, and all of his meetings because virtual.

His offensive coordinator, Chan Gailey, came out of retirement to design the offense for starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, as the two had previously worked together with the Jets. Despite no proper offseason, no reps with the “1s” and an offense designed for Fitzpatrick, Tagovailoa was inserted as the Dolphins’ starter midseason.

Gailey came out later questioning why the team switched to Tagovailoa midseason and later noted that the offense that left-handed Tua operated was still designed for the right-handed Fitzpatrick. Not to mention, coach Brian Flores frequently pulled Tagovailoa late in games to insert Fitzpatrick, fracturing his confidence under the guise that “Tua didn’t have the two-minute offense down well enough” to be in those situations.

Heading into 2021, his first season as a full-time starter, Tagovailoa finally had a healthy offseason and took all the QB1 snaps in camp. But he had no clue who his offensive coordinator would be, even two weeks before the season. The coordinators changed playcalling duties during the season, throwing off the quarterback even further.

Tagovailoa then suffered rib fractures at the beginning of Week 2, missing most of that game and the next three games (the Dolphins went 0-4 in those four games). Once he returned, the team had two losses by three points or fewer before he fractured the middle finger on his throwing hand in a Week 8 loss to the Bills. On top of that, his No. 1 receiver (DeVante Parker) missed seven games with injury.

Over both years together:

– His wide receivers had the worst separation in the NFL

– His pass catchers had the second-worst yards after the catch (YAC)

– His offensive line ranked as one of the worst in the NFL in protection

– His running backs ranked No. 30 in efficiency

You can’t expect any quarterback to succeed under these conditions. When I’m betting on teams to exceed expectations, I look below the data to understand the context behind how the stats were earned. Tagovailoa was in a difficult situation, but what about this upcoming season?

He has better receivers, better linemen and better, more consistent coaching. He’ll get more receiver separation and YAC, better protection, and a more reliable running game. I expect many people will be surprised by how Tua looks this season. But not me, and hopefully not you. Expect it.

In the preseason, Tua was not nickel-and-diming like last under Brian Flores.  Sharp, from his twitter account:

@SharpFootball

analyzing Tua’s target depth 👀

2021 preseason:

7.5 air yds/att, 36% of att traveled 10+ yds

2021 regular:

7.1 air yds/att, 27% of att traveled 10+ yds

somewhat similar, ranked #37 of 42 QBs last yr

but the 2022 preseason?

12.0 air yds/att, 50% of att traveled 10+ yds

with Mike McDaniel coming from San Francisco, it’s worth noting Jimmy G’s air yds/att the last 3 seasons:

6.5

6.3

7.5

preseason is about trying things & experimenting & features very low sample sizes, but it is interesting to observe what they had Tua working on in live action

NEW ENGLAND

Once the Patriots start putting their big brains to work on game plans, the offense will perk up is the contention from Coach Joe Judge.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick said this week that he doesn’t think preseason games are an accurate indicator of what a team will do in the regular season and a lot of the team’s fans are likely hoping that proves to be the case.

The Patriots offense was unimpressive throughout the summer, which added reason for many to believe that the team went down the wrong track by installing Joe Judge and Matt Patricia as their top offensive coaches. Neither man has a background on that side of the ball and there’s been no shortage of attention paid to mistakes by the unit this summer.

On Monday, Judge signed on to Belichick’s comments about the preseason by noting that the team doesn’t game plan for those games the way they will in the regular season. He also said that he wasn’t buying into the overall narrative that’s developed around the team’s offense this offseason.

“I’m not a big guy to take one small clip of something and over magnify it,” Judge said, via Khari Thompson of Boston.com. “I say all the time, the NFL is a league of extremes. It’s one week, what’s the storyline. We’ve got a week in between the games, in this instance we have two weeks in between the games. So it’s what’s the storyline that’s going to run? You can’t chase that. You can’t chase the narratives. You’ve got to show up every day.”

There’s nothing Judge or anyone else can say in order to change the discussion about the team at this point. The only shift will come if the team performs at a high level in games and the first chance to see if they’re capable of that will come against the Dolphins on September 11.

THIS AND THAT

ERNIE ZAMPESE

This from The Athletic on the passing of former NFL offensive coach Ernie Zampese:

Longtime NFL coach Ernie Zampese has died. He was 86.

Zampese was the recent recipient of an inaugural Award of Excellence from the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He spent 24 years as an NFL coach and was known for building impressive offenses. 

He spent the bulk of his career serving as an offensive coordinator for the Rams and Cowboys. He won a Super Bowl with Dallas 1995 and the team ranked in the top five in total offense in two of his four seasons. The Rams finished in top 10 in passing yards in five of his seven seasons leading their offense.

Zampese also guided the Patriots’ offense in 1998 and 1999.

He worked with Don Coryell, recently named a finalist for the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s Class of 2023, in 1986 with the Chargers as well as John Robinson, Joe Gibbs, Barry Sanders and Pete Carroll during his career.

Zampese’s son, Ken Zampese, is the quarterbacks coach for the Washington Commanders.

FANTASY BREAKOUT RUNNING BACKS

Jake Ciely of The Athletic with names to know at the draft table this week at the running back position:

As always, breakout “rankings” carry a bit of “how big is the jump from the previous value?” So a jump from RB12 to RB5 is of greater value — in this piece, particularly — than leaping from RB3 to RB1. It’s not where you end up, it’s the journey! Got it? Ready to dive in? Let’s get this thing going!

Rookies and non-qualifiers

Damien Harris, NE — After finishing RB11 last year, there isn’t much room to improve, and that’s before we start the yearly worry about a full-on Patriots committee. The early offseason hype seems to be romanticizing what Rhamondre Stevenson did in his rookie season. Yes, he looked quite good, but Harris was the better player, doing more on fewer touches, regularly. The concern lies with James White (or if Pierre Strong — who Gene Clemons wrote about here — takes that role as a rookie), as White had six receptions in his two healthy games. Harris, Stevenson and White (or, more specifically, The James White Role) prevent anyone from reaching the Top 10, and even Harris only reached 11th due to 15 touchdowns. I’m taking Harris over Stevenson, but I’m not taking either to break out (more) in 2022.

Javonte Williams, DEN — Williams had a great rookie season, finishing as RB16 despite sharing the load with Melvin Gordon and only getting 246 touches. If Gordon hadn’t re-signed — and the Broncos didn’t add a significant piece similar to Gordon — Williams would have been atop the breakout list, as a top 5 finish was in the cards. As it stands, Williams will command a bit more of the work in 2022, but being a fringe RB1 isn’t as exciting … or breakout-ish.

Devin Singletary, BUF — Yes, Singletary saw bell-cow work late in 2021. No, I don’t expect that to continue, especially with the drafting of James Cook. If the Bills used any running back as a bell cow, there would be RB1 upside, as evidenced during Singletary’s Week 15-18 run, but again, Cook will eat into the workload given 1) his passing game ability, and 2) Singletary isn’t built for 300 touches. When you share a backfield with Josh Allen, the ceiling is already capped, and more of a split means less likelihood for Singletary to build off last year.

Breece Hall, NYJ; Kenneth Walker, SEA; Dameon Pierce, HOU; Tyler Allgeier, ATL; and other rookies — As mentioned, rookies don’t qualify for my “breakout” definition, but a few could reach the top 20. Hall is the most obvious and best talent in the draft. Walker likely sees a Broncos-like (near 50/50) split for the Seahawks with touchdown reliance. Pierce and Allgeier should be the early-down options for questionable teams/offenses. Don’t overlook Isaiah Spiller, as Austin Ekeler could use a lighter workload to stay healthy, and if he doesn’t, Spiller has RB1 potential as Ekeler’s replacement (my post-draft fantasy football rankings are here if you want to get deeper into the context of it all).

Top-5 breakout running backs

1. Cam Akers, LAR — If Akers can return from his Achilles injury in under six months — the norm is 9-12 — what can’t he do? Well, Akers might not have the ability to be a bell cow or return to pre-injury form. Before you panic, I said, “might.” Akers made a miraculous recovery, but he averaged just 2.4 YPC after his return with his best showing being 13-for-48 (3.7) against the 49ers. Akers did add 11-for-86 receiving (7.8 YPR), but Darrell Henderson has shown his passing-game value, despite having low numbers there as well. The upside for Akers lies in his talent, and if Sean McVay gives him 65 percent or more of the work, an RB1 finish is well within reason. However, Akers has Henderson and now Kyren Williams (rookie) vying for touches in an offense with just 420 rush attempts (39.7 rush percent) last year (T-9th fewest rushes). Buy the upside of Akers but at a reasonable cost given the risk of shared and limited touches compared to other potential RB1s.

2. Travis Etienne, JAX — We didn’t get to see Etienne in the NFL after a preseason Lisfranc injury, but if he’s back to 100 percent, his talent is undeniable and gives him a chance to be a top-20 running back. This is what we know from his college days: explosive, power to shake tacklers, great acceleration and cuts, more cut-and-go/straight-line type than dance-and-move (his speed can prevent cutbacks and moves).

The Jaguars were solid in run blocking before swapping Andrew Norwell (62.7 PFF run grade, 2021) for Brandon Scherff (73.7) and drafting Luke Fortner. Additionally, Doug Pederson replaces Urban Meyer, and Pederson had Miles Sanders lead his backfield with 179-818-3 rushing and 50-509-3 receiving as a rookie before 164-867-6 and 28-197-0 in 12 games in 2020. Pederson isn’t afraid to use a true lead and have Etienne sit in the 250-touch range. With that volume, Etienne’s ability and the collection of talent in Jacksonville (yes, I’m serious), a top-15 finish — as Sanders had in 2019 — is attainable.

3. D’Andre Swift, DET — Swift was the other running back already in the 2021 piece, and honestly, he already broke out … a bit … but there’s room for more! We know how talented Swift is, by both watching him play and his metrics, including a top-10 breakaway percent (30.8, per PFF) on the rushing side and 16th best yards per route run (1.41, per TruMedia) in the passing game. Swift averaged 13.1 and 13.8 FPPG in his first two seasons with 5.22 yards per touch (rushing and receiving). Jamaal Williams continues to be an above-average backup, but Swift has top-10 talent … if he can stay healthy. That’s the only issue in Swift’s way, as the Lions’ offense is set up to be the best in years and a modest 1.0 FPPG uptick for Swift would push him into the top 10.

4. J.K. Dobbins, BAL — The first of two returnees from 2021, Dobbins barely lasted (article-wise) before suffering a season-long injury and being cut from the 2021 version of this piece. Dobbins was coming off a rookie season with 6.0 YPC, posting 805 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground. He chipped in just 12-for-120 receiving, but that still led the backfield. The truth is, there won’t be heavy passing-game value in a Ravens backfield, but 2020 included Mark Ingram rushing 72 times, and Gus Edwards actually out-carried Dobbins 144 to 134.

Dobbins is also a skilled pass blocker and that will give him the edge in snaps, pushing this toward a potential Browns-like backfield where Dobbins finishes with around 17-18 touches per game and Edwards 14-15. Dobbins averaged 1.02 fantasy points per touch in 2020 and has the upside to repeat that level of success in 2022. You can do the easy math, and all it would take is for Dobbins to see 206-plus touches for him to reach the top 10 and 210-plus points… that is, if he’s ready for the season, as the medical reports seem cloudier and more worrisome by the day.

5. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI — Okay, let’s grab a breakout who isn’t in the RB1 — even top 15 upside —conversation. While there is no way Sanders finishes with 163 touches for 912 yards and zero touchdowns, there is no guarantee he gets back to the upside of his first two seasons, particularly with the Eagles losing faith in his passing-game work. After 50 receptions on 63 targets as a rookie and 28 on 52 in 12 games (2020), Sanders had just 34 targets in 2021. He did turn them into 26 receptions, but it was his lowest YPR (6.1) and pass snap percentage (55.2) after 10.2 and 7.0 YPR and 65.6 and 63.4 pass snap percentage. Meanwhile, Gainwell had 69.0 pass snap percentage, 7.7 YPR and 1.39 YPRR (yards per route run) to Sanders’ 0.81 mark.

Gainwell isn’t only a pass-catching back, as he averaged 4.3 YPC with a low 11.8 percent of his runs going for zero or negative yards, and an Elusive Rating (41.4) alongside the likes of Antonio Gibson, D’Andre Swift, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Chase Edmonds. Gainwell only had four games with more than six carries, where he had 9/37, 13/27, 12/54 and 12/78, including a rushing touchdown in three of those. Gainwell finished as RB41 last year on 101 touches (1.06 FPPT). Get him 145 touches, and we’re already inside last year’s top 25, topping Myles Gaskin’s 151.1 points with 153.7.