The Daily Briefing Tuesday, August 31, 2021

Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians said Sunday that despite his team’s recent uptick in COVID-19 cases, he believes the NFL’s proposition of testing vaccinated players every seven days instead of every 14 days “won’t help at all.”

The NFL proposed this change in testing cadence during a media briefing Thursday and is awaiting a response from the NFLPA.

“I don’t think it would help at all,” said Arians, whose team had some of the league’s lowest numbers last season but currently has four players on the reserve/COVID-19 list. “I was fine with the other protocols. If your team is 100% vaccinated, I don’t know why you have to test at all.”

Arians also expressed concern over mild symptoms keeping players out for a longer period of time due to NFL rules. All four of Tampa Bay’s players who have tested positive — defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh, kicker Ryan Succop and offensive linemen Nick Leverett and Earl Watford — are fully vaccinated, sources told ESPN.

“The virus issue is concerning because everybody has very, very mild symptoms. Things that you wouldn’t miss a day of work with in your life. But now you’re out 10 days,” Arians said. “So that’s got me concerned … that it can be transmitted that easily. If I sneeze and I test positive — that’s the biggest concern for me right now.”

While those who are asymptomatic and are vaccinated need only two negative tests 24 hours apart to return to action, those who experience mild symptoms must wait a mandatory 10 days and complete a three-day progressive exercise protocol under the team medical staff before return to full participation.

Arians still expects all four players to return in time for the NFL Kickoff Game on Sept. 9 against the Dallas Cowboys. But he’s concerned about additional positive tests that could pop up given Florida’s status as one of the nation’s hot spots for cases.

“Ten days is still the maximum so we’ll have everybody back, but now these four days off and retesting now with the new protocol, who knows?” Arians said.

Last season, just four starters — running back Ronald Jones, left tackle Donovan Smith, outside linebacker Shaq Barrett and inside linebacker Devin White — missed a combined six games between the regular season and postseason due to being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. That was a major reason they won the Super Bowl.

While Arians enacted strict rules for players traveling to the third preseason game at the Houston Texans, including no family visits to the team hotel and no restaurants, he won’t be doing that while the players are at home — at least for now. The NFL allows for vaccinated individuals to go out to restaurants open to the public while traveling, but not those who have been unvaccinated; they must wear masks indoors at the facility and in crowds.

However, the NFL also gives teams the authority to implement stricter protocols in cities experiencing outbreaks.

DETROIT

QB TIM BOYLE has a broken thumb.  The AP:

Detroit Lions backup quarterback Tim Boyle broke his right thumb in the team’s preseason finale and needs surgery.

Lions coach Dan Campbell made the announcement Monday, adding the team is hopeful it was not a season-ending injury. Boyle was hurt in Friday night’s loss to the Indianapolis Colts.

Detroit acquired starting quarterback Jared Goff, a pair of first-round picks and a third-rounder from the Los Angeles Rams in a trade for Matthew Stafford.

Third-year pro David Blough becomes Detroit’s No. 2 quarterback, heading into a Week 1 matchup at home against the San Francisco 49ers.

Ahead of Tuesday’s deadline to make final cuts, the Lions released veteran receiver Breshad Perriman, waived receivers Victor Bolden, Damion Ratley, nose tackle Miles Brown, cornerback Mike Ford, safety Alijah Holder, offensive lineman Evan Heim and waived/injured offensive linemen Tyrell Crosby and Dan Skipper.

MINNESOTA

Does TE IRV SMITH, Jr. have the serious kind of meniscus injury – or the kind a warrior like QB TOM BRADY can play an entire season with?  Adam Patrick ofTheVikingAge.com:

During his press conference on Monday, Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer might have hinted at the length of time Irv Smith Jr. will miss after his upcoming surgery.

Deflating was certainly how many fans of the Minnesota Vikings felt on Sunday after the news dropped about tight end Irv Smith Jr. needing to miss some time due to surgery on his meniscus.

Smith just had a great training camp this summer to go along with a nice performance in the Vikings‘ final preseason game last Friday. The excitement surrounding the tight end’s potential this year couldn’t have been much higher.

The news about Smith’s injury really felt like it came a bit out of nowhere on Sunday. It’s something that has to be fixed though, so now, Minnesota is just hoping that the tight end won’t have to be sidelined for very long this season.

Doesn’t sound like Minnesota Vikings are preparing for the worst with Irv Smith Jr.

How long Smith will be out of action for this year will be determined by the type of surgery he will have on his meniscus.

A full repair of the meniscus would likely result in the Vikings tight end missing the entire season, while a trim of the meniscus would only keep him off the field for around four weeks at the most.

During his press conference on Monday, Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer was asked about the two different types of surgical procedures that Smith could be having on his meniscus. In regards to the operation that could potentially knock the tight end out for six to eight months (full repair), Zimmer said that he’s “never heard the six to eight months thing.”

While the Vikings head coach never gave an estimate to how long the team thinks Smith could be sidelined, Zimmer claiming to not be familiar with the recovery time from the more serious surgical procedure actually seems encouraging.

DALLAS

The Cowboys are down to 2 QBs on their active roster – and the one not named DAK PRESCOTT is COOPER RUSH.  Todd Archer of ESPN.com:

The Dallas Cowboys have settled on Cooper Rush as quarterback Dak Prescott’s backup, at least for now.

As the Cowboys get to the 53-player roster limit on Tuesday, they released Garrett Gilbert, who started three of their four preseason games, and Ben DiNucci, a seventh-round pick in 2020.

Rush returns to the spot he held from the 2017-19 seasons.

“I just think he’s shown that he can run the complete offense,” owner and general manager Jerry Jones said on 105.3 The Fan in Dallas. “Credit to him. He had some tough competition. Those guys didn’t cut him any slack. He’s had a lot of reps. All of our quarterbacks had because of the absence of Dak. All of those things make us feel real comfortable here.”

Rush has thrown three passes in his career and none since 2017. The Cowboys released him in favor of DiNucci a year ago but re-signed him to the practice squad after Prescott suffered a season-ending ankle injury.

In the preseason, Rush completed 29 of 46 passes for 272 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Gilbert threw for 301 yards on 28-of-50 passing with one touchdown and no interceptions. DiNucci completed 35 of 66 passes for 348 yards with two touchdowns and four interceptions.

Gilbert and/or DiNucci could come back to the Cowboys’ practice squad.

NEW YORK GIANTS

The Giants offense didn’t click in the preseason finale and QB DANIEL JONES takes the blame.  Dan Benton of USA TODAY:

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones, who was appearing in his first live game action of the year, looked solid on Sunday night.

Well, except for that one pass, anyway…

In typical Jones fashion, he made several “wow” throws and displayed the talent that has so many in the organization high on him. But he also made a boneheaded decision on a throw to tight end Evan Engram that ended in an end zone interception.

You know, the type of “no” throw that has so many outside the organization low on him.

“I look at that play independently, like I look at all of them. Obviously, a bad decision there. I gotta be smarter and throw the ball away in that situation, third-and-goal at the one. So, I look at each play independently and learn something from each of them,” Jones told reporters after the game.

Some speculated that Engram was supposed stop his route and sit in the middle of the coverage with defenders on each side of him, but Jones refused to blame his teammate. Instead, he took responsibility for the turnover — one of the many that has been intended for Engram in recent years.

“No. He did a good job there and I’ve got to make a better decision,” Jones said when asked if Engram made a mistake.

Jones also refused to blame his offensive line for their poor play, instead shouldering the entire burden himself.

“I think they were certainly ready to go early and I thought we did a good job for the most part. I gotta do a better job getting the ball out of my hands and moving the pocket and finding the guy,” said Jones, who sacked twice and hit six times.

“I think those guys are playing well together and have done a good job throughout camp communicating and getting on the same page. Across the board, I think there’s things we’ve got to look to improve and sure up at every position, so I think those guys up front have done a good job.”

Talk about taking the Eli Manning route…

At the end of the day however, it doesn’t matter whose fault the sacks and turnovers are. The Giants have to get things on track and fix their issues quick, fast and in a hurry. Week 1 is less than two weeks away.

CAROLINA

QB WILL GRIER is among the Panthers cuts per Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Panthers announced 13 cuts on Tuesday morning and settled their backup quarterback job in the process.

Will Grier was one of the players waived by Carolin and that leaves P.J. Walker as the only player behind Sam Darnold on the depth chart. Grier was a third-round pick in 2019 and made two starts as a rookie, but did not appear in any games last season.

The Panthers also waived wide receiver Omar Bayless, running back Spencer Brown, defensive lineman Frank Herron, offensive lineman Mike Horton, cornerback Jalen Julius, wide receiver Keith Kirkwood, linebacker Christian Miller, offensive lineman Aaron Monteiro, wide receiver C.J. Saunders, tight end Stephen Sullivan, and offensive lineman Sam Tecklenburg.

Linebacker Josh Bynes was released, which leaves the Panthers with 58 players on the roster. They’ll have to get down to 53 players by 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday and one of the moves they’ll make will involve moving cornerback A.J. Bouye to the suspended list.

NEW ORLEANS

An encouraging report on the Superdome after Hurricane Ida.  But, now about the power for the lights…

The Caesars Superdome appears to have survived Hurricane Ida without any major structural damage, Jeff Duncan of the New Orleans Times-Picayune/Advocate reports.  This according to Doug Thornton, the vice president of stadiums for ASM Global, which manages the stadium for the state.

Superdome general manager Zane Collings and staff conducted a walkthrough damage assessment of the facility Monday morning and initially found only one “little window leak, Thornton said.

“The Dome is fine,” Thornton said. “There’s no major damage that we have found.”

Thornton said the staff has not been able to assess the roof of the stadium yet but said the building did not experience any leaks during the storm Monday. He added that the roof system is different from the adhesively applied roof that infamously failed during Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Damage assessments on other parts of the 2-million-square-foot complex were still being conducted Monday afternoon, Thornton said.

TAMPA BAY

The Buccaneers are re-structuring the contract of WR MIKE EVANS:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are working on a contract restructure for star wide receiver Mike Evans, adding cap space for another potential championship run, sources told ESPN on Monday.

This will be a simple conversion to lower Evans’ team-high $16.637 million cap hit. Tampa Bay needs the help. The latest NFL Players Association salary-cap report lists the Bucs with $270,339 in cap space.

Evans, 28, has three years left on a five-year, $82.5 million extension. He is due $12.25 million in base salary, which the Bucs can convert to a signing bonus to prorate the money against the cap.

Evans — known as a top-10 wideout in the NFL coming off seven consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and 61 total touchdowns — has restructured his deal in the past to aid the team’s financial outlook.

Tampa Bay has six veteran players with cap hits of at least $10 million, so the team has options to create additional space for spending. Center Ryan Jensen, cornerback Carlton Davis and defensive end William Gholston are among the team’s 2022 free agents. They could be candidates for a contract extension at some point.

– – –

Mr. August, TE TANNER HUDSON, will be among the Buccaneers cuts.  Zach Goodall of SI.com:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are waiving tight end Tanner Hudson, according to Greg Auman of The Athletic. This marks the Buccaneers’ second roster cut ahead of Tuesday’s 53-man roster deadline, as the team released cornerback Antonio Hamilton earlier on Monday.

Subject to waivers, another team could put a claim in for Hudson’s services this week. Should Hudson, 26, clear waivers, the Buccaneers could add the fourth-year tight end to their practice squad.

Hudson led the Buccaneers in receiving over the team’s first two preseason games this year, hauling in ten passes for 122 yards with Tampa Bay’s second and third-team units. A member of the Buccaneers since going undrafted in 2018, Hudson compiled five receptions for 67 yards in his red and pewter career to date.

Despite his abilities as a receiver, Hudson had been critiqued by head coach Bruce Arians more than once throughout the preseason for his “regressed” blocking skills. With Arians’ criticisms being loud and clear, the writing appeared to be on the wall regarding Hudson’s release even though he was impressive as a receiver this August.

Actually, in three preseasons with the Buccaneers (no preseason in 2020) covering 11 games, Hudson had 34 catches for 418 yards and 3 TDs.

We would expect he would be of interest to other teams, such as the Vikings who have their top tight end IRV SMITH, Jr. headed to knee surgery.

ARIZONA

CB MALCOLM BUTLER is dealing with a “personal situation” that has his career on the edge.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Cardinals list Malcolm Butler as their starter at right cornerback. Butler might never play a down for them, however.

The one-time Pro Bowler is dealing with a personal situation that has him mulling retirement, Mike Garafolo of NFL Media reports.

Butler signed a one-year deal worth up to $6 million with the Cardinals this offseason after the Titans released him. The team was counting on Butler to replace Patrick Peterson as the team’s top cornerback option.

Butler intercepted Russell Wilson late in Super Bowl LXIX to seal the Patriots’ victory to end the 2014 season. In four seasons with the Patriots and three with the Titans, Butler has 17 interceptions, 82 pass breakups, three sacks and five forced fumbles.

He finished last season with four interceptions, tying a career high, and totaled 14 passes defended and 100 tackles in 16 games.

Butler is a two-time Super Bowl champion who was selected to the Pro Bowl in 2015 and earned second-team All-Pro in 2016.

SAN FRANCISCO

Best wishes to linebackers coach Johnny Holland who is battling cancer.  Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com:

San Francisco 49ers linebackers coach Johnny Holland is stepping away from the team to battle cancer for the second time in the past three seasons.

Holland, who was initially diagnosed with multiple myeloma (a cancer of plasma cells) in 2019, released a statement revealing that the cancer has returned and he will be away from the 49ers beginning Sept. 6, to begin another round of treatment at nearby Stanford Medical Center and the University of California-San Francisco Medical Center.

“In sharing the details of my diagnosis, my desire is that I can be an advocate and beacon of hope for those who are battling cancer to help remind them that we’re all in this together,” Holland said in the statement.

At a practice last week, every member of the 49ers organization, including coaches, wore T-shirts with the letters “I.G.Y.B.” on the back and Holland’s initials just above them. The letters stand for “I Got Your Back,” which has been a team mantra since coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch arrived in 2017.

Because Holland, 56, and the 49ers went through his previous cancer diagnosis in 2019, Shanahan said the logistics of handling his absence are already in place. Of bigger concern is making sure Holland, who said in the statement he hopes to return to work as soon as possible, doesn’t rush back and puts his health first.

“Johnny likes coaching, he likes being here, he loves what he brings to the team and he loves what the team gives him back and that’s something that he really enjoys to be around,” Shanahan said. “And our biggest thing is just making very clear to him and [his wife] Faith that that’s great and all and he’ll always have that opportunity any time that he ever wants it. But I also know that the most important thing for him to do is to attack this treatment as hard as he can and focus on that, and we’ll have his back and we’ll always be here when he’s done with it.”

– – –

Luckily, the first game of the season is still 12 days away.  Cam Inman of Bay Area News Group:

Rookie quarterback Trey Lance chipped a bone in a finger and is out at least the next week, coach Kyle Shanahan announced Monday.

Lance’s right, throwing hand struck the helmet of blitzing linebacker Max Richardson just before halftime of Sunday’s preseason win over the Raiders.

“It’s a microchip of a bone that’s off. He chipped it, which is a small chip fracture, which is worse than a jam and why it not just going to heal on its own,” Shanahan said on a media conference call.

“He can’t take snaps and do all that stuff right now,.” Shanahan said. “We’re just going to rest it for seven days and that should make it heal, and hopefully it’ll be good next Monday when we get into practice.”

Shanahan said the injury won’t impact the 49ers’ preparations for the Sept. 12 regular-season opener at Detroit, preparations that don’t heat up until next Monday. That said, the 49ers will practice this Wednesday and Thursday before they and every NFL team get a three-day weekend.

Jimmy Garoppolo looks more poised than ever to remain the 49ers’ starting quarterback, though Shanahan has yet to officially announce that.

Lance rotated with Garoppolo through the first two series of Sunday’s 34-10 rout. Afterward, Lance downplayed what he initially thought was a jammed finger, until ensuing tests revealed otherwise.

PITTSBURGH

A practice fight of epic proportions at Steelers camp.  Charean Williams ofProFootballTalk.com:

It was all the talk in Pittsburgh on Monday, with Steelers coach Mike Tomlin the only one not talking about the fight that broke out during practice. Tomlin feigned ignorance when asked about the brouhaha between receiver Chase Claypool and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.

But Brian Batko of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports multiple players confirmed the fight.

 “I think we’re still in that training camp mode where it’s that competitive edge. People are getting chippy,” Steelers defensive lineman Tyson Alualu said, via Batko. “I think it’s just part of the game. I don’t think it’s anything you have to look into. It’s part of the game. It’s part of football. But we understand we don’t want — especially our star players — we don’t want anyone getting hurt. We’ve got to be more smart.”

The team huddled post-practice, but Tomlin declined to discuss his message. Batko said it was about players being smart and making sure no one is injured.

Claypool and Fitzpatrick were not made available to the media following practice, and it is unclear what began the fracas.

“I just saw a big pile. I didn’t really see what went on,” Steelers left guard Kevin Dotson said. “You come out here and you’re pretty much fighting a person for two hours. Eventually, something might happen. That’s been happening since little league.”

Dotson said he thought it began with Claypool and Fitzpatrick, adding, “They’re two of our biggest competitors, so I kind of almost expect it to happen at least once.”

Tomlin wouldn’t even acknowledge a fight happened, saying he had “no idea” what a questioner was referring to when asking about the scuffle.

Judging by the reported chippiness at Monday’s workout, Steelers players apparently can’t wait to face the Bills on Sept. 12.

NEW ENGLAND

Not only did QB MAC JONES win the QB job, he got his chief competition run out of town.  Chase Goodbread of NFL.com:

The quarterback battle in New England ended abruptly Tuesday when the Patriots released veteran Cam Newton, according to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, per a source.

The move means the starting job belongs to rookie first-round pick Mac Jones.

Both quarterbacks performed well in the preseason, although Jones got the lion’s share of action during games. Newton missed a week leading up to the club’s final preseason game after a misunderstanding of COVID-19 protocols forced him off the practice field and into the NFL’s five-day re-entry cadence. Coach Bill Belichick declined to say, at the time, whether Newton’s absence had damaged his chances of winning the job.

Jones was the No. 15 overall pick of the draft out of Alabama.

Interest in Newton around the league figures to be high. The 2015 NFL MVP started 15 games for the Patriots last year, his first in New England.

The DB disagrees and does not figure interest in Newton will be “high.”  Sure, he may sign somewhere, but at this time of the year we would think most teams are set at starter and won’t think Newton’s unique skill set makes for a good plug and play backup.

THIS AND THAT

WINNERS

Analytics expert Cynthia Frelund says these are the players who create the most wins in the NFL.  We can’t say that her findings are that surprising:

Inspired by the idea of wins above replacement in baseball and real plus-minus in basketball, I created a metric that measures the contribution of each player, position group and side of the ball for every snap in an NFL season. I’m calling it win share to reflect the fact that 11 players are working together on the field for each team at any given time, meaning that the “share” part is a really big factor — and the interconnectedness took a lot of time to model out.

The metric is built around the number of times a player impacts first downs and touchdowns that lead to wins or losses, either by creating such first downs and touchdowns on offense or by preventing them on defense. On-ball impact (like when a wide receiver is targeted directly) and off-ball impact (like when a wide receiver draws coverage away from other players on the field, resulting in a better matchup for a different pass catcher) are both measured. Win share adds up all of the positive on- and off-ball plays and subtracts the negative ones in order to help attribute a value to each player and phase of the game, as represented by the number of wins each player is responsible for on an individual level in a given season. Personnel on the field, game situations and matchups are all factored in, to the degree that it’s possible.

Now the important part: Who will lead the NFL in win share in 2021? Below, you’ll find the top five projected win share leaders among quarterbacks, non-quarterback offensive players and defensive players, listed along with their projected win shares for the 2021 NFL season. I have added some notes about units, too. Let me know what you think! You can reach me on Twitter @cfrelund.

QUARTERBACKS

1 – Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs · 6.32 wins

Mahomes ranked in the top five in passing touchdowns (35) and passer rating (116.1) when he wasn’t under pressure in 2020, according to Next Gen Stats (min. 100 pass attempts). A big driver in his league-leading win share number is that he likely won’t be under pressure as often this season, given his retooled offensive line. And maybe teams should think twice about blitzing him. Mahomes has been blitzed on just 20.7 percent of dropbacks since 2018, the lowest rate in the NFL, but he averaged 9.1 yards per attempt when facing the blitz over that same time period, which was the highest average in the NFL. Last season, he earned 13 touchdowns with zero interceptions and a 134.2 passer rating against the blitz, leading the league in those categories.

Computer vision shows that the Chiefs’ offense spreads the field vertically and horizontally more than any team in first halves of games, which helps explain why Mahomes’ targets averaged 3.8 yards of separation last season, the second-most in the league. However, in the red zone, when space was constrained, his targets averaged 2.9 yards of separation, which ranked 15th. With that in mind, look for the Chiefs to try to create space for their weapons even more frequently to establish the game tempo early on.

Another key takeaway here is that Mahomes has his eye on the quick strike and he knows how to put the ball in the end zone in a hurry. He threw 12 TDs on deep passes last season (tied for second-most in the league), six on deep play-action passes (most) and 13 on the run (most). One last thing that’s a bit more predictive: The Chiefs used play-action on 18.6 percent of dropbacks in Weeks 1-6 (ranking 26th) last season, compared with 33.3 percent in Weeks 7-17 (second-highest). My models show that the improved O-line and its run-blocking potential creates the opportunity for increased rushing (or short passes that essentially function as a run) productivity, which will make play-action an even stronger tool in Mahomes’ tool belt.

2 – Aaron Rodgers

Green Bay Packers · 6.11 wins

The reigning MVP is set to remain at the top of his game in 2021. Rodgers threw 20 touchdown passes off play-action last season, which is seven more than this total from 2016 to 2019 combined. No QB had a higher passer rating on play-action passes last season than his 136.0. Rodgers attempted a deep pass on 14.1 percent of attempts, the second-highest rate in the league, and earned 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions on such passes, the best TD-to-INT ratio in the NFL. He netted a 128.7 passer rating on deep passes, which was the third-best mark in the league.

When under pressure, Rodgers earned five touchdowns and zero interceptions with a 92.6 passer rating (fourth-highest passer rating). When not under pressure, he led the league with 43 touchdowns and a 126.1 passer rating. As for the big disparity between the totals, Rodgers was only under pressure on 16.8 percent of dropbacks, the third-lowest rate in the NFL. This number forecasts to stay very low — or even improve — this season with most of the starting O-line remaining intact and the potential for increased play-calling utilizing multiple backs.

The other reason for the optimism, despite the loss of Corey Linsley in free agency and absence of David Bakhtiari (returning from ACL tear)? No QB has helped his O-line more than Rodgers over the past five seasons. I’ve been refining a new metric about the impact the QB has on his O-line. It’s not perfect yet, so I’ll wait to give you the magnitude in terms of win share, but he’s the best by a good margin when it comes to making the front five look good.

3- Tom Brady

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 6.071 wins

Remember when there was a debate about whether Brady could still get the job done throwing deep? After some early struggles in 2020, he put that one to rest. His 9.3 air yards per attempt paced the league in 2020, as did his 89 deep passes (20 or more air yards). Brady posted his highest number of completions (31), yards (1,099) and touchdowns (9) on deep passes since NGS began tracking them in 2016. He improved throwing deep as the season went on, going 17 of 30 for 594 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception in Weeks 12-17. With a level of continuity on the coaching staff and roster that is rarely seen in the modern NFL, the forecast for Brady remains strong in 2021. Play-action could be an area of increased use and efficiency this season. In 2020, Brady used play-action on 18.4 percent of dropbacks, his lowest use rate in five seasons, but he earned a 127.0 passer rating on such attempts (second-best in the league) and netted 10.4 yards per attempt (most in the NFL).

4 – Russell Wilson

Seattle Seahawks · 6.070 wins

You know the metric I’m developing that captures a QB’s ability to help the offensive line? Like Aaron Rodgers, Wilson ranks highly — as in, within the top three — in this area over the past five seasons. Wilson was pressured on just 24.5 percent of dropbacks, his lowest rate in the past five seasons, per Next Gen Stats, but when he was under pressure, he thrived, notching the best under-pressure TD-to-INT ratio (8:0) and second-highest passer rating (94.7) in the NFL. All 13 of his interceptions came when he wasn’t under pressure (that’s the highest number of non-pressured picks in the league), likely because defenses that did not bring pressure were able to cover Wilson’s pass-catchers more tightly. Wilson paced the league in total deep touchdowns (13) and deep passing TDs while on the run (4), but his success in that facet of the game was front-loaded. In Weeks 1-5, Wilson was blazing hot, with eight deep TDs (most in the NFL) against zero picks, but in Weeks 7-17, he cooled off, notching five TDs against four picks (tied for most in that span) on deep throws. He also completed the same number of deep passes in his first five games last year as he did in Weeks 7-17. Looking to the upcoming season, Wilson’s deep passing forecasts to look more like it did early in 2020.

5 – Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills · 5.99 wins

Here is my favorite Allen fact: Not only was he the second-best off-platform thrower (that is, when his lower body and hips weren’t in an ideal alignment) in the NFL in 2020, but he improved the most in that area from 2019 to ’20. NGS shows that Allen evaded pressure on 26.1 percent of pressures last season, the highest rate in the league. While on the run, he completed 53.2 percent of throws, with eight TDs (tied for third-most) against zero picks and eight deep completions (most in the NFL). On throws of 10-plus air yards, Allen notched 20 TDs (tied for fifth-most) and nine interceptions, with a completion percentage of 56.2 — +8.2 percent over expectation from that range. His improvement in completion percentage over expectation on deep passes was +17.2 percent, the second-largest gain from 2019 to 2020. On quick passes, Allen averaged 6.8 yards per attempt, with a passer rating of 127.0 (seventh-highest), a completion percentage of 84.7 (best in the NFL), 12 TDs and only one pick. No team passed the ball on first down more than the Bills did last season, and Allen’s success on quick passes helped create more first downs and touchdowns. As for pressure, Allen logged the best air-yards-per-attempt average (13.2 yards per throw) while under pressure in the league. So far, Allen has had five or more touchdown passes under pressure in each season of his career. Part of the forecasted success of Allen is due to continuity among his teammates and also his offensive coordinator, Brian Daboll.

NON-QB OFFENSIVE PLAYERS

1 – Christian McCaffrey

Carolina Panthers · 2.29 wins

McCaffrey played a whopping 1,004 offensive snaps in 2019, his last healthy season. He was the only RB to surpass 900 snaps, and he played on 93.4 percent of Carolina’s offensive snaps. While it’s unlikely he’ll be asked to shoulder that kind of load in 2021, it is worth noting that McCaffrey’s fatigue (erosion in speed and response time from the first quarter to the fourth quarter) was the lowest for any player in the NFL in 2019. After injuries limited him to three games in 2020, it stands to reason that he falls into a higher probability category to return to top form based on a résumé of maintaining exceptional physical conditioning. Keep in mind that McCaffrey earned the most touchdowns on rushes inside the tackles (10) and gained 5.0 yards per rush (second-most, min. 75 carries inside the tackles) on such runs in 2019, per NGS. He also gained 218 rush yards over expected that season, fourth-most in the league. The ability for head coach Matt Rhule and OC Joe Brady to leverage McCaffrey in both the run and pass game drives his exceptional value. Carolina’s efforts to fortify the offensive line this offseason, combined with strong value at the wide receiver position, helps forecast ample space for McCaffrey to work with in 2021.

2 – Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans · 2.19 wins

Henry’s 412 rushing yards over expected in 2020 were the most in a single season since NGS started tracking the metric in 2018. This season, between the addition of Julio Jones and the wrinkles new OC Todd Downing could add to the scheme, Henry is likely to face fewer stacked boxes, which is a good thing. However, NGS shows that stacked boxes (eight or more defenders) weren’t really a problem for Henry. He averaged 5.9 yards per rush (third-most among RBs with at least 60 carries vs. loaded boxes) and ran for 10 touchdowns (tied for league lead) against them in 2020. Henry also forced the most missed tackles last season (75, per PFF) and his 1,490 yards after contact were the most by any player in a season since PFF began tracking the stat in 2006. As you might expect, NGS shows that rushing inside the tackles is a hallmark of Henry’s game. He rushed for 10 TDs (most in the NFL) and 6.3 yards per carry (third most) when running inside the tackles last season, which is part of what drives a strong forecast of continued success for the Titans star.

3 – Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints · 2.05 wins

NGS shows Kamara netted a league-best 6.6 yards per rush inside the tackles (min. 25 such rushes) and 12 rushing touchdowns outside the tackles (most in the NFL) last season. He also reached the end zone five times against stacked boxes in that epic Week 16 performance against Minnesota, the most such TDs in a single game in the NGS era (since 2016). As for his receiving prowess, Kamara was targeted on 33.1 percent of routes run (second-highest; min. 65 targets) and averaged 2.3 yards per route (second among RBs) in 2020. Kamara ran 88 screens, which is almost twice as many as the next-closest player (49 for James Conner). PFF also shows he forced 20 missed tackles on receptions (tied for third most). There will be a new QB1 in New Orleans this season, with Jameis Winston expected to succeed the retired Drew Brees, but Kamara’s versatility and efficiency make him a foundational piece with even more forecasted value than he provided last year.

4 – Davante Adams

Green Bay Packers · 1.94 wins

Adams led the league with 3.1 receiving yards per route last season (min. 150 routes), per NGS. He aligned in the slot on 29.9 percent of his snaps — his highest slot rate in the last five seasons — and it paid off, as he caught 83.6 percent of slot targets (second-highest rate in the NFL). He also earned seven of his 18 touchdowns out of the slot (third-most). On outbreaking routes from the slot, he caught 23 of 24 targets for 160 yards and five touchdowns, which was both the most receptions and touchdowns on such routes. Adams’ versatility, as evidenced by his big uptick in slot alignment efficiency this past season, forecasts to help him match or even exceed his 2020 output with the Packers’ continuity on offense only helping matters.

5 – Dalvin Cook

Minnesota Vikings · 1.92 wins

Cook has rushed for 19 TDs outside the tackles since 2019, the most in the NFL over that span, and his +252 rush yards over expected in 2020 ranked third among RBs, per NGS. In fact, Cook and Derrick Henry are the only players to rush for 10 or more touchdowns inside and outside the tackles since 2019. He and Henry were also the only backs to gain more than 1,000 rush yards after contact last season, according to PFF. Computer vision shows that Cook’s ability to reach his top speed after contact is third-fastest among backs since 2019, which helps solidify his spot on this list.

DEFENSIVE PLAYERS

1 – Aaron Donald

Los Angeles Rams · 2.34 wins

No player has a greater delta between his win share and the next-closest player at his position than Donald (0.36 wins). NGS shows that his 71 QB pressures in 2020 tied for league lead with T.J. Watt, and my computer vision shows Donald was double- or triple-teamed at a higher rate than Watt. NGS clocks Donald at a 0.86-second pass rush get-off time, the fastest among interior defensive linemen. Donald has finished in the top three in total QB pressures each season since 2016, and computer vision shows he has been double- or triple-teamed at a rate about five percentage points higher than the next-closest player.

2 – Chase Young

Washington Football Team · 2.00 wins

In Weeks 11-17 last season, Young netted 26 pressures (tied for third-most). With a full NFL offseason under his belt, his burst speed (measured as the speed he reaches in the first 3 yards traveled from the line of scrimmage) should be even more of a problem for opposing O-linemen. That has to be a scary thought for offensive coordinators, as he clocked the third-fastest burst speed from Weeks 11-17. He caused four turnovers from pressures as a rookie (tied for fourth-most), and we could see his production improve in that area, too, given his increased comfort with NFL speed.

3 – Myles Garrett

Cleveland Browns · 1.99 wins

Garrett posted 56 QB pressures last season (tied for fourth-most in the NFL), and he caused turnovers on a league-high seven of those plays, which doubled his career total to 14 since 2018 (most in the NFL). Garrett already has two games with three turnovers caused by pressure in his career, which helps illustrate one of my favorite computer vision metrics for him: rush style win. OK, I need a better name for it, but here’s what it represents: Some edge rushers win with a bull rush but aren’t as effective with a pass-rush move like a spin. So I measure hips, arms and shoulders to approximate where there is movement. Then I look to see what happens in sequence (what percentage of each type of rush, along with when and what happens during each rush) and measure the O-linemen, too, to add context. Garrett often bull rushes early. In fact, on early downs with at least 5 yards to go, he bull rushed at the second-highest rate at the position last season. Then on third down, and especially third-and-long, he makes it look a lot like a bull rush (same alignment) but instead uses something like a spin or swim move (anything where his body changes direction). This throws O-linemen off balance and leads to QB pressures that are more likely to be disruptive. I asked an NFL head coach about this, and why other people don’t do it as often, and he said not everyone has the ability to control their body to that degree.

4 – DeForest Buckner

Indianapolis Colts · 1.98 wins

The Colts allowed 3.1 yards per carry with Buckner on the field versus 4.9 without him on the field in 2020, per NGS. In the passing game, his 10.0 quarterback pressure percentage was seventh-highest among interior defensive linemen. Buckner’s value increases even more with another season of work with DC Matt Eberflus. He could easily be a top-three 3-technique.

5 – Jaire Alexander

Green Bay Packers · 1.88 wins

In 2020, Alexander averaged 7.5 yards of pre-snap cushion per coverage snap (third-most in the NFL); however, he closed in on his targets and only allowed 1.8 yards of separation per target when in off coverage (when there are 5-plus yards of cushion). PFF counts him as allowing only a 67.0 passer rating (fifth-lowest) and 50 percent completion percentage (tied for second-lowest) in coverage.

TEAMS LIKELY TO DECLINE IN WINS

Last week, Bill Barnwell offered us five times likely to have improved win totals.

Today, the inverse (edited for space) with all of them being teams with very high totals last year and slight declines expected.

I wrote last week about the five NFL teams I expect to improve in 2021. Let’s go in the opposite direction and discuss the five teams I expect to decline this season. This is the fifth edition of this column, and over the past four, I’ve nominated 20 teams to decline. Sixteen of those teams have failed to match their record from the prior year. Three have matched their records, while one managed to improve by a single game. The average team of the 20 has dropped off by 3.4 wins from its record the previous season.

The 2020 version of this column, though, was the least accurate of the bunch. The Packers maintained their 13-3 record from 2019, while the Seahawks became the first team to improve, going from 11-5 to 12-4. On the other hand, the Saints declined by a win from 13-3 to 12-4, while the wheels came off the wagons for the Texans, who dropped from 10-6 to 4-12.

This season, I’m nominating five teams to take at least a small step backward in 2021. I expect several of them to still be playoff contenders and even think one of them will win the Super Bowl. Keep in mind that the NFL is moving to a 17th game and each team is getting an extra chance to win during the 2021 season, so to defy the odds, they’ll need to win one more game than they did last season. Let’s start with a team that felt unbeatable until the final game of the 2020 campaign:

Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)

2020 point differential: plus-111

Pythagorean expectation: 10.5 wins

Record in games decided by seven points or fewer: 8-0

FPI projected strength of schedule: 12th easiest

Before we even start, let’s be clear: Barring a serious injury to Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are going to be very good this season. FPI projects them as the favorites to win the Super Bowl, and they will be my pick, too. Nobody is suggesting they are going to suddenly drop to 8-9 or forget how to score tons of points. No team in the NFL has a higher floor or a higher ceiling heading into 2021.

With that being said, Kansas City is going to need to win 15 out of 17 games to top its 2020 record. That’s a tall order for any team, even one with the sort of track record this one has with Mahomes under center. The Chiefs were actually 14-1 with Mahomes a year ago before losing a meaningless game in Week 17 with Chad Henne as their starter. Mahomes has gone 38-8 as an NFL starter, which rates out to about 14 wins per 17 games.

So, why the pessimism? To start, they weren’t as good as their 2020 record. DVOA actually ranked them as the NFL’s sixth-best team, in part because they played the eighth-easiest slate of opponents. FPI ranked them as the best team through the end of the regular season, but the Chiefs didn’t dominate like they had in previous years. They outscored their opponents by just under a touchdown per game, a figure that rises to 8.5 points per game if we exclude the Henne loss. That’s down from 9.7 points per game over Mahomes’ first two seasons as the starter in 2018 and 2019.

To get to 14-2 last season, they needed to go 8-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer. There’s no track record of any team being able to sustain anything like that in close games for an extended period of time. That list includes the 2018-19 Chiefs and Mahomes, who was 9-7 in games decided by seven points or fewer before 2020. And while that list includes a couple of games in which late scores by the opposing team made the final score, Kansas City was in real danger more often than not:

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Nothing extraordinary happened in those games, but it’s not difficult to imagine a scenario in which something breaks differently in one or two of them and the Chiefs go from 14-2 to 12-4. It might seem like Mahomes always has the answer at the end, but Kansas City lost games just like this to the Colts, Titans and even the Texans in 2019.

The reality is that just about every team that wins 14 or more games in a season needs to be a little lucky. The most Pythagorean wins we’ve seen from a team since 1989 was 13.8, a mark hit by four teams, most recently the 2007 Patriots. Twenty-one teams between 1989 and 2019 won 14 or more games in a season, and many of them had superstar quarterbacks, including Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Steve Young. Those 21 teams won an average of 10 games the following season, declining by an average of 4.2 wins in the process.

The 2007 Patriots declined from 16-0 to 11-5 because they lost Brady to a torn ACL in Week 1. Mahomes was healthy during the 2020 regular season, although he did suffer a knee injury for a stretch in 2019 and had to leave KC’s divisional-round win over the Browns last season. If the Chiefs were to lose Mahomes for any length of time, their chances of improving on their 14-win mark from a year ago would obviously fall drastically.

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The Chiefs appearing on this list shouldn’t be taken as a sign that there’s something wrong with them or that there’s a flaw that will keep them from being the Super Bowl favorites. It’s just an acknowledgement that it is tough for any team to win as many games as it just did. No team has a better chance of winning 15 games than Andy Reid’s, but the Chiefs are still not likely to do so.

Buffalo Bills (13-3)

2020 point differential: plus-126

Pythagorean expectation: 10.6 wins

Record in games decided by seven points or fewer: 4-1

FPI projected strength of schedule: Seventh easiest

After hitting the Chiefs, let’s get to the team they beat in the AFC Championship Game. The Bills have seemingly done little wrong after hiring coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane several years ago, with virtually every one of their personnel moves turning to gold. Last season saw their biggest bet pay off in full, as Josh Allen emerged as a bona fide superstar quarterback in his third season. Allen made the single biggest leap in completion percentage in modern league history between 2019 and 2020, giving Buffalo the franchise quarterback it has sought since the heyday of Jim Kelly.

I don’t have any reason to think that McDermott, Beane, Allen and the rest of the roster are suddenly going to stop figuring things out, but 13-3 overstates the Bills’ level of performance in 2020. They went 4-1 in one-score games, and while their lone loss was a game they nearly won (the Hail Mary game against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals), they also had a couple of close games that narrowly went their way. In Week 3, they beat the Rams on a touchdown with 15 seconds to go after a pass interference call extended the game on fourth down. In Week 8, they beat the Patriots after recovering a Cam Newton fumble inside the red zone in the final minute while the Pats were down 3.

The Bills didn’t play a ton of those close games, but they also didn’t blow out teams by huge margins until the final three games of the season, when they stomped the Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins by a combined 88 points. Before that, McDermott’s team had gone 10-3 while outscoring teams by an average of just under four points per game, owing in part to a 42-16 loss to the Titans in Week 5. The Bills were the kings of winning games by just over a touchdown, winning six by between eight and 11 points, which tied an NFL record alongside the 2014 Cardinals. They won only those three season-enders by at least 14 points, a mark 10 other teams topped in 2020. Great teams typically blow out the competition.

As always, it’s good to look at history and see how teams with this sort of gap pan out. The Bills beat their Pythagorean expectation by 2.4 wins. Thirty-six teams from 1989 through 2019 outperformed their win expectancy by somewhere between two and three wins. The following season, 24 of those 36 teams declined. Six maintained their prior record, while another six improved. The average team in the group declined by 2.7 wins and played slightly worse than what its Pythagorean expectation would have suggested. It’s tough to consistently beat broader league history.

Another way to think about this is to measure how Buffalo did versus preseason expectations. According to the data at Pro Football Reference, the Bills topped their preseason over/under by an even four wins. The Dolphins and Packers were the only other teams to top their preseason projection by that sort of total. Going back through 1989 and looking at teams that beat their projection by four or more wins, you’ll find 68 teams. Those teams declined by an average of 3.7 wins the following season and came up just under a full win short of their projected over/under.

Could the Bills raise their level of play even further and play something more like a 13-win team from snap to snap? I think so. It’s impossible to rule out Allen getting even better after making unprecedented strides across the first three seasons of his pro career. They brought back just about every key contributor from their 2020 roster, as the only player who took at least half of the snaps on offense or defense who didn’t return for 2021 is guard Brian Winters. And after ranking 14th in Adjusted Sack Rate last season, they addressed a possible position of weakness in the future by using their top two draft picks on edge rushers Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham. The Bills might have taken over for the Saints in sporting the league’s most impressive roster, and they were even able to bring back offensive coordinator Brian Daboll after expecting to lose him to a head-coaching gig.

At the same time, owing to the money Buffalo has needed to spend to lock up successful draft picks such as Allen, Tre’Davious White and Dion Dawkins, the roster is thin in other places. The offensive line depth is a concern, which is worrisome given the injury history for starters Mitch Morse and Daryl Williams. Beane hasn’t made a significant addition to the secondary, leaving Levi Wallace in a competition with 2020 seventh-rounder Dane Jackson for an obvious weak cornerback spot across from White. The deepest tight end room outside of Tampa has been thinned out and will count on Dawson Knox to take major strides in Year 3 (barring a late trade for Zach Ertz). The receiving corps as a whole is shaky beyond Stefon Diggs and counting on Gabriel Davis to take a step forward while hoping Emmanuel Sanders is still a starting-caliber wideout at 34.

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The most obvious player with the ability to impact the Bills in 2021, of course, is Allen. There’s no reason to expect him to take a major step backward and turn into the guy who struggled mightily at times during his first two seasons, but even the great quarterbacks who made accuracy leaps in Allen’s league gave back some of their gains the following year. Last season was the first time in Allen’s life post-high school in which he was more accurate than an average passer at the college or pro level. I don’t think he’s about to fall below average, but he needs to be an MVP candidate again for the Bills to maintain their record from a year ago. My guess is that he’s somewhere closer to very good, and that the Bills end up in the 11-win range as a result.

Cleveland Browns (11-5)

2020 point differential: minus-11

Pythagorean expectation: 7.7 wins

Record in games decided by seven points or fewer: 7-2

FPI projected strength of schedule: Fourth easiest

It’s tough to pick on the Browns. No fan base has been more beleaguered or had to deal with more over the past 30 years; a steady stream of bad quarterbacks would be one thing, but losing the franchise altogether for several years puts them on their own level. The Browns are on the right path and have two of the smartest minds in the game running things in coach Kevin Stefanski and general manager Andrew Berry. I also generally liked what they did this offseason, as the organization addressed weaknesses at linebacker and safety.

I just don’t think they’re as far along as that 2020 record looks on paper. By just about any measure we have, the Browns squeezed more wins out of their performance than we should have expected. DVOA ranked them 18th last season, finishing just below the 4-12 Falcons. FPI had them finishing the regular season in 17th. Point differential essentially pegged them as just below a .500 team.

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Cleveland was able to outplay its point differential or underlying play-by-play level of performance by pulling out close victories. It was 7-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer, and many of those came against the league’s worst teams. The Browns beat the Texans by 3 points in Week 10 and lost to the Jets by 7 (in a game in which they were without almost all of their receivers due to COVID-19 protocols) in Week 16. In Week 12, they needed to stop a 2-pointer to keep the Jags from tying a game late in the fourth quarter and then pulled the same thing off against a much better Steelers team in Week 17. In Week 11, they were up by just 2 points against the Eagles in the fourth quarter before eventually pulling away, and in Week 7 they blew a lead against the Bengals with 1:04 to go, only for Baker Mayfield to drive them downfield for a game-winning touchdown. Teams that post winning seasons by stringing together close victories against bad teams, such as the 2016 Dolphins or 2018 Cowboys, often disappoint the following season.

The biggest upgrade the Browns made after the 2019 season might have been with offensive line coach Bill Callahan, who had done wonders for Dallas and Washington in years past. The same Mayfield who looked lost and ready to bail from the pocket for most of 2019 looked secure and steady for the vast majority of 2020. This offense was dominant in the red zone, averaging 5.6 points per trip inside the 20, the third-best mark in the league. And while Callahan couldn’t have made this happen, that offensive line was crucially healthy, as Cleveland’s five starters were in the lineup for 73 of 80 games. Wyatt Teller was the only lineman to miss more than one regular-season start.

It will be tough for the Browns to sustain those elements of their performance. \

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There are two reasonable arguments I can see for the Browns dramatically improving their level of play versus what we saw a year ago. One is Mayfield, who will be entering his second season in the Kubiak/Shanahan scheme Stefanski employs. We’ve seen other quarterbacks make major strides in their second seasons as part of this offense, with both Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers leveling up and winning league MVP. There’s a scenario in which Mayfield makes a similar sort of leap in Year 2 and the Browns never look back.

The other possibility is that they were more impacted by COVID-19 earlier in the season than teams that didn’t change their coaching staff during the 2020 offseason. The other four teams with new head coaches went a combined 24-40, including Washington, which went 7-9 and still won the NFC East. Stefanski & Co. had to conduct minicamps and install their new schemes over virtual meetings before training camp began, and it might have impacted their team’s performance; the Browns were 5-3 with a point differential of minus-31 before their bye and 6-2 with a point differential of plus-20 afterward.

At the same time, fans point to endpoints like that every year, and when your underlying performance doesn’t match up to your level of play, it almost always shows the following year. The Cowboys didn’t suddenly learn how to win close games after they traded for Amari Cooper, even if they rolled off a bunch of narrow victories in the second half of 2018. Adam Gase didn’t figure something special out about those Dolphins in 2016. The Browns have a better case than those arguments, but it’s not enough to make up a 3.3-win differential between their Pythagorean expectation and win-loss record. It wouldn’t shock me if they improved their level of play and still finished with a less impressive win-loss record.

Green Bay Packers (13-3)

2020 point differential: plus-140

Pythagorean expectation: 11.1 wins

Record in games decided by seven points or fewer: 3-2

FPI projected strength of schedule: Third toughest

What can I say? I’m a glutton for punishment. The Packers are on this list for the second consecutive season, although the story is different than it was a year ago. This seems like a good time to take a look back at what we saw as the problems with their 2019 formula heading into 2020 and examine what happened. Here’s why they were going to regress (and what actually happened):

They didn’t blow out their competition. The 2019 Packers went 13-3 but outscored their competition by just under 4 points per game. That’s remarkably low for a team with as many wins as they had in 2019. The 2020 team didn’t repeat that formula but instead raised its level of play significantly; Green Bay went 13-3 while outscoring its opponents by more than 9 points per game.

They needed to rely on winning the close ones. The 2019 Packers went 6-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer, which was way out of line with Aaron Rodgers’ career. Their close-game performance regressed to the mean in 2020, as they went 3-2 in one-score games. It wasn’t enough to slow them down, though.

They weren’t likely to be as healthy, especially on defense. The 2019 Packers lost Oren Burks in the preseason and then saw their 11 expected starters miss a total of just four games. The 2020 team had more players miss meaningful time — Kevin King and Christian Kirksey were each out for five games, while Kenny Clark missed three — but actually finished with fewer defensive adjusted games lost than the 2019 team.

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They won’t sweep the NFC North again. The Packers went 6-0 against the North in 2019. They didn’t sweep their division rivals again in 2020, but they came awfully close (5-1).

Their red zone differential won’t be as good in 2020/

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Of course, the other factor that we didn’t see coming was an elevated level of play from Rodgers, whose QBR jumped from 58.0 in 2018 and 52.5 in 2019 to a league-best 84.3 in 2020. He had been between league-average and above-average by advanced stats in each of the prior five seasons before stunningly returning to an MVP level of play during his age-37 season. I would argue that the Packers didn’t think Rodgers was about to win MVP given what they did with drafting Jordan Love in Round 1 last year, but when a quarterback goes from good to dominant the way Rodgers did between 2019 and 2020, it’s going to mean a lot more than any number I can bring up for historical context.

With that being said … it took Rodgers improving by 31.8 points of QBR and the Packers producing the most dominant red zone offense in decades for them to even maintain their 13-3 record from 2019. Rodgers isn’t going to suddenly fall back to his 2018-19 level of play, but what happens if a guy who is turning 38 this December doesn’t play at an MVP level? How will the offense be impacted if left tackle David Bakhtiari isn’t ready to start the season after tearing his ACL or if star edge rusher Za’Darius Smith misses time with a back issue? There was a stronger case for the Packers to decline heading into 2020 than there is heading into 2021 — and I’m almost excited to see how they could find a way to elude history again this upcoming season — but they are likely to take a small step backward and finish around 11 wins.

Tennessee Titans (11-5)

2020 point differential: plus-52

Pythagorean expectation: 9.5 wins

Record in games decided by seven points or fewer: 7-2

FPI projected strength of schedule: Ninth easiest

It was a close race between the Titans and Seahawks for the final spot on this list, with Tennessee narrowly winning out. The Titans finally broke a run of four consecutive 9-7 seasons by going 11-5 last season, but their point differential suggests that they were really playing more like a nine-win team of years past. Amid the good (the blowout victory over the Bills in Week 5) and bad (double-digit losses to the Bengals in Week 8, Colts in Week 12 and Packers in Week 16), they made the playoffs by dominating in close games. They were 7-2 in those contests after going 7-6 in those same one-score games over Mike Vrabel’s first two seasons at the helm.

As with the other teams on this list, there were games in which the final score wasn’t representative of the performance, like when Stephen Gostkowski couldn’t stop missing kicks against the Broncos in Week 1. Two late Gostkowski field goals gave the Titans narrow wins over the Jags (Week 2) and Vikings (Week 3), teams that weren’t exactly stiff competition. Vrabel’s team had two wild victories over the lowly Texans (Weeks 6 and 17), one of which required an A.J. Brown touchdown with four seconds left to tie and the other one a 52-yard Brown catch with 18 seconds left to set up a Sam Sloman field goal. The Titans won both of their overtime tilts against teams that were probably exhausted from tackling Derrick Henry all day.

Henry has been essential to the Tennessee attack over the past two seasons, running for 875 more yards than anybody else in the league since the start of the 2019 campaign. Those yards have required a heavy workload. He ran the ball 303 times during the 2019 regular season and then hit 378 carries last season, numbers that don’t include his 101 rush attempts from the postseason.

There’s no magic number for workloads in the NFL — and Henry is built like the sort of running back who can take a pounding — but the track record for modern running backs who get this sort of workload in a typical season is bleak.

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The Titans have had a brain drain over the past couple of seasons. Former defensive coordinator Dean Pees retired after the 2019 season, and the defense fell from 18th to 29th in DVOA under new coordinator Shane Bowen last season. This year, they lost offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to the Falcons and replaced him with Todd Downing, who looked overmatched in his lone season as an offensive coordinator with the Raiders in 2017.

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In all, the 2020 Titans finished with a plus-11 turnover margin, the best mark in the NFL. Just as we talked about how teams with dismal turnover ratios improve their turnover margin and their winning percentage the following season, teams with impressive turnover ratios head in the opposite direction. There were 112 teams that finished with a turnover margin between plus-10 and plus-15 between 1989 and 2019. Those teams saw their ratio decline by an average of 9.9 takeaways the following season and won an average of 1.8 fewer games than they had the prior year.

The 2020 formula for Tennessee revolved around feeding Henry, winning the turnover battle and capturing the close ones. It might be tough to sustain even one portion of that formula this upcoming year.