DETROIT

QB TEDDY BRIDGEWATER has found a new home, his 6^th NFL team.  This from The Athletic:

The Detroit Lions are signing veteran quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a deal, coach Dan Campbell confirmed to reporters Tuesday. Here’s what you need to know:

The exact terms of the contract were not yet disclosed.

Bridgewater most recently played for the Dolphins, starting two games and appearing in five last season. He previously played for the Vikings, Saints, Panthers and Broncos.

His best season came in 2015, leading Minnesota to the NFC North title before losing to the Seahawks in the opening round. Bridgewater made the Pro Bowl after throwing for 3,231 yards with 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Bridgewater is expected to back up Lions starter Jared Goff.

The Athletic’s instant analysis:

Why the Lions made this move

The Lions haven’t been shy about their interest in Bridgewater. They’ve been in contact with his camp for much of the offseason and finally came to terms on a deal that lands him in Detroit.

Bridgewater spent time in New Orleans with Dan Campbell, so there’s a level of comfort between the two parties. With the Lions turning a corner and heading into a season with meaningful expectations for the first time in years, the front office made it a priority to upgrade the QB room this offseason.

Bridgewater should slide in as QB2 behind Jared Goff, giving the team a game-ready backup in the event of an injury. —

MINNESOTA

Comments on QB KIRK COUSINS (Tier 2) from Mike Sando’s Tiers Ranking:

Cousins has climbed into Tier 2 for the second time in eight Quarterback Tiers appearances, and by the narrowest of margins. The last time was entering 2017, when 26 of 50 voters placed him in Tier 2. It was a 25-25 split this time, placing Cousins on the borderline.

“People have him down in Tier 3 and I’m like, ‘No, no, no, no, no,’” an exec said. “But the guy is a riddle. He plays almost flawlessly in the second half in the biggest comeback in the history of the league (against Indianapolis), which almost no one can do, and then one month later, in the playoffs, he’s got fourth-and-8 on the last play of the game and he’s hitting the checkdown five yards short of the sticks with the defender all over the receiver.”

Cousins dropped off statistically last season from his 2019-21 pace, but the Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games. Cousins led the NFL with eight fourth-quarter comeback victories and eight game-winning drives, according to Pro Football Reference. He never had more than four of either in a season previously.

“He is probably the guy I was torn the most on between a 2 and a 3,” an offensive coordinator who placed Cousins in Tier 2 said. “He will probably never win a Super Bowl, but he is just a damn good player who more times than not, they are at least even, if not a little ahead, of who they are playing from a quarterback standpoint.”

The No. 12 ranking for Cousins is his highest in eight Quarterback Tiers appearances.

“He is smart, he has got leadership, he’s got command of the offense,” a defensive coordinator said. “I’m not sure he can carry the team, even sometimes. There is something missing there, but if there was a 2.5 here, I would give him that.”

WASHINGTON

Now in Washington, Eric Bienemy is trying to get back on the head coaching track – trying intensely.  ESPN.com:

Eric Bieniemy’s level of intensity has some Washington Commanders players “a little concerned,” according to head coach Ron Rivera.

Rivera told reporters Tuesday that some players have approached him to discuss their issues with Bieniemy, who is entering his first season as Washington’s offensive coordinator after a successful five-year stint in the same role with the Kansas City Chiefs.

When asked whether players feel Bieniemy’s style has been too intense during training camp, Rivera said, “They were just a little concerned.”

Rivera said he also told those players to “just go talk to [Bieniemy]” and to try to “understand what he’s trying to get across to you.”

Rivera doesn’t expect Bieniemy to tone down his level of intensity because his fiery coaching style led to championship results with the Chiefs.

“It’s not going to change because he believes in it,” Rivera said. “[Defensive coordinator] Jack [Del Rio] has his approach. Having been a head coach, I think Jack has a tendency to try to figure guys out a little bit more as opposed to, ‘Hey, this is it, this is the way it’s going to be.’ That type of stuff. Eric hasn’t had that experience yet.”

Bieniemy was a candidate for multiple head-coaching positions in recent years but didn’t land of the NFL’s top 32 jobs.

Rivera said the other side of the equation with coach-player relationships is “young guys — they do struggle with certain things and a lot of it … is from where they’ve been.”

NEW ORLEANS

Once good players, LB ANTHONY BARR and RB KAREEM HUNT had been on the street until the Saints signed them today.  Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com:

The New Orleans Saints are expected to sign running back Kareem Hunt and linebacker Anthony Barr, pending physicals, sources told ESPN’s Dianna Russini on Tuesday.

The Saints’ linebacker depth has become thin this week with starter Demario Davis currently sidelined with a calf injury. The Saints also lost reserve linebacker Andrew Dowell for the season after he tore his ACL earlier in camp.

They’ll also need depth at running back once the regular season begins with Alvin Kamara set to serve a three-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. The Saints have Jamaal Williams and rookie Kendre Miller on the roster, but recently placed reserve running back Eno Benjamin on injured reserve with a ruptured Achilles.

Saints coach Dennis Allen said he does not expect Davis’ injury to be long term.

“We’ll monitor him and see how it’s going. I’m not going to get into any timelines, but, again, it’s not going to be anything that’s really significant,” Allen said on Sunday.

The 31-year-old Barr spent the 2022 season with the Dallas Cowboys after eight seasons with the Minnesota Vikings. Barr, a 2014 first-round pick by the Vikings, started 14 games last season with 58 combined tackles and a sack. He has made four Pro Bowls, most recently during the 2018 season.

Hunt, 28, was with the Cleveland Browns for the last four seasons and played in 17 games with no starts last season as a backup to Nick Chubb. He carried the ball 123 times for 468 yards and three touchdowns. He also had 35 receptions for 210 yards and a touchdown.

Hunt was a 2017 third-round pick by the Kansas City Chiefs and spent the first two seasons of his career there. He won Rookie of the Year and led the league in rushing yards that season.

TAMPA BAY

QB BAKER MAYFIELD will start Friday’s preseason opener against the Steelers, but he is not an exclusive QB1 on the team’s official depth chart.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The first Buccaneers depth chart of the summer includes no hints about who will be their starting quarterback.

Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask are competing for that role and the depth chart makes no distinction between them. The depth chart lists Mayfield or Trask as the team’s No. 1 quarterback ahead of their first preseason game.

That game takes place on Friday night and it’s not known which of the quarterbacks will be taking the first snaps against the Steelers. Given the timeline that head coach Todd Bowles has hinted at this summer, it seems like a good bet that one quarterback will start this week and the other one would get first crack at leading the offense against the Jets on August 19.

Offensive coordinator Dave Canales said last week that the competition has tightened up and this Friday will bring the first extended look at just how things are falling into place for the Bucs offense.

Alper has not read Pewter Report.

@PewterReport

Pewter Report’s @JCAllenNFL is reporting per sources: #Bucs QB Baker Mayfield will start the first preseason game vs. the Steelers. Kyle Trask will then start the second game vs. the Jets. The two have been rotating first-team reps daily through the offseason & training camp.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Comments on QB MATTHEW STAFFORD (Tier 2) from Mike Sando’s Tiers Ranking:

Stafford is making his 10th consecutive appearance in Tier 2, but his 2.32 average vote was his worst since entering the 2016 season. He played only nine games in 2022 because of injury.

“I don’t know if they can protect well enough for him,” an offensive coach said. “Does he really give a s— enough at this stage of his career to be disciplined, or is he just going to wing it when it gets a little tight, and just force balls because he can? Remember Philip Rivers at the end in (Los Angeles) when he threw 21 interceptions and just said f— it? That’s what I’m worried about.”

Rivers led the NFL in interceptions twice over his final three seasons with the Chargers. Stafford led the league in 2021, but his interception rate has never been as high as Rivers’ highest rates.

“If he doesn’t get hurt, he is still a top-level quarterback,” a personnel director said. “I think he can still sling it around. The offense was not predicated on the run first even when they won the Super Bowl, so I think any time he is healthy and back there able to deal it, you can win because of him.”

Stafford has missed about half the season twice in the past four years.

“He still has the ability to go win a game in the 2-minute drill, regardless of the pieces around him,” a defensive coordinator said. “I just think his body is betraying him. You hear great things about his football IQ and just hope that will allow him to maintain, where if there is any more semblance of a run game, it will help him. He just can’t be a volume thrower at this point.”

KANSAS CITY

A couple of key offensive components are on the shelf, but the Chiefs are optimistic they will make the opener against the Lions.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

After wide receiver Kadarius Toney had knee surgery last month, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said “there’s a chance” that the wideout would be well enough to be in the lineup for the first game of the regular season.

General Manager Brett Veach offered a more optimistic take about the timeline for Toney and running back Isiah Pacheco on Monday. Toney has not returned to practice yet, but Veach put him in the same category as Pacheco, who has not been cleared for contact after hand and shoulder surgeries, when it comes to their outlook for facing the Lions on the first Thursday night of the regular season.

“Organizationally, we feel pretty good those guys will be ready to play, barring no setbacks,” Veach said, via Adam Teicher of ESPN.com. “I think we’re in a good place with both of those guys.”

While the Chiefs are optimistic, the availability of those two players will be up to their bodies rather than anything the team can do. The same can’t be said of defensive tackle Chris Jones, who is missing camp while looking for a new contract that may not come before September 8 and whose presence would be more significant than either of the offensive pieces.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Comments on QB JUSTIN HERBERT (Tier 2) from Mike Sando’s Tiers Ranking:

Herbert received seven fewer Tier 1 votes this year than last after his production fell and his Chargers blew a 27-0 lead to Jacksonville in the playoffs. He remained solidly within Tier 1, with only one vote separating him from Rodgers.

“I think he can carry the team, just from me coaching against him,” a defensive coordinator said. “He has the size, the arm strength, he sees the field well. What shocks you is his mobility for his size. He is a better version of Deshaun (Watson).”

Twenty-one voters placed Herbert in Tier 2. What can Herbert do to win them over?

“Not lose when you have that kind of lead in the playoffs,” a head coach said. “Make a play when you had multiple opportunities to make one. I think (new coordinator) Kellen Moore is going to give him opportunities to light up the stat sheet. I want to see him win.”

The Chargers finished 10-7 last season. Herbert played through damaged rib cartilage.

“Love the toughness, just need to see him win more in pure-pass (situations),” an exec said.

For now, there’s a line separating him from Burrow and Allen higher in the top tier.

“Maybe it’s a product of the team as a whole, but there is something for me, I don’t think he’s at that echelon quite yet,” a defensive coach said. “He has all the ability and skill set to get there. I just don’t think he is there yet.”

CINCINNATI

Bengals WRs Ja’MARR CHASE and TEE HIGGINS do not want the search for the almighty dollar to tear them apart.  Albert Breer of SI.com:

The Bengals’ coaches will tell anyone who’ll listen that their receiver room is unique. And, yes, they are talking about how Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd can tie defenses into a pretzel and give coaches headaches trying to figure out how they can get unknotted.

But it’s more than just the otherworldly collection of talent on display at every practice in July and August, the same way it is on the field in the fall.

It’s also in how they fit together, and treat each other, and that growing dynamic in the position room is one that hit Chase almost right away, after the Bengals took him with the No. 5 pick in 2021. He’d been in the building for barely a week and was assigned, as the rest of the rookies are during the offseason, to the visiting locker room at what was then called Paul Brown Stadium. It wasn’t long before Boyd and safety Jessie Bates III came for him.

“I felt the love off the jump,” Chase says. “They put me in the rookie locker room for maybe three days. And the older guys told me immediately to get my stuff and move straight in. … The next day, I walked in here and I had all my stuff in here. I felt the love right away. Everybody knew what I was coming to do. They felt the love. … That’s the best thing that they could have done for me.”

It was especially important for Chase through the much-fretted-over period in camp that summer when he had trouble hanging on to the ball. He knew the guys around him had his back, so he never felt insecure about how those around him viewed his struggles. “They were encouraging me to keep my head up and keep pushing,” he says.

Six months later, Chase was one of the best players on a Super Bowl team. And since, his room has evolved into the league’s very best.

So as part of my trip to Cincinnati, I sat down with Chase and Higgins to talk about it.

Sports Illustrated: How have things evolved with you and Tee, and your roles in the offense?

Ja’Marr Chase: I guess you could just say we know who has the hot hand at times. Whoever’s hot at the time, we’re encouraging them to keep it going and keep the hot streak going so they keep getting the ball. We know the next game, he’s getting doubled. That’s how we look at it because we know every other game, me and Tee, one of us is getting doubled. That’s when TB [Tyler Boyd] gotta step in and do his job. At the end of the day, it’s just knowing who has the hot hand and who can eat at that time.

SI: How do you raise the bar for each other?

JC: We do the competitive stuff a little bit. At first, me and Tee used to do touchdowns and stuff. We used to start off the season when I first got here my rookie year, a little competition. I was trying to introduce him to it because me and [LSU teammate] Justin [Jefferson], that’s how we pushed each other, was competition. … Overall, he’s a good guy to be around. He’s a great teammate.

SI: How does Tyler set the tone for you guys as a vet?

JC: As a vet for him, he does vet things. It’s a little different. I see him do stuff, and I couldn’t do it at the time yet. He opened the door a little bit for me to at least look like I’m a vet. TB does his own thing, but I still be on him like he be on me. That’s the thing about me; I’ll be on everybody. I don’t care if I’m a rookie. I want to push everybody to be great. I want everybody around me to be better. That’s the type of guy I am.

SI: Who’s the No. 1 receiver here?

JC: S—, I don’t know. I’ll let the people decide.

SI: I guess the answer is there are two No. 1s?

JC: Yeah, of course. Tee gets doubled; I get doubled. It happens all the time. He’s a red zone threat; I’m a red zone threat. We both get the same treatment.

SI: Is there something about the two of you that’s different, that makes one fit the other?

JC: Tee’s much taller than me. He gets out of his breaks good to be that tall, and that’s a hard thing to do. He knows how to get open. He’s got good hands. His radius for the ball is so big that you just throw it to him, and he’ll always catch it. That’s the great thing about Tee. I would say about me, I’ve got good ball-tracking skills throughout the air. Tee does, too. That, together, is a great thing to have.

Tee Higgins: Obviously, the size differences. I just feel like when one guy is focused on him, that gives the chance for me and TB to go do what we need to do. I feel like that’s how we complement each other. We’re not selfish. We’re rooting each other on. One guy can go crazy, and another guy can have a few yards, and you’re still happy as long as you get a W.

SI: What can he do that you can’t?

JC: Nothing. We all do everything.

SI: Tee, what can he do that you can’t?

TH: I do a lot that he can’t. [Laughs.] I feel like we can do a lot of the same things. Even though I’m a tall guy, I still got the breaks like he can. Even though he’s shorter than me, he can still go up and jump over a defender and grab the ball.

SI: You’re up for a contract. How bad do you want to stay together?

TH: We definitely want to. At the end of the day, we definitely want to. Everything is up to the man above. He might have something in store for me at a different place; you never know. But I want to stay together with these guys. They’re my brothers now, and we treat each other like family. I definitely want to stay here.

SI: What’s the best part of Tee’s game?

JC: His routes. He’s a tall receiver. That’s one of the hardest things about being a tall receiver is really getting yourself open. Especially at his height, you look like Megatron [Calvin Johnson], Julio [Jones], those guys know how to drop their waist and get out of breaks. That’s the main thing that’s going to get them open. He’s one of the receivers that can do it that’s tall.

SI: What’s the best part of Ja’Marr’s game?

TH: What I respect about his game is how he adjusts to different balls that’s being thrown at him, whether it be a back shoulder or a low ball, he can adjust really well. He can do it at the last minute. I respect that.

SI: You made one of those catches, Ja’Marr, that drew a reaction, where you came with late hands and bodied the defender …

JC: That’s key to being a receiver, late hands. If you get early hands, the DB knows the ball’s coming. … I just saw the ball come a little shorter. What I did was give the DB a slight bump to slow him down and let the ball just fall right in my pocket.

SI: And I saw you make a bunch of catches where you’re running one way, and you use your hands the other way to pluck—it looked like something you’ve worked a lot on.

TH: Yeah, for sure, different placements. Our assistant receiver coach, Brad [Kragthorpe], he puts the balls in different places to where we got to torque our bodies in ways that we don’t torque it all the time. It just helps us out in those prepractices and postpractices.

SI: So you said all that stuff about being unselfish, but everyone wants the ball, right?

TH: Of course, everyone wants the ball. It’s whoever got that hot hand, whoever got that hot start—we know it’s going to be that guy’s day. We know when the ball comes our way, we just got to make a play with it. At the end of the day, if Joe [Burrow] is feeling hot and he knows Ja’Marr is hot, he’s going to go to him. We’re still going to get our opportunities in that same game; we just have to make the most of it.

SI: And I’d assume with Joe out there, you’re basically alive on every play, so it’s not like you can just say it’s someone else’s ball on a certain play?

TH: You never know with Joe. He’ll check it down to the running back, and the running back could be the fifth option. Joe scans everybody, and whoever’s open, that’s who he’s giving the ball to.

SI: Do you feel lucky to be in this situation, with each other and with Joe?

JC: I wouldn’t say lucky. I’d say it’s destiny. Everything’s done for a reason. We got put in a position for a reason, and we just capitalize on what you got.

SI: What’s the next step for you guys as a group?

TH: I think we just got to keep building where we left off. I wouldn’t even say it’s the next step. We just have to keep being the elite receivers that we are, the elite offensive group that we are and just keep pushing to be great. Honestly, Super Bowl.

SI: What’s out there for you guys as far as getting better?

JC: Offseason-wise, I feel like that’s more of a personal issue—you got to know your strengths and your weaknesses in the offseason, know exactly what you want to work on, how you want to work on it. Small things and just constantly catching on the offseason. As an offense, it’s building more chemistry and being more elite at our position. Just be ourselves. We can’t overemphasize on stuff that we can’t do. We just got to do the stuff that we’re here to do.

SI: What has your receivers coach, Troy Walters, done to create the environment?

JC: Troy was always on me about the plays, catching, routes, basically everything. He was always on me about it. I even introduced him to a couple drills to help us, to help me get back to my normal self, because I was off for a whole year. He welcomed me with open hands. Him and I used to have one-on-one meetings just to get to know each other. That’s how our relationship grew.

SI: How has Joe made up for the missed time, losing a good piece of every offseason he’s been in the pros.

TH: We got three years with each other. Me four. [Ja’Marr]’s been in college with him, so he’s at five or six. We’ve got years under [our] belt. He knows how we run routes. He knows where we’re going to be at. It’s night and day now.

SI: Is there stuff he’s doing now while he’s hurt to make sure he doesn’t lose time?

TH: I know that today he grabbed me and TB on the side and showed us a route from two days ago, said he wants us here, how to run a certain route. He’s still watching film and pulling us aside and telling us how to do things.

SI: And I’m sure he’s still speaking up in the meeting room?

JC: 100 percent. He’s been doing that since I first got here. They look at him and want him to speak up a lot. Since I’ve known him so long, I know what he expects. I usually like going to him and telling him what I like, too. That way we can get our differences the same, that we can add it together.

SI: Do you think this could be the start of a dynasty? Is that out there for this group?

TH: I definitely think that can be out there. If they can handle it upstairs, where all that can happen, you never know.

SI: You, too, Ja’Marr, if the two of you are here?

JC: I’m already in Joe’s ear. I already know what Joe can do. I’m in Zac [Taylor]’s ear sometimes. I’m trying to be in everybody’s ear about him. I don’t want him to go anywhere.

HOUSTON

A minority owner of the Texans is an accused rapist.  Daniel Chavkin of SI.com:

Texans minority owner Javier Loya is facing one count of first-degree rape, five counts of first-degree sexual abuse and one count of third-degree sexual abuse in Kentucky, according to ProFootballTalk.

Loya is a Houston businessman who is the cofounder and CEO of OTC Global Holdings, a Houston-based firm. He has been a minority owner for the Texans since the organization’s inception in 2002.

An arrest warrant was issued in Jefferson County, Ky., on May 10, and Loya’s case has a pretrial conference set for Aug. 22, according to the report.

The Texans acknowledged to ProFootballTalk that they are aware of the charges against Loya.

“We are aware of the serious charges filed in the Commonwealth of Kentucky against Javier Loya, one of our outside limited partners,” the statement said. “We have agreed with Mr. Loya that while these charges are pending, he will remove himself entirely from any team or League activities.”

Additionally, the NFL said the Texans properly informed the league about the situation, and it subsequently removed Loya from all committee positions.

“The club promptly notified the league of the serious pending charges against Mr. Loya after they were filed,” a league spokesperson told ProFootballTalk via email. “Mr. Loya has not been permitted to participate in any league or club activity during this process. He is no longer on any league committees.”

INDIANAPOLIS

RB JONATHAN TAYLOR is going to let someone other than Colts staff rehab his ankle.  Stephan Holder of ESPN.com:

All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor has left Indianapolis Colts training camp to continue rehabbing his ankle injury off-site, a source told ESPN on Tuesday.

Taylor, who has been in a standoff with the Colts over his lack of a contract extension, was not in attendance at Tuesday’s practice even though injured players are customarily expected to be on the field for each workout.

Coach Shane Steichen said Taylor was absent as “part of his rehab process. If you don’t see him out here, it’s part of his rehab.”

When asked whether Taylor was rehabbing on- or off-site, Steichen declined to comment. The source told ESPN that the Colts were previously made aware of Taylor’s plans to continue his rehab away from the team and that his absence is expected to last several days.

Taylor has been on the physically unable to perform list since reporting to training camp on July 27. The team attributed the decision to his offseason ankle surgery, but a source later added that Taylor also complained of back and hamstring tightness. Taylor has denied any issue with his back.

The Colts open their preseason schedule against the Buffalo Bills on Saturday, but there’s still no indication of a resolution between Taylor and the team. Taylor has asked for a trade, which owner Jim Irsay vehemently rejected.

Taylor, according to multiple sources, continues to hold out hope that the team will reconsider his request. He has one season remaining on his rookie contract and is scheduled to hit free agency next spring.

He led the NFL in rushing in 2021 with 1,811 rushing yards 18 touchdowns. His 3,841 rushing yards since entering the league in 2020 ranks fourth in the NFL and his 33 rushing touchdowns is tied for second.

Meanwhile, the Colts were down two additional running backs Tuesday, as Zack Moss, who suffered a broken arm last week, and Deon Jackson, who was sidelined by an unspecified injury, also missed practice.

JACKSONVILLE

Did the Jaguars make a good bet when they signed WR CALVIN RIDLEY?  So far, so good.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Calvin Ridley comeback is right on track.

Ridley, a budding star with the Falcons who was suspended for more than a year after violating the NFL’s gambling policy, has rocketed to the top of the depth chart in Jacksonville.

In the team’s first officially unofficial depth chart of the preseason, Ridley is listed as a starting receiver. The Jags go with three WR1’s — Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Ridley.

Last year, the Jaguars gave the Falcons two draft picks for Ridley’s contractual rights: a 2023 fifth-round pick and a 2024 conditional fourth-round selection. The fourth-round pick can become a third-round pick if Ridley achieves certain performance triggers this season, and it will become a second-round if he’s signed to an extension.

Ridley is due to make $11.116 million this year, in the fifth-year option of his first-round rookie contract. He will be eligible for free agency in 2024.

THIS AND THAT

BILL BARNWELL’S BREAKOUT CANDIDATES

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com has identified 23 candidates to “level up.”

As we preview the NFL season, there’s a natural urge for us to point to potential breakout players in 2023. It’s a process our experts begin a week after the Super Bowl and through the opening game, which is less than a month away.

Breakout, though, isn’t a term that fits every NFL player. A starting quarterback’s breakout season might see him contend for MVP votes. For a player bouncing around the bottom of NFL rosters and practice squads, though, breaking out might be earning 17 game checks. We often focus on players at skill positions and their chances of breaking out in larger roles, but there are players who don’t ever touch the football who take huge strides forward and help their teams advance to the postseason.

With that in mind, below are 23 players who have breakout potential for the 2023 campaign relative to their reputation and the attention they’re getting now. I believe each of these guys can move beyond their current level of play and reach new heights.

I’ll start with the notable young players who have already established themselves as great players before working my way down to the rotation players who could emerge as solid starters. I’ll also add a section at the bottom for players who don’t neatly fit into any group, and how they can regain their stride this season.

Pro Bowlers to superstars

Let’s begin with the players who could become the best at their respective positions this season. These guys are already regarded as stars, but they have first-team All-Pro potential if they reach their ceiling. Several players could fit into this category if everything breaks right for them, but I’ll focus on three who stand out as favorites to me.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars

For a year and a half, Lawrence struggled to live up to the expectations placed on him as one of the top quarterback prospects of the past decade. There was an Urban Meyer-sized explanation for his rookie season in 2021, but he still seemed to be adjusting during the first half of last season. After the Jaguars’ loss to the Broncos in London, he completed just over 62% of his passes, averaging 6.6 yards per attempt and had thrown 10 touchdown passes against six picks.

After the trip over the pond, Lawrence morphed into a superstar. He completed 69.7% of his passes over the remainder of the season while averaging 7.4 yards per attempt. He threw 15 touchdown passes against two picks while leading the Jaguars to a division title, including comeback victories over the Cowboys and Ravens. From Week 9 on, his adjusted completion percentage (75.5%) ranked first in the league.

Lawrence’s first postseason trip wasn’t exactly smooth — he threw five interceptions in games against the Chargers and Chiefs — but he did coax another dramatic comeback out of his offense in the home wild-card win. Now, with wide receiver Calvin Ridley added to the mix and another full offseason away from the Meyer era, he has the ability to improve on the player we saw in the second half of 2022. Lawrence is currently eighth in the MVP odds at Caesars Sportsbook and seems capable of something special in Year 3.

Penei Sewell, OT, Lions

Taken six picks after Lawrence in the 2021 draft, Sewell has quickly improved. Much of the rawness to his game that he showed as a rookie in 2021 has been eliminated, as he has been able to convert more of his skills and range to consistently erase opposing pass-rushers. Per the FTN Football Almanac 2023, Sewell’s blown block rate was just 3% last season, which was the sixth-best mark in the league among tackles.

For most teams, Sewell would be a superstar left tackle. While he looked impressive during a stint on the blindside as a rookie, the Lions already have Pro Bowl-caliber left tackle Taylor Decker, so Sewell’s stuck on the right side. The Eagles’ Lane Johnson has been the gold standard of NFL right tackles when healthy over the past decade, but as a player who doesn’t even turn 23 until October, Sewell is the best contender to challenge for Johnson’s throne.

A.J. Terrell, CB, Falcons

To close observers, Terrell already had his breakout season in 2021. The 2020 first-round pick looked spectacular on tape and by the numbers, as he allowed a passer rating of just 61.0 in coverage, per Pro Football Reference, despite playing behind the league’s worst pass rush. I was convinced by what I saw and named him a first-team All-Pro on my year-end list, placing him ahead of stars Jalen Ramsey and Marshon Lattimore.

Terrell wasn’t bad in 2022, but the results weren’t the same. He gave up two touchdown passes in the Week 1 opener to Saints’ receiver Michael Thomas and finished the season allowing six scores, which doubled his total from the prior season. Opposing quarterbacks posted a passer rating just north of 102 against him, up by more than 40 points. There wasn’t much of a pass rush again from the Falcons, but Terrell slipped by his own lofty standards.

Finally, though, he is getting help. The Falcons brought in as many as seven new starters on the defensive side of the ball this offseason, including star safety and former Bengals standout Jessie Bates III. Calais Campbell and David Onyemata should help up front, while Kaden Elliss surprised as a pass-rusher for the Saints last season. If Terrell and Grady Jarrett don’t have to put the defense solely on their backs in 2023, it might unlock a new level from the fourth-year pro. I wouldn’t be surprised if Terrell were the best cornerback in the NFC in 2023.

Starters to Pro Bowlers

The most classic example of a breakout player is someone who has already established himself as an NFL starter before taking the leap into a difference-maker. You’ll already know about many of these players and might even argue that some of them should be considered Pro Bowl-caliber talents, but I believe they’re capable of actually earning postseason honors in 2023.

Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets

Here’s a good example for this tier. Wilson was named Offensive Rookie of the Year after he had 83 catches for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns, but he couldn’t crack a Pro Bowl roster featuring Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams and Ja’Marr Chase. It’s hard to poke any holes in the first three players. While I would have considered bumping Chase because of the time he missed with a hip injury, Wilson might have been stuck behind Jaylen Waddle, Amari Cooper and Christian Kirk, each of whom missed out on their own nods.

Wilson’s case was his quarterbacks: He came in around 2.0 yards per route run in an offense with Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco and Chris Streveler at quarterback. Now, he’ll have Aaron Rodgers. Even a diminished Rodgers would be a drastic upgrade on the players Wilson dealt with a year ago, which could propel him into the stratosphere. The upside case for him is obvious.

Will it work out that way? Maybe. Young receivers have typically struggled to find steady footing with Rodgers. Wilson’s one issue last season was a habit of dropping passes, which typically admits a young player into the legendary quarterback’s doghouse. Like the Jets and their expectations after acquiring Rodgers, Wilson has both a high ceiling and a lower-than-expected floor.

Quinn Meinerz, G, Broncos

Yes, interior offensive linemen can break out, too! Meinerz was drafted to be a rookie backup at guard for the Broncos behind Dalton Risner and Graham Glasgow, but he has been too imposing to keep on the bench for most of the past two seasons. Like a Western version of Cleveland dynamo Wyatt Teller, Meinerz has snaps in which he looks like a moving train on the interior. Over the past two seasons, Denver’s success rate on the ground has jumped from 40% without him on the field to just under 44% with him in the mix.

Coach Sean Payton signaled his desire to build through the running game and a strong offensive line this offseason. While Risner and Glasgow left the organization, Payton signed Ravens guard Ben Powers, 49ers tackle Mike McGlinchey and Jaguars blocking tight end Chris Manhertz. The Broncos are getting bigger up front, and Meinerz added 20 pounds this offseason to fit in. If he can stay consistent, he has Pro Bowl upside.

Charles Cross, OT, Seahawks

The Seahawks feel good about the first year of outcomes from the Russell Wilson trade for a variety of reasons. One of the most immediate positive returns came with the first-round pick they netted from the Broncos last year. Cross stepped into the most obvious position of need on Seattle’s roster and looked like he belonged from Day 1. Playing every single snap as a rookie, he locked down quarterback Geno Smith’s blindside and helped form one of the more promising young duos in football with fellow rookie tackle Abraham Lucas.

Cross wasn’t perfect. Stats LLC credited him with six sacks allowed, and he committed seven penalties, including three holding calls. There’s still a lot to like here. Young left tackles Rashawn Slater and Jedrick Wills Jr. have set the bar impossibly high by excelling immediately as rookies in previous years, but Cross was well above the standard of the typical debuting left tackle. He should be even better with a year of reps under his belt.

Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Dolphins

Phillips is a problem. Watch Miami games and you’ll usually see at least a couple of snaps each week in which he makes the guy across from him look overmatched, even if it’s one of the better left tackles in football. He isn’t as stout as you might hope an edge defender would be, but he has special speed and bend coming off the ball.

Last season might seem like a step backward for Phillips, who dropped from 8.5 sacks to seven while playing 237 more defensive snaps. But I’m not so sure. He jumped from 16 quarterback knockdowns as a rookie to 25 last season, which tells us he was around passers more often and created more problems, even if it didn’t lead to extra sacks. Pass-rushers typically turn about 45% of their knockdowns into sacks, which would have typically yielded a season with 11-plus sacks for Phillips, given those quarterback hits. Can he be Vic Fangio’s new Khalil Mack or Von Miller?

Jaquan Brisker, S, Bears

In what amounted to a teaching season for coach Matt Eberflus with the Bears, Brisker was the new coach’s most promising pupil. The rookie second-rounder did a little bit of everything in his 15 starts, as he intercepted a pass, produced a team-high four sacks, racked up five tackles for loss and knocked away a couple of throws. Playing down toward the line of scrimmage most often, he also only missed just 6.3% of his tackles all season, according to Pro Football Reference.

Some of Brisker’s misses were conspicuous — and injuries slowed him as the season wore on — but there’s an undeniably exciting skill set here. The hope is that he ends up looking something like Chicago’s version of Jamal Adams as a player who can use his instincts, timing and toughness to make game-changing plays. Brisker can be a cornerstone piece for Chicago as early as this season if he stays healthy.

Jalen Pitre, S, Texans

Let’s finish this section with a sophomore safety in the other conference. Like Brisker, Pitre filled the stat sheet, but it was in a different sort of way. While Brisker played on a defense that typically played with split-safety coverages and asked him to get in the box, Pitre was asked to play as a single-high safety far more often. Pitre didn’t get to the quarterback as often — he racked up one lone sack — but he came away with five interceptions and eight passes defended.

When there was a play to be made in the Houston defense, Pitre was typically the one making it. Per the FTN Football Almanac 2023, his 155 plays (tackles, assists, deflections, interceptions, forced fumbles and fumbles recovered) amounted to 16.7% of Houston’s overall defensive incidents last season. That was the league’s second-best mark among safeties, a figure topped only by Chargers superstar Derwin James Jr..

Pitre should have more talent in front of him in 2023, which might improve his efficiency, albeit at the expense of some volume.

Rotation players to solid starters

In this section, I’ll touch on the players emerging in regular roles last season without advancing to the status of full-time players or every week starters. Some might not have played for significant stretches because of injury a year ago, but they should be Week 1 starters.

Skyy Moore, WR, Chiefs

Kadarius Toney might have been an obvious pick for this list, but the former Giants speedster hasn’t been able to stay healthy for any significant stretch. He’s already questionable for Week 1 after undergoing knee surgery in late July. The Chiefs believe Toney can become a star — and Justyn Ross is looking like the player who many expected to be a first-round pick before suffering a run of injuries — but it’s just tough to count on either of those players to be on the field for even 500 offensive snaps.

With JuJu Smith-Schuster leaving for the Patriots, Moore is the most likely candidate to step in and play when the Chiefs have two or three wide receivers on the field. The 2022 second-rounder struggled to attract regular playing time and was a liability as a punt returner during his rookie campaign, but he still averaged 1.6 yards per route run.

It’s usually dangerous to back wide receivers who don’t show much in Year 1, but one pre-draft comp for Moore struggled early in his career before turning into a Pro Bowler. Golden Tate was anonymous for his first year-and-a-half with the Seahawks before growing into a more significant role and eventually emerging as a star in Detroit. If Moore can stay on the field for the Chiefs, he should be able to produce even quicker.

Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE, Titans

Tennessee is coming off a lost 2022 season, but one of the bright spots from the frustrating campaign was its rookie tight end. Okonkwo made his presence known with a stretch in which he seemed to get open for a long catch every week. He finished with four catches of 30-plus yards; the only tight ends with more were Travis Kelce, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson and Hunter Henry.

Okonkwo averaged 2.9 yards per route run on 154 routes; the only player with 100 routes or more who averaged more yards per route run last year was Tyreek Hill. Of course, most players ran far more routes than him. If we look back through recent history at tight ends who were wildly efficient while running about 10 routes per game, the results are mixed. Ladarius Green and Austin Seferian-Jenkins never grew into larger roles as receivers, but Jared Cook and Jimmy Graham were similarly efficient at the beginning of their careers before emerging as standouts in larger roles.

Playing on a team that runs at one of the league’s highest rates and with DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks at wide receiver, Okonkwo’s won’t attract huge target numbers. If he can run even five more routes per game, though, he could push toward being a top-10 tight end.

Jordan Davis, DT, Eagles

It was lost in the shuffle during an otherwise incredible season for the Eagles, but Davis wasn’t as immediately impactful during his rookie campaign as his college tape would have suggested. He was sidelined in midseason by a high-ankle sprain, and when the Eagles added Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph during his time on injured reserve, he didn’t regain his role. After playing about 33% of the defensive snaps before his injury, he was down to 18% after returning. Most of his playoff playing time came with the Eagles leading by multiple scores in the second half.

With Suh and Joseph off the roster, Davis will assume a larger role as the team’s primary nose tackle. Fletcher Cox and Jalen Carter will be in place to try and create pass-rushing opportunities on the interior, so that won’t be Davis’ primary responsibility, but he needs to help improve Philadelphia’s rush defense. The Eagles had the league’s seventh-worst success rate on rush defense last season and were the league’s worst defense in power situations. Davis can play an essential role in helping them firm up on the ground.

Zach Tom, OL, Packers

I have Tom listed as an offensive lineman because it’s unclear exactly where he will play in 2023. As a rookie, he lined up everywhere but center at one point or another, including stretches protecting Aaron Rodgers’ blindside at left tackle. He finished the season allowing just one sack and without committing a single penalty.

After starting camp at right tackle, Tom has been taking snaps as Green Bay’s first-team center. Blessed with a healthy offensive line for the first time in years, the Packers seem to be trying to find scenarios where Tom and 2022 breakout lineman Yosh Nijman can be on the field simultaneously. It’s unclear where Tom will end up playing in the long-term, but he appears to be the latest in a series of midround linemen to turn into standouts for the Packers.

Cam Taylor-Britt, CB, Bengals

The Bengals’ secondary is in flux. Starting safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell and cornerback Eli Apple all left in free agency. Chidobe Awuzie is coming back after tearing an ACL. Veteran Mike Hilton is back in the slot — and they have multiple high draft picks to insert in the lineup — but this secondary will need somebody to rely upon early in the season.

The key player is Taylor-Britt, who filled in for Apple and then Awuzie after missing the first six games of 2022. The second-rounder was an every down player from Week 8 onward, allowing a 102.9 passer rating in coverage, per Pro Football Reference. He got better as the season went along. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he allowed a completion percentage of 16.8 points under expectation over the final month of the season, a stretch which included playoff games against the Bills and Chiefs.

Now, Taylor-Britt enters the season as an essential starter. The Bengals don’t get their titanic battle with the Chiefs until New Year’s Eve, but they’ll get the Browns, Ravens, Rams and Seahawks before their Week 7 bye. Last season, coach Zac Taylor’s team couldn’t carry over their white-hot end to 2021 into a hot start in 2022. If Cincinnati wants to pull that off this season, it will need Taylor-Britt and his fellow young teammates in the secondary to hit the ground running.

Martin Emerson, CB, Browns

There weren’t many Browns defenders who came out of last season looking like winners. Myles Garrett had another dominant season as usual, but Denzel Ward, John Johnson III and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah didn’t live up to expectations. Deshaun Watson’s play attracted attention, but even with his dismal stretch after returning from a suspension, the Browns ranked eighth in the NFL in DVOA. They missed out on a postseason berth because the defense didn’t help coach Kevin Stefanski’s team win games.

One of the few exceptions who had a promising 2022 was Emerson, the team’s best cornerback for stretches as a rookie. The third-round pick spent most of his time in the slot, but he also moved around the field, most notably limiting Mike Evans to 31 yards on nine targets in a November victory over the Buccaneers. He finished the season with a 77.6 passer rating allowed in coverage. New defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz thrived in Philadelphia when the Eagles unexpectedly got a career season out of corner Patrick Robinson in the slot in 2017; Emerson has to be equally valuable to the Browns to get their defense right this season.

Cobie Durant, CB, Rams

To say that the Rams are rebuilding on defense would be an understatement. Three of the 14 defenders who played 35% or more of the defensive snaps during their run to a Super Bowl in 2021 are still on the roster. Their only projected regular in the secondary who isn’t on a rookie deal is cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon, who signed for just over the minimum in June. Their roster looks like an attempt to isolate just how dominant defensive tackle Aaron Donald can play when he’s surrounded by 10 players who aren’t household names.

Coordinator Raheem Morris & Co. need to find building blocks around Donald on defense by the end of the season, and Durant seems well-positioned to become one of those success stories. The fourth-round pick impressed on 281 snaps as a rookie a year ago, intercepting three passes and taking one of them to the house. Now, he’ll move into the “Star” role in the Vic Fangio-style defense Morris oversees for the Rams, taking over for departed superstar Jalen Ramsey.

Expecting Ramsey’s mix of coverage ability and toughness would be a big ask, but if Durant can grow into that role as 2023 rolls along, it’ll give the Rams a much-needed solution at a key position on their defense.

Post-hype candidates

These are the players who, for one reason or another, have fallen off the breakout radar and aren’t getting the appropriate level of attention heading into the season. Last year, the classic example of a post-hype breakout would have been Raiders running back Josh Jacobs, who went from playing in the Hall of Fame game and having his fifth-year option declined to leading the league in rushing yards. These players don’t neatly fit into any of the categories above, but they can regain that attention in 2023.

Mac Jones, QB, Patriots

I’ve repeatedly discussed how little the Patriots did last season to create easy, confidence-building completions for Jones. Their play-action rate was down, and their RPO game was virtually nonexistent. It’s one thing to do that with a big-game hunter or a fogey at quarterback, but Jones posted video game numbers on RPOs during his time at Alabama.

As Ollie Connelly wrote about at length in his newsletter, adding coordinator Bill O’Brien and a dollop of the offense both Jones and O’Brien used during their respective times at Alabama should make life easier for the third-year quarterback. The Patriots added a tough wide receiver in JuJu Smith-Schuster and a potential contested catch receiver in Mike Gesicki. Jones was regarded as one of the league’s most promising young quarterbacks after his first season in New England, only to visibly take a step backward last season. I believe he’ll look more like the player we expected to see a year ago.

Antonio Gibson, RB, Commanders

Gibson’s usage in Washington hasn’t made much sense. Drafted out of Memphis as a slot receiver and gadget player with 34 college carries, he didn’t land the receiving role his skill set would have suggested. He has about as many carries (574) as routes run (613) over his first three seasons. Compare that to Austin Ekeler, who might be Gibson’s best-case outcome: Ekeler has run nearly twice as many routes (1,014) than he has carries (526) over that same time frame.

Let’s get a third back in the mix and talk about Jerick McKinnon, who ran 318 routes and caught nine touchdown passes while taking just 72 carries last season. The Commanders aren’t going to throw the ball near as often as the Chiefs, but new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy seems set to carve out more of a passing role for Gibson, who ceded that work to J.D. McKissic at times in Washington. The McKinnon role might not be three-down work for a player in the final year of his deal, but Gibson could be a valuable free agent if he establishes himself as a passing-down back.

Byron Murphy, CB, Vikings

For much of his tenure in Arizona, Murphy was the best cornerback on a team that didn’t have good players at the position. He emerged as a valuable slot cornerback, but he struggled when pushed into a broader role in 2022. His passer rating allowed jumped from 87.6 to 101.1, while the Cardinals were 15 points of QBR better without Murphy on the field. After missing just two games in his first three seasons, he was out for the second half of 2022 with a back injury.

The Vikings needed help everywhere at cornerback, but another factor appealed to them: Murphy’s age. At 25, he was one of the youngest free agents on the open market, and the hope will be that a more modern, dynamic defense under Brian Flores gets the most out of Murphy’s skill set. Flores has typically asked his corners to play man more often than most other coordinators; Murphy will get a chance to prove whether he’s up to the task. On a two-year deal, he could land a much larger contract in free agency in 2025.

Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, 49ers

Let’s finish with a series of edge rushers in drastically different situations. The first one up is Ferrell, who became the poster child for what went wrong during the second Jon Gruden era with the Raiders. A promising defensive end with prototypical size at Clemson, Ferrell was expected to be drafted somewhere toward the bottom half of Round 1 in 2019. The Raiders, who had three first-round picks, took him with the first of them at No. 4 overall. As with so many of their other young players, they failed to develop him into anything beyond the player who they overdrafted.

Enter 49ers defensive line coach Kris Kocurek, who has a gaudy track record of turning other teams’ disappointments into valuable rotation players. He already pulled this trick with pass-rusher in Arden Key, who had three sacks in three seasons with the Raiders. Kocurek coaxed a 6.5-sack season out of Key, who then had a solid 2022 with the Jags before earning a deal with the Titans. Maurice Hurst came down the same pipeline in 2021, only to miss most of the past two seasons with injuries.

Ferrell is on a one-year deal for $2.5 million, but it seems inevitable that the team will get more out of him than what we saw in Las Vegas. The 49ers added a premium defensive tackle in free agency when they signed away Javon Hargrave from the Eagles, but Ferrell will likely figure in as an edge defender on early downs and mix in taking snaps on the interior in obvious passing situations. He will compete with 2022 second-rounder Drake Jackson for playing time across from Nick Bosa, but don’t be shocked if he finishes the year looking like a bargain.

Rashan Gary, EDGE, Packers

Gary was on last year’s list as a potential Pro Bowler and was on pace to produce that sort of season before injury struck. He generated six sacks in his first six games, only to tear his ACL in Week 9 and miss the remainder of the season. Losing him hurt the players around him, too; the Packers’ QBR declined by more than 10 points without him on the field, while their pressure rate dropped from 40.3% to 31.7%.

The 25-year-old has started camp on the physically unable to perform list, so it’s unclear whether he will play in Week 1. Gary seemed on pace to land a deal toward the top of the edge rusher market, but after the injury, he’s playing out a fifth-year option for a little over $10 million. If the Gary we saw in 2021 and the first half of 2022 returns on the field in 2023, the Packers star should be able to land a new deal approaching $30 million per year.

Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Giants

Another promising edge defender whose season was cut short by injury, Ojulari racked up 5.5 sacks in 2022 despite being limited to 230 defensive snaps across seven games. He battled hamstring and ankle injuries multiple times before a thigh bruise knocked him out of the playoff win over the Vikings. He has made changes to his training regimen to try and stay healthier in 2023.

Ojulari’s sack production might be a little inflated — he racked up those 5.5 sacks on seven knockdowns a year ago — but he has 13.5 sacks on 538 rush attempts, or just about one in every 40 tries. Nick Bosa, to bring up a star edge rusher, has generated one sack every 44 attempts over that same time frame. We can’t project Ojulari to keep that level of production up over a full season, but if he stays healthy and only slips a little, we could be talking about him and Kayvon Thibodeaux as one of the best young edge rushing duos in football.

David Ojabo, EDGE, Ravens

For the Ravens to win the Super Bowl, they’ll either need to find a veteran pass-rusher in free agency or have one of their two young rushers step up. Odafe Oweh, a first-round pick in 2021, hasn’t done much during his first two seasons, racking up eight sacks and 26 knockdowns across 1,249 snaps. He could still take a leap forward in Year 3 — and defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald will try to generate favorable matchups for his players — but Baltimore needs its other Big Ten draftee to step up in his first healthy season.

Ojabo played for Macdonald at Michigan and looked like a future star during an 11-sack junior campaign, only to tear his Achilles during the school’s pro day in March 2022. He fell to the Ravens in the second round of the draft and was sidelined for virtually all last season, playing just 22 regular-season snaps on defense before taking two more in the playoff loss to the Bengals. Ojabo looks closer to his old self in training camp so far, and a breakout season from the 23-year-old would solve Baltimore’s biggest problem on paper.