THE DAILY BRIEFING
AROUND THE NFL
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A good thought by Dan Pompei in The Athletic as the Chiefs and Cowboys navigated past horrid losses:
“We should never be too concerned with almost losses. They are part of the fabric of the NFL.”
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If The Season Ended Today in the AFC, the Patriots have jumped back into the playoffs:
W-L HTH Div Conf 538 playoff%
Buffalo East 10-3 1 1 7-2 99%
Kansas City West 10-3 -1 1 6-3 99%
Baltimore North 9-4 1 6-3 98%
Tennessee South 7-6 1 5-4 85%
Cincinnati WC1 9-4 2 6-3 97%
Miami WC2 8-5 2 6-3 70%
New England WC3 7-6 3 5-3 40%
LA Chargers 7-6 2 5-4 55%
NY Jets 7-6 4 5-5 34%
There is no one at 6-7 with the Jaguars, Raiders, Browns and Steelers at 5-8. At 14%, the Jaguars who can be both a Wild Card and Division Champ have the best playoff odds.
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We contended yesterday that at this moment, the Lions could be as high as #7 in an NFL ranking. Certainly in the top 10 or 12.
Not everyone agrees.
ProFootballTalk.com’s Week 15 ranking has the Lions at #15:
15. Lions (6-7; No. 18): They’re still facing an uphill climb to get to the postseason, but they’re scaling the rock.
Teams still ahead of Detroit in this listing are the Commanders and Giants, both of whom the Lions beat – even before their current ascendancy.
ESPN Nation’s poll of experts shows the Lions even lower:
17. Detroit Lions (6-7)
Week 14 ranking: 20
Offense: 8
Defense: 31
Special teams: 3
There’s no denying that the Lions’ offense is capable of putting up big numbers on any team in the league — scoring at least 30 points in seven games this season. Defensively, however, they aren’t great at stopping anyone, either. The Lions’ D is allowing 403.2 total yards per game and 26.7 points per game, which are both the second-highest marks in the league. — Eric Woodyard
Woodyard’s snippet is old news. Sure the Lions have averaged allowing 26.7 PPG over 13 games, but it is only 20.3 over the last 6 games. Are we ranking these teams over their 13-game body of work or where they stand in the here and now?
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NFC NORTH
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DETROIT
Three writers at The Athletic are absolutely convinced the Lions can make the playoffs:
Can the Lions sneak into the postseason? If they do, how dangerous would they be?
Jeff Howe: The Lions can absolutely get into the playoffs because they’ve got an easier schedule than the Commanders and Giants, whom they’ll have to leapfrog in the final month. It’s not a sure thing by any stretch, but it’s remarkable it’s possible considering, first, the franchise’s history and, second, they were 1-6 this season. The Lions have won five of six and close the season with the Jets, Panthers, Bears and Packers. If they continue to play as well as they have been, they’ll win at least three of those games. They most likely need them all to get into the postseason, though. Meanwhile, the Commanders and Giants play each other next week, and they’ve each got a couple of really tough games after that, so a 4-0 finish by the Lions could get it done.
Kalyn Kahler: Yes! Yes! Yes! This is my dream for the postseason, a playoff field that features the very weird and very fun Detroit Lions. Last week, I gave the Lions a real shot at the second wild-card spot, and after their comfortable win over the 10-2 Vikings, with a touchdown from Williams in his second NFL game, I am feeling even better about this prediction. Right now, the Giants (7-5-1), Commanders (7-5-1), Seahawks (7-6) and Lions are in the running for the NFC wild-card spots. The Giants’ loss today helps the Lions’ cause, but the Giants’ and Commanders’ tie last week did not. Detroit has the New York Jets, the Panthers, the Bears and the Packers left on the schedule. The Jets’ QB situation is murky after Mike White got hit hard in the ribs and left the game Sunday twice, the Panthers are the Panthers, and the Lions beat the Bears and the Packers in their first matchups this season. And by the final week of the season, Green Bay might be playing Jordan Love. I have a close eye on these Lions, and you should, too.
Dan Pompei: They can be a 10-win team if they win out. And they are capable of winning out. They are not as talented as some teams, but they have found a formula that works for them. Arguably, there is not a hotter team in the league. Unlike some, the Lions seem to be getting healthier at the right time of the year. They had significant contributions against the Vikings from Williams, D.J. Chark and Josh Reynolds, all of whom have missed significant time. Their pass defense remains a real concern, however. Kirk Cousins passed for 425 yards Sunday (including 223 to Justin Jefferson), but the Lions won’t play against any of the better passing teams again in the regular season.
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NFC EAST
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DALLAS
The Cowboys sign a veteran receiver off the street, and it is not WR ODELL BECKHAM, Jr. Todd Archer of ESPN.com:
The flirting with Odell Beckham Jr. might not be over, but the Dallas Cowboys on Monday added another veteran wide receiver — T.Y. Hilton.
“The timing is right,” coach Mike McCarthy said Monday. “He’s ready to go. He’s an excellent addition, especially at this time of year.”
Hilton has not been with a team all season, but the Cowboys felt the need to add veteran wide receiver help. In 10 seasons with the Indianapolis Colts, Hilton caught 631 passes for 9,691 yards and 53 touchdowns. He was a four-time Pro Bowl pick.
Hilton had just 23 catches for 331 yards and 3 scores last season, playing in only 10 games.
The Cowboys guaranteed Hilton $600,000 over the final four weeks of the regular season and he will count $800,000 against the cap. He can earn $50,000 for each regular-season game he is on the 46-man roster.
In addition to playoff money that comes from the league, he can earn up to $700,000 in playoff incentives if the Cowboys win the Super Bowl and he plays in 30% of the snaps. Money can max out at $1.8 million.
Beckham visited the Cowboys last week as he recovers from a torn ACL in his left knee suffered in Super Bowl LVI. Micah Parsons said Beckham told him he would need five weeks to get ready to play, which would mean he would be ready only for the playoffs and maybe even late in the postseason.
After the victory Sunday against the Houston Texans, owner and general manager Jerry Jones said he would not rule out the possible addition of Beckham.
Hilton joins a receiver crew that includes CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Noah Brown, James Washington, KaVontae Turpin and Jalen Tolbert.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have suffered a loss on the offensive line. More Archer:
The Dallas Cowboys’ fears Sunday night were confirmed Monday when an MRI showed right tackle Terence Steele suffered tears to the anterior cruciate and medial collateral ligaments in his left knee.
Steele was injured in the second quarter when a Houston Texans defender crashed into his leg while making a block. Steele had started every game this season and 40 of 45 games in his career after joining the Cowboys as an undrafted free agent in 2020.
He is the second starter the Cowboys have lost for the season in as many games, with cornerback Anthony Brown suffering an Achilles tear against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13.
All-Pro right guard Zack Martin did not know the severity of the injury after the Cowboys’ 27-23 victory over the Texans but said Steele has been their best lineman.
“It’s a big loss for us, and we’ve got to find a way to rally and fill that spot for him because — I said it last year and said it this year — he’s been our bell cow. So, we’ve got to step up and find a way to fill that hole.”
Josh Ball replaced Steele immediately in the Houston game, however, after two poor plays led to a Dak Prescott fumble and interception, he was replaced by Jason Peters on the winning 98-yard drive. Peters had not played right tackle since early in his 18-year career with the Buffalo Bills.
“I thought Jason really did a hell of a job going in there and playing in that situation,” coach Mike McCarthy said Sunday. “Jason’s been in that two-minute situation, you know, for a couple decades compared to Josh Ball. I think just the utilization of personnel was done very well.”
The Cowboys opened the 21-day practice window for Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith last week, and the hope is he could see action against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. Smith suffered a torn hamstring in training camp that required surgery. He said he felt “great” after his first practice of the regular season.
The Cowboys could go with a split at tackle between Ball and Peters, who is 40, but feel good about their depth.
Steele is scheduled to be a restricted free agent after this season, and the Cowboys have hoped to sign him to a long-term deal.
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NFC SOUTH
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ATLANTA
Is QB DESMOND RIDDER ready for his closeup? Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com on his historic first start in New Orleans this Sunday:
FALCONS PRACTICE IS over, and the starters are making their way toward the locker room. They’ve been going for two hours. Lingering on the field is one of two men wearing red quarterback jerseys, looking for more.
Ridder, for every regular season practice this year, has worked with the scout team, pretending to be Justin Fields, Kenny Pickett, Matthew Stafford or whichever quarterback the Falcons are playing. It has been his role for 13 weeks, a combination of learning how to be an NFL quarterback while simultaneously mimicking others.
Then comes this: For anywhere between 15 minutes to a half-hour after practice, Ridder and a collection of Atlanta offensive players, who primarily spend their time on scout team, stay on the field running through plays. These are their reps to learn Atlanta’s offense.
“Going out there, working on little things, getting timing, running the right routes, knowing we got to line up fast,” receiver Frank Darby said. “Because when it comes down, we just got to be ready for the opportunity.”
Since Atlanta drafted Ridder in April, there has been a clear development plan. The Falcons wanted to push him but not overload him, see what he could handle without placing him in a position that could stunt his success.
In minicamp and throughout the season, Falcons coaches have praised how Ridder handled things mentally — from learning the playbook to picking up on his offensive scheme — and his maturity.
“As the season’s gone on, he’s gotten more and more comfortable with it and you’ve seen growth from there,” quarterbacks coach Charles London said in late November. “Just from him, whatever, whether it’s mastering the game plan or mastering this concept or understanding this progression, you’re seeing a little more of it each week.”
A “SLOW DRIP.” It’s a phrase Ridder hadn’t really heard until he’d arrived in Atlanta, but one he has become accustomed to, both in describing his first pro season and his whole career prior.
It’s verbiage Ridder learned from coach Arthur Smith — a connoisseur of coffee — soon after he was drafted. Smith had seen careers ruined by too much, too soon. Ridder was coming in to learn and then, potentially, start. He would not be thrust immediately into the top role.
“I just trusted him when he told me that,” Ridder told ESPN last month. “And that’s just how it’s been.”
It’s not all that dissimilar from Ridder’s high school and college experience. At St. Xavier in Louisville, Ridder said he ran the scout team his freshman and sophomore seasons before starting his junior and senior years. In college at Cincinnati, he redshirted as a freshman and ran the scout team before becoming a four-year starter.
“We’ve played some offenses that are kind of similar to ours, so a lot of times his reps are the other teams’ reps but they are similar plays, similar concepts,” London said. “He may go in there and look at the card and say, ‘Run it like we run this play.’
“That’s his rep and he understands that’s his rep.”
It’s a tricky balance. There have been points where Ridder wowed teammates with throws in practice, but to truly know the progress he has made is difficult because he’s being given the play on a card before it is run. It’s a play he’s not necessarily familiar with but also a scenario where sometimes he’s told to go to a certain spot no matter what.
Other times, he’s reading progressions based on Atlanta’s defense. So it’s a rep, sort of. But it is experience, something that could help Ridder for multiple reasons, including him not being tied to one style of play.
“It’s important when you’re developing the quarterback on scout team not telling him where to go with the ball,” Falcons safety Erik Harris said. “So he’s back there still going through progressions and stuff like that. He’s giving us amazing looks.”
Cornerback Dee Alford said if there’s a one-on-one practice matchup, Ridder is going after it like an opposing quarterback would. Even on the scout team, Alford said, Ridder has kept his aggressiveness.
Harris appreciated Ridder’s mobility and his arm. He said his decisions have improved. How can that translate to when he’s the starter? It’s unknown since Ridder hasn’t run the Falcons’ offense regularly in months.
Draft picks are never guaranteed successes anyway, and third-round quarterbacks don’t have a huge history of success as starters — the best in the past 20 years being Denver’s Russell Wilson, Cleveland’s Jacoby Brissett and former Texans and Falcons quarterback Matt Schaub. More often, third-round quarterbacks end up as career backups, such as Josh McCown, Mike Glennon and Colt McCoy, or washed out of the league entirely such as Ryan Mallett, David Greene or Ragone.
How Ridder will handle an offense that uses motion pre-snap 62.3% of the time — fifth-highest in the NFL — and an offense lining up in the pistol an NFL-high 37% of the time is unclear. But the physical skills, Atlanta’s defenders have seen some of it.
“Sometimes it’s natural, sometimes it’s what they ask for him because he’s doing the scout cards,” Falcons safety Richie Grant said. “But when he lets it go, he can spin it, man.
“He can really spin it.”
RIDDER’S FIRST PLAN was a success. He attached himself to Mariota to try and learn as much as possible. Whenever Ridder talked with the media, he said he told Mariota he’d be like a “little gnat” trying to pick up as much as possible.
Mariota was a willing teacher. He understood Ridder’s position having been a rookie starter in Tennessee in 2015, and a large part of any backup quarterback’s job is to help prepare the starter for Sunday. Ridder being as up-to-speed as possible would only be a benefit.
Mariota and Ridder were the first players in the building daily, going through plays and scripts early as preparation. Ridder, realizing where he was in his own rookie development, recognized the need to push himself in addition to the help Mariota and the coaches provided.
“Some of the ways I was doing it before obviously weren’t working enough to this point,” Ridder told ESPN in October. “So I felt like I could find something else better to help me understand and remember everything that’s in our game plan.”
Ridder began using the flash card learning tool Quizlet to help accelerate his process. Quizlet creates digital flashcards to help facilitate learning and memorization, part of what Ridder needed to jump-start the process. Prior to Quizlet, Ridder said, he was finding there were small details he wasn’t grasping.
Throughout his football life, he always has sought different ways to improve. This helped him marry formation and playcall together. The toughest thing to pick up, London said, is the playcall process. Often in college, it’s completely different than the NFL — signals or signs instead of calls — a mental transition as difficult as a physical one.
Ridder also brought in added assistance. While Quizlet helped him remember plays and formations, his wife Claire aided in repetition afterward. Every night for about 30 minutes, they’d go through the play script for the next day.
She’d read the play and then he’d rapid-fire it back to her, attempting to replicate the headset communication that then needs to be given out in the huddle.
“You can read through a list and say it, but that’s still not hearing it yourself and saying it,” Ridder said. “So being able to hear it and then say it and repeat it back, that’s one thing I learned, and you obviously have to do very well and do it quickly. That’s something that I picked up on quick.”
All of it has helped. In those post-practice workouts, Darby said Ridder has started finishing the playcall before London.
“From rookie minicamp to now, it’s like a whole different dude,” said running back Caleb Huntley, a post-practice regular. “Every practice, it’s little things he’s gotten better at. Accuracy, the deep ball, just different reads and where the ball needs to go on a given play.
“He’s made progress in that area and also being a leader.”
AT SOME POINT this season, it felt like the Falcons were going to get a look at Ridder, either because Atlanta was out of playoff contention or because Mariota struggled.
For a while, it looked like neither might happen. Mariota was leading Atlanta well enough to be a .500 team, in playoff contention as part of an uninspiring NFC South, despite beginning the year with the most dead cap space in the NFL with cap space to use (and potentially carry over to 2023).
Then things fell off. Atlanta has lost four of its past five games. Mariota hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in any of them. He has thrown nine interceptions — five of which have come in the past six games.
Where situationally Atlanta had been strong the first half of the season on third down, in two-minute situations and in the red zone, the Falcons faltered the past five weeks, converting one-third of their third down chances, scoring touchdowns on 53.8% of their red zone trips (No. 14 in the league) and scoring in the red zone 76.9% of the time, tied with Indianapolis for No. 27 in the NFL.
Moreover, Atlanta converted 11.5% of its third-and-long chances, described as third-and-7 or longer, from Week 9 on, ahead of only Washington, Houston and Carolina. And only 16.7% of Atlanta’s third-down conversions in total came by pass — ahead of only Houston and Carolina.
Smith said they have been looking constantly at potential decisions, but over the past month or so he said they were considering it more. They hope it is a benefit both in the short and long term.
“Really the last month or so, where we’ve been involved in some of these close games,” Smith said. “Where we were at in the season, where I thought we were trending, we’ve had a lot of progress offensively. Obviously, some things we’ve evolved to try and push to in the passing game.
“And we are close, but we need to get over that hump and we feel also, the growth in Desmond that we’ve seen … we feel very comfortable where he’s at right now.”
Handling situational football is one of the most important tenets of playing quarterback to Smith, and the Falcons were having issues. Atlanta wasn’t moving the ball, scoring or winning. It was time to make a change and see what Ridder can do.
There’s no guarantee it will be better than what Mariota did, because Mariota’s experience was valuable, and his ability to run helped create many opportunities for Atlanta’s running backs in zone reads. Ridder is a rookie, and there’s always a level of unpredictability there.
But he has been working for a year for this — really since he was a kid when he stopped playing linebacker in order to play quarterback full-time in sixth grade. What he has done as a backup and how he has prepared to start has led him here.
Ridder is getting a real shot as an NFL starting quarterback.
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NFC WEST
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ARIZONA
Running in open space, QB KYLER MURRAY went down – and probably out for the rest of the season. Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com:
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray was carted off the field with a noncontact knee injury less than 90 seconds into Monday night’s game against the New England Patriots.
Murray is scheduled to undergo further testing on Tuesday, including an MRI, but a source told ESPN there is “little doubt that it’s torn,” referring to an ACL.
In his postgame news conference, Arizona coach Kliff Kingsbury said Murray’s injury “doesn’t look good, but we’ll know more in the morning.”
“Obviously, it didn’t look good,” Kingsbury said. “I’ve never seen him in that type of shape, so I assumed it wasn’t good.”
Murray went down after a 3-yard run to the right on the third play of the game. The clock read 13:39 while Murray was attended to by team athletic trainers and doctors. He wasn’t touched before he went down.
“Anytime you see a noncontact injury, you know it’s worse right away,” Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins said.
“That hurt. Kyler put a lot into this. He’s been preparing his butt off to get back after the hamstring [injury that kept him out of Weeks 10 and 11], so for that to happen, I hate that for him. I know he’ll recover and get back to himself.”
Murray’s teammates took a knee around him almost immediately, and Kingsbury was also on the field checking on the star quarterback.
The cart took Murray off the field toward the Cardinals’ locker room as he sat on the back with a team athletic trainer. ESPN’s Lisa Salters reported on the game broadcast that Murray was sobbing as he entered the tunnel on the cart.
“Just tough because he controls the offense,” left tackle Josh Jones said. “He’s a crazy guy out there. He can do so much. It was tough losing him so early. I hope he’s OK. I don’t know what was going on with him. I just hope he’s OK.”
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SAN FRANCISCO
QB BROCK PURDY does not expect to be slowed by an oblique injury. Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:
49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was dealing with a minor oblique injury in Sunday’s win over the Buccaneers. But the young quarterback doesn’t expect to miss any time because of it.
Even with the short week ahead, Purdy told reporters after the game that he expects to be fine to play on Thursday night against Seattle. With the 49ers up 35-7, head coach Kyle Shanahan elected to take Purdy out in the fourth quarter for Josh Johnson.
“Yeah, I mean, we’ll see how it goes this week,” Purdy said, via 49erswebzone.com. “Just felt a little tight at the end, just from taking some hits. But honestly, man, like if I needed to play throughout the rest of the game, I definitely would have. So, I’m going to get some treatment on it and be ready to roll.”
Per Tom Pelissero of NFL Media, Purdy is slated to undergo an MRI on Monday for the oblique injury. But given that he was able to finish the game, there isn’t too much concern about the signal-caller.
Purdy was 16-of-21 passing for 185 yards with two touchdowns. He also ran in a 2-yard score in the second quarter as San Francisco finished with 404 yards of offense.
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With the 49ers on the verge of clinching the NFC West – they can get it with a win at Seattle on Thursday, the news couldn’t be better for carted-off WR DEEBO SAMUEL. Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com:
When San Francisco 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan spoke with reporters Monday morning, he didn’t have much in the way of injury updates on key players such as receiver Deebo Samuel and quarterback Brock Purdy.
That’s because Samuel and Purdy were among a handful of Niners still having further tests done to determine the severity of their injuries. After a few anxious hours at 49ers headquarters, they got what can only be considered positive news in the wake of what had all the makings of a devastating Sunday on the injury front.
According to the team, Samuel suffered a sprained medial collateral ligament in his left knee and a sprained left ankle. He will miss some time but there were no broken bones and he is “expected to return at some point during the regular season.”
As for Purdy, he’s considered day-to-day with what the team is calling a rib and oblique injury. While the Niners did not practice Monday, they had to release an estimated injury report because they play Thursday night.
On it, Purdy is listed as a limited participant, which is a positive sign he will be available to play against the Seattle Seahawks on “Thursday Night Football.” Purdy suffered the injury when he dived for a first down on a play that was called back for a holding penalty on San Francisco’s second drive Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
“I believe that’s where he felt it,” Shanahan said. “Then it just got worse on him throughout the game.”
Purdy played through the injury but departed late in the game with the Niners holding a big lead and attempting to run out the clock.
Samuel’s situation seemed more tenuous when he departed on a cart in the second quarter and did not return to the game. But the Niners had hope the injury wasn’t as bad as feared when X-rays showed no broken bones.
Starting defensive tackle Kevin Givens was another injury of note for the Niners after hurting his left knee and leaving on a cart in the first half. The team said he suffered a sprained MCL, too, and will be “out for a few weeks.”
Not all of the Niners’ injury news was good Monday, as defensive back Dontae Johnson suffered a torn ACL that ends his season. Cornerback Samuel Womack III is dealing with a concussion and also will not play this week as he goes through the protocol.
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AFC WEST
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DENVER
A gesticulating WR JERRY JEUDY clearly “made contact” with an official on Sunday, but no flag flew (he also had his helmet off). Yet Carolina lost a likely win over Atlanta when WR DJ MOORE’s helmet came off as he celebrated a TD. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com noticed:
During Sunday’s loss to the Chiefs, Broncos receiver Jerry Jeudy became unhappy with the failure of the officials to throw a flag for holding. His display should have drawn a flag, and an ejection.
Somehow it didn’t.
Jeudy removes his helmet in anger (a foul, not called), approaches and verbally accosts an official (a foul, not called), and eventually bumps the official (a foul, not called).
The rules prohibit “unnecessary physical contact with a game official,” with this explanation: “Under no circumstance is a player allowed to shove, push, or strike an official in an offensive, disrespectful, or unsportsmanlike manner. The player shall be disqualified from the game, and any such action must be reported to the Commissioner.”
The Commissioner likely didn’t need a formal report from the game site. He’s surely aware of Jeudy’s outburst. As Monday unfolds, it makes sense to keep an eye on 345 Park Avenue for discipline.
In 2017, Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch was ejected — and later suspended — for running onto the field and making contact with an official.
Per a source with knowledge of the situation, a suspension currently isn’t expected. However, a big fine is coming. Also, there’s confusion among the powers-that-be as to the failure of the officials to penalize Jeudy’s outburst.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1602080134328160261
Tony Dungy tweeted the video above and tweeted:
@TonyDungy
This is OK but don’t take your helmet off to celebrate a TD???
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Concussed QB RUSSELL WILSON is in the protocol. Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com
Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson remains in the league’s concussion protocol, and coach Nathaniel Hackett said Monday that Wilson’s availability for Sunday’s game against the Arizona Cardinals is now in the hands of the team’s medical staff and the independent physician who must approve any return to the field.
So, Hackett would neither rule Wilson out for Sunday’s game, nor predict whether Wilson would clear the protocol this week.
“We’re going to do everything the way that the medical doctors, the independent doctors, we’re going to do every single — safety is by far the most important thing,” Hackett said. “We’ll continually talk to [Wilson], talk to everybody else about that and make sure we do the right thing.”
Wilson was examined by doctors Monday as part of the protocol and was in the Broncos’ complex as Hackett said, “He felt great today when we saw him, looked great, but we want to make sure we do everything the right way.”
Wilson was forced from Sunday’s game, a 34-28 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High, after he slammed to the turf on a 13-yard scramble with 11 minutes, 45 seconds left to play in the game
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AFC NORTH
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PITTSBURGH
What happens if QB KENNY PICKETT can’t go Sunday? Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:
Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett is in the concussion protocol after being injured during last Sunday’s loss to the Ravens and it’s unclear if he’ll be cleared in time to play against the Panthers this week.
It is the second time that Pickett has been in the protocol this season, but head coach Mike Tomlin made it clear that he will start if he does get that clearance. Tomlin isn’t saying who will get the start if Pickett does not get the green light.
Mitch Trubisky opened the season as the team’s starter and he took over for Pickett against Baltimore, but Tomlin said that the team would also give snaps to Mason Rudolph in practice if Pickett is not on the field.
Tomlin said that the team would “work both guys” in that scenario and called them both “capable” of running the offense. Tomlin added that he is “not even looking toward the end of the week” when it comes to who would get the start, so it will likely be some time before there’s any word on who will be taking snaps this Sunday.
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AFC SOUTH
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HOUSTON
Not that the DB knows anything about Fantasy playoffs this year, but you might not have RB DAMEON PIERCE for your first round game this week. Jonathan Alexander of the Houston Chronicle on how his loss late Sunday confounded the Texans:
Texans coach Lovie Smith said running back Dameon Pierce suffered an ankle injury Sunday, which kept him off the field for the final two drives of the Texans’ 27-23 loss to the Cowboys, Jonathan Alexander of the Houston Chronicle reports
But he did not have an update on the severity of that injury or the rookie’s status for their Week 15 game.
“It’s always a concerning when a player doesn’t finish a game,” Smith said Monday. “It will take an awful lot for him not to play. Hopefully, it’s short term, but we’ll see.”
Pierce has been the Texans’ best player this season. He has 939 yards rushing this season in 13 games, which is seventh in the NFL. He also has four touchdowns. Against the Cowboys, he had 78 yards rushing on 22 carries and a touchdown.
Pierce first suffered the injury with 14:13 left in the fourth quarter. He hobbled off the field after being looked at by trainers, but returned on the team’s next drive. He had another rush for two yards with 10:50 left, but he did not record another stat.
Because of Pierce’s injury, he did not play on the Texans’ final two offensive drives. Those drives ultimately determined the outcome of the game. The second-to-last drive started at the Dallas 4-yard line, and ended in a turnover on downs and no points. At the time, the Texans were leading 23-20 with about five minutes left. A touchdown would have put the game away.
“It affected quite a bit,” Smith said Sunday. “First-and-goal inside the 5, the plan would’ve been a little bit different, but nobody wants to hear about injuries. We’ve had quite a few. If Dameon would’ve been healthy and ready to go, of course he would’ve been in there.”
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We wonder what’s going on with RB ENO BENJAMIN. This from Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:
It looks like running back Eno Benjamin‘s time is up in Houston.
Adam Schefter of ESPN reports that the Texans will waive Benjamin on Tuesday. The move ends a brief stay with the team.
Benjamin was waived by the Cardinals in mid-November and the Texans claimed him the next day. He appeared in two games with the AFC South club and ran three times for one yard in those contests.
Benjamin ran 70 times for 299 yards and two touchdowns in 10 games for the Cardinals before he was cut loose.
Dameon Pierce, Rex Burkhead, and Dare Ogunbowale are the remaining running backs on the Houston roster.
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INDIANAPOLIS
After apparently pondering a switch to QB NICK FOLES, Interim Coach Jeff Saturday opts to stick with veteran QB MATT RYAN for Saturday in Minnesota and beyond. James Boyd of The Athletic:
The Colts’ season has been filled with changes, including at quarterback, but interim head coach Jeff Saturday said Monday that another one isn’t coming. Matt Ryan, who was injured and benched earlier this season before Saturday put him back in the starting lineup, will remain QB1 as Indianapolis returns from its bye week and prepares to play at Minnesota on Saturday.
“Matt’s gonna be our guy,” Saturday said. “I plan on him practicing well this week and going to play a good game against the Vikings.”
Ryan’s turnover woes reached their peak with a season-high four (three interceptions and one lost fumble) in the Colts’ 54-19 loss at Dallas in Week 13, potentially opening the door for Nick Foles to replace him. Saturday made Foles the backup over second-year QB Sam Ehlinger prior to the Cowboys game because of Foles’ experience. Asked afterward if Ryan would be benched again, this time in favor of Foles (the first time was for Ehlinger), Saturday said, “No decision I’m going to make right now’s going to be a good decision. We’ve got weeks to go about this.”
Now that he’s had time to think, Saturday will stick with Ryan as the Colts’ starter and Foles as the backup for the final four games of the season. Indianapolis is 4-8-1 and Ryan has led game-winning drives in each of the team’s four wins, but the 2016 league MVP has largely looked like a shell of himself. Ryan has had four games with both one interception and one lost fumble and seven games with at least two turnovers overall.
“I hate to pinpoint one guy or one position, but obviously that’s the quarterback position in the NFL. You get way too much credit, you get way too much blame,” Saturday said. “There’s part of his game that has to improve and we’ve talked about that with a number of different guys. We gotta play our best, and if we’re gonna win, we need Matt playing his A game and that’s my expectation for him.”
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AFC EAST
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BUFFALO
The Bills are putting old gang back together as WR COLE BEASLEY un-retires to join Buffalo’s practice squad. Nick Wojton of USA Today:
Plot twist: Cole Beasley is signing with the Buffalo Bills, not Odell Beckham Jr.
According to NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo, Beasley is signing a deal to join Buffalo’s practice squad.
The expectation is that Beasley, 33, will likely be called up from the taxi squad on upcoming games days, which is what the team has done with John Brown. Brown, like Beasley, formerly played with the Bills early in quarterback Josh Allen’s career and was brought back to provide depth.
Beasley was more recently in Buffalo than Brown. Beasley caught tons of attention in 2021 relating to the NFL’s COVID-19 protocols and he became a bit of a lightning rod for attention because of that.
After an All-Pro year in 2020, his production dropped off a year ago. However, general manager Brandon Beane long said he expected Beasley to return to the Bills in 2022 but the wideout ended up asking to be moved and he was.
This from Louie del Rio of Channel 4 in Buffalo:
@LouieDelRio4
I was just told this is all Josh Allen. He’s specifically asked for Brown & Beasley. The team was approached about the move. Not one player in the locker room opposed. #Bills
Ryan Heckman of BuffaloLowDown wonders if defying the media’s preferences will cause turmoil.
The positive, of course, is that Beasley has rapport with Josh Allen and is a former All Pro. He’s a sure-handed guy who knows how to play well in the winter elements. He’s a savvy veteran. But, the negative is pretty obvious.
Cole Beasley re-signing with the Buffalo Bills could come with a price, especially when it comes to the media.
Beasley may be a good football player, but over the past two years, he has found himself in plenty of controversy due to his stance on the pandemic and all things COVID-related.
Now, I’m not here to sway anybody one way or the other. Everybody has an opinion, and everyone is entitled to that opinion.
But, with Beasley being a sports figure and celebrity, his in-your-face point of view could end up becoming a distraction to the team.
The Bills seemed to do just fine with Beasley, through the height of the pandemic, but he’s gotten even more firm and outspoken when it comes to his political views.
Again, his opinions and attitude are neither a good nor bad thing. He is a human being and is allowed to freely think. But, his views do tend to rub people the wrong way. Whether or not you agree with him on sensitive topics, you have to agree that he could become a major liability.
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THIS AND THAT
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BROADCAST NEWS
Nielsen announced awesome Thanksgiving ratings. The NFL contends those awesome ratings represent just a fraction of the people who really watched. Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:
As fans find more and more ways to watch pro football live, it’s becoming harder and harder to properly calculate the number of fans who are actually watching live pro football.
As it relates to the triple header of NFL games from Thanksgiving, the NFL contends that the actual audience for the trio of contests was 31 percent higher than previously reported by Nielsen, the company that for decades has generated the ratings numbers for television.
The league has issued a statement in which it explains that it “collaborated” with Nielsen on a “survey” in order to “complement” Nielsen’s data, in order to provide a “detailed picture” of the number of people who watched the games “particularly in group settings.”
The survey of 5,800 households resulted in a conclusion that the average-minute audience for the three games was 44.1 million, a 31-percent bump over the 33.6 million that Nielsen initially reported.
“The results showcase the unique nature of Thanksgiving Day football, which for football fans has become intrinsically intertwined with a national holiday that brings families and friends together for a day of appreciation and gratitude,” the league said in a statement. “Many watch in larger-than-normal group settings such as an extended family member or friend’s home, bar, or restaurant. . . . With three games spread across the entire day, the opportunity to catch the games while preparing the big meal, visiting multiple households on the same afternoon, or perhaps even after the neighborhood’s touch-football game provides fans ample chance to catch NFL action.”
Numbers were not generated (or, more accurately, not released) as to the specific games. The Giants-Cowboys contest was the most-watched regular season game ever, with 42 million viewers watching, on average. Was it 31 percent higher than that? That would be an astonishing (and perhaps facially implausible) audience of 55 million.
The key word for all of this is “credible.” Surveys become extrapolations. Any calculation like this hinges on a series of assumptions and approximations. There’s simply no way of assessing the quality of the assumptions and approximations without: (1) having full access to all of the information that was collected; and (2) knowing enough about the industry to properly assess whether any, some, or all of the assumptions were conservative, aggressive, or somewhere in between.
I’m NOT saying that creative accounting was used here. But there’s always going to be a clear temptation to find ways to construct survey questions, to select geographic locations for implementing the survey, and to analyze the numbers in a way that gently pushes them higher. As pointed out earlier this year after the first wave of Amazon numbers, there’s always room for a healthy dose of skepticism when the fox is doing the official henhouse inventory.
That said, the combination of captive audience and three compelling games undoubtedly generated a very big TV audience. Was it 31 percent higher than 33.6 million? No one will ever know with certainty. Regardless, it’s fair to say it was massive, and impressive. The NFL is the one product that can consistently collect and deliver a gigantic audience, even at a time when fewer and fewer people gather around the TV (or the computer or the tablet or the phone) to watch the same thing at the same time.
But put another way, with 350 million in the country, are there really 310 million that didn’t at least have the game on during the Thanksgiving gathering? If you went to 10 homes, would eight not have the game on?
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2023 DRAFT
Austin Mock and The Athletic offer this look at the top 10 of the 2023 draft after 14 weeks of NFL play. Three of the projected top five picks have already changed hands.
Austin Mock’s projected top 10 (Dec. 13) –
after playing remaining games on computer 10,000 times
Projected Wins #1 % Current Spot
Houston 1.9 92.8% 1
Chicago 3.9 5.7% 3
Seattle (from Den) 4.6 1.1% 2
Detroit (from L.A. Rams) 5.5 0.1% 4
Philadelphia (from NO) 5.9 0.1% 5
Arizona 5.8 0.1% 6
Indianapolis 6.1 0.1% 7
Carolina 6.6 0.0% 9
Atlanta 6.8 0.0% 10
Las Vegas 6.8 0.0% 8
A few thoughts on where things stand headed into Week 15:
1. A silver lining for the Seahawks
Seattle’s playoff hopes took a hit in Week 14, as a surprising home loss to Carolina dropped Pete Carroll’s team out of a wild-card spot, at least temporarily. The good news for the Seahawks, though, is that the Broncos dropped their fifth consecutive game to fall to 3-10. In doing so, Denver leapfrogged Chicago for the No. 2 pick (strength of schedule is the tiebreaker in determining draft order; a team with the weaker schedule gets the higher pick).
Austin’s projections still have the Bears finishing in that second spot 59.1 percent of the time (Seattle via Denver is at 18.3), but the gap is narrowing. It could be significant, especially if the Seahawks decide to ride into 2023 with Geno Smith. Since the Bears also don’t need a quarterback this year — thank you, Justin Fields — the decision at No. 2, in either case, could come down to a defender (Will Anderson Jr., Jalen Carter) or a trade down.
2. Did Detroit’s Round 1 hopes take a hit?
Had Baker Mayfield not led an inexplicable Rams comeback last Thursday, the Lions (via L.A.) would be sitting at No. 3 and the Bears at No. 4. They’re flipped, for the moment. Of course, Detroit also still has its own first-round pick (currently No. 15, projected to land at No. 16), so GM Brad Holmes might be able to climb into that second draft position if he needs to.
Our model also doesn’t see the Rams going on a hot streak to close the year. The Fightin’ Mayfields, now 4-9, are projected for 5.5 wins, but they still have a better than 51-percent chance of handing Detroit a top-four pick. Mock has them at 22 percent to finish in the No. 3 spot and 20.3 percent to hold at No. 4.
3. The Saints are fading
After Week 13, New Orleans — its first-round pick headed to Philadelphia via trade — was projected to finish No. 10, at 6.4 wins. Now, off a bye week, the Saints are down to 5.9 projected wins and a landing spot of No. 5 in the latest top-10 update. They finished there 15.3 percent of the time during Austin’s post-Week 14 simulations; they were in either fourth or sixth position on a combined 30 percent of outcomes.
The Eagles themselves remain the favorites to lead the NFL in wins (with a projection of 14.8) and to pick 31st as the Super Bowl champs. (Remember, the Dolphins were stripped of their first-round selection this year, so there is one fewer Round 1 slot.) Remarkably, the Saints still have a shot to join Philadelphia in the playoffs. They’re in last place but still just two games back in a downtrodden NFC South.
4. Seattle and Washington are the favorites for the NFC’s final two wild-card spots
You can’t see this detail in the top 10 above, but the Seahawks (8.9 projected wins) and Commanders (8.8) are holding a slight edge on the field for the NFC’s last playoff spots. It’ll likely take at least nine, possibly 10, wins to secure that positioning, but Austin has Seattle and Washington holding off the Giants (8.3) and Lions (8.3). The Buccaneers, with 8.0 projected wins, still have a comfortable edge for a division title.
This week could go a long way in determining how it all plays out. Seattle hosts Week 13 hero Brock Purdy and San Francisco on Thursday night; the Lions head on the road to play the Jets; and the Giants and Commanders meet for the second time in three weeks on Sunday night.
5. Who’s claiming that last AFC wild card?
Austin’s projections still likes the struggling Titans (9.1 projected wins) to claim the AFC South title, and it has the Dolphins (10.1) cruising to a wild-card berth, despite an ongoing two-game losing streak. There are still eight other teams alive for the final playoff spot, though, with the Patriots currently occupying that No. 7 seed after a Monday night win in Arizona.
However, our model has the Chargers (9.2) overtaking the Patriots (8.8) over the season’s final four weeks. The Chargers have a very manageable closing stretch: Tennessee, at Indianapolis, L.A. Rams, at Denver. The Patriots, meanwhile, have to play in Las Vegas this Sunday, then finish with Cincinnati, Miami and at Buffalo. That’s a tougher hill to climb, without question.
The Jets (8.9) are going to be right there, too. After hosting the Lions this weekend and Jaguars next weekend, they’ll finish at Seattle and at Miami. The race should go down to the wire, but we’re giving Justin Herbert and Co., the edge right now.
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