| If The Season Ended Today in the NFC: NFC W-L Conf Last Week %Detroit North 13-2 9-1 1 100 (playoffs)Philadelphia East 12-3 7-3 2 100 (playoffs) LA Rams West 9-6 5-5 8 81 (+27%) Atlanta South 8-7 7-3 9 48 (+12%)Minnesota WC1 13-2 8-2 WC1 100 (playoffs)Green Bay WC2 11-4 5-4 WC2 100 (playoffs)Washington WC3 10-5 7-3 WC3 94 (16%)Tampa Bay South 8-7 6-4 4 58 (-25%)Seattle 8-7 4-6 8 19 (-29%) So – in the NFC West, Seattle needs to win the last two, at Chicago and the finale against the Rams, and they will be tied with LA even when and if the Rams win this week at home against Arizona. With a win, they would have a split with the Rams – and it would apparently go to the strength of victory tiebreaker How the Rams can clinch the NFC West: Win + Seattle loss at Chicago (8:15 p.m. ET, Thursday) OR Win + clinch strength of victory tiebreaker over Seattle The Rams 9 wins add up to wins over teams with 60 victories – and win over the Cardinals would put them at 67 (plus any wins by the teams they have beaten) for 10 wins. Seattle is now at 51 for 8 wins, with the Bears and Rams they would be at 65 (plus any wins by the teams they have beaten). Without getting into all the other possibilities, the Week 18 game between SF and Arizona could be vital to deciding this tiebreaker. The Rams have 2 wins over the 49ers and would get two strength of victory points if SF beat ARZ. The Seahawks come-from-behind hopes would be buoyed if the Cardinals, who they beat twice, take the 49ers. In the NFC South, the Buccaneers need to win both games – and Atlanta needs to lose one. Each team has the suddenly-stubborn Panthers at home. Tampa Bay seems to have the better end of the draw with the moribund Saints at home in Week 18 while Atlanta goes to Washington this Saturday with the Commanders needs a win to clinch at least Wild Card 3. |
| NFC NORTH |
| GREEN BAYThe easy win over the Saints came at the cost of a knee injury to WR CHRISTIAN WATSON. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: The Packers got an easy win on Monday night. But it didn’t come without a dark cloud. Receiver Christian Watson left with a knee injury. More will be learned on Tuesday as to its severity. “There’s some concern there, certainly,” coach Matt LaFleur said after the game, via Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com. “We’re going to get some more testing done tomorrow. Hopefully, I’ll have an answer for you tomorrow.” Watson suffered the injury, returned to the game, and then exited for good. “It definitely hurt right away, but it felt like it was good enough to go back in, so I went back in and it was feeling all right,” Watson said. “But it was just kind of lingering a little bit and I just couldn’t play the type of football I wanted to play, so I just had to shut it down.” The Packers have clinched a playoff berth, and they could still finish as the No. 5 seed in the NFC. Whether five or six, they’ll be on the road to face the eventual champions of the NFC South or NFC West — and the Packers likely will be favored in either game. The Packers face the Vikings on Sunday, in a game that was moved from 1:00 p.m. ET to 4:25 p.m. ET. As we go to press comes word that Watson’s ailment is a bruised knee and he might even play on Sunday on the FOX America’s Game of the Week. With the above move in time, he has 3 hours and 25 minutes more to heal. |
| MINNESOTACould this be the Vikings year? ANSWERED: Minnesota might just do this thing, at lastThe ghosts of the past hang heavy over the heads of Vikings fans. Losses in four of the first 11 Super Bowls, Morten Andersen kicking the 15-1 Vikings out of the playoffs in 1998, the Minneapolis Miracle leading to Philly Frustration in 2018 … so many chances for championship glory, so many failures, over and over. So you can understand why the Skol faithful might not be 100 percent ready to give themselves over to this team. That said … the rest of us can start. Yes, Sam Darnold has never started a playoff game. But he’s got the best possible armor around him in the Vikings’ offensive gameplan and defensive intensity, and he’s also got a Hulk of his own in Justin Jefferson. Minnesota survived what could have been a look-ahead loss to Seattle Sunday, in large part because Jefferson played a starring role with 144 yards receiving and two touchdowns. The Vikings close with divisional games against the Packers and Lions and a very real chance to claim the NFC North crown. Up until a few weeks ago, we would have said “vulture” or “steal” the divisional title, but the Vikings have proven themselves every bit the equal of their rivals. Now it’s down to who wins, straight up. If you’re a Vikings fan, it’s OK to hope. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com with a fairly succinct look at the Vikings QB SAM DARNOLD conundrum: After the Vikings gave up an opening-drive touchdown to the Giants in the wild-card round of the 2022 playoffs, former Cowboys coach Jason Garrett turned to me in the NBC viewing room and said, “It’s gonna be a long day for that defense.” After the Vikings scored an opening-drive touchdown on Sunday against the Seahawks, Garrett had another pearl of wisdom, as to quarterback Sam Darnold: “They can’t let him out of the building.” Starting with the comeback to beat the Cardinals in Week 13, Darnold reached a higher level of performance. He operates efficiently from the pocket. He moves when he needs to, buying enough time to find an open man. And he’s throwing more and more accurately. His game-winning 39-yard touchdown pass to receiver Justin Jefferson in Seattle was perhaps the best throw of the year, by any quarterback. Darnold didn’t just step up into the pocket; he sprinted through it. And he was able to deliver a strike with the right amount of touch to drop the ball between a pair of defenders. So what happens next? They could extend Darnold’s contract now, betting that he’ll keep getting better and that the price to keep him will keep going up. They would wait until after the season, negotiating with him as a choice between the franchise tag or the free market looms. The Vikings could roll the dice that he won’t get a better offer than what Minnesota would pay, banking on the notion that other teams will believe that only the Vikings and coach Kevin O’Connell can coax this type of performance out of him. Once he’s out of the building, however, he might not come back. The fallback is the franchise tag, which will be in the range of $40 million for one more year. That could be the starting point for a longer-term deal, with the ability to keep him for two more years at a total expenditure of $88 million. Complicating matters is the investment made in rookie J.J. McCarthy. Ideally, they’d transition at the right time from Darnold to McCarthy. And the right time might not be now. That’s going to be the biggest conundrum for the Vikings in the 2025 offseason. They ultimately got it right with Kirk Cousins; dollar for dollar, Darnold at $10 million is a steal. Will they get it right with Darnold? Some would call it a good problem to have. Still, the best problem is no problem at all. |
| NFC EAST |
| DALLASMike McCarthy isn’t the only Dallas coach with two more games left on his contract. Todd Archer of ESPN.com: McCarthy and the entire coaching staff are on expiring contracts. With last week’s win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, McCarthy moved past Jeff Fisher for the 13th-most regular season wins in NFL history (173). He has a 49-33 regular-season record with the Cowboys, but the team has not advanced past the divisional round of the playoffs. On Monday, McCarthy was asked if he was eager to have some kind of resolution on his status moving forward. “I do believe in time and place, and this is not the time or the place for me to speak on it,” McCarthy said. “Really, my focus is more about the staff. Their concern is higher for me, because change is something that happens in our league all the time. It’s part of this industry. And I understand it. I am at a different point in my life. I’m more focused on them, and I know that the best way to help everybody is to take care of what’s in front of us. And that’s why the commitment, the pride … I think it benefits everybody for me just to stay on course.” |
| PHILADELPHIAEven after the loss to the Commanders, Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com still has the Eagles atop his current NFL rankings: Recency bias is rampant in the NFL. The way the Philadelphia Eagles will be talked about this week, you’d think their record is 0-1 instead of 12-3. The Eagles lost on Sunday. They allowed Jayden Daniels to throw for five touchdown passes. The final one came with six seconds left and won the game for the Washington Commanders. That wasn’t a great result for the Eagles. But losing in the final seconds, on the road to a 10-win team, with quarterback Jalen Hurts sidelined with a concussion after a hit early, isn’t that bad. It was Philadelphia’s first loss since Sept. 29. Here’s a list of every team that has lost at least once since the start of October: all of them. The Bills lost in Week 14. The Lions lost in Week 15. The Vikings have lost to the Lions and the Chiefs have a loss to the Bills. Any team’s résumé will have some flaw. Philadelphia still has one of the best defenses in the NFL, despite a bad game on Sunday. Would the Eagles have won if Hurts was there to make one more play than Kenny Pickett made? Probably. The Eagles would have won if DeVonta Smith would have caught a late third-down pass that he practically never drops. It’s hard to be perfect over a long season, and all we learned Sunday is the Eagles aren’t perfect. Philadelphia is the most balanced team among the contenders. There aren’t any glaring weaknesses. One loss doesn’t change that just because it’s the most recent thing we saw. And that loss doesn’t change Philly’s standing as No. 1 in the power rankings. |
| WASHINGTONPete Prisco of CBSSports.com says the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race is over. All the young NFL quarterbacks have their signature moments at some point, a play or a drive that shows off their talent and screams to the rest of the league that they are destined for special things. Jayden Daniels had his moment Sunday. The rookie quarterback for the Washington Commanders beat the Chicago Bears earlier this season on a Hail Mary, but that’s essentially an accident, not a moment. Any quarterback with a big arm is capable of that. What we saw him do Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles is different. It’s career defining. It’s essentially sending out a loud message to the rest of the NFL that they will have to deal with him for at least the next decade. The Commanders beat the Eagles, 36-33, thanks to a 9-yard touchdown pass from Daniels to Jamison Crowder with six seconds left. He started that drive at his own 43-yard line with 1:52 left and promptly led the Commanders to the victory. Daniels threw five touchdown passes, and he did it against an Eagles defense that had been dominant over the course of their 10-game winning streak heading into Sunday. In addition to the five touchdown passes, he also led the Commanders with 81 yards rushing. Daniels is the first rookie quarterback to throw for five or more touchdowns and rush for 65 or more yards in a single game in NFL history. The clutch gene, which all great quarterbacks have, is what makes him special. He never seems to get rattled. On a fourth-and-11 in the third quarter, he ran for 29 yards and a big first down. Before Sunday’s game, I said on our pre-game show that the Eagles game would be a proving game for Daniels and the Commanders. It was for both in a big way, The Commanders, who are up to eighth in my Power Rankings this week, are 10-5 with two games to play. It’s unlikely they will catch the Eagles to win the NFC East, but they served notice that they will be a tough out come playoff time — no matter who they play. Daniels made sure that happened Sunday, and in the process locked up the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. It’s special moments that decide those type of awards, and Daniels had his to beat the Eagles, a signature moment for sure. The Commanders got a holiday assist from the US Senate that will enable the District of Columbia to wheel and deal to get a new stadium on the hallowed ground of RFK Stadium that will MDCGA. This from NBCNews4: The U.S. Senate has passed a bill granting control of the old RFK Stadium site to the District of Columbia, a last-minute passage that helps clear the way for the Washington Commanders to potentially move back to the city. The passage early Saturday comes after a provision to transfer control of the land from the federal government to D.C. was removed from Congress’ slimmed-down, short-term spending bill as lawmakers raced to pass it before a government shutdown. The Commanders are considering locations in the District, Maryland and Virginia to build a stadium in the coming years. Their lease at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland, runs through 2027, and Harris called 2030 a “reasonable target” for a new one. The team played at RFK Stadium two miles east of the Capitol from 1961 to 1996 before moving to Maryland. Harris and several co-owners, including Mitch Rales and Mark Ein, grew up as Washington football fans during that era, which included the glory days of three Super Bowl championships between 1982 and 1991. The bill will transfer administrative jurisdiction of the RFK site from the Secretary of the Interior to the D.C. government. While the federal government will still own the land, D.C. will be able to redevelop the land for a stadium, commercial and residential development and other public purposes, according to the office of U.S. Rep. James Comer, R-Kentucky, who introduced the bill. “The Senate’s passage of the D.C. RFK Stadium Campus Revitalization Act is a historic moment for our nation’s capital,” Comer said in a statement Saturday. “If Congress failed to act today, this decaying land in Washington would continue to cost taxpayers a fortune to maintain. Revitalizing this RFK Memorial Stadium site has been a top economic priority for the city, and I am proud to have partnered with D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser to get this bill across the finish line and to the President’s desk.” The U.S. House passed the bill in February. With the bill’s passage in the Senate as well, it now heads to President Joe Biden to be signed into law. “This is a win for DC, for our region, and for America,” Bowser wrote in a social media post Saturday morning. “Everybody loves a good comeback story — and that’s DC’s story.” |
| NFC SOUTH |
| ATLANTA |
| CAROLINA |
| NEW ORLEANSWho started the clock before the half Monday night? Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com on 15 fateful seconds at the end of the first half: As the Saints attempted to get into scoring position late in the first half on Monday night, about 15 seconds ran off the clock while they didn’t realize the clock was running. Saints interim head coach Darren Rizzi was not happy about that. The clock was stopped briefly after Saints receiver Kevin Austin fumbled the ball out of bounds, but then re-started as soon as the ball was brought back to be spotted for the next play. Rizzi said after the game that the official told him the clock would remain stopped, and that he would have immediately called timeout if he had known. “Both covering officials ruled the clock stopped,” Rizzi said. “I asked the official, the covering official, if the clock was going to remain stopped. I got a yes, and I turned back to talk to the offensive coaches and talk about our plan there and what we were going to do there at the end of the half, and then they decided that he fumbled the ball forward and it just wasn’t communicated to me that the clock had re-started so we lost some precious valuable time there. So that’s what happened.” It was a major clock management error at one of the few points in the game when the Saints were in a position where they thought they might score. The Saints ultimately lost 34-0. “If you come away with no points, you have zero chance of winning the game,” Rizzi said. |
| NFC WEST |
| ARIZONAThoughts from Coach Jonathan Gannon after an OT loss at Carolina ended the Cardinals playoff hopes. Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com: A day after the Arizona Cardinals were eliminated from playoff contention after sitting atop the NFC West a month ago, coach Jonathan Gannon shouldered the blame for his team’s collapse down the stretch. The Cardinals have lost four of their past five games, including a 36-30 overtime loss to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, after heading into their bye week 6-4. “I’m not satisfied with the performance of the team, and that starts with me,” Gannon said. “So, what I’m really saying, that’s an indictment on myself. I’m not satisfied with myself.” Gannon described a lot of what happened in Sunday’s loss to then-three-win Panthers as “self-inflicted.” The Cardinals went down 20-3 in the second quarter only to pull within 23-20. They then went down 30-20 but came back to tie the game at 30 at the end of regulation only to lose in the extra period. Arizona couldn’t contain Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard, who ran for 152 yards, and struggled to defend quarterback Bryce Young on the ground as he ran for 68 yards and a touchdown on five carries. Gannon said it was “disappointing,” but put the loss on himself. “That starts with me,” Gannon said. “Dug ourselves out of the hole, had some chances to win it and, ultimately, all three phases didn’t do enough. So, it’s a good learning experience.” Even though the Cardinals don’t have a postseason berth to play for, Gannon said he still feels “great” about having two games left. On Saturday night, Arizona will visit the Los Angeles Rams, who currently lead the NFC West. The Cardinals can’t completely ruin the Rams’ postseason hopes with a win but beating them at SoFi Stadium would make the Rams’ road to the postseason a bit more difficult. Then the Cardinals return home to finish the season in Week 18 against the San Francisco 49ers, who have also been eliminated from postseason contention. “It’s obviously not the outcome we wanted that we’re not going to be playing in mid-January, but I’m excited for these two opportunities,” he said. “One on the road versus a playoff team and then a team that’s been winning our division for a long time.” To Gannon, two more games means more time build toward next season — just like Arizona did last season when it wasn’t playing for anything most of the season. “I understand how a lot of people think, I guess,” he said. “But when you’re in our seat, you get the joy is competition. So, last year we weren’t playing for anything. We made a lot of hay and got a lot better and we did a lot of good things last year that I thought that we built on and followed us a little bit into this year, you know what I mean? “So, they’re learning opportunities for us and we’re going to go play a really good team and I’m excited about it. That’s the competitor in me, can’t wait to play on Saturday. I wish it was here, but you got to go through the process.” |
| AFC NORTH |
| PITTSBURGHThe Steelers are welcoming back WR GEORGE PICKENS for Wednesday’s big game with the Chiefs. Myles Simmons with ProFootballTalk.com: George Pickens is officially set to return. After missing the last three games, Pickens (hamstring) is off the injury report and is available to play against the Chiefs on Christmas Day. Pickens was listed as a limited participant on Sunday’s report but a full participant on Monday and Tuesday. Pickens leads Pittsburgh with 55 catches and 850 yards. He’s caught three touchdowns this season. Quarterback Justin Fields (abdominal) is questionable to play after he was listed as limited on Monday and Tuesday. Cornerback Joey Porter Jr. (knee) and receiver Ben Skowronek (hip) are out. Defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi (groin), cornerback Donte Jackson (back), and safety DeShon Elliott (hamstring) are off the report and are expected to play. |
| AFC SOUTH |
| HOUSTONWith WR TANK DELL suffering his severe injury, the Texans are rolling the dice that WR DIONTAE JOHNSON can contribute something. ESPN.com: The Houston Texans, in need of receiving help after Tank Dell’s season-ending knee injury, claimed wide receiver Diontae Johnson off waivers Monday. Earlier Monday, the team announced that Dell suffered a torn ACL and dislocated kneecap in the Texans’ 27-19 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday. The Los Angeles Chargers were the only other team to place a waiver claim on Johnson, a source told ESPN’s Field Yates. The Ravens waived Johnson on Friday, ending his drama-filled seven weeks with the team. The Ravens suspended him for one game after he refused to play in a Dec. 1 game against the Philadelphia Eagles and then he was excused from team activities last week. Baltimore had acquired Johnson in a trade with the Carolina Panthers on Oct. 29, but he played only 39 snaps for the team, catching one pass for 6 yards. The Ravens, meanwhile, claimed wide receiver/kick returner Steven Sims off waivers from the Texans on Monday. Sims averaged 27.9 yards on seven kickoff returns and 6.2 yards on 16 punt returns this season. The Texans host the Ravens on Christmas Day. The Texans were thin at receiver beyond star wideout Nico Collins after also losing Stefon Diggs to a torn ACL earlier this season. John Metchie III, Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson are other receivers on the Texans’ depth chart. The Panthers acquired Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers before the season. He had 30 catches for 257 yards and three touchdowns for Carolina when he was dealt to the Ravens. The Steelers drafted Johnson in the third round of the 2019 draft and he had 391 catches for 4,363 yards and 25 touchdowns in Pittsburgh. He earned a Pro Bowl selection in 2021 with his lone 1,000-yard season and a career-high eight touchdown receptions in quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s final year. He will be an unrestricted free agent after the season. |
| AFC EAST |
| NEW YORK JETSThe ever-quotable QB AARON RODGERS dares Brick Johnson to cut him. Rich Cimini of ESPN.com: New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers, whose football future remains a mystery, suggested Monday that he could be released at the end of the season. He also joked about the possibility of being released by the owner’s teenage son — an obvious poke at owner Woody Johnson and the latest controversy surrounding the organization. “Being released would be a first; being released by a teenager, that would also be a first,” Rodgers said with a laugh during his weekly spot on “The Pat McAfee Show.” “So, hey, I’m open to everything and I find the comedy in all of it. If that happens, hey, it’s a great story.” It was a reference to a story last week by The Athletic, which reported that Johnson, 77, takes advice from his teenage sons, Brick and Jack. Rodgers, 41, has said the Jets are his “first option” if he decides to return for a 21st season. The Jets are in the process of a regime change, as they fired coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas during the season — a 4-11 disaster. The new decision-makers will have a lot to say about Rodgers’ fate, although the feeling among those close to the team is that Woody Johnson wants to move on from the future Hall of Famer, who is signed for 2025. “I think there’s a world where they just say, ‘Hey, thank you, we’re going to go in another direction’ on January 6th,” said Rodgers, referring to the day after the regular season. “…That’s a possibility. I think there’s also a possibility we’re going to wait and see who the new staff is.” When Brick Johnson’s name was mentioned on the show, Rodgers chimed in. Trying to hold back his laughter, he replied, “Just to answer that, there’s a first time for everything — and there’s been a few of those this year and first time in 20 years.” A source confirmed to ESPN that Johnson’s sons are “very much” involved in football matters. The Jets have denied that. Rodgers made it clear that he has some issues with the team’s culture. He’s bothered by leaks within the organization, something he has mentioned several times over the past two seasons. On Monday, he went so far as to say that it’s impacting the outcome of games. “What’s best for the Jets is not having these type of leaks all the time, and when that gets figured out then it’ll be a little easier to win,” he said. “I mean, it doesn’t have a direct impact on the players on the field, but it has an impact on the culture and the chemistry and the overall energy of the building, and that’s what needs to get better.” As for his own future, Rodgers reiterated that he’s willing to take a pay cut, saying he has already made “a ton of money” in his career. Under his current contract, renegotiated last year, he’s due a $35 million option bonus and a $2.5 million base salary in 2025 — none of it guaranteed. He took a $34 million pay cut last year to provide cap relief to pursue free agents. “I think I’ve already proven I’m willing to take a pay cut,” he said, asserting that his contract and that of wide receiver Davante Adams would have to be renegotiated for them to return. Rodgers’ 2025 cap charge is a manageable $23.5 million, although the team would get hit with a $49 million dead charge if he’s released or traded. Adams’ cap charge is a prohibitive $38.3 million, which consists mostly of nonguaranteed base salary. Rodgers is having a down year by his standards, ranking 23rd in QBR (52.2), but he’s on the verge of some milestones. He needs one touchdown pass to become the fifth player in history with 500, and he needs 497 passing yards to eclipse Joe Namath’s franchise record (4,007), set in 1967. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| NETFLIX AND CHRISTMASThose with Netflix can watch football on Wednesday. Or maybe not, as Mike Florio wonders: On Wednesday, Netflix will stream NFL games for the first time ever, only weeks after a disastrous, for many, experience with the streaming of the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight. From outages to glitches to video that was often far from crisp and clear, the NFL (and Netflix) can’t afford a repeat on Christmas Day. In the aftermath of a dry run that was all wet, we suggested that the NFL have an emergency option that would divert the games to a network partner. With CBS producing the games for Netflix, it would make sense to send the signal to CBS if/when trouble arises for Netflix. So we asked the league this question earlier today: “Are there any contingency plans in place for tomorrow in the event Netflix has technical issues?” Here’s the response we received, from a league spokesperson: “We will be prepared and we are looking forward to a great day.” That doesn’t say there’s a plan in place to deliver the content through a traditional TV network. It also doesn’t say there isn’t. Regardless, the NFL says it will be prepared. Hopefully, everything will work smoothly for the league, for Netflix, and for everyone who fires up Netflix and turns on either Chiefs-Steelers or Ravens-Texans — or both. |
| RANKING THE CHALLENGERSChris Trapasso of CBSSports.com identifies 5 teams that might beat the Chiefs in a playoff game. Buffalo, Baltimore, Detroit, Minnesota would seem to be four. Will Denver be on the list we ask before looking? That got us wondering — how would we rank the teams who actually could beat the back-to-back defending champion Chiefs in the playoffs? I’ve narrowed my list to five teams, regardless of conference, best equipped to top the Chiefs in the postseason. 5. Cincinnati Bengals The Bengals still need the dominoes to fall in a specific manner to make the playoffs, yet they have some control over the outcome with a colossal Week 17 matchup at home with the current No. 7-seeded Broncos. According to The New York Times playoff simulator, if Cincinnati wins its two final games — Week 18 is on the road against the Steelers — its playoff chances are 14.8%, so this unequivocally is a long-shot. For this article, that point is essentially irrelevant. If the Bengals get in, they have the makeup to provide the NFL with what on paper would be the most shocking upset in the short history of the seven-team-per-conference playoff format that began in 2020. All the way back in September, the Bengals were a split-second defensive pass interference call away — which was the right call — from beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead. They lost 26-25 in Week 2, and in that game, Joe Burrow went 23 of 36 passing for 256 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions without Tee Higgins available. As an offense, Cincinnati registered a rather high 51.6% success rate, fourth-highest in football that week. Of course, the teams have taken on different shapes since then, but Burrow’s history against the Chiefs would likely weigh heavily on the minds of Kansas City’s defenders. In three-regular season games, he has a 127.7 passer rating in contests against the Chiefs, the second-highest rating he’s managed against one opponent with multiple matchups in the sample. He had problems in his most recent playoff loss to the Chiefs — a one-touchdown, two-interception performance with a 70.2 rating — in late January 2023. Yet Burrow’s clearly having his most dynamic season in the NFL. One would expect the Chiefs offense to have its way with the Bengals shoddy defense in a playoff matchup, yet the familiarity between these clubs, plus the looming, big-play capabilities of Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Higgins and a surging run game, make the long-shot playoff Bengals worth including in these rankings. 4. Detroit LionsThe Lions went into Arrowhead Stadium and stunned the Chiefs to begin the 2023 season, and that’s before we realized Jared Goff was an exquisite fit in Ben Johnson’s offense with the Lions. Starting with that win, Detroit has gone 27-9 with 19 games in which it has scored 30 or more points. And it can score in a variety of ways, which is vital when facing a Steve Spagnuolo defense that often limits your most effective method of moving the football. The Lions are third in rush EPA per play in non-garbage time scenarios entering Week 17 and sixth in dropback EPA per play. Their injury-ravaged defense is probably not incredibly equipped to limit Mahomes and Co. in the playoffs, but the Lions are seemingly at peace with playing in high-scoring affairs, and if they make the Super Bowl, they’ll likely be healthier defensively than they are now — linebacker Alex Anzalone should be back on the field, and Aidan Hutchinson has even mentioned the Super Bowl is the goal for his return. Despite the recent downturn in the Lions’ defensive reputation, this is still a unit fifth in EPA per play allowed outside of garbage time and ninth in the NFL with 22 interceptions. And this is one offense that, conceivably, could go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in the playoffs, if necessary. 3. Philadelphia EaglesThe last team to score more than 30 points on Steve Spagnuolo’s defense was the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII nearly two years ago, an astonishing fact in today’s parity-filled, usually high-scoring NFL. And now the Eagles have an MVP candidate at running back in Saquon Barkley, a freaky specimen capable of taking over a game if Jalen Hurts isn’t dicing secondaries through the air. Take Week 16 for example, despite the Eagles’ last-second loss to the Commanders. Hurts suffers a concussion after a mere four pass attempts, and Barkley goes for 150 yards on 29 carries with two touchdowns. He’s averaging 3.35 yards after contact, the 13th-best figure in football. That’s so impressive, especially considering Barkley leads the league with 314 rushes. And remember, in last year’s Super Bowl the Chiefs won in overtime, Christian McCaffrey’s heroics were essential to the 49ers’ success on the ground and in the short passing game. While I’d advise against believing you’re going to run it efficiently against the Chiefs run-defense unit that currently ranks sixth in EPA per play allowed on the ground, possessing a superstar running back undoubtedly helps accumulate yardage beyond what is blocked. And the Eagles passing offense, headed by A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, could test Kansas City’s cornerback depth after Trent McDuffie. Just as importantly, Philadelphia’s defense has been completely revamped since that Super Bowl in early 2023. Through their Week 16 game, the Eagles have allowed 37 plays of 20-plus yards, the second-lowest figure in football. In that 2022 campaign, during the regular season, Philadelphia surrendered 75 plays of 20-plus yards, the most in the NFL. And the Eagles have one of the deepest and most ferocious defensive fronts in football, with five defenders already registering 20 pressures on the season. 2. Buffalo Bills The Bills are a default add because… they’ve beaten the Chiefs in four-consecutive regular seasons, of course something that no other team in the NFL has done. They did it in Arrowhead three-straight times, then became the first team since the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII in February 2023 to score 30 points on Kansas City’s defense in their 30-21 win in mid-November this year. These two teams have played each other eight times since the start of the 2020 season — they have intimate knowledge of each other’s intricacies. And six of those eight matchups have been one-score contests. In the playoffs, where margins are narrowed, the outcomes often are decided by the play of the quarterback, and one of the very select few quarterbacks who can match Mahomes play-for-play is Josh Allen. Beyond him, this is quite easily the most potent ground game the Bills have boasted in the Allen era. It’s currently second only to Detroit in rush EPA per play outside of garbage time, and James Cook has 14 touchdowns, 12 of which have come from beyond the one-yard line. With Mahomes, he’s morphed into a completely different quarterback against Buffalo in the playoffs compared to the regular season. That has to be considered. But I’d suspect the Chiefs would even admit the Bills are one of the scariest teams for them to face in the postseason, given the recent history between the team and Buffalo’s quarterback. 1. Minnesota VikingsMahomes has an 86.6 rating when blitzed this season, which ranks 35th out of 50 qualifying quarterbacks through Sunday’s action in Week 16. Beyond that, Mahomes’ pressure-to-sack percentage is noticeably higher this season than any of his others in the NFL. He’ll enter the Christmas Day game against the Steelers with a 17.6% pressure-to-sack rate. It was 10.6% during the 2023 regular season and never higher than 13.4% in any other campaign before this one. The Vikings are the most blitz-happy club in football and have held that distinction for two years now. They blitz the opposition on 40.8% of pass plays — the highest figure in the league — after leading the NFL in blitz rate at a seismic 51.8% a season ago. And it’s not just that Minnesota blitzes more than any team. On defensive plays with a blitz, Brian Flores’ unit has allowed a -49.19 total EPA through Week 17, the lowest total EPA in football. Offensively, the Vikings bring it with a wide array of options, headlined by superstar Justin Jefferson. Then there’s Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. And even if the Chiefs could get after Sam Darnold, he’s played out of his mind even when pressured — with 12 touchdowns to four interceptions and 1,039 yards at a league-high 8.1 yards per attempt in that scenario entering Week 17. Given their unadulterated aggression, Mahomes’ inability to elude rushers at his typical rate, and the surprisingly effective play from Darnold and his collection of plus skill-position players, the Vikings receive the top spot. No mention as to why the Ravens were not a 6th team. |
| BAD FREE AGENT SIGNINGSAccording to Joel Corry of CBSSports.com these are the free agent signings that have not worked out: With two weeks left in the 2024 NFL regular season, it’s clear whether new veteran acquisitions, either by trade or signed as free agents, have paid dividends. Not all high-priced moves or players acquired for significant draft capital pan out. Several veteran newcomers who aren’t living up to expectations have been identified. Contribution, availability, salary and draft capital to acquire were taken into account when making the selections. Kirk CousinsATL • QB • #18The Falcons signed Cousins to four-year, $180 million contract averaging $45 million per year with $100 million in guarantees where $90 million was fully guaranteed at signing in March. The expectation was Cousins would lead the Falcons to the playoffs for the first time since 2017. Because the Cousins signing suggested the Falcons were in win-now mode, it was a surprise that the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft was used to take quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The Falcons appeared to be in control of the NFC South with a 6-3 record and essentially a three-game lead over the 4-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers nine weeks into the season because of a sweep of two games played between them. Things changed with a horrible five-game stretch by Cousins in which the Falcons only won one game to drop behind the Buccaneers with a 7-7 record. Cousins was benched for Penix after completing 62.7% of his passes (99 of 158 pass attempts) for 1,180 yards with only one touchdown and nine interceptions to post a 63.8 passer rating in those five games. He has thrown a league-leading 16 interceptions this season. The Falcons are back on top of the NFC South after Penix won his first start against the New York Giants and the Buccaneers were upset by the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16. Conventional wisdom suggests that the Falcons are going to release Cousins with a post-June 1 designation before his injury guaranteed $10 million fifth day of the 2026 league year roster bonus becomes fully guaranteed this upcoming March 16 on the fifth day of the 2025 league year. Cousins’ contract contains a no-trade clause that he may not be willing to waive because the Falcons weren’t forthcoming about potentially selecting a quarterback in the first round. His recent play has likely diminished his trade value anyway. The Falcons will be on the hook for the $27.5 million Cousins is making in 2025 if he is released because this money is already fully guaranteed. There will be $65 million of dead money, a salary cap charge for a player no longer on a team’s roster, consisting of the $37.5 million in signing bonus proration from Cousins’ 2025 through 2027 contract years and his fully guaranteed $27.5 million 2025 base salary. The $65 million would be taken over two years with use of a post-June 1 designation where the Falcons would have a $40 million cap charge relating to Cousins in 2025 and a $25 million cap hit in 2026. The Falcons will have paid Cousins $90 million for just one season by releasing him in March. Haason ReddickNYJ • OLB • #7The Jets acquired Reddick from the Philadelphia Eagles for a conditional 2026 third-round pick although his dissatisfaction with the three-year, $45 million contract (worth up to $46.5 million through incentives and salary escalators) he received from the Philadelphia Eagles during 2022 free agency was well known. Nobody could have anticipated Reddick’s holdout lasting 90 days. It finally ended seven weeks into the season when the Jets added $5,341,628 of performance bonuses into his contract. Reddick, who is coming off four straight seasons with double-digit sacks, has one-half sack in the eight games he has played since ending his holdout. L’Jarius SneedTEN • CB • #38The Kansas City Chiefs placed a $19.802 million franchise tag on Sneed in March with the intention of trading him. Sneed was dealt to the Tennessee Titans at the end of March for a 2025 third-round pick with the teams also swapping 2024 seventh-round picks. The Titans gave Sneed a four-year, $76.4 million contract averaging $19.1 million per year with $55 million in guarantees. Out of the $55 million, $44 million was fully guaranteed at signing. Sneed didn’t resemble the shutdown cornerback he was in 2023 during the five games he played before going on injured reserve with a quadriceps injury. Matt JudonATL • OLB • #15Judon’s perpetual unhappiness with the four-year, $54 million contract (worth up to $56 million through incentives) he signed in 2021 free agency led to the New England Patriots trading him to the Falcons for a 2025 third-round pick during the preseason. The four-time Pro Bowler didn’t insist on a new deal from Falcons because they didn’t have any type of track record with him. Judon hasn’t improved a weak pass rush like the Falcons expected. Atlanta is last in the NFL with 26 sacks. Judon’s 4.5 sacks are one-half sack more than he had in 2023 when he only played four games because of a torn right biceps. Arik ArmsteadJAC • DE • #91Armstead quickly found a home in Jacksonville after he refused to take a pay cut to remain with the San Francisco 49ers. The Jaguars signed Armstead to a three-year, $43.5 million contract worth up to $51 million with incentives. The deal has $28 million fully guaranteed. Jacksonville’s usage of Armstead has been curious. He has spent more time in an edge rusher rotation playing behind Josh Hines-Allen and 2022’s first overall pick Travon Walker than on the interior of Jacksonville’s defensive line. Armstead’s production has suffered in the process. He had 42 quarterback pressures (combined sacks, quarterback hits and quarterback hurries), according Pro Football Focus, and five sacks in 12 games primarily as a defensive tackle in 2023. It’s 25 pressures and two sacks in 15 games this season. Gabe DavisJAC • WRThe Jaguars signed Davis to a three-year, $39 million contract worth up to $50.75 million through base salary escalators and incentives where $24 million was fully guaranteed. Davis was brought in to help offset the loss of wide receiver Calvin Ridley to the Titans in free agency. He only had 20 catches for 239 yards and two touchdowns in 10 games before undergoing season ending surgery for a torn meniscus in his left knee. Jonah JacksonLAR • G • #72The Rams signed Jackson to a three-year, $51 million deal with $34 million in guarantees, of which $25 million was fully guaranteed at signing. The original plan was for Jackson to play left guard with Steve Avila at center. Shortly before the start of the regular season, the two switched positions. A shoulder injury in the second week of the season kept Jackson out of the next six games until he returned in Week 10 versus the Miami Dolphins. Johnson has been relegated to the bench in favor of 2024 sixth-round pick Beaux Limmer since struggling against the Dolphins. Bryce HuffPHI • DEThe Eagles signed Huff to a three-year, $51.1 million deal worth a maximum of $57.1 million, thanks to incentives and salary escalators rather than address disgruntled Haason Reddick’s contract. The Huff contract has $34 million fully guaranteed. Huff was largely invisible before having surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left wrist 10 games into the season. In those 10 games, he had 2.5 sacks and 14 quarterback pressures according to PFF. Huff is close to returning from the wrist injury. At $17,033,333 per year, the Eagles are hoping that the Huff who had 10 sacks and 67 quarterback pressures last season will start showing up. Marcus DavenportDET • DE • #92Davenport was a buyer beware signing because injuries have defined his previous six NFL seasons. The 2018 first-round pick received a one-year, $6.5 million contract worth a maximum of $10.5 million through incentives from the Lions. The hope was Davenport would provide a consistent pass-rushing presence playing opposite of Aidan Hutchinson. Davenport was lost two games into the season with a torn left triceps. Jerome BakerSEA (now TEN) • OLB • #17 Tyrel DodsonSEA (now MIA) • LB • #11Baker and Dodson, a pair of Seahawks inside linebackers, were brought in on one-year contracts to replace Jordyn Brooks and future Hall of Famer Bobby Wagner, who left in free agency. Dodson’s deal was for $4.26 million with an additional $1.25 million in incentives. Baker’s contract was for $7 million. The Seahawks tried to keep Brooks before he signed with the Dolphins in free agency. No such effort was made with Wagner, who joined the Washington Commanders. The duo clearly wasn’t the answer at inside linebacker. Dodson was released 10 weeks into the season. The Dolphins claimed him through waivers. Baker and a 2025 fourth-round pick were dealt to the Titans for inside linebacker Ernest Jones during the latter part of October seven games into the season. |
