w-l               conf         17        18

Baltimore        North    12-3              7-3          MIA      PIT

Miami              East     11-4              7-3          bal       BUF

Kansas City    West       9-6             7-3          CIN      lac

Jacksonville    South     8-7              6-5         CAR     ten                                                                    

Cleveland        WC1     10-5             7-3          NYJ     cin

Buffalo             WC2      9-6             5-5           NE      mia

Indianapolis     WC3      8-7             6-5             lv      HOU

Houston                         8-7             5-5          TEN    ind

Pittsburgh                      8-7             6-5          sea      balt

Cincinnati                      8-7             3-7           kc       CLV

Las Vegas                     7-8             5-5           ind      DEN

Denver                          7-8             4-6           LAC     lv

Baltimore wins the top seed with a win Sunday over Miami.  And if the Ravens win, Week 18 between the Bills and Dolphins is a showdown for the AFC East if Buffalo gets by New England.

If Miami wins Sunday, it clinches the East, but needs a win over the Bills to take the bye.

Cleveland clinches a playoff spot with a win over the Jets.

The three AFC South leaders all lost Sunday.  Houston or Indianapolis will get at least one more win, so at least 9-8 will win that division.

What about the Raiders????  If they get to 9-8 what else needs to happen?  PlayoffStatus.com says the Raiders are 13% to make the playoffs – 3% as division champs, 9% as a Wild Card.  But if they win the last two games which would enable them to certainly move ahead of Indianapolis and Denver, their chances jump to 65% that they would get the other results they need.

If The Season Ended Today In The NFC:

W-L                Conf            17           18

San Francisco*  West     11-4                 9-1           was          LAR

Philadelphia       East      11-4                7-3            ARZ         nyg

Detroit               North     11-4                7-3            dal           MIN

Tampa Bay       South       8-7                6-4            NO           car

Dallas                WC1      10-5                7-3           DET         was

LA Rams           WC2        8-7                5-4            nyg            sf

Seattle               WC3       8-7                6-5             PIT           arz

Minnesota                         7-8                6-3            GB           det

Atlanta                              7-8                4-6             chi            no

Green Bay                        7-8                5-5             min        CHI

New Orleans                    7-8                 4-6            tb             ATL

The late win by the Dolphins, puts the Eagles back in charge of the NFC East as they are two winnable games away from the title.

The Week 18 game between the surging Rams and the Niners looms large as SF is likely to need a win for a Wild Card spot.

Fans of chaos are rooting for Pittsburgh over Seattle and/or Giants over Rams this weekend.  A New Orleans win over the Buccaneers would further the Week 18 madness.

The Rams have a sweep of the Seahawks.  The Packers have a win over the Rams.  The Falcons have a win over the Packers. The Vikings have a win over the Falcons and the Saints.  The Buccaneers have a win over the Vikings. The Buccaneers won the first game with the Saints. As did the Falcons.  Other than the Rams, the Seahawks haven’t played any of the other Wild Card contenders.

If the Rams get the 5 seed, MATTHEW STAFFORD could be heading back to Detroit for a playoff meeting with ex-Ram JARED GOFF.  Michael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com sees another amazing first round game on the horizon:

A couple of veteran quarterbacks may face their longtime teams in this season’s playoffs.

If the playoffs started today, the Lions would have the No. 3 seed and the Rams would have the No. 6 seed in the NFC. That would mean Rams quarterback Mathew Stafford would return to Detroit, where he played for 12 seasons — but never played in a home playoff game.

In the AFC, the Ravens would have the No. 1 seed and the Browns would have the No. 5 seed. That could set up Browns quarterback Joe Flacco to win in the wild card round and then travel to Baltimore in the divisional round. Flacco played for the Ravens for 11 seasons and won at least one playoff game after six of those seasons, including winning the Super Bowl after the 2012 season.

Every playoff game is a huge game for the fans of the two teams, but Stafford in Detroit and Flacco in Baltimore would be particularly compelling matchups, two of the biggest games we could see in the postseason.

They wouldn’t put either one of these on Peacock would they?

– – –

Meanwhile, at the bottom of the standings (the top of the 2024 draft), the Patriots, Jets and Bears had wins.  The current standings from Tankathon.com:

PICK   TEAM  RECORD        W-L          SOS           STREAK

1          Carolina CHI             2-13          .522            Lost 1

2           Arizona                      3-12          .561            Lost 2

3          Washington               4-11          .518            Lost 6

4           New England            4-11           .522            Won 1

5           NY Giants                 5-10           .514            Lost 2

6           LA Chargers             5-10          .525             Lost 3

7           Tennessee                5-10          .525            Lost 2

8            Chicago                    6-9            .467            Won 1

9            NY Jets                     6-9           .514            Won 1

CHICAGO

A statement and conclusion from Jeremy Layton:

@JeremyLayt0n

if the Bears traded the first overall pick (Caleb Williams/Drake Maye), they’d get three first-round picks at bare minimum, and likely additional high picks and players

if the Bears traded Justin Fields, they’d maybe get a second-rounder and a bit more

you may not agree with it, but it’s an objective fact that Williams/Maye hold significantly more value around the league than Fields, who hasn’t proven he can consistently play at a high level in the NFL through three seasons and needs to get paid soon

that’s why Ryan Poles will be picking a quarterback with the No. 1 pick this April

Not sure we agree with the conclusion.

Isn’t it possible you would rather have three first round picks and a decent QB?  Than just an unproven rookie QB?

Fields, the 10^th overall pick from the Falcons plus ATL’s first in 2025, plus their 2^nd in 2023, plus a couple of good players…

DETROIT

The Lions have quite a few players still around from 3-13-1 in 2021 – and now they are NFC North division champs.  QB JARED GOFF got emotional thinking about it.  This from The Heavy:

The last time the Detroit Lions won a division title, quarterback Jared Goff wasn’t even born. But the 29-year-old quarterback helped the Lions end their division title drought with a 30-24 victory against the Minnesota Vikings on December 24.

Such an achievement calls for a celebration. However, Goff made it clear in an interview with NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero immediately after the victory that winning the NFC North is just the first step for this year’s Lions.

“It’s pretty exciting, man. It really is. It’s been a lot of hard work, a long time coming,” Goff told Pelissero.

“It’s emotional, but it’s just the beginning for us. It’s the first checkmark for us.”

With their victory over the Vikings, the Lions improved to 11-4. The win clinched Detroit’s first ever NFC North title.

The last time the Lions won their division, 1993, it was the NFC Central.

Ending a 30-year division title drought is incredible by itself. But the story becomes even more improbable considering where the Lions were two years ago.

During Goff’s first season with the Lions in 2021, which was also head coach Dan Campbell’s first year in Detroit, the Lions went 3-13-1. Things didn’t appear to be getting much better for the franchise when they began last season 1-6.

But since then, the Lions have posted an 18-6 record.

“I get emotional thinking about all the guys who went through 3-13 … went through 1-6 early last year and now can stand here,” Goff told Pelissero. “NFC North champs.”

The Lions came into Week 16 ranked in the top 5 in points scored and yards. Goff and the offense had another strong performance against Minnesota, but the defense stopped the Vikings in the final two minutes to seal the victory.

If the Lions win one of their final two games, they will reach 12 wins in a season for the first time since 1991. The Lions have never won 13 games, which they could do with victories in both Weeks 17 and 18.

Two wins to end the season will keep the Lions in the hunt for the top seed in the NFC playoffs as well.

So that’s 4-19-1, then 18-6.  Crazy.

MINNESOTA

Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com strikes us as unduly pessimistic here:

Is this it for the 2023 Vikings? Almost certainly. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Sunday’s loss brought the Vikings’ chances of making the playoffs down to 25%. They certainly have a built-in excuse, having lost their two most important players — quarterback Kirk Cousins and receiver Justin Jefferson — to injuries for large portions of the season. But they’ll almost certainly rue the nature of some of their losses, almost all of which were by one score. Many of them were aided by turnovers; they entered the week ranked third in the NFL with 29. In the end, the Vikings will wind up about where everyone figured they would be — out of the playoffs — but they missed the opportunity for a special season.

Not that they would be more than 1-and-done, but if the Vikings beat Green Bay (doable) and a Lions team that could be a bit disinterested if they are locked into number 3 after losing to Dallas – they get to 9-8.  Then, and it’s a bit of an if – they need 1 loss from either Seattle or the Rams.  Voila!

NEW YORK GIANTS

QB TOMMY DeVITO took a seat for QB TYROD TAYLOR during Sunday’s fighting loss to the Eagles.  He could still start Sunday against the Rams.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Giants made a quarterback change to start the second half of Monday’s game against the Eagles.

Tyrod Taylor replaced Tommy DeVito with the Giants down 20-3 and he went 7-of-16 for 133 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. The touchdown was a 69-yarder to Darius Slayton in the fourth quarter that pulled the Giants within five points and the interception came on the final play of the day as Taylor tried in vain to tie the game before the end of regulation.

After the 33-25 loss was complete, Giants head coach Brian Daboll explained why he made the move to Taylor. He said “we weren’t scoring any points” with DeVito and wanted to try a different approach.

“Just tried to spark the team,” Daboll said in his press conference. “I don’t really have anything else to add to that. I just did it to try to spark the team.”

Daboll said “we’ll talk about that here this week” when asked about his plans for Week 17’s home game against the Rams.

CAROLINA

QB BRYCE YOUNG was actually really good Sunday against the Packers in a turnover-free, comeback-leading performance.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

With no shot at the playoffs and no first-round pick to look forward to in April, the best the Panthers can hope for is signs that Bryce Young is improving as a quarterback in the final weeks of a disappointing season.

Young showed some of those signs against the Packers on Sunday. Young posted a season-high 312 passing yards while leading a pair of fourth quarter touchdown drives that allowed the Panthers to tie the Packers 30-30. Green Bay ultimately won with a field goal in the final minute of play, but the performance came on the heels of his game-winning drive against the Falcons in Week 15 and it was celebrated by others on the team after the game.

Interim head coach Chris Tabor said Young was in “complete control” and wideout Adam Thielen said it was a stepping stone toward even better days.

“Man, impressive,” Thielen said, via the team’s website. “Really the stuff that I saw and a lot of us saw in OTAs, training camp. Just that confidence, that kind of attitude. And then, you collectively make some plays for him, and watch out, he’s got the hot hand, as we say. So, obviously super impressive and excited to build on that.”

Thielen’s fellow wideout DJ Chark was also impressed and said “three, four or five years from now, he’s gonna be definitely at the top, if not one of the top QBs” in the league. It remains to be seen if Chark’s prediction is on the money, but any game that leaves that impression is a welcome development after plenty of rough sledding for the rookie.

SAN FRANCISCO

A sudden clunker for QB BROCK PURDY.  Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com:

Through his first 23 NFL starts, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has had his share of bumps in the road, most notably the torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow suffered during last season’s NFC Championship Game.

But Purdy had never had the type of on-field struggles that he experienced Monday night against the Baltimore Ravens. Purdy threw a career-high four interceptions, including three in the first half, and the Niners finished minus-5 in turnover margin on the way to a 33-19 loss that dropped them to 11-4 on the season.

“He’s played this long, he never had a game like this,” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said. “It’s pretty unusual. That’s the reality of the NFL. I’m not saying it’s bound to happen but wish he didn’t have as many picks today.”

Purdy finished 18-of-32 for 255 yards with no touchdowns for a passer rating of 42.6, the worst of any start in his career. His night ended early when he departed in the fourth quarter after sustaining a left shoulder stinger.

By the time Purdy reached his postgame news conference, he already was pondering how things went awry against the Ravens and how he’d bounce back from such a rough outing for an away date with the Washington Commanders on Sunday.

“It’s the NFL,” Purdy said. “We have some opportunities coming up, and we still got two games left in the regular season before we get into playoffs. For me, [I’m] trying to look at the big picture of what we’re trying to do, what our team goals are. But at the same time, I have to look myself in the mirror and ask myself why or how that happened and why I made those decisions?

“Our team came ready to play, and for me to make some decisions like that … it’s not fair to these guys. I have to realize that and understand that, and I have to get better for my team.”

Purdy started well enough, as his third pass of the night was a strike to tight end George Kittle for a 58-yard gain to Baltimore’s 28-yard line. He followed with another completion to Kittle for 13 yards. It was mostly downhill from there.

On first-and-10 at Baltimore’s 15-yard line, Purdy forced a pass to wideout Deebo Samuel that Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton stepped in front of for an interception.

Purdy said he thought Samuel had flashed open but that he should have continued through his progression and checked the ball down instead.

“I thought the first one was the big mistake,” Shanahan said. “And the other three were pretty unfortunate for him.”

Each of Purdy’s subsequent interceptions came with some sort of hit or deflection from the Ravens’ defense.

The second pick was deflected into the waiting arms of cornerback Marlon Humphrey.

The third came when Purdy attempted to make something happen on a throw for Kittle during a scramble drill after running back Christian McCaffrey had been flagged for a chop block. Purdy said he was aware of the flags and had a feeling the penalty was on the offense, terming the decision to try the throw across his body “very dumb” because he made a bad situation worse.

That made Purdy the first NFL player to throw three interceptions in the first half of a game this season and the first 49er to do so since Nick Mullens in 2018. Purdy’s four-interception outing was the first by a Niners quarterback since Colin Kaepernick did it in 2015.

With 8:19 to play in the fourth, Purdy took a sack from Ravens pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney. Purdy briefly departed last week’s win at the Arizona Cardinals with a shoulder stinger and endured a similar pain when Clowney took him down. The signal-caller jogged off the field and quickly headed to the blue medical tent as Sam Darnold replaced him.

Purdy potentially could have returned to the game, but Shanahan opted to keep him out in large part because the Niners’ offensive line was down three players, including starting left tackle Trent Williams (groin) and left guard Aaron Banks (toe).

“I know he’s disappointed not being able to finish it there, but getting that stinger again, I just wanted to keep him out of there,” Shanahan said of Purdy.

Williams was injured while attempting to tackle linebacker Patrick Queen after Purdy’s fourth interception. Despite his best efforts, Williams did not return. He is scheduled for an MRI on Tuesday. Williams declined to speak at length after the game but told reporters in the locker room, “I’m good. I’ll be all right.”

Purdy’s career-low 42.6 passer rating followed a six-game span in which he had a 138.1 rating — the highest in NFL history over a six-game stretch, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Now, Purdy will have a short week to prepare for the Commanders.

One silver lining the Niners were quick to point out after Monday’s loss is that they still control their NFC playoff positioning. Wins against Washington and the visiting Los Angeles Rams on Jan. 7 or one victory and some help would give the 49ers the NFC’s No. 1 seed, home-field advantage and a bye during the first weekend of the postseason.

But first, San Francisco will get a look at how Purdy rebounds following the worst outing of his two campaigns.

“I got to ask myself, ‘All right, who are you?'” Purdy said. “‘What do you stand for? Who are you when things are good? Who are you when things don’t go your way?’ It’s easy to be riding high and thinking you’re the man when things are going well, winning games and all that kind of stuff. And you don’t really see a whole lot of adversity in some games and whatnot, and this is the reality of the NFL.

“I obviously have to look myself in the mirror, watch the plays ready to get better, make some cleaner decisions, help my team put up points and score and protect the ball. And when things don’t go my way, it’s understanding I can’t be acting out. I have to be real with myself and be better, but I want to be the same guy every day. I want to be consistent in what I do and how I do things; whether things are going well or not, I know who I am, and I’m not going to waver from that.”

KANSAS CITY

QB PATRICK MAHOMES says he still believes the now-reeling Chiefs can defend their Super Bowl title.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Monday’s 20-14 loss to the Raiders saw the Chiefs offense experience the same kind of struggles that have been the dominant theme of their season and the biggest reason to doubt that they can make it to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in the last five years.

The Raiders’ two touchdowns came on turnovers by the Chiefs offense and the Kansas City offense couldn’t generate any second half points until late in the fourth quarter, so there wouldn’t seem to be much about the outing to spark belief that everything is about to come together for the defending champs. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is not throwing in the towel, though.

Mahomes said “I still believe that we can go do what we want to do” after the game and he explained why he feels that way.

“You see glimpses of it,” Mahomes said, via Adam Teicher of ESPN.com. “You see glimpses of us moving the football, you see glimpses of us scoring in the red zone. It’s just we haven’t consistently done it enough game in and game out at this end of the season. We kind of had one good game, one bad game, one good game, one bad game, but we have to be more consistent because when you get to the playoffs you have to string some together.”

Glimpses won’t get the job done and it’s been a long time since the Chiefs have shown the kind of sustained success necessary to win in the postseason. Their track record means they can’t be totally written off, but confidence is going to remain in short supply until that changes.

This from Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com:

Travis Kelce threw his helmet in a tantrum. Andy Reid scolded his star tight end on the sideline. Instead of countless shots of Taylor Swift from CBS, we got continuous reactions from Patrick Mahomes looking frustrated and angry.

The Chiefs were expected to roll the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas. We saw something entirely different. The Chiefs looked painfully average in a stunning 20-14 loss. You can lose to the Bills, Eagles or even the Packers or Broncos on the road. But the Raiders? At home? And when you thought Mahomes would just reach in his magic bag and bring the Chiefs back, he couldn’t.

This is the most vulnerable the Chiefs have been in the Mahomes era. They’ve lost three of four and are 3-5 since a 6-1 start. There were plenty of social media obituaries for the 2023 Chiefs written as people assembled their kids’ Christmas gifts. The Chiefs were dead, buried, then exhumed just to be buried another time.

Let’s be careful about crossing off the Chiefs this season.

It appears bleak now, and everyone can see the issues. There’s no continuity or explosiveness in the offense. They got just 14 points against an average at best Raiders defense. When Mahomes needed to bring the Chiefs back, he couldn’t. That’s because his receivers aren’t very good, aside from perhaps Rashee Rice. And Rice is a rookie.

Even Kelce is looking less dominant at age 34. He has gone eight games without reaching 100 yards, and five straight games without a touchdown. Mahomes has done more yelling this season than in the rest of his NFL seasons combined, and it’s not hard to figure out why. The Chiefs have six losses. The last time they lost that many games was 2017, with Alex Smith starting at quarterback ahead of first-round rookie Mahomes. It’s simply not a great Chiefs team.

And all of that said, they still have Reid and Mahomes.

If you want to write off the Chiefs after that loss to the Raiders it’s fine, but keep in mind that they barely lost with the Raiders scoring two defensive touchdowns in seven seconds. The defense was good again. The offense wasn’t and maybe it never will look better than it has this season. But be honest: If you’re the fan of an AFC team, do you really want to see Mahomes coming to your city for a playoff game?

The Chiefs have serious issues but that’s true for nearly the entire league. If you’ve made it to Christmas and you still have the same offensive issues you did in September, they’re not getting fixed. But the Chiefs have a top-10 defense, which held the Raiders to 205 yards and zero offensive touchdowns on Monday. And no offense to John Harbaugh, Kyle Shanahan or anyone else, but the Chiefs will have arguably the best head coach in the playoff field. Also no offense to Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or anyone else, but the Chiefs will have arguably the best quarterback in the playoff field (that might not even be arguable; you should still take Mahomes over any other QB). That combo gives anyone a shot at a deep playoff run no matter the record.

It’s not like the Chiefs haven’t had adversity in the Mahomes era. It, however, has rarely lasted this long. The Chiefs are who they are, a flawed team that needs its quarterback to be Superman more than ever. And still, if you want to assume the Chiefs have no shot at a deep playoff run, do so at your own risk.

LAS VEGAS

Antonio Pierce is on the cusp of capturing the “permanent” Raiders coaching job says Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com:

Has Antonio Pierce earned the full-time coaching job?

Almost. There’s no question the Raiders have played better under Pierce since he replaced Josh McDaniels on Halloween, going 4-3. But there is still the taste of a 3-0 home loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Raider Nation’s mouth. There are still two winnable games to go — at the Indianapolis Colts and at home against the Denver Broncos — for Pierce to fully lay his claim, and as he said with tears in his eyes after his win over the Chiefs, things will take care of themselves in due time.

An endorsement from Mike Florio:

Two years ago, Raiders interim coach Rich Bisaccia to the playoffs, navigating a sea of distractions punctuated by the Jon Gruden fiasco and the Henry Ruggs DUI that killed a young woman and her dog. The Raiders nearly beat the Bengals in the wild-card round. It wasn’t enough to get Bisaccia to get a chance to be the full-time coach for 2022.

Now, Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce is getting it done. The team put 63 points on the board against the Chargers. They beat the Chiefs in their own building on Christmas Day, without Josh Jacobs and with literally no passing game after the first quarter.

Why not give Pierce a chance, for a year or two? He’s done a great job after being thrown into the position on the fly. Give him a full year to come up with a plan and to execute it. Give him another year to build some continuity.

It wasn’t smart to not give Bisaccia a chance, given what happened with Josh McDaniels. Why would owner Mark Davis want to risk going two for two when it comes to having the right guy as the interim coach and getting rid of him? It would put even more pressure on the next coach to deliver.

Pierce could still take the Raiders to the playoffs. If the Chiefs lose to the Bengals and Chargers and if the Raiders beat the Colts and the Broncos, the Raiders will win the division.

The fact that the Raiders even have a chance to pull it off entering Week 17 is reason enough to keep Pierce around for a year, or two. The Raiders could do a lot worse. For most seasons since 2002, they have.

BALTIMORE

Albert Breer on the Ravens going into San Francisco and posting a convincing victory:

The Ravens know you didn’t expect Monday. But after the way they dished out similar beatdowns to the Lions and Seahawks earlier in the year, they don’t seem to think anyone should be surprised by what transpired Christmas night in Santa Clara either.

You saw what I did—Baltimore totally choking out the presumed best roster in football.

The final was Baltimore Ravens 33, San Francisco 49ers 19, and this one didn’t even seem that close. Lamar Jackson played like the MVP candidate he clearly is. The defense picked off Brock Purdy four times, then scored a fifth off Sam Darnold for good measure. Eight different guys caught passes, and the run game got the yards it needed.

And if you watched the ABC broadcast, you might’ve caught how it sounded a lot like it’d been relayed to Joe Buck and Troy Aikman just how overlooked and disrespected Baltimore felt coming in, like they weren’t capable of a game like the one they wound up playing. So afterward, I caught up with Patrick Queen, who had one of those picks, and seven tackles to go with it, to ask him about that.

“Yeah, they tried to write us off,” Queen told me. “We all felt a certain way about that. You don’t want to give us a chance to play the game. You try to write us off. I think everybody hates the Ravens. We don’t know why. We just go out there and play football. We don’t play the football that everybody wants to see, though.”

At this rate, America’s not going to have any choice.

With the win Monday, the Ravens are 12–3, and a home win Sunday against Miami away from clinching the top seed, a bye and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. So we’re all, in all likelihood, going to get a steady diet of the bruising, old-school game Baltimore brings.

And all of that was on display in California on Monday night—and it started with a bet the Ravens’ players and coaches made during the week.

Quite simply, it was that the Niners, great in their own right, hadn’t quite seen a team like theirs.

“We definitely knew,” Queen says. “People don’t want to play the style of football we like to play. They are a physical team. They are that aggressive team. But I think our brand of football outmatches anybody. … We know they don’t believe that people can tackle them for four quarters. We’re the team to do that.”

The belief, from there, went that eventually if Baltimore kept swinging, with physicality and creativity, the dam would break, and the interceptions wound up manifesting that. Purdy’s second pick came when Brandon Stephens got free and tipped the ball in the air to Marlon Humphrey. The third came when Humphrey popped the ball loose from George Kittle and Kyle Hamilton was waiting for his second pick of the day. The fourth came when nose tackle Travis Jones collapsed the pocket, and hit Purdy, sending his throw wayward and into Queen’s arms.

“Those guys up front, when they eat, we’ll be able to make plays on the back end,” Queen says. “[Purdy is] a great quarterback. He made some miraculous throws these weeks leading up. We knew that there are plays out there that you can capitalize on. There are plays where he does mess up, but people just don’t capitalize on it. We knew we could take advantage of that.”

And all four of those were important—the first one stopped the Niners’ first drive deep in Baltimore territory, and the next three led directly to 17 points.

Meanwhile, Jackson was surgical, averaging 6.4 yards per carry, posting a 105.9 passer rating and staying in total control throughout. Back in early November, a panel of 38 NFL executives voting on my annual midseason awards made Jackson the overwhelming pick for MVP (he got more than half the votes) before many people were talking about him that way.

Now, everyone is. Including his teammates.

“He proved that tonight,” says Queen. “I think he proved that over and over again. He’s going to continue to do that. We’ve got all faith in him. That’s the MVP in our eyes. We’ve got two more games left in the season before the stretch in the playoffs. We just got to have his back.”

And really, that alludes to the best thing about these Ravens—that there’s enough there, as complete as the roster is now, for everyone to have everyone’s back. As is the case with the Niners, there may not be a discernible hole on the Baltimore roster.

Maybe it’s time for everyone to take notice of it.

“We just proved that we got a chance,” Queen says, slyly. “When you got chances in life, you got to take advantage of those.”

I’d say the Ravens look ready to.

This from Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com:

Why is the victory over the 49ers the Ravens’ biggest of the season?

This obviously gives Baltimore the title of best team in the NFL with two weeks remaining. The Ravens have won five straight and have the league’s best record at 12-3. The more significant part of this victory is that Baltimore can now clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed Sunday, when the Ravens host the Dolphins. The Ravens have been the top seed only once in their 27 years of existence. For a franchise that has one playoff victory in Lamar Jackson’s first five seasons, it would be huge to have home-field advantage in the postseason.

– – –

The conventional wisdom is that QB LAMAR JACKSON won the MVP on Christmas night.  Scott Kacsmar isn’t having it:

@ScottKacsmar

Kirk Cousins hasn’t played since Week 8.

Lamar only passed him in TD passes last night.

There are 17 QBs with at least 19 TD passes this season.

And this:

As for the excessive amount of MVP talk coming from this game for Purdy, Lamar, and CMC, I don’t feel like getting into it tonight. Let the last 2 weeks play out, but it just sounds absurd to think this one game should drastically change the odds on what is supposed to be a season-long performance award. Somehow, we have let it devolve into Super Bowl RINGZ logic where it should go to the player who goes undefeated in Weeks 15-18 no matter how they played. Screw that. The problem is this race has been a mess all year, so it’s no surprise things are finishing like this.

CLEVELAND

Is there any doubt that QB JOE FLACCO has been better for this Browns team than ailing QB DESHAUN WATSON?  Jake Trotter of ESPN.com:

Can the Browns keep airing it out like this?

With Joe Flacco’s big, accurate arm, absolutely. Flacco set the tone in Houston with a 53-yard completion to Amari Cooper on the opening drive, the most air yards (45) on a Browns completion this season. Flacco came back in the second quarter with a 75-yard scoring strike to Cooper off play-action and a 21-yard touchdown dime to tight end David Njoku through traffic. The Browns are suddenly a dynamic downfield passing team, with Cooper, Njoku and others making plays — and Flacco, 38, zinging the ball around like it’s 2012 all over again.

Remember, the Browns have beaten BOTH the Ravens and 49ers, the presumptive Super Bowl teams – without Flacco.  Scott Kacsmar:

I kind of joked earlier in the week about Flacco going into Canton if he gets a ring out of this season, but this is some really interesting stuff in Cleveland. You have a great defense that can win it all, you have a team that’s already beat the Ravens and 49ers, the current No. 1 seeds, and now you have a quarterback who already has led one of the most improbable Super Bowl runs in NFL history.

And let me repeat, they already beat the 49ers and Ravens with marginal quarterback play in those games earlier this season, so that silences the schedule argument for what they’ve done with Flacco the last month.

This could end horribly in the wild card round for all we know, but if the Browns keep playing like this, they are a team we have to take seriously. And wouldn’t that be a hell of a lot more fun and easier to do with this Flacco story than if this was Deshaun Watson thriving?

PITTSBURGH

Perhaps his performance against the Bengals was a surprise, but it’s no surprise that QB MASON RUDOLPH will get the call in Sunday’s critical game in Seattle. Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

The Pittsburgh Steelers plan to keep rolling with Mason Rudolph following the quarterback’s big win in Week 16.

Head coach Mike Tomlin said Tuesday that the Steelers remain in the same position as last week, with Rudolph in line to start Sunday against Seattle as Pittsburgh monitors Kenny Pickett’s (ankle) availability as the week progresses.

“We’re in the same position with Kenny as we were last week,” Tomlin said. “We’ll give him a few reps and kind of see where that leads us. But just as I said a week ago, in this setting, Mason Rudolph is scheduled to be the quarterback for the week. And we’ll see where Kenny is. We have the same mentality as we start this week.”

Rudolph shined in Saturday’s 34-11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals, throwing for 290 pass yards, two touchdowns, and no picks. It marked Rudolph’s first victory as a starter since Week 12, 2019, at Cincinnati (16-10).

While Tomlin didn’t rule out Pickett returning, Rudolph’s play makes the Steelers comfortable riding the veteran with their postseason life hanging in the balance.

“Obviously, we have a great deal more comfort because of what we’ve seen in-stadium from Mason Rudolph,” he said. “And that helps us. But we’re still, really, in the same posture. He’s got the ball to start the week, and we’ll see where Kenny is from a mobility perspective and then kind of go from there and plan day by day based on the things we see from that perspective.”

Rudolph was the first Pittsburgh QB to have 275-plus pass yards, two-plus passing TDs, and zero INTs in a game since Ben Roethlisberger in Week 16, 2020. He produced the highest passer rating (124.0) and most pass yards (290) by any Steelers QB in 2023 as Pittsburgh scored a season-high 34 points.

Pickett has missed the last three games after suffering an ankle injury in a Week 13 loss to Arizona. Mitchell Trubisky made the first two starts before Tomlin put the ball in Rudolph’s hands in Week 16.

The Steelers’ offense immediately got off to a better start with Rudolph under center, as the QB hit George Pickens in stride for an 86-yard catch-and-run TD on the opening drive. In the third quarter, Rudolph hit Pickens again on a deep shot for a 66-yard score.

The practice week will begin with Rudolph taking the first-team reps. After Pickett took individual work last week, the key will be whether the second-year quarterback handles any team snaps as we get closer to the weekend.

Tomlin declined to get into whether Pickett would be the starter if he’s medically cleared.

“I’m not into hypotheticals,” he said. “We’ll see what the performance looks like tomorrow. Mason Rudolph has the ball as we stand here today.”

At 8-7, the Steelers sit in the No. 9 spot in the AFC playoff race, with games in Seattle and Baltimore to close the campaign

JACKSONVILLE

Despite four straight losses and this brutal assessment, The Athletic’s model has the Jaguars at 66% to make the playoffs:

The Jags are reeling with four consecutive losses, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s injuries are mounting by the week. Their offensive issues over the past two weeks can be explained by injuries and Lawrence’s shortage of practice time, but the defense is also leaking by surrendering 29.5 points per game during the skid. Then again, the Bucs scored three touchdowns off turnovers, so it’s become a widespread meltdown.

This:

QB Trevor Lawrence suffered a sprained AC joint in his right shoulder and it is too soon to know if he’ll be able to play Sunday against the Panthers, per head coach Doug Pederson.

BUFFALO

Despite the Miami win, Dan Graziano on the Bills path to a division title and a home game:

The Bills are going to win the AFC East

Honestly, this could have gone either way. Had the Bills not come back to beat the Chargers on Saturday night, we probably would have found a way to bury them in this space. But come back and beat the Chargers they did, and now the Bills are 9-6 and still in the hunt for their fourth straight division title. They finish with a Week 18 game in Miami against the Dolphins — a team they beat 48-20 back in Week 4. And while Buffalo gets what appears to be a layup against the Patriots in Week 17, the Dolphins have a tough matchup against the Ravens in Baltimore.

If the Dolphins — who held on for a huge win Sunday against the Cowboys in Miami — lose to the Ravens, and the Bills beat the Patriots, the Week 18 matchup in Miami will determine the division champ.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Miami has something special going on this season and could make a deep playoff run — and I think there’s a good chance it holds on in the division. All of that said, the Bills have won the division three years in a row, and the Dolphins went into the tank at the end of the 2022 season before backing into the playoffs. Buffalo knows what it takes to win the big games during this time of year, and the Dolphins are still learning.

Sunday was a strong sign that they’re ready for this, but they still have to finish off the division race. The Dolphins are so much better at home than on the road that I have to think the Week 18 game still tilts in their favor, even though Buffalo won the first one. The Bills’ defense is still missing a lot of key players and is still suspect overall. Heck, they almost lost to the Giff Smith/Easton Stick Chargers! But if it’s a division title game in Week 18, then I don’t think it’s at all farfetched for the Bills to find a way.

MIAMI

A “tricky” ankle injury for WR JAYLEN WADDLE.  Karl Rasmussen of SI.com:

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle exited Sunday’s game against the Dallas Cowboys early after sustaining a leg injury during the third quarter. He did not return, although the Dolphins were able to edge out a crucial victory in his absence.

On Monday, coach Mike McDaniel provided an update on Waddle’s injury, indicating that the 25-year-old had suffered a high ankle sprain, per ESPN’s Marcel Louis-Jacques.

McDaniel admitted that high ankle injuries like the one Waddle sustained “can be tricky,” and added the wide receiver would receive further testing in order to determine the severity of the injury.

A high ankle sprain could force Waddle to miss some time, and with just two games remaining on the schedule, it’s possible that he could be sidelined for the rest of the regular season.

Miami clinched a playoff berth following Sunday’s win, but being without Waddle for the final stretch of the season could be a significant loss, especially with difficult matchups against the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills looming.

Waddle had just one catch prior to exiting the game on Sunday, though he still managed to rack up 50 receiving yards. In doing so, he eclipsed the 1,000 receiving yards mark for the third consecutive season.

– – –

Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com on PK JASON SANDERS’ big day:

Stock up after the win: K Jason Sanders. The Dolphins’ longtime kicker entered the game just 6-of-16 from 50 or more yards since 2021, but he nailed kicks of 57, 54 and 52 yards — as well as a 29-yarder to win the game with time expiring.

NEW ENGLAND

With the rival Bills coming to town this week, the Patriots have found their offense with QB BAILEY ZAPPE.  Tom Curran of NBC Sports New England:

On NBC Sunday night, George Bailey was realizing for the nine millionth time that, despite all the crap that can befall a man, it really is “A Wonderful Life.”

Meanwhile, over on NFL Network, another Bailey – Zappe – was finding out the same thing. For the first time. The staying power of Buzzcut Bailey’s redemption story won’t match George’s, but he did indeed lasso the moon on Christmas Eve.

It wasn’t just Zappe. It was elfin-looking Chad Ryland delivering from 56 yards near the end of regulation to get himself off the island of broken toys and put a different spin on what’s been a no-good, very-bad rookie season.

It was DeVante Parker catching four of the five balls sent his way for 65 yards on a night when the Patriots were without their best skill guys. After nearly two seasons to forget with the Patriots, Parker made it a night to remember.

And the Patriots defense, which has delivered all season with the dependability of Santa, did it again despite its own litany of injuries.

Understaffed, flying cross-country to play when they’d rather be home sipping nog and reflecting on a lost season and what comes next, the Patriots out-gutted a Broncos team with something to play for.

That’s not nothing. But what is it exactly? Is it a season-changer? No. A conversation-changer? Maybe. A mind-changer? Doubtful.

The Patriots needed to prove they were headed in the right direction this year. They spent 12 games sprinting directly away from the right direction and staggered to 2-10.

Baby-stepping back into view around New Year’s isn’t improvement. It’s being less bad. When you’re bringing home D’s and F’s, you might get a pat on the head for a C and a celebration for a B-minus. But that doesn’t mean you’re passing overall. 

I’m excluding young Bailey, though, who I’ve belittled and eye-rolled about since the summer when he STUNK! He doesn’t stink anymore and I’ve been served my STFU.

I’m sure he couldn’t care less about the case he makes to me. But what about the case made to the Patriots and the rest of the league?

What is he trying to prove? That he’s a starting-caliber player? That he can follow a Brock Purdy-Dak Prescott-Kirk Cousins track to becoming THE GUY and a Pro Bowl-level player in the right situation?

That he’s a solid No. 2 who you’d feel comfortable handing the reins to if a more physically-gifted (and highly drafted) quarterback is on the roster and either hurt or in need of seasoning? A Gardner Minshew-level guy?

He’d likely say his role will sort itself if he keeps producing. And it will.

But will he be satisfied with how it’s sorted when the Patriots make the inevitable move to add a projected new starter in the offseason, whether through draft of free agency?

How does Zappe view himself? Is he looking at the Patriots quarterback landscape and saying, “Bring me another first-rounder and I’ll beat him out too,” even though Zappe didn’t beat out Mac Jones as much as he merely outlasted him?

If he feels that way this week, you can’t blame him.

Considering the desperately low point Zappe was at by the end of camp (released) and even in October (behind Malik Cunningham for a week against Las Vegas), that he’s solidifying himself as a legitimate backup you’re not looking to upgrade from is a triumph.

The thing that’s stood out most to me from Zappe is his downfield accuracy. He throws it harder than Jones. He also keeps it on the planet when he throws to the sidelines rather than lobbing balloons.

Think about the throws he made against Denver. How many of the big plays were more thanks to the receiver than the throw? One? The leaping catch by Demario Douglas? And even that was shared credit. The throws to Parker, Jalen Reagor and Pharaoh Brown were on point.

The bottom line is the team is 4-2 when he starts.

You can definitely credit the defense for performances that bottled up the Lions and Browns and paved the way for easy wins last year, but Zappe was efficient with the leads.

He made three brilliant touchdown throws against the Steelers. Again, the Patriots defense was very good in that game, but he did have to do something with the opportunities he was served and he did.

And Sunday night, in the face of blitz-happy Denver, he weathered an embarrassing game-opening sequence, hitched up his pants, spit in his hands and got to work.

If you’re a Broncos fan this morning, you’re outraged that your team lost. You gave away seven points on a kickoff. You peed away incredible field position. You barely showed urgency until midway through the fourth quarter and you lost not just to a backup for a 3-11 team but a 3-11 team with expansion-level talent on the field. At home. At altitude. On Christmas Eve.

Will we look back at this night in a year or two and say that was the turning point? Heading to Denver, Zappe was an often-dismissed (I’ve been quite dismissive personally) novelty act who’d benefited mostly from being “not Mac,” staying out of the way and mixing in a few “that was actually a really good throw!” moments.

The Patriots face a fleet of questions and uncertainty in the next few weeks.

On Christmas morning, Zappe woke up as an answer. To which question? I don’t know if anyone really knows yet.