The Daily Briefing Tuesday, December 27, 2022

If The Season Ended Today in the AFC:

                                                   W-L     HTH  Div    Conf

yx-Buffalo                    East        12-3     1       1          8-2

yx-Kansas City            West       12-3     -1      1          7-3

x-Cincinnati                 North     11-4              1          7-3

Jacksonville                South        7-8              1          6-4

x-Baltimore                  WC1       10-5              2          6-4

x-LA Chargers             WC2         9-6              2          7-4

Miami                          WC3         8-7              2          6-4

New England                               7-8              3          5-5

NY Jets                                        7-8              4          5-6

Tennessee                                   7-8              2          5-6

Pittsburgh                                     7-8              3          3-7

Five slots are filled with Buffalo and Kansas City crowned as division champs.  While it once seemed that four AFC East teams could go to the playoffs, the most there will be is two.

The three teams not named Buffalo are all closing like they were coached by Kliff Kingsbury.

The Dolphins were 8-3 and have lost 4 straight.

The Patriots were 6-4, then have lost 4 of 5.

The Jets were 6-3 and have lost 5 of 6.

The three teams have at least two wins coming in the final two weeks.

The Dolphins can clinch a playoff berth with a win at New England.

And in Week 17, we have Jets at Dolphins.

– – –

The AFC-NFC season series comes to an end this week with 6 games (TENN-DAL, CLV-WASH, IND-NYG, NYJ-SEA, SF-LV, LAR-LAC).

And right now, it’s all tied up at 37-37.

NFC EAST

PHILADELPHIA

David Perdum of ESPN.com notes that some “smart money” players in Vegas bet on the Cowboys shortly before the injury to QB JALEN HURTS went public:

The betting market once again was ahead of the news last week, resulting in a two-hour flurry of well-informed wagering that left sportsbooks exposed on the biggest NFL game of the holiday weekend.

The point spread on the Week 16 Philadelphia Eagles-Dallas Cowboys game had been moving for two hours last Monday afternoon, before ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported at 4:20 p.m. ET that Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts was uncertain to play. In that two-hour span, the Cowboys moved from 1.5-point favorites to as high as 6-point favorites at some sportsbooks, before Schefter’s report.

“We saw a couple of bets [on the Cowboys] from people that we respected,” Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, said. “We didn’t see anything untoward, but we did see a couple of bets. Obviously, these are not stupid people; they’re smart players.”

Bettors didn’t just target the Eagles-Cowboys point spread based on the Hurts injury. The informed money also went after the odds to win the MVP. During that same two-hour stretch, Hurts went from a -145 odds-on favorite for MVP to as long as +425 at Caesars Sportsbook. At the same time, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes emerged as the favorite, attracting multiple five-figure bets and moving from +170 to as short as a -350 favorite to win MVP. According to Caesars Sportsbook analyst Max Meyer, the book took 23 bets of $1,000 or more on the MVP market from 2:20 p.m. to 4:17 p.m. ET Monday, 20 of which were on Mahomes. The largest MVP bet during that stretch, however, was $50,000 on Hurts at +160.

Meanwhile, the Eagles-Cowboys point spread continued to move up and down, before eventually closing at Dallas -4. The Cowboys would win by six, 40-34, a costly margin of victory for some sportsbooks.

“It wasn’t a good game for us,” Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, said, adding that whenever a heavily bet game like Eagles-Cowboys has significant line movement and the final margin of victory ends up the same as one of the point spreads offered, it’s rarely good for the sportsbook. “It can hurt us, giving Eagles bettors who had plus-6 their money back and paying out Dallas bettors on the spread as a win.”

“That was one of the bigger in-play losses as well, the biggest of the week.” Pullen said.

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

He has been playing well lately, but EDGE J.J. WATT is calling it a career.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

J.J. Watt is calling it a career.

Watt wrote on Twitter this morning that Sunday’s game in Arizona was the first game his son ever attended and will be the last home game of his career.

“Koa’s first ever NFL game. My last ever NFL home game,” Watt wrote. “My heart is filled with nothing but love and gratitude. It’s been an absolute honor and a pleasure.”

A three-time NFL defensive player of the year, Watt will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He was the Texans’ first-round draft pick in 2011, the Walter Payton Man of the Year in 2017, a five-time first-team All-Pro, and twice the league leader in sacks.

– – –

With the Chargers heading to the playoff and the case for firing coach Brandon Staley hard to make, Sean Payton apparently has his sights set on two teams in the Mountain Time Zone.  Josina Anderson tweets of his affinities:

@JosinaAnderson

Obviously Sean Payton is a top dog. My understanding right now is Payton has a high affinity for the Chargers & Cowboys, w/t Cardinals being a consideration too, if jobs become available. When Denver calls, I expect him to listen, though he historically prefers strong link to GM.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

A holiday tale from Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

Angels and wise men come in all shapes and sizes. This one stands 6 foot 2 and weighs 310 pounds.

Texans defensive tackle Maliek Collins provided a family he had never met with an unexpected, once-in-a-lifetime Christmas. Collins’ gift to Courtney Luhrs and her 17-year-old son, Ethan, is an all-expenses-paid trip to Houston to see the Texans play the Jaguars on New Year’s Day.

 “It feels good to be able to surprise a family who obviously supports us on Sundays,” Collins said. “It’s just about bringing light to somebody else’s life. It’s the holiday season, but it’s always the season of giving.”

Luhrs, a single mom and full-time student working toward an associate degree in cyber security, reluctantly asked for help before Christmas with a post on the NextDoor app serving her Torrance, California, neighborhood. Ann O’Dell saw the post, and her family adopted the Luhrs.

The first thing Luhrs texted O’Dell was: “Ethan said he wanted signed Christmas cards. It’s just the two of us, and so I am thinking to him that symbolizes family. Ethan wants Christmas cards to have displayed and that would make his Christmas. He is an amazing son.”

“That’s so simple and basic,” O’Dell said. “That really was the genesis of it.”

While O’Dell and her family filled the base of the Christmas tree with gifts, O’Dell set out on a mission to load the Luhrs’ mailbox with Christmas cards. She texted friends and family, who not only sent cards but forwarded the request. I asked O’Dell, a friend, to ask Ethan his favorite football team, and surprisingly, he said the Texans.

The public relations staffs of the Chargers, Rams and 49ers and the Cowboys and Texans fulfilled my request to send Ethan a Christmas card. Some threw in a gift, including a 49ers’ division championship hat that ended up topping the family’s Christmas tree.

Texans football communications manager Evert Geerlings took a card into the locker room last week for some players to sign. The defensive linemen had just returned from a community event at Isaacs Elementary, an inner-city school in Houston, which Collins said put him in a giving spirit.

Before he signed the card, Collins asked Geerlings who the card was for and what the story was. What happened next stunned even Geerlings.

“I’ve been around the league nine years now and had the opportunity to work with some amazing people,” Geerlings said, “and I told Maliek, ‘The fact that you are the first person that I’ve seen do something like this to this extent says a lot.’ I’ve seen a lot of great people do a lot of nice things, but I’ve never worked with someone who just literally out of the blue said, ‘I want to take care of this kid. Can we make it happen?’ It was in the blink of an eye.”

Collins initially declined a request from PFT to write about his generosity, but he finally agreed.

The story is too good to be left untold.

“I’ve done some other stuff, but I’m a fly-under-the-radar type,” said Collins, who spent four seasons with the Cowboys, one with the Raiders and now is in his second season in Houston. “I’m really just a normal person, but I look at it from perspective. When I was Ethan’s age, something like this probably would have changed my life, so I would love to have that impact on someone else.”

Geerlings and O’Dell arranged a surprise FaceTime call between Collins and Courtney and Ethan last Friday night. When Malik introduced himself, Ethan started crying, and Courtney kept repeating, “Wait, what?” when they learned of the offer. Courtney, who is from Houston, still has family there she hasn’t seen in several years.

The Luhrs will fly into Houston on Saturday and go directly to NRG Stadium to meet Collins for the first time as he guides them on a tour.

“I totally whole-heartedly believe this whole thing is a God moment,” Courtney said. “I really wrestled whether to post something, and just getting so many Christmas cards, knowing somebody out there cares, has changed Ethan. It’s just been amazing, and it shows you just how amazing people can be.”

INDIANAPOLIS

Owner GM Jim Irsay’s ESPN interview is most noteworthy for his continued support of GM Chris Ballard. Joel Erickson in the Indianapolis Star:

Colts owner Jim Irsay sat down for an interview on the state of his team with ESPN’s “Monday Night Countdown” that will air before the team’s game against the Chargers.

ESPN has already aired a highlight reel from the interview, and in the clip Irsay talks about the team’s decision to fire Frank Reich, hire Jeff Saturday as the team’s interim head coach and handicaps where the team is headed in the offseason.

Irsay said Chris Ballard will be back as general manager, acknowledged that the quarterback situation is up in the air and pledged to hold an open interview process while simultaneously issuing a vote of confidence in Saturday.

“The head coach is an unknown until the interview process goes forward,” said Irsay, who must follow the Rooney Rules and consider candidates of color in the search. “I will go into it seriously open-minded, and I’ll be looking for the best direction for us to win. Jeff, I believe, is an outstanding candidate, so obviously, he’s competitive for that.”

Irsay has issued several predictions this year and ultimately changed his mind.

During the draft, the owner said that Matt Ryan’s time as starting quarterback might last beyond the two years left on his contract, then instigated a change to Sam Ehlinger after just seven games. Irsay also told ESPN that Reich was safe, then fired him a week later, just one season into a five-year extension.

According to ESPN, Reich is now owed $36 million over the next four years.

Irsay tried to signal that he was unsure about the decision to extend Reich along with Ballard, who was also signed through 2026 last year.

“I reluctantly gave Frank an extension sooner than I wanted to,” Irsay told ESPN. “When you see it really, really coming apart, then you realize you have to make that change. Frank’s forever part of the horseshoe, and he’s beloved. He very well may coach again big-time, and we’re rooting for him to do that.”

From the clip, it’s unclear why Irsay felt pressured to give Reich an extension, considering that his word on the Colts is final. Irsay also said once again that he wouldn’t have fired Reich after the New England game if Saturday was not available, and made it clear he started courting Saturday before Reich had been fired.

“The New England game ended and I instantly engaged with Jeff,” Irsay said.

Saturday is 1-4 so far, coaching the Colts to four consecutive losses, including a 33-0 fourth-quarter blowout by Dallas, and then last week, giving up a 33-0 lead to Minnesota in the worst collapse in NFL history.

“It’s almost impossible what happened,” Irsay said. “We let them steal our lunch money, we just let them take it away.”

TENNESSEE

The consensus of three scribes at The Athletic is that Coach Mike Vrabel should not be worried about his job security:

The Titans fired former GM Jon Robinson earlier this month. Should coach Mike Vrabel be worried about his job if he can’t right the Titans’ ship in their last two games, vs. the Cowboys and at the Jaguars?

Jones: The firing of Robinson was supposed to translate into more power for Vrabel after he and the GM had clashed over personnel decisions, including trading away top wideout A.J. Brown. That firing came after the Titans had lost two straight to open December. But now that Vrabel’s squad has lost another three games, falling to 7-8, Amy Adams Strunk has to be taking a long, hard look at her head coach. No Ryan Tannehill hurts. But still, the Titans’ execution the last month has been troubling, and losing to the hapless Texans is inexcusable. Afterward, Vrabel lamented the Titans’ lack of ball security and said that his team isn’t built to overcome turnovers. That’s true. The Titans have no home-run threat outside of running back Derrick Henry. But even so, roster construction isn’t entirely to blame. Vrabel and his staff’s game plans are bland. The team doesn’t consistently play to its strengths. And Tennessee isn’t playing the type of smart, complementary football it has been known for under Vrabel. That makes you wonder if the former linebacker has lost his touch with this group.

Kahler: Nope. Vrabel has built up enough of a track record and goodwill there to withstand this bad stretch. Robinson’s firing was packaged as an ownership decision, but it’s pretty clear Vrabel won a power struggle. Despite their recent struggles, the Titans have an identity under Vrabel and his reputation around the NFL is strong enough to make him a really valuable hire anywhere. I assume Strunk knows that. This offseason will be important for Vrabel to work together with with a new GM or personnel executive to fill roster holes so the Titans are built even more in Vrabel’s vision.

Nguyen: Vrabrel is a very good head coach who has consistently gotten the most out of his teams. His defenses are always well coached, physical and aggressive. This season, the Titans have had nightmarish injuries on both sides of the ball and they still are challenging for a playoff spot. Tannehill has missed multiple games, forcing them to start Malik Willis, who is a project and isn’t ready to play. Yet the Titans still have a chance to finish the season with a winning record. If Vrabrel is fired, another team would pounce on the opportunity to hire him.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

QB TUA TAGOVIALOA heads back to the concussion protocol.  Marcel Louis-Jacques ofESPN.com:

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has entered the NFL’s concussion protocol a day after the team’s loss Sunday to the Green Bay Packers, coach Mike McDaniel said.

McDaniel said Tagovailoa displayed and admitted to having concussion symptoms when he spoke with team doctors Monday and was immediately placed into the protocol. He added that he’s unsure on which play Tagovailoa might have initially suffered the concussion.

It marks the second time this season Tagovailoa has been placed into the protocol.

Backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will take first-team snaps while Tagovailoa is out, but McDaniel said it’s too early to name a starting quarterback for Sunday’s game against the New England Patriots.

“I just want guys to really be done right by, by the information we have, the science and all the medical expertise that we rely on,” McDaniel said. “I care very deeply about each and every player, I take that very serious. I just want him to get healthy and have peace of mind in that regard. … It’s about the human being and making sure he’s squared away.”

Tagovailoa previously entered the concussion protocol after the Dolphins’ game against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4 and was hospitalized briefly then after his head hit the turf. He went on to miss the team’s next two games and returned in Week 7.

Tagovailoa had taken another hard hit four days before the Cincinnati game during a win over Buffalo. He appeared to show concussion symptoms but was evaluated and stayed in the game.

Safety advocate Chris Nowinski is among those finding a play that would could have caused the concussion late in the first half.

@ChrisNowinski1

Sadly, it happened.

Tua Tagovailoa is in the #concussion protocol after reporting symptoms today, likely from this play in Q2 ⬇️. Missed by team again, despite poor play & 3 INT’s after. 3rd concussion of season-no doctor in their right mind can clear him this year. Season over.https://twitter.com/i/status/1607526999429611520

THIS AND THAT

GMS GOING UP, AND DOWN

Mike Jones of The Athletic:

It’s NFL Week 17, which means we’ve had ample time to see how the offseason decisions of all 32 teams’ front offices have played out.

Some general managers helped construct squads that exceeded expectations and forced their way into the mix of contenders. Others overcame challenges to keep their teams near the front of the pack. A few failed miserably in their attempts to aggressively deliver championship-caliber rosters.

We’re taking stock across the league, evaluating some of the best and worst bodies of work by general managers and their staffs. Who has helped themselves and their teams the most as the postseason approaches, and who could find themselves in danger of being fired this offseason?

Here’s a look at six GMs whose stock is up and six whose stock is down.

Down: George Paton, Denver Broncos

After a 51-14 Christmas Day throttling by the struggling Rams, coach Nathaniel Hackett took the fall, and in many regards, rightfully so. But Paton should not get a pass here as new Broncos owner Greg Penner determines the future of his franchise.

Penner said he had “confidence” in the Broncos GM in a statement announcing Hackett’s firing Monday. But it was Paton who hired Hackett, who rarely appeared suited to be a head coach during this dismal 4-11 campaign. And it was Paton who shipped five draft picks (including first- and second-rounders in 2022 and 2023) and three players to Seattle for Russell Wilson, who has looked like a shell of himself. And it was Paton who awarded Wilson a massive $240 million contract extension before the quarterback ever took a snap for Denver.

Now, not only are the Broncos stuck with Wilson and that awful contract for at least the next three seasons, they also lack the draft capital necessary to rebuild or to pry the contractual rights to Sean Payton away from the New Orleans Saints. You can’t miss on the coach and the quarterback, set the franchise back for years and years and expect your job to be safe.

Up: Howie Roseman, Philadelphia Eagles

The GM and his staff are being rewarded for having the foresight to draft Jalen Hurts, who replaced Carson Wentz as starter late in his 2020 rookie season, and to replace coach Doug Pederson with Nick Sirianni in 2021. In the offseason, Roseman made aggressive moves to surround Hurts with weapons (wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, among others) and the best line in football. He also upgraded the secondary with the key signing of James Bradberry to play opposite Darius Slay. It has all added up to give the Eagles, at 13-2, the best record in the league.

Down: Steve Keim, Arizona Cardinals

Keim is on an indefinite, health-related absence from the Cardinals that was announced by the team Dec. 14. In July, though, Keim gave into pressure by Kyler Murray and his agent and awarded the quarterback a $230 million contract extension, with $189.5 million guaranteed. That was despite the fact the 2019 No. 1 pick had fizzled down the stretch in all three of his pro seasons. The Cardinals were 4-8 (now 4-11) when Murray suffered a torn ACL in a game against the Patriots on Dec. 12, putting his availability for the start of the 2023 season in question. Keim also signed off on a contract extension in March for Kliff Kingsbury, even though the coach had posted just one winning campaign in three seasons. The acquisitions of aging and ineffective veterans like A.J. Green and Zach Ertz also haven’t panned out.

Up: Brad Holmes, Detroit Lions

He flipped Matthew Stafford in 2021 for Jared Goff, two first-round picks and a third, and now Goff (top 10 in passing) looks like he could be more than just a short-term bridge. Meanwhile, smart draft selections are paying off. Rookies Aidan Hutchinson, Malcolm Rodriguez, James Houston and Kerby Joseph are making key contributions, as are picks from last year’s draft. Holmes acquired more draft capital by trading tight end T.J. Hockenson to Minnesota. As the young talent has rounded into form, the Lions have scratched and clawed their way back from 1-6 to force their way into the wild-card race at 7-8.

Down: Chris Ballard, Indianapolis Colts

The swings-and-misses at quarterback continued: The Colts traded Wentz after one season and acquired Matt Ryan, who is on the decline and not the difference-maker Ballard and company saw him as. Indianapolis (4-10-1) started Nick Foles against the Chargers on Monday night, and lost. The Colts also attempted to retool their offensive line and were left with nothing but ill-fitting parts. That cost them dearly in the run game, which had ranked among their strengths. Former coach Frank Reich was the scapegoat during the regular season, but could Ballard be next for Jim Irsay? His team went from narrowly missing the playoffs in 2021 to double-digit losses in 2022.

Up: Brett Veach, Kansas City Chiefs

Faced with the decision of whether to award top wide receiver Tyreek Hill a massive contract extension, Veach shipped Hill to the Dolphins in exchange for a first- and second-rounder, two fourths and a sixth. He retooled the receiving unit by adding JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and a collection of young, versatile players to support Patrick Mahomes. Despite all the change, the Chiefs still own one of the best offenses and, at 12-3, a chance to land the AFC’s top seed.

Down: Nick Caserio, Houston Texans

The head coach hirings of David Culley and then Lovie Smith have not panned out. Meanwhile, the Texans passed on the chance to acquire a veteran bridge quarterback in free agency, opting instead to roll with Davis Mills once again. Talent deficiencies abound on this roster, and Houston (2-12-1) has suffered double-digit losses for a third straight season.

Up: Chris Grier, Miami Dolphins

The season’s goal was to maximize the investment in third-year pro Tua Tagovailoa. Grier armed the 2020 fifth pick with a creative, young offensive-minded head coach in Mike McDaniel and one of the game’s best wide receivers in Hill. Tagovailoa looked like an MVP candidate early, but the Dolphins’ losing streak has reached four games, and Tagovailoa is now in concussion protocol (again). It may turn out that he is not the answer for Miami, but the roster is well-stocked with talent on both sides of the ball.

Down: Eric DeCosta, Baltimore Ravens

Securing Lamar Jackson’s long-term future and surrounding him with enough talent to contend with Kansas City and Buffalo topped the Ravens’ to-do list for 2022. But with two weeks left in the regular season, Jackson still lacks a contract extension, and Baltimore’s struggles to find consistent and impactful playmakers for its quarterback have continued. The Ravens have locked up a playoff berth, but Jackson has missed the last three games with injury, and prior to that, Baltimore’s offense had become stagnant despite featuring one of the most dynamic players in the NFL. Meanwhile, Cincinnati (11-4) has turned things around after a slow start and overtaken the Ravens (10-5) for the top spot in the AFC North.

Up: John Lynch, San Francisco 49ers

If you want an example of how to build a roster, look no further than the 49ers. Despite losing quarterbacks Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo to injury, they haven’t missed a beat with rookie Brock Purdy (the last pick of the 2022 draft) playing quarterback at a high level. And injuries weren’t limited just to quarterback. The 49ers have had to play without key pieces on both sides of the ball off and on in 2022, yet they still are 11-4 and in the postseason for the third time in four seasons. The 49ers have used the draft, free agency and trades to fortify their roster, boasting a wealth of weapons on offense and playmakers on defense.

Down: Brian Gutekunst, Green Bay Packers

The Packers (7-8) went from three straight 13-win seasons to struggling just to stay around .500 in 2022. A big reason for these struggles is related to the decision to trade top wide receiver Davante Adams to Las Vegas, leaving an aging (and highly paid) Aaron Rodgers without reliable and consistent game-changers. Moves on defense also haven’t translated into improvement for the Packers, who are in danger of missing the playoffs.

Up: Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, Minnesota Vikings

The first-year GM inherited a roster that had some talent but also needed an infusion of youth and depth to maximize potential. Adofo-Mensah’s first critical move was to hire Kevin O’Connell as head coach. The former journeyman quarterback and offensive coordinator Wes Phillips came in and modernized the Vikings offense. Then Adofo-Mensah made a series of smart moves in the draft by trading back to acquire more picks and meet important depth needs. Fast forward to the regular season, where the Vikings (12-3) have ranked among the top teams in the NFC. They have won in just about every manner imaginable — blowouts, nail-biters, comebacks. They’ve won pretty. They’ve won ugly. They figure to enter the postseason well-tested and looking at their best chance in years for a deep run.

AGAINST THE SPREAD

The Bengals and Giants have offered the best value to bettors in 2022, while supporting Tampa Bay has been costly.  TeamRankings.com:

Team           ATS RecordCover %

Cincinnati        12-3-0  80.0%

NY Giants       11-4-0  73.3%

San Francisco 10-5-0  66.7%

Detroit             10-5-0  66.7%

LA Chargers    9-5-1    64.3%

Dallas              9-6-0    60.0%

Tennessee      8-6-1    57.1%

Pittsburgh        8-6-1    57.1%

Atlanta             8-7-0    53.3%

Philadelphia    8-7-0    53.3%

NY Jets           8-7-0    53.3%

Carolina           8-7-0    53.3%

Buffalo             7-7-1    50.0%

New England  7-7-1    50.0%

Washington     7-7-1    50.0%

Houston           7-7-1    50.0%

Green Bay       7-8-0    46.7%

Jacksonville    7-8-0    46.7%

Arizona            7-8-0    46.7%

Las Vegas       7-8-0    46.7%

Miami              7-8-0    46.7%

Cleveland        7-8-0    46.7%

Baltimore         6-8-1    42.9%

Minnesota       6-8-1    42.9%

New Orleans   6-9-0    40.0%

Denver             6-9-0    40.0%

Seattle             6-9-0    40.0%

Indianapolis     6-9-0    40.0%

LA Rams         5-8-2    38.5%

Kansas City     5-9-1    35.7%

Chicago           5-9-1    35.7%

Tampa Bay      3-11-1  21.4%

The 49ers open as 5-point favorites at Las Vegas.

The Bengals are 1-point underdogs at home to Buffalo.

The Buccaneers open as 3-point favorites over the Panthers.

What about going “over” – we will show you the leaders and losers:

Philadelphia    10-5-0  66.7%

Minnesota       10-5-0  66.7%

Chicago           10-5-0  66.7%

Detroit             10-5-0  66.7%

Dallas                9-6-0  60.0%

– – –

Washington     5-9-1    35.7%

Cincinnati        5-9-1    35.7%

LA Chargers    5-9-1    35.7%

Buffalo             5-10-0  33.3%

Indianapolis     5-10-0  33.3%

NY Jets           5-10-0  33.3%

Tennessee      5-10-0  33.3%

Denver           4-11-0  26.7%

Baltimore         4-11-0  26.7%

Tampa Bay      4-11-0  26.7%

2023 DRAFT

Up close and personal with the top 10 picks in the draft, courtesy of Matt Miller and Jordan Reid of ESPN.com (has there ever been a top 10 DEFENSIVE prospect from Texas Tech?):

The 2023 NFL draft class is loaded with talent, from three exceptional quarterback prospects to potential generational defensive players to immediate impact game-breakers on offense. As we move through college football’s bowl season and inch closer to the clock starting on Round 1, we asked draft analysts Jordan Reid and Matt Miller to introduce a few of the top prospects every NFL fan needs to know.

We picked 10 players who are ranked high on most boards and are likely to be drafted early in the first round come April. Jordan and Matt dove in on each prospect’s background, standout traits and draft stock. Plus, they took a closer look at what’s next for all 10, from bowl game appearances to pre-draft events. Let’s start with a trio of quarterbacks who have a good chance to be the No. 1 pick.

Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

Year: Junior | Age: 21 | Career starts: 26

Height: 6-foot | Weight: 194 pounds

Reid’s current ranking: No. 3 overall (QB1)

2022 stats: Young has thrown for 3,007 yards and 27 touchdown passes with 5 interceptions, while posting an 83.6 Total QBR. His 7.1% off-target rate is fifth-best in the FBS.

Who is Young? He came out of Mater Dei High School in Pasadena, California as the top-ranked dual-threat passer in the 2020 class. After sitting behind Mac Jones in his freshman year at Alabama, Young took over during the 2021 season — and his sophomore campaign was one of the most prolific in program history. Young went on to set program records in passing yards (4,872) and total touchdowns (47), helping him become only the fourth Alabama winner of the Heisman Trophy.

Young didn’t have the same caliber supporting cast in 2022, but he still once again eclipsed 3,000 passing yards to become the first Crimson Tide signal-caller to hit that mark in back-to-back seasons. His running ability stood out this season, too, as he gained 195 yards and scored four times on the ground.

Standout trait: Young’s overall poise really stands out. No matter the moment of the game, he plays with the same heartbeat.

What’s next? Young already officially graduated but will play in the Allstate Sugar Bowl against Kansas State on Dec. 31. Then pro day and combine workouts await. — Reid

C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Year: Junior | Age: 21 | Career starts: 24

Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 215 pounds

Miller’s current ranking: No. 6 overall (QB2)

2022 stats: Stroud has thrown for 3,340 yards and 37 touchdowns with 6 interceptions, while posting an 87.7 Total QBR. His 9.4 yards per attempt ranks third in the country.

Who is Stroud? A five-star prospect coming out of Rancho Cucamonga (California), Stroud went on to be a two-year starter and two-time Heisman finalist at Ohio State. After sitting behind Justin Fields for a year, he beat out one of the highest-graded quarterbacks in recruiting history (Quinn Ewers) for the 2021 starting job as a sophomore and emerged as one of the nation’s most efficient passers (4,435 yards, 44 TD throws). He won the Big Ten’s Graham-George Offensive Player of the Year Award, the Thompson-Randle El Freshman of the Year Award and the Griese-Brees Quarterback of the Year Award. He also set a Rose Bowl record following the 2021 season, throwing for 573 yards and six touchdowns.

A team captain in 2022, Stroud was once again a Heisman finalist and led the NCAA with 37 passing touchdowns. In two seasons of starts, he has eclipsed the six-touchdown mark three times and has six games of five touchdowns thrown.

Standout trait: Accuracy to all levels of the field is Stroud’s signature trait. His ability to drop the ball into space and give receivers room to operate is the best in the draft class.

What’s next? As a junior non-graduate, Stroud will not be eligible for the Shrine Bowl or Senior Bowl, instead preparing for the scouting combine following Ohio State’s run in the College Football Playoff. First up in the CFP is Georgia in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. The combine and his pro day workout will be Stroud’s tentpole events in the pre-draft process. — Miller

Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Year: Redshirt senior | Age: 23 | Career starts: 26

Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 232 pounds

Reid’s current ranking: No. 21 overall (QB4)

2022 stats: Levis threw for 2,406 yards and 19 touchdowns with 10 interceptions, while posting a 60.2 Total QBR. His 10.6 yards per attempt off play-action ranks 12th in the FBS.

Who is Levis? Levis was ranked as the second-best recruit overall in Connecticut in 2018 (three-star player). He played in 15 games for Penn State, but with only two starts for the Nittany Lions and already with his degree in hand, Levis sought a larger role. He graduate transferred to Kentucky prior to the 2021 season and made an instant impact. Starting all 13 games, he led the Wildcats to a 10-win season and became only the seventh player in program history to surpass 3,000 yards of total offense.

After displaying great dual-threat ability under then-offensive coordinator Liam Coen (nine TD runs in 2021), Levis immediately became one of the top signal-callers to watch heading into the 2022 season. But the Wildcats lost Coen to the Los Angeles Rams, and Levis battled lingering turf toe and shoulder ailments in 2022. Kentucky went 7-4, and while Levis’ yards per attempt improved a bit (8.5, up from 8.0), he didn’t really cut down on the interceptions that plagued his game the year before (10 picks after throwing 13 in 2021).

Standout trait: Levis has an easy throwing motion that enables him to get plenty of velocity behind his throws. His arm strength stands out right away on tape, and scouts love the physical traits in his game.

What’s next? Levis is eligible for postseason all-star contests and has already received an invitation to the Senior Bowl — but he hasn’t made an official decision about participating yet. He opted out of Kentucky’s TransPerfect Music City Bowl against Iowa, though, which means he will turn his attention immediately toward the draft. — Reid

Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama

Year: Junior | Age: 21 | Career starts: 40

Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 243 pounds

Miller’s current ranking: No. 1 overall (OLB1)

2022 stats: Anderson has 10 sacks, 21.5 tackles for loss and 53 pressures, and he returned an interception for a TD. His 21 run stops are tied for ninth in the FBS.

Who is Anderson? A consensus four-star recruit from Hampton, Georgia, Anderson signed with Alabama over in-state favorites and immediately hit the field as a key starter in his true freshman season. Over the past three seasons, he has taken over the SEC record book and compiled numerous awards, earning SEC Defensive Player of the Year honors (twice), the Bronko Nagurski Trophy (twice), the Chuck Bednarik Award, the Lott Trophy and unanimous All-American honors (twice).

Anderson amassed 10 starts at Alabama with double-digit sacks, including a four-sack performance against Mississippi State in 2021. He has 68 tackles for loss and 34.5 sacks over three seasons, and his best campaign came in 2021 when he registered 34.5 tackles for loss, 17.5 sacks and 79 pressures.

Standout trait: Anderson’s first-step quickness is a sight to see. It allows him to beat offensive tackles off their spot and hurry the quarterback through their reads before hitting their drop.

What’s next? As a true junior, Anderson is not all-star game eligible and will begin his draft process by preparing for the scouting combine. But first, Anderson will join Young at the Allstate Sugar Bowl against Kansas State on Dec. 31. — Miller

Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

Year: Junior | Age: 21 | Career starts: 11

Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 300 pounds

Reid’s current ranking: No. 2 overall (DT1)

2022 stats: Carter has 3 sacks, 6 tackles for loss and a forced fumble. He has also added 20 pressures.

Who is Carter? He hails from Apopka, Florida — the same hometown as former NFL defensive tackle Warren Sapp — and was a consensus four-star prospect (the No. 3-ranked defensive tackle in the country). Carter started his Georgia career as a rotational player in his true freshman year and then recorded two starts in 2021 for what’s considered to be one of the best college defenses ever. Despite three first-round picks along that national champion defensive line, some still considered Carter to be the unit’s best player.

This season, Carter battled through a knee injury suffered during the team’s fifth game, causing him to miss two contests. But he still played in 11 games (seven starts), and it was obvious that the Bulldogs’ defense is on another level when he is up the middle.

Standout trait: He has a natural ability to penetrate the first level and cause instant disruption. Carter has an explosive first step and complements it with strong hands at the point of attack to puncture and finish plays behind the line of scrimmage.

What’s next? Carter is not eligible for any postseason all-star contests, but Georgia is the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff, and many eyes will be on him against Ohio State in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. — Reid

Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

Year: Junior | Age: 20 | Career starts: 28

Height: 6-foot | Weight: 222 pounds

Miller’s current ranking: No. 4 overall (RB1)

2022 stats: Robinson rushed for a career-best 1,580 yards (6.1 per carry) and 18 touchdowns, and he added two receiving TDs on 19 catches. Robinson created 90 missed tackles this season, tops in the country.

Who is Robinson? A five-star recruit and Arizona Gatorade Player of the Year back in 2020, Robinson hit the field immediately at Texas and produced as expected. He was the 2022 Doak Walker Award winner, a unanimous All-American and a two-time first-team All-Big 12 performer (2021, 2022). Robinson leaves Texas ranked No. 4 all-time in rushing yards and total touchdowns (41) while also being named to the Academic All-Big 12 First Team in 2021.

Robinson topped the 100-yard mark 18 times in his college career, including in nine of his final 10 collegiate games.

Standout trait: Robinson’s contact balance is a rare trait, allowing him to bounce off tacklers and evade would-be tacklers in space with awesome balance, body control and power.

What’s next? He has declared for the draft and will bypass the Longhorns’ Valero Alamo Bowl against Washington. He is not all-star eligible and will prepare for the scouting combine, up first in his pre-draft schedule. — Miller

Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

Year: Redshirt junior | Age: 22 | Career starts: 31

Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 200 pounds

Reid’s current ranking: No. 11 overall (CB1)

2022 stats: Porter had 25 tackles and 11 pass breakups this season. He allowed only 3.7 yards per passing attempt as the primary defender, the fifth-best mark in the country.

Who is Porter? The son of 13-year NFL veteran linebacker Joey Porter, he was a multisport athlete in Pennsylvania. The younger Porter was a three-star recruit after spending time at both wide receiver and defensive back in high school, and he stayed in-state to suit up for the Nittany Lions. After redshirting during his first season on campus (2019), he became a key starter the following year.

But his true breakout year came in 2022, when he started at outside corner in 10 games. Despite not hauling in an interception, he contested 75.9% of the passes thrown in his direction — the fourth-best mark in the country. A first-team All-Big Ten selection this season, Porter is likely to be the first Penn State defensive back to ever be chosen in the first round of the NFL draft. He finished his college career with 17 pass breakups and an interception.

Standout trait: His suffocating length allows him to attack wideouts at the line of scrimmage, but Porter also does a good job using it to squeeze and close throwing windows.

What’s next? Porter has already announced that he will skip the Nittany Lions’ matchup against Utah in the Rose Bowl and begin his preparations for the combine. — Reid

Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

Year: Junior | Age: 21 | Career starts: 28

Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 215 pounds

Miller’s current ranking: No. 15 overall (WR3)

2022 stats: Johnston has caught 53 passes for 903 yards and five touchdowns, while averaging 17 yards per catch. He has forced 23 missed tackles on receptions, fourth-best in the FBS.

Who is Johnston? A four-star recruit from Temple, Texas, Johnston was the second-highest-rated recruit to sign at TCU during Gary Patterson’s 20-year tenure. Johnston made an impact early on, averaging 22.1 yards per catch as a freshman. The wideout caught 13 touchdowns and had over 2,000 yards receiving on 108 receptions during his three years, and he was a first-team All-Big 12 player in 2021. He went for 185 yards and three touchdowns against Oklahoma that year.

This season, Johnston has three games with more than 130 receiving yards and scored in five of his final eight contests, despite dealing with an ankle injury.

Standout trait: Johnston plays like a power forward when attacking the ball down the field, displaying excellent body control to out-position smaller defensive backs for jump balls and on vertical routes.

What’s next? Johnston will suit up for the College Football Playoff semifinal against Michigan (Vrbo Fiesta Bowl), but he is not all-star game eligible as a junior non-graduate. He’ll prepare for the scouting combine and pro day workouts following the playoffs. — Miller

Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

Year: Redshirt senior | Age: 22 | Career starts: 28

Height: 6-foot-6 | Weight: 275 pounds

Reid’s current ranking: No. 6 overall (DE1)

2022 stats: Wilson finished his year with 72 tackles, 15 tackles for loss and seven sacks. His 16.0% pressure percentage is the fourth-best rate among all defenders in the country.

Who is Wilson? Born in Henderson, Texas, he was a three-star recruit and the No. 16 defensive end in the state coming out of high school, and his college career began at Texas A&M. After two years and 12 games there, Wilson opted to transfer. He served primarily as a rotational defensive tackle in Year 1 in Lubbock before switching back to defensive end during the backstretch of the 2020 season.

Wilson broke out in 2021 with seven sacks and was an All-Big 12 honorable mention and the AutoZone Liberty Bowl’s defensive MVP. He came into 2022 with a lot of hype and lived up to it as a first-team all-conference selection. He finished the year with 37 pressures (tied for 13th) and was a big riser on a lot of draft boards. The Red Raiders haven’t had a first-round selection along the defensive line since 1983 (Gabriel Rivera, Pittsburgh Steelers).

Standout trait: Wilson has a unique frame with a good blend of power and buildup speed — and he plays with a powerful base.

What’s next? Wilson declared for the draft and will not play in Texas Tech’s TaxAct Texas Bowl game against Ole Miss. He accepted an invitation to the Senior Bowl, but after suffering a season-ending foot injury against Kansas, he opted to have surgery. That means his status for participating in the contest is uncertain. — Reid

Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

Year: Junior | Age: 21 | Career starts: 25

Height: 6-foot-6 | Weight: 310 pounds

Miller’s current ranking: No. 7 overall (OT1)

2022 stats: Johnson started all 12 games at left tackle, allowing one sack and seven pressures over the course of the season.

Who is Johnson? A consensus five-star recruit out of Cincinnati, Johnson was the No. 1-rated tackle in the 2020 class after receiving the Anthony Munoz Lineman of the Year Award. He worked his way into the Ohio State lineup as a sophomore, starting at right guard, where he was a second-team All-Big Ten performer and Academic All-Big Ten. Johnson moved to left tackle in 2022 and excelled, earning consensus first-team All-American honors while being named a Lombardi Award semifinalist.

Standout trait: Johnson’s recovery agility is special, allowing him to easily redirect and reposition once he’s settled into his pass set.

What’s next? He will anchor Ohio State’s offensive line against Georgia in the College Football Playoff, starting with a Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl matchup with Georgia. Once the playoffs are over, Johnson will begin preparation for the scouting combine. — Miller

Back in the old days, a player took a college offer of a scholarship to get a degree, not a fat NIL contract.

Alabama’s BRYCE YOUNG and WILL ANDERSON are a little bit old-fashioned in that they both managed their business enough to get degrees in under four years. Mark Rodak of AL.com wrote this a couple of weeks ago:

Alabama’s two superstar junior football players, quarterback Bryce Young and outside linebacker Will Anderson, will graduate from the university on Saturday.

Neither Young nor Anderson has announced yet whether they will play in the Sugar Bowl against Kansas State, or whether they will declare as early entrants to the 2023 NFL draft. Both are widely expected, though, to enter the draft and be considered among the first players chosen.

Both players were five-star members of Alabama’s 2020 recruiting class and had been on track to graduate in three years since enrolling early as freshmen in the spring of 2020.

The school said Friday that Anderson and Young both will graduate with grade-point averages above 3.0.