We will do If The Season Ended Today for the NFC now, since the Cowboys are dead last in the conference table at the moment.  AFC tomorrow after Baltimore declares itself.

As a sign of changing times, the Washington Football Team appears as a legitimate Wild Card hopeful:

New Orleans        South          10-2     8-1

Green Bay           North          9-3       7-2

LA Rams              West           8-4       8-2

NY Giants            East            5-7       4-6      

Seattle                  WC1           8-4       6-3

Tampa Bay          WC2           7-5       4-4

Minnesota            WC3           6-6       4-4      

Arizona                                    6-6       4-4

Chicago                                   5-7       5-5

Detroit                                    5-7       4-5

San Francisco                         5-7      3-5

Washington                             5-7       3-5

Changes from last week, Green Bay up to 2 from 3.

Rams up to 3 from 5

Seattle drops from 3 to 5

Minnesota replaces Arizona in the 3^rd Wild Card spot.

Detroit and Washington move up to one game off the playoff line.

– – –

Good news!   The NFL seems to be beating back Covid.

Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com:

The NFL experienced a significant drop in COVID-19 infections during its most recent testing period, likely the result of a mid-November decision to place all 32 teams under “intensive” protocols designed to minimize high-risk close contacts.

A total of 45 NFL employees — 18 players and 27 staff members — returned positive test results between Nov. 29 and Dec. 5. That is a 47.7% drop from the previous testing period and the lowest for any testing period since the end of October. The NFL and NFL Players Association typically test between 7,000 and 8,000 people per testing period.

The NFL shifted into enhanced protocols on Nov. 18, after the start of an outbreak among Baltimore Ravens players and staff that lasted nearly two weeks. Among other things, the protocols require that all meetings be held virtually unless they can be conducted outside or in a practice bubble with all participants wearing masks and using contact tracing devices.

In addition, all players and coaches must wear masks during walk-through practices. Weight room attendance is limited to 10 players and five coaches at a time, use of locker rooms is discouraged and cafeterias are allowed to serve only grab-and-go items.

The NFL has continued to evolve those protocols and, this week, reduced access to team facilities in the two days after every game.

NFC EAST

NEW YORK GIANTS

The 2020 Giants are surging in part because of a stellar rookie class.  Chris Trapasso ofCBSSports.com:

The Giants stunned the NFL world not just by by beating the previously 8-3 Seahawks but also by the way they did it. Seattle came into the Week 13 battle averaging 31 points per game. New York’s defense held them to 12. The Seahawks also entered this contest as one of the league’s stoutest run defenses. The Giants ran for 190 yards at 6.1 yards per pop.

And they secured their biggest win of the season to date with backup quarterback Colt McCoy under center, on the road, and he averaged a measly 4.8 yards per attempt.

This win — and quiet four-game winning streak — has been in large part to the Giants 2020 draft, a hefty 10-player class that couldn’t have been more Dave Gettleman — three offensive linemen, four defensive front seven players, a strong safety, and two corners. Now, this collection of first-year pros isn’t as excellent as the most famous rookie class in Giants lure — the 2007 group that featured Aaron Ross, Steve Smith, Kevin Boss, and Ahmad Bradshaw, a quartet integral in New York’s Super Bowl title that season. But it’s a draft class that collectively has played a sizable role in the club’s recent surge.

The Giants rookie draft picks played 269 total snaps in the win over the Seahawks and some of the late-round selections have slowly taken on larger roles as New York has crawled back to respectability while looking like a much more formidable out in the playoffs, if they get there. Let’s pinpoint all of the 2020 draftees who’ve contributed recently and/or importantly chipped in against Seattle and give them the credit they deserve

Andrew Thomas, LT

When the Giants sputtered out of the gate in 2020, Thomas was an easy whipping boy as the surprise top-5 selection at offensive tackle who had struggled mightily while others at his position — Tristan Wirfs, Mekhi Becton, and Jedrick Wills — thrived early in their rookie campaigns.

From Week 5 to Week 11, Thomas carried the unenviable distinction of being the offensive tackle who allowed the most pressures in the NFL. He’s now turned the corner. Since Week 9, the former Georgia star has surrendered just four pressures of the quarterback. What’s encouraging too — he’s blanked opposing pass rushers in each of the past three contests. No sacks, no hits, no hurries.

Xavier McKinney, S

McKinney was only the field for six snaps in Week 13, the same number of snaps he registered in Week 12, his NFL debut. The start to McKinney’s pro career was delayed after he fractured his foot and was placed on IR in early September. Fortunately for the Giants, strong safety Jabrill Peppers has taken a step in Year 4 — and second with the G-Men, particularly as a pass rusher. Peppers too has already set a career high in pass breakups with 10.

Matt Peart, RT

Peart was a star on many poor UConn teams, and his film was squeaky clean at the right tackle position — length, balanced footwork, and awesome hand placement time and time again. The Giants snagged him in the third round for offensive line depth, and he’s been a quality stand-in when needed. He’s only given up four pressures on 63 pass-blocking snaps and has demonstrated much more push for the run game than he showed for the Huskies, an encouraging sign that he’s added more power to his game. Peart’s played double-digit snaps in six outings this year — including 15 plays against Seattle and has yet to be a liability whatsoever. He has high-end upside due to his explosive athleticism at 6-foot-7 with nearly 37 — yes, 37 — inch arms.

Darnay Holmes, CB

Holmes was a fascinating yet puzzling prospect because he’d have a three-game stretch with first-round caliber play. The next two outings? Undrafted free agent film. But, the athleticism popped regardless of whether or not he found the football, and he ran 4.48 at nearly 200 pounds at the combine.

Holmes has absolutely taken his lumps as a rookie but has a respectable five pass breakups from the slot and the double-deflection interception of Russell Wilson in the Week 13 win. For being a fourth-round pick, Holmes has represented quality value at an increasingly vital position. There’ve been 40 catches in his target area this season — not a ridiculous figure for a slot corner — on 50 targets, but those passes have gone for an average of just 9.8 yards per.

Shane Lemieux, iOL

Lemieux has been the weakest think of the Giants rookies, and he probably wasn’t ready to be on the field as a rookie but was forced into the lineup due to injury. At Oregon, he started 52 straight games at left guard. As a prospect, there were clear athletic limitations, and he needed to gain strength to deal with power at the NFL level. And those two areas are where he’s struggled. But Lemieux has followed the upward trend of most Giants rookies of late. In the last two outings, he’s accounted for just one quarterback pressure.

Carter Coughlin, EDGE

Coughlin is the most interesting rookie on the Giants. Why? Because after a nine-sack, 15 tackle for loss junior campaign at Minnesota, he received first-round buzz and seemed locked into the top 50. Then, his senior season was a dud, and he weighed in at under 240 pounds at the combine, falling short of an edge-rusher weight threshold for most teams.

New York was able to pick him in the seventh round, No. 218 overall. Hello, value selection. Coughlin understands how to use his hands at the point of attack and flashed bend in that productive 2018 campaign. In Week’s 12 and 13, the former Gophers star played more than 10 snaps for the first time in his NFL career and registered a total of six pressures on just 37 pass-rush naps. He was the most active and disruptive outside rusher in the victory over Seattle.

Tae Crowder, LB

Mr. Irrelevant in the 2020 draft, Crowder will forever be an answer to a trivia question, and after mostly being a liability in September, he made his largest impact as a rookie in the win over the Seahawks with two quarterback pressures (one sack) on five pass-rushing snaps. The 6-3, 235-pound linebacker actually began his career at Georgia and running back but played the final three seasons at linebacker for the Bulldogs.

He had 10 sacks and five pass breakups in his final two seasons in Athens. Proving to be a quick study at a new position coupled with his build likely led to him being drafted. Side note: “Tae” is short for his full name, Dequartavous. Awesome.

PHILADELPHIA

QB JALEN HURTS didn’t show all that much after he replaced QB CARSON WENTZ on Sunday – but it may have been enough to win a start.  Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:

Eagles head coach Doug Pederson’s refusal to name a starting quarterback for Week 14 after pulling Carson Wentz in Sunday’s loss to the Packers suggested that Jalen Hurts was likely to get the nod and the choice has reportedly been made.

ESPN reports that Hurts will make his first NFL start against the Saints at home this Sunday. Wentz will serve as the backup.

The Eagles had resisted giving Hurts more than a token snap here or there through the first 11 games of the season, but they pulled Wentz with the Packers up 20-3 in the third quarter of Sunday’s game. Hurts threw a touchdown to Greg Ward and a Jalen Reagor punt return score to get the Eagles within a touchdown in the fourth quarter, but they wound up losing 30-16.

Hurts was 5-of-12 for 109 yards and also threw an interception. The second-round pick also ran five times for 29 yards.

There will be more discussion to come about what this means for Wentz’s future with the Eagles, but much of that will have to wait until everyone has seen what Hurts can do in the starting role.

More from Michael David Smith:

Eagles coach Doug Pederson has confirmed he’s benching Carson Wentz in favor of Jalen Hurts, and it’s all about seeing if Hurts can bring some heat to a stagnant offense.

Pederson told Sal Paolantonio of ESPN that switching to Hurts for Sunday’s game against the Saints was a decision he made because the Eagles have to get out of their rut.

“Same reason I made the switch in the game. We need a spark. It’s not about one guy here. We all know we need to be better,” Pederson said. “Doing this for the same reason; we need a spark, offense has been poor for many reasons. Opportunity for Jalen’s development. Still have great belief in Carson as a QB and leader of the team. We have to get him better and the offense as well.”

It’s been an ugly season for Wentz and the Eagles, and Pederson had little choice but to see what the second-round rookie can do. The Eagles are going to have some tough decisions to make at the quarterback position, and knowing whether Hurts can do the job is necessary before making those decisions.

WASHINGTON

The officials should not have allowed QB ALEX SMITH to run off the field with the ball on Monday night.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Washington was given a big break in its comeback win over Pittsburgh by the officials wrongly stopping the clock to before Washington kicked a field goal at the end of the first half.

With just seconds remaining in the second quarter and Washington out of timeouts, quarterback Alex Smith was tackled inbounds, and Washington’s field goal team raced onto the field with the clock running. But as the field goal team ran onto the field, Smith ran off — while still carrying the ball.

That meant the officials didn’t have a ball to spot for the next play. Usually, the NFL uses separate “K-balls” for kicking plays, but when a team is hurrying its field goal team onto the field, the officials don’t use the K-ball and instead just use the ball that was used on the previous offensive play. At least, they do when the quarterback doesn’t take the ball with him to the sideline.

But because Smith took the ball with him to the sideline, the officials had to signal to the sideline crew to bring out a K-ball. And when that didn’t happen immediately, the officials stopped the clock with eight seconds left. That gave Washington extra time to get its field goal team on the field, and Washington kicked a field goal before halftime.

Stopping the clock to benefit Washington was a mistake. As noted by former NFL referee and NBC rules analyst Terry McAulay, when the offense’s actions cause a delay in getting the ball spotted, the officials are not supposed to stop the clock. In this case, it was clear that Smith’s action of taking the ball with him to the sideline caused the delay, and so the officials should have let the clock run while they got a K-ball to spot for the field goal attempt. The umpire, who signaled to the clock operator to stop the clock, should not have done that.

Smith said after the game, “It was not intentional.” But intentional or not, Smith’s move gave the Football Team an advantage it shouldn’t have had, and was a key contributor to Washington’s comeback win.

– – –

This is cool from Mike Tomlin to DE CHASE YOUNG after the game.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin offered some praise for Football Team rookie defensive end Chase Young during Monday’s game, by saying Tomlin wouldn’t want to be able to draft a player as good as Young.

In footage shot by NFL Films, Tomlin approached Young on the field and told him that he would never want to pick high enough to take someone like Young.

“I don’t ever want to lose enough games to get a guy like you,” Tomlin told Young. “You’ve got to lose 14, 15 games to get a guy who looks like you.”

Washington took Young with the second overall pick in this year’s NFL draft, and that’s territory where Tomlin doesn’t tread. Since Tomlin became the Steelers’ head coach in 2007, the highest they’ve ever drafted was No. 10 overall in 2019, and to get that pick they had to trade up from No. 20. The Steelers just don’t draft high enough to get the truly elite prospects like Young, and Tomlin wants to keep it that way.

NFC SOUTH

TAMPA BAY

WR CHRIS GODWIN will no longer play with pins in his hands.  Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times:

The latest bye week in the NFL couldn’t come soon enough for a couple of Bucs starters.

Receiver Chris Godwin, who had surgery on a broken left index finger Oct. 27, underwent a procedure to have pins removed from that fracture Tuesday morning.

In addition, starting cornerback Jamel Dean, who missed the most recent game against the Chiefs due to a concussion, has cleared protocol and will practice today.

It’s welcome news for the Bucs, who have had a host of players struggling with minor injuries.

Godwin, who was injured making a touchdown reception in a win over the Las Vegas Raiders on Oct. 25, managed to play through that painful injury thanks to a customized splint and glove on his left hand. He missed the Giants game on Nov. 2 and has had 24 receptions for 283 yards and one touchdown in four games since.

AFC NORTH

CINCINNATI

This is the farewell tour for WR A.J. GREEN as a Bengal.  Paul Dehner of The Athletic explains the look of the Bengals receiving corps in 2021:

Wide receiver

• Projected two-deep: Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Josh Reynolds (UFA), Auden Tate, Mike Thomas, Day 3 slot WR pick

• Displaced: A.J. Green, John Ross, Alex Erickson

Analysis: The big move here will be the culmination of an incredible career in Cincinnati by Green. I’m not sure what his market will be, but I can’t imagine a return here being something either side is interested in at this point. He will move on, with the torch already passed to Higgins as WR1. The Bengals will be in the market for a dynamic third receiver. The good news is the draft and free agency are loaded with them. There will be expensive options like Will Fuller (who they liked in the draft five years ago and would fit the need for a deep threat), Kenny Golladay and Chris Godwin. I just don’t see them viewing this as a spot to focus their free-agent spending on as much or top draft capital unless they fall back into a position to draft Ja’Marr Chase from LSU. I see this as a second-wave free agency deal with familiarity and proven playmaking. Enter Josh Reynolds from the Rams. He’s a dynamic deep threat and Taylor knows what he can do. He’d be a great fit for the need in place and not cost near the coin of the big names. The rest falls into line for depth with Ross obviously moving on as his rookie deal expires hoping to replicate what Nelson Algoholor did in Vegas and realize his potential with a change of scenery.

CLEVELAND

If the Browns win out, can they catch the now-defeated Steelers?  Bryan DeArdo ofCBSSports.com:

Myles Garrett was definitely paying attention to Monday’s game between the Steelers and the Washington Football Team. After leading 14-0, the previously undefeated Steelers fell to the Football Team, 23-17. In the process, the Steelers failed to clinch a playoff berth while also giving away ground with their race with the Chiefs to win the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

Garrett, the Cleveland Browns star pass rusher, understands the significance of Pittsburgh’s loss as it relates to his team. While the Steelers still have a two-game lead over the Browns in the AFC North, Garrett clearly believes that the Steelers’ loss has given the 9-3 Browns a chance to win their first division title since 1989.

“Steelers might have opened the door,” Garrett write via Twitter while including an eyeball emoji.

While the Steelers may have opened the door, the Browns have some work to do before they could potentially kick the door down. Cleveland, who lost to Baltimore in Week 1 by a score of 38-6, will host the Ravens on Sunday. And while Baltimore is hovering just above .500 this season, the Ravens will be getting back Lamar Jackson, who will start Tuesday night’s game against the Cowboys after missing Baltimore’s Week 12 loss to the Steelers. Cleveland will then head to New York for consecutive games against the Giants (who have won four straight to move into first place in the NFC East) and winless Jets before hosting the Steelers. Pittsburgh will now begin preparations to face the 9-3 Bills in Buffalo on Sunday. The Steelers will then head to Cincinnati to take on the 2-9-1 Bengals before hosting the 8-4 Colts.

The Steelers won the first matchup against the Browns, jumping out to a 24-0 lead en route to a 38-7 victory. James Conner rushed for his third career 100-yard game against the Browns, while the Steelers’ defense took full advantage of a Browns’ offense that was playing without running back Nick Chubb. Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield and receiver Jarvis Landry were also playing through injuries, as both players were pulled well before the game’s final whistle.

While their defense is still a work in progress, the Browns’ offense has found a clear identity that’s based on the talents of Chubb and fellow running back Kareem Hunt. And while Cleveland’s offense is centered around its running backs, its success has helped open things up for Mayfield, who threw four first half touchdown passes in last Sunday’s 41-35 win over the Tennessee Titans.

The Steelers, meanwhile, are trying to get their running game going after gaining just 21 yards on 14 carries in Monday’s loss to Washington. Pittsburgh is also suffering from a major case of the drops, as the Steelers have dropped a league-high 31 passes. These issues largely contributed to the Steelers’ first loss and, if they don’t get fixed soon, it could cost Pittsburgh a division title if the Browns continue to win football games.

One thing that seems certain is that the Steelers-Browns Week 17 showdown will mean something for both teams, something that was not the case in recent season-finales between the two teams. That’s certainly a good thing for a rivalry that has been anything but one over the past two decades. And after a quarter century of futility, the Browns are on the doorstep of their first playoff berth since 2002. But the Browns are trying to enter the playoffs as a division champion, not merely as a wild card team.

“They need to reset their expectations,” Mayfield recently said to the team’s fan base, via the New York Times. “We all need to reset the standard, and that’s what I’ve been saying. There’s a new standard, there’s a foundation we have to continue to build on and improve. That’s just the way we need to handle things.”

As we see it, the Bills and Colts would both have to beat the Steelers.  If the two teams tied and split the season series after a Week 17 Cleveland win, Pittsburgh would still be 5-1 in the division (presuming they beat Cincinnati) and the Browns would be 4-2.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

Hall of Fame Coaches Tony Dungy and Jimmie Johnson are among those who will contribute to the Texans GM and coaching searches.  Nick Shook of NFL.com:

The Houston Texans’ next step as a franchise will involve a committee of legends from various arenas of sport.

Texans chairman and CEO Cal McNair announced in a letter sent to season-ticket holders the formation of the group with notable advisors: Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Tony Dungy and Jimmy Johnson, Texans Ring of Honor member Andre Johnson, San Antonio Spurs CEO R.C. Buford, and Fritz Pollard Alliance executive director Rod Graves. The team made such information public via its official site Tuesday.

The group of advisors will work with search firm Korn Ferry, and will also include McNair and Texans president Jamey Rootes.

Notably absent from the group was EVP of football operations Jack Easterby, who is serving as interim general manager following the firing of Bill O’Brien, but is not in the running for the job. In November, Rootes told season-ticket holders Easterby will not be the GM in 2021 or beyond, adding Easterby has no intentions of being the GM and “realizes we need personnel expertise to put together the best football team,” which Easterby does not possess.

This all-star committee of advisors will attempt to pair Houston with a promising candidate ready to take on the task of taking Houston from an organization that has a franchise quarterback but lacks long-term direction to one that has a firm roadmap for future success. Dungy and Jimmy Johnson provide coaching expertise, as evidenced by their Hall of Fame credentials, while Andre Johnson knows the franchise better than anyone from a player perspective, having played there from 2003-2014.

Buford has demonstrated his personnel expertise from decades spent with the Spurs, winning four titles from 2003-2014, and understands the Texas sporting scene having been in San Antonio since 1988. Graves understands Houston as a city as well as anyone, attending high school in Houston and college at Texas Tech in Lubbock before eventually serving as general manager of the Arizona Cardinals from 2002-2012, which included a run to Super Bowl XLIII.

Houston is still picking up the pieces from the O’Brien era, which ended unspectacularly with his in-season firing following a horrid start to the 2020 season. O’Brien’s termination left the Texans without a head coach and GM, roles filled by Romeo Crennel and Easterby in the interim.

Tuesday’s news simply confirms what we already knew: Big changes are ahead in Houston.

We doubt this committee would recommend that Jack Easterby stick around as GM.

THIS AND THAT

SECOND CONTRACTS FOR QBs

The CARSON WENTZ debacle has ramifications for other QBs who are hoping to get a second contract in the near future.  Charles Robinson of YahooSports.com:

When the 2020 season started for a refreshed Cleveland Browns regime, the coming design was fairly simple.

Establish a culture that doesn’t change every other year. Align the general manager, head coach and chief strategist. Draft smartly and be aggressive in free agency. Cut loose players who weren’t the right fits and get Odell Beckham Jr. to buy in. And of course, set up Baker Mayfield for his best possible success in his third season as the starting quarterback — then hammer out a contract extension in the summer of 2021.

The Browns are on track in all respects, but it’s now fair to wonder if the almost unbelievable implosion of the Philadelphia Eagles’ Carson Wentz is going to complicate the priority of that latter extension. And not just in Cleveland, either. The Browns are one of three franchises that will enter massive, future-altering contract talks with their quarterbacks this offseason. The other franchises are the Baltimore Ravens with Lamar Jackson and the Buffalo Bills with Josh Allen.

Mayfield, Jackson and Allen have all shown the most promise, albeit to varying degrees, while running the NFL gauntlet since the 2018 draft produced five first-round quarterbacks. As it stands this week, all three play for franchises that want to get new deals in the books this summer. It’s certainly more than the other two first-round quarterbacks — Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen — have going for them.

As much as the aforementioned trio has an argument for new deals, there has to be a creeping question in the coming talks. With high-end NFL quarterback extensions rocketing into unprecedented and potentially team-destroying territory if an evaluation is wrong, should franchises start pushing first-round quarterback extensions into the summer after Year 4, rather than the current standard of three seasons? Would waiting one more year make a difference and help a team avoid the next Wentz asteroid?

Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson deals have set market

“It’s a thought — I get it from an added evaluation standpoint — but with Carson, taking one more year would have made things worse [for the Eagles],” said an NFL source close to the Wentz negotiation. “His fourth season was good. [He] went to the postseason. Even though he got hurt in that [playoff] game, I think the contract after last season would have been the Deshaun Watson deal [four years and $160 million]. Imagine if what’s happening right now was happening in Year 1 of a Deshaun Watson deal.

“But if you’re not certain about the player, in that case, you wait and if they reinforce it with another season, you feel better about the money and guarantees.”

The source paused and then added: “But don’t forget that Carson was as good as certain when that deal got done. Nobody thought it was a bad deal. It still might not be in the long run, either. It’s not over yet.”

It’s a fair point that another year with Wentz might not have changed anything, but it also illustrates the quandary that teams face with massive QB extensions. In the cases where someone doesn’t live up to a deal — or in the worst-case scenario, falls apart after signing it — the new level of financial commitment and the guaranteed money can padlock a team into the tightest of spots. That’s what is happening with Wentz, who carries a dead-money commitment of $33.8 million next season if the Eagles were able to offload him on the trade market before another $15 million of his 2022 salary becomes guaranteed on the third day of the new league year (which still hasn’t been set in stone).

Essentially, the Eagles made one hell of a commitment to Wentz with the structure of his four-year, $128 million extension. Not just in dollars but in the triggers that guaranteed future salaries. And that’s why they’re paying the price now. That and Wentz nosediving this season with his poise and decision-making.

All of which turns the spotlight back to Mayfield, Jackson and Allen. Their teams better be absolutely certain of their evaluations before stepping into the steep extensions that all three could command.

Most comfortable to re-sign: Mayfield, Jackson or Allen?

Start with Jackson, who won the NFL’s MVP in 2019 and looked like a player whose overall dynamism might be worthy of grouping him into the Patrick Mahomes tier of quarterbacks. Heading into the final quarter of the 2020 season and with the Ravens limping with offensive line woes, Jackson’s peak from last season feels more distant than anyone expected. He’s still the Ravens’ unquestionable centerpiece, but he also has shown this season that the roster and maybe even scheme around him could use some tuning up to get the most out of him. That’s not the worst thing in the world for the franchise to grapple with, but Jackson’s next contract could command more than $40 million per year. If Baltimore is wrong about where he’s heading, a failure wouldn’t just be bad — it would be an extinction level event.

Now consider Mayfield, whose career has been a game-to-game roller coaster. He’s capable of being a highly effective passer who can pile up stats. But as this season has unfolded, it’s also clear that he’s at his best when the Browns have a dominant play-action run game working for them, not to mention one of the league’s best offensive line coaches in Bill Callahan setting the table in front of Mayfield. When parts of that line or run game have broken down, Mayfield has seen his play dip, much like the Los Angeles Rams have seen Jared Goff’s career mirror this same path.

The questions about Mayfield are pretty clear. Is he cutting the image of a $33 million to $35 million a year quarterback right now? And if he isn’t, is Cleveland willing to push off his extension for one more season to be sure about the track he’s on?

This, more than any other, feels like it could be a Carson Wentz situation waiting to happen. And it’s worth noting that Mayfield’s general manager, Andrew Berry, was inside the Eagles’ organization in 2019 and got to see Wentz firsthand. It would be absurd to believe Berry isn’t going to think long and hard about Mayfield and Wentz before a new deal gets done.

That leaves Allen, who has surprisingly surfaced as the quarterback from the 2018 class who has steadily and consistently made gains in each of his three seasons. In many ways, he looks like precisely what he was billed to be: a cannon-armed quarterback from a small college who had massive upside and could develop the most consistently under the best coaching of his football life. Not that Allen doesn’t come with some moments that showcase he’s still working to improve where he’s going. But if you’re looking for the quarterback who has pressed onward and upward without the rollback, it has been Allen, not Jackson or Mayfield.

Indeed, if it wasn’t Jackson’s absolute obliteration of the NFL in 2019, we’d be talking about Allen as the best quarterback from the 2018 class. That might make him the most easily extendable player this summer — although the Bills still have to be comfortable with Allen being at least a $35 million quarterback, which is what he will command.

The scariest part of all these deals remains the one that the Wentz source pointed out. Carson Wentz appeared to be worthy of the extension that he received. And one year later, it continued to look like the smart, cost-conscious move. Yet here we are in 2020, with Wentz facing the first healthy benching of his NFL career and a surefire contract extension morphing into an anchor. With quarterback salaries rising to new heights, extension timetables getting moved up and contract guarantees getting more burdensome by the year, the nightmare of miscalculation is staring into the face of every general manager, team president and franchise owner who sits down at the negotiation table.

Wentz has made that nightmare more real than ever. And for the teams that are about to sign the quarterbacks that they’re so certain about, it’s now impossible to ignore.

2021 DRAFT

A handy draft reference has been started at The Athletic by Ethan Douglas and Dane Brugler:

As the 2020 season winds down, many fans’ thoughts are shifting to draft mode. In order to get an idea of what the final draft order might look like, here at The Athletic we’ve  simulated the rest of the NFL season 1,000,000 times, predicting each remaining game using our Expected Power Ratings. This is the same methodology we’ve used to come up with our playoff projections.

Before we get into the charts,NFL draft expert Dane Brugler provides his thoughts on the draft order after Week 13.

Five Thoughts from Dane Brugler

1.  The Jets (0-12) had the victory on Sunday. And that win would have moved them to No. 2 in the order behind the Jaguars (1-11) at No. 1. But ineptitude prevailed, leaving the Jets winless and (rightfully) costing Gregg Williams his job as New York’s defensive coordinator.With four games left in the season, the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes are basically down to the Jets (74.0% chance to finish No. 1) and the Jaguars (25.9%). With the Seahawks (8-4), Rams (8-4), Browns (9-3) and Patriots (6-6) remaining on the schedule, the Jets are staring at a likely 0-16 season. Over the next four weeks, that 74.0% should only increase.

2. Assuming quarterbacks are drafted first and second to the Jets and Jaguars, the teams that fill out the next three spots in the top-five are going to be very interesting. Unsurprisingly, the Bengals (2-9-1) have the best odds to finish with the No. 3 pick. The Chargers (3-9) and Cowboys (3-8) are next – Los Angeles has a 22.1% chance to finish with a top-3 pick while Dallas isn’t too far behind at 20.1%.Oregon left tackle Penei Sewell has a good chance to be the first non-quarterback drafted and left tackle is a need for all three teams. Whoever finishes with the No. 3 pick will be hard-pressed to pass on Sewell.

3. There are four quarterback prospects with a realistic chance of being drafted in the top-10 picks. Assuming two are gone with the first two picks to the Jets and Jaguars, it will be interesting to see where the other teams (with a theoretical need at quarterback) finish. Among the Panthers (8.6 average draft spot), Broncos (9.5), Lions (9.8), Bears (12.5), Patriots (12.5) and 49ers (14.9), Carolina has the best odds to finish with a top-10 pick (73.6%).

4. Although the Lions (5-7) are currently projected to draft No. 12 overall, their average draft spot according to the simulations is 9.8 and they have the eighth best percentage chance (66.3%) to finish with a top-10 pick. Teams currently ahead of Detroit like the Broncos (59.0%), Falcons (60.6%) and Texans (49.8%) have a lower chance to finish in the top-10.

5. A few weeks ago, the Eagles (3-8-1) appeared to be the likely team to emerge from the NFC East with the best record and a playoff spot. Now? Philadelphia has an 88.6% chance to finish with a top-10 pick and the top-five (38.7% chance) is even attainable. It feels like change is inevitable for the Eagles, but will it be the quarterback? Head coach? Front office? All of the above?

The Tables

In table one, we’ve projected both the average draft spot for each team at the end of the season, as well as the most common draft order. The average draft spot is quite simple: for each team, we record their draft order at the end of each simulation, and then take the mean of these values. Let’s say the Kansas City Chiefs draft at 32 in one of our simulations, 30 in another, and 30 again in a third. This would give them an average draft spot of 30.66. Now, this isn’t a real draft spot. Nor is the order of the average draft spots necessarily even possible. For instance, if the Steelers and Chiefs are the two teams most likely to win the Super Bowl, the Steelers would have the lowest average draft spot while the Chiefs would have the 2nd lowest draft spot . But because both these teams are in the AFC, it isn’t possible for them to pick back to back at 31 and 32.

So this is where the most common draft order comes in. First, we identified the most common playoff and non-playoff teams*. Then, instead of averaging the draft spot for each team, we’ve just taken the draft order that appears most often in the simulations we ran which match the most common playoff and non-playoff teams.  The benefit to this method is that this is a real draft order — the exact order we show could actually happen. Both methods have their benefits, so we’ll let you choose which one is best for you.

*Note: The first version of this table did not include the step of identifying the most common playoff teams, leading to higher variance in the results.

It’s also important to point out that the numbers here represent the draft order based on the final standings, but do not include trades which have already happened. The Miami Dolphins currently own the Houston Texans first-round pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars own the Los Angeles Rams pick and the New York Jets own the Seattle Seahawks pick.

May the odds be ever in your team’s favor (for a top pick)!

2021 Projected Draft Order

Jets                 1.3

Jaguars           1.9

Bengals           4.1

Chargers         5.0

Cowboys         5.8

Eagles             7.1

Panthers         8.6

Broncos          9.5

Falcons          9.7

Lions              9.8

Texans         10.3  (Dolphins)

Bears           12.5

49ers            14.9

Patriots         15.6

Washington  16.0

Giants          16.2

Vikings         17.4

Cardinals       17.7

Raiders          19.3

Ravens          20.6

Dolphins        21.2

Buccaneers    22.5

Colts               22.6

Browns           23.4

Seahawks      23.9

Titans             24.6

Rams             25.4 (Jaguars)

Bills               25.8

Packers        27.7

Steelers        29.0

Chiefs           29.4

Saints            29.4