DETROIT

A signing from North of the Border.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Lions have added the CFL’s top defensive player from 2023 to their offseason roster.

The team announced the signing of defensive lineman Mathieu Betts on Tuesday. Betts was won the CFL’s most outstanding defensive player award last year.

Betts posted 42 tackles, 18 sacks, and four forced fumbles for the B.C. Lions during the 2023 season. The 18 sacks broke a league record for a Canadian-born player, who spent two seasons with Edmonton — the 2020 season was cancelled due to COVID — before moving on to the Lions for the last two seasons.

The Bears signed Betts as an undrafted free agent in 2019, but he failed to make the team out of training camp.

KANSAS CITY

QB PATRICK MAHOMES has his eye on Tom Brady.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Chiefs have created a dynasty with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, winning three Super Bowls in the last five seasons.

Kansas City now has a chance to be the first team to ever win three consecutive Lombardis after defeating the 49ers on Sunday. But when it comes to the totality of his career, Mahomes does have Tom Brady’s seven championships in the back of his mind to motivate him.

During a Monday interview on NFL Network, Mahomes was asked if he’s ever mentioned to Brady that he’s driven by matching or exceeding Brady’s championships.

“Yeah, I think it’s more just me trying to be the best I can be,” Mahomes said, via Andrew Siciliano of NFL Media. “I don’t want to have any regrets at the end of my career. And I know how great of an organization, how great of a coach, tight end, players that I have around me. And I don’t want to let that slide by. I want to make sure I maximize my opportunities.

“Obviously, the goal is always seven [rings] — it’s always to try and get as much as you can. And so, all I can do is try to maximize my opportunities every single day, continue to work to be better not only for myself, but for my team. And we’ll see what happens at the end of my career.”

In six seasons with Mahomes as a starter, the Chiefs’ floor for a season’s finish has been losing in overtime of the AFC Championship Game. Especially given what happened in 2023, there’s no reason to believe Kansas City is going to drop off any time soon.

LAS VEGAS

The Raiders have no interest in letting WR DAVANTE ADAMS play with his old pal QB AARON RODGERS.  Matt Ehalt of the New York Post:

The Rodgers-Adams combo seemingly won’t be coming to East Rutherford.

The Raiders have “zero” interest in trading star receiver Davante Adams despite recruiting efforts from former Packers teammate and current Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers, according to NFL Network.

The Raiders are trying to compete in 2024 in new full-time coach Antonio Pierce’s first full season.

“The Las Vegas Raiders are in win-now mode, not really in the business of giving away really good players,” Rapoport said. “My understanding is Aaron Rodgers has been trying to recruit Davante Adams to the Jets — remember, the Jets kinda made a run at him this past year, there was nothing there, expected to try this offseason again.

“From what I’m told, the Raiders want to win, believe they can and have zero plans to trade Davante Adams.”

The Jets tried to land Adams this past season but failed, and they have naturally been linked to Adams due to his relationship with Rodgers.

Rodgers already recruited former Packers like Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard, to the Jets but they are not in the same caliber of player as Adams.

The Jets’ offense needs some help, particularly at the receiver position, and Adams would give the Jets an elite combination alongside Garrett Wilson.

It takes two to tango, though, and the Raiders will not be tearing it down or rebuilding.

NFL Network reported Las Vegas will be “aggressive” in pursuing a franchise quarterback this offseason,. Trading away its top receiver would not help a new signal caller.

CINCINNATI

The Bengals have signaled a franchise tag for WR TEE HIGGINS.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins could become a free agent when the new league year starts in March, but the team has two ways to keep that from happening.

They could sign him to a long-term deal or they could use a franchise tag to keep him from hitting the open market and extending the time to negotiate a new deal until mid-July. If no deal came before that point, Higgins would have the choice of sitting out or playing the 2024 season with a guaranteed salary that is projected to be $20.7 million.

Paul Dehner of TheAthletic.com reports that the team is expected to use the latter option and apply the franchise tag to Higgins. He notes that the team has the cap space to carry that salary in the 2024 season and that Joe Burrow’s cap number remains relatively low in 2024 before jumping up by nearly $20 million in 2025.

The overall makeup of the wide receiver market might also make it a plus for Higgins to wait on signing a multi-year deal. With receivers like Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman Jr., and fellow Bengal Ja’Marr Chase closing in on new deals, Higgins could benefit from a reset market by moving for a longer deal at some point in the future.

Any tags must be issued by March 5, so there will be clarity on the Bengals’ plans in the near future.

PITTSBURGH

The MITCH TRUBISKY/MASON RUDOLPH Era could be over in Pittsburgh.  Scott Thompson of Fox News:

The Pittsburgh Steelers released three players on Monday following Super Bowl LVIII, and among them was quarterback Mitch Trubisky.

NFL Network reported both sides spoke about the current situation in Pittsburgh, and the 29-year-old quarterback opted to get a fresh start in free agency.

Offensive lineman Chukwuma Okorafor, who has been with the team for six seasons, was also released along with punter Pressley Harvin. The moves saved Pittsburgh close to $13 million in salary cap space heading into the offseason.

Most of that came from Trubisky, who was set to account for more than $7 million against the Steelers’ cap for the 2024 campaign. The Steelers ate $4.6 million in dead cap money, while saving $3 million.

Why is Trubisky’s release a relevant one? The first-round pick by the Chicago Bears was Kenny Pickett’s backup, so on the surface, it doesn’t seem like anything that would raise eyebrows.

However, with Mason Rudolph, the quarterback who started the Steelers’ playoff game against the Buffalo Bills this past season, set for free agency, Pickett will need a new backup.

Ryan Tannehill has been a name connected with the Steelers, as the veteran is also set for free agency after being benched in favor of rookie Will Levis with the Tennessee Titans this year.

Jacoby Brissett, Tyrod Taylor, Sam Darnold and many more quarterbacks will be available who could give Pickett competition for next season.

HOUSTON

TE DALTON SCHULTZ is not looking to leave the Texans.  Matt Galatzan of SI.com:

The Houston Texans have a laundry list of free agents hitting the open market this offseason, including a good number of key contributors to the defending AFC South Champion squad.

Among those key players are running back Devin Singletary, defensive linemen Sheldon Rankins, Derek Barnett and Jerry Hughes, corner Steven Nelson, linebacker Denzel Perryman, and receiver Noah Brown.

However, another huge contributor hitting the free agency happens to be one of C.J. Stroud’s favorite targets – tight end Dalton Schultz.

As of now, it is unclear whether or not the Texans will prioritize Schultz, or let him hit the open market and prioritize Brevin Jordan. However, it appears that Schultz would love to stay right where he is.

“Oh I would love to be in Houston,” Schultz told Sports Radio 610. “There’s no doubt about that. I loved my time. Again, special organization. Special quarterback. Love the scheme. Love the coaches. Loved everything about Houston.”

Coming off of his first season with Houston, Schultz played in 15 games in 2023, making 59 catches for 635 yards and five touchdowns.

Despite missing two games, he finished second on the team in catches and third on the team in both yards and receiving touchdowns, proving to be one of Stroud’s most reliable targets along the way.

As it stands, Schultz is currently projected to command a three-year deal in the neighborhood of $26.3 million and earn around $8.75 million APY.

And considering the Texans will have $59 million in cap room to fill out their roster – which ranks third in the NFL behind only the Commanders ($62 million) and Titans ($65 million) – retaining a proven commodity that has good chemistry with your up-and-coming star quarterback seems like a logical move.

INDIANAPOLIS

Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com with an update on QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON:

Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson’s return from the right shoulder injury that ended his rookie season has taken a big step forward.

Richardson’s agent Deiric Jackson posted video of Richardson throwing on Tuesday. Richardson is barefoot and doesn’t appear to be delivering the ball with full force, but it’s still a significant step for the 2023 first-round pick.

Richardson said in late December that he hoped to be throwing in about a month, so he would seem to be on pace with his recovery timeline.

The Colts won’t start their organized offseason workouts for some time and Richardson’s progress should have him on track to do at least some work with the team this spring. That would set him up for a full workload during training camp and a return to the starting role that the Colts had in mind when they made him the fourth overall pick last year.

NEW YORK JETS

At least they won’t look like the Same Old Jets this season.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Shortly after the 2023 NFL season came to an end on Sunday night, Jets owner Woody Johnson announced his team will have a new look for the 2024 season.

Johnson announced on social media that the team will be unveiling new uniforms, although it won’t be an entirely new look. The team wore alternate white jerseys that were a throwback to their uniforms from the 1980s and 1990s on opening night against the Bills and on other occasions last season and they will be making that their primary look for next season.

The team announced that they will be revealing green and black uniforms to accompany the white ones in April.

If all goes well for the Jets, the new look is accompanied by more success than the team experienced during the 2023 campaign.

THIS AND THAT

THE OT DECISION

Back in 2022, Brian Burke of ESPN.com said it really didn’t matter whe explains that Kyle Shanahan’s decision to take the ball was perfectly defensible.

Brian Burke

@bburkeESPN

Mar 30, 2022

I simulated the NFL’s new rules for postseason OT. Are they fair? Would a team prefer possession first or second? Should the team with possession second kick an XP or go for 2?…

Yes, these rules are fair. This is the fairest of any of the overtime rules we’ve seen. The team with 1st possession wins 50.29% of the time, assuming the team with 2nd possession doesn’t go for 2 if they match a TD. And yes, that precision is needed because…

If the team with 2nd possession goes for 2 subsequent to matching a TD, the team with 1st possession wins 50.19% of the time. Very slight difference.

Bottom line, based on these results, you’d want 1st possession and you’d want to go for 2 on a 2nd possession TD. But the…

…differences are so slight it would take eons of seasons to actually observe the advantage. I ran 120k sims for each strategy.

Some thoughts…

There are countervailing advantages for each team. The 1st possession team will have 1 extra drive any time there are an odd number of possessions.

The 2nd possession team has a second-mover advantage in that it knows what is needed to survive on its initial drive. And…

…it can mitigate the 1st possession team’s first-mover advantage by going for 2, but this effect is tiny.

The sim isn’t perfect, but it does a very good job of matching actual game win probabilities. And it’s especially useful for questions like this where this is no empirical examples on which to train a model.

There might be enough bias in the sim that these results are wrong, but the error would be so slight and we’re so close to the point of indifference, it might just be smart to go with the wind and let the opponent decide on possession.

Lastly, I’m not claiming this settles the question. It’s just one preliminary model. FWIW, the same model gives the old sudden death rules a 57% advantage to  1st possession. And it gives a 53% adv under the last OT rule. If anything it might be underselling 1st-poss a tiny bit.

2024 DRAFT

This is an opus from Dan Graziano of ESPN.com as he offers 80 key people or topics that will be big in the 2024 NFL:

Super Bowl LVIII was great, and we’ll look back on the Chiefs’ win as fun and historic. It’s good to look back.

But it’s also important to look forward. The 2024 NFL offseason has already begun. Contract decisions are being made, and draft evaluations are flowing. Preparation for the 2024 season is underway, and there is a lot that has to happen before the Chiefs and whomever they’re playing in their annual Thursday night season opener kick off in September.

So here’s a look at 80 of the most interesting people, places and things that will shape the next 12 months in the NFL. Whether it’s a free agent quarterback, rookie head coach, new owner or GM candidate, everyone on this list should occupy at least a portion of NFL fans’ attention over the coming year, especially this offseason. Who knows? Maybe one or more of them will help decide who wins next season’s Super Bowl. Or at least who loses to the Chiefs in it …

QUARTERBACKS

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Cousins’ contract voids March 12, which is after the deadline for teams to franchise players — meaning the Vikings can’t franchise him and he will be a free agent. The last time Cousins was a free agent (six years ago), he set out to get a fully guaranteed contract, and the Vikings gave him one. Will he have the same goal this time around? How much, if at all, will the fact that he turns 36 in August and is coming off a torn Achilles impact his value on the free agent market?

Cousins was playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL before he got hurt, and quality starting QBs don’t hit free agency very often. It sounds as if Minnesota would like to bring him back, but if he’s set on maxing out his market, it might not be able to get it done. And at some point, the Vikings know they need to think about a long-term solution at the position. There are some in the league who believe Minnesota could try to make a big trade up for a top-three pick in the draft. That would likely mean someone like LSU’s Jayden Daniels starts for them in 2024 and Cousins goes elsewhere. Atlanta, Las Vegas, Pittsburgh and other QB-needy teams are keeping a close eye on this situation.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The marriage between Mayfield and the Bucs was a productive one, and Tampa Bay will likely try to bring him back — even if that means a franchise tag. New Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen overlapped with Mayfield toward the tail end of the 2022 season when both were with the Rams. (Remember Baker with the Rams? I know, right?)

The question is, what’s the right deal for Mayfield? He signed a one-year deal worth up to $8.5 million last March and then threw 28 touchdown passes for the NFC South champs. Should he now make Daniel Jones money? Should he make more? How big of a bet will the Buccaneers want to place on the idea that Mayfield’s 2023 was a true renaissance rather than the latest peak in a peaks-and-valleys career?

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

The Bears seem unlikely to trade away the No. 1 pick for a second year in a row, and if that ends up being the case, Fields likely will be on a new team for 2024. He has shown enough as an NFL starter that the Bears should be able to get something of value — maybe a second-round pick? — but he’s also far from a finished product. He was 23rd in Total QBR (46.1) and 29th in completion percentage (61.4%) in 2023.

Which offensive coordinator can get the most out of Fields, and can he be a productive long-term starter for another team? Chicago’s looming decision will be a big offseason domino.

Caleb Williams, USC

The presumptive top pick in the 2024 NFL draft is the first superstar prospect of the NIL era. He’s the quarterback the Bears would likely draft to replace Fields if they do move on. But some are wondering whether Williams will use his unique financial leverage to help determine which team selects him. Will he be Chicago’s QB of the future? What about the Commanders, who just hired former USC assistant Kliff Kingsbury as their new offensive coordinator? Would he even consider sitting out — or at least threatening to sit out — a year to get what he wanted?

Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

Now 40 years old and coming off a torn Achilles, Rodgers is running low on time to make the Jets look good for trading for him. Everything this organization does is built around Rodgers now. He has to bounce back from his lost first Jets season and deliver at his former MVP levels.

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

He was good enough in his first 10 years in the NFL that he’ll surely get another chance to prove he can start for a team, once the Broncos release him from his contract despite owing him a guaranteed $39 million. Wilson was benched late in the 2023 season and now appears headed toward free agency — just two years after Denver traded a package of picks and players for him and then signed him to a five-year extension that hasn’t even begun yet. If Wilson has a second act coming, he’s running out of time to show it.

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

Smith, who took over as Seattle’s starter after Wilson went to Denver, ranks 11th in Total QBR (61.3), fourth in completion percentage (67.4%) and sixth in touchdown passes (50) over the past two seasons. He’s signed for a remarkably reasonable $22.3 million for 2024, but as of right now, none of that money is guaranteed.

What’s interesting about Smith’s deal is that his $12.7 million base salary becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day after the Super Bowl — as in, this Friday. The rest of his 2024 money is in a $9.6 million roster bonus that’s due on the fifth day of the new league year. So if the Seahawks did decide to go a different route at quarterback, they could theoretically move on, either this week or before March 18.

Given the way Smith has performed since becoming the starter two years ago, that doesn’t seem likely. But he is 33 and likely not the long-term answer there. Seattle is in a transition period post-Pete Carroll and knows it needs to get younger at QB at some point soon. Smith would be an intriguing addition to the offseason quarterback market. If the Seahawks were to cut him before the $12.7 million guarantee kicks in, he’d be free to sign with any team he wanted and would not have to wait for the start of free agency.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Prescott’s 2024 cap number is $59.455 million. For perspective, the highest cap number in the NFL this past season was Patrick Mahomes’ $37.1 million. Dallas could knock down Prescott’s number with an extension, but it was far from easy to get him to agree to an extension the last time around, when the two sides negotiated in 2021. And this time, he has even more leverage. With one year left on his current deal, a no-trade clause, and a clause that prohibits the Cowboys from using the franchise or transition tags on him, Prescott can demand whatever he wants.

The Cowboys can save around $18 million in cap space by simply converting the eligible portion of Prescott’s 2024 salary to a signing bonus. But to save any more, they’d have to add years to the deal, and that would require his cooperation. Stay tuned on this one, and don’t assume it’s as easy as “They need to pay Dak.” There’s a lot more to it than that.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Tagovailoa will make $23.171 million this season on his fifth-year option. The question is whether the Dolphins want to extend him beyond that, and if so, how would — and should — that deal look. Tagovailoa had multiple stints in the concussion protocol in 2022, but he stayed healthy in 2023 and completed nearly 70% of his passes for the prolific Miami offense.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

With one year and $27.3 million left on his contract, Goff is surely in line for an extension. He’s not even 30 yet and has established himself as the Lions’ franchise QB, bringing Detroit to the NFC Championship Game. But can he get a top-of-market deal in the Joe Burrow/Justin Herbert/Lamar Jackson/Jalen Hurts range, or will his deal establish a new upper-middle class of QB contracts?

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence, the 2021 first overall pick, is eligible for an extension this offseason for the first time. Will he follow the trend of young QBs breaking the bank and resetting the market after their third season? With the way the Jaguars’ season ended — a massive collapse after starting 8-3 — he might be better off waiting until next offseason to sign his new deal. The Jaguars can pick up his fifth-year option for 2025 to keep him under contract for at least two more seasons.

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Love is also in line for an extension, and the Packers should reward him after he did them a massive favor with the terrible one-year extension he accepted last offseason. He’s now established as the starter in Green Bay, but he is extension eligible with only one year as a starter under his belt (as opposed to Lawrence’s three), so his deal should be interesting to watch.

Daniel Jones, New York Giants

The extension the Giants did with Jones last March — when they were desperate to avoid having to franchise-tag him and lose running back Saquon Barkley as a result — includes $35.5 million in fully guaranteed money for 2024. But Jones struggled early in the season, throwing two touchdown passes and six interceptions over six games before tearing his right ACL. The Giants can get out of the deal this time next year if they want, but Jones should get one more shot to prove he can be the same quarterback who landed that deal after a strong (and healthy) 2022.

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers’ 2022 first-round pick finished 2023 as a healthy backup to Mason Rudolph during Pittsburgh’s surprise run to the playoffs. That doesn’t bode super well for his chances of being the Steelers’ franchise quarterback. What becomes of Pickett if the Steelers bring in someone like Russell Wilson or Justin Fields?

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

His flop of a rookie season — combined with C.J. Stroud’s dazzling rookie success — means Young now has to chase the guy who was picked right behind him in last year’s draft. He will be working with a new coaching staff to try to prove Carolina didn’t blow the No. 1 pick. Young was 29th in Total QBR this past season (33.4), and he threw 11 touchdown passes to 10 interceptions over 16 games for the league’s worst team.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Four years ago, when the 49ers lost Super Bowl LIV to the Chiefs, the Niners had questions about whether Jimmy Garoppolo was the quarterback to get them where they needed to go. The Niners do not seem to have those questions about Purdy, who will be a monumental steal for them on a $985,000 salary next season. They aren’t even allowed, under collective bargaining agreement rules, to extend or alter his contract until after the 2024 season.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow will be coming back from a season-ending injury to the thumb on his throwing hand, and he’ll have a new offensive coordinator for the first time in his career after Brian Callahan left to be the Titans’ head coach. Plus, we don’t know whether the Bengals will be able to keep his stellar receiver group together much longer.

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

Three years and $138 million in fully guaranteed salary remain on his contract, so Watson is not going anywhere. But he’ll have to show he’s worth it after the offense functioned better in five regular-season games with Joe Flacco as his replacement after Watson had a season-ending shoulder injury.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Remember this guy? The rookie looked like he was going to be a lot of fun in the Colts’ offense before his own season-ending shoulder injury. Unfortunately, the Colts’ young starter lost a year of development they were hoping he’d get with some on-the-job training. How far behind is he now, and can he have a Stroud-like impact coming off the injury?

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

At this point, how much more is there to say about Mahomes? He’s a three-time Super Bowl MVP at 28 years old! The story of Mahomes is more about the next 12 years. How many more titles can he win? Where will he rank among the all-time greats?

As for the next 12 months, though, a Chiefs fan has to be over the moon hearing Mahomes talk at his postgame Super Bowl news conference about the work he’s planning to do this offseason to make his young wide receivers better.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

The two-time MVP still has that massive postseason hurdle to clear. Will he elevate even further in his second year in Todd Monken’s offense? Or will he and the Ravens look back on this season’s missed opportunity as their best chance to win it all?

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

The expectation in Houston is that what happened this season was real and that Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans will keep the Texans in playoff contention. What will the Offensive Rookie of the Year do for an encore in 2024?

Mac Jones, New England Patriots

It seems like there’s a better chance of the Patriots using me at quarterback next season than them picking up Jones’ 2025 fifth-year option. Will the Pats use the No. 3 pick to find his replacement? And if so, can he go somewhere else and resurrect his career before it’s too late? Jones ranked 28th in QBR (36.7) and was benched multiple times for Bailey Zappe in 2023.

INTERESTING FREE AGENTS

Chris Jones, DT, Kansas City Chiefs

It would cost the Chiefs more than $32 million to franchise-tag Jones this year, which would significantly hurt their ability to do basically anything else this offseason. They need to bring in offensive tackles, and they have other players on defense to sign. They should probably spend to sign a wide receiver one of these days, too.

Jones and the Chiefs couldn’t reach an extension agreement last offseason, ultimately settling for a one-year deal. And with that $32 million franchise tag number as a starting point, the two sides probably aren’t going to see eye to eye this time around, either. Jones would have a massive free agent market.

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Higgins is a free agent, but with teammate Ja’Marr Chase extension eligible for the first time, the Bengals have some decisions to make over the next few months. We can’t rule out a franchise tag for Higgins, who could command No. 1 WR money from another team if he hits the market. Higgins caught 42 passes for 656 yards and five touchdowns in 2023.

Josh Allen, OLB, Jacksonville Jaguars

There were a couple of cases of edge rushers not getting extensions last offseason that surprised people around the league, but Allen’s might be the most surprising. He’s known as a great locker room guy, a player who represents the team in the community in an exemplary way and obviously a high-impact player who just posted a career-high 17.5 sacks this past season. You would think the Jaguars would prioritize keeping their 26-year-old star on a long-term deal. But you would have thought that a year ago, too, so this is worth keeping an eye on.

Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

The final two years of Henry’s contract void 23 days before the start of the next league year (which is Monday), making him a free agent. The Titans will carry just under $5 million in dead money on next year’s cap from Henry’s last contract. And while it’s possible they could try to bring him back, his final game in Nashville this season was treated by him, the fans and the team as a farewell.

Henry’s free agency case will be interesting. He just turned 30, and teams don’t want to pay running backs who are even in their late 20s. But Henry is also a different sort of player, and his unique powerful style could make him more attractive on the market than your standard running back.

Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants

Speaking of running backs who could be free agents, Barkley is up again this year. And although the Giants could easily franchise-tag him for the second year in a row for about $12 million, it’s also possible the two sides could go their separate ways if they once again can’t agree on the parameters of a long-term extension. Barkley ran for 962 yards and six scores in 2023.

Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

Ekeler didn’t have the same kind of year Henry or even Barkley had. He turns 29 in May, and although he has been an outspoken advocate for running back contracts, he doesn’t seem like the guy who’s most likely to get a good one this offseason.

RECEIVERS WITH UNCERTAIN FUTURES

Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

Will the Jets make a push to reunite Adams with Rodgers? Will Antonio Pierce’s promotion to permanent head coach make Adams more interested in staying in Vegas? It’s fair to say Adams’ Raiders stint hasn’t gone the way he expected, but he has 203 catches for 2,660 yards and 22 TDs over his two seasons there. He’d be a fascinating addition to the star-studded offseason wide receiver market if the Raiders decide to trade him.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills

Is he happy in Buffalo? Is he unhappy in Buffalo? The answer never seems clear these days. So Diggs is yet another star veteran wideout who could potentially be on the move. After a hot start to 2023, he failed to break 100 receiving yards in any of his final 14 games, including the playoffs.

EXTENSION CANDIDATES TO WATCH

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys

The wide receiver market took something of a year off in 2023, and Lamb was among those who were extension eligible but didn’t get a new deal. The Cowboys could save a lot of cap space with an extension that would knock down his 2024 cap number from where it is now: $17.991 million. Even though they have extensions for Prescott and defensive superstar Micah Parsons to address, expect them to get something done with their star wideout. Lamb is coming off a huge season that included 1,749 yards and 12 TD catches.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers

After posting a career-high 1,342 receiving yards in 2023, Aiyuk is scheduled to earn $14.124 million on his fifth-year option in 2024. He’ll surely be looking for an extension, but the Niners have a lot of salary cap work to do. How long can they keep the gang together?

OTHER PLAYERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Kelce will stay in the limelight — perhaps as much as any other player in the league — this offseason because of his newfound crossover stardom as boyfriend to the most famous woman in the world. He has two years and about $30 million left on his contract, so it doesn’t seem he’s going anywhere any time soon.

Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

He’s 28, coming off a major season-ending knee injury and scheduled to earn $12 million in non-guaranteed money in the final year of his contract. Yes, he’s an extension candidate, but he’s also a potential cap casualty. Either way, Chubb could be the latest bellwether of the frustrating running back market.

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams

An out-of-nowhere dazzler of a season from this fifth-round rookie (1,486 yards) helped the Rams make the playoffs in what should have been their rebuilding season. With nearly $80 million in dead money off their books for 2024, the Rams should be able to add more help this offseason. But Nacua and his fellow 2023 draft classmates are the key to determining whether the Rams can make a seamless transition into their next competitive era and make life difficult on the defending conference champion 49ers in their division.

Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams

Donald turns 33 in May and is heading into the final year of his contract. He was as disruptive as ever in 2023, but with all he has accomplished, it’s fair to wonder how much longer he’ll want to play.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

Before some late-season injuries cost him time, Hill was a legitimate candidate to break the single-season receiving yards record and maybe even win league MVP. So he obviously shows no signs of slowing down. But with his 30th birthday coming up March 1 and his cap number scheduled to jump from about $13 million to about $30 million, you wonder what might happen once he does start showing those signs. The Dolphins seem like a team in a tight win-now window with the way their contracts look.

COACHES AND COORDINATORS

Bill Belichick

Belichick’s presence will loom over every hot-seat coaching situation all season, as he’s just 14 wins behind Don Shula for the most in NFL history (sitting at 333, including playoffs). But he’ll also be 73 years old when the 2025 season starts, and only one team expressed serious interest in him this offseason after the Patriots let him go. Could Belichick’s coaching days be done?

Andy Reid

He put the retirement rumors to bed after the Super Bowl, but Reid will be looking for a new contract and a raise that brings his salary in line with that of the other top coaches in the league. How can anyone argue the Chiefs coach hasn’t earned it?

Jim Harbaugh

A lot is being made of the roster and cap work the Chargers need to do, as well as how much their roster will change between now and next season. But you don’t hire Harbaugh — fresh off a national championship at Michigan — to wait around and rebuild. Don’t be surprised if he has them contending for the postseason right away, even if it is fair to expect them to be better in 2025 than 2024.

Mike McCarthy

He didn’t get fired, but he didn’t get an extension, either. So McCarthy goes into the final year of his contract with all the pressure that comes with being the Cowboys coach and then some. Every loss is going to make somebody whisper something about Belichick.

Nick Sirianni

Siriani didn’t get fired, either, and it would have been weird to fire the Philadelphia coach a year after he coached in the Super Bowl. But after the Eagles stumbled down the stretch and lost in the wild-card round, they overhauled the coaching staff around him, and they’ll have new coordinators for the second year in a row. If 2024 goes badly, it’s tough to see Sirianni still being there in 2025.

Sean McDermott

I never got the sense that McDermott was actually on as “hot” a seat as some on the outside seemed to think. McDermott is part of the organizational fabric in Buffalo, and ownership loves the culture he has built there. But the Bills do have a project ahead of them. They need to get younger on defense. They need to get better at wide receiver. And one of these years, McDermott and quarterback Josh Allen are going to have to show they can get over the hump and into the Super Bowl.

Matt Eberflus

The Bears saving Eberflus’ job with a strong finish was a surprise story of the season’s second half. Can they build on it? And who will be playing quarterback while they try?

DeMeco Ryans

What will the Houston coach do for an encore? The Texans were one of the coolest stories of 2023, and they have cap space and a star QB on a rookie deal. Will they build around Stroud the way the Bengals did around Burrow in his second year? Can Ryans manage the higher expectations that are sure to accompany Houston’s 2024 campaign?

Sean Payton

With his first year in Denver (and apparently Russell Wilson) behind him, the pressure will be on Payton to find a quarterback solution and return the Broncos to the playoffs this coming season. The team traded a first-round pick to the Saints for him last January but finished below .500 at 8-9.

Mike Tomlin

Having somehow, once again, avoided his first losing season as an NFL head coach, Tomlin is still feeling the heat from the Steelers’ recent lack of postseason success. Like a lot of teams, Pittsburgh needs to figure out the quarterback position, which will go a long way toward deciding whether it can move up from good to great.

Kyle Shanahan

Shanahan is back to work to try to finally break through and win the 49ers’ first Super Bowl title in nearly 30 years. Getting as close as he got Sunday has to be painful, but Shanahan is only 44, and his San Francisco teams have been consistent contenders when healthy. Keep the faith.

Jerod Mayo

Nobody has a tougher act to follow than Mayo, who will be the first Patriots head coach other than Belichick this century. The team’s linebackers coach since 2019, Mayo has been groomed for the opportunity, but there’s a lot of work to do to return this roster to contention.

Mike Macdonald

The Seahawks moved on from Carroll, who was the oldest coach in the league, to Macdonald, who at 36 will be the youngest. Macdonald was seen as a budding star for his work as the Ravens’ defensive coordinator, and he will be tasked with getting Seattle back on track.

Dan Quinn

Quinn begins a second head-coaching stint, this time in Washington, where new ownership is hoping he can help rejuvenate a once-proud franchise that fell into disrepair under the previous owner. But the Commanders need a quarterback first and foremost.

Ben Johnson

For two years, Johnson has been supposedly the hottest name on the coaching circuit. And for two years, the Lions’ offensive coordinator hasn’t gotten one of the open jobs. There’s no reason to think the Lions won’t stay in contention and keep his name on teams’ lists. But sometimes these windows close more quickly than you’d think. You have to wonder whether Johnson could end up regretting the way things went for him this January.

Todd Monken

Monken’s first year as the Ravens’ offensive coordinator was a smashing success, as Baltimore finished fourth in points per game (28.4). But the Ravens will need to retool at wide receiver and running back in advance of next season. (They have a couple of starting offensive linemen who are free agents, too.)

All eyes will be on the personnel moves Baltimore makes on offense and what Monken and Jackson can do next year to elevate the offense even further.

Joe Brady

After the midseason firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, Brady took over and things stabilized on offense in Buffalo. The question isn’t whether Brady can keep it going now that he has the permanent job. It’s whether the Bills’ offense can get back to its old, explosive self. They played it pretty safe down the stretch in 2023. Some fresh personnel at wide receiver could help, especially with Gabe Davis entering free agency.

Arthur Smith

He was a very successful offensive coordinator in Tennessee before his three-year head-coaching stint in Atlanta. Now he’s back in the coordinator role in Pittsburgh, where a decision looms on quarterback. Can he help make this offense more efficient?

Bobby Slowik

Slowik got head-coaching interviews after just one season as the offensive coordinator in Houston. That’s how well things went there in Stroud’s rookie year — and how highly regarded this former Shanahan assistant is around the NFL. Expect Slowik to be among the top head-coaching candidates in next year’s cycle.

Brian Flores

Not even a stellar season as the Vikings’ defensive coordinator could unlock head-coaching interviews for Flores, whose still-pending lawsuit against the NFL over its minority hiring practices would seem to be an impediment. It’s worth noting, however, that this year represented a step forward for the NFL in terms of hiring minority head coaches, and that was one of Flores’ stated goals when he sued.

Steve Wilks

The former Cardinals and Panthers head coach had an up-and-down year as the 49ers’ defensive coordinator. The defense played well in the Super Bowl before Mahomes wore it down. If Wilks can stabilize San Francisco’s defense in his second season, he could be back in the mix for head-coaching jobs before long.

Kliff Kingsbury

Whether the Commanders can reunite Kingsbury — who was a USC assistant last season — with Caleb Williams remains to be seen. Regardless, Kingsbury has a lot to prove as a coordinator in the NFL and will be under great pressure to establish and run Quinn’s offense in Washington after being hired as the Commanders’ offensive coordinator.

Shane Waldron

Will he be coaching up Justin Fields? Caleb Williams? Someone else? The Bears’ new offensive coordinator is likely to have a blank slate and a No. 1 pick at quarterback to work with as he tries to improve this unit. A big season in Chicago could jump Waldron into the head-coaching interview cycle next winter.

Anthony Weaver

One of the Ravens’ defensive coaches (along with Macdonald) who have left for other jobs, Weaver becomes the Dolphins’ new defensive coordinator — a job that hasn’t gone well for the past couple of coaches who’ve held it. Weaver is well regarded, and he brings experience to the job as a former Texans defensive coordinator. Can he turn the Dolphins’ defense into a championship-caliber unit to keep up with the team’s offense?

Jeff Hafley

Matt LaFleur’s Packers tenure has been impressive, and the Green Bay coach might have done his best job yet in Love’s first season as the starting quarterback. But the Packers haven’t been able to count on consistent defense since LaFleur got there, so he has moved on from Joe Barry to former Boston College coach Hafley. Is this the coach to finally get it right?

Aaron Glenn

Glenn got some love on the interview circuit and was named the top coordinator in the league in a player survey conducted by the NFLPA. But the Lions now need to help Glenn with a strong offseason in which they rebuild the secondary and add to the pass rush.

OWNERS

Josh Harris

The Commanders’ new owner has a stadium situation to address, but in the short term, all eyes will be on how involved he makes himself in the day-to-day football decisions. It’s doubtful Adam Peters would have left San Francisco for a GM job if he thought the owner would meddle, but you really never know about these things until you experience them firsthand. When George Steinbrenner bought the Yankees, he promised he’d “stick to building ships.”

Jerry Jones

The Cowboys’ offseason always draws attention, but this one will be especially fascinating. With the help of son Stephen and his trusted front office advisers, Jones has in recent years resisted some impulses and taken a longer-range view of the team. Right or wrong, there’s an external perception that Jones is desperate to win another Super Bowl sooner rather than later. Will we see that desperation reflected in a hyper-aggressive Dallas offseason? Or is it just one more thing about the Cowboys that seems truer to people on the outside than it does inside the building?

Jody Allen

When Paul Allen died in 2018 and his sister took over the Seahawks, there was a great deal of belief that the team would be sold. It has not been yet — but it could be soon.

There is a stipulation in the agreement the team reached to secure funding for its current stadium that states that selling the team before May 2, 2024, would result in Paul Allen or his estate having to give 10% of the sale price to the state of Washington. As of May 2, the Seahawks can be sold with the Allen estate pocketing 100% of the sale price as opposed to 90%. The Commanders recently sold for $6.05 billion. Ten percent of that is $605 million, and that kind of money seems likely to make it worth waiting a few years to sell.

But with the May date approaching, don’t be surprised if the Seahawks get sold sometime in the coming year or two.

Mark Davis

Davis gave Pierce the head-coaching job in part because the players seemed to demand it, and he hired Tom Telesco as GM to balance out Pierce’s inexperience. Davis’ last coach/GM hires didn’t work out, and he has to get this right now. It’s worth keeping an eye on his effort to sell a piece of his team to Tom Brady — an effort several other team owners have pushed back on. Which leads me to this next figure …

Tom Brady

It sounds as if Brady is planning to actually go through with becoming a broadcaster. Will he also succeed in buying a piece of the Raiders from Davis? And if so, wouldn’t it be weird for him to broadcast a Raiders game? Brady remains a fascinating NFL figure even in retirement.

TEAM AND LEAGUE EXECUTIVES

Lloyd Howell

The new executive director of the NFL Players Association, Howell took over for DeMaurice Smith eight months ago. He has kept a low profile, opting to learn what he needs to know as an outsider coming into football from the corporate world. But in his tour of the league and his meetings at team facilities, Howell estimates that he met with about 20 team owners.

His background, coupled with the fact that the current CBA isn’t up for six more years, makes it likely that Howell was hired to focus on expanding financial opportunities for players and the NFLPA’s war chest. He’s watching the Brady/Raiders situation very closely, listening to owners’ reasons for opposing it and wondering what it could mean for the ability of players to obtain equity in the league and/or its teams moving forward. Howell is a fascinating person to watch in the NFL in the coming years.

Dawn Aponte

A high-ranking official in the NFL league office as the chief football administrative officer, Aponte interviewed for the Chargers GM job that ultimately went to Joe Hortiz. She has a front office background, having worked for the Browns and the Dolphins before her time in the league office.

Along with Browns assistant GM Catherine Raiche, who interviewed two years ago for the Vikings GM job that went to Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, Aponte represents the vanguard of candidates to — at some point in the near future — become the league’s first woman GM since Susan Tose Spencer held that title for the Eagles in the early 1980s.

Eliot Wolf

A former Packers and Browns executive, Wolf has worked in a quiet but significant role in New England the past few years and seems to have ascended to the top spot in the Patriots’ personnel department in the wake of them moving on from Belichick. It’s likely to be a more collaborative effort than it was when Belichick had final say on everything, but it looks as if Wolf will function as the de facto GM even if he doesn’t get the title.

What does the next era of Patriots football look like? And can it have even one-sixth of the success the previous one did?

Nick Caserio

The Texans project to have about $57 million in salary cap space this year after making the playoffs in 2023 with a rookie coach and rookie quarterback. What will GM Caserio do to maximize the early, cheap years of Stroud’s career? At the outset of Burrow’s time in Cincinnati, the historically thrifty Bengals hit free agency hard and quickly built up a team that reached the Super Bowl in Burrow’s second season. Will Houston follow that example? Does the Texans’ roster even need that much help?

Ran Carthon

It appears the Titans moved on from coach Mike Vrabel to give GM Carthon a greater degree of control. With Brian Callahan on board as coach and a rebuild on tap, can Carthon build Tennessee back into a winner?

Ryan Poles

Poles has the first pick in the draft for the second year in a row. Last year, he traded it and stuck with Fields. What he does with it this year could help shape the entire NFL offseason. The Bears are the league’s most fascinating team as the offseason opens, and Poles has a lot of eyes on him.

PLACES AND THINGS TO WATCH

The kickoff

Ironically, in the week in which legendary returner Devin Hester was elected to the Hall of Fame, Sunday’s Super Bowl was the first in which not one of the kickoffs was returned. A new rule this season that placed the ball at the 25-yard line if the player made a fair catch anywhere between the 25 and the end zone has resulted in a dramatic drop in kick returns.

The NFL says its research still shows the kick return to be the highest injury-rate play, and league officials have said they will continue to work to find ways to make the play safer this offseason, with the goal of still keeping it in the game and making it exciting. But at some point you wonder whether those goals are reconcilable and whether we’re headed to an ending where the kickoff goes away entirely and is replaced with something else.

Brazil

The NFL has announced it will hold its first game in Brazil in Week 1 of the 2024 season. As the league looks to expand its international presence beyond London, Germany and Mexico, all eyes will be on how things go here. Don’t for one second imagine Brazil will be the last new country the league tries in its ongoing efforts at international audience expansion.

Las Vegas

Once unimaginable as a place to house an NFL team or host the league’s biggest event, Vegas just pulled off a smooth and successful Super Bowl week. And there’s a strong chance it will remain in the rotation. In the meantime, can Pierce revive the team that plays its home games there and help build a winner in the league’s newest market?

Jacksonville, Florida

This looms as a big year for negotiations between the city and the Jaguars on a potential new stadium. There are plans, renderings and the skeleton of an agreement, but to this point nothing is done. When and if it does get done, it’ll be a big relief to the local fans of a team that’s already playing two games a season in London and whose owner has long been believed to want to own an NFL team across the pond.

New Orleans

Next year’s Super Bowl returns to the Big Easy for the first time since 2013, which you might remember as the one in which the lights went out in the third quarter. That was a shame, because no city does the Super Bowl better than New Orleans, and stadium concerns were part of the reason it fell out of the rotation for a little while. Here’s hoping it’s not another 12 years until it’s back there again.