NFC NORTH

DETROIT

QB MATTHEW STAFFORD has reached out to his replacement, QB JARED GOFF.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

After the Lions agreed to trade Matthew Stafford to the Rams for Jared Goff and three draft picks, Stafford reached out to Goff to wish him well in Detroit.

Stafford told Mitch Albom that he thinks highly of Goff and hopes he’ll have success in Detroit.

“I shot him a text. We texted a little bit. Just told him that I know going out there I’ve got big shoes to fill,” Stafford said. “It’s not lost on me that he was in the Super Bowl just a few years ago. He’s a really good player in his own right. I just wanted to let him know that I appreciate him as a player and obviously, to reach out to me if there was anything he needed when it comes to Detroit, just as far as advice or places to stay, anything. I know that he feels that he can reach out to me, and I know I can reach out to him with anything in L.A. too. So it’s been good.”

Stafford will officially become a Ram, and Goff will officially become a Lion, when the new league year starts on March 17.

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

Albert Breer of SI.com thinks about the Falcons and their contingent at the Pro Day of QB TREVOR LAWRENCE.

The Falcons had a very strong presence at Lawrence’s Pro Day. And it wasn’t just the number there—a league-high four—it was who made the trip. The Atlanta traveling party included coach Arthur Smith, GM Terry Fontenot, offensive coordinator Dave Ragone, and VP of player personnel Kyle Smith, where most teams sent college scouting directors, national scouts or area scouts. So why would they go, knowing Lawrence ain’t making it to their pick at 4? Well, there’s always the just-in-case element here. But moreso, it’s what another scout offered as a reason. He said that he wanted to be able to see Lawrence in person to help him really understand the difference between him, and Wilson, Fields, and Lance, so if his team were to decide to take a quarterback (this team would be one that would look at it), he had proper context for the situation. Which tells you Atlanta is probably seeking the same sort of context. Yes, owner Arthur Blank has said Matt Ryan will be on the roster next year. But no, he didn’t say it wouldn’t be with his heir apparent there too, competing for playing time. So put the Falcons square in play for a quarterback at 4.

It probably didn’t hurt that one can drive from Flowery Branch to Clemson in about 90 minutes.  We’d really be impressed if the Lawrence Pro Day was in Oregon or Utah.

TAMPA BAY

Albert Breer of SI.com with a dive into Todd Bowles and the stopping of the unstoppable.  It’s longer than what you see below as we edited out some talk of specific plays in the game:

In Mahomes’s previous eight postseason starts, the Chiefs had scored 31, 31, 51, 35, 31, 22, and 38 points—and the 22 came in the Divisional Round win over Cleveland, when Chad Henne finished while Mahomes was in concussion protocol. Holding any team in a Super Bowl to three field goals is a major accomplishment—in the previous 54 Super Bowls, only two teams had failed to score a touchdown. Doing it against Mahomes and the Chiefs? Mind-blowing.

And the really wild thing about the plan that got it done was how it made the impossible task of slowing Andy Reid’s offensive juggernaut down somehow, in application, fairly rudimentary. Which, as those around Bowles know, is sort of the 57-year-old’s specialty.

“He’s a brilliant mind, and he can teach it and make it simple,” says Arians, who’s known Bowles since coaching him as a player in the mid-1980s at Temple. “I mean, he can teach it and make it so simple for the players. There’s a lot of guys that know the game, but can’t teach it.”

Super Bowl Sunday would hold up as a shining example that Bowles can, and at a higher level than most. And as we’ll explain, there was a lot more than an afternoon’s work at play in what Bowles put together for the Chiefs.

– – –

Todd Bowles’s story begins with who he is—and how those around him have known for a very long time how capable he was of coaching the game he did at Raymond James Stadium eight days ago. And that starts with Arians, and where he was 25 months ago in mulling a comeback to coaching after missing it badly in his year away—and how, when decision time approached, he was tracking his old DC from Arizona.

Bowles had just been fired after four years as the Jets head coach, and was in demand.

“He had a bunch of offers,” Arians says. “And it was really, really important for me, if I was getting back in, to have the best—and that’s him. I’m not sure I would’ve done it without him and Byron [Leftwich]. He was a huge part of it. It’s one of those situations where I never even have to go down the hall. I’ll just say, Hey, what do you think? And I know our defense is in great hands.”

Just as Arians knew, players did too. Ndamukong Suh was one of them, for sure. Bowles almost got him to join the Jets in 2018, before Suh decided he didn’t want to go to a place in the midst of a rebuild with a rookie quarterback (he chose the Rams instead). A free agent again in 2019, Suh liked Arians’s mindset, and the roster GM Jason Licht had built in Tampa. But the real draw was the chance to see through all the reasons he once considered the Jets—a chance to play for Bowles.

“It was just the way he’s always carried himself,” Suh says. “I got to meet him a long, long time ago when he was in Arizona. There was a guy named Jim Washburn that I’m super close with and was my coach in Detroit and in Miami. They’re very close, and I got to sit down with him and understand—then really just watch them from afar, him and Coach Kacy [Rodgers]. Then having the opportunities to really speak with him, understanding how he wanted to use me in his defense, it was appealing to me.

 “That’s why, like you said, you take that leap of faith with a strong gentleman like that and we just went from there.”

– – –

On the technical end—knowing how exactly to attack the Chiefs—the benefit of going through what the Bucs did would only pay off if they happened to see Kansas City again, and that could only happen in the Super Bowl. But the other part, about maturity? The Bucs could attack that one right away.

Much was made in the aftermath of the Super Bowl of the importance of the Bucs’ bye week for Tampa’s offense—and how Brady and Arians spent it diving deeper into melding what Arians had always done with what Brady did particularly well. It turns out, over that time, the group on the other side of the ball had a similar reckoning.

In looking back at the team’s first 12 games, and maybe at least in part because the Bucs’ bye week came so late, Bowles and his lieutenants had noticed some details slipping. So they dedicated most of the two weeks between the Chiefs and Vikings games drilling down on the fundamentals.

“We study every week, and we didn’t have the bye until Week 13, so you game-plan so much that you forget about the fundamentals,” Bowles says. “Press coverage, using your hands and tackling, keeping your head on the inside or outside, moving your feet in press coverage, zone drops, understanding what we’re trying to do and not trying to get too over-elaborative with the scheme, we were just going back to fundamentals that way.”

–

“I think that the simplest thing that clicked for us was that guys realized that you don’t have to do anything special,” Suh says. “All you have to do is execute. And once we execute, the football Gods are going to pick and choose, Hey, you get an interception, you get a forced fumble, you get a sack fumble. That’s kind of how the game works. But everybody has to be in the right place and execute.”

– – –

 “The brilliance was the simplicity,” Suh says. “A lot of the things that Coach Bowles is known for is how creative he can be—and we had those creative blitzes, we had all those things up, and we ran a couple of them. … But I think he also just had the confidence in us up front, and really the secondary guys too.”

As such, the things Bowles told his players they had to accomplish was straight-forward.

• Stop the run with a six-man box, allowing for the coaches to keep two safeties deep, and accomplish the first goal—taking the deep ball away from Mahomes.

• Eliminate the quick strike by taking away Mahomes’s first read, which meant staying on top of receivers at the line, and giving the guys jamming Hill and Travis Kelce help. And when the Chiefs do hit the quick ones, rally to the ball and tackle.

• Plaster receivers in scramble situations—which meant seeing Mahomes break the pocket, and immediately picking the guy in your area when he was able to do that.

 ‘Those are the three things we harped on, but at the same time we didn’t try to overthink it and make the game overly complex,” Bowles says. “Football is football, so what we went into the week before the Super Bowl, the week that we game-planned, and we didn’t try to add any extra things the next week. We kinda wanted to get all of that part down, and those guys did a good job of focusing on the game plan of what we had to do to get that done.”

                   – – –

Five minutes of game clock later, and Bowles had his first title as a coach, to go with the one he won as a player in 1987. And when I asked him about the plan itself, and people calling it brilliant, he told me the word that popped in his head was “appreciative.”

Of the job Rodgers did readying the D-line to stop the run out of a six-man box. Of what Larry Foote did to prepare his outside linebackers to play run-stuffing stunts that were key. Of Mike Caldwell in having the inside ’backers set to play man coverage (David on Kelce was huge), and adjust the tackles as needed. Of Nick Rapone to have safeties schooled on depth and playing with disciplined eyes. Of Kevin Ross for having his corners ready for the ultimate challenge, and of Lori Locust, Cody Grimm and Tim Atkins too.

And, of course, of the players who carried it all out.

And as we worked through it, the words of another coach who Bowles has worked with, and considers a mentor came up—to sum up the story of one night played out over six months.

“Like [Bill] Parcells said, Nobody remembers what you did in September, October, November.” Bowles says. “December games matter. You can be Rookie of the Week in Week 2. Nobody’s going to remember that in Week 14. You have to play good football in December, no matter what anybody says about you before then. And if you have a chance to be in a position to play those games in December and make them meaningful, you have to be an all-around, good football team.

“The other stuff is experience and it helps you through the season. But December football matters. We played decent football in December.”

And, clearly, that set the stage for what was to come.

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

This sounds like good news.  Jori Epstein of USA TODAY:

Eleven days after a crash involving then-Kansas City Chiefs assistant coach Britt Reid sent a 5-year-old into a coma, Ariel Young is awake, her family said.

“Ariel is awake,” cousin Tiffany Verhulst wrote Monday on the GoFundMe page collecting donations for medical expenses.

Verhulst had organized the fundraiser on behalf of Ariel’s mother Felicia. A GoFundMe spokesperson confirmed the validity of the page to the Kansas City Star.

The Kansas City Police Department is investigating a Feb. 4 crash not far from the team practice facility in which Britt Reid, the son of Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and then the team’s outside linebackers coach, hit two other vehicles. 

Britt Reid was involved in a multiple-vehicle accident on Feb. 4.

One vehicle had run out of gas and the second was bringing it fuel when a Ram Laramie Sport pickup struck the stranded car and slammed into the stopped car, Kansas City police officer Dave Jackson told USA TODAY Sports. The collision injured three people, including children ages 5 and 4. Ariel Young, the 5-year-old remained in a coma a week after the accident, her family posted on their GoFundMe page.

“Thank you to everyone who continues to pray for Ariel and support the family,” Verhulst, the family member organizing the donations, wrote last Thursday. “She remains in a coma and there are no changes today. I’m hopeful that the next time I update this page, it’s with better news.”

On Monday night, as Ariel was awake, donations to the GoFundMe page surpassed $485,000.

AFC NORTH

CLEVELAND

According to the sources of Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, EDGE J.J. WATT has the Browns higher on his list of prospective employers than you might think:

NFL Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski just might find himself with a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year in J.J. Watt on his roster this season.

Released by the Texans on Friday, Watt is seriously considering the Browns as one of his options because they have a lot of what he wants, sources tell cleveland.com.

The two biggest things? Money and a potential Super Bowl. What’s more, they have a strong supporting cast and a positive environment. Check, check, check, and check.

Coming off of a frustrating 4-12 season, Watt wants to play for a Super Bowl contender, and the Browns check off that all-important box. They made it into the final eight last season, losing to the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, 22-17, in the AFC Divisional round.

Watt, 32, also wants to get paid his market value, and the Browns have the cap space to pay him. They’re 10th in the NFL with about $21.7 million in space. Watt was due to make $17.5 million in 2021, and will probably be looking for something in that ballpark.

The Browns were prepared to pay about that much last offseason to Jadeveon Clowney, making him a higher one-year offer than any other team, and a very competitive multiyear offer.

Watt, a five-time first-team All-Pro, certainly won’t come cheap, but he’d be worth it if he can get the Browns over the top and into that elusive Super Bowl.

Many of the teams interested in Watt are cap-strapped and won’t be able to pull it off. The Steelers, who already have Watt’s two brothers T.J. and Derek Watt on their roster, are currently about $30 million over the cap. Ben Roethlisberger has said he’ll restructure his contract to bring down his $41.5 million cap hit for 2021, but they’d likely have to make other moves to make it happen.

Watt has gushed over Bucs QB Tom Brady, who just won his seventh Super Bowl, and would undoubtedly love to join him in Tampa, where the Bucs are 11th in cap space with about $14.8 million left, according to overthecap.com.

“Tom’s unbelievable. It’s incredible what he’s done. I don’t think people truly understand or appreciate or can fathom how insanely difficult it is,’’ Watt said on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon. “The guy’s just, he’s the greatest of all time.”

There’s talk he’d also love to go to Green Bay in his home state and play with Aaron Rodgers, but the Packers are also currently over the cap by about $19 million. Others teams he’s been linked to are also in cap trouble, including the Titans (over by $3 million), the Bills (over by $322,851), and the Bears (over by $191,825).

In addition to the Browns’ current $21.7 million available, they can clear more cap room depending on roster moves they make this offseason.

But they wasted no time in dialing up Watt’s reps on Friday, and they can make a competitive offer and compelling presentation.

“He’s a very, very unique player in that his combination of size, strength, athleticism, quickness and power is really unrivaled,” Browns coach Kevin Stefanski said of Watt in November, before the Browns beat the Texans 10-7 in fierce winds at FirstEnergy Stadium on Nov. 15. “He gets those long arms up, and he bats balls in the air. He’s a very, very disruptive player. He lines up all over the formation, so you can’t key in on where he is going to be. I have a huge amount of respect for what he has done in his career.”

Watt, who was constantly double-teamed in 2020 and held to only five sacks, would also have the benefit of bookending with Myles Garrett, who will draw plenty of attention and free Watt up to make plays. In Joe Woods’ defense, he’d likely be back to double-digit sacks in 2021.

“[Garrett’s] obviously having a great year so far,’’ Watt said before their meeting in November. “Hopefully he doesn’t have a good game on Sunday. That’s the goal for us. The guy’s a hell of a player. He’s got speed. He’s got quickness and power. He’s got all the tools you need, and he’s obviously playing at an extremely high level.”

Supporting cast and team culture are also two high priorities for Watt, sources say, and the Browns meet both of those criteria. The club will bolster the defense this offseason, and players love playing for Stefanski and the rest of his staff. The vibe in Cleveland is good, and Watt will get a good report from Garrett and others.

His frustration with the losing culture in Houston boiled over after a 37-31 loss to the Bengals in Week 16, and the writing was on the wall that he wanted out.

“We’re professional athletes getting paid a whole lot of money,” Watt told reporters after the game. “If you can’t come in and put work in in the building, go out to the practice field and work hard, do your lifts and do what you’re supposed to do, you should not be here. This is a job. We are getting paid a whole lot of money.

“There are a lot of people that watch us and invest their time and their money into buying our jerseys and buying a whole bunch of s—, and they care about it. They care every single week. We’re in Week 16 and we’re 4-11, and there’s fans that watch this game, that show up to the stadium that put in time and energy and effort and care about this. So if you can’t go out there and you can’t work out, you can’t show up on time, you can’t practice, you can’t want to go out there and win, you shouldn’t be here. Because this is a privilege. It’s the greatest job in the world. You get to go out and play a game. And if you can’t care enough, even in Week 17, even when you’re trash, when you’re 4-11. If you can’t care enough to go out there and give everything you’ve got and try your hardest, that’s bulls—.’’

Watt will find the opposite in Cleveland, where Stefanski changed the culture to one of accountability and winning in one season.

AFC SOUTH

TENNESSEE

Titans GM John Robinson doesn’t sugarcoat how T ISAIAH WILSON was a huge disappointment in his rookie season.  Turron Davenport of ESPN.com:

To say the Tennessee Titans are disappointed in 2020 first-round pick Isaiah Wilson would be an understatement.

Titans general manager Jon Robinson addressed Wilson’s status during a virtual news conference with the local media Tuesday. He didn’t seem pleased with how the 2020 season ended for Wilson, who played only four snaps last year despite being the 29th-overall pick.

“We put him on the reserve/non-football injury list and haven’t spoken to him since. He’s going to have to make a determination on whether he wants to do what it takes to play pro football. That will be on him,” Robinson said when asked about Wilson.

“I know what the expectation level is here, and it’s no different than any other player on the football team. We have a certain standard that we want players to prepare and perform at professionally, and as people, and there’s a lot of work to be done there,” he said.

The Titans placed Wilson on the NFI list in December to put a cap on a rather regrettable start to his NFL career. Wilson found himself on the reserve/COVID-19 list twice last season. The rookie right tackle also had a couple of run-ins with the law.

The first incident came when Tennessee State University police broke up an off-campus party that Wilson had attended during training camp. In their report, the police documented that Wilson went to the second-floor balcony, where he appeared to briefly consider jumping. He received a trespass warning.

The second incident occurred when Wilson was arrested and charged with a DUI in September when he lost control of his vehicle and struck a concrete wall.

Robinson said the Titans did extensive research on Wilson leading up to the draft and liked what they saw. They spent time with Wilson at the NFL scouting combine, where the 6-foot-6, 350-pound player first sized up coach Mike Vrabel during a meeting. Robinson joked that Wilson’s chuckle reminded him of Hall of Fame wrestler Andre the Giant.

A lot has changed since their first impression of Wilson, and there is likely some degree of buyer’s remorse.

“We did a lot of work on him leading up to the draft. The player that was here in the fall was not the player we evaluated,” Robinson said.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

The Dolphins nail down PK JASON SANDERS per a Tweet from Adam Schefter:

@AdamSchefter

Miami Dolphins are signing kicker Jason Sanders to a five-year, $22 million extension that includes $10 million guaranteed and ties him to the Dolphins through the 2026 season, per source. Sanders is one of the league’s top kickers and now will be paid like it.

NEW YORK JETS

Albert Breer of SI.com with more on the interest the Jets are receiving for QB SAM DARNOLD.

We told you last week four teams called the Jets, in the aftermath of the Stafford trade, to inquire on Sam Darnold’s availability. More have called since, I’m told, and the answer those teams got was the same that the ones calling before got—Check back with us soon. Right now, the Jets coaching staff is working through its tape evaluation of the draft-eligible quarterbacks, which is a huge piece to all of his. The job, for the Jets right now, is to compare and contrast what it has in Darnold (at 23, with a year plus an option year left on his contract) to what Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, or Trey Lance (coming on new/affordable rookie deals) could be for them. There are a lot of teams that would be obvious potential landing spots. Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Chicago and San Francisco make sense, pending what happens with Wentz, and the scarcity of available names (and I mean actually available, not just potentially available) right now could drive Darnold’s value up. Either way, it’s a good spot for Jets GM Joe Douglas and new coach Robert Saleh to be in.

THIS AND THAT

STRANGE OFFSEASON?

Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano offer eight reasons that the 2021 offseason will be unusual:

This NFL offseason is going to be strange. Not as strange, hopefully, as last year’s NFL offseason or even the season that followed, but strange nonetheless. The impact of the still-extant COVID-19 pandemic will linger into 2021 and affect the way teams and player agents do business.

By this point in a normal year, teams have a pretty good idea what the salary cap will be. Everyone is prepping for the combine, where a week spent in close proximity usually helps teams and agents get a feel for how the free-agent market might shake out. And draft prospects are training for televised workouts in spandex shorts.

This year? Projected salary-cap estimates range from $175 million to $190 million as the NFL and the NFLPA continue to discuss where it should be set and the league negotiates new TV contracts with the networks. There is no combine, because a week in which the entire league is pressed together in crowded bars and convention center hallways just doesn’t make sense in 2021. And the draft prospects are going to have to present themselves in entirely new ways.

The fact of the matter, though, is that the NFL managed to have an offseason in 2020, when major chunks of the country were locked down and it was hard to even get a COVID-19 test. It will be able to navigate an offseason in 2021 as well. It’s just that it’s going to be a little bit odd in certain areas. With free agency just about four weeks away (the new league year begins March 17), we wanted to take a look at a few of those:

Salary-cap planning for this year and beyond

In most years, teams aren’t scared of the salary cap, an accounting tool they can circumvent by a few contract restructures or veteran releases. They worry more about the cash — how much an owner is willing to spend — than keeping a book.

This year is a bit different. Close to one-third of the league is operating in the red thanks to a $175 million salary-cap floor due to lost revenue in the pandemic. The Eagles and Saints face a combined $110 million-plus projected cap deficit as it stands.

Those teams weren’t worried before because the salary cap was increasing by about $10 million each year. This time, the $198.2 million cap teams used all of last year currently projects to be around $181 million for 2021.

The league and the players’ union are negotiating for what the final number will be, and it depends on a few unprecedented factors. The current negotiations center on how much of the expected drop in the cap should be “borrowed” from future years — i.e., if revenue projections say the cap should drop by $20 million this year, is it better to drop it by $10 million this year and $10 million next year instead? Also, if one or more of the broadcast deals gets done in the coming weeks and the owners exercise their option to expand the regular season to 17 games, the number could end up being higher than expected.

“It’s a real concern,” said one league exec who manages contracts and cap for an NFL team. “There are major impacts teams are gonna feel over the next month that they aren’t used to.”

That includes, in the estimates of many inside the league, an abnormally large number of veteran cuts leaguewide. We’ve already seen big names released or informed of a pending release — Texans defensive end J.J. Watt, Broncos cornerback A.J. Bouye, Raiders wide receiver Tyrell Williams — before Valentine’s Day. Some teams figure they know what they have to do to get compliant and are working downhill earlier than usual. Some teams are budgeting for the $175 million figure, which is the lowest it can be per last summer’s agreement between the league and the players, figuring it’s better to have unexpected surplus than deficit. Others will stay patient, waiting for more clarity on the final figures.

Street free agents will flood the market and boost an already crowded pool of available talent at a time when some teams are hesitant to pay top dollar. As one veteran NFL agent pointed out, “If you have high-earning veterans and you aren’t proactively approaching teams about restructuring deals, you are doing a disservice.”

The cap issues won’t curb spending altogether, but a few themes have emerged in talking with teams and players:

The top players will be paid well while the middle class will be marginalized.

Some teams will lean heavily on one-year deals.

Some high-profile free agents might prefer one-year deals that allow them to hit the market again a year from now, when the cap will presumably go back up.

Other teams might actually be aggressive spenders because they think they are getting a pandemic discount. Those teams can sell players on increased guarantees and signing bonuses in exchange for less overall money.

“I know teams are concerned about 2022, too, because we don’t know how many fans will be in the stands next [season],” said one AFC exec. “I know the [upcoming] TV deals will help, but at some point you need that revenue from stadiums.”

Franchise-tag implications

Ah, another year of the franchise tag, a convenient outlet for a team to avoid a long-term marriage with a star player.

Last offseason, 14 players received a franchise-tag designation, and two of them — Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (four years, $80 million), Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (four years, $50 million) — entered the season with a long-term deal in place.

That reality doesn’t align with the spirit of the tag, which was established as a placeholder to keep stars out of free agency for four-plus months while negotiating an extension. In many cases last year, the two sides weren’t close, a deviation from a more successful 2019, when five of the six franchised players got deals out of it.

This year will create unique challenges for both sides since the tags will inevitably pay less. (Remember: The tag is calculated by taking the average of the top five players’ cap percentage at the position for the 2020 season or 120% of the player’s previous year salary — whichever is greater.)

Projections at Spotrac and Pro Football Focus show manageable numbers based on a $180 million cap: quarterback ($24.8 million), offensive line ($13.6 million), running back ($8.5 million), wide receiver ($15.8 million), tight end ($9.5 million), cornerback ($14.9 million), defensive end ($15.9 million), defensive tackle ($13.7 million), linebacker ($14.6 million), offensive line ($13.6 million), punter or kicker ($4.4 million). That’s about a 10-15% decrease from the previous year across the board.

One high-ranking league exec predicted teams will take advantage of the lower numbers by using more tags, especially since one-year deals could be trendy in a suppressed year anyway. Teams have Feb. 23 to March 9 to make these calls.

The Packers, for example, would be wise to at least consider using the tag on running back Aaron Jones at that $8.5 million number. In Tampa Bay, the tag is a strong option for receiver Chris Godwin, who is a priority for the team. Unless the Cowboys reach a long-term agreement with him in the next three weeks, they will assuredly go through this again with quarterback Dak Prescott, who at least has the protection of a second tag, which must increase 120% from the previous year’s number. At $37.7 million, up from $31.4 million, Prescott will have unprecedented leverage in the quarterback market. Dallas could try to get ahead of the tag and sign Prescott sooner than later, although nothing is close as it stands.

Another NFL source predicted about 10 tags in total, figuring the payouts are still fairly high for teams that prefer spreading out signing bonuses over three to five years. The final tally will depend on the conviction of teams that don’t want sneaky-good players leaving their building.

The Panthers, for example, want to do what it takes to keep offensive tackle Taylor Moton. That $13.6 million clip is a good number for a quality left tackle. Paying $14.6 million for a good pass-rusher is a relative bargain, which is why Arizona could tag Haason Reddick after a 12.5-sack season. The tight end numbers have been so low that the Chargers should consider tagging Hunter Henry a second time, costing $12.7 million. Safety John Johnson III for $10.5 million? Some defensive-needy teams would sign up for that, and the Rams have the luxury to choose.

These examples are all over the league. At least two-thirds of the league will be faced with these decisions.

Expect a busy trade market

Quarterbacks are setting this process off. Nearly half the league faces questions at the position. Matthew Stafford asked out of Detroit and got his wish weeks later. Boom, he’s a Ram.

Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz are all unhappy. Aaron Rodgers might belong in that group, too.

Player empowerment at the game’s most important position has deepened intrigue in a suddenly dramatic offseason. Sure, the Seahawks believe they can fix things with Wilson, who wants more offensive line help, and the Texans aren’t honoring Watson’s trade request as of now. But each quarterback is making his points loud and clear.

As one Pro Bowl defensive player recently told us, a clear correlation exists between quarterbacks’ ballooning salaries and their voices growing louder. “Once these guys started making more than $30 million per year, that gives them more power,” the Pro Bowler said.

That doesn’t apply to all quarterbacks, of course. the carousel is spinning so wildly because teams know they have little chance without one. That breeds second chances, with embattled former top-three picks such as Sam Darnold and Marcus Mariota holding value to teams willing to explore options.

Aggressive front offices will be looking to unload assets not just at quarterback but all over the league. As we noted earlier, 10 teams entered this week with a salary-cap deficit. The easiest way to change that? Take big-money players with large cap hits entering the final year or two on a deal and shop their value.

Almost every team has a candidate. Watt leaving Houston once didn’t seem possible, yet here we are. Houston probably could have squeezed a draft pick out of his services but decided to give him a head start on free agency. Maybe the Broncos will do the same with another future Hall of Famer, Von Miller, who has an $18 million option on the final year of his deal. Or, they could gauge trade value for a team looking to flip Miller’s existing deal into a three-year extension to put a contender over the top.

Ravens right tackle Orlando Brown will have a market, and although he hasn’t formally requested a trade, Baltimore knows he wants out because he can’t play left tackle with Ronnie Stanley entrenched there. The 2022 free agent will likely want a new deal as part of a trade. Either way, there will be suitors. The Chargers seem like a natural fit with Sam Tevi likely leaving in free agency. The situation between Brown and the Ravens is unusual — a 24-year-old player entering his fourth year trying to work his way into a more potentially profitable position. Will other teams value him as a left tackle and trade players who indicate as much? Will those same teams want to pay him left tackle money? Would the Dolphins, whose quarterback throws left-handed, bring him in to play right tackle and pay him blindside-protector money?

Eagles tight end Zach Ertz is an obvious trade candidate. Philadelphia can save $8.25 million on the cap by moving on. Contract negotiations before the 2020 season did not go well.

And Patriots corner Stephon Gilmore, with one year left at $7 million — a bargain for a Defensive Player of the Year less than 13 months ago — is a name to watch. His name made the speculative rounds during the trade deadline in October.

Browns receiver Odell Beckham Jr. could drive interest, although he has missed 25 games over the past four seasons due to injury, and in the one full season he did play during that span (2019), he battled through a groin injury. Still, his $15.75 million cap hit isn’t bad for a player of his caliber. Receiver-needy teams hesitant to spend big on Allen Robinson or Kenny Golladay could call Cleveland, which also has high-priced Beckham buddy Jarvis Landry under contract at the same position.

More than ever, executives are willing to at least discuss possibilities with big-ticket players. Thirteen teams have more than $20 million in cap space. Others will get creative while trying to get there.

Players in line for contract extensions

Several teams will make efforts to re-sign stars before March 17, starting with the Giants, who want defensive lineman Leonard Williams in blue for the coming years. His market will be robust.

We’ve been hearing about the Cowboys’ plans to keep Prescott for two years now. The 49ers got close to a deal with left tackle Trent Williams before the regular season ended. They will try again, but premium left tackles rarely hit free agency and Williams will be interested in testing that process. Many around the league expect the Broncos to make a strong push to re-sign safety Justin Simmons, one of the game’s most versatile at the position.

There will be others. But absent the franchise tag, most high-profile free agents are willing to wait this out. They’ve waited this long. Why not become a true free agent?

Also, a good place to look is the first round of the 2017 draft, which produced several star players approaching their fifth-year option year without a new deal.

The Seahawks plan to re-sign safety Jamal Adams, who was worth two first-round picks in a trade with the New York Jets. They can’t let this one play out very long.

T.J. Watt will be looking for a massive deal in line with the highest-paid pass-rushers. Joey Bosa tops that market at $27 million per year, followed by Myles Garrett at $25 million. That’s a starting point for Watt after 42.5 sacks over the past three years. The Steelers have major cap issues and several high-profile free agents on this year’s market, so Watt’s extension might have to wait a bit.

Fred Warner (49ers) and Darius Leonard (Colts), who are both 2022 free agents, can reset the linebacker market this summer.

The Saints can actually help their cap issues by extending corner Marshon Lattimore and offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk, who are set to make $10 million and $11 million, respectively, on their fifth-year options. Washington’s Jonathan Allen is a key piece to the team’s vaunted defensive line and will be in line for an extension.

As far as veterans playing out a second contract, the Packers must find a way to extend wideout Davante Adams, who is due $12 million in the final year of his deal. He’s a top-three receiver who is well outside the top 10 in pay scale on an obsolete contract. And he’s only 28. Easy decision.

Put a spotlight on Cleveland, which has several young players for whom to plan financially. The Browns set a precedent by extending Garrett despite two years left on his deal, which clears the path for quarterback Baker Mayfield and cornerback Denzel Ward to get theirs early, too.

Mayfield is one of three first-round quarterbacks from 2018 — along with Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson — in line for a megadeal. All three will undoubtedly negotiate with their teams, but waiting until 2022, under the umbrella of a healthier cap, isn’t a bad play, either.

Free agents who will likely do better than people might think

Cornerback Shaquill Griffin doesn’t get much fanfare out in Seattle, but he’s a true cover corner and physical tackler. Those guys are paid. He’ll have plenty of suitors. A lot of teams will be in the market for a cornerback help.

Carl Lawson has been a sneaky good pass-rusher in Cincinnati. He just doesn’t have the big sack numbers (20 since 2017). When you ask coaches in the AFC North, they say he’s a problem up front. Bears defensive end Roy Robertson-Harris could get a bigger-than-expected contract, too.

Carl Lawson had 5.5 sacks and two forced fumbles in 2020. David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire

Rams tight end Gerald Everett isn’t a high-volume player — he had never played more than 450 offensive snaps in a season before this year — but is immensely talented. The question is whether teams look at him as a full-time guy or a situational weapon. But he should have a good market.

Here’s a low-key player to watch: Panthers guard Chris Reed. The former Minnesota State standout just played out a two-year deal in Carolina and acquitted himself well. He’s not a name who screams big money, but he should have a nice deal somewhere. Same could go for another former small-school blocker, Pittsburgh’s Matt Feiler, a Bloomsburg product who is going on three years as a Steelers starter, can play multiple spots on the line. He’ll be hard for Pittsburgh to keep.

There are lots of big names who will flood the receiver market, but there are quality low-key options, too, from Josh Reynolds to Kendrick Bourne and Damiere Byrd. Guys with yards-after-catch ability will have jobs waiting.

How the pre-draft process has changed

Before and throughout the 2020 season, especially as teams pondered the idea of trading 2021 draft picks, we were told over and over that 2021 would be the worst-evaluated draft in league history. That’s likely an overstatement, since technology alone offers more effective evaluation tools than they had in, say, the 1970s. But the point is that April’s draft will force teams to evaluate players far differently — and perhaps less accurately — from what they’re used to.

One thing that keeps coming up in conversations with teams is the medical evaluations that always take place at the combine. Without those, teams worry that information about prospects with health issues will be in short supply. This could lead teams torn between two prospects to lean toward the ostensibly healthier one, and it could put added pressure on prospects who carry health concerns to find ways to prove to teams that they’re healthy enough to get drafted. The league is working to figure out how to get teams this information without any team having an advantage.

Pro days will offer opportunities to evaluate players in combine-type drills, but teams generally view pro days as slanted in favor of the players who are being showcased. They’re working out with their own coaches and their own teammates in familiar environs as opposed to the less biased environment the combine offers. (Exos, a company that trains players, is simulating its own combine later this month.) Prospects are drug-tested at the combine as well, and those results are disseminated to all teams simultaneously.

The upshot is that teams will have less information than usual with which to evaluate draft prospects. There are some who view that as a potential good thing, since sometimes teams feel they’re dealing with information overload during this process. But more likely, there will be more teams feeling as if they’re taking insufficiently educated guesses in certain spots — especially as the draft moves into the later rounds. Round 1 of the draft begins April 29.

New coaches/GMs changing plans

Every year brings new decision-makers in new places, which sometimes means the personnel who fit the old philosophy become expendable under the new. Example: Wide receiver Jamison Crowder was probably the best player on the Jets’ offense in 2020. But his $10 million non-guaranteed salary and his $11.4 million cap hit in the final year of his contract could make him vulnerable to a cap-related cut if new offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur brings in a system that doesn’t lean as hard on the slot receiver.

New coach Dan Campbell and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will be installing a new scheme in Detroit, and players who were brought in because of their familiarity with Matt Patricia’s system could be on the way out. Cornerback Desmond Trufant, defensive tackle Danny Shelton, even linebacker Jamie Collins all could be at risk of cut or trade. And since Campbell and Glenn both came from the Saints, they could have their eyes on some of New Orleans’ key free agents, such as edge rusher Trey Hendrickson and safety Marcus Williams.

We know the Seahawks’ quarterback wants more help on the offensive line, but Seattle is also installing a new offensive system under new coordinator Shane Waldron, and the team has its eye on some players who might fit Waldron’s system at tight end and wide receiver. Not that there’s anything wrong with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, but don’t be surprised if the Seahawks add to their stable of offensive skill position players.

Lingering COVID-19 impact on the offseason

With vaccinations ramping up and COVID-19 cases trending down nationwide, there’s hope of a much more normal NFL season with fans in the stands in 2021. But it’s understood in league circles (as it is outside of them) that the pandemic isn’t over yet and won’t be over in time for the usual April start of offseason programs. That could mean a repeat of last year’s offseason programs, which were conducted virtually. The NFLPA has been vocal about wanting to incorporate some of the pandemic-related changes to the NFL offseason going forward. Players believe the fact that the season went as well as it did in spite of the scaled-back offseason program is a sign that the league can get away with less on-field work in the offseason. The NFLPA has been working for years — with some success — to reduce the toll offseason practices take on players’ bodies, and it will continue to push for further changes with that aim.

In-person free-agent and pre-draft visits are likely to be curtailed or strongly regulated, if not eliminated entirely again. With the traditional combine scuttled, teams will rely on individual schools’ pro days and perhaps some locally organized combine-type workouts to conduct the draft evaluations that normally take place in Indianapolis.

As for a return to normal operations, there’s hope in league circles that nationwide vaccinations will have the pandemic in retreat in time for an on-time start for business-as-usual training camps in late July. The league has consistently said it would not attempt to “cut the line” for vaccine distribution, which means players and team personnel would be vaccinated according to where they fit into the schedules in their local areas. It’s also unclear at this time whether the league would require its players to be vaccinated before returning to the field. Decisions on that could have to wait until the latter part of the summer, when they can assess where things stand with the pandemic and the accessibility of vaccines.

The hope, of course, is that 2020 will stand in history as the lone season impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The reality is that its impact will linger into — and possibly through — the 2021 offseason as well.

VINCENT JACKSON

Former WR Vincent Jackson, who seemed to do everything right off the field during his NFL career, was found dead on Monday under murky circumstances.  WFLA-TV:

Former Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Diego Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson was found dead Monday in a hotel room in Brandon, according to the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office.

There were no signs of trauma, deputies said. The medical examiner’s office is now working to determine Jackson’s cause of death.

The death remains an active and open investigation as of Tuesday morning.

Deputies said 38-year-old Jackson, who was a South Tampa resident, checked in to the Homewood Suites at 10240 Palm River Road in Brandon on Jan. 11 and had been staying there since then.

Jackson’s family reported him missing on Feb. 10. Two days later, deputies with the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office found Jackson at the hotel he was staying and spoke with him.

After assessing Jackson’s well-being, the missing persons case was canceled.

Jackson was then found dead around 11:30 a.m. Monday in his hotel room by a housekeeper, the sheriff’s office said.

“My heart aches for the many loved ones Vincent Jackson leaves behind, from his wife and children to the Buccaneers nation that adored him,” Sheriff Chad Chronister said in a statement.

You can read the Sheriff’s full statement below:

“My heart aches for the many loved ones Vincent Jackson leaves behind, from his wife and children to the Buccaneers nation that adored him,” said Sheriff Chad Chronister. “Mr. Jackson was a devoted man who put his family and community above everything else. Football aside, he touched countless lives through his Jackson In Action 83 Foundation. We shared a passion for supporting military families, and three years ago, Jackson was even made an honorary deputy by the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office to recognize his dedication to the community. He will be sorely missed by not only football fans across the country, but also the people here in Hillsborough County who reaped the benefits of his generous contributions.”