| Ben Solak of ESPN.com ranks all the positions in the market – free agent and draft. At the top – EDGE RUSHERS Here are my rankings for the strongest and weakest positions for this offseason, weighing both free agency and the draft. 1. Edge rusherGood year to need … any sort of edge rusher at allBad year to need … a truly elite dude (unless you’d like to send two first-rounders for Maxx Crosby) If your favorite team’s general manager can’t find a good fit at edge rusher this offseason, tell him to take a hike. Putting aside the Crosby trade rumors for now, here’s a list of expected free agent edge rushers: Trey Hendrickson (Bengals), Odafe Oweh (Chargers), Jaelan Phillips (Eagles), Khalil Mack (Chargers), K’Lavon Chaisson (Patriots), Boye Mafe (Seahawks), Joey Bosa (Bills) and Jadeveon Clowney (Cowboys). The main thing that impresses me is the variety. Oweh, Chaisson and Mafe are speed artists who can create pressure fast. Guys such as Mack, Clowney and Kingsley Enagbare (Packers) are all hitters in the running game. Want to gamble on injured, aging veterans? Hendrickson, Bosa, Cameron Jordan (Saints) and Von Miller (Commanders) could all have something left. What about undeveloped traits? Kwity Paye (Colts) and Arnold Ebiketie (Falcons) are your guys. There’s something for everyone in this group. Hendrickson, Oweh and Phillips can all reasonably be projected for 10-plus sacks next season, while Mafe, Chaisson, Mack and Bosa can all be eight-sack players. And that’s without any surprises from more middle-tier veterans like Dre’Mont Jones (Ravens) and Al-Quadin Muhammad (Lions). In the draft, I think it’s fair to have eight-plus-sack projections in mind for David Bailey (Texas Tech) and Rueben Bain Jr. (Miami). Bain is a tricky one. Apparently some teams view him as an undersized 3-tech instead of a big base end, but I’ve watched him win too many outside rushes too quickly to knock him inside just yet. The real wild card is Ohio State’s Arvell Reese, an on-ball/off-ball linebacker hybrid whom the league reportedly prefers as an edge rusher. He has a chance to be a high-value player as a movement piece, but those guys don’t tend to hit in Year 1. All three of those prospects are top-10 pick candidates. We haven’t even gotten to the bulk of the first round, where options abound. Auburn’s Keldric Faulk was miscast in the Tigers’ defense and will benefit from more true edge rusher snaps in the NFL — he’s this year’s Mykel Williams, and Williams ended up going 11th. Cashius Howell (Texas A&M) is the Will Campbell of this class (albeit on defense), as his short arm length measurements will end up a limiting factor for many teams. But 11.5 sacks in his final season of highly explosive pass rushing should get him drafted early. And Akheem Mesidor (Miami) is the Tyler Shough of this class. He was highly productive late in his college career … and I do mean late! He’ll be 25 by draft night, and he is older than current NFLers Will Anderson Jr. and Lukas Van Ness. But man, that film is good. Expect to see at least six edges go in the first round (if we’re counting Reese). Seven made it in Field Yates’ most recent mock draft, as Missouri’s Zion Young joined the party. While there isn’t a truly elite rusher like Anderson or Abdul Carter, there are a ton of top-50 options, and some splashy free agents to boot. You can check out positions 2 thru 10 here, but at the bottom is quarterback 11. QuarterbackGood year to need … Fernando MendozaBad year to need … anyone else What do you want me to tell you? If I could earnestly include Mendoza in the pool of “available quarterback options for QB-needy teams,” maybe this position would leapfrog the interior defensive line. But Mendoza is all but off the board to the Raiders, leaving roughly a dozen other teams with serious quarterback needs in the lurch. The second-best quarterback prospect is Alabama’s Ty Simpson. He’s a one-year starter in college, he didn’t have elite production in that one year, and he lacks top-flight tools (size, arm strength, speed). That’s the long and the short of it. There’s plenty of ways to talk yourself into him as a developmental player. He rose quickly in his lone season as a starter, bouncing back from a poor season opener and catching some fire through October and November. He can see the full field from the pocket and has the intangibles and coachability of a player who will succeed in the pros. But again, this is a developmental player — a year away from seeing the field. He should be drafted where Jalen Milroe (who started above him at Alabama in 2024) was drafted — the mid-third round. Maybe Simpson goes higher because his play style is more typically pro-ready, but we’re talking ourselves into a second-round pick on projection here..Yet Simpson may go to the Rams at No. 29 because they have the extra first-round pick and need developmental youth at quarterback. If they pass on Simpson, who is there? Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) had the film in 2024 to push for Round 1, but he wasn’t 100% in 2025 and lacks ideal NFL size; he’s now likely a Day 3 pick. And Carson Beck (Miami) and Drew Allar (Penn State) and Cade Klubnik (Clemson) are all trading on recruiting rankings. The free agent and trade markets have more viable options than the draft class, but that isn’t saying much. Malik Willis is an exciting free agent in that he’s an enormous mystery box, and the few peeks we’ve gotten beneath the wrapping paper have looked marvelous. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks over the past two seasons, Willis is first in QBR, yards per dropback, completion percentage and explosive pass rate. But again, that’s on 115 dropbacks collected over a few relief appearances and three measly starts. Willis is far from a sure thing — even less sure than Sam Darnold was when he got his three-year, $100.5 million deal from the Seahawks last offseason. A trade target like Tua Tagovailoa is a sure thing, but the surety is in his limitations. The Dolphins have shown over the past few seasons just how many offensive resources have to be dedicated to Tagovailoa’s skill set to make his passing game viable. Teams that want a spot starter to run some spread RPO offenses should like Tagovailoa, but not with any designs on him becoming the next Baker Mayfield or Darnold reclamation. The better target for veteran reclamation is Kyler Murray, whom the Cardinals will almost certainly jettison via release if they cannot find a trade partner to take on his heavy contract. Murray is coming off a foot injury and has not looked the same outside of Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. So while he has some of the signs of a veteran QB reclamation — the high draft background, the physical talent, etc. — he also has some warts that the veteran reclamations often don’t bring. Murray will be 29 next season and simply might not be the sort of escape artist he once was. That’s a hard portfolio to buy into. The only thing I like about this quarterback class (sans Mendoza) is how many rookie contract dart throws are floating around on various rosters. The list includes Anthony Richardson Sr., Will Levis, Spencer Rattler, Tanner McKee — and even Milroe now that Darnold has proved he’s the guy in Seattle. For the many teams that will be stuck with an uninspiring veteran this offseason, it isn’t hard to find the desperate prayer of a young passer to pair with him.– – -Eleven ESPN.com experts weight in with their early Super Bowl picks: What’s your early Super Bowl LXI pick? Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Bears over Bills. Chicago needs to add pass rushers, but the foundational players are there on offense under coach Ben Johnson. With quarterback Caleb Williams’ playmaking ability, the Bears will beat Josh Allen and Joe Brady’s Bills to win Super Bowl LXI. Jeremy Fowler, national NFL reporter: Rams over Broncos. Los Angeles matched up with Seattle as well as anyone last season and will be back to finish the job. The Matthew Stafford-Sean McVay connection is improving with age. The secondary was a weakness late in the season, so expect the Rams to address that issue for roster balance. Dan Graziano, national NFL reporter: Chiefs over Packers. One down season and a torn ACL isn’t enough to scare me off quarterback Patrick Mahomes and coach Andy Reid. Mahomes recovers, along with the Kansas City offense, and the Chiefs claim their third Super Bowl title in five seasons. Pamela Maldonado, sports betting analyst: 49ers over Bills. The 2025 season was a grind, with multiple injuries to key players such as edge rusher Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner and tight end George Kittle. Yet the 49ers still piled up 12 wins and won a playoff game. A roster that’s already battle tested under that level of adversity should be a contending team once its health stabilizes. Eric Moody, fantasy analyst: Broncos over Seahawks. The Broncos appear undervalued despite winning the AFC West and finishing tied for the league’s best record last season, while the Seahawks reminded everyone that defense still wins championships. History suggests repeating is difficult, with only nine teams winning back-to-back Super Bowl titles, and champions often lose key contributors during free agency once players cash in. Jason Reid, Andscape senior NFL writer: Chiefs over Rams. Anyone who knows Mahomes understands that he’ll push himself to return in top form. With him entering his age-31 season, team CEO Clark Hunt, coach Andy Reid and general manager Brett Veach believe that the Chiefs’ championship window remains wide open. They’ll do their part to help Mahomes lead the Chiefs to their fourth Super Bowl championship since 2019. Aaron Schatz, NFL analyst: Rams over Chargers: That’s right, I’m predicting a fight for Los Angeles at SoFi Stadium. Two home teams! The Rams were No. 1 in offense this season, and offense is more consistent than defense. The Chargers will get back their offensive tackles and added Mike McDaniel to coordinate the offense, plus they have a ton of cap space to address their offseason needs. Ben Solak, NFL analyst: Texans over Rams. I’m buying all sorts of Texans stock, as that defense is staying together, and the offense was showing positive signs of growth in a season with a new offensive coordinator and a totally retooled offensive line. With an improvement in the running game, Houston is set for an explosion. Mike Tannenbaum, NFL analyst: Commanders over Bills. Quarterback Jayden Daniels stays healthy next season and bounces back in a big way. He plays in every game and finishes the season by outdueling Allen and the Bills in a 45-42 shootout in L.A. Seth Walder, NFL analyst: Chargers over Packers. Am I falling for the Chargers in the offseason, just like we all do every year? Sure. But this time will be different! The 2025 Chargers’ biggest weakness — the offensive line — already has a built-in solution with their two excellent tackles (Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater) returning to health. Add McDaniel as offensive coordinator and I find myself truly believing. Field Yates, NFL analyst: Rams over Broncos. The two teams that came up short in the conference championship games last season find a way to get over the top in 2026. The Rams will emerge as Super Bowl champs at SoFi Stadium, becoming the third team to win a Super Bowl at its home venue (the Rams won the last Super Bowl at SoFi after the 2021 season). The DB’s chalk pick is Rams over Broncos. If you want a repeat of 2025, how about Texans over Giants. |
| NFC EAST |
| DALLASRB JAVONTE WILLIAMS will remain a Cowboy. Todd Archer of ESPN.com: The Dallas Cowboys kept a key player to their offense Saturday, agreeing to a three-year deal with running back Javonte Williams that guarantees him $16 million, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter. The total deal is worth $24 million and includes a $6 million signing bonus, according to sources. When the Cowboys head to Indianapolis for the NFL scouting combine next week, they can turn their attention to Pro Bowl wide receiver George Pickens. The expectation is the Cowboys will put the franchise tag on Pickens at a cost of roughly $28 million before the March 3 deadline and then hope to work out a multiyear deal. Pickens set career highs last year in catches (93), yards (1,429) and touchdowns (nine). Williams set career highs in rushing yards, carries and touchdowns last year, his first with the Cowboys after signing a one-year deal worth $3 million, following a four-year run with the Denver Broncos, who selected him in the second round of the 2021 draft. Williams finished with 1,201 yards, the ninth most in the NFL even while missing the last game because of a stinger issue that bothered him for most of the season’s final month. Williams, who turns 26 in April, also had 252 carries and 11 rushing touchdowns after topping out at 903 yards (2021), 217 carries (2023) and four TDs (2021, ’24) with the Broncos. He missed most of the 2022 season in Denver after tearing the ACL and LCL in his right knee. His 1,201 yards were the most by a Cowboys running back since Ezekiel Elliott in 2019 (1,357). He also caught 35 passes for 137 yards and two touchdowns. And it is likely that WR GEORGE PICKENS will also have a star on his helmet in 2026 as well. Nick Shook of NFL.com: Unlike last offseason, the Dallas Cowboys are proving to be dealmakers in February. Two days after Javonte Williams agreed to a three-year deal with the team, Cowboys EVP Stephen Jones told reporters they have every intent to retain receiver George Pickens and are “leaning toward” using the franchise tag to ensure he remains in Dallas. “We want Pickens here. We think the world of him,” Jones said. “Want him here. Love him, and I think he wants to be here. So all that’s a plus.” The franchise tag tends to elicit grimaces from players on the receiving end of them because of how it hinders their long-term earning power and limits them to a one-year, relatively lucrative (but high risk) pay day. Like most players, Pickens would likely prefer to sign a competitive, multi-year deal, especially after producing the best season of his career — 93 catches, 1,429 yards, nine TDs — in 2025, his first campaign with the Cowboys. It remains an option for anyone who is tagged but requires willing participation in negotiations from both parties. As Jones said Monday, the Cowboys are certainly willing to explore such an option. “We’ve had people play under the tag and we’ve made deals with people that have a tag,” Jones said. “It can go either way. We’ll continue to really analyze the situation and see what’s next.” The franchise tag would guarantee Pickens will only play in Dallas in 2026. It also solves a major question in the short term, crossing Pickens off a list that began with Williams after the running back posted his own career-best season (1,201 yards, 11 touchdowns) in 2025 and continues with premier kicker Brandon Aubrey, with whom Jones admitted the Cowboys have been engaged in contract talks for a prolonged period. Keeping key contributors from the NFL’s second-ranked offense was a vital objective in the 2026 offseason. But Dallas is also acutely aware of what held it back — the defense — in 2025 and would be wise to dedicate most of its remaining resources toward that side of the ball. The process began with two significant trades executed at the start of and during the season. The Cowboys made the stunning decision to ship All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons to Green Bay in exchange for two first-round picks and veteran defensive tackle Kenny Clark, then followed that up by acquiring All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams in a trade with the struggling Jets at the November trade deadline. It continued when the Cowboys revamped their defensive staff by firing defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus and replacing him with Vic Fangio lieutenant Christian Parker. The work is not done, though. “Yeah. We want to fix this defense,” Jones said when asked if there was a willingness to exhaust the Cowboys’ budget in the offseason. “We feel really good about the offensive side of the ball now that we got Javonte done and we know that we’ll have George back. So, we feel really good about that side of the ball. Obviously we spent a lot of time on it already in the offseason, revamping the defensive coaching staff, and now we’ll take the next steps, which are to improve the personnel on that side of the ball.” The Cowboys believe they’ve already solved half of the equation by hiring Parker, a coach Jones said has “a great defensive mind” and already impressed in how he constructed his defensive staff. |
| NFC SOUTH |
| ATLANTAThe Falcons are going to put a franchise tag on TE KYLE PITTS per Nick Shook of NFL.com: Atlanta’s new regime isn’t interested in letting a former first-round pick walk to free agency. The Falcons are planning to franchise tag tight end Kyle Pitts, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Monday, per sources. Pitts became a Falcon in 2021 when Atlanta spent the fourth-overall pick on the Florida product, immediately placing great expectations on his shoulders as a dynamic athlete with the potential to become a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. He’s never quite reached that high bar but also has played under two different head coaches and two offensive coordinators in five seasons while running routes for an assortment of quarterbacks: Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke, Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr. With this in mind, there was a general belief Atlanta might let Pitts test free agency in lieu of hammering out an extension with the 2021 Pro Bowler. Instead, new coach Kevin Stefanski — an individual with a history of featuring tight ends and relying on two-tight end sets — and new general manager Ian Cunningham have decided they’d rather prevent Pitts from leaving entirely by committing to paying him a projected $16.3 million for 2026 while preserving the chance to work out a multi-year deal. Rapoport added that a long-term deal replacing the tag is indeed the Falcons’ preferred outcome, and the sides will have until July 15 to agree to one. Pitts began his career with the Falcons by posting a 1,000-yard season, his first and final spent with Ryan. He’s since logged consecutive 600-yard seasons in 2023 and 2024 before showing legitimate promise in 2025, a campaign in which he logged a career-high 88 receptions for 928 yards and a career-best five receiving touchdowns. With Stefanski now in charge and a handful of dynamically talented playmakers on the roster, the coach knows Penix will need a reliable tight end. Atlanta will proceed into 2026 with the hopes Pitts can build on his productive 2025 showing and blossom under the new coach. |
| AFC WEST |
| LOS ANGELES CHARGERSThe Chargers are in the market for a new center. Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com: Chargers offensive lineman Bradley Bozeman announced his retirement on Monday. Bozeman, 31, started 33 of 34 possible games at center the past two seasons for the Chargers. The Ravens made Bozeman a sixth-round pick in 2018, and he started 49 games in his four seasons in Baltimore. He made 32 starts at left guard and 17 at center. He made 28 starts at center for the Panthers in 2022-23. “After eight seasons in the NFL, I’m ready for my next chapter,” Bozeman wrote on Instagram. “This game has given me so much — lessons, lifelong friendships, and memories my family will carry forever. I’ve poured everything I had into this journey, and I walk away grateful and proud. “Thank you to every teammate, coach, and fan I was blessed to cross paths with along the way. Thank you to my amazing family who supported me every step of this journey, to my three amazing kids — Brody, Bailey, and Boone — who made every sacrifice worth it, and especially to my unbelievable wife, my ride or die from the very beginning. I couldn’t have done any of this without you! “Someone once told me, ‘Every career — no matter how decorated — ends in a trash bag.’ The game moves on. Someone fills your spot. I’m just thankful God gave me the chance to take the ride. On to the next chapter of life at the farm!” |
| AFC EAST |
| NEW YORK JETSRich Cimini of ESPN.com on how reports/rumors about owner Woody Johnson scared off DC candidate Wink Martindale: (Coach Aaron) Glenn completed the staff Thursday with four hires on defense. The entire staff overhaul was curious in that he waited three weeks after the season before firing seven assistants on Jan. 22 — well into the hiring cycle. In the ensuing days, it got really weird. He brought in veteran coach Wink Martindale for a second interview on Jan. 24, creating the perception that he had found his new defensive coordinator. There are conflicting versions of why he didn’t get the job, centering on whether Glenn had decided between the first and second interview to remove playcalling from the coordinator job. Martindale’s interest was based on his ability to run his own defense, and he came away from the second meeting under the impression that Glenn had changed the parameters of the job, according to a source close to Martindale. About a week earlier, Glenn had attended organizational meetings at owner Woody Johnson’s home in Palm Beach, Florida. The timing of those meetings, coupled with the seemingly abrupt end to Martindale’s candidacy, fueled speculation that Johnson, who has a reputation for meddling, had instructed Glenn to run the defense himself. People in Glenn’s camp say that isn’t true, that it was his decision to take control of the defense — part of a detailed offseason plan presented to Johnson. On Jan. 28, Glenn hired the relatively unknown Duker — seemingly an eleventh-hour candidate. He wasn’t among the initial eight to interview. Duker, most recently the Miami Dolphins’ passing game coordinator, has no playcalling experience, but he has familiarity with Glenn’s system. He coached in it for three seasons in Detroit, so there should be nothing lost in translation. A day before Duker’s hiring, Glenn parted ways with Engstrand, one of the coaches he took with him from Detroit. He was open to keeping Engstrand in a reduced role — no playcalling — but the result was a clean break. In the end, Glenn wound up replacing most of his key assistants on offense. Defense, too. It was a prolonged process, clunky at times. Glenn’s coaching future could hinge on whether he got it right. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| RAMS OFFER CHANGES TO FUMBLE RULEThe entire season turned when TV rules analyst called the NFL and suggested a path to a replay review that gave the Seahawks a stunning two-point conversion long after the door seemed shut. Now, LAR wants to keep any team from ever being so done in again. Mike Florio seems to endorse their two-pronged proposal: The Rams have indeed made a proposal based on the nutty two-point play from the Week 16 overtime thriller in Seattle. The initial report merely explained that a proposal was submitted. The details of the proposal have emerged. Per a source with knowledge of the situation, the Rams have made two separate proposals. Under the first, a backward pass that is tipped by a defensive player and goes past the line of scrimmage would be treated like a fumble. This means that, during the final two minutes of a half, on fourth down, or on a conversion attempt, only the player who fumbled can recover the ball and advance it. If another offensive player recovers the ball, the offense gets the ball at the spot of the fumble. As applied to the two-point attempt in Rams-Seahawks, the recovery of the loose ball in the end zone by running back Zach Charbonnet would not have resulted in a successful conversion. Seattle would have gotten two points only if quarterback Sam Darnold had recovered the ball. Although that same situation will rarely happen, the reasoning makes sense. The defense disrupted the attempted backward pass. A fluke bounce sent the live ball beyond the line of scrimmage. In the situations where a fumble can’t be recovered and advanced by any player except the one who fumbled it, a backward pass that is batted beyond the line of scrimmage would be treated the same way. The Rams’ second proposal would limit the time for the initiation of a replay review, capping it at either 40 seconds or a minute. Basically, if the replay process is going to activate, it needs to happen more quickly in order to keep the game moving. For the Seahawks-Rams play, 100 seconds elapsed between the time Charbonnet recovered the ball and the moment referee Brad Allen announced that the play was under further review. The kickoff and kick-return teams were on the field and ready to proceed. The absence of a specific deadline for starting the review process allows potentially protracted delays — and opens the door for (as happened in this case) someone from outside the apparatus alerting the league to the potential need for a review. While the league eventually got the Rams-Seahawks play right, the Rams’ thinking is that no review should take that long to get started. As it relates to the quirk that allows backward passes to hit the ground and be recovered and advanced, the Rams’ proposal would eliminate situations in which the backward pass is deflected forward and crosses the line of scrimmage. Again, something like this may not happen again, for years. It makes sense, now that the league has witnessed that specific outcome, for the NFL to consider whether it wants to allow that same thing to possibly happen in the future. |
| SCHEFTER AND RAPOPORTAndrew Marchand of The Athletic: NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport and ESPN’s Adam Schefter go scoop for scoop, with the difference between winning and losing often being a matter of seconds. In April, ESPN and the NFL Network will be under the same Disney umbrella — Rapoport and Schefter will be teammates. How long that lasts is still to be determined, as Rapoport’s contract is up in May. “If we were to work together, I think that would be awesome,” Rapoport told The Athletic, while confirming his current contract’s end date. “I have no idea if it is going to happen. But it would be like The Avengers.” A little corporate synergy reference never hurt Disney negotiations, though the next film in the Avengers series is titled “Doomsday.” The Schefter-Rapoport dynamic is one of the sidelights in the recently approved deal that gave the league a 10 percent stake in ESPN for a variety of the league’s media assets, including NFL Network. While Schefter and Rapoport engage in an almost daily post-off to be first on X, there is more to their jobs. The analogy that probably best describes how NFL Network is expected to live in an ESPN universe is the SEC Network. ESPN’s most popular subject will continue to be the NFL, but if you want non-stop coverage of the league, NFL Network will be available. Ultimately, between the two networks, there is going to be no shortage of on-air hits for the top insiders. What ESPN executives are going to do about the expanded NFL reporting staff is still to be determined. “Just so we are clear, I don’t know what is coming,” Rapoport said. “No one has told me, ‘It’s going to be like this. It’s going to be like that.’ There are a lot of things I don’t know. A lot of people don’t know, but I’m excited because ESPN is very good at what it does. From my understanding, it is going to be more football, more coverage, investing in NFL Network and making it as best as it could possibly be. “If it is anything like ESPN and SEC Network, that would be great. SEC Network is awesome. ESPN’s coverage of college football is enhanced by it. If that is sort of the way it is, then I think that would be, that would be great. I don’t know what I’ll end up doing.” ESPN has a lot of NFL insiders and analysts, but Schefter is the clear leader on news. When Schefter joined ESPN from NFL Network in 2009, he did so as No. 1 and No. 1A with Chris Mortensen. Mortensen warmly welcomed Schefter, and the duo worked side by side, even on its premier pregame show, “NFL Sunday Countdown.” Schefter, 59, and Rapoport, 46, could conceivably recreate this setup, though, both trying to beat each other by seconds for transactional news would have likely have to be put to the side. “If it’s me doing similar things that I do now, under the same umbrella, that would be great,” Rapoport said. “If it is working with Schefter, (that works, too.) No one has told me that’s going to be the way it is. Remember, I grew up watching Schefter and Mort dominate the news. Obviously, I’ve been watching Adam for a long time. He is the reason my job exists, just to be totally honest, in the form it does. That is something that is not lost on me. I wouldn’t have this job the way I do if he didn’t sort of create it.” |
| QB CAROUSELHenry McKenna of FOXSports.com spins the QB carousel: This is an early look at where I think the QBs will land — and a ranking based on how well I think they’ll perform in 2026. 8. Geno SmithNew home: Miami DolphinsSmith’s tenure in Las Vegas was messy. And that’s being generous. But remember that — just the season prior — he was leading the league in passing yards for the Seattle Seahawks. He’s still a good player. He’s not the type of player who can exceed his circumstances. Miami is rebuilding, and the Dolphins aren’t exactly an exciting place to land. But Smith isn’t in an exciting place in his career either. So this marriage happens by necessity. 7. Kirk CousinsNew home: Minnesota VikingsIf coach Kevin O’Connell had the choice between Aaron Rodgers and Cousins, it wouldn’t be an easy choice. Rodgers’ game is eroding. Cousins showed signs of renewed life. Rodgers is currently the better player, but probably has only one more year in him. Cousins is a plug-and-play fit in the system — and has a runway of 3-4 years. Ultimately, the Vikings have to operate as if J.J. McCarthy isn’t the answer. And so I think they pounce on Cousins, the all-around safer pick (compared to Rodgers and McCarthy). Cousins will get O’Connell’s system humming again. 6. Daniel JonesNew home: Indianapolis ColtsOK, so the Colts technically wouldn’t be new for Jones, who is a free agent and could end up in a handful of spots. But he and the Colts want to work on a long-term deal, per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. So it’s a matter of when — not if — Indy locks him down as its QB. I’m not sure how Jones will look when he returns from his Achilles injury. I’m not sure how long it’ll take him to recover — or if he can even play in 2026. I’m also not sure how Shane Steichen and Chris Ballard’s job security will look. But apparently, Jones will almost certainly sign a Colts contract this offseason. So that’s where I’ll place him. In the meantime, Indy needs someone else who can start in Week 1. And it’ll have to be someone who won’t get Steichen or Ballard fired. So … 5. Tua TagovailoaNew home: Indianapolis ColtsThe Dolphins are going to do everything they can to part ways with Tua. There are massive salary-cap complications, but it seems like Miami’s new coach Jeff Haffley wants to start anew at the position. So I suspect Miami will either cut Tua with a post-June 1 designation — or trade him while eating most of his salary. (Generally, a QB’s salary passes to the next team in a trade, but in this case, the Dolphins will have to pay most of it, because otherwise, no one would trade for Tua.) But here’s the thing with Tua … because he’s set to make so much money from Miami, I think he’ll pick a place that prioritizes on-field support (rather than finances). That’s where the Colts present a unique opportunity. They wouldn’t pay him much, but they could insert Tua into an excellent offense for somewhere between 8-17 games. This offense helped a long retired Philip Rivers look serviceable on the fly, after all. So Tua shows up for the Colts and shows the league he can still play. And Jones takes over when he’s healthy. It’s not great to be a placeholder. But Tua is almost certainly looking at a QB2 job if he doesn’t bite at a bridge job like Indy’s. 4. Mac JonesNew home: Atlanta FalconsKevin Stefanski is a really good fit for Jones. And the Falcons offense has enough weapons to support the QB, who — everyone can plainly see — isn’t a world-beater. Jones doesn’t have a no-trade clause, but I suspect the 49ers will help him land in the right place. In Atlanta, there’s enough to like and enough to feel optimistic about. Quarterback Michael Penix poses a threat, but a small one, given he’s a remnant of the past regime. Jones could find himself in the right place at the right time to do what Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith have all done: reinvent themselves. 3. Kyler MurrayNew home: New York JetsMurray finished the season on injured reserve, and the new Cardinals regime (led by coach Mike LaFleur) is not going to keep him, per NFL Network. I hope that Aaron Glenn and Frank Reich are the guys that Murray needs to find a new tier to his development. Murray plateaued in Arizona, where — for reasons currently unknown — he couldn’t find the degree of consistency that is an absolute requisite for a franchise QB. My sense is Murray is overly preoccupied with the big play. I also think there is evidence that he was often under-prepared. (Whether that’s on the coaching staff or on him, I don’t know.) Maybe he can shed his bad habits in New York. 2. Aaron RodgersNew home: Arizona CardinalsHere’s a weird one, because this is clearly the third-best destination. But I suspect Rodgers is going to stall his decision past the point of the Steelers’ patience. Remember: Rodgers takes his offseason decisions slowly, often after free agency and the draft. If he retires late in the offseason, it would leave his team without a QB. And this isn’t an offseason where the Steelers can afford to wait for Rodgers to come out of an ayahuasca-driven darkness retreat. So when he emerges, he’ll see the Steelers have a new QB. But something tells me that the Cardinals will be interested in him. Arizona’s new coach Mike LaFleur is Matt LaFleur’s brother, and of course, Matt coached Rodgers in Green Bay. While it wasn’t always the happiest marriage, it was telling that Rodgers stood up for Matt when his job security came under fire. I think that might have built a bridge between Rodgers and the LaFluer family that could land the QB in Arizona for 2026. 1. Malik WillisNew home: Pittsburgh SteelersThere’s no better fit for Willis than in Pittsburgh. That’s largely because of the combination of DK Metcalf, Jaylen Warren and Mike McCarthy. It would be a nice core to build around. But it’s also clearly not enough. The Steelers need to keep investing in their roster, which coach Mike Tomlin elevated into playoff contention every year. There just wasn’t enough for Rodgers to work with last year. Willis’ dual-threat skills could upgrade the unit — even before they add more talent at the OL and playmaker spots. But that shouldn’t stop them from filling in an offensive unit that looked threadbare during Metcalf’s absences. |
