The NFL makes its case to ban the “hop-drop” tackle – a term we only first heard in 2023.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Hip-drop tackles are much more dangerous than other tackles, according to the NFL executive in charge of health and safety issues.

NFL Executive Vice President Jeff Miller said today that the injury rate on hip-drop tackles is about 20 to 25 times greater than on other tackles. Miller also said defensive players are using hip-drop tackles more than ever before.

Given those concerns, Miller said “it’s certainly my hope” that the NFL will ban hip drops this off-season, according to Judy Battista of NFL Media.

Still, there are real concerns about whether hip-drop tackles can be defined adequately to create a rule that the players understand and the officials call consistently. A hip-drop tackle could loosely be defined as when a tackler grabs a ball carrier and drops his body weight directly onto the ball carrier’s legs or back, but the precise language of the rule will be important.

The NFL Players Association has so far resisted calls to ban the hip-drop tackle. Even as the NFL insists that banning the move would be to the players’ benefit.

This may be one of those things that sounds like a good idea – until you open up a can of worms by doing so.

Speaking of which, the fumble through the end zone leading to the defensive team taking over at the 20 seems unfair.  But what would you replace it with?  Right now, it looks like it is going to stay the same.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Fumbles that go into the end zone and out of bounds will likely continue to go to the defense, after the NFL Competition Committee discussed the rule today.

Talks about changing that rule didn’t generate much traction in the discussion today, according to Judy Battista of NFL Media.

The general sentiment of the Competition Committee is that it’s the ball carrier’s responsibility to control the ball and it’s not a rule that needs to be changed.

Some view it as an unfair burden on the offense to lose the ball on fumbles that go out of bounds in the end zone, when fumbles that go out of bounds between the goal lines stay with the fumbling team. But changing that rule would require three-fourths of the teams to vote for it, and the Competition Committee is not inclined to recommend to the teams that they change it.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

The 49ers DC position has been vacant for more that two weeks now.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com says some candidates are emerging.

The last remaining coordinator job in the NFL is close to being filled.

49ers coach Kyle Shanahan told Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area that he “should finish it all up this week” in hiring a defensive coordinator.

The 49ers have completed interviews with former Chargers head coach Brandon Staley and 49ers defensive passing game specialist Nick Sorensen, Shanahan told Maiocco.

The 49ers are replacing Steve Wilks, who was fired on Feb. 14 after only one season as defensive coordinator.

49ers defensive backs coach Daniel Bullocks also is expected to interview for the position later in the week, and Shanahan told Maiocco that he likely will interview two additional external candidates later this week.

Staley, 41, spent two seasons and 14 games as the Chargers’ head coach before the team fired him during the 2023 season. He went 24-25, including 0-1 in the playoffs. The Chargers hired Staley in 2020 after he spent one season as Sean McVay’s defensive coordinator with the Rams.

Sorensen, 45, joined the 49ers’ staff in 2022 as a defensive assistant before his promotion to to defensive passing game specialist/nickel backs coach last year. He was the Jaguars’ special teams coordinator in 2021.

AFC WEST

DENVER

Jason Owens of YahooSports.com wonders who might be interested in QB RUSSELL WILSON.  He has five candidates:

Russell Wilson said on Sunday that he’d like to finish his career with the Denver Broncos.

Whether he means it or not, the decision’s not his.

The reality is that there’s a very real chance that Wilson doesn’t play in Denver again and suits up with another team next season. The decision ultimately lies with a Broncos team that benched him amid mediocre play last season in a move that carried contract implications — most notably avoiding a $37 million injury guarantee for 2025 if he couldn’t pass a physical come March.

Broncos have to pay Wilson, take cap hit either way

Healthy or not, that $37 million will be guaranteed if Wilson remains on the roster by the March 17 deadline, meaning the Broncos have a major decision to make in the coming weeks. They’re on the hook for big money and a big cap hit either way, so there’s little motivation to keep him unless they want him for football reasons.

Per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, parting with Wilson will result in an $85 million cap hit that could be split across two seasons depending on how it’s designated. They’ll owe him the $39 million he’s guaranteed this season regardless. Keeping him would mean a cap hit of roughly $90 million split over two seasons. And the Broncos would owe the $37 million guarantee for 2025.

Wilson could be available at a discount

Thanks to offset language in his contract, the Broncos will be on the hook for that cap hit and his 2024 salary guarantee, meaning that Wilson could be had by another team for as little as the league minimum whether acquired via trade or release and free agency. Thanks to a no-trade clause in his contract, Wilson has the final say on where he would land outside of Denver.

So where might Wilson play in the event that the Broncos move on? Here are five teams that could potentially have interest in landing Wilson for cheap.

Pittsburgh Steelers

After keeping Kenny Pickett on the bench in the playoffs, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said in January that he wants competition for his third-year quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky’s been released, and Mason Rudolph is slated for free agency, meaning the Steelers will have to look elsewhere.

The Steelers are reportedly interested in pursuing Ryan Tannehill, who will hit free agency after five seasons with the Tennessee Titans. Wilson on a cheap contract could also prove an attractive option.

Ultimately, the Steelers would prefer that Pickett emerges from whatever competition he’s in after investing a first-round pick on him. But that’s no guarantee considering his tepid first two NFL seasons. Could Wilson revive his career with a stable franchise and a roster built to compete now?

Las Vegas Raiders

After seven appearances for Las Vegas, the Jimmy Garoppolo experiment is over. With Antonio Pierce entering his first offseason as head coach, the Raiders are widely expected to release Garoppolo before an $11.25 million roster bonus kicks in, meaning they’re in the market for a quarterback.

Aidan O’Connell remains in the mix after flashing some promise in 10 starts as a rookie. The Raiders also have the 13th pick in the draft, which they could use to roll the dice on a quarterback not named Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels. Either way, the addition of a veteran in Wilson who’s been to multiple Pro Bowls and won a Super Bowl could prove attractive. That he knows the inner workings of the division-rival Broncos is an added bonus.

Atlanta Falcons

After 13 starts produced 12 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and few successful downfield plays in 2023, Desmond Ridder’s time as Atlanta’s starter appears to be done. He was benched twice in favor of Taylor Heinicke before starting the season finale against the New Orleans Saints.

The Falcons are in the market for an upgrade who can maximize the potential of high-upside weapons Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson. Is Wilson that guy? His last two seasons suggest that he’s not. But he could be worth a low-risk roll of the dice if the Falcons don’t make a move for a player like Justin Fields should Fields become available. Wilson could also act as a bridge if the Falcons prioritize a quarterback in the first round of the draft, where they’re slated to pick at No. 8.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings would presumably prefer to carry on with Kirk Cousins. But that’s no guarantee. Cousins is slated to become an unrestricted free agent in the truest sense. He’s not eligible for the franchise tag. And he could ask for more than the Vikings are willing to pay a 35-year-old coming off an Achilles injury.

In that instance, the Vikings will be in desperate need of a replacement for Cousins that didn’t emerge in his injury absence last season. It will be an appealing position for whomever takes the job with two of the league’s top young receivers in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison at his disposal. There are much worse spots for Wilson to land.

New England Patriots

The Mac Jones era is over after he was benched repeatedly in favor of Bailey Zappe last season. The Patriots are in position to draft his replacement with the No. 3 pick as Jerod Mayo takes the head coaching reins from Bill Belichick.

That pick could very well be used to select electric LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, assuming that Williams and Maye go off the board first. Recent NFL history makes a strong case for letting young quarterbacks learn the ropes from the bench. See Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love.

In that instance, Wilson could emerge as an attractive bridge in New England as a mentor with Super Bowl experience. Wilson could also be the target if New England opts to draft an elite position player like Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.

LAS VEGAS

The Raiders will pass on being tender with RB JOSH JACOBS.  Michael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com:

The Raiders plan to make free agent running back Josh Jacobs a contract offer, but they won’t put the franchise tag on him, as they did a year ago.

Franchising Jacobs would mean offering him a one-year contract worth $14,149,200 guaranteed, and that’s something the Raiders won’t do, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.

If Jacobs did get that franchise tender he’d likely sign it immediately, as that’s the kind of money NFL running backs just can’t get anymore.

Last year Jacobs’ production declined significantly: He had a career-low 805 rushing yards, a career-low six rushing touchdowns, averaged a career-low 3.5 yards per carry and picked up a first down on a career-low 14.6 percent of his carries. He didn’t have the kind of year that would maximize his negotiating position in free agency. But he’ll hope to get one of the better contracts available to an NFL running back, whether that’s in Las Vegas or elsewhere.

AFC NORTH

CINCINNATI

The Bengals signal they have no interest in letting WR TEE HIGGINS follow Brian Callahan to Tennessee or head anywhere else for that matter.  Ben Baby of ESPN.com:

The Bengals have made their first big decision of the offseason, placing the franchise tag on wide receiver Tee Higgins.

The move positions the Bengals to retain Higgins for at least one more season. Should the two sides fail to come to a long-term agreement before July 15, Higgins will be restricted to a one-year deal with the club worth $21.816 million, which is the leaguewide franchise tag amount for wide receivers in 2024.

The deadline for teams to use the franchise or transition tag is March 5.

Higgins, a second-round draft pick in 2020, was set to enter free agency after his rookie contract with Cincinnati expired. In his first four seasons with the team, he caught 257 passes for 3,684 yards and 24 touchdowns. In seven postseason games, he has 31 receptions for 457 yards and three touchdowns.

“Tee has done an outstanding job for us since we drafted him in 2020,” Bengals coach Zac Taylor said in a statement. “I’m glad that he’ll continue to be a big part of our offense and our team.”

This is the second consecutive offseason when Higgins’ long-term future with the club has been a topic of conversation. At last year’s NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis, Bengals executive Duke Tobin emphatically shot down a potential trade involving Higgins.

However, the two sides were unable to come to terms on a long-term extension before Higgins started the final season of his current deal. Higgins had an injury-plagued 2023 season that restricted him to 12 games. He totaled 42 receptions, 656 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Higgins has publicly and privately expressed his desire to remain in Cincinnati for multiple years. But that is just one high-priced part of Cincinnati’s future projected offense.

In 2023, quarterback Joe Burrow signed a five-year contract extension worth $275 million, which set the NFL record for the highest annual average salary. Burrow’s salary cap hit will be $46.3 million in 2025, according to Roster Management System.

Wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is also poised to be one of the highest-paid players at his position. Chase has made the Pro Bowl in each of his first three NFL seasons, has set multiple franchise receiving records and is looking to earn a salary at the top of the market.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

Has QB C.J. STROUD successfully recruited RB SAQUON BARKLEY to the Texans?  John Crumpler of USA TODAY:

The noise around Saquon Barkley has become deafening.

The former 2018 No. 2 overall pick, NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and two-time Pro Bowler is a pending free agent from the New York Giants and a popular pairing with the Houston Texans after a season where they struggled to run the ball.

Those rumors have only grown louder over the last week when Barkley followed quarterback C.J. Stroud, receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell, running back Devin Singletary, and tight end Brevin Jordan on social media. He also liked tweets from Paul Wall pleading with the back to come to Houston.

On Sunday, KPRC reporter Aaron Wilson let it be known that Barkley’s interest with the Texans and their star rookie quarterback was more than simply having fun on social media.

“Saquon Barkley, it goes beyond him following guys on social media and hitting like,” Wilson said. “It’s a case of him communicating with top players, including C.J. Stroud, about a desire to play here. It is mutual, but they are keeping their options open.”

Wilson was quick to note that the team is open to bringing back incumbent starter Devin Singletary or exploring other options depending on how the market looks. This comes as no surprise, as Barkley is expected to be one of the more expensive free agents at the running back position this offseason.

Whether or not general manager Nick Casserio is able to reel in the Penn State product, it is an incredible turn of fortune for the Texans. A year ago, nobody could have ever imagined top free agents reaching out to the team, much less to their rookie quarterback after only one year.

Barkley joins Miami Dolphins cornerback Xavier Howard as a star player who who has made it public that he would be interested in joining the Texans. It’s unlikely they are the last.

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

Bill  T DION DAWKINS is still stewing over an incident during a game last year with the Jets.  Rich Cimini of ESPN.com:

The Buffalo Bills-New York Jets rivalry could reach a new level of nasty in 2024, thanks to Bills offensive tackle Dion Dawkins, who lashed out against the Jets and defensive end Micheal Clemons in an interview that dropped last week.

Dawkins, appearing on VladTV, called Clemons a “b—- boy” and accused him of instigating their postgame scuffle in the tunnel at Highmark Stadium on Nov. 19 after the Bills’ 32-6 victory. “Weirdos being weird,” Dawkins said, when asked directly about the fracas.

Speaking of the Jets, he said, “I hate them, all of them, bro. … When it comes to sports, there are people that play the sport because they love the sport. And then there’s people that play the sport just to try to be cool. I feel like they play the sport to try to be cool. Those are a bunch of dudes that just want to take pictures on Instagram. That’s whack.”

Dawkins did identify Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams as “valid” and said, “I like him.”

“The rest of them, don’t care, don’t like them,” he said.

Dawkins said Clemons was trash-talking quarterback Josh Allen during a TV timeout early in the fourth quarter.

“First of all, why are you talking to my quarterback? Don’t talk to my quarterback,” Dawkins said. “Stay over there. Don’t say nothing to none of my guys. Just stay over there, son. Don’t talk to 17. I’m really serious about that. Don’t talk to him. Don’t say nothing to him at all, right?”

After that, Clemons pointed to several individual players on the Bills, called out their numbers and cursed them out, according to Dawkins, who was infuriated.

“He went down the whole team, everybody on the field, pointing at us and just yapping his beat,” he said. “What am I supposed to do? I’m the OG. I’ve been on this line for the longest. I’m the one that’s going to punch you in your face.”

Dawkins said he warned Clemons, “Remember what you said, son.”

One play later, the Bills ran a running play in which Dawkins pulled to Clemons’ side. They met, head-to-head, with Dawkins knocking him down. Claiming he didn’t hear a whistle, Dawkins jumped on Clemons with what he described as a “belly flop.” They both got up and Clemons shoved him to the ground. It resulted in an unnecessary-roughness penalty for Dawkins and an eventual fine.

“That made for a chippy fourth quarter, setting the stage for the postgame altercation. Dawkins said Clemons followed him up the tunnel but was afraid to challenge him face-to-face.

“If you’re going to run up on somebody, run all the way up on somebody,” Dawkins said. “Don’t run up and stop 5 yards behind and just start talking. So, when he did that, I’m like, ‘First of all, you really don’t want to fight me. You’re really a b—-.'”

No punches were thrown, but Dawkins admitted that he pushed Clemons during the skirmish. They were separated by players.

Clemons never commented about the incident. On Monday, Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner responded to an X post of a video clip from Dawkins’ interview with VladTV.

“I play this game because I love it and it takes care of my family,” Gardner said on X. “It also gives me a platform to inspire the youth. I have no ‘NFL beef’ with anybody. I didn’t know that was a thing ’til I just watched this video.”

The Jets and Bills split the season series, with the Jets taking the season opener in overtime. In that game, they lost quarterback Aaron Rodgers to a season-ending Achilles tear on a sack by Leonard Floyd.

NEW YORK JETS

The Jets have jettisoned G LAKEN TOMLINSON.  Jared Schwartz of the New York Post:

The Jets will have yet another hole to fill on their offensive line.

They are cutting guard Laken Tomlinson, The Post confirmed, after two seasons with the team. The move will save the Jets roughly $8 million in cap space.

For a unit that struggled mightily last season when they went through 13 different starting combinations, the Jets will now have three openings to fill on the offensive line.

Tomlinson signed a lucrative three-year, $40 million deal with the Jets ahead of the 2022 season and was expected to be a key cog and help stabilize the middle of their offensive line.

But, though he’s an ironman and played every single game the past two years, Tomlinson, 32, struggled to justify his steep price.

Pro Football Focus gave Tomlinson a woeful 55.0 overall grade last year, which ranked 53rd among all guards.

He allowed seven sacks, 10 quarterback hits and 51 quarterback pressures, according to the outlet.

His run blocking was even worse, and he received a 49.6 run-block grade.

A first-round pick by the Lions (No. 28 overall) in 2015, Tomlinson spent two years in Detroit and five with the 49ers — where he had emerged as one of the league’s most dependable guards — before signing with the Jets.

Tackles Mekhi Becton and Duane Brown are both free agents and are not expected to be back with the Jets, and now cutting Tomlinson creates another void.

Joe Tippmann, a second-round pick last year, and stud Alijah Vera-Tucker are the only two offensive linemen currently penciled in as starters.

Tippmann will likely play center, where he was used most of last season, while Vera-Tucker could play at either guard or tackle — both positions he has played with the Jets.

Vera-Tucker tore his Achilles during the Jets’ Week 5 win over the Broncos, and he said in January that he wasn’t sure if he’d be ready for the start of next season.

So if Vera-Tucker is not ready to go Week 1, that would be four holes on the offensive line the Jets will have to fill.

Regardless, the Jets will have to add at least one starting guard this offseason, if not two.

Kevin Zeitler, Cody Whitehair, Jon Feliciano, Robert Hunt and Ezra Cleveland will be among the top guards who will be on the open market, and the Jets have five picks in the 2024 NFL Draft they can use to address the position.

Cutting Tomlinson represents a failure for general manager Joe Douglas, who vowed at his introductory press conference in 2019 that he would fix the offensive line.

“We’ve invested a lot of resources in that position,” Douglas said at his end-of-season press conference in January. “… It’s going to be going back to every single decision-making process because we have gotten some decisions right there. I feel like we do have a few cornerstone players on that offensive line moving forward and building around those guys and keep adding to the group.”

Douglas’ biggest free-agent investment on the offensive line is now being cut five years after that statement, and the Jets find themselves nearly at square one again to fill out and improve the unit.

THIS AND THAT

PETER KING

We’re going to have to find new sources for our Monday version of the DB.  The great Peter King announced his retirement, at least from writing the Monday column forNBCSports.com,  Steve Gardner with the short version at USA TODAY:

Legendary pro football columnist Peter King has announced his retirement from full-time writing.

King broke the news to readers in his weekly “Football Morning in America” column for NBC Sports, calling himself “the luckiest man on the face of the earth.”

King is calling it quits after 44 years as a sportswriter, covering the last 40 Super Bowls and writing his weekly column − which was originally called “Monday Morning Quarterback” when it began at Sports Illustrated − for the past 27 years.

In his farewell column, King listed several factors that led to his decision to retire − among them his declining interest in the day-to-day news cycle, a desire to try something new, his unsuccessful attempts to scale back the scope of his 10,000-word columns, and a need to spend more time with his family.

Here’s part of what King wrote:

I had this thought a couple of weeks ago, during Super Bowl week in Las Vegas: I’d really like to watch the Super Bowl on TV. You always want what you don’t have, right? I’ve been to 40 Super Bowls in a row, and every year when people talk about the commercials or the mistakes made by the TV crew or the hubbub surrounding the game, mostly I have no idea what they’re talking about, because from age 27 to age 66 (now), I’ve been in the stadium for the games, and worked the locker rooms and coaches’ offices afterward.

Who’s complaining? Not me. I’m the luckiest man on the face of the earth. To be a long-termer in an increasingly short-term business, to write this column for 27 years and to be a sportswriter for 44, well, that’s something I’ll always be grateful for. Truly, I’ve loved it all.

I’m retiring*. I use an asterisk because I truly don’t know what the future holds for me. I probably will work at something, but as I write this I have no idea what it will be. Maybe it will be something in the media world, but just not Football Morning in America (nee Monday Morning Quarterback).

Four reasons.

It’s time. As most of you know, I’ve mostly moved away from the day-to-day minutiae of covering the league. Coaching searches, free-agency, the lead-up to the draft … It’s important, obviously. And last year I started noticing how much of it I simply didn’t care about. I had to force myself to be interested in things other than training camps and the games, and that’s no way to do this job. I thought about walking away after last season. I remember asking Andy Reid last year in his office after the Super Bowl win over Philadelphia, “Are you gonna retire?” His retort: “Are you?” I didn’t know what to say, because I’d been thinking about it. But I still liked doing the work so much that I decided to come back for the year, pretty sure it would be my last.

Is that all there is? Don’t mean to be so deep; many of you who know me understand I’m pretty shallow. But I’ve found myself wondering, Am I meant to do one thing from the time I walk out of college until the day they put me in the ground? And who knows—I may find myself jonesing to do something in the media when I’m bored in three months. But it’s like when Atlanta writer Jeff Schultz retired in December and said, “Let me get bored. I want to know what that feels like.” That resonated. I know I’ll want to do something with my time eventually. I just don’t know what it is.

One other thing that’s hard to understand if you’re not me. Last year my big boss at NBC, Sam Flood, suggested I cut the column back from the average of 10,500 words to maybe 6,000 or so, and set a hard deadline Sunday nights so I wouldn’t work till 4 a.m. It sounded good at the time. Two or three legit days off during the week, then a shorter sprint to the finish Sunday night/Monday morning. But as the season started, I pondered what to cut entirely and what to write shorter, and it just felt like if I did, it wouldn’t be the column the way I liked it anymore. And there’s this part of me that couldn’t change. It’s the way my brain works. Example: I’d been reading some old stories of mine trying to figure out what I wanted to put in this column. And I read something about John Madden—he coached his last game at age 42. Last Wednesday morning, I woke up a little after 3, thinking about Madden and age 42, and as happens most nights, I went to the bathroom. Instead of just going to the bathroom, I started thinking about that amazing Madden number. I took out my phone and looked up some coaches on pro-football-reference.com, and I realized: Holy crap! Andy Reid’s coached 429 games since turning 42! And so that became one of my “Numbers Game” items for this final column. I was a little excited about it. I could not go back to sleep. At 66, it’s hard enough to fall back to sleep once you use the bathroom at night—and especially hard if your brain starts working like that.

My family. The sacrifices my wife, Ann, and my kids, Laura and Mary Beth, and their families have made for me to do this job at the highest level have been significant. To do this job well, you’ve got to have some selfishness in you, and you’ve got to miss time at home—lots of it. I don’t feel great about lots of those times, but I don’t regret them either. To do this job well, it’s a fact that some things in your family will suffer. Also: All three male members of my family (dad, two brothers) died by the age of 64, before ever experiencing retirement. And my buddy Don Banks, dead at 57 in a Canton hotel room in 2019. All of it matters.

There are things about this job I’ll never find in another gig, no matter how much fun any future job is. In college, I realized who I was. Nothing made me happier than even the littlest scoop about the Student Senate, or the new provost search, at Ohio University. It’s never left me. Breaking the four-game Lawrence Taylor drug suspension in 1988. Brett Favre spilling the secret to me of going into rehab, and why, in 1996. Sitting in the 49ers draft room in 2017 and hearing rookie GM John Lynch tell negotiator Paraag Marathe, “See if we can get one last thing with Chicago,” and then watching Marathe wrangle an extra third-round pick in trade with the Bears. Getting Andy Reid to tell me everything, on camera in the privacy of his coach’s office, about “Corn Dog,” the winning play in last year’s Super Bowl. And the immediacy of it all—5.5 hours after leaving Reid, Football Morning in America posted and the world felt what I felt sitting across from Reid: You’re kidding! The winning play in the Super Bowl is called Corn Dog?

That’s the other part of this—it never would have worked without an audience. Some of you have stayed with me since I started this in 1997, when my football editor at SI, Steve Robinson, asked me to empty my notebook every Monday after I wrote my weekly football column in Sports Illustrated. We all like to feel like we’re read, and your reactions, good and bad, 250 or so every week over the past few years, have really added a lot to my life in the business.

Recently—maybe you’ve sensed I had an expiration date on me—I’ve gotten quite a few emails atpeterkingfmia@gmail.com, thanking me for the column over the years. An email from Thomas B. Richter of Germany showed up Sunday morning. It was long and heartfelt and ended with: “Peter, I can’t speak for others, but I assume many are with me in feeling: Thank you for writing, because every weekend you have done something good to me for the past 22 years.”

Sentiments like that will stick with me forever. Next week, I’m going to run your letters as my column, so I’d like to hear whatever you’d like to say. I mean it when I say whatever—because I value your rip jobs too. (Most of them.) And from all over the world, I hope. A couple of weeks ago, I got my first email from Siberia. So cool. I’m missing Greenland and Madagascar and Yellowknife, for what it’s worth.

FREE AGENT QBs

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com puts the class of free agents in Tiers (of which some are empty):

Quarterback

Tier 1: Franchise players

Free agents: None

It’s rare to see a quarterback of this caliber hit unrestricted free agency. The exceptions are often players coming off injuries (Drew Brees in 2006), in their late-30s or older (Tom Brady in 2020) or both (Peyton Manning in 2012). Kurt Warner might be the lone exception here, as his performance had declined with the Rams and Giants before surging again after joining the Cardinals in 2005.

Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters

Free agents: Kirk Cousins, Vikings

Cousins is unquestionably the best quarterback on the market, though he’s recovering from his first serious injury after he tore his right Achilles in late October. Before the injury, Cousins’ 63.6 QBR was the ninth-best mark in the league. His 11.2% off-target rate ranked No. 1 over the first half of the season, and he did it without Justin Jefferson for a chunk of that time.

The last time Cousins was a free agent, he parlayed his leverage into a three-year deal worth a fully guaranteed $84 million. After two seasons, he parlayed that contract and Minnesota’s need for cap relief into two additional deals. In all, he earned $185 million over his six years with the Vikings for an average of just under $31 million per season.

Any team hoping to win over the next three years that isn’t in position to land one of the top starters in the 2024 draft should be trying to pursue Cousins. That’s a group that includes the Broncos, Buccaneers, Falcons, Raiders, Steelers and Titans, with the Dolphins and Seahawks as outside candidates if they move on from their current starters. Some of those teams will opt for longer shots in the draft, but if Cousins’ recovery is on track, he should be able to get one more significant deal as a 35-year-old free agent.

Average annual salary projection: $51 million per season

Tier 3: Capable starters

Free agents: None

Possible cap casualties: Russell Wilson, Broncos

Here’s where we get our first cap casualty, and there doesn’t need to be much projection here. The Broncos benched Wilson at the end of the season to ensure that his $37 million salary for 2025 wouldn’t be triggered by an injury. Even though they owe him $39 million more in guarantees for 2024, they likely will cut him before free agency begins. In addition to giving up multiple first-round picks to acquire him, Denver will have paid Wilson $124 million for two seasons.

Wilson was disappointing and won’t make this sort of money again, but he was competent as a low-ceiling starter behind a Broncos offensive line that didn’t do him many favors. The former Seahawks standout didn’t show much as a downfield passer during his time in Denver, but he protected the football and posted a 26-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. If he wants to keep playing, one of the teams that misses out on Cousins should look toward Wilson.

Average annual salary projection: $1.3 million (Wilson will be collecting money from his Broncos deal and teams will have no reason to offset the money he’s already owed.)

Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups

Free agents: Jacoby Brissett, Commanders; Joe Flacco, Browns; Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers; Gardner Minshew, Colts; Ryan Tannehill, Titans; Jameis Winston, Saints

Possible cap casualties: Jimmy Garoppolo, Raiders

This is the passing-through tier, generally comprising players who either raised their stock or massively disappointed in 2023. Mayfield and Minshew proved they could lead teams with low expectations to winning records, while Flacco helped save Cleveland’s season with late-season heroics as its fourth quarterback. Garoppolo and Tannehill lost their jobs by Halloween and didn’t do much afterward, while Brissett and Winston spent their seasons on the bench.

Strictly on their 2023 merits, Mayfield and Minshew might be considered a tier higher and it’s entirely possible a team might view them as that caliber of passer and pay them accordingly. Given that they each signed for deals in the $3.5 million to $4 million range a year ago and lack prototypical NFL size, though, teams might not be willing to pay them in line with their performance from last season.

Several of the quarterbacks in this tier are probably more valuable to their 2023 teams than to others. The Saints should want to re-sign Winston to avoid more than $10 million in dead money from his old deals hitting their cap. Mayfield seemed to find a home with the Buccaneers. Minshew won’t be the starter in Indianapolis once top 2023 draft pick Anthony Richardson returns from injury, but if he’s going to be a backup anywhere, it might as well be in Indianapolis. Garoppolo won’t be returning to the Raiders, but a trip back to New England as the bridge quarterback to whomever the Patriots draft with the No. 3 overall pick seems like his most likely path.

Average annual salary projection: $9 million to $13 million per season

Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money

Free agents: Sam Darnold, 49ers; Drew Lock, Seahawks; Marcus Mariota, Eagles; Tyrod Taylor, Giants; Carson Wentz, Rams

These are the quarterbacks who will be first off the market for teams looking for veteran backups, a group that could include more than half of the league. Most of these players got meaningful guarantees on their last deal, with Wentz as the lone exception. His brief cameo with the Rams probably won’t move the needle, but his draft pedigree and the relatively positive vibes coming out of his time in Los Angeles should net him a guarantee as a backup somewhere.

In general, the players in this tier are going to struggle to land the sort of deals they received on their previous contracts, given they’re all at least a year older and didn’t do much to distinguish themselves. Lock led a comeback victory over the Eagles, but it’s unclear whether the new staff in Seattle will be as interested in him as the Pete Carroll regime. Darnold might get the biggest deal of the bunch, owing both to his draft résumé and the halo effect of playing under Kyle Shanahan.

Average annual salary projection: $4 million to $7 million per season

Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spot

Free agents: Joshua Dobbs, Vikings; Blaine Gabbert, Chiefs; Tyler Huntley, Ravens; Mason Rudolph, Steelers; Nate Sudfeld, Lions, Mitch Trubisky, Steelers

Possible cap casualties: Taylor Heinicke, Falcons

This final tier includes players who should be able to land spots on NFL rosters but who won’t have more than a modicum of guaranteed money when they sign, meaning they’ll have to compete for their roster spot in camp. Dobbs and Rudolph are the most conspicuously productive players in this bunch, but there wasn’t much interest in Dobbs each of the times he came available in 2023. Rudolph’s brief burst of production was out of line with his prior career performance, and he is likely to re-sign with the Steelers.

Average annual salary projection: $1.5 million per season

Restricted free agents: Jake Browning, Bengals

A separate section is required for restricted free agents, who are extremely unlikely to leave their existing teams. Browning is an exclusive rights free agent, meaning the Bengals can hold on to him simply by making him a qualifying offer at the league minimum. After Browning posted a 98.4 passer rating on 243 pass attempts while filling in for an injured Joe Burrow in 2023, making that offer will be an easy decision for Cincinnati.

2024 DRAFT

Here’s a Mock Draft from Danny Heifetz of The Ringer:

1 CHICAGO BEARS

CALEB WILLIAMS

QUARTERBACK  USC

Jim McMahon, perhaps the greatest Bears quarterback in franchise history, said in 2021, “I think [the Bears] are where quarterbacks go to die.” Between picks and trades, the Bears have invested 10 first-rounders into the quarterback position in the Super Bowl era—the most of any NFL team—yet Chicago is the only franchise that has never had a quarterback throw for 3,900 yards in a season. Williams has supernatural abilities on the field and supernatural confidence off it. He’ll need both to prove that great quarterbacks can not only survive in Chicago, but thrive.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Williams has top-tier arm talent and a natural feel for navigating the pocket to keep a play alive; when structure breaks down, he’s a special playmaker.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He doesn’t play on time consistently enough and leans too much on his improvisational talent.

2  WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

DRAKE MAYE

QUARTERBACK

NORTH CAROLINA

Washington will draft a quarterback. The only question is which one. Washington hired Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator, and while he worked with Williams at USC in 2023, the Air Raid–style offense Kingsbury ran at Texas Tech is similar to what Maye operated to much success at UNC in 2022. Maye replaced Sam Howell at UNC, and now Maye could be replacing Howell in the NFL, too.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Maye is big, has a strong arm, and brings a playmaker’s mentality; he has the moldable traits to develop into a top-10 quarterback.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He plays out of control at times and tries to do too much.

3 LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

JAYDEN DANIELS

QUARTERBACK

LSU

TRADE: The Raiders send the no. 13 pick, a 2025 first, and a 2026 first to the Patriots for the no. 3 pick.

Trade! The Patriots want a quarterback, but the Raiders blow them away by offering first-rounders in 2025 and 2026 to swap the third and 13th picks  (similar to the trade the 49ers made to move up to pick Trey Lance in 2021). New Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce recruited Daniels to Arizona State back in 2018. The two are still close. Daniels attended the Raiders’ Week 18 win over Denver in January, and there are bread crumbs indicating that he and the Raiders are mutually interested. The Raiders have always coveted speed, and Daniels has it.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Daniels is a prolific, playmaking quarterback who is accurate and aggressive pushing the ball downfield; he’s a force multiplier in the run game.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He has a thin frame and opens himself up to devastating hits; he lacks elite arm strength and is already 23 years old.

4 ARIZONA CARDINALS

MARVIN HARRISON JR.

WIDE RECEIVER

OHIO STATE

With the top quarterbacks off the board with the first three picks, the Cardinals get to sit at the fourth spot and take the best non-quarterback in the draft, Marvin Harrison Jr. He may be young, but he’s not so junior: He is 4 inches taller than his Hall of Fame father. Harrison Sr.’s biggest complaint about Jr.’s game is that he’s not enough of a diva. Harrison Jr. has the talent to be a top five receiver in football by the end of next year, and he is the perfect addition to the Cardinals offense, which has a franchise QB in Kyler Murray, an ascending tight end in Trey McBride, and last year’s first-rounder Paris Johnson Jr. at left tackle.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Harrison basically checks every box teams are looking for at receiver, combining elite speed and length with technical skill as both a route runner and catcher; it also doesn’t hurt that his dad is in the Hall of Fame.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He tends to play a little too tall and isn’t a big threat to break tackles in the open field. He dropped too many passes in 2023.

5 LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

JOE ALT

TACKLE

NOTRE DAME

New head coach Jim Harbaugh just won a national championship at Michigan with a road-grading offensive line. Before that, he transformed Stanford into a power football team (Stanford!). Adding Joe Alt (a.k.a. Alt-J) gives the Chargers another pillar, alongside former first-rounder Rashawn Slater, to protect quarterback Justin Herbert while also positioning them to maul teams in the run game. Either Alt or Slater will have to move to right tackle, but Slater played there in college and Alt seems athletic enough to move there without a problem.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Alt possesses top-tier length, nimble feet, and NFL bloodlines; he’s a day one starter at left tackle.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He gets caught leaning and falls off blocks; he’s so tall, he occasionally loses leverage.

6  NEW YORK GIANTS

MALIK NABERS

WIDE RECEIVER

LSU

The last time the Giants took a wide receiver this high, it was LSU’s Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014. This time it should be Nabers, who has even more straight-line speed than Beckham did in his prime. The Giants have offensive line woes to worry about too, and the team could easily go in that direction with this pick. But they are desperate for receiving help. Wide receiver Darius Slayton has led the Giants in receiving in three of the past five years even though he’s never gained more than 770 yards in a season. This team needs a playmaker, especially with Saquon Barkley likely leaving in free agency.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Nabers is a field-tilting speed merchant with big-play talent and elite production; he has rare, explosive traits that help him separate both before and after the catch.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He’s still raw and needs to develop more discipline as a route runner.

7  TENNESSEE TITANS

OLUMUYIWA FASHANU

TACKLE

PENN STATE

The knock on Fashanu is that he is raw as an NFL prospect. The Titans may see that as a plus. New head coach Brian Callahan—the former Bengals offensive coordinator—coaxed his father, Bill, to Tennessee from Cleveland, and Bill happens to be the league’s best offensive line coach (shout-out to the nepo babies for taking care of their boomer parents). The Titans enter this offseason with one of the worst offensive line situations in the league, but adding Fashanu alongside last year’s first-round guard Peter Skoronski would put this team back on the path to stability. It would also give Callahan (the younger one) a chance to see whether quarterback Will Levis can play.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Fashanu is a top-tier pass protector at left tackle who combines excellent length with nimble feet; he’s a plug-and-play starter on the offensive line.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He tends to lunge in the run game, causing him to fall off blocks.

8  MINNESOTA VIKINGS

J.J. MCCARTHY

QUARTERBACK

MICHIGAN

TRADE: The Vikings send the no. 11 pick and a 2024 third to the Falcons for the no. 8 pick.

The Falcons need a quarterback too, but I believe Atlanta will be in the veteran market, trading for Bears quarterback Justin Fields before the draft or signing a QB. Minnesota is set to lose Kirk Cousins in free agency, and with just second-year Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens under contract, the Vikings are about as desperate for QB help as any team in the league. McCarthy has been knocked for being a game manager at Michigan, but he is just 21 years old and has the tools to be a star in a Shanahan-esque passing system if he gets time to develop in year one under head coach Kevin O’Connell.

9  CHICAGO BEARS

ROME ODUNZE

WIDE RECEIVER

WASHINGTON

Rome Odunze

Remember how the Bears have never had a quarterback throw for more than 3,900 yards? Pairing Williams with Odunze (and veteran receiver D.J. Moore) will fix that. The Bears need Williams to succeed, and Chicago has the luxury of snagging a receiver here after it used a top 10 pick on right tackle Darnell Wright last year. My Ringer colleague Danny Kelly loves to call Odunze “a flat-out baller,” and pairing the elite WR with Williams would give Chicago the most talent it’s had on offense in forever.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Odunze is a hyperproductive pass catcher with the size of a no. 1 receiver in the NFL; he’s dangerous deep and wins at the catch point.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He needs to refine his route running; he lacks explosiveness after the catch and isn’t going to be a dynamic weapon there.

10  NEW YORK JETS

TALIESE FUAGA

TACKLE

OREGON STATE

General manager Joe Douglas and head coach Robert Saleh will probably be fired if they don’t make the playoffs this year. The Jets will not make the playoffs if Aaron Rodgers gets hurt again. Rodgers has a serious chance of getting hurt again unless the Jets fix their offensive line. And so Occam’s razor suggests that the Jets will take the most pro-ready offensive tackle on the board at no. 10. That is Fuaga.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Fuaga is a smooth but powerful athlete who mirrors on the edge and employs a strong punch; he moves bodies in the run game and could offer the versatility to play on the interior at the next level.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He occasionally gets beaten to the edge and thrown off-balance trying to react; some teams may view him as a guard only.

11  ATLANTA FALCONS

DALLAS TURNER

EDGE RUSHER

ALABAMA

TRADE: The Falcons send the no. 8 pick to the Vikings for the no. 11 pick and a 2024 third.

The Falcons added a third-rounder from the Vikings to move down three spots, from no. 8 to no. 11. I’m betting that Atlanta will acquire Fields or a similar veteran quarterback, which means that the Falcons and new head coach Raheem Morris can move down a few spots, collect another pick, and still get the first defender off the board. There are a lot of directions the Falcons could go, but I like Turner here. The Falcons are second to last in the NFL in sacks over the past decade (289). Their inability to get to the QB is one of the reasons Atlanta has become synonymous with blown leads. Turner can make the entire Falcons defense better.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Turner is an explosive edge rusher with three years of proven production; he’s capable of affecting all three downs.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He’s a little undersized and cedes ground at the point of attack; he may need to bulk up at the next level.

12  DENVER BRONCOS

BROCK BOWERS

TIGHT END

GEORGIA

Pass catchers are not Denver’s most pressing need, and Bowers is small for a tight end. But he is a baller, and Sean Payton has a long history of snatching up good football players. Georgia’s offense was built around the special talents that make Bowers a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. He can win one-on-one on the outside but also take jet sweep handoffs and do basically anything else required. It is unfair to compare anyone to Travis Kelce, but Bowers has the rare skill set that could make him the focal point of an offense like Kelce is in Kansas City. Payton can maximize Bowers’s talents.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Bowers is an explosive vertical playmaker and a Mack truck after the catch, capable of creating chunk gains every time he touches the ball.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He’s a bit undersized and could be viewed as a tweener; he may need to land with a team that has a creative plan to use him in the offense.

13  NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

JC LATHAM

TRADE: The Saints send the no. 14 pick and a 2024 fourth to the Patriots for the no. 13 pick.

In this mock the Patriots have already moved down from no. 3 to no. 13 after the earlier trade with the Raiders, but sitting in front of an antsy team like New Orleans is an invitation to move down one more time. The Saints are strapped on the offensive line. Longtime right tackle Ryan Ramczyk has a cartilage defect that could be serious, former first-round left tackle Trevor Penning has been a disaster through two seasons, and veteran left guard Andrus Peat is likely leaving as a free agent. The Saints have cap space constraints and need so many bodies on the offensive line that they’re a good candidate for a small trade up to get the guy they want.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Latham has a massive frame and plays with ruthless physicality; he’s got quick feet in pass protection and is a road-grading run blocker.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He can be susceptible to lunging and falling off blocks; he’s a right tackle with zero starts on the blind side.

14  NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

TROY FAUTANU

GUARD

WASHINGTON

TRADE: The Patriots send the no. 13 pick to the Saints for the no. 14 pick and a 2024 fourth.

It’s not very exciting for Patriots fans to see New England move down twice in the first round to take a tackle prospect who might be best suited at guard. New England would net offensive line help, which it needs, plus two extra first-rounders from the Raiders. This is not a fun pick, but when was the last time the Patriots did something fun in the draft?

WHY HE COULD RISE

Fautanu is tough and physical and has a versatile skill set; he has the quick feet and movement skills to play left tackle but the temperament and strength to play at guard.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He occasionally comes in too hot and falls off blocks; some teams may see him as only a guard.

15  INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

TERRION ARNOLD

DEFENSIVE BACK

ALABAMA

The Colts would call in this pick so fast that they might break break AT&T’s network. Arnold has the traits to be a star. The Colts will likely retain receiver Michael Pittman Jr. with a contract extension or a franchise tag, allowing them to look at defense here. At cornerback Indy already has Kenny Moore II, who has been solid but is 30, along with last year’s second-rounder JuJu Brents and seventh-rounder Jaylon Jones (who is not even the best NFL cornerback named Jaylon Jones). Arnold is physical and has great football instincts, which should be appealing to GM Chris Ballard.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Arnold’s a stingy defender who consistently makes plays on the ball; he has a tenacious on-field demeanor.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He’s very grabby in coverage and may need to play more disciplined downfield.

16  DETROIT LIONS

LAIATU LATU

EDGE RUSHER

UCLA

TRADE: The Lions send pick no. 29 and a future second to the Seahawks for pick no. 16.

The Lions give up a future second-rounder to move up from no. 29 to no. 16 and take Latu. They were thisclose to the Super Bowl, and based on the tape of Latu’s advanced pass rush arsenal, Detroit may easily believe it could have won it all if he had been paired with defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions have had no issues trading up for players they believe in, and Latu has the motor and win-now #grit that define Detroit. Latu’s biggest red flag is that he medically retired as a result of a neck injury at Washington but decided to continue his career at UCLA after receiving a second opinion. If there is a team that will shrug off Latu’s medical concerns, the Lions and their self-described “meathead” brain trust seem like a good bet.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Latu is a remarkably slippery pass rusher who consistently beats blocks with savvy hand-fighting techniques; he’s one of the most consistently disruptive defenders in the country.

WHY HE COULD FALL

Some teams may give him a medical red flag because of his history with a neck injury.

17  JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

BYRON MURPHY II

INTERIOR DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

TEXAS

The Jaguars have two first-rounders at defensive end in Travon Walker and Josh Allen, who set the single-season franchise record for sacks last year (17.5). But the Jags lack an interior presence along the defensive line, and Murphy can provide the thunderous interior addition this defense is missing.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Murphy is an explosive interior rusher with good power and a nonstop motor; he’s a tone-setter on the defensive line.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He’s undersized and lacks length.

18  CINCINNATI BENGALS

JER’ZHAN NEWTON

INTERIOR DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

ILLINOIS

My Ringer colleague Danny Kelly has compared Newton to former Bengal Geno Atkins, and Cincinnati may see the same thing. Cincinnati lacks an interior defensive tackle presence to bolster its defensive end duo of Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Newton is a relentless and tone-setting interior pass rusher who consistently creates havoc in opposing backfields.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He’s undersized and may need to play with a little more discipline.

19 LOS ANGELES RAMS

COOPER DEJEAN

DEFENSIVE BACK

IOWA

The Rams use their first first-rounder since 2016 on DeJean, giving them a premium defensive back after they traded away Jalen Ramsey last year. DeJean has high-end speed, and he was able to erase receivers for the Iowa defense, which was one of the best in the nation last year. L.A. could go pass rusher here, but because Byron Young and Kobie Turner broke out last season and there’s a lack of top-end secondary talent on the roster, cornerback seems like a more pressing need.

WHY HE COULD RISE

DeJean is an explosive athlete who is sticky in coverage and a tone-setter against the run; he has experience lining up at multiple positions in the secondary.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He doesn’t always find the ball on deep passes downfield; he’s coming off a broken fibula.

20  PITTSBURGH STEELERS

TYLER GUYTON

TACKLE

OKLAHOMA

Tyler Guyton

“I love reading draft evals and somebody’s talking about anything other than pedigree, talking about how poor somebody’s hand usage is,” Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said in 2023. “Well, that’s coaching.” By that logic, the Steelers will be running to grab Guyton, who is one of the most athletic and physically gifted tackles in the class, but also one of the most raw. Guyton will need to add weight and learn technique—but that’s exactly what Tomlin seems to want. Pittsburgh’s line has been pathetic the past few seasons, and Guyton would go a long way toward fixing that.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Guyton has a long frame, good power, and a natural feel for hand-fighting; his tools should get him into the starting lineup early in his career.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He’s still raw and gets caught leaning and lunging; he has little experience on the blind side.

21 MIAMI DOLPHINS

JACKSON POWERS-JOHNSON

CENTER

OREGON

This pick is a little high for the Dolphins to take a center, but Miami needs a more physical interior offensive line. Powers-Johnson would go a long way toward building that. He has a stout frame—he’s built like SpongeBob SquarePants—he finishes blocks and recovers well, and he is just 21 years old. He dominated in practices before the Senior Bowl, and Miami could use him to stabilize its ever-shifting offensive line.

22  PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

NATE WIGGINS

DEFENSIVE BACK

CLEMSON

The Eagles have the excellent habit of snagging players at premium positions in the first round. This year the draft falls perfectly for them (again), and they can grab Wiggins to bolster the secondary, which is led by 33-year-old Darius Slay and 30-year-old James Bradberry at cornerback. After the Eagles snagged Nolan Smith and Jalen Carter for their front seven in the first round last year, adding a cornerback as good as Wiggins this year would be amazing.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Wiggins is sticky in coverage and plays with ball-hawking instincts; he’s got great size and should start early in his career.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He doesn’t always get his head around at the catch point; he’s inconsistent playing the run, with missed tackles and a lack of effort getting off blocks.

23  HOUSTON TEXANS

QUINYON MITCHELL

DEFENSIVE BACK

TOLEDO

Houston has only one cornerback signed beyond the 2024 season. Former first-rounder Derek Stingley Jr. looks like a franchise cornerstone on defense, but there is not much depth behind him. Mitchell dominated at the Senior Bowl and was perhaps the best player at the entire event. While he did not face the toughest competition in college, he has the size, speed, and tenacity to succeed in the NFL, and his domination of players from higher-caliber programs while he was in Mobile should alleviate any concerns teams have about whether he could thrive in the NFL.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Mitchell is a good-sized, physical corner who plays with anticipation in coverage and has proven ball-hawking skills.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He played with a lower level of competition; it could take him a little time to adjust to a big jump in opponent talent.

24  DALLAS COWBOYS

AMARIUS MIMS

TACKLE

GEORGIA

The Cowboys already took a raw but wildly athletic, high-upside offensive lineman in Tyler Smith at no. 24 in 2022. It would not be surprising to see them do it again two years later. Dallas’s biggest needs are at linebacker and, to a lesser extent, defensive tackle, but drafting those positions would be a reach here. That gives the Cowboys the freedom to do what they do best: take an athletic offensive lineman, coach him up, and keep him for a decade. Mims could easily sit for a year and then become the heir to Tyron Smith on the left side.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Mims has a rare combination of size, length, and movement skills; he flashes elite potential in both pass protection and run blocking.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He’s very inexperienced and will need time to develop at the next level.

25  GREEN BAY PACKERS

JARED VERSE

EDGE RUSHER

FLORIDA STATE

Green Bay has a number of aging veterans across the roster who are still contributing but need to be phased out, from left tackle David Bakhtiari to linebacker De’Vondre Campbell to pass rusher Preston Smith and even running back Aaron Jones. But with the run on offensive linemen leading into this pick and few running backs or linebackers who are worth a first-round pick this year, the Packers can turn to the best available player and choose Verse, a powerful pass rusher who could eventually replace Smith.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Verse is a powerful, twitchy pass rusher with proven production and a motor that runs hot.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He’s inconsistent in the run game. He’ll be a 24-year-old rookie; is he maxed out in his development?

26 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

GRAHAM BARTON

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Tampa Bay has a ludicrous number of needs, as it has retained much of the aging corps it won a Super Bowl with three years ago. But Tampa Bay’s biggest issue is an inability to run the ball or be physical on the offensive line. Barton is not the best offensive lineman in this class, and he might be best suited at guard, but he profiles as a prospect who can step in right away for the Bucs, who lost their core interior lineman Ryan Jensen and Ali Marpet in the past few years.

27  ARIZONA CARDINALS

KOOL-AID MCKINSTRY

DEFENSIVE BACK

ALABAMA

The Cardinals already stood pat and got Marvin Harrison Jr. to pair with Kyler Murray for the fourth pick. Now they can double dip and get a no. 1 cornerback to pair with their new no. 1 wide receiver. Arizona’s cornerback room was perhaps the worst in the NFL last season, and also a big reason they earned the 29th-worst coverage grade in the NFL from Pro Football Focus in 2023. McKinstry and Harrison together would be a franchise-changing haul for Arizona.

WHY HE COULD RISE

McKinstry combines good size with the versatility to play both press- and off-coverage looks; he’s a battle-tested two-year starter.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He struggles to turn his head and find the ball at times and produced just two picks in three seasons for Alabama.

28  BUFFALO BILLS

BRIAN THOMAS JR.

WIDE RECEIVER

LSU

The Bills drafted tight end Dalton Kincaid last year and will likely lose Gabe Davis in free agency, making Thomas an excellent addition to pair alongside Stefon Diggs in Buffalo. Thomas is 6-foot-4 and should provide the type of deep-threat abilities Davis brought, but with better yards-after the-catch explosiveness.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Thomas is an explosive playmaker with the speed to take the lid off the defense; he scores a lot of touchdowns.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He’s unrefined as a route runner and operated mainly as a vertical threat; he posted just one season of top-end production.

29  SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

CHOP ROBINSON

EDGE RUSHER

PENN STATE

TRADE: The Seahawks send the no. 16 pick to the Lions for the no. 29 pick and a future second.

Under general manager John Schneider, the Seahawks love to trade back in the first round, and new head coach Mike MacDonald comes from Baltimore—which might be the only team that trades back more than Seattle. There’s no reason to expect Seattle to sit still here. Their efforts have been rewarded with a guy named Chop—what an incredible football name—who has the kind of athleticism, size, and motor that the Seahawks have long sought, but would also work well in new head coach Mike Macdonald’s defense.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Robinson has ludicrous burst and bend off the edge; he brings elite potential with some development.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He never posted high-end numbers at Penn State and could need a few years to develop his pass-rush plan.

30  BALTIMORE RAVENS

KAMARI LASSITER

DEFENSIVE BACK

GEORGIA

The Ravens had the best defense in football last year, but have 13 pending free agents on that side of the ball, lost defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, defensive line coach Anthony Weaver, and defensive backs coach Dennard Wilson. Even if the Ravens franchise tag defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, veteran edge rushers Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy could both be gone. But the Ravens aren’t the kind of team to draft for need, and adding strength on strength to the secondary is the kind of move Baltimore has done before. Lassiter does not have elite size, but he does have speed and instincts, which is right up the Ravens’ alley.

WHY HE COULD RISE

Lassiter is a savvy defender with a natural feel for positioning himself to make plays in coverage; he’s aggressive and versatile, with the skill set to play in any scheme.

WHY HE COULD FALL

He’s undersized and lacks top-tier ball production.

31  SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

KINGSLEY SUAMATAIA

TACKLE

BYU

Kingsley Suamataia

HEIGHT 6’6″

WEIGHT 325

YEAR

AGE 21.2

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The 49ers offensive line, outside of Trent Williams, was a liability all season—especially in the Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs. Improving the line  must be the 49ers’ top priority, assuming they are able to keep wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (if the 49ers decide to trade Aiyuk, a receiver here makes a lot of sense, but my gut says the 49ers hold on to Aiyuk for one more season). Suamataia is huge and a ridiculous athlete. His cousin is Detroit’s first-team All-Pro right tackle Penei Sewell. But Suamataia is also raw as a prospect. The 49ers being able to develop him into another one of their athletic mauling tackles would be massive for this team, especially with Williams turning 36 in July.

32  KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

JA’LYNN POLK

WIDE RECEIVER

WASHINGTON

The Chiefs receivers led the NFL in drops this year. This team won the Super Bowl despite a single player—tight end Travis Kelce—being able to reliably catch the football. Polk would provide another underneath option to give this offense some teeth, along with Kelce and last year’s second-rounder Rashee Rice. It’s not hard to envision Polk and Patrick Mahomes developing a chemistry over the course of a decade.