The byed teams, the Ravens and 49ers, are each about 10-point favorites against teams with Young Gun QBs, the Texans and Packers, who have been throwing the heck out of the ball.

In the other NFC Divisional, two quarterbacks who each were first overall picks, QB JARED GOFF of the Lions (2016 by the Rams) and QB BAKER MAYFIELD (2018 by the Browns) will face off.  Both knew some success, then were shipped out of town and now continue their Redemption Runs in giddy Detroit.  The Lions start as 6-point favorites.

While the Lions have a second home game in as many weeks, Kansas City’s PATRICK MAHOMES takes his act to a hostile environment in the postseason for the first time in his career.  It will be the 3^rd postseason meeting between Mahomes and JOSH ALLEN of the Bills.  The Chiefs won the first two in Kansas City, 38-24 in the 2020 AFC Championship Game, and 42-36 in a 2021-22 Divisional.  Mahomes threw a walk-off TD pass in OT to Travis Kelce with Allen never getting the ball (leading to a rule change for the postseason).  This time, the home Bills are the 2.5-point pick by the oddsmakers early in the week.

In case you were wondering, 32-9 was not Scoregami.  There had been one previous 32-9 game, regular season or postseason – 48+ years ago when the Steelers beat the Oilers, 32-9, on 11-24-75.

MINNESOTA

Do the Vikings need a few tweaks with QB KIRK COUSINS or should they do an overhaul?  Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com:

— The only reason to launch a full roster rebuild, Minnesota Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah was saying last week, is if you don’t think you’re close to competing for a Super Bowl title.

His comment sparked an important follow-up: Do you think the Vikings are close?

“At different times this year, you would say that ‘Yeah, we’ve shown it,'” Adofo-Mensah said. “And, last year in fact. But I think you want to get to that place in your program that it is consistent year in and year out and you can overcome adversity. We are not there to that standard yet, no. But we have made the playoffs. We have been in playoff contention for a lot of this year through a lot of things, so I think we’re pointed in the right direction. It is going to take a big offseason for me to answer that question a little bit more and shorter next time.”

And with that, Adofo-Mensah set up the most important leverage point of his tenure with the team, one for which he’ll weigh how many resources to apply to the short term amid a list of long-term needs that have gone largely unfulfilled since he was hired in January 2022.

He and coach Kevin O’Connell have compiled a 20-14 record over the ensuing two seasons, with one playoff appearance. But two of their three best players, quarterback Kirk Cousins and pass-rusher Danielle Hunter, are pending free agents with a clear path to market after the Vikings negotiated away their right to use the franchise tag on either. The third, receiver Justin Jefferson, did not accept an offer to extend his contract last summer and would play in 2024 under his fifth-year option if no agreement can be reached.

Adofo-Mensah has drafted one impact player — receiver Jordan Addison — among 16 picks over two years, and his 2024 position at No. 11 probably isn’t high enough to select a top-tier successor to Cousins.

When you layer those circumstances on a unique set of expectations from the Wilf family ownership group, which in the words of president/owner Mark Wilf means the Vikings must “consistently contend” rather than go into a “full rebuild,” you start to get a sense for why Adofo-Mensah knows he needs a “big offseason.” And nowhere is his difficult path forward manifested more intensely than at quarterback.

Cousins will turn 36 this summer and is coming off the first major injury of his pro career, a torn right Achilles that ended his season after eight games. He has said repeatedly that he wants to finish his career in Minnesota, and both Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell have said they hope to reach an agreement with him as well. But the breadcrumbs Cousins has left about the terms of that presumed return suggest he will seek multiple guaranteed years in order to re-sign before his deal voids on March 13.

Last week, in fact, Cousins relayed advice he received long ago about evaluating contract offers: “It’s not about the dollars, but it is about what the dollars represent.” Cousins declined to further explain but left the clear impression that he wants the Vikings’ offer to represent a similar desire for him to finish his career in Minnesota.

Adofo-Mensah said last week one of his primary goals after taking the Vikings job was to regain “financial flexibility,” and that approach led him to allow Cousins to enter 2023 in the final non-voidable year of his contract. If he wasn’t willing to guarantee Cousins multiple seasons in 2023, is there any reason to believe he has changed his mind about flexibility one year — and a significant injury — later?

So goes the argument for believing the Vikings will ultimately allow Cousins to enter the market, where he would be the top quarterback available. But if that happens, would the Vikings be able to “consistently contend” in 2024 with either a rookie starter or a replacement-level veteran?

Adofo-Mensah said last week the Wilfs have never explicitly told him they would veto a plan to open a season with a rookie starter. “We just talk about, ‘What are the time horizons, what are the goals and where [do] we think best to do that,'” he said.

Those “time horizons” are in essence a projection of when decisions will make their impact. Common sense suggests the third year of a general manager/coach tenure is not the time to sacrifice the short term for a long-term result. That’s the primary argument for giving Cousins what he wants to return. While there are always examples of rookie quarterbacks taking their teams to the playoffs — C.J. Stroud did it for the Houston Texans this season — they are generally more the exception than the rule.

That leads to a third option: re-signing Cousins and drafting a high-end quarterback, a scenario that former NFL general manager Mike Tannenbaum, now an ESPN analyst, endorsed this fall. While few would argue the wisdom of pushing so many resources to the quarterback position, that decision would not only minimize the salary-cap benefit of having a starting quarterback on a rookie contract, but it would further limit the Vikings’ opportunities to make up for the apparent draft misses they produced in 2022 and 2023, especially on defense.

The Vikings drafted five defensive players among the top 165 picks in 2022, and one, fourth-round cornerback Akayleb Evans, has seen notable playing time outside of special teams. First-round safety Lewis Cine was inactive for 11 games, and second-round cornerback Andrew Booth Jr. spent the season buried on the depth chart.

Adofo-Mensah said the “path is not always linear” for player development and added that both players “have shown us nothing but reason to believe they are going to keep on their upward path.” No matter how you look at it, however, the Vikings have added only two defensive rookies in the past two seasons — cornerback Mekhi Blackmon and linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. — whom they trusted enough to use with any frequency. With the potential of losing Hunter and with fellow outside linebacker D.J. Wonnum also a pending free agent, the Vikings’ “big offseason” will be as much about finding defensive reinforcements as deciding the path at quarterback.

“It’s an important offseason,” Adofo-Mensah said, changing the adjective but reiterating the message. “I can’t really run from that in any kind of way.”

DALLAS

Is this something?  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Every Tuesday, right around now, word begins to trickle out regarding some of the words uttered by Cowboys owner Jerry Jones during one of his two weekly appearances on 105.3 The Fan in Dallas.

This week, that won’t happen.

Shan Shariff of 105.3 The Fan said Monday that neither Jerry nor Stephen Jones will be appearing on the team’s flagship station this week.

“Yes, they have come on in the past to recap the season, but their radio agreements for the year actually expire when the [Cowboys’] season ends,” Shariff said.

It’s no surprise, but it underscores the uncertainty currently engulfing the team. If they were keeping coach Mike McCarthy, they’d say so. Loudly. For now, they’re at least thinking about moving on. They’re surely thinking about who they’d move on to.

And, despite the formal requirements for coaching searches, they’re quite possibly working behind the scenes to see if they can get the proverbial two in the bush before releasing the bird in the hand.

Regardless, something has to change after Sunday’s debacle. We’ll find out not through a radio interview. Regardless, we’ll find out

Jane Slater of NFL Network filed this thread on Twitter/X after milling around in the Cowboys’ Monday locker room:

@SlaterNFL

To the fans, who think this team has quit on Mike McCarthy my conversations with players don’t tell me that AT all. Really interesting hearing them defend him, his culture & how he’s lead them on the field and off of it. Their ownership of failing Mike is what stands out the most

3:48 PM · Jan 15, 2024

·

@SlaterNFL

·-Nuggets like wanting players on Saturday practices to bring their families so he can meet them and interact

-Meeting breaks to text a loved one and say thank you for their support

-Preservation of their bodies with rest days

-“his love of players like none I’ve had before”

@SlaterNFL

another quote “In order to be a great leader you have to be a great man yourself. Mike puts it all out there for everyone to be successful”

I was told they know it’s a business and Jerry Jones wants success but they still believe they are close

@SlaterNFL

Fans can roll their eyes but I do think players thoughts matter as Jerry Jones weighs decision.

Another player was frustrated with a stubbornness to stick to schemes on both sides of the ball.

Motion offenses killing defenses and concern that Dak panics when 1st read not there

PHILADELPHIA

The re-building of the Eagles will not include C JASON KELCE.  Adam Schefter of ESPN.com:

Philadelphia Eagles star center Jason Kelce told his teammates in Monday night’s postgame locker room that he is retiring, league sources told ESPN.

Kelce, 36, was visibly emotional at the end of the Eagles’ 32-9 wild-card playoff loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The six-time All-Pro and future Hall of Famer has considered retiring in recent seasons, but this time it will happen, according to sources.

Kelce declined to talk with reporters in the locker room after the game, saying: “No guys, not today.”

“I love him,” Eagles coach Nick Sirianni said. “He’s special and I love him. He’s one of the most special guys I’ve been around. He’s always got a place here.”

Kelce played this season on a one-year contract and was set to become a free agent in March.

A sixth-round draft selection in 2011, Kelce has played his entire 13-year career with the Eagles and has been one of the key leaders for a team that has made six postseason appearances and two Super Bowl trips over the past seven seasons.

“He’s a legend in the city — really in the league,” Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts said. “I don’t want to do a disservice to him and the things he’s been able to do and overcome. His journey to where he is now didn’t come easy. It’s been a long, long time coming for him, and every year since I’ve been here, it’s been, ‘Are you going to come back?’

“But he knows how much I love and appreciate him. He knows how much I’ve learned from him. He’ll forever have a special place in my heart.”

Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson told reporters that Kelce has “hinted” to teammates that this would be his final season.

“I love him. He’s one of the best to ever play the game,” Johnson said. “The things he can do on the football field athletically — I don’t think we’ll see another one like him for a long time.”

Kelce is the fifth center in NFL history with at least six All-Pro selections. The other four — Jim Otto, Bulldog Turner, Dermontti Dawson, Jim Ringo — are all in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Was Kelce’s retirement in part brought about by the Eagles push sneak?  Florio:

Eagles center Jason Kelce reportedly is retiring. He’ll undoubtedly miss much about football.

There’s one thing he won’t miss.

Kelce doesn’t love the tush push. He has said that he ends up at the bottom of a mass of humanity. Via Laura Okmin of Fox Sports, Kelce shared during the season the words he would shout every time the play was being executed.

“Fuck my life!”

Via Okmin, quarterback Jalen Hurts confirmed that Kelce would indeed let that specific expletive fly.

It’s no surprise. It’s a tough, gritty play. Kelce’s reward for pushing as hard as he can was a squishing by various other large bodies.

That apparently won’t be happening again for Kelce. Which means that the Eagles will need to find someone else to anchor the play — and to utter a previously unknown catch phrase that, frankly, plenty of Eagles fans might be muttering today for very different reasons.

ATLANTA

The Falcons are the first team known to have interviewed Bill Belichick.  Mike Florio:

It would be fitting if it lasted 28 minutes and three seconds. Either way, Bill Belichick has interviewed with the Falcons for the team’s head-coaching vacancy.

The Falcons announced on Monday night that the interview has been completed.

Belichick and the Patriots parted ways four days ago. Belichick had one year left on his contract, but Patriots owner Robert Kraft opted not to attempt to receive compensation from a new team.

The move confirms what was already believed — Belichick intends to keep coaching. As to the Falcons, it’s unknown whether Belichick would be able to coexist with CEO Rich McKay.

It’s also unknown whether other teams will pursue Belichick, like the Cowboys.

Belichick and the Patriots beat the Falcons in Super Bowl LI, erasing a 28-3 second-half deficit to win the game in overtime.

TAMPA BAY

Charean Williams on the Buccaneers advancing to the Divisional Playoffs for the third time in four years.

Baker Mayfield had just the fourth 300-yard passing game in Tampa Bay playoff history. Tom Brady has the other three, one in each of the past three postseasons.

Mayfield’s 337 passing yards and three passing touchdowns led the Bucs to a 32-9 win over the Eagles.

Tampa Bay (10-8) advances to the divisional round, where it will play the Lions in Detroit on Sunday. The Eagles (11-7) end a disappointing season, losing six of their final seven games and putting Nick Sirianni’s future with the team in question.

Mayfield, who was questionable with injuries to his ribs and an ankle, went 22-of-36. He threw touchdown passes of 44 yards to David Moore, 56 yards to Trey Palmer and 23 yards to Chris Godwin.

The Bucs, who lost to the Cowboys at home in a wild-card game last year in Brady’s final game, outgained the Eagles 426 to 276. They never trailed, taking a 13-0 lead before the Eagles closed to within 16-9 at halftime.

The Eagles were shutout in the second half, gaining only 94 yards.

Rachaad White rushed for 72 yards on 18 carries and caught one pass for 3 yards. Nine players caught at least one pass, with Cade Otton hauling in eight for 89. Mike Evans dropped two passes and caught three for 48.

The Bucs pressured Jalen Hurts all night, getting three sacks and forcing a safety on an intentional grounding call in the end zone. Hurts went 25-of-35 for 250 yards and a touchdown.

The Eagles sorely missed their No. 1 receiver, A.J. Brown, who was inactive with a knee injury. DeVonta Smith caught eight passes for 148 yards, but Hurts had no other wideout he trusted, and Julio Jones left with a concussion in the first half.

Were the Eagles just horrific or are the Buccaneers actually a contender?  Mike Jones of The Athletic seems to think the latter:

From the very first day that Todd Bowles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took the field for training camp, few outside the organization gave them much of a chance this season.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield was on his fourth team in 19 months, trying to fill the recently retired Tom Brady’s massive shoes. The roster lacked household names from the Bucs’ 2020 Super Bowl season and instead featured unproven youngsters in some of those key spots. Oddsmakers predicted Bowles could be among the first NFL head coaches fired this season. The Bucs just never had that championship feel, at least not to outsiders.

So, it came as no surprise early last week when, despite having defied expectations by winning the NFC South, Tampa Bay was pegged by Las Vegas as a home underdog for its NFC wild-card matchup with a sagging Philadelphia Eagles team.

The Buccaneers simply shrugged off the lack of respect, then attacked the Eagles with a vengeance Monday night at Raymond James Stadium.

Riding an aggressive defensive performance and paced by a gutsy performance from Mayfield, the Buccaneers thumped Philadelphia 32-9 to advance to the divisional round of the playoffs. Tampa Bay will travel to Detroit for a Sunday afternoon game against the Lions, who are riding high after beating the L.A. Rams for their first playoff victory in 32 years.

“The underdog role doesn’t bother us,” linebacker Shaquil Barrett said. “We know our capabilities in the locker room, no matter what is projected or what people would think is going to happen in the game. We always come in thinking we’ve got a great chance of winning the game. So, people saw us as the underdog tonight, and we know they’ll see us as the underdog going into Detroit, but we know we’ve got to keep doing the same stuff.”

It’s often said that teams take on the personality of their strongest leaders, and the Buccaneers are no different. Players will readily admit they are a blend of Bowles and Mayfield.

Bowles, the second-year head coach, is stoic and unflinching but also intensely competitive. The former defensive back is calculated yet highly aggressive. Mayfield, meanwhile, is so unapologetically himself. He’s brash at times, always fiery as a competitor and plays with the toughness of a middle linebacker.

Drawing inspiration from their coach and quarterback, the Buccaneers steeled themselves all season against the outside noise, particularly doing a four-game losing streak that stretched from October to November, and morphed into a 1-6 skid.

“We just stayed the course,” Barrett said. “We always knew we were a better team than we were on the losing streak that we had. … Now, everything is starting to click and that’s why we stay with the program and trust the process and just keep doing what you’re supposed to do. We knew it was going to start working.”

The confidence grew during a four-game win streak and 5-1 run by the Bucs to close out the regular season while clinching the division. And the resolve remained just as strong this week as the Buccaneers prepared to avenge a 25-11 loss to the Eagles in Week 3.

The Buccaneers wanted to turn the tables after giving up 472 total yards, including 201 on the ground, to the Eagles in that initial meeting. Mission accomplished. Monday night, it was the Buccaneers who amassed 426 total yards and 23 first downs, converting 6 of 14 third-down attempts. They held the Eagles to 276 yards (only 42 yards rushing) and 0-for-9 on third down.

Bowles and his defense delivered a signature performance while eliminating the threat of the Eagles’ rushing attack. They forced quarterback Jalen Hurts to beat them with a short-staffed wide receiving unit while also nursing a painful and slowly healing dislocated middle finger on his throwing hand.

Turning the Eagles one-dimensional enabled Bowles to dial up one blitz-heavy package after another. Hurts (sacked three times, including a safety) and his teammates and coaches never figured out how to adjust.

Linebacker Devin White said the Bucs defense entered the game “with a dominant mindset. We wanted to jump on them early and just beat them. I think it was the preparation. That played a big part and coming in here with a winning attitude.”

Offensive players drew fuel from those defensive heroics, as well as inspiration from Mayfield. The quarterback was so battered and bruised from rib and ankle injuries, he brought in his personal physiotherapist twice during the week in hopes that the extra treatment would give him a shot at playing.

It worked. Mayfield passed for 337 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions while also scrambling for 16 yards on two carries. Mayfield became only the second Buccaneers quarterback — Brady is the other — to pass for 300 yards or more in a playoff contest.

“He gutted it out,” Bowles said. “I mean, if you looked at him during the week, he was limping around, he wouldn’t practice and he was getting a little better each day. … He never flinched (Monday). He made play after play after play.”

Tight end Cade Otton, who had a team-high eight catches for 89 yards, said the Bucs as a team take on Mayfield’s character.

“It’s just watching his actions. The way he plays, the way he practices, the way he leads, it’s very genuine and he is always just competing,” Otton said “He’s wanting to win, but he also wants camaraderie with us. It’s just a great person to have as the leader of our team.”

“He’s a dog,” left tackle Tristan Wirfs said. “He’s a super tough guy and incredible competitor. He’s been doing everything he can to be out there with us. It’s just awesome to see.”

The Buccaneers listed Mayfield as questionable entering the game, but the quarterback said there was never a chance in his own mind that he wouldn’t play Monday night.

“We worked extremely hard to get a chance to be in the playoffs and we just wanted an opportunity and our guys came out and played really, really well,” said Mayfield, whose three touchdown passes went for 44, 56 and 23 yards. “Special teams, defense — once again … we’re happy, but still got more to go.”

The redemption tour continues Sunday in Detroit, where the Bucs will attempt to avenge a 20-6 Week 6 loss to the Lions. Detroit is an early 6 1/2-point favorite, but no one in Tampa cares about that. Why would they, given the odds they’ve defied thus far?

PITTSBURGH

Just when we thought it was sorted out that Mike Tomlin would be back with the Steelers with a contract extension, the postgame happened Monday in Buffalo.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

With plenty of noise regarding coach Mike Tomlin’s future in Pittsburgh — and in the aftermath of a Saturday report that Tomlin will discuss his future with his family after the season ends — it was inevitable he’d be asked about it after Monday’s playoff game at Buffalo.

He almost wasn’t. As often is the case with a slew of reporters and a potentially sensitive subject, no one had asked about it during the press conference until the last call for questions was made. A reporter prefaced a question by saying, “Mike, you have a year left on your contract. . . .”

Before the next word came out, Tomlin turned to his left and walked away.

As we reported during halftime of Saturday’s Browns-Texans game on NBC, Tomlin always assesses his situation after every season ends. This year, however, is unique because he always has gotten an extension with at least two years left on his deal.

Now, he’s one season away from free agency. Unrestricted. Unfettered. No franchise tag. No salary cap.

Will he sign a new contract in Pittsburgh? (The Steelers intend to try.) Will he resign and perhaps join a new team that trades for his rights in the current cycle? Will he resign and return to a new team, with compensation, in 2025? Or will he just finish his contract and go wherever he wants?

We don’t know. All we do know is that, if the topic comes up, he’ll walk out of the room.

MIAMI

Mike Sando of The Athletic on what to do with QB TUA TAGOVIALOA:

1. The Dolphins have decisions to make regarding their future at quarterback. They have options.

The problem for Miami is that the AFC is packed with cold-weather teams possessing superior quarterbacks. Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes. Cincinnati with Joe Burrow. Buffalo with Josh Allen. Baltimore with Lamar Jackson.

The Jets with Aaron Rodgers and Cleveland with Deshaun Watson have the potential to be in the mix, while one of the AFC’s indoor teams, Houston, has an emerging star QB in rookie C.J. Stroud. New England picks third in the draft and could plausibly add a quarterback more talented than Tagovailoa. Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence also live in the AFC.

In other words, good luck in the playoffs with Tua, especially on the road.

Bitter cold, bitter end: Dolphins leave wild-card loss with familiar, lingering questions

Let’s consider three options, ordered from most to least palatable:

• Trade Tua, sign Cousins: The equation here is that Cousins and a draft pick (or picks) would be better than continuing with Tagovailoa. The Dolphins do not have third- or fourth-round picks in the upcoming draft, so they could use the capital. Cousins, a free agent in March, would have to prioritize Miami as his preferred landing spot, which seemingly would be easy for him, given what the Dolphins offer in terms of McDaniel’s personality, the scheme and weaponry.

“Your upside with Tua certainly seems limited,” an exec said, “so let’s say you can trade him. I would be exploring, ‘OK, Tua, we can win games with, probably not winning a championship with. Kirk Cousins, we can win games with, probably not winning a championship with. But our resources are better spent on Cousins plus draft picks than they are on just Tua.”

Who would trade for Tagovailoa? NFC teams with indoor stadiums might. Could the Dolphins get a first-round pick? A second- and a third-rounder?

“If you could get a 2 and a 3 for Tua and sign Kirk, I’d want to make sure I felt comfortable about having him for three years from a health standpoint,” a different exec said. “I do think Tua works much better in a domed stadium where you know half your games are played in pristine conditions.”

Put Tagovailoa on the Falcons and Atlanta could have the best quarterback in the division. The Vikings would need a quarterback if Cousins departed. Could the Rams be interested if Matthew Stafford retired? Trading Tagovailoa for Stafford would be even better if the right set of circumstances made it feasible.

McDaniel’s coaching mentor, Kyle Shanahan, has coveted Cousins. McDaniel might feel similarly. The three were together with Washington for Cousins’ first two seasons. Could Cousins be the difference for the Dolphins between securing home-field advantage or not?

“If you like Cousins and you can sign him to a three- or four-year deal and you can trade Tua for a couple of draft picks, that to me is a different type of path forward,” the first exec said. “I don’t know if it is the best one. You really have to be in that building to know, but if you are looking for alternatives, there is a pretty good one.”

• Let Tua play out the fifth-year option: This feels like the most logical option in the abstract. Teams with doubts about their quarterbacks should not sign them to long-term deals when they can go year-to-year. Tagovailoa is scheduled to earn $23.2 million in 2024, which is at the bottom of the annual averages for veteran starters, below Jimmy Garoppolo.

“Then you are walking into playing the franchise-tag game, which may be OK in the instance of Tua,” an exec said. “In this case, you aren’t worried about someone putting up two ones and taking Tua away. It is more about the message it sends to your locker room, your organization, your community about what it is that you reward. If Tua is beloved there, they may as well do a deal and try to minimize their risk and keep searching for the next quarterback.”

The past two seasons have shown that Tagovailoa is a good quarterback whose limitations show up resoundingly under the toughest circumstances.

“He is at the level of quarterback that is hard to commit to,” another exec said. “But it becomes really tricky when you start betting against your quarterback like that.”

This is where McDaniel’s authenticity, a trademark of his approach, would be tested.

“Whatever your reasoning is, you just have to share that with Tua and tell him this is how we see it,” the exec said.

Another exec was more blunt.

“You gotta love who you are with and then move on,” this exec said. “He is your No. 1 quarterback until he is not.”

• Extend Tagovailoa’s contract: The Dolphins could ask for structural concessions mitigating the risk with a player who carries injury and performance sustainability concerns. Tagovailoa made it through a full season finally, but his late-season production has suffered. He has a 2-4 starting record against playoff teams under McDaniel.

Would Tagovailoa reward the faith McDaniel has shown in him, recognizing he’s best off in Miami, by taking a deal that gives him financial security while maintaining more team flexibility?

“Not going to be possible,” another exec predicted. “It takes a really mature player who controls the agent to do that, and that is rare.”

Under this scenario, the Dolphins would get healthy on defense, then make another run at the top seed in the AFC. Tagovailoa would be the starting quarterback for the next two seasons, maybe three.

“There is no way I would give him an extension,” this exec added. “You do have to be concerned that your division is going to be a dogfight with Buffalo every year, and you may need to win some of those games in bad conditions late in the season, and you may be playing wild-card games on the road as well.”

NEW ENGLAND

The Belichick sons can stay with the Patriots if they wish.  Mike Reiss of ESPN.com:

New England Patriots assistant coaches Steve Belichick and Brian Belichick, the sons of former head coach Bill Belichick, have been given the opportunity to remain with the team, sources confirmed to ESPN.

SI.com first reported the news about the Belichicks, whose future landing spots could also be tied to whether their father lands another head-coaching job in 2024.

Steve Belichick spent the past 12 seasons on the Patriots’ staff, elevating from an entry-level coaching assistant to linebackers coach and defensive playcaller. Brian Belichick began his career with the franchise in 2016 as a scouting assistant before working his way up from entry-level coaching assistant (2017-19) to safeties coach (2020-23).

New Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo has developed a close relationship with Steve Belichick, as players often noted how much time they spend together. The two first formed a bond when Mayo was playing for the team and sidelined on injured reserve.

“I spent a lot of time with Steve in the dungeon, and we would go in there and break down film and talk ball,” Mayo said in mid-December. “Hearing it from him, from a coach’s perspective — one of the greatest head coaches’ sons; and then I brought the on-the-field perspective.

“Even back then, 2013, 2014, we just had a connection. We kind of spoke the same language. With that being said, when we game-planned [as coaches] and talked to the players and things like that, it was very natural. I love coaching with Steve.”

Mayo is scheduled to be formally introduced as the 15th head coach in Patriots history Wednesday at noon ET, alongside owner Robert Kraft and team president Jonathan Kraft.

– – –

Seth Wickersham and company (Wright Thompson, Don Van Natta Jr.) does their thing on the final days of The Patriot Way.

ON FEB. 7, 2021, Tom Brady stood with his children beneath a shower of victory confetti. He had just won his seventh Super Bowl. Three more than Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw, one more than his former New England Patriots bosses Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft. In NFL lore, he now stood alone. Up in a private suite, his family looked down with many emotions. Nobody who’d ever played the game had won more, been more of a winner, and it felt to him and the people who loved him that he hadn’t merely beaten the Kansas City Chiefs but also had beaten his old team, after it had doubted him and opened the door for him to leave. Brady held his kids close. Watching the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ celebration unfold below, his parents opened a bottle of champagne. Nobody said a word about New England. It was simply understood. His mom and his dad and his sisters raised a glass, and if you listened carefully in that moment, the delicate sound of stemware was a bell tolling for the Patriots dynasty.

Brady and Belichick and Kraft were no longer fighting for credit. Brady had claimed that credit undeniably on the most public stage in sports. His seventh title meant Bill and Bob were now fighting not to be blamed. Both men sent Brady congratulatory texts, but they had lost control of the narrative of their own careers — and they both knew that the team celebrating a seventh title should have been their team, and that wound began to fester.

“Bill had told me he couldn’t play anymore,” Kraft said privately afterward, “and then he goes out and wins the f—ing Super Bowl.”

BELICHICK AND KRAFT ENDED their partnership four days after losing at home in the snow to the New York Jets. “We’re moving on,” Belichick said, and Kraft said they had “mutually agreed” to part ways. A somber mood had permeated throughout the football offices at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, since the loss to the Jets, with most assistant coaches and staffers kept in the dark on the future of the franchise even as they wrapped up a 4-13 season with exit interviews and meetings. Belichick had sent clear signals internally for weeks that he thought he was coaching his final games for the Patriots. He also made it clear that he was ready to move on, telling confidants that Robert Kraft and his son, team president Jonathan Kraft, had eroded the culture he had built over two decades.

Belichick believed the erosion had been going on for a while, at least since Brady’s last season in New England. Belichick and Kraft met multiple times after this season ended, which is custom, but this year’s series of meetings was different. Both men had lists of things that needed to change. And both men knew it was unlikely they’d find a way forward. Three days after losing to the Jets, Belichick had started to move items out of his office.

After nine Super Bowl appearances and six championships, Kraft wanted something new. The team hadn’t won a playoff game since winning Super Bowl LIII over the Los Angeles Rams almost five years ago. In fact, without Brady starting at quarterback, Kraft and Belichick share a win-loss record of 47-57, a sample that makes both of them below average, which for two proud men accustomed to accolades might be a fate worse than ending all they had built together in New England.

– – –

Belichick ran operations mostly with impunity for the next decade. The team won three Super Bowls. From 2006 to 2013, the Patriots plateaued at the highest level — losing Super Bowls in the final minute to the Giants — and relationships started to fray. Belichick internally discussed trading Brady and talked openly to associates about wanting to win a Super Bowl without him. Kraft, trying to manage the two of them — trying to do what Jerry Jones couldn’t and keep a dynasty together — struck a quiet deal with Brady in 2010 that if Belichick ever decided to move on from him that he would give the quarterback a say in his next destination.

During another contract impasse in 2013, Robert Kraft flew with Brady from Boston to L.A. A deal was reached, but sources said Jonathan created an urgency for his dad to be more involved. A year later, in 2014, Belichick provided Kraft a study detailing how even the greatest quarterbacks drop off in their mid-30s. Belichick drafted Jimmy Garoppolo in the second round, setting him up to succeed Brady.

Brady found another gear, like his boyhood hero Joe Montana did after the arrival of Steve Young. Brady turned to friend and trainer Alex Guerrero and an obsessive anti-aging regimen to prove Belichick’s study wrong. With the conflict between his two most important employees now out in the open, Kraft took on the job of making Brady happy, offering connection and compliments and joy in an otherwise dour Belichick atmosphere. New England won two more Super Bowls, against the Seattle Seahawks and Atlanta Falcons, both with Brady-authored comebacks and situational defensive brilliance from Belichick. A tricky dynamic ensued, with Kraft acting as a referee between the two alphas. Brady wanted to ease up his offseason workouts, which didn’t bother Belichick and maybe even pleased him. Brady watched his old reps going to Garoppolo and jumped back in. Brady complained to Kraft about the offseason practice schedules, which led Kraft to start asking around the building. Word got back to Belichick, who wondered why Kraft was asking these questions.

All of those issues — Garoppolo, Brady’s age and contract, Deflategate, Belichick’s mostly miserable program and the TB12 method — came to a head in 2017. Belichick curtailed Guerrero’s access. At one point, Brady and Guerrero worked out of a maintenance shed at Gillette Stadium that stored John Deere tractors. Belichick spoke to confidants about leaving. Brady has said publicly that he didn’t want to return to the Patriots at that time unless something changed. After releasing a statement in January 2018 denying that there was tension between his two most important employees, Kraft wanted fans to know how he solved it, by hearing Brady out, by restoring some of Guerrero’s access. They won another Super Bowl in 2019. Their sixth. And last.

Seven months later, Brady again asked for a contract to ensure he would be a Patriot until his stated goal of age 45. The negotiations were tense, typical for the latter half of Brady’s career. Reporters asked him if he believed he had earned a new deal. His answer was revealing, its own kind of message, because he didn’t mention the coach who prided himself on total control.

“Talk to Mr. Kraft,” Brady said.

IN OCTOBER 2021, BRADY returned to New England as a member of the defending champion Buccaneers. Kraft and Belichick both had decided to let Brady go. No matter how much Kraft tried to distance himself from that decision, he approved it.

“He backed Bill,” Brady told a friend at the time.

When Brady entered Gillette Stadium, he got a window into life in New England without him there. Kraft and Belichick coordinated to meet him shortly after he arrived. The field seemed like the best place, because one of Brady’s rituals was to walk it before games. But when Brady saw a thicket of cameras around, more than for any Patriots game in memory, including cameras for an all-access documentary coming out in February — which in the words of a Kraft confidant “is an infomercial” and “pitch for Robert to get into the Hall of Fame” — he stopped. He didn’t want to be used in that way. Instead they met in the hallways inside the stadium. A camera crew found them, and Brady asked for some space. He didn’t want those conversations to be weaponized in any way.

After the Buccaneers’ narrow win, Belichick and Brady met alone near the visitors locker room. When Brady left for Tampa, he seemed to have a visceral reaction whenever someone raised Belichick’s name “He doesn’t know what he’s losing,” Brady privately said after he left. But in Foxborough the two men chatted for 20 minutes, and Brady later told friends that Belichick was conciliatory. Belichick didn’t blame Brady for leaving: He admitted in the meeting that the Buccaneers were better equipped to win than New England in 2020, a season that required a reset of sorts after Belichick publicly said that the team had “sold out.”

It was as close to a concession for how things ended as Belichick was capable of giving. Brady’s grudge against Belichick eased, a confidence rooted in assurance that, coming off his recent Super Bowl triumph, he could afford to be magnanimous.

NEW ENGLAND’S RECORD IN the first three years after Brady left — 7-9 in 2020, 10-7 in 2021, 8-9 in 2022 — and most of all, the way the team was trending downward, caused the Krafts to assert themselves more in football operations. Three moves during the 2023 offseason show its effects.

One was promoting linebackers coach Jerod Mayo to a vague but favored status last January. The Carolina Panthers wanted to interview Mayo for their head-coach opening in early 2023. Kraft swooped in, as he did with Josh McDaniels in 2018 when he was about to leave for the Indianapolis Colts. The team issued a news release, signed by Belichick, saying that the Patriots were working on an extension for Mayo that would keep him with the team “long term.” That type of public declaration of a staff transaction was unprecedented in the Belichick era — he has been title agnostic with coaches since his days in Cleveland, and often waited until the eve of the season to release basic details about his staff — and it struck those close to the head coach that the Krafts were sending a message to fans that they were becoming more involved. And that they had a successor picked out. Kraft later told reporters that Mayo was the “heir apparent.”

The second was hiring Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator. Belichick signed off on bringing him on for a second run — O’Brien was on the Patriots’ staff from 2007 to 2011 — but it was a move heavily influenced by and advocated for by the Krafts. O’Brien had success as a head coach in Houston, more than any other coach from Belichick’s New England run. O’Brien reminded other coaches that after 2022’s Belichick-designed offensive failings under Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, he was brought in to “fix the offense.”

Then, during offseason planning meetings, Belichick later told people in the building, he raised the idea to the Krafts of trading quarterback Mac Jones. The Krafts had embraced Jones after he was drafted in the first round in 2021, hoping to build something close to a Brady-like relationship with him. Jones played well as a rookie under then-coordinator McDaniels, then regressed in 2022 under Belichick’s patchwork offensive staff. Ownership argued against trading him, wanting to see what Jones could do with O’Brien calling plays, which this past week they denied saying through a team spokesperson. Belichick technically could have traded Jones, but he ceded to his bosses. Longtime observers of the Patriots noticed a disconnect in training camp, when Belichick in news conferences almost went out of his way to not compliment Jones. It had already been a strange offseason. At one point, Belichick and Kraft publicly needled each other over the team’s cash spending. Which Belichick hinted was a reason for the lack of recent success. Kraft made it public that he expected a return to the playoffs. Once again, it was coming down to how each man viewed the game’s most vital position.

“I’m going to do what I need to get my quarterback the right people,” Kraft told a confidant.

KRAFT DECIDED TO MAKE the opening of the 2023 season a celebration of the team’s storied past. He invited Brady to return for a halftime ceremony. The night before the game, Brady and his family had dinner at Kraft’s Chestnut Hill home. It was clear that Kraft was trying to do more than prepare for a ceremony for Brady the next day. He was trying to make amends for the quarterback’s awkward departure. The night at Kraft’s house was warm and friendly. Brady’s family joked that they were happy that he had retired but were so bored without his football games, their first fall of freedom since he was 14. Kraft had been forgiven by the Bradys in a way Belichick had not. Tom Sr. often jokes that he has “Irish Alzheimer’s” with those he believes did his son wrong, such as Roger Goodell and the rest of the league, seared into his brain. The Bradys believe in loyalty in a sport that celebrated it, and from a Patriots franchise that has made emotionless roster decisions part of its ethos. When the San Francisco 49ers traded Brady family hero Joe Montana to the Chiefs in 1993, Tom’s mother, Galynn, wrote the team off forever. To this day, she cheers against the Niners.

The afternoon after dinner with Kraft, the Bradys watched the Patriots play the Eagles from the owner’s suite. The family never spoke to Belichick during the trip. The crowd seemed most engaged when Brady sprinted down the field at halftime, capped with his signature fist pump. Brady sat next to Kraft as they watched early editions of the hallmarks of the 2023 Patriots: good defense, turnovers on offense, inability to jump to an early lead, which exposed even worse deficiencies. Everyone in the suite knew that Brady could have stepped in at halftime and been the best quarterback on the field. Over the years, those in Kraft’s orbit have heard the owner “put down Belichick at every opportunity,” a source close to Kraft said. This game was no different. Kraft’s open mocking of Belichick — a common line was “the great, intelligent man” — was the worst-kept secret in New England. Although he denied saying it through a team spokesperson, Kraft used that line too many times to too many people for it to remain a secret.

EVERY LOSS DURING THE Patriots’ 1-5 start added to the running tally of Belichick and Kraft’s record without Brady. As the math got worse, the relationship between Kraft and Belichick remained unchanged on the surface — they were businesslike and distant, two men in an unhappy marriage who couldn’t afford a divorce — and was decaying in private. The relationship between Jonathan Kraft and Belichick, never strong, worsened. Jonathan is protective over his father’s legacy and watched for years as Belichick refused to acknowledge him in the hallways and dismissed him as obsessed with optics. In late 2022, according to a first-hand account, which Jonathan denied this week through a team spokesperson, Jonathan was talking to friends when one of them brought up New England’s losing season.

“That guy’s got to go,” he said about Belichick. “He’s done.”

The losses, combined with the structure Kraft helped set up — empowering Mayo and O’Brien — subtly eroded Belichick’s authority inside the building. The personnel and coaching staffs, intertwined for most of Belichick’s run to avoid the type of back-stabbing common on other teams, started complaining about each other. In years past, Belichick would set a vision and leave it to the staff to execute it, leading to long discussions and creative solutions. That high-level collaborative roundtable was a thing of the past. People in the personnel department privately said that it was “amateur hour” with the coaches on game days; coaches complained that those on the personnel side were incapable of implementing Belichick’s ideas. O’Brien, humbled by the inept offensive performance, was invested in finding a solution with Belichick. Mayo sometimes brought a baseball bat to meetings, swinging it around while the rest of the coaches had their heads down, projecting an attitude that he was separate from the rest, a favored son. Jonathan Kraft and the senior vice president of business affairs for the Kraft Group, Robyn Glaser, would chat with staff off to the side, asking why the head coach had made certain decisions. The subtext of the conversations was that life in Gillette Stadium might be different soon.

Belichick, who since the last Super Bowl win had slowly lost the core of his brain trust — Ernie Adams, McDaniels, Patricia, Jack Easterby, Dante Scarnecchia, Nick Caserio — had a mostly loyal staff who felt pinched between their boss and ownership. Word leaked around the office that if Belichick were gone in 2024, football operations would be split between Glaser and Jonathan Kraft. Patriots coaches and executives thought that “the Krafts’ meddling has got everyone spun around,” a source on the personnel side said.

Belichick’s missteps on roster construction — and in games — had given the Krafts an opening. The offense had no explosive players. Jones looked lost; the alternatives looked worse. Belichick cut backup Bailey Zappe in the preseason, then re-signed him after he cleared waivers. Players thought third-stringer Malik Cunningham could have added a big-play dimension to the offense, but he saw action only in a loss to the Raiders on Oct. 15. He was cut a week later — and 10 days after Belichick signed him to a three-year contract — and signed by Baltimore, the type of front-running move the Patriots used to execute. Local reporters asked Belichick and O’Brien whether Jones would be benched; instead, Belichick left him in games, even when it was clear the quarterback was losing confidence.

“A f— you to Kraft,” a confidant of Belichick’s said.

Kraft remained mostly silent publicly, not speaking to reporters at October’s league meetings about the state of the team. But his ideas for how to replace Belichick started to leak. Trading for then-Titans coach Mike Vrabel was on the table, even if a long shot, bringing home a former Patriot who’d had success and seemed to be a perfect mix between Belichick’s tactical genius and an ability to relate with players. Word of interest in Vrabel found its way to The Boston Globe. After that, there was an NFL Media report — seemingly from Belichick’s side — that he had signed a “lucrative, multiyear” contract. Both men appeared to be leaking against each other. As the season neared its halfway point — and New England lost to Dallas and New Orleans in consecutive weeks by a combined score of 72-3 — Jonathan Kraft was as involved as ever, hammering Belichick behind the scenes about personnel decisions, as if slowly building a case to remove the coach.

“He’s been brutal,” Belichick told a friend.

THE PATRIOTS’ GAME IN Frankfurt, Germany, on Nov. 12 stood out as a window into the dysfunction of 2023. The Krafts told confidants that Belichick was safe until that game, but after that, there were no guarantees. The question was what the Patriots would do if they were to fire Belichick. Would Mayo be the interim coach? Was he ready to be a head coach in 2024? One of the benefits and issues of Belichick’s run was that there wasn’t a lot of infrastructure in New England. It was mostly Belichick, everything flowing out of his experience and ingenuity. What would the hierarchy of the team look like for Mayo if he were to be the head coach? Nobody could answer it.

The relationship between Mayo and Belichick seemed strained to those inside the building. The Boston Sports Journal later reported that Mayo was rubbing other coaches the wrong way.

The Patriots lost in Germany, this time to the Colts. Jones was so broken that Belichick benched him for Zappe before the final drive of the game, New England’s last chance at a comeback. In the coming days, there was no news out of Foxborough. It was business as usual, an unspoken message that Belichick would finish the season. Kraft “didn’t want that to be how the relationship ended,” a source close to him said. Instead, another source said, Kraft wanted “a soft-landing approach for Bill,” where there would be a negotiated settlement. “Money isn’t the object here,” the source said. “The optics are.” Nobody knew more than Belichick how sensitive Kraft could be to public perception.

The two men had spent 25 years together, including the 1996 season, when Belichick was a Patriots assistant under Bill Parcells. Both had a deep understanding of each other’s vanities and insecurities, and in the end, they knew how to hit one another where it hurt. Belichick wasn’t going to make it easy on Kraft. In quiet moments Belichick over the years has mused about running football operations at another team. The Giants, a team he reveres. Washington, near where he was raised. Even Dallas, because he has a good relationship with the Jones family and it would be a fun way to stick it to Kraft, who has asked voters why Jones is in the Hall of Fame, as a way of asking why he is not. But in the end, Belichick didn’t want to be in the executive suite. He wanted to keep coaching. When situations get tense, Belichick has long liked to let them play out. His calm during stressful moments might be his true superpower.

He believes he loses leverage when he moves too fast. As the season went on, there were some whispers around the league and within the Patriots building about what it might be like for him to coach the Panthers, Bills, Bears, Bengals, Cowboys, Commanders or even the Eagles, if their late-season tailspin ends in an early playoff exit. But for most of this year, Belichick seemed most interested in staying put. If Kraft came to him after the season, he would make it clear to confidants that his plan was to say that he had done his best with what ownership wanted, with Mayo, O’Brien and hiring outside on the scouting side. He wanted to force Kraft to decide.

“He’s going to have to move first,” Belichick said.

BY DECEMBER, SOMETHING UNEXPECTED happened: People around the league who had spent two decades disliking but respecting Belichick started to feel sorry for him, watching how the Krafts left him to twist under a barrage of reports about his future. As much as other coaches and executives liked to mock the sanctimoniousness of Belichick, nobody believed in the Patriot Way quite like they did. New England offered proof that another road existed if only you had the discipline to follow it, to be ruthless enough to cross lines along the way and fearless enough to rewrite rules. Before New England’s 2002 Super Bowl against the Rams, Belichick refused to play along with the ritual player introductions and insisted on taking the field together, as a team, no stars, no egos, just a group of proud, talented men with a shared goal and a willingness to chase that goal with relentlessness. That became the norm. The central enemy of the Patriot Way was all those pesky human emotions: kindness, loyalty, friendship, nostalgia, ego. Rejecting those urges is what led to the success, and the inability to reject them is what proved the other 31 teams unable to replicate the blueprint.

As New England’s season started to wind down, and it became clear that the Patriots would again fail to make the playoffs, Kraft groused to his fellow owners, telling them he wished he had a winning team. Ownership told confidants that they felt the game had passed Belichick by. Coaches and players started to rally around their coach in a way last seen during Spygate, angry that their coach’s job status — someone in professional and cultural thin air — was a constant debate topic. The Patriots beat the Steelers and Broncos, two teams with more at stake than New England, on the road in December. It was clear the team hadn’t quit. “I saw no quit in Bill Belichick,” special teams star Matthew Slater said at the end of the season. “If you had sat in our team meetings this week, you would’ve thought we were getting ready for the AFC championship.”

“The Krafts should be ashamed of themselves,” a Patriots assistant coach told a confidant.

Still, no matter how frustrated Kraft was during the season, he tried to keep options open. He had a vision of getting a draft pick for Belichick. If Kraft fired Belichick and whiffed on a replacement, he would have watched Brady win a Super Bowl as a Buccaneer and Belichick become the NFL’s winningest coach ever for another team. Belichick rode the coaches hard down the stretch. His program doesn’t allow anyone to quit. Every meeting has a meeting to prepare for it. Every conversation has a conversation before. Every drill has a drill as a prelude. But the building felt different. Belichick spent more time alone in his office. Over the decades he’d give assistant coaches projects toward the end of the season, preparing for the draft or free agency. He didn’t do that this year.

In one staff meeting, O’Brien got angry with Belichick during a discussion about running plays. He stormed out. The rest of the coaches were quiet, unsure of what to do. Belichick just let it go, knowing it all would be over soon.

The weather was a mess for Belichick’s final game in New England. A dynasty was born in a nor’easter in 2002. The snow that night was almost romantic, Belichick thought, light and strangely warm. There was nothing romantic about the snowstorm that arrived at the end. The field was slush. The stadium was 70% empty. He and Kraft passed on the field and didn’t acknowledge each other. Not even a nod. The Jets — whom Belichick hated so much that for a stretch he didn’t list his time there on his official bio — dominated the entire game and won, ending a fifteen-game losing streak to Belichick. The cameras swarmed as Belichick walked across the field with his face covered by a mask and a hood up. He looked down. Most fans left early to beat the traffic; he gave neither a wave nor a nod to those who stayed to thank him. He had ordered his life and his relationships around the demands and rituals of his craft. He grew up with a dream about what a football team could be if the game were taught well and players and coaches sacrificed celebrity and income for wins. The New England Patriots were the culmination of his life’s work. He walked downstairs, ignoring fans clamoring for his attention, and down a hallway, until he was gone.

FOUR DAYS AFTER the loss to the Jets, Robert Kraft and Bill Belichick stood together on a podium, announcing that their run was over. As he did when he was announced as the Patriots’ head coach in 2000, Belichick began with a joke. Last time, it was Belichick hoping the news conference would go better than his final one with the Jets. This time, he looked at the assembled media.

“Haven’t seen this many cameras since we signed Tebow,” he said.

He spoke for a few minutes, with themes of gratitude and appreciation. He thanked Kraft and “his family,” not mentioning Jonathan by name. He didn’t mention Mayo by name either; less than 24 hours later he would be promoted to head coach. Belichick got choked up only once: when talking about the fan base. He needed no notes. He knew exactly what he wanted to say. He then turned the microphone to his former boss. They shook hands on stage, as awkwardly as they did in 2000. “It’s a very emotional day for me,” Kraft said.

The statements were brief. Kraft and Belichick embraced at the end of it. A confidant of Kraft’s who watched thought it was a virtuoso performance. “Robert’s idea, throughout this process, was how can I look the best I can on this thing?” he said. “He got what he wanted. A hug at the end of the press conference. … Completely amicable. It’s an amazing performance because I don’t think Bill has given Robert eye contact in a year and a half.”

The news conference lasted less than 10 minutes, and it wasn’t really a news conference: No questions were allowed, a Belichick show until the end. Brady wasn’t mentioned.

THAT WAS IT. The end. Brady, Belichick and Kraft had all gone their separate ways. They had won big games together, and lost them, too, and along the way they had escorted one another through all of life’s changes. On the night of Sept. 23, 2001, Brady, Kraft and Belichick were the only Patriots at Mass General, praying Drew Bledsoe would survive. Kraft witnessed Belichick lose both of his parents during the dynastic run, get divorced, and hire both of his sons to the Patriots staff. When Kraft’s wife Myra was alive, Belichick used to hug her before and after each game. Both Bill and Tom were in attendance as Robert laid her to rest in 2011. The two older men watched Brady become a father, and Brady was grateful for how Belichick gave him days off during the 2007 season so he could fly to Los Angeles to see his newborn first son. Through so many moments — when Kraft agreed to send the Jets a first-round pick for Belichick in 2000, during Spygate, during Deflategate — they had no choice but to stick together until the turmoil passed.

Their shared Super Bowl rings, which grew more elaborate and ornate with each title, were monuments to their successes but also to the fact that they achieved those successes together. Without Kraft’s money and patience and instincts, and Belichick’s football education and ethic, and Brady’s arm and determination and willingness to push the boundaries of achievement, none of these victories would have been possible. They needed each other, which may have been what drove them apart.

Tom Brady is playing a lot of golf and traveling the world these days. People who know him well say they’re shocked at how timid he seems right now, starting over personally and professionally. Not long ago his parents caught themselves sitting together binging internet clips of their son’s greatest touchdown passes. They like to do that from time to time. All 649. Retirement lands like a death in the life of a competitor. Brady ran sprints at times this fall, just to feel the feeling.

Belichick is now looking for a new team to build, new men to lead. This is the only life he’s ever known. He grew up on campus at the Naval Academy, the son of a veteran of Okinawa and Normandy, and the military codes and rituals of his childhood remain hardwired. Before the Patriots’ final Super Bowl, when all the rivalries and bitterness had already destroyed so much, Belichick invited a retired admiral to speak to the team. Adm. Thomas C. Lynch, who commanded aircraft carriers in combat, gave a speech familiar to generations of midshipmen. He reminded the Patriots of something their owner, coach and quarterback had taken further than any group of men in modern NFL history yet had somehow forgotten along the way: “Ship, Shipmate, Self.” The Patriot Way was always Team, Teammate, Self, until it wasn’t.

Belichick made clear in the news conference with Kraft that he isn’t done coaching, at least not until he passes Don Shula. Kraft is starting over. At the news conference, he told the room that the coach would be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He stood next to Belichick as he said it, but he looked alone up there, alone with his choices. He desperately wants to be in Canton, of course. It’s one thing his money cannot purchase, beyond his control. There’s a list of about 40 candidates that Hall of Fame voters have been paring down over the years, from Mike Shanahan to Mike Holmgren, and Kraft has struggled to break through. He was close years ago, when the dynasty was nearing its end but we still felt its presence, and feared it on Sundays. But time, the virtues of other candidates, some of the Patriots’ rule violations over the years, and an issue of his own creation in Florida keep pushing him back. He wasn’t among the finalists this year. He will be 83 years old in June.

THIS AND THAT

2024 DRAFT

QB CALEB WILLIAMS, who reportedly had been demanding that he not be picked by the Bears with the first overall pick, is still foregoing USC’s massive NIL deal to enter the draft.

“Former NFL scout” Daniel Kelly casts this warning about Williams at FirstRoundMock.com:

I’ve now evaluated USC quarterback (QB) Caleb Williams in every snap he took in 2022 and 2023 and I’ve written approximately 11,850 words reflecting on him in articles.

The takeaway: Williams is too undisciplined, moody, and immature to ever realize his potential.

Yes, he is loaded with God-given raw arm strength, and elite ability to create and extend (which is the draw to him), but he’s underdeveloped in the finer points of the position. His skillset doesn’t translate well to the next level ⎯the NFL game is about quick time to throw, precise downfield ball placement, and ball security.

The only box he checks is ball security improving from 35 pass breakups (2.5 avg.) in 2022 to 15 in 2023 (1.25 avg.).

2023 went sideways

Williams won the 2022 Heisman Trophy, but it amounted to a second-round grade watching him through my ‘NFL-colored glasses.’ He tended to hold the ball too long and to lock in with receivers.

The first three games of 2023 (San Jose State, Nevada, and Stanford) gave me optimism he had improved, but then ASU happened. He was excellent against Colorado but mediocre against the University of Arizona.

And then things went off the rails.

The true litmus test would be against ranked competition.

What happened?

USC faced Notre Dame, Utah, CAL, Washington, Oregon, and UCLA and dropped five out of six and Williams’ became unglued.

Concerns

1. Downward trajectory ⎯Williams regressed in 2023.

2. NFL Expectations ⎯will be crazy high. The expectations alone will cause him to be a bust.

3. Time to throw ⎯Pro Football Focus recorded Williams at 3.44 seconds in 2022 and 3.21 seconds in 2023. Williams was sacked 63 times (2022-2023). Only seven NFL QBs are over 3 seconds (NEXT GEN STATS). Bears’ QB Justin Fields was the slowest (3.23 seconds). Fields was sacked 99 times (2022-2023).

4. Glorifed system QB ⎯I did an independent study this season, Williams’ best completion percentages came throwing 44-62% short passes. His three worst games (55.9%-57.5%) were fewer short passes.

5. Not a big game QB ⎯Williams was 2-9 against ranked teams the past two seasons.

6. Fumbles ⎯ 32 fumbles in 36 games.

7. Post-game conduct ⎯refused to shake hands with Utah and refused to talk to reporters after the UCLA loss.

8. Nature ⎯Wants to get out of structure as a passer and get reckless as a runner (increased injury risk). He reverts to locking in with receivers. Additionally, he talked down about a fan calling him a “sheep,” and he does unpredictable and uncensored things ranging from painting obscenities on his fingernails to jumping into the stands and crying in his mother’s arms.

9. Inexperienced dealing with adversity ⎯According to Sports Illustrated (Nov. 28, 2023) Williams said, “I’ve never been in this situation, where I’m 7–5 and there are no playoff hopes at the end of the season. I’m dealing with it emotionally, dealing with it spiritually and physically. ”

10. Holiday Bowl ⎯USC bounced right back (same offensive line and defense) against No. 15 Louisville with QB Miller Moss who was making his first career start and he matched Williams’ USC high of six touchdown passes in a game.

Here is what Kelly has to say about another uber prospect, WR MARVIN HARRISON, Jr.:

While the rest of the free world is busy kissing Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.’s helmet, I am here to shed some light on the mainstream narrative. I am going to dare to write something different than the choir.

Keep in mind, I’m not doing this for clicks. My end game is to get back into the NFL.

Is Harrison talented?

Yes, he is.

Is Harrison a first-round talent?

Yes, he is.

Is Harrison a top-5 value?

No, he’s not.

Why not?

Game film.

Harrison has it all from the neck down

Just about everybody will tell you Harrison is the best thing since sliced bread. This is why over 99% of mainstream draft platforms have him as a first-round pick and currently the ‘consensus’ No. 4 pick overall.

The 33rd Team (that was founded by one of my bosses back with the Jets, Mike Tannenbaum), CBS, NBC Sports Chicago, Fox Sports, The Athletic, NYPost, USA Today, Pro Football Focus, Bleacher Report, Pro Football Network and Draft Kings ⎯among others ⎯have all put a top-5 grade on Harrison just since December 1.

Even during the Notre Dame game, the television commentator said, “NFL Scouts call him comically good.”

The issue is when Harrison dogs it on film.

SAY WHAT?

Yes, he’s talented, but he’s an underachiever. In other words, he doesn’t run every route or go after every pass with the same intensity he shows he’s capable of.

The problem is, that Harrison looks like a possession receiver in the short-to-intermediate route levels, but he doesn’t make himself much of a deep threat on film. He isn’t running away from defenses after the catch on film. The problem is, he doesn’t show much fight for contested passes on film.

This isn’t Hall of Fame receiver Randy Moss.

Catch rate concern

The issue?

While it’s impressive Harrison maintained similar production with former Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud and QB Kyle McCord in back-to-back seasons, there was a difference in catch rate which supports what’s on film. Stroud’s ball placement was precise. McCord, not so much.

2021 (with Stroud): 11 catches on 20 targets (55%)

2022 (with Stroud): 77 catches on 119 targets (64.7%)

2023 (with McCord, Devin Brown, and Lincoln Keinholz): 67 catches on 117 targets (57.2%)

College career = 155 catches on 256 targets (60.5%)

Note to NFL teams: Harrison ideally needs a QB who can deliver precise downfield ball placement.

Note to NFL teams: Harrison and McCord were high school teammates.

Draft day value

Harrison did not blow me away (well he did on two plays in eight games). I get the hype machine, but I can’t justify valuing him higher than former Ohio State receivers Garrett Wilson (2022: No. 10) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (2023: No. 20). He has the lazy streak Chris Olave (2022: No. 11) showed on film.

Harrison is a lab mix of the three of them.

Harrison will make a solid receiver whose game film values him in the range between pick No. 10 ⎯No. 20.