The Daily Briefing Tuesday, January 17, 2023

It’s easy to say that the Jaguars are in 8^th and most would probably have the Giants in 7^th?  But after that?  Let’s check in with Vegas through Jennifer Piacenti of SI.com:

Super Bowl LVII Outright Winner Odds

• Kansas City Chiefs +275

• Buffalo Bills +300

• San Francisco 49ers +400

• Philadelphia Eagles +500

• Cincinnati Bengals +750

• Dallas Cowboys +800

• New York Giants +2000

• Jacksonville Jaguars +2500

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs remain atop the list at +275. They will be fresh and rested coming off a bye. Their No. 1 ranked offense surely has what it takes to overpower the Jacksonville Jaguars, but will their defense let them down? Kansas City’s offense is ranked first, but their defense allowed the most passing TDs this year (33). The Chiefs are favored by 8.5 for the divisional round, the largest margin at SI Sportsbook.

If you like an underdog, Trevor Lawrence hasn’t lost a game since Week 13. At 25 to one odds, you don’t have a lot to lose if you pull a ticket for the Jaguars (+2500).

The Buffalo Bills are next up (+300). The Bills were my early pick for Super Bowl champs, but they only squeaked by Miami and a third-string QB last weekend 34-31 after entering the contest favored by 13.5. Will Josh Allen stop turning the ball over? I expect fireworks vs. the Bengals (+750) this weekend. Cincinnati has a Top 7 offense and Top 6 defense, and we will see the game we missed in Week 17. Burrow hasn’t lost a game since Week 8, but Cincinnati also failed the cover the spread vs. a backup QB last Sunday. Cincinnati could be without LT Jonah Williams, and Joe Burrow could have trouble staying upright, but it’s also hard to bet against the reigning AFC champs at +750, who are looking for a back-to-back trip to the Super Bowl.

The San Francisco 49ers proved they don’t need a star QB; they need Mr. Irrelevant. Brock Purdy looked every bit as calm and collected as a veteran as the Niners coasted to a 41-23 rout of the Seahawks in the second half of Saturday’s matchup. With the No. 1 ranked defense and a top-six offense. It’s hard to bet against Kyle Shanahan and his stacked San Francisco team (+400).

The Eagles (+500) will be coming off a bye and draw the matchup with the red-hot New York Giants (+2000), who came within six points of the Eagles in Week 18 with a third-string QB and no starters. The Eagles’ success relies completely on Jalen Hurts’s health, so bet accordingly.

The Dallas Cowboys (+800), after looking like a JV squad in Week 18, sent the GOAT packing last weekend. Tom Brady mustered only 13 points vs. a menacing Dallas defense, and Dak Prescott was on another level. Can they keep it up? First, they must get past the San Francisco 49ers—and find a kicker.

We’re not sure why the odds are more than twice as long on the Bengals as the Bills.

MINNESOTA

This from Chris Simms:

@CSimmsQB

I don’t like the Kirk Cousins pile on today after the Vikings had one of the worst defensive performances we’ve seen all season.

I understand he’s not a superstar. But he is one of the LEAST concerning things in Minnesota.

DALLAS

In a moment of team glory, PK BRETT MAHER became the first player in history to miss four extra points in either a regular season or postseason NFL game since at least 1970.  Seven kickers, most recently Matt Gay, then of the Buccaneers, in 2019, had missed three.

We haven’t figured out how to look up whether it was some sort of record that Monday’s Cowboys-Buccaneers game had 45 combined points, with only 1 point scored by kicking.  Has to be, doesn’t it?

– – –

Michael Rosenberg of SI.com takes note of how good the Cowboys looked on Monday night:

Dak Prescott’s Cowboys just beat Tom Brady’s Buccaneers 31–14 and it was not as close as Brett Maher made it seem. Maher, the Cowboys’ kicker, missed four extra points, but at least he did it on a night when “extra points” were aptly named. They were unnecessary.

This was a straightforward beatdown, the kind that we all should have expected but still couldn’t quite believe as it happened. These were the Cowboys against Brady, after all, and picking Dallas meant focusing on this year’s teams and ignoring a generation of football. The task seemed more daunting than it was, but now that it’s over, let’s recognize the Cowboys for what they are: a legitimate threat not just to make the Super Bowl, but to win it.

They might not be quite as good as the Eagles or 49ers, but they’re within the margin of error. The biggest reason to doubt them is logistics: They will (most likely) have to win two road games, and including practice sessions, they must go from Dallas to Tampa to Dallas to San Francisco to Dallas to (most likely) Philadelphia, and though Jerry Jones is unlikely to make them fly commercial, that much travel can wear on a team.

Still, these Cowboys are every bit as talented as Philly and San Francisco, and they played like it Monday night in Tampa. Calling anything easy in the NFL is a privilege of those who have not had their legs twisted under a pile by 300-pound men. But by the standards of NFL playoff games … well, this was easy. The Cowboys played extremely well and won by a lot. They probably could have played O.K. and still won comfortably. It is hard to think of anything the Bucs did better than the Cowboys, and that includes kicking extra points. The Cowboys were 1-for-5, but the Bucs didn’t try any.

The Cowboys dominated the line of scrimmage and seemed a step faster all over the field. Brady had one of the emptiest 350-yard passing games you’ll ever see. He spent much of the night throwing to ghosts.

The Cowboys have three All-Pros (edge Micah Parsons, receiver CeeDee Lamb, guard Zack Martin) and enough other players who can play at that level for spells. Yes, this includes Prescott. He was not near his best this season, but he also came back from an injury midstream, and that’s harder than it seems. He has played well enough for long enough in the past to instill hope he would be an upper-tier quarterback again. After a rough first drive, he sure looked the part Monday night.

Now the Cowboys play San Francisco and the quarterbacking flavor of the moment, Brock Purdy. Once, Prescott was Purdy, a draft afterthought who took over when an entrenched starter got hurt and never looked back. Playoff disappointments and injuries have obscured how good he can be. He just reminded the Bucs, and everyone else, with 305 yards, four passing TDs and another score on the ground.

Parsons and Lamb are game-changers. Tight end Dalton Schultz just abused the Bucs for seven catches, 95 yards and two touchdowns. Tony Pollard and Zeke Elliott are a devastating combo at running back. It has become easy to question Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy, who sometimes makes in-game decisions straight out of 1987. But McCarthy is 24–10 in the past two regular seasons, and there is a lot more to coaching than making the correct decision on fourth-and-3. With defensive coordinator Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, the Cowboys have two of the hotter head coaching candidates in the NFL.

The Cowboys just won their first road playoff game in 30 years. They look capable of winning two more.

CAROLINA

Brad Barreman of LionsSidelineReport.com collects the trail for Detroit OC and the Panthers job:

Ben Johnson will have his third of three head coaching interviews this week, and that job is reportedly the one the Lions offensive coordinator is the favorite to get.

As head coaching searches started around the league, the interview schedule for Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson filled up quickly. He interviewed with the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts late last week, and he’s slated to talk to the Carolina Panthers on Wednesday this week.

On Sunday, CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones reported Johnson “has the lead” for the Panthers job. Jones once covered the Panthers as a beat writer, so he may still be pretty plugged in there.

Joe Person of The Athletic in a mailbag piece (h/t to Lions Wire for the passage) had a note about Johnson’s candidacy for the job in Carolina.

The buzz in league circles is that Tepper is enamored with Johnson, whose innovative schemes helped the Lions finish fifth in the NFL in scoring offense and total offense in his first season as offensive coordinator. Johnson’s a sharp guy — with degrees from UNC in math and computer science — so you’d have to think he’s going to nail his interview this week.

Lions rumors: How bad do the Carolina Panthers want Ben Johnson?

It’s really only a matter of time before Johnson is an NFL head coach, and he would hardly be the first one with one season as a coordinator/play-caller to get a head coaching job if he gets one now. His work with Jared Goff this season elevated his status as a bright head coaching candidate very quickly.

Head coaching searches around the league will not necessarily be complete until candidates on teams who are in the playoffs or make deep playoff runs can be interviewed and hired. But the Panthers may move quickly after owner David Tepper and general manager Scott Fitterer talk to Johnson this week, if he’s the guy they want most and he holds that status in the interview.

Born in Charleston, South Carolina, high school in Asheville, NC, UNC educated, he checks the local connections box.

Interestingly, in 2020 he was the tight ends coach on Matt Patricia’s Lions staff and was retained by Dan Campbell.

TAMPA BAY

The stat line does not look horrendous – 35 of 66 for 351 yards, 2 TDs, 2 sacks, 1 INT – but if you were there the 31 incompletions stand out.

Mike Jones of The Athletic on QB TOM BRADY’s last game of 2022:

This is not how Tom Brady drew it up.

Monday’s 31-14 throttling at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys in an NFC wild-card playoff game was not what Brady envisioned when he ended his 40-day retirement late last winter for one more stab at glory with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

But storybook endings are often hard to achieve even for the greatest of sports legends, and Monday night, the player regarded as the GOAT endured one of the worst playoff performances of his storied career and failed to advance past the first round for only the fourth time in 20 appearances.

Two late-game touchdown throws helped make the final score and stats look a little less unsightly. But as Brady completed just 53 percent of his 66 pass attempts, he and his team never really threatened the Cowboys.

Although the 45-year-old Brady still ranked among the top passers in the NFL during a regular season that featured great struggles for the Buccaneers, that efficiency didn’t carry over into the postseason.

He looked like a shell of himself against the Cowboys. His passes sailed wide left, wide right, high and, at times, bounced at the feet of his wide receivers. Long known for the precision of a surgeon, Brady instead looked woefully inept. And to make matters worse, Brady’s teammates offered little in the way of support through a strong run game or quality defensive outing. Now, a brief, but memorable era appears to have come to an unceremonious end.

It’s clear that Brady and the Buccaneers have squeezed as much as they could out of this union. The magic has run out, and signs point to the end of his Tampa chapter.

Pressed on his timeline for determining his future, Brady said only after the game: “I’m going to go home, get a good night’s sleep as good as I can. … There has been a lot of focus on this game, so, just going to be one day at a time.”

He said the Cowboys “put a lot of pressure on us, and we couldn’t make enough plays. I’d say it’s how we played all year — just weren’t efficient in the passing game and not very good in the run game. It’s hard to beat a good team like that.”

The Buccaneers’ struggles against Dallas came as little surprise.

As Brady alluded, nothing came easy in the past year: Brady retired and unretired, Super Bowl-winning head coach Bruce Arians abruptly resigned, and retirements, free-agency departures and injuries littered the roster.

Tampa Bay managed to endure the trials and tribulations of the regular season and won the NFC South with an 8-9 record. It finally seemed to have regained improved health at just the right time and hoped to pull off one last quest for a Lombardi Trophy.

As usual, those hopes rested squarely on the shoulders of Brady, who after 20 storied seasons in New England migrated south in 2020 and delivered a Super Bowl victory in that first season with Tampa Bay.

Vegas had its doubts about Tom Terrific’s capabilities this time around, and thus billed his Buccaneers as 2 1/2-point underdogs despite playing at home. Brady, his teammates and the Tampa Bay faithful still believed, however.

When Brady took the field for pregame warmups at 7:26 p.m. to his signature walkout song (Jay-Z’s “Public Service Announcement,” just as he has for the better part of the last two decades), the atmosphere at Raymond James Stadium was electric.

“Allow me to reintroduce myself,” Jay-Z boomed over the sound system, and Brady jogged along the home sideline and into the north end zone, where he punched the air with all his might and yelled, “LET’S GO!” whipping his fans into a frenzy.

But the life was sucked out of the stadium before halftime. By the middle of the first quarter, Tampa Bay had stumbled to a pair of three-and-outs and given up one touchdown to Dallas. Then, a few ticks into the second quarter, Brady threw a rare red zone interception from 5 yards out. Dallas marched 80 yards to take a 12-0 lead.

As far as first halves go, they don’t come much uglier than Monday’s did for Brady and the Buccaneers offense. Rhythm and sustainability were elusive. Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn proved masterful in his game plan; his defenders refused to let Brady find any semblance of comfort in the pocket. As a result, the quarterback’s passes frequently missed their marks, some got deflected at the line and others nearly got picked off.

The future Hall of Famer just didn’t have it, and neither did the Bucs defense, which yielded gaping holes in the secondary and gave up 246 first-half yards, three touchdowns and 15 first downs. Dak Prescott set a franchise record with 11 consecutive first-half completions and also threw for two touchdowns and rushed for another to build an 18-0 halftime lead.

Brady retreated to the locker room scoreless for the first time since his playoff debut against the Raiders in January 2002. In that game, Brady and the Patriots had only a 7-0 halftime deficit to overcome and did, winning 16-13. But as he and the Buccaneers opened the second half of Monday’s game with yet another three-and-out, it appeared as if the most decorated quarterback in league history no longer had another comeback in him.

As if to confirm those suspicions, Prescott directed yet another scoring drive to extend his team’s lead to 24-0.

The third quarter did end with a pop of positivity. Brady, after settling for dump-offs and check-down throws all night, finally went deep and connected with Julio Jones for his team’s first points of the game. But then came a woefully off-target throw on the two-point conversion attempt, and Dallas answered right back with Prescott’s fourth touchdown pass of the game.

With their team headed toward certain defeat, the bulk of Tampa Bay’s fans headed for the exits midway through the fourth quarter. They missed Brady’s second touchdown pass of the game (an 8-yard strike to Cameron Brate with 2:04 left), and possibly his last as a Buccaneer. They also missed the final flurry of desperation following an onside kick recovery. Brady had a wide-open Mike Evans for a deep throw going into the end zone. But Evans dropped it. Fitting. And two throws later, facing fourth-and-6, Brady’s final throw sailed high and off the outstretched hand of Jones.

After congratulating his counterparts on the win, Brady jogged off the field, waved at the crowd and tipped his cap as he approached the tunnel, where his mother, father and sister greeted him with hugs.

Now comes the wait for Brady’s next move. His body of work during the regular season — where he again set the NFL single-season record for pass completions (490) and ranked among the league leaders in completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception ratio while topping the 4,500-yard mark — suggests that he still has plenty left in the tank.

Monday night’s performance suggests otherwise. But a patchwork offensive line that betrayed its quarterback throughout the season again did Brady no favors, as did a defense that has struggled on third downs and in the red zone.

A return to Tampa Bay seems unlikely, as the Bucs are in need of a roster overhaul and rebuild that Brady likely wants no part of. Brady seemed to confirm this in his postgame news conference, which he concluded by expressing appreciation for the Buccaneers organization and thanking local reporters for their coverage and the respect they had shown him the last three years.

But he doesn’t sound like a man that’s done with football, and so speculation about his next destination has included his native San Francisco, Las Vegas, Tennessee and even the New York Jets. But those decisions will come later.

In the moments immediately following his rare early playoff exit, Brady preferred to remain present while also appreciating how hard it is to author fairy-tale endings.

“You always want every year to end great, but unfortunately, sports doesn’t work that way,” he said. “There are 32 teams in the league, they’re all very competitive and only one of them is going to feel good at the end of the year. … That’s why it feels good when you’re on top when you win it all. It’s a great feeling.”

A great feeling that Brady likely will continue to pursue at least one more time. But where?

Last year, the DB thought QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO might stay with the 49ers.

Now, we are not as sure as others that Brady is heading elsewhere.

Scott Reynolds of Pewter Report, who has been around the block with the Bucs and their management for a long time, hit send on this shortly after Tampa Bay’s last pass clanked to the ground.

We note the last paragraph:

Now that the Bucs’ 2022 season has come to a close following Tampa Bay’s 31-14 loss to Dallas in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, Pewter Report is reporting that the team is expected to fire offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich.

This move has been anticipated by Pewter Report for some time. The Bucs offense generated 386 yards against Dallas, but only ran the ball for 52 yards as Tampa Bay fell behind early and trailed 18-0 at halftime. More importantly, the Bucs offense produced only 14 points after trailing Dallas, 24-0 in the third quarter.

Tampa Bay won the NFC South despite averaging just 18.4 points per game in the regular season, which was the lowest in the division.

Todd Bowles, who will return as the Bucs’ head coach in 2023, inherited Bruce Arians’ coaching staff when he stepped down on March 30 and named Tampa Bay’s defensive coordinator as his replacement. Now, Bowles will have the chance to make a change at play-caller after the Bucs’ offense ranked 25th in the NFL in scoring this year.

Leftwich has been the team’s play-caller since the 2019 season when he worked with quarterback Jameis Winston. Tom Brady replaced Winston at quarterback in 2020 and helped lead the Bucs to a victory in Super Bowl LV. The Bucs averaged 30.8 points per game in 2020, which ranked second in the league.

Last year, Tampa Bay’s offense averaged 29.9 points per game, which also ranked second in the NFL, while the Bucs went 13-4 and won the NFC South. But the team’s scoring has fallen by nearly two touchdowns per game as the offense has seen a reduction in talent in 2022.

Pro Bowl left guard Ali Marpet and future Hall of Fame tight end Rob Gronkowski retired, and Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen injured his knee on the second day of training camp. Wide receiver Antonio Brown, who has Hall of Fame credentials, quit on the team late in the 2021 season.

But despite less talent and several injuries at wide receiver and along the offensive line, Leftwich has not been able to show enough creativity or make the necessary adjustments to overcome the deficiencies.

Poor play-sequencing, predictability on offense and some questionable personnel usage all doomed Leftwich this season. Tampa Bay has struggled on third downs and in the red zone, as well as running the ball. The Bucs’ ground game ranked last in 2022, averaging a woeful 76.9 yards per game, which makes it one of the worst rushing attacks of all time.

Bowles wanted the Bucs to run the ball better and more often in 2022. Instead, Brady led the NFL in passing attempts (733) and completions (490) for a second straight season.

Bucs Contemplated Firing Leftwich During The Season

The Bucs okayed a plan to fire Leftwich at midseason – either after the Ravens game on Thursday Night Football or after the bye week. Instead, Bowles decided to trust his defense and Brady’s heroics and hoped that Leftwich and the offensive staff could make some improvements along the way, which didn’t happen. It’s likely that Bowles didn’t see a potential upgrade at play-caller on the current staff, which is why he stayed with Leftwich for the rest of the year.

Even if he wanted to make some changes at play-caller and to the offensive coaching staff, Bowles really couldn’t due to the timing of his promotion, which was two weeks after the start of free agency. All of the assistants that Bowles might have wanted to hire were either on existing NFL coaching staffs or committed to college coaching staffs.

Plus, Leftwich was coming off two seasons in which the Bucs went 24-9 in the regular season and 5-1 in the postseason. Bowles would have caught an incredible amount of flak for firing Leftwich – even if he saw the decline of the Bucs’ offense coming before anyone else did.

After two years of the Bucs scoring 30 points on the regular, Leftwich’s unit only scored 30 points or more twice in 2022. The first time was in Week 4 in a 41-31 loss to Kansas City, and the last time was in Week 17 when Tampa Bay beat Carolina, 30-24, to clinch the NFC South title.

Leftwich’s expected departure is not expected to have any bearing whatsoever on whether Brady returns to Tampa Bay in 2023.

There is a chance that Bowles will make additional changes to the offensive coaching staff in addition to letting Leftwich go.

Potential replacements for Leftwich at offensive coordinator include Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken, Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien (who used to be the Houston Texans head coach) and former Indianapolis Colts head coach Frank Reich.

Will any of these prospective replacements sign on board without knowing who the QB might be?

– – –

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com crunched some numbers:

If Monday night’s game was Tom Brady‘s final contest as a member of the Buccaneers, the Bucs got their money’s worth.

Brady threw 66 passes in the 31-14 defeat. It was the second most attempts in any postseason game in NFL history, behind only the 68 passes thrown by former Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in a 202o wild-card loss to the Browns.

Quarterbacks have thrown 60 or more passes in postseason games eight times. Tom Brady and Drew Brees have done it twice.

It’s usually not a good sign; a quarterback throws that much when his team is trailing. Indeed, quarterbacks who have thrown 60 or more times in a postseason game are 2-6 in those contests.

One of the wins came six years ago, in Super Bowl LI. That’s when Brady threw 62 passes in order to reverse a 28-3 deficit to the Falcons.

For his career, Brady has now thrown 50 or more passes in 10 postseason games. He’s 6-4 in those games.

He also has completed 30 or more passes in 11 postseason games. Last night’s 35 completions ties Brady with himself from a 2017 win over the Titans for eighth place.

With two TD passes on Monday night, Brady has now thrown 88 TDs in the postseason.  After that you have Joe Montana and Aaron Rodgers with 45.

ARIZONA

The Cardinals have a new GM.  Nick Shook of NFL.com:

Arizona has zeroed in on its next personnel chief.

The Cardinals are hiring Titans executive Monti Ossenfort as general manager, NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero reported Monday, per sources. The team subsequently announced the hiring.

“It was critically-important for us to find the right person to lead us as general manager and there is no doubt in my mind that we have that in Monti Ossenfort,” Cardinals owner Michael Bidwill said in a statement. “He possesses every attribute of a successful GM — passion, leadership, intelligence, work ethic — and his extensive experience has clearly prepared him for this role. We could not be more thrilled to have Monti and his family joining the Cardinals.”

Ossenfort has been a popular name in recent GM hiring cycles, interviewing with a number of teams in the last few years, but ultimately remaining in Tennessee. Ossenfort was once again a hot candidate early in the GM cycle this year, interviewing with the Titans among other teams. Unlike past years, he’s leaving Tennessee a little over a month after the Titans fired GM Jon Robinson.

Ossenfort began his NFL career in Minnesota as a training camp intern before joining Houston as a pro personnel intern, eventually moving his way up to college scout after a one-year stint in New England. He returned to the Patriots in 2006, working his way up to director of college scouting. Ossenfort joined the Titans in 2020 as director of player personnel, serving in that role through the 2022 season.

He joins a Cardinals team in need of a new direction after firing coach Kliff Kingsbury and accepting the resignation of GM Steve Keim. Arizona positioned itself as a contender in the last few seasons, adding veteran talents like J.J. Watt, A.J. Green and DeAndre Hopkins, but falling short in each attempt.

Ossenfort will be tasked with interviewing and hiring Kingsbury’s replacement. With quarterback Kyler Murray under contract and the framework of a competitive team intact, he’ll be entrusted with delivering what Kingsbury and Keim couldn’t in their time together.

The DB is trying to grasp the dynamic that the Titans did not want to keep Ossenfort as their GM, but Arizona thought he was the guy.  Nick Suss of The Tennessean:

In addition to Ossenfort, the Titans have interviewed five other GM candidates: interim GM and vice president of player personnel Ryan Cowden, San Francisco 49ers director of player personnel Ran Carthon, Cleveland Browns assistant GM and vice president of player personnel Glenn Cook, Chicago Bears assistant GM Ian Cunningham and Cardinals vice president of player personnel Quentin Harris.

The Titans parted ways with GM Jon Robinson in December. Ossenfort was not promoted to interim GM after Robinson’s dismissal despite interviewing for GM positions in the past. While with the Patriots organization, Ossenfort was part of four Super Bowl winning teams.

SAN FRANCISCO

Crazy BROCK PURDY stat that is also a tribute to the running ability of his receivers:

@JL_Chapman

Brock Purdy completed 18 passes vs the Seahawks.

3 went for TDs and the other 15 were all first downs.

That is insane!

And, in fact it is too good because Mr. Chapman may be unaware that in the NFL a TD pass is considered good for a first down even if it wouldn’t have been a first down such as in a goal to go situation.

There were three Purdy completions that did not net a first down on Saturday.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Jim Trotter of NFL.com has been around the Chargers for a long time – and he offers a long Twitter thread on whether or not the team will can Brandon Staley and get in the Sean Payton game:

@JimTrotter_NFL

OK, let’s talk Chargers. The ground rules: I am not going to tell you what  *I*  would do; I’m going to tell you what I think ownership will do, based on more than two decades of being around the team. …

Cutting to the chase, I do not believe they will fire Brandon Staley. However I do believe there will be changes to the staff. …

I believe that Sean Payton has never been a serious consideration because the team has never given serious consideration to firing Staley. And even if they were ot make a change, there are too many factors working against Payton walking their sideline. Those factors include …

Draft picks. The Chargers love draft capitol. They have exercised a first-round pick in each of the last 23 drafts, and not likely to give up multiple picks, including a No. 1, for Payton. …

Contract. Payton figures to be one of the league’s higher-paid coaches when he joins a team, and the Chargers simply don’t spend on coaches in that way. Their last three hires have all been first-time head coaches who didn’t command large salaries. However …

People who call them cheap are ill-informed. I was a beat writer when they pursued Bill Parcells and Jimmy Johnson. The talks never got to money, nor would money have been an issue. Parcells and Johnson were simply content with their lives on the East Coast and out of football.

One more thought about on the money issue: I’ve seen them pay top dollar for players – Seau, LT, Weddle, Rivers, Bosa, James, Jackson. The negotiations may have been hard, but the players ultimately got paid, some setting the bar at their positions. …

Ownership also believes in checks and balances. Dean Spanos is allergic to giving full authority to one person. Payton had significant influence in New Orleans and likely will want it at his next stop. …

Lastly – and I know many of you do not want to hear it – the leadership likes a lot of things about Staley: the way he leads, communicates, schemes, and carries himself. That means a lot to them.

No one is happy about the Jags loss, but I believe ownership is confident that Staley, who finished 9-8 and 10-7 his first two seasons, will continue to grow into the job; he was hired only 5 years after working as a D3 defensive coordinator & had only 1 year as an NFL DC.

Make of it what you will, but that’s how I see things shaking out.

And on Tuesday, the Chargers bounced OC Joe Lombardi with Lindsey Thiry of ESPN.com offering the reasons (and the mitigating WR injuries are buried late):

The Los Angeles Chargers have fired offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and quarterbacks coach Shane Day, the team announced Tuesday.

Changes have been expected to head coach Brandon Staley’s staff after a 10-7 season and a stunning loss Saturday in a wild-card playoff game in which the Chargers surrendered a 27-point lead and lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars 31-30.

The Chargers held a 27-0 lead in the second quarter but scored only three points the remainder of the game.

Staley and general manager Tom Telesco are scheduled to meet with reporters Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

Despite the ability of quarterback Justin Herbert, who this season passed Andrew Luck for the most passing yards by a quarterback through his first three NFL seasons, the Bolts’ offense consistently underperformed, going three-and-out on 21.7% of their drives, which ranked 18th in the NFL.

They also consistently underperformed in the run game and red zone.

The Chargers’ rush attack ranked near the bottom of the NFL in several categories, including average rushing yards per game (89.6, 30th) and yards per rush (3.8, 30th). In the red zone, the Chargers converted only 54.1% of their drives into touchdowns (17th), and their goal-to-go percentage was 65.6% (23rd).

After halftime, the offense often was outpaced by opponents with a second-half scoring margin of minus-48, which amounted to the seventh worst in the league.

After posting the third-best Total QBR in his second season (behind Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers), Herbert’s ranking dipped to 11th in the NFL this season. A year after passing for 38 touchdowns as a second-year pro, Herbert this season passed for 25. Despite arm strength being among his most notable talents, Herbert averaged only 6.78 yards per attempt (26th) as the Chargers often struggled to create explosive opportunities downfield.

Herbert did, however, play several games with fractured rib cartilage, which he suffered late in a Week 2 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

The offense also experienced several significant injuries throughout the season.

Wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams played only four complete games together (23% of snaps) because of injuries, and Williams was not available in the wild-card playoff game after suffering a small fracture to his back in Week 18.

The offensive line — which ranked near the bottom of the league in pass block and run block win rates — lost left tackle Rashawn Slater, who was named to the Pro Bowl in 2021 as a rookie, in Week 3 because of a torn left biceps tendon. The Chargers also played three games without veteran center Corey Linsley and right tackle Trey Pipkins III because of injuries.

The sixth overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft, Herbert is now eligible to sign a contract extension. He is anticipated to command more than $50 million per year and become the highest-paid quarterback in the league.

Lombardi and Day, who also held the title of passing game coordinator, were among the initial staff hired by Staley when he was named head coach in 2021.

Mike Florio:

The grandson of Vince Lombardi won’t be pursuing a Lombardi Trophy in 2023 with the Chargers.

The Chargers have announced that they have “parted ways” with offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. Also out is quarterbacks coach/passing game coordinator Shane Day.

The move implies that coach Brandon Staley will return for a third season, 27-point playoff collapse notwithstanding. If that’s what ownership has decided, that’s ownership’s business.

But there’s a bigger business consideration for ownership to ponder. They surely want to compete with, if not overtake, the Rams in the L.A. market. With quarterback Justin Herbert nudging toward the front end of his prime, do they want an offensive-minded head coach who can get the most out of his unique skills and abilities?

Apparently, they’re content to let their defensive-minded coach try again, when it comes to hiring coaches tasked with getting the most out of Herbert. (If, of course, they do, they’ll become head-coaching candidates elsewhere — and may have to be replaced for very different reasons.)

It makes sense to make changes to the offensive approach. Throughout 2022, it seemed as if their offense wasn’t what it could have been, not with Herbert as the straw stirring what had become a lukewarm glass of pulp-filled orange juice.

Would it have been expensive to buy out Staley and go all in for someone like Sean Payton? Yes. Would that expense potentially have to untold profits? Quite possibly.

Here’s the other thing to consider. Saturday night’s game will leave a mark that could be hard to overcome, even with a new offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. And even though multiple players have spoken out in favor of Staley, they’re like the rest of us. They don’t like change. They want to try it again with the apparatus in place. They believe that a reset to 0-0 will lead to different results.

For the Chargers, different hasn’t happened. It’s been nearly 30 years since their lone Super Bowl appearance, a blowout loss to the 49ers that capped the 1994 season. Do they go all in to alter the status quo, or do they keep treading water?

The Chargers have chosen a half-measure. And half measures don’t work, more than half the time.

Consider prior teams that have had a season end with a devastating and historic playoff loss. It doesn’t evaporate quickly. The 2014 Seahawks, with the fateful decision to pass when they should have run, loomed over the team until the day Russell Wilson was traded. The 2016 Falcons, who blew a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI, are still trying to chart a new course.

Do the Chargers believe that Saturday night’s loss will, or won’t, linger? History tells us that it will. And, if it does, 2023 could be Staley’s last season on the job, swinging the door open for someone like Jim Harbaugh or whoever else is at the top of the “A” list in 2024.

CLEVELAND

Jim Schwartz is back.  He’s the new Browns DC, beating out a field that included litigious Brian Flores.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Jim Schwartz is the new defensive coordinator of the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns finalized the hiring of Schwartz this morning, according to multiple reports.

Cleveland began its defensive coordinator search a week ago after firing Joe Woods. In addition to Schwartz, the candidates were Steelers linebackers coach Brian Flores, Seahawks associate head coach Sean Desai and Eagles defensive pass game coordinator/defensive backs coach Dennard Wilson. Patriots linebackers coach Jerod Mayo declined a chance to interview.

The 56-year-old Schwartz is best known for his five-year stint as head coach of the Lions from 2009 to 2013. He has also been defensive coordinator of the Eagles, Bills and Titans. His first NFL job was in Cleveland as a personnel scout in the 1990s. He was more recently an assistant on the Titans’ staff.

JACKSONVILLE

Hats off to whoever thought this one up:

@NFLonFOX

Trevor Lawrence has never lost on a Saturday in high school, college or in the NFL

That undefeated record will be on the line in Kansas City against Patrick Mahomes who lost quite a few games on Saturday at Texas Tech.

James Brinsford of Newsweek adds this on the legend of Lawrence:

After Trevor Lawrence orchestrated one of the biggest-ever NFL playoff comebacks, with the Jacksonville Jaguars overcoming a 27-point deficit against the Los Angeles Chargers, there seemed to be one thing on the quarterback’s mind: going for waffles.

Only the Buffalo Bills’ 32-point comeback against the Houston Oilers in 1993 and the Indianapolis Colts rallying from 28 points behind the Kansas City Chiefs in 2014 have bettered the Jags’ post-season efforts on Saturday night.

Incredibly, the 31-30 win kept intact Lawrence’s record of never losing on a Saturday, a run that has stretched back through college and high school. So, after securing a divisional playoff game at the Kansas City Chiefs, Lawrence looked to celebrate in style.

Fans were loving the down-to-earth celebratory snacks, with one writing on Twitter that Lawrence is “The People’s Champ.”

Another tweeted: “This is the most relatable thing a NFL QB has done since the merger of the NFL/AFL,” while a third wrote: “Anyone who celebrates a victory at Waffle House is okay in my book.”

A fourth fan pointed out that Lawrence was always going to celebrate this way, tweeting: “Born in TN, raised in Georgia, went to school in rural SC, works in Northern FL… the kid has Waffle House in his DNA.”

A spokesperson for Waffle House said they were happy to have Lawrence at their restaurant and told Newsweek: “To Trevor and the Jaguars, congratulations on that amazing comeback win! And, thank you for stopping by our House to share a little ‘DUUUVAL’ magic with us. Good luck next week!”

When it came to dragging the Jags back into the game after a dismal first half in which Lawrence threw four interceptions, the quarterback admitted: “I didn’t have a choice.”

He added: “These guys have sacrificed way too much for me to be the reason we lose an opportunity.”

THIS AND THAT

HOT COACHES

Last year, Buccaneers OC Byron Leftwich was on this list, as a sign of how the times can change.  Joe Banner of The 33^rd Team:

If you’re not one of 14 teams in the playoffs, this is the time of year you might be looking for your next head coach. As a matter of fact, five franchises are, with familiar names mentioned as candidates.

Sean Payton. Jim Harbaugh. Dan Quinn. Frank Reich.

All have been NFL head coaches, with varying degrees of success. So you know them. But what about those candidates who haven’t run NFL teams – young assistants whom you’re starting to hear about but whose names you don’t recognize?

I personally know several I’d consider hiring, and I want to introduce them to you. But before I do, let me tell you what qualities I’m looking for in my next head coach:

Leadership. I think it speaks for itself. You either have it or you don’t.

The ability to hire and manage quality assistants. People underestimate how important it is to oversee your staff, both philosophically and as a manager of individuals.

A strong conviction in a clear philosophy. I don’t think you can lead people unless you can tell them where you’re trying to take them. So I’m not picking the philosophy. It could be someone who wants to run the ball or pass the ball, I don’t care. What I want is for that person to have a strong conviction, because it’s hard to be a leader if you don’t.

Attention to detail. A lot of coaches who are successful are obsessed with every detail. Before we interviewed Andy Reid in Philadelphia, for instance, people told us, “He’s so focused on every little detail, he drives everyone crazy.” Some looked at that as a criticism. I didn’t. I thought it was perfect. Attention to detail means you are organized, prepared, and you know how to relay to players what’s expected of them.

Who checks those boxes? Here are six assistants who should get calls … and will:

Shane Steichen, OC, Philadelphia

He was the quality-control coach in Cleveland the year I was there (2013), which was the beginning of his NFL education. So I got to know him. What I saw was a young man who was smart, a hard worker and easy to work with. Did I see a head-coach-in-the-making? I can’t say yes or no. But I did see the potential of one.

Now, after watching what he’s done with the Eagles and talking to people within the organization, I’ve become more optimistic that the young man I first saw in Cleveland has evolved in terms of leadership skills and confidence. I have a high opinion of him, as I did before, but that feeling has only expanded as I’ve seen him do more and more in Philadelphia.

You may not know much about him, but I firmly believe he’s right to get the interviews and calls he’s been receiving. Furthermore, I also believe he should go into those interviews with people having high expectations of the candidate they’re about to meet. If he can persuade someone to hire him, it wouldn’t surprise me at all.

About Shane Steichen

Years as OC: 3

Record as OC: 30-20

Eagles’ average offensive rank (yards) under Steichen: 14th

2022 Offense DVOA ranking: 3rd

Jonathan Gannon, DC, Philadelphia

I know Gannon from my relationships at the Colts, where he was once considered as a coordinator, to his work with the Eagles now. For me, what’s been most impressive about him is that, in a league where so few people change as they get more experience, he’s something of an anomaly. Watching what he’s done with the defense from last year to this season – and where he learned from his mistakes – is all the proof I need.

He’s become more aggressive, mixing in attacking schemes. Now, understand: That can mean he lines up six guys on the line of scrimmage and only rushes four. But at least he’s making the quarterback worry about what he’s doing, and the results speak for themselves: The Eagles led the league with 70 sacks this season, two short of the NFL record. He’s also shifting from zone to man-to-man more, making it hard to predict what happens next. So I see real growth.

He didn’t come to Philadelphia as someone totally consumed by analytics, but he’s had an open mind about it and it’s had an impact on how he thinks. When you have someone who is smart, a great leader and open-minded, you’ve checked really important boxes.

About Jonathan Gannon

Years as DC: 2

Record as DC: 23-11

Eagles’ average defensive rank (yards) under Gannon: 6th

2022 Defense DVOA ranking: 6th

Aaron Glenn, DC, Detroit

Full disclosure: As defensive coordinator of the Lions, he’s not one of those guys whom you look at and say, “Wow! Look how much the defense did the minute he took over.” That hasn’t happened. Detroit this season ranked last in total defense and allowed more points (427) than Chicago and Arizona.

But if you go down the list of what you’re looking for in a head coach – leadership, building relationships, hiring the right people, managing them well and motivating players – he’s strong in all those areas. He has all the qualities the best coaches in this league have, which means he’s someone owners and GMs absolutely should be talking to.

I’m close to some of the people in Detroit, and I’ve met Aaron. There is a presence about him. When he walks into the room, you feel it. I had that same sensation about Reid when he came to Philadelphia. That doesn’t mean I’m comparing Aaron to Andy, because I’m not. But Aaron is somebody who seems bigger than he actually is just by his mere presence, and I feel that when I’m around him.

If you’re compiling a list of candidates who match up with the league’s most successful coaches, Aaron Glenn deserves to be on it.

About Aaron Glenn

Years as DC: 2

Record as DC: 12-21-1

Lions’ average defense rank (yards) under Glenn: 31st

2022 Defense DVOA ranking: 28^th

DeMeco Ryans, DC, San Francisco

He once played for the Eagles (2012-15), so I got to know him there. And what I know is this: I would be excited at the chance of sitting down to interview him. A smart and good person, he’s a leader with a dynamic presence that’s off the charts.

The 49ers have the league’s top-rated defense. Granted, their talent level is good, but Ryans is making them better. If he were a head coach and didn’t do well, I’d be shocked. The only question I’d have about him is if he would hire the right coordinators. Everything else is the very best you could have in a candidate.

Ryans is one of those guys who doesn’t do what he learned from the first person who taught him. Instead, he’s evolved into a coach whose philosophy and schemes are combinations of different things he’s learned along the way – and that’s something you don’t see often enough. In essence, he’s adaptable. Most coaches do what they originally learned and stick with it. But there’s a small number who evolve, with more complex schemes than they first learned, and DeMeco is one of them.

One other thing: He was coached by Reid and worked under Kyle Shanahan. So he’s been to places that have prepared him to be a head coach. Of all the people on this list, Ryans is the one I’m most confident would succeed.

About DeMeco Ryans

Years as DC: 2

Record as DC: 23-11

49ers’ average defense rank (yards) under Ryans: 2nd

2022 Defense DVOA ranking: 1st

Mike Kafka, OC, N.Y. Giants

I know Mike from when he was a quarterback for three years in Philadelphia (2010-12). In fact, I know him well enough that I have strong opinions about him. People who don’t might wonder if he’s one or two years too soon to be going through interviews, but he’s not.

Most head coaches aren’t successful in Year 1. They’re more often successful in Year 2. So if I found a guy I thought was promising but would take a year or two to make it, it wouldn’t scare me. Mike is smart, and he’s a leader.

Plus, when he was with Andy in Kansas City (as Chiefs QB coach for Patrick Mahomes from 2018-2021), he learned not only what that scheme is and what makes it work, but he was in a system that breeds successful head coaches. He’s seen how Andy does things and how that translated into success for some of those assistants with him in Philadelphia – guys like Doug Pederson, Jon Gruden, John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott.

So with Mike, you get Andy’s coaching and team-building philosophies, plus Mike’s experience with the Giants where he’s really in charge of that offense. No question, Brian Daboll deserves all the credit for what’s going on there, but Mike is the offensive coordinator – and what they’ve achieved with the talent there is incredible.

About Mike Kafka

Years as OC: 1

Record as OC: 9-7-1

Giants’ average offense rank (yards) under Kafka: 18th

2022 Offense DVOA ranking: 10th

Kellen Moore, OC, Dallas

The offensive philosophy in Dallas is run-based, and it drives the Cowboys’ team-building, as well as the owner and head coach’s conviction about play-calling. But I believe that conviction holds Kellen back a bit.

He’s innovative, open-minded and creative, but there’s only so much you can do within the parameters of that philosophy. I think he’s a good leader who must prove he can be a great leader. But he’s also someone who works well with the front office to create a collaborative and constructive team, and that’s a positive.

I know Kellen well, and if you’re putting together a list of people who have the intangibles you most desire in your next head coach, he should be on it. He’s positive. He’s transparent. And he truly cares about his players. He has all those qualities in a compelling way, which means you can rely on his team to play hard.

About Kellen Moore

Years as OC: 4

Record as OC: 38-28

Cowboys’ average offense rank (yards) under Moore: 7th

2022 Offense DVOA ranking: 15th

Joe Banner is a former front office executive for the Philadelphia Eagles and Cleveland Browns. He was a part of an Eagles franchise that made a Super Bowl and played in four NFC Championship Games. Follow him on Twitter at @JoeBanner13.

We would have Denver DC Ejiro Evero on this list.  And Lions OC Ben Johnson who may be on his way to landing the Panthers job.

Not sure about Aaron Glenn.

THE DAMN SPOT

In the big picture of Bills-Dolphins, the first down that was awarded to Buffalo late in the game was probably not that big a deal.  If the first down had not been granted, the Bills probably get the first down and run out the clock.  And even if they didn’t, the Dolphins would have only had a few seconds to get into position for a tying field goal.  That said, we don’t understand what the officials did here.

Before we get long-winded, Tim Kawakami of The Athletic tweeted the short version in real time:

@timkawakami

How did they rule it was a first down? That is unbelievable from the initial spot. Just ridiculous. Maybe they measure it out and somehow it’s a first, but can’t just signal it.

Now to the long version –

You can see from the CBS telecast that on first down, the ball was placed almost directly in between the 44 and 43 yard lines, with the tip at about 43 yards, 1 foot from the goal line.

To get a first down, the tip would have to be spotted inside 33 yards and 1 foot from the goal line.

On Devin Sanders third down run, the side judge Mark Perlman can be seen coming into make the spot.  He appears to have a good bead on the spot forward progress was eventually stopped.  It looks like he is about 34 yards from the goal line, two feet short.  He raises his hand in the fourth down fist.

In what we would have expected from a serious spot, the ball would have been placed on the ground in the spot Perlman memorialized.  Perhaps on the 34, perhaps more towards the 33.  And the chains would have been brought out for a measurement.

But we never found out what Perlman’s spot was. There was no measurement. The ball instead went to umpire Terry Killens, Jr. who is seen bringing the ball towards the hash marks as CBS goes into a long series of replays that start with the presumption of fourth down, before a sudden change in posture as Jim Nantz reveals that someone, presumably referee Brad Allen, has awarded a first down.   Then a long series of shots showing replays, promos, Allen squinting at a monitor, Mike McDaniel looking puzzled, Sean McDermott chatting with down judge Sarah Thomas, Allen announcing that it is indeed first down.

But we never see where the ball is spotted until the Bills are coming up to make the final snap.  And then we see the ball, somewhere between the 34 and 33, spotted right near the previous line to gain, maybe even a little short.

Where was the measurement?  That is the issue.  It wasn’t that the on-field officials’ spot was bad (from what we could see).  It’s that said spot was very close to the first down line, too close to have the first down awarded without using the chains for the admittedly unscientific measurement.

We see that all too often in the NFL, where first downs are awarded on close plays, without the validation of a measurement.

2023 DRAFT

Mike Renner of ProFootballFocus on the conundrum presented by QB WILL LEVIS – a first round prospect who couldn’t start at Penn State.

If there’s anything certain in the NFL’s evaluation of quarterbacks in recent years, it’s that most are going to get it wrong. Of the 12 quarterbacks selected in the top three of an NFL draft over the past decade, only four are locks to be starters in Week 1 next season.

Evaluating quarterbacks properly is simultaneously the most important thing in the sport and the most difficult.

Maybe it’s because of the nature of the position; no one thing guarantees success at the next level. Bill Parcells’ checklist of must-haves when evaluating a quarterback prospect is one of the most widespread sets of guidelines in the scouting world. But reading it now in the modern era? It’s almost comical.

Be a three-year starter

Be a senior in college

Graduate from college

Start 30 games

Win 23 games

Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio

Complete at least 60% of passes thrown

Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson all would have failed to go 7-for-7 and, in turn, been passed up by the Big Tuna.

So then what about those evaluating quarterbacks currently? Surely, there must be something that unites NFL personnel in a “must-have” on the path to success. Err … not quite. For Bill Belichick, it’s “make good decisions.” Former Pittsburgh Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert is on the record saying “accuracy.” Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers says quarterback prospects “have to be able to spin it,” referencing their arm strength.

It should be no surprise that properly assessing a complex position is, well, complex. But ultimately, the process of quarterback evaluation is no different than any other position. It comes down to how accurately you can answer the following questions:

Who are they?

What can they become?

What are their chances of getting there?

There’s no quarterback who will stress test scouts’ ability to answer those questions more at the quarterback position in the 2023 class than Kentucky’s Will Levis — the No. 2 signal-caller on PFF’s big board and the No. 3 prospect overall. He’s a 6-foot-3, 232-pound redshirt senior with a rocket launcher attached to his right shoulder. The Wildcats’ pro day isn’t until later this spring, but I can already, without a shred of doubt, say he’ll receive hype from every media outlet afterward for his performance. I mean, just look at these throws: (video not attached here)

And how well he can move at his size: (video not attached here)

His pros and cons list below doesn’t read too dissimilarly to that of Josh Allen coming out of Wyoming:

Pros

Flamethrower right arm

Ideal build that can take a hit

Twitchy mover in pocket

Will stand in and deliver strikes under pressure (9.2 yards per attempt under pressure in 2022)

Elite QB-sneaker. Converted 22-of-23 sneaks in career

Cons

Spotty accuracy

One-speed thrower

Will likely always struggle on touch passes with short-arm delivery

Bad habit of trying to do too much and forces throws

Unfortunately, that reads like a lot of athletic projects at the quarterback position in the draft. And for every Josh Allen, there’s a Jake Locker at home watching games on Sundays. It’s why the NFL still prefers those with high-end on-field production toward the top of the draft.

That’s where Levis falls considerably short (as everyone on Twitter will remind you when his name is brought up). There’s no sugarcoating it: Levis was difficult to watch at times in 2022. His stats against Power Five opponents can be seen below:

PFF Passing Grade       61.2

Yards per Game            179.4

Comp %                          62.2%

TDs                                 10

INTs                                  7

Big-Time Throws              5

Turnover-Worthy Plays     7

There’s nary a data point or advanced stat in the PFF database that can make the above palatable. There are only excuses for why it was the case. He was under pressure on 37.8% of his dropbacks (FBS average: 31.4% | NFL average: 33.6%). He threw a tight-window pass on 46.4% of his attempts targeted 10-plus yards downfield (FBS average: 39.2% | NFL average: 39.7%). While that speaks to just how difficult Levis’ job description was for the Wildcats this past fall, it says nothing about how he’ll fare when his supporting cast improves.

Luckily, we got a glimpse of just that in 2021. When he had a receiver who could get open at an NFL level (Wan’Dale Robinson) and a coordinator who could coordinate at an NFL level (Liam Coen), Levis earned a 90.6 overall grade. His tape against the behemoth Georgia defense that season was as good as anyone not named Bryce Young looked against them all season long.

He finished with an 83.3 overall grade in that game and made a grand total of zero turnover-worthy plays. While it was itself tremendous tape for evaluators, if that was the guy we saw every week, I wouldn’t even be writing this article. Levis would already be a shoo-in to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. And therein lies the most difficult of the three questions to answer in scouting. We’re all just trying to answer the question of how likely it is that a player reaches their maximum capabilities on a consistent basis. Because Levis has proven that his capabilities are sky-high, but he’s shown them so infrequently that a road to consistency seems arduous to attain.

When you have to be the last one standing in a 32-team league chock-full of physical freaks at the quarterback position, however, it’s the quarterbacks with the high-end maximum capabilities who can get you to a Lombardi Trophy. That’s why Will Levis is still very worthy of — and in my opinion, will be — a top-five draft pick come April 27.

And how about a Mock Draft from Dane Brugler of The Athletic:

The underclassman deadline has come and gone, so we now know the official pool of players available for the 2023 NFL Draft. We also have the official draft order for the first 23 selections. Picks 24 through 31 will come into focus throughout the playoffs (remember, the Dolphins forfeited their first-rounder, so there will be only 31 picks in Round 1 this year).

Normally, I hate projecting trades this early in the process, but the overwhelming odds say the Bears will trade out of the No. 1 spot. I’ve also added two more first-round trades as teams look to jump up for quarterbacks.

Mock 2.0:

Round 1

1. Indianapolis Colts (via Chicago): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

Projected trade: No. 1 for Nos. 4, 35 and a 2024 first-round pick

This trade makes sense for both sides. The Colts have a clear need at quarterback, with an owner and general manager who are motivated to get it right. Colts GM Chris Ballard, who was previously a scout in Chicago, is very familiar with Bears GM Ryan Poles — the two worked together for four years in the Chiefs’ front office. This would mark the third time over the last 25 years that the Colts held the No. 1 pick. It worked out well the other two times: Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck.

Bryce Young is a complete outlier from a size perspective and would be somewhat off-type for Ballard, but Young’s instincts, vision and accuracy as a passer are the traits worth betting on at the position. It won’t be a driving reason behind a trade up, but sniping Young ahead of division foe Houston would be an added benefit.

2. Houston Texans: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Obviously, this selection will be heavily influenced by the Texans’ new hire at head coach. It wouldn’t be a surprise, however, if Houston’s key decision-makers wind up with Will Levis atop their draft board. The Kentucky passer is built for the NFL game and checks numerous boxes with his size, mobility, arm strength, intelligence and competitive toughness.

Levis didn’t have the senior season many expected, with a new play caller and a subpar supporting cast compared to the previous year. Some evaluators will say those are excuses; others see it more as an explanation. Regardless, the traits — both physical and mental — are impressive and will lead several NFL teams to believe he is QB1 in this class.

3. Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama

Since Kyler Murray isn’t going anywhere, Arizona’s new general manager and head coach will be hoping that quarterbacks come off the board with the first two selections, which would give the Cardinals the opportunity to draft the top non-QB.

An outstanding pass rusher and run defender, Will Anderson Jr., has a bendy, flexible frame with explosiveness in his upper half to attack from different positions. His junior season (10 sacks, 17 tackles for loss, one interception) didn’t quite live up to his remarkable sophomore year (17.5 sacks, 31 tackles for loss), but he still ranked top five in the nation in quarterback pressures. J.J. Watt’s retirement means that the Cardinals are losing one of the best pass rushers in NFL history, but adding Anderson would give the franchise a new defensive cornerstone for the future.

4. Chicago Bears (via Indianapolis): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

For the next few months, Bears fans will be debating between Anderson and Jalen Carter. In this scenario, the decision is made for them. Carter is young, which is evident in several areas of his game, but it is also clear how uniquely talented he is with his combination of body control and power. His block destruction and disruption are special.

For Bears fans screaming that the return in this trade scenario (this pick, No. 35 and a future first) isn’t enough, there would be added value in trading back with the Colts, as opposed to the Raiders (No. 7 overall), Panthers (No. 9 overall) or another team. The opportunity to stay within striking distance of the two “elite” defensive prospects in this draft should give the Colts a hypothetical advantage if the Bears have multiple offers to consider.

5. Carolina Panthers (via Seattle): C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Projected trade: No. 5 for Nos. 9, 93 and a 2024 first-round pick

Two years ago, the Panthers decided to pass on an Ohio State quarterback (Justin Fields). In this draft, they might be trading up for a different Buckeye. Regardless of Carolina’s head coach hire, we know ownership will heavily influence what the team does with this top-10 pick, and it is fair to assume David Tepper is tired of the quarterback carousel of veteran washouts.

With his accuracy and ability to read the field, C.J. Stroud can carve up defenses if given time to operate from the pocket. Although it came in a playoff-semifinal loss to Georgia, Stroud had a career performance in his final college game (348 yards passing, four touchdowns). On that tape, Stroud showed an improved comfort level when he was required to create outside of structure, which will only help him throughout the draft process.

6. Detroit Lions (via L.A. Rams): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

After Anderson and Carter, there is a clear drop-off to the next tier of non-quarterback prospects in this class.

Christian Gonzalez flashed enough at Colorado to earn the No. 9 spot on my summer top-50 board, and he lived up to that hype in his one season at Oregon. With his speed/length athletic profile and the Lions’ need at cornerback, Gonzalez (the brother-in-law of former Lions’ backup quarterback David Blough) should be on Detroit’s short list for its first of two Round 1 picks.

7. Las Vegas Raiders: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

With Derek Carr on his way out the door, we know the Raiders will be doing their homework on this quarterback class. They might not be in a position to get their top-ranked guy, though.

The Raiders got better-than-expected play this season from right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor, but he is a free agent, and investing in the offensive line is never a bad way to go. Paris Johnson Jr. is a fluid big man with length and power and the gifts to recover when he misfires his punch.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Peter Skoronski, OT/G, Northwestern

Originally, I had the Falcons keeping Georgia left tackle Broderick Jones in his home state with this pick, but Peter Skoronski would give Atlanta a little more flexibility on the offensive line. While his lack of length is a legitimate concern, Skoronski has outstanding tape due to his feet, technique and processing. Scouts believe he has five-position versatility, which would allow the Falcons to move him around and get their five best blockers on the field.

9. Seattle Seahawks (via Carolina): Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech

If you watched the Seahawks wilt in the second half of their wild-card matchup against the 49ers, you know that their defense needs help. At 6-foot-6 and 270 pounds with almost 36-inch arms, Tyree Wilson is a big, powerful athlete who can be disruptive from various alignments along the defensive line.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans): Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

With James Bradberry likely to get paid elsewhere this offseason, the Eagles will be looking to address the cornerback position. Joey Porter Jr., the son of a former Pro Bowler, is a long and physical (sometimes, too physical) athlete with the cover skills that might land him in the top 10.

11. Tennessee Titans: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

Depending on what the Titans do in free agency, this could be a very offensive line-focused draft. Nine years ago, the franchise used the No. 11 pick on a promising left tackle named Taylor Lewan, who became a Pro Bowler. With Lewan looming as a potential offseason cut, history could repeat itself here and land Jones in Tennessee.

12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland): Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson

The Texans drafted their quarterback earlier and now they address the defensive line. After his Freshman All-America season in 2020, Bryan Bresee totaled just 27 tackles over the past two years as he battled injuries and personal tragedy. But, as long as the medicals check out, he is an explosive player worthy of a spot in the top half of Round 1.

13. New York Jets: Brian Branch, S, Alabama

One of the best defensive players in the draft, Brian Branch was the linchpin of Nick Saban’s defense in Tuscaloosa, and his versatility as a nickel or safety will translate well to the pro game. Although he doesn’t have ideal size, Branch is outstanding in coverage and a strong tackler.

14. New England Patriots: Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson

Smooth, strong and long, Myles Murphy has a lot of the traits that would appeal to Bill Belichick. Given his expected testing numbers at the scouting combine, Murphy will create buzz throughout the process, even though his rush plan and setup are still in the development phase.

15. Detroit Lions (via Green Bay): Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

Projected trade: No. 15 for Nos. 18 and 48

In last year’s first round, the Lions made a major trade with a division foe to move up for a high-upside offensive star (Jameson Williams). They could do it again this year and invest in their future at the quarterback position.

Thanks to his size, athleticism and arm, Anthony Richardson is a total freak show with a high ceiling, but he’s still figuring out how to be a consistent passer. Jared Goff’s presence would let Detroit develop Richardson at his own pace.

16. Washington Commanders: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina

The Commanders’ cornerback play was frustratingly inconsistent this season, so there should be changes coming. Although he’s not quite on the same level as his former college teammate, Jaycee Horn, Cam Smith is stylistically similar with his length, light-footed movements and aggressive approach.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is going to love Devon Witherspoon. No, Witherspoon doesn’t have ideal size (under 6-0 and 185 pounds), but the Pensacola, Fla., native plays with the fiery demeanor and physicality of a much bigger player. His mentality plus his controlled movements and coverage anticipation will make him an NFL starter from day one.

18. Green Bay Packers (via Detroit): Lukas Van Ness, DL, Iowa

This feels like a very Packers pick, right? Lukas Van Ness was not even a starter for the Hawkeyes and might not have the most impressive collegiate resume. With his explosive power and upside, though, the Iowa product has the toolsy profile that Green Bay covets on the defensive line.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas

With Lavonte David’s future in Tampa Bay uncertain, the Buccaneers might need to replace one of the best defensive players in franchise history. A former five-star recruit at Alabama, Drew Sanders is coming off a breakout season (103 tackles and 9.5 sacks) and boasts the athletic range and instincts that could make him the first linebacker drafted.

20. Seattle Seahawks: Jordan Addison, WR, USC

If the Seahawks invest in Geno Smith for the short term, surrounding him with more talent would be an understandable strategy. The first receiver drafted here, Jordan Addison has inconsistent play strength, but he is a twitchy athlete with the crafty routes and play speed to work all three levels of the field.

21. Los Angeles Chargers: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

The Chargers need to make changes this offseason, and it will be interesting to see what buttons they push. Something the organization should be trying to do every year is upgrade on offense around their talented quarterback, Justin Herbert. Michael Mayer is a physical blocker and will be one of the best contested-catch tight ends in the NFL the moment he is drafted.

22. Baltimore Ravens: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia

This pick is reminiscent of when the Ravens drafted Marlon Humphrey in the mid-first round in 2017. Like Humphrey, Kelee Ringo has above-average size, speed and the compete skills to immediately match up with NFL receivers. But his route anticipation and awareness are still immature, which is why not all NFL teams view him as a first-round lock.

23. Minnesota Vikings: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

Between now and the draft, I’m sure we will hear plenty of quarterback talk surrounding the Vikings. But they also need help on defense, obviously, including in the secondary. A cover-and-clobber corner, Deonte Banks has rangy speed and ball skills. Several NFL teams have second-round grades on the Maryland corner, but others believe he can crack the first round.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia

Back in the 2006 NFL Draft, the Jaguars drafted a big combo tight end late in the first round: Marcedes Lewis, who’d go on to be a Pro Bowler in Jacksonville. Darnell Washington is even bigger than Lewis and has better upside as both a pass catcher and blocker. His unique skill set will mean he’s valued differently by every offense, but it would be fun to see how he could blossom within the Jaguars’ offensive ecosystem.

25. New York Giants: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

The Giants have gotten better-than-expected play from wide receivers like Isaiah Hodgins this season, but the position remains an area of need. Quentin Johnston is an intriguing evaluation because he has outstanding physical traits, like size (6-4, 215), speed (4.4 40-yard dash) and springs in his legs. He also tracks the ball naturally, although he will have focus drops and his route running is a work in progress. Johnston has the talent to warrant top-20 consideration, but he isn’t a lock to go that high.

26. Dallas Cowboys: Siaki Ika, NT, Baylor

History tells us this won’t be the pick — the Cowboys haven’t drafted a defensive tackle in the top 50 since Russell Maryland at No. 1 in 1991. However, the Cowboys are committed to upgrading their defense and Ika would give them a boulder in the middle of the line. At 355 pounds, Ika is a hard guy to move at the point of attack, but he also has the short-area quickness to be disruptive.

27. Cincinnati Bengals: Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State

The third tight end off the board in this mock, Luke Musgrave would be much more well-known had he not missed most of his senior year with an injury. At 6-foot-6, 250 pounds with 4.5 speed, he is an impressive athlete for the position and has strength and body fluidity as both a blocker and receiver. Adding a weapon like this to the Bengals offense would create fireworks.

28. Denver Broncos (via San Francisco): O’Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida

How many returning starters will the Broncos have on their offensive line next season? Changes are coming. O’Cyrus Torrence is a large, physical guard with vice grips for hands and the drive power to create movement in the run game. He could be a starter in Denver from day one.

29. Buffalo Bills: Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M

Whether you ask him to play free, strong or nickel safety, Antonio Johnson has the talent to fill any of those roles at a high level. He competes with a physical nature to defeat blocks and make plays near the line of scrimmage, but he also offers the range and balance to cover in space.

30. Kansas City Chiefs: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

With the MVP of the league at quarterback, the Chiefs might not feel compelled to use first-round capital on a wide receiver. If the “right” pass catcher is there, though, it might change their thinking. Even though he isn’t the top-10 pick some seem to think, Jaxon Smith-Njigba already runs routes like a pro and has the ball skills that will translate well to the NFL game.

31. Philadelphia Eagles: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

The last time the Eagles drafted a running back in the first round, Ron Jaworski was Philadelphia’s starting quarterback. But Bijan Robinson is one of the best talents in this draft class and would be a bargain with the final pick of Round 1. The Texas running back has no business falling this far. There just aren’t too many clear landing spots within the top 30 picks.

Round 2

32. Pittsburgh Steelers (via Chicago): Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson

Giving up Chase Claypool for an ultra-athletic linebacker like Trenton Simpson? I think the Steelers would be happy with that outcome.

33. Houston Texans: Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina

34. Arizona Cardinals: Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah

35. Chicago Bears (via Indianapolis): BJ Ojulari, Edge, LSU

36. Los Angeles Rams: Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia

37. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver): Gervon Dexter Sr., DT, Florida

38. Las Vegas Raiders: Zach Harrison, Edge, Ohio State

39. Carolina Panthers: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama

Carolina general manager Scott Fitterer said the Panthers will hunt “explosive-type” players in the draft and Gibbs is exactly that, both as a runner and receiver.

40. New Orleans Saints: Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State

41. Tennessee Titans: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee

42. Cleveland Browns: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan

Would Mazi Smith be the best defensive tackle on the Browns roster the moment he’s drafted? It’s no mystery that is a position of need for Cleveland.

43. New York Jets: Cody Mauch, OL, North Dakota State

44. Atlanta Falcons: Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati

45. Green Bay Packers: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

46. New England Patriots: Rashee Rice, WR, SMU

47. Washington Commanders: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

48. Green Bay Packers (via Detroit): A.T. Perry, WR, Wake Forest

49. Pittsburgh Steelers: Matthew Bergeron, OT/G, Syracuse

50. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kyu Blu Kelly, CB, Stanford

Tampa Bay drafted Brian Kelly at No. 45 in 1998, and he helped the franchise win a Super Bowl. The Bucs could try to repeat history 25 years later with Kelly’s son, Kyu Blu.

51. Miami Dolphins: Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M

52. Seattle Seahawks: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State

53. Chicago Bears (via Baltimore): Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee

54. Los Angeles Chargers: Jaelyn Duncan, OT/G, Maryland

55. Detroit Lions (via Minnesota): Isaiah Foskey, Edge, Notre Dame

56. Jacksonville Jaguars: Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin

57. New York Giants: Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa

58. Dallas Cowboys: DJ Turner, CB, Michigan

Neither of Dallas’ Day 2 cornerbacks from the 2021 draft (Kelvin Joseph, Nahshon Wright) have been dependable. It is time to reinvest in the position.

59. Cincinnati Bengals: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State

60. Carolina Panthers (via San Francisco): Keion White, DL, Georgia Tech

61. Buffalo Bills: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

62. Kansas City Chiefs: Mike Morris, Edge, Michigan

63. Philadelphia Eagles: Derick Hall, Edge, Auburn

With three picks in the first two rounds, Eagles GM Howie Roseman is going to draft at least one pass rusher, right? Here, Derick Hall goes from War Eagle to Philadelphia Eagle.