@dannykanell

Wow. Both undefeated teams win. It’s almost like running the table in a power 5 conference means something!!!

But this from @NOTSportsCenter

@NOTSportsCenter

BREAKING: The #CFBPlayoff committee has advanced Alabama to the national championship game over Michigan

“It was a tough decision for all of us, but Alabama now has 2 quality losses. Michigan can’t say that. We think this will prove to be the right call.”

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

Whatever decision the Bears make, we would say it is a tough one – QB JUSTIN FIELDS and a high contract, but a ton of draft capital on low contracts or a shiny QB CALEB WILLIAMS on a rookie deal and a ton of cash saved.

Jeremy Fowler and Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com:

Three seasons and 37 starts into his NFL career, Fields’ version of the Bears has at times appeared tantalizingly close to a breakthrough. The No. 11 pick in the 2021 draft has displayed physical gifts, command of an offense and clear leadership qualities — but on a sporadic basis. He has endured head coach and coordinator changes amid a roster teardown and an attempted rebuild, while working alongside an offensive supporting cast that has done him few favors.

The Bears have made strides with Fields at quarterback, but as the 2023 season draws to a close Sunday against the Green Bay Packers, Chicago’s brain trust must determine whether the 24-year-old still represents the future, and the decision is complicated.

Two of the men positioned to make the call on Fields, second-year general manager Ryan Poles and coach Matt Eberflus, are not guaranteed to be back in 2024. Poles, who has worked well with his boss, first-year team president Kevin Warren, per sources, appears poised to return. Eberflus’ future is a little more uncertain after a second straight losing season, though the Bears’ 7-5 record over the past 12 games bolsters his case. The presence of the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft, acquired by the Bears in a March trade with the Carolina Panthers, looms over all the key figures.

While Fields has good relationships with Poles, Eberflus and all of Chicago’s decision-makers, the top pick offers the possibility that USC quarterback Caleb Williams, North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye or someone else could be a better long-term answer for a franchise that has not known true quarterback stability since Sid Luckman helped revolutionize the passing game in the 1940s. But Chicago’s embattled leaders, should Poles and Eberflus return, also need to win in 2024. Are they prepared to hitch their wagon to a rookie, even a supremely talented one?

The choice between Fields and the unknown could shape the organization for the next decade or more.

IN THE VICTORIOUS visitors locker room at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on Nov. 27, Eberflus wrapped his quarterback in an embrace. Moments later, Poles followed suit, with the general manager and former Boston College offensive lineman lifting the 230-pound Fields off the ground in celebration.

Fields had made the critical play in the final minute against the Vikings, a 36-yard completion to wide receiver DJ Moore on third-and-10 to set up a game-winning field goal in a 12-10 victory on “Monday Night Football.”

The quarterback’s play up until that point had not been sensational — Chicago did not score a touchdown in the game and Fields lost two fumbles in the fourth quarter. But it was the winning-time moment that provided a sense of vindication for Eberflus and Poles, who have not publicly wavered in their support of Fields despite his 8-19 record as a starter over the past two seasons. The Bears’ locker room has appeared unified behind Fields, too.

Said Moore, the closest thing to a No. 1 receiver Fields has had during his three seasons in Chicago: “He came back like a true leader does — somebody on the rise as a young quarterback. They just block that out and make that throw.”

Since returning Nov. 19 from a four-game absence with a thumb injury, Fields’ interception and sack numbers are down. Coaches have lauded his improved pocket presence, including his movement, footwork and willingness to throw the ball downfield instead of taking off and running when the pocket breaks down. Perhaps what has stood out most in that stretch has been Fields’ ability to close out wins. Fields played well in divisional victories over Minnesota and Detroit, and was also consistent in wins over Arizona and Atlanta that continued the Bears’ late-season momentum.

Before Fields came back from his thumb injury, Eberflus gave him a simple directive.

“He gave me a thing that said, ‘200,’ which is two touchdowns, no sacks, no turnovers,” Fields said. “That’s pretty much my goal every game. Sacks, they put us behind the sticks of course, and you never want to turn the ball over to give the other team a short field. So definitely trying to avoid the turnovers and sacks.”

Though the progress is undeniable, it’s when you zoom out and take in the totality of Fields’ three-year career that the picture becomes fuzzier and complicates the organization’s long-term evaluation.

Through Sunday’s games, Fields ranks last in the NFL this season among 31 qualified quarterbacks in fourth-quarter completion percentage (51.8%), is 25th in yards per attempt (5.9), tied for 29th in fourth-quarter interceptions (6) and 30th in QBR (20.4), per ESPN Stats & Information research.

Since joining the league in 2021, Fields is last among 38 qualified quarterbacks in fourth-quarter interceptions (16), 36th in completion percentage (56.2%) and 33rd in QBR (41.4). Conversely, his touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4.3 in the first three quarters this season is the NFL’s fourth best among 31 qualified quarterbacks.

When evaluators around the league watch Fields, they can’t help but notice what holds him back — mainly, a tendency to hold on to the ball too long from the pocket, failing to see routes develop. He’s last in the league among 31 qualified quarterbacks in average time per pass (3.23 seconds) in 2023, and last among 38 qualified quarterbacks in that metric since entering the league (3.10 seconds). In 37 career starts, Fields has surpassed 225 passing yards six times. Eighteen NFL starters average at least 230 yards per game this season.

“I just think we know what [Fields] is at this point — a great athlete and playmaker who misses some throws he shouldn’t or doesn’t always take the throws available to him,” one NFC executive told ESPN. “You can win some games with him, and he’s got some elements to his game that are really impressive, but it’s not sustainable long-term from a pocket-passing standpoint, in my opinion.”

While some evaluators might hold that belief, Fields’ teammates do not.

“No one in here thinks Justin’s not a top quarterback,” one veteran player said. “No one would tell you that. Everyone believes he’s a top-10 quarterback in the league.”

Fields’ teammates uniformly speak about him with respect. They laud his toughness, his work ethic and his example. He takes copious notes in meetings. It’s not just the on-field product that matters to those who have been part of Fields’ daily development.

As cornerback Jaylon Johnson puts it, Fields “has had the city on his shoulders since he came in,” which is a burden in Bears-crazed Chicago, but he has been a “true professional” through it all. “I can’t see another quarterback coming in here and taking anything over,” Johnson said.

If Poles is retained as expected, the GM will spend significant time assessing the complete picture around Fields in Chicago and how it might shape the future. A front office source said Fields’ “special” playmaking has “absolutely” made the Bears’ quarterback decision for April’s draft more difficult. Issues of team chemistry will play a role, and the Bears will evaluate the totality of Fields’ performance in Chicago, including the impact of a supporting cast that has not always been a complement during his three seasons.

The scars of a recent teardown that saw the team jettison its best and most popular players remain apparent.

“It’s like, if you get rid of him, what are we doing?” a Bears veteran said. “It’s like last year when they got rid of [linebacker] Roquan [Smith] and Rob [pass-rusher Robert Quinn]. That was our captain. We knew we were going down.”

KEEP OR TRADE the No. 1 pick? Stick with Fields or move on? These are not new questions for the Bears, who were in this exact position one year ago. Holding the No. 1 selection, Chicago had to decide whether drafting Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson or someone else would place the franchise in a better spot than the return that would come from dealing the pick. The Bears dealt the pick, receiving two first-round selections, two second-round picks and Moore from the Panthers, who chose Young No. 1.

Carolina’s league-worst performance in 2023 means the second of those two-first round picks gives Chicago another crack at the top choice. Arizona, New England and Washington — teams that face uncertainty at quarterback entering this offseason — are all 4-12 entering Week 18 and at the front of the pack for the No. 2 pick.

The early assessment from people around the league is that USC’s Williams and North Carolina’s Maye comprise Tier 1 of the 2024 quarterback class. LSU’s Jayden Daniels, the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner, is a possible third entrant.

The belief is this draft class is stronger at quarterback than those of the previous two years. At this early stage, Williams and Maye are viewed as high-level, long-term NFL starters, with Williams’ elite traits — improvisation and off-schedule playmaking — fueling his case to become the No. 1 pick. One NFL personnel man called Williams “one of the best I’ve seen in a long time” in terms of his passing abilities and playmaking. A number of teams, including those that lose out on this week’s No. 2 derby, could have interest in trading for Chicago’s top selection.

A top pick also comes with at least four years of contractual control on a rookie pay scale, which would help Chicago strengthen the roster around the newcomer. Fields has one year remaining on his rookie deal, plus a fifth-year option in 2025 that the Bears would have to exercise or decline if they don’t award him a new contract.

If the Bears traded the first pick, the return could be immense. Several executives agree Chicago could net more than it did in the Panthers trade, and from a prospective trade partner already picking in the top five. Those execs believe the price to get to No. 1 could be two future first-rounders on top of this year’s pick, along with a variation of a Day 2 pick and/or a premium veteran player on a manageable contract.

While assessing the market for the No. 1 pick, the Bears must also determine what they could get back in a trade involving Fields.

The consensus in an informal poll of league evaluators is that Fields would be worth a second- or third-round pick in a pre-draft trade. When compared to former top-10 picks recently traded, that’s better than Trey Lance, whom Dallas acquired from San Francisco for a fourth-round pick, but slightly worse than Sam Darnold, who, along with a sixth-round pick, went from the Jets to Carolina in exchange for second- and fourth-rounders.

“If you want to build an offense in a certain way around [Fields], then it can work behind a good offensive line and a dual-threat running game,” an AFC executive said. “And he can make plays with his arm strength, for sure.”

One AFC executive sees Atlanta as a good fit for Fields, who he believes would thrive in a system with designed quarterback runs, or one inspired by the Gary Kubiak coaching tree that creates off play-action. Falcons coach Arthur Smith was Tennessee’s offensive coordinator during Ryan Tannehill’s best stretch as an NFL quarterback. While Fields has superior physical tools to Tannehill, both can be schemed in similar ways as mobile players with plus arm strength.

“If you have to throw the ball 35 times a game with Fields, then you might run into challenges,” the exec said. “But that doesn’t mean that you can’t have success with him and that he can’t win throwing the ball. He just needs the right offense and support system.”

Though Fields has generally been well-supported in Chicago, his relationship with the team has not been without its challenges.

Fields described his play in a 27-17 loss to Tampa Bay in Week 2 as “robotic,” and said he did not feel he was “playing like myself.” When asked what he felt was the culprit for his struggles, the 24-year-old quarterback nonchalantly cited “coaching” in comments that quickly went viral.

Fields was made aware of the traction those sentiments had gained as he walked off the practice field that afternoon. In a matter of two hours, the quarterback’s tone shifted from candid to remorseful. Before calling an impromptu news conference with media members in the locker room to clarify his comments, Fields apologized to offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and quarterbacks coach Andrew Janocko.

Inside the building, the Bears used the moment as a learning experience for the quarterback. On the outside, Fields’ comments sparked a discourse that has lasted throughout the season.

“We knew this wasn’t going to be easy or quick,” a team source said. “It was always going to be a process and going to be hard. So these things will happen along the way. It was an issue in the building for about 10 minutes and then it was gone.”

That ability to adjust has endeared Fields to people inside the building. As one coaching source said, Fields works hard to correct missed opportunities pointed out on film, such as failing to anticipate a zone-coverage window or a developing deep-ball route.

The film work culminated in one of his best performances as a pro Sunday against Atlanta, with 313 total yards, two touchdowns and a 99.5 passer rating to defeat the Falcons by 20 points.

“This is a high-ceiling player — there’s much more he can tap into,” the coaching source said.

– – –

There’s a polarizing divide between the section of Bears fans who believe the team must provide Fields with more weapons and better coaching, and those who hope the team drafts a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick. It’s as close to a 50-50 split concerning QB play as Thayer can remember.

“It’s been more of a 70-30 split [on the best of the previous Bears quarterbacks]: 70% dislike and 30% like,” Thayer said.

Even amid losing seasons and shaky play, Fields has continued to win over fans with not only dazzling moments but leadership traits and accountability that play well in a blue-collar city like Chicago. As the quarterback has fielded questions of his own viability as the long-term answer for a city starved for a franchise quarterback, the value of having thick skin cannot be overstated.

“I’m in awe of it every day,” Janocko, the quarterbacks coach, said.

“To me, that’s why he wears the ‘C’ on his jersey,” he added. “That comes with the territory, that comes with being the quarterback in this city for this franchise.”

Along with the “draft a QB” and “keep Fields” options is a third possibility: draft a QB and keep Fields, an unusual setup that could challenge Fields’ ability to remain stoic and could create friction in a locker room that supports him. Historically, it’s the type of decision the Bears have not gotten right.

“It’s the biggest sports solution in Chicagoland sports marketing history. [Chicago] kind of stumbled upon Michael Jordan and he became what he became,” Thayer said. “But in Chicago sports history, there’s no bigger decision than the Bears quarterback. He’s not going to do it alone. You’re not going to bring the best of the best in here and all of a sudden make everybody and everything else because he’s a great quarterback. He needs a running game, he needs protection.”

AS THE FINAL seconds ticked off the Bears’ 37-17 victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, Fields could hear the chants.

“We want Fields!” was the cry as he entered the home tunnel at Soldier Field for what could be the final time. In the locker room, players smoked cigars in a space that didn’t seem like it was inhabited by a 7-9 team. Kevin Warren offered a message while making his way through the bowels of the stadium, declaring that, “2024 is going to be special.”

Everything about the day felt like “a movie” for Fields, from beating his hometown Falcons in the snow to the crowd chanting in support of the quarterback on an afternoon where he put together one of his best performances of the season (20-of-32 passing, 268 yards, 1 TD, 45 rushing yards and another score with zero turnovers).

“Definitely going to remember this game for the rest of my life,” Fields said.

The quarterback wasn’t the only one to hear the crowd’s plea to Poles and his staff, which wafted toward the luxury suites.

“I did hear those chants and I know their boxes [the front office] are right there so I know they heard that stuff, too,” Moore said.

The hard work is now expected to arrive for Poles, in particular. The Bears need to win in 2024, making the margin for error on personnel decisions necessarily thin.

As he did at this time last year, Poles will pore over every top quarterback prospect’s throws over the next two months, with his evaluations of Williams and Maye helping to inform the team’s decisions around its draft board and, potentially, the Fields decision.

Poles and his staff are crafting a preliminary draft board based on value, trying not to prioritize any one position. Poles’ philosophy is mistakes can be made when that happens, even though quarterbacks naturally receive the most scrutiny. The Bears have not begun the process of determining or simulating trade value at the quarterback position in earnest, according to a front office source.

After the NFL combine in March, the Bears should have a clear idea on the direction of their quarterback room. Within this context, it’s notable that the Panthers deal was made on March 10.

The direction of one of the NFL’s storied franchises could hang in the balance. Stick with what’s been working of late, or make yet another trip into the quarterback unknown? Bears supporters will continue to debate the question. And Chicago’s current roster will hope the answer is Fields, not a rookie.

“If we do that next year, it’s like where are we going?” a Bears starter said of drafting a QB at No. 1. “So we’ve got to go through this for another year until he [a rookie quarterback] is able to compete for a Super Bowl?”

For Fields, the wait could be agonizing, though the quarterback has expressed a mature “control what you can control” mentality that belies his 24 years.

“I just worry about what’s going on today,” Fields said last week. “Shoot, I don’t process what’s going to go on in the future. I don’t think anybody does, to be honest. … You all don’t know. Nobody knows. Whatever happens, happens.”

DETROIT

Dan Campbell says the loss to the Cowboys will only fuel the Lions should there be a re-match in three weeks.  Eric Woodyard of ESPN.com:

– Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell is ready to put the most recent game behind him.

In the aftermath of Saturday’s controversial prime-time loss to the Dallas Cowboys, Campbell said he woke up feeling fine the very next day and now has “controlled fury” entering the regular-season finale against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday — where the Lions have a shot at winning 12 games in a season for the second time in franchise history.

“I’m absolutely ready to go. I don’t go the other way. And the team won’t either. We’re on a mission and we’re not going to feel sorry for ourselves and wallow in everything,” Campbell said. “We had plays to make and we didn’t make them. It’s a tight game, a good opponent, playoff-type atmosphere, and you’ve got to make that extra play that we didn’t.

“So, we will use this as fuel. I’ve got pure octane right now,” he said. “I woke up, I’m ready. So, we’re moving forward.”

Detroit’s loss in Dallas has been a trending topic in the sports world after a potential game-winning 2-point conversion by offensive lineman Taylor Decker was negated by an illegal touching penalty for not reporting as eligible.

The referee controversy also brought back memories of Detroit’s 2014 wild-card playoff game at Dallas where the Lions led 20-17 with 8:25 left when Matthew Stafford threw a pass for Brandon Pettigrew on third-and-1 from the Dallas 46, but it fell incomplete.

Cowboys rookie linebacker Anthony Hitchens was initially called for pass interference but the call was changed, and the referees picked up the flag. The Cowboys would score the game-winning touchdown on their next drive.

Campbell doesn’t want history or the latest controversial 2-point conversion trick play penalty to affect the players. He says he’s over it and is now letting Lions president and CEO Rod Wood handle any legal matters with the league. The Lions haven’t heard anything back from the NFL yet.

“It’s unfortunate it came down to what it did. I don’t think there was no ‘the fix is in,'” Lions QB Jared Goff said following Saturday’s loss. “They just messed it up. It happens. It’s part of the game. But unfortunately, it happened on that play.”

Campbell also doesn’t want the fans believing that the NFL is holding any biases against the Lions.

“Don’t buy into that. Don’t live in that world, man. That will just pull you down. And if it makes you feel any better, the NFL is against every team, all right. Because look, I was at New Orleans, so I know what that feels like,” Campbell said. “And, but you know what? We walked away. Even in that game, we had chances to win before all that happened, but that one ended it. That was it, man. We walked away, packed our bags and left.

“This one, we got a taste of what that’s like, but we’ve still got a chance. We haven’t even started the tournament. So, I think it’s a blessing. And I would tell fans, ‘Don’t do it. Don’t even believe that.’ We’re just getting started.”

Tom Pellissaro of NFL.com says he hears that not only did Dan Campbell tell the two officials who went to the pre-game meeting about his trickery, but Campbell is saying he specifically went to Allen directly before the game and laid the whole thing out.

And there is post-screw-up video of Campbell yelling “I told you,” directly to Allen.

Will the Lions see Allen anytime soon?  He has a track record per MLFootball:

@_MLFootball

CRAZY: Brad Allen has officiated 6 #Lions games.

Detroit is 0 and 6 in those games.

#Lions penalty yards awarded: 287

Other team penalty yards awarded: 435

😳😳😳

(Via ProFootballReference & @JASF_Detroit)

NFC EAST

PHILADELPHIA

When Josina Anderson hinted of an impending surprise NFC East coaching change was she talking about Nick Sirianni of the reeling Eagles?  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Eagles went to the Super Bowl last season and they were 10-1 to open this season, so it didn’t seem likely that the start of 2024 would feature their head coach fielding questions about his future with the team.

Four losses in five games and cascading issues around the team have a way of changing things, though. Nick Sirianni has changed defensive play callers without seeing an upgrade on that side of the ball and no unit on the team is performing at a consistent enough level to feel good about the team’s chances of making another extended playoff run.

During an appearance on WIP Tuesday, Sirianni was asked if he thinks he’s lost the team and said he’s “not concerned” about that or anything other than trying to “right the ship.” He said he’s confident the team can do that and was asked at the end of the appearance if he’s worried about his job security if he can’t get it done.

“No, I don’t think about those things,” Sirianni said. “I try to stay where we are right now. How we play good football this week against the Giants, how do we fix some of the things that we got going on right now. That’s where my focus is and that’s where I’ll be obviously the rest of this week.”

The Eagles know they’ll be in the playoffs and teams have found a way to recover their footing after rough patches in the past, but an embarrassing end to the year would likely ensure that Tuesday’s question about Sirianni’s future isn’t the last one asked in Philadelphia.

With a triumvirate of Sirianni, OC Shane Steichen and DC Jonathan Gannon, the 2022 Eagles were undoubtedly a well-coached football team.  Now, two of those three are elsewhere, with Steichen having the Colts overperforming and Gannon winning over Dallas and Philadelphia with his outgunned Cardinals.

WASHINGTON

WR TERRY McLAURIN wonders what if per Jordan Dajani of CBSSports.com:

The Washington Commanders’ 2023 campaign has gone from bad to worse over the past couple months. Washington has now lost seven straight games while allowing at least 27 points in each contest, and the early promise quarterback Sam Howell showed has faded.

The Commanders fell to 4-12 on Sunday, as they allowed their former No. 2 overall pick, Chase Young, and the San Francisco 49ers to clinch the No. 1 seed in the conference with a 27-10 victory. These two clubs are clearly on the opposite sides of the spectrum in the NFL, and it’s something Commanders wideout Terry McLaurin lamented after the game.

When asked how difficult it was to see players he knows competing for a Super Bowl while his Commanders are out of playoff contention, McLaurin offered a rather sad response (via The Washington Post).

“It’s definitely tough. I mean, you want to be a part of something that sustainable and you’re winning and competing at a high level. You know, they’ve got a great staff over there. They’ve got great players. You can tell that they love playing together. They do a great job of getting everybody involved. Defense is flying around. They have fun. You know, I got to spend some time with a lot of those guys, like six or seven of them made the Pro Bowl last year. I really got to be around them and it kind of reminds me a little bit at Ohio State. You know what I mean, the kind of culture that they have and everything. You see why they have the success that they do.

When you’re going against teams like that, you got to play, not perfect, but you got to make the most of every opportunity. You can’t turn over the ball. You got to extend drives and score in the red zone. I think, top to bottom, they have All-Pro players at every level. You got to give them credit for building that team and for the players going out there and executing. Hopefully, I can be a part of something like that, but I’m just focused on myself, my world and my journey and I’m going to keep working to be the best player I can be.”

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

RB CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY’s regular season is done.  Myles Simmons ofProFootballTalk.com:

The 49ers clinched the NFC’s No. 1 seed on Sunday with their win over the Commanders and the Eagles’ loss to the Cardinals.

That’s a good thing for one of their key players who has an injury.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan said on Monday that running back Christian McCaffrey has a mild calf strain and won’t play in Sunday’s regular-season finale against the Rams. But it sounds like the injury won’t keep him out of any postseason action.

“We’re real confident on that,” Shanahan said, via Nick Wagoner of ESPN. “It was good news. I could have been a lot worse. We’re happy that they’ll take care of him this week and hopefully he’ll start getting to go during our off week.”

McCaffrey suffered the calf injury during the third quarter of the victory over Washington. The running back called the injury “pretty minor” when speaking to reporters after the game.

McCaffrey currently leads the league with 1,459 rushing yards, 339 touches, 2,023 yards from scrimmage, and 21 total touchdowns.

Shanahan also noted that cornerback Ambry Thomas will have surgery on his hand on Tuesday. While he won’t play in Week 18, he’s expected to return for the divisional round.

The 49ers also plan to open receiver/returning Ray-Ray McCloud’s 21-day practice window. He’s been sidelined by a rib injury.

McCaffrey has a lead of 266 yards in scrimmage yards over WR CEEDEE LAMB of the Cowboys.  In the illustrious history of the 49ers, his 2,023 ranks 5^th with Frank Gore holding the team mark of 2,180 in 2006.

Jerry Rice’s team record of 23 total TDs in 1987 is also safe, with McCaffrey finishing with 21.

Gore’s 1,695 rush yards in 2006 remains the team record.

In the 2023 rushing race, McCaffrey has a lead of 315 yards going into Week 18.  Number 2?  Kyren Williams of the Rams who has only played in 12 game while compiling 1,144 rush yards.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Infused by a bounceback season that has them in the playoffs, Sean McVay is not thinking about a broadcast position as this season draws to a close.  Myles Simmons ofProFootballTalk.com:

After the 2022 season, Sean McVay took a few days to contemplate his future before informing the Rams that he would return as their head coach for 2023.

Not that there was much question about it, but there won’t be a need for any such time this January.

In Monday’s edition of the Rams’ in-house Coach McVay Show, McVay confirmed that he’ll be with Los Angeles in 2024.

“That I can promise you,” McVay said, via J.B. Long of the team’s website.

The topic came up as part of a discussion about McVay getting closer to becoming the team’s all-time leader in wins as a head coach. John Robinson currently holds that mark with 75 victories in 143 games. McVay is just six behind at 69 wins in 114 games. If the Rams stay healthy next year, it’s highly likely he’ll eclipse that mark based on Los Angeles’ track record in his tenure.

McVay already has the most postseason victories in team history with a 7-3 record. The Rams will try to add to that win column in the Wild Card round after clinching a playoff berth over the weekend.

The DB thinks these Rams will be a tough out this postseason – although with a path that could go Detroit, Dallas, San Francisco – we don’t think they could run that table.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

Mike Florio has seen enough, calling the MVP race for QB LAMAR JACKSON.

Eight days ago, the MVP likely would come from the 49ers. The only debate was which 49ers player would win it.

Today, there’s not much of a debate.

I’ve got one of the 50 votes for the Associated Press awards. (#brag) I’m not saying that to brag. (#brag) I’m saying that because they don’t want us to declare our votes prematurely. Which makes sense, since people bet on these awards.

As it relates to the league MVP prize, it’s hard to imagine anyone overcoming Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. He finished the season by toppling the 49ers (wiping out the candidacy of quarterback Brock Purdy and running back Christian McCaffrey). Six days later, Jackson had five touchdown passes in a 56-19 blowout of the Dolphins (ta-ta, Tua and Tyreek).

At this point, it would take something massive, something historic to overcome Jackson. Tyreek Hill would need 283-receiving yards against the Bills, vaulting him to 2,000, to have a chance. Even then, it would only be a chance. Bills quarterback Josh Allen would need to throw for 500-plus yards and six or seven touchdowns to nail down the No. 2 seed in the AFC to have a chance. Again, it would only be a chance.

Even then, chances are it will be Lamar. That doesn’t mean I’ve made up my mind. I’ll wait until Bills-Dolphins wraps Week 18 before making a ballot. But it’s going to take a lot in one game for anyone to overcome the resume Lamar has compiled this season.

After years of fighting the establishment, Florio has taken a seat at the table.  Next thing, he will be a Hall of Fame selector.

PITTSBURGH

QB KENNY PICKETT speaks to reports that he would not accept the backup role to QB MASON RUDOLP.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett is not happy with reports that he refused to suit up for Sunday’s game against the Seahawks as a backup.

Pickett, who has been demoted to No. 2 quarterback behind Mason Rudolph, says he was inactive on Sunday because he hadn’t been medically cleared to return from ankle surgery. This week he has been cleared to play and says he’s ready to do whatever he has to do as Rudolph’s backup in a crucial game against the Ravens.

“I saw reports out there that I felt like were attacking my character and how I am as a person,” Pickett told reporters in the Steelers’ locker room today. “There was no talk of me being a backup quarterback this week in terms of being a 2. If I was healthy enough to play, if the trainers and coaches felt I looked good enough to play, I was going to start and play. If they believe I was not, which they believed I was not, I was not going to dress and suit up for the game. So whoever reported that, I don’t know where it started, it’s kind of crazy what people will write or put out there to try to prove their point or help their standpoint or their careers or what you guys do. I’m disappointed to see that without any proof or basis of it. So this week I’m now the 2, they feel good four weeks out of the surgery for me to dress and be the 2, so I will be the 2 to be ready to go for Baltimore. If there’s any other questions about that, I feel like I answered it pretty good there, if there’s anything else, any Baltimore questions, we’re on to Baltimore.”

Pickett is surely disappointed that the Steelers are sticking with Rudolph, and that decision raises major questions about Pickett’s future in Pittsburgh. But now that he’s been told he’s Rudolph’s backup, he says he’s ready to accept that and get ready to be one play away.

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

They could still miss the playoffs, yes they could.  But Pete Prisco has the Bills second in the current AFC pecking order:

When the Buffalo Bills were 5-5, fresh off a horrible home loss to the Denver Broncos, they were considered done, a playoff long shot with Josh Allen the target of loads of criticism based on his play and his propensity to turn the ball over.

Six games later, the Bills will be playing for a division title this week against the Miami Dolphins with a chance to be the AFC’s No. 2 seed. Their only loss in the past five games was in overtime to the Eagles, a game they probably should have won.

Buffalo made a change at offensive coordinator after the loss to the Broncos, replacing Ken Dorsey with Joe Brady, a move that has paid off in a big way. Allen has cut down on the turnovers and has even put himself in the MVP talk, although that will definitely go to Lamar Jackson.

The other change for the Bills has been the improvement of the defense during the past six games. That unit has improved as players have returned to health, players like corner Christian Benford, safety Micah Hyde and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones. The improvement of linebackers Terrel Bernard and Tyrel Dodson has really impacted that unit as well.

Buffalo is up to No. 4 in my Power Rankings this week, a spot most didn’t see them occupying six weeks ago. At 10-6, the Bills could still be a playoff team even if they don’t beat the Dolphins this week. But the easiest path is a win-and-in scenario.

The dysfunction after the Denver loss is way behind this team. So is the foolish talk that Allen was overrated, that coach Sean McDermott could be on his way out and that the window for this group was closed.

It’s far from it. In fact, they might be the biggest challenger to the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC, even if they don’t beat Miami this week but still get into the playoffs. As they ready to face Miami, consider this: Allen is 9-2 in the regular season against Miami with 31 touchdown passes against five picks, and he’s also 1-0 in the playoffs against the Dolphins. Earlier this year, Allen threw four touchdown passes, ran for one and had a perfect passer rating in a blowout of the Dolphins.

And now the Dolphins defense comes in banged up and having been carved to shreds by Jackson, with its two top pass rushers, Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, out for the year. Chubb was lost for the season in the team’s loss to the Ravens Sunday with a torn ACL.

The Bills look to be rolling to a division title, although winning at Miami won’t be easy. The Bills are now the team most of us expected them to be before the season, which is why that Denver loss seems so far in the rear-view mirror.

NEW ENGLAND

On the eve of something, Bill Belichick gives Greg Hill more than a grunt:

This, yes he said it:

@TheGregHillShow

“If I was going to do anything I’d put it out there on Twitter and MyFace”

More on his Greg Hill Show comments from Mike Reiss:

@MikeReiss

Bill Belichick, to @TheGregHillShow , after fielding multiple questions relating to the future and why he doesn’t entertain them: “Whatever success I have had, I’ve tried to go about my job the same way every week — win, lose, good years, bad years, whatever they are.

“Each week, get ready to go for that week, do the best you can to help your team win, and after that game move on to the next one. And at the end of the season, that’s the end of the season.

“But on a week-to-week basis, I don’t want to spend time, or get caught up in what happened 5 years ago, or what’s going to happen 2 years from now, and a bunch of other random stuff. Just working on the Jets.

“… I’m committed to the team that I’m coaching right now, the players that are here. They deserve my best every day and that’s what I’m going to give them.”

Florio commentary:

It’s the right attitude. Still, the day for making decisions is coming soon. For owner Robert Kraft, and for Belichick.

Will he return? If not, how will the two sides separate? If he leaves, where will he go next?

Whatever the answers, they’re coming sooner than later. Right after the Jets game.

Chad Graff of The Athletic takes a look:

Confetti rained down around Bill Belichick and Tom Brady as the two hugged near midfield, Super Bowl champs together for the sixth time. It was Feb. 3, 2019. Belichick patted Brady’s shoulder pads twice. Robert Kraft, the longtime owner of the Patriots, embraced the quarterback. He told Brady he was the best ever.

They all partied together that night in Atlanta as the franchise celebrated an unmatched run of dominance. The Chainsmokers and Snoop Dogg performed.

With the Patriots’ Super Bowl LIII win over the Rams, Kraft, Belichick and Brady each cemented their status as the most successful at their respective position in NFL history. No owner, no coach, no quarterback could match the stretch of winning that the three architects of the Patriots dynasty had orchestrated.

But behind the scenes, the relationship between Brady and Belichick was fraying. The things that had made them such a good pairing for 20 years were now pulling them apart.

Brady left New England after the 2019 season to sign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The following season, he led the Bucs to a Super Bowl title, the seventh of his storied career. Over the last four years, the Patriots, meanwhile, tried Cam Newton, Mac Jones, then Bailey Zappe at quarterback as their offense slowly decayed into one of the league’s worst.

After arguably the best 20-year run in league history, the Patriots haven’t won a playoff game since that Super Bowl in Atlanta five years ago. They’re 29-37 since Brady left and 4-12 this season, earning their first last-place finish in the AFC East since 2000, Belichick’s first year on the job.Now, they’re just a week away from a potential major sea change. Rumors abound — as they have for much of the fall — that Belichick and the Patriots may part ways at the end of the season.

Answers about the franchise’s future are expected to come following a sit-down between Kraft and Belichick shortly after the Week 18 game against the New York Jets that matters only in how it will affect New England’s 2024 draft position.

The Athletic spoke with multiple team and league sources familiar with the thinking inside the building to examine how the most successful relationships in NFL history soured, putting the Patriots in a downward spiral and on the doorstep of franchise-altering questions.

For so long, Belichick was the perfect coach for Brady. The three-time NFL coach of the year took a shovel to the chip on Brady’s shoulder. The quarterback was at his best when he believed he’d been slighted, when he could make an enemy out of the smallest knock on him. And Belichick picked at that wound. He pointed out Brady’s flaws in team meetings more than any other player. For a long time, Brady thrived on that.

And for so long, Brady was the perfect quarterback for Belichick. He believed in complementary football, willing to put his stats aside for the benefit of the team. He took discounted contracts to help Belichick build out the roster at other positions, and he didn’t complain if those additional resources weren’t used on the offense.

But by the end of 2019, celebrating another Super Bowl felt like a distant memory. The relationship between Brady and Belichick was fractured. After six Super Bowls and three MVPs, Brady was 42 years old and didn’t want to be antagonized at work anymore. He wanted the kind of contract that meant he wouldn’t go anywhere until he was 45, ensuring he retired as a Patriot. Belichick wouldn’t commit to that kind of deal.

Brady complained to Kraft throughout 2019. Belichick did the same. That wasn’t necessarily new. Kraft heard independently from the two sides for over a year, often aptly walking the tightrope of letting each side vent without making rash decisions, keeping together the most successful relationship in NFL history even when it felt like they were near a boiling point. Many within the organization credit Kraft for his work as a middleman, keeping Brady and Belichick together long enough to win that sixth Super Bowl.

Kraft’s final ploy to keep together the best coach-quarterback duo in league history was to ensure Brady would have the chance to be a free agent at the end of 2019. He hoped that would incentivize Belichick to make changes. Treat Brady differently. Make him a bigger part of the operation. Focus on the offense more.

But Belichick refused to change. He told Kraft that Brady’s play was declining. As painful as it was to say goodbye to Brady, which he did during an in-person chat at Kraft’s home, the owner understood why Brady wanted to leave, and Kraft trusted his longtime coach that the separation would eventually help the Patriots.

Since Brady’s departure, though, Kraft has grown frustrated as his team, once a model of success, has cratered into one of the NFL’s worst.

Belichick, meanwhile, has expressed irritation that all the success he’s helped provide hasn’t garnered more deference during this decline. When asked before the 2023 season why fans should still be optimistic about the Patriots, Belichick quipped, “I don’t know — the last 25 years?”

In the days before this season began, Belichick, 71, spoke with a reverence for Brady that he hadn’t to that point. Brady was returning to Gillette Stadium for the first time since his retirement for a ceremony that included a halftime speech.

As the event neared, Belichick called Brady the best offensive player ever. He said that one night wasn’t nearly enough to celebrate the former quarterback. Asked for a favorite memory, Belichick said, “There are six of them that come to mind.”

For longtime members of the organization, it was jarring to hear Belichick talk like that after years of hard coaching and limited praise for Brady. Some were left to ponder difficult questions: If Belichick had spoken like that in the final years with Brady, might the quarterback have stayed in New England? Would they have a seventh Super Bowl ring together? An eighth?

But Belichick hasn’t changed. And he wasn’t going to for one player, even Brady. He may have a dry sense of humor away from the cameras, but for the most part, what you see is what you get. His demeanor inside the team’s headquarters isn’t that different from the gruff, stoic attitude regularly on display at his news conferences.

Patriots Hall of Famer Kevin Faulk once said he walked past Belichick in the hallways for years, greeting him every day without so much as a “Hello” in return. Players seldom hear flattering remarks from their coach. “He definitely serves a lot of humble pie,” safety Jabrill Peppers said. “He don’t praise nobody,” linebacker Mack Wilson agreed.

That can make it difficult to relate to young players who join the Patriots, a different generation that wants to understand why the team is doing certain things rather than just being ordered around, one that likes to be complimented and recognized for its hard work.

In many ways, the Patriots do things differently than the rest of the league, mostly because of how Belichick runs the show. They’ve been reluctant to embrace sports science and analytics. Belichick once said he uses analytics “less than zero” to make in-game decisions. The Patriots are one of only four NFL teams that don’t employ a multiperson analytics and research department. It’s fair to reason they haven’t modernized the way most other teams have because Belichick hasn’t seen the need to with the six Lombardi Trophies as evidence for continuing to do things his way.

While most other teams have seen their coaching staffs balloon with extra assistants in recent years, Belichick has opted to keep his inner circle tight. So the Patriots began this season with 18 assistant coaches, including only eight on offense. (The 49ers, by comparison, have 27 on staff, including 14 on offense.) That was especially troubling in 2023 when two offensive assistants left midseason. Offensive line coach Adrian Klemm left the team in November for a “health-related” issue, Belichick said, and wide receivers coach Ross Douglas left in early December to take the same job with Syracuse.

Given the small size, Belichick demands more from his staff. The group went to Las Vegas last January to coach one of the teams at the Shrine Bowl, a pre-draft showcase game for college prospects. Arthur Smith’s Atlanta Falcons staff was in charge of the other team. Smith worked his assistants hard during the day but allowed them time off to have fun and get to know each other at night. Belichick took a different approach. His staff spent 12 hours a day preparing for the game. Then, once that work was done, they spent their nights studying for the coming NFL season — seven months away.

It also hasn’t helped that some of Belichick’s top lieutenants have departed for other jobs, further isolating an already reclusive coach. Josh McDaniels, who worked with Belichick for 18 years, left to become the Raiders’ head coach. Brian Flores, who worked with Belichick for 11 years, left to take the head coaching job with the Dolphins. Dante Scarnecchia and Ivan Fears, the position coaches Belichick trusted most, retired after a combined 40 years under Belichick. Right-hand man Ernie Adams retired after 20 seasons with Belichick.

The same happened in the player personnel department, which Belichick also leads. Nick Caserio became the Texans’ general manager after 20 years with Belichick. Dave Ziegler left to become the Raiders’ general manager after nine years under Belichick. Monti Ossenfort left for the Texans and then got the Cardinals’ general manager gig after working with Belichick for 14 years.

Belichick is slow to trust and values familiarity over the unknown. He doesn’t want to teach a whole new coaching staff how to do its job. So he replaced those assistants with familiar faces, even if they lacked the proper qualifications. That led to Matt Patricia, a defensive specialist, and Joe Judge, a former special teams coordinator, jointly running the offense in 2022, a crucial year for second-year quarterback Mac Jones. (New England went 8-9 and Jones struggled mightily.)

With those departures, Belichick lost many of his sounding boards. His decision-making became even more siloed. In a league that increasingly values collaboration and a confluence of ideas, the Patriots are an anomaly. Belichick decides everything. Scouts can spend years getting to know everything about a prospect, but if Belichick doesn’t agree with the assessment, they’re often overruled.

His draft classes have long struggled. Astoundingly, Belichick hasn’t re-signed a player he drafted in the first three rounds since 2013 (Duron Harmon). In 2022, he chose a left guard in the first round who was seen by most experts as a third-round pick at best, then in the second round chose a wide receiver (Tyquan Thornton) who can already be labeled a bust. His 2021 first-round pick (Jones) has been benched, and his first-round pick in 2019 (N’Keal Harry) was such a bust that he was off the team three years later.

That caused Kraft to up the pressure on Belichick in the spring of 2021, bemoaning the results of his recent draft classes and insisting on improvement. “If you want to have a good, consistent, winning football team, you can’t do it in free agency,” Kraft said. “You have to do it through the draft.”

Belichick, who came up studying defenses, has been unable to fix the team’s offense. The Patriots rank last in scoring this season.

Instead, Belichick has sought to win by zigging when everyone else zags. He planned to win this season with defense and special teams, investing more resources into special teams than any other coach in the league (the Patriots have seven players on their 53-man roster solely dedicated to the unit). Yet, they rank last in the NFL in field goal percentage, 31st in yards per punt return and 23rd in net yards per punt.

– – –

Kraft remains cognizant of his image and careful in his decision-making. It’s unlikely he’ll decide Belichick’s fate with his Hall of Fame candidacy top of mind; there are bigger issues at play. But whatever decision Kraft makes will be part of that legacy, adding extra weight to an already difficult and important choice. After Kraft watched Brady win a Super Bowl elsewhere, how painful would it be if Belichick did the same?

“Before I make a final decision,” Kraft once wrote, “I measure nine times and I cut once.”

That’s why it’s no surprise that Kraft has been calculated regarding this decision about Belichick. It’s not going to come lightly. In 30 years of ownership, he has only worked with three head coaches and is proud all three have found lasting success (Bill Parcells, Pete Carroll and Belichick).

Of course, there’s been a lot to like in the 24 years Kraft and Belichick have worked together. But that hasn’t continued in recent years, which is why Kraft challenged Belichick in 2021. For a relationship that had been so successful for so long, it was one of the first public critiques of Belichick’s plan and results.

Belichick, for his part, seemed to begin playing his own games through the media from that point on. He praised several other ownership groups and the facilities of several other teams while conspicuously refraining from praising the Krafts and the renovations they’ve privately funded at Gillette Stadium. Meanwhile, he’s said little publicly about Robert or Jonathan Kraft. His only comments about the $250 million renovation the Krafts completed this year were about how the bigger video board might affect wind patterns for the kickers.

In August, just before Kraft found out he hadn’t been selected for the Hall of Fame, Belichick was given a chance to publicly back the candidacy of the guy who signs his paychecks. It was a softball of a question, but Belichick was brief in his answer.

 “Keeping our fingers crossed that we get the vote this year,” he said.

To Belichick backers, it was a simple sign of support for the owner. He was hoping Kraft would get the votes. What more could you want?

But others saw it as a less-than-full-throated endorsement. Belichick is often brief when discussing his current team, but it’s not uncommon for him to talk for several minutes about long snappers, left-footed punters or Curly Lambeau’s playbook. Yet when it came to his boss’s place in NFL history, his answer lasted 11 words.

On Dec. 17, Kraft sat quietly in his owner’s suite below Section 310 as the Patriots lost their penultimate home game to the Kansas City Chiefs.

It was a cold Sunday afternoon. It felt like there were more Chiefs fans in attendance than those of any opposing team in years. The scene was a far cry from what the NFL envisioned at the beginning of the season when this game had been tabbed for “Monday Night Football.”

But even all the favor Kraft has built with broadcast partners and the stardom of the Chiefs — like reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes, all-world tight Travis Kelce and even pop superstar girlfriend Taylor Swift — wasn’t enough for ESPN and the NFL to want the slumping Patriots as part of their prime-time slate. They moved the game from Monday night to Sunday afternoon, another gut punch for Kraft and his team in a season full of them.

Now change feels inevitable. Some see it as a sign of respect that Kraft didn’t fire Belichick outright following one of several rock-bottom moments this season. But that said, it’s hard to imagine simply running things back with minimal changes.

Perhaps Kraft might be enticed to keep Belichick as the coach if he’d relinquish power elsewhere (like control of player personnel or the draft), but it seems unlikely that Belichick, mastermind of six Super Bowls, is going to willingly give up the authority he’s amassed.

What seems most likely is a mutual parting of the ways, a chance for the Krafts to celebrate and thank Belichick for the years of success while bringing in a new voice to lead the organization. The Patriots could also try to seek draft compensation from another team by trading Belichick, but the coach would have to be on board with that plan. Or maybe the two sides can somehow put this season behind them, surprise onlookers around the league and keep their relationship going for another year.

Their collaboration has been far more successful than either imagined when it began nearly 25 years ago with Belichick scribbling on a napkin that he was resigning from the Jets after one day as their head coach to join Kraft and the Patriots.

Kraft gave Belichick what he always wanted, autonomy in football operations, and let him flex an unparalleled football acumen built as a schoolboy studying football with his dad at the Naval Academy.

And Belichick gave Kraft what he had dreamed of. Before owning the franchise, Kraft was a diehard season ticket holder watching bad Patriots teams on cold days in a decrepit stadium. Belichick gave Kraft a football team that won more than any other. Kraft gained clout and status amongst an ego-filled group of billionaire owners, none of whom could match Kraft’s success.

But five years after that last Super Bowl, the Patriots are a shell of their once-dominant selves. By the two-minute warning of that Week 15 game against the Chiefs, another double-digit loss was already decided.

Fans headed out for an early exit. Kraft did, too. He got up from his usual seat next to Jonathan and looked around. Visiting fans were filling the lower bowl to cheer on their team. Kraft looked at Jonathan and the two got up to leave.

There was no point in watching this any longer.

This at BetOnline.com:

Patriots Next Full Time Coach if not Belichick

Jerod Mayo                      +150

Ben Johnson                   +500

Jim Harbaugh                 +800

Eric Bieniemy                 +900

Bill O’Brien                       +1100

Kliff Kingsbury                  +1600

Joe Brady                         +2500

Brian Johnson                  +2500

Dan Quinn                        +2800