THE DAILY BRIEFING
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Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com is convinced that the suits at 410 Park Avenue see dollar signs with the possibility of neutral site conference championship games.
The Bengals justifiably have spent much of the past three weeks miffed at the treatment they received in the aftermath of the cancellation of their Week 17 game against the Bills, following Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin‘s on-field cardiac arrest. And that has given the Bengals even more of an edge, culminating in Sunday’s 27-10 road upset of the Bills.
The most recent surge of attitude came from the league’s decision to announce on Friday, for no apparent reason, the fact that Bills and Chiefs fans had purchased 50,000 tickets to a neutral-site conference championship in only 24 hours. It seemed irrelevant. It seemed immaterial. It seemed gratuitous.
But the league had a reason for doing it. The league is indeed contemplating the possibility of neutral-site conference championships, with the goal of capturing a big-game college football vibe — and also of making a crapload of extra money by selling the neutral-site games to the highest bidders.
The Bengals had a reason to be pissed off about it. And they clearly were. Quarterback Joe Burrow, in an on-field post-game interview, said to Tracy Wolfson of CBS, “Better send those refunds.”
In the future, refunds may not be necessary. In the future, neutral-site conference championships could become the norm.
It doesn’t matter whether we like it; more than 85 percent who responded to our recent Twitter poll on the subject didn’t. What matters is whether they’ll do it.
At a time when there are only so many ways to grow revenue without further increasing inventory, it’s an easy way to make more money. And so, once the league office can persuade at least 24 owners to go along with it, it’ll happen.
Sure, teams that play outdoors in cold-weather climates may never agree, especially if the neutral sites will skew toward places with good weather or none at all. The decision to take the hypothetical Bills-Chiefs game to Atlanta (the league’s third choice after Detroit and Indianapolis) suggests that the league wanted a dome, likely to best ensure that the offensive performances will be unaffected by the elements.
If that’s the case, if only Atlanta, Dallas, Las Vegas, Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, Houston, Phoenix, L.A., New Orleans, Detroit, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, and Santa Clara are the true options for neutral-site title games, that may not get enough votes. To get to 24, the league may have to include more cities in the eventual mix.
Maybe the league will need to make it a true rotation for all 32 teams, with the 16 AFC teams taking turns hosting the NFC Championship and the 16 NFC teams taking turns hosting the AFC Championship. Still, it would be one level of weird for Buffalo and Kansas City to play in Atlanta. It would be several levels of effin’ nutty for the Rams and Dolphins to meet at Lambeau Field.
If you look at Florio’s list, you will see 14 cities which presumably make up a Super Bowl rotation. That’s a long time between Super Bowls, if that’s the only game in play. And we can think of some other sites that would be good secondary big-game markets – Charlotte, Nashville, Denver, New Jersey, Seattle, Philadelphia, the new Chicago stadium – if you took “cold weather” out of the equation.
So that covers 23 teams in 21 stadiums.
Who is left? Buffalo, New England, Washington (but with a new stadium and owner it would be just fine), Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Kansas City.
Of the top of our head, we question hotel availability in Buffalo and Green Bay, maybe some others, but something like this is what Florio is talking about.
SB AFC NFC
2024 Las Vegas Detroit Denver
2025 New Orleans Philadelphia Indianapolis
2026 Dallas Santa Clara New Jersey
2027 Miami Minneapolis Nashville
2028 Atlanta Charlotte Houston
2029 Los Angeles Seattle Kansas City
2030 Arizona Chicago Pittsburgh
2031 Tampa Detroit Indianapolis
2032 Las Vegas New Jersey Cleveland
The “best” Super Bowl sites are on a shorter rotation while the others that sort of work – Santa Clara, Detroit – get championship games. And new Super Bowl sites – like Chicago with the new stadium or Nashville – get test runs.
We understand, the fans won’t get that home stadium going to the Super Bowl feel.
But with the site known in advance, the preparation for the game including signage and halftime acts could be settled and put to bed.
The College Football Playoff has no problem sending fans from one game in Atlanta to a finale in Los Angeles – or whatever without “home” stadiums. The NFL must have taken note.
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NFC EAST
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DALLAS
Like many of us, Kalyn Kahler of The Athletic can’t get over the wasted final minutes and disastrous last play:
Last season at least the plays leading up to the game-ending disaster were smart calls that took the Cowboys receivers immediately out of bounds to stop the clock. This season, the entire final drive was a mess, and by my own generous count Dallas wasted 23 seconds from their final punt and their final drive, enough time for about four more plays.
“I really don’t want to get into detail on it, but that obviously wasn’t the plan,” McCarthy said after the game, declining to elaborate on what was supposed to happen on the last play.
If he won’t elaborate, then let’s review this drive together. I have a long list of questions, and I am not in Dallas today to ask any of them, so I’m just going to leave them here for you to ponder.
Why was the punt team not ready? Or, why not go for it?
On third and 10, Prescott was sacked with 2:45 on the clock. Dallas was down seven points, yet for some reason, it took McCarthy 10 seconds to motion the offense off the field with all of the urgency of a DMV employee who hates his job. That hesitation on punting or going for it (and he should have gone for it) was costly, and judging by the time it took to switch units, it doesn’t seem like anything was communicated to players before the third down play.
The punt unit was finally in position by 2:20, and took another eight seconds to get the snap off at 2:12 (The Niners were also slow in organizing their players for the punt, which meant it took even longer for the officials to allow Dallas to punt). The Niners fair caught the punt at 2:05. That’s 40 seconds to complete a punt in a situation when Dallas needed to preserve as much time as possible, what NFL teams call a quick punt scenario.
After asking a few people around the league today, I’ve learned that an offense and special teams that regularly practice these quick punt situations would aim to do this exchange in the mid-20-second range, and the best teams could do it in as quick as 22 seconds. At best, the Cowboys wasted 10 seconds on indecision and poor organization and at worst, 15 seconds, and if you figure five seconds per play, that’s at least two more offensive plays.
Why is it so hard to properly get out of bounds?
We can’t discuss Dallas’s final play yet because we need to talk about another waste of time on the Cowboys’ final drive. On third-and-1 at their own 15 yard line, Prescott passed to tight end Dalton Schultz, who was hit by Niners cornerback Charvarius Ward as he went out of bounds. The contact made Schultz take a step backward along the sideline. The clock didn’t stop in this situation because the officials determined he wasn’t moving forward when going out of bounds, which is required to stop the clock. Fox Sports color analyst Greg Olsen said, “You have to be going forwards if you are contacted going out of bounds. You have to fight through that contact!”
“That was absolutely correct and great awareness by the Niners,” said an analytics staffer for another team, who was not authorized to speak on the record. “Needs to have urgency to move forward at the end to ensure that they stop the clock.”
“Charvarius Ward,” Olsen said. “He knows the rule, they coach that, you’ve got to turn up and be physical into contact and get that official to stop the clock.”
To be fair to Schultz, he’d played an entire game up to this point and was likely exhausted, and his hustle back to the near hash after going out of bounds suggests both that he knew this rule and he knew the officials kept the clock running. But the Niners’ awareness in this situation and Schultz’ lack of pushback is an example of the importance of coaching up the tiny details that matter in two-minute situations.
Schultz went out of bounds with 27 seconds left, and Dallas snapped the ball on the next play with about 19 seconds left, meaning they lost eight seconds on this error. Schultz’ lack of awareness here points to bad coaching. The best teams want to make sure their players know every rule that relates to the game clock and remind them of the rules frequently, because that knowledge is crucial for success in any two-minute drill.
Where was the urgency and football IQ on this drive?
On the next play, Schultz caught another pass, this one for 15 yards, but didn’t get his right foot inbounds after making the catch. The officials reviewed the play and ruled it incomplete. This is basic football 101, and without a defender anywhere near him, the play looked like a total brain fart.
On the Niners’ punt that gave Dallas the ball back to start their final possession, Dallas punt returner Kavontae Turpin signaled for a fair catch at the 6. He was likely coached to do this to stop the clock as soon as possible, but he had space in front of him to advance the ball and probably should have taken the yards. And if he hadn’t caught the punt at all, it looked like it might have bounced into the end zone.
Why didn’t Dallas change its final play when the Niners took a timeout after seeing the look?
“It appears that Zeke is going to go to center,” Olsen said as Dallas sent its offensive linemen out wide for what would be the Cowboys’ last shot in this game. “This looks like my flag football team. Obviously Mike McCarthy has been working on his end of game scenario, and let’s see what he’s got!”
As soon Olsen spoke that last line, you and I both knew there was no way this was going to end well. After seeing the strange look from Dallas, the Niners immediately called their final timeout to get their defense in position. This is typically where a functional offense would change up the play to catch the defense off guard. There are obviously only so many third-and-10 plays for a team to have a chance to score from its own 24-yard-line with six seconds left, but Dallas went back into the exact same look it had already given the Niners, with Elliott at center, totally alone, and the linemen out wide.
Why was Ezekiel Elliott at center? Why didn’t the offensive linemen out wide show any sense of hustle when the ball was thrown? Why did Prescott stare down his receiver so blatantly? Why not try a quick 20-yard pass out of bounds into Hail Mary range? Why? Why? Why?
The formation was legal because the NFL rulebook says there have to be at least seven players on the line of scrimmage, so it’s perfectly OK to move your offensive linemen out wide as long as there are eligible receivers at the end of both sides of the line. From left to right, Dallas had receiver T.Y. Hilton, left tackle Tyler Smith, left guard Connor McGovern, running back Ezekiel Elliott, right guard Zack Martin, right tackle Tyron Smith and receiver Noah Brown.
Dallas had Elliott in for center Tyler Biadasz, likely so that he could serve as a speedy lateral option himself after Prescott threw the first pass, but that would only work if he stayed on his feet. Maybe Dallas thought the Niners pass rush would go around Elliott instead of directly through him?
Per NFL rules, ineligible receivers cannot move more than a yard past the line of scrimmage before the ball is thrown, but even then, these linemen were hardly moving with any intention. It looked like they even knew that this play was going absolutely nowhere.
Prescott stared down Turpin well before he threw the ball, and the Niners read it perfectly to stop this play after just three seconds. I can see where McCarthy and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore were going with this play. Get the ball to Turpin, have him throw a lateral with all the linemen out to block it up nice. And the Cowboys have had some success with lateraling in the McCarthy era. Last year against the Chargers, the Cowboys ran a 49-yard play with three seconds left in the first half that was two yards shy of scoring. CeeDee Lamb caught a six-yard pass at the 45 yard line and took it across the field all the way to the 15, where he lateraled to Elliott on his right wing. But that play wasn’t so obviously going to be a lateral play, and it actually featured an offensive line in its correct positions protecting the quarterback.
Which brings me to my final question.
Has anyone ever seen a play like this before?
“Never,” texted one former head coach and offensive coordinator when I sent him that question with the video clip.
After the game, Dallas owner Jerry Jones told reporters,“We’re sick. Sick. Just sick.”
Jones also said the loss changes nothing about McCarthy’s job status. If that’s true, I really hope McCarthy spends as much time thinking about this play and the final drive as I will certainly will be in the next year.
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NEW YORK GIANTS
GM Joe Schoen sounds like QB DANIEL JONES will be back in 2023, even if tagged. And Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com doesn’t hear the same assurances about RB SAQUON BARKLEY:
The New York Giants plan on moving forward with Daniel Jones as their starting quarterback, general manager Joe Schoen said at his end-of-season news conference. It will simply be a matter of how they get there.
Jones, 25, is a free agent at the end of the season. The Giants plan to negotiate a long-term deal with him, or they have the franchise tag at their disposal.
“We’d like Daniel to be here. He said it [Sunday], there is a business side to it. But we feel like Daniel played well this season. He’s done everything we’ve asked him to. … We would like to have Daniel Jones back.”
There was no reason to hold back on their plan at quarterback this offseason. This less than a year after the Giants declined to exercise the fifth-year option on his rookie contract.
It put Jones in a prove-it year under the new regime of Schoen and coach Brian Daboll. All he did was win them over by putting together the best season of his career, reaching the playoffs and winning a postseason game in his first try.
It won over his bosses, who will now build a team around the quarterback who was drafted sixth overall in 2019.
“We’re happy Daniel is going to be here. We’re happy he’s going to be here,” Schoen said. “Hopefully we can get something done with his representatives. That would be the goal, to build a team around him where he could lead us to win a Super Bowl.”
The franchise tag for a quarterback based off a projected salary cap of $220 million is $31.7 million.
Talks are expected to occur over the next month; the franchise tag deadline is March 7.
“It takes two. Both sides are going to have that conversation,” Schoen said. “We haven’t crossed that bridge yet. There are tools at our disposal.”
Jones said the day after a 38-7 playoff loss to the Eagles that he wanted to return. With both parties having similar goals, it seems a pretty sure bet it will eventually happen.
“I really enjoyed my time here, and I want to be here,” Jones said. “I think there’s a business side of it all, and a lot of that I can’t control. I have love and respect for this organization and ownership and the guys in this locker room. “So I’d love to be here. I really enjoyed being here, and we’ll see how it all works out.”
Jones threw for 3,205 yards and completed 67.2% of his passes this season. He had 15 touchdown passes and five interceptions, but also ran for another 708 yards and seven touchdowns.
One by one he checked off all the boxes. The turnovers, which were once his biggest problem, became a strength. Jones had just nine turnovers in 18 starts this season, including the playoffs.
He also remained healthy for the duration of the season. It was the first time in Jones’ four-year career that he didn’t miss games because of injury. He also consistently made clutch plays in big spots throughout a season where the Giants won 10 games by one score or less.
“I don’t know if there was necessarily an aha moment or anything like that,” Schoen said. “We’ve just been continually evaluating throughout the season and what the coaches asked him to do. He’s executing the game plans. … I don’t know the exact date or time where we’re like Daniel’s our guy, but we’re pleased with how he’s played this season.”
The Giants seemed less optimistic about running back Saquon Barkley. While Schoen expressed a desire for him to return, it did not seem nearly as big a priority.
Barkley had said the previous day he was not insistent on resetting the running back market, where San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey averages $16 million per season.
The franchise tag for a running back is likely to come in at $9.9 million.
“Listen, Saquon’s done everything we’ve asked him to do and he’s a good football player,” Schoen said. “Again, the positional value, we’ll get into how we want to build this team and allocate our resources. That is what it comes down to.
“Again, he’s a good football player. He was durable for this year. He played well and, again, he’s a guy we would like to have back.”
But Jones appears at the top of that list.
OC Mike Kafka can now be hired this week (like Dan Quinn and Kellen Moore of the Cowboys). Kafka is interviewing up a storm. Joel Erickson of the Indianapolis Star:
Mike Kafka’s spent most of the past two weeks deflecting any talk about his head coaching prospects, repeatedly saying his sole focus has been on the Giants’ playoff chances.
Kafka has time to focus on his potential future on Sunday, interviewing with the Colts and reportedly the Carolina Panthers. Houston’s also interested.
The former Northwestern quarterback, still only 35 years old, is the youngest candidate in the extensive group of interviews Indianapolis has conducted, but it’s also easy to see why he’s become a hot commodity.
Kafka’s got the right mentor in Andy Reid.
And the way he’s helped Brian Daboll find answers for New York’s offense this season shows the kind of ingenuity that teams have been trying to find for years, routinely going back to what seems like an endless supply of young, talented offensive coordinators.
The ingenuity that convinced Daboll to not only hire Kafka last offseason, but also that the former Chiefs staffer was the right man to handle play-calling duties, even though Reid handles those responsibilities in Kansas City and Daboll had a long history as a play-caller in his days as an offensive coordinator.
“It was a part of the interview process, where he wanted his offensive coordinator to call the plays,” Kafka said when the decision was finalized in September.
Kafka’s history in Kansas City likely plays a key role in the Colts’ interest in the young offensive coordinator.
Ballard learned a lot from Reid during the four seasons he spent with the Chiefs, and he’s long respected Reid’s ability to develop coaches — Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is also among the 14 candidates the Colts have targeted to interview for the head coaching position.
Reid is the biggest reason Kafka’s already in this position.
Kafka spent two of his five seasons in the NFL as a backup quarterback on Reid’s Eagles rosters, and the Chiefs coach plucked him away from a graduate assistant’s position at Northwestern after just one season to become an offensive quality control coach in Kansas City in 2017.
Kafka’s rise after that decision was swift.
Kansas City drafted Patrick Mahomes in 2017, and Kafka became the Chiefs quarterbacks coach as Mahomes ascended to the full-time starting role a year later and took the NFL by storm. The pair spent the next four seasons working together.
For a quarterback-needy team like the Colts, a team likely getting ready to draft and develop a first-round quarterback to be its franchise passer, Kafka’s experience with Mahomes is a good enough reason to bring the Giants offensive coordinator for an interview.
But Kafka’s season in New York is a different kind of experience, evidence that the young coordinator knows how to unlock the abilities of a quarterback who doesn’t have the otherworldly passing ability of Mahomes, the NFL’s best quarterback.
Working with Daboll, the Giants rebuilt their offense this season, tailoring it to the dual-threat abilities of Jones, and the young quarterback played some of his best football down the stretch, most notably in New York’s playoff win over the Giants.
Building a relationship with quarterbacks, or any player, for that matter, comes down to authenticity for Kafka.
“Coaching, playing, I think that it’s important to show your personality, and I think you have to be you whenever you’re trying to give a message,” Kafka said.
Known for being calm and steady, Kafka believes his disposition is perfect for the NFL, a place where distractions are constantly flying.
“Football can be chaotic at times,” Kafka told reporters in New York this week. “Being in that demeanor allows me to problem solve, think clearly and get the guys the right information. … That’s really all the players want is an answer.”
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WASHINGTON
The 15-year-old who shot RB BRIAN ROBINSON confesses to a murder besides shooting Robinson. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
A teenager has pleaded guilty to shooting Commanders running back Brian Robinson in August, and to the killing of a 15-year-old boy in Washington, D.C., weeks later.
The teenage shooter, whose name has not been released, was only 14 at the time he shot Robinson. He admitted in court on Monday that he and a 17-year-old friend decided to carjack Robinson and that when Robinson and the 17-year-old struggled, the 14-year-old shot Robinson twice, once in the knee and once in the hip.
Robinson was injured but the bullets did not do significant damage, and he was back on the field by Week Five.
Weeks after Robinson was shot, a 15-year-old boy named Andre Robertson was shot and killed while sitting on a relative’s porch. The teenage boy who shot Robinson has now pleaded guilty to voluntary manslaughter in that case, according to the Washington Post.
The boy, who has since turned 15, is in the custody of the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services and will be sentenced on March 8.
Interesting to see what the sentence is for the anonymous killer.
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NFC SOUTH
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TAMPA BAY
QB TOM BRADY implies that anyone who says they know what he’s going to do – doesn’t. Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times:
That persistent question came up again, this time during Tom Brady’s weekly Let’s Go! podcast.
When asked Monday if he had a timetable for deciding what he wanted to do about his football career, the 45-year-old quarterback didn’t use the R word, as in retirement. But his response was R-rated. A few expletives later, he arrived at, “I’m taking it a day at a time.”
Co-host Jim Gray said it sounded like Brady was antagonized by the question. “It’s only the question everybody wants to hear,” Gray said.
“I appreciate you asking. Thank you,” Brady said.
Then both Brady and Gray laughed, but that was the end of the discussion about his future.
At present, Brady said he is trying to “decompress” from the long NFL season, which ended for the Bucs’ (8-10) after a 31-14 loss to the Cowboys in the wild-card round. He said he has been spending time with his children and family, but has not thrown a football since the Jan. 16 loss.
“There’s a lot of decompression,” he said. “I know we use that word a lot but there is a real crash-landing element to all of this. And doing it for as long as I have, there’s no soft landing, either. It ends and it’s over and as much as you’d love for something to be a little softer on the way out, that’s just not the reality.”
Brady spoke about the Bucs’ up-and-down season that culminated with a poor performance against the Cowboys. On Sunday, he watched Dallas lose to the 49ers.
He noted that the teams that have played the best all season in the biggest games are the ones still standing: the 49ers, Eagles, Chiefs and Bengals.
“Our team didn’t play the best that often and it was very rare for us, unfortunately,” he said. “We just couldn’t figure out a way to improve our situation. You lose to a team like Dallas, Dallas goes to San Fran (Sunday). They got beat solidly. It wasn’t a runaway by any means, but San Fran was basically in the lead the whole game. It’s tough to win. You’ve got to do a lot of things right.”
Brady said one of the things he took away from the 2022 Bucs season was resiliency. He noted that learning how to cope with failure is one of the lessons he is teaching his three kids.
Brady said he is just catching up with all the things he missed during the season.
“Right now, I’m just literally thinking about my kids and just kind of hanging with them and getting them organized,” he said. “There’s a lot of things you put off during football season. Coach (Bill) Belichick always had a great analogy. He said, ‘Put it in the drawer.’ And finally, you open that drawer at the end of the season and you realize all the things you put in that drawer so it takes you a few weeks to dig your way out of it.”
Another thing that has Brady annoyed is the $16,444 fine he received from the NFL for attempting to trip Cowboys safety Malik Hooker in the playoff loss. Center Ryan Jensen, who made his only appearance of the season in that game, was fined $8,333.33 for unnecessary roughness on the same play.
Brady said he is appealing.
“I tried to tackle him with my right shoulder and missed him. I wasn’t going to try and stick my arm out so I was trying to get him on the ground and I missed him completely. I didn’t even hit him,” Brady said. “I tried to trip him but I didn’t. I don’t know how you can get fined for something that didn’t even happen. Are they fining intention? It’s like targeting and you miss the person you’re (trying to) hit and they still call it targeting.
“So I’ve got to … try to understand why this is the case.”
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NFC WEST
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ARIZONA
The Cardinals have interviewed many, many candidates. And now, they interview Sean Payton who apparently will not be finalizing any deal until Thursday (keeping other teams like the Broncos and Panthers in suspense). Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
Add the Cardinals to the list of potential suitors for Sean Payton.
Payton will interview with the Cardinals on Thursday, according to multiple reports.
A Super Bowl-winning coach with the Saints who took the last year off, Payton is considered the highest-profile candidate in this year’s coaching carousel. Payton is also a candidate for the Texans, Panthers and Broncos jobs.
The long list of Cardinals coaching candidates also includes Ejiro Evero, Brian Flores, Aaron Glenn, Vance Joseph, Dan Quinn, Frank Reich and DeMeco Ryans.
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SAN FRANCISCO
Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com reports that QB BROCK PURDY will be the 5throokie to start a championship game. The first four went 0-4.
Eight weeks after he ascended to the top of the depth chart at the position, Purdy now has a chance to do something that’s never been done. No rookie quarterback has ever won a Super Bowl.
Purdy will become only the fifth rookie quarterback to start a conference championship game.
Bucs rookie Shaun King lost to the Rams 11-6 in the NFC Championship Game in 1999; Steelers rookie Ben Roethlisberger lost to the Patriots 41-27 in the AFC Championship Game in 2004; Ravens rookie Joe Flacco lost to the Steelers 23-14 in the AFC Championship Game in 2008; and Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez lost to the Colts 30-17 in the AFC Championship Game in 2009.
“Right now, I’m still focused in a sense with just the game and what we could have done to be better,” Purdy said after Sunday’s divisional round victory over the Cowboys. “But yeah, it’s pretty cool to see the clock at zero, and then you see the Niners over the Cowboys. That’s pretty sweet in the playoffs. So definitely, credit to the coaching staff in getting us right all week. Defense, offense, special teams, everyone just playing. It takes everybody, not just one person or a couple guys. It literally takes everybody.
“I’m just so proud of the team and playoff football is not easy, so to go and pull off a win like that against a great team like Dallas, and now going to the NFC Championship, it means a lot to us and for myself. Yeah, when I take a step back, it’s pretty cool. Very thankful.”
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AFC WEST
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KANSAS CITY
It sounds like we will see some version of QB PATRICK MAHOMES on Sunday. Shanna McCarriston of CBSSports.com:
Following the weekend’s action, head coach Andy Reid confirmed to reporters Monday that Mahomes does indeed have a high-ankle sprain, adding that he’s “doing OK” and “working hard on the treatment.” Reid also noted that he wants to wait and see how Mahomes is feeling before determining the amount of reps he’ll receive throughout the week of practice.
Reid also noted that Mahomes’ ankle injury is not as severe as the one Mahomes suffered in Week 1 of the 2019 season, also against Jacksonville. That has to be music to the ears of Chiefs fans, especially considering that a week after that 2019 injury, he torched the Raiders to the tune of 30-for-44 passing, 443 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Bill Barnwell on what faces the Chiefs is QB PATRICK MAHOMES remains relatively immobile on Sunday vs. Cincinnati:
The same thing will not be true against the Bengals, who suffocated the Chiefs’ stars during Cincinnati’s second-half comeback a year ago. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo sprung the comeback with an unlikely trap by resorting to a three-man rush and dropping eight into coverage. Getting extra men into the second and third levels allowed the Bengals to spy Mahomes as a scrambler and double both Tyreek Hill and Kelce at times. Kelce had four catches for 40 yards after halftime.
Instead, the Chiefs likely will need more out of the other receivers on their roster. A Chiefs team chastened by its failure against the Bengals might have made a conscious choice to add in bulk by swapping out Hill for myriad replacements in JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney, but none of those players has been consistently impactful this season. Those wideouts are going to need to win one-on-one, and Mahomes is going to need to find them for big plays.
If we assume Mahomes looks next week essentially like the player we saw in the second half Saturday, the Chiefs will have to adapt. They’ll have a week to prepare, but they can’t count on Kelce getting open for 14 catches again. Tre Flowers, Cincinnati’s preferred defender against Kelce, missed the win over the Bills because of a hamstring injury. Andy Reid’s ability to game-plan is legendary, but the margin for error the Chiefs normally enjoy with Mahomes just disappeared.
One way they adapted after Mahomes’ injury was by running the ball, with Isiah Pacheco rushing 12 times for 95 yards. The performance wasn’t quite as impressive as it might have seemed, however, as the Chiefs stayed ahead of schedule on only 36.7% of their attempts and generated a middling 1.3 expected points added (EPA) on rushes, their seventh-best performance of the season on the ground. The Chiefs were loath to run against light boxes during that second half in the AFC Championship Game a year ago, but they can’t make that same mistake again in the rematch.
Kansas City already was one of the league’s worst teams on third-and-short, and those conversions will be an even bigger concern now. Mahomes isn’t used on sneaks, but the Chiefs literally began this game with a speed option between him and Pacheco, a concept Reid has pulled out in short-yardage situations before. Mahomes’ prior postseason injury — a concussion suffered against the Browns in the 2020 playoffs — also came on a third-and-1 speed option. If Mahomes isn’t mobile enough to boot or run play-action, defenses will find it much easier to key on what this offense is doing.
On the other hand, Kansas City has the league’s best offense at managing third-and-long, converting a staggering 47.6% of the time in the 8-to-12-yard range this season. The league average this season was 27.6%, and just three offenses over the previous 15 years had a better percentage. Mahomes’ ability to scramble and extend plays helped key that success; he averaged a league-high 3.7 seconds before passing in those situations. If he isn’t able to do that, the Chiefs might be compromised on both third-and-short and third-and-long.
Naturally, if the offense isn’t as effective, the other elements of the roster need to pick up the slack. The defense struggled to stop the run and was bailed out by a drop on what should have been a long touchdown pass to Christian Kirk and a Jamal Agnew fumble inside the 5-yard line. At the same time, Trevor Lawrence averaged just 5.6 yards per attempt, and a free pressure led to a game-sealing interception from rookie corner Jaylen Watson. They’ll have a tough day ahead against Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
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AFC EAST
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BUFFALO
WR STEFON DIGGS took some digs from media types for his surly postgame demeanor on Sunday. Alaina Getzenberg of ESPN.com:
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs’ frustrations with the outcome of the team’s divisional round playoff game were visible Sunday on the sideline and after the game, and on Monday night, Diggs shared some of his thoughts on Twitter.
“Want me to be okay with losing ? Nah,” Diggs tweeted. “Want me to be okay with our level of play when it’s not up to the standard ? Nah.” In a third tweet, Diggs said, “It’s easy to criticize my reaction more than the result.”
Diggs was shown on the TV broadcast midway through the fourth quarter of Buffalo’s 27-10 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals with his arms outstretched seemingly saying things in the direction of quarterback Josh Allen as the Bills were limited to a season low in points.
After the game, Diggs initially moved toward leaving the stadium with his things before some coaches had an opportunity to get to the locker room, but practice squad running back Duke Johnson stopped and talked to him and Diggs went briefly back to the locker room.
“Just knowing that [Diggs] was in an emotional state, it’s not who he is, it’s not what he’s about,” Johnson said on Monday. “He just in an emotional state, so don’t want emotional decision to affect him in the long term, so I thought it was best that he just be a part of whatever was going on in the locker room at the time.”
Diggs left soon after, in addition to multiple other Bills players departing quickly, and was present for Sean McDermott’s comments to the team, per the Buffalo coach.
Diggs was not available during the team’s locker room cleanout Monday. McDermott said that he did speak to Diggs the day after the game, but the coach kept the details between them.
“Stef’s a highly competitive individual, as we all know, and that’s part of the reason why we all love him,” McDermott said. “And he’s frustrated, like we all are. He was in today, and he and I spoke, and I’ll leave it at that.”
Johnson said he thinks Diggs deserves more credit for deciding to return to the locker room Sunday.
“Diggs didn’t have to listen to me. Diggs didn’t have to, he didn’t have to go back in there, but he chose to, because he also knew at that moment he was just upset,” Johnson said. “So, I think it’s a lot of credit to him, as well, just because, again, he didn’t have to. He could have told me to … you feel me? So, at the end of the day, again, he’s emotional, it was a big, big step for him, and I appreciate him more than he know[s] for actually listening and going back in the locker room.”
Diggs was far from alone in his frustration after an emotional season came to an end. The Bills’ loss to the Bengals stung throughout the organization, with many players searching for answers after a third straight year of coming up short of advancing to the Super Bowl.
“I’ll ask [what is it going to take to get over the hump] just like you asking that question,” wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie said. “I really don’t know, ’cause everything — we got the players, we got the coaches, we got everything we wanted. We’re winning football games when we need to win them during the season, and then we get to the playoffs, it’s just like, it’s not there, and I’m still not understanding that.”
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NEW ENGLAND
After some interesting outside interviews, the Patriots hire someone steeped in The Patriot Way to be OC. Chris Mason of MassLive.com:
The Patriots have landed their “primary target.”
After a rudderless season for Mac Jones and company, the Bill Belichick has hired old friend Bill O’Brien as his new offensive coordinator, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
The former Texans coach spent 2007-2011 in New England, rising from a general offensive assistant to offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. He’s also been the head coach at Penn State and was most recently calling plays for Nick Saban At Alabama.
O’Brien fills a desperate need on Belichick’s offensive staff. In 2022, the Patriots tried to piece things together with Matt Patricia as play-caller and Joe Judge at quarterbacks coach. The results weren’t good. Mac Jones regressed and the offense took a step back in every meaningful category; it was a far cry from 2021 with Josh McDaniels at the helm.
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O’Brien should be a fascinating fit as the Patriots look to get Jones back on track. After a Week 13 loss to the Bills that saw Jones blow up at the sideline, the quarterback expressed a desire for tougher coaching.
“It’s accountability. It starts with me. I think I want to be coached harder,” Jones said.
With O’Brien, he’ll certainly get that.
During the fiery offensive coordinator’s last run in Foxborough, Tom Brady and Brian Hoyer nicknamed him “the teapot” because he was so prone to boiling over. It got to the point that the quarterbacks brought in an actual tea kettle and began documenting the outbursts on it.
“Basically, any time we felt it was justified, we’d put it on the teapot like it was the Stanley Cup,” Hoyer said. “I brought a teapot in one day. Tom and I thought it would be funny to just keep adding to the story. At a certain point, I started writing them down in my notebook. Finally, when we brought the teapot in, we started wrapping them around and eventually it was pretty full.”
In his first season, Jones completed 67.6% of his passes for 3,801 yards, threw 22 touchdowns to 13 interceptions, and finished second to Ja’Marr Chase in the AP Rookie of the Year voting. Leading the Patriots to a playoff berth, Jones’ first taste of NFL life was an unmitigated success.
But he took a step back in every one of those categories in Year 2. With a 65.2% completion percentage, Jones didn’t hit the 3,000 yard mark and threw 14 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. The Patriots missed the playoffs and there was a mild quarterback controversy with Bailey Zappe. It got ugly.
Back in capable hands, O’Brien will be tasked with getting Jones rebooted.
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THIS AND THAT
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RANKING THE OPENINGS
We are two weeks after the end of the season, and none of the coaching openings are filled – perhaps because Sean Payton is the one who well put the others in motion when he decides his fate.
With the help of his army of anonymous execs, Mike Sando of The Athletic ranks the five openings – with perhaps a surprise at number one:
Five NFL teams remain without head coaches more than two weeks after the 2022 regular season concluded.
Jim Harbaugh has come and gone as a candidate. Sean Payton remains prominently in the mix. Dan Quinn and Mike Kafka became available for hire after their teams lost in the playoffs this past weekend. Shane Steichen, Jonathan Gannon, DeMeco Ryans, Brian Callahan and Eric Bieniemy have also interviewed for head coaching jobs, but still have work to do after their teams advanced to the championship round.
So many other candidates are waiting for the first domino to fall.
With the hiring cycle poised to accelerate, this edition of the Pick Six column ranks the five openings by how much they should appeal to candidates. Ownership, quarterbacks and draft capital aren’t the only considerations in evaluating the Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts.
Those five teams combined to finish 23-60-2 (.282) last season. Three do not have long-term quarterbacks. The other two might wish they enjoyed that kind of flexibility after entering into regrettable deals at the position. Which job stands above the rest?
1. The Panthers and Texans emerged as most attractive openings in conversations with coaches and executives. Those teams are in better position than the others to land the quarterbacks they want.
The teams seeking head coaches are owned by the heirs to Bill Bidwill (Cardinals), Robert Irsay (Colts) and Bob McNair (Texans), an heir to the Walton retailing fortune (Broncos) and a hedge fund manager (Panthers).
Alas, for the 53rd time in the past 54 offseasons, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Rooney family is not seeking a head coach.
“You can have the most money in the league, but if you have the least amount of football experience, that might not work,” a longtime exec with experience on multiple teams said on the condition of anonymity for competitive reasons. “If you are the Rooneys, you can have almost the least amount of money in the league and the most amount of football experience, and it works really good. But if you are the Bears, you’ve got the least amount of money, the most amount of football experience and you struggle on the field, struggle to get the stadium built, those things.
“What the Steelers do is really simple, and few have the patience or the fortitude to copy it. They are going to hire people with good virtues, good traits, and not change them. Baltimore has come closer than most in trying to copy it.”
We’ll rank the five openings after sizing up what each has to offer through a few quick tables.
Not long ago, the teams with Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray under contract might be seen as the most desirable. Now those players contracts outweigh their expected production while limiting options.
Carolina Panthers Tepper Fitterer TBD
Houston Texans McNair Caserio TBD
Indianapolis Colts Irsay Ballard TBD
Denver Broncos Walton Paton Wilson
Arizona Cardinals Bidwill Ossenfort Murray
The Texans with a clear advantage in draft capital and the most projected space under the salary cap.
Houston owns the second pick in the draft. Arizona (third) and Indianapolis (fourth) also pick in the top five. Carolina picks ninth. Denver holds no picks until the 29th slot, acquired from Miami for Bradley Chubb.
Now, for the rankings, with quick thoughts from an NFL exec who saw the order similarly, followed by additional thoughts. The ability to land a quarterback and ownership’s willingness to spend are prioritized. The first two could be interchangeable.
• 1. Houston Texans: “They are first due to the assets they got from the Deshaun Watson trade. The next coach should enjoy stability after back-to-back one-and-done situations. The AFC South remains a winnable division. They have some nice young pieces from this past draft in (safety) Jalen Pitre, (running back) Dameon Pierce and (cornerback) Derek Stingley.”
General manager Nick Caserio’s interest in a game-management role downgrades the Texans for some, as much for what it symbolizes as for the actual involvement itself. Beyond that, how many coaches without Caserio’s shared ties to New England will be lining up to join him after what David Culley and Lovie Smith endured? Do the Texans need someone with the Patriots in their DNA? That said, the next coach might enjoy a decent runway after the last two were barely cleared for takeoff.
The owner, Cal McNair, adds little beyond a general willingness to spend, but he doesn’t seem to be a meddler in football operations, which means if the right people are in the coach/GM roles, the team should be able to succeed. Houston owns five of the top 73 picks in the draft, including the second and 12th choices.
• 2. Carolina Panthers: “The Panthers have the best young roster of the group. Put them right behind Houston since Houston has a clearer path towards landing a franchise quarterback with all that draft capital. That division is winnable. (David) Tepper should give you everything you need to succeed if he doesn’t meddle.”
That last part about meddling is a concern for some, but Tepper hasn’t come close to entering the Irsay Zone. Tepper also appears desperate to win, which cannot be taken for granted among owners in a business that produces fat profit margins regardless. Tepper’s willingness to spend — and overspend, as the case seemed to be with former coach Matt Rhule — is seen as a plus. But it’s not the most important thing for long-term success, as the Rooneys have demonstrated.
The Panthers’ GM, Scott Fitterer, seems like an agreeable partner for an incoming coach. He worked with Rhule and was in Seattle with another power coach in Pete Carroll. It’s the young talent and decent draft capital (additional second-round pick) that make Carolina intriguing. The Panthers, unlike the others seeking head coaches, actually played good football for a significant stretch last season as well. That should not be overlooked.
• 3. Indianapolis Colts: “Put Indy third with a winnable division and a solid roster that could bounce back if they hit on the head coach and quarterback. The owner needs to step back and let the football people operate.”
Irsay’s all-over-the-place behavior during a frustrating 2022 season raises questions about whether the organization can achieve the alignment needed to move forward coherently. The Colts do possess a top-five draft choice. They have had winning records until last season. They finally appear willing (and possibly able) to pursue a young quarterback. But it’s easy to make a case for dropping the Colts lower on this list after watching Irsay undercut former coach Frank Reich and current GM Chris Ballard. At least there is no long-term commitment to an underperforming quarterback.
• 4. Denver Broncos: “Denver has the best tradition, and the new owners seem aggressive and willing to spend, but I think Wilson is washed, and the lack of draft capital is holding them back. The defense is very good, but Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert aren’t going anywhere in that division.”
Move up the Broncos if you think the next coach can salvage Wilson at age 34. The Walmart money is a draw, and leadership did say the next coach could report directly to ownership. But there is no getting around the massive long-term extension with Wilson and the diminished draft capital.
Wilson’s production decline dates to the 2020 season, spanning multiple coaches and systems. His athleticism has diminished. The drama that followed Wilson through his final days in Seattle and through his first season in Denver further downgrades the appeal for candidates.
Wilson does seem to be a diligent worker, at least. That could separate him from Arizona’s Murray, whose contract was notorious for the “homework clause” included in the initial version.
• 5. Arizona Cardinals: “Arizona has an older roster and the Kyler Murray contract/injury situation to deal with. I don’t know how much better Kyler can be. He might have hit his ceiling, and will always be limited by his size and unwillingness to stand in there and get hit.”
Though owner Michael Bidwill has in some ways raised the bar from where it once was for the franchise, some still see the organization as set in its ways, putting pressure on the head coach to will whatever changes need to be made.
Bidwill paired Steve Wilks with Josh Rosen and dumped both after one season. He tolerated former GM Steve Keim’s conviction for extreme DUI (defined as a blood alcohol content of .15 or more). He paired a losing college coach (Kliff Kingsbury) with the smallest quarterback in the league, extended their contracts and Keim’s contract, then fired Kingsbury and Keim less than a year later.
The new GM, Monti Ossenfort, would seem to be an agreeable partner, but there are easier situations for first-time GMs to walk into. The Murray predicament in particular could take time and skill to navigate.
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PREDICTING 2023
Like Mike Sando of The Athletic, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com says he has a bunch of NFL execs who will dish to him anonymously. Here they are making some 2023 predictions:
We asked a selection of top league executives to come with bold takes only. Here are some of the themes that emerged from those conversations:
If he plays, Tom Brady will sign with the Las Vegas Raiders
This one’s been telegraphed since the end of the season — it’s now the worst-kept secret that Las Vegas would have interest in signing Brady.
A few teams I’ve spoken to expect Brady to retire. But should he play, the Raiders believe they are one of about three teams that he would consider. Tampa Bay isn’t out of it yet, though Brady appeared to say his goodbyes to the media in his last news conference with the team following the playoff loss to Dallas.
“I just think with the weapons they have and the familiarity with Josh McDaniels’ offense and the people there, it would be a seamless transition for him,” a veteran AFC offensive coach said.
Lamar Jackson to … the Falcons?
People in the building in Owings Mills, Maryland, believe head coach John Harbaugh and general manager Eric DeCosta are sincere when they say publicly they are all-in on Lamar Jackson as a Raven, in both the short and long term. And some executives around the league believe the same thing.
But others are skeptical, foreseeing more roadblocks in contract negotiations that might never get cleared if Jackson persists in his demand for a fully guaranteed deal.
The Ravens don’t have any plans to let Jackson hit free agency, so the franchise tag is expected. The question is, which tag do they use? The exclusive franchise tag, which would pay Jackson around $45 million, allows the Ravens to retain his rights no matter what. They can still trade him and could control the terms. With a non-exclusive tag, which would pay between $30 million and $35 million, suitors can submit offer sheets under the stipulation that they must give up two first-round picks to acquire Jackson. Either way, the Ravens will probably receive offers. Teams I’ve talked to see the Jets and Dolphins as good fits who might have interest, but both have one big hang-up: They play in the AFC.
“I don’t think Baltimore wants to deal him in conference and have to see him on the field,” a high-ranking AFC exec said. If that leaves NFC teams, then multiple people believe the Falcons would make sense as a destination. General manager Terry Fontenot and head coach Arthur Smith have spent two years cleansing the roster and now have an estimated $56 million in cap space.
“Good running game, an offense that could be friendly to Lamar while helping him grow as a passer, big receivers with a catch radius, which he needs due to accuracy issues, young regime on an improving team looking for a quarterback solution,” an NFL scouting director said. “Not sure if that’s their plan, but it would make some sense.”
But a core question persists: Why would Baltimore move on from a quarterback with a 45-16 career record as a starter?
“They’ve built their entire offense around him, and I don’t see them rebuilding,” an AFC executive said.
Derek Carr will sign with the Texans
Nearly a dozen teams could be looking for a quarterback this offseason, beginning with the AFC South and the NFC South, where every team save Jacksonville appears to be in transition at the game’s most important position.
Carr will be coveted due to the league-wide demand, a situation that gives leverage to the Raiders, who must navigate Carr’s no-trade clause but will want to maximize value before Carr’s $40.4 million guarantee is due Feb. 15.
One veteran AFC coach points to Houston, where GM Nick Caserio has ties to Raiders GM Dave Ziegler, as a potential destination. Caserio and Ziegler have executed multiple trades in the past.
Yes, Houston could take a quarterback with the No. 2 pick in the draft, but it also has 11 picks, including two in the top 12. That’s plenty of ammunition to execute a deal.
“Nick will be looking for a high-character quarterback. That will be important to him,” the coach said. “Derek fits that mold.” And he’s got a natural tie to Houston — his brother, David, was the franchise’s first-ever pick in the NFL draft, No. 1 overall in 2002.
Aaron Rodgers will be a … Jet? A Colt?
It appeared Green Bay executed last year’s contract extension with Rodgers with the 2022 and 2023 seasons in mind. After 2023, the Packers will have paid Rodgers around $101 million on the deal, at which time they could walk away and save some cap space.
But things can change. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported over the weekend that the possibility of a deal for Rodgers after just one year on the new deal is “real.” Rodgers has publicly acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding his tenure. And Jordan Love, after three years playing behind Rodgers, is ready to play. It wouldn’t shock some teams around the league if Love requested a trade should Rodgers stay in Green Bay.
There are a lot of moving parts here, and many execs see Green Bay keeping Rodgers no matter what, but one thing is clear: Rodgers’ balloon payment, an option bonus of $58.3 million — which is guaranteed and set to be exercised between March 17 and Week 1 — must be addressed. Prospective teams must have the cap space to absorb that. Luckily for those teams, his option bonuses over the next two years prorate through 2026, leaving cap hits of around $15.75 million this year and $32.5 million the next ($48.3 million in total).
That leads us to … the Jets, who wouldn’t be on the list of teams I’d think Rodgers would be clamoring to join in his pursuit of a championship. But New York fans are starved for steady quarterback play, and maybe GM Joe Douglas will be, too.
Some people around the league can see it — assuming the Jets work on that cap deficit of nearly $3 million.
“That receiving corps is really talented and you know the defense is good,” an NFC coordinator said. “They have pieces and are trending up. They should be desperate to get a QB in my opinion.”
One NFC executive brought up an interesting team that’s sort of random but would make some sense on paper: Indianapolis. The Colts enter the offseason with $20.6 million in cap space. They absolutely need a quarterback. Despite a four-win season, the roster is not void of talent, especially on defense. And Indy owns the fourth overall pick, an easy dangling point in a potential deal with Green Bay.
“[Indianapolis general manager Chris] Ballard has to get one [a quarterback] and get it right,” the executive said. “Maybe they just draft one and save the money, but Rodgers would be different than their other past stopgap options because he’s more of a sure thing.”
Rams, Raiders will trade big names
Teams move off high-earning players for a variety of reasons, a reality the Rams and Raiders could prove over the next few months.
For Los Angeles, the reason is clear: The Rams are nearly $14 million over the salary cap and have six players with cap hits of $20-plus million. Two of those players, wide receiver Cooper Kupp ($27.8. million) and quarterback Matthew Stafford ($20 million), aren’t going anywhere. The other three — defensive tackle Aaron Donald ($26 million), cornerback Jalen Ramsey ($25.2 million) and pass-rusher Leonard Floyd ($22 million) — might be.
Restructuring a few contracts would get L.A. in palatable cap position, but after a five-win season, the Rams could revisit their top-heavy roster philosophy.
“[Ramsey] is one I think the Rams will at least explore [moving],” one AFC personnel director said. “He’s still a top guy, but the play has fallen off a little bit and [he] could use a change of scenery.”
Ramsey, 28, was the NFL’s No. 1 corner for two consecutive seasons in our summer executive polls. He would have a market.
Meanwhile in Vegas, I’ve talked to a few people around the league who expect head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler to continue aggressively tweaking the roster. McDaniels is big on “culture fits” and will want his own guys. Teams will be keeping an eye on tight end Darren Waller and wide receiver Hunter Renfrow in that process.
And, as mentioned above, the Raiders believe they are one of a handful of teams Tom Brady would consider should he decide to play football in 2023.
Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow will make $50-plus million per year
Herbert and Burrow are now eligible for extensions after completing their third regular seasons. They are under contract through 2023 along with a fifth-year option for 2024, which both teams will inevitably pick up.
The expectation is both players sign new deals that surpass Rodgers’ league-high average of $50.3 million per year.
The Bengals and Chargers aren’t known for their spending, and in big-money deals like this, teams must set aside all of the guaranteed money in escrow, which complicates matters. But both teams have taken care of homegrown talent in the past, with several key players on each side under long-term deals. And Burrow and Herbert — largely considered top-tier passers — take out most of the guesswork often present with long and costly contracts.
“Largely durable, great guys, great players — they will be expensive but this is an easy decision,” an NFL GM said.
DeAndre Hopkins to the Patriots? To the Ravens?
At age 30 with a $19.4 million base salary, Hopkins might not merit a first-round pick in return (like he probably did in 2020 when Houston shipped him to Arizona for a second-round pick and David Johnson). The Cardinals would be wise to eat some of the money to facilitate a deal.
Bill Belichick is a huge admirer of Hopkins’ game and needs a game-changing receiver in the worst way. He’s also one of the league’s most active traders.
Arizona is on the hook for Hopkins’ $11 million in prorated signing bonus.
“That would be interesting to pair Bill O’Brien with Hopkins if O’Brien ends up with the Patriots OC job,” an NFC exec said. “They might not be friendly. But they had success together with subpar quarterback play, so maybe it can work.”
Another team mentioned is Baltimore. In Hopkins, the Ravens would be getting a true vertical threat for Lamar Jackson, who many coaches say needs a rangy target. If Baltimore is serious about keeping Jackson, it’s time to get him more firepower on the outside.
Andy Reid steps away after a second Super Bowl title?
This one is hardly a slam dunk with Reid still dominating and Patrick Mahomes set to quarterback the Chiefs for the next decade.
But it’s worth noting that when people involved in the coaching carousel talk about jobs, they often ask whether Reid will walk away at some point in the short term.
Reid is 64, with the impressive distinction as the NFL’s only head coach with at least 10 playoff wins with multiple teams (Eagles, Chiefs). If Kansas City wins the next two games, Reid enters the exclusive club of coaches with multiple Super Bowl rings.
“I just think at some point he could make the life decision to walk away from the grind,” an AFC scout said. “I could at least see it.”
Lions, Browns break through
Detroit finished the 2022 season as one of the league’s hottest teams and brings back most of its offensive nucleus along with a defense brimming with young talent. A healthy sophomore season for Jameson Williams should only propel Jared Goff, who has built a strong rapport with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson.
A few people we spoke to floated Detroit as a divisional winner in 2023.
“I’m not completely sold on Jared Goff keeping up his play from this year, but if he can, there’s no reason why they can’t do some damage in the playoffs,” an NFC exec said.
The Browns are still equipped with a top-shelf offensive line/running game and can bolster the lineup with wide receiver or defensive line help. The defense should be better under new coordinator Jim Schwartz.
“Deshaun Watson was average this year but should be better with a full offseason,” an NFC scout said. “He’s going to have to be.”
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