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GREEN BAY
One play may ruin Mike Pettine’s otherwise strong run as the Packers DC. Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:
Kevin King did not have his best game Sunday. The Packers cornerback, who played after being questionable with a back injury, gave up a 39-yard touchdown to Scotty Miller on the next-to-last play of the first half and drew a penalty for defensive pass interference on Tyler Johnson late in the fourth quarter.
But King doesn’t bear as much responsibility as defensive coordinator Mike Pettine for the play before halftime, which frankly has become overshadowed by the final 2 1/2 minutes of the game.
The day after one of the most disappointing losses in the Packers’ long history, tire tracks are everywhere, including down Pettine’s back.
Matt LaFleur’s comments immediately after the game invite a question about whether Pettine’s future already is decided.
“It was man coverage. Definitely not the right call for the situation, and you can’t do stuff like that against a good football team and expect to win,” LaFleur said, via Jason Wilde of Wisconsin State Journal. “When you look at it, there was 120 some-odd plays on both sides of the ball plus all the special teams. There were a lot of plays in that game that could have been made, that could have changed the outcome of the game.
“But the ones that really hurt us the most were that play, and then to come out to start the second half, [Aaron Jones] had the fumble and they score to make it 28-10. That really was the big difference in the football game. You just can’t do that stuff.
“I blame us as coaches for putting our guys in that situation. That’s inexcusable. That should not have happened. So we’ve got to take a look at it, do some self-reflection, and try to figure out ways on how that can’t happen again.”
The Bucs were ready to punt on fourth-and-four from the Green Bay 45 before rethinking it after a timeout. They picked up a first down on a Tom Brady throw to Leonard Fournette to the 39 and called their final timeout with eight seconds left.
Brady saw Miller get a step on King, who was in one-on-one coverage, resulting in a touchdown with one second left in the half and a 21-10 halftime lead.
Hall of Fame coach Tony Dungy was among those critical of the Packers’ coverage in that situation, writing, “That may be the worst defensive design I’ve ever seen with 8 seconds and no timeouts left. Green Bay — I’m not sure how you play inside technique man to man and [not] just play zone and protect the sideline and the end zone? Amazing.”
Pettine’s mistake could cost him his job.
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Michael Silver of NFL.com, known for his informed insights from those who went to Cal, provides his thoughts on what QB AARON RODGERS was trying to say after Sunday’s game:
He waited 13 long years for this moment, a chance to play for a Super Bowl at Lambeau Field, as opposed to standing there helplessly in the Titletown chill. And when it finally came on Sunday in Green Bay — and passed, in a manner so heartbreaking and dumbfounding that it seemed to knock the life out of him — Aaron Rodgers trudged across the frozen tundra and into the great unknown.
After a brief, melancholy hug with his victorious rival, Tom Brady, Rodgers knew what came next, and it would not be pleasant: A trip to the subdued Packers locker room, a shower, and then a virtual press conference to break down the 31-26 NFC Championship Game defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This was a moment of reckoning, and more than anyone — even Green Bay’s second-year coach, Matt LaFleur — the star quarterback and face of the franchise would be asked to process it and put it into context.
In that charged moment, his wounds still fresh, Rodgers, a highly intelligent and hyper-aware 37-year-old, chose his words carefully. And when he spoke, I believe he delivered a message to his bosses, one I’d roughly translate thusly: Your way of doing business has to change, or maybe I should be on my way.
“[There are] a lot of guys’ futures that are uncertain,” Rodgers told reporters, “myself included. That’s what’s sad about it most … getting this far. Obviously there’s going to be an end to it at some point, whether we make it past this one or not. Just the uncertainties, (it) is tough, and the finality of it.”
In the immediate aftermath of the fifth-seeded Bucs’ upset of the top-seeded Packers — the second consecutive year Green Bay has been bounced at this late stage — there were a lot of sizzling storylines to address.
For starters, the Packers made a multitude of mistakes, most glaringly allowing Scott Miller to get behind the secondary to catch Brady’s 39-yard touchdown pass a second before halftime — yet another epic endeavor by the most ruthless quarterback ever to spin it — and fell behind 28-10 early in the third quarter.
Then, fueled by a dominant second-half performance that included intercepting Brady on three consecutive possessions, the Packers were 8 yards and a two-point conversion away from tying the game in the final minutes. Yet after three incompletions, with the Pack facing fourth-and-goal from the 8 and trailing 31-23, LaFleur made the surprising decision to have Mason Crosby kick a 26-yard field goal with 2:05 remaining, believing that Green Bay (which had all three timeouts) could get a stop and give Rodgers another chance to score a touchdown.
And then, on a day when the officials had ignored most contact in the secondary and largely kept their flags in their pockets, a late and semi-nitpicky third-down pass interference call on cornerback Kevin King sealed the deal for Brady — sending him to his 10th Super Bowl — and the Bucs, who’ll face the AFC champion (and defending Super Bowl champion) Kansas City Chiefs on Feb. 7 as the first team to play for a Lombardi Trophy in its home stadium.
All of that is captivating and compelling and worthy of our further examination, but Rodgers’ postgame message — well, that resonated most of all. And really, if we’re intellectually honest with ourselves, an eventual first-ballot Hall of Famer’s uncertain future has been looming over the entirety of the 2020 NFL season, and really goes back even further than that.
A year ago, the San Francisco 49ers ran all over the Packers en route to a 37-20 NFC Championship Game victory. Afterward, Rodgers did his best to put a positive spin on the outcome, saying his first year with LaFleur would “always be special because it became fun again.”
Yet the Packers’ front office, which had been uncharacteristically proactive in free agency the previous spring (with great results), went back to its passive ways this past March, and Rodgers undoubtedly noticed.
In late April, when general manager Brian Gutekunst traded up in the first round to draft … Utah State quarterback Jordan Love — well, Rodgers did more than notice. No, he wasn’t thrilled. Not only had Green Bay aggressively coveted his successor, but there was also the matter of opportunity cost. Gutekunst left some potential impact players on the board when he made the move for Love, and in a draft considered receiver-rich, he elected not to select a single wideout.
That storyline faded as we watched Rodgers put together a monster season that will almost certainly earn him a third Most Valuable Player award — with the distinct promise of a second chance to hoist the trophy he really covets, the one named after a Packers coaching legend.
It resurfaced Sunday, in a glaring way. As the Bucs celebrated their victory over the Packers at Lambeau, how could Rodgers not have pondered the disparity between the two organizations’ respective approaches?
In March, when Tampa Bay general manager Jason Licht landed Brady, a living legend who’d turn 43 before the start of the season, he reacted by putting the pedal to the metal and running through stop signs and speed bumps. From Rob Gronkowski to LeSean McCoy to Leonard Fournette to Antonio Brown, Licht took huge swings on talented veterans he hoped might make a difference in a furious push to maximize the relatively small window created by Brady’s presence.
In the draft, rather than going after Brady’s successor, Licht used the 13th overall pick on Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs, who instantly became an impact player at right tackle and consistently made his quarterback’s life better.
Licht’s approach wasn’t guaranteed to work. But it made intuitive sense, jibing perfectly with head coach Bruce Arians’ No risk it, no biscuit mantra. And it certainly helped convince Brady that his bosses were all in, and possibly took some of the burden off of the legendary quarterback, psychic or otherwise.
The Packers, by contrast, appeared to be telling Rodgers something much different in April: We do things our way, and we’re already looking past this era — but hey, if you want to up your game to an even more ethereal level and carry the guys we’ve already got as far as they can possibly go, have at it!
So yeah, now that Rodgers (33-for-48, 346 yards, three touchdowns, one interception) — besieged by a relentless Bucs pass rush and beset by teammates’ uncharacteristic mistakes (like the fumble by running back Aaron Jones that essentially handed the Bucs a third-quarter touchdown and the dropped two-point conversion by Equanimeous St. Brown) — tried and failed, he’s got a lot to unpack. The fact that he fell short against one of the greatest competitors the sports world has ever known — on a day in which Brady made more mistakes than usual — makes that unpacking process even messier.
We all want clarity, but what happens next isn’t as clear-cut as some might portray it. Sure, Rodgers — who is under contract through the 2023 season — could tell his bosses he wants out and try to force a trade. To me, that seems like an extreme scenario, given how close this team came to playing for a championship and how integral Rodgers is to its fortunes. It should also be noted that while LaFleur does not technically have final say over such matters, he has won an inordinately high percentage of games during his first two seasons and has a zero-percent desire to go into 2021 without Rodgers as his starter — and will certainly make his thoughts known.
More likely, in the aftermath of a defeat he called “gutting,” Rodgers was flexing his power and sending a message. It’s one that Gutekunst and his bosses should listen to closely, and assess carefully.
If the Packers want to keep Rodgers in 2021, and perhaps beyond, they’re going to need to change their organizational mentality. It’s time to pursue talent aggressively and relentlessly and try to load up for another title run while this generational quarterback is still willing and able to fuel that effort.
Either that, or they can stay passive, sit on their hands and watch it all burn.
Presumably after reading Silver’s message, Packers President Mark Murphy reacted. Mike Florio:
The Green Bay Packers have spoken.
CEO Mark Murphy, appearing Monday on The 5th Quarter Show on WNFL in Green Bay, addressed quarterback Aaron Rodgers‘ recent comments suggesting uncertainty regarding his future with the team.
“We’re not idiots,” Murphy said. “Aaron Rodgers will be back, he’s our leader.”
He’s a leader that they undermined and confused by adding his apparent eventual replacement last year, using a first-round pick and a fourth-round pick to acquire quarterback Jordan Love. At a minimum, Rodgers would like clarity as to whether the team plans to flip the switch from Rodgers to Love next year, the year after, or the year after that.
Unless Love was a Garoppolo-style pick aimed at lighting a fire under Rodgers, the Packers drafted Love with the idea that he’d eventually play. If the Packers want Rodgers to commit to them for 2021, it would be smart to give Rodgers a commitment for at least 2022 and 2023.
Even an idiot can figure that out
And, according to Florio, they need to give him a new deal:
Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was sending a message to the team with his post-game comments after Sunday’s loss to the Buccaneers in the NFC Championship. The message likely had multiple tentacles.
Here’s one. Per a league source, Rodgers wants a new contract.
Rodgers should want a new contract. He makes $33.5 million per year. He’s going to win the 2020 NFL MVP award. And he’s getting into the later years of his last deal, which will pay him far less in comparison to other quarterbacks.
He’s due to make $22.35 million in 2021, $25.5 million in 2022, and $25.5 million in 2023.
Rodgers currently ranks fifth in average new-money value, behind Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes ($45 million), Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson ($39 million), Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson ($35 million), and Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger ($34 million).
Rodgers earns the same amount as Rams quarterback Jared Goff. Which means that Rodgers is grossly underpaid, Goff is grossly overpaid, or both. (Both.)
Rodgers has a cap number in excess of $37 million for 2021, but a new contract easily could reduce it. A new deal also would reflect the team’s commitment to Rodgers over the next few years, based on the guaranteed payments and the cap consequences arising from cutting or trading him.
If Rodgers officially asks for a new contract, he’ll definitely get one thing: Clarity as to where he stands. A new deal means renewed vows. No new deal means the clock will still tick toward a potential, if not inevitable, divorce.
While Rodgers may want more (especially as it relates to efforts to improve the team), one thing he wants — and deserves — is a new contract.
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SAN FRANCISCO
Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com ponders the addition of a high profile QB to the 49ers.
Asked about the future at quarterback, San Francisco 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have repeatedly said they expect Jimmy Garoppolo to be the starter in 2021.
But Shanahan and Lynch have also left wiggle room in case something better pops up. Something like, say, an opportunity to land a 25-year-old franchise quarterback entering his prime or a 32-year-old with eight 4,000-yard seasons looking to play for a contender.
“You can’t say anything with certainty,” Shanahan said in late December. “You don’t sit here and make promises on anything.”
For example, nobody would have thought the Houston Texans would trade quarterback Deshaun Watson after he signed his four-year, $156 million extension in September.
Just a few months later, the idea doesn’t seem so outlandish, as ESPN’s Adam Schefter has reported multiple people in and around the team believe Watson is so unhappy in Houston he has played his final snap there. Watson has not formally requested a trade and there’s still a chance he’ll stay with the Texans. But if he asks out, he’ll be highly-coveted by many teams.
While the Watson situation needs clarity, there’s no doubt the Detroit Lions and quarterback Matthew Stafford are headed toward a split. Sources told Schefter on Saturday the Lions will seek a trade for Stafford. That news was less surprising as the Lions begin a rebuild and Stafford seeks a chance on a contender.
Both situations bear monitoring for the 49ers.
How would Watson or Stafford fit with the Niners?
In the words of noted philosopher Ace Ventura: Like a glove. Both possess the type of physical ability, as well as a track record of production and durability that would make sense for the 49ers.
Perhaps lost in the Niners’ plan to sign Kirk Cousins after the 2017 season was they’d spent a lot of time with Watson in the run up to the 2017 draft. They had a private workout with him at Clemson and he was one of the team’s 30 pre-draft visitors. But the 49ers passed on Watson and every other first-round quarterback because they had their eyes on Cousins, although that never happened because of the trade for Garoppolo.
Nearly four years later, it’s easy to picture Watson thriving in Shanahan’s offense. His mobility and deep ball accuracy (45.4% completion rate on throws 20-plus yards downfield is second in the NFL since he entered the league), would allow the offense to take a leap forward and stress defenses in ways heretofore unseen.
What’s more, the cap charge for a team acquiring Watson is around $10 million. Garoppolo is scheduled to count $26.9 million against the cap next year and the Niners would incur $2.8 million in dead money by trading or releasing him. The money saved at quarterback would give the Niners a sizable chunk to re-sign left tackle Trent Williams.
Stafford isn’t quite the value of Watson given his age and a salary cap number — $20 million for 2021 and $23 million for 2022. But that’s still a relative bargain for a guy who has started 165 games and thrown for 45,109 yards and 282 touchdowns since he was drafted in 2009. Stafford also possesses one of the league’s strongest arms, ranking eighth in the NFL on throws traveling 20-plus yards in the air since entering the league.
Shanahan has said if you’re going to move on from one player, the guy replacing him must be a clear upgrade. There’s no debating Watson represents that for the 49ers. The same is true of Stafford, albeit to a lesser degree.
For either player, the Niners would seem to have plenty of appeal. San Francisco’s roster is loaded, although injuries ravaged the Niners a season after reaching the Super Bowl. Give Watson or Stafford a strong running game, pass-catchers such as George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and a stout defense, and the Niners would be contenders, if not favorites again in the NFC.
What could it cost?
A lot, especially for Watson, though Watson’s no-trade clause could alter that.
Finding a comparison for Stafford is easier than for Watson, though the closest comp for either player is probably Carson Palmer, who requested a trade from the Cincinnati Bengals after the 2010 season. Palmer threatened to retire if his demand wasn’t met. The sides engaged in a standoff with Palmer not reporting to camp and the Bengals spending a second-round pick on Andy Dalton.
Finally, the Bengals realized Palmer was an asset and they could at least get value for him in a trade. They dealt him to the Oakland Raiders for a first-round pick in 2012 and a second-round selection in 2013.
Undoubtedly, Watson would garner much more in a trade. The Niners could move draft picks and they have star players, though they’d be extremely hesitant to move someone like end Nick Bosa or linebacker Fred Warner.
Watson holds some agency because of that no-trade clause. How far would he be willing to go to land where he wants?
If Watson was willing to sit out, he could essentially choose his destination. Sure, Watson wouldn’t get paid and would incur some hefty fines if he didn’t report, but it does the Texans no good to have an unhappy Watson sitting on their roster and not participating. More often than not, when star players demand trades, they get traded eventually.
Since Watson has that no-trade clause, it stands to reason he’d use it to land in a favorable destination where he would be happy with the culture and have a chance to win Super Bowls right away. The fewer teams involved, the lower the presumed price, but it wouldn’t be cheap. It’s hard to envision a scenario in which a potential trade doesn’t include at least three first-round picks and that’s probably just a starting point.
Stafford’s price should be considerably lower, probably closer to Palmer’s once was, but even that might not be as cheap as some might think given there are a number of teams such as Indianapolis, Chicago, Denver and possibly even New Orleans and Pittsburgh that could be in the mix.
How realistic is it for the 49ers?
If the Texans get a bidding war, there’s little chance the 49ers could outbid teams like the Miami Dolphins or New York Jets. Those teams have top-three picks (which the Texans could use to draft Watson’s replacement) and multiple first-round selections in this year’s draft. Barring a willingness to trade some of their own young stars, perhaps more than one, in addition to their picks, it’s hard to see the 49ers competing.
Which means there’s really only one scenario in which a Watson-49ers marriage could happen: Watson demands a trade either specifically to the 49ers or includes them on a short list of teams that doesn’t include teams with more to offer.
So, while Watson to the Niners would be must-see TV, Stafford is a more realistic possibility, so long as the cost to acquire him doesn’t go to a place the 49ers aren’t willing to visit. And if it does? The 49ers remain prepared to run it back with Garoppolo and bolster the backup spots behind him.
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2021 DRAFT
Mel Kiper has a Mock Draft:
It’s officially NFL mock draft season. Let’s kick it off with my preliminary projections for the first round of the 2021 NFL draft, starting with the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 1.
This is going to be one of the most interesting drafts since I started covering them more than 40 years ago. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought extraordinary changes to the pre-draft process. There’s no NFL combine. Pro days will be limited to teams. The Senior Bowl this week is the only event in which coaches, scouts and front-office execs will be able to meet with prospects — through plexiglass.
A year ago, all the talk was about Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow and his rise to the top. There ended up being little drama around the Cincinnati Bengals’ pick at No. 1. This year? Well, let’s just say the draft starts with the New York Jets at No. 2. There is going to be a lot of drama for the next three months until Round 1 begins April 29.
Let’s get into the picks. The draft order for picks 1-30 is set, and we’re using ESPN’s Football Power Index to project pick Nos. 31 and 32. I’ll be on shows throughout the day, culminating in our SportsCenter Special: Mel Kiper’s NFL Mock Draft 1.0 at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and the ESPN app.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Let’s kick off Urban Meyer’s rebuild in Jacksonville with a franchise quarterback. Lawrence is one of the best quarterback prospects I’ve studied over the past decade, and he has all the makings of a superstar, from arm talent to size to the ability to process at the position. And we know Meyer likes him from his comments in 2019. Make no mistake, though; this is not going to be a quick fix. The Jaguars were 1-15 for a reason. They have some talent to build around on offense, with wide receivers Laviska Shenault Jr. and DJ Chark Jr. and running back James Robinson, but they need to add protection for Lawrence on the offensive line. Will free agent left tackle Cam Robinson be back? It’s no sure thing. The good news for Meyer and new general manager Trent Baalke is that they have another first-round pick (No. 25) and an extra second-round pick from the Yannick Ngakoue trade with the Vikings.
2. New York Jets
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Kiper’s Big Board rankings for the 2021 NFL draft: Defenders rising and a QB shuffle
This is where the intrigue in the draft begins. Will the Jets stick with quarterback Sam Darnold for another year, or will they take either Zach Wilson or Justin Fields? (Or maybe even trade for Deshaun Watson?) The good news for general manager Joe Douglas and new coach Robert Saleh is that they have three months to figure it out. This is a huge decision, and Douglas and Saleh have to be 100% sure that Wilson or Fields is an upgrade over Darnold. My feeling right now is that yes, Darnold’s stats are ugly, but he’s only 23 and he has had no offensive talent around him for three years. Do the Jets really want to move on from him and watch him thrive elsewhere? That’s why they could give him a one-year audition under Saleh, pick the Heisman Trophy winner at No. 2, and give Darnold one more shot to put all of his talent together. Smith is the true No. 1 target that Darnold hasn’t had.
3. Miami Dolphins (from HOU)
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Tua Tagovailoa was just OK in nine starts as a rookie, but he needs some help. I like DeVante Parker, but he’s not a No. 1 wide receiver. Chase can be. Because Chase opted out of the 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic, I think some people are forgetting how good he was in 2019, when he averaged 21.2 yards per catch and had 20 touchdowns for the national champs. Just watch Chase’s athleticism and concentration on this catch. Tagovailoa won’t average 6.3 yards per attempt with the 2019 Biletnikoff Award winner on the field.
4. Atlanta Falcons
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
It’s time for the Falcons to think long term on offense under new general manager Terry Fontenot and coach Arthur Smith. Quarterback Matt Ryan turns 36 this summer. Wide receiver Julio Jones will be 32 next month. Center Alex Mack is 35 and a free agent. They can build around Wilson, who had a phenomenal season for the Cougars, throwing 33 touchdown passes and only three picks, and give him at least a year to learn from Ryan and adjust to the NFL. I thought about Justin Fields here, too, but I’m giving a slight edge to Wilson for now. If Atlanta doesn’t go with a quarterback, I’d expect a defender to be the target.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
This is all about protecting quarterback Joe Burrow, who will spend the offseason recovering from the torn left ACL and MCL he suffered in November. Burrow started 10 games, but it was clear that he wasn’t comfortable behind a mediocre offensive line. The Bengals can take a step toward improvement by picking Sewell, an opt-out who was the 2019 Outland Trophy winner. He’s the clear top offensive tackle in this class. Sewell could stay at left tackle while 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams either moves to the right side or guard. I have compared Sewell to Hall of Famer Anthony Munoz, and Cincinnati should be thrilled to get another foundational player.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
The Eagles had a disastrous 4-11-1 season, with quarterback Carson Wentz regressing and getting benched for rookie second-rounder Jalen Hurts. And yes, Wentz, was not very good, but his receivers didn’t exactly give him much help. They got only 20 total catches from veterans Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson due to injuries, and 2019 second-round pick J.J. Arcega-Whiteside barely got on the field. So even though Philadelphia drafted Jalen Reagor in Round 1 a year ago, I still see this as a hole in the offense. Waddle, one of the fastest prospects in this draft, could be the go-to target in new coach Nick Sirianni’s offense. He was one of college football’s most electric receivers over the past three seasons, even if he was overshadowed at times by teammates Henry Ruggs III, Jerry Jeudy and DeVonta Smith. His ceiling is as a No. 1 pass-catcher at the next level.
7. Detroit Lions
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Things change quickly in the NFL. Before the news on Saturday that the Lions were going to trade quarterback Matthew Stafford this offseason, I would have said that they should keep Stafford and try to help him with a wide receiver in this draft. Alabama’s Jaylen Waddle would have fit here. But instead it appears that new general manager Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell will go all-in on a rebuild, and so Fields could be the face of it. He had an up-and-down season, but we saw the flashes of his talent, particularly in his six-touchdown performance against Clemson in the College Football Playoff semifinal. Fields has superstar potential, but he’ll need help around him. Detroit will need to figure out what it’s doing with free-agent wideouts Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. and make sure Fields has a chance to succeed in Year 1.
8. Carolina Panthers
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
If you’re surprised that I’m thinking quarterback here, don’t be. Teddy Bridgewater could be the starter again for the Panthers in 2021, but his contract shows they’re not committed to him long term. Coach Matt Rhule could go after an intriguing signal-caller in Lance, who played only one game last season. With only 17 career starts — none against an FBS opponent — he is going to be a wild card in this draft. His 2019 season was just so, so impressive, though, and I think a team could fall in love with him in this range. If Carolina decides against drafting a quarterback in Round 1, Florida tight end Kyle Pitts would be another option.
9. Denver Broncos
Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
Is pass-rusher Von Miller going to return to the Broncos? What about free-agent safety Justin Simmons? This defense could look very different in Year 3 under Vic Fangio. I thought about a cornerback here, but I see linebacker as the bigger position to upgrade, and Parsons could play inside or outside. I see him more as an inside linebacker for a 3-4 defense, but his versatility would be a fit for any type of defense. Parsons, who opted out of the 2020 season, was a force at Penn State in 2019, with 109 tackles, five sacks and four forced fumbles. He has some upside as a pass-rusher.
10. Dallas Cowboys
Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
Heading into the 2020 season, the Cowboys’ offensive line looked solid on paper, and that was after center Travis Frederick retired in March. But then injuries hit: Right tackle La’el Collins missed every game, left tackle Tyron Smith played just two and guard Zack Martin missed six. And what you saw was a poor Cowboys offense, even before quarterback Dak Prescott was lost for the season due to his ankle injury. That’s why I think Slater fits in Dallas, where he could play either tackle spot or move inside to guard. Todd McShay thinks Slater could excel at center, too. He was another prospect who opted out, but he didn’t allow a single sack playing left tackle in 2019. This is a spot to watch for Surtain as well because Chidobe Awuzie could leave in free agency.
11. New York Giants
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Quarterback Daniel Jones cut down on his turnovers and showed some improvement in Year 2, but he still averaged only 6.6 yards per attempt. Even when he gets time to throw in the pocket, he doesn’t have a consistent downfield threat (though Darius Slayton was a nice fifth-round find in 2019). At 6-foot-6, Pitts has the size/speed traits to line up out wide, in the slot or next to an offensive tackle. And he showed off his ability after the catch by averaging 17.9 yards per reception with 12 touchdowns. Pitts is not a traditional tight end, but he’s a skilled offensive threat. And with Evan Engram on the roster, too, the Giants would have two of the most athletic — and versatile — tight ends in football.
12. San Francisco 49ers
Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
The 49ers will likely undergo big changes on defense this offseason, with defensive coordinator Robert Saleh gone and cornerbacks Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon and Jason Verrett all unrestricted free agents. That’s why it makes sense to target a corner early. Surtain, my top-ranked corner, could be a starter on Day 1. He had 27 pass breakups and four interceptions over three seasons at Bama. At 6-foot-2, Surtain has the size and speed to play on an island and lock down wideouts. Depending on whether San Francisco can bring back free-agent left tackle Trent Williams, offensive line could also be a position to target.
13. Los Angeles Chargers
Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
With four straight wins to end the season, the Chargers likely moved themselves out of the Penei Sewell sweepstakes, but Darrisaw is a great consolation prize. He had a phenomenal 2020 season and could be quarterback Justin Herbert’s long-term blindside protector. Offensive line is one of L.A.’s top needs of the offseason, and it could add to the position in both free agency and the draft. New coach Brandon Staley will get back safety Derwin James from injury, but his defensive line needs a boost, too. Keep an eye on risers between now and April.
14. Minnesota Vikings
Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT/G, USC
Speaking of rising prospects, Vera-Tucker has scouts around the league buzzing after a tremendous season. He moved from guard to left tackle and dominated for the Trojans. At 6-foot-4, 315 pounds, he could play either position at the next level. The Vikings must solidify their offensive line around Kirk Cousins, even after spending second-round picks on Ezra Cleveland (2020) and Brian O’Neill (2018) in recent years, and Vera-Tucker could be the long-term answer on the left side of the line. Cousins plays best when his running game is humming, and Vera-Tucker is a great run blocker.
15. New England Patriots
Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Like McShay, I’m thinking quarterback for the Patriots. They don’t pick this high often. Why not go and get your guy and build around him? Now, that changes if Bill Belichick & Co. can make a deal to get a veteran quarterback on the trade market or if Jimmy Garoppolo gets cut by the 49ers. But with Cam Newton unlikely to return to New England, Jones could become a signal-caller to groom for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Jones can make every throw at every level of the field, and he’s extremely accurate. Plus, we know that Belichick has drafted plenty of Alabama stars and trusts Nick Saban. Jones will be at the Senior Bowl this week, and I’m expecting him to impress. And yes, if you’re keeping count, this makes five quarterbacks in the top 15 picks.
16. Arizona Cardinals
Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Arizona could have openings at both corner spots this offseason, with veterans Patrick Peterson and Dre Kirkpatrick both on the free-agent market. If the Cardinals decide to move on from the over-30 corners, this is the best place to find a new starter. One of the first prospects to opt out of the season, the 6-foot-2 Farley looked like a star on the 2019 tape, but he is still raw. He has played defensive back only since 2018. I could also see the Cardinals keeping an eye on the wide receivers in this class; Christian Kirk has not been consistent enough to show that he can be their No. 2 wideout alongside DeAndre Hopkins.
17. Las Vegas Raiders
Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami (FL)
This is a strange draft in that there are no dominant pass-rushers. Phillips could be the top edge prospect, and I have only a mid-first-round grade on him. But he had a dominant season for the Hurricanes after transferring from UCLA, where he had ended his career because of concussion issues. The former five-star prospect missed the 2019 season and then ended up at Miami, where he had 5.5 sacks in his final three games. Depending on his medical checks, Phillips could rise even higher. The Raiders, meanwhile, had one of the NFL’s worst pass rushes again (21 sacks, fourth worst) and got only two sacks from former No. 4 overall pick Clelin Ferrell.
18. Miami Dolphins
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
If Miami adds a wide receiver with the No. 3 pick, this selection is likely going toward a defense that took a big step forward in 2020, thanks in large part to stellar corner play from Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. So let’s fortify the middle of the Miami D, where Elandon Roberts and Kamu Grugier-Hill are free agents. Owusu-Koramoah, who had 140 tackles and five forced fumbles over the past two seasons, could step right in and play one of the inside linebacker spots. He also has some pass-rush upside, as he had 8.5 sacks in 2019. The Dolphins are clearly ascending, and Owusu-Koramoah is a great fit as a speedy, sideline-to-sideline tackler.
19. Washington Football Team
Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
I would have liked to get a quarterback for Washington, but my top five are all off the board. Ron Rivera & Co. have to figure out the position, and maybe the answer is a veteran in free agency. Instead let’s focus on a wide receiver group that has only Terry McLaurin as a plus starter. Kyle Pitts got a lot of the attention from people watching the Gators this season, but Toney opened the eyes of NFL scouts. He was a Swiss Army knife, catching 70 passes with 10 scores, adding a touchdown as a runner and one more on a punt return. Think of a Tyreek Hill-type playmaker who can beat teams in a variety of ways. We’ve already seen Washington get creative with Antonio Gibson, and it should find ways to get the ball in Toney’s hands.
20. Chicago Bears
Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
This is a really strong offensive tackle class, and we could see a run on them in the 20s. Jenkins started at both right tackle and left tackle for the Cowboys, and he was having a stellar season before he opted out in late November. At 6-foot-6, 310 pounds, he has long arms and there are no questions about his size to play tackle. In Chicago, he could start immediately on the right side, where Germain Ifedi is a free agent, and be the long-term replacement to Charles Leno at left tackle. The Bears could also be in the market for a top receiver with Allen Robinson headed to free agency.
21. Indianapolis Colts
Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
With Philip Rivers retired and Jacoby Brissett a free agent, we know the Colts will be in the quarterback market this offseason. If they wait until the draft to make their move, they might have to trade up to get their guy. I don’t see a fit here. Paye is a tough evaluation. He finished his four-year college career with 11.5 sacks and had only two last season. But we know that the draft is all about size/athleticism traits, even when the production doesn’t match. And that’s the 6-foot-4, 270-pound Paye, who is a gifted athlete. This is an upside pick, and the Colts have a hole at defensive end with Justin Houston hitting free agency.
22. Tennessee Titans
Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami (FL)
This has to be an edge rusher, right? The Titans had a putrid pass rush last season, finishing with 19 total sacks, which was only two more than the last-ranked Bengals. They got very little from free-agent signing Jadeveon Clowney, and their leading sacker Harold Landry finished with only 5.5. That’s not good enough for a team that thinks it’s a Super Bowl contender. The 6-foot-7 Rousseau, another opt-out, had 15.5 sacks in a breakout 2019 season, but he doesn’t have an elite first step and needs to add some moves to his repertoire. With only one year of production and no live football in a year, he’s another wild card in his class. But again, teams love pass-rushers, so he could be in demand.
23. New York Jets (from SEA)
Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
The Jets have needs all over. After I gave them wideout DeVonta Smith at No. 2, they really have to go with the best available prospect here to build up their talent base. I think they will likely bring back free-agent safety Marcus Maye, but we know Robert Saleh’s defense is built around big defensive backs. The 6-foot-1 Horn — yes, his father is former NFL wide receiver Joe Horn — is a fit. He had two interceptions (both in the win over Auburn) in seven games last season before he opted out, but he has great instincts in coverage and should pick off more passes in the NFL. This is also a spot to watch for edge rushers — New York needs to improve there.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers
Zaven Collins, OLB/DE, Tulsa
Pittsburgh lost five of its last six games after starting 11-0, and holes were exposed, particularly after edge rusher Bud Dupree tore his ACL in early December. And with Dupree now a free agent, this would be a pick to grab a replacement. Collins is a do-everything linebacker who had four sacks, four interceptions (two for TDs) and two forced fumbles on the way to winning the Nagurski Award last season. At 6-foot-4, 260 pounds, he could slot into Dupree’s position and excel at getting after quarterbacks or dropping into coverage to confuse offensive coordinators. Collins is a really intriguing chess piece for a smart defense. The Steelers could also think about offensive line with this pick.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR)
Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
I thought about a receiver or offensive lineman here to help Trevor Lawrence, but this defense is depleted, particularly along the defensive line and in the secondary. How can we get the Jags some help? K’Lavon Chaisson, a first-rounder last year, had only one sack and nine QB hits as a rookie. Taven Bryan, a first-rounder in 2018, has only 3.5 sacks in three seasons. Barmore really came on at the end of the season, with six sacks in his final six games. He was dominant in the two College Football Playoff wins. I love the fit in Jacksonville, where he can be a penetrating 3-technique.
26. Cleveland Browns
Aaron Robinson, DB, UCF
The Browns had major issues in their secondary last season, which started in training camp when rookie safety Grant Delpit tore his Achilles tendon and second-year corner Greedy Williams hurt his shoulder. Both former second-round picks ended up missing the entire season. With Robinson, Cleveland could add a big, aggressive defensive back who can play multiple positions. The 6-foot-1 Alabama transfer played corner and nickelback for the Knights, and I could see him playing some safety in the NFL. I moved him up my rankings after watching more tape of his last two seasons.
27. Baltimore Ravens
Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
The Ravens’ passing attack did not take a step forward in Lamar Jackson’s second full season as the starting quarterback. Marquise Brown was the only receiver who caught at least 35 passes, and even he was too inconsistent. Baltimore had the fewest passing attempts, passing yards and passing first downs in the league. Adding another top-tier wideout is how it can really take the offense to the next level. Marshall was coming on as LSU’s top wideout this season, and he had 10 touchdowns in seven games before he opted out of the season in November. He has some quickness in a 6-foot-3 frame.
28. New Orleans Saints
Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
It’s really hard to project what the Saints are going to do because their offseason is in flux. They don’t have any salary-cap space to make moves. These are of some of their pending free agents: Marcus Williams, Trey Hendrickson, Jameis Winston, Jared Cook, Sheldon Rankins and P.J. Williams. And then there’s the Drew Brees dilemma, as the 42-year-old quarterback could retire. Moehrig, the top safety in my rankings, would be the successor to 33-year-old Malcolm Jenkins. He had six interceptions over the past two seasons. Again, though, this pick is more about projecting for the Saints’ current needs, which could be very different in April.
29. Green Bay Packers
Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
Did you watch the Packers’ secondary get torched by the Bucs in the first half of the NFC Championship Game? Former second-round pick Kevin King, who is now a free agent, was picked on by Tom Brady. Green Bay has to find a consistent starter opposite Jaire Alexander. Campbell has the talent to be that guy, though he had an up-and-down career at Georgia. His issue? He was too inconsistent from snap to snap. But the former five-star prospect is a gifted athlete in a 6-foot-2 frame, and this pick is all about projecting him to improve under NFL coaching. Based on talent alone, Campbell would be a top-15 pick, but his tape could see him drop to Round 2.
30. Buffalo Bills
Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Buffalo’s running game was so ineffective this season that offensive coordinator Brian Daboll cooked up a few game plans that required very few runs. Josh Allen was the Bills’ leading rusher in the postseason — by 82 yards. They should upgrade with Harris, who had a dominant season for the Crimson Tide and could also help in the passing game. With rookie Zack Moss coming off an ankle injury and Devin Singletary not an every-down player, this is where the Bills can get better immediately in 2021. And we’ve seen rookies come in right away and make a big impact. Offensive line is a position to watch for Buffalo; I thought about Michigan offensive tackle Jalen Mayfield here.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Joe Tryon, DE, Washington
Like the Saints, Tampa Bay has a few priority free agents on the defensive side of the ball, including Shaq Barrett, Ndamukong Suh and Lavonte David. Unlike the Saints, though, the Bucs have the cap space to bring them back if they want to. After general manager Jason Licht filled holes with his top two picks in last April’s draft — Tristan Wirfs and Antoine Winfield Jr. were instant impact players — he can do that again with Tryon, who had eight sacks in 2019 but opted out of this past season. With Jason Pierre-Paul now 32, Tampa could use edge rushers. That’s the 6-foot-5 Tryon. Iowa defensive tackle Daviyon Nixon is another option — he could replace Suh. (Also, Bucs fans, remember that we’re using ESPN’s FPI to project the order here, and it favors the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV.)
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Azeez Ojulari, OLB/DE, Georgia
Six sacks for Frank Clark. Three for Alex Okafor. One for Tanoh Kpassagnon. The Chiefs went 14-2 without much of a pass rush from the outside (Chris Jones is still a dominant interior rusher). Ojulari capped his Georgia career with three sacks in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl and had 8.5 on the season. He also forced four fumbles. At 6-foot-3, 240 pounds, he might be a better fit for a 3-4 defense, but he can get after quarterbacks with the best of them in this class. And a smart defensive coordinator will move him around on defense and let him loose.
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