CHICAGO

QB CALEB WILLIAMS doesn’t have a contract and he doesn’t have an NFLPA-certified agent.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Quarterback Caleb Williams isn’t handling his contract negotiations with the Bears. Unless he is.

Over the weekend, Williams said regarding his rookie deal, “I’m not handling that. My lawyers and attorney and everybody, the head of the Bears, everybody up there up top is handling that. That’s not my position that I’m handling.”

Since Williams isn’t represented by an NFLPA-certified agent, the Bears aren’t permitted to negotiate with anyone but Williams. According to an NFL spokesperson, the Bears have told the league that they’re not talking to any third parties.

“Your read on Article 48 [of the Collective Bargaining Agreement] is correct,” the league told PFT via email. “The team, however, confirmed to the league that it is only speaking to the player.”

So either someone is telling an inaccurate story, or the Bears think they’re negotiating with Williams when they aren’t. The most common workaround for self-represented players who really aren’t representing themselves is to create an email address that is ostensibly the player but is actually someone else. (In at least one situation, the cover was blown when the player responded to an email from the team — while the player was on the practice field.)

Regardless, something isn’t lining up. And the situation isn’t working out. Williams, the first overall pick in the April draft, is one of only five first-round selection who have not signed, and the Bears’ rookies report tomorrow.

DETROIT

Pride of the Lions!  What a great name for the team’s “Ring of Honor” section.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

Calvin Johnson has already etched his name into Lions history several times over. But the franchise will give him one additional earned honor during the coming season.

Detroit announced on Monday that Johnson will be inducted into the Pride of the Lions during halftime of the team’s Sept. 30 Monday night matchup with the Seahawks. The club describes Pride of the Lions as a permanent display at Ford Field that honors the greatest players in franchise history.

“We are thrilled to add Calvin Johnson Jr. to the Pride of the Lions,” Lions President and CEO Rod Wood said in a statement. “His commitment on the field and to the city of Detroit are legendary and this is a well-deserved honor. We are proud that he will be forever memorialized inside Ford Field and as a Detroit Lion.”

The No. 7 overall pick of the 2007 draft, Johnson played 135 games for the Lions over nine seasons before retiring after the 2015 season. He is Detroit’s all-time leader in receptions (731), receiving yards (11,619), and receiving touchdowns (83).

He was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame on his first ballot in 2021.

We didn’t know that the Pride of the Lions has been up and running since 2009:

Johnson Jr. joins 20 other all-time Lions greats featured on Pride of the Lions, which was first unveiled in 2009. Most recently, OT Lomas Brown was inducted in 2023 and LB Chris Spielman was inducted in 2021. Other members include: DT Roger Brown, DT Alex Karras, WR Herman Moore, CB Lem Barney, S Jack Christiansen, QB Dutch Clark, OL Lou Creekmur, K Jason Hanson, CB Dick “Night Train” Lane, S Yale Lary, QB Bobby Layne, CB Dick LeBeau, RB Barry Sanders, TE Charlie Sanders, LB Joe Schmidt, G Dick Stanfel, RB Doak Walker and OL Alex Wojciechowicz.

Be careful when you say a stadium display is “forever”.  The Buccaneers had a Krewe of Honor that didn’t make it out of the rubble of the Big Sombrero (and Ricky Bell is not in the team’s current Ring of Honor).

CAROLINA

We note QB BAKER MAYFIELD including Brad Idzik here.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield’s career took a turn for the better while playing in Dave Canales’s offense last year and he thinks Canales can help another quarterback take a similar turn in 2024.

Canales, who was the Bucs offensive coordinator last year, left the Bucs to become the head coach of the Panthers early this offseason and one of the biggest tasks he’ll face is getting Bryce Young to rebound from a rough rookie season. Former Bucs wide receivers coach Brad Idzik joined Canales in Carolina and Mayfield was talked about both of them during an appearance on Pardon My Take.

Mayfield was asked how he thinks Canales will do as a head coach and his positive assessment included mention of what the two coaches can do for his fellow Heisman winner.

“Good. He’s very relatable,” Mayfield said. “Smart guy. He took our receivers coach from Tampa with him to be the OC, Brad Idzik. Really, really good football mind. I think those two guys together around Bryce is gonna be good for him. Dave’s the definition of an optimist bully. It could be the worst day ever, everything could be going wrong and he’s sitting there, he’s like ‘Guys, we got the next play!’ He’s got a big ol’ smile on his face and you’re like ‘This guy’s full of shit’ but no. That’s literally who he is day in and day out and it’s honestly refreshing.”

It would likely be better for the Bucs’ chances of returning to the playoffs if Mayfield is wrong about the impact that their former coaches will have in Carolina, but it will make for a more entertaining NFC South if he’s right.

CINCINNATI

WR TEE HIGGINS will play 2024 under the franchise tag.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

It’s official: Bengals receiver Tee Higgins will play 2024 under the franchise tag.

Monday’s deadline passed for players who received the franchise tag to sign a long-term deal, and Higgins will be the lone NFL player to play this season on the tag.

He signed his franchise tag last month, guaranteeing him $21.816 million this season.

Higgins is scheduled to become a free agent in 2025, and the Bengals likely let him walk as No. 1 receiver Ja’Marr Chase also is seeking a contract extension.

Jaguars edge rusher Joshua Hines-Allen, Ravens defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson and Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. all signed long-term deals after being tagged, while Giants edge rusher Brian Burns and Titans cornerback L’Jarius Sneed signed new deals after being traded from their former teams.

Patriots safety Kyle Dugger, the only transition tag recipient, also signed a long-term deal.

Higgins needs a big year after catching only 42 of 77 targets for 656 yards and five touchdowns in 12 games last season as a rib injury and a hamstring issue slowed him.

THIS AND THAT

FANTASY BREAKOUTS

We’re not sure every team can have a “Fantasy breakout” – but The Athletic’scorrespondents come up with one:

As NFL teams prepare to report for training camp over the next couple of weeks, each one has a player (maybe a few) set for a breakout season who could decide the title in your fantasy league.

Perhaps it’s a highly touted draft pick who is now ready for the spotlight, or a journeyman veteran who landed in an ideal situation. Or maybe it’s a former star primed to bounce back after a down season, or an unheralded player who will blossom in a bigger role.

With fantasy draft season drawing closer, The Athletic’s NFL beat reporters are here to tell you who is ready to take a leap in 2024.

Arizona Cardinals

WR Michael Wilson

RB James Conner was a decent fantasy play last season and should be again this year. Rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr., will surely get his touches. Seasoned fantasy players know this. The key word here is “breakout,” which I’ll translate to someone who would be worth consideration in mid-to-late fantasy rounds. That’s Wilson. Even though he missed four games due to injuries, he was steady as a rookie in 2023 (38/565/3). His production should jump this year, especially with QB Kyler Murray in place for a full season. He’s worth a look. — Doug Haller

Atlanta Falcons

RB Bijan Robinson

Robinson was 56th in fantasy points per game in 2023, according to TruMedia. That’s not what anyone expected after the Falcons drafted him eighth. His biggest problem was that he scored only eight touchdowns — four rushing and four receiving. Under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, Bijan Robinson is expected to play a more traditional running back role than he did in Arthur Smith’s offense. That could be a good thing for his usage. Kyren Williams had 12 rushing touchdowns for the Rams last year in the same system. The fantasy concern with Robinson is whether Tyler Allgeier cuts into his carries, especially near the goal line, as the season progresses. — Josh Kendall

Baltimore Ravens

WR Rashod Bateman

Yes, I know that the 2021 first-round pick has generated lofty breakout predictions in previous offseasons and he’s never achieved fantasy relevance. And it’s always wise to proceed with caution when counting on Ravens wide receivers in your weekly lineup. However, Bateman had his first healthy offseason since he entered the NFL. He signed a contract extension in April, putting the persistent trade rumors to bed. The Ravens moved on from Odell Beckham Jr., leaving Bateman as the clear No. 2 receiver behind Zay Flowers. After hearing all offseason about how they haven’t done enough to get Bateman involved, offensive coordinator Todd Monken and quarterback Lamar Jackson should be plenty motivated to get the ball to Bateman. — Jeff Zrebiec

Buffalo Bills

TE Dalton Kincaid

Other skill players might emerge as the season evolves, but with so many new faces around Josh Allen, drafting most Bills early would be reckless. We just don’t know who will get the touches. But the safest bet aside from Allen himself is tight end Dalton Kincaid. As a rookie, Kincaid was second behind only Stefon Diggs in targets. In 18 games, counting playoffs, he was targeted 102 times for 81 catches, 777 yards and three touchdowns. That last number should go up with Allen’s growing trust. TruMedia calculated that Kincaid caught 80.2 percent of his regular-season targets, third among tight ends behind only Durham Smythe and Cole Kmet. — Tim Graham

Carolina Panthers

QB Bryce Young

It’s hard to imagine last year’s No. 1 pick posting worse stats than he did as a rookie, when Young was the NFL’s lowest-rated passer and finished with just 11 touchdown passes and one 300-yard passing game — in a 33-30 loss to Green Bay in Week 16. The Panthers spent free-agent capital and draft picks to improve their pass protection and surround Young with more playmakers. And while he might not vault to the top of the passing charts — or even the top third — it’s reasonable to think he’ll have a bump in production while throwing to a more explosive receiving corps that includes former Steelers wideout Diontae Johnson and first-round pick Xavier Legette.— Joseph Person

Chicago Bears

WR Rome Odunze

The No. 9 pick will be the third Bears wideout taken in fantasy drafts. Heck, he might even go after tight end Cole Kmet, who is coming off a career season and joining a play caller in Shane Waldron who highlights that position. But on nearly any other team, Odunze wouldn’t be a fantasy afterthought. Coaches are reluctant to talk up any player in spring practices, let alone a rookie, yet Matt Eberflus wasn’t afraid to praise Odunze. He’s made a strong first impression and should have favorable matchups because of the attention DJ Moore and Keenan Allen will attract. — Kevin Fishbain

Cincinnati Bengals

TE Mike Gesicki

Joe Burrow churns out career years for tight ends like he fills news cycles. The latest entry is Gesicki, but unlike C.J. Uzomah, Hayden Hurst and Tanner Hudson before him, Gesicki brings a unique skill set capable of producing dozens of big plays. He’ll be used as a big slot and counted on to terrorize matchups against smaller nickel CBs or slower safeties. More importantly, he could finally give Burrow a tight end capable of regularly exploiting the intermediate-to-deep middle between Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase. Going for 700 yards and seven TDs is possible. — Paul Dehner Jr.

Cleveland Browns

RB Jerome Ford

TE David Njoku finally had his breakout year, and WR Amari Cooper has been steady. The Browns have a lot of weapons if everyone is healthy, but there are questions at multiple spots — and multiple questions at running back with four-time Pro Bowler Nick Chubb and new third-down back Nyheim Hines both rehabbing torn ACLs. Ford was the feature back last year in Chubb’s absence, and he caught a touchdown from Deshaun Watson last September after lining up as a wide receiver. Ford will get snaps and opportunities even if Chubb comes back and plays something close to a full season, and a fantasy bet on Ford includes the chance that Chubb does not return in a full-time capacity. — Zac Jackson

Dallas Cowboys

RB Rico Dowdle

Late last season, Dowdle started to make his presence felt a bit more as the supplemental back to Tony Pollard. With Pollard leaving in free agency and the Cowboys not adding any major upgrades in the draft or free agency, Dowdle should get a bigger opportunity. The Cowboys have been open about their plans to have a committee approach at running back, one that will include veteran Ezekiel Elliott, but Dowdle has the chance to be the lead guy in Dallas, getting the bulk of carries in most situations. — Saad Yousuf

Denver Broncos

WR Marvin Mims Jr.

The Broncos traded Jerry Jeudy in March, removing one of the roadblocks that kept Mims from getting consistent snaps as a rookie. When he was on the field, the second-round pick was electric. Among players with more than 30 targets, only Tennessee’s Chris Moore (12.1), Buffalo’s Khalil Shakir (13.6), San Francisco’s Brandon Aiyuk (12.8) and Houston’s Nico Collins (11.9) averaged more yards per target than Mims (11.4). Broncos head coach Sean Payton has all but promised more work for Mims in his second season. Mims was also a Pro Bowler as a returner and should add value in that department as the NFL adjusts to more returner-friendly kickoff rules. — Nick Kosmider

Detroit Lions

WR Jameson Williams

The Lions’ offense is pretty much set, with few available touches for newcomers. But one player who could have a breakout year is Williams — the 2022 No. 12 pick who could finally be ready for the spotlight. It’s been a roller coaster of a start to his career, but when you talk to folks around the building, they’ll tell you they’ve seen a demeanor shift from Williams. He knows he’ll be counted on following the departure of Josh Reynolds to Denver, and he’s got the talent to be an upgrade. He spent all spring with the first-team offense and appeared more focused than ever before. We’ll see what it leads to. — Colton Pouncy

Green Bay Packers

WR Jayden Reed

You could say last year was Reed’s breakout season, as he led the Packers in catches (64) and receiving yards (793) and tied for the team lead in touchdown catches (eight) as a rookie. However, quarterback Jordan Love and his receivers won’t need the first half of the season to feel each other out like they did a year ago, which could mean even more production for the 2023 second-round slot receiver out of Michigan State. Reed, along with Christian Watson, are the two closest things to a true No. 1 wideout on a team technically without a feature guy at the position. — Matt Schneidman

Houston Texans

WR Tank Dell

Yes, the Texans brought in Stefon Diggs, but look for Dell to bounce back in a big way from the broken fibula that ended his 2023 season. Diggs and Nico Collins will command a lot of attention, and Dell is likely to capitalize. He ranked second on the team with 709 receiving yards and seven touchdowns with 47 catches in just 11 games as a rookie. So a full season, a rekindling of the connection with C.J. Stroud (who targeted him 75 times last year) and the arrival of Diggs should translate into an even greater impact for the young Dell. — Mike Jones

Indianapolis Colts

WR Josh Downs

It feels like Downs has flown under the radar this summer. Sure, the Colts signed Michael Pittman Jr. to a $70 million extension and drafted Adonai Mitchell in the second round this offseason. Both players could be in for big campaigns, but Downs shouldn’t be overlooked. Last year, Downs quickly emerged as Indianapolis’ second option through the air, and he recorded a rookie franchise-record 68 catches for 771 yards and two touchdowns. Alongside a healthy Anthony Richardson, Downs could be in for a more productive sophomore season, evidenced by the numerous times Richardson connected with his top slot receiver during spring practices. — James Boyd

Jacksonville Jaguars

QB Trevor Lawrence

It feels weird to choose Lawrence, but hear me out. He broke through in the second half of 2022 to set astronomical expectations for his 2023 campaign. But with Lawrence playing through several challenging injuries and an offense that — himself included — made too many mistakes, Lawrence’s fantasy breakout was essentially placed on hold. He’s got a veteran group around him, more stability on the offensive line and theoretically should have a healthier season. That recipe would make Lawrence a high-end fantasy QB. — Jeff Howe

Kansas City Chiefs

WR Hollywood Brown

The Chiefs revamped their receiver depth this offseason, and the player who should receive plenty of targets next to tight end Travis Kelce is Brown. Kansas City wants to regain its potency when Patrick Mahomes throws deep. Known for his speed and improved route running, Brown should be able to be effective in the intermediate and deep areas of the field. He was impressive during the offseason program by establishing a strong connection with Mahomes. The Chiefs will likely need to rely on Brown early in the season, too. Second-year player Rashee Rice could be suspended to start the season for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. Rookie Xavier Worthy will be adjusting to the league, too. — Nate Taylor

Las Vegas Raiders

RB Zamir White

If Jerome Bettis was “The Bus,” then White is “The Tank” after this offseason’s workout regimen. There is no guarantee White will be the Raiders’ bell cow after Josh Jacobs left for Green Bay but he has four things going for him: 1) He did well in his four-start audition at the end of last season, running for 397 yards on 84 carries; 2) Coach Antonio Pierce wants to run the ball, never mind all the cool gadgets in Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers; 3) new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has spoken very highly of White, even praising his receiving skills (he only had nine catches for 60 yards in those last four games); and 4) the Raiders haven’t signed another RB yet, so White’s competition is Alexander Mattison, Ameer Abdullah and rookie Dylan Laube. He could probably bench press all three at the same time. — Vic Tafur

Los Angeles Chargers

WR Joshua Palmer

Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler are gone. Those three players have accounted for 48.6 percent of the targets, 52.7 percent of the passing yards and 51.7 percent of the passing touchdowns in Justin Herbert’s career. Someone is going to have to step up and fill the production void — even if Jim Harbaugh wants a more run-heavy offense. I think that player will be Palmer. He has an established rapport with Herbert. He has performed when Allen and Williams missed time with injuries in previous seasons. He is a really well-rounded receiver. Palmer is poised for a career season if he can stay healthy. — Daniel Popper

Los Angeles Rams

TE Colby Parkinson

Obvious responses here include receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, whom Rams head coach Sean McVay wants to deploy in a “throwback”-style Kupp-and-Robert Woods combination. Another clear choice is running back Kyren Williams, who remained hugely productive in 2024 despite missing four games to injury (Williams also hurt his foot and missed most of OTAs this spring but is expected to be a full participant in training camp). My sleepers are where things get a little more interesting — Parkinson, a free-agent addition, is expected to play a big role in this next iteration of McVay’s offense, while second-year tight end Davis Allen had a (cough) significant mental workload in OTAs. Veteran receiver Demarcus Robinson looks like he’s aging in reverse. — Jourdan Rodrigue

Miami Dolphins

WR Jaylen Waddle

This is a tough question for a team that funnels its offense through a few key players. So, I’m cheating a little and going with Waddle, who was a fantasy disappointment in 2023 with a 34th-place finish among wide receivers in .5 PPR scoring. I think he’s in line for a major bounce-back in 2024, primarily because he should see positive regression in the touchdown department. The juggernaut Dolphins offense scored 57 offensive TDs last season, and somehow Waddle tallied only four. His nine red zone targets were closer to River Cracraft (four) than to Tyreek Hill (23). That won’t happen again. If Waddle stays healthy, he’s a good candidate to finish as a top-12 WR — like he was in 2022 — and you can get him much later in drafts than you should be able to for someone with that type of upside. — Jim Ayello

Minnesota Vikings

TE Robert Tonyan

I’m zigging. Well, kind of. Why not have a little fun, be a little different, try to give you a little edge? Tonyan arrived during the spring. He’s a familiar face, of course, having played for all four NFC North teams. Three seasons have passed since his 11-touchdown season, but Tonyan looked spry this spring, and the Vikings might be without elite tight end T.J. Hockenson for the early part of the season. Coach Kevin O’Connell trusts Josh Oliver and Johnny Mundt, but Tonyan could receive some opportunities, and if he does, he could shock some folks with his overall production. — Alec Lewis

New England Patriots

WR Demario Douglas

It’s not often you can consider a team’s leading receiver as a breakout candidate. But such is life for the Patriots, who had Douglas lead the team in receiving yards last season with 561 (no one else topped 419). The Patriots added wide receivers in both free agency and the draft, which could drop Douglas down the depth chart. But he played well enough in summer practices to leave me confident that he can be the kind of shifty slot receiver who builds on his rookie season and puts up yards in what might be a bad offense. — Chad Graff

New Orleans Saints

WR Rashid Shaheed

The undrafted third-year wideout might not carry the recognition that teammate Chris Olave does. But he hauled in as many touchdown receptions (five) last year as Olave on just about half as many receptions (46 catches for Shaheed, 87 for Olave). The speedster already jumped onto the NFL map last season by being a first-team All-Pro and Pro Bowler as a returner, averaging 13.6 yards per punt return along with a touchdown. Given Shaheed’s progression the past two seasons, it feels like there’s more meat on the bone for new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to use him in 2024. — Larry Holder

New York Giants

WR Wan’Dale Robinson

Robinson’s finish to last season provided optimism that the 2022 second-round pick can become a featured piece of the Giants’ offense. He averaged 4.8 catches for 52 yards in the last five games of the season. Not coincidentally, Robinson’s uptick in production coincided with him passing the one-year anniversary of the torn ACL he suffered as a rookie. He likely won’t be a big-play threat or a major touchdown scorer. But he could fill a role similar to Cole Beasley’s when playing for Brian Daboll in Buffalo as a highly targeted weapon from the slot. — Dan Duggan

New York Jets

TE Tyler Conklin

He’s flown under the radar the last two years but has still managed to be one of the more productive tight ends despite abysmal quarterback play and not much help in the passing game around him outside of wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall. Conklin has the 10th most receiving yards and seventh-most receptions among tight ends over the past two seasons. He didn’t score any touchdowns in 2023 through no fault of his own. His numbers should take a jump — especially in the touchdowns department — with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. The two have a built-up chemistry dating back to last year, and Rodgers trusts him as much as any weapon outside of Wilson. — Zack Rosenblatt

Philadelphia Eagles

RB Saquon Barkley

Fantasy owners in keeper leagues across the country likely rejoiced when Barkley signed with the Eagles. Finally, they don’t have to worry as much about the two-time Pro Bowler getting run into the ground because there are no other offensive weapons on the field. Barkley, 27, remains in his prime and joins a stellar backfield behind what should remain one of the NFL’s best offensive lines. His yards before contact should increase, which, given his shiftiness, should yield more explosive runs. New OC Kellen Moore should also maximize Barkley’s threat as a pass catcher; Austin Ekeler and Ezekiel Elliott both logged 50-plus-catch seasons with at least 400 receiving yards while playing for Moore. — Brooks Kubena

Pittsburgh Steelers

TE Pat Freiermuth

The Steelers offer pretty slim pickings, with Russell Wilson being 35 and in his first year with the team, running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren splitting carries and George Pickens likely to draw a lot of attention. Freiermuth has a lot going for him — a contract season, a veteran quarterback and an offensive coordinator (Arthur Smith) who loves to showcase tight ends. Freiermuth hasn’t lived up to his second-round pick status but has shown flashes of his ability (when he stays healthy). He has averaged around 50 catches, 500 yards and four touchdowns over his three seasons despite working with four quarterbacks and a suspect offensive coordinator in Matt Canada. Freiermuth has already shown a good rapport with Wilson and could be used as a No. 2 option for the Steelers. — Mark Kaboly

San Francisco 49ers

WR Deebo Samuel

Fantasy football managers know 49ers pass catchers can be aggravating because there are so many of them. Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk or George Kittle can have 120 receiving yards one weekend and 32 the next. Samuel, however, might have some extra motivation this year. The team has an escape hatch in his contract in 2025, which means this could be a de facto contract year for him. We’re not predicting a 2021-like season for Samuel, the last time he was in a contract year. There are just too many weapons now as opposed to then. But Samuel goes into a different gear when he’s challenged, and his contract situation could be a season-long situation. — Matt Barrows

Seattle Seahawks

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Smith-Njigba was ready to produce at a higher level last season, but his playing time suffered when injuries at offensive tackle prompted Seattle to use an additional tight end at the expense of a third receiver. Smith-Njigba was the odd receiver out to a degree the Seahawks did not anticipate. It’ll be a major surprise if he does not improve significantly upon his numbers from last season (63-628-4). — Mike Sando

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

RB Rachaad White

It seems certain White will have opportunities. He arguably is a better receiver than runner, so he is likely to get touches both ways. The Bucs didn’t bring in a big-name running back to compete with him, so unless Bucky Irving or Chase Edmonds exceed expectations, White is expected to get the majority of the snaps. Last season, the only running back in football who was on the field for a greater percentage of his team’s snaps was Christian McCaffrey. The unknown is how his role will evolve with new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. — Dan Pompei

Tennessee Titans

WR Calvin Ridley

From a 2020 fantasy breakout as a third-year pro in Atlanta, to injury, suspension and Jacksonville — where Ridley had a good, not great, 2023 — to Nashville, it has been a wild and bumpy ride. And this will be a critical season for the 29-year-old Ridley as he tries to re-establish himself as a top-tier receiver. He’s got some things in his favor, like working opposite DeAndre Hopkins, and Will Levis’ love for and proficiency with the deep ball. First-year coach Brian Callahan hopes to transfer the success he had in Cincinnati to the Titans, and while no one would compare Ridley with Ja’Marr Chase, Ridley is the designated big-play guy in this offense. — Joe Rexrode

Washington Commanders

RB Brian Robinson Jr.

Usage remains an unknown variable under new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, especially with a rookie quarterback under center. But the power-running Robinson is expected to be the lead back, with Austin Ekeler handling passing-down duties (though Robinson is an underrated receiver). Kingsbury’s primary running backs with the Cardinals — Kenyan Drake (2019-20) and James Conner (2021-22) — had 18 and 22 rushing touchdowns, respectively, even with a mobile QB in Kyler Murray. Leaning on the run game to help Jayden Daniels’ acclimation to the NFL should also boost Robinson’s appeal. — Ben Standig

TRENDY PICKS

Bill Barnwell identifies three “trendy” Super Bowl picks for 2024 – Houston, Detroit and Green Bay.  After an intense analysis of past “trendy” picks (edited by the DB), he looks at the 2024 contenders:

The trendy Super Bowl picks of 2024

First, let’s establish which teams stand out as likely to draw serious consideration as the sexy Super Bowl picks this season. There’s one obvious candidate that fits all our criteria:

Houston Texans. This is the easy pick. C.J. Stroud emerged as an immediate superstar in Houston, throwing for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns while getting picked off just five times. He followed that with a stunning playoff performance against an elite Browns defense, going 16-of-21 for 274 yards and three touchdowns in a blowout victory.

The Texans lost to the top-seeded Ravens the following week, but they had already proven to be a formidable opponent in the AFC. Having greatly exceeded expectations a year ago before adding key talent such as Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter this offseason, Houston is deservedly going to attract attention as a potential Super Bowl contender in 2024.

There are two other teams that mostly fit the bill here, too …

Detroit Lions. Long-suffering teams that appear to have broken through the doom and gloom of the past are always going to be fun Super Bowl bandwagons to jump on. And the Lions, of course, nearly made it through to the championship game in a single season, as they beat the Rams and Buccaneers and held a 24-7 halftime lead over the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game before collapsing in the second half.

The Lions have a young roster, and they also made meaningful offseason additions to try to fix their obvious weaknesses in the secondary. Having exceeded expectations in back-to-back seasons and coming within a couple bounces of advancing to the Super Bowl, you don’t need to do much imagining to envision a Detroit championship in 2024.

The only reason the Lions aren’t an obvious fit for this list is the presence of Jared Goff, who is 29 and already on the second phase of his career after his initial run with the Rams. We saw him play at an elite level at his best in Los Angeles, so you could argue he doesn’t fit the idea of quarterbacks reaching new heights as part of the trendy teams. At the same time, given that Goff was essentially benched and salary dumped for rebuilding his career, his performance feels different than the typical veteran at the helm of a team turning things around.

Green Bay Packers. The league’s youngest team was propelled forward by a remarkable stretch from Jordan Love, who led the league in QBR over the final seven weeks of the season. The Packers won six of their final eight to sneak into the postseason as the 7-seed, where they promptly embarrassed the Cowboys in Dallas, going up 27-0 before eventually winning by 16 points. They gave San Francisco a run for their money in the divisional round, too, as it took a late field goal miss by Anders Carlson and a touchdown run by Christian McCaffrey with 1:41 to go to give the 49ers a 24-21 victory.

The Packers’ breakout, at least in terms of wins, just wasn’t quite as impressive as most of the others we’ll get to on this list. They had a 7.5-win projection heading into the season and went 9-8, albeit with many of those wins weighted later in the season. I’m optimistic about Green Bay this season and see it as a Super Bowl contender, but it would be getting much more in the way of Super Bowl hype if it had finished 11-6 instead.

How have trendy picks done in the past?

To get a sense of our candidates’ chances of actually living up to the hype, let’s run through the recent past. Going through the beginning of the slotted draft era in 2011, I’ve identified the teams that fit the criteria laid out above and have gone through their history to see what happened next. Did the sexy team emerge as a serious Super Bowl winner? How often did these teams end up crashing to earth?

2023

Jacksonville Jaguars. Last year’s Jaguars felt a lot like this year’s Packers, as a white-hot second half by a young quarterback propelled them into the postseason.

What happened: Missed the playoffs.

2022

Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals were like the 2024 Lions, only taken one step further.

What happened: Lost in the AFC Championship Game.

2021

Cleveland Browns. There were plenty of good vibes surrounding the Browns after their campaign during the COVID-impacted 2020 season. Kevin Stefanski’s work in turning around the organization had earned the former Vikings assistant a Coach of the Year award. Baker Mayfield’s banner season turned the quarterback into a commercial pitchman and a popular MVP pick for the 2021 season.

What happened: Missed the postseason.

2020

Buffalo Bills. The 2019 season was the beginning of the breakthrough for Josh Allen and the Bills.

What happened: Lost in the AFC Championship Game

San Francisco 49ers. After starting his 49ers career 10-22, coach Kyle Shanahan turned things around in Year 3

What happened: Missed the playoffs. Garoppolo was injured and missed 10 games.

2019

Chicago Bears. After years of suffering, the Bears had finally found their quarterback.

Mitchell Trubisky, the team’s No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft, completed two-thirds of his passes and posted a 95.4 passer rating in his second season.

What happened: Missed the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs. Do they qualify here? I think so. Andy Reid had been a regular visitor to the postseason after joining the Chiefs, but his teams with Alex Smith at the helm had gone 1-4, with their sole win coming over a Brian Hoyer-quarterbacked Houston team. Once Patrick Mahomes took over in 2018, though, they looked and felt like a different franchise. He transformed the offense and won league MVP. Kansas City won 12 games and claimed the top seed in the AFC. It blew out the Colts in the divisional round, only to fall just short of the Super Bowl in an overtime loss to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Same old Reid?

What happened: Won the Super Bowl.

2018

Jacksonville Jaguars. One of the league’s longest rebuilds finally turned around in 2017, as the Jaguars followed what the preseason numbers suggested and went 10-6, winning the AFC South for the first time in franchise history.

What happened: Missed the playoffs.

Los Angeles Rams. The team that inspired too many seven-win jokes during the Jeff Fisher era traded away Sam Bradford in 2015 and then moved up for Jared Goff in the 2016 draft with the hopes of breaking that cycle

What happened: Lost in the Super Bowl.

2017

Dallas Cowboys. It feels like Dak Prescott has been the quarterback of the Cowboys forever, but Dallas greatly exceeded expectations in his 2016 rookie season

What happened: Missed the playoffs.

Oakland Raiders. Another long rebuild come good, the Raiders had gone 14 years without as much as a single winning record before going 12-4 in 2016.

What happened: Missed the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins. I have to make the same exception for the Dolphins, who went 10-6 in Adam Gase’s first year at the helm.

What happened: Missed the playoffs.

2016

Cincinnati Bengals. Does Andy Dalton’s breakout season qualify for this exercise? He was in his fifth NFL season, but he was a legitimate MVP candidate for the first and only time in 2015,

What happened: Missed the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings. I’m not sure the Vikings had the same level of Super Bowl hype as many of the other teams on this list, but after an 11-5 season in 2015, you could make a case this was a complete football team.

What happened: Missed the playoffs. Bridgewater suffered a career-altering knee injury in training camp,

2015

There aren’t any good candidates for 2015.

2014

Carolina Panthers. Has it really been a decade since Riverboat Ron’s debut?

What happened: Lost in the divisional round. They were ready, but that dominant season had to wait until 2015, when the Panthers went 15-1 before losing to the Broncos in Super Bowl 50.

Philadelphia Eagles. One year into the Chip Kelly era, everything felt great in Philadelphia.

What happened: Missed the playoffs.

2013

Indianapolis Colts. Andrew Luck turned around the Colts immediately, as the same team that went 2-14 in 2011 to land Luck with the No. 1 pick went 11-5 the following season.

What happened: Lost in the divisional round.

Seattle Seahawks. Another one of the breakthrough young quarterbacks in the newly slotted draft system who came to define the value of having a rookie deal quarterback, Russell Wilson beat out free agent addition Matt Flynn for the starting job in camp and never looked back.

What happened: Won the Super Bowl. Here’s our second trendy team to win a Lombardi Trophy.

Washington. Drafted one pick after Luck, Robert Griffin might have even been more transformative for Washington

What happened: Missed the playoffs.

Other candidates: The Minnesota Vikings broke through with a 10-6 season in 2012, but I don’t think many people were pinning that on the efforts of Christian Ponder, who posted an 81.2 passer rating. Adrian Peterson’s 2,097-yard season won the Vikings back league MVP honors, but they weren’t a trendy pick the following season, as they were projected to win just 7.5 games.

2012

San Francisco 49ers. Let’s finish by looking at 2011’s breakout team and how it became the sexy Super Bowl pick for 2012.

What happened: Lost in the Super Bowl.

What did we learn about trendy picks for 2024?

Frankly, I’m more optimistic about getting behind these trendy picks than I was before I started this exercise. While acknowledging that only two of our 20 picks won the Super Bowl, considering how dominant the Patriots and Chiefs have been and how a handful of others advanced to the Super Bowl, there might be something to jumping on the bandwagon for these teams before they get too full.

With that being said, while no analysis is foolproof, I’d be hesitant to get behind teams that have obvious elements of the prior campaign that aren’t likely to be sustainable in the following season. There are invariably arguments in favor of why those teams are likely to be exceptions to the rules we’ve learned, but more often than not, those arguments tend to fall by the wayside once the new year actually begins.

Of these three teams — the Texans, Lions and Packers — the one that seems most susceptible to taking a step backward is the one that went furthest last season. The Lions went 12-5 and might very well have deserved to beat the Cowboys if not for a questionable refereeing decision, but they had the point differential of a 10-win team. They went 5-3 in one-score games, which isn’t outlandish by any means, but they lost by 32 points to the Ravens and by 15 to the Bears.

Even without an unsustainable record in close games, teams that outperform their point differential in that two-win range still tend to decline. If we look back to 1989 for similar teams — teams that outplayed their Pythagorean expectation by 1.5 to 2.5 wins while winning between one and three more close games than they lost — we get 42 examples. Twenty-two declined, 12 improved and eight kept the same record from the previous season. The average drop off was only about one win, though, which would suit the Lions just fine. With the fifth-youngest roster in the league, they could defy the odds and improve in 2024. I’d still be optimistic about them competing for a title, even as their schedule gets tougher.

The Texans could also struggle to sustain their turnover margin. Houston led the league by posting 14 turnovers in 17 games, which is both a testament to C.J. Stroud’s talent and a product of good fortune. The team recovered 11 of its 17 fumbles on offense, a trait which is not likely to occur again next year. No young quarterback in history has ever been able to sustain the sort of 1% interception rate Stroud ran for an extended period of time; the only guy who has even come close over multiple seasons is Aaron Rodgers.

Stroud will still be very good, but the Texans probably won’t turn the ball over once a game or so again in 2024. They were also surprisingly the league’s fourth-oldest team a year ago, owing to how many free agents general manager Nick Caserio has signed over the past few seasons to fill out the roster. They’re a unique team given that much of their core of stars (Stroud, Will Anderson Jr. and Derek Stingley Jr.) are in their early 20s, and they’ll get some injured players who should be in their primes back for more regular snaps this season. Still, they are definitely older on the whole than you might think, and that could impact their development as a team.

There’s less to worry about on Green Bay’s résumé in terms of sustainability. They were the youngest team in football a year ago, but all of these teams are in great shape and are going to be competitive next season. Winning a title in the NFL is tough, and progress isn’t linear. For every team like the Rams that knocks on the door and keeps pushing before eventually breaking through, there’s a team like the 2017 Eagles or 2020 Buccaneers that makes a sudden leap forward and wins. I’ll keep picking the Chiefs, but after taking a closer look, I wouldn’t fault anyone for jumping on the bandwagons of the Lions, Packers or Texans in 2024.