NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

A tale from Chicago in 2021.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Last month a Chicago resident named Scott Morrow was walking down the street when he suddenly felt a sharp pain and collapsed to the ground. He had been shot in the back and was now in a fight for his life, but as he rode in an ambulance to a nearby hospital, he was inspired by the thought of Justin Fields.

A lifelong Bears fan, Morrow thinks Fields has what it takes to be the best quarterback Morrow has ever cheered for, and he wants to live long enough for it to happen.

“Within a couple moments, I thought well, I’m 41, pretty much all of Chicago has gone our whole lives without even having great prospects for a franchise quarterback, I can’t die before seeing Justin Fields take the field,” Morrow said on 670 The Score. “I don’t plan to die before he’s a Hall of Famer.”

When Fields heard about that, he decided to pay Morrow a visit while he recuperates. Morrow documented it on Twitter.

“Just met Bears rookie QB and future Hall of Famer @justnfields (as well as his lovely parents)! I can’t believe they came out to to visit a little ol’ gunshot victim,” Morrow wrote.

Morrow’s GoFundMe page says that he still has a long road to recovery, after having his spleen and one kidney removed, as well as damage to his stomach, pancreas and abdomen.

GREEN BAY

QB AARON RODGERS has turned down a contract offer recently that would have given him more money but kept him tied down to the Packers under team control.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Aaron Rodgers turned down a contract extension from the Packers this offseason. That news has been reported for months. But none of the reports have provided much meaningful information about the specifics of the Packers’ offer.

Adam Schefter of ESPN tweeted today, “This off-season, the Packers offered Aaron Rodgers a two-year contract extension that would have tied him to Green Bay for five more seasons and made him the highest-paid QB and player in football.”

But what does that really mean? Rodgers is currently under contract through 2023, and what he wants in any new deal is what he currently doesn’t have: Financial guarantees that end the year-to-year flexibility that the Packers enjoy with his current contract. The Packers can easily afford to cut Rodgers and move on to Jordan Love after the 2021 season, and Rodgers doesn’t like that. He wants a contract that makes it financially difficult or impossible for the Packers to move on.

If the Packers offered Rodgers $50 million non-guaranteed salaries in 2024 and 2025, that would be meaningless to Rodgers, even though it would technically qualify as a two-year extension that makes him the highest-paid player in the NFL, as Schefter’s report states.

The Packers’ longstanding practice has been to avoid significant guarantees beyond a player’s signing bonus. For the most part, that has served them well: Green Bay rarely finds itself in the uncomfortable salary cap position of having a past-his-prime player who’s still owed significant guaranteed money.

But Rodgers doesn’t want to be treated the way the Packers ordinarily treat players. He thinks he has earned a contract that breaks with the Packers’ past precedent and gives him real guarantees about his future. Whatever the Packers have offered Rodgers so far, it isn’t what he’s looking for.

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com with more on the strategy of Rodgers:

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has said nothing about his plans or the 2021 season, despite the fact that training camp opens next week. Don’t expect Rodgers to reveal his plans until the last minute.

It’s not a matter of procrastination. Rodgers undoubtedly knows what he’s doing. But he has no reason to disclose his plans, for one very important reason.

The Packers will conduct their annual shareholder meeting on Monday. Team CEO Mark Murphy will address the assembled fans. It will become their first opportunity to voice their feelings about the chaos and uncertainty of the past three months, sparked by the draft-day disclosure that the 49ers tried to trade for Rodgers, followed by a storm of reports pointing to the reality that Rodgers wants out.

He still wants out. That hasn’t changed. Both sides have blame in this. On Monday, with Rodgers’ status still unresolved, Murphy not Rodgers will have to deal with it. And Rodgers won’t do a damn thing to make it any easier on Murphy.

Hey, that’s how it goes when you’re dealing with a “complicated fella.”

NFC SOUTH

TAMPA BAY

QB TOM BRADY has missed some of his many previous White House options, but for the 2020 Buccaneers’ celebration he has made it today.  Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:

With Joe Biden and not Donald Trump currently residing in the White House, some wondered whether Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady would join teammates at coaches for a visit to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Brady is there.

Scott Smith of Buccaneers.com tweeted a photo of the group, which has Brady standing in the front row, next to coach Bruce Arians. (Arians’ face once again matches the color of his shirt. I starting to think that counts as a superpower.)

The will-they-or-won’t-they go to the White House question became a controversial hot button under the Trump administration. Brady, who had a #MAGA hat in his locker room early in the original Trump campaign and who has described Trump as a friend, became the most obvious candidate to not show up for an event hosted by the man who is reviled by the former president and his loyalists.

NFC WEST

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Ouch!  A big setback to the Rams and their running game.  This from NFL.com late Tuesday morning:

The Los Angeles Rams’ leading rusher from 2020 won’t be leading them into the 2021 season.

Starting running back Cam Akers suffered a torn Achilles while training, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported Tuesday, per a source.

AFC WEST

DENVER

The Broncos profess to have no idea who their starting quarterback will be on Kickoff Weekend.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

A week from today, the quarterback battle in Denver kicks off in earnest when the Broncos report for training camp on July 27.

To this point, the Broncos brass has simply laid the groundwork for the competition between Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater. Before heading into summer break, coach Vic Fangio noted that it was much too early to make any assumptions about where the QBs were at in the race for the starting gig.

When training camp finally opens, the evaluation will be no holds barred.

NFL Network’s James Palmer noted Monday on NFL NOW that the Broncos believe just 2 to 3 percent of their QB assessments have taken place. The bulk of the eval is coming during camp practices and the preseason.

Don’t expect a quick decision from the Broncos brass, either.

“This could go, to my understanding, through all three preseason games before they make a decision,” Palmer added. “That’s where they stand right now when they look at both of these quarterbacks.”

The NFL winnowing down the preseason schedule to three games with the addition of a 17th regular-season bout has conjured questions regarding how coaches would divvy up those ramp-up games. A week’s break before the regular season could encourage coaches to continue using the third game as a dress rehearsal for starters. Or we could see the trend of most stars and starters sitting the entire exhibition season.

With Denver amid a vital QB competition, we may see the starters in all three tilts.

The Broncos kick off their preseason schedule against the Minnesota Vikings — Bridgewater’s first club — on Saturday, Aug. 14, at 4 p.m. ET. They then face the Seahawks on Aug. 21, at 10 p.m. ET. And round out the slate versus the L.A. Rams on Aug. 28 at 9:05 p.m. ET.

The Broncos QB battle will be one of the biggest storylines when training camps get fully underway next week.

Fangio repeated all spring that the plan is for the signal-callers to split reps 50/50 — perhaps not half-and-half every day, but when the overall reps are analyzed, the plan is for each to get equal opportunity.

Lock entered last season with promise after a solid end to his rookie campaign. A bevy of boneheaded mistakes characterized his sophomore campaign, however, and sunk Denver’s playoff chances. The Broncos believe the third-year QB has improved his footwork and accuracy this offseason. The biggest thing for Lock to prove is that his decision-making is massively better. Those mental trials can only truly be judged versus live defenses in preseason games.

Bridgewater, on the other hand, doesn’t have Lock’s big arm, but he’s a steadier signal-caller who makes quick decisions, gets the ball out, and can ensure the offense is always in the optimal play-call.

The biggest question in the battle will be who makes the least amount of game changing mistakes.

Those preseason games will be massive in determining who starts Week 1 under center for a playoff-ready Broncos roster. As such, it makes sense it might take all three preseason tilts for Fangio to make his decision.

LAS VEGAS

The president of the Raiders, Marc Badain, suddenly resigns after three decades with the team.  NFL.com with the vanilla version:

Marc Badain first worked for the Raiders as a summer intern when the team was still in Los Angeles. About three decades later he played an instrumental role in the organization’s relocation to Las Vegas.

On Monday, the Raiders announced Badain has resigned as team president.

“Today I have accepted Marc Badain’s resignation as president of the Las Vegas Raiders,” Raiders owner Mark Davis said in a statement. “Marc has been an integral part of the Raider Family for 30 years. Rising from a training camp driver to president of the entire organization. His efforts in helping to build the most magnificent stadium in the sports and entertainment capital of the world will never be forgotten. I wish Marc, his wife Amy, daughter Ali, and sons Bernie and Zach all the best in whatever the future holds. Once a Raider always a Raider.”

Badain became president in 2015 after serving as the interim in the wake of Amy Trask’s 2013 resignation. He was previously the club’s chief financial officer and Trask’s assistant.

“The successful construction and operation of Allegiant Stadium has been unequivocally the most challenging part of my 30 years with the organization,” Badain said in a statement, per NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport. “Seeing it through to the end has been rewarding beyond measure. Together the Raiders and Las Vegas accomplished what seemed impossible. Now that the project is complete it is time for me to focus on my family and look ahead to new pursuits. I am forever grateful to MD for his unwavering support and friendship. I wish him and the Raider family the best. I will always feel a part of the team because everyone knows … once a Raider always a Raider.”

Davis announced that Dan Ventrelle will serve as the interim president. Ventrelle has been with the organization for 17 years, most recently as an executive vice president and general counsel.

“His experience on both the football and business sides of the organization make him the best choice to lead the Raiders organization at this time,” Davis said. “The greatness of the Raiders is in its future and the future starts now.”

Ed Graney of the Las Vegas Review Journal with some context and praise for Badain:

It’s a cynical business, the NFL. Stay in long enough and the emotion of separation becomes tougher to identify.

That wasn’t the case Monday.

Marc Badain resigned as president of the Raiders for unknown reasons beyond a released statement about focusing on his family and other pursuits, ending a three-decade run with the organization.

He began as a training camp driver and departs one rung below owner Mark Davis.

He didn’t just climb a ladder. Try Everest.

“On the personal side, Marc and his family are so important to me that you can’t describe it,” Davis said. “On the business, side, he did magnificent things for the Raiders that probably wouldn’t have been done without him.”

Badain, on Davis via text: “I love him like a brother.”

A sudden move

Days and weeks will pass, and it’s likely a more specific narrative for Badain’s departure will become clearer. Maybe it’s as he said. Time to move on. Maybe there is more to it.

It was absolutely sudden. A caught-off-guard moment.

For now, however, be wary of speculation on social media.

Davis said it was Badain’s decision to resign and that he neither requested nor desired it. So the Raiders, a week from opening training camp, move forward with 17-year employee and executive vice president and general counsel Dan Ventrelle as interim president.

That’s how it works.

“You never want people to resign,” Davis said. “As I told our staff (Monday), in this business, you get jaded. Some of your best friends are traded, cut, go away as free agents, retire, resign.

“We traded Ken Stabler for Dan Pastorini, who broke his leg and Jim Plunkett comes in at quarterback and we win two Super Bowls with him. Art Shell was hired twice as coach and fired twice. These were some of my best friends. But you can’t let things get in the way of business and take away your overall vision.”

Say this for Badain: Of all that he accomplished as team president, he was at his best regarding the most difficult and appointed task.

It was 2015 when Davis bestowed him the title, even though Badain had been working in such capacity since Amy Trask resigned as CEO two years earlier.

At the time of making things official, Davis said he waited to name a president because of the uncertain stadium situation in Oakland. That whoever assumed the role would inherit the responsibility of leading such a massive undertaking as finding the team a new home, in the Bay Area or elsewhere.

Fast forward a few years — and thousands of meetings later — and ground was broken on the 65,000-seat structure in which the Raiders would call home.

“I don’t think Allegiant Stadium is built without Marc,” Davis said. “He did so much work on it, in the community and talking with public officials, coordinating everyone together to get it done. I’m so grateful for all that he did for us in getting the stadium built.”

It’s the business

As he addressed his staff Monday, Davis couldn’t help but remember the story of Marcel Reece, a former fullback with the Raiders and now team executive who was in attendance. Davis called it a “gut punch” when the Raiders released Reece in 2016.

He was hired as a senior adviser to the owner last year.

“When we cut him, I told him how bad it hurt me,” Davis said. “But that’s the business. And now he’s back with us. Our job is to get better each day. Winning on the field and off it. That has to be the main focus of everyone in the organization. You can’t take things personally.

“Marc Badain’s tenure with the Raiders is something he should be very proud of, his family should be proud of and all of Raider Nation should be proud of. He’s family and always will be.”

They move forward. That’s how it works.

This from Scott Gulbranson:

@LVGully

Just my opinion: Marc Badain is well respected all over Vegas and I’m certain what’s next will be in town and something worthy of his record of success #Raiders

AFC EAST

MIAMI

The DB is of a mind that the Dolphins have built a pretty good roster that would respond better to the touch of a veteran like Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers – and should not be entrusted to the uncertainty of QB TUA TAGOVAILOA.  It seems like the Miami braintrust might be having similar thoughts.  Adam Beasley of ProFootballNetwork.com:

If football weren’t such a cold, ruthless meritocracy, there’d be a little more sympathy and certainly a lot more patience for Tua Tagovailoa…and perhaps not as much chatter about the Dolphins being interested in Deshaun Watson. The Miami Dolphins’ second-year quarterback is the first to admit he wasn’t great as a rookie. But he certainly wasn’t terrible either.

Tua Tagovailoa’s rookie season with the Miami Dolphins

Justin Herbert’s topline stats were unquestionably better. He had the best statistical season by a rookie ever. But pocket passers typically take longer to adjust than mobile quarterbacks. Plus, the advanced stats tell a more complete story.

Tua actually was more aggressive than Herbert, throwing to the sticks more and completing longer passes through the air, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Plus, Tua had an inferior offensive line. He was given, on average, thirteen-hundredths of a second less time to throw than his Chargers counterpart in 2020.

And he did all of this at far less than 100 percent. Tua made his first NFL start 11 months after reconstructive hip surgery and only recently has felt like his old self.

Observers late in the season noticed a reluctance to push the ball downfield, but there’s an easy explanation for that — his throws were all arm. Tua didn’t have the leg and core strength and pliability needed to really whip it.

“I think my hip feels 10 times better than it did last year and the confidence level for myself, I feel really confident coming into this second year after that injury two years ago,” Tagovailoa said recently.

It’s shown up on the field. While his five-interception minicamp practice made national headlines, it wasn’t reflective of his body of work during spring ball. The Dolphins were encouraged by the significant progress he made from the start of OTAs, a source tells PFN.

And yet, there’s a chance none of this matters.

Are the Dolphins still in the market for Deshaun Watson?

We’re told the Dolphins have enough lingering questions about Tua’s ability and future that they would still consider trading for Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson if his legal situation is somehow resolved in time for the 2021 season.

That, of course, is an enormous if.

Watson stands accused of sexual misconduct by nearly two dozen massage therapists who are suing him.

Watson is also under investigation by both the NFL and Houston police due to the allegations. There are so many moving parts here that even a settlement — which alone would be a Herculean task, considering the sheer number of plaintiffs — might not be enough for the league to green-light a trade.

But that has not stopped the Dolphins from keeping an open mind, according to multiple sources briefed on the organization’s thinking.

(Some important context: Miami would have competition for Watson should the Texans shop him. The Eagles are said to be just as interested in Watson and have far more future draft capital to offer the Texans.)

Miami might eventually need to make a decision on Tua with incomplete information

The Dolphins have never seen Tua play in the NFL totally healthy. They’ve never seen what he can do with weapons like Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle, who were both added this offseason.

And they’ve never seen him play in a system specifically designed for him, with full mastery of the playbook. Tua acknowledged in May that he didn’t know his assignments as well as he should have as a rookie.

That admission prompted fierce (and frankly over-the-top) criticism nationally. But those who know him well were not surprised by his honesty and vulnerability. Tua is said to be incredibly open to coaching and has made it a point to push himself beyond his comfort zone this offseason. Those close to him marvel at his transformation physically and mentally in the past six months.

“I would say there’s no extra motivation for me,” Tagovailoa said, when asked specifically about the Watson chatter. “It’s really just playing to the standard and the level of expectations of this organization; but then also the standard that I have for myself, and expectations I have for myself.”

Ultimately, it’s the Dolphins’ expectations that matter the most

While the Dolphins are just $5.5 million under the 2021 salary cap with three unsigned draft picks, there are accounting mechanisms in place that would allow them to absorb Deshaun Watson’s contract and the cap hit that would come with trading Tua without significantly impacting their roster.

It’s Year 3 of the Brian Flores era. For all the good work he’s done since taking over for Adam Gase, he hasn’t yet made the playoffs. This is the year the rebuild needs to come together.

But with the regular season just eight weeks away, there’s still a chance that rebuild veers in a direction never imagined with the Dolphins drafting Tua fifth overall just 15 months ago.

THIS AND THAT

VAX FIGHT

Michael Irvin is adamant that any player should take one or two jabs for the team.  Bills WR COLE BEASLEY pushes back.  Nick Fierro of SI.com:

Cole Beasley has been largely silent on Twitter for the last month or so.

But the Buffalo Bills’ veteran wide receiver felt compelled to respond to former Dallas Cowboys star Michael Irvin’s contention that players who didn’t get vaccinated against COVID-19 don’t want to win as badly as those who did.

Beasley, of course, is at the forefront of the crusade against vaccinations, and he appears to have plenty of support in a locker room that could eventually become fractured over this issue if the NFL follows through on plans to treat teams differently who reach the 85% vaccination threshold and the Bills don’t wind up among them.

Quarterback Josh Allen and safety Jordan Poyer are among the Bills who have expressed reservations about the vaccines.

According to Irvin, a Hall-of-Famer who finished a his career with nearly 12,000 receiving yards, players who choose not to get vaccinated aren’t totally committed to winning.

Beasley, not surprisingly, disagrees.

“You can be vaccinated and not do all the right things football wise to be at your best,” he Tweeted. “All it means is players are gonna be out there with covid and we won’t know cause they only get tested once a week so the NFL can make their money.”

Teams who have reached the 85% threshold will essentially be able to operate in pre-pandemic conditions. Teams that fall below will be hit with restrictions similar to those in place for all teams last year, placing them at a competitive disadvantage.

Irvin, according to ESPN, is upset that the Cowboys have not reached the threshold.

“Yeah, and it should upset them,” Irvin said. “It should upset them. Dude, you’re not thinking right. You’re not thinking right. Whatever you got, I don’t give a damn. … Nothing else can be more important.

“You’re not going to get this [winning a Super Bowl] easily. Nothing else could be more important. … Jimmy [Johnson] made that abundantly clear [during Irvin’s playing career]. Nothing else is more important. And not being one of the [teams] says there’s other things to a great number of people on this team that are more important than winning championships, and that makes me worried.”

Irvin went on to point out that missing time in the NFL is not like most other sports, especially basketball.

“Somebody in that damn locker room [should say], ‘Hey man, we’re going to have a chance, are you vaccinated?'” Irvin said. “Let’s go through this because this could be a two-week healthy dude missing games, and in this league, this ain’t the NBA. In this league that could be it for you. The right person misses two weeks, that’s it. Your ass is out.”

The Bills and most other NFL teams start training camp on or around July 27. It’s not clear if the Bills are one of the 13 believed to have reached the threshold.

WEAPONS RACE

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com ranks the weapons each NFL QB has at his disposal – 32 (Texans) to 1 (Buccaneers) to 32.  We go with the bottom 5 and top 5, editing out the discussion of those in the middle:

Every year, we get new reminders for just how important it is to surround your quarterback with the right talent. Just take the quarterbacks from the class of 2018. While Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield was thriving in 2020 behind a great offensive line and with the right coaching staff, Sam Darnold’s third and final season with the Jets was a waste of time. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson spent most of a playoff loss to the Bills patiently waiting for any one of his receivers to get open, while Buffalo’s Josh Allen enjoyed having Stefon Diggs on his side of the field.

Of course, while Super Bowl LV came down to a dismal Chiefs offensive line, let’s consider who got there. Kansas City has surrounded Patrick Mahomes with some of the best weapons in football for each of his first three seasons as a starter. Tom Brady looked like a new man in Tampa Bay, where he went from playing with a tired group of receivers in New England to an embarrassment of riches in Florida. This stuff matters.

Let’s do something that doesn’t really matter but is still fun anyway: We’ll rank each of the league’s 32 teams by their skill-position talent without including the impact of the quarterback, offensive line or scheme. That’s a very important caveat! Imagine if you took each team’s running backs and receivers and dropped them into an average offense with an average coach and an average starting quarterback. Who would have the best offense in football?

Here are a few other things to keep in mind before we get started:

This is about only 2021 performance. We’re not considering a player’s contract status, cap hit or long-term prognosis. We want to field the best possible group of weapons for a 17-game season in 2021. Since we don’t know how rookies will turn out, we’re using draft status and history to inform their chances of making an impact.

Wide receivers are weighted more heavily than running backs or tight ends. The league values wide receivers by giving players at the top of that market much larger deals than their friends at running back and tight end. The top average annual salary for a running back is Christian McCaffrey’s, at $16 million per season. At tight end, George Kittle is tops at $15 million. Twelve different wideouts are on multiyear deals averaging more than $16 million per year. As a result, I’ve weighted wideout talent as more significant than similarly gifted players elsewhere, although there’s a bigger drop-off between the top tight ends and the players in the second and third tiers at that position.

32. Houston Texans

2020 rank: 27 | 2019 rank: 16

The Texans might rank 32nd in a lot of categories by the time the season is over. The move to swap DeAndre Hopkins for David Johnson and a second-round pick was a disaster on its face and doesn’t look much better a year later, with Johnson ranking 41st in success rate in his first season with the Texans. Former Houston coach/general manager Bill O’Brien’s swap of a second-rounder for Brandin Cooks looks much better, with the oft-traded wideout producing a 1,150-yard campaign in 2020, but the decision to sign Randall Cobb was even worse than it seemed at the time.

In many cases, the names are bigger than the games on what amounts to a great fantasy football team from 2016. New general manager Nick Caserio signed veterans such as Rex Burkhead, Donte Moncrief and Mark Ingram this offseason to fill out the roster this spring, with Phillip Lindsay as one of the few younger additions to the fold. This is a skill-position group of stopgaps for a franchise stuck in neutral.

31. Detroit Lions

2020 rank: 25 | 2019 rank: 18

The Lions are at least trying to generate future capital and generally go with younger players. They chose a 2022 third-round compensatory pick over possibly franchising Kenny Golladay, and while that pick might be more valuable to the organization in the long haul than a player who turns 28 in November, the Lions have left themselves with the worst wide receivers room in the league. Nominal top options Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams are both best served as the third or fourth member of a passing attack while running 10-15 go routes per game. Fourth-rounder Amon-Ra St. Brown would be depth-chart fodder in some organizations; here, he might have a chance to lead all wideouts in targets.

Things are better elsewhere in the lineup. Tight end T.J. Hockenson isn’t in the top tier at his position, but he finished as the TE5 in fantasy football last season and could amass a preposterous target share from Jared Goff this season. D’Andre Swift showed promise after the Lions finally stopped giving the ball to Adrian Peterson, but the new regime shows little faith in the 2020 35th overall pick, having already imported Jamaal Williams before bringing in Todd Gurley for a visit. Williams was effective for the Packers last season, but new coach Dan Campbell & Co. need to see what they have with Swift. Politely, I will suggest that doing so will not cost the Lions any chance of going to the postseason.

30. New York Jets

2020 rank: 29 | 2019 rank: 20

General manager Joe Douglas’ goal was to get 2021 No. 2 pick Zach Wilson more weapons than his predecessor, Sam Darnold. At wide receiver, the Jets have certainly succeeded. Corey Davis might never live up to being the No. 5 overall pick in the 2017 draft, but he racked up 984 yards in 14 games for a run-first Titans offense last season and should be the focal point of a similar play-action scheme for New York this season. Second-rounder Elijah Moore is getting as much hype as any rookie in the NFL this offseason, and veterans Keelan Cole and Jamison Crowder are solid options in the slot.

The problem is, well, everything else. Chris Herndon’s expected breakout season was DOA in 2020, and while I like the addition of former Bills tight end Tyler Kroft, the Jets aren’t thrilling at tight end. They’re totally anonymous at running back, where fourth-rounder Michael Carter might win the job by default ahead of Tevin Coleman and La’Mical Perine. It’s probably the right idea to save at tailback for a team running the Shanahan/Kubiak offense, but it’s hard to get enthused about the backs on new coach Robert Saleh’s depth chart.

29. Philadelphia Eagles

2020 rank: 10 | 2019 rank: 4

The biggest drop-off on this year’s list belongs to the Eagles, who will be relying on back-to-back first-rounders at wide receiver to kick-start their offense. I’m wildly excited to watch DeVonta Smith after the 2020 Heisman Trophy winner looked like the best player on the field for most of the College Football Playoff, but if Smith isn’t an immediate superstar, this could threaten Detroit’s receiving corps. It’s way too early to give up on 2020 first-rounder Jalen Reagor, but the TCU product was anonymous as a rookie. Behind him is disappointing second-rounder J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Travis Fulgham and Greg Ward, who the Eagles seemingly plan on moving on from every year, only for Ward to be their No. 1 wideout by mid-November. That can’t happen again.

While there are big names elsewhere for the Eagles, we haven’t seen steady production out of either running back Miles Sanders or tight end Dallas Goedert. Sanders was efficient as a runner last season, but he struggled with fumbles and had no impact as a receiver. A slight uptick in Goedert’s numbers was offset by the fact that he missed the better part of five games with injuries before a Week 17 white flag inactive. Zach Ertz is nominally included here, but he’s unlikely to be on Philadelphia’s Week 1 roster. There are plenty of possibilities here if the young draftees take a step forward, but seeing will be believing in Philly.

28. Indianapolis Colts

2020 rank: 26 | 2019 rank: 12

New Colts quarterback Carson Wentz will leave behind those Eagles in 2021, but while he’s blessed with an impressive offensive line in Indianapolis, this is another team counting on its young players to develop. The most prominent veteran at the skill-position spots here is T.Y. Hilton, who didn’t bounce back in 2020 after injuries impacted his 2019 season. 2019 second-round pick Parris Campbell has basically lost his first two seasons to injuries, with a knee issue costing him the final 14 games of 2020. The hope is that Michael Pittman Jr. breaks through as a No. 1 receiver, but even if he does, will there be much around the 2020 second-rounder? Tight end Jack Doyle has been around seemingly since the Peyton Manning era, but is Mo Alie-Cox going to have a Logan Thomas-style breakout in 2021?

Seven picks after the Colts drafted Pittman, they used the 41st selection on another key contributor in running back Jonathan Taylor. The Wisconsin product broke out over the final six games of 2020, finishing second among all backs with 741 rushing yards over that time frame. While 253 of those yards came in a Week 17 romp over a Jags team that might as well have been on the beach already, the one-two punch of Taylor and Nyheim Hines works. The story at receiver, at least for now, is more about hope than anything else.

27. New England Patriots

2020 rank: 21 | 2019 rank: 9

Rookie quarterback Mac Jones’ weapons at Alabama would have come in ahead of the players he’ll line up alongside with the Patriots in 2021.

26. Chicago Bears

2020 rank: 28 | 2019 rank: 17

At least for one season, Allen Robinson’s career of playing with overmatched, desperate quarterbacks could come to an end. Justin Fields is, at the very least, a better prospect than any of the passers Robinson has worked with regularly during his NFL career, and it should hopefully unlock a new level from the franchise-tagged receiver.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars

2020 rank: 31 | 2019 Rank: 32

The big upgrade the Jags made this offseason isn’t included as part of this analysis, but No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence won’t lack for weapons in his rookie year. There might not be a No. 1 wideout in the mix, but D.J. Chark looked like he was on his way to becoming that guy in 2019, and Laviska Shenault should benefit from playing for a better offensive staff in 2021. Marvin Jones should be a consistent No. 3 target, although it took three 110-plus-yard games last December to get the veteran’s 2020 numbers up to respectable. There’s absolutely nothing in the cupboard at tight end, so expect plenty of three-wide sets from new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and coach Urban Meyer.

Undrafted free agent James Robinson came out of nowhere and was a totally viable starting running back, which is why the decision to draft Travis Etienne in Round 1 in April felt frustrating. Leaving the draft capital aside, though, a Robinson-Etienne one-two punch could be impressive.

24. Washington Football Team

2020 rank: 32 | 2019 rank: 28

There were signs of life around Terry McLaurin last season! At running back, Antonio Gibson was a Week 1 starter and proved to be an effective player despite his lack of experience, averaging 4.7 yards per carry while finishing sixth in the league in DVOA. The other surprising seasons weren’t quite as impressive; J.D. McKissic’s 80-catch effort was mostly a product of Alex Smith tossing the former Seahawks tailback checkdowns, while Logan Thomas ranked 35th among tight ends in yards per target. They were both more effective in fantasy football than the real thing.

23. Atlanta Falcons

2020 rank: 12 | 2019 Rank: 10

As it turns out, trading Julio Jones has deleterious effects on your spot in these weapons rankings. Atlanta still has one star at wide receiver in Calvin Ridley, but if Ridley’s foot issues linger into the season, the depth chart at wideout would be absolutely horrific.

22. Las Vegas Raiders

2020 rank: 24 | 2019 rank: 23

The Raiders keep hanging around this spot while they try to find an identity at wide receiver. Of course, their No. 1 weapon is a true superstar in tight end Darren Waller, who followed a 1,145-yard campaign in 2019 with a 1,196-yard season

21. Miami Dolphins

2020 rank: 30 | 2019 rank: 30

Last year in this space, we finished the Dolphins blurb by suggesting that they would add at least one and possibly two starting wide receivers after the 2020 season. Enter Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle.

20. Los Angeles Chargers

2020 rank: 16 | 2019 rank: 11

As impressive as Justin Herbert’s rookie season was, it’s hard to point to one of his weapons as having a similarly exciting campaign.

19. New Orleans Saints

2020 rank: 6 | 2019 rank: 7

The Saints’ situation at the skill-position spots is a microcosm for the moves they had to make to clear out nearly $100 million in cap space this offseason. Are their stars still here? Yes. Sean Payton’s two best weapons are Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, and they’re back for another go-round. Are the pieces around them as good as they were over the past couple of years? Absolutely not.

18. Arizona Cardinals

2020 rank: 9 | 2019 rank: 27

For now, there’s DeAndre Hopkins, and then there’s everyone else.

17. Denver Broncos

2020 rank: 14 | 2019 rank: 31

What looked like a cast of budding stars heading into 2020 didn’t pan out. Courtland Sutton tore an ACL in the opener, and while Tim Patrick had a quietly solid season in Sutton’s absence, it took a Week 17 performance against a lowly Raiders defense to get Jerry Jeudy’s rookie numbers looking decent.

16. New York Giants

2020 rank: 7 | 2019 rank: 8

For as many promising pieces as the Giants sport, the offense doesn’t add up to the sum of its parts. As exciting as Saquon Barkley might look on a highlight reel, the former Penn State star has now missed most of one season with a torn ACL and hobbled through a second with a high ankle sprain. Kenny Golladay, the team’s new addition at wideout, missed most of 2020 with hip and hamstring injuries. Darius Slayton repeated his 2019 numbers, but he did so on 176 more snaps. Tight end Evan Engram continues to struggle with drops and averaged just 6.0 yards per target last season. First-round pick Kadarius Toney could be a valuable weapon in the slot, but his presence conflicts with Sterling Shepard’s best spot, just as was the case with Golden Tate two years ago.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers

2020 rank: 13 | 2019 rank: 15

The Steelers have become a wideout factory in recent years, so perhaps we shouldn’t have been surprised when third-round pick Chase Claypool immediately established himself as an impact contributor….So, why did they fall back two spots from where they were a year ago? I’m not as optimistic about Smith-Schuster, who had one of the most spectacular sophomore seasons in league history and then followed it with an injury-hit 2019.

14. Baltimore Ravens

2020 rank: 20 | 2019 rank: 26

After watching Lamar Jackson fruitlessly wait for receivers to come open in the AFC Championship Game, the Ravens acted and added Sammy Watkins and first-round pick Rashod Bateman to their receiving corps.

13. Cincinnati Bengals

2020 rank: 23 | 2019 rank: 13

I’m always a little skeptical about the impact of rookies when I make these rankings, but it’s not hard to be more optimistic about Ja’Marr Chase than the vast majority of other first-year wideouts. The scary thing for the AFC North is that Chase might not even be the team’s top target as a rookie, given that Tee Higgins was wildly impressive while Joe Burrow was on the field and Tyler Boyd has settled in as one of the league’s top slot receivers.

12. San Francisco 49ers

2020 rank: 18 | 2019 rank: 24

Oh, if the 49ers could keep everyone healthy on the field at the same time!

11. Green Bay Packers

2020 rank: 19 | 2019 rank: 19

If Aaron Rodgers wasn’t going to get any new weapons last year, the future Hall of Famer was just going to make some for himself. Out of relative anonymity came Robert Tonyan, who went from catching 14 career passes between 2018 and 2019 to finishing as the TE3 in 2020. It’ll be near-impossible for Tonyan to keep up his touchdown rate (21.2%) or catch rate (88.1%) in 2021, but he gave the Packers a second option in the red zone behind Davante Adams.

As for Adams? He was virtually uncoverable for most of the season; I don’t think I’ve ever seen the primary option in an offense wide open more frequently in tight situations than Adams was last season, when he racked up 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns across 13.5 games.

10. Los Angeles Rams (before Cam Akers injury)

2020 rank: 11 | 2019 rank: 1

The offense might not be quite as glamorous or devastating as the peak with Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks, but Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp keep plugging along as one of the best receiving duos in football…While Matthew Stafford might transform the offense, Cam Akers is the one whose production seems most up in the air. The Rams took their sweet time in getting to Akers as their featured running back; he got 14 carries in the opener and then didn’t top 10 carries in a game again until Week 13, at which point they gave him 132 attempts over his final six games. In the divisional-round loss to the Packers, Akers took 96% of the snaps on offense, the sort of workload the Rams gave to Gurley at his most dominant. If Stafford elevates the offense and Akers gets that sort of snap share, he could be one of the most productive backs in the league.

9. Buffalo Bills

2020 rank: 8 | 2019 Rank: 25

So much for the inevitable clash between Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, huh? Allen found an immediate rapport with his star wideout, who went on to lead the NFL in both receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535). Diggs excelled in his debut season with the Bills, who seemed to find valuable receiver contributors up and down their roster. Cole Beasley had his most productive season out of the slot and Gabriel Davis emerged as an immediate contributor, but this even goes down to Isaiah McKenzie, who scored five touchdowns across 30 catches.

How, then, are the Bills one spot below where they were a year ago? The running back and tight end spots are more about scheme and rotation than standout talent.

8. Seattle Seahawks

2020 rank: 15 | 2019 rank: 29

Depending on how you view running back Chris Carson, it’s either a big two or a big three for the Seahawks. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf were devastating in the first half of last season before the Seattle passing attack fell off during the final two months; the two starting wideouts accounted for nearly 47% of Russell Wilson’s pass attempts, as no other player on the roster was targeted more than 50 times.

7. Carolina Panthers

2020 rank: 5 | 2019 rank: 22

The Panthers rued the absence of their biggest star last season, as running back Christian McCaffrey reminded us to be cautious about using even a spotless health record to predict future availability. After playing nearly every snap in 2019, CMC missed 13 games with ankle, shoulder and quad injuries…If McCaffrey comes back strong, few teams can boast a big three quite as impressive as that of McCaffrey and wideouts Robby Anderson and DJ Moore.

6. Kansas City Chiefs

2020 rank: 1 | 2019 rank: 2

This is the lowest arsenal ranking for the Chiefs in the Patrick Mahomes era, in which his weapons have previously come in first, second and first again. The drop-off comes after Travis Kelce produced arguably the greatest season by a tight end in league history and Tyreek Hill chipped in with 1,276 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns. Nobody — not the Seahawks, not the Vikings, not anybody — had a better one-two punch of receiving weapons than the Chiefs did a year ago, and they’re both back for 2021.

Everything else doesn’t look quite as good. The earlier versions of these teams had Kareem Hunt, and while Clyde Edwards-Helaire was expected to be instantly impactful as Kansas City’s primary running back, the LSU product was mostly anonymous as a rookie.

5. Minnesota Vikings

2020 rank: 17 | 2019 rank: 5

It’s hard to think of a trade that looks more like a win-win for both sides after one season than the swap that sent Stefon Diggs to the Bills and allowed the Vikings to draft Justin Jefferson. All Jefferson did was produce one of the most impressive seasons by a rookie receiver in league history, as he led all receivers in yards (1,330) and yards per target (11.0) after entering the starting lineup in Week 3. Adam Thielen’s volume suffered, with the veteran losing a little over two targets per game from his 2018 peak, but he still scored a ho-hum 14 touchdowns.

At this point, everybody’s on the same page with Dalvin Cook: When the Vikings’ star running back is healthy, he’s right alongside Derrick Henry as the most fearsome back in all of football. Counting on him to be healthy can be dangerous. He missed two games in 2019 and had to leave three more with a shoulder injury. Last season, he sat out in Week 17 and missed a game and a half with a groin issue. Cook does more in 13 or 14 games than most backs do in a full season, but if we ever get to see the 2017 second-rounder piece together a full 17-game campaign, he’d be a threat to hit 2,000 yards.

4. Cleveland Browns

2020 rank: 2 | 2019 rank: 3

While Nick Chubb missed time last season, the biggest obstacle standing in the way of his path toward a rushing title isn’t injuries; it’s the presence of a second standout back in Kareem Hunt. It’s difficult to think of a team that had a top two at running back quite as impressive as Cleveland’s duo, and while backs aren’t as valuable as wide receivers in the modern league, the Browns get plenty of production out of Chubb and Hunt. They’re also deep at tight end, although Austin Hooper’s numbers fell back to earth without the benefit of the garbage time he enjoyed in Atlanta.

At wide receiver, though, the Browns might not be quite as impressive as the names suggest. Jarvis Landry finished with career lows in receptions (72) and receiving yards (840) coming off hip surgery. More disconcertingly, Odell Beckham Jr. was off to a slow start even before tearing an ACL in October. He’s now four years removed from being a superstar wideout, with his numbers dropping across the board after dealing with an ankle injury in 2017. OBJ is still only 28, but it would be a surprise if he again looked like the guy who tore up the league with the Giants from 2014 to ’16. If that Beckham shows up in 2021, the Browns would have the league’s best group of weapons on offense.

3. Tennessee Titans

2020 rank: 22 | 2019 rank: 21

Since the start of 2019, Derrick Henry has 3,567 rushing yards. Dalvin Cook, who ranks second in the league over that time frame, is 875 rushing yards behind. Henry’s role in the passing game is limited to catching the occasional screen, but even without that work, he’s 315 yards from scrimmage ahead of the other backs. He also leads the league with 35 touchdowns over that spell, and that’s without considering his postseason work. I’m scared about his workload, but he had 386 carries between the regular season and the playoffs in 2019 and didn’t look any worse for wear in 2020.

Of course, the Titans rose further up the charts after trading for Julio Jones, who will form a potentially devastating top-two receiver duo alongside A.J. Brown. They both have injury concerns — Jones was out for half of 2020 and Brown is coming off double knee surgery — but there were 11 receivers in the NFL who averaged more than 10 yards per target on 50 targets or more last season, and two of them now play in Tennessee. The Chiefs will be more explosive because they have Mahomes, but the Titans are about as close as it gets when it comes to the possibility of big plays given their talent at running back and receiver.

2. Dallas Cowboys

2020 rank: 3 | 2019 rank: 6

Just about everything else besides the weaponry went wrong for the Cowboys last season. Their defense couldn’t stop anybody. Quarterback Dak Prescott and their best offensive linemen were injured. Everybody’s numbers were down after Prescott was replaced by Andy Dalton and the team used backup tackles for virtually the entire season, but rookie wideout CeeDee Lamb looked like a star. We know what Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup can do with a healthy Prescott, and while tight end Blake Jarwin missed most of the year with a torn ACL, Dalton Schultz stepped in and racked up 615 yards with four touchdowns. That’s more receiving yards than Dallas Goedert has produced in any of his three NFL seasons.

The one weapon whose stock is down after 2020 might be Ezekiel Elliott. For all the talk about how Elliott was the guy who made Prescott and the rest of the offense tick, the running back looked entirely ordinary without his star quarterback. Elliott posted career lows in most categories and finished with a below-average DVOA, in part because he fumbled six times on 296 touches. His numbers should bounce back some with Prescott & Co. returning to the fold, but the arguments that he was a scheme- or line-transcendent back are firmly in the past. This is a passing team now.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2020 rank: 4 | 2019 rank: 14

Nobody in the league combines Tampa’s combination of top-level talent and supreme depth. Bruce Arians’ team has a true No. 1 receiver in Mike Evans. The guys behind him are massively overqualified for their roles; it’s an embarrassment of riches to have Chris Godwin as a second wideout and even a limited version of Antonio Brown as the No. 3. Scotty Miller would be a burgeoning starter for some teams; here, he’s a No. 4 who averages 9.5 yards per target.

The Bucs might not be quite as impressive at the other spots, but their starters at running back (Leonard Fournette) and tight end (Rob Gronkowski) were legitimate difference-makers during the postseason. They’re also blessed with deep depth charts at both spots, given that Fournette will be spelled by Ronald Jones and Gio Bernard, while Gronkowski will split time with Cameron Brate and the returning O.J. Howard. You could make a case for the Cowboys at No. 1 if you think Elliott is still a superstar back, and the Titans have a more impressive top three, but I think the Bucs are as good as it gets for skill-position talent.