Peter King thinks that Roger Goodell is not going anywhere soon.

There was a sense in recent years around NFL ownership that Goodell would shepherd the NFL through the CBA and media negotiations of 2020 and early 2021 and then, with his contract winding down at the end of the 2023 season, work long enough to groom his successor, then fade off into some new life by age 65.

Not so fast. Looking into the future of Goodell, 62, in the past few days, two things are apparent. He hasn’t decided yet if he will leave the league when his current contract expires in three years. There’s a sense from associates that he could stay for a year or years beyond that. Also, a clear majority of owners want him to stay beyond 2023, pointing to the recent accomplishments of the Goodell-led league office—labor peace for the next nine seasons and the $113-billion media deal that’s the envy of every sport in America. If the league isn’t broke, they posit, why try to fix it?

Goodell is approaching his 15-year anniversary as commissioner (Sept. 1), continuing a major run of continuity for the league at commissioner. He’s the third in the last 61 years; Pete Rozelle took over in early 1960, Paul Tagliabue in November 1989, and Goodell in 2006. That’s continuity on a Steelers-coach level. Digging into this over the past few days, I’ve found three reasons why Goodell is likely to stay on the job for three or more seasons:

1. Goodell doesn’t have anything else he’s dying to do. Some people who have built $17-billion businesses might have a hankering to get into the private-equity business, or cryptocurrency, or some niche thing like owning a business far from football. But Goodell isn’t that guy. He doesn’t have a big hobby, other than golf, and he has no interest in doing that every day.

2. Goodell still loves football. Solving football issues, going to games, staying on top of the changing sports landscape . . . Those are things he relishes. I’m told one of the things that gave him big-time juice was figuring a way to run the league through the craziness of 2020—the draft from his basement, the daily testing of players and staffers around the league, getting the train to run on time. He’s still into the job. As one associate told me: “There’s a lot of new avenues available for the NFL to grow—international, sports betting, growing the game. That’s more interesting to Roger than just doing something to make money. That’s never been his thing.”

3. There’s no logical successor. Three successor candidates internally, all age 50 or younger, loom: chief media and business officer Brian Rolapp (point man on the mega-media deals), EVP of Football Operations Troy Vincent (runs officiating and helped keep the game on the field in 2020), and chief strategy officer Chris Halpin (eyes on the future, including international expansion). But Goodell has been such a domineering presence that most of the league candidates have been laboring in the shadows. Vincent’s well known as a former player. Owners and executives know Rolapp and Halpin, but they’re anonymous to coaches, players and fans. It would serve Goodell well to put them more in the public eye, and to put more on each of their plates—and less on his own—to judge their worthiness for the job.

None of the four major sports leagues (NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL) has gone outside its own game to hire a commissioner for the last 28 years, since Gary Bettman moved from being an NBA executive to NHL commissioner in 1993. A struggling league might look to an Amazon or Google for an outside-the-box, new-age commissioner candidate. But the NFL’s the king of the hill, and it’s unlikely the league would look outside for a non-football candidate.

Other names the league could consider: Falcons CEO Rich McKay, whose age, 62, would hurt him but who has been an invaluable asset on the Competition Committee; and Rams COO Kevin Demoff, 44, who has won raves for his work with the L.A. stadium project and the hiring of Sean McVay, and has a deep internal knowledge of league affairs. Chiefs owner Clark Hunt would be a good candidate, but I don’t think he’s interested. I’m told owners, overwhelmingly, want an NFL person, likely from inside the league office, to succeed Goodell.

So I’d look for Goodell to stay on through 2024 or ’25, maybe grooming a successor in the last couple of years. Goodell has been the quarterback and head coach on virtually every decision of substance in the league for almost 15 years—which is his job—and so how would anyone know if a Rolapp has the leadership qualities to run a multi-billion-dollar business? No one else has had to do it since 2006. “Roger’s got to get some people inside the league to touch the football,” said one league insider.

Whoever succeeds Goodell is going to have another job to do. The bell will continue to toll on health and safety, and the NFL’s ramrodding of the 17-game schedule this year leads most observers to think 18 games is on the way. How can a league that professes to care about the long-term health of its players subject them to 17 games (in 2021) and maybe 18 (by 2025 or ’26) without imaginatively pursuing ways to assure players they’re not going to be guinea pigs for the NFL’s almighty dollar? The owners have dollar signs dancing in their heads over more inventory; the players should have a roadblock dancing in theirs. That may be the first major issue for the NFL’s fourth commissioner since the Kennedy Administration.

NFC NORTH

GREEN BAY

The Packers think that QB AARON RODGERS is bluffing.  Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:

The Packers won’t trade the quarterback who doesn’t want to play for them because the Packers don’t believe he won’t play for them.

That’s the gist of a recent report from Matt Schneidman of TheAthletic.com, and it makes plenty of sense. Schneidman writes that the Packers would trade Rodgers if the Packers “believed he was truly committed to never playing for them again,” and if the Packers “wanted to get draft picks and players in return instead of forcing him to retire.”

While to a certain extent obvious given the current posture of quarterback and player, the news here is that the Packers don’t buy the idea that Rodgers will refuse to show up and play for them. The question of whether they’d prefer draft picks and players and letting him play elsewhere over the money they’d get back from him if he retires (nearly $30 million in bonuses plus salary avoidance, starting with $14.7 million this year) doesn’t become relevant until the Packers conclude that he will never play for them again.

For the reason, the Packers remain dug in. They won’t trade Rodgers because, as a threshold matter, they don’t believe that he won’t show up.

That leads back to the prevailing question regarding Rodgers. Will he show up?

The problem for the Packers is that, even though they could have gotten a significant haul in return for Rodgers if they’d decided to trade him earlier this year, the seats have filled up elsewhere. The Broncos, and maybe the Raiders, remain the only possible trade partners (especially if Rodgers wants to play in or close to California). At some point, it makes sense to kick the entire issue until after the season — especially since any picks the Packers would peck for Rodgers would come from the 2022 draft, anyway. Let the 17 regular-season games of 2021 play out, let the teams that inevitably will decide to make a quarterback change realize that they’ll be in the market, and then invite them all to the table for a bidding war to get Rodgers.

The Broncos will still be firmly in play. The Raiders, if they go four for four in playoff failures during Jon Gruden’s return to the NFL, could be much more motivated to make a move. The Seahawks, if they can’t fix the Russell Wilson situation, could be interested. The Saints could be in play, if the post-Brees plan doesn’t work. The Panthers continue to search for a franchise quarterback; they’ll know after a year if Sam Darnold is the answer.

The Steelers likely will be looking for a replacement for Ben Roethlisberger. What if the Titans decide they’d rather have Rodgers than Ryan Tannehill? What if Carson Wentz doesn’t bounce back in Indianapolis? What if the Eagles decide that Jalen Hurts won’t be a franchise quarterback, or if Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t take the next step in his second season in Miami?

Then there’s the injury question. There’s always a chance that a quarterback who is entrenched as of June 1, 2021 will be unable to play in 2022, or possibly beyond, due to an injury that happens this season. While unlikely, it’s still possible. That possibility becomes another reason for the Packers to wait.

So at this point, then, there’s no reason for the Packers to be anything other than dug in. If Rodgers is going to force a trade before early 2022, he needs to do something to convince the Packers that he’ll never play for them again. Saying things like “beautiful mystery” and “I love my teammates, I love the coaching staff, I love the fans” won’t cut it. For the Packers to make a move before March 2022, Rodgers needs to make them convinced that he’s moving out of Green Bay for good.

MINNESOTA

The Panthers are going all in with letting their fans in on negotiations for contracts and trades with some insider videos.  One of them exposed the Vikings,  Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:

The Packers aren’t the only team in the NFC North with a potentially awkward quarterback transition.

As disclosed in a video published by the Panthers, the Vikings called Carolina in an attempt to trade up from No. 14 to No. 8 in the first round of the 2021 draft. Per a league source, the Vikings were targeting quarterback Justin Fields.

Previously, it had been believed the Vikings would have seriously considered Fields if he had slid to No. 14. Their interest in him moves to a new level if they were considering trading up to get him.

It’s a fascinating development, for several reasons. Most obviously, the Vikings will now contend twice per year with Fields, as the new quarterback of the Bears. Chicago made the move from No. 20 to No. 11 to get Fields, cutting off Minnesota’s effort to get him.

Then there’s the fact that trading up for Fields would have underscored the fact that incumbent starter Kirk Cousins has, at most, two years left in Minnesota. With a contract that pays out $21 million in 2021 and $35 million in 2022, Cousins has said publicly that he’s not interested in extending his deal. If the Vikings privately tried to renegotiate the Cousins contract before free agency or the draft and if Cousins refused, the Vikings may have decided not simply to protect themselves against Cousins leaving in free agency but to affirmatively seek out his replacement.

If they’d gotten Fields, that would be the obvious vibe — Cousins on a two-season clock, with the possibility that the Vikings would try to trade him in 2022. That possibility now must be factored into the assessment of Minnesota’s quarterback situation moving forward. If Kellen Mond, picked by the Vikings in round three, checks all the boxes as he learns the NFL game behind Cousins, the Vikings could decide after 2021 to move on to Mond and to trade Cousins.

It won’t be an easy needle for the Vikings to thread. First, Mond has to be ready. Second, the Vikings would need to find a team that, based on Cousins’ performance in 2021, would want to trade for him. But if Cousins plays well enough in 2021 to make him attractive to another team, it becomes harder for the Vikings to turn the page in 2022.

That actually could make it better for the Vikings to have Mond instead of Fields. With Fields as a top-10 pick, it would have been much harder to keep Cousins through 2022. With Mond, it becomes a lot easier to pull it off.

And if, by 2022, the Vikings think Mond is ready and if they believe Cousins has taken Minnesota as far as he ever will, nothing stops Minnesota from making Cousins the highest-paid backup quarterback in NFL history, while Mond becomes the current lowest-paid starter.

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

Peter King on WR JULIO JONES and his path out of Atlanta:

Let’s take a moment to address Julio Jones, another player who has asked to be traded. The Falcons are entertaining offers for the 32-year-old receiver, who has $38-million coming over the next three seasons, mostly for salary-cap reasons, and could trade him as early as Wednesday, when teams are allowed to divide a departing player’s cap hit between 2021 and ’22. Three things about this story:

• The Falcons are pushing hard to pay nothing of his future compensation, while inquiring teams want some relief on a player entering his 11th year who might be starting to break down. Can the Falcons’ rookie GM, Terry Fontenot, stay firm on that?

• ESPN reported last week the Falcons have been offered a first-round pick for Jones. I’m skeptical of that, but we’ll see. “If Atlanta had that offer,” one GM with interest in Jones told me last week, “they’d have made the deal and just said we’ll announce it next week.” It could be that the Falcons may end up with a first-round pick in a future draft beyond 2022, but I believe they have not been offered that yet.

• I was told a while ago by a source I trust that the Falcons would accept a hard second-round pick in 2022 (no condition on Jones’ playing time) with no responsibility to pay Jones any of the $38 million he has coming. That seems like the most logical outcome, and my guess is a hard second-rounder is already on the table from some team. Pro Football Talk reported Sunday that people around the league feel Tennessee is the most likely candidate to get Jones, and I could see that. The Titans would have to move money around this year, but they’re in good shape to handle Jones’ contract in 2022 and ’23.

Mike Florio says the team that gets Jones should realize he thinks he is underpaid (despite evidence to the contrary):

In two days, the window opens for a potential Julio Jones trade that minimizes the 2021 cap consequences for the Falcons. Wherever Julio lands, the new team could eventually have a different kind of cap consequence.

According to a source familiar with Jones’ past contractual expectations, the team that trades for Jones needs to account for the very real possibility that Jones will want a new deal.

Currently, he’s due to make $15.3 million this year, $11.513 million next year, and $11.513 million in 2023. That’s $38.326 million over three years, an average payout of $12.775 million annually.

Sure, Jones’ current deal has an average annual value of $22 million. His new team, however, is getting him on a three-year, $12.775 million deal. That’s how Jones or any other player would view it.

The question is whether he’ll want a new deal on the way in, or whether he’ll want one after the 2021 season. Either way, the notion that the Jones contract is attractive because an elite player can be gotten for $12.775 million per year over three years overlooks the reality that, sooner than later, Jones will want his contract to be adjusted — especially if he has a huge first year at his next destination.

And that could be one of the various reasons why the Falcons haven’t been able to get their expected return of a first-round pick with no commitment to pay any of his salary. The team that buys the Jones contract also will be buying the reality that Jones will want that contract to be torn up.

More thoughts on Jones and the WR market in general from Jason LaCanfora ofCBSSports.com:

For the second straight year an uber-accomplished wide receiver with no off-field blemishes is being marketed extensively via trade, and, for the second straight year, the deal is quite likely to produce far less in return than what many fans might imagine.

Forget what you may be reading amid the breathless reporting about Julio Jones. There is no feeding frenzy, there is no race between teams to try to snag the future Hall of Famer before anyone else. There is no line of owners eager and willing to pay him over $15M next season. If there were, this trade would have been agreed to in principle before the draft and the announcement this week (after June 1 for cap purposes for the Falcons) would be a mere formality.

That ain’t the case.

If anything, it’s starting to feel a little bit like a year ago, when Bill O’Brien gave away DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals for what amount to a second-round pick, with Houston also absorbing a salary dump of David Johnson’s contract in the process. And O’Brien deserves all the ridicule for all of the ridiculous things he did in his brief-but disastrous tenure as the coach and GM, but the fact is there was not a host of teams eager to give Hopkins the $40-odd million in new money he craved, nor are there a surplus of teams eager to take on Jones’ deal now.

Hopkins is younger and healthier and he should have netted more than a second-round pick … but he didn’t. And, yes the pandemic had a chilling impact on NFL free-agent spending across the board, but it was also clear that the receiver position was hit particularly hard. JJ Smith-Schuster didn’t have close to the market he thought he might, Kenny Golladay was trying to create a high-end market deep into the process before the Giants bid against themselves to pay him $36M the next two years. Guys like TY Hilton and Sammy Watkins had limited markets.

For all of the record-setting numbers being put up, and despite this being the most pass-happy era in NFL history, there was not a feeding frenzy for receivers, and even now the Falcons are dealing with market factors that are less-than-ideal to get close to full value for the totality of production Jones has amassed through his first-ballot Hall of Fame career. So it might be time to take a step back and view this eventual trade not through the prism of the moment, but through a several year portal into what has been going on at this position. The college game set the trend with the spread offenses and using four-wides as a base package and throwing the ball around vertically and horizontally like never before. They are developing receivers and corners at a high rate because of those changes, which have bled into the pro game and resulted in consecutive draft classes loaded with pass catchers who won’t be making any real money by NFL starting standards for at least three years.

We have seen traditionally receiver-needy franchises like the Ravens (also at the forefront of the analytics movement in this sport), twice in the last three years opt to draft receivers in the first four rounds of a draft rather than “win” a bidding war for one in free agency. We saw Bill Belichick make three quick and calculated moves very early in free agency to land two receivers and a move tight end, then sit back and pick up another tight end when the market was soft and still be in position to grab Jones for a second-round pick (or whatever) tomorrow if he chooses.

The Falcons had to wait until after June 1 to actually execute this transaction because they are desperate for the cap relief it can provide at that point. Make no mistake – this is a salary dump and they need that savings to operate because their former regime habitually overrated their talent and overpaid for players and ran a middling NFL team like it was perpetually on the cusp of a Lombardi.

Which brings us to this spring. Had they been able to deal him before the draft – again, crawling with receivers of all shapes and sizes for all seven rounds – maybe they could have truly manifested this “race to trade for Julio Jones, people keep alleging is going on. When in reality, as we have continued to report, the Falcons have been peddling a 32-year old receiver who has hurt much of last year, desperate to get a first-round pick, with a small handful of teams monitoring the situation and mostly scoffing at the entire process.

You can try to masquerade a salary dump as a high-value football trade in the media (apparently with great success). But you can’t with other front offices, and, sadly for the Falcons, O’Brien is not running an NFL team anymore. Again, if the Falcons had any leverage or strength here, there was a handshake deal in April. Think about how many NFL trades get reported on at the combine every February, which cannot be formally announced until the start of the league year weeks later in March. The Falcons aren’t doing a pre-draft media blitz trying to drum up interest in the player and bracing their fans for his exit, if they already have a boffo market for him.

The question then becomes, if they do get basically what Hopkins fetched a year ago, are there bigger picture conclusions to draw. Pandemic or not, NFL owners knew they were each going to pocket $3B over the next decade from TV revenues alone when they waded into free agency, and no receiver got close to the $20M per year the Cowboys gave Amari Cooper a few years ago. And with all of their young receiving talent, Dallas might be a year away from trying to move Cooper, and I suggest they don’t get close to what they originally gave the Raiders to land him (first-round pick). And consider, the Chiefs bought very low on Tyreek Hill in the aftermath of his legal problems, making him an extreme bargain and one more factor that teams can use to try to tamp down a surge in spending at this position.

If the Browns were to move Odell Beckham, Jr. for any reason, do we think they would be able to get close to the package John Dorsey sent to New York for him in the first place (Beckham’s $65M in guarantees at signing his extension with the Giants back in 2018 still leads the receiver position, according to Spotrac)? The Saints seemingly started entertaining the idea of possibly trading Michael Thomas shortly after that deal was done. And, again, while we can knock O’Brien all we like for the Hopkins trade, it was the receiver’s contract demands – well known throughout the industry – that also limited his field of actual suitors.

Seems to me, there aren’t that many teams eager to pay $20M for receivers. The idea that a great QB – especially once he starts making $40M a year – can help develop them at a cheaper rate, seems to be resonating. It will be very interesting to see if 2019 receiver first-round draft picks like Hollywood Brown and N’Keal Harry get their fifth-year options for 2023 picked up (at a cost of around $12M). As our cap and contract expert Joel Corry put it to me recently –  “My advice to them would be to have a career year.” Indeed.

If Ju-Ju couldn’t get $10M this year, and opted to stay put (like Hilton), and the top guys could not push back to $20M a year, are we certain a strong upper-middle class will develop between $12-$15M? Or will they be squeezed out in part by yet another wave of college standouts ready to make the leap? If the Falcons end up moving Jones for what the industry expects, it won’t be great news for receivers, again.

TAMPA BAY

A question for Peter King:

On Tampa Bay’s continuity. From Yves Lachance, of Montreal: “I always believed that bringing your good players back was of great importance and the Bucs did that, but I wonder if maybe they did too much of it in bringing back all their 22 starters from last year. I heard several times from football coaches and GMs that a team just cannot stay static and hope to be as good as the previous year, because everybody else is doing changes, adjustments, upgrades and adapt to a new reality and if you stay were you are you will not get better and maybe you’ll regress a little and your opponents will catch up to you. Should the Bucs have been more pro-active in bringing new blood to the team?”

Good point, Yves. The thing is, we just don’t know, because in modern football, I don’t think a team has brought back the 27 players who played the most at season’s end (including one who didn’t, O.J. Howard, but I count him because he was hurt but would have been in that group) plus specialists plus GM and all key coaches. It’s an incredible job by GM Jason Licht, super-glueing the team together for one more Super Bowl run. I tend to think you need a little new blood to freshen things up . . . but that can be a cliché too. This will be a fascinating chemistry experiment to follow this year.

NFC WEST

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Sean McVay thinks he hit the jackpot with QB MATTHEW STAFFORD and DC RAHEEM MORRIS.  Peter King:

 I think this was interesting, from a person with good knowledge of the Rams, on coach Sean McVay: “I haven’t seen Sean so happy, so engaged, probably since 2017. He’s really excited about working with Matthew Stafford. You can feel he’s confident that Stafford’s a great fit for what Sean wants to do. And he really likes the energy of [new defensive coordinator] Raheem Morris. He brings it every day.”

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

Peter King says the Vegas odds are pointing to an 0-17 Houston team in 2021:

The early betting lines on Houston Texans games show them to be every bit the expansion team they are. The lines set by Westgate Las Vegas for the 17 regular-season games of the Texans show the wise guys think Houston could go 0-17. Game-by-game:

September: Jacksonville by 3 over Houston, Cleveland by 13.5, Carolina by 4.

October: Buffalo by 14, New England by 6, Indianapolis by 11.5, Arizona by 10.5, L.A. Rams by 8.5.

November: Miami by 7.5, Tennessee by 8.5, N.Y. Jets by 1.

December: Indianapolis by 7, Seattle by 7, Jacksonville by 4, L.A. Chargers by 4.5.

January: San Francisco by 13.5, Tennessee by 6.

Average line: Foes by 7.8 points per game over Houston.

Lines can change and certainly will change as the season goes on. But imagine the precipitous drop your team has taken if, in the span of one short offseason, you’re posted as the underdog twice to a 1-15 team.

Quite a comedown for a team that has won the AFC South in four of the last six years. Reminds me of that classic NFL Films line by the former Houston Oilers head coach, Jerry Glanville, when he said to an official he thought had just blown a call: “You know what NFL stands for? Not For Long, if you keep making calls like that.” This is probably the most precipitous drop in recent memory by a franchise to rock-bottomville.

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND

Peter King is also thinking about the future of Bill Belichick:

Bill Belichick turned 69 in April. Twelve years ago, he said he wouldn’t be coaching in his seventies. Two years ago, he said on WEEI in Boston: “When I said it, maybe I didn’t know what 70 felt like.” So how much longer will he coach? Belichick’s not one to talk openly about his plans, or even privately about them. Maybe he doesn’t know. But I get four feelings about him:

• This probably won’t be his last year, and I doubt that 2022 will be. He’s a young 69, maybe not in the effervescent way of fellow 69er Pete Carroll (seven months older than Belichick).

• The way Belichick is, I doubt sincerely he’d leave the Patriots with a dim future. He’ll view as part of his legacy the shape he left the franchise. That’s why Mac Jones falling to New England at 15 this year was so important to New England’s long-term future—it allows Belichick to feel like there’s a good chance the team now has its quarterback for the post-Brady period.

• I don’t think he hangs on just to break Don Shula’s all-time record for coaching victories if he thinks it’s time to go after, say, 2023 or ’24. On the all-time coaching wins list (including playoffs), Shula is first with 347, George Halas second with 324, Belichick third with 311. It may take Belichick four years to get those 37 wins. Maybe three or five—who knows? It’s certainly within reach, but I don’t see it being Belichick’s end-game.

• I’m sure, as a dad, Belichick wanted to help his kids on career paths if they wanted the help. Amanda is a lacrosse coach at Holy Cross. Steve, 34, is a Patriots defensive assistant with rising importance. Brian is the team’s safeties coach. Steve’s married, Brian’s slated to get married this summer. The kids are on their way, with helpful assistance from their father.

What it all means: Belichick can walk away on his terms, when he wants. And if the team progresses the way he thinks it will, he can walk away feeling good about the future of what he leaves behind.

THIS AND THAT

PETE PRISCO’S TOP 100

The personal list of Pete Prisco’s Top 100 NFL players is a good space-filler for June:

Quarterbacks drive the NFL in every way imaginable.

Now it’s more than ever. It’s why they are pushing back against their employers, with quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson all hinting that playing for another team might be a good option.

That’s because their importance and value has never been greater, especially in an era of wide-open football.

My 2021 NFL Top 100 list is just more proof of that.

There are five quarterbacks in the top 10, with Patrick Mahomes at the top. The others are Rodgers, Tom Brady, Wilson and Josh Allen. That doesn’t even include Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, who was a top 10 player last year after earning MVP honors in 2019.

When he was seventh on my list last year, I wrote about how quickly things change in this league. He wasn’t even on the list the year before. This year, that’s Allen of the Buffalo Bills.

He was nowhere on my list last year, even though I thought he had a chance to make big strides in 2020. I just didn’t think he’d make the strides that he did. Now he’s 10th on this list.

I did have a Josh Allen on the list last year — but it was Josh Allen of the Jaguars, who didn’t come close to playing to that level in 2020 as injuries hurt his numbers.

Buffalo’s Allen is now an MVP candidate, even if there are some out there who still wonder if he’s a one-hit wonder. They shouldn’t. He’s a star now, one of the many who make up this list.

In addition to the five quarterbacks in the top 10, there are nine other quarterbacks on the list. That’s a total of 14, or almost half of the starters in the league.

Quarterbacks rule the NFL, and they always have.

Now there is no doubt about it.

1 Patrick Mahomes

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS QB

Even though he didn’t win a second straight Super Bowl, he’s still the best quarterback in the league. He would be the first pick in any open draft of the league’s players.

2 Aaron Donald

LOS ANGELES RAMS DE

He was again dominant for the Rams defense, winning Defensive Player of the Year honors for the third time in 2020. He had 13.5 sacks. When he was hurt in the playoff loss to the Packers, you could see the difference in the defense.

3 Aaron Rodgers

GREEN BAY PACKERS QB

Happy in Green Bay or not, the reigning MVP remains one of the league’s best players. I still think he ends up back in Green Bay. Why let him go?

4 Tom Brady

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS QB

Those who doubt him learned another lesson last season: Stop it. He had some rough moments in November, but he was outstanding down the stretch and throughout the playoffs on the way to another Super Bowl victory. He’s the GOAT.

5 Travis Kelce

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS TE

He was second in the league in receiving yards with 1,401 yards, which is amazing for a tight end. He also had 11 touchdown catches on his 105 receptions. He is the best tight end in the league, on his way to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

6 T.J. Watt

PITTSBURGH STEELERS OLB

He led the NFL in sacks with 15 and was the runner-up as Defensive Player of the Year, despite missing one game. He is also a force against the run.

7  Davante Adams

GREEN BAY PACKERS WR

He led the NFL in touchdown catches with 18, even though he had little help from the other receivers opposite him. He averaged 98.1 yards per game, the best in the NFL.

8  Russell Wilson

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS QB

He played loose and free early last season and had an MVP start. He cooled some down the stretch, but he remains capable of winning an MVP award.

9  Myles Garrett

CLEVELAND BROWNS DE

He had 12 sacks in 14 games and showed his ability to be a game-changer rushing the passer. If he can play an entire season, he should be a Defensive Player of the Year candidate this season.

10  Josh Allen

BUFFALO BILLS QB

In his third season, he blossomed into an MVP candidate. His ability to move and make plays made him a tough quarterback to defend. The biggest growth, though, came from the pocket.

11  Derrick Henry

TENNESSEE TITANS RB

He rushed for an NFL-leading 2,020 yards last season, getting the Titans to the playoffs again. He is a bruising runner who has emerged as one of the best weapons in the game.

12  Stefon Diggs

BUFFALO BILLS WR

He led the NFL in catches with 127 and yards with 1,535 in his first season with the Bills. He helped make Allen an MVP candidate last season.

13  Tyreek Hill

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS WR

He scares defenses with his big-play ability, which opens up the Chiefs offense. He can’t be handled in one-on-one situations. He had a career-best 15 touchdown catches last season.

14  Jaire Alexander

GREEN BAY PACKERS CB

He has emerged as one of the best cover players in the league. He isn’t a big corner, but he makes up for it with his aggressive style.

15  Jalen Ramsey

LOS ANGELES RAMS CB

He was back to being a top-level corner last season in the Rams defense. He can excel at man coverage, but he’s improved in his zone play as well. He can take away a receiver in a game, which has great value.

16  Trent Williams

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS OT

After coming over in a trade from Washington, Williams was dominant as the starting left tackle for the 49ers. He remains one of the league’s best and was rewarded with a new contract that makes him the highest-paid tackle in the NFL.

17  Nick Bosa

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS DE

He missed 14 games last season after tearing his ACL in Week 2 against the Jets. He should be full-go this season, which means he will be back to wreaking havoc on quarterbacks.

18  Zack Martin

DALLAS COWBOYS OG

He remains a top-level offensive lineman, who excels in the run game and in pass protection. He was the lone bright spot on an injury-plagued Dallas line last year.

19 Dalvin Cook

MINNESOTA VIKINGS RB

He finished second in the league in rushing with 1,557 yards and also rushed for 16 touchdowns. His yards-per-rush average of 5.0 shows how impressive he is as a big-play runner.

20  Khalil Mack

CHICAGO BEARS OLB

He had nine sacks and continued to be a force off the edge. He hasn’t had double-digit sacks since 2019, which is a concern. But he is still a top edge player.

21  Christian McCaffrey

CAROLINA PANTHERS RB

He was limited to three games last season due to a variety of injuries. He rushed for 225 yards in those three games, also scoring six touchdowns. Healthy again, he should be back to putting up numbers among the best backs in the league.

22  George Kittle

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS TE

Injuries limited him to eight games last season, but he still caught 48 passes with two touchdowns. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the two best tight ends in the game.

23  Deshaun Watson

HOUSTON TEXANS QB

If he can remedy his legal issues, he is still one of the game’s best quarterbacks. He’s coming off an amazing season where he led the league in passing yards, playing with a bad team.

24  Xavien Howard

MIAMI DOLPHINS CB

He led the NFL in interceptions with 10 and limited opposing passers to a completion percentage of 51.5 when throwing at him. He is entering his prime, turning 28 in July.

25  Joey Bosa

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS DE

Injuries limited him to 10 starts last season, which is why his sack number dropped from 11.5 to 7.5. But he still remains a handful off the edge for any offensive tackle.

26  Quenton Nelson

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OG

He is one of the best run-blocking players in the game, but his pass protection is good as well. He is a complete player who always seems to find a way to get a highlight-reel block in every game.

27  David Bakhtiari

GREEN BAY PACKERS OT

He tore his ACL in a December practice last year to cut short another impressive season protecting the blindside of Aaron Rodgers. He remains one of the best pass-blocking tackles in the game.

28  Julio Jones

ATLANTA FALCONS WR

Injuries limited him to nine games last season, which cut his catches down to 51 from 99 in 2019. He still averaged 15.1 yards per catch, which shows he’s far from done. The big question now is whether he will be traded.

29  Lamar Jackson

BALTIMORE RAVENS QB

His play trailed off some in 2020 after winning the MVP in 2019. But he is still a dangerous quarterback who can take over a game. He should be better as a passer in his third full season as a starter in 2021.

30  Chris Jones

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS DE

He continued to be a force inside for the Chiefs defense, both in the run game and pushing the pocket. His sack number fell from 9 to 7.5, but he was still impressive in getting pressure inside.

31 Fred Warner

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS MLB

He is one of the best off-the-ball linebackers in the game. He is smart, can run, and knows how to get to the football. He is finally starting to get his due.

32  Cameron Jordan

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS DE

He was a dominant force on the edge of the Saints defense, even if his sack numbers fell from 15.5 to 7.5 last season. He still had a lot of pressures and made life tough for opposing quarterbacks.

33  Devin White

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS LB

In his second season, he emerged as a star in the making. He was dominant against the run and played well in coverage, but he also excelled as a blitzer. The best is yet to come.

34  Tyrann Mathieu

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS FS

This hybrid safety is the perfect player for the modern game. He can blitz. He can cover. He’s good in the run game and he can turn the opposition over.

35  Darren Waller

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS TE

He is a pure pass-catching tight end who creates real problems for teams in matchup situations. He is a receiver playing tight end.

36  DeAndre Hopkins

ARIZONA CARDINALS WR

In his first season with the Cardinals, he caught 115 passes for 1,407 yards and six touchdowns. He was targeted 160 times, second-most in the league.

37 Alvin Kamara

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS RB

He’s one of the special air backs in the league, capable of beating you in the passing game and with his ability to run inside. I just wish he got more carries.

38  Justin Herbert

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS QB

He surprised a lot of people with how he played as a rookie starter, but he was only scratching the surface. This is a franchise passer who will be a star for the next decade.

39  DK Metcalf

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS WR

Big, strong, fast and he’s only just really getting it going. That’s downright scary. He averaged 15.7 per catch last season with 10 touchdowns.

40  Chase Young

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM DE

He had 7.5 sacks as a rookie, but really came on late in the season. Look for his sack numbers to go way up in 2021 and for him to be much higher on this list next year.

41 Bobby Wagner

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS MLB

He is still a top run-and-chase linebacker, especially in the run game. But his pass coverage has slipped a little as he’s gotten older, although he’s still good at it. Even so, he’s still one of the best in the league.

42 DeMarcus Lawrence

DALLAS COWBOYS DE

He hasn’t had double-digit sacks in either of the past two seasons — getting 6.5 last season — but he remains a player who does get a lot of pressure. He’s still playing at a high level, even if the sack numbers might not show it.

43 Leonard Williams

NEW YORK GIANTS DE

He was a force last season for the Giants defense, finally achieving the level of play expected of him when he came into the league with the Jets. Williams earned a new contract because of his impressive play.

44  Lavonte David

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS OLB

He remains one of the best off-the-ball linebackers in the game. His ability to dissect and chase down plays with his speed is a big part of the Tampa Bay defense.

45 Justin Jefferson

MINNESOTA VIKINGS WR

He had an amazing rookie season, averaging 15.9 yards per catch on his 88 catches. He barely looked like a rookie at all, which is scary going forward.

46  Allen Robinson

CHICAGO BEARS WR

Playing in an offense limited by poor quarterback play — a theme of his career — he still caught 100 passes for 1,250 yards and six touchdowns. If Justin Fields is the real deal, Robinson will finally have a legit quarterback throwing him passes.

47  Grady Jarrett

ATLANTA FALCONS DT

On a Falcons defense that has struggled over the years, Jarrett has been one of the few bright spots. His ability to play the run and also pressure inside with his quickness and power show up on tape a lot.

48  Marlon Humphrey

BALTIMORE RAVENS CB

He’s a smooth cover player who excels playing inside in the slot in their nickel. He is a perfect player for their defensive scheme.

49  DeForest Buckner

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS DT

The Colts traded to get him from San Francisco last season and he didn’t disappoint. He showed off his power on their line, and he continued to be able to provide pressure as a down player, getting 9.5 sacks.

50  Dak Prescott

DALLAS COWBOYS QB

His season-ending ankle injury last season sent the Cowboys into a tailspin. He signed a big, new contract this offseason, which will put more pressure on him, but he seems more than up to it.

51 Budda Baker

ARIZONA CARDINALS SS

He has emerged as one of the best safeties in the league. He is outstanding in the run game and has really improved in pass coverage.

52 Za’Darius Smith

GREEN BAY PACKERS OLB

He followed up his 13.5-sack season in 2019 with a 12.5-sack season in 2020. He continues to be a matchup problem for offensive lines with his ability to move inside and outside as a rusher.

53 Darius Leonard

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OLB

He had 132 tackles, three sacks and seven passes defenses. He is a playmaking linebacker in the middle of their defense who has a lot of good football in front of him.

54 Chandler Jones

ARIZONA CARDINALS DE

After getting double-digits in sacks in five straight years, he was limited to five games last season because of a torn biceps muscle. He had just one sack, but you have to think he can get back to his pre-injury form.

55  Michael Thomas

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS WR

His 2020 season was a disappointment in a lot of ways. He was hurt for much of the year, suspended by the team for a game for a practice-field altercation, and had career lows in catches, touchdowns and yardage. He played just 10 regular-season games and was clearly not the same player he was the two prior seasons.

56  Shaquil Barrett

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS LB

He saw his sack numbers fall from 19.5 to eight last season, but he still was a big part of what the Tampa Bay defense did. Then in the postseason, he amped it up as the Bucs won it all, getting four sacks in the playoffs.

57  Ezekiel Elliott

DALLAS COWBOYS RB

Elliott is coming off a disappointing 2020 season that saw him rush for career lows in yards (979) and average (4.0). The line was banged up in front of him, but this is a big prove-it year for Elliott coming up in 2021.

58  Jessie Bates

CINCINNATI BENGALS FS

He is one of the more underrated players in the league. Bates plays in anonymity in Cincinnati, but please take note. He’s a heck of a player.

59  Chris Godwin

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS WR

He played just 12 games last season, so his numbers dropped from the previous year. He still caught 65 passes with seven touchdowns. He did fracture a finger that seemed to slow his fast start last season.

60  Minkah Fitzpatrick

PITTSBURGH STEELERS FS

I left him off the list last year, and heard plenty about it. He earned his right to be on the list this season after a slow start in 2020. He is a rangy safety that fits perfectly in the NFL game.

61  Demario Davis

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS OLB

He wasn’t quite as good as he was the year before, but he remained a good player on their defense. He is a player who can run to the football and do a lot of good things in coverage. He doesn’t get the due he deserves.

62  Mike Evans

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS WR

He had another solid season in 2020, getting a career-high 13 touchdown catches. He caught 70 passes, but his average per catch was down from 17.3 in 2019 to 14.4 last season. He did battle some injuries that could have impacted that number.

63  Nick Chubb

CLEVELAND BROWNS RB

He was limited to 12 games in 2020, so his numbers came down some from the year before. He still rushed for 1,067 yards. The best thing is his yards-per-rush went from 5.0 to 5.6. That tells you he still showed off his big-play ability.

64  Andrew Whitworth

LOS ANGELES RAMS OT

He was limited to nine games last season, which really impacted the Rams offense. When he’s healthy, he’s important as the backside pass protector, which means for Matt Stafford this year.

65 Cameron Heyward

PITTSBURGH STEELERS DE

His sack numbers fell from nine to four last season, but he still had 19 quarterback hits. He is also a good run player, which is key in their scheme.

66 J.J. Watt

ARIZONA CARDINALS DE

He isn’t what he was a few years back, but he can still play at a Pro Bowl level. His ability to be a disrupter up front is still evident when you pop on the tape.

67  Calvin Ridley

ATLANTA FALCONS WR

With Julio Jones hurt for some of the year, Ridley had his best season, catching 90 passes with nine touchdowns. He averaged 15.3 yards per catch and was fourth in the league in yards receiving per game with 90.1. He also tied for the league lead with 23 catches of 20 yards or more.

68  Corey Linsley

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS C

He was an important part of the Green Bay offense the past few seasons playing in front of Aaron Rodgers. Now he will fill the same role for Justin Herbert, which is an important thing for a young quarterback.

69  Brandon Scherff

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM OG

He’s one of the best guards in the league, a player who is good in both the run game and pass protection. It’s why Washington brought him back on the franchise tag for another year.

70  Ronnie Stanley

BALTIMORE RAVENS OT

His season was cut short after six games in 2020 when he suffered a fractured ankle. Before the injury, he signed a big contract extension because he’s such an integral part of their offense as one of the best tackles in the game.

71  Stephon Gilmore

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS CB

His play slipped in 2020, especially in coverage. That was mainly due to injuries, which is concerning since he’s 30. But I think in a year where he has to show he can still be a top corner, he will respond with a better season.

72  A.J. Brown

TENNESSEE TITANS WR

In a run-heavy offense, he has become the big-play threat in their passing game. Brown had 70 catches last season with 11 touchdown catches. He has 20 touchdown receptions in the past two seasons.

73  Myles Jack

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS MLB

He had his best season in 2020 after moving to the weak-side linebacker spot. He was one of the best off-the-ball linebackers in the league last season, but it was lost because he played on a bad team.

74  Garett Bolles

DENVER BRONCOS OT

After a disappointing start to his career, he flourished last season for the Broncos. His impressive play earned him a big contract extension.

75  Danielle Hunter

MINNESOTA VIKINGS DE

He missed all of the 2020 season with a herniated disc in his neck. Hunter was coming off consecutive double-digit sack seasons, and he was sorely missed. He is expected to be back fully this season, although he does want a new contact and that has kept him away from team activities.

76  Keenan Allen

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS WR

He was banged up last year, yet still caught 100 passes with eight touchdowns. The injuries did make his yards-per-catch average drop to 9.9, which is concerning.

77  Harrison Smith

MINNESOTA VIKINGS FS

At 32, he still has some good football left to play. He wasn’t as good last season as he was the year before, but he had to deal with a lot of new faces in the secondary. That matters.

78  Tre’Davious White

BUFFALO BILLS CB

He started slowly last season after signing a big contact, but he rounded into form quickly. He is capable of playing in zone and can also match up with some of the best receivers if asked to do so.

79  Justin Simmons

DENVER BRONCOS FS

He had another impressive season in 2020, which earned him a big contract that makes him the highest-paid safety in the league. He has the range teams love in the middle of the field.

80  Terron Armstead

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS OT

He continues to be an outstanding pass protector on the left side of the Saints line. Entering his ninth season, he’s also improved as a run blocker, which is important with Drew Brees now retired.

81  Odell Beckham

CLEVELAND BROWNS WR

This is more about what I think he can do when he’s healthy. He’s played 16 games in a season once in his seven years in the league. He played just seven games last season when he tore an ACL. But this is based on what he can do when he’s healthy.

82  Tristan Wirfs

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS OT

As a rookie, he stepped in as the starter at right tackle and solidified a line that became one of the best in the league. He was dominant from the start of the season straight through the Super Bowl victory over Kansas City.

83  Matt Ryan

ATLANTA FALCONS QB

He’s thrown at least 20 touchdown passes in 12 consecutive seasons, throwing 26 in 2020. He also threw for 4,581 yards playing in front of a bad offensive line. At 35, he has some good football left in his right arm.

84 Aaron Jones

GREEN BAY PACKERS RB

His ability to be a threat as both a runner and a receiver is a big part of the Green Bay offense. He creates matchup issues for defenses, which is why Green Bay brought him back as a free agent.

85  Frank Ragnow

DETROIT LIONS OG

He was one of the best centers in the game last season, which is why the Lions smartly rewarded him with a new contract. He is the anchor for what should be a good offensive line in 2021.

86  Joel Bitonio

CLEVELAND BROWNS OG

He is smart, athletic lineman who is a key to their run game. He has also improved In pass protection the past few seasons and has started 16 games each of the past four seasons.

87  Saquon Barkley

NEW YORK GIANTS RB

He is coming off a torn ACL suffered in Week 2 last season, which limited him to 34 yards rushing for the year. He did have two impressive seasons to open his career, but can he get back to that same level he flashed as a rookie in 2018?

88  Matthew Stafford

LOS ANGELES RAMS QB

Playing on a bad Lions team last season, he threw 26 touchdown passes and 10 picks. He was traded to the Rams this spring in a blockbuster deal that I think will make his numbers go way up. He’s a better player than he is perceived to be.

89  D.J. Moore

CAROLINA PANTHERS WR

His catch numbers went from 87 in 2019 to 66 last season. That would be cause for concern, but his yards-per-catch average ballooned from 13.5 to 18.1. That shows he was all about the big plays, tying for the league lead with six receptions of 40 yards or more.

90  Derwin James

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS FS

He has battled through a ton of injuries, which is why he’s down this low. But if he can stay on the field, he should be much higher on this list next year. But availability is the best ability.

91  Elgton Jenkins

GREEN BAY PACKERS C

As a rookie, he was an impressive looking player. He played guard, tackle and center. He is a power player who should be one of the league’s best this season.

92  Jamal Adams

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS SS

He had 9.5 sacks for the Seahawks last season, showing off his ability to blitz and play near the line of scrimmage. He struggled at times in coverage, which is not his strong suit.

93  Kirk Cousins

MINNESOTA VIKINGS QB

He had an impressive season in 2020, throwing for a career-high 35 touchdown passes. He did throw 13 picks, which was more than double from the year before.

94  Kyler Murray

ARIZONA CARDINALS QB

He was 29 yards short of 4,000 passing yards and less than 200 away from 1,000 rushing last season. That tells you the type of threat he is as a quarterback. He needs to be more consistent week in and week out and faded some down the stretch last season.

95  Joe Burrow

CINCINNATI BENGALS QB

If he had played his entire rookie season, he would be higher on this list. My prediction is he will be much higher on this list next year.

96  Wyatt Teller

CLEVELAND BROWNS OG

He came from Buffalo in a trade a few years back and has emerged as one of the best guards in the league. His ability to move in their scheme is impressive. He has a nasty streak.

97  Adam Thielen

MINNESOTA VIKINGS WR

All he does is keep putting up impressive numbers. He had 14 touchdown catches last season to go with his 74 catches.

98  Tyler Lockett

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS WR

He had his best season with 100 catches and 10 touchdown receptions. He is a perfect complement to D.K. Metcalf on the other side.

99  Darious Williams

LOS ANGELES RAMS DB

He is the “other” corner on the Rams defense, but he had an impressive season in 2020. He showed off some big-time cover skills. Now he has to show he can do it again.

100  L’Jarius Sneed

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS SAF

Some might be surprised to see him on this list. They shouldn’t be. As a rookie, he was outstanding in coverage for the Chiefs. In his second season, he will be a Pro Bowl player.

JUST MISSED: Von Miller, OLB, Denver Broncos; Kenny Golladay, WR, New York Giants; John Johnson, S, Cleveland Browns; Quinnen Williams, DT, New York Jets; Adrian Amos, S, Green Bay Packers; Tyron Smith, T, Cowboys; Micah Hyde, S, Buffalo Bills;  Rodney Hudson, C, Arizona Cardinals; Eric Kendricks, LB, Minnesota Vikings; Jonathan Jones, CB, New England Patriots; Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders; Patrick Peterson, CB, Minnesota Vikings; Mechi Becton, T, New York Jets; Amari Cooper, WR, Cowboys; Ryan Ramczyk, T, New Orleans Saints; Fletcher Cox, DT, Eagles; Ali Marpet, G, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans; Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team; Jack Conklin, T, Cleveland Browns; Jeffrey Simmons, DT, Tennessee Titans; D.J. Humphries, T, Arizona Cardinals; Taylor Moton, T, Carolina Panthers; Marshon Lattimore, CB, New Orleans Saints; Marcus Williams, S, New Orleans Saints; Orlando Brown, T, Kansas City Chiefs; Anthony Harris, S, Philadelphia Eagles; Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders; James Bradberry, CB, New York Giants; Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns; Jarvis Landry, WR, Cleveland Browns; David DeCastro, G, Pittsburgh Steelers; Darius Slay, CB, Eagles; Brian Burns, DE, Carolina Panthers; Shelby Harris, DT, Denver Broncos; Marcus Maye, S, New York Jets; Brandon Linder, C, Jaguars; Bradley Chubb, EDGE, Denver Broncos; Chris Harris, CB, Los Angeles Chargers; J.C. Tretter, C, Cleveland Browns.