DETROIT

From not even being on the horizon a few years ago, the Lions are now knocking on the door of the House of Lombardi.  Jonathan Jones of CBSSports.com on whether or not they can walk on through.

The Detroit Lions fully embraced the underdog mentality in 2021 after Dan Campbell’s infamous kneecaps press conference. They leaned on it when they didn’t get a win until Thanksgiving, and it was still a thing even as they turned the corner midway through the 2022 season.

Last year, finally, was the breakthrough. A 12-5 season. An NFC North title. Racking up more playoff victories in two weeks than the previous six decades combined.

The 2024 Lions can’t be the underdogs anymore, right?

“I don’t feel that we’re in this underdog…,” Campbell started to tell me last week at minicamp. “I think our guys know where we’re at. I would say this: the motivator is we still have things that we circle, too. We have our own shitlist. So we’re the team with the target on our back, but we’ve circled some people too now. We have targets, too.

“It’s not like we just ran through everybody last year and blew everybody out. We had losses and tough games. We have division opponents. We lost in the NFC Championship Game. So we’ve got our own targets man. And that’s the motivator.”

Things are the same, but different, with these Lions. They’ve dealt with the hype, and now they’re dealing with the expectations.

Campbell was the frontman for this band when he took over in 2021. Perhaps the (literal) strongest head coach in the NFL, Campbell was always the voice of the team internally and externally.

But the plan all along was to have the players lead this team. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Alim McNeill, Penei Sewell all had to grow up in the program. Veterans like Frank Ragnow and Taylor Decker had to re-learn what it was like to win. Even the quarterback, Jared Goff, had to build back his confidence.

And Campbell saw last year that the paradigm had shifted. He wouldn’t need to speak up in a team meeting as much because one of the players already had.

“Until they take the reins, then it’s my job and the coaches’ job. Until they find their own voice and they lead this team, then myself and this coaching staff will lead this team,” Campbell said. “And the best teams are led by their leaders and by their teammates and peers. It’s not from the coaches. And that’s what’s happening, and it’s always been the vision.”

Goff is unquestionably the leader of this team. He inked a four-year, $212 million contract extension this offseason as proof-positive that he’s the guy for years to come in Detroit.

Except, he doesn’t allow himself to believe that. Not anymore.

In 2019, he had playoff success and then earned a top-of-market contract for his play from the Los Angeles Rams. Five years later, he did the same thing with the Lions.

So when I meet with him at minicamp, I assume that he feels different about this deal than the previous one.

“I do feel a lot different,” Goff tells me. “This was obviously much harder and had a much deeper meaning to the city and the fans. And I had to go through a lot personally to get to this point. That’s the main difference. I think the last three or four years have taught me that every single day is valuable.

“I feel like every day I have to prove myself, because at one point it was reality. Well… it is reality, but I feel that in my heart and I don’t think that’ll ever leave me. And I think maybe when I was in year 3 with a new contract I thought, ‘Oh I’m just the starter.’ And you don’t know any better sometimes. I feel like because of everything I’ve gone through, I feel like every single day I have to go out here and prove myself to myself and teammates and coaches that I’m the guy to lead them.”

Respectfully, I say to Goff that the reality to me and everyone else is that you are the guy. The $113.6 million in guaranteed money and a full no-trade clause doesn’t go to a backup. In what world will they trade you and consider this contract a mistake like the Rams did?

“But it doesn’t matter what anyone else thinks,” Goff said. “My thought process has changed to that way and I think that’s the way to be. How long am I going to play football for? I don’t know. Hopefully a long time, but maybe one day I won’t be playing here and I hope to look back and say every single day I went out there and tried to prove myself. Whether it works or doesn’t, at least every single day I was never resting on my laurels. And I don’t believe I was and I don’t mean that to be the case. But I’m more aware of it now.

“I’m much more aware of actively proving myself every single day. And even though people may say, ‘Well you’ve proven it. You’re the starter and you’ve been the starter for eight years.’ I don’t see it that way. And I don’t know that I ever will. And that’s just the way I am.”

In the 34-31 NFC title game loss to the 49ers, the Lions were a third-quarter fumble, or a circus Brandon Aiyuk catch, or a different fourth-down decision away from meeting the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII.

Afterward, Campbell said it will be “twice as hard” for the Lions to get back to the conference title game. He preaches today about how “it will take more” for this group to get over that hump.

“The more has got to be the focus on the details,” Campbell said. “One of the things I always felt we did a great job of and preach around here was handling pressure. When everything’s against you and your back’s against the wall and you don’t have timeouts and defense you’re pinned down in there, that’s when a lot of people crack. And we don’t crack. We find a way to get out of it. And that game, we did. We cracked. And that team did not. They came to life and found their momentum and that’s why they went where they went.

“That’s the little next step we have to get over. We have to be able to handle it at that level, even if it’s on the road against the top tier opponent. That’s the next level.”

The expectations within the building are the same, Goff told me. This time last year, the Lions expected to be in the Super Bowl just like they do today. Maybe the results were surprising to the rest of us, but not to them.

But there’s an even greater attention to detail, as Campbell noted. On the second day of minicamp, Campbell had his first and second teams go through seven separate end-of-game situations.

Down 34-28 with 15 seconds to go at the 16-yard-line, the Lions offense eventually got into the end zone on a Goff pass to St. Brown as time expired in the simulated drill. And that right there is the “more” that Campbell keeps talking about.

“That’s a perfect example,” Goff said. “Those standards and how we go about our business daily and ultimately on Sunday absolutely will rise for ourselves. But our expectations for what we can be are the same as they’ve always been.”

The Detroit Lions are both different and the same.

MINNESOTA

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com has a long piece on the deal for WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON.  Here are some parts that directly relate to the Vikings:

Why is Jefferson’s deal so large?

It depends on your perspective. The NFL is essentially two different leagues when it comes to money: one for quarterbacks, and one for every other position. This deal is less than what Derek Carr and Daniel Jones got when they signed their deals with the Saints and Giants, respectively, last offseason.

The story of why this contract stands out beyond the sheer numbers is nerdy, although it holds meaning when it comes to NFL team-building. The most recent leap in the wide receiver market starts with a deal I covered a couple of years ago, when DeAndre Hopkins signed a two-year, $54.5 million extension in September of 2020. The contract, at least in theory, pushed the wide receiver market north of $27 million per season. Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill followed with their own contracts after being traded in March of 2022, with Hill becoming the first player to average $30 million per season at wide receiver.

Those deals had more bluster and empty calories than typical NFL deals. Hopkins’ came with three years left to go on his prior deal; he would be released by the Cardinals before the years of that two-year extension even came due. Hill’s four-year, $120 million deal jumps from a $21.8 million base salary in 2025 to a whopping $43.9 million in 2026, all of which is unguaranteed. That number exists solely to make him the first $30 million-per-year receiver on paper — there’s no way he’ll play for that amount in reality.

Jefferson’s deal, on the other hand, doesn’t have the same sort of fake money inflation that the others do. The structure makes it likely he will earn north of $30 million per year in actual take-home pay. In the absolute worst-case scenario, he will earn more than $93 million for two years. That’s not going to be where the deal ends. Jefferson would earn just over $98 million if the Vikings moved on after three years, but more realistically, this will be a four-year, $123.8 million pact before there will be real talk about what happens next.

That’s not just a deal that resets the wide receiver market. It’s a contract that sets a new high for all non-quarterbacks around the NFL. As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap noted in his breakdown of the deal, Jefferson’s cash flow will see him paid far beyond the rates of other wideouts, and it either competes with or tops what edge rusher Nick Bosa received during the first five years of his new deal with the 49ers. Bosa was the prior record holder for the largest non-quarterback deal, having signed a five-year, $170 million deal ($34 million per season) last September.

On one hand, that might seem weird. When Bosa signed his deal, he was coming off a mammoth season in which he led the league with 18.5 sacks and won Defensive Player of the Year. Jefferson, however, missed seven games with a hamstring injury last season and left an eighth after suffering a blow to the chest. He still racked up 1,074 yards in just over half a season’s worth of work, but the Vikings were 2-8 when he suited up and 5-2 otherwise. Nobody doubts his talent, but he’s not coming off his best season.

So why did he get paid more than Bosa? One important factor is the rise in the NFL’s salary cap. While the cap isn’t as rigid as other sports when it comes to salaries, the league jumped from a $224.8 million cap in 2022 to a $255.4 million cap in 2023, a rise of nearly 14%. A growing cap produces larger contracts.

There’s another factor I bring up a lot that is easy to see in reality here: While most of the debates surrounding NFL contracts are about talent and production, that’s not what decides how much players get paid. NFL deals are about leverage. You need talent to have leverage, and production helps illuminate talent, but teams sign contracts out of the fear of losing a player, not as a reward for what he has done before.

Even though Jefferson’s 2023 season was altered by injury, the most important thing he did in terms of yielding a larger contract is get one season closer to free agency. He was eligible for an extension last offseason after completing his third pro campaign, but likely owing to a difficult cap situation and Kirk Cousins’ deal, Minnesota wasn’t able to come to terms with him on an extension last summer.

Last year, the Vikings had four more years of runway before needing to worry about losing Jefferson for free. He was due a total of approximately $76.6 million over that four-year span, with salaries of $2.4 million and $19.7 million in 2023 and 2024, respectively, before two potential franchise tags of $24.7 million in 2025 and $29.7 million in 2026. That’s about $19.2 million per year without any future guarantees on a year-to-year basis. That’s good money, of course, but not the sort of life-changing security that comes with an elite receiver extension.

After playing out 2023, the situation was different. The Vikings had only three years of cost control over Jefferson before potentially losing him for free, with the $19.7 million fifth-year option in 2024 and tags of $24.7 million in 2025 and $29.7 million in 2026. That’s an average of $24.7 million per year, and it’s one year closer to free agency. His leverage grew dramatically from one season to the next, and it helped him earn a record-setting deal, even after an injury-impacted campaign.

The ultimate example of this might be the negotiations between Dak Prescott and the Cowboys on their previous deal in 2021. After the sides went back and forth for a couple of offseasons, he suffered a season-ending ankle injury early in the 2020 campaign. Because he was about to hit his second franchise tag in 2021, though, Dallas had no leverage and gave him a deal worth $40 million per season with no-trade and no-tag clauses, even after a season in which he was sidelined for most of the campaign. Prescott is now about to parlay that leverage into an even larger contract, but more on the Cowboys a little later.

Will the Vikings regret the Jefferson deal?

While we can’t say for sure, teams typically don’t regret paying elite players entering the prime of their careers, even if it’s with a record-setting contract. The Cardinals and Lions don’t regret their extensions with Fitzgerald and Johnson, respectively. The contracts along the defensive line for elite pass-rushers haven’t turned out poorly, although Bosa is only one year into his and Donald retired after two seasons on his most recent pact with the Rams. Contracts at this level are usually for the sort of players who never hit free agency.

Outside of his hamstring injury from a year ago, there’s little reason to believe that Jefferson is a bad bet. The Vikings signed him a few weeks before he turns 25, which is firmly entering the prime years for the vast majority of wideouts. His deal likely ties Minnesota to him until the spring of 2028, when there will be one year left on his extension. He will be turning 29 and either about to sign a new extension or on his way out of town at that point. There’s nothing in his production profile or history suggesting he’s likely to create issues for the Vikings. No deal is foolproof — as I mentioned in talking about what happened with the Beckham and Thomas extensions — but Minnesota shouldn’t have many reasons to regret this deal barring a serious injury.

In the big picture, I would argue there’s actually something like a first-mover advantage for teams that propel the market forward for a player who’s truly elite at his position. By resetting the market for top wide receivers at $35 million per year, the Vikings are now forcing every other team with a wide receiver it values to work off their deal.

Take Lamb. While his production has been spectacular in a pass-happy offense alongside Prescott over the past couple of seasons, Jefferson is a more explosive and consistently impactful receiver. Now that Jefferson has reset the market, though, the Cowboys will probably need to pay Lamb even more than his Vikings counterpart to get his deal done.

The same will be true for Chase and, down the line, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Nacua. Having Jefferson signed for $35 million per year becomes a better deal when Lamb gets $36 million, Chase gets $37 million and Wilson picks up $40 million per season.

The whole thing is here.

TAMPA BAY

With an assist from QB BAKER MAYFIELD, WR STERLING SHEPARD has re-united with his former Oklahoma QB.  ProFootballTalk.com:

Baker Mayfield and Sterling Shepard have been reunited in Tampa Bay, playing together for the first time since Shepard was Mayfield’s favorite receiver on the 2015 Oklahoma Sooners. Shepard credits their relationship with getting the ball rolling on him signing with the Buccaneers.

Shepard told the New York Post that Mayfield texted him last week to ask him about his offseason workouts, in what Shepard initially thought was just a friendly exchange but proved to be the first step toward the Bucs bringing Shepard into the fold.

“I got a text from my boy and I just thought it was ‘regular old checking in to see how I was doing’ type of text, because we do that from time to time to each other,’’ Shepard said.

Soon after Shepard confirmed to Mayfield that he’s in good shape and still wants to play, Shepard’s agent and the Bucs’ front office were hammering out a deal. Shepard said his preference would have been to finish his career with the Giants, where he has played all eight of his NFL seasons, but signing with the Buccaneers is the next-best thing.

“I’m looking forward to it,’’ Shepard said. “It’s a new scene. I can’t say I wanted to experience that, I always wanted to be a Giant but I’m not mad at it, man. It’s a really good situation, they have a really good football team, really talented football team and I get to be reunited with my boy and get to play with him a little bit.”

At 31 years old and coming off a season in which he only caught 10 passes, Shepard is no lock to make the Bucs’ roster. But his rapport with his starting quarterback should help his chances.

PITTSBURGH

Coach Mike Tomlin is extended.  Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com:

Mike Tomlin, the NFL’s longest-tenured coach, has received an extension from the Pittsburgh Steelers that puts him under contract through the 2027 season.

Tomlin, entering his 18th season at the helm of the Steelers, signed a three-year extension, the team announced Monday. Before the new agreement, Tomlin was entering the final year of a three-year extension signed in 2021.

“Mike Tomlin’s leadership and commitment to the Steelers have been pivotal to our success during his first 17 years as head coach,” Steelers president Art Rooney II said in a statement. “Extending his contract for three more years reflects our confidence in his ability to guide the team back to winning playoff games and championships, while continuing our tradition of success.”

The extension comes after a tumultuous season that saw a slew of rumors about Tomlin’s future in Pittsburgh amid a puzzling late-season, three-game losing streak followed by a rebound winning streak and a playoff berth with 2022 first-round quarterback Kenny Pickett benched for longtime backup Mason Rudolph. Those rumors, including the possibility that Tomlin could take a year off from coaching, intensified when he declined to answer a question about his future, walking off the podium to unceremoniously end his news conference after a wild-card loss to the Buffalo Bills in the midst of the question.

“I certainly could have handled that situation better than I did,” Tomlin said at another news conference a couple of days later. “But I’ll also say this: I just believe there’s a time and place for everything and postgame press conferences are probably not the place to address contract issues and things of that nature. It’s just a very individual thing and on game day, I doubt any of us are in that mindset.”

In that season wrap-up news conference, Tomlin expressed a desire to remain in Pittsburgh and said he expected to get a contract extension. Tomlin then addressed the rumors that he was burned out and said he never told anyone he planned to take a year away from coaching.

He also doubled down on his desire to continue coaching.

“It was probably intensified, to be quite honest with you, man,” Tomlin said of his “level of go” entering Year 18. “I just see things with greater clarity through experience, and so it’s probably intensified.”

Tomlin, hired in 2007 as only the third Steelers head coach since 1969, has famously never had a losing season, and his 173 regular-season victories are second in franchise history to Chuck Noll’s 193. If Tomlin continues his streak of non-losing seasons through the three-year extension, he’ll surpass Noll as the organization’s winningest head coach.

The Steelers have an active streak of 20 straight non-losing seasons and can tie the Dallas Cowboys (1965-85) for the NFL record of most consecutive seasons with another such season in 2024.

Although he’s had unprecedented regular-season success, Tomlin hasn’t had a playoff win since 2016. The Steelers are 0-4 in postseason appearances since then, including wild-card losses in 2020, 2021 and 2023.

But in explaining why he was still right man for the job in January, Tomlin was passionate in expressing his desire to change the team’s recent playoff fortunes.

“I’m not lacking confidence in my ability to do the job, while at the same time there’s frustration because I want that confetti for this group,” Tomlin said. “And so, whatever we got to do to do it, whatever changes need to be made, I’m open to it.

Since then, Tomlin hired former Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator, filling the job that was vacated when Matt Canada was fired midseason. The Steelers also signed quarterback Russell Wilson in free agency, traded Pickett to the Philadelphia Eagles and sent a conditional sixth-round pick to the Chicago Bears for former first-round quarterback Justin Fields. The team also bolstered the defense by signing inside linebacker Patrick Queen in free agency and continued the overhaul of the offensive line by using their first two picks in the 2024 NFL draft to add to that group.

“I am appreciative for this contract extension and thankful for Art Rooney II for his support during my first 17 years in Pittsburgh,” Tomlin said in Monday’s statement. “We are continuing to work diligently to get back to where we belong — sustained playoff success with the ultimate goal of winning the franchise’s seventh Lombardi Trophy.

“I am very excited to get the 2024 season underway and provide our fans with a memorable year.”

HOUSTON

A name to now remember is WR JOHN METCHIE, a hidden second rounder from a couple of years ago.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Two years after he was drafted, Texans wide receiver John Metchie still hasn’t been able to do much on the field. But his head coach loves the work he has done this offseason.

Texans coach DeMeco Ryans says that Metchie has performed very well this offseason.

“You talk about a guy that’s improved a lot throughout these OTAs and minicamp, Metchie has shown up,” Ryans said, via the Houston Chronicle. “He’s looking more explosive this second time around.”

Metchie missed his entire rookie season because he was diagnosed with cancer two months after the Texans selected him in the second round of the 2022 NFL draft. He returned to the field in 2023 and played in 16 games, catching 16 passes for 158 yards.

Ryans also talked up two of the Texans’ other backup wide receivers, Xavier Hutchinson and Jared Wayne. The three starting receivers in Houston will be Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell and Nico Collins, but Houston looks like it will have a deep wide receiver room, and perhaps some tough decisions to make when it’s time to cut the roster down to 53 players.

JACKSONVILLE

EDGE JOSH ALLEN on how it all came together last year in time to get his new contract.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Jaguars edge rusher Josh Allen played out the final year of his rookie contract in 2023 and posted a career-high 17.5 sacks on his way to landing the long-term contract in Jacksonville he was looking for at the start of the offseason.

On Monday, Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said that “the challenge” for a player coming off a big season is whether he can do it again and there are plenty of examples of players who couldn’t sustain a high level of play after breaking out in a contract year. There are also plenty of examples of players who maintained their success into the future.

Allen, who reported to mandatory minicamp after working out on his own the rest of the offseason, vowed that he will be in the latter category.

“For me, this year, it’s very personal,” Allen said, via the team’s website. “Last year, I figured out what works for me. So for me, it’s, ‘OK. I’m glad it was at the time where I needed to figure it out, to benefit off of it.’ Now for me, it’s like, ‘You did it because of that.’ No and I’ll show you why. I found out what works for me. I’m going to double up, get better from there and improve mentally, physically and emotionally – and now I can go from there. For right now, I’m more mentally strong at this point of the season. It’s just going to keep building from here.”

Allen said his goals for the coming season include winning defensive player of the year and the Super Bowl. Either outcome would make the new contract look like a wise move and pulling off the former would only help the Jags’ chances at the latter.

NEW ENGLAND

RB RHAMONDRE STEVENSON signals a coming extension.  Mike Reiss of ESPN.com:

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who is entering the final year of his rookie contract, said he has been engaged in negotiations with the team on an extension that could be nearing their end.

“Right now, I’m trying to get the deal done and get it locked in. We’ll see where that goes. It’s pretty close,” Stevenson said Monday on the first day of the team’s mandatory minicamp.

Stevenson was selected by the Patriots in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL draft and has opened the past two seasons as the team’s top running back. He has played in 41 games and totaled 2,265 rushing yards on 499 carries with 14 touchdowns. He has also caught 121 passes for 782 yards and one touchdown.

Under a new regime led by executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf and first-year head coach Jerod Mayo, the Patriots have made it a priority to be a “draft and develop” team, and extending Stevenson’s contract would further reflect that.

Stevenson, who is scheduled to earn a base salary of $3.116 million this season, said the sides have been engaged in talks for an extended period.

“It’s not frustrating, but it’s just a long process. This is my first time going through it, but just hearing from all the other guys, this is how it goes. It’s a negotiation process, and I’m respecting the process,” he said, adding that some free agent deals at the position might have strengthened his case.

“It’s hard not to think about it. This is our career, our life and our future. But just staying disciplined and coming out here and working every day; as long as you do that, everything else should come with it.”

The 6-foot, 227-pound Stevenson had his 2023 season cut short by a high ankle sprain in Week 13. The Patriots were eliminated from playoff contention at the time, perhaps lessening the urgency for Stevenson to return, as the team ultimately finished 4-13.

In spring practices, Stevenson has led a running back room that includes free agent signee Antonio Gibson, who inked a three-year, $11.25 million deal with the team after spending the first four years of his career with the Washington Commanders.

“I think he’s one of the better backs in the league, no doubt about it,” Mayo said of Stevenson. “I’m excited to see what he does this season, and look, he’s earned everything that he gets. He is our starting running back and hopefully we do get something done.”

THIS AND THAT

SUNDAY TICKET TRIAL

Mike Florio:

It’s hard to find much media coverage of the landmark NFL Sunday Ticket trial. Obviously, NFL.comwill never mention it. As a potential deal between Disney and the league to take control of NFL Media continues to loom, ESPN.com has been quiet about it, too.

We’ve been regularly searching for anything about the case. This morning, we stumbled over an item in The Hollywood Reporter that contains some of the content from the league’s opening statement.

It was delivered by Beth Wilkinson, who initially handled the investigation regarding the Commanders and former owner Daniel Snyder — and who was prepared to recommend in writing that Snyder should be forced to sell the team. (The league never asked for her written recommendations.)

The plaintiffs in the Sunday Ticket case claim in part that the NFL insisted on an elevated price for Sunday Ticket in order to protect the broadcast packages purchased by CBS and Fox. Basically, the greater the cost of Sunday Ticket, the less likely fans would be to watch it instead of the games made available on their local CBS and/or Fox affiliates.

While the context, based on the article, isn’t entirely clear, Wilkinson apparently tried to justify the price for Sunday Ticket by pointing to the costs incurred by CBS and Fox to broadcast games.

“The biggest cost is for famous announcers like Tony Romo,” Wilkinson said. “Well guess what? Those people charge a lot of money. Who pays for it? Fox and CBS.”

But no one forces CBS and Fox to pay that much to game analysts. It’s still unclear what CBS blew the curve for Romo, and it’s less clear why Fox offered Tom Brady $375 million on a 10-year deal. However, it’s difficult if not impossible to see any connection whatsoever between those decisions by CBS and Fox and the NFL’s alleged effort to keep Sunday Ticket so expensive that plenty of fans will watch CBS and Fox instead.

Wilkinson also offered a clunky justification for the NFL’s programming decisions: “We’re in L.A. Everyone knows TV programs are exclusive. Back in the day, we only saw Seinfeld on NBC. They don’t have to give their content to other networks. You’re allowed to sell your product how you want.”

The point she was trying to make isn’t obvious. (And that’s putting it kindly.) Also, NBC was (and is) one business. The NFL was (and is) 32 different businesses. The NFL can’t come together and fix prices.

This isn’t about NBC exclusively televising Seinfeld or any other show. It’s about the NFL exclusively making out-of-market games available only to fans who were willing to buy the entire, full-season package for a price that was (allegedly) marked up to ensure that plenty of fans would opt to just watch whatever was on CBS or Fox locally.

It’s a mass effort by the league, operating as one business, to find a sweet spot that maximizes revenue from broadcast networks and the Sunday Ticket provider. Even if that means dictating to the Sunday Ticket provider the price it must charge for the product it has purchased from the NFL.

And even if that means forcing consumers to spend a lot more money for out-of-market games — as well as preventing them from choosing something less than the full-season, whole-league package.