THE DAILY BRIEFING
| NFC NORTH |
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GREEN BAY
TE MARCEDES LEWIS is aiming to set an NFL record for tight end endurance. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
Packers tight end Marcedes Lewis is heading into his 17th NFL season, and that has him setting his sights on his own place in NFL history.
Only two tight ends have played 17 seasons, Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten. No tight end has ever played 18 seasons, and that’s something Lewis wants to do.
“This year, I’ll tie the record,” Lewis said. “It would be great to break it and then I would consider, ‘OK, I’ve done that.’ Eighteen is kind of bizarre, especially at the tight end position.”
Lewis played his first 12 NFL seasons with Jacksonville and is now heading into his fifth season in Green Bay. Once he plays this season he’ll break out of a tie with Antonio Gates, Pete Metzelaars and Jackie Smith, all of whom played tight end for 16 seasons.
In addition to playing at least two more seasons, the 38-year-old Lewis says his other goal is winning a Super Bowl. |
| NFC EAST |
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NEW YORK GIANTS
LB JUSTIN HILLIARD has a performance enhancing suspension. To his credit, he has a quick explanation. Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com:
New York Giants linebacker Justin Hilliard was suspended two games for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing substances.
Hilliard, an undrafted free agent who spent most of last year on injured reserve, spent time this spring working with the first-team defense while starting middle linebacker Blake Martinez continues his rehab from a torn ACL. It boded well for the prospects of the second-year player from Ohio State under the Giants’ new regime.
In a tweet on Friday, Hilliard said he takes “full responsibility” for having the banned substance in his body.
“I have been informed by the NFL that I tested positive for a banned diuretic – Spironolactone (Canrenone),” Hilliard wrote. “After investigation, it became clear that I mistakenly took my partner’s prescription medication instead of my own anti-inflammatory prescription. I am well aware of the NFL’s zero-tolerance policy, and I take full responsibility for having a banned substance in my body.” |
| NFC SOUTH |
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ATLANTA
You know the season is getting close when the team previews by Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com start to appear. They count up his rankings from the bottom. We missed #32 (Houston) and we won’t have them all, but here are the Falcons at #31:
Atlanta Falcons
NFL
3rd NFC South
7-10-0
The Atlanta Falcons pursued Deshaun Watson, came up short (they might be relieved about that now) and it cost them another quarterback, too.
Before Matt Ryan heard that the Falcons were looking into trading for Watson, it seemed he planned to be back in Atlanta. Understandably, Ryan wanted out after the Watson news broke.
“Had none of this gone down? There’s probably a chance — a pretty good chance,” Ryan said on “The Ryen Russillo Podcast” in regards to remaining in Atlanta. “But it did, you know? So when it does, when the situations change and the circumstances change.”
The situation might have been handled poorly, but trading Ryan wasn’t necessarily a bad thing. Maybe Atlanta needed to be forced into that overdue decision.
Doing your best to remain mediocre, or close to it, is what a lot of NFL teams do. An 8-9 or 7-10 season might not get NFL coaches or GMs fired, but 3-14 probably will. When the Falcons decided to trade Julio Jones last offseason, they should have jumped into a full rebuild right then. There was no great reason to keep the 36-year-old Ryan to be a sub-.500 team, which is exactly what the Falcons were with Ryan. They held on at least a year too long.
Without Ryan, the Falcons will be bad. There’s no way around it. But it’s better than chasing third place in the NFC South for the next few years.
There’s not much to feel hopeful about. Marcus Mariota is likely just a bridge quarterback to whoever the Falcons draft in the first round next year, unless 2021 rookie Desmond Ridder does enough to show he can be the quarterback of the future. The Falcons’ No. 1 wide receiver is a rookie. Atlanta’s top running back is a 31-year-old converted receiver. Their best player might be Calvin Ridley, and he’ll be serving a one-year suspension for betting on the NFL. It also seems unlikely he’ll play for Atlanta again. Their best player who will actually play in 2022 is a tight end, Kyle Pitts. You won’t find many good teams that are built around a tight end, no matter how talented he is. The Falcons might have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. On defense Atlanta had 18 sacks, which was 11 fewer than any other team. No player who had more than two sacks for Atlanta last season remains on the roster. And now linebacker Deion Jones will miss the rest of the offseason.
If there was any team that needed to find the factory reset option, it was the Falcons. They took on Ryan’s dead cap hit, which at $40.5 million is almost $7 million more than any other dead cap hit in NFL history. They have an unbelievable $63 million in dead cap hits, the most in the NFL. The hope is they’ll eat a rough season and get the cap in order, and that will facilitate a rapid rebuild starting in 2023.
“We’re taking it on the chin this year,” Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot said, according to NFL.com. “But taking it on the chin this year and how you look at where we are next year, it’s significant.
“With this, you take it on the chin this year and it’s our job to find value in free agency and to draft well and to put a good football team on the field this year, even with that dead cap. It’s an obstacle, but we look at it as an opportunity, and that’s our job. We’re not making excuses about it. Us taking it on the chin right now, it makes a significant difference for us next year and the future.”
Coach Arthur Smith and Fontenot will be hoping owner Arthur Blank has patience. Blank has been patient before, though he turns 80 years old in September and who knows how blowing Super Bowl LI has affected his mindset. The only thing that seems certain is the Falcons are in for a dry spell. Maybe the downturn won’t last long after “taking it on the chin” this season.
The last time the Falcons entered a season without Ryan as their regular starting quarterback was 2007, when Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich and Chris Redman split the job. Even if the Falcons never won a championship during the Ryan era, there were some great moments. He had a memorable career in Atlanta. It was time to move on, even if the Falcons resisted that change for too long. And now it’s going to hurt.
OFFSEASON GRADE
Over the last two years Atlanta traded Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, arguably the two greatest Falcons ever, and got just a second- and third-round pick in return for both. That’s what happens when you hold on too long. It’s hard to be excited about an offseason in which the Falcons voluntarily signed up for $63 million in dead cap space. Marcus Mariota is a fine, cheap gamble (two years, $18.75 million). Cornerback Casey Hayward has had a good career and Cordarrelle Patterson had a breakout 2021, but signing two players past age 30 to two-year deals worth $11 million and $10.5 million might not yield a great return on investment. Trading for failed Raiders receiver Bryan Edwards probably won’t work out, but it was a frugal risk. The draft was good, with receiver Drake London headlining it. The big USC wideout was the eighth overall pick. Second-round picks Arnold Ebikete, an edge rusher, and linebacker Troy Andersen could pay off soon. Quarterback Desmond Ridder probably won’t hit big out of the third round but he wasn’t bad value. Hopefully for the Falcons, this draft class starts to form a foundation for the future.
GRADE: C
QUARTERBACK REPORT
Marcus Mariota had a good run with the Tennessee Titans, though that has been forgotten. Over an eight-game stretch his second season, he had 21 touchdowns and three interceptions with a 117.7 passer rating. He had a pedigree as a Heisman Trophy winner and second overall pick of the draft. Then it fell apart. He seemed to lose all of his confidence. The last time we saw him as a starter was October of 2019, when he was benched for Ryan Tannehill. The Titans offense took off after the move to bench Mariota, and Mariota has attempted 31 passes since. This is likely his last chance to establish himself as a starter, though he probably could be a long-term backup. It’s not out of the realm of possibility he has a nice season, though it’s not a great environment around him. If he falters, the Falcons might take a long look at third-round pick Desmond Ridder, a very good college quarterback at Cincinnati who slipped to the 74th overall pick.
ODD BREAKDOWN
The Texans and Falcons are tied for the lowest season win total at BetMGM. Atlanta’s win total is a paltry 4.5. It’s hard to bet any team to go under a win total that low, but it’s not like anyone can envision the Falcons blowing past that total and competing for a playoff spot. One good thing for the Falcons, in regards to the odds, is first-round receiver Drake London being the second favorite for offensive rookie of the year at +650.
YAHOO’S FANTASY TAKE
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “It was fun to see Cordarrelle Patterson have a spike season in his ninth NFL campaign. He finally received a heavy offensive workload, collecting 205 touches — that’s 120 more than his previous career high. He became a valuable hybrid player for the Falcons, and by season’s end, he was getting plenty of reps as a traditional running back. And entering the 2022 season, most fantasy providers (including Yahoo) have Patterson recognized at running back, forever the critical fantasy position.
“We always knew the guy had talent. Patterson was a former first-round pick, and made four Pro Bowl trips in his first eight seasons, always as a special-teams ace.
“It’s no fun to throw cold water on the story, but we need to stay pragmatic. Asking Patterson to be a de-facto running back again feels unrealistic, an unsustainable business model. He’s also into his age-31 season, and even considering his modest workload through the years, that’s a risky age pocket for most running backs or receivers. Although Patterson isn’t unreasonably priced in the early market — his Yahoo and NFFC ADPs are both an eyelash under 100 — he’ll be one of my fades for the fresh season. Late-career breakouts are generally horrible bets in the follow-up season, and the Falcons offense as a whole does not inspire confidence.”
STAT TO REMEMBER
The Falcons were 7-10 last season, but they were lucky to get to seven wins according to a few stats. The Falcons were 6-2 in games decided by seven points or less, and 3-0 in games decided by a field goal or less. That’s some good fortune. They also had the third-best injury luck in Football Outsiders’ adjusted games lost metric. According to FO’s estimated wins and pythagorean wins (which calculates how many wins a team should have had based on point differential), the Falcons profiled as a 4.7-win team. In addition to everything else working against Atlanta for this season, it’s also likely that some regression is coming.
BURNING QUESTION
Can Kyle Pitts and Drake London lead the Falcons forward?
The strength of the Falcons is either cornerback, where 2020 first-round pick A.J. Terrell is becoming a star, or the size of their pass catchers. The Falcons invested the fourth overall pick last year in big, versatile tight end Kyle Pitts, who delivered with a 1,026-yard season, and then drafted Drake London eighth overall this season. Many had Garrett Wilson as the top receiver in this year’s class, but the Falcons preferred London’s 6-4, 219-pound frame. Both of those guys will be a matchup problem. Pitts had just one touchdown last season, but that seems like a fluke. He and London will both help their quarterbacks with contested-catch brilliance, this season and in the future.
BEST CASE SCENARIO
No matter how bad the Falcons look on paper, they were in the playoff race last season until a Week 17 loss at the Buffalo Bills. If Drake London is an immediate star, perhaps he and Kyle Pitts can help Marcus Mariota resurrect his career. If the Falcons can be somewhat competitive again, that would look good on second-year coach Arthur Smith. Though, maybe a season in which the Falcons are just good enough to narrowly miss the playoffs and then buy in further to Mariota as he nears 30 years old wouldn’t be the best outcome.
NIGHTMARE SCENARIO
Perhaps Matt Ryan is cooked. It’s also possible that he had a bad season because his offensive line was one of the worst pass-blocking units in the league, he had almost no traditional run game to help out, and his targets were among the worst in the NFL. The Falcons didn’t do a ton to fix any of that — with the exception of picking receiver Drake London in the first round — and does it seem like Marcus Mariota can thrive in that environment? Finishing with the first overall pick of the 2023 NFL draft is well within the Falcons’ range of outcomes. That actually wouldn’t be all too bad for the franchise. If you know you’re going to be bad, at least get a great draft pick out of it.
CRYSTAL BALL SAYS
The Falcons swallowed hard and punted 2022. There was a decision to be made: push some of those cap hits to future years to be somewhat competitive this season, or take a bad season and have more flexibility in the future. The Falcons chose the latter, which made sense. But it does mean this season should be painful. The Falcons will be in contention for the first pick of the draft next year. At some point in the future, a miserable 2022 season might seem worth it to Falcons fans. |
| NFC WEST |
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ARIZONA
Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com finds belief in QB KYLER MURRAY widespread in the Cardinals locker room:
Coming off a second consecutive late-season collapse followed by a blowout loss in the NFC wild-card round last season, the Arizona Cardinals reported to voluntary organized team activities in late May knowing they had work to do.
Arizona knew it couldn’t fix all its issues instantly. But it set out to rectify its football transgressions largely without quarterback Kyler Murray, who reported for one of three voluntary OTAs and the mandatory minicamp.
Murray’s teammates didn’t mind. They understood the fourth-year quarterback, who’s embroiled in contract negotiations, didn’t have to show up during OTAs. And, by and large, they supported him because, they said, they understand there’s a business side to football.
“That’s my quarterback,” left tackle D.J. Humphries said. “I saw a quote the other day that was like, ‘Have you seen the organization before he got here?’ And, I mean, I was here with Carson [Palmer], so obviously, I’ve seen greatness, but I mean that statement is not a lie.
“If you think that Kyler is not our future, you are a plum fool. There’s no question of that.”
Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury diverted questions about why Murray chose to attend certain practices and not others back to the quarterback, and Murray did not address the media this offseason. But Kingsbury did say the key to Arizona fixing last year’s issues was rooted in the scheme. Arizona was able to make tweaks, adjustments and additions to its scheme with backup quarterback Colt McCoy when Murray wasn’t at practice.
“He and Kyler obviously have a great relationship and they can talk through things and work through things and get things that maybe were cloudy last year or they didn’t like as a unit sorted out during this time,” Kingsbury said.
The setup has worked, according to Kingsbury. He has been able to get input from Murray throughout the offseason.
“I don’t think we’ve missed too much,” Kingsbury said.
Not having Murray around for two of the four weeks of practice didn’t put a dent in building camaraderie either, Kingsbury said. Having two consecutive offseasons altered by COVID prepared Arizona for building cohesiveness without everyone in person.
“Not having an offseason the last two years, I think guys that are used to that,” Kingsbury said. “I mean, there’s a few guys that train on their own and do those certain things and people understand that, so I don’t see it as being as big of an issue.
“Once you get to training camp, there’s plenty of time to bond and come together.”
Every player has his own approach to the voluntary workouts, defensive lineman J.J. Watt said.
“Being here with the guys at OTAs, I think that being on the field is extremely valuable, because I don’t think you can get better at football without playing football,” Watt said. “And, so, taking advantage of every single opportunity, taking advantage of every rep, all the individual drills and everything, and the camaraderie and getting the guys together, I think for me, personally, is very big.”
Humphries was taught earlier in his career by former NFL offensive lineman Andre Smith to not let the league surprise him.
“Certain stuff gotta go a certain way for both parties to be happy and they’ll figure it,” he said. “I stay out of stuff like that. I don’t want nobody in my business when I’m talking about stuff. I support my guy all the way though.”
When Murray was on the field, running back James Conner said he looked like the same old Murray.
“He was here for a little bit throwing an excellent ball,” Conner said, “so we know come game time, he’ll be ready.” |
| AFC NORTH |
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CLEVELAND
This tweet from Mike Florio:
@ProFootballTalk
To anyone who is saying as to the Deshaun Watson cases that there is no evidence he did anything, only the complaints from the women who say he did something, you don’t really know what the word “evidence” means.
As it becomes more apparent that QB DESHAUN WATSON will be very lucky to get off with a six-game Roethlisberger style suspension, Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.comlooks at NFL Justice’s history:
All eyes are on the NFL as it reportedly prepares to finalize its investigation of Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson, the most polarizing player of the 2022 offseason. Watson has proclaimed his innocence in the face of 24 — and reportedly soon to be 26 — civil lawsuits alleging sexual assault and misconduct during his Texans career. And his new team, which committed a record $230 million to the QB as part of its blockbuster acquisition of him this year, has publicly defended him. But all signs point to the league suspending Watson for at least part of 2022, if not the entire season, while enforcing its personal conduct policy.
Players do not have to be criminally charged in order to violate the policy, and Watson falls in that camp: two different Texas grand juries have declined to indict the QB this offseason, even while more women have accused the former first-round draft pick of being a “serial predator” and the New York Times has reported Watson used at least 66 private massage therapists over a 17-month span during his time in Houston — dozens of which now allege he violated them.
But is there a precedent for a potential Watson suspension? Not a perfect one, by any means; rarely has a player of his stature, at his position, faced such a high volume of accusations and yet also been free of criminal charges. The NFL’s history of player discipline also lacks a distinct pattern, especially since new standards were only implemented in 2014 in response to the infamous Ray Rice case, when the league unsuccessfully attempted to enact a second, indefinite suspension on the ex-Ravens running back once video surfaced of the player’s assault, which had previously been punished with a mere two-game ban.
Still, if you’re looking for a potential baseline suspension for Watson, it might not hurt to review the bans issued to starters or other players with notable roles over the last 15 years, since the league’s biggest updates to the personal conduct policy in 2007:
Note: Suspensions for violations of the NFL’s personal conduct policy differ from suspensions for in-game rules violations, such as unnecessary roughness or fighting; as well as team-imposed suspensions and bans related to the integrity of the game (i.e. Calvin Ridley’s 2022 ban for gambling, or Tom Brady’s 2018 suspension for his alleged role in Deflategate).
PLAYER TEAM LENGTH (GAMES) REASON
2021 RB Derrius Guice Free agent (Washington) 6 Assault, battery (charges dropped)
2020 WR Antonio Brown Free agent 8 Burglary, battery charges
2019 RB Kareem Hunt Browns 8 Assault incident (no charges)
2019 DT Jarran Reed Seahawks 6 Alleged assault (no charges)
2019 OG Richie Incognito Raiders 2 Disorderly conduct charge
2018 LB Mychal Kendricks Seahawks 8 Insider trading charges
2018 QB Jameis Winston Buccaneers 3 Alleged sexual assault (no charges)
2018 DE Dante Fowler Jr.Jaguars 1 Simple battery charge
2018 CB Jimmy Smith Ravens 4 Alleged domestic violence (no charges)
2018 LB Nigel Bradham Eagles 1 Alleged assault (no charges)
2017 RB Ezekiel Elliott Cowboys 6 Alleged assault, domestic violence (no charges)
2017 K Josh Brown Free agent 6 Domestic violence (charges dropped)
2017 CB Adam “Pacman” Jones Bengals 1 Assault (charges reduced)
2016 DL Sheldon Richardson Jets 1 Speeding charge
2016 K Josh Brown Giants 1 Domestic violence (charges dropped)
2015 S T.J. Ward Broncos 1 Assault (charges reduced)
2015 OLB Aldon Smith Raiders Indefinite (rein 2020) DUI, hit-and-run, vandalism charges
2015 DE Greg Hardy Cowboys 4 (reduced from 10) Assault (charges dropped)
2014 DE Aldon Smith 49ers 9 Weapons charges, other incidents
2014 LB Daryl Washington Cardinals Indefinite (rein 2017) Aggravated assault charges, drug use
2014 RB Adrian Peterson Vikings Indefinite (rein 2015) Misdemeanor child abuse charges
2014 RB Ray Rice Ravens 2 Aggravated assault (charges dropped)
2010 QB Ben Roethlisberger Steelers 4 (reduced from 6) Alleged sexual assault (no charges)
2010 WR Vincent Jackson Chargers 3 DUI charges
2010 CB Aqib Talib Buccaneers 1 Assault charge
2009 RB Marshawn Lynch Bills 3 Weapons charge
2008 CB Adam “Pacman” Jones Cowboys 4 Alleged altercation (no charges)
2008 OT Bryant McKinnie Vikings 4 Aggravated battery charges
2008 WR Brandon Marshall Broncos 1 (reduced from 3) Alleged domestic violence, DUI (no charges)
2007 QB Michael Vick Falcons Indefinite (rein 2009, after 2 games) Felony dogfighting
2007 DT Tank Johnson Bears 8 Weapons charges
2007 WR Chris Henry Bengals 8 Weapons charges, other incidents
2007 CB Adam “Pacman” Jones Titans 16 Alleged assault (reduced charges)
So what’s the takeaway? Only the NFL can answer that properly, because the NFL is still investigating Watson and, theoretically, has a better understanding of the QB’s conduct, having spoken with the new Browns signal-caller and reviewed accusations made against him. Previous incidents of alleged sexual assault or misconduct involving QBs has produced relatively mild suspensions (see: Ben Roethlisberger and Jameis Winston drawing a combined seven-game ban), but with Watson, the difference is there are literally two dozen different women alleging a pattern of abuse. Roethlisberger and Winston, it should be noted, also avoided formal charges relating to their respective cases.
It seems reasonable, especially in light of <em>The Washington Post</em>’s Friday report that the NFL is likely to seek at least a one-year ban for Watson, to assume the QB will be suspended for most of the 2022 season, his first in Cleveland. Watson hasn’t made any indication one way or another regarding his plans regarding a potential suspension appeal, but his contract with the Browns is specifically structured so as to avoid major financial losses due to a suspension in 2022. |
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PITTSBURGH
We recently had a CBSSports.com list of the top 10 receivers. Much to his surprise (if he saw it), WR CHASE CLAYPOOL’s name was not on it.
The Steelers have become somewhat of a receiver factory over the years, developing some of the best players at the position.
But there’s one Pittsburgh player who thinks he should be among the highest-rated receivers going into Year Three — though he knows he still has plenty to prove.
Chase Claypool made an appearance on the latest episode of the I Am Athlete podcast and told hosts Brandon Marshall, LeSean McCoy, and Adam “Pacman” Jones just how confident he is in his ability.
“I’m going to say, my second year, I was a better player than I was my first year,” Claypool said. “The plays just didn’t work out, right? Some of the plays just didn’t go my way. I didn’t make some plays I need to make. But as a football player, understanding the game, knowing what to do, knowing where to be, I was better. So I’m going to be better this year.
“And just like you said, understanding I’m not normal — I feel that way when I’m on the field. I know for a fact I am not like the rest of the guys in the NFL. I know I’m a top-five receiver. I know I’m a top-three receiver.”
Claypool continued that he feels that way in large part because of how he’s able to execute when he’s on the field.
“When I’m working, I’m like, ‘I’m a dog.’ I’m gonna dog people that are lining up across from me, too,” Claypool said. “And I’ve just got to bring that confidence and I’ve got to bring that spirit and I’ve just got to show people. And it’s going to happen. And we’re going to rewind this and we’re going to see this clip in a little bit and they’re going to be like, ‘Damn, he was right.’”
Claypool has displayed plenty of ability in his first two seasons. He caught 62 passes for 873 yards with nine touchdowns as a rookie. But he only had a pair of TDs in 2021, catching 59 passes for 860 yards.
After Claypool made his lofty statement, McCoy wanted to hear numbers — what kind of stats does Claypool anticipate having in 2022? The receiver said 1,300 yards and 10-plus touchdowns.
That could be difficult to do with either Mitchell Trubisky, rookie Kenny Pickett, or Mason Rudolph as his quarterback in the coming season. But if Claypool isn’t confident in himself, who will be?
John Breech of CBSSports.com had 24 receivers he considered for his eventual top 10. Claypool was not among them. |
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THIS AND THAT |
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BREAKOUT PLAYERS
From Nate Tice of The Athletic comes a list of players who are going to break out in 2022:
Let’s look at players who can emerge as significant contributors in 2022 while their roles — and the national awareness of these players — continue to expand.
With one exception, players on this list are entering their second or third NFL seasons and have yet to make a Pro Bowl or an All-Pro team.
QB: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
The breakout candidates at the most important position in sports is essentially a pick ’em amongst the second-year crop.
I recently wrote about the 2021 quarterback class, and if I have to pick one of those players to take a leap this season, it’s Lawrence, the former No. 1 overall selection.
A steadier franchise situation with Doug Pederson as a head coach provides reason to be optimistic about Lawrence’s continued development, and even as a rookie, he showed promising glimpses as a processor while making his teammates better. Those positive plays should become more consistent for the Jaguars, who desperately need good vibes.
RB: J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
Dobbins missed the 2021 season because of a torn ACL after being part of a running back rotation that also featured Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards during his rookie season in 2020. Dobbins might open training camp on the PUP list, but when he was last on the field, he was a valuable weapon for Baltimore’s run-centric offense.
As Dobbins’ rookie year progressed, he went from averaging 4.2 carries in the six games before the Ravens’ bye week to 12.1 carries in the nine games he played afterward. Dobbins’ EPA per rush as a rookie (.15) tops the list of 96 running back seasons, including 100-plus carries since 2020.
Though Edwards also returns to a Ravens offense that likes to utilize several running backs, a healthy Dobbins should have a more-featured role as he returns to Baltimore’s backfield in 2022. Dobbins is such a well-rounded player that, even as a rookie, the Ravens utilized him as a pass protector and checkdown option on third down and during two-minute drives, which allowed him to stay on the field for more snaps.
With a healthier and improved offensive line in Baltimore, look for a bounceback year from Dobbins and the Ravens as they exit the infirmary.
WR: Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens
Compared to the reasoning for including Dobbins, this pick requires a bit more of a leap of faith in projection but a similar line of thinking because of the Ravens’ poor injury luck last season. As a rookie, Bateman played only seven games with starting quarterback Lamar Jackson. In 12 total contests, he caught 46 passes for 515 yards and one touchdown on 68 targets.
The Ravens will always be a run-first team with Jackson at quarterback, but Bateman’s play while Jackson was on the field offers reason for optimism, especially as the two develop more consistency and chemistry with one another.
With 33-inch arms, Bateman provides a bigger target than the recently traded Marquise Brown. That should help Jackson on his throws over the middle. Bateman is also a much better route runner than Brown, with an ability to operate from the slot and on the outside — versatility that meshes nicely with tight end Mark Andrews.
Despite injuries and with a backup quarterback behind center, there were flashes of positive play from Bateman that make it easy to understand why he was a first-round pick (No. 27 overall). And there should be plenty more of these moments in 2022:
TE: Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver Broncos
This is a non-Kyle Pitts selection because Pitts already broke 1,000 yards receiving as a rookie tight end. It’s hard to overemphasize the force of nature that Pitts is, but let’s focus on someone else.
At around 260 pounds, Okwuegbunam is a tight end with the size to play attached to the formation as a blocker in the run game, and he flashes the play strength and technique to be a plus player at the point of attack.
Okwuegbunam was targeted only 40 times last season, but he was a small-sample-size-statistical darling — his 7.4 YAC/reception led all tight ends — and the production matches the eye test.
Okwuegbunam flashed athleticism, playmaking and the all-important ability to win versus man coverage. His 3.08 yards per route run versus man coverage was first among tight ends with at least 40 in 2021, according to TruMedia.
The Broncos’ trade of tight end Noah Fant will naturally lead to an increased role for Okwuegbunam, a 2020 fourth-round pick. Though Denver has other weapons in Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy, Okwuegbunam’s size will give Russell Wilson a safety blanket underneath. Okwuegbunam should be a dynamic auxiliary option who might get highlighted more and more as the 2022 season goes along.
OL: Erik McCoy, New Orleans Saints
McCoy, 24, had essentially never missed a snap in his professional career before suffering a calf injury early during the Saints’ Week 1 win against the Packers last year. Although McCoy returned in Week 7, he did not seem completely healthy until the final stretch of the 2021 season, when he became a beacon of consistency for a battered Saints offense that started four different quarterbacks. He’s the lone fourth-year player on this list because I’m betting on that late-season resurgence to continue in 2022.
McCoy has an excellent skill set of size, technique, athleticism and smarts that every team covets at center. That intelligence allows the Saints offensive line to always move in the correct direction.
It was a shame McCoy was injured so early last season, as he was looking to build upon a positive 2020. With a healthier year, McCoy has a chance to establish himself as a true Pro Bowl-caliber player in 2022.
DL: Justin Madubuike, Baltimore Ravens and Osa Odighizuwa, Cowboys
This was like picking between my favorite kind of chip, so I made it a two-for-one special.
Madubuike has been utilized more on first and second downs so far in his career; only 40 of his 484 defensive snaps in 2021 came on third or fourth down with three or more yards to go, but he is a disruptive player against the run and a useful contributor against the pass. He has the burst and snap timing to shoot through gaps to quickly get into the backfield, especially in short-yardage situations. He also shows the timing to get his hands up in throwing lanes to bat down the ball. Madubuike has improved during his first two NFL seasons, and the arrow is still pointing up for more in 2022.
As for Odighizuwa, fellow rookie and teammate Micah Parsons deservingly gets all of the headlines, but Odighizuwa contributed to a surprisingly strong Cowboys defense and pass rush as a rookie. Though he finished with only two sacks last year, Odighizuwa’s pressure rate on his pass-rushing snaps (9.1 percent) was just behind players such as Cameron Jordan and Dre’Mont Jones and just above Jeffery Simmons’ 8.6 percent.
Though Odighizuwa doesn’t have ideal size, he is also disruptive on run downs. He logged four non-sack TFLs last season, which tied for 28th among defensive linemen. His disruption will be needed if an aggressive Cowboys defense that thrives on big plays hopes to come close to its 2021 production.
EDGE: Kwity Paye, Indianapolis Colts
Paye showed off his initial speed at the snap of the ball during preseason but had an inconsistent beginning of the regular season while battling a hamstring injury.
Though Paye finished 2021 with only four sacks, a light bulb seemed to turn on for him in the second half of his rookie year: Paye had one quarterback hit over his first six games before racking up 10 over the final nine games he played. His pressure rate on pass-rush snaps went from 4.7 percent over those first six games to 10.5 percent over his final nine. That latter rate matches Panthers Pro Bowl edge rusher Brian Burns.
New Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley has historically been among the least blitz-happy play callers in the NFL, which puts more of a priority on the pass rushers to get to the quarterback. With Yannick Ngakoue’s career 55.5 sacks following Bradley to Indianapolis and All-Pro DeForest Buckner occupying the inside, Paye will get opportunities to use his speed and improving technique to tee off on opposing quarterbacks.
LB: Ernest Jones, Los Angeles Rams
Along with contributions from a few other star players you might have heard about, Jones’ outstanding Super Bowl performance helped the Rams win a championship:
Jones started to receive a more significant role as his rookie season progressed. He earned his first start in Week 8 last year and played increasingly more snaps from that point forward before an injury forced him to miss the end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs. He returned for the NFC Championship Game.
Although the play above is on a pass-rush snap, Jones was also effective against the run and as a pass defender. According to TruMedia, he averaged a “splash” play — essentially a significant play for the defense, including sacks, pressures, TFLs and interceptions — once every 20.9 snaps. That was the 14th-best rate among the 101 NFL linebackers who played 400-plus snaps in 2021.
Jones now heads into 2022 as a full-time starter, and his performance in big-time moments as a rookie makes it plausible the Rams defense could have yet another upper-echelon performer.
Safety: Kyle Dugger, New England Patriots
Bill Belichick has historically found ways to use defensive backs in a large variety of ways, and Kyle Dugger was a Swiss Army knife for the Patriots’ defense in 2021.
The Patriots utilized Dugger as a deep defensive back, in the slot, in man coverage against tight ends, as a blitzer and even as a middle-of-the-field zone defender in Tampa 2. His ability to hang with athletic tight ends in coverage helped the Patriots defense finish first in defensive DVOA against tight ends in 2021, according to Football Outsiders.
In a league that appreciates versatility from its players more than ever, Dugger is the prototype. He can hang with receivers in the slot, and his size makes him an effective tackler when bringing down receivers after the catch and when stopping the run, as evidenced by his five TFLs last season.
After being drafted out of Division II Lenoir-Rhyne, Dugger has improved his football awareness, which has allowed him to take advantage of his already excellent athleticism and put himself in better position to make plays.
With cornerback J.C. Jackson gone and the Patriots defensive backfield getting older, Dugger will be asked to do even more in 2022, and he should respond with aplomb.
CB: Patrick Surtain II, Denver Broncos
This one honestly feels like cheating.
Surtain, a 2021 first-round pick, was playing like a top-tier cornerback before last year’s holiday season even started. It’s notable when any rookie is a positive contributor, but the number of rookie cornerbacks who have been legitimate good players over the past decade can be counted on one hand.
At 6-2 with 4.4 speed, Surtain plays with outstanding technique and awareness that reflects his pedigree. He is more than willing as a tackler, and he played like a Pro Bowler in pass coverage to end the year, when former Broncos head coach Vic Fangio increasingly started to leave Surtain on an island in man coverage against talented receivers.
Surtain allowed only 5.7 yards per target last season, according to Pro Football Reference. Out of 286 qualifying players, only 34 were better by that metric, which had Surtain in line with cornerbacks who received significant paydays this offseason, such as Denzel Ward (5.6), D.J. Reed (5.8) and Carlton Davis (6.0).
Surtain will make it hard for the Broncos’ opponents to throw to whomever he ends up locking down on a weekly basis in 2022. Though he’s just 22 years old, he has the ability not only to be a Pro Bowler in his second season, but possibly an All-Pro candidate. |
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HIGHEST PAID PLAYERS
ESPN.com tells us who are the highest paid players at each position at the moment, figured two ways:
Many stars have scored big paydays in 2022 and reset the market, but there are a few whose deals from previous years have carried over as the peak for their positions.
Just this month, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick got a four-year extension from the Pittsburgh Steelers that pays him $18.4 million per year, while Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald obliterated the market, getting $31.6 million over the next three years. The Rams also gave Cooper Kupp a contract extension, which included $75 million guaranteed, edging out the guarantees on the deal Tyreek Hill got when he was traded to the Miami Dolphins in May ($72.2 million).
We tracked the best-paid players at 16 different positions — including long-snapper — and will keep the numbers updated as more records get broken. To get the full picture on the top earners in this league, we sorted positions by two categories, which in a few cases has the same player at No. 1:
Three-year average (APY)
Total guaranteed money
Quarterback
Highest three-year APY:
1. Aaron Rodgers, $50.2 million
Signed: March 2022 (contract ends in 2026)
2. Deshaun Watson (CLE), $46 million
3. Josh Allen (BUF), $45.9 million
Total guaranteed money:
1. Deshaun Watson, $230 million
Signed: March 2022 (contract ends in 2026)
2. Aaron Rodgers (GB), $150.6 million
3. Josh Allen (BUF), $150 million
Running back
Highest three-year APY:
1. Christian McCaffrey, $17.2 million
Signed: April 2020 (contract ends in 2025)
2. Ezekiel Elliott (DAL), $16 million
3. Alvin Kamara (NO), $12.7 million
Total guaranteed money:
1. Ezekiel Elliott, $50.05 million
Signed: September 2019 (contract ends in 2026)
2. Christian McCaffrey (CAR), $36.3 million
3. Alvin Kamara (NO), $34.3 million
Wide receiver
Highest three-year APY:
1. Cooper Kupp, $26.7 million
Signed: June 2022 (contract ends in 2026)
2. Stefon Diggs (BUF), 26.2 million
3. Tyreek Hill (MIA), $25 million
Total guaranteed money:
1. Cooper Kupp, $75 million
Signed: June 2022 (contract ends in 2026)
2. Tyreek Hill (MIA), $72.2 million
3. Stefon Diggs (BUF), $70 million
Tight end
Highest three-year APY:
1. George Kittle, $15.3 million
Signed: August 2020 (contract ends in 2026)
2. Mark Andrews (BAL), $15.06 million
3. Dallas Goedert (PHI), $14.2 million
Total guaranteed money:
1. George Kittle, $40 million
Signed: August 2020 (contract ends in 2026)
2. Mark Andrews (BAL), $37.6 million
3. Dallas Goedert (PHI), $34.8 million
Offensive line
Highest three-year APY:
1. David Bakhtiari, $23.5 million
Signed: November 2020 (contract ends in 2024)
2. Laremy Tunsil (HOU), $22 million
3. Ronnie Stanley (BAL), $21.2 million
Total guaranteed money:
1. Ronnie Stanley, $64.1 million
Signed: October 2020 (contract ends in 2025)
2. Ryan Ramczyk (NO), $60.2 million
3. Lane Johnson (PHI), $54.5 million
Cornerback
Highest three-year APY:
1. Jaire Alexander, $21.7 million
Signed: May 2022 (contract ends in 2026)
2. Jalen Ramsey (LAR), $20.6 million
3. Denzel Ward (CLE), $20.2 million
Total guaranteed money:
1. Denzel Ward, $71.25 million
Signed: April 2022 (contract ends in 2027)
2. Jalen Ramsey (LAR), $71.2 million
3. Marlon Humphrey (BAL), $66.9 million
Edge rusher
Highest three-year APY:
1. T.J. Watt, $30.5 million
Signed: September 2021 (contract ends in 2025)
2. Joey Bosa (LAC), $29.2 million
3. Myles Garrett (CLE), $26.7 million
Total guaranteed money:
1. Joey Bosa, $102 million
Signed: July 2020 (contract ends in 2025)
2. Myles Garrett (CLE), $100 million
3. Khalil Mack (LAC), $90 million
Defensive tackle
Highest three-year APY:
1. Aaron Donald, $31.6 million
Signed: June 2022 (contract ends in 2025)
2. DeForest Buckner (IND), $21.2 million
3. Jonathan Allen (WSH), $18.5 million
Total guaranteed money:
1. Aaron Donald, $60 million
Signed: June 2022 (contract ends in 2025)
2. DeForest Buckner (IND), $56.3 million
3. Vita Vea (TB), $40.5 million
Off-ball linebacker
Highest three-year APY:
1. Fred Warner, $19.5 million
Signed: July 2021 (contract ends in 2026)
2. Darius Leonard (IND), $18.7 million
3. C.J. Mosley (NYJ), $17 million
Total guaranteed money:
1. Darius Leonard, $52.5 million
Signed: August 2021 (contract ends in 2026)
2. C.J. Mosley (NYJ), $51 million
3. Fred Warner (SF), $40.5 million
Safety
Highest three-year APY:
1. Minkah Fitzpatrick, $18.4 million
Signed: June 2022 (contract ends in 2026)
2. Jamal Adams (SEA), $17.6 million
3. Justin Simmons (DEN), $15.5 million
Total guaranteed money:
T1. Minkah Fitzpatrick, $36 million
Signed: June 2022 (contract ends in 2026)
T1. Jamal Adams (SEA), $36 million
3. Marcus Williams (BAL), $35.9 million
Kicker
Highest three-year APY:
1. Justin Tucker, $5.4 million
Signed: April 2019 (contract ends in 2023)
2. Younghoe Koo (ATL), $5.1 million
3. Daniel Carlson (LV), $4.6 million
Total guaranteed money:
1. Justin Tucker, $12.5 million
Signed: April 2019 (contract ends in 2023)
2. Younghoe Koo (ATL), $11.5 million
3. Daniel Carlson (LV), $11.1 million
Long-snapper
Highest three-year APY:
1. Josh Harris, $1.4 million
Signed: March 2022 (contract ends in 2025)
2. Luke Rhodes (IND), $1.21 million
3. Zach Wood (NO), $1.20 million
Total guaranteed money:
1. Josh Harris, $1.9 million
Signed: March 2022 (contract ends in 2025)
2. Zach Wood (NO), $1.3 million
3. Tyler Ott (SEA), $1.2 million
Punter
Highest three-year APY:
1. Michael Dickson, $3.9 million
Signed: June 2021 (contract ends in 2025)
2. Tress Way (WSH), $3.3 million
3. Logan Cooke (JAX), $3.02 million
Total guaranteed money:
1. Michael Dickson, $8.5 million
Signed: June 2021 (contract ends in 2025)
2. Tress Way (WSH), $6.4 million
3. Logan Cooke (JAX), $6 million |
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