Some predictions from Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com as he heads to vacation:

Colin Kaepernick remains unsigned

It’s great to hear all of these coaches and GMs and owners speaking in hypotheticals about the QB who has been systematically erased from NFL free agency for like three years now being an option for them. It’s progress, I suppose. But talk is cheap and through all of my reporting I have yet to hear of one team reaching out to schedule a workout or take any action whatsoever towards actually giving this guy a shot. And I continue to maintain that while it’s not impossible he returns, it may be improbable. And if it does occur, it will be because of injury to a starting QB. And that’s highly unlikely to occur in the next three weeks with no football being played except for, seemingly, in Tampa, where Tom Brady is in midseason form. If Kaepernick gets a shot it will be in-season (or in-camp), I believe. But I don’t hear anything that makes me think anything is close to imminent, as much as it now seems OK for NFL decision-makers to ruminate on the topic in public. 

The NFL preseason will be cut in half, or scrapped

There is little appetite for these exhibitions in the best of times. They were already on the chopping block before. If you think the only game that gets sacrificed is the Hall of Fame game, I have some Brock Osweiler rookie cards I want to sell you for $500 each. My conversations with executives from NFL teams this week left me with the distinct impression that these games will prove to be more trouble than they’re worth. “What is the risk-reward on playing these games?” as one top AFC exec put it. “The core guys barely play at all, the risk of traveling with that many people to play a game no one wants to see just doesn’t make sense. What’s the point? Why risk it?” I suspect common sense prevails on this matter. Getting through this season of 20 weeks will be difficult enough; tacking on four weeks of travel for games that don’t count is an unnecessary exercise.

Rosters will already be cut from 90 to at least 70

I got the distinct impression from chatting with Troy Vincent, the league’s VP of football ops, that carrying 90 bodies into camp might not make the most sense. “It’s a numbers game,” as he put it to me, and these teams only have so much real estate to work with at their facilities. Coaches don’t love this idea … but John Harbaugh and Sean McVay have also indicated how “impossible” it may be to meet the protocols as is. Something has to give here, and it will take massive efforts to get some of these buildings to comply with spacing and testing restrictions even with 53-man rosters. “We’re already bracing for it,” one NFC personnel man told me. “I get it. Most teams could get down to 70 or 75 pretty quickly, and without four preseason games you don’t need those numbers anyway.” One AFC exec said: “It actually would be a good thing for the rookies. Think about it – are you going to cut your sixth- or seventh-round pick without getting a chance to look at him?”

The NFL will be procuring a site for an in-season practice hub for free agents

The XFL has a smart model where potential free agents worked out at one facility with oversight and training from coaches to be prepared as injury replacements. Executives I spoke to believe there is a lot of merit to the NFL adopting this, given the pandemic. Rather than fly in five guys from all over the country on a Tuesday, as normal, if you already have a stable of players under a practice-squad type contract, all staying in shape and being quarantined more or less in one spot, then teams could have what amounts to an in-season combine. The physicals would be done, the testing would be conducted regularly and many of the hundreds of players who would get released in a pre-camp roster purge would have a place to go. All of the metrics – 40-yard dash time, etc – would be available to teams in realtime and you could do Zoom tryouts from that location so that teams only bring one layer in to sign at a time, rather than doing all of these workouts at the facility. Look at the baseball model to minimize how many people are at the ballpark and for how long each day. Expect NFL meetings to largely be Zoomed and I could also see certain practice days at the facility being offense only or defense only. Why have extra bodies around, most of whom aren’t going to be signed anyway? It would requite some investment from the owners, but would have unanimous support from football people.

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

On the week of the PGA TOUR’s Rocket Mortgage Classic (fanless) in Detroit, Governor Gretchen Whitmer is full of warnings, but her underlying message is she will cut Michigan sports teams some slack from her tendency towards draconian orders.  Darin Gantt of ProFootballTalk.com:

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer signed an executive order last week allowing pro sports teams to return to business, without fans. And while she wants to see her local sports teams return, she’s being realistic about what that’s going to look like.

Via John Niyo of the Detroit News, Whitmer said during an interview on 97.1 The Ticket that having many fans in the stands won’t be realistic for some time.

“It’s really important that we resume some normalcy, but do it in a safe manner,” Whitmer said. “I’ve had people say, ‘Oh, you’re gonna cancel sports.’ I said, ‘C’mon, let’s keep our wits about us. I’m not gonna to cancel sports, but we’re going to watch it differently.’ And that’s for our safety. And maybe this is one season of doing it this way, but it’s the smart way to do it to keep the athletes safe, keep the sport going and give us the ability to enjoy it.”

Whitmer has said for weeks that full stadiums probably aren’t a reality until there’s a vaccine, and it seems the NFL is gradually acknowledging that things are going to be far from normal as well. Some teams are holding back ticket inventory, several have offered refunds for season tickets, and the league announced a plan to tarp off the first few rows of seats in each stadium to create a barrier between players and fans (but mostly to sell advertising to offset revenue losses).

While the NFL is a month away from training camps opening, other sports are moving forward with their returns in late July, and concerns remain.

“Any time people are traveling, especially between states and especially coming from a state that’s having such a massive outbreak like Florida is right now, we all have to be cautious,” Whitmer said. “So the MLB and the Tigers have a really thoughtful, evidence-based plan to keep people quarantined to ensure that they mitigate spread and test all their employees as well as the athletes.”

NFC EAST

DALLAS

A prediction from Jason LaCanfora:

Dak Prescott remains on the franchise tag  

Going year-to-year, at his position, and his price-point is hardly a problem. In fact, it allows him to keep a stranglehold on leverage and allows him a $32M bridge to 2021, when the economics of the NFL could be drastically altered for the better. Why lock in on the biggest professional decision of his life amid a pandemic, with so much uncertainty, and owners in a risk-averse mode and looking to save pennies? He knows he will be in with Jerry Jones for another $38M in 2021, and then could call his shots as a free agent in2022 and land a fully guaranteed three-year deal that blows away the $86M Kirk Cousins got be going the double-franchise-tag route. Why give away prime years of your service time now with future caps murky and teams fretting about no fans and completing a season? Forget about giving Dallas the fifth year; I wouldn’t give up the fourth year. Of course there is a risk of severe injury – but how often have we seen that with QBs? Dak had the fortitude to walk away from roughly $30M a year before the start of the 2019 season, and he crushed it. He has the power now. That tag is a rarely a weapon for a player, but it is for him. He should use it as such.

NFC SOUTH

TAMPA BAY

EDGE SHAQ BARRETT is prepared to spend 2020 on a franchise tag.  Kevin Patra ofNFL.com:

Shaq Barrett continues to hold out hope for a long-term deal but isn’t holding his breath.

“Long-term will probably be pretty hard with the situation of the world right now. I think we’re working on a deal, but it probably won’t be long (term),” Barrett told SiriusXM NFL Radio on Monday.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers slapped Barrett with the franchise tag this offseason. The unsure nature of next year’s salary cap due to potential revenue disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic is making it harder for tagged players to get multi-year deals in 2020.

Barrett did clarify last week that he plans to sign the tag if the July 15 deadline passes without a long-term solution.

“We’re just still trying to work something out. But the franchise tag, it wasn’t like 50-50, like if I don’t get something done I’m going to sign that for sure,” he said Monday. “We’re still trying to work to get something done and we were just going to wait as long as we could.”

He added: “I will most definitely be here next year.”

Playing on a one-year prove-it deal, Barrett generated 19.5 sacks in his initial season in Tampa, playing a full-time role for the first time in his career. He is set to earn $15.8 million in 2020. It’s a good chunk of money but lacks the security that would have come with a multi-year deal.

“It is a little frustration because I did do everything I could do and I tried to make it as easy as possible, so there really wasn’t nothing up in the air,” he said. “But I guess that I didn’t do as much as I needed to do, or as much as I thought I needed to do, so I don’t mind having my back against the wall, but I do love security a lot more.”

Barrett is experiencing what most tagged players under team control feel. The 27-year-old seems resigned to the fact that he’ll be playing on a one-year tender — unless a deal gets done in the next two weeks — and hopes to hit the free-agent market next year after another big season.

According to Sport Trac, in his first six NFL seasons, Barrett made just under $10 million total.  Now, in 2020, he is guaranteed to add $15.8 mil to that total.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com takes a look at QB LAMAR JACKSON (edited for space):

This week, I’m going to check in with progress reports for quarterbacks from the 2018 NFL draft. Five quarterbacks were drafted in the first round that year, and I’ll take detailed looks at Lamar Jackson (Tuesday), Josh Allen (Wednesday), Baker Mayfield (Thursday) and Sam Darnold (Friday). Sorry, Josh Rosen; I’ll get to you another time.

Let’s begin with the guy who has made his way to the top of the class. Jackson only entered the starting lineup in 2018 after Joe Flacco was injured, but he instantly transformed the Ravens. They went 6-1 after Jackson took over and they followed their new quarterback to a 10-6 record and AFC North title. After they disappointed in a home playoff loss to the Chargers, though, there were suggestions the league might have figured out Jackson and the run-heavy Baltimore offense.

Well, all Jackson did in his first year as a full-time starter was lead the Ravens to the best record in football and win league MVP. There’s a lot to like about one of the league’s most exciting players after two years, but let’s get into how and why he has emerged as one of the most productive players in all of football. I’ll also cover why he has struggled in the postseason and whether other teams will be able to crib what Tennessee did to slow Jackson in his second consecutive home playoff defeat.

Jackson’s 2019 in review

When this quarterback class arrived, I wrote a two-part series detailing how difficult it is to evaluate quarterbacks and why there was little reason to trust the league to get it right this time around. I also mentioned that regardless of who each team drafted, the most important thing for any QB prospect might hinge upon what the organization does to make itself fit around its new signal-caller.

Enter Lamar Jackson. Twenty-eight different NFL organizations passed on their opportunity to draft the Heisman Trophy winner, including the Ravens themselves, who selected tight end Hayden Hurst at No. 25 before moving up to grab Jackson with the final pick of Round 1. Four quarterbacks were chosen before the Louisville signal-caller, who was the subject of pre-draft chatter suggesting that he would improve his chances of succeeding as a pro by moving to wide receiver. Regardless of what happens from here, Jackson was the league MVP in his first full season as a starter. The majority of the league clearly missed on its evaluation of his pro potential.

Jackson was always a more promising quarterback prospect than detractors suggested, but the biggest thing the skeptics got wrong was that they underestimated the will of the organization that drafted him. Baltimore has molded its offense around his talents. It has paid a premium for players like tight end Nick Boyle and running back Mark Ingram, moves I didn’t like at the time before they made clear sense on the field.

Most crucially, the Ravens took Jackson out of the offense he ran at Louisville. In college, he was a pocket passer in a pro-style, pass-first attack who just happened to be the most productive runner in football. John Harbaugh’s Ravens moved Jackson into an offense that emphasizes his unique abilities as a runner while using that threat to create plays in the passing game. Jackson famously said his performance against the Dolphins in Week 1 last season wasn’t bad for a running back. Unlike the other quarterbacks from his draft class, it’s already clear he is a great quarterback.

After hiring Greg Roman as an offensive assistant in 2017 and promoting him to offensive coordinator before the 2019 season, the Ravens inserted Jackson in a modernized version of the same attack Colin Kaepernick ran in San Francisco and Tyrod Taylor used in Buffalo. The results were spectacular.

– – –

Roman incorporated some of the same concepts he ran with Kaepernick and Taylor in his prior stops, but there’s more motion in this offense than there was in those other attacks. It’s possible Roman picked that up from the Rams, who used heavy doses of jet motion in their zone-rushing attack to create opportunities for Todd Gurley. Motion for the Ravens helps create blocking opportunities and forces opposing defenses into difficult run fits on the fly. The Rams don’t have a running threat at quarterback, but when Baltimore combines those heavy doses of motion with Jackson, the offense gains a numbers advantage in the running game. When you have more blockers and possible runners than defenders on one side of the field, the result is typically a big play.

In coverage, teams can’t count on defending the run against the Ravens with a seven-man box, forcing them to push one of their safeties up and preventing them from playing many two-deep coverages. Defenses also don’t want to play man-to-man coverage and assign one defender to try and account for Jackson, because if the quarterback beats that man as a scrambler, there’s nobody left to help.

– – –

Jackson was a good downfield passer at Louisville, and he was excellent on those throws in 2019. He posted a passer rating of 117.9 when he threw deep in 2019, the fourth-best mark in the league. The Ravens emphasized speed during the 2019 offseason in adding wide receivers Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin and Seth Roberts, but Brown struggled to stay healthy during his rookie season after a two-touchdown debut. If Brown takes a step forward and stays on the field in 2020, Jackson could be even more of a threat as a deep passer.

One other element of Jackson’s college game that has extended to the pros is his ability to pick teams apart when he has an empty backfield. Only three teams went empty more frequently than the Ravens did last season, and Jackson used the space to dominate. He posted the league’s best passer rating (123.8) and QBR (92.2) out of empty sets and then averaged 11.1 yards per carry when he chose to keep the ball himself.

Does Lamar take too many hits?Jeff Saturday isn’t concerned about how many hits Lamar Jackson takes, emphasizing that he has to play to his strengths as a dual-threat quarterback.

Accuracy was my biggest concern for Jackson coming out of college, given his track record, but that wasn’t an issue in 2019.

– – –

We don’t talk enough about Jackson’s intelligence. His decision-making is generally excellent, especially for a quarterback so early in his career. He has only thrown interceptions on 1.6% of his passes.

– – –

For a quarterback who runs as frequently as Jackson does, he has also done an excellent job of avoiding big hits. When I checked in on Jackson last October, I found that he was only brought down with a tackle by an opposing player on about half of his rushing attempts. He almost never slides, but he’s adept at getting out of bounds and often gives himself up before running the risk of taking a hit in the middle of the field. This is a skill, especially in light of how Andrew Luck and current Ravens backup Robert Griffin had their careers altered by taking so many big hits.

The Ravens have taken Jackson’s skills and weaponized them in the context of the offense. As one of the most analytics-friendly organizations in the league, Harbaugh & Co. were already comfortable going for it on fourth-and-short in areas of the field in which other teams were not. Using Jackson as part of the devastating running game forces defenses to stop the run on an extra down, which can make all the difference. Baltimore was 8-for-9 going for it on fourth down with 2 yards or less to go last season, producing more than a half-win by ESPN’s win expectancy model in the process.

Was Jackson’s MVP season a flash in the pan?

Quarterbacks who can run face arguments that their success will be fleeting, owing to the shortened high-level careers enjoyed by guys like Griffin and Kaepernick.

– – –

One thing that did pop up, though, is the idea that teams would do better against the Ravens after seeing Jackson and this offense for a second time. Indeed, the Chargers lost 22-10 and allowed Jackson & Co. to run for 159 yards during the 2018 regular season, but they did much better in a second go-round during the playoffs. Is there any evidence that defenses figure out Jackson and this offense with more reps?

I’m skeptical. By win-loss record, you might be able to make a case, given that Jackson is 16-2 when he plays an opposing defense for the first time and 3-3 in his rematches, but the offense isn’t the problem. Baltimore has averaged 30 points per game in Jackson’s first start against opponents and 29 points per game in rematches.

The evidence that teams are able to figure him out seems mixed at best; for every game like the wild-card loss to the Chargers, there’s an example like the Browns, who faced Jackson in a 2018 loss and then held the Ravens to 25 points in a 40-25 victory in Week 4 last season. In his third and final start against the Browns, whatever knowledge Cleveland had of Jackson didn’t help, as he went 20-of-31 passing for 238 yards and three scores while adding 103 yards on the ground in a 31-15 victory last December.

– –

What about teams that get ahead and make Jackson one-dimensional? Is he exposed as a passer when the Ravens fall behind and he’s forced to throw? You could argue that has happened in both of his playoff losses, though I’ll have more to say about that Titans game in a minute. It makes sense that running quarterbacks would lose some effectiveness once they’re forced to pass, but is that borne out by evidence?

It’s true that Jackson has played worse when trailing, but it’s not a significant difference.According to the regular-season splits at Pro Football Reference, he has posted a passer rating of 108.6 when his team has been in the lead, falling to 101.0 when it’s trailing. If we include the playoff losses, Jackson’s passer rating falls to 91.6 when the Ravens are behind, which is the 17th-best mark in football since the start of 2018. It’s just ahead of players like Tom Brady (89.8), Philip Rivers (89.7) and Jared Goff (87.5), so it’s not terrible.

Over a much more significant portion of his career, Brett Favre would be the ultimate example. From 1994 on, the legendary Packers quarterback posted a passer rating of 112.1 while his team was in the lead. Once Favre fell behind, though, his passer rating fell all the way to 72.0, a difference of more than 40 points! If Favre could make that work and still have a Hall of Fame career, Jackson should be OK.

In an obvious passing situation like third-and-long, Jackson has also been fine. He has posted a passer rating of 82.6 on third down with 8 or more yards to go, which is just above the league average of 82.0. When you use QBR, which factors in his scrambling ability in those situations, Jackson’s 36.6 QBR on third-and-long is the seventh-best mark in football since the start of 2018.

Can teams copy the Titans’ playoff formula?

Since Jackson took over as the starter in Week 11 of 2018, no team has won more regular-season games (19) or averaged more points per game (30.7) than Baltimore. Over that time frame, he ranks third in QBR at 70.2. His regular-season résumé through two years is pristine.

In the playoffs, Jackson’s Ravens are 0-2. His QBR is 20.7. They have lost two home playoff games as favorites after losing just one such game in franchise history before he arrived. I’m not a particularly firm believer in the idea that there’s something different about playoff football, but they have laid two eggs in Jackson’s two postseason starts. I talked about the Chargers game and how teams weren’t able to emulate their 2018 plan earlier, but are teams going to be able to copy the Titans’ formula in beating the Ravens?

Yes and no. There are elements of what the Titans did that you’ll see teams try to make part of their toolbox against Baltimore, but there were also parts of that game that were downright unsustainable. I mentioned the Ravens’ dominance on fourth down earlier in the piece; they went 0-for-4 against the Titans, including a pair of stuffed fourth-and-1 runs. Baltimore scored one touchdown in four red zone trips, while the Titans went 3-for-3, converting on third-and-goal each time. After dropping 10 passes all season, the Ravens’ receivers dropped four Jackson passes in one night. They had six drives of 55 yards or more and produced just 13 points.

Opposing teams can’t count on that happening every week against the Ravens in 2020, but there are ideas they can take away and try to use. One example, as Cody Alexander noted in his breakdown of the game, was that the Titans were able to successfully use a coverage concept known as Invert 2 or Inverted Tampa to gain a numbers advantage.

Invert 2 popped up quite a bit around the league early in the season with limited success. You’re probably familiar with the classic Tampa 2 coverage shell the Buccaneers used under Tony Dungy, with two cornerbacks sitting in the flat and two safeties splitting deep halves of the field. Invert 2 flips those responsibilities, with the cornerbacks taking the two deep halves and the safeties becoming the flat defenders. This coverage shell allowed the Titans to push their safeties up into the box and get eight or even nine defenders in the box, reducing Baltimore’s numbers advantage, while retaining deep defenders for when the Ravens did try to attack downfield.

Tennessee was also able to make its defense look like Cover 3 before the snap before moving to Invert 2 after the snap, and while it didn’t really confuse Jackson on a regular basis, the Ravens weren’t able to take consistent advantage of the weaker spots in that coverage. The Titans didn’t use Invert 2 a ton, but they were brave enough to use man coverage more frequently than most teams did against Baltimore. The goal was to flood the box with defenders and take away both the numbers advantage in the running game and the middle of the field for Jackson as a passer.

The Titans’ safeties played a huge role in the win, and there aren’t many teams that have the sort of safety combination capable of doing what Kevin Byard and Kenny Vaccaro did.

The 2020 outlook

If only because it’s virtually impossible to improve on an MVP campaign, history suggests that Jackson will decline some this season. He threw touchdowns on 9% of his pass attempts last season, which was just the third time a player has managed that over a full season since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The other two guys are Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, who were only able to do that once. It’s no criticism of Jackson to suggest that a 9% TD rate will be nearly impossible to replicate.

Both Jackson and the offense around him were also very healthy. Baltimore’s 14 primary offensive players only missed a total of nine games due to injury, five of which belonged to center Matt Skura. No other player missed more than two games before the Ravens sat their starters in Week 17. They were one of the most banged-up offenses in football as recently as 2017, when they ranked 27th in offensive Adjusted Games Lost.

The players around Jackson have also changed. Hurst was traded to Atlanta for a second-round pick, depriving the Ravens of their third tight end and their best replacement for those times when breakout weapon Mark Andrews struggles to stay healthy. More significant was the retirement of star guard Marshal Yanda, who had made it to eight Pro Bowls across his final nine seasons in the league. The Ravens drafted Tyre Phillips and Ben Bredeson in the middle rounds and signed D.J. Fluker; while they’re one of the best teams in the league when it comes to drafting and developing interior linemen, it’s tough to imagine them getting Yanda-quality play at right guard this season.

With that being said, barring serious injury, Jackson isn’t going anywhere. He’s going to present the same problems for opposing defenses in the years to come, and the Ravens are committed to building their offense around his dizzying array of skills. Asking for another MVP performance in 2020 is likely too much, but he should remain one of the best quarterbacks in football.

CLEVELAND

WR ODELL BECKHAM, Jr. professes not to want a trade to the Patriots.  Kevin Patra ofNFL.com:

Cam Newton worked out with Odell Beckham Jr. this offseason. With the quarterback signing in New England this week, some have already linked the two — because every player must always be speculated as trade bait for the Patriots (it’s a bylaw).

Whether innocent rumor-mongering or hearty speculation, OBJ swiftly rejected the notion that he’d be traded to New England.

After comedian Bob Menery tweeted “@obj to New England? Hmmmm. Welcome to New England Cam! #doyourjob.” Beckham responded, “Lol no sir boss! But y’all got my brother, wishin nothin but the best and LUV.”

Then, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Alex Wood tweeted, “@obj to the Patriots before the season is done. BANK IT!” The wideout quote-tweeted: “U can find me in The LAND homie! We got unfinished business.”

Speculation surrounding Beckham never ceases. Trade rumors swirled amid his disappointing 2019 campaign as he dealt with injury and never developed a rapport with QB Baker Mayfield. Coach Kevin Stefanski recently noted that Beckham is back to 100 percent and ready for training camp. Remaining healthy and authoring a bounce-back season would help Beckham and the Browns get closer to finish that business.

Even if the Patriots have a need for a dynamic, game-changing receiver like Beckham, the Browns don’t seem interested in trading OBJ; it’s unlikely Bill Belichick would part with the trade assets to get it done — he usually prowls for bargains; New England doesn’t currently have the salary cap space; and Beckham doesn’t seem interested in leaving his BFF Jarvis Landry in Cleveland just yet.

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND

QB CAM NEWTON is excited to join the Patriots.  Chris Mason of MassLive.com:

Cam Newton seems to have chimed in on Sunday evening’s news.

After the Patriots reportedly signed Newton to an incentive-laden deal, the quarterback posted on his Instagram story with a new hashtag.

“I’m excited as I don’t know what right now!!” Newton wrote. “All praise to God!! Dropping content tomorrow!! I hope you’re ready!! #LetsGoPats.”

The 2015 MVP is sure to shuffle the depth chart in the Patriots quarterback room. Between shoulder surgeries and a fractured foot, Newton has been banged up since winning that award, but he still boasts immense upside.

ESPN analyst — and former NFL quarterback — Matt Hasselback believed signing Newton was a no-brainer earlier this month.

“I’m not saying Cam’s the perfect guy to do things the Patriot way, but he’s won a lot,” Hasselbeck told WEEI’s Ordway, Merloni and Fauria Show. “(Fifty-eight rushing touchdowns) is a lot of production. And then the passing is pretty good, too. The passing is not amazing — but when you combine that with how you have to defend him differently because of his ability as a runner.

“His issue I don’t believe is the shoulder.,” Hasselbeck added. “He was ready to play last year. He was cleared from the shoulder. Two shoulder surgeries basically in two years, but he was ready to play. It was this foot injury that he didn’t think he needed surgery on in September that he ends up having surgery on in December. That’s the issue for a 260-pound guy that is a very good ball carrier. So I think people need to see where the foot is. I think there is a little anxiety with that.”

Hasselbeck did believe Newton was going to command far more money though. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports the quarterback will earn a maximum of $7.5 million if he hits all his incentives.

“If I’m Cam Newton, I’m not signing anything less than Philip Rivers’ deal with is one-year, $25 million,” Hasselback said. “Which means you’re probably getting half of it at signing. You’re talking about a roughly $13 million bonus on a one year deal. You’ve got to be sure about his foot in that situation. … If I were Cam, I would be trying to get to New England. And the way I see it, New England should want him.”

It seems that Norv Turner was the guy who convinced Belichick to bring in Newton.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

Every analysis on Cam Newton joining the New England Patriots is wrapped in one giant “if” stretched so tight around the examination it threatens to burst into a thousand pieces.

If Cam Newton is healthy. If.

If Newton is healthy, the “competition” with Jarrett Stidham won’t be a competition at all. If Newton is healthy, the Patriots remain contenders. If Newton is healthy, Josh McDaniels’ creativity might be unleashed like it hasn’t been in years, having been shackled with a great but immobile pliability instructor at QB. If… If… If…

Based on his social media posts, Newton looks healthy and has reiterated his foot and shoulder are good to go in 2020.

The man to last call plays for Newton in Carolina, Norv Turner, views Newton in New England as a pairing that can shine. Turner told Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated that he spoke with coach Bill Belichick earlier this offseason and provided a glowing review.

“My whole deal is, when Cam was healthy, and we were there with him [in 2018], we were 6-2,” Turner said. “Just look at the tape — played his ass off. His issue was more health than anything else, and from what I understand, I don’t think these are health issues that he can’t overcome. He’s had the time off now. I think he’ll be great.”

In those eight games under Turner in 2018, Newton looked phenomenal and back to his 2015 NFL MVP level. Turner spent that offseason discussing how he wanted to help turn Newton into a Ben Roethlisberger-type passer. It looked good for eight weeks, as the signal-caller completed 177 of 263 pass attempts (67.3 percent) for 1,893 yards with 15 TDs and four INTs at 7.2 yards per attempt, and rushed 73 times for 342 yards and four more scores.

Then the shoulder issue crept back up, and Newton struggled with accuracy and pushing the ball down the field. He was finally shut down after six more games, as he clearly was not right. Then last year, he played just two games with a foot injury that didn’t allow him to throw more than five yards downfield. In all, Newton hasn’t been healthy during the regular season since Nov. 2018.

As his last coordinator, Turner is an obvious resource for Belichick to reach out to help understand the psyche and ability of the player — especially given the dichotomy with which Newton is perceived differently by much of the public than by teammates and coaches.

Belichick probably didn’t need a ton of help examining what type of difference-maker Newton can be on the field if healthy. All he needed to do was dig out one of his old scouting reports.

“When you’re talking about mobile quarterbacks, guys that are tough to handle, tackle, can throw, run, make good decisions — I mean, I would put Newton at the top the list,” Belichick said in 2017 before a game against the Panthers, via Mike Reiss of ESPN.

“Not saying that there aren’t a lot of other good players that do that, but I would say, of all the guys we play or have played recently in the last couple of years, he’s the hardest guy to deal with. He makes good decisions, he can run, he’s strong, he’s hard to tackle. He can do a lot of different things, beat you in a lot of different ways. We saw that in the game down there in ’13, so I would put him at the top of the list. Not saying the other guys aren’t a problem, because they are, but he’s public enemy No. 1.”

Newton is 2-0 versus Belichick in his career, throwing for 525 yards at a 71.9 percent completion rate with six TDs and one INT. Newton has the highest completion percentage (71.9) and highest passer rating (128.2) among all QBs to make two or more starts versus the Patriots in the Bill Belichick era (since 2000, including playoffs), per NFL Research.

If he stays healthy, Newton in New England will be one of the most intriguing storylines to track during the 2020 campaign. If he can’t, it’s a low-cost gamble by Belichick that can be easily wiped away. The upside for the Pats is enormous if Newton truly returns to form.

Like JAMEIS WINSTON, Newton ends up with a contract in value far below those signed by non-entities like CHASE DANIEL.  Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com:

Richard Sherman said it was “ridiculous” and “disgusting” that Cam Newton had to settle for an incentive-laden contract from the New England Patriots that was well below what a quarterback of Newton’s stature should normally get.

He’s not wrong.

There’s a reason Chase Daniel was trending on social media Monday. The most obvious comparison in quarterback deals is Daniel signing a three-year, $13 million deal with the Detroit Lions this offseason while Newton had to settle for a “bare minimum” one-year deal that can be worth as much as $7.5 million, according to NFL Network. Daniel has become masterful at getting huge deals as a backup quarterback; he has seven touchdowns and five interceptions over 218 career attempts and already has $34.3 million in estimated earnings. That’s before the Lions contract. And he doesn’t have an MVP award like Newton. He’s nowhere near the player Newton is. But he keeps cashing in.

Daniel is the most egregious example but the quarterback market this year has been particularly harsh on two players: Newton and New Orleans Saints backup Jameis Winston.

Teddy Bridgewater signed a contract for $63 million over three years from the Carolina Panthers, Tom Brady signed a two-year deal worth $50 million with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Indianapolis Colts signed Philip Rivers to a one-year, $25 million deal (h/t to Spotrac for contract details). Dak Prescott got the franchise tag worth about $31 million and still has until July 15 to sign a long-term extension with the Dallas Cowboys, so we’ll see how that turns out.

Let’s also include Nick Foles. The Chicago Bears traded a fourth-round draft pick and restructured Foles’ deal for $21 million guaranteed over three years. Presumably they could have had Newton, the better player over their careers, for a much cheaper cost in terms of money and the pick.

Those deals are all justified. The three QB deals that justify Sherman’s ire? Daniel, of course. Also, Marcus Mariota signed a two-year, $17.6 million deal with the Las Vegas Raiders and Case Keenum signed a three-year, $18 million deal with the Cleveland Browns. All three of them will be backups to start the season. None of them are anywhere near Newton as a player. That’s indisputable. All of them got much better contracts than Newton.

Newton waited, but his options never got better. The Patriots weren’t interested in Newton until he “softened his contract demands,” according to Jeff Howe of The Athletic.

Daniel had no problem getting another $13 million, but Newton had to sign a minimum deal. That’s tough to justify.

Why did Newton have settle for such a small contract?

Newton and Winston went a similar route. They signed one-year deals for very little — Winston got a $1.1 million deal and will become the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to lead the NFL in passing yards to change teams and to not start the following season — presumably in hopes of finding a better market next offseason. That will likely end up being better for them than signing a multi-year deal for a little more money per year.

Newton was likely hurt by not being able to work out for teams during the coronavirus pandemic. He had foot surgery last year and his health isn’t certain. There also weren’t many teams in the market for a starting quarterback after the initial moves in free agency. Newton is better than many starters, but teams have talked themselves into who they have or a young player who isn’t proven yet.

Franchises also have a strange stubbornness when it comes to signing quarterbacks for depth. Every NFL team would be better in 2020 with Newton making the league minimum. But teams worry so much about the feelings of their other quarterbacks that they don’t add good QBs even when they’re cheap, though they’d be thrilled to do it at any other position. The Los Angeles Chargers, for one example, would have been a wonderful fit for Newton but they passed. Teams get stuck on old-school groupthink with quarterbacks and aren’t willing to deviate from it.

Even with those reasons, it’s still crazy Newton couldn’t get more. Assuming even moderate health he’s better than Bridgewater, Foles and any of those backups. Brady has obviously had a better career than Newton, and Rivers arguably has too, but both showed signs of decline last season and Newton is much younger than either one.

Newton probably deserved more money, but the NFL didn’t present that option to him. He’ll try again next offseason.

Ron Rivera passed on Newton and went with KYLE ALLEN instead, but he now weighs in about his ex-QB.  From670TheScore.com:

Redskins coach Ron Rivera arrived to an organization in Washington this offseason that’s invested in quarterback Dwayne Haskins, the team’s first-round pick in 2019.

But if his team wasn’t committed to developing Haskins, Rivera would’ve welcomed Washington bringing in former MVP quarterback Cam Newton, who agreed to a one-year deal with the New England Patriots on Sunday.

Rivera developed a close relationship with Newton during their time together with the Panthers from 2011-’19 and believes Newton is healthy enough to make an impact with the Patriots.

“He’s headed in the right direction,” Rivera said on the McNeil & Parkins Show on 670 The Score on Monday. “I mean, he’s probably about as healthy as it gets from what I’ve seen on video. I think he’s ready to bust out.

“I would never bet against the young man, that’s for sure.”

Rivera has seen tape of the 31-year-old Newton’s workouts and sees him healthy once again. He believes Newton still has good football in his future.

“Don’t bet against him,” Rivera said. “I really wouldn’t. First of all, you got to know who he is and understand what all he’s gone through. He’s a guy that’s always tried to do things, I think, because he’s felt the pressure. He felt the pressure of being the No. 1 overall pick. He felt the pressure of having won the Heisman Trophy and being the No. 1 overall pick. He felt the pressure of being a black quarterback, with all the stuff that’s been heaped on him.

“He’s really had to find his way through it, and he’s done a great job with it.”

Kurt Warner, writing at NFL.com, sees similarities between his situation after his time in St. Louis and Newton heading to New England.

It is important to note that this perception was not limited to those within the Rams organization, but widely held throughout the NFL. If I wanted to play again, I had to convince someone that those last two years were not indicative of who I would be moving forward. I had to find a team out there without a QB who would be willing to give me a shot — because they had no other real options — to prove to everyone I could once again play at a high level.

Cam had a similar challenge this offseason, coming off an injury-ravaged campaign in which he looked like a shell of his former self. Given another chance by Bill Belichick, will he show his worth between the lines once more?

The good news is, I am a walking example that perception is NOT always reality. I was given two more opportunities — with the New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals — to prove that the overriding perception of me as a player was not accurate. I was able to return to form, playing at a Pro Bowl level and reaching the Super Bowl once more.

Knowing Cam’s track record and the competitor that lies within him, I would not be surprised if he once again rose to the top of the league.

NEW YORK JETS

Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com thinks S JAMAL ADAMS will remain a Jet:

Jamal Adams is still a Jet

Trying to talk your way off a roster, into a trade to secure a record contract on the other side is a difficult-at-best proposition for a safety under ideal circumstances. Attempting to orchestrate such a maneuver amid a pandemic with the NFL unsure of how this season will unfold, with projections for a flat cap at best and maybe $5B in lost revenue, is, frankly, preposterous. The GM doesn’t want to trade him, no one is going to give away multiple first-round picks for him and then pay him, oh $16M a year. Squeeze every penny you can get from New York and lock in. When you’re a Jet you’re a Jet all the way from your first contract fight to your last big payday. Best bet of getting coin, with so much term left on your deal, plus a potential 2022 franchise tag, in a CBA that makes holding out futile, is to get what you can in this pandemic or try to renew this process in 2021 when there is, hopefully, a vaccine. But whining your way out of town in these times ain’t gonna work.

THIS AND THAT

JOHNNY NO FOOTBALL

Johnny Manziel shows up in Lubbock to play golf and sounds like a 27-year-old retiree.  Don Williams of LubbockOnline.com:

Search Johnny Manziel’s name and right below the obligatory link to his Wikipedia page, Google shows you a list of questions that “People also ask.”

One of those questions being, “Where is Johnny Manziel now, 2020?”

I can answer for this weekend: At Hillcrest Golf & Country Club and, by all appearances, doggone happy to be here. Teeing it up in the Hillcrest Swinger seems a peculiar spot for the 2012 Heisman Trophy winner, inasmuch as he’s known the sports world over for what he did in College Station, not Lubbock, and not for what he can do with a golf club in his hands, but with a football.

Ask Manziel where he considers his football career at this point, and you get a refreshingly candid answer.

“In the past, probably, is the way I’d characterize it,” Manziel said, leaning forward and without a moment’s hesitation. “I’ve finally got to a point where I’m trying to achieve happiness in life, not happiness on the football field.

“I know a lot of people probably want me to come back and play and give it another chance, but I don’t know, as far as being a person and figuring out life as a young adult — trying to make it and figure it out — if I’ve ever been in a better place than I’m in right now. I can honestly say I’m happy and I’m doing the right things to try and put a smile on my face every day, and that means more to me than going out and grinding on a football field.”

– – –

“During that time when I got drafted, I didn’t put in the time that I needed to be a great player and I don’t think my heart was in it,” Manziel said. “And I think when I went back to Canada, it was the same way. I truly believed and truly thought it was what I wanted to do, and my heart wasn’t in it, and it worked out the way it did.”

Sounds strange, you note, to hear Johnny Football say his heart was ever not in the game. All that time at Texas A&M, when he was dazzling college football fans, he seemed to be having so much fun, and it rubbed off on the people watching.

“I had a great time,” Manziel said. “Anytime I ever stepped between the lines, I had an amazing time. I gave it everything I had.

“I think it’s just, the work you put in when you have the free hours and when you do things on your own, that matches up accordingly with what happens on the field. And when you get to thinking that you’re too good or you’re better than the game, it’ll humble you. And that’s what happened. I got humbled. Thank God I did get a chance to be humbled, because when you think you’re at the top of the world, it’s a dangerous place.”

But melancholy Johnny, he’s not. Just the opposite, in fact. A few minutes before, amid the hubbub of dozens of golfers on the patio at Hillcrest, he was laughing, yukking it up, talking loud with guys who, by and large, are new acquaintances. His cap turned backward, he had a bounce in his step everywhere he went.

– – –

Winn Galyean is a friend of Manziel’s family from back in Tyler. Galyean lives in Tahoka now, so this weekend he and Manziel are commuting from Tahoka to Hillcrest. On Friday, they shot 6-under 66 to lead the first flight.

Is there anything Johnny Football doesn’t do well?

Golf is one of those things that, as Manziel says, puts a smile on his face these days. He’s loving life and living in Scottsdale, Arizona. “I’m probably playing six days a week,” he says. “Scottsdale is the mecca of golf, so it doesn’t get any better than that.” His handicap? “I’m probably a 2 right now, but I’ve taken it down from an 8, so I feel like I’m getting better day by day.”

Living in Scottsdale, Manziel and Arizona Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury might as well be neighbors. Manziel loves his old A&M quarterbacks coach. He’s grateful to Kingsbury for trusting a freshman quarterback to freewheel it — that’s hard for a coach to do, Manziel acknowledges. He says he’s grateful even more for Kliff’s helping him get squared away off the field the past couple of years.

“That’s a guy that I admire very, very much,” Manziel said. “I can’t respect another person on the face of the earth as much as I do Kliff. I know he had his challenges here (as Texas Tech head coach). People have their opinions on him here. But, man, what a guy, a guy who’s changed my life for the better and who I’ll always be thankful for.”

Manziel says he and Kingsbury communicate “all the time.” But recreating what they had at Texas A&M? Back up a minute. For one thing, Kliff has Kyler Murray, the latest dynamic dual-threat quarterback and first-round draft choice.

And besides. Manziel’s attitude toward football at the moment seems to be been there, done that. He’s never said he’s retired, and if someone calls he’ll listen.

But Manziel gives the impression he no longer needs it for fulfillment.

Told that he appears content, Manziel says he “couldn’t be happier” than he is right now and then gives a long list of reasons. He’ll always be revered in Aggieland, always have the camaraderie of his teammates and friends from there. He’ll always get to go to the Heisman Trophy presentation, being a past winner. He can look at that trophy at his grandmother’s house and remember the dazzling plays he made on Kyle Field that helped him win it.

Want him to go on?

He has his health. Johnny Football doubts he’ll ever suffer from football-related dementia. He never suffered a broken bone on the football field. Makes sense. Whoever got a clean shot on him?

He loves the Valley of the Sun, the friends he’s made, the people who loved him and never abandoned him when his star was falling.

Oh, sure, if you want to make him a punchline for what he didn’t do as a pro football player, go ahead. Johnny Manziel can handle it.

“People can call me whatever they want,” he says without animosity, “but at the end of the day, I’m proud of what I did. I’m proud of what I accomplished. I bettered myself. I bettered my family’s life. I got a chance to play amazing college football, and it didn’t work out in the NFL and that’s OK.”

KAEP

The story of Colin Kaepernick will come to life courtesy of Netflix. The AP:

Colin Kaepernick is joining with Emmy-winning filmmaker Ava DuVernay on a Netflix drama series about the teenage roots of the former NFL player’s activism.

“Colin in Black & White” will examine Kaepernick’s high school years to illuminate the experiences that shaped his advocacy, Netflix said Monday.

“Too often we see race and Black stories portrayed through a white lens,” Kaepernick said in a statement. “We seek to give new perspective to the differing realities that Black people face. We explore the racial conflicts I faced as an adopted Black man in a white community, during my high school years.”

Kaepernick, born to a white mother and Black father, was adopted in Wisconsin by a white couple who moved to California when he was a child.

In 2016, the San Francisco 49ers quarterback began kneeling during the national anthem to protest police brutality and racial inequality, drawing both support and criticism, with his detractors including President Donald Trump. Kaepernick became a free agent in 2017 but went unsigned.

Writing by on the six-episode series was completed in May, the streaming service said. DuVernay, writer Michael Starrbury and Kaepernick are the executive producers. Kaepernick will appear as himself as the limited series’ narrator, Netflix said.

Further casting details and a release date were not immediately announced.

Kaepernick called it an honor to collaborate with DuVernay, whose credits include the award-winning “When They See Us,” which dramatized the Central Park Five case, and the Oscar-nominated documentary “13th.”

“With his act of protest, Colin Kaepernick ignited a national conversation about race and justice with far-reaching consequences for football, culture and for him, personally,” DuVernay said in a statement. “Colin’s story has much to say about identity, sports and the enduring spirit of protest and resilience.”

Presumably, there is substantial compensation involved here for Kaepernick.