The Daily Briefing Tuesday, June 7, 2022

AROUND THE NFL

CAROLINA

Joseph Person of The Athletic thinks something could be in the works with the Browns for QB BAKER MAYFIELD.   He outlines what needs to be negotiated.

The Panthers and Browns remain in a holding pattern on Mayfield — really, more of a game of chicken — with each side waiting to see if the other will blink and come down on its asking price. But with mandatory minicamps quickly approaching across the league, don’t be surprised if Cleveland and Carolina renew the trade talks that stalled during the draft.

Acquiring Mayfield before the June 14-16 minicamp would give the quarterback a chance to start learning Ben McAdoo’s offense and to get acquainted with his new teammates, including receiver Robbie Anderson, who in April voiced his disapproval of a Mayfield trade on social media.

It also would allow the Browns — already dealing with the fallout of trading for Deshaun Watson — to avoid another quarterback-related distraction if Mayfield reported to minicamp to avoid getting fined. (Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com reported that skipping the three-day minicamp would cost Mayfield about $95,000.)

The sticking point in a potential Mayfield-to-Carolina trade has centered on how much each side is willing to pay toward his $18.9 million salary, which became guaranteed when the Browns picked up his fifth-year option last spring.

The Panthers already have Sam Darnold on their books at the same $18.9 million figure after exercising his fifth-year option. Carolina wants Cleveland to pick up a significant portion of Mayfield’s salary, although the amount could fluctuate based on what the Panthers are offering in return. The higher the draft pick that Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer is willing to include in the deal, the more cash the Browns presumably would be willing to throw in to make it happen.

One possibility would be sending Darnold to Cleveland in a swap of top-three quarterbacks from the 2018 draft. The Browns look to be set with Jacoby Brissett as Watson’s backup. But if the Panthers add a draft-pick sweetener or otherwise convince Cleveland to take Darnold, the money could be a wash. (Carolina’s $24.8 million in salary-cap space is second only to Cleveland’s $30.99 million, according to the NFLPA database.)

Darnold, who turned 25 on Sunday, has been the NFL’s lowest- or second-lowest-rated passer each of the past two seasons. He’s thrown nearly as many interceptions (52) as touchdowns (54) in his four seasons and has a career passer rating of 76.9.

The 27-year-old Mayfield has 92 career touchdowns against 56 interceptions, with a career passer rating of 87.8. He led the Browns to an 11-5 regular-season record in 2020, followed by their first playoff victory since 1994.

Of course, the above scenario assumes dumping Darnold in favor of Mayfield is the Panthers’ preference. Although Matt Rhule has made it clear he remains open to bringing in another quarterback, others in the organization question how big an upgrade Mayfield would be.

It also doesn’t hurt the Panthers’ positioning to have the Browns thinking they’re willing to roll into the season with Darnold and third-round pick Matt Corral as their top QB options.

Cleveland also can try to claim leverage. As the number of women accusing Watson of sexual misconduct continues to grow, the Browns could signal that they’re willing to hold on to Mayfield in the event Watson is suspended or goes on the commissioner’s exempt list. But nearly everyone in league circles believes the Mayfield-Cleveland relationship is broken beyond repair, much like the situation was with Watson in Houston.

NEW ORLEANS

Just as players have flocked to play with QB TOM BRADY with the Buccaneers, there is someone who picked the Saints for chance to team with QB JAMEIS WINSTON.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Wide receiver Jarvis Landry is in his first week of OTAs with the Saints and that’s given him his first chance to work on the field with quarterback Jameis Winston.

Winston is making his way back from last year’s torn ACL and that process still has some way to go before he’ll be at 100 percent. Landry signed with the Saints in mid-May and noted that Winston was still working during the wideout’s post-practice press conference on Thursday while discussing the quarterback’s impact on his decision to come to New Orleans.

“He’s a leader, man. He’s . . . one of the reasons why I came here, just the conversations that we had, the intent that he’s putting behind the things that he’s saying,” Landry said, via Katherine Terrell of TheAthletic.com. “Obviously, out here on the field, what you see is what you get. Look, I don’t see nobody else out here. This guy is the last one. That’s who he is. That’s something that you want at that position and a part of your team.”

Winston threw 14 touchdowns and three interceptions in seven games before his injury last season. He’ll be working with a deeper receiving corps than last year with Landry and Chris Olave joining the returning Michael Thomas.

ARIZONA

LT D.J. HUMPHRIES thinks he and QB KYLER MURRAY are both in Arizona’s long term plans.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

Left tackle D.J. Humphries said you’d have to be a “plum fool” to think Kyler Murray is not the future of the Cardinals. He thinks the same about his own contract situation.

Humphries is scheduled to become a free agent in 2023 after signing a three-year, $45 million deal with the Cardinals in 2020. The $15 million he is scheduled to make this season ties for eighth at his position, per overthecap.com.

Humphries expects the Cardinals to sign him to a long-term extension at some point.

“Hell, yeah,” Humphries said, via Darren Urban of the team website. “Left tackles don’t grow on trees, baby.”

Humphries, 28, joined the Cardinals as a first-round draft choice in 2015, and he has started 75 games since. (He had a 47-game consecutive starts streak stopped after testing positive for COVID-19 before a Week 17 game against the Cowboys last season.)

Humphries, who made the Pro Bowl for the first time in 2021, expects to play in Arizona beyond 2022.

“My plan was to play here my whole career,” Humphries said. “If something happens outside of the plan, you live with how it comes. But the plan is the plan. We’re going to set out to do it a certain way.”

SAN FRANCISCO

C ALEX MACK is calling it a career.  The Athletic:

Center Alex Mack is retiring from the NFL after 13 seasons in the league, according to reports. Mack spent last season with the 49ers.

Mack, 36, was one of the best centers in the league during his career. He landed in the Pro Bowl seven times and earned a spot on the league’s All-Decade Team for the 2010s.

The Browns selected Mack No. 21 overall in the 2009 NFL Draft. He spent seven seasons with the Browns before signing with the Falcons in 2016. He made three Pro Bowls with the Browns, three with the Falcons and one with the Niners.

The 49ers hinted at this move Thursday with Mack restructuring his contract, dropping his base salaries to $1.1 million in 2022 and $1.2 million in 2023, down from $5 million and $3.4 million, respectively.

How much will the 49ers miss Mack?

David Lombardi, 49ers beat writer: Losing one of the game’s most cerebral centers is certainly a tough blow for the 49ers. There’s a reason why Kyle Shanahan coached Mack at three separate stops — with Cleveland, Atlanta and San Francisco — and that’s because the veteran proved to be a coveted fulcrum of the outside-zone attack.

However, the 49ers were not blindsided by this news. They’ve known it to be a possibility for quite some time. On top of that, Mack — though he was certainly a stable upgrade for the team at center in 2021 — was obviously no longer in his prime at age 36. That makes him more replaceable moving forward, but the 49ers must tread diligently since they’ve also lost veteran left guard Laken Tomlinson this offseason after he signed with the Jets.

An interior O-line breaking in at least a new center and left guard seems like a sketchy proposition in front of second-year QB Trey Lance.

– – –

QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO will not be hanging around 49ers mini-camp.  Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com:

As the San Francisco 49ers await a clean bill of health on quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo that could pave the way to his eventual departure, they have excused him from this week’s mandatory minicamp, a league source told ESPN.

That Garoppolo will not participate in this week’s minicamp is no surprise as he has not taken part in the team’s offseason conditioning program. NFL Network first reported that Garoppolo has been excused.

Garoppolo is still recovering from the right shoulder surgery he had in March, a procedure that has delayed the team’s efforts to trade him. While Trey Lance has worked as the 49ers’ starting quarterback during the offseason program, Garoppolo has spent most of his offseason rehabbing in Southern California.

The hope for both sides is that once Garoppolo is cleared to start throwing again — that’s expected to happen at the end of June or early July — a trade will take shape.

“Nothing’s changed since the surgery, we knew where we were at before that, and then he got the surgery, so everything went on hold,” coach Kyle Shanahan said on May 24. “I expect him at some time, most likely to be traded, but who knows. It’s not a guarantee and it’s been exactly on hold when that happened. And when he is healthy, we’ll see what happens.”

While organized team activities are voluntary, the full-squad minicamp is the one part of the offseason program that is mandatory for all players. Those who don’t attend without being excused are subject to fines.

Garoppolo is entering the final season of his contract and is scheduled to count $26.95 million against the 2022 salary cap. Veteran Nate Sudfeld has been the team’s No. 2 quarterback behind Lance in OTAs with rookie Brock Purdy in the No. 3 spot.

The 49ers originally were scheduled to hold minicamp June 13-15 but decided last week to move it up. They’re slated to practice Tuesday through Thursday.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

DT AARON DONALD will be back with the Rams with a big new deal.  No extension, just a big raise.

Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com:

Defensive tackle Aaron Donald will be the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL for the second time in his career. And coach Sean McVay is thrilled Donald is getting paid and continuing his career with the Los Angeles Rams.

“He’s earned it,” McVay said on Monday afternoon on SiriusXM radio. “And he truly is one of one in my opinion. Means so much to me, to our organization. I think the respect that he’s garnered around this league from guys that have done it at such a high level. What he’s accomplished through his eight years is unparalleled.

“[We] wanted to be able to find a solution to getting him taken care of, having him continue to lead the way for our team, for our defense. We had a feeling it was trending in the right direction when he was at my wedding on Saturday night.”

Donald has been the face of the franchise since the team moved from St. Louis to Los Angeles, and by reworking his contract, the Rams have given Donald the opportunity to finish his career with the organization and potentially win another Super Bowl. The deal gives Donald a $40 million raise over the final three years of his existing contract, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter, making him the first non-quarterback to eclipse $30 million per season. The contract is structured in such a way that Donald can either retire or return for the 2024 season for an additional $30 million guaranteed, sources told Schefter.

Donald’s résumé seems endless: three Defensive Player of the Year awards, Defensive Rookie of the Year, first-team All-Pro for seven straight seasons. And now, a Super Bowl ring.

Donald is more than 100 pass rush wins ahead of anyone else in the NFL over the past five seasons, despite being double-teamed at the highest rate in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Nobody else in the top eight on the pass rush win leaderboard over that span is even remotely close to Donald’s double-team rate.

And Donald played big when it mattered most. He had two sacks against the Cincinnati Bengals in the Super Bowl and his nine pass rush wins in that game are tied for the most by any player in a Super Bowl since that stat became available during the 2017 season, according to research by ESPN Stats & Information.

“[He is] the exact epitome of what you’re looking for,” McVay said. “The way he goes about his process, his rhythm and routine, the football character he has, his ability to communicate, his ability to elevate others — that’s where I really think he took a step, where this guy is so complete. There were a couple different moments, especially in that playoff run, where Aaron was more vocal.

“And it’s not by mistake that I think our team was able to do that with him as a big, big piece of that puzzle of what was right about the 2021 Rams.”

With minicamp beginning on Tuesday and Donald officially re-signed after contemplating retirement, the Rams can set their sights on being the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since the Patriots did it in 2003 and ’04.

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com has all the terms:

Aaron Donald is neither retiring nor holding out.

One of the best defensive players in NFL history has a new contract. The deal replaces the final three years of Donald’s prior arrangement with the team. Other contracts, the salary cap, and Donald’s ongoing stellar play made the existing deal obsolete.

The contract, per a source with knowledge of the terms, has no new years. Instead, the existing deal was torn up, and it was replaced by a new contract.

He’ll get $95 million over the next three years. He’s getting, a literally, a $40 million raise.

The contract includes a pair of voidable years. The void kicks in on the final day of the 2024 league year. Which means that the Rams won’t be able to tag him for 2025. Instead, he’ll become a free agent if he wants to keep playing.

He gets $65 million over the next two years, with no offset on guarantees. It’s structured to let him retire after 2023 with no financial penalty. If decides to play in 2024, he’ll get another $30 million.

Here’s the breakdown of the deal:

1. Signing bonus: $25 million.

2. 2022 base salary: $1.5 million, fully guaranteed.

3. 2022 roster bonus: $5 million, fully guaranteed.

4. 2023 roster bonus: $15 million, fully guaranteed and due on second day of 2023 league year.

5. 2023 base salary: $13.5 million, guaranteed for injury at signing and fully guaranteed as of third day of 2023 league year.

6. 2024 roster bonus: $5 million, guaranteed for injury at signing. Fully guaranteed on third day of 2023 league year. With no forfeiture language.

7. 2024 base salary: $30 million, fully guaranteed as of the fifth day of the 2024 league year. It would be paid with $20 million as an option bonus and $10 million as base salary, for cap purposes.

The guarantees have no offset language.

The $95 million in case flow over three years surpasses the $92.3 million paid to Josh Allen and dwarfs the $63 million paid to Patrick Mahomes in the first three years of their respective contracts. It’s the biggest contract ever given to a non-quarterback, and only 11 quarterbacks rank ahead of him in average salary.

He’s the first non-quarterback to pass the $30 million per year threshold.

And it was all done with no new years. And the ability to retire after two years. And the ability, if he so chooses, to sign with any team he wants in 2025.

LAS VEGAS

Brent Musberger’s time as the play-by-play voice of the Raiders has come to an end.  The Athletic:

Brent Musburger out as Raiders’ radio play-by-play broadcaster. The 83-year-old announced his departure from the organization on Twitter but did not specify what his next career move may be.

Raiders radio-play-by-play broadcaster Brent Musburger will no longer be calling games for the organization, he announced in a tweet Friday. Musburger, 83, took over the role in 2018 and remained in the position when the team made its move from Oakland to Las Vegas in 2020.

Musburger’s lengthy career includes stints at CBS Sports, ESPN and ABC Sports. He tweeted that he would “miss broadcast partner Lincoln Kennedy and the radio production crew” but did not specify what his next career move might be. Musburger briefly stepped away from play-by-play broadcasting in 2017 before coming out of retirement to join the Raiders’ radio team.

Musburger’s contract expired this offseason. The Raiders offered no comment.

CLEVELAND

First, the Browns changed the QB market with their guaranteed deal for troubled QB DESHAUN WATSON.

Now, agent Joel Corry explains, they’ve made money for some other tight ends with their contract for TE DAVID NGOKU.

A new important data point entered an already well-defined tight end market several days ago. The Browns signed David Njoku, who was given a $10.931 million franchise tag in March, to a four-year, $54.75 million contract. The maximum value of the deal is $56.75 million thanks to $500,000 of annual incentives in which Njoku makes $250,000 each year he is selected first or second team All-Pro. The amount earned doubles to $500,000 if the Browns also make the playoffs. The deal contains $28 million of guarantees, of which $17 million was fully guaranteed at signing.

Njoku is now the NFL’s fifth-highest-paid tight end by average yearly salary at $13,687,500 per year although he caught just 36 passes for 475 yards and scored four touchdowns in 2021. The Browns didn’t give Njoku the contract because of his past performance. His best season was in 2018 when he had 56 receptions, 639 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

Njoku got the deal because the Browns are expecting his production to substantially increase in a passing game no longer including wide Jarvis Landry and tight end Austin Hooper, who were released in March. Deshaun Watson, who led the NFL in passing yards in 2020, is a major upgrade over Baker Mayfield at quarterback.

Njoku is the clear cut top tight end with Hooper out the picture. Cleveland would be getting its money’s worth from the contract if he can start coming close to replicating or exceeding what the two of them did last season from a receiving standpoint. Hooper and Njoku combined for 74 receptions, 820 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in 2021.

Cleveland can get out of the contract after two years with Njoku making $25 million if he doesn’t take a big step forward statistically. There’s an offset with the $3 million of his 2024 base salary, which becomes fully guaranteed next March on the third day of the 2023 league year. Presumably, Njoku would be able to sign with another team for at least $3 million if released in 2024 so the Browns would be able to recoup the 2024 guarantee from this contract.

The Cowboys and Dolphins can’t be thrilled about Njoku’s contract because of the impact the deal should have on any respective negotiations with tight ends Dalton Schultz and Mike Gesicki, who were also given a $10.931 million franchise tag. The deadline for franchise players to sign long term is July 15 at 4 p.m. ET.

Njoku’s $13,687,500 average per year should become the salary floor on a long-term deal for Gesicki and Schultz. Njoku doesn’t measure up statistically to either player.

Schultz had a career year in 2021 with 78 catches, 808 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He was more productive last season in 17 games than Njoku was over the last two seasons combined in the 29 games he played. Njoku caught 55 passes for 688 yards with six touchdowns. Schultz has 23 more receptions, 120 more receiving yards and two more touchdown catches than Njoku.

Additionally, Schultz is one of four players to rank in the top 10 in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches among tight ends since the start of the 2020 regular season. He is fourth, seventh and tied for sixth in these respective categories. The other three tight ends are Mark Andrews (Ravens), Travis Kelce (Chiefs) and Darren Waller (Raiders).

Gesicki’s 2021 production was also better than Njoku’s over the last two seasons. His 73 catches and 780 receiving yards, both career highs, were 18 more and 92 more, respectively, than Njoku.

There’s a dynamic with Gesicki that doesn’t exist with Schultz. Gesicki could follow in Jimmy Graham’s footsteps and file a grievance to be classified as a wide receiver instead of a tight end with his franchise player designation. The difference in the two tags is $7.488 million as the 2022 wide receiver number is $18.419 million.

Under the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement, franchise tags are determined by the position where the player participated in the most plays during the prior season. According to Pro Football Focus, 54.78% of Gesicki’s 827 offensive snaps in 2021 were in the slot, 11.97% were as an in-line tight end and 30.74% were out wide.

Graham lost his grievance in 2014. Arbitrator Stephen Burbank ruled that Graham was a tight end when lined up in the slot within 4 yards of an offensive lineman, which he did on more than 50% of his plays with the Saints in 2013.

Njoku’s deal probably doesn’t give Schultz or Gesicki ammunition to supplant Kittle as the league’s highest-paid tight end at $15 million per year. Kittle dramatically reset the tight end market in August 2020 by getting nearly 43% more than Hooper’s $10.5 million per year, which had been the standard at that time. Kittle was one season removed from setting the single-season receiving yards record for tight ends, which has been broken by Kelce, and followed it up with a second consecutive 1,000-yard season in 2019.

Three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald became the league’s first $20 million-per-year non-quarterback in 2018. In nearly four years, no interior defensive lineman has been able to surpass the $22.5 million per year that the Rams gave him. A similar phenomenon happening, where Kittle remains at the top of the tight end salary hierarchy for at least another year, wouldn’t be too surprising.

The best bet to replace Kittle might be the drastically underpaid Waller. He got a new deal during the 2019 season when he had two years of service for free agency. Waller was going to be a restricted free agent in 2020 where a second-round tender would have been likely. He signed through the 2023 season in which he gave up three unrestricted free agent years valued at $9,013,667 per year.

Waller has outperformed his contract. During the 2019 and 2020 seasons, Waller averaged nearly 100 receptions for just over 1,170 receiving yards with six touchdowns. He was on his way to a third straight 1,000-yard season in 2021 before being derailed by a knee injury last Thanksgiving.

Waller indicated that his agent was working on a new contract during his recent appearance on the Ross Tucker Podcast. Hunter Renfrow, who caught 103 passes last season, may be ahead of Waller in the Raiders’ contract-extension pecking order because 2022 is the final year of the underrated wide receiver’s four-year rookie contract.

The Lions have demonstrated a willingness to lock up core first-round picks at the early possible instance — after three NFL seasons — inking Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow to a deal last year. An extension this year for 2019 eighth overall pick T.J. Hockenson shouldn’t be dismissed.

Hockenson earned Pro Bowl honors in 2020. His 2021 season was cut short after 12 games because of a thumb injury that required surgery.

The range for a Hockenson extension was the $12.5 million per year Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith both got from the Patriots in 2021 free agency and the $14.25 million per year the Eagles gave Dallas Goedert during the middle of last season prior to Njoku’s signing. The Njoku deal will surely be a topic of discussion should any Hockenson contract negotiations take place this year. 

Two tight ends who have the potential to reach the Njoku salary stratosphere in 2023 free agency with productive 2022 seasons are Evan Engram and Irv Smith Jr.

Engram’s disappointing 2021 campaign with the Giants, where he caught 46 passes for 408 yards with three touchdowns, didn’t prevent him from getting a one-year, $9 million deal from the Jaguars, which has $8.25 million fully guaranteed. He can make as much as $10 million through incentives. The base value of the deal isn’t much less than the $9.293 million it would have cost the Giants to designate Engram as a transition player.

Engram could be in the right place to showcase himself for 2023 free agency. New Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson’s offense with the Eagles was tight end friendly. During his five seasons as head coach in Philadelphia, Zach Ertz averaged close to 80 catches per year, including setting the NFL single-season receptions record for a tight end with 116 in 2018.

New Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is confident Smith will be a big part of Minnesota’s offense this season. A breakout season was anticipated for Smith in 2021 before he was sidelined the entire year after tearing the meniscus in his right knee during Minnesota’s final preseason game last August. Smith will be in line for a big payday in 2023 with a breakout 2022 season.

HOUSTON

Congratulations to longtime coach Romeo Crennel who is calling it a career.  Jordan Dejani of CBSSports.com:

Longtime NFL assistant and head coach Romeo Crennel announced on Monday that he is retiring. The 74-year-old had been with the Houston Texans organization since 2014, serving as defensive coordinator, assistant head coach, interim head coach and senior advisor for football performance.

Crennel dedicated a half-century to coaching the game of football in the college ranks and pros, and said in a statement via the Texans’ official website that he’s looking forward to spending more time with his family.

“Football has been my entire life and it’s been a dream come true to coach for 50 years,” Crennel said in a statement. “There are so many friends to thank who have helped me and supported me throughout my career. I especially want to thank the fans and owners of the New York Giants, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans for allowing me to contribute to the game that I have loved so much for so long. I’ll miss everything about coaching and teaching, but the thing I’ll miss the most is being around the guys every day. My goal was to put every player and coach in the best position to succeed and I consider every guy I coached or worked with a part of my family. I would also want to thank my wife Rosemary and my three daughters, Lisa, Tiffany and Kristine, for all of their support over the years. Because of their love and selflessness, I have been able to live out my dream. I’m thrilled to have the opportunity to spend more time with my grandchildren while staying around the game of football.”

Crennel got his start in the NFL with the Giants in 1981, and would go on to work for five other organizations. According to the Texans’ website, Crennel was a part of 17 playoff appearances, 13 division titles, six conference titles and was on the winning side of five of the six Super Bowls he coached in.

While he was a legendary assistant, Crennel spent many years as a lead man as well. He called the shots as head coach in 95 NFL games with the Browns, Chiefs and Texans, finishing with a record of 32-63. His best season as a head coach came in 2007 with Cleveland, as the Browns went 10-6. Crennel went 4-8 during his time as Houston’s interim head coach in 2020, and became the oldest person in NFL history to serve as a head coach at age 73.

JACKSONVILLE

QB C.J. BEATHARD with a potentially serious injury.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Jaguars may have a significant injury concern with their backup quarterback.

According to multiple reporters on the Jacksonville beat, C.J. Beathard was carted off the field at Monday’s OTA practice. He was down on the field for several minutes before the cart came out to take him for further examination.

Beathard is in the second season of a two-year deal he signed with Jacksonville last offseason. He appeared in a pair of games in 2021 while backing up Trevor Lawrence. Beathard completed both of his passing attempts for 33 yards.

Beathard was a 49ers third-round pick in 2017. He’s appeared in 21 games with 12 starts, compiling a 2-10 record.

The Jaguars also have Jake Luton and EJ Perry behind Lawrence at QB.

Per Eugene Frenette of Jacksonville.com, outside linebacker Jordan Smith also left the field due to injury during Monday’s practice.

THIS AND THAT

“MOST RELIABLE” PASS CATCHERS

Nick Shook of NFL.com with some secret sauce analytics to determine the NFL’s “most reliable” pass catchers.

10  Adam Thielen

Minnesota Vikings · Age 31

Catch rate: 70.5%

Expected catch rate: 64.7%

Catch rate over expected (CROE): +5.8%

Thielen makes a repeat appearance on this ranking, but unlike last year, he won’t be joined by his younger teammate, Justin Jefferson. That’s a surprise, considering Jefferson finished with the second-most receiving yards in the NFL (1,616). But Thielen outranks him because of the degree to which he exceeded expectations. (Jefferson finished with a CROE of +2.4 percent.)

Thielen has been doing this for a while now; since 2018, he owns a CROE of +11.4 percent outside the numbers and +25.7 CROE in the red zone. Those two marks are good for second and first among all qualifying pass catchers in that span.

He was once again reliably effective in a variety of situations in 2021. Thielen helped Vikings passers post a passer rating of 145.8 when targeting him against man coverage, tying for the best mark in the league. And even as he’s shifted to more of an outside receiver role (after being aligned wide on 44 percent of snaps in 2018, he was wide on 72 percent in 2021), he’s proving to be an effective target, regardless of situation. That CROE of +5.8 percent (on 95 targets) confirms it.

9  Ja’Marr Chase

Cincinnati Bengals · Age 22

Catch rate: 63.3%

Expected catch rate: 57.1%

CROE: +6.2%

This darling of the 2021 season (and winner of the Offensive Rookie of the Year award) certainly earned his spot here, resetting the rookie record for most receiving yards in a season (1,455). He also keyed an unlikely run to the Super Bowl for the Bengals, setting another rookie receiving record (most postseason receiving yards: 368) in the process.

Chase sits relatively low on this list because of how his catch rate over expected and overall catch rate compare to those above him. None of that should diminish what Chase accomplished in his first NFL campaign. He became the first rookie in the Next Gen Stats era (beginning in 2016) to lead the league in receiving touchdowns on deep passes (seven), set an NGS record for the most receiving yards on go routes (542) and led the league in receiving yards (923) and touchdowns (11) outside the numbers.

A good chunk of those robust receiving totals came after the catch. Chase finished second in the NFL in yards gained after catch over expected with an astounding +356, but surprisingly, only +73 of those came on go routes. This brings to mind one signature play: Chase’s 82-yard touchdown in a Week 7 blowout of Baltimore. Operating with 2 yards of pre-snap cushion, Chase ran a slant, won inside leverage, caught an on-time pass from Joe Burrow, then put three Ravens defenders in a blender before taking off for the end zone. The expected yards after catch was 3.2. He gained 76.2, making for a +73 YACOE on that play alone, equaling his entire total for the season on go routes.

Chase is special. He’s another player who would have posted a higher CROE with fewer targets. (Each of the top four on this list fell below 78 total targets.) He’s going to be a star for a long, long time.

8  Davante Adams

Las Vegas Raiders · Age 29

Catch rate: 72.8%

Expected catch rate: 66.6%

CROE: +6.2%

Like Ja’Marr Chase, Adams ended up with a surprisingly low ranking here because his CROE was suppressed by his high target total. Adams was targeted on 30 percent of Green Bay’s total passes last season, the second-largest target share of any pass catcher in the NFL (minimum 200 routes), and the reasoning is simple: He is a premier receiver, no matter the route and location. Need proof? Well alright …

Adams tied for the most receptions when targeted on go routes, tied for the most receiving touchdowns on slant routes (three), led the NFL in receptions (77) and yards gained down the seams (914), finished third in yards per route run, tied for fourth in touchdown receptions outside the numbers (six) and finished fourth in yards after catch (667). He also was not slowed by physical defenders, finishing in the top five in receptions and yards versus press coverage.

Davante does it all, and he’ll be expected to do more of the same in Las Vegas. If he’d owned a lower target share in 2021 — and perhaps a less accurate quarterback than Aaron Rodgers — Adams would’ve landed higher on this list.

7  George Kittle

San Francisco 49ers · Age 28

Catch rate: 75.5%

xCatch: 68.9%

CROE: +6.6%

Allow me to take this moment to welcome a premier tight end back to the top 10. Kittle missed this group one year ago due to injuries, but he’s back with a vengeance after another Pro Bowl campaign.

We’ll keep this brief, because the explanation is simple: Kittle is a run-blocking beast … and just as rugged a player with the ball in his grasp. His production when aligned tight — not flexed out, where other athletic tight ends tend to find themselves these days — amounted to the second-best marks in yards per target (10.8) and yards per route (3.3). He’s an every-down threat no matter the play call, and he’s excellent at making the difficult look easy.

6  Cooper Kupp

Los Angeles Rams · Age 28

Catch rate: 75.9%

xCatch: 69.2%

CROE: +6.8%

Rhett Lewis is definitely going to come after me for this one. And frankly, I get it. There’s no shortage of impressive figures from Kupp’s triple crown season. The Rams star set Next Gen Stats’ single-season record for most receiving yards gained on out-breaking routes (527), and caught the game-winning touchdown pass on such a route in Super Bowl LVI.

But since we’re ranking these pass catchers by catch rate over expected, well, this is where Kupp lands. Kupp’s gross statistics are astounding. He recorded the most receiving yards when aligned in the slot (1,321) in the Next Gen era by a wide margin (no other receiver has broken 1,000), and his 89 receptions and nine touchdowns out of the slot also top the charts in the NGS era. Matthew Stafford’s 2021 passer rating when targeting Kupp out of the slot was also the highest ever at 141.9, and Kupp was uber-reliable when opposing defenses send the blitz, helping Stafford post a perfect passer rating when targeting Kupp against extra pressure. Kupp’s eight touchdown receptions against the blitz, unsurprisingly, were also tied for the most by any player in the history of Next Gen Stats.

The résumé is sterling. The production is obvious. The ring is going to need polishing. But as a result of a massive number of targets — his 191 were the most in the NFL — Kupp’s catch rate over expected was lower than others on this list.

5  Hunter Renfrow

Las Vegas Raiders · Age 26

Catch rate: 80.5%

xCatch: 71.7%

CROE: +8.8%

The third-down master and route-running wizard stepped up in a big way for the Raiders in 2021, leading the team in receiving yards (1,038) despite averaging just 10.1 yards per reception.

What we already know about Renfrow shined through in the numbers: His sure hands made him an easy go-to target for Derek Carr, no matter where his routes originated, and the way he ran his routes made him a problem for defenses in almost every situation. Renfrow finished fourth in average target separation when aligned wide, racked up the sixth-most receiving yards (643) when aligned in the slot, and tied for 10th in receiving touchdowns caught outside the numbers (five).

When this guy lined up in a bunch formation, he was devastating. Renfrow ran 17 more routes than the next-closest player out of bunch sets, saw 11 more targets, caught 11 more passes and gained 49 more yards than the next-closest receiver. It’s no surprise, then, that he led the NFL with four touchdowns on out routes, catching 23 of 29 targets for 195 yards.

No matter where he lined up, Renfrow was a tough cover and an easy target. He’s not a burner and won’t torch defenses downfield, but he’ll make plenty of money with his skill set. Add in the sure hands and you have a top-five receiver at exceeding expectations.

4  Kendrick Bourne

New England Patriots · Age 26

Catch rate: 78.6%

xCatch: 69.6%

CROE: +9%

Now here’s a surprise. Perhaps we can chalk this up to New England’s reversion to a run-first offense of eras past, as the Patriots finished eighth in the NFL in rushing yards per game in 2021. That helped open things up for Bourne to make a difference at a variety of depths, posting the league’s best catch rate over expected on passes of 10-plus air yards (+31.9 percent) while also gaining an NFL-leading 9.5 yards per target on passes of fewer than 10 air yards. Catch-and-run was the name of Bourne’s game, as he tied for fourth in yards gained after catch over expected at +156.

Bourne isn’t a name you expect to see on this kind of list, but the combination of his ability to make an impact at a number of depths, his run-after-catch threat and New England’s unpredictability — even with a rookie at quarterback — all help explain Bourne’s placement.

3  Tyler Lockett

Seattle Seahawks · Age 29

Catch rate: 68.2%

xCatch: 59%

CROE: +9.2%

In the past, Lockett was a speedster who made an impact in the middle portion of the field (between the numbers). In 2021, that changed a bit. Lockett became a sideline stud, catching 13 boundary targets (less than 2 yards from the sideline) — the most such receptions in the entire league. That total was the most in a single season for Lockett during the Next Gen Stats era (dating back to 2016), and stands as proof of skill progression for a receiver who already boasts the highest catch rate over expected on targets outside the numbers since 2018.

Considering Lockett set a new career high for receiving yards (1,175), it should come as no surprise that he landed on this list’s podium. He remains a downfield threat, owning the most receptions (51) and receiving yards (1,790) on throws of 20-plus air yards since 2018. Defenses reacted accordingly in 2021, giving him plenty of cushion, but it didn’t help much. Lockett caught 67.1 percent of his 73 receptions with cushion of 5 or more yards, and he finished sixth among all receivers and tight ends in completed air yards (886), accounting for 75.4 percent of his total receiving yards.

The inclusion of more perimeter targets is the defining shift in Lockett’s overall receiving résumé. He ran corner routes at the highest percentage in the NFL (10 percent) — and thanks in part to that aforementioned cushion, he averaged a route depth of 13.9 yards.

What we’re seeing from Lockett is a receiver who has become a complete pass catcher capable of making a difference all over the field. Defenses are wise to give him space — they just better cover it faster than they did in 2021. Lockett, meanwhile, will have to hope the Seahawks find a quality replacement for Russell Wilson.

2  Christian Kirk

Jacksonville Jaguars · Age 25

Catch rate: 74.8%

xCatch: 65.4%

CROE: +9.4%

Two plays essentially defined Kirk’s final season in Arizona, and they came in the first two weeks of the campaign. Lined up as a slot in a trips formation in Arizona’s Week 1 trouncing of Tennessee, Kirk ran a fade route that eventually registered as a corner route (in Next Gen Stats’ route-tracking database), thanks to Kirk using outside leverage against cornerback Kristian Fulton — playing man coverage in a single-high safety look — to his advantage. With six pass rushers bearing down on Kyler Murray, the quarterback lofted a pass to Kirk, who won the race toward the back corner of the end zone for a touchdown.

A week later, he did it again in the win over Minnesota, running a streak toward the middle of the field against another single-high look and leaving cornerback Mackensie Alexander in the dust, giving Murray an opportunity to deliver a pass with seven rushers closing in on him for a hugely important 35-yard gain on fourth-and-5.

That was Kirk’s maximum value in Arizona. He was a slot receiver used predominantly downfield, running the fourth-deepest routes on average when aligned in the slot among all receivers (minimum 200 slot routes) while also finishing first in catch rate over expected (+11.8 percent), third in receiving expected points added (+40.6) and fourth in receptions (59) and receiving yards (722) out of the slot. He averaged 14.6 yards per target on passes of 10-plus air yards, including 11 yards per target versus press coverage.

It was all about attacking defenses with Kirk’s speed from the slot in 2021. He’ll attempt to do the same — with a healthier bank account — in his first season with the Jaguars.

1  Tee Higgins

Cincinnati Bengals · Age 23

Catch rate: 67.3%

xCatch: 57.5%

CROE: +9.8%

We spent much of 2021 raving about the record-breaking debut season for Ja’Marr Chase, but the Bengals didn’t get to the Super Bowl on the strength of the rookie alone. While Chase victimized defenders down the sideline, Higgins played an important role in the often-overlooked (but ever-important) intermediate portion of Cincinnati’s passing attack.

Higgins’ catch rate didn’t land near the top of the league, but the most important metric in these rankings — catch rate over expected — separates him from the rest. As a receiver who operates in the most congested area of the field, Higgins consistently exceeded expectations, finishing with the sixth-most receiving yards (503) and fourth-most expected points added on intermediate targets. And in that traffic-filled region of the field, Higgins proved to be an ideal target to find open space, settle in and catch accurate passes for positive gains, with 73 percent of his total receiving yards coming via air yards (801).

All of this combined to help Higgins post the league’s top catch rate over expected at +9.8 percent. It certainly helps to have Joe Burrow as your quarterback, but Higgins proved he’s pretty darn good at playing the position, too.