AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
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The Packers give up a home game (in a season when nine would be scheduled for the first time) to play their first international game. Grant Gordon of NFL.com on the record five international contests:
Five NFL teams will host 2022 international games in three countries — highlighted by the Green Bay Packers’ first international trip and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the first-ever regular-season game in Germany, Grant Gordon of NFL.com reports.
The Arizona Cardinals will host the NFL’s first game in Mexico since 2019, while the Packers will be joined by the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints in hosting games in the United Kingdom. The Bucs will debut in Germany.
“We are very excited to be staging five games outside the United States in 2022, and thank the owners for their continued commitment to growing the sport internationally,” NFL executive vice president of club business and league events Peter O’Reilly said in a statement. “Our fans in Germany, Mexico and the UK can look forward to seeing some of the most iconic names and biggest stars in the League and enjoying an incredible series of events.”
Country (city) Stadium Home team
Germany (Munich) FC Bayern Munich Stadium Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mexico (Mexico City) Estadio Azteca Arizona Cardinals
UK (London) Tottenham Hotspur Stadium Green Bay Packers
UK (London) Tottenham Hotspur Stadium New Orleans Saints
UK (London) Wembley Stadium Jacksonville Jaguars
The selection of Tony Boselli for the Hall of Fame gets the Jaguars a piece of the Hall of Fame Game. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
The first NFL game action of the 2022 season will feature the debuts of a couple of head coaches.
The Pro Football Hall of Fame announced that the Jaguars and Raiders will square off in the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio on Thursday, August 4. Doug Pederson will get his first chance to call plays for the Jaguars while Josh McDaniels will be on the Raiders sideline for the first time.
It will also be a homecoming for McDaniels. He went to McKinley High School in Canton and played games at the same stadium he’ll be coaching at this summer.
Both teams are represented in this year’s Hall of Fame class. Former Jaguars tackle Tony Boselli and former Raiders defensive lineman Richard Seymour were part of the five-man class selected by voters from a group of 10 finalists while former Raiders wideout Cliff Branch got in as a seniors candidate.
Safety LeRoy Butler, official Art McNally, linebacker Sam Mills, coach Dick Vermeil, and defensive lineman Bryant Young round out this year’s Hall of Fame class.
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Jeff Howe of The Athletic assesses the QB market that will unfold at the Combine:
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers isn’t just keeping the Packers on standby.
Several teams have expressed some level of interest in acquiring the reigning MVP this offseason if the 38-year-old prefers to leave Green Bay, according to sources. Rodgers is under contract through the 2022 season and is expected to make a decision about his future by the time free agency begins March 16.
The interest around the league could continue to spike this week as nearly every head coach and general manager travels to Indianapolis for the scouting combine, where the groundwork is commonly laid for personnel decisions in restaurants, meeting rooms, hallways or anywhere else that could spark a quiet conversation.
Rodgers headlines the list of veteran quarterbacks who figure to lead the discussion. As such, inquiring teams want to know if they’ve got a shot at him before diverting their attention elsewhere. The Broncos, who hired former Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett as their head coach, are the perceived favorite to lure away Rodgers, but they won’t be the only apparent suitor.
The Commanders have already inquired about every quarterback who might be available, according to a source. The early digging is a sign that they plan to be aggressive in an attempt to upgrade the position. The Colts, Buccaneers, Saints, Panthers and Steelers also figure to be diligent, according to sources.
Teams are also continuing to monitor Deshaun Watson’s legal situation, and sources inferred they would kick the tires on Russell Wilson’s availability. Both quarterbacks have no-trade clauses.
Watson is still facing 22 civil lawsuits alleging sexual misconduct, though he has denied all wrongdoing. The Texans have continued to ask for five to seven assets, including three first-round draft picks, in any potential trade for Watson, according to sources.
The Dolphins and Panthers explored a move for Watson prior to the November trade deadline, but talks stalled when Watson refused to settle the civil suits. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross requested a phone call with Watson at the time, but the quarterback rejected the idea because he didn’t intend to settle the legal matter.
The Seahawks already rebuffed multiple strong trade inquiries for Wilson last offseason, according to sources. They don’t intend to trade Wilson unless they see no other choice — either by Wilson demanding a move or playing hardball with any future contract discussions.
There are other situations to monitor as well.
The Raiders are prioritizing a contract extension with quarterback Derek Carr, according to a source. He has one year remaining on his deal.
While the Saints appear willing to scour the market, they appear to be comfortable with the possibility of re-signing quarterback Jameis Winston, who is coming off a torn ACL, according to a source.
Quarterback Kyler Murray, who is eligible for an extension this offseason, submitted a contract proposal to the Cardinals, his agent Eric Burkhardt announced Monday.
The Browns are also facing an intriguing offseason with quarterback Baker Mayfield, who will play under the fifth-year option in 2022. Mayfield had surgery to repair a torn shoulder labrum and likely won’t be ready until late in the offseason workout program or by training camp. The Browns might also be players in the veteran quarterback market.
Another element to keep in mind: There will be so much focus on the veteran market because the league is generally lukewarm on the draft class. There isn’t a consensus top prospect yet, with Malik Willis, Matt Corral, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder and Sam Howell in the conversation. This is best viewed as a developmental class, much more so than the star-studded group that turned out five first-rounders in 2021, so there aren’t any surefire answers for teams that have set out to resolve their quarterback situation.
And the momentum toward this offseason movement should intensify this week in Indy.
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NFC EAST
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DALLAS
Darrelle Lincoln of Total Pro Sports sees a bleak future for RB EZEKIEL ELLIOTT in Dallas:
No matter how tip top shape Ezekiel Elliott comes into a season, it is very apparent he is never going to be what he once was before he signed his massive deal. Elliott endured one of his worst seasons as a pro for the Cowboys in 2021. He still totaled 1,002 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, but he averaged a career-low 58.9 yards per game and just 4.2 yards per carry, the third-lowest mark of his career. He added 287 receiving yards and two TDs on 47 catches.
So what are the Cowboys to do? Release him?
Mike Fisher of SI.com believes the NFL’s highest-paid running back “almost certainly” will not return to the team in 2023 as his $90 million contract is currently constructed.
“Zeke is on the books in 2022 for $18 million. There is no realistic way to say goodbye to that … until spring 2023, at which time Dallas could (pre-June 1) absorb a $6 million dead-money hit or (post-June 1) walk away with no financial penalty,” Fisher wrote.
“Book this: Zeke Will not be playing for this team under this existing contract in the 2023 season. He will almost certainly be cut and/or offered a new pay-cut deal.”
Pro Football Focus had Elliot finishing as the No. 32 RB among 62 qualifiers.
“#Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott had 15 carries of 20+ more yards in 2016 (344 carries). He’s had 10 since 2019 (794 carries),” tweeted Marcus Mosher of Locked on Cowboys.
Not helping matters last year was him revealing after Dallas’ playoff loss to San Francisco that he’d been playing with a partially torn posterior cruciate ligament in his right knee.
“The PCL injury was something that we feel will heal with rest,” McCarthy said earlier this month, via Fisher. “It says something about Zeke, not only his commitment but his toughness.”
McCarthy added: “He had a tremendous start to the season all the way up to Carolina. Carolina is when he was injured. (Before that) it was clearly the best he’s looked in my time here, physically.”
His injury status is why the Cowboys used Tony Pollard more during the 2021 NFL season than they had in years past.
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NFC SOUTH
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TAMPA BAY
This from Rick Stroud:
@NFLSTROUD
According to Ali Marpet’s father, Bill, the Bucs offensive lineman has had several discussions with the Bucs before reaching his decision. “From what I can gather, he just wants to be healthy the rest of his life,” Bill Marpet said, adding Ali had no health issues.
This from Peter King – and we note the use of the word “educated”:
I think, by the way, I will not be surprised if Tom Brady, sometime in the next year or two, says he wants to play football again. Educated hunch.
And this from the DB – not educated –
Could Marpet join Brady’s road company (there is precedent with TE ROB GRONKOWSKI) as the two or three of them move to a new team?
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NFC WEST
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ARIZONA
QB KYLER MURRAY professes to want a new contract from the Cardinals. Cassandra Negly of YahooSports.com:
Kyler Murray declared his two main goals and objectives in a lengthy statement released by his agent, Erik Burkhardt, on Monday amid ongoing reports of discord between the quarterback and Arizona Cardinals.
Murray “absolutely wants to be [the Cardinals] long term QB” and “desperately wants to win the Super Bowl,” Burkhardt wrote in the statement’s opening.
Burkhardt went on to explain Murray’s desire for a long-term contract and the “detailed contract proposal” he sent to the team. In more bold text he wrote, “actions speak louder than words in this volatile business.” And he concluded the statement in a third line of bold text:
“Kyler remains hopeful that the organization choses to commit so that he can continue leading the Cardinals to further success and value for many years to come.”
Murray, Cardinals reportedly have strained relationship
Earlier this month there were reports of discontent between the Cardinals and their star quarterback. ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reported that the relationship is strained and they are at “odds” with each other. Murray was reportedly frustrated with the 34-11 playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
The Cardinals answered with a statement saying they have “high regard” for Murray and nothing has changed. Murray turned heads when he scrubbed any mention of the Cardinals from his social media accounts before any reports of issues. Five days later, he broke his silence on the matter as rumors circulated and said the “nonsense” was not what he is about.
Murray’s agent lists goals for extension
Murray, 24, is entering the final year of his rookie contract and is eligible for an extension. He’s under contract for more than $5.4 million in 2022 and $4.5 million is a roster bonus that’s fully guaranteed, according to Spotrac.
Burkhardt did not give a specific contract number that was offered to the Cardinals. In the statement, he said it was important to Murray that the proposed number:
provides financial protection [and] is in-line with the current QB market that compares his results alongside relevant comps
lowers his 2022-23 salary cap number to allow the Cardinals to re-sign other deserving teammates and add additional free agents
most importantly represents a real commitment from the organization to see if their ultimate goals align with his two above (consistently competing for championships and Kyler being their QB).
Murray was named rookie of the year in 2019 after the Cardinals drafted him No. 1 overall. He’s been to two Pro Bowl during his three seasons. Burkhardt said it’s now up to the Cardinals to “decide if they prioritize their rapidly improving” young star quarterback.
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LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Rams don’t draft early, but when they draft late, they draft well. Peter King:
There is a secret to the Rams’ success, and it is hidden in plain sight. Who knows how long the Rams will be able to stay on top of the NFL, but one of their big keys has been making chicken salad out of chicken feathers. Over the past five years, GM Les Snead and his personnel team have done that as well as any team in the league.
Since 2017, the Rams have not picked earlier than 44th in any draft. So since Sean McVay took over as coach, they haven’t picked till—at the earliest—the middle of round two. It’s well-documented that they’ve used high picks to acquire veterans (Jalen Ramsey, Matthew Stafford, Von Miller among others). And it obviously paid off with the Super Bowl win this month.
But if you sacrifice all those picks, you better be very good with the lower picks. The Rams have had 40 picks in the third through seventh rounds of the last five drafts (8.0 per year, on average). Twelve of those players, or undrafted players, from the last five years played 30 percent or more of the snaps in the 2021 championship season, per Pro Football Reference. A 13th, Sebastian Joseph-Day, was on his way to playing half the snaps this year but was hurt in midseason. Four more Rams mid-round picks since 2017—John Franklin-Meyers, Samson Ebukam, Josh Reynolds and John Johnson—played at least a third of snaps for other teams in 2021.
Just think: 15 of 40 mid- and low-round picks, plus two undrafted guys, played prominent roles on NFL teams in 2021 … and 12 were major cogs for a Super Bowl winner.
The Rams who graduated from just guys in the last five drafts to wearing Super Bowl rings today, ranked by percentage of snaps played for the Super Bowl champs in the regular season:
1. Guard David Edwards (169th pick, 2019), 99.6 percent playtime
2. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp (69th pick, 2017), 94.0
3. Safety Jordan Fuller (199th pick, 2020), 88.5
4. Center Brian Allen (111th pick, 2018), 82.9
5. Defensive tackle Greg Gaines (134th pick, 2019), 67.1
6. Linebacker Troy Reeder (undrafted, 2019), 58.6
7. Running back Darrell Henderson (70th pick, 2019), 46.6
8. Safety David Long (79th pick, 2019), 44.4
9. Cornerback Donte Deayon (undrafted, 2018), 39.6
10. Linebacker Ernest Jones (103rd pick, 2021), 37.8
11. Safety Nick Scott (243rd pick, 2019), 35.5
12. Linebacker Terrell Lewis (84th pick, 2020), 31.6
Two postscripts:
• The Rams have traded their top three picks this year, but will start draft weekend with eight, including five compensatory picks. Knowing Snead, I’d expect the Rams to have nine or 10 picks before the draft is over. They just won’t be high ones. That hasn’t been a problem recently.
• For this to work, there has be a good relationship between the coaching staff and the personnel staff—because the coaches have to know the formula is to get a lot of low-drafted players ready to play. Rams safety Nick Scott, a seventh-round pick in 2019, is a great example. He was a special-teamer mostly in his first two years while learning how to be an NFL safety. When injuries forced him to play this year, he was more than ready. Among safeties who played at least two playoff games this year, Scott was third in the league in passer-rating allowed (47.9), per PFF. So the coaches got Scott ready, and when his moment came, he played winning football. My point here is that lots of coaches like to play veterans and won’t give young players, particularly the lesser ones, early chances. With the Rams, it’s built in that they have to.
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AFC NORTH
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CLEVELAND
Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com believes the Browns should be thinking about a QB upgrade:
Try to take a big swing at quarterback.
After four years of Baker Mayfield in Cleveland, what do we know? He is tough. He is surprisingly good in commercials. Get him in a game in which everybody is counting him out and the former Heisman Trophy winner usually plays well. Those are the positives.
In the big picture, though, Mayfield has really only been a difference-maker in situations where everything around him was right. In the second half of both the 2018 and 2020 seasons, he was playing behind a healthy, effective offensive line in offenses that were running the ball well. When the conditions are ideal for a quarterback, he’s capable of holding up his end of the bargain. When the line is banged up and the running game isn’t hitting on all cylinders? Things aren’t as pretty.
There’s a whole class of middle-tier quarterbacks who can look good when they get lots of help, and they’re mostly unloved at the moment. The Vikings might regret the two deals they’ve handed Kirk Cousins. The Colts appear to regret trading for Carson Wentz (just as the Eagles likely regretted giving him a big extension in 2019). The Rams regretted extending Jared Goff (after telling everyone within earshot that he was a franchise quarterback), then won a Super Bowl after dumping Goff’s contract on the Lions as part of a trade for Matthew Stafford.
As Mayfield enters the final year of his rookie deal and gets a pay bump to $18.2 million, the team has to explore their options. The Browns amassed extra picks during their tanking phase. They have an excellent offensive line and one of the league’s most dynamic run games. Their defense jumped from 25th in DVOA in 2020 to 11th last season. Mayfield had a cheap contract, but now he’s more expensive, and the organization is facing the possibility of paying him a lot more in the years to come.
Tom Brady isn’t a free agent this time around, but if there’s any team in the league that should be trying to emulate what the Bucs did and go all-in for a superstar quarterback, it’s the Browns. It’s unclear whether Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson will be available, but getting one of those guys would be worth three first-round picks. Mayfield would have some trade value in a deal with teams such as the Commanders, Panthers or Saints.
If the Browns can’t land one of those big fish and stick it out for one more go-round with Mayfield, that’s fine. If the opportunity arises to make a significant upgrade, though, general manager Andrew Berry should take his chance.
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AFC SOUTH
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HOUSTON
Peter King thinks about QB DESHAUN WATSON:
I think it’s crazy that the trade situation of Deshaun Watson is as muddled today as it was on opening day almost six months ago and at the trading deadline four months ago. Nothing of substance has changed. It probably won’t change till it is determined in Texas by approximately April 1 whether Watson is charged with any crimes in conjunction with the 22 women who have accused the Texans QB of sexual misconduct. Watson has missed the chance to be traded before the 2021 season. He has missed the chance to be traded at the ’21 deadline. He will almost certainly miss the start of QB-trading season when the league year opens on March 16. It’s insane that the Watson camp has not driven this situation to a conclusion, regardless how much it might hurt Watson’s reputation and wallet. As it stands now, a team that waits to see the legal outcome for Watson might be passing on the majority of this year’s QB crop and maybe even the draft. I just don’t understand slow-playing this for a year, and now longer.
I think that doesn’t even include whatever sanction the NFL levels on Watson. Roger Goodell has the right to suspend players who have not been found guilty of a crime, and has done so, as Mike Florio pointed out the other day. Ben Roethlisberger was suspended for six games (reduced to four) when he was accused of sexual misconduct but not charged criminally. It would be surprising if Watson were not suspended regardless of the outcomes of those cases. So let’s say Texans GM Nick Caserio goes to the combine this week and talks with other GMs (Philly? Washington? Pittsburgh? Carolina? Denver?) about Watson. Is there a GM willing to commit three first-round picks plus a little something else for Watson when said GM has no idea when Watson will take the field for him? I wouldn’t, without legal clarity. That’s for sure.
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Bill Barnwell advises the Texans to look for youth:
Don’t settle for veteran stopgaps and build a young core.
In Nick Caserio’s first full season as Houston general manager, he built a team almost entirely out of competent veterans. The Texans signed dozens of players to short-term deals to fill out their roster, and while they weren’t hopeless on the field, it only got them to 4-13. Caserio had a coherent plan, and the Texans were handicapped by the moves made during Bill O’Brien’s run in charge of personnel, but I’m not sure what happened helped the long-term trajectory of the franchise.
When you weight each team’s snaps by the average age of the player on the field, the Texans were the 20th-youngest team last season. That’s not productive in context with other bad teams. Compare them to the other teams that won five games or fewer. The Lions were the youngest team. The Panthers were second. The Jags were eighth, while the Jets were ninth and the Giants were 10th. It’s one thing to be bad; it’s another to be bad without at least building much of a future core.
This year, the Band-Aid has to come off, regardless of what happens with Deshaun Watson. It’s one thing to sign veteran offensive linemen to help keep your quarterback alive, but the Texans should not be relying on Rex Burkhead and Danny Amendola to play meaningful roles, even if they are still competent professionals. This organization needs to focus on building a Super Bowl-winning roster, and it is a few draft classes away from ever reaching that point.
If Houston comes out of another offseason with a roster full of guys on short-term deals, it’s not going to amount to much more than spinning its wheels.
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INDIANAPOLIS
As Bill Barnwell looks at the Colts, he isn’t so sure they should dump QB CARSON WENTZ without getting something in return:
Keep Carson Wentz?
Wentz’s future seems murky at best. Just one year after arriving in town for what would eventually become first- and third-round picks, ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reported earlier this month that the Colts are expected to either trade or release him before March 18, when the remaining $7 million of his $22 million base salary and a $5 million roster bonus will guarantee. The other $15 million is already guaranteed, so if Indianapolis can’t find a team to take on the deal, it will be on the hook for that $15 million whether or not he plays for the team in 2022.
With that being said: Are we sure this is a great idea? I’ve never been the most fervent Wentz supporter — and I don’t think we’re ever going to see the 2017 version of him reappear — but the only other quarterbacks the Colts have on their roster are Sam Ehlinger and James Morgan. Was Wentz really bad enough for the Colts to prefer starting over with a blank slate? Is it really worth writing off as sunk costs the first- and third-round picks Indy sent to Philadelphia?
You can’t make that case on the field. Yes, Wentz was disappointing after returning from a COVID-19 case late in the season, and you could argue that he was the biggest reason the Colts lost their final two games and missed the postseason. Facing the league’s 21st- (Raiders) and 31st-ranked (Jaguars) pass defenses, he averaged fewer than 6.0 yards per attempt, took seven sacks and turned the ball over twice. The Colts scored 31 points on 18 drives. Wentz overthrew a wide-open T.Y. Hilton for what might have been a huge gain in the fourth quarter of the loss to the Raiders.
Was he the only disappointing part of the roster during those two games? No. The defense had three sacks in two games, allowed long opening drives for touchdowns in both and failed to stop the Jags and Raiders on all three of their fourth-down conversion attempts. After the offense tied up the Raiders game with 2 minutes to go, the defense allowed a 10-play, 60-yard drive to set up a game-winning field goal. Wentz didn’t play well in those games, but the defense wasn’t playing its best football, either.
Over the course of the entire season, Wentz was more good than bad. Playing behind an offensive line that was operating at less than 100% for most of the season because of injuries, he finished ninth in Total QBR, 13th in adjusted net yards per attempt and 16th in DVOA. You can pick whichever metric you would like, but his individual performance was somewhere around above average across the whole of the season. He also started a full season’s worth of games for just the third time as a pro, although he did suffer a foot injury in the summer and was compromised by COVID-19 in the final two games.
Wentz got to play with superstar running back Jonathan Taylor, but the Colts didn’t have an imposing set of receivers. Michael Pittman Jr. had a breakout Year 2, but Wentz was otherwise throwing to Zach Pascal, Nyheim Hines and Mo Alie-Cox. The offseason decisions to bring back Hilton on a one-year deal and count on Parris Campbell to stay healthy did not pay off.
While Wentz’s decision to turn down the COVID-19 vaccine might have limited his ability to recover before those final two games of the season, he is not the only key player on the Colts who reportedly isn’t vaccinated. Linebacker Darius Leonard missed the Week 16 victory over the Cardinals because he was unvaccinated and placed on the COVID-19 list. All-world guard Quenton Nelson, who was reportedly unvaccinated in August, was also on the COVID-19 list and unavailable against the Cardinals.
Those players are better at their positions than Wentz is at quarterback, but the Colts don’t have any clear path to a replacement. The organization is undoubtedly frustrated by what happened at the end of the season, but dumping Wentz without a solution isn’t going to fix what happened.
If Indianapolis doesn’t think he is part of its long-term future, that’s one thing. If it gets offered a first-round pick by the Buccaneers or Steelers and wants to get off the Wentz wagon, I could understand. Still, given what the Colts put into acquire him, what they’ve already committed financially for 2022 and how competent he was for most of his lone season in blue and white, the idea of dumping him for nothing just doesn’t add up.
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THIS AND THAT
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BROADCAST NEWS
We have long thought that the TV audience for the Super Bowl is undercounted. A new study agrees. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
A new study suggests that the actual number of Americans who watched at least part of Super Bowl LVI was significantly higher than previously believed.
The actual number of viewers who watched at least some of the Super Bowl was 208 million, according to the NFL and Nielsen, relying on both the standard Nielsen data that has been used to measure TV viewership for decades, and a new survey by the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center to determine viewing of the Super Bowl outside people’s homes, such as at parties, bars and restaurants.
That 208 million figure is 25 percent higher than the 167 million that Nielsen previously said watched at least some of the Super Bowl, but Nielsen is now accepting that the 167 million figure was an undercount, owing to the unique nature of the Super Bowl as an event that people often watch in large groups.
“While it’s no secret that the Super Bowl is the biggest event across the media landscape on a yearly basis, the exact number of people watching the game has been challenging to pinpoint given the fact that people tend to gather in groups to watch the game,” said Paul Ballew, chief data and analytics officer of the NFL, in a statement, via the Wall Street Journal.
The most commonly cited viewership number for Super Bowl LVI is 112.3 million people, which is Nielsen’s estimate of how many people were watching the game at any given time during the broadcast.
Peter King surveys the upheaval in the television booths:
All the things you need to know about the story of these nutty TV announcer contracts:
• It’s all up to Joe Buck now. After Troy Aikman leapt to the head of the analyst class by jumping from Fox to ESPN for between $18 million and $20 million a year, the focus is on Buck. He is 52. He is in the last year of his Fox contract. He is Fox Sports, having done the World Series and the biggest Fox NFL games for the last two decades. He is in his prime, and should be for years to come. Maybe he hasn’t been shown the love at Fox, and maybe he feels without his pal Aikman it’s time for a change. But this is a very close call. I think he’ll meet with Fox, hear out his bosses, and decide if he’d be happy staying there with a new football analyst on a long-term deal.
I don’t know how Buck’s love of baseball factors into this. My guess is if it’s gone this far, he may want to leave, and I doubt Fox would want an admitted lame duck in such a high-profile gig. If so, we’ll see if Fox lets him out to join Aikman at ESPN. But Buck is the next domino to fall.
• Whither Al Michaels? Once NBC hired Mike Tirico in 2016, it was a matter of time before he’d succeed Michaels on the network’s Sunday night game. The time is now. Michaels, 77, who does not want to retire, seemingly had found a landing spot with the new Amazon Prime Thursday night package in 2022. Amazon hired NBC executive producer Fred Gaudelli to do the Thursday games (that is not changing), which seemed to make Thursday perfect for Michaels, because he and Gaudelli made a great team at NBC. Amazon thought it had Michaels—it still might land him—but Michaels wanted to see who his analyst would be first. He wanted Aikman. He would have been happy with Sean McVay. But when McVay said Friday he was staying in football, his first two options were gone. So now, if Buck stays at Fox, it’s logical that Michaels talks to ESPN. If Buck goes to ESPN, Michaels may still take the Amazon job, whoever the analyst is.
• Sean McVay stays on the sideline. In the end, he didn’t fall for the these-big-TV-jobs-might-not-be-there in-two-or-three-years storyline, and good for him. He knew he could make $15 million a year or a little more coaching the Rams; a new coaching contract will be signed prior to training camp. McVay also knew he could make maybe $19 million a year doing games on TV, and at some point go back to take a big coaching job. But he decided at 36 he wasn’t going to have many opportunities as golden as he has in L.A., with a defending Super Bowl champion, a quarterback and receivers he loves, and, he hopes, the best defensive player of the century, Aaron Donald, returning to try to repeat. Wherever McVay would coach in, say, 2026 would very likely not have all those benefits. His new gig might have been closer to a startup.
I found this really interesting: At least one TV titan who would have benefited from McVay’s jump to the booth told him not to go. No way this job’s as good as trying to repeat with a potentially great team. McVay agreed.
McVay spurned TV also because his love of coaching hasn’t been quenched. This is a big deal. Ten days ago, before McVay went on vacation, the Rams needed an offensive coordinator and linebackers coach. One of the linebacker-coach candidates was former Denver staffer Chris Beake, who was fully intending to follow a good friend, Vikings defensive coordinator Ed Donatell, to Minnesota. But in a 20-minute conversation with McVay, Beake was swayed. He said he never had so much fun talking football. If McVay had been serious about jumping to TV, he wouldn’t have poured himself into recruiting Beake.
• The collateral people. Your guess is as good as mine about Fox’s top team if Buck leaves. My guess: Fox promotes the promising Kevin Burkhardt to the top chair, probably with the rising young Greg Olsen. At ESPN, who knows. They’ve been all over the map in the last five years, with three play-by-players and five analysts and Peyton and Eli on a secondary broadcast. If Buck or Michaels slide into the number one chair, that means ESPN has to find jobs for Steve Levy, Louis Riddick and Brian Griese. How many more MNFers can they find chairs in the ESPN football universe?
• I’m not convinced Monday night matches Fox anymore. The average of Aikman’s ESPN deal is probably about $6 million more than what Aikman would make at Fox. So it’s understandable why he’d jump. But as one industry kingpin told me over the weekend: “Troy gets one Super Bowl out of the deal at ESPN, in the last year of his deal, and no championship games, and some weeks with not a great game. He walks into a place with Peyton and Eli Manning, guys on his own team, trying to chip away at his ratings. He leaves a place with two of the next three Super Bowls, with a championship game every year, doing one of the best two or three games every Sunday.” It’s hard to argue with two things: The ESPN money was far better that the Fox deal, but the ESPN job is not as good.
• CBS and ESPN are paying Tony Romo and Troy Aikman more than Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen and Mike Evans will make in 2022, and I don’t know why. One of my readers, Stephen McGinnis of Evansville, Ind., said it better than I could: “Do networks actually expect that this will result in more viewers? In watching the NFL for five decades, I have never once heard anyone decide to watch a game based on who the announcers are. Whoever is broadcasting the Super Bowl could pick mid-level Big 12 announcers and they would have exactly the same number of viewers.”
• Read Andrew Marchand. The New York Post sports media columnist has been all over the story. He wrote Thursday night, explaining the Aikman move: “He had an out in his contract in which he could say he would not do ‘Thursday Night Football’ this season. With that leverage, Fox agreed to give Aikman a four-year extension at $13.2 million per year, according to sources. There was one final stipulation to the contract — Aikman could opt out after this season if he were to secure a bigger and better contract, according to sources. That’s a key part of this story—I hear Aikman was told if he got an offer $2 million more than Fox was paying, he could leave—and Marchand was dead-on. Aikman actually got much more.
• Et al. Amazon might make a run at Drew Brees for the game analyst role. He’d like to do games … Sean Payton could end up in Amazon’s Thursday pre-game team, or on a network team as analyst with a savvy number one … One other thing about Payton: It’s not a lock he’ll go back to coaching. If he likes the TV life, and if no great coaching job surfaces, the 58-year-old Payton could make a life for himself in TV. He wants to be good at it, not just make it a way-station in his football life.
From what the DB hears, King has some pretty good insight here.
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2022 DRAFT
Peter King:
On Saturday evening, I downloaded NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah’s brain for one hour. I’d have loved four. The week-long NFL Scouting Combine starts Tuesday in Indianapolis, and as Jeremiah walked me through the good, the bad, and the meh, five truths became evident:
1. Bad QB draft. Only once in the 21 drafts of this century has there not been a quarterback drafted in the top five—or top 10, for that matter. That was in 2013, when E.J. Manuel (16th overall) was the lone first-rounder. Looking like it could be similarly slim pickings this year, unless a QB-desperate team falls in love with Pitt’s safe Kenny Pickett or a project like Liberty’s Malik Willis.
2. Good draft for edge players and wideouts. On his overall draft board, Jeremiah has six edge rushers in his top 20 players. ESPN’s Todd McShay has five and Matt Miller of ESPN has six in his top 20. Regarding wideouts: “Just record my answer and play it back for the next 20 years,” Jeremiah said. “This draft is loaded with wideouts, and we’re going to see a massive amount every year.”
3. Jacksonville has a good choice atop the draft. With three top-10 tackles possible, the Jags could choose to improve at left tackle (incumbent Cam Robinson’s average PFF ranking at tackle over the past three years: 38th) or to give defensive end Josh Allen a strong bookend presence with an edge player.
4. Consensus top pick 59 days from round one? No overwhelming one. It’s probably Michigan edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson (30.5 tackles behind the line last year). Seems very clean on and off the field, and could be a Jared Allen effort player with great production. One of the tackles or more athletic edge Kayvon Thibodeaux of Oregon will give Hutchinson competition.
5. You want to have lots of mid-round picks. Depth draft. There are starters to be had through five rounds at tight end, interior line, running back, linebacker, safety and wideout. That bodes well for a team like Baltimore, which will have five picks in the fourth round, and seven overall in the third and fourth.
“One of the things I like about this draft,” Jeremiah said late in our conversation, “is the uncertainty. There’s not one obvious player for Jacksonville at one. There are some intriguing players you’re going to have take risks on. A corner like [LSU’s] Derek Stingley—if he goes in the top five or he goes 40, I won’t be surprised. That’s going to be part of the fun of this draft. There’s so much we don’t know.”
And this:
Now for the quarterbacks. There’s a very good chance Carolina (at 6 in the first round), Denver (9), or even Washington (11) could have their pick of any quarterback in the draft. It’s also possible that the lot of them could last till middle of the round. Too early to tell. But if you have a major quarterback need—Carolina, Denver and Washington all do—would you feel great about trying to solve it this year with a question mark?
Jeremiah’s smart about this position. Five years ago, when Patrick Mahomes lasted till 10th overall and Deshaun Watson 12th, the quarterback quality in the pre-draft process was suspect.
“I might be a little more cautious this year,” Jeremiah said, “but it’s not a star-studded group.”
This is how suspect this year’s class is. When I asked Jeremiah if there was a quarterback, with the right coaching, who could be very good, he mentioned Pitt’s Pickett and Liberty’s Willis.
“I think Kenny Pickett is ready to come in and play right away,” Jeremiah said. “Could be a solid player. A good, solid starter. I’ve compared him to kind of a little more athletic version of a Matthew Hasselbeck if everything hits right for him. He was a good player for a long time.”
True. But teams are not going to fall over themselves to draft “a little more athletic version of Matthew Hasselbeck.”
That’s the issue with taking a quarterback here. You either take a low-ceiling player who might pan out into a good starter, or you take a Willis, who absolutely will need to work with a good QB mentor for a year before you’d think of throwing into the fire.
“Malik Willis to me is like the ultimate wild card,” Jeremiah said. “What you get right now is going to be a lot different than what he is two or three years down the road. Could be a huge payoff. But there’s some risks associated with that. As with any of these quarterbacks, I think it comes down to getting in the right fit with the right group of people and having proper patience.
“But if they all dropped out of the first round, and I needed a quarterback early in the second, I think I’d try to roll the dice with Willis and say I’m gonna gamble on greatness, and there’s a chance I could hit it big.”
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