The Daily Briefing Tuesday, March 21, 2023

THE DAILY BRIEFING

The Commish is set to cash in.  Ryan Glasspiegel of the New York Post:

ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that the NFL owners and commissioners are expected to finalize a contract extension when the owners meet next week in Phoenix.

 

The report said that specific duration of the contract and financial figures were unknown, though a three-year deal has been previously discussed.

 

The deal, Schefter wrote, is expected to “be incentive-laden and, considering the league’s financial success, the most lucrative deal ever given to any commissioner in any sport.”

 

The New York Times reported in 2021 that Goodell’s total compensation for the 2020-21 fiscal year approached $64 million.

 

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At the time Goodell signed his last extension, in 2017, the league said that his tenure in charge would conclude with the deal in 2024.

 

“The commissioner has been clear he views this as his final contract,” former NFL communications executive Joe Lockhart said at the time.

 

Goodell’s last contract extension came after a challenge from Jerry Jones, the powerful owner of the Cowboys, who threatened to sue the league over the deal.

 

This go-round, according to Schefter, “appears to have gone considerably more smoothly.”

 

The NFL has warded off what appeared to be multiple existential crises for the league several years back, including the Ray Rice domestic violence tape and all of the fallout from Colin Kaepernick kneeling during the national anthem and subsequently failing to land a job in the NFL.

 

In 2022, the NFL accounted for 82 of the top 100 most-watched programs on linear TV, including the six highest spots and 22 of the top 23.

 

Under Goodell’s stewardship, the league finalized new TV deals in 2021 that kicked in last season — including a blockbuster contract with Amazon — and are worth a total of $100 billion over 11 years.

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

Peter King on the Bears and their trade out of the top spot:

1. Chicago. The Bears traded ownership of the draft to Carolina, then owned the first week of free agency.

 

After a conversation with Bears GM Ryan Poles the other night, it sounds like the trade was almost THE TRADE. Poles told me he had significant discussion with Houston at number two that could have made him trade down twice in the top 10—with both the Texans and Panthers. He wouldn’t be specific on what broke down, but he did say: “I thought there was an opportunity to do something historically pretty cool with a trade from one to two and two to nine. That had potential to add more draft capital this year, and then the possibility that you’re sitting on three ones in the following year. That had my attention. But my gut told me to trigger on it now. At the combine, I thought those quarterbacks did an outstanding job in their interview process. A lot of teams felt really good about some of those guys, but as you get further away from the combine, maybe there’s a bad pro day or something that turns teams off.”

 

My sense is that Poles is close to Carolina GM Scott Fitterer from years of road scouting and personnel conversations, and he could get a read on exactly what Carolina would do and what it wouldn’t. He doesn’t know Houston GM Nick Caserio as well, so it could be Poles was never sure how far the Texans would go to do the deal. In a draft with questions about all the top quarterbacks and no Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence in the group, once Carolina agreed to send wideout D.J. Moore and two ones and two twos, Poles was convinced he shouldn’t wait.

 

“Scott and I have a pretty good relationship, being around each other on the road,” Poles said. “I think that played a big part of it. And trust. He wanted to get it done. He was clear with his intentions.”

 

As for the free-agency investments, Poles staked big claims on two defenders, Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards, to remake the linebacker corps. Combined, he committed seven years and $91 million to Edmunds and Edwards after both had breakout seasons last year. Edmunds will play this year at 25, Edwards at 27. Edmunds was inconsistent in Buffalo, but, per PFF, was football’s best cover linebacker last year. Edwards was the league’s sixth-rated linebacker last year, per PFF, with the versatility coach Matt Eberflus demands from his every-down linebackers. (Edwards played 1,183 snaps in Philadelphia last year.) For those who’d question huge spending on linebackers, that’s fair. But Eberflus was an NFL linebackers coach for nine years before taking coordinator and then head-coach jobs, so it’s obvious these are two players he wanted and thinks can fit his defense.

 

Chicago got a starting guard, Nate Davis of Tennessee, and a solid complement to Cole Kmet at tight end in Green Bay’s Robert Tonyan. In the span of two weeks, Poles radically bolstered the offense around Justin Fields while keeping two first-round picks in the bank for next year, if he needs to think about moving on from Fields—which he doubts he’ll have to do. Now, with the ninth overall pick and four picks in the top 64, Poles can upgrade the roster at pass-rush and offensive line, to start.

 

Poles and the Bears, to this point, have won March. But winning in March is a bitter victory if losing in the next three years follows. So these three things are vital for the Bears in the next six weeks:

 

Win the ninth overall pick. Either trade down if you don’t love what’s there, or make the right choice in a tricky spot. The biggest X factor in this draft will be Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter, who possibly will fall to nine now after being the best overall prospect two months ago, then having a disastrous off-season. Poles has to figure out if Carter’s a legit hard-trying football guy or an irresponsible problem person, and whether he’s the kind of person and player he wants to bring in to a building franchise with character and ethos crucial elements to long-term success. I can’t emphasize how important this is. If Carter is there when Poles picks, he has the kind of decision to make that could define his term as Chicago GM.

 

It’ll be fascinating if Carter and one or both of the top two offensive tackles, Peter Skoronski and Paris Johnson, are there at nine. Both needs are major. Do you take the giant risk guy who is the best talent in the draft? Or do you take a solid prospect with perfect makeup at a need position to help protect your young quarterback in a vital developmental year?

 

Understand that all of this is about 2024 and beyond, not 2023. Don’t make decisions to win now. Make decisions to be the best team over the next five years.

DETROIT

Peter King on Detroit’s key cornerback signing, CB CAMERON SUTTON:

The signing of cornerback Cameron Sutton is interesting, and says so much about how deals in free agency get done. The Lions on Monday went hard after the former Pittsburgh corner, 28, and the deal got finalized somewhere around 2:30 that afternoon. Agent David Canter had told Sutton he hoped his contract would end up around $10 million a year. Sutton was one of the more highly regarded defensive players in free agency; last year, his 47-percent completion average on men he was covering was 10th in the NFL for corners who played more than 500 snaps.

 

For players in demand, Canter explained, “The rapidity of how it happens is shocking.” Agents are texting and phoning multiple teams on multiple players. The Lions were straightforward with Canter about wanting to get Sutton done, and when the three-year, $33-million deal with $22.5 million guaranteed (he’d made $23 million total in his six Pittsburgh seasons) was finalized, Canter told the Lions he’d call Sutton to get his okay on the deal. He told the Lions to hold.

 

“You’re gonna be a Detroit Lion in about three minutes,” Canter told Sutton, who was ready for anything. Canter said he didn’t have much time, but told him the basics of the deal: $22.5 million guaranteed, $33 milion total, with a signing bonus more than he’d made altogether in his last two years in Pittsburgh.

 

“Really?” Sutton said, getting emotional.

 

Canter said Saturday, “He just started crying. He told me, ‘This changes my life. Let’s go to Detroit, baby!’

 

GREEN BAY

Peter King tells the Packers they are asking too much for QB AARON RODGERS:

Green Bay. While we’re on the subject of Rodgers, two points about the Packers:

 

I think it’s silly to try to get a first-round pick off the Jets this year. New York picks 13th in the first round, and with no apparent guarantee that Rodgers, entering his age-40 season, will definitely play in 2024, the Jets would be foolish to give up a pick that could be used on the second- or third-best offensive lineman in the draft—to protect Rodgers. (If that’s how they choose to use the first-round pick.) The fairest deal: Jets trade a second-rounder this year (43rd overall) and a conditional pick in 2025, not 2024, based on whether Rodgers plays football for New York in 2024. If he plays 100 snaps or more in 2024, the Jets give Green Bay a first-round pick. If Rodgers plays less than that, the Jets give Green Bay a third-rounder. So if Rodgers plays two years for New York, the price is a first- and a second-; if he plays one year, the price is a second- and a third-. I totally see Green Bay’s point about playing hardball for Rodgers, but the 13th pick in the draft for a guy who might play one year? I don’t see it. Unless Rodgers flat-out guarantees the Jets he’s there for two years, minimum, I’m not considering paying the 2023 one for him.

 

Having covered Brett Favre from Green Bay to the Jets 15 years ago, I find this one part of the comparable stories to be eerily similar. Green Bay GM Ted Thompson wanted an all-in Favre in March 2008, Favre wasn’t willing to commit to being an off-season warrior, and retired before coming back in a trade to the Jets. I think when this story is finished, we’ll see that Green Bay GM Brian Gutekunst wanted an all-in Rodgers in March 2023 and knew he wouldn’t get it. More evidence for that got piled on the other day when Rodgers told Pat McAfee he was 90-percent retired when he went into his recent darkness retreat. So just like the late Thompson turned to the unproven fourth-year former first-rounder, Rodgers, to step in for Favre, now Gutekunst turns to the unproven fourth-year former first-rounder, Jordan Love, to replace Rodgers.

But Andrew Brandt, writing at SI.com, says the Packers have all the leverage to wait out the Jets:

As noted here many times before, including the night Jordan Love was drafted, the Packers’ transition away from Aaron Rodgers has stark parallels to the team’s transition away from Brett Favre 15 years ago. In both cases, a first-round quarterback apprenticed behind a Hall of Fame quarterback for three long years before Green Bay decided to hand the keys to the franchise over to the younger player and trade the older player to the Jets. Now, of course, Love is in the role Rodgers played 15 years ago, while Rodgers is in Favre’s role.

 

Although they were and are completely different people (I can vouch for this from my time working for the Packers), Rodgers and Favre “retired” from the Packers in a very similar ways. Neither was feeling the love from the current Green Bay front office as much as they had from a previous one. Favre missed the stewardship of Ron Wolf; Rodgers missed that of Ted Thompson. Both quarterbacks took special care to thank the “backroom” of the organization who have worked there forever (training and equipment staff, security, etc.). And again, both had their replacements drafted three years before leaving the team, all the while playing at a high level. The parallels are uncanny.

 

Before the pending trade to the Jets, Rodgers’s comments last week confirmed what had been predicted for months, even if it has not sunk in completely for the vast Packer Nation: This is the end of Rodgers’s time in Green Bay. One of the greatest—if not the greatest—players in franchise history is moving on. In the simplest terms: It is time.

 

I can relate, having left the Packers myself after almost 10 years. It was both time for me to move on and time for the team to move on from me. I had negotiated all the player contracts there were to negotiate and done all the cap management I needed in a lifetime. There was not much of a learning curve or growth cycle left there. And also for me, I saw life as much bigger than working for a team—been there, done that. Working in the NFL was a chapter of my life, not a life. But, like Favre and Rodgers, I cherish my time in Green Bay with fond memories of the staff and people there.

 

And I have, as everyone knows, remained a loyal and biased Packers fan. The news about Rodgers is sad. Green Bay is losing an icon. Packers fans will now have to experience the NFL the same way all other fans have: without consistently having a franchise quarterback for three decades.

 

Rodgers has made virtually every game interesting. He still possesses a true mastery at the position. He continues to make some of the most amazing throws ever on a football field, and no one who has ever played toys with opponents on offside and 12-men-on-the-field penalties like he does. The Rodgers era has been a wonderful one for Packers fans, and I speak for millions who will miss him.

 

Leverage in the pending trade

With the apparent inevitability that Rodgers will be traded to the Jets, there has been a bit of debate as to whether the Packers or the Jets have the upper hand in their ongoing, yet apparently stalled, trade negotiations. There are differing opinions, but I base mine off what I have learned through experience (and now teach) regarding the concept of leverage. Here is my definition of where it rests: Leverage lies with the negotiating party that is most satisfied with the status quo. Thus, let’s examine which team that is in this case.

 

The Jets desperately need a quarterback. New York has waited out this trade as all the other options—Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield—signed elsewhere. The Packers have had their quarterback in the building for three years.

 

The Jets flew their owner, head coach, general manager and assistant coach out to California to beg Rodgers to be their next quarterback.

 

The Jets just signed Rodgers’s preferred receiver, Allen Lazard, who at his press conference said that he looked forward to playing with Rodgers (despite the quarterback being, at the moment, a Packer). The Jets have stoked the fires of their fan base with Rodgers’s pending trade.

 

The Packers have no cap or cash issues with Rodgers’s contract. There is no money due to him until September. Indeed, it will cost them more in cap space ($40 million) with him off of the roster than on it ($31 million).

 

Based on the above, it certainly appears the Packers have the leverage in this negotiation.

 

I have not heard any realistic arguments about the Jets’ leverage. I’ve heard theories that Rodgers could show up to the Packers’ offseason workouts or even training camp. (Please.) Or that Rodgers could retire and Green Bay would get nothing. (The Packers would love for him to retire having played for only them, while also relieving them of $60 million he’d be due.) Or that he would sit on the roster all season so that the Packers would have to pay him. (Again, please.)

 

The problem with Rodgers’s contract, especially for the Jets, is that there is no decision point early in the offseason, no big roster bonus or anything like that. Thus the Packers can wait. I am not talking about waiting for months—this will be resolved long before it gets to the point of Rodgers’s showing up at Packers camp. If it were to get to that point, there is not enough blood pressure medication out there to sustain Jets fans.

 

Having said all of this, the one thing the Jets have going for them is they are the only suitor for Rodgers. But even with that, the Packers have no urgency to move him. None. The Jets are not going away, despite what anyone may think.

 

So what is holding up the trade? There could be lots of things, such as which players besides Rodgers are part of it, but I mainly believe it’s about 2023 draft compensation. This is the first half of what the trade compensation will look like and, in my opinion, is much harder to resolve than the second half. As to the second half of the trade, that could be one ’24 draft pick that stair-steps rounds (from, say, fourth to third to second to even first) depending on Rodgers’s performance—playing time, reaching the playoffs, statistical categories—in ’23. The ’24 draft is the easy part; the hard part is what the Jets give up in ’23.

 

Finances are always a concern, as are Rodgers’s intentions on playing past this year, if that has been discussed. Perhaps the Jets want the Packers to pay off some of the $60 million due to Rodgers this year, something that would warrant a higher draft pick. Perhaps the Packers want more compensation in 2025 if Rodgers plays in ’24. A lot could be going on, but it is clear both sides are digging in their heels on this trade.

 

I am not saying this will go on for a month, or that the Packers will extract multiple first-round picks. But the Packers are clearly not taking what the Jets are offering now, and Green Bay’s leveraging power means it will get more than that from New York at some point.

 

Because, at the end of the day, here is the bottom line on this trade: Can you imagine Jets GM Joe Douglas saying to his owner, coach, offensive coordinator, Lazard and fan base, Sorry, the Packers wanted too much. We’re going to pass on Rodgers.

 

Neither can I.

NFC SOUTH

 

CAROLINA

Coach Frank Reich with comments on who the Panthers might draft with their first overall pick.  Anthony Rizzuti of USA TODAY:

If Bryce Young was about four inches taller, we may not be having a debate as to who the Carolina Panthers would be picking atop the 2023 NFL draft. But, he’s not—so here we are.

 

On Monday, head coach Frank Reich held his first press conference since the team acquired this spring’s No. 1 overall pick. And when asked how much Young’s 5-foot-10 frame factors into his evaluation, he said it’s about more than just size.

 

“We’re, first and foremost, just looking for playmakers,” Reich stated. “You look at everything. Every trait that a guy has, and you weigh it. Right? You weigh it. The thing is—if there’s 10 categories that you look at in a quarterback, or any player for that matter, the real question is not how to evaluate each of those categories. A big part of the question is how much are you gonna weigh each of those categories.

 

“So, everything’s a factor. But, ultimately, it really comes down to being a playmaker. Being a guy who can make plays all over the field and that happens a lot of different ways.”

 

So, uh, how much will that frame weigh in? Reich was reluctant to reveal any such details.

 

“Yeah, I mean, that would be like giving away the propriety formula for Kentucky Fried Chicken,” he replied with a laugh.

 

Reich was also reminded of general manager Scott Fitterer’s past in Seattle with quarterback Russell Wilson, who measured in at 5-foot-11 for his combine visit back in 2021. He then proceeded to clear up a few misconceptions about himself.

 

“It’s like everybody says—everything matters,” he said. “All those conversations matter, especially when it’s Scott Fitterer. It’s the GM. And he’s talking about a guy like Russell Wilson . . . who, by the way, I had a very high grade on.

 

“You don’t have to read anything into that. But I don’t mind telling you I had a high grade on Russell Wilson. But don’t read anything into it, I’m just sayin’ that. ‘Cause all these people puttin’ this label on me that I only work with big quarterbacks. Don’t read anything into that.”

 

You heard the colonel—don’t read into that.

AFC WEST

 

DENVER

Sean Payton saw something he liked in QB JARRETT STIDHAM:

The most fascinating signing of the first week: quarterback Jarrett Stidham, two years, $10 million, $5 million guaranteed … after starting a grand total of two games in his four-year NFL life. But one of those games convinced Sean Payton to take a chance on him. After Derek Carr was benched in Vegas in late December, Stidham, in his first NFL start and facing the best defense in football, San Francisco, put up 365 passing yards, three TD passes and 34 points. So now Payton buys him to be Russell Wilson’s backup, and nothing needs to be said to Wilson about it. If Wilson by midseason 2023 is having a similarly disastrous season to his first one in Denver, Payton won’t have to punt on the season. He’ll have an intriguing backup waiting in the wings. But Payton did not go hard after Stidham to put the pressure on Wilson. He considered his options at backup QB and thought he could play it safe for around the same money with an Andy Dalton type, or swing for the fences on a young prospect with significant upside. I like the logic.

 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

RB AUSTIN EKELER continues to seek contractual justice.  Michael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com:

The Chargers have given running back Austin Ekeler permission to seek a trade, and he’s making no secret that he wants some team to pay him what he thinks he’s worth.

 

Ekeler said on Chris Long’s Greenlight podcast that he has nothing against anyone with the Chargers, but he wouldn’t want to stay there unless he’s going to get paid what he thinks he’s worth, and he’s not going to top seeking the contract he wants.

 

“I’m so underpaid right now as far as my contract and what I contribute to the team, I am relentlessly pursuing this,” Ekeler said. “I want to get something long-term done. I want a team that wants me long-term. I’m at the peak of my game, I’m going to score you another 20 touchdowns. As long as I’m healthy I’m going to score 20 touchdowns, I’m going to have 1,600 all-purpose yards. I’m getting half my value of what I can be getting. So I am relentlessly pursuing someone who wants me.”

 

So far, Ekeler has been the one doing the pursuing, and no team has been identified as eager to both give Ekeler the contract he wants and give the Chargers the trade compensation they want. Ekeler has one more year on his current contract and acknowledged that he’s obligated to play for the Chargers if nothing gets done, but he wants to get something done soon.

AFC SOUTH

 

INDIANAPOLIS

Currently positioned for the third-best QB in the draft, the Colts are pondering a run at QB LAMAR JACKSON.   Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

The team that secretly absconded from Baltimore nearly 39 years ago to the day could be, in theory, days a way from publicly trying to pilfer Baltimore’s current quarterback.

 

Stephen Holder of ESPN.com reports that the Colts haven’t ruled out a pursuit of Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.

 

Jackson is limited by the non-exclusive franchise tag, which the Ravens applied two weeks ago to the 2019 NFL MVP.

 

2019. That’s the year the Colts were thrown into a tailspin by the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck. The Colts still haven’t fully recovered.

 

Although a run at Jackson remain possible for the Colts, the team “has not taken any substantive steps regarding Jackson,” per Holder.  According to the report, “team sources have expressed skepticism” about an attempt to woo Jackson.

 

It’s a delicate situation. Jackson has wanted a fully-guaranteed contract. There are recent indications that maybe he doesn’t want every dollar to be fully-guaranteed at signing. If so, he still wants a significant amount to be fully-guaranteed at signing, possibly $200 million or more.

 

Then there’s the possibility that the Ravens will simply match the terms of whatever offer sheet the Colts may persuade Jackson to sign. Or, if the Ravens don’t match, the Colts would be surrendering the very valuable fourth overall selection in the draft.

 

Of course, the Colts could also wait until after the draft, giving up their 2024 and 2025 first-round picks if the Ravens don’t match. That strategy would likely make the Ravens more determined to match, however.

 

The situation has plenty of factors to consider. In the end, the Colts may prefer starting from scratch with a rookie who would become the team’s long-term franchise quarterback — like Peyton Manning was and like Luck was supposed to be.

 

But every rookie quarterback is unproven. Lamar has shown what he can do. Which is why any team without a short-list, top-five franchise quarterback should at least be thinking about it.

AFC EAST

 

MIAMI

The Dolphins exercise the fifth-year option on QB TUA TAGOVIALOA per Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:

Word earlier this month was that the Dolphins would be exercising their option on Tua Tagovailoa‘s contract for the 2024 season and it’s now official.

 

The Dolphins announced that they are exercising the fifth-year option on Tagovailoa’s rookie deal on Monday. The option comes with a $23.17 million salary that is fully guaranteed for next season upon execution.

 

The move strengthens Miami’s commitment to Tagovailoa for the next two seasons despite the concussion issues that caused him to miss significant time during the 2022 season. Tagovailoa threw for 3,548 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions while completing 64.8 percent of his passes when he was healthy and the Dolphins are banking on that kind of productivity with fewer injury issues in the future.

 

Mike White is on hand to step in at quarterback in the event Tagovailoa does get hurt, but the hope is that the Dolphins future features more of Tagovailoa than they got the last time around.

 

NEW ENGLAND

Chad Graff of The Athletic on Bill Belichick in the twilight of his career:

After the Patriots had loaded up multiple airport-bound buses following a road win over the Cleveland Browns in October, Bill Belichick had the team’s caravan stop at a statue of Jim Brown that sits outside FirstEnergy Stadium. He had his players disembark, check out the statue, snap some photos and take a minute to think about Brown and what he meant to the NFL.

 

Teams in professional sports almost never make pitstops on their exits from away games. The faster they can get home the better. But Belichick wanted to make sure his players didn’t leave Cleveland without some comprehension of Brown’s legacy. Belichick called him “the greatest player that ever played.”

 

Belichick is a football lifer who has spent 48 years in the NFL. He knows the league’s history and appreciates it as much as anyone. He watches games from the 1970s and ’80s during downtime and shows highlights from those days to current players.

 

And in recent years, the 70-year-old has started to think about his own place in NFL history. He has already accomplished just about everything one can in this game: six Super Bowls as a head coach, plus two more as an assistant.

 

So why, with his 71st birthday a few weeks away and a 25-25 record over the last three seasons, does Belichick still want to do it? Why does he continue with this exacting, pressure-packed job even though he is already considered by most to be the NFL’s greatest coach ever?

 

The most important things to him are history and legacy. And there’s one more record he doesn’t hold.

 

Interviews about Belichick with three people who used to work for him, all of whom were granted anonymity so that they could speak freely, paint a portrait of a man still highly motivated to succeed as he prepares for his 24th season at the Patriots’ helm. There’s still a desire to prove he can win without Tom Brady. There’s a passion for teaching and coaching that hasn’t subsided. There’s the goal of a seventh Super Bowl win, which would give New England more than any other franchise.

 

But among the reasons for continuing to coach, his former employees said, perhaps most significant is that Belichick wants to become the NFL’s all-time leader in career wins by a head coach. Belichick’s 329 all-time wins are 19 shy of surpassing Don Shula’s NFL record of 347, a mark that includes playoff victories.

 

It seems like a foregone conclusion that Belichick will get to the record. But how long will it take? What will happen if the team’s recent downturn — after such lofty success — continues and the quest becomes a several-year venture? Do the goodwill he has built with ownership and the team’s die-hard fan base mean Belichick has an unlimited runway to chase the record even if losing becomes the norm?

 

After Belichick passed George Halas in October to move into second place in all-time NFL coaching wins, he deferred discussion of his legacy for another time.

“I’ll be able to talk about that when it’s over,” Belichick said then. “Add them up at the end or whatever.”

 

That last part hinted at the last unchecked box for Belichick. He’s not alone in that thinking.

 

Shula coached until he was 66, retiring as a new ownership group — with its eyes fixed on Jimmy Johnson — sought to bring changes to his staff.

 

When he finally reflected on his legacy years later in an interview with The New York Times, Shula said: “You’ve got to look at the numbers. That’s pretty important. I coached 33 years (and) won the most games.”

 

Halas coached the Chicago Bears until he was 72, the oldest to ever lead an NFL team full-time. (Romeo Crennel was 73 when he served as the Houston Texans’ interim coach in 2020.)

Belichick hasn’t been forthcoming about his long-term plans or how much longer he wants to coach.

 

That’s why, when thinking about Belichick’s eventual retirement, much of it could come down to how quickly he overtakes Shula for the record.

 

In all likelihood, it will take two, maybe three more years. Despite going 8-9 last season and posting a sub-.500 record in two of the three years since Brady left, the Patriots are confident that 2023 will yield better results. They believe installing Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator will improve that side of the ball, that the defense will continue playing at a high level and that the special teams will get better since, well, it would be hard for them to do any worse than 2022. Combine all of that and the Patriots could be a 10-win team this fall.

My 10-step offseason plan to bring the Patriots from the fringe to Super Bowl contenders

 

At that point, Belichick probably would be one year away from the record — and a subsequent decision about his future.

 

But it’s worth exploring what happens if the Patriots are wrong. What if the injury bug hits, the offensive scheme change doesn’t work or quarterback Mac Jones doesn’t improve? What if the Patriots go 5-12?

 

That’s the worst-case scenario for the organization, not just because it would mean another lost season without a playoff win (the franchise has none since 2019), but because of the position into which the Kraft family could be thrust.

 

The Patriots ownership group, led by Robert Kraft, has always deferred to Belichick on football matters. After Belichick briefly benched Jones for Bailey Zappe last season, Jonathan Kraft told the team’s flagship radio station that Belichick had “earned the right to manage the team that way.”

 

But if the Patriots descend into a team that’s not competing for the playoffs, would the Krafts sit idly by, waiting for Belichick to reach the record? Would pressure be ramped up to a point where they’d feel obligated to intervene?

 

On one hand, it would be cruelly ironic if the Patriots fired Belichick, the coach who was always willing to cut players, no matter their stature or prominence. And if the Krafts are serious about doing whatever it takes to win — and every indication over the last 29 years is that they are — how could they stick with Belichick if his teams become no longer competitive?

 

On the other hand, how could they just cut ties with arguably the greatest football coach of all time, one who helped turn the Patriots into the most successful sports franchise in North America over the last two decades?

 

Of course, the most likely outcome is that the Patriots’ short-term success doesn’t fall off in a drastic way. Belichick has never won fewer than seven games in a season since a five-win debut performance in New England in 2000. There are plenty of reasons to believe last season’s issues were the result of a poorly constructed offensive coaching staff, and that seems to be resolved with the hiring of O’Brien.

 

The Patriots could again be a team aiming for eight to 10 wins and fighting for a wild-card spot. If that’s their trajectory, Belichick would probably get his record in late 2024 or early 2025. After that, perhaps he’d retire to Nantucket.

 

Robert Kraft badly wants to win again. He’s 81 and still investing much of his time and money into the team. The Patriots are wrapping up a $225 million renovation of Gillette Stadium and the team’s headquarters this summer.

 

One day, surely, there will be a statue of Belichick — much like Jim Brown’s — outside the stadium. It’ll list his accomplishments: six Super Bowl wins, nine AFC titles, 17 division championships. And, if all goes according to plan, the most wins of any head coach.

 

NEW YORK JETS

Peter King thinks the NFL will go gaga for the Jets and their schedule in 2023:

So they’ll get their quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, eventually. What does that mean for their 2023 schedule? A lot. I mean, a lot.

 

In 2022, the Jets played one game in prime time, a Thursday-nighter against Jacksonville. (The league mandates every team play one nationally televised game, minimum, per year.) Their remaining 16 games were all early-Sunday-window starts. This year, I expect the Rodgers-led Jets to get a full complement of prime-time games—five of them. If you love the Jets and are used to settling in at 1 o’clock Sunday to watch them, those days are over. In 2023, anyway.

 

Let’s mull over what the league might do when the schedule is announced in May. All of what I’m about to write is educated conjecture because of my years following the scheduling process. The schedule reveal is still seven-plus weeks away.

 

I’d bet the Jets will appear in either the Sunday or Monday prime-time opener. The league loves Aaron Rodgers. The league will try to capitalize on the fascination of Rodgers changing teams to have a ratings bonanza in week one. My money’s on NBC getting, say, Jets-Eagles or Jets-Bills on the opening Sunday night. Last Jets game on Sunday night on NBC: 2011. But the amazing part of that factoid is the Jets played a Sunday night game on NBC in three of the first 10 weeks of 2011 … and never in the 11 seasons then.

 

But wait. What about Jets-Cowboys? Wouldn’t that be a ratings rager? Of course it would be, and the league could do that. But often the NFL figures that games on opening weekend will get big numbers, and Rodgers versus the Cowboys will be one of the five biggest draws of the season, so the league could make it an October or November megagame somewhere. The league also has to be concerned about CBS and FOX on opening weekend, because the schedule will include doubleheader games on both networks that weekend. So maybe Dallas in the FOX doubleheader window, and maybe Joe Burrow or Josh Allen in the CBS slot. Again, just spitballing.

 

Re: national TV games: The Jets had one last year. I bet they have 11 or 12 this year—between a Thursday-nighter, maybe two on Sunday night, one or two on Monday night, maybe five Sunday late-window doubleheader games, and one of the newish late-season games moved to ESPN on a Saturday.

 

Amazon could provide an interesting Jets alternative this year. For the first time ever, the league has scheduled a 3 p.m. Black Friday game on Nov. 24, the day after Thanksgiving. Might Amazon, likely to get one Jets appearance this year, push for the Jets to host a game in the cradle of capitalism, on the busiest shopping day of the year? My guess is Amazon probably would want to sign up for more of a sure thing for this precedent-setting game, maybe the Eagles playing at home with a guaranteed rocking crowd.

 

In any case, one byproduct of New York employing Aaron Rodgers this year would be the Jets becoming a national team. For 2023 anyway.

 

THIS AND THAT

 

2023 DRAFT

Chris Simms ranks the QBs in this class – he likes QB C.J. STROUD better than he did QB JOE BURROW coming out:

NBC Sports’ Chris Simms discusses this year’s top QB prospects heading into the 2023 NFL Draft and unveiled his quarterback draft rankings on the Chris Simms Unbuttoned podcast, listing Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud No. 1. In the episode, Simms ranks and breaks down Stroud, Alabama’s Bryce Young, Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, Florida’s Anthony Richardson, UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Kentucky’s Will Levis.

 

Simms, a third-round pick of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2003 NFL Draft who played eight NFL seasons, is joined by NBC Sports’ Ahmed Fareed on the podcast. The two offer in-depth breakdowns, rankings, and NFL comparisons for this year’s top quarterback prospects.

 

“It’s an interesting class,” Simms said of this year’s quarterback prospects. “It’s a good class. I will say that, overall, it is a better class than last year, and I think that there’s a little bit of everything in the class, too, as far as flavors and styles of play… I think there’s less questions overall about these top guys than what we had last year.”

 

Fareed to Simms on his rankings: “This is all about the tape. This is film rankings. So, you didn’t have a guy No. 1 that you kind of thought from a year ago and now you’re trying to defend that No. 1 ranking and it’s hard to get off of it. You didn’t rank these guys until basically a week ago, so now you’ve looked at the film and this is what your rankings are based off of.”

 

Simms has had recent success in projecting college quarterbacks – including naming Patrick Mahomes as his most exciting prospect in 2017, listing Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen as his top-two QBs in 2018, and having Justin Herbert as his No. 2 QB in 2020.

 

In the lead up to April’s NFL Draft, Simms will rank and break down every position group, provide a list of sleeper prospects, and issue a final mock draft.

 

The following are highlights from Simms’ QB draft rankings:

 

No. 1: C.J. Stroud, Ohio State

“I am beyond blown away from what I saw…this is as close to Joe Burrow as I’ve seen coming out in the draft. When you just talk about great decision-making, quickness, I mean that was Joe Burrow…C.J. Stroud’s ability to make high-level throws and just drop the ball in the receiver’s pockets, hit them in the chest, wherever, is off-the-charts good…He’s a pure pocket passing quarterback, but that’s not to say he can’t move and be mobile too…When you really break him down, his incompletions are off-the-charts good …Decision-making, top-notch. The ability to make power, game-changing type throws, top-notch. And then go on to accuracy with the short game, it’s all off the charts. But what separates him is the amount of 15- to 30-yard throws that are on the money that change field position or the game on a consistent basis. Like I said, Joe Burrow is the only guy I can remember where I just kept going, ‘Whoa, another strike. Whoa, another strike.’ … This is not one where I’m going out on a limb and I’m splitting hairs. For (me), definite No. 1 pick.”

 

No. 2: Bryce Young, Alabama

“The natural, that’s what he is. He’s as natural at playing the position as you’re going to see. He makes so many great quarterback plays. Just like C.J. Stroud, the brain is on another level. The ability to read defenses, see the field, throw the appropriate throw…For a guy that’s a college quarterback, he’s as slick as you’re going to see. What I mean by that, you might not see a ton of wow, oh my gosh throws from Bryce Young, but you see a lot of wow, oh my gosh releases and stuff like that…His ability to throw slants and screens, he can be like (Patrick) Mahomes where he can just flick it out or Aaron Rodgers where you’re just like, ‘Woah, was that out quick.’ The ability to move in the pocket and buy time, bounce around, make people miss, and then have this incredible patience…There’s really so many good things to talk about. He’s a very good athlete, he’s a great decision-maker, he’s aggressive – but not as aggressive as C.J. Stroud – and he can make some wow, highlight-type plays. But he’s No. 2 because of his size and his arm is good but it’s not on the same level as C.J. Stroud.”

 

No. 3: Hendon Hooker, Tennessee

“Why is this guy not getting more buzz? What is there not to like? … All I know is I saw a really good-looking, on the money, pocket passing quarterback who makes great decisions, and like C.J. Stroud, is way more athletic than people are giving him credit for. And where he might be even better than C.J. Stroud, and definitely better than Bryce Young, is his ability to see over the line and throw over the line…Totally unaffected by the pass rush. That’s where I give him tons of credit. Decision-making, that’s another one where I go it’s really off-the-charts good. The amount of NFL, high-level throws. I just mean in the pocket, 12-yard out route. In the pocket, trash around you, 15-yard in-cut…he does all of that. That’s where I loved Hendon Hooker. His motion is not my favorite. He’s a natural thrower of the football, but his motion is a little too vertical…There’s the ACL and the age thing, that’s the concern with Hendon Hooker. If you’re going off film, I don’t know how he’s not in the top quarterback conversation.”

 

No. 4. Anthony Richardson, Florida

“He’s Micah Parsons playing quarterback. He’s a beast of beasts when it comes to the quarterback position. The only guy who we’ve seen somewhat built like this is Cam Newton…He’s one of one in that department. This is a quarterback who’s a great athlete who’s still just learning how to play quarterback. He’s less raw than Malik Willis last year. This guy’s arm is off-the-charts good. Is there a little boom or bust here? Of course. His ceiling is probably the highest in the draft. His floor, though, it might be the lowest…You’re not going to want to rely on him like you would Hendon Hooker or Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud…He needs to be taught a few things in how to use his body the right way in throwing the football… The quarterback-designed run game is going to be a real thing with him…From what I’ve seen, he’s a natural thrower.”

 

No. 5. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA

“What’s not to like about DTR? He’s taller than Bryce Young, he’s faster than Bryce Young, and I think his arm might be stronger than Bryce Young. He plays the position of quarterback right up there with the top guys. He can do everything. He has a little bit of a long wind-up. Maybe he doesn’t see the field as well as C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young. He plays smaller than 6’2”. But after that, I don’t know what else to say. I would argue that going through reads and reading the field, other than Stroud and Young, he’s the next best one in the group…His mechanics are great, his feet are great…This kid’s got starting NFL quarterback traits. I don’t understand why the guy isn’t getting more hype.”

 

No. 5. Will Levis, Kentucky

“He’s got a little bit of the boom or bust factor here. His size and toughness are off the charts. He is a good athlete. You take his 10 best throws, they’re up there with anybody. He can throw in lasers like C.J. Stroud or Richardson. The problem is, it’s too few and far between. His decision-making is towards the bottom of the list, too…He’s too flicky, the motion is a little all over the place…The ability to play and get it done is not as good as those top guys in that department. His potential is greater than (Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s)…His ceiling is high…Would I be shocked if he’s a starting NFL quarterback in three years? I would not be…The power isn’t the problem, but he can be a little all over the place with his location of the ball. He feels a little ‘all potential’-based.”

– – –

Mel Kiper, Jr. of ESPN.com offers up a Mock Draft that takes the developments of free agency into account:

I’m back with a third mock ahead of the 2023 NFL draft, filling needs for every first-round pick after the bulk of free agency. There are still several good free agents available, but the marquee players have been signed, and we have a great idea of positions each team could be targeting in this draft. This is one of my favorite mocks to do every year.

 

Since my last round of predictions, a lot has happened, including the NFL combine. Check out the 10 prospects I picked as risers from the workouts in Indianapolis. There also has been a trade — a big one. The Bears got a tremendous haul from the Panthers for the No. 1 overall pick, dropping down eight spots in the process. I have a lot to say about the deal below.

 

These new predictions feature another projected trade in the top five, as we could see a few different teams trying to get in there to take a quarterback. I also have an update to my Big Board rankings, with post-combine changes at every position. Now that we have the accurate size measurements and testing numbers, we’re getting into the homestretch ahead of Round 1, which begins April 27, with only pro days and in-person visits for teams ahead.

 

OK, let’s get to it. There are just 31 picks here, if you’ll recall, because the Dolphins were stripped of their first-rounder. Check out the “SportsCenter Special: Mel Kiper’s NFL Mock Draft 3.0” at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN2, with Todd McShay agreeing with me about why all of my picks were perfect. Here we go, starting with Carolina:

 

1. Carolina Panthers (via CHI)

C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Welcome to the top of the board, Carolina. The Panthers went big right before free agency, sending a bevy of picks and wide receiver DJ Moore to Chicago for the No. 1 selection. It’s a lot to give up, but the trade gives the Panthers their choice of quarterbacks in this class, which they’re still working through. If they hit on that passer, they could have a 15-year starter. If they miss? Well, general manager Scott Fitterer and coach Frank Reich likely won’t be around to see the end of their pick’s tenure. It’s a monumental decision for a team that has missed on recent deals for Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. Which way will Carolina go now?

 

I’m leaning toward Stroud based on what I’m hearing. He’s super accurate, has impressed everyone throughout the pre-draft process and is the ideal size profile of recent Frank Reich quarterbacks. He has the slight edge over Bryce Young based on fit. Carolina added veteran Andy Dalton to guide the rookie, but whoever this quarterback ends up being needs more playmakers around him. Without Moore, its No. 1 receiver now becomes Adam Thielen, who was signed to a deal this week. Laviska Shenault Jr., Terrace Marshall Jr. and running back Miles Sanders are on the roster, but this group is among the league’s worst. Thanks to the Christian McCaffrey trade, the Panthers had extra selections — they still have second- and third-rounders to add players — but this is not likely to be a team that challenges for a playoff spot in 2023.

 

2. Houston Texans

Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

I projected a Houston trade up to No. 1 in my previous mock draft, but it seems general manager Nick Caserio and new coach DeMeco Ryan are perfectly OK with staying put and taking a passer here. And really, they could still get their top-rated guy. Throughout the NFL, there is no consensus top quarterback in this class. Some teams like Stroud, some like Young and others have Will Levis (Kentucky) or Anthony Richardson (Florida) atop their boards. This is a fascinating draft, and we’re going to have to deal with subterfuge all the way up until April 27.

 

For the Texans, who are in the early stages of a roster reset, they have to get the face of their franchise. Young can be that guy. No, he doesn’t have ideal size, and at 5-foot-10, 204 pounds he’s going to become the third under-6-foot signal-caller drafted in Round 1. But turn on the tape and watch him maneuver the pocket, find passing lanes and drop dimes all over the field. He’s legit. Houston just traded wideout Brandin Cooks, so Young would have similar issues to Stroud in Carolina, but the Texans have another first-rounder (No. 12) to keep building up their roster.

 

 

Projected trade: Indy moves up

Arizona’s pick at No. 3 is going to be coveted. It might now be the most important pick in the draft. That’s because we know quarterbacks are going to Carolina and Houston at the top of the board, but the Cardinals aren’t in the market for a passer. How far are they willing to slide down so a QB-needy team can move up? This scenario might be best for them, because they have to move down only one spot and could still get their choice of the top defenders. Go any farther down, and they won’t be so lucky.

 

I mentioned last month the Mitch Trubisky trade from 2017, when the Bears moved from No. 3 to No. 2 in a deal with the 49ers. Chicago gave up the Nos. 3, 67 and 111 picks along with its third-rounder in the 2018 draft. That’s the comp for this move, though as we saw in Carolina’s trade up to No. 1, the asking price increases based on the competition. If Las Vegas or Seattle gets involved, Arizona could get much more. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Arizona takes this deal down to when it’s on the clock on April 27; that’s when trading teams will know for sure who’s still available.

 

Indianapolis, meanwhile, has to do something to get its franchise signal-caller. There’s no way general manager Chris Ballard likes all four top quarterbacks equally. The Colts might have to give up multiple picks to get their guy.

 

3. Indianapolis Colts (via mock trade with ARI)

Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Is it possible Ballard likes either Levis or Anthony Richardson as his top passer in this class? Yes, absolutely. In that case, this could be a win-win deal for both teams. The bottom line is the Colts have a solid roster, but they’re not going to win without better quarterback play. Barring a dramatic trade for Lamar Jackson — which would cost two first-round picks — they should move up to ensure they get Levis.

 

Levis, a 6-foot-4 QB with a huge arm who played in a pro-style offense at Kentucky, had an inconsistent 2022 season. He didn’t play with elite talent, though, and he forced too many throws at times. Indianapolis has the playmakers to help him out as a rookie. New coach Shane Steichen helped Jalen Hurts take a massive leap for the Eagles, and he should be excited to coach up another high-ceiling player.

 

4. Arizona Cardinals (via mock trade with IND)

Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama

Once again, no change here from my two previous mock drafts. Anderson is the type of player new coach Jonathan Gannon can build around on defense. He’s versatile, productive — 130 pressures over the past two seasons — and has the tools to develop into an All-Pro. The problem for Arizona is who plays next to Anderson. J.J. Watt retired, tackle Zach Allen left in free agency and the Cardinals haven’t added any D-linemen over the past week. For a defense that struggled with consistency last season, there are still issues here.

 

This trade down likely would give Arizona the Colts’ second- and third-rounders (Nos. 35 and 79) at the very least, giving it a bunch of capital to make upgrades. Now, new general manager Monti Ossenfort has to use that capital wisely — and hope quarterback Kyler Murray is ready for Week 1.

 

5. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN)

Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

The finer details of Geno Smith’s new contract show it’s really only a one-year commitment; Seattle absolutely could take a quarterback here. Think of Alex Smith and Joe Flacco when the Chiefs and Ravens, respectively, drafted Patrick Mahomes (2017) and Lamar Jackson (2018) and essentially used the veterans as one-year bridges to the rookies. Then again, I thought the Seahawks might take a quarterback last year, and coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider decided against it, instead turning their picks into the NFL’s best rookie class.

 

So why Richardson? The upside is so, so high. He’s a 6-foot-4, 244-pound signal-caller who can make any throw and who also ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash at the combine. If he’s given time to catch up to the speed of the NFL, he could be a star. This would be a great situation for him, on an offense that has young stars. Plus, the Seahawks have another Round 1 pick at No. 20 — if any team is in a spot to take a high-risk player, it’s them. By the way, four quarterbacks going in the top five picks has never happened before.

 

6. Detroit Lions (via LAR)

Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

Detroit added veteran corners Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley and versatile defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson in free agency, which likely signals it’s going to pass on the top corners with this pick. But did you watch this defense last season? It ranked bottom of the league in most statistical categories, including yards per play allowed (6.2). The Lions have to keep trying to fix it.

 

The easiest way to do that? Take Carter, who has had a troubled few months. Last week, he pleaded no contest to misdemeanor charges of reckless driving and racing for his alleged role in a Jan. 15 car wreck that killed Georgia offensive lineman Devin Willock and recruiting staffer Chandler LeCroy. He also showed up at his pro day nine pounds heavier than he was at the NFL combine, and he was unable to finish the position drills. He’s no longer in the mix to be the No. 1 overall pick. Everything I’ve heard from people in the league, however, is he won’t drop too far — he likely still will be a top-10 selection. Carter’s talent is undeniable, and I could see a team such as the Lions taking him here, filling a position of need.

 

Detroit, which also owns the No. 18 overall selection, drafted Aidan Hutchinson at No. 2 overall last year and got 9.5 sacks out of him. Carter would be a nice complement to Hutchinson’s skill set.

 

7. Las Vegas Raiders

Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

So, in this scenario, the Raiders don’t get any of the top four quarterbacks, forcing them to go with the best prospect available. They added the solid-but-unspectacular Jimmy Garoppolo in free agency, so it’s not like they have a void under center as big as the Colts, Texans and Panthers do. They also have a veteran roster, and you could argue they should try to win now.

 

The player who can most help them win in 2023 is Gonzalez, who ran a blazing 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the combine, backing up what I saw on his 2022 tape. At 6-foot-1, he has outstanding ball skills and elite recovery speed. This is a clear need area for Las Vegas.

 

8. Atlanta Falcons

Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

The Falcons have been one of the biggest spenders of free agency, doling out deals to safety Jessie Bates and defensive tackle David Onyemata and re-signing offensive tackle Kaleb McGary and edge rusher Lorenzo Carter, among other moves. They also gave Chris Lindstrom a five-year extension, making him the NFL’s highest-paid guard, and traded for tight end Jonnu Smith, who thrived in Tennessee under now-Atlanta coach Arthur Smith. Those moves mean this pick could come down to edge rusher or cornerback, and the Falcons will have options.

 

I thought about Will McDonald IV (Iowa State) and Lukas Van Ness (Iowa), but Witherspoon’s ability in coverage might be tough to pass up for a defense that struggled last season. Atlanta could add a great corner to put on the other side of A.J. Terrell. Witherspoon didn’t work out at the combine because of a minor injury, so he’s going to run in front of NFL teams April 5. That’s going to be crucial so we can see if his testing numbers line up with his fantastic 2022 season, when he allowed 3.3 yards per attempt and zero touchdowns as the primary defender in coverage, according to ESPN’s game charting.

 

9. Chicago Bears (via CAR)

Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

As a reminder, here’s what Chicago got from Carolina for surrendering the No. 1 pick and dropping down eight spots:

 

Wide receiver DJ Moore

 

Picks Nos. 9 and 61 in April’s draft

 

Carolina’s first-round pick in 2024

 

Carolina’s second-round pick in 2025

 

That’s an incredible haul, and the 2024 pick might end up being the best of the bunch. While the Bears could be in play for a defensive lineman here — particularly if Jalen Carter drops — I see offensive tackle as their biggest hole after their moves in free agency. They added guard Nate Davis to start on the right side, but are they really trusting Teven Jenkins to lock in the right tackle job? They could have their choice of the class’ tackles here. Johnson played both tackle spots and right guard for the Buckeyes, and he already has blocked for quarterback Justin Fields. Chicago needs to keep supporting Fields and get him a stellar lineman with this pick, and it could still address the defense with its two second-round picks (Nos. 53 and 61) and early third-rounder (No. 64).

 

10. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO)

Peter Skoronski, OT/G, Northwestern

Center Jason Kelce will be back, but the Eagles just lost right guard Isaac Seumalo in free agency. Could they take the prospect some teams consider the best guard in the class? Skoronski excelled at left tackle for the Wildcats, but his arms are slightly shorter than average for tackles (32 1/4 inches), and so he could instead move inside. Philadelphia drafted interior lineman Cam Jurgens in Round 2 last year, so he’s the favorite to replace Seumalo, but taking Skoronski would ensure versatility and a competition. The Eagles haven’t shied away in previous years from trying to stack strength on strength in the draft.

 

I also thought about defensive line here, as Adetomiwa Adebawore (Northwestern) or Lukas Van Ness (Iowa) could fit next to 2022 first-rounder Jordan Davis. Fletcher Cox is back for one year, but Javon Hargrave left for a huge deal in San Francisco, so Philadelphia could address the position with its choice at No. 30 overall.

 

11. Tennessee Titans

Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

Tennessee has used free agency to bring in Andre Dillard to play left tackle and Daniel Brunskill to compete for one of the guard positions, which means offensive line is less of a need now. And with Johnson and Skoronski off the board in this scenario, the Titans don’t have to force a lineman here. That’s why I’m in favor of them going after a high-ceiling edge rusher.

 

Wilson, who is recovering from a broken foot that meant he couldn’t work out at the combine, has elite talent in a 6-foot-6, 271-pound frame. He had 14 sacks over the past two seasons for the Red Raiders, showing excellent burst off the line of scrimmage. For a Tennessee team that just cut Bud Dupree and ranked 27th in percentage of sacks per dropback (5.3%) last season, he’d be an ideal fit. I’m not as high on Wilson’s tape as other people in the league I trust — he’s too inconsistent — but his flashes of brilliance as a pass-rusher make him intriguing.

 

12. Houston Texans (via CLE)

Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia

Houston had a rough time on both sides of the ball last season. It ranked 32nd in yards per play on offense (4.8) and 26th in yards per play allowed on defense (5.7). With the Texans’ first pick, I projected them to take quarterback Bryce Young, so with this one I’m giving them a quarterback for their defense. People in the league rave about Smith’s leadership skills, and he was outstanding at the combine. I named him as one of my risers after he ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash at 238 pounds, and this is right in the range in which he could go.

 

Smith, who tore his right pectoral muscle in November and missed the rest of the season, could be a foundational player for coach DeMeco Ryans, who is going to mold this defense in his own image. This pick, by the way, comes from the Deshaun Watson trade, and the Texans also own the Browns’ first-rounder in 2024.

 

13. New York Jets

Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

Will the Jets actually keep this pick? They’re going to have to give up something to get quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and it might require a first-round selection. For now, they haven’t addressed the tackle position this offseason, and there are questions there. Mekhi Becton will return, but he has played just one game over the past two seasons. Duane Brown will be back, but he turns 38 in August. Max Mitchell started five games at right tackle last season, but he gave up three sacks and was just OK as a run-blocker. General manager Joe Douglas should keep investing in the position.

 

Jones started 19 games on the left side for the Bulldogs, and he didn’t allow a single sack last season. He’s still growing at the position, but he has major upside. He could compete with Mitchell at right tackle. Darnell Wright (Tennessee) and Anton Harrison (Oklahoma) are other tackles to watch.

 

14. New England Patriots

Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

After adding JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki in free agency, the Patriots no longer have to draft a receiver here. That doesn’t mean they won’t, just that it’s no longer a critical void. New offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien has a few playmakers to scheme open for quarterback Mac Jones, who struggled in 2022, finishing 28th in Total QBR (out of 31 qualifiers). This offense should take a step up.

 

The biggest need now is in the secondary. Jonathan Jones was re-signed and Jack Jones had a really solid rookie season, but the Patriots have to add more corners. Porter is a 6-foot-2 press cornerback whose 4.46-second 40-yard dash at the combine was stellar for his size. He didn’t allow any touchdowns in coverage last season. He’s physical — he’ll tackle in the run game. I see Porter as a player who could thrive for Bill Belichick’s defense.

 

I almost scratched out my prediction for this pick and slotted in wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State), who could be a target for a team in this range.

 

15. Green Bay Packers

Lukas Van Ness, DL, Iowa

Depending on what happens with a potential Aaron Rodgers trade, this could end up being Green Bay’s second pick of the top 15. That means the Packers could have two first-round choices in back-to-back years, as they got help on defense with Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt last April. And while I thought long and hard about a wide receiver or tight end here, this defense still has a ways to go.

 

Green Bay ranked 28th in both yards per play allowed (5.8) and yards per carry allowed (5.0) last season, and it tied for 27th in sacks (34). A sophomore leap from Wyatt and Rashan Gary’s return from a torn ACL in his right knee will be a boost, but a versatile player such as Van Ness would be a great addition. At 6-foot-5, 272 pounds, Van Ness has the flexibility to play tackle and end; he had 13.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks last season. Again, there’s a lot up in the air about the Packers, but teams always covet edge rushers.

 

16. Washington Commanders

Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State

Before free agency, Washington had a massive hole at right tackle, but now that spot is filled by former Chiefs lineman Andrew Wylie, who signed a three-year deal last week. I’m not going to rule out the possibility of a tackle here — left tackle Charles Leno Jr. is 31 and on a reasonable contract through 2024 — but let’s move on to another key area: cornerback.

 

I’m a huge fan of Forbes, who is rail thin but really fast. He ran a 4.35-second 40-yard dash at the combine but weighed in at 166 pounds, making him the lightest prospect at the position. He’s going to get bigger, of course, but some teams will be scared off by his size. The Commanders should capitalize; Forbes is a ball hawk who picked off 14 passes over the past three seasons — one of those was a pick-six off Will Levis — and could be an All-Pro player. He has gone up against some of college football’s best wideouts and consistently held his own.

 

17. Pittsburgh Steelers

Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

Cameron Sutton is out, veteran Patrick Peterson is in, but Pittsburgh’s biggest need hasn’t changed. It has to get younger — and faster — at cornerback. Banks matched Forbes’ 40-yard dash time (4.35) at the combine, and he did it 31 pounds heavier (though he measured 6-foot, two inches shorter than he was listed in college). His 2022 tape is one of the best I’ve seen in this class in terms of man coverage. He can shut down an entire side of the field. He’s a fit for Mike Tomlin’s defense.

 

18. Detroit Lions

Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

I got the Lions help along the defensive line at No. 6, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they double-dipped here with another pick on defense. That unit was that bad last season. Instead, let’s pivot to the other side of the ball. They traded away T.J. Hockenson last fall and used a committee approach to the tight end position, with Brock Wright, James Mitchell and Shane Zylstra each catching at least 11 passes. All three are under contract for 2023, but shouldn’t Detroit try to upgrade?

 

Mayer is the most complete tight end in this class. He’s physical as a run-blocker, and he can run seam routes and get open for quarterback Jared Goff. He caught 67 passes for 809 yards and nine touchdowns last season and had 180 catches in his college career. He could be the lead guy in Detroit.

 

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

Is Tampa Bay rebuilding now that Tom Brady is gone? Its moves don’t suggest so, particularly in bringing back veteran linebacker Lavonte David. And with Baker Mayfield set to battle Kyle Trask for the starting quarterback job, maybe the Bucs believe they can win the NFC South again. If that’s the case, they need an instant starter at right tackle. Tristan Wirfs is moving over to the left side, so there’s a void. The 6-foot-5, 333-pound Wright started 42 games in college, including 27 at right tackle. This would be a move to get new offensive coordinator Dave Canales off to the best start, no matter the quarterback.

 

If the Bucs really want to get wild, they could take running back Bijan Robinson here. I’ve had trouble finding the perfect landing spot for him, though I do think he’ll go in Round 1.

 

20. Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

This was a tough pick for me. It could be a front-seven player; Seattle ranked 27th in yards per carry allowed (4.9) last season, though it added free agent tackle Dre’Mont Jones to help. Edge rushers Will McDonald IV (Iowa State) and Myles Murphy (Clemson) could make sense. I also thought about interior offensive line, but it might be a little too high for guard O’Cyrus Torrence (Florida). So if I’m getting the Seahawks a project quarterback at No. 5, why not add a wideout who could make things easier on offense?

 

Smith-Njigba has a chance to develop into a true No. 1 receiver. He didn’t run the 40-yard dash at the combine, but he looked effortless in the pass-catching drills and led all receivers with a 6.57-second 3-cone time and a 3.93-second short shuttle. A hamstring injury limited him to just five catches last season, but he caught 95 passes for 1,606 yards in 2021. He could be a plug-and-play starter for a team that already features Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. He could alternate reps outside and in the slot.

 

21. Los Angeles Chargers

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

I had been targeting receivers for the Chargers, but let’s give them a player who could help in both the pass and run games. Kincaid, who had 106 catches and 16 touchdowns over the past two seasons, is the best “move” tight end in this class. He’s a legit playmaker in the pass game. At 6-foot-4, 246 pounds, he could do damage out of the slot or lined up next to a tackle. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore could scheme up easy targets to Kincaid for quarterback Justin Herbert.

 

As I’ve mentioned before, the Chargers’ run defense still is an issue, but they could get help there on Day 2.

 

22. Baltimore Ravens

Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

Well, I had hoped to have some more clarity about quarterback Lamar Jackson’s future by the time I did these predictions, but I’m just going to assume he’ll be back in 2023, playing on the franchise tag. And if that’s the case, can general manager Eric DeCosta get him some receiving help? A top three wideout group of Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay and James Proche isn’t good enough.

 

The dynamic Flowers is a favorite of mine in this class. While some in the NFL see him strictly as a slot receiver, he actually had five touchdowns when lined up outside last season (and seven from the slot). Though he’s only 5-foot-9, he could be used everywhere. He forced 25 missed tackles last season, third most in the country for a wideout. He could thrive with Jackson in Baltimore, especially with new coordinator Todd Monken opening up the offense.

 

23. Minnesota Vikings

Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

I’m switching gears a bit for the Vikings, as I had projected a cornerback here in my first two mock drafts. They could still go that way, as adding Byron Murphy helps fill their immediate hole. At receiver, though, with Adam Thielen gone, I love the idea of Johnston playing on the other side of Justin Jefferson, helping take defensive backs away. The 6-foot-3 Johnston will be an immediate red zone threat in the NFL, and his skills after the catch mean he will break a bunch of tackles and score long touchdowns. I know K.J. Osborn has earned a bigger role in the Minnesota offense, but there’s room for Johnston too.

 

24. Jacksonville Jaguars

Will McDonald IV, DE, Iowa State

After years of spending big money in free agency, the Jaguars have largely stayed out of the fray this year — they have stuck to re-signings so far. This young roster is going to grow and improve together, and that’s a good thing for Jacksonville fans. There aren’t many obvious holes on this depth chart, but the loss of Arden Key in free agency means there are edge-rushing snaps to be had. Enter McDonald, who had a really strong Senior Bowl and showed off great physical attributes at the combine.

 

At 6-foot-4, 239 pounds, McDonald and Key are actually very similar in size, and both are best when coordinators let them get after quarterbacks. McDonald is an explosive player who had 34 sacks over four college seasons. I expect Travon Walker, the No. 1 overall pick last year, to make a second-season leap — the Jags’ defense could get much better.

 

25. New York Giants

Jordan Addison, WR, USC

Quarterback Daniel Jones is back on a four-year deal, and the Giants’ front office has prioritized playmakers around him. New York has given the franchise tag to running back Saquon Barkley, re-signed wideouts Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard, traded for tight end Darren Waller and added receiver Parris Campbell on a one-year deal. That’s an upgraded depth chart, which also includes promising 2022 second-rounder Wan’Dale Robinson. How about one more?

 

Addison put up huge numbers for Pitt and USC over the past three seasons, and he could be a plug-and-play starter, getting reps in the slot and outside. This is how the Giants’ passing offense can take a big step forward.

 

26. Dallas Cowboys

Adetomiwa Adebawore, DE, Northwestern

You might remember Adebawore from his performance at the NFL combine, where he ran a 4.49-second 40-yard dash at 282 pounds, putting up the fastest time of any player over 280 pounds at the combine since at least 2006, according to ESPN Stats & Information. I wrote at the time that he was going to rise, and he’s likely going in Round 1 now. He wasn’t super productive in college — 9.5 sacks since 2021 — but his talent is undeniable. Adebawore played about 75% of his snaps at defensive end, but he could move inside at the next level and work as a 3-technique tackle.

 

For the Cowboys, we know defensive coordinator Dan Quinn values versatility, and Adebawore could get reps all over the line. DeMarcus Lawrence turns 31 this offseason, and they need to keep adding young players to their rotation.

 

27. Buffalo Bills

Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

I keep coming back to Robinson being perfect for this Bills offense. He could be a security blanket for Josh Allen in the pass game, and he can rip off chunk plays as a ball carrier. He breaks a ton of tackles and has tremendous vision. He’s the most complete back in this class. As I’ve written before, Robinson is a top-10 prospect on my board, but his positional value means he’s going to drop into the 20s. I know Buffalo has James Cook and just added Damien Harris on a one-year deal, but Robinson is on another level. This is a team that can afford to target a luxury position in Round 1.

 

28. Cincinnati Bengals

Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia

This makes seven pass-catchers (four receivers, three tight ends) in a nine-pick span. There absolutely could be a run on them in the 20s. The tight end group as a whole is spectacular at the top, but Washington might have the highest ceiling. He wasn’t used a ton in the pass game for the Bulldogs, as he had just 45 catches and three scores over three seasons. At 6-foot-7, 264 pounds, he ran a 4.64-second 40-yard dash at the combine, impressing NFL scouts, who think he could be much better at the next level. With Hayden Hurst gone in free agency, this is a clear need area for Cincinnati.

 

29. New Orleans Saints (via DEN/MIA/SF)

Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson

New Orleans, back in Round 1 after Denver gave up this pick in the deal for coach Sean Payton, is in an interesting spot. It just added quarterback Derek Carr, and it has a talented, veteran roster — with a few holes. It has tried to plug a few of those holes, notably by turning over the defensive tackle position, adding Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shepherd in free agency. Those two defenders have never played full-time roles, however, so the Saints should add another tackle if Bresee is available. Bresee had a fantastic workout at the combine, making my risers list. He could see the field early and often for this team.

 

30. Philadelphia Eagles

Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt

I still see Kancey as the ideal choice here, slotting in next to 2022 first-rounder Jordan Davis for years to come and solidifying the Philadelphia defensive line. General manager Howie Roseman and the Eagles, who have two first-rounders thanks to a deal with with New Orleans last year, believe in investing heavily in the defensive line, so this is a pick to continue the trend.

 

Kancey had an elite workout at the combine, though he’s not going to be perfect for every team. At 6-foot-1, 281 pounds, he needs to go to a team that plays a 4-3 and allows him to penetrate past interior linemen and create chaos at the snap. Keep an eye on safety for this pick, as C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps are both gone.

 

31. Kansas City Chiefs

Felix Anudike-Uzomah, DE, Kansas State

The Chiefs let JuJu Smith-Schuster leave in free agency, and their wide receiver depth chart looks a little thin. I thought about Jalin Hyatt (Tennessee) as a new deep threat for Patrick Mahomes, but I’m going to trust in Andy Reid’s ability to find contributors just about anywhere. That leads me to the edge rushers, and Anudike-Uzomah is a player I really wanted to get in these predictions somewhere.

 

There’s some buzz among NFL teams about Anudike-Uzomah after the combine. He had a great workout there, and he was super productive in college, racking up 19.5 sacks over the past two seasons. Kansas City replaced Frank Clark with Charles Omenihu, so Anudike-Uzomah likely would be a situational pass-rusher as a rookie.