The Daily Briefing Tuesday, March 29, 2022

Each team is now guaranteed the ball in postseason overtime.  Kevin Seifert ofESPN.com:

NFL owners approved a modified proposal for overtime Tuesday that will guarantee each team a possession, but only in the postseason.

The rule for regular-season games, which allows the team with the first possession to win if it scores a touchdown, will remain unchanged.

A majority of NFL decision-makers arrived at The Breakers hotel this week willing to adjust overtime in some fashion, largely in reaction to public outcry after the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Buffalo Bills in overtime during the divisional playoff round with an opening-possession touchdown.

The Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles proposed a mandatory possession for both teams in all games, regular season and in the playoffs, but competition committee chairman Rich McKay said there was not enough support among owners to pass the rule unless it was amended to postseason only. Ultimately it passed by a vote of 29-3.

If the score remains tied in the postseason after each team has had a possession, the game will be decided in traditional sudden death.

Recent data shows that the “problem principally” was found in the postseason overtime, McKay said. Since the current requirement for an opening-possession touchdown was instituted for the 2012 regular season, teams winning the coin toss have won 50% of the time, according to league data. That number has ticked up a bit to 54% since the league shorted overtime from a maximum of 15 to 10 minutes in 2017, but there has been a big jump in the postseason.

Since the previous playoff format was implemented in 2010, seven of 12 overtime games have been won on the opening possession, and 10 of those 12 were won by the team that won the coin toss. A total of 12 games is not a large sample size, McKay acknowledged, but it was significant enough to prompt a change.

“It’s the only postseason overtime games we’ve had,” he said. “It’s 12 years, 12 games. Those 12 games are as important to those franchises as any they are ever going to play in their history. So to us, yes, it’s not a sample size of 25 or 30 games, but it’s the only sample size we have and each one ends somebody’s season. So for us, this was something we thought we needed to change.”

Bills general manager Brandon Beane said he was in favor of the playoff-only modification, and revealed this week that he was mulling it long before the Bills lost to the Chiefs.

“I mean, I think we thought about it before when it came up when Kansas City lost to New England [in the 2018 AFC Championship Game]. I was watching that game going, man, you got a young [Patrick] Mahomes versus a veteran in [Tom] Brady and you never got to see Mahomes get his chance. Brady just took them right down the field. I think it happened in the [Super Bowl LI], when the Patriots won.

“So there was sometimes where you’re like, man, I wonder what would’ve happened if the other team would’ve got the ball. Definitely when it happens to you focus a little bit more on it.”

The Tennessee Titans withdrew a proposal that would have allowed a team to win on the opening possession of overtime if it scored a touchdown and converted a 2-point attempt. But McKay said he has heard discussion this week from coaches who will consider using the 2-point attempt in playoff overtime, either to gain an advantage after the first possession or to win a game on the second.

Owners also approved one additional rule change and one resolution. First, they made permanent a 2021 experiment that adjusted positioning in the setup zone on kickoffs that were designed to increase recovery rates for onside kicks. The tweak corresponded with a rise in the rate of onside kick recoveries from 7.8% in 2020 to 13.5% in 2021, McKay said.

The new resolution, meanwhile, changed the league’s tampering policy to allow teams to retain members of their player personnel staff through the draft. Between that point and June 30, those teams would be required to allow staff members to interview with other teams. The resolution would apply only to non-high-level executives who are pursuing a secondary football executive position.

The DB would tend to think that the advantage for receiving the kickoff would still be roughly the same under the new rule – i.e. the team taking the kickoff still gets to win the game with any score in the top of the 2^nd should the 1^st possession be tied.

We also are surprised that receiving the kickoff isn’t more of an advantage in the regular season when the clock comes into play in a 10-minute OT.

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

The Lions have let the world know they are willing to bail out of the number two spot in the draft.  Kyle Meinke of MLive.com:

The Detroit Lions might as well hang a “For Sale” sign on the No. 2 draft pick, because it’s clear they’re open for business, and their phone is already ringing.

“Yeah, we’ve had dialogue with a couple of teams,” general manager Brad Holmes told a small group of reporters on Tuesday during a break at the NFL owners meetings in Palm Beach, Fla. “I wouldn’t say it’s been a lot, but it has been a couple teams we’ve had some dialogue with.”

Of course, that’s exactly what you’d expect Holmes to say. General managers say something like it every year. Heck, Holmes said the same thing himself about the No. 7 pick last year.

“There have been discussions with other teams,” he said just days before the 2021 draft. “I will keep those in-house, but yeah, there have been discussions.”

Then Penei Sewell fell to No. 7, and judging from the Lions’ draft-room reaction, not to mention the player Sewell became, it obviously would have taken an act of God to pry Holmes’ fingers off that pick.

It’s smoke-screen season, and no general manager should be fully believed this time of year. Having said that, it is interesting Holmes also said he would be willing to complete a trade before this year’s draft even kicks off. In other words, he says he doesn’t need to see who goes No. 1 — say, Michigan pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson — before deciding whether to make a deal.

“Definitely we could pull that trade off, if the other team is willing, before the draft,” Holmes said. “I will say, even going back to last year, when we’re picking at No. 7 — because I know the question was asked, how many teams did you have dialogue with? — well, I think this time last year, it was about a couple of teams, in terms of dialogue that we had with teams. But it does increase as time goes. I would say right now, it’s still relatively early for those discussions. But I would expect for it to heat up, especially with the pick that we have this year. Because it definitely heated up, even with us at No. 7.

“So, I expect to have more dialogue.”

The Lions love Hutchinson, the star pass rusher out of Michigan, but it’s clear no matter what happens with the Jaguars at the top of the draft, they’re trying to drum up interest in a possible move down the board. And in a year like this, where there is no Trevor Lawrence-like prospect at the top of the draft, but a whole bunch of really good ones of comparable talent throughout the top 10 or so, a move makes more sense than ever if Detroit can find someone to bite.

The question, of course, is whether any teams would be willing to pay the handsome price such a move would require when, again, there is no Trevor Lawrence-like prospect at the top.

Detroit’s best chance to move the pick probably hinges on Malik Willis, the dual-threat quarterback out of Liberty. Willis is expected to need a full season before he’s ready to take a snap under center, but also has a bigger arm than any quarterback in this draft, and the fastest wheels too. No one else has his kind of upside. And in a year where the quarterback class is as weak as ever, a quarterback-needy team like Carolina, Seattle, Pittsburgh or Atlanta could grow desperate enough to move up for Willis.

“It just depends on how they value those quarterbacks in this year’s class,” Holmes said. “But I totally understand your questions and it’s valid, but it’s hard for me to say anything, because I don’t know how those other 31 teams are valuing these guys.”

NFC SOUTH

CAROLINA

Coach Matt Rhule sounds comfortable with investing his first round pick in a QB. Josh Alper of NFL.com:

The Panthers were in the hunt for Deshaun Watson before the Browns acquired him in a trade last week and that means there will be continued speculation about moves they might make at the quarterback position this offseason.

One possible route they could go is the draft and head coach Matt Rhule was at the Pro Day workouts of several top prospects before coming to this week’s league meetings. He checked out Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, and Matt Corral go through their workouts and said “they’re all impressive” when asked about his impressions.

The team plans to meet with all three prospects again as they try to figure out if one is worth taking at No. 6 overall. Rhule was asked if he thinks any of them is deserving of going so early in the draft.

“I think one of those quarterbacks will be a top 10 pick,” Rhule said, via Joseph Person of TheAthletic.com.

There’s a wide range of opinions of the quarterbacks in this year’s draft, but the views of the teams picking early in the draft will be the crucial ones. There will be a lot of talk about those views over the next month, but true intentions won’t be known until they’re on the clock.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

A big extension in Baltimore, but it is not QB LAMAR JACKSON. Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:

The Ravens haven’t had any luck getting quarterback Lamar Jackson to talk about a new contract this offseason, but they were more successful with head coach John Harbaugh.

Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti announced that Harbaugh has signed a three-year extension with the team. His contract was set to expire after the 2022 season, but he is now tied to the team through 2025.

Harbaugh was hired in Baltimore ahead of the 2008 season and he has gone 137-88 over his first 14 seasons with the team. The team has advanced to the playoffs after nine of those 14 seasons and Harbaugh has gone 11-8 in the postseason. That record includes a victory over a 49ers team coached by his brother Jim in Super Bowl XLVII.

Harbaugh is the third-longest tenured head coach in the NFL behind Bill Belichick and Mike Tomlin. He’s 27th all-time in wins and can move past the likes of Tony Dungy and Marv Levy during the 2022 season.

CLEVELAND

The Commish hints that a suspension is in play for QB DESHAUN WATSON, but won’t speculate on a timetable for a decision.

The NFL will not use the Commissioner Exempt List for Deshaun Watson. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said Tuesday that because two grand juries chose not to criminally charge Watson that the Browns quarterback is subject only to a suspension under the Personal Conduct Policy.

“The civil cases were in play over the last year,” Goodell said. “The only thing that’s changed is the criminal element has been at least resolved, and that was an important element in the context of the Commissioner Exempt List as discussed with the Players Association. So that was an important (decision as it relates to the Commissioner Exempt List).

 “If the criminal had proceeded, that more than likely would have triggered the Commissioner Exempt. I think at this point, the civil case in and of itself would not do that. If there’s a violation of the Personal Conduct Policy, that may trigger something, but that more than likely trigger some kind of discipline in some fashion.”

Watson, who was traded from the Texans to the Browns on March 18, still faces 22 civil lawsuits against him alleging sexual assault and inappropriate conduct during massage sessions. That is expected to draw a suspension under the Personal Conduct Policy, something Goodell said the league was “clear with every club” about.

Ben Roethlisberger received a six-game suspension from the league in 2010 for a pending rape lawsuit in Nevada after he avoided criminal charges in Georgia. The suspension later was reduced to four games. More recently, Ezekiel Elliott served a six-game suspension in 2017 after waging a legal battle against the NFL as he repeatedly declared his innocence against allegations of domestic abuse. He was never arrested or charged.

“The Personal Conduct Policy is something that is very important to us, so the Personal Conduct Policy does not need a criminal violation to be a violation of the Personal Conduct Policy,” Goodell said. “So they recognize that that’s something we’re going to pursue. We’re going to make sure that we get to the bottom of the facts and make sure how it applies to the Personal Conduct Policy. That’s where we are at this point. When we get to that, a decision will be made whether there should be discipline and if so what is it.”

Goodell said there is no timetable for reaching a decision on Watson, who was on the Texans’ roster last season but did not play as the team made him inactive on game day.

“Our people are working on it,” he said. “Obviously, these are serious charges. We’re looking at this seriously. We now have obviously, at least on the criminal side of it, obviously there are still civil charges that are going on, so our investigators hopefully will have access to more information and that will be helpful obviously at getting to the conclusion of what are the facts and was there a violation of the Personal Conduct Policy, but that determination will be made by a joint discipline officer established by the NFLPA and the NFL. She will make that decision when the facts are all in and we’ll see. There’s no timeframe on that.”

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND

S JABRIL PEPPERS is a Patriot.  NFL.com:

Jabrill Peppers has a new home.

The former Giants and Browns safety is signing a one-year deal with the New England Patriots, NFL Network’s Mike Giardi reported.

It shouldn’t be much of a surprise that a multitalented defender who played for former Giants coach Joe Judge (a product of the Bill Belichick coaching tree) is heading to New England, where Belichick values these types of players even more than most. Peppers can play a role in special teams as well as at safety, where he has the athleticism to play in the box and cover slot receivers. That type of versatility once launched Peppers up draft boards into the first round, and makes Peppers an ideal fit with the Patriots in 2022.

Peppers is also coming off a torn ACL that limited him to just six games in the 2021 season, his third campaign with New York. The former first-round pick of the Browns will continue his rehabilitation under the supervision of the Patriots, with whom Peppers will hope to carve out a valuable role.

– – –

Owner Robert Kraft is aghast that it has been more than three years since the Patriotswon a playoff game.  Matthew Fairbarn of The Athletic:

Returning to the postseason wasn’t enough for Robert Kraft.

The Patriots owner made that clear when meeting with reporters at the NFL owners’ meetings Tuesday morning. Shaded by palm trees as the sun came up in Palm Beach, Kraft didn’t mince words. Before fielding questions for 10 minutes, Kraft said: “I’m a Patriot fan big time first. And more than anything, it bothers me that we haven’t been able to win a playoff game in the last three years.”

A year ago, Kraft called the Patriots’ 7-9 season in 2020 “horrible.” And he is pleased with the progress he’s seen in the past 12 months. He was happy with the return the team got on its record-setting free-agent spending. He was happy with the immediate return on a draft class that included rookie standouts Mac Jones, Christian Barmore and Rhamondre Stevenson. He said that group “made up for what happened the previous four years or so” in the NFL Draft.

But a few months from his 81st birthday, Kraft is as eager to see the Patriots back on top as ever.

“After my family, there’s nothing more important to me than the New England Patriots and winning football games,” Kraft said. “That’s my passion. Whatever I can do, hopefully in a small way, to make that happen, I’m there. I’m not happy that we haven’t won a playoff game in three years. I think about that a lot.”

This offseason, Kraft hasn’t had to hand out nearly as much money in signing bonuses as he did a year ago. Bill Belichick has taken a more conservative approach to free agency, signing low-cost veterans rather than chasing splash signings. Kraft, despite his urgency to win, has no issue with that approach. Even as other AFC contenders spent the previous few weeks accumulating talent, Kraft didn’t mind the Patriots sitting back.

“I think we have a lot of young players that are coming into their own,” Kraft said. “I don’t think free agency is over. I know the big spending — remember, we have a salary cap. There’s only so much we can do in that area. I do think we have an opportunity to pick people up right along the way right down to the final cuts. That’s, to me, when free agency is over.

“I’ve seen it other years. People get all excited with the headlines now, but in the end, it’s what happens throughout the entire year.”

Kraft said the 2001 Patriots taught him a lot of lessons in that regard. Those Patriots “definitely didn’t have the best headlines, the best talent, but we had the best team and they came together.”

Though he’s not happy with the lack of playoff success in the previous three seasons, Kraft hasn’t wavered in his belief in Belichick. Questions have swirled about how the team will replace offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and the fact that Belichick doesn’t have a publicly defined offensive or defensive coordinator. But Kraft knows better than to question how Belichick is building his staff.

“I think we have it,” Kraft said of the coordinator situation. “I think Bill has a unique way of doing things. It’s worked out pretty well up till now. I know what I don’t know. I try to stay out of the way of things I don’t know. I think he’s pretty good with over 40 years of experience doing it. It doesn’t sometimes look straight line to our fans or to myself. But I’m results-oriented.”

Those previous results have undoubtedly contributed to the angst during the rebuild. Belichick and the Patriots have established a certain standard, and Kraft’s expectations match that standard. Moving on from Tom Brady wasn’t smooth, but the Patriots were back in contention quicker than expected. Kraft preaches building through the draft and not free agency, but that hasn’t changed his desire to see the team among the serious contenders in the NFL again.

“I expect it to happen as soon as this year,” Kraft said. “I think we’ve made the commitments as an organization, and I think we have a lot of talent, some wonderful young men from last year and a couple in the weeds from before. This is a chance for them to grow and come together and the team comes together. I think these young quarterbacks, the good ones in their second year have usually grown a great deal.

“I’m a big fan of Mac Jones. I see how hard he works. He wants everything to go right. He puts the time and energy. His personality is a team guy. We have a chance. Without a good coach and a good quarterback, no matter how good the other players are, I don’t think you can win consistently. Hopefully, I believe we have both an outstanding coach and a good young prospect at quarterback.”

That belief in Belichick and faith in Jones are at the root of Kraft’s optimism and expectations. He knows better than anyone how important those positions are to a football team. He thinks the scouting staff got it right with Jones and feels fortunate the team was able to find stability at that position. Kraft’s been spoiled at quarterback for a long time, but that also gives him the perspective to know what a quality quarterback looks like on and off the field.

“I’m amazed,” Kraft said of Jones. “He’s such a good person and humble. But I come in there sometimes on the weekend or early. He’s there working out or watching film or doing things that I wouldn’t believe someone with his background would have that kind of commitment given his past. The guys in the locker room really like him. All of the guys. I actually believe he has a little more edge than we’ve seen, but he’s been respectful of coming in as a rookie.

“I’m very high on him. The staff did a great job drafting him. We’re lucky to have him for our future. This will be a good year.”

Whether Jones is ready to win playoff games in 2022 remains to be seen. The Patriots have lost a few key starters since their playoff loss in Buffalo, while the Bills, Raiders, Dolphins and other AFC contenders have been adding talent. But after 50 years of running his paper and packaging company, Kraft learned he can only concern himself with what he can control.

“I can’t worry about my competition,” Kraft said. “Secretly, we’d like for them to maybe stumble. But I have to focus on our business and make sure we’re doing the right thing. And then if you do that, good things happen. I think we had a period of two decades that were unbelievable with the salary cap, and we have to find a way to sustain it and keep it going.”

The Patriots are 29-20 in those three seasons.  Nine teams have won more.

They have made the playoffs twice in those three seasons.  Only four teams have made the playoffs in all three seasons.  The Patriots are one of 13 teams with two or more playoff appearances in those three seasons.

THIS AND THAT

TRADABLE?

Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com throws out 14 vets who could be traded in the next round of deals:

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray

He’s almost assuredly staying put, especially after publicly downplaying issues with the Cardinals at a recent charity event. But don’t be fooled: there is still underlying tension here, in light of Murray’s agent all but demanding a big-money extension this offseason. If contract talks fail to ignite, and Murray goes so far as to hold out for a new deal despite an uneven on-field track record, who’s to say Arizona wouldn’t dangle the QB in hopes of securing a Deshaun Watson-level haul for its current regime, which — unlike Kyler — has been rewarded long-term job security.

49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo

He’s the shoe that refuses to drop, even though everyone expects otherwise. If it were up to Jimmy, he’d just stick around and stave off the Trey Lance era yet again. The 49ers would rather deal him, but the problem is, as they know too well, he can’t stay healthy. Look for San Francisco to hold tight and hope for another team to get desperate after a future injury to their own QB.

Browns QB Baker Mayfield

Like Garoppolo, Mayfield is a fine, if unspectacular, starter whose market is almost nonexistent right now, even though his current team would love to get him off the books. The bet here is that he’s eventually released, or dealt in a swap of picks on draft weekend.

Lions QB Jared Goff

Somehow, Goff has escaped much speculation as a potential offseason casualty, probably more because of his contract than the fact he was so-so for a bad Lions team in 2021. It’s very possible, even if Detroit drafts a new QB, he’ll stick as the placeholder. But the Lions could save anywhere from $16 million to $26 million by dealing him prior to the start of the season. Those kinds of savings might be worth it even if Baker Mayfield is the immediate successor.

Bears QB Nick Foles

It’s been a minute since Foles was even considered a big name around the NFL, but he’s proven capable of flash-in-the-pan success and is at least deserving of a clear No. 2 job, which Chicago has been reluctant to give him the last few years. Let this serve as the official endorsement of another Doug Pederson reunion, behind Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville.

Panthers QB Sam Darnold

No one’s knocking on the door for Darnold at this point, but he’s still just 24 (!), and Carolina might be happy to package picks along with the former first-rounder to unload his $18.8 million salary. You never know who might be desperate for a spot starter.

Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey

Does Carolina want to trade him? No. Is Carolina willing to trade him? Probably. Due over $15 million in three straight seasons from 2023-2025, the injury-prone play-maker isn’t breaking the Panthers’ bank right now, but with Chuba Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman also in the backfield, it’s no wonder they’ve reportedly fielded calls. Like it or not, this is a replaceable position.

Giants RB Saquon Barkley

New York has openly acknowledged the possibility of dealing Barkley, and rightfully so. Just 25 with freakish talent, he may be worth a look in Brian Daboll’s offense. But injuries have also derailed his reliability, and the Giants could use the cap space for almost every other position on their roster.

Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin

Two years removed from totaling almost 1,000 yards from scrimmage despite limited touches, Gaskin doesn’t have a clear role after the additions of Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert, who are all but locked in as new coach Mike McDaniel’s top backs. The return here wouldn’t be lucrative, but you can also do a lot worse than the 25-year-old Gaskin as a change-of-pace man.

Seahawks WR DK Metcalf

The imposing pass catcher would seem to be a long-term priority for Seattle, but entering a contract year in a skyrocketing receiver market, fresh off the Seahawks’ trade of Russell Wilson, suddenly the 24-year-old Metcalf doesn’t feel like a lock to return, especially with coach Pete Carroll using the same noncommittal language about the WR that he deployed before Wilson’s move.

Texans WR Brandin Cooks

One of the most underrated receivers in the game, Cooks has been a logical trade target for a while, offering No. 1 production on a rebuilding team, even though Houston may justify retaining him for the sake of young QB Davis Mills. A contender like the Chiefs would be wise to part with draft compensation just to rent Cooks’ speed.

Dolphins WR DeVante Parker

The former big-play standout was arguably expendable even before Miami paid up to land Tyreek Hill. Now, with Hill and Jaylen Waddle set to headline the receiving corps, the Dolphins are surely looking to recoup some assets by offering Parker, 29, who’s lost some explosiveness but remains a good-sized outside option.

Falcons DT Grady Jarrett

If you’re gonna tear it down, tear it all down. Atlanta wasn’t wrong to deal QB Matt Ryan this offseason, but the team still botched the execution. One way to make up for it would be getting something for Jarrett, a franchise cornerstone, while there’s still time. The two-time Pro Bowler is approaching 30 and would save the cap-strapped club $16.5 million via trade.

Giants CB James Bradberry

Just like Saquon Barkley, Bradberry has long been an expected trade chip. Two years removed from a Pro Bowl debut in New York after an ascendant run in Carolina, the starting cover man should have a fair market, considering the Giants would eat a solid chunk of his 2022 price tag ($21.8 million) via trade.

2022 DRAFT

A deep dive on the top QBs in the draft from Todd McShay and John Parolin ofESPN.com – where Parolin looks at the analytic stats to see if they support the subjective analysis of those who just watch the film.

We took the top seven QBs in this class — Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral, Sam Howell, Carson Strong and Bailey Zappe — and dove in on five key statistical areas. ESPN Stats & Information’s John Parolin pulled two telling stats from each quarterback’s 2021 season for each of those categories, including deep-ball prowess and production under duress. Then NFL draft analyst Todd McShay evaluated the numbers against what he sees on tape, with some additional context from Parolin.

What matches the film, and what doesn’t? Numbers don’t tell the entire story, but they help support and complement evaluations, and sometimes they can even force a scout to go back to the tape and take another look from a different angle. So let’s dig in, beginning with how each quarterback handles pressure.

Who can extend plays under duress?

Under Pressure In 2021

QB                     TOTAL QBR PRESSURED      QB       TOTAL QBR BLITZED

Kenny Pickett                 18.9                                                Ridder        87.9

Bailey Zappe                  18.8                                               Pickett        86.6

Carson Strong                12.1                                               Howell         84.6

Matt Corral                       6.2                                                Zappe        82.9

Desmond Ridder            5.1                                                  Willis                      82.2

Sam Howell                     3.9                                                 Strong        71.3

Malik Willis                     2.5                                                 Corral         42.2

2021 FBS averages: 11.2 under pressure, 66.6 when blitzed

McShay: I love doing this exercise each year because it provides a cross-check. If the numbers line up with what I see on tape, great. If they don’t, that’s when I go take another look. And while all of these categories matter, the pressure numbers are probably the biggest factor. What happens when things break down and quarterbacks have to make quick decisions with NFL pass-rushers in their face? What we see here sort of speaks to the 2022 class as a whole — four of the top seven aren’t even above the FBS average in QBR under pressure. That’s not great.

Parolin: We’ve done this exercise for the past three years, and just four of 34 included quarterbacks in that time have been below their respective FBS averages in this category — Clayton Thorson, Daniel Jones, Jarrett Stidham and Nate Stanley. So four out of seven quarterbacks failing to hit that threshold is alarming. Pitt’s Kenny Pickett led the way last season, but his 18.9 QBR under pressure ranked 34th among 125 qualified FBS quarterbacks. And it wouldn’t have ranked in the top four in any of the previous three years of this project. In fact, the number would have fell behind nine of the 12 QBs we looked at last year

McShay: I do think Pickett’s mobility and pocket presence are understated areas of his game. He can feel the pressure coming without dropping his eyes and typically knows when to get rid of the ball. On tape, he frequently hangs tough in the pocket and locates late-opening targets with pressure closing in. His game is built on throwing accurately from the pocket, but he has the maneuverability to buy time and still make a play under duress.

Parolin: Pickett’s numbers against the blitz stand out, too. And really the whole group does, at least in comparison to the pressure data. Five different quarterbacks posted a Total QBR above 80 against the blitz last season, led by Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder. His 87.9 ranked 12th in the FBS, and he threw 18 passing touchdowns with zero interceptions when seeing at least five pass-rushers. Only Will Grier (21) has more passing touchdowns without an interception against the blitz in a season over the past 10 years.

McShay: Ridder reads the field so well and has the foot quickness to maneuver. But he tends to drift backward as a response to inside pressure, and I think he holds on to the ball too long at times — which helps explain his lower number against pressure. But the quarterback who stuck out here was Liberty’s Malik Willis. These are frightening numbers for a first-rounder. Willis has excellent pocket mobility, showing the short-area quickness and overall speed to escape pressure. But then again, he took 51 sacks last season.

According to research from ESPN’s Seth Walder, Willis’ 8.8% career sack rate in college — sacks per dropback — would be the highest for an FBS quarterback selected in the first round since at least 2005 (based on college data back to 2004).

Parolin: Willis is fascinating here. No player in the country forced more missed tackles when blitzed than Willis last season (16), but the sack total suggests he took on a little more than he could escape. Willis became the second FBS quarterback in the past 10 years to take 50 sacks in a season, joining UCLA’s Brett Hundley (52 in 2012). And he did that with a Liberty team that faced one top-20 opponent last season (and he took nine sacks in that one game, a 27-14 loss to Ole Miss).

McShay: Speaking of Ole Miss, tough numbers for Matt Corral, too. On tape, he makes throws with defenders bearing down on him and has more than enough mobility, but he absolutely needs to do a better job with decision-making and ball security when under duress. Also remember that he played in a tempo-based run-pass option offense with the Rebels, and his quick release often got the ball out before a sack (25 sacks taken) but typically not very far downfield.

Parolin: Yeah, and to be fair, there’s no opponent adjustment here, so Corral being the only QB in this sample with an SEC schedule hurt him. He faced five different top-20 opponents last season, and he threw only one interception with eight sacks against the blitz. But Corral did a lot more “surviving” instead of “thriving” in this situation. To your point, Corral’s average throw distance when blitzed was 7.4 yards downfield, 100th out of 124 qualified FBS passers. And only one-third of his blitzed attempts went for first downs, 74th in FBS.

Who thrives when airing it out?

Hitting The Deep Ball (20-Plus Yards Downfield) In 2021

QB                COMPLETION %                QB     OFF-TARGET %

Zappe                  53.7%                                            Zappe       20.7%

Pickett                 50.8%                                           Ridder        27.9%

Strong                  47.5%                                           Pickett       28.8%

Ridder                  44.3%                                           Willis         33.3%

Willis                   41.3%                                          Corral          34.9%

Corral                   39.5%                                          Strong         35.6%

Howell                   33.9%           Howell   38.2%

2021 FBS averages: 36.6% completion, 38.2% off-target

McShay: I’m pretty shocked here, to be honest. Normally there are slight discrepancies when the numbers and tape don’t totally align, but there are two massive differences in this category for me. I’ll start with UNC’s Sam Howell, whom the tape says has the best deep-ball accuracy in the entire class. And NFL scouts whom I’ve spoken to agree with that. So to see him rank last in both categories is really surprising. His tape shows excellent touch, trajectory and ball placement on deep rail shots and vertical seam passes. He gets decent energy on those throws, though he has an occasional flutter ball.

Parolin: Howell ranked barely ahead of the FBS average in deep miss percentage and was the only QB in the sample below the FBS average in completion percentage. Here are the quarterbacks in the previous three years we’ve looked at who are more likely to miss than complete a deep pass: Tyree Jackson, Jarrett Stidham, Daniel Jones, Anthony Gordon, Jacob Eason, Jake Fromm, Cole McDonald, Shane Buechele, Kellen Mond, Trey Lance and Sam Ehlinger. That’s an underwhelming group, so the contrast with what you see on tape is interesting.

McShay: Howell does have issues with anticipatory throws, especially to the intermediate level. So I could see that being part of it. But yeah, this one is confusing. And on the other end of the spectrum, Western Kentucky’s Bailey Zappe dominated the deep-ball numbers. But on tape, he’s a rhythm passer who excels in the short-to-intermediate range, and he doesn’t always get the correct trajectory on vertical shots. The arm strength is adequate, but the timing is just off a bit. Maybe it’s worth another look. But you also have to factor in Zappe’s competition level and that the Air Raid system for the Hilltoppers predominantly features quick-game throws.

Parolin: Competition questions aside for a moment, we have to acknowledge Zappe’s elite company here. In the past four draft classes, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson and Zappe are the only players to complete at least half and miss on less than a quarter of their deep throws. Of the four players who aren’t Zappe, the average draft slot of that group is 4.8. Zappe avoided the picks, too, finishing 2021 with 16 touchdown passes and three interceptions on throws deeper than 20 yards. The eternal Air Raid question persists: Can this translate?

McShay: The rest seemed relatively in line with what we know about this class. Willis has the strongest arm, but his accuracy can be inconsistent. Ridder has good zip and nice touch on downfield throws. Pickett has better arm strength than he is given credit for. Nevada’s Carson Strong has a high volume of vertical throws on tape with a good deal of success. And Corral is a quick-game artist.

Which QB hits his spots the best?

Short-To-Intermediate Off-Target Percentage In 2021

QB       10 OR FEWER YARDS DOWNFIELD     QB       11-20 YARDS

Corral                2.8%                                           Corral  11.3%

Pickett              3.3%                                           Zappe 13.8%

Willis                3.6%                                           Pickett            14.8%

Howell              4.0%                                            Strong 16.3%

Zappe               4.2%                                            Willis 16.7%

Ridder               4.2%                                          Howell  16.9%

Strong               6.4%                                          Ridder  19.8%

2021 FBS averages: 5.9% short, 17.7% intermediate

McShay: Corral’s fantastic numbers here are obviously what jumps out. And this is his game. He has a snap delivery and gets the ball to receivers in the short-to-intermediate range on a rope. It’s like he places it on a conveyor belt directly to a pass-catcher’s hands. It’s automatic for him in that range, and it was really fun to see on display at his pro day last week. I’d love to see him land in a West Coast, precision-based offense in the NFL.

Parolin: On short throws in particular, he cut the FBS average miss rate in half. How elite was Corral’s short-range accuracy? There were only two other quarterbacks in this exercise over the past three years to miss on less than 3% of short throws — Joe Burrow and Jacob Eason.

McShay: This is another spot where Pickett stands out. He gets the ball out on time and knows how to lead receivers into yards after the catch on passes thrown inside 20 yards downfield. Pickett has really nice touch, especially on timing routes.

Parolin: The class on the whole measures up pretty well. The three previous classes had eight passers above 20% on miss percentage at the intermediate range, but Ridder brings up the rear in 2022 at only 19.8%. Ridder’s short-range accuracy is well ahead of the FBS average, as well, so it doesn’t appear there’s much cause for concern there.

McShay: Yeah, Ridder generally hits his spots on time and with good trajectory. But the tape shows occasional inexplicable misses within the strike zone. Right above Ridder in the intermediate range is Howell. The UNC product’s accuracy dips on anticipation throws, particularly in this range. His feet can get a bit frenzied at the top of his drop, and they aren’t always married to his eyes, which can cause some misses. His pocket-passing mechanics still need a little work.

What kind of QB are you looking for?

Pocket And Off-Platform In 2021

QB       TOTAL QBR INSIDE POCKET           QB    TOTAL QBR  OUTSIDE POCKET

Zappe   88.7                                                    Willis      86.6

Pickett  86.0                                                    Ridder     82.1

Strong   77.8                                                   Howell      78.9

Corral    77.6                                                   Pickett     78.6

Ridder   74.3                                                   Corral       54.3

Howell   64.4                                                    Zappe     27.6

Willis    60.2                                                    Strong     19.9

2021 FBS averages: 68.6 in pocket, 62.8 out of pocket

McShay: This speaks directly to Willis’ game. He is magic outside of the pocket, extending and creating. He can change his arm angle and make amazing passes in off-platform situations. And he has the ability, of course, to tuck and run, considering he racked up 1,822 rushing yards and 22 scores on the ground over the past two seasons.

Parolin: Willis’ excellent 86.6 outside-the-pocket QBR came on 143 such plays (third most in the FBS). That’s rate and volume. And Willis got it done both through the air (nine completions for 20-plus yards) and on the ground (572 rush yards outside the pocket, 56 more than any other FBS quarterback last season). He gained over 8 yards per rush outside the pocket and forced an astonishing 55 missed tackles on those plays, 24 more than any other FBS quarterback.

McShay: The trade-off is obviously his in-pocket work. He needs to develop some consistency there, and if you’re drafting him to be an effective pocket passer right away, you’re not going to get it. He can make all the throws, but he misses when his feet aren’t right. He knows it, too. He acknowledged it when I talked to him at his pro day, and he’s working on it. It’s all about marrying his feet to his eyes and driving to and through his target. Willis has to learn to trust his ball placement, change speeds when necessary and get the footwork cleaned up. There’s a lot of potential here, and there’s a reason he’s my top quarterback.

Parolin: The only quarterback above 75 both inside and outside the pocket last year was Pickett, and he was outside the pocket even more than Willis (153 plays). The Pitt star threw 12 passing touchdowns outside the pocket in 2021, two more than any other quarterback, with only one interception. Pickett also added 404 rush yards outside the pocket, and like Willis, he averaged over 8 yards per rush on those plays.

McShay: Because he’s so good inside the pocket, Pickett’s work outside gets overlooked. But these numbers spell it out for us. He makes a lot of difficult throws on the move with accuracy.

Parolin: There’s only one quarterback in this exercise who isn’t below the FBS average in multiple categories, and it’s Zappe. But his 27.6 QBR outside the pocket represents his lowest rank and the only category in which he is below the average mark.

McShay: Yeah, and we can go back to that Western Kentucky pro-style system again. He led the way here in QBR from inside the pocket, but he’s among the worst when forced outside. He saw a lot of simplified reads in college and excelled when he was able to get into a rhythm and distribute from the pocket. Accuracy noticeably dipped when he had to throw on the run, and he isn’t overly elusive.

Strong is another QB who really struggles outside the pocket, and the numbers back up the mobility issues we see on tape. The short-area quickness just isn’t there, and he doesn’t have the agility to extend plays when things break down.

What does the NFL out route show us?

Hitting The Out Route (11-20 Yards Downfield To Outside The Numbers, From Pocket) In 2021

QB       COMPLETION PERCENTAGE                        QB          OFF-TARGET PERCENTAGE

Willis                 55.6%                                                Willis      11.1%

Howell                53.6%                                              Zappe       18.6%

Ridder                53.1%                                             Ridder        21.9%

Corral                50.0%                                              Strong        22.0%

Zappe               49.2%                                                Corral       22.7%

Strong               48.8%                                               Pickett      23.7%

Pickett               44.7%                                              Howell       28.6%

2021 FBS averages: 47.7% completion, 22.7% off-target

Parolin: Yes, this is a very specific throw, but it’s a very important specific throw. On a 15-yard out route, a QB in the middle of the field is 80 feet from the sideline. That means a “15-yard out” throw actually travels over 30 yards into what can be a very tight window. Rainbow-launch angles won’t work with the sideline, and underthrows invite catastrophe.

McShay: Yeah, these require ball velocity, anticipation, perfect timing and a strong read. Quarterbacks have to release the ball before the break and get it there with enough velocity to hit the window and avoid a defensive back jumping the route. We get a good idea of a quarterback’s arm strength, delivery timing and instincts all at once. But remember to account for the receivers the quarterback is throwing to — more talent on the outside means there is more leeway.

Parolin: The sample matters just as much as the percentages here, since not every college team asks its quarterback to deliver this type of throw. Zappe pops again, besting the FBS averages in both numbers while attempting 59 of these throws last season, second most in the FBS (Fresno State’s Jake Haener threw 65).

Corral had the fewest of our group with just 22 such passes, and he wasn’t particularly accurate. Two quarterbacks (Ridder with six, Strong with five) had as many or more touchdowns on these throws as Corral had misses (five). Willis also had a smaller sample, making just 27 out-route passes, but he was super efficient. He missed on only three of those.

McShay: Yeah, it’s great to see Willis lead these two stats. He has the ball velocity to drive the ball in there. We knew the arm strength was there, but it’s a good sign to see the accuracy line up, too. He gets a ton of zip on these kinds of throws, and it allows him to hit tight windows with a flick of the wrist. And as he becomes more consistent with ball placement, he’s only going to get better here.

Parolin: What about Pickett, who falls below the FBS average in both completion percentage and off-target percentage for these throws? His sample was actually relatively strong with 38 throws. But he had nine misses and an interception while connecting on just 17 of his out-route attempts.

McShay: It’s concerning. We saw some energy on his throws at the Pitt pro day, but he doesn’t have an elite arm. These are high-difficulty passes, and they require a perfect combo of timing, trajectory and velocity. And Pickett has strong overall accuracy. But I might want to take another look at the tape in this area.

Regardless, Pickett arguably shows the most consistency throughout this exercise, and that fits what we’ve said about him: He’s the most NFL-ready quarterback in a weaker class. We don’t draft based on statistics, but when applied in the right way, the numbers can be very helpful when sizing up a group of QBs. And most of what we see here aligns with the scouting.